Best bets for the Memorial Tournament | Going For The Green | Golf Channel

Brad Thomas and Denny Carter discuss the best bets for the upcoming Memorial Tournament, including Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa. #GolfChannel #PGATour
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Best bets for the Memorial Tournament | Going For The Green | Golf Channel
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welcome to going for the green and this week the PGA tour stops at Jack’s Place for the Memorial tournament Denny once again Scotty sheffler is the overwhelming favorite at plus 3 and 12,500 on DFS are you at all interested in Mr Scotty Sheffer at this Price look I I I ran the model 15 different ways Brad I was trying to find a a you know some sort of tin in the armor I couldn’t I couldn’t he’s just a machine all the time everywhere on the green around the green this is the thing I I mentioned this basically on every time we do this show he is so good around the greens that even if his long game is off even if his iron his approach game is off it doesn’t matter he he gets up and down so what I would say for DFS he’s going to be massively rostered you just have to come to grips with it and honestly it’s hard to imagine a winning tournament roster without Scotty sheffler this week yeah I agree actually took the Scotty sheffler bait um I took him in a parlay to win with the Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at plus 595 I also took him by himself at plus 360 I typically like to be around six to one to 8 to one in my odds in terms of overall betting card since Scotty sheffler was so low and his price was so low I was only able to bet on Scotty sheffler but we have to talk about Scotty sheffler uh with this holistic view of not just this year but how he’s been throughout his career or at least the last three years right Scotty Sheffer finished at this tournament third place two times and he was once uh once last year and two years before that and last year when I looked it up Denny I thought this was pretty remarkable Scotty Sheffer that was back when he couldn’t putt remember right Scotty sheffler finished third in this tournament while losing eight and a half Strokes on the putting green to put that in perspective the average tour pro would miss the cut if they lost eight Strokes on the putting surface Scotty still finished inside the top five and with the Boston Celtics they’re the best team in the NBA um what they’ve lost 20 games all season this is not a basketball podcast but I I I rate them very highly um whatever Advanced metric you want to look at they’re either number one or number two but the last thing on Scotty sheffler uh before I kind of close my point here is Scotty Sheffer has played two bad rounds in the past what six months number one was the second round of PGA Championship excuse me the third round of the PGA Championship when all of the the drama that happened the night before getting arrested kind of settled in and the second round was the round when the they’ve had the press conference about his charges getting dropped right the only times he’s played bad is when he’s had massive distractions in the media now that this is all kind of been put to bed I think Scotty sheffler can can Excel here mirfield is of course that’s that’s tough man it’s tough golfers win at tough golf courses but if you were to design a course for Scotty sheffler to win at it would be mirfield it would be Jack place like like if you it’s just the way it is that’s why I say you you kind of it’s kind of the the cost of doing business this week in DFS is just eating that chalk okay he’s gonna be S super chalky so it goes you know and and we’re hoping we’re hoping that Scotty shuffler is not arrested this week this is I think I think we can Bank on it but who knows we need Scotty to stay out of all legal trouble like don’t even smile at somebody incorrectly look forward and keep it pushing Denny you’re on a guy who I’m on but also I was shocked to see they’re not a 10K golfer colore cow sitting at 9800 what do you like about him yeah so K MOA is playing as good as anyone not named uh Scotty sheffler yes I’m looking for accurate drivers in this field you know guys who can put the ball on the short grass uh give themsel a chance to hit it close on these short greens and the penalty is is rather large for missing these greens as you know Brad so I think morawa more than anyone right now even more than Sheffer is putting himself in position to do that he’s the most accurate driver in this field and he’s gained Strokes around the Green in seven straight events so in the case that he’s not on with his iron play he can get up and down we know that he’s been good for the past two months around the green um he has finished in the top 10 in three of his past five events including the PGA Championship and the Charles Schwab challenge I think you know he might be a little bit highly Roost Ed but I’m okay with that this is a this is a small field you’re going to have to pick you know pick and choose who you fade I’m having a tough time fading colum Mora yeah I think the only way you could fade Colin Mora would just be how much he’s gonna be rostered and you don’t like how he played at the beginning of the year but since then that’s changed right four straight top five finishes in mass in in majors in uh Signature Events colore CWA I’m on him to finish top 10 but I also double dip and I don’t play this this Market often that’s first round leader I got him at 22 to1 if you want to go through the list of things that that you’re going to need here at Jack’s Place he’s either first or second in all of them first in driving accuracy first in Strokes gain around the green second and strokes gain T green behind Mr Scotty sheff who I already bet on first round leader is um a crap shoot at sometime at times right but when you think about course fits and you think about difficult courses I like playing first- round leaders at difficult course with a a horse for course why because you’re not going to see a bunch of guys going out there and just lighting it up with a bunch of birdies but morawa who was first round leader here in 2021 is third in the PGA and first round scoring average at 67.4 only behind Xander and Patrick Klay if Xander is first- round leader I will live with it but I think this sets up so well for colore CWA who’s already had multiple first round leaders this season my guy is not a long driver but he’ll put it you know in the Fairway and that’s what matters here yeah absolutely um tell me what you like about Mr Russell Henley yeah Henley uh he could be popular right now he’s not being projected to be super popular in DFS uh that could change in the next 24 hours as the uh tout industrial complex gets on Russell Henley uh sometimes that that does happen but very affordable 8100 price on DraftKings uh Henley has played really well since early April so this is not just a super recent form thing uh he’s gained Strokes on approach and around the Green in five straight events which I think is notable for how this course plays uh he’s a second most accurate driver in this field behind the aformentioned Kore cow I’m going Brad I’m all in on guys who will just get it in okay that this is this is what we’re going for this week and uh he’s sixth best in this field on approaches from the 175 to 2 200 range there going to be a lot of those in comparison to other PGA tourque courses and Henley has been really good especially like I said since early April for anyone out there who likes looking at models or like looking at The Strokes gain data there’s two metrics that you can find here where you either can bet a guy or fade a guy I like looking at driving accuracy and I look like looking at good drives good drives the difference between the two is how far away from the Fairway you are so if you’re only like a yard off the Fairway you’re not going to get as penalized negatively or poorly as someone who is five to 10 yards um and Russell Henley is in the green as would say in both of those a guy who um kind of was off my list but I think I’m going to go with massive Good Vibes here and that’s Justin Thomas top 20 um at minus 110 and why I say Good Vibes I’m going to Las Vegas this weekend Denny and I will be watching golf uh from the Caesars Palace Lounge the last time I was there I bet on Justin Thomas and he won the tournament it’s good vibes man but on top of the Good Vibes we have to talk about the good golf he playing T8 PGA t21 at Wells Fargo and T5 at RBC Heritage in all of those events he was striking the ball phenomenally we talked about a metric that’s really important at this course and that’s T to Green he’s fifth in Strokes gain T to green and much like Colin morawa he was he is phenomenal phenomenal phenomenal around the greens I don’t need him to win I just need him to beat out 51 other golfers Thomas and his buddy Jordan Speed are sneaky DFS play this week spe obviously a little sneakier than Thomas You’re Gonna you’re going to have to hold your nose for spe but I don’t I don’t I actually don’t hate spe because he’s been driving the ball well he’s been good around the greens if he could just hit one iron shot near the pin that would be awesome so just consider that uh Denny there’s a song I really like it’s uh hey hey wait a minute Mr Postman every time I see JT poston’s name I want to sing the song I don’t know if I have the guts to bet him as frequently as I should he did catch a first- round leader not too long ago what are your expectations of Mr Postman JT Poston in this tournament you’ll have to excuse my dog he gets excited over uh JT Poston uh but JT Poston 7100 on DraftKings 81% accuracy off the te this season that’s third best among players in this field uh top 12 finishes in two of his past four events he missed the cut at the PGA Championship which obviously hurts but that was a disastrous putting week for him that’s very very abnormal he’s really around the greens so I think his his game actually fits this course better than most would think and I don’t expect him to be super highly rostered with JT Poston he has the ability to do something that a lot of golfers can’t and that’s just hit the greens and make putts make two putts there’s going to be a lot of holes here that are going to be playing overpar and JT poston’s putting ability will help him eliminate a lot of those bad scores absolutely and and again that PGA Championship very fluky he’s been good on the greens this season yes yes uh every bad putter has one or two bad putting tournaments a year it just happens that’s golf but Denny I want to say before we go Alex norin I’m fading him this week he made me so mad I just had to get this out there this is no longer an Alex norin show who no longer I’m done with him uh but I’m gonna let everyone go here thank you uh for tuning in make sure you check out nbcsports.com for more help with your Wagers for jny Carter I’m Brad Thomas thanks for tuning in to going for the green