John Deere Classic | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data – DFS Golf & DraftKings

The TOUR heads to TPC Deere Run in Sivis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!

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SHOW INDEX
0:00 Intro
1:16 Course Preview
5:00 10K Range
11:05 9K Range
14:22 8K Range
19:41 7K Range
24:57 6K Range
29:15 Custom Model
33:01 Outro

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what’s up guys Rick here with a preview for this week’s John Deere classic and two very important announcements right out of the gate first off the Wednesday live chat for this week is early 900 a.m. eastern time with the holiday I’m traveling I’m not going to skip it so we are going to rock at 9:00 a.m. eastern if you want to go over to that room right now and drop your comment uh or question I’ll do my best to grab those throughout the week and then we’ll start with those on Wednesday and the other announcement is we’ve been doing such a good job of filling the listener league on Splash that they have upped the number of entries so now the full guaranteed purse is $6,000 just a hair over that whether it fills or not and quite frankly John Deere classic the week before we go to the Scottish open it’s a holiday week Patrick Klay has already withdrawn you might get an overlay on this one uh I hope not because if we fill it we continue to get bigger ones but hey if you get a little overlay that’s good for that’s good for everybody so go and uh get involved in that the link is in the description it’s a tear contest as it is each and every week okay let’s turn our attention to the John Deere and Jump Right In TPC dear run here it is in all its Glory this is my website rickun good.com everything you see from this point forward will be from rickun good.com here we go it is uh dare I say the the words dare I say birdie F no I’m not going to say that I think it’s probably an overused statement but here is what we’ve got in terms of the regression model here’s what the numbers say the numbers say that accurate drivers of the golf ball have much higher correlations to success over the years than other stat profiles and other golf courses now you think off the top of your head Steve Stricker Zack Johnson sep Shaka yep yep yep that all checks the boxes and you’ll see there are some other uh secondary stats that also show a lot of Highly cor uh High correlation to success and they are also what I would say are accuracy or good driving metrics those would be consecutive Fairways hit by itself not a very good stat driving accuracy we already talked about that one left rough tendency um by itself not a very good stat but when you put that with the good one driving accuracy and look at them all together it starts to tell a story that playing out of the Short Grass has been very very successful in terms of getting you to the top of the leaderboard then you also see consecutive Greens in regulation so you’re you’re talking about accuracy off the te uh a decent second shot and then let’s see how many putts that you can make if you take all of those stat metrics from above and you run it for for everybody in this field over the last I don’t know let’s try 24 rounds this time we can figure out who gets the best adjusted fit based on their own stat profile so for the last 24 rounds uh the best player or the best adjusted fit is Aaron R and it’s pretty significant you know close call last week at the rocket mortgage he’s been playing Great Golf I’m sure we’re going to talk about him quite a bit and he picks up about a stroke per round at this golf course I’m sure that was a lot bigger than what it was last week at the Rock and mor um Davis Thompson we’re going to talk about him is next Kevin U sep straa sunj M yeah these all make sense then you get Keith Mitchell Mac Meisner Patrick Fishburn Sam Stevens as a reminder that this is still a John Deere classic we had a couple of big boys uh withdraw this morning so there there is uh an opportunity for a lot of different golfers to win if you look at the advanced metrics the reason that you are going to get uh this is kind of it’s a little bit of a unique situation you have a lot of guys who play out of the fair right I mean the the the driving accuracy percentages are are are large right I mean routinely over 65% often into 70% in terms of Fairways hit but the uh the caveat to that is there there is a pretty big penalty for missing the Fairway uh because you have so many guys that are playing out of the Fairway when you miss it and you are in a spot of bother that can hurt you more than a third of a stroke uh to the scoring average on nearly every single hole and a lot of them get upwards closer to a half stroke every time you miss the Fairway so um you’re seeing all of this picture be you know uh cleared out based on the correlation metrics based on the adjusted fit based on the actual numbers of of how often you’re going to hit the Fairway and the penalty and when when you miss it and and we are going to look for some fairly accurate golfers and let’s go there right let’s jump into the cheat sheet and see what what’s going on first and foremost if you haven’t heard yet Patrick Klay withdrew Cam Davis withdrew Taylor Montgomery withdrew they all withdrew after salaries had been released so we we have a couple of empty slots in this pricing uh Patrick Klay was the most expensive golfer now Jordan SP is and there are four golfers over $110,000 spe straa Sun JM and Aaron Ry it’s actually a pretty fascinating group of golfers on this course um Jordan SP who has had such a bizarre little year he’s driving it great outside of The Travelers Championship the second shots are starting to be Troublesome and then of course he has for the most part lost all touch with the flat stick which is super crazy and something that we thought we would never have to say about Jordan spe he’s won this event twice yet he has not played here since 2015 and I can assure you 2015 Jordan Speed is a much different golfer than the one we are getting uh This Time Around in 2024 9 years later I’m overall pretty worried about Jordan uh from from what I understand the wrist injury that he has been nursing uh is probably worse than he’s leading on and it is a problem with his game and there might end up being a procedure done on this at the end of the year um but I don’t know how I can look at these metrics uh and and feel comfortable rostering Jordan spe in any significant way outside of just a complete Boomer bus scenario you are in a oneandone in which you need to make up a lot of ground and you’re just going to take the favorite at low ownership if you want to do that with Jordan spe fine we’ll see on Wednesday what his projected ownership is going to be if he comes in super low TBD uh and you want to throw a couple of darts that’s fine but understanding what you’re getting yourself into I I think that there are better options here uh I probably don’t need to spend too much time on sep straka he is our uh defending champion and I would argue he’s probably playing better golf now than he was at any point during uh the year in which he won last year he he’s I mean look look at this run since the PLAYERS Championship 16th at the Players 16th at the Masters three straight top 11 finishes uh um two of them being Signature Events then backtack t5s at Charles Schwab in the memorial a top 25 at The Travelers in which he has now gained ball striking in a significant way in nearly every single one of those events I mean this is just a golfer who is taking his game uh to a completely new level he’s second in terms of driving accuracy this year he hits it well out of a lot of different proximity buckets he rarely three putts uh despite not being a a great putter he’s just a hair over average for the season but this is a guy who’s brimming with confidence who’s going back to a place that he’s that he’s won at I I guess he he’s probably never defended before right I think that would have been his only win was was John Deere let’s check uh oh I’m sorry I overlooked his uh 2022 Honda Championship win that’s right Shane Lowry melted in the rain there so he defended Honda in 2023 this is his second title defense I I suppose okay so um sep stro is there I think he’s going to be pretty popular the next two I think we’ve got to do a little bit of of deeper Dives on so we’ll start with Aaron Ry Aaron Ry was In the Heat of the battle did not have his great stuff on Sunday for for the vast majority of the week last week he was Fairway green Fairway green Fairway green he had this really um this really high floor because of that and didn’t play as well on Sunday he still grinded it out those last four players the last two groups did not play particularly well in general Aaron Ry falls short and finishes in a runner-up position look at the ball striking okay very accurate very good ball Striker he has been working on the putting he’s got a new coach I believe he’s got some a little bit of a new uh equipment he’s gained eight Strokes eight Strokes putting in his last eight rounds that includes the US Open and the rocket mortgage he will be pretty popular though I I think that because SE straka is here to eat up a lot of this ownership you’re you’re unlikely to have a lot of lineups that start straa and Aaron Ry so that might leave Ry just a little bit lower than you would expect I’m I’m happy to run him back out there and then I’ve been trying to be a bit early on sun JM you know we are slowly but surely seeing signs of him turning things around and what I like about it is he never lost the driver he continues to drive it well he’s starting to get more positive compared to what he did at the start of 2024 on the second shot and His short game has always been very very good um and now the results are coming back so he did miss the cut at the PGA he did miss the cut at the US Open and he did miss the cut at the master so he has missed the cut at the first three legs uh or the first three major championships here but uh a major championship this is not at at at TPC Deer Run and outside of those events he’s got a 12th at Harbor town a fourth at Wells Fargo both of those were Signature Events a ninth at Charles Schwab eighth at the memorial that was a signature event Travelers Championship T3 that was a signature event so I’m I’m not as worried about those uh miscut it Majors like whatsoever when it comes to sunjay and he’s played here this will be his third trip played here in 19 finished 26th played here in 2021 finished 47th nothing to write home about and it’s been three years so not the greatest in the world but I I’m trying to be early on sunj because I I think I see certainly where we’re trending the 9k range really fun I have spent so much oxygen on Davis Thompson over the course of the last couple months and it is certainly coming to fruition T9 at the US Open T2 at the rocket mortgage I I think I said at some point uh earlier this year I maybe I said before the US Open you know he’s going to win one of these rocket mortgage or three open or John Deere classic type events he almost did at the rocket mortgage are we flying too close to the Sun is this too good to be true he’s going to be incredibly popular I don’t think it’s quote too good to be true because he has a really good Baseline of the T green play he hasn’t lost there since uh the Valero Texas open was the last time that he lost Strokes from Tia green he has a phenomenal pedigree we’re going to continue to run out Davis Thompson ad nauseum the the interesting pivot or if you wanted to to uh conceivably start your lineups in the 9k range which I don’t love but if you wanted to do it McNeely and Davis Thompson would be pretty interesting MCN finished 44th at the rocket mortgage he lost three Strokes on approach but that’s something that he hasn’t done since the Honda Championship he’s usually been a positive player on the second shots and he’s one of the best Putters in the world t7 at the Canadian open t17 at the Charles Schwab and if you look at his John Deere classic history um it’s it’s very very good T8 here in 2022 t18 in 2021 and then he played here a while ago t7 uh 2017 he finished t44 so we’ve got a lot of uh good course history on a on a course that should fit him well a golfer who’s playing Just worse than Davis Thompson and Denny McCarthy and some of these other guys but with with similar levels of upside he’s probably going to be fairly overlooked the guy that I was probably most excited about an unfortunate I don’t know what happened here but Sam Stevens got the $9,000 price tag I was ready to just smash this into Oblivion when he was $7,000 and I don’t know who the sharp person at DraftKings was that figured this out and said no no no we’re actually going to price at 9,000 because I think it’s deserved um you know he’s T10 at the rocket mortgage uh T2 at the witch open which is a coron fairy Tour event T14 the Canadian open those are his last three throw in uh you know like he okay what I like about him is look at some of these some of these events you’ve got to make just a ton of birdies at right any corn fairy event the Myrtle Beach Classic that’s where he played well rocket mortgage played well there and you’re going to need something similar again this week if we dive into his stat profile for the year he’s not as accurate as I would like him to be off the tea but he does pick it up in in a couple of other areas and I just really like the improvements that he’s making has a very very good stat profile I bet him at I think 90 to1 last week maybe maybe it was 70 70 or no it might have been 90 to1 and I I so I was expecting a much cheaper opportunity to get in on Sam Stevens uh I will apply a little bit of caution because of that price tag but it is um still somebody that I’m I’m going to have a lot of exposure to before we jump into this 8K range I will show you the course history here so this is the course horses Tool uh or tab on the Holy Grail tool and I’ve got this set to just a minimum of 12 rounds Jordan spe that’s uh 2.2 Strokes gained per round over 16 rounds but remember those last one is in 2015 so actually if you did want to just put um you could go just back to I don’t know 2019 last five years Lucas Glover becomes number one 14 rounds 2.23 I I worry about him but you get you know Brandon Todds here 1.7 Strokes gained per round he’s 7,300 we can pull up his profile and in a second um he he was making a little bit of noise last week at times Mark hubber is here he’s probably the guy that I I want to spend a little bit more time on 1.6 Strokes gain per round over his last 12 but we’ll start with Nick Dunlap and again another guy that we’ve we have talked about a lot this year I I believe and I I’ll say it again he was thrust into professional golf earlier than he was ready because of the win at the American Express he could not pass up having his tour card and I agreee with that decision and it just kind of got away from it right you know one week you’re going to Alabama you’re thinking about your classes and all then all of a sudden you are a professional golfer at the highest level and that I think it kind of rattled him as it would anybody but we’re now starting to see look at this profile just change over time from a lot of red to less red to a little bit of green to a lot more green and you’re seeing the Talent start to break through now 8.2 Strokes ball striking at the Rock mortgage he lost a stroke in a half around the greens and still finished T10 he played well at the memorial much more difficult field and Golf Course than we’re going to get this week he is uh capable of going so low right we we’ve seen that plenty of times through his young career really like the way Nick Dunlap is trending here’s Mark hubard Mark hubard I find so fascinating and was he on the adjusted fit where did Mark hubard I maybe I’m thinking of his name somewhere else or maybe I’m thinking of somebody else’s name I I don’t know what I’m thinking about but I thought we were going to get a pretty good adjusted fit from hubard because his course history is good so let’s do that first T6 last year t13 the year before that t41 in 2021 and then he didn’t play uh back before 2017 so here’s the interesting interest interesting thing with Hubbert he is a pure grinder you know he has not missed a cut since the RSM classic he has not missed a cut in 2024 okay so he’s a pure grinder he gets the most out of I mean he’s clearly not as talented as the Scotty shefflers of the world and the Patrick HL right obviously right but this golf course is is one where um he is not necessarily at a disadvantage when a lot of weeks on the PGA tour he’s kind of at a disadvantage but now he gets to lean into some of these strengths about being accurate off the tea and being a very uh accomplished Putter and his birdie or better percentage is still inside the top 45 on the PGA tour and in this field it’s probably like ninth or something you know what I mean he’s just going to make uh a ton of birdies so I I like the way that he sets up I’ve gotten eyes on him a couple of times this year and I’ve I’ve always been impressed because I think he played with I think he played with Scotty around or maybe Victor around at the PJ Championship I don’t know he’s just like he’s always been around I’ve been following his groups a lot and I I I’ve always been impressed with how he’s played and now we get a a good golf course for him and one with good course history if you want to buy Lucas Glover that’s on you I understand the course history he is not really the same guy that had those two wins at the end of last year 2024 hasn’t been good for him um he lost the putter he’s not even hit get as well anymore lots of concerns here yeah maybe he finds like maybe he pulls a cam Davis and just finds it at a place that he’s had success at but that’s I I don’t think that’s um a reasonable ask and then here’s Luke Clanton right so so we had some pretty good exposure to Luke last week unfortunately we had a little bit too much to Stephen joerger but um now we’ve got two we have two measured tournaments on on this kid the US Open in which he made the cut and Gain six Strokes ball striking and the rocket mortgage in which he finished T10 and gained seven and a half Strokes ball striking what I like about him besides a lot of things is how during those eight rounds he’s been very consistent right um he gains in the same spots he loses in the same spots that’s great for a young kid um he’s horrible around the greens or he’s not horrible he’s not good around the greens he will figure that out you don’t need to be right you know play out of the Short Grass uh stuff some darts in there make some putts and let’s go if you’re getting up and down for par you were cooked anyway okay the 7K range and I think there’s a lot of interesting guys here um Ben Griffin continues to be kind of fun if you look at The Strokes gain Trends on the trends Tool uh he is the first guy in the 7K range who pops up in terms of Strokes gain Trend which looks at the golers 100 round Baseline and then uh adds or subtracts or uh factors in what they’re doing recently so over the last 36 rounds the way to read this is uh Ben Griffin has been a third of a shot better per round than his 100 round Baseline and all of that is coming from Tia green he’s actually not putting as well as normal and His short game has not been as good so if you look at golfers who are ready to pop he is going to be right here in this upper leftand quadrant um there’s a lot of actually there’s a lot of in that optimal quadrant from Daniel Berger and Ryan Moore to Brendon Todd who I’ll pull up his stat profile in a second Ben Griffin who I already mentioned even sep straka and Davis Thompson these are guys that conceivably still have juice to squeeze out of their game hub’s on like the second best place you can be he’s on the positive side not the optimal side but the positive side I I think that this is worth looking at for this week uh um because getting the ability to to squeeze everything out of the game is is going to matter Here Andrew Novak is 7500 been keeping a close eye on Andrew Novak he was very good during this stretch to start off 2024 then missed the cut at the players and you know just Treads water for a while nothing great but nothing horrible making a lot of cuts but finishing between you know 25th and 30th or 25th and 50th a lot until recently when he picks up nearly seven strokes ball striking at the Canadian open um he putts the lights out at the rocket mortgage and finishes T20 he’s not going to do that again but somewhere in the middle of these two results I think is realistic for Andrew Novak and now you put him in a a weaker field where he’s made the cut twice each of the last two years he’s hit it well here he puted beautifully two years ago and was a zero last year this feels like he’s close and could snap off you know who might be really good is Neil Shipley right low am at the Masters low am at the US Open and then just finished T20 at the rocket mortgage where he gained six Strokes ball striking and lost nearly three with the putter Neil Shipley might be that dude not not that dude like Michael Thor bornon or lud VI oberg or Victor havin or k Mor cow but he might be like that dude he’s he’s pretty good and in only 7,500 bucks I I think that’s uh a reasonable take I I think I was getting confused a little bit I thought for whatever reason Brendan Todd was in the mix last week and I must be confusing him or I only saw him a couple of times and every time I saw him he was making something he missed the cut which is now uh a bunch of events in a row outside of you know since the Texas open he doesn’t have anything inside the top 35 which is not great the ball striking is gone the putter is even having trouble at times so I must have been confusing him with someone else I did want to Circle back on that um Joel Damon is 7300 and he is a streaky golfer uh good and bad you get great runs like he had at the end of 2022 you get bad runs like he did in the summer of 2023 another good run here at the end of 202 three and now we’re getting what I think is the DNA of Joel Damon accurate off the T he’s goingon to play out of the short gr he’s gained at least a stroke off the te in each of his last three starts the last two he’s gained two and a half and three ball striking yep he’s going to hit a lot of greens when he’s going well and then we’re getting a volatile putter great awesome that’s what we’re looking for you know if he loses a stroke and a half putting he finishes T25 if he gains four he finishes T10 and in this field maybe he wins it so I I I think this is a really good time to get in on Joel Damon his record here is not good missed the cut last year then he didn’t play Anywhere before 2019 2019 he missed the cut 2018 he finished runner up 2017 he missed the cut so we can throw out probably 17 18 19 throw out two Miss cuts and a runner up that feels fair and he missed the cut on the number last year he’s playing much better now than he was at this time last year and then I did want to do a deep dive on Dylan woo because I saw that he led the field and strokes gain putting last week 6.8 Strokes there he did hit it well 3.2 on approach which is something that he kind of does routinely he’s trying to break out of a little bit of a just a mini slump has he played this event I always think he’s undervalued I I think he’s a much better player than the way that he’s generally treated it it’s it’s okay I’m not I’m not super stoked about it but it’s it’s fine there’s no 5K range this week so it’s just uh these golfers here in the 6K and as much as I love the 7K range I do not enjoy dipping down into the sixes so I will try to stop my lineups from getting down here too much but I do think there are a few interesting names firstly um if you sort this so I’m on I’m on last 36 rounds right now if you sort this by Strokes gate total you’re going to be like who in the world is Kyle West Morland and why is he gaining 60 or why is he $6,100 in gaining a stroke per round just to cover that that is all uh on the corn fairy tour right so he’s been playing exclusively on the corn fairy tour in 2024 he does have some really good finishes some high-end finishes he’s gaining every single week but that’s that’s why you’re seeing it I like this guy he’s he’s a he’s a very um raw uh talented guy the problem for me is he’s a masher and I I think this place kind of hems you in a little bit and I don’t think this is a great spot for him if he would have gotten a spot start at Detroit golf club last week I think I’d be much more interested so uh just wanted to point out why when you have questions about why he’s showing up at one like that’s true but if you do waited he’s probably going to drop down pretty significantly um talking about guys who have not played a lot on the PGA tour and is is Kelly craft and Kelly craft hasn’t really played a lot anywhere he’s only played I guess I shouldn’t say that because he did play well he played four times between May and June which I guess is not that much but he’s only played six times on the PGA tour and one of them was the Zurich Classic in 2024 he does have some good results though 13th at byr Nelson he did finish t11 the Zer if you go back to his last start of 2023 he finished 19th at the RSM Classic this is if you are ever going to play Kelly KRA this is the week right so if you go back to the cheat sheet and you sort this by accuracy over the last 36 rounds and again his rounds go back a lot farther hits 71% of his Fairways he’s first in the field in Strokes gain approach gaining a stroke per round he’s got a couple of high-end finishes he’s a he’s a Fairways and greens guy which is what you need here so I I I don’t like the small sample size I don’t like that he missed the cut the rocket mortgage but I think that when you start looking at stat profiles uh we are pretty far from like on the other end of the spectrum for TPC Deer Run than we are for Detroit Golf Club at in terms of golfers and the types of of profiles that they have had when they have success maybe my favorite guy in the 6K range is Harry Hicks so Harry Harry $6,400 okay what do we know historically about Harry Hicks um well he doesn’t have a lot of PGA Tour PGA Tour stuff but he really struggled on the PGA tour L it’s why he was on on the corn fairy tour but when he’s going well maybe 2022 was a a better stat profile for him when he’s going well he has put together some impressive finishes and then all of a sudden in may he snaps off and wins back-to-back events on the corn fairy tour very difficult to do misses two cuts then he finishes fourth on the corn fairy and t26 last week so I can cut him a break for you know maybe coming down from a high missing the cut at the at the BMW charity proam and then if you miss the cut at the US open at Pinehurst I don’t not I don’t care whatsoever but he’s getting back on track and I think that to have a golfer who could conceivably win this golf tournament for $6,400 is is is much too cheap he’s played this event three times last year and the two years prior two Miss Cuts in a 57th so nothing to write home about there but $6,400 for a guy who has wins anywhere around the globe in his last six starts two of them I think is is is quite strong and I also don’t think that there’s a lot of other things to like in the 6K range so to get that guy at 6,400 I think is is worth uh not you don’t have to go all in on him but worth being involved in okay let’s run a model so custom model rickun good.com you get to put any number of Weights that you want in and uh number of rounds and then we can go from there so let’s do it like this let’s do I think we need to do weighted Strokes gained again because we’ve already seen that we’ve got golfers from a lot of different tours some corn fairy action some major championship action they’re now crossing paths so 15 on weighted Strokes gained in the last 36 then we’re going to follow the model a little bit here and we’re going to do driving accuracy for 15 good drive percentage for five good drive percentage says um did you either hit the Fairway or hit the green so did you give yourself a chance to get to the putting surface in regulation that’s that’s what it says approach play we are going to do opportunities gained for 15 we are then going to do you know what we’re going to do right we’re going to do bonus putting which which we love bonus putting for 20 we will do the uh course history here TPC Deer Run for 10 we’ve got 20 left could do easy courses I feel like this is exactly the model I did last week but instead of accuracy I did distance and then let’s do what are we missing some scoring stuff birdies are better gained fantasy points gained implied win percentage let do birdies are better gained all right wow wow okay yeah wow all right our number one golfer is sunj IM and I hate it because I’m not sure he’s backback but I love it because I’m trying to be early and I I think he might be backback Jordan spe is two Doug gim is three I’ll click his profile we’ll go to him sep Str of four no surprise oh look look up Sam Ryder five Davis Thompson six Lucas Glover seven Denny eight yeah Zack Johnson who won here a couple times ninth and Justin lower 10 very quickly let’s see what doug gim’s been doing yeah so th Doug gim when he unlocked the putter here at the start of 2024 unbelievable finishes now that he can’t putt again he’s back to just those middling finishes because he just can’t kind of you can’t out hit a bulky putter Sam Ryder what’s he been up to three straight miscuts four out of his last five why is he getting such a good score here okay he gets the benefit of playing on the PGA tour so he gets the weighted Strokes gained he is accurate off the te he’s played well here he’s played well on easy he’s like top 45 in everything interesting yeah just nothing spectacular but he just gets a lot of lot of good bumps from or a lot of small bumps from from different things Sam Stevens is my 12th ranked golfer I was really hoping he was going to be $7,000 hubber is my 14th he’s 84 Joel Damon is 73 he is um 17th huh fun okay well let me save this uh 24 oh it’s the 1 of July oh my goodness uh this would be John Deere Monday and we’ll see if we need to change this on Wednesday so um Wednesday live chat 9:00 am eastern time go over there right now drop your questions concerns comments I’ll save them throughout the week we’re going to go early on Wednesday go fill up that uh John Deere classic um listener League contest on Splash if you’re off this week or even if you’re not off this week happy fourth happy independence day I’ll talk to you before then but uh yeah have a have a great time have a great week let’s go [Music]