LIVE Drafting Best Ball Mania 5 On Underdog Fantasy | With Chris Wecht

Join hosts Graham Barfield, Mark Garcia as they welcome Christ Wecht on Best Ball Breakdown! Discover the secrets to drafting the perfect Best Ball Mania 5 lineup on Underdog Fantasy and claim your spot at the top of the fantasy football leaderboard. With expert analysis and insider tips, this episode is your ticket to victory. Tune in now and dominate your competition!

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[Music] what what why you shaking your head you’re [Music] welcome yo what is going on welcome back to fantasy points best ball breakdown we’re here ripping a best Ball Mania draft tonight I’m joined tonight by Mark Garcia at high low and Mr projections himself Chris wet coming out of his projections whole this summer projecting the entire UFL uh and now we put him on the entire NFL and we’re gonna be drafting to team tonight Chris as always the guest takes the reins on the show so we’ll be uh in your hands tonight what’s going on man I’m doing good uh yeah I’ve been deep in the sheets staring at numbers all day every day moving guys Target share up 1% down half percent you know just just losing sleep over these these minor tweaks that game’s about to get real hairy here in a couple weeks oh yeah yeah yeah the real bullets are going to start flying here in training camp in a couple weeks uh yeah training camps start next Friday super exciting uh yeah how how much sleep have you lost over tinkering over route shares for uh for receivers and tight ends and and all that stuff well it’s it’s funny cuz you you know you one day you’re like all right let me let me redo the Packers and Jaden Reed will come down a little and Wicks will go up a little and then the next day I’m like no it’s got to go it’s got to go back and then it all it all basically comes out even again yeah that is uh it’s just the way of the tinkering but yeah Chris has been doing a great job uh with projections this off season super excited for that super excited for this draft we just filled here and I think we’re going to be picking at the back again yep 11th this is a fourth straight show I think yeah looking at the back uh we those ones for a while and then yeah we used up bro we used up all our ones in the uh in the may may period yeah uh it’s good though it’ll give us plenty of time to chat uh going through the 11th spot Chris what’s your first thought like picking from the back half of the first round this year uh it’s definitely gross I mean after I’d say like after AJ Brown is like is like the this is the teardrop for me of of where I want to be picking in the first round and you can basically do whatever you want after that like I don’t think I don’t think doing any combination of Gibbs Garrett Wilson Marvin Harrison Drake London alive Adam like yeah I I’ll probably I would probably just want a bunch of different combos of the of that tier of guys around here and you have puka ahead of AJ brown right so it’d be puka AJ Brown be the end of that tier right uh yeah yeah yeah nice yeah think makes sense and that’s what Mark’s been saying that’s what we’ve been saying all offseason it’s just like don’t be afraid to get weird here once you know once you feel like the tier drops off and I think everybody kind of agrees it’s AJ Brown and puka uh we’ll see if we can get a little weird tonight in this room we’re ripping BBM again if you haven’t deposited on Underdog yet this season you want to get into some drafts use code fantasy pts get yourself a $5 standard subscription and a deposit match up to 250 bucks on Underdog uh all right so we’re ripping through first five picks I got to say it was really nice having the like 15 and you know 10 15 second clock going back to the 30 second clock I feel like I’m in stone ages right now it was really nice yeah I I hope next year they give us some more options and we have a 15c clock for BBN that would be ideal did you guys try one of the 10 seconds on a stream yeah I maxed the 10 and then I like I got got worn out and I couldn’t Max the 15 and the 20 yeah we didn’t do it on a stream we should feels slower the cont yeah the contest filled so fast but I like it I mean honestly I’m you know it just kind of makes you plan out your picks a little a little more but I mean we’re already doing that as it is and uh yeah who who doesn’t want to rip a draft in 20 seconds you know or 20 minutes I mean yeah uh all right Chris tier died PUK is gone adri Brown’s gone what do you want to do uh let’s do Let’s do let’s do Drake London I think I’m I’m I’m kind of getting excited about the the Falcons just running more plays in general all right nice I like it to get a little little different here too uh we’ll talk through London here in a second once we get through this turn um all the Vibes just seemed really good Kirky seems fully healthy you know coming into the off season a lot of puff pieces about how he’s been super prepared for the season uh and obviously any increase in play rate is huge see we get back here uh so now I usually like taking one of the running back here I don’t like doing it first in case you get boxed out at receiver yeah um but like now i’ I’d be fine with either Gibbs or Taylor all right well make the call man Gibbs or Taylor what do you want to do here you want to go uh let’s let’s do let’s do Gibbs then all right we’ll go Gibbs nice I don’t have much Gibbs I’ve been going Taylor over Gibbs but uh talk to me about Drake London talk to me what’s got you excited about Falcons and you know their pace and play rate and stuff well it’s no secret that you know Arthur Smith is gone they they were like they’re pretty clearly going to run probably I have at like 64 plays per game uh and their pass rate going up like five anywhere from five to somewhere between five and probably like 8% I at 60 right now they were down at 55 last year they were down at 48 and a half in 2022 like the volume is just going to be massive and that doesn’t even factor in like catchable targets right um like Ritter and Mariota were just so inaccurate um like didn’t not even giving guys like London and Pitts a chance and now you get Kirk Cousins who is one of the more better or like in terms of catchable b ball right one of the better QBs like he’s they’re just gonna have so many more opportunities yeah yeah the pace I think even if even if cousins is like 80% what he used to be like the pace and play rate is just going to be so much higher uh for Falcons and you know we give London 25 26% Target chair uh that’s going to look pretty good um Mark where where you at on Falcons I I know where you’re at on on Rams we’ve talked through Jets a ton I don’t think I’ve asked you too much about Falcons what what are you doing with with London in the back half do you think the Price Is Right youve been drafting a ton I have not been drafting him a ton but when I get these back half picks like the 10 I guess 10 11 and 12 um after AJ Brown which he is AJ Brown is actually my tier break don’t have puka in tier one um just because obviously it’s hard to have him in tier one when I have I do um but so for me when I get like when I get to this back half I’m kind of mixing and matching like all these tier two wide receivers and I typically am going very wide receiver heavy here um just because of the opportunity cost discussion um like a a jir Gibbs what does he have to do to make it so like you had to have him in this back half or the early early half of the second round like he’s got to finish like rb1 um whereas some of these wide receivers because now we’re in like wide receiver 10 through 18 one big tier two um any one of those guys finishing top five at their position is a little bit more valuable based on the just the overall meta of the how the drafts are shaking out right now so um I’m kind of just like Drake London’s a piece of that so I’m not like overweight I’m not underweight um so like everything from like pukaa for me all the way through like Cooper cup is like one massive big tier right now so mixing a lot of those guys here yeah that makes sense man um yeah I I’m more with you I don’t really have a ton of Gibbs uh I have a little more Taylor just because he’s you know what’s going later in ADP uh but yeah I’m typically I’m typically taking two receivers in the back half Year too and I’m I’m with I’m I’m completely fine getting absolutely bizarre you can really do it over uh on DraftKings as well uh get a little weird uh in the back half but we’re about to come back up little Mike Evans coming a little later than ADP at 29 tank Dell just skyrocketing him and Diggs have like basically C uh crossed adps now yeah another one that Malik neighbors and Cooper cup have kind of flipped here over the last week and a half or so yes they have yeah neighbors is is coming up a little bit here um all right we’ll uh yeah Diggs Diggs is still there right now yeah Diggs and Dell have basically converged to now to the point where Dell is you know almost a coin flip to go ahead of Digs at this point yeah neighbors has crept up as well uh what do you think that is Mark just people buy more buying into the rookie hype well I don’t actually neighbors has come down a bit um Cooper cup has started to trickle up Neighbors has come down a little bit um which is interesting to me I’m starting to get lot more neighbors um after I didn’t uh early where I was just like hammering Cooper cups easy okay I thought you were saying that the other way all right uh real quick Chris we got 15 here I got PCO and etn at the top I know you love them any of these receivers here Pickins uh Christian Kirk would probably be my highest rated or Cooper either one all right we’ll go Kirk saved it there at the last second we’ll come back figure this out I was hoping one of like DJ Moore dig or Devonte Smith like one of those guys would make it back to us and then you could take peo but I don’t want us to get two Barry receiver here yeah yeah that’s the other thing about this spot at 11 is like you know if you do take running back like we did you kind unless unless one of those guys like DJ Moore Diggs Falls like you kind of can’t get caught out here and Dell’s starting to scream up same with Z flowers uh all right so he went etn leor what do you think here peo um go another receiver yeah I don’t know what do do you guys think we’d be have a hard time if we win PCO because he would definitely be my highest rated guy yeah I’m okay personally all right all right we’ll come back and probably do two more receivers at the turn yeah so like this is a weird area in the draft like the back half of round three the beginning half of round four where it’s like how much better are the receivers in this range than the receivers at the 5 Six turn it’s like I mean from a weekly range of outcomes perspective it’s pretty close so like I don’t mind getting quote unquote like caught in this running back pocket right here well I mean if it comes down to drafting more Isaiah Pacho I’m completely fine with it uh who’s your you say uh wonder if hard kns has something to do with neighbors ADP probably that’s probably a little bit of it yeah dude’s a baller you know little bit of rookie hype coming up um cup has come up in ADP a little bit too though Mark I’ve noticed that he’s up a few points since open uh but yeah I wanted to to talk through Texans you know we didn’t get Diggs uh Chris one of the biggest things we’ve been trying to figure out with projections it’s just like what to do how we’re projecting out Nico and I kind of like your opinion we’re a little lower on Nico uh I I want you to like outline you know why that is and how hard it is to kind of project this group you know with Diggs and Dell in the mix I mean because when tank Dell was healthy last year him and Nico were basically earning the same amount of targets yeah I hate this question I feel like this is the question I get asked every every time someone asks me to talk about the projection oh you do [Laughter] projections um I have them all pretty close I currently have Diggs leading in Target share but it’s like by half a percent over Nico um I could I’m starting to think maybe Nico should be a little ahead of Diggs there but again it’s not going to be by much I think Dell is definitely the third guy but he’s also probably the most efficient one let me see what I got their um yards per out run looking like yeah yeah I’ve got I’ve got Nico at like a 2.3 yards per out run tank at 2.1 Diggs at 1.9 um I think Diggs is going to benefit a lot from not having to be that main guy and the offense a lot um we have been doing uh some stuff that’ll be on the data Suite pretty soon um with separation charting and Diggs still grades out really good in that um Nico looks awesome in it tankal does too for that M like they all look good in it so I I don’t think anybody should be projecting any of these guys to be like the clear leader and it’s probably just going to come down to like who scores the most touchdowns and I I don’t think we can really project that number super well right now yeah it’ll come down to touchdowns and it’ll come down if somebody gets hurt because if you know if Diggs gets hurt you know Dell’s just going to smash Nico will be a stud again um I I think the kind of like the you know the bell curve of like CJ strout is a king maker you know the sharp saying CJ strout’s a king maker the donkey saying CJ strout’s a kingmaker then everybody else is just saying how many how are these all all these guys gonna get all these targets it’s like no dude they’re just gonna trade off there’s also like there’s also room there in the Houston offense for like Bobby slowick to be a better play caller like you look at their first down rush rate last year it was like your your play designs are awesome but your like situational play calling has a lot of room to grow so like if that takes a step forward too like there’s some upside there yeah that was the one blind spot that slowick had is that he did call especially with Stroud balling late in the first you know second half of last season way too many first down runs yeah uh Colby in chat says digs in the slot’s goingon to help the old man honestly I mean I think all three of them can play in the slot I think Nico is by far the least likely to play all the slot but Diggs moving and motioning inside and I mean just think I mean they’re going to be an 11 personnel probably more than you they’re top five you know SL is from the Rams you know yeah the coaching tree but at the same time I mean they just have such a diverse group of weapons like Chris was saying even Diggs at this like diminished skill set is still like an 80th percentile separator uh you were mentioning tankal tankal might be the best separator in the NFL our our data would make that argument I mean it’s just it’s probably just you know CJ stad printers go Burr again this year uh um we Brown actually had a higher routes run per dropback than Nico and Dell last year in games they they were active for yeah and that’s the other thing is they can just do that you know they they like rotating and now they can they just have three really good guys to do it uh speaking of three really good guys we got three really good players coming back to us here if we could somehow squeeze through uh one of these receivers um one guy who’s been screaming up in ADP is Rashid rice I think people have finally caught on to the projection so hard dude I loaded up man loaded the hell up um all right so we kind of got caught out at receiver again here no way am I taking Xavier worthy uh Chris what what do you think though we got Hopkins I think Hopkins yeah I got him at the top with Kirk as well yeah I like that little week 17 there uh and then we we’ve got plenty of QB stacking options at this point not going to have like an elite guy probably but I’m I’m perfectly fine with that and this will probably be a three quarterback team the way we’re building right now um go receiver again or you could do pits yeah I was just putting putting him in there this is the other thing about taking receipt receiver at that second pick uh after London because we got one guy here who might sneak off all the way back that would have been nice never mind uh basically it comes down to Rashi de I got Deontay up there too uh yeah they’re they’re definitely a TI break but we could we could probably do pits we’re not going to have to take a lot of running backs in tight end we could just load up a receiver yeah all right PS yeah we’ll double stack I’m good with that get a little pit also helps that also helps because we just talked about this is probably a three quarterback build yep so we got getting that Elite tight end yeah it helps to keep yourself from getting boxed in you know yeah uh because pits is the last I guess Ingram did he go already no I got Ingram ahead of they’re all the same same tier I have Ingram and Pitts ahead of or Ingram and KD ahead of pits but it’s all very close yeah KD doesn’t project as well but just the contingent upside with him especially at this ADP man like if Debo or gets hurt just he’s gonna smash it’s funny you say KD doesn’t project well it’s like even the last if we just go like the last two years and look at his games with more than 15 PPR points or 15 half PPR points or more like he leads the league yeah in a spike week game like this the spiked weeks the spiked weeks are the major aspect he doesn’t project well in the sense that like when Debo iuk and mcaffrey have all been on the field his Target share is like 16 to 18% yeah just really really hard to like force him up I mean you can do it on efficiency which he’s definitely known to do I mean he leads the league in yards per route run like almost every single year he did it again last year um yeah it’s just hard to get him a truly insane Target share with Debo and auk there you think an injury to Debo aruk wouldn’t be as big for him this year though with them drafting piol it’s definitely fair piera’s piera’s mainly an inside guy but I know Brett thinks he can be a you know inside out side guy so that’s that’s a fair point it’s a fair point but KD’s just so damn good there’s just like you know if you remove one of their Top Line receivers like the the ball will funnel his way more he just yeah he just has to do so much in the offense too just you know beyond being a good receiver I mean I think look at what they’ve done with the skill position players that they’ve drafted in in San Francisco like auk was not this year one massive guy like they they take time to develop them so in my opinion with like I coming up on his his contract season like he peaw was their project in my opinion um or at least that’s more within his range of outcomes than like thinking of him as the direct aak replacement or the direct like Debo replacement playing inside if one of those guys gets hurt um so I think there’s still I think the the field is probably overstating the effects of peol in that like he probably is going to be less involved this season than the field seems to think and I think that includes with an injury to one of those primary guys yeah they play a lot more two wide receiver sets just in general because use check plays so much you know they uh you know Shanahan’s obviously master of you know changing up looks for fitting different you know different schemes and you know different game plans for different defenses but uh yeah they’re probably going to be bottom bottom of the league again in 11 personnel I I don’t really see a path for piol unless iuk or Debo gets hurt you know kind of like we were outlining uh man these these running back adps are really starting to slide here it it’s getting kind of borderline crazy cook goes 61 Rashad White’s now going into the 70s Ken Walker’s slipping a little bit too I think that makes sense with Walker I I really think he needs he needs an injury to shanet to like really really Crush uh and then you know basically you know this whole pocket from 80 to 95 is like stuck this whole summer it’s been great yeah uh last year Niners were second from last in 11 personnel usage at 39% Falcons were the only team lower at 17 so I mean I don’t I don’t see playing much yeah you might need a Kyle yuse cheek injury too yeah the the one random contingent fullback injury in the NFL that’s needed for a guy yeah they did allow two of their like backup slash blocking tight ends to walk this off season to so yeah the the just wrapping up the kid conversation the one thing I do love about him is he’s like just like Mark Andrews you know he’s like a Bell cow tight end he just doesn’t come off the field his route chairs just continue to go up the last three years basically um let’s see what uh we want to do here Keon kind of I’m not super crazy about Keon but is a nice little spot for what do you think Chris uh he would be my next highest ranked guy I don’t love him on a non Buffalo team but we kind of need some swings here at receiver all right yeah it was it’s either him or J here and then we just have this massive of green yeah who else has even left a receiver it’s j and then we got Josh Palmer in the way next way way next year you guys think you can build like functional teams like going for running backs but from this pocket like these are all guys that like you probably used to go in the three four turn like two years ago and now maybe even two I think you can take four of these guys and stop you could I mean seriously you these we you want to take Aaron Jones at 86 here I mean it’s not horrible or we can take J or go upside with Brooks this is really interesting actually I like Brooks less Jones all right two early by we running backs yeah that’s a good call Mark really good call we really proba one more guy right yeah two at most we’ll stop at five at Absolute most um so really yeah going back to your going back to your point Chris you can absolutely just take a shotgun to this this this range from like 75 to 110 get four of them and basically be done I’ve I’ve been doing that a ton especially since the the adps man they haven’t really moved if anything they’ve just shifted back yeah they’ve been shuffling yeah they’ just been like shuffling between them it’s hard to break out of that you can get like you can get like an elite QB an elite tight end three or four Elite wide receivers take four of these running backs and just and then be done like I I don’t know if we have ever really seen anything like that it’s like weird cuz it it feels wrong but like I think like like a team with Rashad white Kenneth Walker Stephen ra Andre and Aaron Jones should be fine yeah what when you say it feels wrong what what’s like the gut feel for you that that feels off you you just feel like you’re chasing those Dead Zone backs but like in a different ADP pocket is that what it is yeah just the like if if somebody tells you like in previous years I took only four running backs and they came from rounds seven through 11 Goa you’re like well that can’t be good yeah you probably two years ago that’s Jaylen Warren Tony Pard pre like when Zeke was still there and um you know Rashad Penny last year was going in like around 11 at one point like there that used to be a horrible group yeah sadly I was I was on on some of the penny stuff last year was good I was I was chuckling to myself over here I was like damn it yeah that was that was a good time I it was like a it was like name I have not heard in a long time yeah he’s kicking around on the Panthers practice squad though hey you make the team you want Mark you want to run it back one more time we could do it on DK we got the 20 rounds no no you’re you’re right though and this year we’ve been talking about it all all all offseason it’s this entire tier is grouped together they’ve stayed grouped together really the only guy I’ve seen come up is Robinson I think people are finally coming to the realization that Austin Eckler probably won’t have a huge role but Chris like we’ve talked about the the biggest question I have is if Eckler plays in The Red Zone a time because that would like Nuke Robinson if he’s just like the early down back on a bad offense like not getting much goal line work and Eckler gets that stuff like that’s gonna be Rob thank you for saying bad offense I appreciate that well we I mean come on man like at the end of the day we all want you know bullish things out of you know all these rookie quarterbacks but it’s more than likely only one smashes and it could be the commanders it’s more likely going to be the Bears yeah uh you have uh what do we have here or Drake May is that what you’re gonna say p yeah I was gonna say that dude Drake May might be really good mobile like you see the hard clips of him on the board too I was [ __ ] on Drake May for a long time and then some of the discussions that I had offline um kind of opened my eyes to the fact like why is there this like eight round gap between Drake may and like so my kids screaming in the background that’s awesome no it’s a good it’s a good sign it’s a good sign like Jaden Daniels and Dr May it’s like they should probably be going closer yeah I Brett’s gonna start week one he’s probably going to start week two then by 50 I think it’s like a coin flip by week three it’s it’s yeah I don’t know I think it’s going to be longer I really don’t think they’re going to roll them out there that quick I I have a i pret at four games I think I might be a little light right now okay um uh we’ll pick this conversation back up what you want to do here at nine is La how do we not take BR yeah you want to take BR yeah how do we not in the 10th I don’t know I don’t just don’t know how we I I agree the values awesome but I just don’t know how Burton and then we’re done we did our job here jine Burton don’t you think in week 17 or something if burrow is what you needed someone’s gonna have burrow plus Chase or Higgins 100% burrow at like just that far past ADP like I’ll talk about it here in a minute yeah there’s also like the I hear what you’re saying Chris but like what if burrow scores 35 in week 177 and no one else scores more than 22 you know we don’t have Chase or Higgins sure but we do have the nuts quarterback I hear what you’re saying though um all right what are we thinking here at the turn Tai no it’s the same buy uh Cooks I think would be fine cooks or dubs yeah I’m in that I’m in there either yeah either one so picking up that like Joe burrow discussion I think we as humans want to control more than we can reasonably control um we’re like creature creatures of habit we like the way I put it in the article that I just wrote is like we like to drive the same way to work every day we like we have our spot on the couch um we don’t like feeling uncomfortable so that feeling of like well what if Joe burrow or like how does Joe burrow become the player that you need we like to we like to assert control over that situation in that like well he logically he would be what you need if either Jamar Chase or t Higgins or like or like one of the things that a lot of people are missing like there it could be um jerbo with like one of the running backs or like like both running backs score a touchdown and T Higgins scores a touchdown and Jamar Chase SC scores a touchdown and then like tight end room gets in the into the party like Joe burrow throws for six touchdowns but like no one gets more than two like that is a a potential within the potential like weekly range of outcomes does that happen in week 17 if the guy that you need like no idea but that like that’s what kind of goes missed and the other like piece to that from a theoretical perspective is like this calculation of expected value when we’re sitting here drafting like we’re trying to maximize EV we’re trying to remove variance we’re trying to like we’re trying to control what we can control right well like EV takes out variants and it also assumes an infinite sample which like we don’t we know we don’t have this season but like if we’re talking strictly about EV we also have to realize that like the EV equation takes into account so many variables and all of those variables are going to change at each decision point which is each draft pick so it’s like there’s so much going on that we like cannot calculate right now we have no idea um but like with all of the variants now thrown in what’s like and we’re sitting here in round 10 and we have Joe burrow sliding 20 picks past 80P like closing line value versus ADP is part of the EV equation but we still can’t like visualize we we we don’t know because it hasn’t been calculated at what point does like closing line value contribute more to EV than team Stacks or week 17 correlation or you know all the other things that go into EV so it’s like it’s this weird we it’s this weird spot that we put ourselves in where we’re immediately like ew no that seems gross like I’m not going to take Joe burough when he picks past 80P in the first 10 rounds um but like the truth of the matter is we don’t really know we don’t know what is more beneficial to this roster construction from an EV perspective because there’s so much stuff like going on so like that’s the theoretical answer um me when I see like somebody fall that far and and knowing that like closing line value versus ADP is inverse logarithmic it’s it’s import to us in that like later picks getting closing line value like getting a 14th rounder in the 17th rounder isn’t as important as getting an eighth rounder in the 10th round so to speak so I don’t know it’s just like there’s so much going on that like sometimes that you just to me anyway you take that loow hanging fruit I don’t know no it I’m with you in the sense I’m with you on a lot of that I’m with you mainly though is it’s just a way to get unique too like there’s just this is a massive freaking tournament there’s so many variables that we don’t know like you’re outlining this is a a way to get a little a little weird and sure theoretically you’re right it’s probably minus EV to not have Chase or Higgins but like like outan man I mean what if what if bro throws four touchdowns five touchdowns and no other quarterback throws more than three yeah plausible we know it to be suboptimal to not take to take Joe burrow without one of those guys but like that is a dip in EV can you make up for that dip in EV by doing some of these other things like taking Joe burrow 20 picks past 0p in the 10th round potentially like we just don’t know just don’t know is the same Joe burrow we’re projecting to currently lead the NFL in passing touchdowns Chris by the way some great guy does their projections I don’t know he does a good job with them uh I agree with that take Lawrence here right yeah we we’re gonna take three quarterbacks anyway most likely uh so I think so you can you can get away with it now I think if you with bro and Lawrence uh same byy week 12 but oh yeah you’re right yeah but we can uh we can definitely figure that out especially with this team we got PS yeah we got three great running backs um also getting Lawrence in a unique manner here uh 14 13 spots past ADP um yeah see this this room is like anti QB which is great I would love worked out for us it worked out for us here on this corner because uh sometimes you get caught out yeah worked out for this team too because we got three uh three good backs Downs I mean yeah sure that’s it here that’s the last one it’s either him or Legette or your boy Pierce all Mark We’re not gonna do that I I love his name once I’ve clicked his name once I think it was with with me and we were like spot past yeah I do like Downs though man I like our projection on Colts by the way it’s good segue into Colts because I I think we’re going to be a lot lower than ad Mitchell on ad Mitchell than most sites um I want to ask you Chris like first do you think Downs plays outside when they put get into two wide receiver sets or do you think it’s going to be Mitchell um I it’s definitely initially going to be Downs okay um like even remember Alec Pierce played outside a decent amount for a while last year until Downs really start go got going um but Downs got up to over the last five his last five games he got up to 72% of the routes so that’s it’s basically that’s what most top you know most top receivers are in that 70 to 80% range so he’s he’s not really coming off the field doesn’t mean that Mitchell won’t ever work in into wide receiver stuff but I I didn’t take the Mitchell draft pick as a sign that they didn’t like down what Downs did at all yeah someone was really close um I mean they were really close man in first N9 games of the Season Pitman was ahead in targets ahead in production but not not by much and then Downs he had that knee injury never was really right he tried to play through it and then he just his efficiency fell off and his role kind of fell off uh he’s actually kind of like I think a sneaky injury by low like I think he’d be going around earlier probably if he didn’t get hurt last year just based on his bulk production um and then you know if we’re right and we’re just you know DS plays a little more than Mitchell especially in in 12 I I got to figure the Colts are going to be pretty heavy in 12 personnel with all the damn tight ends they have they better be with all the tight ends they have they just they like all these mid tight ends it’s like Seattle with running backs yeah yeah all uh oh man Burton’s gone dang we maybe should have there H yeah we probably should have yeah damn could take a take um what mik Kiki yeah yeah um I think the Mitchell pick was the just the Alec Pierce replacement like Pierce still ran like 80 over I think he got up to 89% of the routes in the last five games I just don’t think they I don’t think they want that anymore yeah Pierce was the cardio King last year um yeah I liked Pierce a little bit just because he was like their only big body deep you know down the field threat for Richardson to throw up to but yeah he’s he’s not good separation stuff Chris is not not good on him at all yeah um Mr scampers is there any world where siken rewards Alec Pierce for all his running last season maybe maybe maybe he throws him like an inzone fade give him a touchdown uh yeah I doubt it I’m With You Chris I think they just want someone who’s actually athletic um out there uh all right we’re gonna come back 2361 honestly a lot of like my favorite roster construction every for every draft I want to be at like 1361 in almost every draft 2361 bro is a little little funky uh yeah cousins just one too yeah uh so do we just stop at these two QBs then or do we take an L just take the L and uh for the B don’t have right we don’t have like to do it at quarterback it’s tough at quarterback because you’re it’s it’s basically 20 points what do you guys think yeah get there hold on all right what do you guys think about dialing up a little Broncos action not here we can go de Mario Douglas here take another receiver or he can finish out running back but we can go bonick as the last quarterback or will Levis we don’t have any other I probably like Levis the most and I’m not I’m not a huge Douglas goty I think he’s fine but if you really like him we could take him uh okay he’s probably the best one of this tier though isn’t he yeah he’s the last of this tier really uh we can force in Levis here I’m I’m good with that this next pick he’s not going to go here at this corner just be done at quarterback I’m not risking uh what the what did the Ridley team take uh well we can’t assume rational drafting but I can look yeah but if they’ve got he’s got Allen and Kirk so so he so he’s he’s probably done push Lis isn’t that the same bu yeah I I’m with you uh Mark with the name you said by the way yeah it’s a be fine it’s an interesting interesting setup to take like three Falcons without Kirk um and you’re kind of leveraging like Bon if Bon goes down now you’re getting a leverage on another first rounder yeah there’s another back I’d be okay with here too we could stop yeah I mean Al I mean bejan going down could also help be a reason that London and pits are as good as they are too that’s a yeah that’s a fair point all right we’ll go AER here and we’re probably done we could we could do a four running back team with Gibbs peo Jones and air um Colby says I probably have too much l us this year same dude me and Mark it’s not too much me Mark have both been pounding this this table man uh the projections just look so good for the Titans them coming from 31st and early down thr rate so like at least top 10 is just massive for them yeah uh we definitely have a funky build here that’s for sure I you know Mark you’re talking about getting out of comfort zones I’m all about it uh especially in a game where we don’t know anything I I go into draft just and you know I feel like you almost have to go into every draft humbled a little bit just real realize that something crazy is going to happen and just open your mind to those possibilities but you’re right yeah Falcons Team without cousins is really unique we we could get a little weird with Bengals too I don’t mind maybe PN is starting at the end of the year we don’t know yeah yeah there you go um you could actually it’s not the worst idea if like you take momes or something you go like Mahomes and pennx not I don’t think I would take you’re you’re most yeah you’re most likely punting maybe Josh Allen or somebody with a later by Lamar Jackson though yeah yeah no you don’t you don’t have to I mean Kirk dude Kirk is like the consumate qb1 16 you know what I mean like he can funnel the ball to to London and pits but like score 19 points and that’s just your typical Kurt Cousins he throws for 280 and two touchdowns and you just hope those are you know the pits in the pits in London um Chris is there anybody in this like pocket from like 140 to like 160ish that you’ve been pushing up uh drafting more of as of late um see here not let’s see no one’s really jumping out to me that the I I’m like kind of struggling this year I feel like there’s not a lot of guys that like in these these last few rounds where I’m like oh they’re a slam pick like I I wasn’t I wasn’t on puka and Kiron super early but there did become a point I think in August where I was like all right you gotta start drafting way more of these guys yeah um CH was that other guy last year for me like I was drafting him a ton in the back there’s there doesn’t feel like I don’t know I don’t know if we just haven’t gotten that like those those blurbs yet that we remember from last year but not there just like a lot of I don’t know I’m regularly getting to like round 18 and I’m like I don’t like there’s not a a ton of guy Trey sur’s a guy I do like to click um trying to think of who else I’ve been clicking recently in that yeah I just uh I pushed Trey Surman way up in the last best ball update yeah he should be going way higher as a as a handcuff yeah it seems like they’re they’re gonna actually try to give him the job first you know Evan Hull’s a fifth round rookie who’s coming off major knee injury you know know sur’s never done much but it’s not I kind of like at Perry but I’m not like obsessed with him um I actually this is actually one I do like if you’re if you’re doing a three tight end build I really actually like Theo Johnson the rookie for the Giants like there’s talk of Daniel Bellinger like not even making the team and like Theo Johnson may not even be he’s he’s not even drafted all the time I see him drafted here and there when I don’t take him but like he’s gonna be a super lone guy and maybe the starting tight end Chris where do you have um how did uh what was it how did Darren Waller’s retirement affect your Wale projection well I was not I was pretty confident that Waller wasn’t going to be playing for them so I started assuming he was not going to be on on the team let me yeah but for Wale I do take fifth running back Ray Davis here or do we do we take I’d rather take Mims yeah this guy’s got three quarterbacks we’re gonna pray to God he does not take a fourth with Lis I said earlier we can’t project rational drafting here we go here we go this is the test right here our ADP value on our QBs is about to be sick ridiculous yeah it’s sick and we I have an idea for for Bengals get a little weird in the last round let’s go thank you very much sir or ma’am um but yeah I’ve got wandale about at a 70% route share which he was a little above that to close out the season but more than a 65% all if you look at the full season um I didn’t really his Target sh actually have coming down a bit I like when you add when you drop neighbors into this offense and like he’s just he’s gonna eat up so much of the volume that I think Waller coming out doesn’t doesn’t do a whole lot for Wale um I just think they’re going to scheme up Neighbors the same way that they would have done um Waller like those shorter ad do targets um but I still wandell is still my yeah he does have the second highest Target share on the team for me yeah I was kind of thinking the same that like we didn’t see any movement in Wale’s like ADP after Darren Waller it was like yes we we assumed that Darren Waller wasn’t coming back but like after he was like yeah dude I’m gonna go make music we’re all just like nothing happened um and he makes that kind of like Wale’s a guy that like can run similar routes to a towering tight end in that he creates mismatches with the the like the Defenders that are going to be covered ing that position so like from dime he’s going to mismatch against like the slot Corner um he’s going to mismatch against safety he’s going to mismatch against linebackers on crossers um so because he can like do so much in that first five yards off the line of scrimmage um so I don’t know he’s like a guy that I was just kind of like yeah he’s on the Giants he’s like the the gap between neighbors and Wale like from primary to secondary option in the offense is so massive I was just like wondering how you saw that like the he his best casee scenario is probably like Isaiah McKenzie’s best season with the with the bills like that’s pretty much the role he’s playing he’s probably a better version of it so like yeah maybe there’s a little bit more ceiling there but like Marvin Mims could could be like a huge value Michael Wilson same thing Malachi Cory same thing like I just don’t think one the World War One Dale is is is the 16 rout pick everyone wish they take is just I think like smaller than yeah these other these other guys here especially especially in half where TDS matter a little more you know out five 5.3 that’s rice yeah I’m hopeful that Rice gets downfield looks now that they have actually boundary receivers to get open but uh yeah yeah that’s another that’s another conversation for another day um so we need another tight end I want to bring this up here before we get back lay it on us man uh it’s dead so the thing is we need another tight end pits has the week 12 by I would and Thomas I swear don’t take me off air for saying this giki makes sense however they have the same buy do we want to go 3483 we could I think it’s feasible yeah what is it 17 how many receivers do we have eight this is a funky little team it is very this this got un Ed a little bit yeah we got we got to talk this through because I mean it we can take so from to from an advancement rate perspective the pick at tight end here is probably Colby Parkinson yeah like he does very little else to the team um but again that’s the discussion of like we don’t really know what like what that equation is yeah I was thinking him or gelani who just went I didn’t want to mention him but yeah it’s Pro that’s him or Theo we could take your boy Theo with gaseki uh I mean Pitts is a pretty big like upside swing a tight end as it is like we don’t we definitely do not have to take two tight ends or three tight end I mean we don’t we don’t have to take anybody with burrow but I do hate the giki pick like I wouldn’t be shocked if if Dre sample or either of the rookie tight ends are more but I also do hate having an unstacked burrow so this is a tough one yeah it’s it’s the be it’s it’s the worst of worst worlds I guess um all right we’ll take Parkinson here I guess yeah I think that’s the right move yeah I do like Parkinson like I feel like our path to to Winning is we want burrow to go off but only in weeks 15 and 16 and then in week 17 yeah we need one of the Titans and and Ja Sho out do we take like a flyer on Andre y yosias or irn well that was my that was my last Galaxy brain idea for if we if we didn’t want to take three tight ends is that we take yosias yeah and take nine wide receivers I don’t hate it yosias gives you two outs right he theoretically gives you javar chase or t Higgins going down he would yeah it’s then it’s then but there’s I don’t I don’t know who is g to play we don’t really know who’s going to play in the slot if it’ll probably be a lot of Chase actually yeah and then if Chase were to go down I’m not really sure what would happen so like maybe that’s how yosias is what you need small sample stuff too but he looked pretty good in our separation stuff as well yeah he wasn’t bad honestly all right we we’ll do that and get really freaking weird 3492 uh with back in yosias Bengal stack uh this will be a very unique team at the very least we have a unique team um Chris great stuff man uh we got training camp around the corner uh I I love this time of year uh real news is going to be coming out we’ll finally have some ADP shifting uh Chris thanks so much for joining us tonight man good draft yeah no problem it’s fun yeah great stuff man we will be back back next week on Thursday Thomas is uh very very excited that we didn’t take Thomas in private chat he says death taxes and Graham trying to shoehorn in and Bangals tied in yeah yeah we tried to do that with ir Smith last year it went as about as well as the uh the cadarius Tony last round stuff uh from last year Justin Ross last round stuff from last year uh yeah had to have poer Kiren last round uh period last year uh we’re going to try to make a million bucks with this team and and if we don’t we’ll see you guys at the top of the leaderboard what what why are you shaking your head you’re welcome [Music]