PGA Championship | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data – DFS Golf & DraftKings

The TOUR heads to Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky for the PGA Championship. Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!

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SHOW INDEX
0:00 Intro
2:05 Course Preview
10:27 10K Range
22:13 9K Range
30:04 8K Range
35:11 7K Range
45:14 6K Range
48:11 5K Range
50:45 Custom Model
53:28 Outro
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what’s up guys Rick here with your preview for this week’s PGA Championship the second major championship of the year we are going to use data research information analytics to the best of our ability and figure out who the best players are for Valhalla this week and see if we can find some edges a couple of quick announcements don’t don’t jump forward just yet uh first and foremost I’ll be on site this week I’ll be at the PGA Championship the setup that we have for CBS Sports is right on the driving range hopefully we’re out of line of Target out there but we’ll be right on the driving range um come say hello if you see me grab me uh looking forward to meeting as many of you as possible second as a thank you for all the support throughout uh the years and this year specifically I’ve got more swag and merch boxes to give away here is what I’ve put together so far for the PGA Championship if you’re watching on YouTube it is a variety of different things that I’ve already purchased from Valhalla along with some other things that I’ve picked up in my travels this year and I’ll get some more uh as we go uh throughout the week when I get there on site and get to the to the merch tent all you have to do is be subscribed to my email newsletter it’s 100% free I send out information Trends and stats every single week um the link is in the description as long as you’re signed up and if you’re already signed up you’re already eligible so all good there and then last uh announcement there is a second chance one and done so if you’re one and done is off to a bad start like mine has been uh recently there is a second chance this is on Splash Sports we’ve been using them throughout the year they’re great $50 entry um it has flatter payout structure so 3500 to first and then a lot more people get paid this is legal regulated in 41 I think States now plus the District of Colombia so go sign up link is in the description let’s fill this thing up and we’ll run this from the PGA Championship uh through the BM W Championship show it should be a lot of fun all right let’s jump into Valhalla okay this is my website rickun good.com uh it’s a giant database for Fantasy Golf and and golf betting there’s uh models and there are tools and things that allow you to uh build lineups and and everything like that so uh it’s always a little bit difficult for the course key stats when you go to major championships that are not the Masters because they’re played at a variety of different courses often times uh they they are uh up updated or changed or renovated I mean we did play Valhalla in 2014 but I think there’s only four guys in the field who played this event in 20 no I guess it was probably more than that but it was that’s 10 years ago right I mean think about how few of the guys in the field are are are back in the field and then what changes have been made there’s been new t- boxes at there’s been there’s been work done to Valhalla so what I do is I take a variety of setups from the PGA of America I go and do the satellite imagery take the measurements compare it to other courses find statistical Trends get comps all that fun stuff and then I load it into this model and it pum and I pump out what I think is going to or what the model thinks is going to be important for this week and it’s no surprise when you get to a major especially PJ Championship especially a US Open something like that it is basically big boy American Golf you know American Golf uh hit it far have thick rough uh penalize golfers for missing the Fairway the PGA of America likes to do graduated rough the farther uh the farther offline you get the worse lie so all of that in mind here driving distance appears to be critically important uh highly correlated to succcess for this week approach play around the green play when you have around the green play it is a situation where you know not a lot of greens are going to be hit and you’re going to have to be able to get up and down par is likely to be a good score in a lot of situations I think this is a club head Speed play right so Club head speed allows you to do a couple of different things it allows you to hit the ball far which is an advantage against your peers it also allows you to extract from thick rough which is an advantage against your peers I think there are spots on this golf course where the fairways are so narrow that most golfers are going to be playing out of that first that first uh that primary rough that uh the rough I don’t know what I was trying to say there but the then uh I think the other Advantage is going to be uh Greens in regulation right can you find the green that is something that gets ramped up at major championships we hear Brooks kepa talk about it we hear Victor havin talk about it just removing the pin as a Target and hitting Greens in regulation the reason for that one it takes a lot of big numbers out of play gives you maybe a more birdie opportunities that you’re less likely to make but removes bogy and double from play often and then really the problem when you miss greens at Majors is it is usually much more difficult around the green than regular PGA Tour events if you take all of that information and look at the last 36 rounds and you do an adjusted fit Scotty Sheffer gets the best best adjusted fit for Valhalla he hits it far he keeps it in play hits a lot of greens and regulation he has a great short game and now the putter is starting to be uh figured out Walkin Neeman Xander Schley Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama round out the top five in terms of adjusted fit what I’m going to do now and I know this isn’t for everybody but what I’m going to do now is I’m going to walk you through a couple of examples on the satellite imagery and I’ve got this all mapped out um I’m working with a player this week as I did the last PGA Championship I’m going to show you some stuff that that we’re working through to give you an idea about this golf course I know this isn’t for everybody I know this is pretty nerdy but I know the people who like this really like this so if you want to fast forward to the to the cheat sheet that’s fine fine um but I think this might give you a couple of really good examples here okay now that we’ve gotten rid of all the cool kids the the Nerds can the Nerds can nerd out here so this is this is number one all right and and number one is uh a just a really good example of of of what the golf is going to be like here at Valhalla you’re talking about this is at 300 yards 36 yards wide if you hit it farther than that it pinches up even more and then you’re having to hit a strong shot into these greens let me show you a couple of other holes that I think are going to be important for this week um I’m going to take you over to number seven seven is this split Fairway you’re going to see a lot of different strategies here um do you hit it to the left side this island Fairway and bring this uh Creek Water garbage in the middle into play and then have to carry everything over on your second shot or do you hit it out to the right which is a little bit safer a little bit wider have to hit a longer shot in uh but not have to carry the water so if you look at this the dispersion pattern for a a a PGA Pro so every time I click this it’s about 50 50 shots um is with drivers about 60 yards wide so you’re talking about some pretty significant misses here and we could do the same thing the problem is the the right hand side is not really uh that much better right so you’re playing from a lot of rough here and you have to hit the longer second shot another example and I’ll show you number uh nine to show you what I mean by uh actually let me show you eight I think Eight’s the part three I’m still getting used to this myself but I think eight the part three it is okay so um the reason that a lot of these guys will just or what they should be doing is taking every Target to the middle of the green well here’s a a uh five iron a professional golfer five iron dispersion um to a to a Target that is the middle of the green yes you’re going to have a lot of long putts but you are often playing from the putting surface or around it very few in these deep bunkers these tricky bunkers the S the problem is if you then try to take on a pin so if we move the PIN to like a traditional spot just over this bunker here and you start using that as your target you might have a few more opportunities at birdie closer opportunities at birdie but you’re bringing in Bogey and double much more frequently by missing the green and being on the short side of things so that is why in my opinion the best uh the best thing to do at major championship golf is act like the pin does not exist and hit everything to the middle of the green as I click through just a couple of these holes just look so basically at you know 300 yards you are talking about 20 28 to 38 yards wide in most situations a lot of 28 to 30 yards wide that’s very small um now this is a good example here on number five so 28 yard wide Fairway 41 yard wide landing area if you bring in the rough and then you kind of get to this hay right I don’t know a better way to describe that so the the more you miss the worse your position is going to be um number six that’s you you cannot probably hit driver there that’s 38 yards wide um number seven that’s the hole we’ve already talked about Eight’s the par three we go to nine you’re talking about it pinching in at 25 yards I mean this is it’s just an incredibly tight Golf Course um it’s going to ask you to hit a lot of really solid shots a lot of really look at look at 10 10 just the just nowhere to go straight down the gullet 24 yards wide at 300 it’s just you’re going to have to just kind of hit some strong shots you’re going to have to just I don’t I don’t even know you’re just gonna have to hit one you’re just gonna have to be good you’re just gonna have to hit good shots so anyway I’ll stop there I could take you through all 18 and nerd out some more but um we’re looking for strong ball Strikers we’re looking for keeping it in play no big misses the bigger the miss your worse you’re going to be um yeah it’s going to be a lot of fun all right here’s the cheat she at rickun good.com and there are eight golfers over $10,000 I looked this up that is tied for the most golfers over $10,000 in one tournament since I’ve been tracking salaries over five years so this is a historically deep top of the board it’s led by Scotty sheffler 13,200 it goes down to Patrick klight at $10,000 even first off look at how beautiful this is you have two golfers who are coming in with back-to-back wins one of them Scotty sheffler coming in with four wins in his last five starts you have Brooks Kea coming in off a victory so three of the top five most expensive golfers on this slate are entering with a victory let’s talk numbers uh and before we do that I’m just going to zoom out here right so this is the last 36 rounds for everybody in this field I’m going to get rid of uh eight uh Senior Tour rounds Asian rounds I’m even going to get rid of corn fairy tour rounds uh and just show you who the best players in this field are now there are obviously uh ways that we need to compare these golfers between Liv and the European tour and the PGA Tour but Scotty shuffler is gaining 2.92 Strokes per round over the last 36 Wen Neeman and Sebastian Soderberg are the only other golfers over two strokes per round Soderberg doing the vast majority of his dirty work on the European tour so if we we flip this around and look at just the weighted Strokes gain so this looks at uh where you’re playing what the strength of field is a variety of other factors and starts ranking you based on how good you are compared to those peers you’ll see guys that get pretty significant boosts here Scotty Sheffer still number one Xander Schley flies up the board lud VI oberg wendam Clark and Hideki Matsuyama round out the top five there so because we’ve got guys playing across a bunch of different tours because this is a very deep field where guys are coming from from everywhere even from Club Pro status we’re going to have to use a little bit of uh math and logic and reason to compare those golfers Scotty Sheffer is deservingly the favorite I want to remind everyone that he has won four out of his last five starts and the one that he did not win he finished second even before that stretch he was piling up top 10 finishes left and right he has been by far the best te green player on the planet and now he’s gain Strokes putting in five straight I am under the impression uh because Bob her mentioned this over the weekend and I don’t think Bob herck is a is a hot take machine I think that he is a real journalist um that baby Sheffer has been born and that Scotty is going to be playing like normal I am not going to try to get into the heads or the minds of these guys around life moments I’m looking at the sheet and I see that Scotty shuffler has been by far the best player in the world uh with the way that Rory mroy has been closing that Gap and with the influx of Brooks Kea John ROM from Liv golf with the excitement around lud VI oberg what will Scotty’s ownership be because that seems to be a more relevant question as as opposed to like will you be playing Scotty also at 13,200 can you construct lineups that are uh viable with that huge price tag at the top because Valhalla is going to demand strong shots uh in the ball striking categories and and no one who’s been better than Scotty shuffler there in quite some time his short game is better than just about everybody’s and his putter is now adequate the exciting thing is what Roy mroy has been doing um now he’s discounted $112,000 and I’ll remind you that the pricing came out uh before he won the Wells Fargo Championship and what he did at the Wells Fargo was truly special he gained six Strokes off the te he added another fourth the putter he had another six on approach he’s dialed in right now uh his 2024 was was kind of started a little bit slow and then he played his way into Texas played well at Texas played well enough at the Masters list and it’s it’s kind of its own animal and then he gets back-to-back wins one a team event and won the Wells Fargo Championship last time we played at Valhalla he was your winner um if you go look up his his PGA championship history and I can pull that up for you they’re obviously all different right but uh Rory at majors has been Splendid and Rory at non-masters majors has kind of even been better and he’s gone t7 eth at the last two uh Maj at the last two PGA championships he’s putted well at both of those he’s he won at Valhalla that was here 2014 gained 16 Strokes to the field just was awesome gain 5.6 Strokes putting he was just absolutely vibing so I’ll be interested to see what the industry does with these two uh and I’ve got no problem just loading up on as much as possible of both John Rah offers a unique opportunity here I think that Rah will be the Forgotten Superstar we’ve already talked about two guys who are going to Garner a lot of looks in Scotty sheffler and Rory mroy you’re going to get the 15% % of people that play Xander because he’s likely to finish inside the top five even if he’s not likely to win and then you’re going to get a ton of looks towards Brooks Kea we’ll talk about Brooks in a second there’s just not enough clicks to go around there’s not enough salary to go around to get all of these guys and John ROM feels like the one who gets left behind what I love about my site Rick run good.com is that I have The Strokes gain data and the breakdowns for the PGA tour the DP World Tour and live golf these are the official numbers and what you’re seeing from Rah despite not having a victory on Liv is pretty spectacular uh he is just the same player that he was on the PGA tour he’s gaining four five or six Strokes off the tea in basically every single tournament the approach play struggled a little bit in Singapore it was not great in Adelaide but other than that um even going back to the Masters he’s gaining a stroke or two every single time he teas up he’s got one of the best short games it’s actually quite underappreciated and I think that he’s looking around hearing everything about Scotty about Rory about Brooks and he wants to throw his name into the ring uh he has not finished outside the top 10 on LIF I understand that they’re 54 player Fields most of those are top five finishes most of them he is probably just running out of holes if they played 72 holes I bet you John R would have about four wins by now so I’m really interested to see what the industry does with him you look at his major championship record um it’s it’s it’s awesome the T45 at the Masters you know he lost 3.6 Strokes putting but there’s a lot that goes with being the defending Champion there there’s a lot that goes with what that’s his first major championship that he played as a member of Liv his major record last year he had three top 10s including the win at the Masters it’s it’s just it’s just Splendid stuff and and major championships brings uh the cream to the to the top so we can’t play all these guys um Xander at 10,900 you know watching him crumble on Sunday and turn into a spectator and just witnessing Rory maoy demolish him is not great and and already kind of worries you when he’s he’s got this uh branding that he kind of folds Under Pressure I think there’s a really good chance he finishes inside the top 10 hard to think that he’s going to be able to finally break through the bottom of this range Klay has been in the midst of probably the worst stretch of golf that we’ve seen him play in quite some time I’ll pull up his numbers here for you but this is very uninspiring golf uh lost three Strokes ball striking at the Wells Fargo um if you look back to some of his other events from this year there there’s just a real decline in his ball striking um when we were looking at him at the beginning of 2023 remember when he was a um an equipment free agent and he was was just playing I forget what what equipment he was playing but he was playing whatever he wanted and he was ging 7even 8 n 10 Strokes ball striking he did that for the vast majority of 2023 and then all of a sudden here to start 2024 he hasn’t been able to get it going and not only has he has he not been able to get it going he hasn’t even been field average he hasn’t even been tour average it’s been pretty miserable and the putter hasn’t been able to save him the short game hasn’t been able to save him and it’s a lot of really kind of bad finishes with not a lot of end in sight so um not so optimistic there uh colore cow is starting to lay the blueprint of an elite major Champion again um Wells Fargo wasn’t great RBC Heritage was me at at best but um we’re getting now three straight uh measured starts in which he’s gained at least three Strokes putting he’s driving it well again that’s a really good sign and he’s giving us flashes of the ball striking stuff he’s he’s kind of in between like two different coaches right now I guess that’s not really the the best way to put it so he he leaves Rick cessing house who has has been his swing coach for his entire life he uh gets a couple of Concepts from Mark Blackburn and then from what I understand has gone back to Rick cesing house to basically apply those things that he’s learned right maybe he just likes the voice better likes the process better I still worry that it’s not passing the ey test for me I think he hits a couple of wipy shots I I think that it’s not as solid as we used to see from him on a regular basis but we’re we’re trending we’re definitely trending um if you’re new and you don’t know who lud VI oberg is I mean get get used to the name he’s an absolute Crusher he withdrew from oh boy what’s I guess he didn’t withdraw but he he did not play the Wells Fargo Championship I think he said he just wanted to get some some rest in um since he turned Pro he’s probably the third best player in the world that was about a year ago and he’s still getting you know he played one he’s played one major one major in his life finished runner up at the Masters earlier this year we’ll see what people do with him and then Brooks Kea I’ll pull up his stat profile because if you don’t watch him every single week you’re probably not um fully in touch with what he’s been doing so he struggled a lot with the putter uh at the end of 2023 and into into 2024 he’s made a switch he’s going to a Scotty I think it’s a 5.5 Phantom uh I believe is the the Mallet style of putter that he’s using now gains four strokes putting it in live golf single poor and wins that golf tournament so I know I just threw a lot at you and if you find any of this helpful hit the like button goes a long way for me but the way that I read this is it’s all the Scotty and Rory you can eat it is Rah hoping he is going to be a pivot it is Brooks to an extent I imagine he’s going to be quite popular and then um if you can get ludvig at a good deal you get him at a good deal it if you’re if you end up with no Xander no Klay no morawa I’m not upset the guy that would worry be the most about burning me if I didn’t have any of them would be morawa because I’m starting to see the breadcrumbs of his game rounding into shape now for those sneaky guys who skipped through the intro and did not see my announcements there is a second chance oneand done that starts this week runs the PG from the PG PGA Championship to the BMW Championship $50 entry 3500 to first if we can fill this thing go rock and roll it’s got a much flatter payout system it’s on Splash it’s fully regulated in like 41 States and the District of Columbia I listened to your feedback about the the price point and the payout structure worked with those guys and got it in there so um go check it out Link in the link is in the description everything you ever need is always is always in the description now the 9k range okay there is a lot here so it’s cam Smith down to Cameron young let’s start boy let’s start with the guys that I have concerns with uh Wills aloris being one what he did at the Wells Fargo Championship at qu Hollow was just not good and we are starting to see a lot more red than we’re seeing green uh I was hopeful that he was going to be able to use his Elite ball striking to separate himself at Quil Hollow he didn’t do that in fact he got worse uh basically every day he third and fourth round the weekend was brutal he lost 7.8 Strokes uh on Sunday alone when you combine that with now the Putter’s gone right you I think it’s safe to say we we got the the bump from the long putter to start 2024 and he’s lost the spark not only has he lost the spark he’s lost the feeli all of it is gone he’s lost like 15 Strokes putting in his last five measured events it’s it’s horrendous stuff combine that with the uh decline in ball striking and the decline in t to Green play has me I believe rightfully concerned I would normally just fire up uh will zorus at major championships his records his record’s phenomenal but I I think it’s fair to be concerned because even basically every major he’s ever played in his life he’s been in much better form leading into it and we’re not seeing that right now so that’s a pretty big concern for me Victor hland is trying to bait us back in and I’m quick to quick to get back into that game but he’s trying to uh t24 at Quail Hollow was not good Thursday was pretty bad Friday was pretty bad what he gave us on Sunday was the stuff you like to see he gained uh 3.9 Strokes on approach I believe that’s the fourth best approach round of his entire career did he find something did it click I think that’s possible the overriding concern Still Remains the uh complete regression back to the around the green golfer that he was in 2022 that’s that’s the concern I’m worried that we get a very similar stat line at Valhalla where he gains five Strokes ball striking loses three in the short game and finishes yeah like t18 something like that that would be my concern we’re not seeing the stat profile that we got in 2023 which unlocked some just you know hair on fire golf from Victor so I think Victor might be closer than than Z Taurus is at the moment but both of those guys still giving me enough concern Justin Thomas is going to head back to Louisville and Justin Thomas you know we we saw him get pretty emotional a couple weeks ago you know they honored him in town and I’m looking at this stat profile and thinking it’s pretty good right and we talked about it before the wells farco Championship um the 1.8 Strokes that he lost on approach on on Friday really set him back the the rest of his stat profile is completely each day is completely in line with what what you would expect from Justin Thomas uh just an elite short game back to being a great ball Striker the putter okay which is fine right 2.6 to the positive at RBC Heritage and a zero at Quail Hollow I’ll I’ll take both of those outcomes so we’re getting warmer here working our way up uh guys that give us concern give us pause and then guys that are giving us a little bit a little bit of excitement how about guys that are giving us a lot of excitement okay I think I can I think I can handle that um that that list would be Walkin Neeman Bryson D shano maxom th those guys are giving me pretty significant excitement levels let’s start with waen Neeman if you go back to the power rankings and look at the raw Strokes gained for everybody in the world wae neeman’s gaining 2.25 Strokes per round he’s been one of the best players in the world this year that’s across Liv and that is across um the Asian tour he’s played a couple events over there I’ll pull up his stat profile so that you can see and even in Singapore which is the last event that he played on Liv loses two and a half Strokes putting but he gains eight eight on approach I believe that was number one in the field and it’s his best since Liv golf Mya COA that was an event that he won so he is still just vibing right now um he didn’t even have his best stuff in Adelaide and finished T3 there was pretty darn good at the Masters finishing t22 even though he kind of let Friday’s rounds get away from him if you remember Friday was very difficult it was um very nasty very windy it kind of ate up a lot of different guys so I’m not I’m not super concerned about that so excited about Neeman I was very excited about Bryson before the Masters and uh yeah that was that was great he made me he made me look very very smart there the thing I like about Bryson is I think uh the PGA Championship and the US Open are probably going to be better spots for him than Augusta National is right we we know the problems that that Augusta National can cause for Bryson for for very wild misses for for left misses for trying you know lack of creativity all that stuff this major championship Valhalla might look a lot like uh wingedfoot you know when I was showing you those those 27 yard wide Fairways with thick rough and graduated rough if everyone is missing the Fairway that gives a big boost to Club head speed Bryson has that Bryson can extract himself from basically any position we’ve got to get the putter working a little bit better than it did in Adelaide and a little bit better than it did in Singapore but I think this is a really good spot for Bryson and then Max H has quietly just quietly started to play some really good golf the T3 at the Masters the T8 at Wells Fargo he’s going to he keep keeps getting better at Majors right he hasn’t had a great major champion ship record in his career and but the thing is his best two major championship results T10 and T3 are his two most recent eight and a half Strokes ball striking at the open last year six and a half at at the Masters this year we’re we’re this is what a natural growth and progression looks like and maxom has done nothing but grow and just constantly get better and and he’s he’s playing well leading into this when a lot of his peers can’t can’t really say that we started this section with some concerns we’ll end it with some concerns that would be cam Smith um he is on brand he is wholly reliant on the short game you saw the mapping of this golf course it is going I I believe it is going to eat cam Smith alive um he’s incredibly talented and if he gains 15 Strokes in the short game maybe it goes well for him but I I would find that that pretty difficult to believe um and he’s the most expensive in this 9k range I think there’s a lot of other ways to to spend your money here here’s the 8K range and there’s one name that jumps out to me immediately here and it’s Terrell Hatton he’s $8,200 if you sort this entire range last 36 rounds Strokes gain total hattens at 1.48 Strokes per round it’s the best of anybody in this range the other thing to consider is if you go to the trends tool and you just sort this so last 36 rounds you take how everyone is playing uh in that 36 and compare it to their 100 round Baseline then you kind of put it all together and find out the number in which a golfer is trending right now that’s how this tool Works um Terell haton is the is the best player the mo the best trending player I call it Strokes gain Trend in that 8K range and he’s one of the best uh in the field he’s at 1.57 on that Trend Strokes gained metric and what I like about his game I’ll pull up his stat profile here what I like about his game at major championships is how well-rounded he is he’s longer than you think he’s like 30th in this field maybe 20th in his field in driving distance he can be a really good second shot player like he was in Singapore and usually uh he gains both around the green and with the putter so I I like that if you look at um like let’s look at some of his major championship record I don’t know it off the top of my head but he obviously had a good uh a good Masters so he finished me get this clicked here here there we go um finished T9 at the Masters T20 at the open t27 at the US Open t-15 at the PGA Championship so right there his last four major championships are all 27th or better then 34th at the Masters 11th at the open he hasn’t missed a cut at a major since the 2021 open and then since the 2022 PGA Championship the one that was held at Southern Hills every single finish but one is 35 34th or better he’s a lowkey pretty darn good major championship player and he’s playing better now than he probably was leading into any of those other events so he’s $8,200 which is pretty cheap uh and just stands out to me like crazy Jordan spe will have you ripping your hair out this week not only because that’s what he does on a weekly basis but he’s actually like he picks up five Strokes off the te last week the Wells Fargo Championship he led the field guess what he did after that um gave back five Strokes on approach so here’s the problem and I think this actually does make sense in the realm of a weird Jordan Speed thing he’s got this wrist injury right and this wrist injury is it like pops this ligament pops in and pops out I’m not a doctor and he’d never knows when it’s coming okay so he’s kind of always playing in fear of of when that’s coming coming and when it’s going to hurt when it’s going to not so it kind of makes sense that shots in which he has to interact with the ground he is very bad at right now and shots that he does not have to interact with the ground when a ball sits on a te he’s still pretty good at right you know hitting driver don’t touch the ground he’s crushing it with the driver he’s gain Strokes in in seven straight and some of them in massive ways yet in six of his last seven he has Hemorrhage Strokes on approach cuz he has to interact with the turf that is my take on this that is you know reading between the lines reading the tea leaves and looking at his stat sheet I don’t know how that’s going to be any different this week I think he could drive it well maybe put up a little short game magic but it’s it’s not going to be much of an investment for me when it comes to Jordan spe I’ve been a big fan of Tommy Fleetwood this year and I don’t think that that needs to stop anytime soon look at his well-rounded game over here on the left he’s better than than tour average over the last 100 rounds in all four major categories he usually does do a good job of gaining throughout the bag he’s putting together a lot of really good finishes since the end of 2023 just nothing to really sway me from Tommy Fleetwood is he finally going to break out and win probably not is HE capable of finishing inside the top five absolutely he is the rest of the AK range I think is just worth a Sprinkle you know I love the talent of Sam Burns but we haven’t seen enough good good golf out of him recently I think Patrick Reed at major championships has a really underrated record and I think he’s playing in something like his 40th consecutive major championship or something like that it’s just an incredible streak and then Dustin Johnson has given us flashes of Brilliance at times but um hasn’t been able to follow it up with anything uh consistent you know over over multiple starts and um you know it’s just kind of all over the place it’s it’s it would be one thing if he was always losing on approach or always losing with the putter it’s it’s not there’s just kind of different things plaguing him uh each and every week he won early in the year at at in Las Vegas but since that it’s uh kind of all over the yard so just sprinkling these guys in especially if they do go under owned is is probably the way that I’m going to be approaching the the rest of that 8K range the 7K range has a lot of value and speaking of value um I’m going to try to get you guys a little bit of value here so I I remember I gave you a little hint last week about um the new bonus that was coming on Underdog yeah that that’s that’s out now so now the deposit matches is up to 250 bucks it used to be just 100 so 2.5x I hope you guys waited the extra day for me uh the link is in the description you can go get that the code is Rick but you can click through it and uh rock it that way as well they already have PGA Championship stuff up and I know they’re going to be doing a ton of different um props and Rivals and everything for this week I’m going to give you one good thing I’m GNA give you two a couple good things I’m G give you one bad thing so I’m always real with you guys uh I I love Underdog we have a really good partnership they’ve done great things you should be avoiding these so they have put up this week um round four finishing position which I I love that I want you know used to be used to just be round by rounds I love that this is basically a a per tournament thing however these are really bad numbers okay so this is Will zat Taurus 4.75x to finish better than 5 .5 so the way that I’m reading that is for him to finish inside the top five right Fifth Fifth Place or better at 4.75x well um zor’s betting odds to finish inside the top five are let’s see uh 10 to one okay and that does not even mention the fact that that you have to also pick a second a second leg of this so um Underdog rarely misses I think they’re really they this is a miss you should you should avoid these now the things that you shouldn’t avoid because there are really good options and I know there’s going to be a lot more this week there are two that are jarring to me so they have Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods props available right now and you’ll notice like Jordan speed at 70 Strokes for round one and Patrick Reeds at 70.5 Bryson 69 right so we’re all this like you know Tom Kim 70.5 we’re all in this kind of like 69 to 70 range so what do you think Phil and tiger are 74 75 um Michael block is 74 74 and a half what are what are Phil and tiger 71.5 tiger is 71.5 Phil where is Phil did I did I pass over him 71.5 now this this I can get behind hire on both of these guys I I I don’t even know I mean they are being priced as if they are really competitive and I know tiger made the cut of the Masters I was there that is completely different than what we are getting right now um Phil Phil has been mildly competitive I’m not even sure that’s the way to put it on live he is just he is going to be playing out of the thickest rough constantly his short game is no longer magic and this golf course is going to be incredibly long for him tiger is going to like this place they’re going from Augusta naal where they both have massive amounts of experience and knowledge and no rough to a place that is going to just gobble them up in my opinion so higher on both of these 71 and a half for round one that is a what is that that is a 2. 76 x payout and then of course you could you know put other stuff on with that but this is where I would go and I would be trying to pick on guys like Patrick Klay higher than 69 and a half and if you do like the lower side of things there are some good options right uh John ROM lower than 69 or John ROM higher than four and a half birdies I think there’ll be some birdies out there for these guys so you can kind of mix this up anywh you want um I’ll I’ll tweet out stats on on these guys I’ll include some in my newsletter things like that but don’t don’t play the finishing positions unless unless these numbers get a lot better okay um that’s not going to be good for anybody uh the code is Rick the link is in the description go check it out okay uh back to the 7K range so a lot here uh SEIU Kim has been basically the best ball striker on Earth not named uh Scotty sheffler Rory mroy or that might be it um look at these numbers plus 7.6 last week plus 6.6 the week before he has not lost Strokes ball striking since the RSM classic that was in 2023 so he hasn’t done it this year the putter is a problem I understand that even he gets hot every now and again 4.7 at the Players Championship he finished T6 there even with these miserable putting weeks he has three straight top 20s and uh F what is that five top 20s in his last six and the one that was in a top 20 was a T30 at the Masters so yeah I I guess we’re just going to continue to play SEIU I will look at Taylor guch here so boy if if gu has any hutzpah he better play well this week right after all the conversation around there should be Asis for Majors that or or for events and wins that we’re not in or I’m not in or whatever and then to get the special invite if he has any coones he better play well this week and I think it’s possible um historically he’s usually a pretty good driver of the ball his approach metrics are very good right now he’s gting multiple Strokes on approaching four out of his last five the short game been fantastic he’s been a great putter his major championship record is not good uh missed the cut in each of his last two majors which was was the open last year at Royal Liverpool and then the PGA Championship at Oak Hill last year he only has one top 20 at a major and it was the 2020 uh sorry he’s got a 20th at Southern Hills and a 14th at the 2022 Masters those are his best two finishes it he needs to play well he absolutely needs to play well Alex noren is $7,200 uh if you’ve been following along you know that I’m a big believer in norin and I think it it it really play his game really plays well at major championships because Parr is often a good score he was not good on Friday last week outside of that he was pretty darn good he gained four strokes to the field in round number one he gained three in round three lost a little bit on Sunday not a big deal still finished T2 24 um he is like second in Bogi avoidance on the PGA tour I think it’s Scotty sheffler Alex noren Xander schle something like that he just never makes any bogeys it’s just very very rare and when you can do that and he only has a one-way Miss he just like never misses left off the te it is a very consistent sound game and it’s it’s a really good stat profile that he’s putting together I’m not even sure the last time he played a major because he didn’t play the Masters this year uh let’s see here load this up okay played the open last year uh wow he was pretty bad last year so t23 at the open missed the cut at like six consecutive Majors before that but look at all these bad stat lines and look at the stat line that he’s dealing with right now just green all over the yard as opposed to all this ball striking misery honorable mention here to Steph jger he deserves it but we’re going to focus on sep straa which is not a sentence that I usually say or say often but it is welld deserved T8 at Quail Hollow last week so now he has and I’m I’m not even going to count the t11 at the Zer classic because that’s a team event so he has back-to-back top eight finishes he has three straight top 16s that far farthest one back was the Masters he finished t16 he’s got another t16 at the Players he is so good off the T generally because he can keep the ball in play not because he’s a long hitter but he is like I love this right um 15th in distance from edge of Fairway second in driving accuracy that will be his superpower this week if he can play out of the Fairway if he can separate himself by being the guy that hits I don’t even know f 10 more Fairways over four days than everybody else or than the field average that is his path because the rest of his game has been very very sound sep stro is only $7500 he would certainly be a good way to build your lineups and then um you know got to show you Dean berter here so Burmy you know we we were a week early on on burer win so we were just betting and betting and betting him actually probably not that all we probably we probably bet him the two weeks prior to the victory because he was trending in such a good way he had two really good uh wins on the European tour at the end of 2023 and then he kept it going into 2024 this is about as well-rounded and Powerful as you can get he’s a big strong guy he can move the ball out of the rough you look at his last 100 rounds look at how bad as putting is over the last 100 look at how good as putting is over his last 20 or so right he has really started to figure it out I think he is a low-key pretty good sleeper I’m actually going to Star him here so I don’t forget about him um but bur’s bur’s probably one of the better options in the in the 7K range okay $6,000 range there are some um good not great options here uh tigers in in you know we I’ll just show you tiger profile just CU I’m you know like contractually obligated for all the money that he’s poured into golf to to show you Tiger’s profile the the 60th at the Masters in which he um you know I mean the weekend this is the problem right even if he gets to the weekend it’s probably going to be pretty bad because the body starts to starts to break down and this is at a golf course that um you know he knows better than anybody and and sets up so well for him but it’s not it’s not good he loses Strokes on approach routinely um the putter is not good enough there there’s there’s nothing to statically in Tiger’s game that uh gets me even even the the least bit excited but I hope he goes up and wins uh Adrian I was very excited about Moran at the Masters and he burned me on that okay and if you look at basically every other start except for the Masters he’s been great and I I’m I’m sick enough to want to be interested in this again um I mean that is one outlier every other week he’s pretty good off the te he’s great on approach the short game is good enough except the Masters maybe it’s first time at Augustin ashal and just kind of destroyed him um kyama I think is interesting bunch of top 30 finishes and finished fourth here last year I think that’s noteworthy Denny McCarthy has has uh shown how how uh High upside he’s got T6 Wells Fargo he played the Texas open and battled it with OE interesting not like sprinting to to access all of these guys um Billy H horel really ugly uh Wells Fargo Championship and he missed the cut the zerk I don’t care about that but just won three starts too in punana his game has rounded into form pretty significantly oh and then Taylor pendri this is actually Taylor pend might actually be uh one of the most Mis mispriced golfers or one of the guys that offers the most value so it would have been easy for him to win and then just kind of roll over a little bit right you get that first PGA Tour win take a sigh of of relief goes out and gains another three and a half Strokes off the tea at the Wells Fargo Championship so now he now he’s gone 11th 11th win and 10th if you look at his stat profile it’s very different than you know complete opposite of of someone like sep straka the path for pendrith is going to be Club head speed it’s going to be distance it’s going to be if you spray it be able to extract yourself so you know if if pendrith is the guy and if everyone’s missing Fairways and pendrith is the long guy who is extracting his golf ball and and still piling up birdies and playing well as he has in the last couple of weeks that’s his path to success um there’s a couple ways to get there they’re pretty narrow but there are there are paths for some of these guys and pend that’s $6,000 flat is pretty crazy the 5K range is here uh thanks to we get um what’s his name Scotty Sheffer at the top 13,200 and then that means we’re getting guys here in in in the 5K range and I do think there are some really good options here right so we’ve got um we we if you’ve been following on this channel you’ve been tracking Nick Dunlap and McKenzie Hughes I think both those guys are trending in the right direction but if you’ve been if you’ve been following along you already you already know that um Sebastian Soderberg so he is now let’s pull up his profile uh if you saw why he was popping you know on all those like oh last you know 36 rounds or whatever it’s because of this it’s because he’s crushing the European tour so his last three starts on the DP World Tour are all podiums T2 runnerup and T3 in India Australia and China um he has got two more top 10 in his last what’s that seven starts so that’s five total in his last seven you look at his Strokes gain numbers it’s it’s nine or more basically every single week he plays so he’s crushing the European tour will that be able to translate I don’t know but you’re getting a guy who’s pretty darn confident speak speaking of confidence Adrien egi just won in China so if you’re going to give Soderberg a little bit of a boost you got to give otegi the Boost he won in China he finished fourth in Kenya and he’s played um didn’t he play I thought he played somewhere else that was not the European tour he did not my bad on that Tim weiding has gone back-to-back wins on the corn fairy tour so he won the Sun Coast and he won the veritex bank he’s having an unbelievable year again will that translate I don’t know the answer to that question but these are flyers and I think they are worth it and then you start to get down into um you get into some of the corebridge financial guys you’re getting into the um PGA Pros down here I love the skill set of Vincent Norman but that that’s he’s not playing very well Michael block is in the field that’s not very interesting uh none of these guys are Wyatt Worthington is a flat 5,000 shot at 59 a couple weeks ago um probably should have ran away with the PGA club pro but was sick the last couple of days he ended up getting in anyway um he’ll be ready to go interesting okay let’s run a model so we’ve got a lot going on here because as I’ve said a thousand times there are golfers from a bunch of different tours bunch of different places so here’s what we’re going to do we are going to put a baseline of uh 25 weights 20 weights on stroke weighted Strokes gain total okay and that is just us leveling the playing field it is you know knocking down uh Steve shrier knocking down Sebastian Soderberg bringing up Xander Schley stuff stuff like that right okay uh but then what we’re going to do is we are going to go with um driving distance for 20 driving accuracy for 10 we are going to do greens in regulation for 25 we are going to do um I could do SC SC scrambling would be interesting but let’s just do strokes gain to approach uh Strokes gain round the green last 36 for 15 and then we’ve got 10 left we could do bogey avoidance I think would be interesting um we could also do how about this we could all we could do strokes gained I think I have strokes gained majors in here don’t I strok gain Majors do I not have that I thought I had that at one point Maybe not maybe I’ll have to get that back um what I will do is put the final 10 on Strokes gained hard courses and here we go wow okay my number one golfer Scotty shef they no surprise there’s probably like almost zero ways I could put the 100 weights in and not get Scotty to be my number one golfer Windam Clark is number two which is very interesting John ROM is three Heek is four xand is five JT is six that’s sick ludvig is seven Tony fow is eight Alex norin is nine Rory mroy is 10 yeah Rory gets a knock on driving accuracy a knock on green and regulation a knock around the green not not brilliant stuff but spe is 11 Neeman is 12 Hatton is 13 wow wow okay I’m going to save this so we’re going to call this Monday p J championship and we’ll uh revisit that on the live chat which is going to be Tuesday 8:00 p.m. eastern time probably from either a hotel room in Louisville or the media center at Valhalla we’ll see we’ll see how it goes I owe you guys a debt of gratitude without without your support I would have no chance of going to these events and doing this for a living so so just absolute hat tip golf clap to all of you guys uh much appreciated if you could do me a favor hit the like button go Che check out rickun good.com check out the links in the description it’s all good stuff it wouldn’t if it I wouldn’t tell you to uh to check it out if it wasn’t um let’s have a great week