U.S. Open | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data – DFS Golf & DraftKings

The TOUR heads to Pinehurst No. 2 in Pinehurst, North Carolina for the US Open. Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!

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SHOW INDEX
0:00 Intro
1:37 Course Preview
13:47 10K Range
23:47 9K Range
32:54 8K Range
39:367K Range
43:40 6K Range
52:23 Custom Model
54:43 Outro

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what’s up guys Rick here with your preview for this week’s Us open Pinehurst number two and I’m disappointed to not be going to Pinehurst this week but I’m going to look at the positives because now I’m going to be here in the studio in the war room with all my monitors and screens and data and being able to Crunch everything in real time and follow along for everything so it’ll be a little different than the other major championships that I’ve experienced this year it should be uh a great time I’m going to take the positives out of out of it and uh do as much content as much data as possible so uh before we jump into this week which is going to be a fullon data driven research episode into both Pinehurst number two but of course those who are going to be teeing it up this week at the US Open real quick announcement off the top our listener League the league that we run every single week on Splash is now the guaranteed League this week so that means they’ve guarant guaranteed $225,000 in the prize pool it’s a $20 entry you can win up to 2500 bucks it’s legal in 40 or 41 different states plus plus DC the link is in the description um check it out they’ve done we’ve they’ve done such a great job with us this year and they’ve been a really good partner um and they chose our contest again to make it the guaranteed contest for the week so um it’s great you pick one golfer from each of six tiers it’s a lot of fun we enjoy it and now we’re getting the big bump for this week so go get in there and uh see if we can fill it up or if not hey there’ll be a little bit of an overlay not bad for for anybody all right uh let’s jump into Pinehurst number two okay major championship courses are always a little bit weird always a little bit different I’m going to have to show you a lot of different resources we’re going to start with uh this is my website rickun good.com most of what you see in this episode will be from my website it’s a giant database for golf B in golf Fantasy I love it I think you’ll love it too the data that we do have is from 2014 so that’s like the some of the shotlink DAT not everything is available obviously and it’s only one year and it was 10 years ago but we do have data and you’ll see right off the bat I mean this thing’s a brute right like I don’t I don’t want to sugarcoat this I think it’s going going to be incredibly difficult um the winning score in 2014 was eight or nine under that was Martin kimer but I think there were only three guys under par he won by like seven shots or eight shots it was something outrageous one under I think was was second and I think there were only two guys under par um it is a par 70 7500 yards it is long it is I mean we could cover this from from so many so many different angles here so let’s let’s just jump into this um show you a couple of resources first off as I kind of talk through this I’m going to play this great Golf Digest video that they do for a lot of these courses called every hole at and it walks you through every single hole with Drone footage and really allows you to get an idea of how this golf course looks and how it’s going to play so I want to point out a couple of things just as we go here and maybe we’ll work our way back okay we’ll start at at at at greens and work our way back you see this style of green the the word of the week is going to be turtleback the other word of the week is going to be Wire Grass we’ll talk about both of those but we’ll start with turtleback look at how everything runs off the edges of these greens okay um I I heard someone describe it as uh trying to hit a 180 yard shot into on top of a the a Volkswagen Beetle or something like that right because everything runs off so while the greens are large 6,000 ft on average they are effectively so much smaller because every like I mean here’s number two right everything or number uh what I might have jumped around here but this is the part three where everything R everything runs off the sides there’s just no way to hold the greens you know they’re going to be firm you know they’re going to be fast the green side areas are going to be incredibly difficult so so the that was number six excuse me um the r th this is going to be a course and we saw this in 2014 as well it’s going to be difficult to hit a lot of greens and when you are around the greens you’re going to have a lot of difficult shots you’re going to need a ton of creativity so I think this week more than most the short game guys are going to be really valuable when you look at some of the approaches yes a great approach shots will be rewarded and bad approach shots will be punished but I think the G like it’s going to be G did some incredible approach shots to hold to to hold some of these greens and have and have a lot of Birdie looks I mean I mean you’re just looking here’s you know off the back here you know one yard off behind that pin everything is rolling away and there is no long grass to save you right I mean you could conceivably roll 20 yards over this green by Landing it one foot too far on the green um and that’s common there’s no there’s no thick rough here to stop your golf ball it’s also going to create more difficult shots around the green because guys are going to have to play off of tight lies the ball might be a little bit above their feet a little bit below uh maybe a little bit of a downhill a little bit of an uphill right like there’s going to be just a lot of those situations and again I’m just showing you the green complexes we haven’t even gotten to the to the to the wire grass portion of the show yet um but it’s going to be truly challenging on and around these greens okay so Turtle back that is word number one word number two is wire grass and you’ll see here from the overhead footage so this is hole number one at the 300 yard Mark 26 yards wide and what do you have again no rough it’s like no there’s no rough out here so you’re you’re not getting the long rough around the greens and you’re certainly not getting it uh left and right of the Fairway everything runs off into Sandy native areas and Wire Grass what is wire grass the best way that I can show you this is this photo from the USGA this is such a great look at it right um ball rolls right off the Fairway no first cut no primary cut nothing and then you are in the mercy of luck right is it going to lay in a flat spot or a bare spot if it is you can you know you’ll be able to access the golf ball no problem there is it going to get into to this wire grass this just like patchy thick ugly stuff that’s going to try to get your grab your golf club try to impede your swing um all of that and you’re you’re kind of just at the mercy of it right and and the I think you’re going to be able to get your Club on the ball most of the time it’ll just be a matter of how well you’re able to judge that and how much you can avoid it but it’s going to create a I believe a bigger VAR uh Delta in the scores right I think there’s you know low score might be even par and then I think you’re going to have guys who really really get unlucky and really struggle because of that that that um Sandy Wire Grass if you look at how prevalent it’s going to be again here’s hole number one at 300 yards only a 26 yard wide landing area hole number two is a little bit wider at 300 but after 300 it starts to pinch and again if you’re getting firm fast conditions it it’s not about Landing your ball in the Fairway it is about keeping it in the Fairway and you could probably see it rolling out quite a bit um hole number three is actually a shorter a shorter Par Four which you might see guys try to work it up there into the Into the Bunker uh number four is a monster here so four and five are are are just beasts of a hole I believe they played yeah four was one of the most difficult holes last year five is a a par five so there’s a little bit of a repre there but you’re talking about you know at the 300 yard Mark uh 31 yard wide 31 yards wide and then a uh 230 yard approach shot that is so hard here is the dispersion from 231 yards for tour pro okay uh there’s a lot of Miss greens here and this green is effectively a lot smaller than what you’re actually seeing cuz everything is rolling off and this is in ideal conditions right I mean these dispersions so you’re talking about balls that they’re not going to just roll one yard off and stop in thick rough they’re going to end up down here over here wire grass all that stuff needless to say I think this is going to be a very challenging test the mental side of Pinehurst number two is is also interesting because what you what you have is options right look at oh look at that look I mean and the camera always flattens uh curves and Hills like that and that still looks like it’s five five feet over your head or whatever um the the the course does not dictate one way to play it is not uh required to play it through the air it is not required to play it on the ground sometimes it’ll actually be better to play it on the ground we saw Martin kimer uh what pull he every time he missed a green he puted it right and then he just would putt it up there and knock it in and and that’s how he battled around Pinehurst number two for the week while other guys tried chipping it um so there is no one way to play the other thing is that often the best routes to take are the ones that play you towards trouble which is always great for major championships right if you if you hit a good shot and you pull it off you are rewarded by the correct way to come in great angles and all that fun stuff if you don’t pull it off you are in a worse spot and now you’re your errors start to compound that is a very cool way to play major championship golf so what are we looking for who are we looking for um I know this is kind of a a a bailout but uh you need to have an all-around game you need to be in my opinion sufficient around the greens you’re going to miss a lot of green means are you going to be able to get up and down bogie avoidance will be key uh distance is better than no distance remember this is 7500 yards on a par 70 it’s one of the longer courses we’re going to see this year um playing on hard courses playing on Long courses playing in major championships these are the things that I think are going to separate themselves so maybe at at some venues I don’t care a lot about short game I care a lot about it here right get your cam and your Patrick Reed and your Hideki Matt suyama and your Justin Thomas and you know all these guys Scotty obviously I mean getting boosts getting boosts getting boosts because of that short game ability um and then really if you take the numbers so the cool the cool thing is you know we do have the numbers from again this is only one year so it’s the reason I didn’t start with this uh we do have the numbers from 2014 they’re 10 years old and and there’s only one year uh it loves the the correlation model loves distance it loves approach play it loves around the green play it loves putting it loves te to Green play it doesn’t necessarily love off the te but it it it loves distance more than it more than it likes accuracy uh which again one year but that’s saying these are the stats that are highest uh most highly correlated to success here and then you get into some others three putt avoidance that makes sense a lot of putting stats um and if you take those numbers and you throw them on every golfer in this field over the last 36 rounds and you give each golfer an adjusted fit it is no surprise that Scotty sheffler gets the best adjusted fit he’s best player in the world best allaround player in the world Isaiah selinda is next but he does not have the number of uh requisite rounds to to be taken too seriously here Xander Schley is third Rory mroy is fourth and look who’s next cam Smith is fifth have we had a Time recently where Cam Smith has been has gotten a a good adjusted fit number like this probably not because what he does well is is really suited for this golf course we can talk more about him and some of the other live guys in a second Terell Hatton Hideki Matsuyama Windam Clark John ROM we’ve got ROM injury concerns but those are the types of golfers that uh taking their last 36 rounds plugging in the adjusted fit or plug plugging in the correlation those guys get the best boost in adjusted fit numbers that’s where we’ll stop on the course for now we have a lot more to talk about and I think there’s going to be a lot of great conversation I think this is going to play it’s going to be such a great host for this week and I I I think it’s really going to be challenging and fun but let’s uh let’s turn our attention to the field all right here it is the cheat sheet on rickun good.com we’ve got six golfers this week over $10,000 Scotty shuffler Rory mroy Xander Schley John Ron Bryson D Shambo and Brooks Kea so uh let’s just start with the man at the top here it’s it’s Scotty he’s he’s fresh off of the win at the memorial in which he gained 12.8 Strokes from Tia green uh he’s got five wins in his last seven starts his stat profile I think I said this last week I mean it looks like a typo looks like a joke he’s he’s he’s unbelievable um he’s the best player in the world it’s not even close to put that into perspective if you go to the power rankings last 36 rounds he’s gaining 3.2 Strokes per round Xander shley is gaining 2 point for so he’s 8/10 of a stroke nearly a full stroke better than number two which is the same Gap from number two to number eight nine uh couple guys with some small sample sizes at the US Open but he is a full stroke better oh a stroke and a quarter better than Rory mroy which is the third best golfer which is the same gap between him and Rory as there is a gap to golfer uh 45ish right like it’s just it’s that big and ever since he figured out the putter after Riviera um he’s been Unstoppable and I I don’t see that changing anytime soon the fact that the two biggest shots that he hit on Sunday at mirfield Village were putts was very encouraging even though he lost Strokes putting for the day on Sunday gained big for the week or gained for the week and I mean he was lipping things out on Sunday but he rolls in a 16-footer on 16 to make par massive spot and then the cut for all the marbles 4T 9 in down the hill um slippery knowing that if he misses it he’s going to a playoff in all likelihood with k morawa um and he buries it for the win I mean that’s the highest pressure moment that you can get um and he pulls it off which what with with what is supposed to be the weakest part of his game and the rest of it Stellar I I think that uh I think that Pinehurst number two is going to be a very strategic golf course I think that he’s not only the best in execution I think he is the best in strategy as well so uh All You Can Eat Here on Scotty Sheffer I’ll also be really interested to see what the ownership is which we’ll talk about on the live chat Wednesday at 4 pm eastern time this week have a little commitment just before so pushing it back an hour 400 PM eastern time uh set your alarms don’t miss out on that the rest of this 10K range is really fascinating um I think it’s pretty clear that Xander schle at 11,5 00 is probably the second best player in the world right now uh that Leap Frogs Rory mroy I think Rory uh had a really good chance at Valhalla uh was or I I should say it was a course that set up really well for him I think that there are you know Quail Hollow obviously sets up really well for him I’m not as sure about how uh Pinehurst sets up for Rory but we’ll talk about that in a second here’s Xander and so so first start after the PGA Championship victory first major it’s kind of like okay what what are we going to get out of him I’m not sure what we’re going to get out of him well he he finished T8 he lost Strokes on approach for the first time since beill he puted the lights out I I think that um I would have given him a lot of Grace and a lot of slack for for basically any result that he put together at mirfield Village the fact that he put together a top eight a T8 without even gaining on approach and considering that’s something he does week in and week out um that’s probably the on the better end of things so I I think Xander is probably the value of the 10K range because he’s $600 cheaper than Rory he’s $1,500 cheaper than Scotty sheffler and I think he should probably be priced at like 122 123 something of that nature Rory mroy is unbelievably talented I love his game I actually think he’s underrated in some respects I I think that of all the major championship venues that we get on a regular basis or have gotten in recent years this one feel feels like it’s below average for Rory and it’s it’s not that I don’t think he can contend and compete but this is not you know this is not look Valhalla we knew he was going to gain five and a half Strokes off the T we knew he was going to gain six Strokes at the Wells Fargo at at Quil Hollow we knew that and that was going to and we knew that that was going to make up a pretty significant chunk of of how many strokes he was going to gain over the course of the entire week there is no guarantee he does that that this week um yes I think his driver will be a weapon but he’s going to have to hit very solid second shots which he’s been much better at this year but has still shown times to get into trouble he has been uh capable of putting together putting big cards on the number right his bogey avoidance and and big number avoidance isn’t great compared to these other high-priced uh golfers I think he has an underrated around the green game but this is going to test every facet of it so I still believe that Rory is above average he’s probably um one of the top I mean certainly one of the top five or six players in this field that can win it I just don’t think this is nearly as good of a setup as other majors and other US Open setups have been for him and then the final three guys here are the the live golfers that are really interesting so so I don’t know uh there’s a lot of just oxygen being spent on John ROM right now you know he WDS um during the second round round of Liv golf Houston last week in which I believe the official uh reason was that he has a blister in between his toes I do not know I mean it sounds painful sounds horrible I would hate that that would drive me crazy I do not know how that’s going to affect him moving forward but what I do know is looking back it’s been a pretty subpar year for ROM miscut the PGA Championship t-45 at at the Masters he has not won on live yet he’s played fine but he hasn’t won when I was following him and I followed him a lot at Valhalla and I I have followed John Ram a lot uh over the last couple of years at at majors at PGA Tour events at live golf events and at even Majors this year since he’s gone to live golf events and I have never seen him the way that he was at Valhalla which was an incredibly frustrated golfer from the first t a very um I mean he’s always intense so it wasn’t that it was just like almost just constantly on the verge of melting down very frustrated did not look like he was having any fun I know this is all anecdotal but that’s that’s what I saw and it was very strange because I’ve seen a lot of John ROM the other concern that’s not anecdotal is that now for four straight events he’s lost Strokes on approach and I do get um so rickr good.com one of the things I’m most proud of is I get all the Liv Strokes gains I get all the PGA Tour Strokes gain the European D European tour Strokes gained so I I have all of the data for all of these guys and you can see that this is a pretty significant concern when it comes to Romo if any of this is helpful or interesting uh hit the like button it helps my channel a lot um then you get Bryson and Brooks uh Bryson you know this this feels a little I don’t I I better be careful what I say here but um there are some similarities to the style of golf that will be required at Pinehurst as what we saw at Augusta National and let me explain you know because I understand they’re very different but um no rough on the golf course but getting into trouble if you’re if you’re um if you’re offline and out of it the the landing zones are going to be much smaller here than they are at Augusta National and then what I really mean is that it’s going to require a lot of creativity um on and around the greens and we saw Bryson have a really good Masters week but he lost Strokes around the green I because of the narrow nature and the randomness if you do Miss off the tea at Pinehurst I would find it very difficult to believe he gains another seven strokes off the tea like he did at the M you just can’t bomb it around Pinehurst like you can at Augustin naal so similar to Rory this feels like it skew as one of the worst uh US Open venues for him you know if you go back to you know we’ve got the uh last five years loaded in here that win at wingedfoot in September of 2020 I mean that’s just just an absolute perfect setup for Bryson Valhalla unbelievable setup for Bryson um this not so much in my opinion so so kind of down on Bryson but looking for the bounceback ability from Brooks um you know I I think there was a lot of there were there were very high expectations for Brooks the PGA Championship because he was coming off the the win at Liv he finished T20 six but he wasn’t bad in fact he was pretty good he gained in all um all all across his bag his his Saturday round is really the only thing that that cost him um he gained over three Strokes to the field every other day he just played himself out of it in one round and on when this gets really firm really fast and guys start to eject and it turns into a really big boy bloodbath major championship that’s when I want my Brooks kka to show up still having the putting troubles lost two and a half Strokes putting and live Houston um GC of uh golf club of Houston in only three rounds that’s concerning but I think this is a pretty good uh bounceback spot for him after he was very popular at the PGA and probably let some people down the 9k range has a lot of really interesting things going on here um so first of all Victor hland who you know I declared as we’re back baby and went off and and touched I mean he touched the the winning number last week he was at eight under uh at one point on Friday and then the weekend was was just really bad for victory lost 3.8 Strokes on Saturday and he basically shot the you know it was like a 75 or whatever which was the field average on on Sunday which wasn’t particularly great um lost it around the greens again which which this is this is the concern is Victor going to get exposed around these greens or is he going to play to a zero and even though we’ve seen six good Rounds Around the green since going getting back with Joe Mayo the fact that his last two he lost big in both of them and I know he got a little bit unlucky he had um like a he had like a fried egg on on one of them and had to play it basically back down the Fairway I do worry about uh Pinehurst kind of exposing and and and the ability to to put up some of those big numbers around the green um lud VI oberg no we is Led everybody down at the PGA Championship with one of the best miscuts you could ask for finished T5 the memorial uh we are now basically one exactly one year into his uh pro career right he turned Pro right around this time last year so if we just go back and you know since since he turned Pro which would have been uh June of 2023 so we’ll just call it June 1st I think it was mid June he is the fifth best player in the world okay Scotty sheffler 2.4 Strokes gain per round Rory mroy two Xander and Bryson 1.7 ludvig 1.6 better than Rah better than Victor better than Colin better than everybody but those four ahead of him and major championship go it feels a lot like you know will Al torus as he was getting kind of into his first couple major championships major championship golf feels like the best place for lud I mean Sunday was a major at mirfield Village played played three Strokes over par played to a 75 Shane Lowry shot like an 87 or something and he was able to put together uh a 74 which gains a stroke to the field he’s just he’s just so good I cannot I cannot continue um to say that the rest of this range so so real quick um I’m going to need to see more from from Patrick Klay I’m going to need to see something from Patrick Klay when you finish t50 when you’re have when you’re having the worst season that you you’ve had as a professional and you uh don’t play well at the PGA Championship you miss the cut at Mir me for mirfield Village which is a place that you’ve dominated you are now struggling to hit Fairways and greens which is going to get exasperated here plus the US Open hasn’t always been your greatest um your greatest major yeah I’m I’m I’m out I’m I’m going to need to see something I I tried to build the case for him I was I I gave him one more crack at mirfield Village because of what he did at harbort toown just kind of flipping the the switch at a place that’s been really good for him I’m out there Windam Clark and I want to be I want to be fair here Windam Clark is our defending Champion um Windam Clark in my opinion statistically and anecdotally is nowhere near that level um I’ll pull up his his profile here but in the same way you know what what I saw at um Valhalla with John Rah I took note of because it was incredibly unusual and I’ve never seen Rah like that before I saw a lot of similar things with Windam Clark you know it’s it’s hard to it’s impossible to quantify but when you see a guy who from the jump is incredibly frustrated looks like he’s grinding looks like nothing is working for him you see the I mean he’s boiling I’m talking about Windam Clark as well here just boiling all the time that’s a concern and then when you match that with this really big downturn in approach play right the thing that the thing that turned Windam Clark from uh an an average Joe on the PGA tour to a major Champion was that he figured out how to hit those second shots and as soon as he did that and he saw gains there he pops off and wins the Wells Fargo he wins the US Open he wins the Pebble Beach proam like it’s just it’s just it’s it’s crazy and now we’re in the midst of a six event stretch in which he’s lost and lost pretty significantly uh plus the fact that his putter has been hit or miss which is usually a strength of his his short game is not good enough the last six starts for Windam Clark have been a disaster um and this is a place that is going to expose a lot of weaknesses that leaves colum morow is the only guy that we haven’t talked about here I think he’s going to be popular and I think he should be I we’ve been tracking this approach trend from him for the last handful of weeks um if we go back to so let’s go back to the Masters here so let’s go back to 414 or 4 whatever that week was four I’m going the wrong way four uh 11 would have been the first would have been that Thursday so um since the masters of golfers who have let’s see let’s do PGA Tour rounds only because those will all be measured rounds come on my my computer wants to run slow when we’ve got um when I’ve got like my screen recording and everything and everything rocking and rolling here let’s see Colin has gained a half a stroke per round on approach and7 Strokes off the T so he’s gaining 1.26 Strokes ball striking which is the most of anybody with as many rounds I’m twisting that a little bit uh because Scotty’s been way better but he has five fewer rounds right I am twisting that a little bit but of guys that have a decent sample size Scotty Sheffer Aaron Ry Xander Victor hin Rory mroy sep sta Colin morawa and that’s the class you expect Colin to be in right you expect him to be in that class of elite approach play look what his putter has done five of the last six he’s gained at least a stroke on the putting surfaces he’s gaining off the tea in every event dating back to Bay Hill um he’s very accurate off the te which is going to be helpful here his short game is underrated and I saw some very confident putts not only throughout the week but on Sunday in particular when he gave Scotty shefer basically all he could handle right basically all he could handle picking up four shots to the field on Sunday and closing that Gap I think Colin is back and and and playing playing really well quick note um that Splash contest is the links in the description is $25,000 guaranteed this is our listener league for this week I talked about at the top of the show but I know a lot of you guys skipped that um and then also there were a handful of small uh but very very helpful um updates that were pushed to rickun good.com so there’s now more preset filters here so if you just want to click into the field that these golfers are in and quickly see the tournament history you can do that if you quickly want to sort by uh their wins or their podiums or their top 10 or Majors or Seasons or tours or all that you can you can do that now you can collapse a lot more stuff and get this to be a little bit more user friendly so there’s just a little little nuggets throughout the um throughout the tools that you’ll notice salary and projected ownership is now on the golfer profile page so cool cool stuff like that always looking to make improvements as as much as possible before we jump into the akk range I love going to like starting here and going to the the trends tool because I want to find guys who are hot who’s playing above their Baseline in the last 12 24 36 whatever that looks like and let’s go 24 rounds and see if we can find some 8K golfers not really the AK is a little bit of a void for heat right now um max hom is playing a little bit better in the last 24 than his 100 round Baseline let’s see what else we have here yeah I mean it’s really Hideki has been has been better that’s what this tool does it looks at whatever number of rounds that you put in and Compares it to their 100 round Baseline uh and then shows you how they how they’ve been playing so this is kind of a weird void they’re big names but guys that are not necessarily playing um to their long-term self if that makes sense uh I’m not going to waste your time and energy on Justin Thomas I’m a Justin Thomas believer if you are not that’s fine I just see it in the stats he’s a great approach player his short game is underrated yes we have a problem with the putter uh yes he’s disappoints more often than not he’s not expensive enough to deter me so $8,900 is interesting cam Smith will be a very popular guy this week because people are going to know that this is a course that will allow you to play it on the ground it will allow you to tap into your creativity it will allow you to use your short game I cannot stress caution enough this this to me looks terrifying I I realize he finished six at the Masters he has not gain Strokes off the tea since Liv Jetta at the end of 2023 he has lost Strokes in Liv Fields basically every time he’s teed up this year uh losing on approach I mean that that is not really that’s not cam Smith yes Cam Smith is a short game specialist and cam Smith often loses Strokes off the te he’s a very good second shot player not anymore I mean he’s been miserable now he’s even lost Strokes putting at both the PGA and Liv golf Houston he tied Anthony Kim at Liv golf Houston lost five and a half Strokes from Tia green and another two and a half with the putter I don’t know if this is the sleeper that everybody is going to hope that it is uh we can find other guys who are going to be you know overlooked who have historically gr around the green games pretty easily right we can go to the power rank ings we can sort this by around the green we can go to the last 100 rounds and make sure everybody has you know at least 50 rounds and see what we find and even looking for guys in the in a similar price range um Hideki Justin Thomas both better Terell Hatton nearly as good and and cheaper Jason day cheaper I just don’t think that this is is going to be as great as as everyone hopes it is um the rest of this range is there’s okay so there’s a couple of things you talked about Hideki a lot Hideki brings on a lot of WD risk we know that if you can get past that he’s got an unbelievable around the green game he’s a ball striking Phenom he uh plays well when it gets more difficult played well last week at mirfield Village let’s look up his open his US Open I’m going to say Open Championship like 10 times his US Open um stuff here I got to let it load first that’s on me um you know second at Aaron Hills 16th 21st 17th 26th 4th and 32nd so that is every cut made since 2017 no worse than a 32nd in any of them in fact he’s only missed one cut and he finished 35th here in 2014 he’s one of the handful of guys who played this in 2014 that was I I understand that was 10 years ago but um hadi’s been around a long time and playing well at major championships a long time if you can stomach it I think it’s interesting I think Tommy Fleetwood is a good not great option I wish I saw more out of will zat Tores um last week right I that that was one of the guys that I said I was just I was just waiting to see what he was going to do what were we going to get we got a losing week with the putter but even more concerning we got some really bad approach weeks and now zalatoris looks like he’s regressing a little bit and I’m I’m concerned this sneaky guy out of this range in my opinion is Matt Fitzpatrick um so let’s let’s get a little freaky here if you guys if you guys don’t mind very quietly finishes T5 last week doesn’t gain Strokes on approach which is a little bit concerning but he did gain two on Sunday uh his season has been all over the place he’s got good results he’s got bad results we know he had the issue where he like forgot that he had a weight in the grip of his driver and once he fixed that he fixed it let me point out a couple of things to you this is a very strategic golf course I’ve said that a thousand times it reminds me a lot of TPC sass in the strategy which is where uh Matt Fitzpatrick finished fifth it reminds me in difficulty of the Sunday that we just had at mirfield Village T5 and he gains six Strokes to the field on Sunday he’s a US Open winner his short game is good enough he is gonna play a practice round Monday with Jason scner Victor havland and Ed eduard Molinari uh let me see if I can share this so here’s the Monday current Monday practice te times okay now this is I mean we’re we’re deep in it now but it’s the US Open so we we would want to be so that group has has two different nines so they’re playing 18 together 209 they’re going off number one 315 they’re going off number 10 why is this important um Victor hin is a highly strategic golfer so is mat Fitzpatrick very data driven very um strategic anded water Molinari is basically uh the decade guy for the EUR for the Eur right so the the the strategy of how to play golf cours is Eduardo Molinari is is that guy um for a lot of professional golfers and especially a lot of of of European guys was a big part of the Ryder Cup team and their stats and their information so when you go to a golf course that not a lot of guys have played where I think it’s going to be highly strategic I want 18 holes with this group right they are going to download so much information on Monday I cannot wait so just throwing it out there there’s a lot of good things in Matt Fitzpatrick’s uh favor here there’s some really interesting names here in the 7K range uh probably going to need to see more out of Jordan spe just can’t do it right now Terrell haton I think might be one of the more valuable plays on the Slate $7,900 $7,800 excuse me uh routinely gains throughout the bag has a very sound and tidy short game has played decent golf right like when we were doing those rankings and we were doing a lot of those different like Terell Hutton’s name pops up a lot um I think I think we could be in for maybe the best US Open result for well I guess it wouldn’t be that hard T6 at shinok is his best result um and you look at his major championship stuff even recently T9 at the Masters this year uh and that was the end of four straight top 27s he finished t63 at the PGA Championship where he lost a ton of Strokes on approach over the the final two days and kind of gave that gave that thing up but um had a good first couple of days as well I think he’s very very live I think Shane Lowry is just fulls gold right he has put he is uh I mentioned this on CBS Sports um during one of our live hits he was running so good and continues to be over the course of the last couple weeks right he gains like nine and a half Strokes putting at the PGA Championship he h out multiple times from all over the yard at me Memorial he is on the upside of the Bel like the outline higher curve and it all came crashing down in round four last week on Sunday and I think it’s probably still coming back down to earth that is super scary and he’s going to Mo he might model somewhat wellc maybe not because that 10 Strokes gained or 10 Strokes that he lost um uh on Sunday but like he could model well and I think it’s kind of Fool’s Goldie the Tom Kim stuff I don’t know what happened to the putter at mirfield Village cuz it looked like he had plugged that leak dating back to Harbortown I love to see this I’m loving the ball striking that we’re getting from Tom Kim he’s putting the ball in the Fairway uh much more frequently now he seems to be getting those second shots dialed in I’m willing to forgive this and I think $7,300 is a pretty good price for Tom Kim and then the other thing okay actually I’ve got there’s a lot down here at the bottom of this range Sam Burns quietly playing better he has not had the major championship career that I think a lot of us were expecting at this point but um played well at the memorial played well at the Canadian open played well at WS Fargo he did miss the cut the PGA Championship but listen there were a lot of guys that that missed the cut of the PGA Championship his major championship record is poopy it’s horrible right I mean he’s missed three straight cuts um his best finish ever is a 20th at the PGA Championship in 2022 I’m going to be very very brave here and say sam Burns has his best major championship performance of his career might be a t18 might not win you any money at all but I think we are ready for it I think it is here sunj m is long for my heart and always has a spot in it but we are talking about a $7,100 player who is a proven sound short game player gained eight last week he’s not going to do that again but it’s not out of their own possibilities because he gained seven at Quail Hollow too right and he gains multiple Strokes uh in the short game categories a lot who has not lost Strokes off the te since Honda cognizant and is kind of giving us life on approach a little bit still giving us some bad rounds here and there and now has four top 12 finishes in his last five starts yeah I like that guy he’s not going to miss every cut at Majors this year right he missed the one the Masters missed one with the PGA Championship I think sunj is is is trending beautifully $6,900 and below this is where you saw a lot of those Trend guys right guys that are playing over their head you saw guys in the 6K range you saw guys in the 5K range um there are a couple that you know are are pretty I don’t want to say they’re mispriced because major championships are are um usually very soft pricing but but look at this so in terms of Strokes gain Trend so taking golfers last 24 rounds adding it or subtracting it from their 100 round Baseline creating a new number Dean burter is like the 12th best player in this field he’s 6,800 sep straa is right at John ROM level right now because ROM’s playing down and sta is playing up based on baselines he’s 6,500 Billy horel who’s been great 6600 Alex noren 69 Baden ho 62 Russell Henley 69 I mean these are these are feasting numbers um I you know I won’t I don’t I mean I guess if you’re here maybe you want to see it I was going to say I won’t bore you with all of these guys but because you probably haven’t been paying attention to what’s going on on Liv Dean burmaster has been crushing it he won Liv golf Miami and that was after a leadup of two wins in December on the DP World Tour some good golf on live and then he continued it with two straight uh top 15s and then he finished 12th at the PGA Championship finished 18th in Liv Houston last week that’s a bunch of green on this stat profile oh my God I love I mean norin norin bounces right back after the Mis cut of the RBC Canadian and finishes t22 at the memorial he is a bogey avoidance guy he is a grinded out guy right let’s look at these numbers again boom still lost on approach very good short game this dates back to the start of the year who else was on that list Billy horel Billy hell I believe also charged a bit I think he at least got into the top 30 last week let’s see uh T oh my gosh yeah t-15 I mean Billy’s run he wins Pana then struggles a little bit no no worries T8 to PGA t24 to Charles Schwab T5 Memorial he’s playing Great Golf how about Keegan Bradley right we’ve been tracking Keegan Bradley Keegan Bradley 6,800 bucks we’ve been tracking Keegan Bradley forever he was bad over the weekend at the memorial still finished t43 is putting great that’s the thing that unlocks the rest of him that was a stretch of three straight top 21 finishes including a second sep straa we haven’t talked about sep straka is so much better now than he was a year ago he finds the Fairway more than just about anybody else on the PG G tour he’s got back-to-back top five finishes he has this man sep straa has six top 16 finishes in his last seven starts he hits more Fairways than just about anybody he’s gained three or more Strokes to the field in like all of those starts his short game is tidy what are we doing with SE straa at $6,500 and then Christian bazen hot who got off to a really good start last week and was able to finish uh fourth at Memorial he’s put together a great play uh ever since he kind of he switched coaches is what he did and his uh approach play has gotten much better and he’s always been one of the best Putters in the world you could conceivably make a pretty darn good lineup from the 6K golfers alone seriously if you wanted to roll out okay if you wanted to roll out Scotty and any combination of norin burer Keegan uh horel sep straa um chrisan bazen hot Adrien Moran Russell Henley I think you’d be fine I seriously think you’d be pretty fine let’s look up let’s look up Moran I was all over Moran like four weeks ago I was betting him left and right did not end up working out I loved him at the PGA Championship that did not oh was the Masters I loved him at I can’t remember I think it was the PJ Championship Miss cut Miss to cut the B so it doesn’t matter it was either one um he’s been great on live I I think it’s worth another shot he’s such a talented putter he’s a great driver I do worry about the short game I do worry that maybe the moment that like the stage is too big for him quite honestly because his major championship performance has not been good Tiger Woods is here anytime I get a chance to show Tiger Woods stat profile I’m going to show it uh you will not see me investing in Tiger Woods unless it’s a Fades of Tiger but just for old memory here’s what I’m going to do I’m going to do tigers majors and tigers Majors wins and we’re just going to look at this beautiful profile in which he gained so many strokes to the field all of his major championship wins just absolutely gorgeous but going to be tough to back the big cat at 6,400 bucks I kind of want to get into some of these guys that you know you might not heard have heard a lot about you know Tom McKibbon is here um so he’s playing primarily on the European tour T8 at the European open that’s a big event for them t23 at the China open t7 at the isps Handa so he’s got four top 23s with three of them being to I mean actually I probably need to click his profile it’s it’s that good I mean if you’re at this point in the show you you’re here for this so here’s Tom mckibben’s profile yeah and and the metrics that we do have from the European tour very good driver pretty well-rounded good stuff there from from Tom Victor Perez has played well back-to-back starts 12th and third now we start to get to the spot that I I get a little bit worried here um I think the 6K range is packed with great options I don’t know that the 5K range is David P is remotely interesting he qualified into this event um open qualified t three in Houston fifth at the Sai open he’s been playing a lot of good golf all over the globe you can see finished second in Macau he won in Malaysia earlier this year 10th in Oman very talented International golfer and he earned his way into this field but I think it’s very highrisk high reward Harry higs won back-to-back starts on the on the corn fairy tour before missing the cut last week finds a lot of Fairways and a lot of greens I I’ve been bull so like I also kind of know where to uh draw the line sometimes I’ve been very high on Nick Dunlap I think I will suspend that for a week and worry about that later down the road there’s just not a lot to love this far down the list Tim whiting’s been great on the corn fairy but that’s about it um I do like okay so I will tell you this Frankie sappin I talk about Frankie sappin all the time and anybody if if if you listen to anybody who calls him Frankie cappen they don’t know they don’t know what they’re talking about that’s just a good like you know if someone says oh I hit a birdie it’s like you know they’re a fraud that’s how you know they’re a fraud so Frankie sappin um is he’s great I got my first exposure to him last year at the at the US Open and he’s super talented he’s been great on the corn fairy he’s got um a bunch of top 10 just in the last handful of of of weeks very very good player I 5400 he also qualified his way in which I which I love what else we got down here Isaiah celinda will will grade really really well um just a small sample size thing he’s not a bad player but just keep keep that mind wow there are a lot of Min price golfers we are going to get so you know full disclosure I am um I’m doing this mon uh Sunday night after the after the um conclusion of the memorial so I know the results of that but like Adam Scott is going to be added to this field uh on Monday when the when the new owgr stuff comes out so this will change a little bit that Wednesday live chat will be um will be really helpful again Wednesday 4 pm Eastern Time custom model let’s run a model so go sign up for Rick run good . you get access to all the tours all the tools all the player profiles and the custom model so here’s what we’re going to do for this week we need a well-rounded golfer with a sound short game so here’s what we’re going to do we are going to do uh well first off let’s do our weighted Strokes gain total um just 10 just give everybody a baseline right just 10 weights there give everybody a baseline then we are going to go Strokes gain around the green last 50 I want you to be like be pretty talented less 100 for a long time 20 Strokes gain putting last 24 10 Strokes gain approach last 24 20 Strokes gained off the te last 24 15 and then what I’ll also do is I will hit an extra five on accuracy we are going to go to um long courses and hard courses so let’s put 10 on each of those that’s all of our weights do we want to do something else like bogey avoidance if we did Bogey avoidance we’d have to take off of something oh well we can do that on Wednesday all right so my my number one golfer no surprise Scotty sheffler Xander 2 morawa three that’s pretty big Rory for ludvig Hideki Tommy Fleetwood Bryson Alex noren Aaron Ry is my top 10 JT Justin Thomas 11th phenow Hatton Henley and ROM round out the top 15 yeah Brooks is 16th Victor is 17th Fitzpatrick’s 21st just trying to see if there’s any big outliers here I’m going to um I going to favor Billy Hall and some of these guys in that 6K range that I I I really liked um sep straa bazen ho just so I have access to these guys later okay I’m gonna stop there we’re going to do a lot more this week I’ve got a newsletter coming out you can sign up for that rickrungood docomo the link to everything you need is always in the description if you like this hit the like button if you really like it subscribe to rickun good.com um yeah I’ll see you guys Wednesday good luck