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hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 Travelers DFS tactic show apologies for the delayed start as I just got home from a golf scramble of my own but we are here to cover everything you need to finalize and optimize your lineups for The Travelers Championship DFS slate this week should be a fun show Let’s Get Right into it all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money it’s going to make you a much smarter golf Gambler and a much better golf DFS player go check out fantasy national.com you will not regret it in the description to the video there are links to all of the social media first off my ex and Instagram where earlier this week I posted some research around the previous winners of The Travelers Championship the patterns that they all shared leading into their win at TPC River Highlands and the players that fit that criteria that are in the field this week so if you want to see the weekly research that I do on the PJ tour then give me a follow at your preferred social media site X is also where I place my betting cards and my top player usage in the DFS contest I play that’ll come out later this evening after the DFS tactics show so if you want to see those pieces of information give me a follow over at X lastly for social media gab’s handles is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a great way it’s a great way to start your week of preparation and he provides you more information throughout the week and if you are a subscriber to his article which is free to do by the way you’re going to be able to join us in his substat chat every Wednesday night after the DFS tactics show here on calls calls as he is gracious enough to host me and we continue the DFS talk over there we talk about Game Theory our favorite areas of the price board uh Fades uh players that we’re pivoting to and and anything uh FS we generally cover it’s always a great discussion so you don’t want to miss out the only way you’re going to be able to join us is if you are subscribed to his article lastly we are live chat’s open want to hear from you all in addition to the poll question which is very very basic I had to come up with one very very quickly so in addition to the poll question would love to hear your thoughts on TBC River Highlands and uh The Travelers this week who are you pivoting to who are you fading away from all of that so let’s figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 20th 24 Travelers championship and we start as we always do on a Wednesday evening over at the super forecast at windfinder and I will go ahead and post the poll question again very very basic as I am in quite a rush but the poll question this evening pretty simple who wins this week and I only had four options uh so I decided to put the three 10ks Scotty Xander lud VI Oar or if you think it’s somebody else please put it in chat or in the comments the forecast for Cromwell is um pretty pretty benign very hot high near 90 tomorrow high of 90 on Friday very little wind uh at least uh especially Friday looks like it could pick up tomorrow afternoon and then there might be some rain in the forecast late Friday hey good evening Pete thanks for jumping in chat apologies for the delayed start to the show this evening but I appreciate you jumping in chat hopefully you have had a good week you had a good uh US Open and we’re going to continue any momentum uh Into The Travelers the last signature event of the season so it’s good to see you this evening um again with a no cut event not really really interested in wave stacking or or anything to that effect You could argue that the um the latest tea times tomorrow have the worst end of it but I don’t think this is enough wind to really justifi penalizing them all that much and again with this being a no- cut event not any wave stack um s uh Sunday looks like the wind could pick up quite a bit by the time uh the CH uh the final group is is finishing play so perhaps maybe something to to maybe think about but that would be more for round four Showdown per se now there is rain in the forecast on Saturday uh but again it’s late in the day and there doesn’t appear to be much of it so really not a whole lot to do with the forecast uh this week uh pretty pretty benign on Friday looks like the wind could gradually pick up um as the day goes on tomorrow but I’m not factoring that in really into any of my considerations so with that let’s move to Fantasy National let’s cover a couple of things here just rather quickly this is uh a Pete Dy design so let’s go ahead and take a quick look at our top Pete Dy performers the past couple of years those players have been Scotty Xander Brian Harmon wam Clark has Dei Klay sunj Justin Thomas Fitzpatrick Oar fow and sahit tagala um the other end of the spectrum players who haven’t played well on Pete D designs Billy horel Peter Mady Taylor pendit Nick Dunlap Bobby Mack only three rounds Lucas Glover Ben on Jack knap Riley and so on down those are your worst performers on Pete Dy designs um something else that we can absolutely tell take a look at is short courses this is the shortest uh course by raw yardage or total yardage that the players have seen so far this season so your top performers on short courses Scotty Russell Henley Xander ludick Oar Eric Cole J uh Justin Thomas Patrick kley JT Poston Brian Harmon Tom Kim and then your worst performers on short courses Jake knap Max hom Davis Riley SE Roa Nick Dunlap Lucas Glover Cameron young web Simpson Hideki and so on down so we’ve covered that quite extensively throughout the week don’t want to go U too much further into that uh let’s just go ahead and go into the mixed condition model that I have made for The Travelers championship this week uh we start with 15% approach we looked at the mixed condition model that I made Monday night for or we looked at the mixed condition model that I made last year we looked at that Monday night we saw that I only had 5% in Strokes G approach and I think that was an egregious error uh approach has been very mandatory uh and has been very consistent year-over-year here at TPC River Highlands it is a Pete die Design After all so 15% in stroke scan approach 5% around the green when the rough is long look the rough here at TVC River Highlands is about 4 in in some places uh it is not like uh where we were last week with pine Hurst uh the rough is penal there is plenty of it and it runs right up to the greens a lot of play a lot on a lot of these holes so 5% around the green 15% on putting and you’ll see the filter of multiple courses this is just the bent and POA Ana surfaces a Qui recap on what courses that those are this is Detroit Golf Club um host of the rocket mortgage we have um Oakdale which hosted the RBC Canadian last year Silverado which is the host the foret um TBC River Highlands of course and then I believe there is one more and I have to I have to look here uh Detroit Silverado TBC nope River Highlands and then Oakdale so those four are what make up the bent and po ana um subset of data there 15% on putting on Benton POA Ana surfaces 10% good drives gained on Pete die courses look I mentioned Monday that I was I’m just leaning that way there have been a few changes to the course after Rory’s comments last year how the course has become obsolete uh the tournament organizers um narrowed some Fairways uh they they added some rough in some areas which we didn’t cover throughout this week uh as I started reading more articles about it um yesterday so there have been small changes to the course but I still think it it’s going to play roughly similar to what it has in the past Pete Dy emphasizes being in the right spot on the T off the te whether that’s in the Fairway or in the correct side of the of the rough to give yourself an angle at the green so that’s why I’m looking at good drives not Fairways not greens looking at good drives on Pete die designs hey Darnell good evening thanks for jumping in chat good to see you this evening much appreciated Sam Burns I want to like Sam Burns but I’m I’m probably going to fade him this week um as much as or as high as was on him last year or last week probably going to fade him but more so because of the ownership because everybody seems to be on him uh but it’s good to see you this evening um so 10% good drives gained on Pete die designs 10% in opportunities on Pete die designs look these greens are really small so instead of looking at greens I wanted to look at the players who were I mean these greens are small so if you hit the green it’s almost an opportunity in of itself but again as I was mentioning with with uh good drives and Pete die designs I want to see the players who are Adept at playing Pete Dy design oh okay uh Sam Burns outright just responding to the poll okay cool uh love it love it thanks for thanks for clarifying and and I don’t hate that I don’t hate that one bit in terms of an outright um but as I was mentioning with the good drives with opportunity I want to see the players who are just Adept at playing Pete Dy designs Pete Dy really favors positional golf so that’s why I wanted to to reward or focus on the players who are going to put themselves in the right spots shley Oar should be faded in my opinion live 20 minutes from the course course is easy course has been easy they have made a few small changes but Keegan Bradley last year uh going 23 under generally the winning score is right about 20 under so you’re right it is it is on the easier side of average the only reason I would I would um um maybe push back with you just a touch at least in terms of fantasy National yes last year was easy but the majority of the time it plays average at least for the full field most of the time it plays average so that’s the only push back I would I would would give you on that and I think 2023 was a bit of an outlier in how easy it was but yes the winning scores do get to about 20 or so here um so usually good scores and with the lack of wind that appears to be in the forecast I think it will play Easier uh as well so you’re right with that in that regard so that’s the only push back I would give with you on that in the sense that by fantasy Nationals definition it plays more average um so 10% opportunities on Pete diet courses 10% birdies are better on short courses You could argue not to use a filter here I don’t think I would I would um argue with you too much with that I did not want to use birdies are better gained when um uh difficulty is average so it just made sense to use uh the short course filter um this is probably the combination metric and filter that I’m the least confident in but I do think birdies are better gained is going to be important to see who wins this week as we saw Monday night in the prior leaderboards and uh in terms of just the the correlation between the players who play well here and their birdies are better gain numbers I do think this metric is important I’m not terribly confident in the filter but I didn’t want to I didn’t want to overload my mixed condition model with Pete diey fil with the Pete die filter so I put short course but your better gain to finish the mix condition model 5% procs 150 to 175 I ended up convincing myself that this range is important enough to factor in I only have it at 5% but 5% in the proximity 150 to 175 5% in par 3s we saw that they just don’t contribute a whole lot instead it’s all about the par fours 15% in power fours 10% in the power fours 400 to 450 so there’s a look at the mixed condition model some areas where I might be weak if off the tea does play um you know higher or more important than I think particularly distance because I that’s why I not I don’t have anything off the te related I wanted to focus on good drives gained so if distance per se matters I’ll be weak to that considering I’m more focused on the accuracy portion of it um if putting doesn’t matter as much um you know if I have the wrong filter with this birdies or better gain maybe this proximity matters more maybe it doesn’t matter at all this year those are some areas where I could be week with this mixed condition model but with that let’s go to Microsoft XEL the reveal of my rankings for The Travelers this week uh as a reminder to those of you who are returning viewers for your information if you’re a new viewer my rankings are based on three criteria the FC rank which is a straight numerical ranking based on the mixed condition model that we just went over the metrics and the percentages and and all that that that we talked just talked about course value is uh an attempt at giving a player a value uh on how well they have played that course the past 5 years the lower the number the better so that’s why you see players like Xander like Brian Harmon like Patrick Klay who have these very very low very good course values whereas players like morawa and Connors who have not particularly played well here and then we are playing DFS we are trying to find unique options so percent owned and this is per fantasy National percent owned is also a factor into my rankings so my rankings for The Travelers goes as such Xander is my number one player this week Brian Harmon second a little bit surprising that he Leap Frogs Scotty despite the same amount of ownership it’s just the fact that Brian Harmon has played better here so that’s what’s giving him the Boost over Scotty as you see Scotty was number one purely by the metrics so Scotty’s third Keegan’s fourth Patrick kley rounds out my top five sunjay ludvick Oar Russell Henley Hideki and Victor havin round out my top 10 look no no real surprise here in terms of who is in my top 10 probably the biggest surprise being sunj considering he was 13th in terms of the uh purely by the Numbers uh not necessarily the best course history here it’s been fine but not necessarily the best he’s really Rising due to at least per fantasy National the lack of ownership sorry moving papers out of my way um Henley makes a lot of sense you see he rated seventh Hideki was all the way to 16th in terms of by purely by the numbers but his course value he’s only played once here but he did top 15 this last year and his ownership isn’t astronomically high he sneaks into the top 10 but really other than the ordering uh I don’t have you know much of a gripe here I’m not surprised by who is in my top 10 so let’s go ahead and sort on the price board figure out where our our fellow contestants are going in various areas of the price board and see how we can maneuver around the chalk in the areas so in the 10ks in the five digits we have three players thanks to Rory’s withdrawal Scotty is at 125 Xander is at 112 lvic obar is at 102 you see all three of these players right in the top seven Xander number one Scotty third oar I mean I like all three of these players this week much to maybe um returning viewers surprise I’m actually back on Scotty this week it’s surprising to see him be the lowest projected owned player in the 10ks uh he’s still garnering 20% but it looks like some at least per fantasy National have soured on Scotty considering the uh lackluster performance at the US Open last week I think this is a pretty darn good fit for Scotty Sheffer yes the putter is always going to be bulky but number one in irons number one in power fours good drives gained and opportunities I mean the GU is number one player for a reason I really like Scotty I really like Xander but you can’t play all three of these guys so I’m really having a tough time choosing who to fade in the 10ks and it very well might I very well might play all three of these guys a decent amount which means I would be off of the 9ks which I’m okay with generally um in the general sense but I I mean I just really really like all three of these I think ludvick oar is going to be very very solid he topped 25 this last year so he does have some course history or course knowledge here Xander winner two years ago he has played exceptionally well here at TPC River Highlands the most projected owned player uh per fantasy National um but this week I will be using some Scotty sheffler absolutely last last week was was solid for me because I did I faded Sheffer I only had him in two of my 25 lineups maybe three like I said last Wednesday I was not going to be in the 25% Scotty sheffler exposure and it turned out to work very well in my favor so I am going to be back on Scotty Sheffer especially if he’s the lowest own of these three especially if he’s the lowest owned of these three I just really like Scotty this week so because of the simply because he is the least owned in the 10ks I think I’m going to make him my number one player in the 10ks I’ll make Oar second and Xander Third only only because I mean he is going to be pretty darn popular this week for a good reason I mean his worst statistic his worst is good drives at 26th it’s solid it’s very solid but I think I’m going to have the most exposure to Scotty I’ll have quite a bit of Oar I’m very high on him this week and I’ll have a decent amount of Xander but I’ll probably have the least amount of him moving into the nks morawa kley havin matama Fleetwood and burns if I’m very very confident and going to be using a lot of the 10ks that means I’m going to have to fade the nine having said that I do like Hadi I do like keki it is very very rare that you get positive putting from hii on a course it is only one year so it’s a very very small sample size but he gained Strokes last year here at TPC River Highlands I’m willing to R to run with that a little bit extrapolate that a little bit and say that he might like putting on these greens so I will be using Hideki quite a bit I actually am going to fade morawa again you see the course value it has not been good here he has not been good at TBC River Highlands kley has been fantastic I think last week was a little bit a little bit of Fool’s Gold he hit he had his irons very very well no doubt about that but he had a very good putting week last week uh I’ll change the page view kley had a stellar putting week last week gaining five I’m going to I’m going to I’m just going to I think he comes back down to earth I was I was so high on him at the memorial a place where he generally plays extremely well and he just didn’t he didn’t play well so I’ll take the chance that Patrick kley comes back down to earth especially since it seems like at least per fantasy National people are starting to gravitate towards him again so I’ll fade him I do like Ki I’ll probably use Victor a time or two no thanks on morawa no thanks on Tommy and Sam Burns even though he uh has been pretty good here I don’t like the ownership and he’s got a few things worrisome about him particularly you know this proximity isn’t great for him he hasn’t been good with the par 3es yes it’s only 5% and there wasn’t a lot to be gained but it’s still worrisome the around the green hadn’t been great so I will fade Burns in DFS a lot of it is due to the fact of his ownership and that’s what I really liked Sam Burns last week because of the lack of ownership so it’s really just about an ownership uh P it’s on it’s the ownership perspective for me about Sam Burns so there’s a look at the 9ks again I really really like keki I’ll be using him quite a bit I’ll use a little bit of havin I’ll fade kley I’ll fade morawa fade Fleetwood and burns moving into the eights Tony sahit tala Keegan Russell Henley JT Connors Harmon spe Tom Kim and it’s Patrick while there’s several players I like in the 8ks I don’t think I’ll be here very much because I’m going to be using a lot of these players in fact I might be making lineups with two 10ks meaning we’re going to have to find some 6K plays that we want to play uh in the eights however I do like Tony fenale this week um not terribly concerned with the putter he hadn’t been fantastic here but I do like Tony fow his game has matured quite a bit I like sahit tagala it’s going to be pretty chalky so I’ll try to limit my exposure to him I want to fade Keegan but my goodness he just loves this tournament I mean local guy or at least North uh Northeastern guy so he loves this tournament it’s really hard to ignore Keegan here considering how well he’s been playing lately um Henley I think getting a little bit too much ownership uh I worry about the putter um he he he’s not the best on Pete D courses Henley again is a fade on the ownership Connors is a fade especially if if I think around the Green’s going to matter because his around the green game has not been good it’s hard to ignore Brian Harmon and his exceptional course value I want to like Tom Kim as well but that ownership is creeping up there but this does feel like a pretty darn good Tom Kim fit you think about like Sedgefield all the um the comparisons and and similarities between Sedgefield and here feels like a pretty good fit for Tom Kim so in the 8ks I’ll definitely use these two I’m going to reluctantly use Keegan Bradley I’ll use Brian Harmon that is chalk I’m comfortable eating he has always just been very good here and Tom Kim feels like a good play but man that ownership’s pretty high ownership’s pretty high moving into the sevens let’s go with the upper sevens Darnell you mentioned sep straa really like sep straa I’m hoping this the fantasy National Community is a little bit higher on him than say the general public I’m hoping his lackluster performance last week brings people off of him the course value isn’t the best but there’s a lot to like here the irons’s generally one of his weaker aspects of his game has been really good lately par fors are always good um the around the green is better than what is showing here he just got exposed to the the unique challenge that uh Pinehurst presents so I do like sep straa I’m with you on that there is a chance he’s still going to be chalky though so be be mindful of that but elsewhere in the upper sixes or excuse me the upper sevens I don’t like a whole lot like I just don’t know how I feel about sunj um the miscut at uh at the US Open I would have thought his ownership would be a little bit higher it’s not um look I’ve tried to play Windham Clark lately it’s backfired on me so I’m not particularly there I’m much more like Shane Larry when it’s tough this is on the easier end of of average so no thanks there although he does play Pete D designs well not necessarily in love with Shane Lowry Max Homa has horrendous uh history here just horrendous so no thanks so really in the upper upper sevens I’m it’s kind of sep straa or or nothing unfortunately at least for Fantasy National it’s kind of the way it looks you know uh elsewhere too if if ownerships do end up being just like this I have to call sep straka a fade I just do cuz he’s going to be the most played player in the upper sevens if these ownerships do in fact come to fruition and I like the guy he was I mean little foreshadowing a little spoiler on my on my betting card I mean he was the first name I clicked this week uh on an outright um I really like sep straka but in terms of d FS man it’s it’s it’s hard to back a guy who’s the the only chalky play in his range moving into the mid sevens I like Denny McCarthy I’m I’m not terribly worried about the irons I think this is a good course fit despite the lack of success he’s had here I don’t like CZ at all and I I know he’s getting a lot of attention so CZ is a fade for me um I want to like posting just like Tom Kim this feels like a good JT Poston fit but you see the course course value here he has been literally All or Nothing four miscuts and a runner up that is JT poston’s um uh history in the past five years here at TBC River Highlands so it’s quite Boomer bust I’m Pro I’m willing to fade that because he has been really bad here except for one exceptional year um pendrith and batia getting some looks no thanks really batia has been pretty bad on bent and paa but his win one of his wins was at the Barracuda which is bent in poaa it just doesn’t get factored into fantasy National cuz it’s not a stroke play event so he’s probably better than last on this surface but I don’t know got some got got some questions on on those on those guys and at the you know at the bottom half you know the very bottom of the seven I’m just nowhere near these guys really I mean Tom hogi was middling because of the irons he gives himself plenty of opportunities but you want to talk about a guy that can spray it and he’s not long that’s Tom hogi he is just not good off the tea at all um he’s not been good around the green so I’ve got some I’ve got some concerns with Tom hogi as well so if I’m playing all three of these guys in the 10ks if I like hii and I want to use some hin I’m definitely going to have to find some 6ks fortunately I I I honestly believe there are a handful of guys that are going to be pretty useful this week in the 6ks um let’s start at 60 uh 6500 Sheamus power Iron’s been good you see this course value it’s been pretty darn solid he looks like he is the chalki 6K play okay he’s second behind Ben Griffin which makes some sense Ben Griffin probably is fine it’s only one time he played this last year and missed the cut but probably fine but I want to highlight Sheamus power um the irons have been good again he’s he’s he’s played Pete die designs okay he’s also the number one proximity player from 150 to 175 so if you’re putting an extra emphasis into proximity then can give Sheamus power a little bit of a boost but he is the second most chalky play in this uh in the 6ks so be a little mindful of that um I want to highlight Victor perie uh yeah he write it out fairly low for me but the irons are still good he’s been fine on bid polar anot it’s a small sample size he’s getting hurt by the fact that he hadn’t been good at the shorter par 4S and these uh the 150 to 175 procs but at 6500 5% to get a guy that’s top 20 in this loaded field with his irons I’d be willing to take a chance on that so I do like Victor perie in that regard I want to highlight Eric Cole shorter the course the better it is for him think about his performance at the Honda and and all of his other top finishes they’ve been on short courses this is a very short course also not getting a whole lot of uh ownership uh top 10 bent and POA anap putter second on birdies are better on short courses so he’s going to get you some points in DFS contest I think uh two more that I want to mention uh I do want to mention Cam Davis look I know he rid it out horrendously one of the bottom bottom few players for me this is all a gut feeling this is all just a just a an instinct that I have I think Cameron Davis might might be pretty useful here and then the last player I want to highlight in the sixk is Brendan Todd anytime you’re talking about short game you know putting and around the green opportunity like he’s top 10 in Opp opportunities on Pete die designs think about Bren and Todd again remember there’s no cut so these guys are guaranteed four rounds to ACR some points all it takes is a a top 30 from Bren Todd and especially at 4% and you’re probably probably gaining quite a bit on your on our fellow contestants so there’s a look at the price board where at least members of fantasy National seem to be gravitating let’s start making some lineups we’ll start with tiers contests for those who play tiers tier one with Rory’s withdrawal we only have two players Scotty and Xander whoever you think the lesser of the two owned will be in a tear contest that’s who I’m going to suggest you take I I would have to I I’m hard pressed to believe Scotty would be less ownership than Xander in a tears cont test but all I can go by is this which is of course classic lineups so I’m going to say Scotty with the caveat of whoever you think is the Lesser owned of the two take that player so I’ll say Scotty it very well could be Xander whoever you think is lesser owned tier two we have lud goar Colin morawa Klay havin and Tommy Fleetwood pretty clear ludvic Oar for me if you’re a big believer in course history can’t lays an option although I’ve given you my reasons why I think he comes back uh back down to earth hain’s okay but one of the main reasons why I told you or or recommended to take the lesser of the of the owned players in tier one whoever you perceive is the Lesser owned that’s why I told you to take them because I knew I was going to take Chalk in tier two with ludvic Oar just love everything about Oar this week tier three Hideki Sam Burns Tony Fen out to Gala and Keegan again a pretty darn loaded tier I like Hadi uh Hey awaken thanks for jumping in chat much appreciated hopefully you’re ready for The Travelers Championship you had a good uh US Open and such I really appreciate the sport and you and you jumping in chat this evening tier three again I like Sam Burns and an outright play but anything to do with DFS I’m probably going to fade him so to me it’s it you know I kind of eliminate Burns in that regard again if you’re a big believer in course history take a long look at Keegan s SE toala I feel pretty strongly about fenales a little speculative Maybe but I I I really I like all four of these players I’ll go Hadi in tier three over Keegan but it’s pretty darn close and then a third again pretty darn close Keegan Tony fenale fourth and I don’t hate Tony fenale by any means I think he’s just fourth in this tier and then Burns uh is fifth for me and I’m I’m I’ll try not to use any s Burns tier four Henley JT Connor Harmon spe Tom Kim and sunj if you think Tom Kim is going to be exceptionally uh less owned than Harmon in tier four I would take Tom Kim if you think he’s going to be much less owned I mean I’m talking maybe 5 to 10% less owned than Harmon then I would take Tom Kim otherwise it’s a very clear Brian Harmon uh don’t care how chalky he is I just really like Brian Harmon this is chalk Al e even in classic lineups so give me Harmon in tier four tier five Fitz straa hom Lowry Windam Clark Adam Scott and Bin on I just give me sep straa I guess I mean he’s going to be probably the most popular player in this tier but God I don’t want anything to do with anybody else in this here Max Homa his course history is horrendous I much prefer Larry when it’s more difficult I prefer Fitzpatrick when it’s difficult you see his course value is bad the the metrics still like Windam Clark but man he’s not performed very well lately Adam Scott this course value seems fine he’s only played here once in the past five years maybe twice maybe it’s Adam Scott if you want to get off the sep St chalk I would I would suggest going to Adam Scott in tier five but I’ll still take sep straa and then tier six is Rose Kirk Griffin eot Pavone hadwin and Fowler G more yuck my goodness I like rose and Kirk you’ve seen their course history terrible Griffin makes a lot of sense cuz he’s only 0 for one ecro oh my gosh I just GH I hate this tier last week I took tiger you can blame me that he missed the cut since I never take tiger and I took him in tier six last week and he didn’t make the cut so you can throw all your vital at me for that U but I just I hate everything about this tier I guess give me Austin ecro but man I don’t like that at all I really don’t I mean I guess I’ll go with the fact that he’s generally a decent ball Striker um like if we compare Griffin and ekro because it’s between those two and tier six like Griffin’s irons have actually been a little bit better par fors are much to Griffin good drives is much to eot they both struggle with birdies are better on short courses like Griffin rated out so much better but he might be the chalky play in the tier I don’t know it’s between those two I’ll take ekro if you take Griffin I don’t blame you so tier six or excuse me this tier’s construction goes I’m going to say Scotty it’s whoever you think the least of the owned of the two are whether you think it’s Xander or whether you think it’s Scotty take that player I’ll say Scotty only because of what F NGC says for the classic lineups so this TI construction goes Scotty ludvic Oar I’ll take Hideki in tier three tier four I will take Brian Harmon tier five was sep straa if you want to get off the chalk take Adam Scott in that case but I think it’s a pretty clear sepa then tier six I’ll say eek root it very well could be BR Griffin all right let’s move to Classic lineups figure out how we are going to maneuver around the chalk in our big gpps and um gain some leverage on our fellow contestants all right so surprisingly it seems like Xander is the most projected own player over Scotty so we’re going to start our chalky lineup with Xander if we’re going to try try to mimic the lineups that we think we’re going to see this week Xander ludvic obar also gaining a ton of attention very well could be that play uh that our fellow contestants are going Xander and ludig um if they do that that’s probably an average of What 70 71 yeah 7,200 so they won’t be able to fit too much like Ben Griffin’s getting a little bit in the 10ks pendrith and AA at 72 so if we did pendri batia and Griffin this leaves them 74 CZ is getting some getting some attention so if our fellow contestants are trying to squeeze in a Xander ludvig they’re more than likely filling this out with the upper sixes and lower sevens is how that’s probably going to go would be my guess otherwise it looks like it’s Xander probably morawa who’s not going to save them too much anyway um Xander morawa probably coming down to a Harmon who’s getting a whole lot of attention or Connor I mean even so they’re averaging 6,900 per player here I mean that’s just that’s just a lot that’s just a lot it they might go Xander kley uh still at 7,300 so if we go Griffin batia pendrith who’s that leave them with 8,000 so they can move this now at se sta so if they go Xander you see the the difficult ulty in trying to squeeze in a Xander in another top play like a nine or even a 10 uh if they go luic goar that opens him up a whole lot and that’s probably why he’s getting a whole lot of ownership other than the fact he’s also a very good player oer morawa would be in this then to drop down to maybe Connors cuz we used Harmon in that other lineup straa CZ Poston we haven’t thrown in a lineup yet again this is pendrith and batia but there’s a look at some of the chalkier builds and something that I changed this week instead of doing an average percentage where I would say you know looking for 10% or 11% or whatever I have started to do the cumulative ownership because that seems to be the question that that um that people tend to ask themselves so I went ahead and changed this to a cumulative ownership as opposed to an average me as a statistician as a mathematical minded person I try I think in averages that’s why I had it that way um let’s try to build you know I’ll call it a more balanced build but uh if they start coling more Kawa maybe come down to like Sam Burns who’s getting some some ownership definitely Russell Henley again Harmon and Connors maybe Tom Kim we haven’t thrown into a lineup yet uh 7250 again is uh you know Poston and batia would be the most U chalky way to finish this lineup this is a more balanced look looking at it like a 955 to 100% cumulative ownership very very high we’re trying to shoot for about 80% give or take it’s going to be a lot harder in a uh signature event in a in a small field but we’re still trying to shoot for that you know 80 to 85% you might be able to get away with something a little bit higher if you play a very very unique play so how are we going to maneuver all around all this well I’ve told you I am in the 10ks quite a bit so let’s let’s think about a uh a more you know balanced build per se um I’m going to start this with hii um you know I I don’t mind Victor I’ve mentioned how I’m you know coming off of Klay this week morawa is just a a scary fade for me uh but I just I don’t like this course value his course history here so we’re going to start with Hideki and then we’re going to live kind of in the eights I like fenale I think he’s a little bit more speculative so I’m going to go with sagala Keegan um you know Justin Thomas would be the pivot in this range I don’t necessarily like JT this week Brian Harmon’s going to be way too popular I think and this is why I haven’t been building these lineups cuz there’s just not a lot of Leverage to gain for me using players that are unique like I just don’t I don’t want to use jusan Thomas um I don’t particularly want to use Jordan spe we’ve got 7,500 per player like Denny McCarthy probably fine and then you know in the low sevens not a whole lot down here that I’m that I’m you know excited about not not really SEIU um J day I mean it is a it is a no cut event so the irons probably don’t force him to miss the cut but o scary scary iron play this is just why I haven’t been building these lineups not particularly interested in Billy horel like Harris English has some pretty good course history if you want to go that way I mean he did win this three years ago but you know I’m just just kind of not not here this is not the kind of lineups I’ve been building um just to round this out um let’s go yeah I’ll just throw in Harris English I guess like there’s there’s a you know kind of a little bit higher on the uh what we’re shooting for in terms of of cumulative ownership but um you know in a in a small field like this you’re probably looking at a fairly unique lineup especially if you’re willing to go McCarthy and English hey Josh good seeing you in chat this evening hope all’s been well uh what type of players do no cut events help I would say bad Putters uh I would say bad put Putters benefit the most because their putter just won’t take them out of the tournament I know I just said that about Jason day and the irons but if somebody has a big glaring weakness you can use that to off the tea but I I really do think TBC River Highlands mitigates off the te play so I would say generally speaking it helps the bad Putters um the only reason I might pump the brakes a little bit on that is because TBC River Highlands emphasizes putting so much but you know generally players like Sheffer Oar I mean even Henley these guys they’re going to ACR points CU it’s all four rounds their putter is not going to take them out of it um so I’ve shown you a balance lineup that’s not really where I’m at so how am I trying to uh gain some leverage and and maneuver all um all around the chalk that is going on uh hope you win some B money this week thanks uh same to you Josh hopefully uh we continue some success um it’s been an up and it’s been a roller coaster the past month or so um I you know I’m just just just being fourth right here going back to the PGA that was a good week the Charles Schwab was bad um and then the RBC Canadian was solid it was okay um and then the memorial was bad they just horri horrible and then last week the US Open was fairly solid so if we’re following the pattern pattern says it’s probably not going to be a good week so we’re going to try to keep the momentum from the US Open um and how I think we’re going to do that I told you if he is indeed the lowest owned 10 K that to me is just mindboggling um cuz he’s played really well here maybe not as well as Xander but he’s played really darn well here he top he finished third here last year or I know for a fact it was top five I think it was third um the guy’s still the number one player in the world so I’m going to be extremely overweight on Scotty I do not mind one bit combining a Scotty and a Xander a Scotty and a ludig because even though we are averaging 6,800 per player I gave you three or four names in the 6ks that I like I’m comfortable going all the way down to a Brenan Todd I don’t I I’m going to take a shot on a cam Davis this is a this is completely a gut feeling on my end cuz nothing analytically says to look at Cam Davis this is just an instinct on mine so I’m going to make sure I have Cam Davis in a lineup I actually do like Eric Cole quite a bit um Sheamus power Victor perie these guys I don’t mind doubling the sixes this week so just just to emphasize the pricing and the uniqueness I will use Bren and Todd but you don’t have to by any means uh I’m going to use brenon Todd I like Eric Cole I like Victor perie so now we’re back in this 7400 range where you know if you wanted to throw a sep stru in you probably could um Adam Scott might be okay for me it’ be more like a Denny McCarthy and a um you know what in fact why don’t we just do three like a triple six I know that seems hellacious but let’s go I really like Sheamus power as well yeah I mean now we got 8,300 we could go Brian Harmon in all of his course history um Tom Kim seems like it’d be a good fit um so we’ll throw Brian Harmon into this even with these three big guns or big chalky plays the fact that you’re willing to triple dip in the sixes you’re not even at an 80% total cumulative I mean this is the epitome of us Superstars and super scrubs I get it but these are the kind of lineups that I’ve been more gravitating towards this week maybe it’s not Scotty and ludvic maybe I do come off of you know lud and come down to Hideki but I am still you know squeezing in to you know or I should say Scotty and a nine I’m absolutely fine doing double sixes at least I actually don’t hate the idea of a triple six lineup every you know every blue moon but here we have an average of 7900 maybe you like a Keegan Bradley maybe you like a maybe you’re willing to take a chance on a Justin Thomas I’m not but he’s certainly the pivot in the area um you know sep stro is going to be the um chalky play in the upper sevens that’s why I’m trying to slow you know or at least limit my use of seep straa I love him this week but it looks like he’s the only player garnering attention in the upper sevens so when that’s the case it’s just really really hard to recommend to play him because you’re just not gaining anything by using him um hey Joanne good evening thanks for jumping in chat much appreciated fading Scotty this week just as much value below I don’t I I again I don’t hate that I I’m just going by the ownerships on fantasy National to me it is simply crazy that he is the least owned player in the 10ks after one bad week and it’s and and we’re calling it bad when he finished middle of the pack at the US Open at a very difficult Us open in the sense that that course was not set up well for Scotty it just wasn’t um hey Derek thanks for jumping the chat we got a full house tonight um I love see it uh glad that you all got the message that uh I was running a little bit late so uh good evening much appreciated um so that’s why I I I am going to be using Scotty because I just don’t think Piner set up well for him and I think I think TPC River Highlands will um but but you’re right Joanne absolutely there is plenty of value in going Xander and ludvig or Xander well if I could spell his name apparently here we go Xander and a ludvig Xander and a havlin ludvig and a matama there’s plenty there I understand if you want to play more ofala I’m just fading the ownership actually I’m fading the ownership and I’m fading his uh course history cuz he has not been good here but I understand if you want to play col Mor the guy’s on a heat absolute heater um I’m a little cautious on kley this week so I’m going to fade him as well I’m mainly in these two um in the 9ks that’s why I was you know trying to highlight the double 10 or double five digigit lineups but there’s plenty of 6K plays that I like and like if you go Xander and ludvig you know you got 8,000 per player you know you could probably go to a tagala who doesn’t seem to be getting astronomical amounts of ownership and then 7,300 kind of passes the the Denny M like I don’t like a whole lot in the bottom sevens I try to limit myself from going down any further than Denny McCarthy because I have some concerns about CZ this week and while Poston rated out well I just don’t like his ownership I’m afraid it’s going to creep up a little bit higher than what we think uh didn’t R Scotty will be that low own this week I have Patrick kley and Colin again this is per fantasy National who’s to say that it is that he will be the lowest owned he might be the the highest but I do think people are going to overreact to a you know in Scotty by Scotty’s definition a poor performance at the US opener or by Scotty’s standards a poor performance I do think people will overreact to that and gravitate more towards a Xander or a ludvig so that’s why I’m going to make sure I am overweight on Scotty but don’t don’t get me wrong I’m going to use all three of these guys and that’s why I’ve been trying to show you the different ways to build all of these double tin lineups uh and that’s why I gave you several players in the 6ks uh because I am I am almost exclusively going Superstar stars and super scrubs I might do a regular stars and scrubs build where I do a tin sorry I do a 10K I do a nine I’ll do an eight like really if we did a a a quote normal stars and scrubs like I’m trying to stop at Denny McCarthy which doesn’t give me a whole lot of room elsewhere like if I go I’ll say Victor CU I I put Matsuyama in the the other ones like Victor C toala Keegan Bradley Brian Harmon um but the issue with this is as you’ll see that ownership starts to creep up quite a bit no matter who you put in there let’s say let’s say we do ludvig the second the second most popular player in the five digits um let’s see we need an 8K will’ll just try to be cheap and go Harmon cuz now you’re left at 6,800 but you’re already at 8% or excuse me 80% that’s kind of like your target yes this is a small field event so you can probably get away with going uh a little bit higher in terms of a Target total owner uh accumulative ownership but you know I just 68 Ben Griffin’s getting some play like Austin necro might be fine but really if I’m comfortable going down to a Sheamus power to a uh Victor perie to an Eric Cole you know that’s why I’m trying to squeeze in so much more up here and that’s why I’m not doing a whole lot of stars and scrubs that’s why I’ve been doing super stars and scrubs doing the double sixes because I’m just not comfortable with a whole lot of players in the 7ks like under Denny McCarthy I just don’t like hardly anything here I just I just don’t Harris English maybe because of the course history but it’s I’m not in love with it do I like zot Taurus this week no no I don’t I prove to me that he’s healthy I don’t think anybody can uh the irons haven’t been good the Putter’s you know not always has been as weak as thing generally anyway but like third to last in par fours and TBC River Highlands definitely emphasizes the power fours I just don’t think he’s healthy so no I I I’m not will I’m not willing to take that chance but if you are oh you’re going to gain a lot you’re going to gain a lot if you’re willing to do it I that’s not the risk I’m willing to take but if you are you’re going to gain a lot by doing it cuz I mean if that’s the case like you could we’ll just you know leave the 6K empty for now you go like Wills Al torus uh you can probably throw in a sep straa you know pick pick whatever eight that you like you know Brian Haron I’m not particularly interested in Cory Connor I love Brian Harman that’s chalk I’ll eat maybe you like Russell hendley maybe like Keegan sagala go Keegan uh I like Hideki and havland in terms of the tins um ludvig Xander let’s throw Scotty into this just just because or well I would have if I could afforded them can I do nope so it has to be ludig so but if you’re willing to do a z tus you’re going to gain a lot because he’s only at least per fantasy National only projected at 3% but that’s why I’ve been doing the the superstars and scrubs cuz I’m comfortable doing or there’s there’s quite a few players in the 10 or the 6ks that I like so I’ve been just been mixing and matching essentially I’ll do Scotty Xander and then filling it out with you know like a Todd and a Cole and then the next lineup I’ll do that same thing and go like Cam Davis and uh Victor perie like I’ve just been um I’ve just been mixing and matching essentially these three I will throw in havin and and matama in some of them you know make it a Scotty and matama or a Xander and a havland I will throw in these two at the top but then just mixing and matching the 6K plays that I like you know Sheamus power Victor perie I actually don’t mind I don’t mind Andrew putam either like he’s played pretty well here don’t sleep on Andrew putam either I did want to mention Andrew putam so power perie putam Eric Cole Brennan Todd and the last one I’ll s I’ll mention is Cam Davis nothing analytically lines up for him this is just purely a gut feeling and an instinct on my part on Cam Davis but that’s what I have for you all in terms of a DFS tactic show I’ve got a couple answers to questions to answer here who’s the winner this week um for me I’m probably gonna I’m probably GNA say ludvig I’m just really really high on ludig obar this week um we had some we had some very interesting um shouts in chat Darnell mentioned Sam Burns so it looks like he is the the vote in the other for Sam Burns we had a few ludvic obar we had a few Scotty Sheffer interesting that nobody at least has put uh in a vote for Xander so um but I’ll say ludvic obar that’ll be my answer to the poll question and then in terms of one and done um despite the fact that I had Xander last week who finished in the top 10 gave me the safe floor that I wanted I was sitting in fourth now I’m down to like 13th or 14th because Bryson was so widely owned so I am going to try to need to start taking some chances if I want to climb back in the uh in the hunt for the win at least of my division for one and done having said that my first click was Brian Harmon who’s probably going to be pretty popular but he was my first click I’ve also thought about um ludvic obar I’ve um I can’t remember if I use kley at the memorial or not I might have kley available I do not have Scotty available I don’t have Xander available I do have havin available too so hin could be quite interesting this week but my first choice at least in terms of one and done was Brian Harmon so that’s where I’m at right now uh Tommy Fleet with the winner I am I if if that’s the case Derek then I’m going to have a very very bad week I’m just completely off of Tom of Tommy this week R it out pretty middling he is quite unique especially in the 9ks he looks like he is the pivot in the 9ks but not a terribly great course history um he has not played Pete die designs very well so um you know whatever mileage you want to put on that take you know use how you wish I’m I’m off of Tommy this week so if if if Tommy plays extremely well especially if he wins it’s going to be a bad week for me but I want to thank p Darnell awaken joshh Joanne and Derek for jumping in chat very much appreciated apologize again for the late start as uh as the golf scramble that I was playing went extra long uh this evening but thanks to you all for jumping in chat and thanks to everybody else out there who Tunes in watches listens and supports the channel by liking the videos commenting and subscribing I always appreciate it um love what I do taking an in-depth look at sports statistics uh trying to help us all win a little bit of money in the process some weeks it’s positive some weeks not so much uh hey Gabe thanks for jumping in there right at the end uh Play Thor bjornson I actually don’t hate Thor bjornson there were just others with data that I liked so I didn’t mention him Joanne but I don’t hate Thor bjornson especially in a no cut event um but thanks to everybody who jumped in chat reminder I’m going to be over in gabes substack chat here moment after I uh finalized the stream and all that stuff so if you’re not subscribed to gab’s article you are really missing out um we have a lot of good discussion we talk about a lot of DF we essentially continue the DFS talk over there if you’re not following Gabe his handle is in the description of the video so go show him some support I’ll be over there momentarily Gabe but thanks to everybody uh for all the support love what I do for all the Wagers you’ve made this week for The Travelers championship for all the DFS contests you play this week for The Travelers championship for this weekend and every weekend may all your bets be profitable
