Hang out with Matty Kiwoom on The Game Plan presented by PlayerProfiler. Today, he is joined by PlayerProfiler’s Offensive Line Analyst, Dan Fornek. The guys are talking about the best and worst offensive lines in the NFL as well as players that are going to SMASH their ADP. Matty and Dan are here to help you dominate your fantasy football leagues.
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[Music] what up player profiler faithful it’s your boy mad keyw welcome to the latest episode of the game play and today ladies and gentlemen we are getting into the trenches I have a very special guest lined up today because we’re talking about offensive line some of the things we’re looking for some of the offensive line specifically that we like to help us with our fantasy relevant players and then we’re going to dive into a little bit of my guest 2024 Awards it’s going to be a great a certified bangover an episode so you’re definitely gonna want to stick around watch it because we are going to get it kicked off right now ladies and gentlemen get out your pens get out your pads and let’s start game planning to dominate or excuse me fantasy [Music] leaks planners my guest today is the raing defending article of the Year Creator he is the offensive lineman analyst here at the player profiler Network work he also contributes for other sites uh I’m going to actually look it up to make sure I do not get right ftn fantasy he also is a writer uh for I’m actually ask myself my roto baller offensive line Guru Dan forck what’s up danad what’s up Maddy how you doing it’s I’m excited to be here this has been one of my favorite shows throughout the offseason so if you’re watching this if you’re listening to this if you’re not putting this everywhere so people could find it then you’re doing all your friends a dis Serv yes you are you but you might be getting an edge in your boys do you ever do any of that do you ever like ever stumble upon some info and you’re like I need to bear this yeah no one can find this so Dan we were talking pre-show about the Bears we’re very excited about the Bears right this year this is the year of Hope for the Bears yeah you can’t uh as a Bears fan I’ve learned you can’t hope too hard um because it always it never goes well but you know having a good quarterback having an offense that’s discovered the how to pass the forward pass that’s going to be just Illuminating I can’t wait to see that um you know I’ve heard good things from other people but I’m excited to witness it myself don’t have too much hope but I think you have a little bit of hope I’m excited I’m definitely excited about this team I want to ask you this specifically it’s not in the show notes but since you this is your expertise what did you think about the Kieran emaj uh omaj draft selection because I thought that kid was very talented I thought slipped a little bit and was just sitting there waiting for the Bears to take him I I I love picks like that especially on day two um was it maybe your most pressing need no but you have Braxton Jones who was a late round pick a couple years ago you’re fortified at right tackle with Darnell right um taking an upside swing on somebody with just that level of tools and that like level of traits yeah he’s coming off an injury he’s but you’re not expecting anything from him this year but right in two years when Braxton Jones’s deal is up he may be your left tackle and he’s got all the size all the speed all the tools to do that so I like taking that shot especially when you know you’re going to have a rookie quarterback let’s just fortify the line yeah they’re fortifying the line they they got a whole bunch of offensive weapons you talked about some of of kin’s uh traits somebody ask you this kind of like from a big picture perspective what are the traits that you’re looking for when you’re an analyzing or evaluating an offensive line so if we’re we’re talking about football what I’m looking for the we have an increasingly pass heavy League now so everything’s goingon to kind of revolve around passing to a degree that doesn’t mean the Run game doesn’t matter it’s just you know the the rankings are going to be swayed much like fantasy with the volume the passing so the big one is pressures pressure rate um you know everyone says Sachs is the worst outcome but pressures beat up a quarterback pressures force you to get the ball out they force you you know to maybe not go to or throw the ball Rush the ball to your first read um in 2023 if you look at the top 32 quarterbacks every team starter you know from last year obviously we have some rookies we don’t know how they’re going to perform um there was a 15 nearly 16% drop in completion percentage when pressured quarterbacks were a yard per attempt they dropped a yard on average because they have to get the ball out so you know there there wasn’t a single quarterback some are better at others Dak is fantastic against pressure but for the most part quarterbacks when they have to speed up that’s when things go wrong you know that’s when you’re breaking the pocket um that’s when bad things seem to happen and then obviously sacks can kill a play um you want to look for the units that are giving up a lot of sacks and then just generally time to pressure time to throw how long does the how long can the quarterback set up in the pocket can they get rid of the ball can they get a downfield um you know how far into the play can they get and then for the Run game it’s it’s really simple um we’re looking at yards per attempt and we’re looking at yards before contact and that one’s kind of the underrated one because the further a running back can get before contact the more chances you have to open up a lane and the second level the more ability they have to get some steam as they’re going so that’s when you start to see those Breakaway chunk plays is because the running back is able to get further down field to make their cut or to get their angle and so I I kind of clue in a lot on yards before contact I remember this game I believe it was the Raiders and the the Lions I know it was the Lions I’m pretty sure it was the Raiders or maybe the Chargers but they needed a third and one they ran a stretch to the right side of the field David Montgomery and he was able to get two yards before he was even contact that offense yard I oh yeah EX and just destroy them yeah that’s and that’s what Detroit is right now they’re they are road graders they are going to kick your ass they’re going to do everything they need to do to get those two yards and and they’re going to get them it doesn’t matter really what you do how good is pen is he generational so I’ll have an article coming out for player profile player profiler here soon that’s going through top 10 every position um I’m just going to go ahead and tell you pan is probably he is the number one right tackle in the NFL and if you were to rank just the top offensive lineman he’s he’s two because Trent Williams is Ageless and you just can’t you can’t put it’s almost like a a badge of honor you can’t put Trent Williams anywhere but one as long as he’s active yes you know I do the quarterback rankings here at Player Pro and that’s how I feel about Ramsay second he came back from injury it was just like oh he’s just awesome again it doesn’t matter if he’s older on his third team doesn’t matter some of these guys are are absolutely Timeless I love it so pen Su he’s just one of those guys that like you just see him destroy folks over and over on the right side of the field I love it he’s he’s stellar and at some point I’m sure he’ll be on the Tristan Worf’s path when they get move off a Decker they’ll probably flip him to the left side and it’s flipping from right to left is one of the hardest things to do just it it’s all it’s all in your head um you know I when I was in in college I kind of did the flip and everything is just backwards and so you have to kind of think not just in regards to your feet but like okay I have to block that guy but like now how do I get there because he’s over there and I’m over here but I’m usually over there so it it’s it’s not easy now these guys are NFL players you you would hope that with an offseason they could get there but just flipping your foot bark and understanding that like every play is the opposite you know for that’s not the easiest thing to do but I’m sure someone like pen will just do it and because he did it in college it’ll just that’ll be what it is like okay good now he’s the best left tackle in the NFL fantastic we got there Trent Williams retires and he’s the the new king of the left side but this is why you know I love having conversations uh with people with the expertise much like you know yourself D because now the planners watching here listening on podcast whichever uh they can have a little takeway so I want to ask you in the season if a let’s say week seven and the team’s right tackle is having to shift over to left abruptly you know from seven week seven to week eight based on injury should we worry about the operations for that week is it that tough to make a trans transition in one week I think it is a concern um you have I mean these guys are all professional they are top 1% athletes in the world they’re top 1% football players guys can do it but I think it’s kind of interesting that you know a lot of teams will specifically deploy a swing tackle somebody who works in practice on the left side and the right side it may make more sense to go with a lesser player who’s comfortable on the left side because if you flip the other guy to right you’re weakening two positions you’ve now got a guy out of position on the left side and you’ve got a backup on the right side well if he doesn’t do well on the left side you you’ve actually weakened two different spots on your offensive line which is probably not what you want to do whereas if you just go with your swing guy you go with your true backup at least you know your other four offensive linemen are good at what they do right and Dan if you didn’t know this already I’m I’m a dynasty sicko a fantasy football sicko and you’ve just made me even more of a sickle because not only will I be looking at injury reports of the fantasy relevant players but I will be diving into the injury reports regarding these tackles because if there is that type of switch I’m going to be a little bit more cautious going into it because yeah I don’t I don’t like the hurry the hurries cause turnovers the turnovers mean my fantasy guys can’t score any points uh we talked a little about Trent Williams we talked about pen Su in the Lions offensive line as a whole but so who are some of your favorite or or say what what offensive line units are some of your favorites uh I mean this list has to start with Detroit we’ve already talked about them a little bit um Graham Glascow played really well for them last year they were hoping he’d be their sixth guy injuries made him really one of their starting guards and he played well enough they kept him um they also kind of raised the floor a little bit um they let their guards walk but they brought in Kevin zeitler he’s getting old but I mean he’s still one of the best recards in the game and so now you’re just going to plug him into a unit that was already good uh they gave up just 14 sacks as a unit last year which is an amazingly low number considering how much they passed the ball um Indianapolis they they bring back five of their starters and four of them are very very good um Bernard Raymond who is a second round for I believe leave Central Michigan a couple years ago um he he was amazing last year he he looked good as a rookie and he got better but I would say probably my favorite offensive line and it’s probably too early to anoint them to put them at the top of the list but I love what the Pittsburgh Steelers are doing um how can you not they they had a solid foundation last year they brought in Isaac somalo um he didn’t give up a single sack last year he was a 71.9 PF guy they got a first round right right tackle last year brri Jones um he may flip to the left they haven’t really declared who’s going where yet and then this year they add Troy fatano who is my favorite tackle in the class I love the undersized guys who just they just kick your ass and it’s with him it’s so technically sound like he’s so athletic I think he’s a tackle in the NFL I think you have to try him at tackle in the NFL I know people are you know oh he’s not six foot seven but he’s got the arm length he’s got the athleticism you know he might be ran Slater 2.0 like you have to at least give him that chance Um Zack Frasier was just a I think he could have been if he doesn’t get hurt in West Virginia season I think he could have been the top Center like right without a doubt I mean fouryear starter fouryear state champion wrestler you see it in his film he just likes hitting guys he always wins with leverage which is the wrestling and then even even the day three guy they took Mason McCormack um dude is just a glass eater like he is an ass kicker he is and you don’t need you don’t yeah you don’t need him this year you have one more year of James Daniels contract you could figure it out from there if you like what McCormick gives you you plug them in like I just think Pittsburgh you know they’re synonymous with just kicking ass on the ground and I think that’s the offensive line they finally have it was a couple bad years um but I think they’re kind of getting back to that and it’s just it’s gonna be the unit that I probably enjoy watching the most next year like of the ones that you know you always love you watch Detroit and it’s like oh there they go pushing guys five yards off the ball again but Pittsburgh has a fun blend of like young guys who I really like and just that mentality of we’re gonna kick your ass on the ground such nasty players and that’s kind of the Mike tomman way that’s what he builds his his Clubhouse have the strong nasty players and then not to mention not for nothing George Pickins could toss some dudes around on the outside oh yeah this could be a fun run yeah exactly it’s G to be a good time so we’re talking about you know in in terms of of the backs here Nai Harris Jaylen Warren you mentioned Jonathan Taylor’s offensive line then of course David Montgomery and jir Gibbs so we’re we’re keeping keep we’re staying excited for these guys yeah for sure 100% lines look good so we’re gonna be excited now let’s talk about some of your least favor who are some of the and now you could factor in all the offseason moves you know the draft all this stuff who are sitting at the bottom your eggs right now uh I’m terrified a little bit for New Orleans I don’t really know what’s going on um Trevor Penning you know I try not to criticize players too much but he’s not he he’s he sucks um he’s he’s bad he’s real bad is bad what can you say he’s real bad um it was bad enough last year they took Andrew Pete moved him from left guard to left tackle and he actually played pretty well um you know he had a background as tackle in college and then they let him walk in free agency um we don’t know what what Ryan Ram is going to be doing um he di it doesn’t sound like he’s gonna play it sounds like he that his injuries his knee is gonna cause him to at least Miss time if not retire um their guards aren’t good Cesar Ruiz right now it’s Ali Udo um maybe Trevor Penning moves inside they did do the right thing in the first round they brought in fuaga um tally fuaga but they’re moving him to left tackle it sounds like and that might be a stretch for me um okay I I I don’t know if he at least for what I saw like he’s the guy you put on the right side he just kicks your ass you know he did well at organ St right heuse right tackle but but there were times he looked kind of stiff um you know he kind of struggled with speed rush and he’s gonna get just a study diet of that on the left side so I just don’t know how that’s going to work um but it could I mean you know that’s the beauty of this you plug a guy in and all of you move pen the right tackle and he’s the best right tackle in the NFL like right you know so it’s possible um and I’m really really worried about Miami um they move on from Robert hunt who was injured last year but I think he’s in the conversation for top guards I mean he he was Stellar um Conor Williams they they let him walk to um now he tore his ACL late in the season but still they moved him over to Center and when they did all of us were like well what are they doing and then he’s arguably one of the best centers in the NFL teron Armstead does not have a a stellar injury history um you’re you’re just happy if you get 600 snaps out of him they did bring in Patrick Paul from Houston but he seemed like he was real Hit or Miss for me on film I wasn’t the biggest fan of his and then Tua so we talked about about um the impact of pressure on completion percentage last season tua’s completion percentage dropped 28.6% when he was pressured and his yards per attempt went down 2.8 so the worst thing for a quarterback is interior pressure it’s on you immediately it’s coming right up the middle and there’s nowhere you can go that’s part of the reason why Bryce young struggled so much last year some of it was him but a lot of it was they were on their sixth and seventh guard and he’s short and right off you snap the ball and there’s a guy taking the hand off from the other team like it was bad and so I’m not saying you know two is obviously a professional that offense is explosive you can’t just not draft them especially in best ball like you have to take that upside but I’m really worried about Tua because he has not been good against pressure and he might see more of it next year than he’s ever seen before that’s scary uh that oh that’s it’s a little scary that makes me a little nervous for my jayen Wright love but hopefully that that that scheme can get that Breakaway speed helping but anyway uh is there any players that you’re going to be more aggressive like we’ll frame it this way uh in terms of what the consensus out there has so are you aggressively targeting someone based on an offensive line that that that’s really really good well uh as I’m sure you are I am fully in the swing of best ball season um I’m on Underdog I’m living there um in the streets baby I got to make sure my wife doesn’t watch this because then she’ll start asking questions about where where some of the money’s going um in terms of just a general team I don’t think like the Green Bay Packers offense in general that’s a that’s a strong offensive line they are versatile they have guys who could play five different positions they’re talking about Zack Tom their right tackle last year moving to Center like because they can and because he can do it um but you have a good quarterback who’s reasonably priced all of the wide receivers are cheap because nobody knows what to do with them um you know I’m a Jaden Reed Luke Musgrave Davian Wicks like but even if you take Romeo dobs you’re like okay I’m just gonna take seven touchdowns and move on with my day um Nashi Harris I I I understand love that I love that baby talk to me dad I get um the love for jayen Warren I do it you know efficiency is fantastic but efficienc sees a data point and what really matters is what the coaches are saying and over the last three years Naji Harris is averaging 278 carries over the last three years he’s averaging over a thousand rushing yards and over the last three years he’s averaging 7.3 touchdowns and he’s getting 61 targets a year so I understand you know you could love Jaylen Warren I get it but I want the guy who’s going to get the ball behind one of the better offensive lines you know and even if you wanted to go with just simple coaching Arthur Smith last year what was our biggest frustration with bejan Robinson he wasn’t getting the ball in the inside the 10 he wasn’t getting the ball in the Red Zone Tyler alir was getting the carries in 2023 53% of the Red Zone carries Jaylen Warren isn’t goingon to get those Naj Harris is gonna be behind a good offensive line he’s gonna he I would not be shocked this isn’t the hot take I wouldn’t be shocked if he led the league in touchdowns just based on what Arthur Smith wants to so every time I’m in an underdog draft and I see Jaylen Warren go first and I know I’m close and nji Harris is just sitting there staring at me in the face I fist pump like it’s like okay I’m G I’m gonna get my guy like this is fantastic so and then he still get sniped you know or it’s not a snipe he still gets Tak to pick before you and it’s just like oh well you know at least I had joy in my life for a second isn’t it funny dad like when we we act like that guy is sitting right next to us and we’ll just be like I don’t know if you do this I’ll just be looking at my phone and I’ll I’ll you know do the count and I’ll be like okay I’m three picks up he’s six players down I should have a shot at this and then it’s like okay but be quiet be quiet be quiet you sit still like these guys are like like this actual table talk at dud they can sense it it’s sense exactly it’s like maybe if I don’t move they won’t see somehow from across the country or across the planet that I really they have na Harris they don’t know you know ignore the giant whiteboard behind me with his name you know Nai Harris no matter what on a post it note it doesn’t matter I don’t it’s not me I’ve been I I’m with you there on the Nai love and and Warren I like the waren play like I like having him on my team but to jump the shark and and make the switch saying he’s going to be better than Naji seems kind of nonsensical to me when Arthur Smith has been good as an offensive coordinator and make no mistake about it people need to get ready for this sentence and really listen to what I’m saying Arthur Smith was a damn good offensive coordinator at Tennessee 100% And and one last one I want to throw in there uh the David Montgomery hate has to stop we have to as a nation we have to be better um you know as people we have to grow I understand jir Gibbs is the explosive back um but David Montgomery I mean he’s he’s going off the board in the 70s I think it was 73 point8 last time I checked he’s the RB 18 last year he had 14.2 half PPR points a game he he had you know he’s up there 53 Red Zone touches he was on playerprofiler.com we’re looking at a guy who’s top 20 in juk rate top 20 in evaded tackles top 20 in best ball points added he is good and he is probably my most rostered rb2 like I take my my lead guy at the beginning I get into the 70s the wide receivers start to get a little bit ambiguous for me and then it’s like well I’m just going to push the button on David Montgomery every time because like last year 13 touchdowns like and in beste ball an underdog half PPR I want the guys who score and so I I I’ll I struggle um we’ll talk about this a little bit later I struggle with kind of like the rotational the little backs at the start I get the explosiveness so if you tell me I can get a David Montgomery and a nii Harris in those mid rounds I’m pushing the button every time and it’s going to either you know I’m G to have to take out a second mortgage or we’ll figure or I’ll win a lot of money and I’ll never have to worry about a mortgage again I love it I love it David Montgomery Naji Harris sounds more like if you could had to pick one from Green Bay it’s Jaden Reed uh but let me ask you that real quick before we move on to some of your Fades according offensive line are you in on Josh Jacobs it seems as if there’s a massive teetering whether you’re in or out of the jonath Josh Jacobs uh being great in 2024 I will take Josh Jacobs I think he kind of fits that if I go receiver receiver and he just profiles like he’s going to be a guy who gets the carries I I liked Marshon Lloyd I think Marshon Lloyd’s very good um I think that that backfield historically laflor likes to split it but I just think if you’re going to pay Josh Jacobs and and we always say the offseason the moves talk right you made a very clear point when you signed Josh Jacobs we were all working in our head how does Josh Jacobs impact Aaron Jones well he made him get a new job um you know Aaron Jones was letting immediately after that AJ Dylan is nothing um you know we know that now we’ve known it forever but now everyone knows it um and so I I like Josh Jacobs I just I see a path where he leads that back field I don’t know if it’s going to be a 7030 split uh it’s GNA be split somehow but I just think what’s in my head was him two years ago you know leading the league in rushing um and this offensive line is better than the one he had with the Raiders two years ago so if you’re telling me that teams are going to have to figure out how to stop that passing attack that means that Josh Jacobs should be feasting and so if he’s healthy yeah I think he’s a great pick there I I like Jacobs too I I I failed to want I failed to see why people would fade a guy when when you’re talking about the team speaking through their actions they brought in a guy that they can kind of marry the skill sets of an Aaron Jones and AJ Dylan they kind of it feels like they want to kind of dis disguise what they’re doing with their running back a little bit more by bringing in a Josh Jacobs because in the past you’d see AJ Dylan you kind of know what they’re doing you bring in AJ Jones Aaron Jones later in his career it’s like ah I kind of know what they’re doing Josh Jacobs kind of Blends the two together I feel like this year and then again why why is it that the the the long-term contract that’s really only a one-year deal is a bad thing if it’s only a one-year deal folks that means why wouldn’t they just give him the Rock and and you run run him to the ground is the only right yeah not they they’ve got four years of commitment to it they got a four-year deal on the table or a three-year deal on the table but only one matters so if if he’s healthy and he’s good then he’ll be there for two years if you know he gets injured if he’s washed then they can get out it’s you know the it’s an NFL thing for flexibility it’s not necessarily a signal a lot of times we read into those things as oh they don’t believe in him no it’s right it’s the smart way to do it like we’re willing to give you a Year’s worth of money with the option of continuing to pay you at this rate you just got to stay healthy and be good it just makes a lot that’s right all right Dan some of these Fades who who you know according to consensus is a is a is a Target and you’re fading that noise because their o line is just not good I struggle with Tua we already talked about that offensive line downgrades like and that’s again you have to take your shots on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Wadd and Devon aain and Raheem like you have to draft those players but I’m more likely to do it as a oneoff than I probably am to try and stack with Tua um even Miami we envisioned this whole explosive passing you know pass heavy but they were under pass rate they’re 09 under pass rate over expected in 2023 uh McDaniels wants to run the ball and he wants the use play action to set up everything and get those deep crossers so I you know Tua is g to give you boom weeks if he’s your quarterback too I understand it but more often than not I’m probably gonna kick that can down the road more um and you know just let someone else be you know it disappointed at the end of the year when they’re playing in C weather games all over the place and he can’t throw it um my my big one that I really don’t and I I’ve I’m if you find me on Twitter I’ve been whatever the opposite of singing the Praises of this player is that’s what I’ve been doing I am not a James Cook guy um okay I have never been a James Cook guy I I and he proved me wrong last year to a degree um you know he had over 1100 rushing yards number three or for in rushing but he’s still in fantasy that translated to being the rb1 19 in points per game because he doesn’t score he was you know 50% 55% snap share he wasn’t especially elusive he was number 49 in Juke crate he was he was shedding he was juking less tackles than David Montgomery who we all think of as a plotter so he’s not making people Miss if he gets the edge he could be gone but the minute that team gets inside the red zone or spefic specifically inside the 10 they’re looking at Josh Allen they’re looking at well this year it’ll be Ray Davis who I think and I think Ray Davis at this point is just based on what I watch he’s probably better than L Murray like so you’re gonna upgrade that rb2 that switch guy um they lost their Center they had to cut him Mitch Morris he left in free agency or during free agency because they couldn’t afford to pay everybody and he was probably you know a top two offensive lineman for them uh their swing guy they’re backup at every position Ryan Bates he’s with the Bears now so they had to make some tough choices and so you add competition you know you you have a guy who doesn’t really evade tackles he doesn’t really get the the high leverage touches so I’m not taking I I I think I have zero James Cook in all my drafts at this point I just it’s not a player that I’m in on given his you know his size he’s an undersized running back he he’s not all that elusive as you just mentioned in terms of evading tackles if his yards per contact or what is it yards you talked about earlier yards before contact is that the metric yeah yeah yards before contact if that if that comes down or is you know among some of the worst in League this could be really bad right for goly James Cook yeah or and it or just knowing you Buffalo they’ll just shift to Ray Davis more like they’ll they’ll go with the hammer and then you know James Cook becomes a pass catching back who doesn’t get any passes because Josh Allen could run further than he could throw horiz he runs more for more yards vertically than he does throwing sideways yeah for sure I I I wonder too and just in terms of the team they’ve now lost the boat race to the Chiefs we remember that epic back and forth a few years ago and then they’ve lost because the opposing team was able to slow the ball down uh and play a little bit of Defense so now I think that’s what they want late in the year they’re in Buffalo you know they’re not playing inside they’re not playing in Miami they’re playing in Buffalo and running the ball with James Cook 28 times because you’re trying to slow the clock is just not something that they can do but Ray Davis on the other hand Mr bowling ball 510 230 pounds Ray Davis that’s the type of guy that that could do that late in seon and we’ve seen AJ Dylan kind of do that in capacity in Green Bay so for all these Reasons I’m liking these James Cook Fades so no James Cook I’m gonna I’m gonna back off James Cook when redraft season comes I’m not gonna have a whole lot of James Cook now based on this any other Fades based on on poor offensive lines um I I would say I I’m kind of skeptical um I struggle with Jacksonville and I really kind of struggle most with like their deep passing um Trevor Lawrence was he’s another one last year who when you look at his ability to pass the ball Under Pressure um he dropped his completion percentage dropped 20.3% um when he was under pressure and I I think you kind of saw that manifest you know a lot of us were excited about Calvin Ridley going there he was going to add a element to that offense and he did he struggled with drops but also a lot of times the ball placement probably wasn’t the best Lawrence is a very good deep passer but you know when you’re getting sped up that means that guys like Christian Kirk and guys like Evan Ingram are going to just absolutely eat because the ball’s coming out quicker so I don’t have a lot of Brian Thomas Jr um because I think he’s going to be that vertical element this year I know they brought in Gabe Davis too I’ve never been a Gabe Davis guy um I think Gabe Davis though is interesting this year not to to kind of pivot off fade I think he can be interesting especially when um you know someone’s got a cal or kelvin Ridley LED that team by so much in terms of the Red Zone targets I think if Gabe Davis does that that’s what he’s good at you know yeah he can take the top off a defense and catch it less than half the time that’s a that’s a skill um but but he’s he’s at his most dangerous in the Red Zone where he could use that size so I think he kind of fills that void so for me it’s Brian Thomas Jr I think we could see him struggle year one because I I just that offensive line you know sheriff is really good um they added Mitch Morris which I really liked but I just don’t think that what they have is good and so when you’re still below average even after adding pieces it’s hard for me to really trust that in a really best ball format where I need you to go off every week Jacksonville you know I talked about a couple months ago but Jacksonville had about my they had the worst draft in my opinion because they just decided to fullon neglect offensive line when they had opportunities multiple times to bring in prospects even if they’re more of the project side you want that depth you want that you want to keep Trevor Lawrence upright and like you mentioned he is pretty good at the Deep ball we’ve seen him in top 12 in terms of deep ball completion percentage inside the top 10 for deep ball accuracy so if you’re going to dial up those deep balls to Thomas Jr who you use a first round pick on you want to make sure that Trevor Lawrence is upright they didn’t really do much in the draft to bring in any offens of line help so I’m kind of with you there on the fade so Tua Brian Thomas Jr and James Cook okay I like it some Fades here I would I mean if the Patriots were worth a half a [ __ ] i’ I’d be really excited for these fades in the AFC nor AFC East but what am I I’m not going to K myself I’m K myself it’ll be next year next year’s their year you know next year’s your year it’ll be okay yeah when yeah when they when they’re the worst team in the league and they Draft Kelvin banks at the top of the draft or or the kid from LSU at the top of the draft n baby yeah then we can talk we we we’ll put a pin in this for a year from now yeah we’ll let jacobe brassette and bayy zappy take all the wax in 24 to line up this this Ascension of Drake Bay I like this I like this conversation here Dan uh but we’re actually gonna take a quick break we’re going to go to commercial but when we get back it’s award season and we need to know what Dan forck 2024 awards are this early in the offseason it’s going to be a fun one so stick around for it this episode has made possible by Underdog fantasy and Underdog fantasy is the leader in beste ball when you go to join an underdog fantasy beste ball draft it fills very quickly especially now it’s best Ball Mania season baby best Ball Mania five I can’t believe they’re best Ball Mania five already $5 million in prizes they’re giving out 15 million with 1.5 million to First playing in beste ball leagues makes you better it helps train you on player value and strategy and Underdog offers a lot more than just beste ball contest they offer pick thems my new favorite the golf pick thems the NBA pick thems baseball pick thems going on throughout the off season hit the pick thems back to best ball hit the pick thems so use promo code underworld promo code underworld gets you a 50% deposit bonus up to $250 so they’ve increased the maximum deposit bonus it was 100 now it’s up to $125 5 when you get the underdog app use promo code underworld and go draft your ass off Underdog fantasy we are in those UD streets right now speaking of those underd draft Underdog draft streets what are some of your favorite adps that are happening right now uh Jared gof qb6 feels ridiculously low to me um we saw him you know he’s he’s top 12 level quarterback last year number two in the league in pass attempts they’re number 18 in Pace of play so that’s not great but they’re not at the bottom they’re not just trying to grind out the clock um 17.8 fantasy points per game last year he was number 10 in best ball points added 34 or 35.4 we know they want to we know they can pass the ball Jameson Williams could take a step they have two great receivers in the Porta who’s a tight end they have Aman Ross Brown we’re drafting of these pieces early in the draft but then nobody’s pushing the button on Golf and that that’s one of those that just doesn’t make sense to me um I love rb30 Trey Benson I I can’t not push the button on him we have a sipeed guy 6 foot 216 97th percentile 40 on player profiler at a 439 998th percentile speed score James Conor he’s really good at playing dinged up but he’s only played 13 games each of the last two seasons he’s going to be 31 he’s in the final year of his contract I think that Benson is one of those guys that picks up steam as the year goes on because he adds an explosive element to that offense and then at wide receiver I I find myself gravitating towards Romo dun quite a bit so we have a and it’s a very crowded passing attack we all know this yeah but what we don’t know and and this is kind of you know the Achilles heel for all of us in fantasy in fantasy you have to tell yourself a story right you have to be like well I’m working with here’s all the data points here’s the narrative I can tell and and so my question is this what if Romo dun is the number one receiver in Chicago he’s a top 10 Talent it’s an ambiguous passing attack Shane Waldren has the ability we saw it last year he had three wide receivers even you know for all the hate we give Jackson Smith and jiga he was still the first read on 19% of passing plays so Waldren is going to get the ball to his Playmakers what if romad dun who’s you know if you’re a reception perception guy he was the first I think college Prospect who was all green every single route every single company so what if he’s just the top 10 talent and he is the DK metf role what if they view DJ Moore as more of a field stretcher who can go across the middle and what if Keenan Allen is just a slot guy who you know occasionally gets hurt so at wide receiver 37 I I I understand you know we want to take Marvin Harrison Jr we want to take Malik neighbors but if you’re telling me I could get the third wide receiver in this class who is also a top 10 pick and a passing offense that were excited about three or four rounds later I’m GNA push that button every single time the crowdedness of the the passing attack in Chicago is a weird one because it it just kind of makes it so tough to be overconfident but I’ve kind of just been taking the that I’m just going to be very confident in in the one that you know one of these guys or two of these guys anyway because for DJ Moore sake let’s just say uh for let’s pick him for example this is the best quarterback he’s ever played with so I’m gonna I’m not a guy who’s coming off his best season yet a guy who’s been a prolific performer firstr draft pick all the stuff that you want in a pro in a player and now I’m going to fade him when he has his best quarterback no I’m not in the same logic I put for romad dun I love romad dun coming in and then he went to a good quarterback just so I’m going to be in on romad dunes a too and Keenan Allen I like Keenan Allen but I feel like Keenan Allen’s going to be more there for the safety blanket there for the development of of Williams I don’t know if he’s gonna have the fantasy production but I could be wrong but that’s just kind is we can’t fade these guys based on good things surrounding him because there might be too much of those good things right we don’t we don’t know who’s going to emerge we we have a feeling we could sit here and look at the past and sometimes the past informs the present and the future but at the end of the day we don’t know who’s going to lead the team in targets it it should be DJ Moore but what if it’s a Dun it could be Keenan Allen like we and so a lot of times I like to lean into the ambiguity because if I’m right then when it comes to those playoff weeks and when it comes to winning I if you’re right and you win then no one remembers the fact that it was a hot take it was just the right take it’s boom there it is um any more ADP favorites before we get into the awards my friend no uh no I mean I I like those I like Pat Fri Muth if I’m looking at a tight end he’s kind of like yeah hell yeah yeah he’s kind of that last bar for me um I know there’s not a lot of history of a Russ with tight ends but I don’t I don’t read too much into that like that team needs the targets are going to have to funnel somewhere and I think Fri MTH is just one of those tight ends who we’ve forgotten how good he is because Kenny picket was just so bad that we couldn’t remember how good he was uh so he’s kind of like that last line if I’m doing a two tight end build he he’s the guy I want is my tight end two if I’m doing a three tight end build that’s kind of where I’m going to start I’ll start with Fri Muth and pair him up with like a musk grave or a hunter Henry or you know wait and take a shot on galani Woods down at the end just because oh my man Jason loves that yeah six foot seven plays in The Red Zone every single time like it it doesn’t matter if you’re good if you’re six seven it we could throw it to you and hope that you go up and get it one hand grabs uh I think Pat farmw withth definitely has double digit T touchdown upside I I I really do especially we talked about their offensive line if they’re grinding teams out they’re going to have to stack the Box they going have to play the run when they’re on the seven when they’re on the eight and then that’s just gonna leave Pat fry move to sneak out and score those touchdowns that we love in fantasy right the wide open end zone to grab by the tight end Pat F I like that line it’s that’s a good uh line to draw in the sand in terms of your late round tight ends especially in the ud streets right now but anyway ladies and gentlemen want to give everyone a second first of all we all have to take a second and give congratulations my man Dan here for winning the 2023 award for the article of the year at player profiler as you dove into the offensive lines so big congrats to you Dan and we we don’t often get Award winners here in the game plan so it’s very exciting so I thought if we’re gonna have an award winner somebody who hoisted the gold well let’s go ahead and go into some of Dan foric 2024 early fantasy Awards what do you say I’m in I mean you know uh as a winner and I appreciate the recognition um as always uh it’s about it’s about the team it’s not about me you always got to you know give the award speech um Good Very cheing of you as a Patriots I’m very very excited to hear this but you know it’s a lot of times winners recognize winners so that we’re not going to look at these as sleepers these are going to be your league winners for uh 2024 let’s plant a flag let’s go okay so we have four Awards here um and the floor will be yours I don’t have these are not my Awards so I don’t have my own I’m going to let you talk you can take it to whichever way you want Mr Mr forck here so let’s start with the fun one well they’re all fun I would say they’re all pretty fun it’s your it’s your standard fun award so the 20124 sleeper of the year is Jan doson wide receiver 63 ADP 132 we’re is bromancing here I love these names man he’s so he’s scored 11 touchdowns in his career which we apparently don’t seem to care about um he’s got 10 plus yards per reception in his first two seasons he saw his route participation increase but the problem he had was he was tied to Sam H and Sam h’s not good um but if we look back to his rookie season we’re looking at a 13 and a half a DOT that fell massively in 2023 and part of the reason why you have to like Jan doson is when you add Jaden Daniels when everyone talks about Jaden Daniels we’re talking about rushing rushing rushing and yeah he’s Dynamic um he gets absolutely crushed it makes for good highlight films it’s at least a good blooper but he is one of the best deep ball passers we’ve seen come out of college I mean if you look a 99.2 I’ll say it again 99.2 PFF deep passing grade last year and we could sit here and say oh it’s Brian Thomas Jr oh it’s Malik neighbors it doesn’t matter like he can complete those we’ve already seen you know that there’s danger in Camp highlights but we’ve already seen him completing balls over the top two Dotson last year he had 13300 yards and 22 touchdowns with zero picks on deep passes 20 plus yards Jan doson I think has the ability to go nuclear next year because he’s going to be with a quarterback who can actually play to his strengths and he’s a former former first round pick he has that pedigree and we finally have somebody who can actually utilize him in this offense and I’m excited for that I’m looking at your the offensive line rankings right now at player profile go ahead and check those out you got Washington somewhere in the middle did they make enough improvements in the offseason to to help keep you know Daniels upright there there would they would be probably on the low end of the middle um they did make improvements they they brought in Alig grti um Sam cosm is one of the best left guards um in the NFL we just don’t really know his name because he’s in Washington um they bought botes in from Dallas um you know Andrew Wy last year at right tackle their left tackle is a little bit in flux but but I think with a quarterback like Jaden Daniels who is so mobile um if he a lot of times what ends up happening is quarterbacks are going to roll out right they’re gonna escape the pocket when they’re an athlete we see it all the time well when you roll out you’re cutting the field in half which means whatever The Wider why would the W or if the Jaden or I’m sorry if um Jan doson is on that side of the field we’re just G to cut it loose and we’re going to let him you know be dynamic so even getting flushed from the pocket if it’s not a great offensive line but your quarterback can move I’m still kind of okay with that especially when it comes to the downfield guy because then it’s just up to him to make a play right okay Yan do sleeper of the year I love it bust of the year in 2024 is I’m torn here um I struggle with and I can understand why he’s going where he is I’m talking about the rb7 devvon achain um I get it I get it I get it I have it I’m drafting him I you know you can’t not draft him he’s 50 points in a five foot eight body um but that offensive line the downgrades are so massive and he’s a limited snap snap jar guy They’re bringing back moster who they’re already talking up as he’s our number one lead back they draft Jaylen Wright so even if moart goes down I feel like Jaylen Wright probably is going to take on the moer role um so I want to say him I struggle with him but I really really really really I kind of here’s a false floor for you I don’t understand why Stefan Diggs is ADP 27.4 like I don’t understand why he’s the wide receiver 18 he’s being priced as the wide receiver 2 in Houston coming off the season we saw his ADOT fell to 10.3 his final six games he’s only drawing seven and a half targets five receptions he only had one game with with more than 60 yards were including the playoffs in this he turns 31 soon Nico Collins got paid tank Dell is a separation God like he is an outside receiver what if Stefan Diggs is just the wide receiver three in Houston I mean and we talk about signals all the time you know they trade for him and then they immediately reduce his contract to one year what if it’s just they don’t want to take the bet that he’s washed and so we’re going to give it one year and if it works fantastic but what if is just their slot receiver who comes in in 11 personnel and this is still a Collins and and tanked L team why am I paying you know early round three late round two draft capital for that and they again we’re trying to listen to what these teams are trying to say well they went ahead and extended Nico they’re telling us that Nico is the guy there and uh it’s tough to see and because the name has such cache already but ni last year looked like the Marvin Harrison Jr in that OSU offense for CJ stoud and the Texans really liked what they saw so they went ahead and extended him that we just sometimes have to listen but to back to achain real quick as bust of the year I’m with you I have to back you up there wholeheartedly I have been fading him all over the place sometimes we have to just accept things for what they are and when he came out he was labeled as a guy that probably won’t be able to stay healthy because of his size and then he goes ahead and gets hurt not once but twice and it’s like that just gets forgotten and I I’m not gonna forget that I I I think he has absolute M the makings of bus of the year because he’s gonna be someone’s running back one he’s gonna be someone’s Golden Boy that they had to take you know like as you said running back seven in the second round I think yeah well I I think for me if I’m going to draft him I what I gravitate towards is I’m hitting draft on two running backs quick so he’s my rb2 to bejan Robinson or Bree hall or you know one of those guys in the first round yeah and then I’m just done for you know 10 Rounds so I if I’m gonna capture that lightning in a bottle I don’t want to tie my entire team to it like oh I love that yeah I love that take I love that tip yeah so it I like pairing him up because last year he was one of my highest drafted players which was great for the five weeks he was on the field um less great for all the other ones yeah um but it was always as you know you’re running back two you’re running back three and so you’re it’s kind of like trying to take that same idea I want to pair him with someone I think is stable because if he’s stable too then I’m just the team’s gonna go nuclear right yeah but if I’m only gonna be able to bank on seven eight nine weeks okay at least I’m insured by having a legit rb1 and then I can mix and match my late round guys as we go oh I think Dan you just got me you just gave me a reason to to get some underd draft Underdog drafts done today so I can tether because that’s a kind of like that that’s kind of mitigating some of the running back Risk by getting yourself a core pillar and just tethering Devon H to that so that if he does get hurt early or does become the 2024 bust of the year like you say your team doesn’t necessarily have to crumble with the the the Bad season or the lack CL season that you your second rounder had I like that but uh we’re here with Dan forck The Dan forck 2024 fantasy Awards we move on the third award here of four the 2024 breakout of the year is kendre Miller of the New Orleans Saints um kendre so we have an injury Riddle 2024 I’ve already said I’m not a big fan of their offensive line but last year even their offensive line wasn’t good last year we still saw a good year from chimra um he’s starting to lose a step though so you have kendre Miller who is a day two pick 2023 7.3 yards per carry at TCU and we don’t have a big sample size he struggled with injuries he suffered a knee injury late in his his last season in college and it kind of impacted him throughout um you know he missed some camp but every time he was available or every time he practice we’re getting reports that oh this kendre Miller kid is really really good oh that he could make a push and you know injuries suck but it’s too early to say that his are sticky we did see him go 3.1 yards after contact limited sample size in 2023 2.21 yards per route run in 2023 which you know again we’re we’re extrapolating here a little bit which is a dangerous game but of his 51 touches 15 of them went for first downs so the team trusts him especially in those situations um I just think that he could very easily take this back field over this year I think that the team drafted him with that in mind um and you know even if they want to run the offense through CA they have to start putting him on a little bit of a pitch count he’s getting older and and so I just think kendre is gonna be the guy who you know he’s gonna be that late round running back that I’m gonna have like 50% of in best ball and I it’s gonna make or break me but if it makes me then you know like I said we don’t have to take a second mortgage which is always exciting I like m i mean Miller coming out of TCU he was so explosive he was so dirt nasty as a running back as a receiver out of the back field he really had the complete package he’s going to be healthy and like you said if they want to weather the the storm of Alvin chra he’s not going to run between the tackles when they’re in the fat part you know of of the field they’re going to wait until they’re kind of more in the Pay Dirt side the the Red Zone things like that kendri milillo explosive he breaks one he could break it from the 40 he could break it from the PO you know their own 38 so I I like that call the breakout and he has tremendous tremendous tremendous potential given what what is he coming off the board now wide like running back 37 is I think I the last time I saw it’s it’s down there I could it’s not good it’s low right now yeah he’s not it is this is great great radio right uh what I put you on the spot here rb45 ADP 42.6 kind oh yeah breakout of the Year we love it all right so this show I’m not gonna put pressure on you Dad but this show is produced some good bold takes our guy from rosterwatch Alex Dunlap his bold take last year on this very show was that Jaden Reed was going to outscore Jackson Smith in jiga in 2023 and that that came to be true so Dan here we are what is Dan forck bold take for 2024 oh Maddie I always come prepared I’m gonna we have three there’s going to be three boxes let’s play a game buddy um I have a quarterback bold take I have a running back bold take and I have a wide receiver bold take man I’m my kids have this problem too where you give them options they want them all Dan I kind of want them all is that okay can I get them all I want them all yeah you can um so for my quarterback this is let me this we got we gotta start this is Dan forck bold takes for 2024 because my man comes prepared I love it for my quarterback um this is a player I love I think this is a player we all love in fantasy he has a great offensive line um we sit here we like the weapons we like the situation around him but I I can’t get something out of my head it’s a player who struggled with injuries in college he had a massive injury in college required surgery stopped his development from getting on the field last year he only played two games um over 90% snapshare he got knocked out for the season with a shoulder injury pretty early I think Anthony Richardson finishes outside the top 10 at the quarterback position in 2024 I I don’t I the passing isn’t what you need he can get there on rushing but what if he just can’t stay healthy what if we’re looking at you know another version of RG3 who gets hit and he’s just knocked out with Ticky Tac injuries and can’t finish games so that’s my quarterback I don’t I I like it at running back this is a player we’ve talked about a lot um this is a team situation we’ve talked about a lot we love the offensive line they upgraded the quarterback position they got an offensive coordinator they got a guy who understands how to have a power back how to use a PowerBack niji Harris is gonna finish as a top 10 running back in 2024 and then my last one um I talked this guy up a little bit he’s a rookie wide receiver ambiguous passing tree we love the quarterback number one overall pick I think Roma dun not only finishes as the Bears wide receiver one in points per game but I also think that he’s going to be a top 20 wide receiver in 2024 oh baby that’s some heat there my friend that is absolute heat Richardson might be the strongest though I mean that guy’s already been annoyed as the next Cam Newton outside the top 10 I love it I love the B takes Dan thank you so much for joining the game plan today this was a blast dove into a bunch of different Secrets this hour basically flew by I’m just looking up at the timer cannot believe that we’ve already been doing this for an hour so make sure sure you’re out there like the video subscribe to the player profile YouTube channel drop some comments who are your bold what are some of your bold takes out there I want to hear some of those bold takes but Dan let the people know what you’re working on where they can find you uh you can find me player profiler I’ll have an article coming out ideally I think it’s next week um that’ll be the top 10 players at each offensive line position um so that’s your left tackles left guard Center Right Guard right tackle um I’ll have a top 10 overall at the end uh you could find me ftn fantasy right now it’s ranking season um so this past week I went through the top 32 linebacker groups I think on Deck will be secondary that’ll come out in a couple weeks and then you can always find me at Roto Baler that’s kind of the OG um I I pop in and out um but you know at the end of the day they they got a lot of good young talent and I don’t want to take up too much speed not that I’ve made it but you know when when I’m on a podcast with M keyw you’ve kind of made it so I have yeah I have to let I have to let the the Next Generation come up and get their Cuts you know you can’t take all the good work oh you’re that’s awesome dad and this was a great episode thank you so much we definitely have you back on at some point during the season we’ll talk that whatever uh uh breakout players will’ll check in on some of these words it’ll be it’ll be great so thank you so much again make sure you subscribe to the player profile YouTube Channel smash the like button leave a comment what are your bow takes for 2024 he’s Dan forck I’m MADD kium we will see you next time so make sure you are keep game planning my friends peace hey I want to thank you for being part of this broadcast if you have any thoughts on it leave a comment if you enjoyed it make sure you leave a like and if you want to see more shows on the player profiler Channel subscribe to it that’s how we know you want more [Music]
4 Comments
I cannot stop drafting Najee Harris!
Packers don’t have baktiari anymore
I think people keep forgetting how great: explosive and elusive Conner was last year. Benson should get some stats when Conner is out but man Conner was crazy good last year
Hot Take: Kyler finishes as a top 3 QB this season