Paul Shaughnessy and Fight Network’s Cody Saftic make their UFC Vegas 92 Picks. The card goes down Saturday May 18th at the UFC Apex. The guys make their UFC picks, give their favorite bets and props for each fight.
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
8:06 Lerone Murphy vs Edson Barboza
15:07 Khaos Williams vs Carlston Harris
22:29 Themba Gorimbo vs Ramiz Brahimaj
31:42 Adrian Yanez vs Vincius Salvador
39:16 Angela Hill vs Luana Pinheiro
45:25 Tom Nolan vs Victor Martinez
52:59 Oumar Sy vs Tuco Tokkos
1:03:36 Melissa Gatto vs Tamires Vidal
1:10:28 Abus Magomedov vs Warlley Alves
1:19:35 Piera Rodriguez vs Ariane Carnelossi
1:27:38 Kleydson Rodrigues vs Alatengheili
1:35:49 Emily Ducote vs Vanessa Demopoulos
1:43:48 PRP
Paul Shaughnessy Twitter: https://twitter.com/PaulShag
Cody Saftic Twitter: https://twitter.com/CjSaftic
[Music] [Applause] [Music] welcome to another edition of the doger pass podcast this for UFC Vegas 92 Paul sha isy here producer Megan is on the sticks Cody saftic is on the line Cody I know I know rebecky is dead to you there some other like you know favorable decisions along the way but to hit a PRP you’re going to need some lucky some bounces along the way like there’s a reason nobody really hits 13 leg parlays 12 leg parlays um you need things to break right and everything was breaking right except for rebecky as soon as that fight started I was just like you know this could be actually a kind of a tricky matchup for rebecky like immed like before they even like engaged I’m like cuz he likes to go to the wrestling when things are getting a little squirly and I don’t know if he’s going to want to do that but it’s like I wish I had those thoughts many days in advance long story short the good news Cody the good news is I believe the last time you hit a PRP it was an event at the Apex that was uh headlined by Edson Barbosa which is what we have going on this week yeah yeah it would have been nice if I could have hit a PRP going into Barosa who was the last guy to hit me a PRP would have been great times yeah I have those same feelings when the start of the fight happens but I get those same feelings anytime I’m like the bet is dwindling down it’s dwindling down like who’s going to screw it up now that you start to get those pre-fight vibes and then the first round I didn’t like how he was going you said that you thought that it when he got in trouble he got to the wrestling I was hoping he’d get to the wrestling while he was fresh instead he just marched him forward like an idiot like he exhausted himself in that first round fighting an unsustainable Pace he did win the first round landed some big shots and dropped Ferrera but you knew right that he just wasn’t going to be able to keep it going frera has awesome hands and pretty solid cardio so when he didn’t implement the wrestling game early he waited till he was gassed then he tried shooting then he tried to wrestle and he got the takedowns Paul exhausted dead on his feet still got takedowns but he was just too tired to do anything with them I wish he would have wrestled earlier but listen I can’t get in there and do the damn thing the main thing is is that we break down every single fight so we give reads on every single fight and I’d like for you to tell me which decisions thought were so questionable because there were some tight decisions but I didn’t think we robbed anything I think everything went the way it was supposed to go uh guys like Chase Hooper went well above and beyond but the reads were there unfortunately one of them wasn’t look good in the first round if you got the first round knockout we’re laughing if he doesn’t fight like an idiot and sustains a pace for two rounds and survives that third we’re laughing if he gets mauled in the third but it’s a 108 round but he had still won those first two take a draw great would have been great but no no no so unfortunately Dems to bounces all we can try to do is this is a greasy ass card but I last week was a greasy ass card too so one of them will go eventually to answer your question uh Trey Waters I mean I that was my biggest winner of the night but we were fortunate to get the decision and the 30 27s were were Prett two 30 27s yeah I had him by decision plus 475 and then like right before the fight kicked off um cuz I had mentioned on the show that I’m like everyone thought the quintland fight was going to decision I think Waters is going to win a a decision in this fight and then so I saw it was 500 so I doubled down ended up being I mean the only reason I profited on the card because a lot of my other reads weren’t all that great or just didn’t come through um but yeah I mean that one particularly the 30 27s were like okay I can’t really complain about any decisions for the rest of this card um I thought Tia Torres won as well but like that one I mean it was so close I I I’m not going to complain whatsoever about that that’s just that’s just how MMA gambling goes particularly when I’ll tell you I’ll tell you one thing about that spot there that spot there on the show I took Tisha Torres and then on the play that I played out on Saturday I switched it but I’ll be straight up with you I didn’t play play other side I took the over two and a half because my book doesn’t let me parlay the decision props only the two and a half took the over two and a half at minus 400 and that’s the greatest play in the world really but in terms of the fight it’s self okay I did actually score foreg Tores the TR Waters fight’s different Man Billy G’s an idiot moving forward swanging bombs tons of bombs and eating tons of bombs and if you listen to that that fight with the broadcast on they’re just sucking it up they’re like oh Billy’s Chin’s so good Billy’s putting his chin on display right now that’s a bad thing Billy’s getting cracked so you’re not their cage side as the judge and I will say that you see this all the time in boxing it’s like man the Argentinian guys moving forward swinging the other guy backing up it’s like the other guy’s boxing like he’s actually Landing clean shots the other guy a lot of this stuff’s Landing off the guard a lot of the stuff’s missing a lot of the stuff is Ricardo Mayorga you know chopping shots off the elbow off the shoulder whatever you can get so it was a super close fight and by no means that I think two guys would have a 3027 for Trey Waters but he land like Billy should have went to sleep Waters landed the shots and in the first round close edged Waters the second round super close Waters is losing then there’s like a minute left and he hits like some type of second wind and rocks the [ __ ] out of Billy again and then the third round’s super close but they’re both Landing so you’re not the first person that told me like I got lucky on that one but it’s like what robbery what robbery occurred the 23 27s are questionable but I can’t say that the that the right man didn’t win still um yeah I mean I IIT I profited from it as well but like that’s one of the things when everyone this is really the point the only point I want to make is that like people love screaming robbery sometimes fights are just close right and over time in this sport betting on this sport you’re going to end up on the on the right and wrong side of a lot of these closer decisions like not everything is Diego Sanchez 3027 against Ross Pearson like that was obviously the biggest robbery maybe of all robberies um it’s not always you know you know it’s not so cut and dry a lot of times fights are very close and there’s a thin margin between them that’s but people also love that just you’re coming forward all the time type mentality so let’s say Shao Chris matinho okay and this was not a shaal Chris moutinho situation the thing is is that people would tell you especially when the fight was happening and the weeks afterwards they were like moutinho gave him a hell of a fight it’s like no no he did not give sha Ali a hell of a fight he came forward and he got punched in the face a lot at no point was he winning at no point did was he almost going to win but it’s like it’s admirable that this guy took that many shots that he never quit that he was still swinging that kept it close wasn’t close wasn’t close at all some of those rounds could be argu 108 um but because he coming forward I mean there’s there’s there’s a love for that so Billy goff’s got that it factor in that he’ll fight 10 times in the UFC go three and seven and win two or three fight of the night so they’re going to keep him around because he’s an all- action guy but like he just took so much damage and and uh Trey doesn’t have like a super high ceiling but robbery I was okay with that one I was okay with pretty much all of them the t-sh one I was fine with because I was more invested in the over two and a half it’s just when it came down to rebecky it was like this one guy could screw up not even just that entire card but like I had plays from Battlefield or not Battlefield Fight League yeah Battlefield Fight League on the Thursday night and then the pfl on the Friday night and it was culminating with the UFC on The Saturdays like he didn’t just blow like a 12 fight ticket he he blew a 23 fight ticket and a 20 one fight tick I don’t want to talk about it let’s talk about these fights and get back going yeah in terms of yeah apple pie [ __ ] that’s dud he’s dead to me he’s absolutely dead to he’s up there all time all time pie [ __ ] all right let’s head a PRP this week we got lone Murphy taking on Edson Jor Barbosa minus 140 for Murphy plus 120 for Barbosa the way I think about this matchup Cody and maybe it’s like recency bias and we were both on Barbosa last time out against sadique Yousef a guy who’s primarily a striker maybe a little bit of wrestling I I see this matchup kind of the same I I feel maybe Lon Murphy has slightly better wrestling he was able to get three takedowns against kabau last time out there but he hasn’t historically been a big- time wrestler we all know with edsen Barbo so like that’s how you get him out of there Murphy hasn’t really been tested in five rounds at least at the UFC SE level that I um as of this point so we don’t know and the volume In fairness to like sadik sadik has better volume than what we’ve seen from Lon is lon able to fight the fight that sadik did against Edson Barbosa I don’t know man um Edson Barbosa put up you know well over 150 significant strikes there sadik actually out significant strike struck him there but like there were knockdowns and some of the more damaging shots particularly late in that fight for Ed Barbosa was what secured the fight for him um I think it’s pretty clear Dogg or pass here Edson Barbosa again just just he’s becoming that guy just like killing prospects as they try to rise up the ranks I don’t think he’ll ever be Champion he’s obviously never going to be like top five but he’s a tough out particular if you don’t have a stout wrestling game so it’s Barbosa for me what about you yeah I got conflicted feelings about this one so we went with them the last time over sodi USF and I’m going to agree with you the breakdown would be very much similar but to me the key factor in that one is that sodf is known to gas out like he just doesn’t have very good cardio so if you look at sodf in three round fights but the third round is always his worst round the game plan there was that Edson Barbosa a Savvy veteran who’s fought all the best guys who generally can make it into those later rounds who can thrive in those later rounds because he’s got good cardio and and has been five rounds before that he could take sodi huse after those later rounds and win and then that’s what happened he took a hell of a beating in the first the second was a lot closer and then three four five baby Barbosa so we needed soque to gas and he did with lone Murphy he does not throw he doesn’t overexert himself everything’s kind of cool common collected he’s not throwing a ton of volume but he’s not needed to throw a ton of volume in none of his fights has he been outworked he’s always Landing more significant strikes in his opponents and a lot of those times he’s actually giving up takedowns as well he’s only rocking like a 46 takedown um takedown defense percent in the UFC gave up five takedowns to you know a couple of these guys Santos takes him down he’s been taken down by mamir con said he’s got a good get up game athletic guy moves well and uh kind of like a point type fighter no huge power but he conserves himself well so I’m not as worried about Lon Murphy gassing out in those later rounds if you look at him versus Gabriel Santos he uh wins a split decision but he landed 93 significant strikes over the course of three rounds right and he had been given up five takedowns in that fight got up every time still lands 93 in three rounds look at the breakdown of that fight and the third round is his best he lands 35 significant strikes in the third round alone his fight with Josh kulaba another fight that it’s not super high volume I didn’t think he looked overly good the third round is his best round he lands 20 first round 18 second round he lands 12 the third round he lands 29 a 49 significant strikes attempted so he’s building and that’s the thing about him he’s got a lazy man game to him where he’s just like a slow starter he’s we’ll talk about Adrian Yan as a little bit later they’re slow starters because they know they’re skilled they know they’re Technical and as a result these guys that just get the bite on on them get the jump on them get that quick start and just come slinging bombs those guys can win that first round they can win that second round the longer it goes is when they start to find their comfort level their Rhythm their their their range their timing and that’s when they start to put things together we banked on Sodus of gassing up the later the fight went we can’t Bank on that this time around and then with Edson Barbosa it’s like he’s the he’s the gift that keeps on giving and that he’s been not only this he’s lost fights in the UFC he’s been [ __ ] kicked in fights in the UFC for many years and most guys brains and bodies and their desire it just like it doesn’t come back and his always hacks like he’s lost some really bad fights and the next fight it’s like he’s career back he’s reinvented but even sodf who’s not really that high of a power puncher not really that big of a puncher let’s say um even he’s got Barbosa just absolutely dead to rights early before he gasses if Murphy hurts him early we can’t rely on him gassing late if he doesn’t gas early it’s going to be a close competitive both guys are going to land over 100ic strikes I don’t see either guy gassing overly super tight super competitive I’d like to tell you just take the over three and a half but it’s minus 150 and they’re going to be banging it out on the feet that entire time so I can’t actually recommend that either uh smart guy would probably just hit a pass smart guy Hedges out at the end of the night if you still got this thing riding on your ticket but because I got to make a pick on a on a show Karma’s probably gonna bite me in the ass cuz Barbosa got my PRP last time but I think I’m going to go Murphy man should we should we sh we about this one or what I’ll take a shoy bet on this one all right love it love it and I mean the only thing the only thing I’ll just cast on a shadow on Murphy is that that uh that decision that he got against Gabriel Santos where he was taken down a whole bunch controlled a whole bunch it it was close it was a split decision but it did not hurt that they were in England for that decision as well a lot of people scored it for Gabriel Santos and then Santos goes out the next time out gets absolutely murdered by David onama not that there’s any shame in that David onama is super super talented I’m just saying just all the same yeah not I mean Ed Barbosa is 38 years old this could be the you know the end of the line that’s that’s part of my narrative here is that when you look at the when you look at the stat yeah but when you look at the stats it’s the real stat is that nobody below 155 has ever defended the title after the age of 35 so those lighter weight classes it’s dominated by speed and speed is the first thing to go as you get older so Barbosa has made a career of being fast being agile being rugged being tough It’s just he’s he’s hitable at this point he’s taking a ton of damage he’s 38 years old Murphy’s not Young by no stretch himself and this is really is for step up like he’s not fought anybody good and he’s been with the UFC for five years so he’s not the end all Beall just I’m kind of I’m kind of thinking that it’s a two-on-one him and Father Time versus Barbosa so I’m going to take Lon Murphy and his tag team partner there aren’t many people on Earth that at 38 years old look as good as Edson Barbosa though his abs have abs that’s fair guy’s jacked all right let’s move on to the co-main event we’ve got chaos Williams taking on Carlon Harris chaos Williams minus 120 favorite car carlston Harris can be had for plus 100 pretty much a straight pick him Cody and I don’t think it’s like you know it’s not not some sort of crazy matchup where you’re wondering what each guy is going to do chaos Williams is going to try to St keep this on the feet and uh and throw hammers land big bombs that’s what he does his best Carlson Harris if he’s able to get this fight to the mat should have a have a significant grappling Advantage small cage should be an absolute Banger should be a fun fight I’ll lean on the grappling here because I don’t know if chaos Williams has really been tested against somebody with this pedigree of jiujitsu so that’s my take what about you yeah yeah I mean this is another one that’s yeah it’s a tricky fight it’s closely lined closely contested you can see either guy win and it just depends on like who gets that game plan going and it’s very much Striker versus Grappler when I look like chaos Williams when he first came to the UFC he was like this guy’s got power for days he’s going to be a murderous power puncher but we thought that about abdulah Rak alhasan we thought about that that about other guys in the past and they kind of fanned out Michelle Pereira for a long time right he’s getting back to it a little bit now but he had just smoked guys and then he goes on a run of like five six decisions it doesn’t mean he can’t crack no more it just means he’s learned how to like kind of like reel back on that power not have to overexert it not have to rely on it too much and just set it up a little bit it doesn’t always lead to The Knockout but it does lead to victories chaos Williams case again when he starts off knocks out Alex morono knocks out alhassan goes to decision with Pereira in a fight that he outstruck Michelle Pereira 55 to 44 gave up two takedowns got right back up outwork go check out MMA decisions go check out the interwebs a lot of people scored that fight for chaos Williams which would have been a career defining Victory I think for him bounces back by being Matthew sburg a guy that he probably could have knocked out but he’s fighting a little bit smarter 91 significant strikes landed in that one Miguel basa outw Works him knocks him out in the third round shows that he can use that work rate he uses a lot of inside kicks sets up the big right inside kicks sets up the big right he’s got that heavy power and just quick little touch touch go leg kick and then hit you with something so a guy like B that’s a little bit chinny and a little bit hitable you know but but again cardio power Pace take down defenses an 80% only guy that’s ever taken him down was Michelle Pereira twice has not been taken down by anybody since uh that Rolando bedya guy did it work him there’s the argument that bedya won that fight but again he stuffed both of bedoya’s takedown attempts he landed the bigger heavier strikes and he landed 130 yeah the other guy landed 149 but again this is a work rate fight this is a fight where they’re scrapping it in and they’re both putting up numbers Carlson Harris is is not going to do that his striking is you know he’ll he’ll seize the moment he’ll try to capitalize with like a big overhand right or something like that but for the most part he’s looking to clinch Up drag this fight to the ground he’s physically strong but I can’t say that he’s all that much stronger than chaos Williams if he doesn’t peel him to the ground he’s either going to get cold coocked by something or just simply outworked um I like the guy I like his Regional show career I like what he’s done in the UFC the win over impai aged incredibly well the loster shaft Caught rachmanov no one’s going to hold that against him the fight with Jared and again he relies heavily on the takedowns once he seizes those takedowns not a whole lot of ground and pound few submission attempts here and there but there’s not a whole lot of working if if he took down Gooden that’s fine if he takes down chaos Williams fine if he doesn’t he’s gonna get beat up on the feet and then the next fight with Jeremiah Wells was in Nashville we’re watching it live he loses the first two rounds he’s down two rounds and in the third round like not even he’s losing but it’s close he’s most definitely losing this fight in the third round he snatches up that anaconda choke so got a nasty BJJ Blanc belt nasty submission game to him evolucio tag guy I like him but is there enough substance on the in between I don’t know he had landed five significant strikes till that point against Jeremiah Wells offensively as a Grappler Dynamite defensively of as a Grappler he just got neutralized the whole time cardio didn’t look great although he did get a third round submission so it wasn’t bad it’s it’s there’s not enough substance on the in between so if he gets the taked down and he can rack up a submission great if not I think Williams just at works on for two of the three rounds keeps it fighting keeps it standing for the most part and just uh touch and go touch and go touch and go if he can plan his feet Land one big right hand land that one big damaging shot that eye-catching shot that’s good for the judge is great if not just stick to the fundamentals and those should grind through so I’ll take that slight Edge on chaos Williams yeah I mean a lot of oh sorry sorry last thing I want to throw in there is like Williams trains with Charles Johnson he trains with Jamal Hill he trains with Yokem Buckley like this Michigan Camp is like a really good Michigan camp so he’s in like really good hands and I think he’ll have a good game plan yeah I mean a lot of questions about this fight get answered probably in the first like grappling exchange between the two of them if Harris is able to get to the ground it could be a long night for Williams but like yeah it’s not like Harris’s wrestling is some like Elite by any stretch of the imagination um yeah like obviously able to take down jar Gooden five times but still went to unanimous decisions so I I understand where you’re coming from on that on that front for sure chaos Williams should be prepared for this type of matchup um let’s move on to the next one we got thema gimbo taking on RAM brahimi minus 130 for gimbo plus 110 for brahami so trappy so trappy Paul well here’s the thing is that like this line opened up super super wide and everyone like you know everyone in the know knows that like gimbo is the guy that like The Rock Dwayne Johnson has like helped out with you know providing him with different resources so that he could house it’s a pretty good resource that’s a pretty good res providing him with some help so that he could pursue MMA fulltime um he’s obviously long uh he’s got the heart and the will and and is definitely working and putting in the time to be the his best self but like we saw flaws with him coming into it and one of those flaw I feel like is it’s a big question mark still but like how is he going to do if you know if somebody has a grappling Edge over him this was like minus 260 plus 220 or something when it opened and it got smashed it got smashed down to a pick them I can’t disagree with it I think that early money with like the question marks that we still have about gimbo bra Ma’s not exactly you know a world beater by any stretch of the imagination but if he does get it to the mat he should have some advantages here I don’t know um I’ll wait to hear your takes on it before because I’m like really torn at a price of a pick them I can see this one going both ways so I don’t have an official pick yet I’m going to probably tail you or maybe maybe disagree we’ll see it’s all it’s all narrative all narrative it just depends on like what side because R’s bromage on tape seems like he would be the better guy on paper seems like he’d be the better guy but the narrative is just throwing B’s way all day not only is it like oh the Rocks behind him and bought him a house and Dana likes the guy and threw a couple extra bucks his way and HBY Covington says he’s a great training partner and you know helped them in the early going like he’s a really likable guy but he’s a super hard worker thing is is that everything he’s done prior to Landing in the United States of America throw it out the window like where was he training who was he training with what was he doing so when you watch tape on him back in the day it’s [ __ ] Paul it does not look good it did not look good but he has a will and a desire to be a fighter he’s definitely a fighter racks up a bunch of Victories eventually shows up in the US shows up at MMA Masters South Florida great location to pick great Camp to select shows up there and he fights AJ Fletcher and he’s a he’s a certified bum but he just gets there similar to Arian lipsky got to American top team and her first fight was uh your girl catch a beating right it was a bad fight but stays and staying is the main thing cuz you’re going to get better so in the Fletcher fight Fletcher is no longer with the organization physically strong guy like athletic for football player but never really clicked in term of putting an all-around game together and you see when he takes themba grimbo down themba’s lost down and then was took him down yeah okay loses a scramble and then you see how easily that he’s able just to like pass guard on him how easily he’s just like able to improve his position on themba it’s like defensively he’s not a very good Grappler thema eventually gives up the submission gets caught in a guillotine choke the one thing I will say like the only thing you can take away from this Raw onest that wasn’t overly great let’s not uh let’s let’s cut it real here the one thing is that Fletcher an athlete a guy that’s going Balls to the walls here he’s gassing out if he doesn’t get that gutin choke he’s in a world of [ __ ] themo GMO meanwhile is fresh he’s like fresh as a daisy he just makes a stupid mistake goes back to the gym and works hard works hard works hard now at this point he starts to get some resources he starts to get some sponsors he starts to get people getting behind him publicly and then you see the tekashi SAT fight well the Sato fight Sato can’t defensively grapple either but he just ragged Al them for 15 minutes no problem and didn’t break a sweat this guy’s got cardio for days he is 33 years old he’s had a lot of fights but he’s fresh in terms of he hasn’t had those like long in the tooth miles he hasn’t had those training room miles and clearly the guy’s got a work ethic and a personality that can’t be matched there’s a reason why somebody would say I want to help you to that tune because they meet you and they see this guy wants it bad and this guy’s willing to do everything he’s just never had those resources provided so that Sato fight is such a a jump up now the Pete Rodriguez fight people will say well we didn’t learn anything from it that’s fair but you also are seeing he’s got some raw power too man Pete Rodriguez lasted three minutes versus Jack Dela madalena themo just folds him up in like 31 seconds so you have again one of these very explosive athletic um just raw athletes okay he’s got natural power he’s got infinite gas tank he’s got a desire to learn and work ethic that can’t be matched and only now is even though he’s older only now is that really being provided to him and he’s starting to click things together so if you’re of that narrative then you think he calls out he wants a title fight after his last fight like that’s a joke okay that’s a joke and the UFC realizes hey this guy’s calling out for a title fight or says he wants to take a top five guy on let’s give him rise brahimaj like like they’re trying their damnest to give him a winnable fight and this is the winnable fight so again people will say well I watched a fight from AFC Africa and it’s like it’s not the same guy it’s not the same guy now you cannot watch EFC Africa watch the AJ fletchery fight it’s not that long ago he not that good on his back and that’s going to be a problem here but if you’re of The Narrative of this guy’s a hardworking guy and people are finally behind him and and he’s getting better then yeah he wins this fight at this line this is a great line right what it opened at that’s a match the line maker sees what’s going on and sets it like that it’s people don’t like him and people want to fade him and people want to bet against him fair but Theo’s biggest weapon would be his cardio I feel now Ram brahimaj is’s like the polar opposite the guy is a ibjjf I want to say he’s a world champion at blue belt not a black belt world champion but he did win the World Championship in G Jiu-Jitsu guy has good Jiu-Jitsu the guy has good wrestling better on paper wrestling than Rin brahimaj Wrestled a little bit back in the day uh has translated over it well in MMA and then when you look at all of his wins quite literally all of them debut against Richard Bailey first round re naked choke David Lopez 22nd Kamura how do you even set up a kamur in 20 seconds but the guy’s got great grappling right Andrew Sosa re naked choke 55 seconds Josh Sturgill Guillotine choke 24 seconds Ben Simmons Guillotine choke 36 seconds blal Williams re naked choke 410 first loss Evan Cut’s decision of course because when he doesn’t get that first round submission he’s got terrible cards and so Cuts beats him by decision Fair uh back on his run again submits William marcario second round Guillotine choke I beat this Carlos Martinez again it’s the same thing first round 55 second arm triangle choke lost to Justin Patterson by decision let’s just go to his UFC run though against Max Griffin he can’t take Max Griffin down he gases out almost instantly he gets absolutely boxed off boxed up to the tune that his ear falls off half falls off it’s dangling and it’s disgusting and similar to Josh Tom or John uh James Thompson versus Kimbo Slice they just wave this thing off they’re like no m d you can’t keep going on so he’s super hitable his striking is not all that good his takedowns that’s what he he relies on because the jits is the bread and butter needs to be able to take down his opponent needs to be able to sink some hooks in needs to be able to slow down that pace if he can’t he’s got a history of gassing in that’s why he lost to Court McGee Court McGee has never been submitted in his entire career one time on The Ultimate Fighter was an exhibition fight against Chris McCrae I think but outside of that like his his submission defense is one of his best weapons so so it’s the same [ __ ] he tries to take him down he can’t he gasses out once he gets gassed out he can’t rely on a plan B of like let’s kickbox a little bit he’s got no Pace he’s got no no real sustainability there he’s just like a one-trick oneand done type Pony submits Michael gellmore come on and then a twoyear long layoff so again if you’re the UFC and you’re like man themba’s got a great story and there’s a lot of people that want to get behind him and there’s a lot of marketability dare I say that we could do with him he needs these winnable fights similar to me with Latana chutti I’m not running to throw him back in there for the simple fact I’m not trying to Bank in no money off him the simple fact is if he was going to fight somebody it’s got to be the right opponents and in their case this is the UFC how many right opponents are there but rise seems to be that guy because Rin needs the first round submission if he doesn’t themba’s going to take over all day meanwhile themba’s been active recently he’s on a little run he’s doing good if he actually wants to fight the bigger and better guys he’s got to prove to you that he can stuff Tak ends and he’s got to prove to you that he can get out of submission attempts and R brahan is not Elite as a wrestler and he is certainly not Elite he’s not even good as a wrestler or good as a Grappler he’s okay he’s okay if you can’t hang with that guy then there’s no there’s no long-term run for themba so there’s start starting him off as soft as they can the guy’s got known cardio issues throughout his career he’s been on a two-year long layoff he’s two and two in the UFC both of those losses not against you know the most riveting of of competition this is a very winnable fight for thumba gimbo but again he looks so bad against AJ Fletcher off his back that if he looks like that again here he’s in trouble but if he’s marginally better than that and it’s enough it’s enough to just get out of the first round you’re going to see him take over big time so I’m gonna take themba and I’m also going to take that live betting Market that if themba can if he loses the first round oh well you you missed it right if he loses the first round but survives you can get a better number on him it’s an all day situation if this thing makes it the third round themba’s going to curl this guy over so we just need to get it there to summarize um max Griffin against ra ra Ram brii brii shot zero takedowns in that fight maybe he just was like I can’t take this guy down then his damn ear explodes everyone remembers that one um they stopped the fight Court McGee I mean the guy’s a brick wall Sasha platov I mean first round rear naked choke but like I mean Sasha palatnikov was one of the worst fighters in the welterweight division maybe like he’s on that that Mount Rushmore after he left the UFC he goes out to the region of scene gets a couple of wins and then Lo loses to something called a Tanner sarino and and then he’s hasn’t fought hasn’t fought MMA since though um so yeah it’s not exactly an uh an on inspiring per performance Michael Gilmore one of the other guys that is like one of the worst guys that we’ve seen so I’m with you um I think the steam was probably right there’s enough question marks I wasn’t wouldn’t be feeling comfortable laying the minus 260 that they opened it at but uh at close to a pick them yeah it’s themba for me as well all right we got Adrien janz taking on vincius Salvador Adrien jannes is a minus 370 favorite Salvador can be had for plus 310 Jann is the second biggest favorite on the card I imagine the pick is giannes here Cody yeah yeah it just seems like another spot where they I would say dare I say trying to get jannis back on track the UFC loved Adrien jannis man they kept putting in these boards about you know best boxing in MMA and how this guy could go over in a crossover fight and do so well and legitimately he is like a poor man’s George mosol but the thing with these George mosol and Luke rockold and just these cool calm style type Fighters is that they’re slow to get going sometimes yeah Moz all hit you with the flying knee great but for the most part it’s like they dro the first round mozal has been screwed on a ton of decision losses in his career because he just he’s so talented that he doesn’t see the immediate danger therefore he doesn’t get going right away he needs a round or two and then there’s no saying how much damage could rack up in that time if you look at janz and all the performances he looks bad in you have to go to the Randy Costa fight he he like Los this is the first round of Randy Costa for no other reason than ry’s just throwing nothing but Jabs and head kicks and jannis is just buying his time buying his time blocking slipping moving not throwing really anything back gets out worked in the first round but he gets the second round knockout his fight with DAV Grant close fight but DAV Grant’s a go-getter blue Coller hardworking man and giann is a bit of a stylist so that is going to lead to these close contentious type fights um then and then the UFC likes us the guy so much they’re like okay let’s throw him into these tough fights let’s move him up the rankings for real so they give him Rob font now Rob font’s not known as the biggest power puncher he can land 200 significant strikes on you and not put you down he landed over a hundred significant strikes on Cody garbrandt didn’t put Cody garbrandt down okay font’s not really that big of a power puncher but the problem with Giannis is because he’s a slow starter and font’s a quick starter font just gets the jump on him starts hitting him hurts him right away hits him with the right hook less than three minutes into the first round they fold him over they don’t give him a bounceback fight they say here’s Jonathan Martinez and the problem with that one is Janis is very very flat-footed like he’s dare I say one-dimensional with his boxing it’s not one-dimensional but like he’s he’s clearly looking to box in there so he’s extremely flat-footed and when you take three four minutes to get going and your opponent throws nothing but leg kicks it’s a bad game plan you’re too heavy on your lead leg to begin with you’re allowing him to just kick kick kick and now three minutes in you want to start countering but your leg’s gone so Martinez had a brilliant game plan and a good guy just just fought Jose Aldo like come on but it’s another spot where janz has very questionable ring IQ and is just not quick enough of a starter so they know they got a really talented guy who’s still young and is still you know a prospect but when they threw him into top five top 10 competition he did not swim with those boys now they need to reel it back when you look at venicius Salvador Vena Salvador has been a career 125 pounder right on the contender series he fought Shannon Ross at 125 your boy Shannon Ross and for the record I know what the hell you’ve actually bet him I was just like just one time just one time I could take a punch better than this guy no I’ll tell you why I say that is because I did better one time but it was uh the Jesus agular I think anyways he had zero wins by by he never knocked out anybody in his entire career he like eight submission wins and zero knockout wins and Paul’s like that it honestly doesn’t matter this will be his first one Not only was it first one it was less than a minute into the fight so Shan can’t take a punch but yet Shannon Ross went 9 minutes and 22 seconds with Venus Salvador so Shannon Ross had a lot of good moments in the fight with venicius Salvador was hitting him was hurting him and then he eventually finds a way to put Shannon Ross away but again 125 big 125er but he is a flyweight then he fights Victor Alam Morano again this is another Alam Morano is a smallish 125 but he’s got speed he’s got volume he predominantly a striker good enough taked down defense to keep the fight upright and then go go go and again you see in those type spots where he’s just not super comfortable in there he’s a big tall guy he’s a little bit slow he’s willing to throw down but he just falls behind the Striking count against alter Morano outstruck 62 to 47 and he also gives up three tick Downs in the mix not that I think that yanz mixes in takedowns it’s that he’s not a great Striker and he’s not a great Grappler so the UFC’s got a guy moving up from 125 he’s one he’s 0 and2 in the UFC the one win on the contender series is against who would you would say probably the worst M your Mount Rushmore at Flyway I know who’s on it okay so this is what would be considered the bottom of the barrel now he’s moving up a weight class same thing with CJ vergera CJ Verger is limited but he’s a go-getter boy this guy stays in your face and he throws down and so he just can’t stick with the stat count he can’t keep up with them and he gets out struck 10988 against a guy that’s a top 15 at the division at best and never going to break in past that so so you know you have some limited stuff janz fights Rob font who’s been a top five guy in the division and then follows that up with a fight with Jonathan Martinez who’s been a top seven or eight of the division they’re 100% like you need a bounceback you deserve a bounceback and they have found him the bounce back as a Matchmaker I know this now Will he win well that’s up to him but he’s not shot he’s not done you could say that his durability is not great that’s fair but Salvador is not a hitter so where does Salvador win does he drag giann to the ground round possible but not likely do they standing banging out jannis works his body you know works that jab Works to the outside looks okay the first round starts to feel more comfortable the second seizes the day and knocks him out in the third that’s that’s a lot more likely of a scenario truth be told so I got yanz to take the bounce back and do exactly what he’s supposed to do with it if you wanted to like chase some crazy prop maybe like a Jann round three knockout because again Jann’s Knockouts tend to materialize later and Venus now up a weight class even though he’s a big flyweight and he won’t have to cut as much the guys at 35 hit infinitely harder than the guys at 25 and I think he’s about to experience that firsthand yeah it’s a little bit too early in the week for those types of props to like matriculate because the ones I’m looking at right now aren’t very G like round three KO for janz is plus 700 which I feel somebody will probably offer something better than that it’s a round three prop like um not that like submissions aren’t really in play for him but yeah a lot of what you said makes 100% sense is like salv was taken down three times against El Morano so a flyweight it’s just like his wrestling game hasn’t really quite been there really didn’t uh attempt any takedowns against Shannon Ross who is like primarily a kickboxer I know that like you want to just you know knock him down find knock I mean that’s what you do against Shannon Ross you don’t really necessarily have to even attempt takedown till just you know fall down get knocked down um to finish off the fight uh everything kind of points towards Adrian Yan is getting back on track minus 370 price does seem a little bit steep but I mean even Vinci Salvador being a big flyweight coming up to this division they’re going to be about the same size if like tapology is to be trusted they’re about the same height about the same reach so it’s like there’s nothing too particularly scary about Vinci Salvador for Adrian Jana so I’m with you I I expect him to get back on track we got Angela Hill taking on Luana Pinero Angela Hill is a minus 145 Pano can be had for plus 120 I mean everything about this fight just kind of screams like ah Angela Hill volume pulls it out wins a close probably relatively greasy decision um because that’s what she does against like this level of of uh Prospect trying to move up the ranks what are what are your thoughts about this fight yeah listen I think we all expect that it’s going to be close and competitive likely go three rounds and then you just want to be sitting on the right side the decision it could be similar to a Tia Torres type fight not the way it plays out but just they’re close rounds you can say one fighter one but one fighter won by what margin right so with Lana Pinero she’s not particularly young so their problems I don’t think that she might correct but she’s like massive front runner man like I don’t know if it’s nervous energy or if she’s got supreme confidence in her abilities to just finish these opponents really quick but she goes out there and she just she throws down fast when it doesn’t work out she gasses she gasses by quite a margin people remember the Ronda Marcos fight where she dominates the first round then the second round she’s running on fumes against a girl that had I love Ronda Marcos but a girl that had an extremely limited run within the organization gives her everything she can handle the tides are turning and presented with the first opportunity to quit here’s a great okay rebecky we know he screwed me okay but let’s just give him the one thing I’ll only give him he’s dead to me and I’ll give him the one little thing I’ll give him the one little thing is that the in the second round he wins the first round in the second round there’s a headbutt the headbutt closes his eye and splits his eye so now he’s got a fat gash that at one point they sto the minute eight left in the second round they sto the action to look at the cut on his head his face is swelling shut had he just told the guy I can’t see had he told the guy n man they would have gone to the instant replay they would have seen him was caused by a head Clash it would have gone to because he didn’t look say pause pause pause the ref called halt in the action what was this caused by a strike or headbutt the headbutt had already been acknowledged he could have quit then in there they would have gone to the scorecards no they wouldn’t have two full rounds had have been completed even if they would have said well we’ll we’ll judge this second then it would have been one- one a draw if it’s just no no two full rounds completed they you go to a no contest I’m a zillionaire right now but he had enough balls to be like let’s do it so was it smart or was it stupid like Savvy veterans like Diego Sanchez of pulled that I can’t see in one and he wouldn’t have won cuz it was totally accidental but unfortunately that somehow [ __ ] goes here she’s presented with the opportunity and she flat just quits she quit right then and there that was always going to be a problem to me her next fight with Sam Hughes she got the two takedowns she got some control time but she landed 60 significant strikes 6053 very close midling type fight her fight with Waterson she gets out struck 61 to 44 and gave up the takedown want a split decision but it’s like by but how because she lands some bigger strikes I suppose but the cardio’s not there the volume’s not there the grappling is not there there’s not a whole lot that I really love but it’s the Amanda hebus fight to me that was like the real eye opener is that in the heus fight she comes out just smoking here’s a girl that’s 4-0 in the UFC that should be gaining experience that knows she doesn’t have great cardio and just goes out like like rebecky I’m just going to fight a bon head unsustainable pace for the first round and gas my cell out she’s Landing a bunch of shots Landing a bunch of shots getting the better of heus and then all of a sudden heus just waits for her to gas out soon as she does takes over clear knockdown beats on her outw Works her that’s what Angela Hill does best like she’s a Savvy veteran that she’s not she’s got volume for days but she’s not throwing [ __ ] just to throw it she’s setting it up she’s using her footwork she’s using the jab the low kick baiting you into traps using stuff like the body shots using stuff like the leg kicks that don’t necessarily do a ton of damage in that first round but the longer the fight prolongs that’s when she’s going to capitalize she’s very much a technical Striker and a Savvy vet similar to many fighters on the card she’s fighting father time at this point because technically she’s way better it’s that there has some been some regression she’s not as fast as she used to be she’s been getting rocked in a lot more of the fights recently but um similar to a Vincente luk I suppose against Rafael Doos you see her come out in her last fight and utilize wrestling because not only someone that’s been striking in the UFC for a decade but every Camp requires you to wrestle and grapple and attend your jiu-jitsu classes and offensively not terrible man so she got five takedowns her last time out against Denise Gomez Another strong hard-hitting Brazilian I think that she’s going to use a lot of those same veteran Savvy plans here to just allow Luana Pinero to kind of just overexert herself early and then take over it’s going to be a scrap it’s going to be close it might be a split decision Angela Hill’s been in a ton of split decisions generally they don’t always go her way but sometimes they do and I’ll take her on one of those yeah I know I I fully agree um any any any chance for like a a hill round three type of prop you know me I’m always thinking a little greasy CU like I mean hill by decision obviously is the most you know logical way to think about this fight but they’re not giving you much meat on the bone there she’s a minus 140 favorite and it’s plus 100 for her to win by decision you have like 25 to one on her like winning round three which I don’t think is out of the realm of possibility particularly if l i mean Angela Hill just doesn’t really finish anybody uh we’ll see when all the other props open up uh if I take a little shot but like I actually do like Angela Hill to get the job done here but yeah part potentially it’s a better live bet just in the sense of uh you know Panero will come out hot you may get a better price than the minus 140 on on Hill after round one um particularly if the pace is like super super high aged all right we got Tom Nolan taking on Victor martinz Tom Nolan is the biggest favorite on the card he can be had for minus 475 Victor Martinez can be had for plus 375 we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel here Cody what are your thoughts on this one so you’re seeing it like week in and week out that there’s just on every card there’s this one guy that it’s like oh man this Rob Bellis dis spanga he’s got the goods and it’s like vtor patrino he’s got the goods but like none of us can put our finger on it wh why does he have the goods what goods does he have because when you watch it you’re going out on a limb man you’re going out on an absolute limb to be like he’s better than what he shows and he’s saving it and he does this tremendous work in the gym and this that and the other and like Tom Nolan when I watch tape on him it’s like I I him actually think unlike those guys who I think are way more fraudulent now vtor I suppose there’s a body of work to look at but with Tom Nolan it’s like what you do see looks good uh with Michael figl what you do see on the regional scene looks good with matus rebecky what you do see on the regional scene looks good and then they come over to North America and it’s like it’s not clicking it’s not clicking the way it used to be I’m not saying it’s drug testing it’s just like it’s a different format it’s a different lifestyle it’s a different you know doing media and in a public weigh in and then coming out and then having to sign this poster 500 times like I don’t know it’s just like I don’t know what the transition is but a lot of these European guys just kind of struggle when once they do come over Tom Nolan again he’s his grappling is okay you know I think it’s good enough to keep him out of Harm’s Way in certain situations but predominantly this guy’s loging to strike man he’s got nasty striking knows how to put guys away big for the weight class long seems like he’s going to have a bright future Sam Patterson another guy I I bit the the bullet on big tall from the UK looks awesome on the regional scene you know he looked good his last time out but but yeah Patterson faulted in his UFC debut Tom Nolan runs into the same thing he fights Nicholas ma he’s a sizable favorite you’re saying he’s the biggest favorite on this guard he was a minus 350 favorite over Nicholas Ma Ma has had a bad run of late losing I think he was on a three-fight losing streak this was his pink slip fight he really needed it and he just it’s like it’s like right cross boom he hits the deck MOA jumps on him pounces takes him out now why would you want to bet this guy as a side iable favorite over anybody moda’s boxing is okay Moda can crack but again he represented what is considered to be the lower level of the UFC and if this guy can knock you out in a minute just catching with a flash shot it’s problematic could he be like Sam Patterson and look way better in his sophomore outing I think so I I do think he will but it’s not a guy that you can load up on and have a ton of faith on because he’s another looked awesome as a prospect now he’s got to fight some not the big boys but the bigger boys and it doesn’t necessarily work for him but the UFC they paid money they understand he has a fan base they understand he’s got a very fan-friendly style and they understand that there is Talent there and he’s a legitimate Prospect you know and they’re willing to work with those guys and we’ve talked about this last week with with Chase Hooper when they’re willing to work with you they can build you up and give you those right fights as long as borchev should have killed him regardless that Hooper knocked him down it let’s just take that off the table it was that borchev always ends up on the ground and you knew when Hooper ended up on top of him that was it it was going to end up on top and then as soon as that day happened or that moment happened it was over for Bev so whe regardless of a knock down regardless of a ey tapped it was just going to take a single body lock clinch peel them to the ground get on top of them and that was going to be it you can match these guys up properly based on stylistical clashes Victor Martinez he tough some [ __ ] right he’s tough some [ __ ] that just hasn’t really had that much success at this level he’s been fighting professionally for 13 years lost his first two fights starts off 0 and2 and then goes on a run he’s willing to stand in your in the pocket he’s willing to throw down he’s not exactly the fastest guy going he’s not exactly the biggest puncher going but he’s one of these CJ vergera types or one of these I’m willing to just at least stand with you and giving you an entertaining type fight he had picked up not nothing overly notable but a couple okay Regional show wins unlike that Texas scene for Fury jumps over to Contender series beats Jacob Rosal again this is nothing overly significant and then against Jordan levit like I can’t explain it Jordan levit knees him in the face three times from the clinch and he goes down and like levit might be the the softest puncher on the roster right lit’s got almost nothing in his strikes and levit just buzau this guy who for the record had fought when he fought in the contender series he had not fought prior to that in almost three years okay so he went from not fighting for three years to fighting on the contender Series where he won a decision then he had to sit for another over a year like 16 months then he fought Jordan levit where he got knocked out and now he’s been on the bench for another 16 months so he’s had two fights in the last like four years and I don’t like what what there’s such a clear lineup here now what’s the path well Tom Nolan just got punched out by by Nicholas moo Moo’s got legitimate wins on the regional scene you look at him he was good at one time and he’s got a lot of power you can’t take that away from he himself might not be the complete package and he’s chinny and his cardio is not great but like he’s a decent in the- Pocket boxer and he’s got a lot of power guys like that can catch Tom Nolan Martinez’s last knockout win again it’s five years ago not it’s four and a half years ago he he beat Lou Luna on a first round knockout Louis Luna currently rocking a 19 and 11 record he’s a very well-known Texas journeyman but still that’s that’s who he’d beat prior to that Nico etch fairy K he caught him as well that was that same year 2019 that’s it he’s got five six seven eight wins by knockout on his record so if you just look at him on a sherdog.com or something you see eight eight knockout wins this guy can crack but again he’s most of those are between the last five and 10 years and uh he he it’s just like run-of-the-mill guys right now now there’s a jump up in competition Tom noan is a jump up in competition he’s a better fighter he’s faster than him he’s longer than him he hits harder than him his cardio is better than him it’s just you’re you’re you’re banking on to punch his chance that’s it could it happen Paul you know as well as I do it could but will it happen now I’m going to say no so Tom Nolan’s the player yeah Victor Martinez’s nickname is the brick I feel like you have to change your nickname if you get knocked out in the first round by Jordan levit who literally has like not really much power to speak of I guess there was what the was that Matt Wyman when Wyman came back was like the Tak down slam with the elbow which was like pretty nasty other than that it’s like the guy’s mostly a Grappler he wants to tie you up he wants to take you to the m he wants to submit you like getting knocked out twerk on you it was a that’s a pretty bad look I understand why Tom Nolan’s a favorite obviously there’s big question marks I don’t think I’m going to get involved too much with this fight because you know with that question mark with a spotty chin let’s just call that it’s obviously already been exposed he’s only seven fights into his professional career that’s just a dangerous proposition at minus 500 for me to really attack this fight there’s 12 fights on the card I won’t be really forcing action at Tom Nolan but he will be the pick all right we got Umar C taking on Tuco tokos uh the board has question marks because this fight just got booked but it does seem like there’s some odds out there right now minus 285 I’m sure these are going to move quite a bit because they weren’t available literally like a couple hours ago when I made these Graphics um minus 285 for umarc too toos who’s coming in on incredibly short notice and it sounds like he’s traveled a long way to get here and yada yada yada can be had for plus 225 I mean to Tuco you may be familiar with him from uh he got absolutely Molly whopped by mingyang xang who I mean showed up in the UFC and seems to be a bit of a murderous power puncher but I mean there’s some big time question marks anytime he stepped up to this level he’s been kind of absolutely flatlined like he did against Ty gerder in uh in Bellator before this umarc on the other hand was watching some tape on him before we came in here I think he’s a very very green green Prospect I think he can get through this fight but like it’s a lot of most of his game seems to be predicated on him getting takedowns even like some of his like knockdowns he has like a head kick knockout on the regional scene it’s like he’s slipping under his foot when he hits that and he’s like he’s fighting like a real low-level scrub it’s like he wants to get this fight to the mad he wants to do that pretty much immediately um based on like all of the scenarios and everything of you know how this fight came together the short amount of time for toos or toos I I’ll be picking Umar C but I hope they line this guy Umar C uh as a big obviously he’s 9 and0 he’s got some creditable wins but like those credible wins against former UFC veterans in his last two fights it’s like those are guys who are way way way past their Prime at the ilar Al alant alcanta and uh Luis Frankenstein right remember Luis Henrik D Silva so those are his last two wins and it’s it’s mostly the same type of thing take him down either ground and pound from backround like he’s always he he seems to have like a system to him it’s like if he gets some resistance which I don’t know if Toco tokos can pull or can provide here I’ll be fading umarc but for this fight I think he gets the job done what about you yeah I’m just trying to confirm I’m pretty sure Umar C is sau’s brother um anyways I’d have to confirm that though affiliated with Bulgarian top team which I found interesting at least that’s what tap topology says right and right now he’s at Allstar he’s with Vulcan us deir and and gustofson so he gets working I see I thought for some reason that they were brothers but now that I’m trying to look it up I’m on her Instagram I don’t see I can’t confirm it and then it would probably sound very racist of me just to assume that and and and and with sadu he’s Swedish and this guy he’s French but it’s a traveling family is the main thing is that sadu is from Sweden he the family traveled around a lot he’s traveled around a lot he ends up in Las Vegas Umar Umar in France then he moved to Bulgaria for a long period of time and now he’s over in Sweden so Europe is not I wouldn’t say like it’s not big but it’s like everyone’s got a passport and people tend to travel around a lot so I again he’s physically a specimen he’s a very strong guy he was fought for ksw for a while looked pretty good there like Paul’s saying he is green he’s not completely refined but he’s only 28 years old and when you look at s’s game he that he’s like a long Striker who’s been adding the grappling to his game and that’s resulted in solid win streak and you know he won a million dollars in a pfl tournament with with Umar it’s he is kind of the opposite is that he prefers to Grapple he gets a lot of uh takedowns in these spots he’s physically strong he’s capable of getting you down and dominating you and now as a result I don’t know that there’s a whole lot of guys lining up to face him they’ll face him because it’s like oh it’s a an opportunity to fight in the UFC but the guys that are already in the UFC are not signing up for this one and you look at just like he’s got four canceled bows last time he fought was a year ago and that’s not by his own problem that’s just nobody to F him this Ivo cuck right he’s like I’d rather watch somebody sleep with my wife keber Silva he’s like you know the fight got cancelled Rodolfo bolato bolato pulls out they give him Antonio troli troli pulls out and now he’s getting Toco toos him versus troli at minus 250 he was at the time I love that I was going to line up on C this is a different matchup so I think he beats tokos but I don’t think you’re going to get that good of a price tag on him what did you say it was at right now I mean it’s probably super super fresh and green this number so I expect it to move but it’s minus 285 plus 225 yeah so it’s not like super off I suppose from where it was yeah with two Co it’s like it’s not that there’s anything against him is that he’s another one of these very talented European type Fighters and you see the same thing in boxing it’s called European level there’s European Champions and there’s guys that will be career European level Fighters that’ll take one sniff at that world championship level and just get dusted out they’re brought in with nicel looking records built up on one scene now they’re jumping into an international a global scene and there’s just like a a giant jump up toos ises the same thing he starts off four and0 he looked good Bellator signs him on the basis of that he tug on this Kevin frier he’s a big favorite he drops a decision his next fight against Ty gerder he’s a big favorite he gets knocked down in the third round Bellator Cuts him this point he does end up State side and fury FC tends to use him um wins a couple fights there Ty Flores most notably because Ty Flores fights for pfl more a grinder not really a durable guy that can take a punch but a decent win there brings him on the contender Series this is another spot where he is a minus 675 favorite over mingyang Z is what he went off at right but you’ve seen him twice in Bellator he’s 0 and two in Bellator for the record and both times as a favorite he didn’t look good now he’s on the contender series as a near seven to one favorite biggest favorite on the card less than four minutes in the first round he gets piped so so another just very untrustworthy guy that you really couldn’t get behind but he travels around a little bit and he picks up a couple wins and it’s not that he doesn’t look good when he’s in there but the the first guy Gabriel thoto is three- two well you should win that one then he fights get that’s one and seven so he’s eight and three he’s fought twice for ballator once in the contender series but he’s fighting a dude that’s one and seven for what reason for what reason to pad your record because you as an athlete are not getting anything from that you would if you were 1 and0 2-0 3 and0 you know like early in your career you could benefit from 1 and seven if you really need a confidence boost because you’re on a four-fight losing streak you might take a one and seven this guy just does because that’s the level that he operates at that myON Dennis is not really that big of a step up from a one and seven guy these days but myON Dennis hurts his arm early so considered a decent win but not not a great fight in in in itself I think he’s super chinny I think he doesn’t have great durability cardio is not great kind of a Sitting Duck there at times and with sad sad takes him down he’s going to ground and pound him out if he doesn’t there’s a chance he just Co coocks him with something similar to thema gimbo I’m a natural Grappler but I have tons of power in my hands Kevin randman remember him guy was a fantastic wrestler one of the best striking oh dude it was so stiff and robotic if he hit you like Miracle kokov he hit you you’re dead you’re dead because he had all the power in the world he just wasn’t a striker didn’t know how to set it up didn’t know how to throw it c will eventually get to that point see will eventually become a lot more well-rounded CU he’s got all the goods he just needs the experience and the Comfort level and all that just comes with time so yeah I think he goes out there and smashes up a Toco set think about it from too’s standpoint I want to get paid to be a pro MMA fighter okay you cannot make a living as a pro MMA fighter unless you fight in the UFC or maybe you can fighting like Bellator pfl there’s a chance there maybe like a one Championship maybe a ksw but again you’re looking at the highest ranking the best organizations in the world okay so in too’s case when he signs a Bellator that’s his opportunity and what does he do he loses his first two fights against Kevin frier and Ty gerder both of whom never went on to go do anything no that his chance and he just fails out right flails out right then and there back on the regional scene builds up a winning streak okay on the contender series they’ve given me a guy that I’m a seven to one favorite over everybody that’s watched tape on this expects me to kill this guy and he gets he gets stiffed okay now you get back in the regional scene and you win three more and they’re like you want to take a fight on four days notice against a guy it’s like a very legitimate Prospect looks like he could be the real deal you’re not going to say no you said no your dreams are over go get a real job you’re gonna say yeah you’re gonna show up you’re gonna get your ass kicked you’re gonna sign a forite deal though they’ll give you at least two more hell they might even give you three more and and and then yeah that’s up to you to get your career back on track but at the very least you attained your dream me to the UFC between the $122,000 are going to show you to give you to show up and the $5,000 Venom’s going to give you uh $177,000 is a career high Payday for him why wouldn’t you take it and cuz it’s punchy kicky he could land he could pull something off he could land a knee up the middle he could get a quick little guillotin submission s see could have a stomach bug and gas out right away anything can happen it’s just like less and less likely so give me uh Umar C sorry um yeah you called him sbu a few times I know I know I I yeah I know I know I know I did and that’s my bad and I apologize for that but yeah I I was getting going there you’re just trying to say c c c c but it’s it’s it’s then it’s like man is he saying yes in Spanish is he is he trying to make me see something it’s h so I try to use his full name and then I’m should I butchered it a few times but there’s no way you’re thinking I didn’t know who he was talking about during that rant at least you know who I was talking about uh hopefully C goes out and gets the W I guess we will see um but yeah I mean there is no nothing on social media that would prove that they are related in any way shape or form C may just be a very very popular last name um it could it could so let’s drop that one he’s his own man he needs to go and make his own his style is considerably different than his alleged brother according to not racist but potentially racist Cody I’m kidding I’m kidding all right moving on down we’ve got Melissa gate taking on tamiris Vidal Melissa G A minus 320 favor Vidal can be had for plus 250 in my mind all I think about is when Vidal on the regional scene in that like that gym or whatever in um in Argentina or wherever the hell that you know Mickey Mouse promotion was being held I think of you know it’s that fight that is the illegal needs but she was getting absolutely Ragdoll and then I think of Melissa gate and how physically powerful she is um in most of her fights she’s had some somewhat tough opponents over like lipsky’s been making some improvements Tracy Cortez is a solid all-around wrestler I mean the only the only wins at the UFC level are you know Eubanks and Leonardo which are pretty low level don’t get me wrong she’s big favorite here but unless Vidal has made some significant improvements here I think she gets absolutely manhandled and and and outg grappled and and controlled quite easily um I know the CF dot model and and all of that but Vidal is not going to be someone I invest money in probably ever in the UFC so it’s goto for me will you yeah I go to agree it’s like you know you’re a product of your surroundings in Vidal’s case uh she fought Eileen Perez in that fight that you’re referring to so both girls both yeah both girls made the UFC pretty crazy how that works out but yeah it’s like there’s limitations there and she’s super she gets a disqualification win in that spot but since then it’s like um again like she’s a go-getter I just think there’s like massive limitations to every area of her game she’s not a very good Striker her footwork is non-existent she doesn’t move her head there’s no real power in her hands she’s not setting anything up there’s no volume there there’s no deep game planning there’s no you know yeah maybe maybe throw throw a couple hands Chuck some hands throw a little leather and then maybe try to grab a hold of her and pin her up against the cage for a little bit but again there’s just not enough there she beats Ramona Pasqual and that’s a career best win for because it’s a UFC Victory with a flying knee she got a $50,000 performance bonus out of it how crazy is that and that’s like that’s that’s the mountain peak of your career because now it’s all valleys they give her M uh monserat renon it’s a split decision you know I can’t agree that it was a split I thought renon won the fight but again with Vidal you would have to really just give her a lot of time I would think on the regional scene she’s only 25 so this is not someone that would be bad forever it’s that there’s not winnable fights for her in the UFC or very few of them whereas Melissa go it’s it’s a bounceback it’s another case and that’s The Narrative of this card this card is the UFC is doing people some favors or trying to do some people some favors and this is the card that’s landing on and that’s exactly the case with got Gotto looked to have the goods man she comes to the UFC she fights um Victoria Leonardo right just smashes over the body kick that Leonardo blocks hits the the forearm breaks the forearm this girl’s got nasty power strong striking comes forward good cardio uh strong physical Grappler I like it they give her a fight with sjara Eubanks he’s a plus 140 Underdog against Eubanks goes out there Subs the takedowns Works her puts her away nasty body kick this one gets through when you don’t block it you’re even in more [ __ ] than when you do block it she hits as a plus 140 Underdog she cashes a $50,000 performance bonus got at this point looks like a legit legate Prospect like she’s going to be good she fights Tracy Cortez right Tracy Cortez is a top five girl of the division this is a step up this is uh who’s legitimate in this division right in their fight with Cortez she initiates the grappling got three takedowns over Tracy put herself in some really good spots the Striking is there but you see the physicality you see the grappling lots of good stuff to like about got loses a split decision in a very close fight but now you know she can strike and she can grapple cuz Tracy Cortez ain’t no slouch at the in the wrestling Department ain’t no slouch in the grapping Department being able to hang and have good spots great stuff you can take away from that and then she runs into Arion lipsky now this one is where I can’t quite understand it you’ve got all the momentum in the world behind you and you just showed that you could wrestle and then just she went 0 for seven in the takedowns she didn’t really commit to any of them but she never got close to to getting lipsky down so she resulted in just standing there and trading with lipsky and did out Striker 85 to 66 but it’s moments of rounds and like lipsky had the takedown lipsky had a nice little flurry lipsky did enough to Edge that thing out but now you’ve lost two competitive decisions it wasn’t a split against Cortez sorry it was unanimous then she lost a split to Ariana Silva but in the Tracy Cortez fight super close super competitive in the Arana lipsky fight super close super competitive against good girls in the division but she loses them so then they book her against uh that dudova right Victoria dudova and dudova shows up on the scale sces I think I think she showed up in the scales but I I know for a fact Gotto did weigh 125 and then the fight gets canceled D to kova got sick so the UFC gives her her show money and then they’re like hey do you want to fight eight weeks from now up a weight class so she’s going up to 135 to fight v doll which I don’t love they don’t love but to me that’s the UFC being like hey you’re on a two-fight losing streak your fight got cancelled we we know you’re talented we’d like to for you to get back on track so your opponent bails out after you already cut weight and made weight but no athlete fighting in the UFC should be cutting weight that much right fighting getting hit in the head that’s one thing it’s the weight cut is the big thing so instead of being like hey do you mind cutting all the way back down to 125 again in eight weeks they’re like hey we’ll solid your fight will’ll get you a fight you’ll still have that payday very winable fight you’ll have to go up a weight class so you don’t have to cut weight but will give you the worst girl in that weight class so that it offsets it and that’s what you’re seeing here got is way strong at 125 that won’t finish at 135 she’s a way more polished way more powerful way more technical Striker than Vidal she’s a way better wrestler than Vidal she’s got more experience than Vidal she seemingly just got her out gunned everywhere the jump up in weight class little bit problematic Vidal also has a full Camp here because she had another Haley Cowen I think pulled out D injury so like Vidal has a full camp and is a way class up on her right those are her two advantages whereas got is a weight class down and probably doesn’t have a full camp for this one but her and her team team would have accepted it for a very specific reason it’s a bounceback that’s what it is she needs to go and deliver in the spot 100% All Right Moving On Down we’ve got abis magedov taking on warley Alves abis is a minus 280 favorite warley can be had for plus 240 I mean nobody warley at 185 doesn’t seem like a great idea I know ilis scav was obviously a super tough matchup but it’s like the reading’s been on the wall for this guy for a long long time he can be dangerous he can land some absolutely lethal body kicks and and he put can put the hert on you very very early in fights G guy’s an absolute gas bag magam made of obviously against Sean Strickland he looked like a million bucks in round one maybe the moment maybe the pressure everything kind of got to him and he fell off an absolute Cliff I don’t know if that was entirely like hey this guy’s an absolute gas bag or he set a pace basically early against Sean Strickland thinking like the only way I’m going to beat this guy is if I knock him out early and uh and you know he succumbed to succumbed to it in round two um got absolutely Molly wed once he fell off of a cliff like that was like one of the more bizarre like changing of the ties we were on Strickland but like my butt was absolutely puckered uh in that spot uh just kind of looking at how successful abis was in round one there um at the end of the day it kind of comes down to like I mean this is a fight that obviously doesn’t go to decision there is some volatility some scary moments potentially early but like I hate warley at at 185 pounds like I he was never really big at 170 pounds um compared to a lot of his other opponents he’s given up a ton of size here may have a little bit of success early but I expect abis to catch him uh whether it’s like end of round one or maybe in round two or something just manage your manage your cardio a little bit better and warley will typically I mean maybe the cardio for warley was part of the issue at 170 is like maybe he’ll have better cardio at 185 but we don’t really know that yet um abis seems like the rifle favorite in my opinion what about you yeah abis is definitely the rifle favorite it just yeah it’s two guys with bad cardio so as much as we think abis is going to win the pck is definitely abis magov uh because he’s like a big enough price tag near 3 to one that the worry is just like his last two fights like when the wheels fall off for this guy boy oh boy do they ever fall off the luckily thing here I know I’m going to sound like a broken record is it’s very much a bounceback fight the UFC knows what they’re doing abis has got a lot of talent has just fought two of the best guys in the sport and now they need to put him back on track so you go and you dig up and you don’t go and you take the number five guy in the division you don’t take the number eight guy in the division you don’t take the number 10 guy of the division you don’t take the number 15 guy of the division you don’t take the number 20 guy in the division hell Paul Worley Alves might not be the number 25 guy in the division he’s a career welterweight one tough Brazil back in the day at70 pounds his entire career is at 170 pounds he’s got one career high moment one tough Brazil That’s a career high moment I suppose but it’s not real Ultimate Fighter and winning Top’s kind of stupid these days anyways but he’s got a win over Colby Covington Guillotine choke nasty work there was a time where drug testing wasn’t really all that prevalent where warley Alves was pretty goddamn good a nasty body kick super explosive bang bang bang he hits you you’re in a world of [ __ ] he grabs a hold of your neck you’re in a world of [ __ ] for five minutes first guy to actually expose him outright is uh Brian barbaren he was a minus 600 favorite over Brian barbaren who did quite literally nothing else but just be tough and that was enough Usman he’s obviously good James Crow Underdog same thing Randy Brown submitted him who saw that one coming he was a favorite minus 200 over Jeremiah Wells he was a favorite over Nicholas Dolby minus 135 faed over Randy Brown favored over James CR minus 320 so he’s all of his losses Brian Barber 1 2 3 four five five of his seven losses in the UFC was him as a sizable favorite because he’s a pie [ __ ] okay untrustworthy got a lot of skill for that first three four five minutes but that’s it he doesn’t got I wouldn’t say it’s doesn’t got the heart of a fighter but like his cardio is just not there and when you get tired and you’re fighting Elite level competitors it’s going to be a problem he starts to eventually just look checked out you know this guy’s checked out he’s showing up not for the paycheck but maybe just showing up to get the thing over with his fight with uh Nicholas Dolby although it was a close split decision and dob is a decent fighter and it looks good that’s the last time he makes 170 after that he takes nine months off and comes up to 185 pounds versus Ram alisov now he’s a 5 to one Underdog which is not a spot he usually takes he usually fights the worst guys he can or at least guys that he’s a big favorite over but he took the fight over alisam up away class toughest fight he could first at 185 for no other reason than to get paid and when you see them in the cage when you see them at the weigh-ins you see warley is not a middleweight Paul like he’s not even a big welterweight he’s okay size welterweight he’s not a giant welterweight and he really looks at a place against alisov who’s hell of a big boy and in that spot it’s like yeah he just looks out of it of sorts that big Power at 170 that quick body kick you know hit Manu Zas you know that that quick Guillotine choke once that stops working now you’re up a weight class on bigger guys yeah he doesn’t have to cut weight that’s fine he’s not in great shape his cardio is not good he never has been all that good he’s just like a a quick guy if he gets that quick win that’s fine again the longer it prolongs is going to be a problem for him his benefit is the same thing as Abo’s benefit is that Abus is you know Abus is more of a quitter and also has the bad cardio but in Abo’s case what you can’t take away from him is that he still to this day has world class skills his fight with Shan Strickland he wins the first round he outstruck Shan Strickland 30 2 to 11 in the first round so he tripled him up and he took him down and people don’t usually take down Sean Strickland he’s a brick wall not only does he take him down it’s like God damn this guy’s as advertised dagani wrestler from a famous you know a famous family um what’s their not to life from aboose Maga you like him the guy can wrestle the guy can strike the guy’s got volume the guy’s got all the goods it’s the same thing is that he’s not a complete fighter cuz he can’t fight Beyond five minutes Beyond 10 minutes so when he gases against Shan Strickland it’s a bad place to be his next fight against KO Bara how many people had a bet on KO myself included that were like sweating out that first round K looks like [ __ ] he can’t get nothing going against aboose anybody tires in the second round and more so than he tires it’s the same thing Shawn drops him when Shawn drops him the wheels fall right off K Bara drops him once KO drops him the wheels fall right off CU now it’s cardio and he’s he doesn’t find that resolve some guys are better like Nate L he’s better when he hits the deck he’s better when you rock him then they turn it on Chris lean was always like that they turn it on Forest Griffin legendary Fighters you know once the going gets tough that’s when the tough get going aboose is not that he’s got all the skills in the world extremely talented but like as soon as he gets hit and he’s rocked he’s kind of looking for a way out now it’s fair to look for a way out versus Sean strickley a former world champion and there’s it’s fun to look out for a weo versus K barau he’s at the very least probably a future title Contender warley Alves this is your bounceback he’s a washed up three-fight losing streak former welterweight who’s 33 years old which is the same age as a boost but one guy at least is still fighting some of the best guys in the game and one guy’s losing to Fringe contenders so this is not his way class he’s 0 and one here he looked vastly out of place and now he’s taking on a poor man’s version of the same type of guy he just fought which is a hard-hitting rushing guy with some wrestling and some grappling to back it up with if you’re AB Boose and you’re Abo’s sponsor and you’re Abo’s coach and your Abo’s team you’ve got one of two choices you find a way to get EPO into this man’s veins or he just got to work the [ __ ] of his cardio man it’s got to be cardio cardio cardio cardio and then he could actually be good but they’re not idiots and they’re saying the same thing that we’re seeing hey man our guy’s doing good dude he look good against trickin before he G he look good against K Bal before he G well let’s fix the cardio issues and if they do that against worle alvas of all people that’s not going to drag them into deep Waters this is an extremely winnable fight for him Paul and so for that reason yes I think his wrestling is more than good enough to keep the fight standing he striking he’s going to use his jab he uses speed his longer frame if he doesn’t just call coock outright um warley Alves I think that he’ll just be able to keep him on the end of the jab outwork them get him to the second the pace slows down they’re both not throwing in all that much mix in a takedown don’t stick your head in a guillotine choke like Colby did but if you avoid those two spots you probably win two of these three rounds I would hate to say it’s a fight that goes to decision because it’s going to be just they’re go both going to be so sloppy if it makes it that far I don’t know if it’s going to make it that far someone’s going to gas and fall over first I’m just hoping it’s not magov so give me a boost to get the job done and get back on track all right we got pierra Rodriguez taking on Arion carel Losi Pierre Rodriguez is a minus 220 favor carel Losi can be had for plus 180 who you got I really don’t have a whole lot of underdogs on this card and uh again I just I can’t force the spot but Paul’s got another dog Paul’s got Edson Barbosa CH hats off to him outside of that like do you got anybody else is there any other dog that you like had some strong lean towards if think this one does are were you asking me a question or no because you asked me yes well I asked you but then I laid out the options but do you have an answer who’s who’s the best Underdog other than your Barbosa Pig maybe careli CF do model here cuz like Pier’s got low low volume stri all of these fights have been like pretty low level of competition they’ve been relatively close she got subbed obviously last time out um caral loi’s been in there with some pretty tough opponents over the course of her UFC career she does not have the greatest wrestling but has had decent I mean against Estella Nunes she was able when she had a massive strength Advantage was able to get five takedowns uh lupy lupy absolutely dominates probably both of these oppon or both of them so throw that one out you got absolutely muled but didn’t give up went the full distance in that fight leang na came out had some success with the wrestling against caral Losi early but um obviously she fell off a cliff she was able to get the finish and then I mean going up against a veteran like Angela Hill no real shame in that particularly when it’s your UFC debut um and I mean carinal Losi is built like a uh like a fire hydren girl super super strong um yeah I think if any dog has my attention this week I feel like it’s caral OSI um just with like physicality really what it comes down to she’s super super strong and if she’s making improvements I think this fight could be a lot closer than than the line of minus 220 plus 180 so to to take yeah to take uh to get out of the way for you uh yeah Cari was going to be my pick here as the big dog I mean I’ve already taken Barbosa and Carlon Harris but that one’s pretty much a pick them um but yeah car will be the under dog oh yeah then that’s that’s what I’m saying too is like I don’t like to force a spot where it’s like oh I need an underdog I need an underdog but we have to recognize that it would be a rarity for all the favorites to win so at the very least which favorite is going to [ __ ] in the pie and Pi Rodriguez is that fighter not because there’s anything wrong about her but there’s no no definitive go-getter um move forward and get the victory if need be it’s more so so just low volume going through the paces bit of a sparring match she’s physically strong but her offensive wrestling is not that good it’s okay it’s okay it’s not something I think she can rely on her grappling Is Not Great not something she can rely on and the Striking it’s a little bit stiff it’s a little bit predictable I don’t mind her I I like that there’s a certain type of Jenna qua to her game but I don’t know what it is and and and it doesn’t always lead to the victories when I see her on the contender series against vesa Machado the first first two rounds again she’s rugged she’ll come forward she’ll take your best punch she’ll throw one back is it the a winning style all the time it leads to close fights but she can win the first two rounds the third round she kind of gasses as far as I’m concerned drops the third still wins the fight her fight with Kay Hansen in the third round she lands 14 significant strikes it’s a low for the for the fight she’s tied in the third round her fight was Sam Hughes 2928 on the basis of this is a hotly contested fight where she does a career high 83 so that’s a fight where Sam Hughes pushes her to her limits she responds she had a decent third round in terms of volume but a nicked up fight that you can see that that aggression that athleticism that power it starts to vanish the longer these fights goes she takes down Sam Hughes five times she doesn’t want to strike with Hughes hughes’s forward pressure has got her tired now she’s huffing and puffing now she doesn’t like that Hughes is starting to build some momentum and rally so she’s able to take her down you take that taked down off the table it’s not going to go good for her and then she runs into Julian Robertson now Robertson’s a better wrestler Robertson’s a better Grappler Robertson doesn’t have great cardio but has probably better cardio than Pierry and you see Rodriguez starts off good but the longer the fight goes again it’s like she gets an early takedown she muscles it Robertson gets back up then Robertson gets a taked down Rodriguez isn’t moving Rodriguez isn’t scrambling Rodriguez is sucking for air only unlike those other girls that were just willing to stand in front of her in Spar she’s got someone that’s hyper aggressive and looking for takedowns submissions so it doesn’t go good against Robertson now with with Rodriguez again she’s 32 years old so I don’t see her game getting incrementally better she may come in better shape she may come with a better game plan but I don’t think that this is someone that shows up and you say damn her striking looks way better damn her wrestling looks way better it’s whether what she’s got is enough to beat the opponent in front of her caral Losi meanwhile caral Losi got I think the cardio Edge if you look at her fight with Nang nang’s a front runner we all know this nang’s actually not bad for five minutes and then just gives it up to everybody and in that fight with caral Losi she has a quick start three takedowns carosi Works her way back up starts to land those shots she’s built like Liz kmoch like she is a very well put together physically in shape individual and as soon as Nang tires out she capitalizes and knocks her out her fight with Estella Nunes she arguably loses the first two rounds Estella Nunes is is someone who has good skill very limited gas tank the second Estella GES caros is there to capitalize takes her down takes her back locks her up with the rear naked choke and then her fight with Lupa go does her last time out unfortunately there’s limitations to this carosi is physically strong you know she’s got some okay skills but she’s never going to be a top 10 Contender Lup godz is just much better all around Lupita takes her eight down eight times but I’ll be damned cardal Losi is physically strong she works her way back to the cage she creates space she gets back up she gets taken back down she works her way back up and lupy I rate way higher than Rodriguez and lup’s wrestling I rate way higher than Rodriguez and if she’s able to continuously get back up like that against godinez then if Rodriguez does take her down she’s going to get back up the wrestling is going to be exhausting and it’s going to exhaust Rodriguez who’s got a suspect gas tank whereas caral Losi she’s used to people dragging her to the ground that’s what they all try to do because when they don’t take her down she throws punches in bunches and uh when you’re built like her you’re you know I wish threw her hip into them a little bit more she generates some more power maybe but like just she’s so muscular that if she hits you it’s going to do damage if she’s throwing high volume with that kind of power and that kind of pace and that kind of get up game so to speak she should at work Rodriguez and get the decision now is it going to be another women’s MMA hotly contested three round Affair could be a split internet doesn’t agree maybe maybe but dude look at the odds like would the odds suggest that now oh man this is a pick them at best and they got Rodriguez way inflated so automatic caral Losi bet let’s get this thing done probably the PRP pick but again let’s get this thing done and I will say just looking at Instagram right now bro post you saw carnelossi do you have t you’re going to need some tickets to the gun show because she is looking jacked she dude she’s she she was already jacked but like she takes her strength and condition conditioning very very very seriously we’ll just say that I thought it was when I was on Instagram earlier I was like you know what maybe I should just bite the bullet and take Edson barosi here but dude it was caral Losi and at that point I was like oh this is this is my dog of the week I am in all right we got Clayton Rodriguez taking on alot Tang Hali minus 150 for cadson plus 130 for alang Hali your thoughts no real thoughts like with cliton Rodriguez I I thought this guy was like a damn talented 125 pounder like he looked like he was going to be a solid flyweight giant for the way class and legitimate skills he moves well uh he’s got you know precise striking not like a I wouldn’t say not a ton of power because he knocks a lot of guys out but it is flyweight and he’s a lot bigger than them for the truth to be told wins on the contender series against that Santo Kuro not a huge win but still I like Kuro wasn’t a bad win and then then loses to CJ vergera that one burnt my ass cuz he was a minus 360 favorite and expected to win against a just stay busy guy like vergera but the weight cut kills him because he can’t make 125 so him attempting to make 125 will lead to that his next fight against Shannon Ross we talked about earlier but he does to Shannon Ross what you’re supposed to do and that’s folds him up in a minute um but he miss weight for the fight so here’s a guy that just 25 is not on the cards for him they book him against Tatsu Tyra and the fight got called off because he steps scale at 129 so misss weight back-to-back fights one of them happened one of them didn’t when he did lose to that fight to CJ vergera that’s him making 125 and probably exhausting himself so they throw him in at bantamweight and they give him freed bosot it’s not a good fight it’s not a particularly favorable debut in the 135 pound division like what he had at 125 like what made him good at 125 it’s not actually there anymore like his power at 25 it’s not going to translate as good as 135 lbs where these guys all have better chins they’re used to hitting bigger punchers it’s it’s Fly Away power now with the band weight division his wrestling I mean he’s a tall skinny guy like he can take you down and he does have good Jiu-Jitsu but his cardio seems problematic maybe because of the weight Cuts but his cardio’s problematic his durability seems a little bit problematic now all of a sudden I’m thinking here’s a guy that could be a glass Cannon all the skills in the world to be good offensively but when the tide gets put on him he’s not exactly the most trustworthy the guy going alaton Hale meanwhile he’s kind of the opposite like he’s not spectacular in any one area but he’s tough and he’s rugged and he trains that fight ready MMA one of the best camps going they got the guy in shape he can defensively wrestle when need be he can March forward he can strike when you look at his losses right uh Casey Kenny was whatever happened to casy Kenny he was good ravo Lopez I don’t know that one really hurts me and Chris Gutierrez is last timeout again these guys are good he loses to a good level of competition and none of which have knocked him out like Casey Kenny melted melted him to the body landed 109 significant strikes and it was just teeing off on a punching bag and at no point did h t Le show zero signs of quit he could take one hell of a punch went to distance with Gustavo Lopez because Lopez could take him down consistently still an okay fight his last time out against Chris Gutierrez Gutierrez is too fast he lands 110 significant strikes moving the whole time but you know how goodier fights Touch and Go Touch and Go Touch and Go and can do it all night flighton can’t do that like he can’t move cons consistently he’s not going to hit you and move hit you and move hit you and move he relies on generally getting that quick finish and alang haly never been finished Clinton’s moving up that weight class where he has less power and his wrestling is less effective and alen Le’s established at this weight class wins over Chen aniger that didn’t age terribly because aner is not terrible win over Kevin kro Kevin K’s like five- one in bkfc Ryan Beno beno’s actually also fighting bkfc but beno’s got a win over Sergio Pettis to the naked eye they’re bums none of these guys are bums I’ll telling you he Le a warrior he fights to the level that he’s at he’s in close fights that’s fair if you can associate a decent price tag with him you’ll know he’s going to go out there and fight for your dollar and again on a card that I’m short on underdogs I need one that’s going to fight for my dollar against a potentially fraudulent too big for 25 weight bully at 25 0 and one at 135 didn’t look all that good I I can try to fade that that’s something I can try to fade and which I’ll try to do here by taking the uh the Chinese fighter at slight plus money I can’t really disagree yeah alanga Lee for for his faults is very very diff I mean he’s been he was finished I guess like over 10 years ago like on the regional scene but and I guess kakur finished him as well in Road okay there is some risk there Kaya Sakura is like a Japanese sensation kickboxing master and then you’ll know and then the other guy that knocked him out when it was the whole [ __ ] it was 10 years ago Dennis Pur con 13 you know Dennis Dennis is from Hamilton he’s the Bosnian Menace he’s the man he’s got a fight with Rod Tang coming up for the one Championship 125 pound Muay Tha title he’s dangerous best guy Dennis is the definition of dangerous he smokes and he’s got five minutes of cardio but if he hits you you you’re so dead you’re dead he’s like Melvin manhoff he never put it all together but he’s the one of the most deadliest pure power punchers in the history of power punching and can beat any man on the planet including a horse because if he hits you you’re G to go down so like yeah aliang Hal has been knocked out but again that fight was 10 years ago and his fight with asakura I want to say is like seven years ago and since then he’s he’s he’s been in there with some p with some punchers venius meanwhile his wins with knockout are all you know I mean he knocked out Shannon Ross I guess that one would look good right outside of that he knocked out a four and three guy that was five years ago he knocked out a two and three guy that was six years ago yeah that’s it he’s got three knockout wins on his record of his eight Pro wins he’s got three by knockout and none of which other than Shannon Ross have come in the last five years one in the last five years over Ross so you can’t say one guy Alat Tangi we know is durable you could you knock him out anybody could knock anybody out but it would probably take a legit puncher where Venus did not or Clayton Rodriguez sorry is not a legitimate puncher to begin with if he’s the guy to do it we’ll all be damned yeah Clayton knocked out Shannon Ross but we’ve already went over this already Cody and he missed weight dude he came in at 127 which means he was within one pound and was like no man I can’t do it anymore his fight with Cody dur and he pulled out didn’t want no more the fight with Tyro we mentioned he got on the scale at 129 uh like there’s stuff again the the other loss is CJ verg where he’s a minus 360 favorite and expected to roll so there’s definite question marks you can see he’s got a whole lot of skill but he’s one of these guys that he’s like chocolate once you put the heat to him he melts yep um oh and to answer your question yeah alang Le will be the pick for me as well um but I think maybe a better live betting opportunity where I expect Rodriguez to have some success early in the fight at the very least Casey k I mean lost by split decision to S Yong and Dominic Cruz and then hasn’t fought it’s been almost three years now uh and then he did surface remember when he made those comments about Megan Anderson oh yeah yeah he made those comments about her on some podcast or something like that and then he got shamed by the internet Community his Instagram has a picture from a week ago where he said absolutely nothing but it looks like he’s in the gym training again so I have no idea what this guy’s been up to but yeah no he was super super talented and I mean those two losses are by split decision to two guys that top five in the div I mean Dominic’s probably a little bit over the hill at this point but like right there top five top 10 guys in the world so we I hopefully we see Casey Kenny back in action and we’ll find out what the hell he’s been up to cuz kind of a strange one uh finally we got Emily doot taking on Vanessa demopoulos minus 340 for doot Vanessa Demopolis can be had for plus 280 we’ve talked about Emily deot enough on this program over the years that you have kind of told me she’s a you know Collegiate wrestler or at least High School wrestler that should be a problem for Demopolis Demopolis has a lot of heart good jiujitsu she calls it stripper Jiu-Jitsu or or whatever but if she can’t get the fight to the match she’s probably just eating shots from from range um I feel like she’s probably pretty sub robust here but dakot should be able to handle that as well you know me I I’m always looking for the CF dot model and when to enact it but this doesn’t really seem like the matchup to do it to me what about you well the thing is you could enact the CF model in this spot for one reason and one reason only Vanessa Demopolis has this crazy crazy characteristic to her where this is crazy PA this is crazy if she goes out and she wins the fight then she wins the fight but she could also go out and lose the fight and also still win the fight she just like she has something about her where I don’t understand what the judges are watching but they’ll give her a fight where she’s otherwise getting outstruck out work taken down controlled and uh you know lands a couple pitter patter shots off her back and that’s that’s enough for them that’s enough for them if you look at her fight with jinu fry right so she beats ginu Frey on a split decision and she jumps into bis Bing’s arm and you know oh yeah like like such a well-deserved win right that fight sherdog.com two of two people scored at 3027 for Frey and then MMA junkie sherog had two more people wrestling Observer bloody elbow Euros sport MMA un and uh the Dr reporter. TV all score the fight 29-28 Virginia FR one media member MMA Mania gave the fight to deom so it’s 1 two 3 four five 6 Seven 8 nine 10 11 11 media members score for Frey one gives it to demopoulos two of the three cagide judges give it for de for Vanessa Demopolis that’s fair that’s her first win in the UFC without that win she effectively would have dropped down to uh sorry I’m just bringing it up exactly um yeah no I guess she beat Silva Gomez Warez before that so she loses to JJ Aldrich and then she beats Silva Gomez Warez in a fight that she gets knocked down Gomez Warez jumps on top of her looking to put her away and she snaps up an armar then 11 of 12 media members give it for jinu fry and the judges give it to her then Maria olera Maria Olivera out strikes her 88 83 to 65 to 55 sorry 83 to 55 but you got a knockdown and a a couple takedowns and she creases it in then her fight with um kako Mada for last timeout right her fight with kako Mada is exactly the same thing 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 media members scored it for marada and one gave it for Vanessa deop so of 14 13 of them gave it one way and one gave it the other way and yet all three judges see seemly see it for Vanessa Deus so do they love this groundwork that she’s doing off her back where she just sits there and smacks you in the side of the head is that enough her Tak down defense is non-existent her Tak down offense is pretty well non-existent her striking like she hits hard and she’s a willing participant she’s got she’s a fighter she’s a scrapper she’s willing to just March through the pocket and throw down with you she’s got you know but she doesn’t move her head and she’s not constantly throwing as much as she’s constantly moving so her numbers are generally her getting punched in the face three times for every one punch she can land and then failing on takedown attempts if she can pull guard great but like her Jiu-Jitsu is world class but it’s not so world class that she’s just going to sub you as soon as it hits the ground like there’s been spots where she’s been dominating for three four minutes and not gotten much going so again this is another spot that Vanessa deas is not going to take down Emily D Cody and she’s not really she she is going to stand with her she is going to crash the pocket she’s going to throw down but but doody’s going to be using her footwork she’s going to be moving laterally she’s going to be touching her up she’s going to be counter punching she’s going to be winning on volume she’s got better striking more fine striking better kicking game again did wrestle in college and quite literally what’s our worst case scenario our worst case scenario is dakot throws a kick Vanessa deonas catches it dakot hits the her back and Vanessa’s on top right that’s our worst case scenario correct even in that scenario Emily dakot is a BJJ black belt under hael lado Jr she’s rapael he’s not even Brazilian he’s American it’s not half it’s Rafel under rapael lado Jr one of the greatest American BJJ practitioners of all time like she’s she’s a really good Grappler the thing with dakot is she’s actually really good everywhere she can wrestle she can strike she can grapple she’s got a good mentality she’s got cardio she’s got durability there’s just some Fighters that fall into like Joseph benovitz mode where they’ve got it all they’re just not the best dakot has got it all just she struggles when she hits that like top three to top five level of competition uh Vanessa’s not a top three to top five she’s 4-2 in the UFC and two of those wins are arguably flat robberies so she could easily be two and four in the UFC she’s 35 years old and she’s switched I think to two or three different camps in the last three fights two fights back against karolina she misses weight at 115 coming in at 117.5 her last time out she did make the weight uh but again one has to wonder is it hard to make the weight is is any part of her game improving all that much uh I’ve heard that she’s super coachable but she’s been getting three or four different coaches so what’s what coach is going to give her the game plan of you know stand there and strike or pull a guard or take her down like what her what will her game plan be I have no idea could she win this fight yeah just by keeping it close for no other reason than she’s done this before keep a fight close everybody in the world thinks she loses but the two of the three people sitting there are like [ __ ] dude I one time paid this chick a 100 bucks for a lap dance at the cler and if I get this decision the other way she might tell my wife and then all of a sudden she wins decisions so baring that that happens Paul I I think she loses here Emily doody’s the pick by decision I’ll take it by decision yeah I mean Demopolis has been very very durable I mean her only takedowns what she had one takedown against jinu FR and she had two against Maria Oliva who has like pretty bad takedown defense and J you fras 105 she’s tried against pretty much everybody and just got absolutely stuffed like at at the end of the day I think this fight comes down to like dakot putting up like 115 120 significant strikes over the course of 15 minutes and like demopoulos is topped out at like 70 60 or sorry 70 against JJ Aldrich seems pretty clear to me outside of like slipping on a banana peel that dakot probably wins this and likely by decision all right it’ll look it’ll look like the kolina Koval kavage fight right kolina lands 139 to Vanessa’s 68 Vanessa went 0 for four in takedowns Vanessa has a 133% takedown accuracy in the UFC 13 so she would have taken down karolina at least attempted 10 takedown attempts theoretically she could have gotten one maybe one and a half which would mean two if she taught 10 shooting four is not enough and that’s the problem is that she’ll half-heartedly try one and then when it doesn’t work she’s cool with getting punched so it’s like oh it didn’t work well let’s throw down it’s like I I appreciate that it’s fun to watch it’s Reckless at times but it’s not the winning formula so um and we’re on the same page I think there all right we’re just about out of time here but before we go Cody hit him with the PRP yeah we’re short for underdogs again but we’ve had a couple cars this season that mostly were favorites hitting and it’s just again it’s just whether you agree with the lines which I’m going to have to agree with a lot of them I’m leaning Lon Murphy but like that’s aough one truth be told we’re going to go with chaos Williams we’re going to go with themma grimbo Adrien janz Angela Hill Tom Nolan Umar C uh Melissa go Abus magov Ariana carosi dog number one H alang alang Hy however you want to pronounce it will be under dog number two and then we’re going to go with Emily dakot there’s certain spots where like if you didn’t love the lean I think dakot and Vanessa in either scenario goes to decision so you can hit an over there at a slightly worse price I’m sure uh Pier Rodriguez versus caral like I don’t know what the over under would be but it’s I it’s likely getting late into the third if Rodriguez flat gases and even in that scenario like maybe that one passed because one of them’s got a gas problem I don’t know I guess there’s other props that you could go through and discuss but we’ve been talking for nearly two hours about this card as it is so I won’t waste any more of your time um yeah unfortunately I just got to hope that most of the favorites do their job again and that those slight underdogs that we do have come through yeah dakot decision minus 175 seems better I mean that over under is jacked up over two and a half is minus 500 so um you know the the books are telling you how they think you know they’re they’re they’re respecting demopoulos is uh durability and and kind of looking at how this fight is so yeah Demopolis by Split Decision I mean a lot of these Apex cards I don’t like this cardex you might like that we’ve had some other cards recently that were just like oh I like a lot of bets on this card I mean Yan’s round three I’m going to be looking for the best number available I like Barbosa but obviously you’re on the other side there Hill round three Hill money line I have my interest caral Losi money line and um maybe alang Le like I don’t have too much I won’t I’m going to obviously bet it I’m a degenerate I bet these cards every single week but uh this card seems like a little bit of a you know hold your hes thing because there’s a lot of red flags on a lot of you end up on this type of card because there are some question marks surrounding you so I don’t yeah but similar to last weekend similar to last weekend and similar to pretty much every weekend moving forward because it’s where we’re at in the state of Combat Sports embedding lines but like there’s not that you’d want to get involved but you’ve got eight fights on a Friday night A1 combat for your riah Faber right then you’ve got an additional 15 fights on the Friday morning for ACA then there’s 10 fights Friday night for Bellator Fighting Championship there’s 10 more fights Friday night for bkfc uh you’d have to be such a degenerate to bet Centurion although I have bad idea don’t do it a lot of it’s cage boxing don’t do it uh L LFA LFA is also on Friday night before the UFC even occurs on the Saturday there’s some 75 fights happening for respectable organizations now I’m saying with Bellator randomly God I like patchy mies That’s My Boy Cedric duay don’t get a sliver in your foot this time bro oh all kolan how could you not love Archie kolan Mater Banu honestly don’t add him to Long parlays he’s a little untrustworthy but he’s got the goods you know the bkfc card gez what do you like on this bkfc card uh I have to do more research than I just start throwing names out but there’s somebody there’s there’s there’s the there’s the A1 the LFA there’s a road to UFC there’s a UAE Warriors and then you come on even tonight it’s a Wednesday night there’s a Fight Pass invit grappling matches like there’s so much that when you get to these tight ass UFC cards that it’s like Ah that’s a 5050 fight I don’t know if you got a good lean and you like it play it all day it’s an underdog that you like play it all day if it’s one of these I really don’t know but I’m chasing value just take a fight from another card that you like better and it used to be UFC was the only game in town that’s the only thing that’s on so that’s what you’re going to bet but now there’s tons of Friday action Saturday action last week I got you know after the UFC there was a fury FC on the Sunday like there’s there’s so many opportunities that uh if you are a fight fan do your research find good spots and if you just want to bet straight up tickets like Paul or other people or a straight plus money Underdog or uh I don’t know a prop player whatever that’s all fine too I’m saying don’t over Force the spot unless you’ve got like a concrete gut feeling about Tio GOI he’s in action he’s a big go I expect to get smacked up yeah yeah mean he taking on Arie Arie yeah I think he is I think he is they got guys 650 good they got guys like Cody law right who it’s like oh man this guy can wrestle and he’s at American top team and Matt Brown or Mike Brown loves him and super coachable and then when you see what’s going on it’s like this guy ain’t it man Archie I can’t really say that about him he comes from solid Collegiate wrestling pedigree very athletic guy his debut as a pro um goes a three and 0 as an underdog his debut is a Pros with LFA he goes two and0 with LFA belor asss him immediately easy now he’s not even wrestling dude he’s just going out there and striking knocking guys out just with his hands they throw him in there with Emanuel Sanchez who we all know former Bell tortell Challenger who’s fought all the best guys in the game as Savvy of a veteran as Savvy gets Hogan just neutralizes him he can out wrestle them he can out strike them he’s young in the game he’s very athletic um training at Colorado he’s on a 12 fight winning streak both of these last guys Emanuel Sanchez and Peter buis who’s actually got a long the tooth like European record but has foughten a lot of good guys both of those guys are better than Tau gouty and he’s beaten both of them so I have no reason to believe that Tau chin checks him but if Tau if he does anything you know him he plants his feet and he Chucks bombs so like that’s is his win Condition it’s in France I yeah smell that c you’re not wrong you’re absolutely not wrong about that I watch enough Bellator cards from like Regional promote like or like enough Regional to know that sometimes in like a a grappling heavy type of situation right that uh you get some squirly squirly results particularly like early on the undercard just saying well that’s that’s that’s why I like Cedric Doom because he’s a giant star in yeah but I’m thinking if he’s got a bonafide like I think that sliver in the foot was in France too wasn’t it let me just make sure that was wild that was like one of the most insane like what is happening right it wasn’t it wasn’t France it was maybe 1-1 and he was not doing anything to win the third round so he was going to lose regardless but yeah let me pull this sliver out of my foot and we can continue fighting they’re like fight’s off over like insane what a what a what a debacle that was insane but I’ll leave you I’ll leave you with this right state of the game same as people are like kids these days state of the game dog okay there’s three minutes left in the third round maybe two minutes left in the third round it’s one one his opponent ain’t doing [ __ ] he ain’t doing [ __ ] because he’s got the sliver in his foot and he wants to pull it out and he tries calling a timeout the ref’s like no you can’t so then he stares at his opponent and starts having a conversation with him and the opponent looks at the referee like this guy doesn’t want to fight so the ref says fight and then he says oh my foot then he calls it off right over a sliver well I remember there was a time where the great Uriah Faber fought Michael Thomas Brown for the WC title he breaks his left hand he breaks his right hand he fights three full rounds throwing nothing but elbows because he had two broken hands and he got a sliver in his foot Paul finish out dog Paris France pfl Main Event you’re supposed to be this great star great kickboxer like show some goddamn gumption man sliver in his Foot In fairness to him the idiot and I’m the idiot that’s going to bet him at like minus 450 again this weekend so take what you want In fairness to him though it’s like he W his opponent like backed off was just like yeah let him like take the sliver out of his foot and let’s continue fighting and then like the refs just like he felt bad he was just like and he had a sliver in his foot which I mean that’s kind of un I mean it was it was so bizarre it was so bizarre anyway yeah lots of MMA this week but that is it for us this week hope you enjoyed the show for producer mag and Cody saftic I’m Paul shauny saying goodbye and good luck [Music] [Applause]
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
8:06 Lerone Murphy vs Edson Barboza
15:07 Khaos Williams vs Carlston Harris
22:29 Themba Gorimbo vs Ramiz Brahimaj
31:42 Adrian Yanez vs Vincius Salvador
39:16 Angela Hill vs Luana Pinheiro
45:25 Tom Nolan vs Victor Martinez
52:59 Oumar Sy vs Tuco Tokkos
1:03:36 Melissa Gatto vs Tamires Vidal
1:10:28 Abus Magomedov vs Warlley Alves
1:19:35 Piera Rodriguez vs Ariane Carnelossi
1:27:38 Kleydson Rodrigues vs Alatengheili
1:35:49 Emily Ducote vs Vanessa Demopoulos
1:43:48 PRP
Paul Shaughnessy Twitter: https://twitter.com/PaulShag
Cody Saftic Twitter: https://twitter.com/CjSaftic
Great show guys, informative and entertaining.
Best UFC podcast on planet earth! Won over 2k round robin the picks from last week. Thank you guys as always!!!
Shout to everyone on the Dog or Pass Podcast. Thanks
Whoever complains about it going long is wildin’. I love hearing Cody break down fights even if it goes “long”
guess we'll sy
"Tuco Tokkos you might be familiar with him by uhhhhhh" lol
Canadian sandwich
Same ppl who complain about the length same ones who tail picks blindly lose and cry 😂
1:27:12 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Dw cody, the sys are brothers lol
The ADL has been notified of Cody's raucist behavior. Unfortunately he won't be available for next weeks podcast.
Bet mma show on YouTube ❤
Ariane Carnelossi lock of the week bruh
We need to stop betting against these old vets in this post-USADA era!
CDF’s wife is a bodybuilder we should have known he had the juice 💉💉💉
Won’t be surprised at all if Barboza looks like a million bucks as this is his first fight since the change.