2024 British Open Picks, Research, Trends, Hole-By-Hole Preview | 2024 Golf Picks

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 British Open Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
00:22 New Contests
1:13 The Open Strategy & Weather + Field Notes
8:17 Hole-by-Hole Flyover
22:31 Player & Stat Research

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a experience experience [Music] experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy the 152nd Open Championship or the British Open as we call it here in North America and like to be trolled by people online listen I would put the Open Championship in the titles for everything but SEO for North America demand British Open so if you ever want to know why that is why maybe I’ll title won the Open Championship just to you mix up the system a little bit to see how that goes smash the like while you’re here by the way and use code Mayo Underdog fantasy.com you can get a deposit bonus of up to 250 bucks and we have some exciting news we’re going to have pickham contest for golf coming up plus there’s an underdog draft for the FedEx Cup playoffs so those three events you have the FedEx St Jude the BMW which is in Colorado this this year and then East Lake it’s going to be a cumulative playoffs so one round second round third round for each of the tournaments and we’re going to have a pat Mayo classic for that as well I believe it’s going to be $25 entry with 10 Max entries and you should be able to find that on the underdog app under drafts under PGA and boom we’re going to have our own custom contest for that and I’ll let you know about the pick them a little bit later on but one thing I want to tell you about making bets this week or making some Underdog plays or drafting your DraftKings Lup or whatever it is and making picks for this Open Championship wait for the weather to really materialize I looked at it today it seems like there’s no wind whatsoever we know this stuff flips uh it’s directly on the sea you’ll see when I go Hole by hole here in a few minutes the first six holes of Royal trun are directly on the water and most of those Play Down wind a lot of the time whereas the back nine which is incredibly difficult plays directly into the wind this is what makes it so incredibly difficult are those massive winds you add in some rain then all of a sudden the tournament doesn’t quite look like what we were thinking about 4 days in advance so just wait as long as possible to try to get the most accurate weather report because when we see this tournament from 2016 weather played the biggest factor of any tournament I’ve ever seen outside of maybe the 2014 Valero Texas open where one wave got completely wiped out it’s like a five shot difference between the am time T times and the PMT times but this one was even a more micro type of thing where Stenson finishes at minus 20 Phil finishes behind him I believe 16 underpower then third place you have JB Holmes who’s single digits under power you have these three guys have these two guys and then the rest but all of the top 12 players came from I think it was 11 of the top 12 came from this micro tea time within like an hour of each other Thursday and Friday where they just benefited of getting it’s not necessarily that they got great weather is they didn’t get the absolute worst weather possible which we saw the rest of the field get which took them out of contention immediately ston and Phil played amazingly especially on Sunday I highly recommend that you can just go YouTube it right now you can see every single shot between those two it was much better than watching it in real time because to seeing the compressed Clips is great and everything once Stenson starts running away it’s like it’s like the end of match play where there’s only two guys on the course that really matter and if it’s not exceptionally close it kind of lacks a little bit of drama there was a little bit of drama at the outset Phil took the lead then Stenson came back and then Stenson just started running away with it making long putts but the cut line was plus4 in 200 16 the last time it was at Royal trun so take a gander at the weather and make sure you’re tied to that I’ll have all of that information in my newsletter that is completely free to subscribe to you can get that down in the description right now or the comment section of this video or podcast sub to the podcast while you’re here leave a rating and review that you like the show if you’re thinking about leaving a bad rating don’t do that that’d be crazy only good reviews allowed over here okay and smash like and sub to Mayo media Network because we’re going to have content coming for you all week Monday pick some bets Tuesday Best Bets Wednesday draftking show Friday cut sweat live coming to you late morning my time at least so probably like I don’t know I’ll have to figure out when the tea times come out and how the time zones actually adjust but normally if we do the show at we usually do it around 5:00 p.m. my time I’m on a 4our difference from Scotland so like yeah probably like noon Eastern is when we’re going to be doing the cut sweats on Friday so I’m very excited for that uh this is my favorite Tournament of the year I love waking up at 1:00 a.m. am my time and watching the first te you get to see Darren Clark smoking some sigs as the first group out as he does almost every single year and you really get a feel for the course it’s just it’s so different than anything I really love that the Scottish bleeds into it but these courses I don’t want to say that they’re completely disimilar but there’s not much really linking the Renaissance Club to the uh The Links at Royal trun like yeah they’re both I mean this is more of a traditional link style course where I do find that the Renaissance Club is a bit of a hybrid but even when we take a more in-depth look at the course you’re going to see that these greens are pretty small the fairways are very narrow there’s gorsse bushes almost everywhere the bunkering W it’s not great there’s 98 bunkers scattered across this course the greens are Bentgrass POA weirdly enough uh then you have all of that wind influence and the rain that can come into it so really besides just being in Scotland not really much that links these two courses together and we’ve seen players perform very poorly at the Scottish open at the Renaissance club and then go and win the open Championship I’m talking to you Colin morawa who said he hated the turf at the Renaissance Club couldn’t do anything and then he goes out and wins at Royal St georgees the very next week when no one bet on him by the way so like I said for this show I’m going to do the quick run through I’m going to go Hole by hole and then we’ll dig into fantasy national.com to look at the scores to see if we can find some streaks because everyone starts on one at the Open Championship there’s no split te’s so you’re not trying to like Jerry rig it that way but we’ll see where the penalizing parts of the course are which could be a big benefact factor to us using Underdog this week so again code mayo and Underdog fantasy and then we’ll dig into the stats to try to find some sleepers we know that Scotty is good we know that Rory is good we can look back at 2016 how we can try to get the Todd Hamilton game plan from when he won here in 2004 but we’ll try to figure out the top end players going into it this week now a few different things you’re going to want to get the open app in order to follow the scores the shot tracker is not great on it but if you use the PGA Tour app this week it’s going to be about five to six hes behind so go into the App Store it’s a free app it’s the open and the great thing about the open app is you can stream the open radio network across it I spent a lot of time just watching on mute on the TV and just had the radio app going it is terrific if you if you enjoy a good accent you’re going to love Open Championship radio and it really does give you a more indepth look at a lot of these lies from around the green like their description of how the ball is buried or what they need to do shot by shot I feel like does a much better job than the telion coverage does now I’ve had shows come out for the open already uh you can check out me Tom and Jack doing our first look and impressions of the Open Championship and last weekend in a secret show it’s up on Mayo media Network right now and on the back half of the Scottish open research show Alex blickle played the first nine holes on a simulator as we got more of a sense of what players might want to do so you can watch that put in combination of me describing Hole by hole and where all the penalties are going to be and try to figure out which types of players that you’re going to want to take this week There’s 156 of them in the field as of this recording there are three more spots that are open they will go to the three lowest finishers at the Scottish open that are not previously qualified for the Open Championship the difference here is between a lot of the other Majors top 70 in ties make the cut at the US Open last month it was top 60 in ties so a higher percentage of your players are going to end up seeing the weekend presumably because it goes to top 70s you can have 80 people end up making the cuts we’ll take a look at some to make the cut parlays a little bit later on in the week once those markets actually open and see what we can do bent grass greens mixed with POA here at Royal trun in 7190 yards playing as a par 71 for now we need to take a look at the hole by hole preview before we jump into doing the hole by hole just very quickly small Fairways and greens fast and firm conditions the majority of the time there are only three new bunkers for this Open Championship two of which are on the sixth hole with the other added to the first Fairway and the sixth hole was also extended by 22 yards stretching it to 6 23 yards making it the longest hole in open history there’s nine new tea boxes on the holes but there’s a brand new tea on number 10 which introduces a completely blind shot over the gorsse bushes and those are really the main things that you’re going to want to see this week before we jump into action so once again 7190 yard playing as a part of 71 this is Royal trun number one is a power for 366 yard massive Fairways the seal the name of the hole it’s pretty straightforward it often plays straight down wind it’s pretty simple but players get the nerves in them then the opening t-shot doesn’t find the Fairway it’s not going to be an easy ride there’s bunkers on the left side of the Fairway they gobble up Wayward aggressive t- shots well poorly position shots down the left or right are going to lead to a tough approach shot because there’s bunkers on the front left and front right right of the green and as is the case with the first six holes at trun you’re going to see the coastline on the right hand side I remember the nerves getting to Bryson after he got into his first open after winning the John Deere classic quick triple on the first hole just the the moment got ahead of him hole number two black Rook is a power four 389 yards and more frequent well-positioned bunkers make this t-shot slightly tougher than the first hole the traps can prevent a player from reaching the green and two due to their severe faces accurate players however are going to be rewarded again and contack any pin position on this big green the first seven holes at TR usually Play Down R wind and off the right and they offer up scoring opportunities Black Rock no exception if you go back and watch Phil and stenen from their final round you get kind of a with no wind in play really for them you can see them just dissect this taking irons off the tea running it down hitting some wedges in and as I did the walkthrough with blickle on the simulator as you can go back and watch on Mayo media Network you can see although these aren’t quite Pinehurst type greens the greens themselves are not as big as they appear to be because if you miss on the left and the pin is on the right it’s just going to slope down into a bunker hole number three is 376 yards you just have to avoid the burn through the middle of the Fairway provided you do that and hit it down the right great birdie chance all around it’s the least protected Green in terms of bunkers but there are giant runoff areas that will funnel loose shots in to the short grass or potentially even into the longer fescue grass and then you’re not going to know what the LIE is going to end up being like you can probably play like this opening three and three under two under you can get off to a hot start at turn then you get to whole four power five 599 yards you can get there into one of the best birdie chances on the course the longer hitters are going to be able to carry the gaping bunker on the right side of the Fairway and they’ll be left with a midiron approach into a pretty big green a few of the bunkers are dotted around the putting surfaces but players would be unlucky to find their shots unplayable a par on this hole it’s not going to cut it unless the winds are so severe that it’s going to be an issue got to make birdie or Eagle I believe Rory eagled it uh in round one I forget who maybe it was Phil who ended up eagling it in round one or no he eagled it in round four in the in the heads up I think it was him all the players are getting mixed up in my head I went back and watched that it’s on YouTube by the way the Phil versus Sten in every shot from the final round at trun in 2016 Power five or power hole number five is a power three 220 yards if the fourth is a birdie opportunity this is where it gets a little bit tougher 220 On a par three players have a tendency to go left and those players are going to struggle the most because there’s a collection of pot bunkers on the left hand side a well-positioned bunker also represents the danger to the front right of the green so anything that’s tucked away towards the back right especially is just going to be a deadly pin hole number six is a power five 623 yards and shares its name with another Open Championship venue in Turnberry having been lengthened by 22 yards the last time around uh we’re going to see it even be the longest hole in championship history uh although it’s a beastly hole whenever it’s played into the wind it usually plays straight downwind and offers a great birdie chance the drive at the six is fairly straightforward but the difficulty lies in the second shot provided players get their Drive Away safely they are left with a very long approach to narrowing Fairways and a narrowing green and it’s a sudden change from the opening five holes and Wayward approaches are going to result in hor horrible horrible scrambling opportunities and the GD itself is severely undulated so not as easy as a power five as the first one you make power on this one you’re going to be fine hole number seven 403 yard power four visually stunning from a slightly raised te at a very flat course in general it’s the first one to be played directly away from the sea it’s not an overly long hole and most the players will be able to take a long iron or a fairway wood from the tea but it’s all about accuracy on this old an array of Fairway bunkers intimidating eight players from the te while the Green’s among the longest and most narrow on the course and despite its many perils if you play the whole accurately you’re going to have a short iron in so just keep it out of those pot bunkers hit it to 20 feet hopefully make your putt maybe get lucky and it rolls pretty close hole number eight probably the hole this week it’s the par three 123 yards the most famous hole on the course one of the most iconic holes in the world it’s short length but it can get you the fear comes from a number of factors including the usual headwind small size of the green which accounts for the hole’s name the postage stamp and the Deep bunkers that protect it there have been many famous moments on this hole and some Infamous ones at the same time if they were offered four pars on the postage stamp at the beginning of the week the players would take it just 12 across the three rounds you’re good to goal it only measures 123 yards but this is on with the different tea boxes the weather permitting rain permitting it could play down to like 90 yards if they really wanted to very reminiscent of that shold La Country Club a year ago but one with way more wind and way more trouble if you miss the green number nine monk sorry power 4 440 yards It’s tricky to close up the front nine and will typically signal the end of the downwind holes at trun fairly generous off the te it’s not super short and the Green’s tricky because it has runoff areas on both sides of the green but anyone who can manage to perfectly place avoid the perfectly Place bunkers to the left of the Fairway on their t-shot will have a blind second shot into the green it can be difficult to hold the wind is with you but it’s one where you can hit it to 30 ft try to two putut just get out with power and you’ll be good to go hole number 10 450 yards a par for the opening challenge of the famous back nine players will be faced with a daunting carry over a large Sand Hill with trouble awaiting any shot that is not completely accurate and depending on the T position of the day players May face a simpler t- shot and then the second shot becomes incredibly difficult played well uphill to a narrow raised surface for the green that will SWAT away any shot even a yard right you need to be on point this is going to be one of the holes that has the lowest green and regulation rate even with a wedge in your hand coming up that hill uh Power four 500 yards this is the most difficult hole on the course and probably I mean if it’s not the most difficult hole in Scotland it’s one of the most difficult in the world it’s probably top 10 it’s a significant carry from the back teas and the fairways angled away to the right the ideal line you have to carry over a gor Bush and you there’s an out of bounds to the right as well uh so you can make some big numbers on this hole and like the opening shot can vary in difficulty depending on where the te is at what the wind is and then you have shot number two that rail line is always in play and that’s always at a bounds the gors brush down the left hand side and a lone green side bunker are put into the bailout area in the process to make part at the 11th is simple you need to hit two of your best shots of the day it’s easier said than done especially considering the hole usually plays straight into the teeth of the wi and that’s where the difficulty really comes in and if you get like cross winds out of bounds most definitely in play or one of the worst lies you can think of but it plays 500 yards with the wind if it’s in your face might play 600 so you’re going to have some longer shots into this one number 12 451 yards uh this one’s still pretty difficult just not as difficult as the last two 10 and 11 with intimidating gor bushes off the T on the hole usually play into a crosswind it’s a dog leg it’s a tight dog leg Fairway and it’s really hard to hold especially if it plays firm and fast and once the t- shots away the approach is difficult although the grein itself provides the main challenge players would do well to find the surface in the first place instead of the two gaping bunkers on either side of it again this is this stretch of holes 10 11 and 12 just if you can try to make power or hell even one over you’re going to be good you need to avoid the blow up on these holes uh then you have the hole number 13 power 4 473 yards uh it becomes much simpler than some of the other ones if you find the fire Fairway because of its lack of bunkering finding the green is not easy because it’s a rais smallish green for the course um so again another one where par is probably a good score you’re going to be stealing a birdie at some of these obviously some players are going to make birdie at some of these then you have a par three 200 yards number 14 H it’s usually played into a headwind slightly out of the left and although it’s not that long at 200 yard uh you can make some big numbers here it’s incredibly important to pick the right Club there’s bunker short and the green widenings as it Longs out so it’s kind of like a you know an upside down triangle with the point at the bottom and despite the yardage par is pretty good um you can it can hit you back if you miss the Green in regulation and that’s sort of the sense you get here you want to be doing all of your scoring on the front nine if you can somehow play even power or you know beat up on the par five on the back that’s really how you’re going to end up near the top of the leaderboard I mean the fill and sense and things kind of crazy because they just got optimal conditions when they ended up getting out in their pockets of tea times but everyone else had a big problem the cut line here was plus four in 2016 I think people forget that because the winning score was minus 20 but there was only two guys double digits under power they were just way past everyone else power four 502 yards is number 15 uh it’s it’s straighter than most of the other holes where you have some Bend to it so this one’s actually pretty easier to hold the Fairway if you can hit it but there’s hazards in full view there’s a scattering of Fairway bunkers and heavy rough down the left hand side the second shot’s going to be blind and it’s going to be quite lengthy uh because of the length of the hole especially if there is going to be a headwind there’s bunkers on the left hand side there’s room down the right side and if you can utilize the contouring you can have a significant carry and you can miss the bunker that’s over there uh and you can kind of roll it up that’s the way you’re going to see a lot of the lynxy style players end up going and then you get number 16 power five 572 yards the first Power five since the sixth Hole uh you got to make birdie here especially coming in you’re usually playing it into the wind so it plays a little bit longer and it’s not the easiest hole there’s a burn that cuts out the center of the Fairway you can take driver out of your hand if you want to but some of the longer hitters are going to be able to get over that Bur burn and probably end up going there in two if you lay up in front of the burn it’s probably not reachable into two there’s a cross bunker uh it you know it’s a hit and hope strategy as long as you don’t get into it uring that most of the players are probably going to lay up to like 80 to 100 yards and it’s the most abundantly bunkered green on the course it’s a birdie chance with a short iron in your hand and a green you can hold but it does have the ability to make a few blowup numbers if you don’t hit your drive well out of the gate number 17 a par three two 42 yards under pressure as well for the 1502 Open Championship especially coming down the stretch it’s going to be critical to hit this to the center of the green if you do not hit it to the center of the green which will often be a like a hybrid or a fivewood seven wood into the wind uh you’re going to be fine if you don’t it’ll like a result a visit to the sand there’s three cross bunkers and a greenside pot bunker which is one of the most difficult up and Downs of any of the pop bunkers on the course just make par be on your way don’t let this hole get be the end of you then you have number 18 four 458 yards the final hole of the Open Championship at Royal trun three bunkers at 25 yard intervals ensure that anything leaked left of the te will be a lucky we be lucky to avoid basically a chip out penalty uh I mean it’s not a penalty but you know what I mean and further bunkering down the right hand side at driver length might persuade a few to lay up if they feel more accurate with a four iron in their hands to kind of run it up the right hand side in front of those bunkers on the right hand side from the center of the Fairway it’s a mid to Long iron well bunkered green both short short and to the right if you fail to carry the cross bunkers short of the putting surface uh you’re most likely going to make bogey at best and well anything that leaks slightly right of the green will usually bring the same result and there’s out of bounds behind the putting surface so if you do air mail it or you get a in wind at any time although the wind doesn’t really swirl here you generally know the direction of the wind coming off the sea uh the potential for a BL blow up here I mean if you can just hit a four iron run it down the right hand side get yourself the 19200 hit it to the center of the green it’s an easy two putt but you have to make sure you avoid those landmines coming in so as I mentioned before power 71 7190 yards on the scorecard is what we’re looking at for the 152nd open champion ionship passion Drive patience the formula for winning championships is also what keeps your ride or die alive eBay Motors has everything you need to 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simulator all of the stats the customizable models and you can tailor anything any way you want could not recommend this more fantasy national.com Mayo uh as I mentioned before like as we did the whole by hole you can see that the the birdie rates I mean this is Royal Liverpool so we probably should change that to Royal trun GC we’ll take a look at this right now you can see the birdie rate on the front nine like the first eight holes was very high in 2016 you had a 32% birdie rate on number four the easy power five with a 1.5% Eagle rate a 1% Eagle rate on six with a 20% birdie rate a 21% birdie rate on 70 18 sorry 18% birdie rate on number eight that’s the postage stamp hole the very short par three another 15% 14% 133% 12% and then you get to the back actually starting at nine essentially you get this run of holes 9 10 11 and 12 as we did the flyover you could notice what they would all be doing and why they play so difficult but the birdie rates on those 7% 7% 7 and a half 7 and a half 7 and A2 bogey rate 23 30 29 23 23 and then you have your double or worst rate number four the hardest or number 11 the power four that’s 500 yards the hardest hole on the course a double or Worse rate of 11% number 12 had a double or Worse rate of 6 and a 12% number 17 3 and A2 Double Or Worse rate 15 5.2 these are pretty extended numbers like this is where your tournament goes Ary and if you can find someone who can go and post a number here if it’s not a runaway like we saw with Stenson and Phil then all of a sudden you might be able to get some juicy odds because it does look like outside of number 16 which has a 37% birdie rate but only a 7% Eagle rate so it’s a birdie hole that it’s you’re going to be bleeding Strokes the the guys that play level par difficult courses you need guys that can score with their wedges early on and then can keep it the [ __ ] together on the back nine and you know that wind is not going to play a fun role in any of that so let’s take a look at some of the players in the field specifically who did well we probably want to go to the open betting odds and we take a see Rory played in that tournament in 2016 we’ll just go down to Rory looks like this Rory Rory character is pretty good we’ll see how he fares finally in Scotland by the end of the week with the 2016 Open championship and here we go we don’t have any Strokes gain numbers for it unfortunately because they just don’t do that for the Open Championship but we can take a look at the score so minus 24 Stenson minus 17 for Phil 63 on Sunday for stenson’s outrageous and a 65 for Phil like they both played great I think they had the two best scores on the do they have the two best scores on the course no 63 was shot yeah 63 by senson 65 by Phil then it was Rory who came in fifth at 67 then spe Lee Westwood troll hat and I like T Hatton a lot this week he was fifth here back then Southgate actually qualified for this as well coming off a second place finish in Munich two weeks ago we’ll see how he fares in Scotland but someone who just has historically played lyx golf very very well and then you have this like you have JB Holmes and JB Holmes was very much in the mix at Port rush until Sunday came along I think he shot 80s something on Sunday but he was paired with Brooks and Brooks did not take kindly to JB Holmes and it’s funny because he came in a tie for 67th he must have had the worst score of the day yeah JB holes shot an 87 in the final round H and he was in the second to last grouping that day so it goes from third place to t67 in one round but I was just thinking in my mind like if JB Holmes was able to do it really well could other guys at from Port rush you see that you had Lee Westwood who had played pretty well there trell Hatton had played pretty well you also had Bobby Mack pop up ROM noren JT Tom Lewis was there but at the top outside of lowry who ended up winning Fleetwood Fen out Brooks Westwood Fowler maybe these sorts of players like these are all pretty high-end players when we think back on it like the only real outlier of that bunch in my mind is like Tom Lewis even Franchesco malar he woned Carusi the year before this so it’s not like he’s some scrub who was out there he came t11 then you have like sangan Park sh Park who I don’t think is play on tour in years beergarden Lucas beard Ryan Fox another excellent links player and then you have that kind of you know cam Smith ended up winning an Open Championship as did Jordan spe back in the day Justin Rose has always played open championships pretty well he has qualified for this but the very top of the board at Port Rush was not necessarily A Who’s Who of the day but all very good players and that’s what I feel like we saw at the Open Championship in 2016 like you have some random weirdos like beef Johnson ended up there but you have Holmes who was kind of on that lesser tier down but Stricker Sergio Hatton like what do all these guys have in common besides playing in the optimal time well you have Stricker a shorter very accurate hitter who’s very good with his wedges and around the green Sergio and Immaculate ball Striker with an excellent short game as well historically not a very good putter but has puted well on these slower bent greens over in Europe it’s almost what they’ll see at valderama this week on Liv uh it’s a creeping Bermuda or creeping bent variant at valderama for the live event so I do think that well the courses are obviously not the same whatsoever the putting surfaces might have a very similar role to them I Rory’s won an open before um I I would guess that this time around and it’s all going to be weather dependent as I mentioned before that I do think that the we we should just lean bombers in this day and age this being eight years later guys hit the ball further if you hit it too high here you’re G to have some problems if there’s wind especially cross winds but if not like some of these Burns that you see like Bryson’s just going to go over them Rory’s gonna go over them ludvig is gonna go over them Victor is gonna go over them you can have your Zack Johnson types who played well or Grio who played well hey there’s Matthew Southgate again shout out Matthew South see there’s Southgate you had Tony Fina who was third Ridder Cup captain Keegan Bradley he’s up there as well another short hitter for Kevin Na and brand sniger um with great short games and that was really needed if you got the bad draw saen kelson’s another one very short hitter great short game ditto with Bill H uh you know Stricker is the other one up there along with Zack Johnson even Patrick Reed to that extent although he was considered longer eight years ago than he would have been now like stenson’s not a bomber like you just saw him take out three-wood four iron whatever it might be Phil was still bombing the ball but it’s all short game so I think you have your two sort of the the I mean I just saw that loss came back to Netflix in America so you have your Jacks and you have your locks that that’s really stening and Phil like when you think about their games Phil open with the 63 which is just crazy to think about like Phil is your ultimate feel player he’s a wild guard uh he can get wild off the tea but we know the feel of his short game and how he can really amp it up putting over time and he can just start making anything there’s no shot there’s no chip shot that he’s ever seen that he doesn’t like and then have Stenson who’s like a robot person a lot like Victor in a weird way and ludvig the Scandinavian players are very much the same like Stenson is going to hit the ball down the middle of the Fairway and then he’s going to hit a green in regulation and then he’s going to try not to three putt he is terrible from off the greens historically in his career his game kind of matches what morawa does that morawa is not super long but he’s super accurate fantastic with his irons morawa short game has improved exponentially in his P I mean not actually exponentially it’s been it’s gone from a net negative to somewhat of a positive and his putter has been going really well recently so I just feel like you have you can take your feel type players and then you can take your robot people who are just going to do the same thing over and over very reminiscent to what Brian Harman did a year ago he wasn’t the biggest hitter out there he just hit all the fairways stayed out of trouble hit his wedges well and made his putts when he had to and that’s essentially what Stenson did then he started rolling in 40 foot putts so that’s really what happened the last time around I don’t know how much we can take away from that out especially for guys that either missed the cut or got inside the bad draw like do you give them a mulligan on this one does it throw us off the sort of player that we want to see it’s hard to say to be completely honest I do feel like this is going to be more of an instinct event when it comes to betting because you’re going to have Scotty you can even see Scotty’s plus 410 to win this tournament he’s going to rate out well in every single model that you can look at so I’m looking at the past 24 rounds I have my active Strokes gain model uh which rates off the te at 19 Approach at 32 around the green at 15 putting at 13 then te to Green so it buries putting a little bit I suppose we could amp up putting just because make that 20% Then everything else is going to be uh a te green of some sort with more emphasis placed on it so if someone is very good at ball striking then they’re going to get more weighted in this model but to take a look at it you know Sheffer Rory Xander morawa hii like that that’s easy stuff right there Then you have Brooks ludvig Connor’s Bryson pheno f is an interesting case because we just saw he played well at Port Rush he played well at this tournament last time around and then you see his recent form coming in like he is the sort of player that would win an Open Championship he’s he has experience at open championships in the past like he’s a lot older than people think that may think like Tony feno he’s in his like early to mid-30s at this point you can see the chipping has been fantastic for him the putter has turned itself around the approach play has just been on Fuego all year and the drivers let him down a little bit but he doesn’t need to be a great driver of the ball here he just needs to not be a horrible driver of the ball and keep it somewhat accurate if the rest of this game can play itself out and we’ve already seen the putting woses that have come from him maybe a bit slower greens is something that could really play to his Advantage so let’s see how Tony feno has done over the years at not the mop the Open Championship so he missed the cut a year ago previous to that he had played it six times and had no finish worse than 27th with two top 10 three top I I said 18th in his debut at the open here in 2016 so at least he’s played the course coming in I think feno’s actually a pretty good look this week I mean that sounds insane to think about that Tony feno to win a major Tony fow to win any tournament seems nuts but three straight top 10 five straight top 20s two of those are major championships another two of those are elevated Signature Events and it’s been done at all different styles of courses when you look at like The Travelers the short Pete dor so was colonial obviously Pinehurst is long Memorial is long Valhalla was super long and you know he gained almost 10 Strokes on the field that week at the PGA Championship he just couldn’t drive the ball so I think as a deeper play down the board uh right now you know 31 to1 you’re going to get a better number when Monday hits so all these numbers are pre the conclusion of the Scottish open and they’re still technically future bets right now so when we get to Monday like Scotty’s odds really aren’t going to change probably actually you know what we’ll probably get them by Sunday night cu the Scottish open will conclude Midway North American time through Sunday that you know plus 410 4 to1 is where Scotty’s going to be if Rory wins he’ll go to 5 to one or he’ll drop to 8 to one whatever it might be but then you’ll see these guys like you know the rest of the guys behind like is ludvig gonna stick at 16 maybe he’ll probably go to 20 is morawa and a lot of this is dependent on how they actually finish at the Scottish this week but someone like Klay is 29 to right now he’s probably not going to be 29 to1 dude’s coming off of an injury quote unquote and skip the John Deere classic hasn’t played in a while good form coming in but he’s going to be 40 to1 45 to1 come Monday I just don’t see how that’s any different feno will probably drop to 45 or 50 to1 they really do Rook you in the Futures Market will zwa Torres is 41 to1 right now to win the Open Championship I believe he went off at 125 to one to win the Scottish open like he is going to follow to Triple digits they only boost people up in the odds market for future odds they don’t drop anyone down they wait for the Monday before because hey maybe they’ll steal your money a little bit more that way that’s why you should play on Underdog fantasy where you know you wait for the lines to come out and boom you can hit them um the lower on Fairways once we get the weather report is probably going to be my lean this week or maybe try to find some scoring on particular holes to look at but I’m going to be covering that especially in the newsletter again free to subscribe to substack Mayo media network if you just want to Google it but that’s where I would be looking here so these are the best players uh over the course of the past 24 rounds we shrink that down to a different size and we’ll go past 12 rounds just to see if it gives us someone different look Scotty’s not number one anymore what a loser it’s actually Bryson is number one then you have Rory feno Scotty morawa sunjay creeps up Xander still up there minwoo creeps up Brooks creeps up Keith Mitchell no way I’m betting Keith Mitchell stupid Keith Mitchell I mean I don’t care where on Earth it is dude can’t make a three-foot putt it’s a problem fleetwood’s still up there Conor’s uh Sergio gets a bump although Sergio is not in this event despite uh I believe this is draftking Sportsbook yeah draftking Sportsbook still having his odds on the board so they’re really just trying to steal your money for some of these guys Herman the defending champ is inside the top 20 like he is not a bad look this week Tom Kim obviously coming in hot fire right now ranks out number 21 but we can probably adjust this a little bit so here’s one thing that we can do we can take past 12 rounds and we can go down to the bottom left here and take a look at the Open Championship now you can’t just separate everything by link style courses we’ll see by state do we have England or Scotland Scotland in as a state probably not but no we don’t those are just the US states so let’s just take a look at this we can take a look at how the model rates out and you’ll probably want to use Strokes gain total for this because we don’t have strokes gained approach numbers from the open championships so we go to the average Strokes gain total over the past 12 rounds who are the best players in the field for the Open Championship in particular well you have Cam Young Brian Haron John ROM Jordan spe Rory mroy Victor cam Smith Colin morawa Fleetwood and Alex Fitzpatrick after that other names that pop up Louie is back in the field for his first major of the Season Louis has been playing great all year long on live and the DP world tour to end last year where he got picked up win in South Africa it just he didn’t have any more exemptions to Majors he didn’t play any of he didn’t try to qualify for the US Open and he turned down his sponsors exemption from the PGA Championship to play because I don’t know he wanted to ride a tractor in South Africa or something but he’s playing this week he’s won an Open championship at St Andrews in 2010 I just I think that he has the right kind of game here he is the sort of like field type player to me and someone just like on Instinct being like he’s having a great year when you think about what Louie does well he drives the ball accurately I mean sometimes on the 17th hole at Tory Pines he hooks it a bit left and goes out of bounds and loses the US Open to John ROM but other than that you know he will be lingering and we know that he can get hot enough with his irons and his Putter and His short game is pretty solid that he can continue to go around and he’s had success at open championships even Fowler over the course of the past 12 rounds Matthew Jordan has played pretty well uh will zot torus did well on his one appearance at the open Connors [ __ ] AB aner detri is someone to look at he’s been better at the Scottish open than the Open Championship Bobby Mack is another one uh the gala has played six rounds he’s played in two open championships so far he was someone that I was giving an eye to at the Scottish didn’t end up getting there so we’ll see how he ends up doing at that tournament he was t34 two years ago at St Andrews and he missed the cut last year I don’t think that St Andrews has a ton to do with the rest of the courses in the open Roa to be perfectly honest I would kind of it’s necessarily that I would throw it out but it’s also not one that I would point to be like these courses are similar St Andrews is not the same as any of them uh even though it plays a bit on the shorter side you can’t attack off the tea at Royal trun like you can at St Andrews inless like Bryson finds a glitch in The Matrix and he’s able to do it but like he would be the only guy doesn’t really apply to everyone else it’s not well it might be a wedge Fest a lot of the time there’s just far more danger lurking around Royal trun than there was the last iteration that we saw at St Andrews when guys were basically just driving the green every single time what else do we want to look at here so those are the best players at the Open Championship over the past 12 rounds the worst guys that Phil is up there hogi has been really bad Tiger’s been bad Sheamus power Russell Henley Keegan Bradley Sun J Patty Harrington Keith Mitchell of course Keith Mitchell because he’s sucks Sam Burns Kitty Harris English Neeman Neeman is now 0 for 19 for top 10s in major championships in his career although his low ball flight I do think is going to come in handy this week we’ll see if it happens but I where he’s never done it before this is the best he’s ever been playing is this year and I do think that he has the right type of shot shape for this course especially with those like low oh even iron Stingers or he won’t even have to hit driver a lot of the time but even if he wanted to hit driver he could because he might keep it out of the wind a lot of the highball hitters excluding Phil really got caught last time around in that bad way like once don’t you throw the ball up into the air Jason day style it’s all over for you it’s just going to blow to who knows where it might blow out of bounds it might blow into a bush that you can’t hit out of whereas keeping the ball a bit lower to the ground seems to be the more preferable play at royalt TR when the wind is up again when the wind is down guys are just going to take target practice at this place it’s just going to come out accuracy where you want to lay up to and how well you hit your wedges it’ll turn to the John Deere classic real quick uh hopefully that doesn’t happen this time around if we just take a to look at all major championships cuz I think there is something to that as well just who has played well at major championships over let’s say the past 36 rounds hell we can do 24 rounds that should give us what 12 12 no we want to go 36 give us the past two and a half years for most players of how they have performed in major championships we’ll turn it to average Strokes gain total shocker Scotty Rory ludvig Xander zalot torus that’s even with a miscut from ludvig obar at the GA Championship he’s still third in Strokes gain total versus the field in major championships Xander zalatoris Fleetwood havin Klay Alex Fitzpatrick in his four rounds Mor C see there’s Louie Louis still up there cam Smith Bryson ROM cam young there Shane Lowry again probably gonna have to give Lowry so so far we got Lowry and fena boy do I have a card full of losers this week fineberg is going to love my picks if this is where I end up settling Matthew Jordan minwoo Kim SM Harmon Hatton I do like Hatton as well let’s jot down that name I mentioned Mora CWA earlier I’m not betting all these guys but I want to make a short list of players that I really like this week Brooks I could see I mean he got a start on the challenge tour over in Europe it wouldn’t be crazy to think and we saw him pop up near the very top at Port Rush as well if this does play more difficult I could see Brooks having a really good week he’s 30 to1 right now unless he wins at valderama which I wouldn’t expect him to do he’s not like increasing by any means on the oddsboard people are kind of off the Brooks train at the moment uh worst players in major championships who are I suppose in the field at this time Darren Clark Peters has been really bad tiger Phil yeah all the old dudes Willet has been pretty bad so with schwarzel Matt Wallace has not been great we’ll get the full field updated once the full odds are released and the finalized field comes through on Sunday evening so check back then again fantasy national.com Mayo to get that in you so let’s see if we can try to make a mixed condition model and really try to play this out to try to figure out the course conditions that we want to have I’m just going to reset the entire page and see if we can find some gems all Louie was another guy on that list so low Louie feno Hatton and morawa the group of non-winners but now I mean you should probably throw Fleetwood onto that list although I just assume he’s going to be very popular so scoring relative to par let’s not go to that right now greens these are bent grass and they have a POA mix so we’ll just include both of those click on bent click on POA and go through it’s more bent than po but I guess it depends on what time of year it could be a bit POA overseed they’re not as fast uh as you would normally expect you can see it’s been about average hitting Fairways so we’ll throw that one on right now the green speed at the open Champion tends to be like average but you know we’ll go average and fast uh just to keep it that way to give us a bigger sense of what’s going on right now power 71 we don’t really care about that we have we’ll call it 72 to 7,400 yards only because I do think the wind makes it play a little bit longer than it is and that’s what we’ll go to for right now so those are our conditions green firmness I mean it should be pretty firm to be perfectly honest but there’s only 26 cases of all the different things that we have going on right now so we’ll probably take that one out of play and you can see at the top here that we have last 24 bent POA hitting Fairways average green speed average to fast I think we have average to fast do we just you always want to make sure no because we want to throw fast onto that list and then we’ll throw 72 to 74 onto that list as well there we go now we have everything that we need to have this time around so average hitting Fairways average to fast BM POA okay so let’s go to the average and we’ll go to Strokes gained once again dietre by the conditions actually turns out to be the best player now that’s only in two rounds we can scale this down a little bit if we want to Tom Kim Thomas Peters Klay Scotty ROM zures cam young Cam Smith Dustin Johnson troll Hatton shley Neeman day spe we’ve seen spe’s name come up a bunch of times and he I mean was he 55 to one to win right now he has not been good at all although he has gained in two of his past three starts on approach the driving has been great all year long it’s the putting shipping and irons which had been a disaster but maybe getting him over to a place like this I want to I I kind of wish that we could see more link style play but I do think that it unlocks something in speed his like Bizarro creativity that he gets through uh Lowry McIntyre ludvig answerer morawa Clark there’s feno sunj Scott Sith tiger the Gucci man who’s not playing but you know Hideki horel Ricky so that’s what we go if we take a look at putting on these surfaces you have horel Xander St stuman sink Lowry Rah day Hatton are all up there spe and Windam Clark and cam Smith unsurprisingly are all up there as well approach play on courses like this it’s tiger and then it’s morawa and Tom Kim Tom Kim and morawa are probably two drops in the same bucket as it pertains to accuracy and irons and what they’re able to manufacture around the green just taking a look at pure TAA green it’s tiger I mean one of these four rounds from with these specific things you had the Northern Trust from 2018 for three rounds the Dell Championship from 2012 is what we’re getting from Tiger some guys you need to put some context to as it pertains to the stats um but let’s try to scale this back a little bit we’ll take out the putting stats we’ll take out the hitting Fairways we’ll call it average and difficult Fairways and we’ll get rid of the green speeds and we’ll just keep yeah we’ll keep those two and we’ll keep the courses from 7200 to 74 yards and see just really what that tells us and we’ll call it average or difficult scoring it was difficult all the times last time I could see if there’s like no wind whatsoever then you know we might be able to get an easy scoring day but I just think that there’s too much if it plays that firm and fast guys are going to roll into bunkers and absolutely screw themselves up so just remember that that’s in play for this stuff as well there we click difficult click apply filters so there we go uh scoring relative to power average difficult 72 to 74 and now we can see over the past 24 rounds who rates out really well Scotty Xander Hadi ROM havland Mora Cowen Neeman Clark Hatton a lot of Hatton coming up on this list a lot of will alatus coming off this list I want to see how he performs in Scotland coming off the back injury that made him withdraw from Detroit Louie pops up again JT Poston who played really well in Scotland a year ago and did make the cut at the Open Championship last year is now up near the top of this list you have Fleetwood ludvig Willet Klay stupid Keith Mitchell Sam Burns Day sewo sah Rory English so not all the names that you would necessarily think of because you know there’s no this is the first time we haven’t seen feno on any one of these list although he’s still averaging eight Strokes per round against the field underneath these specific condition itions so that’s another fun one to go look at as well in conclusion not at the top of the board so you’re Scotty Xander Rory morawa ludvig Bryson Rah Victor like those guys are in a category by themselves after that tier we’re looking at Lowry fena Hatton morawa and Louie from that similar range we didn’t see a lot of the lower names because a lot of them haven’t been loaded into the system yet but I do want to get a sense of what some of the guys are doing at the Scottish Genesis open just you know keeping good form coming in Matthew Southgate would be at the very top of that list for me to look at I mentioned Ryan Fox Ryan Fox is an excellent Lynx player so is Robert McIntyre there’s not a lot of like random American players that just happened to be good lyns players but if there was I would take a look at some of the Texas guys it’s why Scotty is you know a pretty good play this week for a guy who’s as accurate off the tea as he is can hit a low ball can hit a high ball he has that creativity he’s like you know spe on steroids essentially what Scotty’s game Peak spe then on steroids is currently what Scotty is doing with his creativity around the greens but even from that lower class like Jordan Smith has always performed really well on links if valami can find himself in this tournament he’s another really good link style player so there there are guys that you can look at in order to do it like Hatton is probably the very top of that list along with Fleetwood just players that have played really well in the Alfred Dunhill challenge in the past probably a good time to bring that up it’s a proam and you can see here are the some of the players that have played there’s Matthew Southgate was a runner up last year to Matthew Fitzpatrick and Ryan Fox and Southgate finished a three Strokes back of Fitzpatrick Ryan Fox won the year before that Ryan FOX also won at Wentworth and you had noren I mean noren’s probably a pretty good look here this week as well will it Victor Perez who is in this field Southgate came second that year beard who we saw pop up at Port Rush uh Hatton won this in back-to-back years in 2016 17 with Fleetwood in Hatton game second to beard there as well thorbjorn olison has played these well Fleetwood Rory now you don’t get all the best players from around the world you see look there’s Brooks Brooks 2015 came in second in this tournament Martin kimer uh Brennan Grace who’s had some runs at Major at open championships in the past and W Us open until his ball didn’t get lucky anymore you see a lot of the sweds pop up here norin Yim langren is another one which you just would be surprised that name would continuously pop up or pop up whatsoever so that’s one of the tournaments you can look at you can take a look at some of the other Scottish style courses that you see on the DP World Tour going into it but this is the one that I would look at the most that has some of the bigger names at it that is more of a link style course where you have somewhere like Wentworth which is like a perland Treeline place it’s not links whatsoever so those be the few places I’d look at and some of the names I’d gravitate towards especially near the back end maybe Victor Perez is the guy to go with at the longer odds or cheaper price on DraftKings to round out your lineup you know unless it gets too popular then you don’t want anything to do with that guy tons of shows this week as I mentioned every day this week culminating with the cut sweats live Friday probably around noon eastern time in America one Eastern or one Atlantic my time and then what is that 5 o’clock over in Scotland uh it’s all going to be on Mayo media Network you get all the podcasts on demand on the pat Mayo experience all this information is down in the description 20% off at Fantasy National by using fantasy national.com Mayo Cod Mayo at Underdog fantasy will get you a deposit bonus up to 250 bucks we’re going to be firing off plays that’ll be great because we could do some work in the evening you can just put them in wake up and maybe you’ve already won money in your Underdog P all right I’m Pat Mayo thanks for watching I’ll see you next time P Mayo experience experience