Jay (@croucherJD) and Drew (@whale_capper) are joined by Chris Miles (@chrismilestv) of NBA TV to analyze the Knicks-Pacers and Timberwolves-Nuggets series tied 2-2 entering Game 5’s on Tuesday. They begin with the short-handed Knicks as short home favorites vs. the Pacers before diving into the Timberwolves as two-possession underdogs in Denver. The trio also debate who can emerge from the Western Conference and if they’ll ultimately win the NBA Finals. Jay and Drew wrap up with Stanley Cup Playoff thoughts, including a live-betting strategy to betting the Stars and advantageous ways to bet Florida Panthers to win the Conn Smythe Award.
Chapters:
(1:00) – Pacers vs Knicks
(11:15) – Timberwolves vs Nuggets
(27:30) – Conference and NBA Finals Champion
(37:00) – Pricing the Stars + Jake Oettinger, Aleksander Barkov, and Matthew Tkachuk for Conn Smyth
» Subscribe to NBC Sports: https://www.youtube.com/nbcsports
» Watch Live Sports on NBCSports.com: http://www.nbcsports.com/live
NBC Sports Group serves sports fans 24/7 with premier live events, insightful studio shows, and compelling original programming. NBC Sports is an established leader in the sports media landscape with an unparalleled collection of sports properties that include the Olympics, NFL, Premier League, NASCAR, PGA TOUR, the Kentucky Derby, Tour de France, French Open, IndyCar and many more. Subscribe to our channel for the latest sporting news and highlights!
Visit NBC Sports: https://www.nbcsports.com
Find Premier League on NBC Sports: https://www.nbcsports.com/soccer/premier-league
Find NASCAR on NBC Sports: https://www.nbcsports.com/motors/nascar
Find Sunday Night Football on NBC Sports: https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/sunday-night-football
Find NBC Sports on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NBCSports
Follow NBC Sports on Twitter: https://twitter.com/nbcsports
Follow NBC Sports on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/nbcsports/
Pacers-Knicks, Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 5 + Conn Smythe bets | Bet the Edge (5/14/24) | NBC Sports
https://www.youtube.com/nbcsports
all right welcome to bet the edge I’m Jay Croucher here with Drew dini here today as well with Chris Miles NBA TV thanks very much for joining Chris uh we’re going to talk plenty of NBA we’ll close out with some Stanley Cup playoffs at the end but Chris how are you mate how you enjoying the playoffs I’m doing great I mean as you can see by my sweater I agree with your jersey and your background I just wish ogn and Obi was healthy that’s that’s what I wish for the Nicks yeah uh I don’t feel as great about the Knicks as I did uh three days ago about our Nicks uh I grew up a Nick fan so I’m going to claim them as my own as well Chris I didn’t grow up with Patrick Ying or Alan Houston or Latrell spre well I grew up with Stefon Marbury uh Eddie Curry Channing fry um David Lee Off the Bench and the Ronaldo Borman and Marty Collins picks they’re not quite the glory era but uh this is definitely the most fun Nicks team uh that I’ve been following um since yeah 06 basically what uh what do you think of their chances of uh of winning the series against the Pacers now that they are underdogs to win the series despite having home caught in five and seven if I’m being any chance the Knicks had to win the series went out the door when ogan and Obi came up Lan I remember the first the first game of the series and people were like oh you know what do the Knicks need to do I’m like oh we’re going to be straight because yeah Jaylen Brunson is carrying this heavy scoring load but I think ogan Obi is capable of it that’s what I kept telling people like when Dante D vinzo went off in game three and the Pacers won I thought oh man that was Pro that’s not a good look and I think as a series progresses I just feel like the Nicks are in a tough spot you’re down essentially a starting front court right Mitchell Robinson Julius Randall and ogan Obi and in people forget that trade deadline deal that brought in bogdanovich and you go and their best bench scorer or their best guy they can trust to score when Jaylen Brunson is struggling a bit so I just think that’s losing too much against that Pacers team that’s essentially at full strength okay so if you’re uh if tibs calls you up and he says he hey man nothing we tried in game four worked uh we gota we gotta you know tweak something here give ourselves a chance to get back in this one is there a relatively straightforward adjustment that you think the Knicks can make that could tilt the balance at least in game five if not for the rest of the series and that’s kind of the problem when I see when I hear you ask that question I think take a page out of the Nuggets book right don’t let Jaylen Brunson initiate the offense it’s taking too much out of him um TJ McConnell and Nesmith on them but then I go wait wait wait that doesn’t work the Knicks kind of halfway tried that and it was a disaster because they are just lacking in depth that much like Josh Hart or Duce McBride or Dante de fenzo when they have to handle the ball too much it becomes a disaster I remember there was that 8C violation on Jericho Sims it was like oh boy this is this is this is it right now so I think the Pacers have something going here where they understand like okay jayen Brunson is gonna have the ball we’re gonna make him work and the Knicks just start struggling with that are you surprised Chris that it’s been precious who has been starting in place of OG because to me like there is just such little spacing when it’s precious out there with hartenstein and with Josh Hart with the ball in brunson’s hands obviously Dante gives you a ton of spacing but is just one guy I just I would have thought that it makes more sense if you start Duce McBride and just have a little be a little bit smaller uh and just have a little bit more shooting on the floor well so what I would say to you is uh tibs knows this right and if you look at teams that have won in the playoffs and you go back years it’s like this every year they’re 45 and 12 teams that win the rebounding battle and if you remember what because it feels like it was so long ago right that the Knicks were crashing the offensive glass and dominating the boards just EAS like winning games that’s really been the key to this iteration of the Knicks and so I think by having precious out there he’s thinking okay more offensive rebounds securing defensive rebounds getting stops and trying to get more opportunities for these guys to get more shots up that’s tb’s thought process I just think Mitchell Robinson is so much better at that uh and losing him was just huge and OG also highly athletic I think people are seeing it so much more now here in New York so when you take those two guys off the floor and you put precious out there yes he’s trying to do the same thing but not at the same level yeah I think one of the key takeaways I had from game four I mean the Pacers I thought came out with sort of the ideal game plan of we’re just going to run early and like just you know like whatever uh to whatever degree we can get these guys to just not compete today we’re g to bring it out of them and we’re going to do it early right and I feel like the kind of the obvious counter at least if I’m expecting like what what to what are the Knicks going to look like I don’t expect that to come out and try to match speed or track make make this track me at all it feels like game five is going to be more like a Royal Rumble like a little bit more of just like we’re going to get as physical as possible um I feel like they got the you know kind of the wrong end of the whistle in Indianapolis after getting the right end of the whistle in New York um and I think this game could be pretty ugly like honestly and I think Nicks like Nick’s winning game five Nicks extending the series um you know to a game seven or you know potentially even doing the impossible and winning in six I think would come down to just winning ugly and um that doesn’t really comport with the total that’s like ballooning up to about 216 and a half and um there’s two 17s out there I don’t get it I think this is probably going to be one of the um you know kind of least I don’t know not an aesthetic game that’s not gonna be this is not gonna be the beautiful game I don’t think um and I don’t know is is am I on the right track here with the way that the Knicks are going to try to um you know just upset some of the r that the Pacers seem to have going by making it physical yes so that’s a great point that you make um I thought in the first quarter I think it was game four when it was at the end of the buzzer and Duce McBride’s on the fast break and he goes up and he gets clobbered and the ball like goes flying off the top of the backboard it was like nothing called him like I know it’s a 30-point game right now uh but man that’s just a a clear foul I think once that happened you kind of said okay this is what it is today I think for theck they had that energy like he said uh in games one and two where people were saying oh the fight is fixed for the Knicks I don’t know they have the Personnel for that either right because when I think of uh Tyrese halberton he’s a tough guy TJ McConnell also tough I think even muddying up the game in that way favors the Pacers because they are so healthy right now that even when I hear that uh I think of McConnell as being the the pure guy for that in this particular series and Miles turno what are you gonna do there you gonna turn him up another level like I don’t know if that’ll work uh in that way but I think yeah I mean we could call any of the moving screens on Miles Turner anytime anytime they want to call him go for it um that was sort of what stood out rewatching game four I thought but you know there was a non-compete anyway for the Knicks so I don’t know last one for you on this series Chris what do you think of Jen brunson’s Health at the moment because the his kind of uh injury I guess chronology in game two was really strange where he hurts the foot to an extent where he has to miss the entire second quarter which means that it was something was going on with his foot and then he comes back in plays I believe the entire second half and just looks like Jaylen Brunson he looked completely fine hasn’t quite looked at the same level uh in games three and game four but it’s not like he’s limping out there necessarily um he’s still largely looks like himself do you think that we’re going to get you know the Jaylen Brunson that was putting up 40 for um consistently in the playoffs or do you think he is a bit diminished at the moment yeah that’s a great question in the sense that we’ve seen this before and that’s a sample size we have to go with right if you talk to any players that it’s like oh their foot or their ankle that game the adrenaline’s enough to carry you through that when you play at the same level um and then it’s like the week after or however long it takes for the injury to heal that it typically bothers them more and when you watch Jaylen Brunson right now it seems like that’s case he still has the shiftiness he’s still taking the same shots when you watch him there just seems to be this hesitation at the end of plays and you know the shots aren’t going in the same way maybe the balance is a little bit off so I agree with you he hasn’t been the same uh since and I don’t know if he’s G to get back to that efficient uh return but it’s also like one of those things where I go yeah but not having Mitchell Robinson grab rebounds and not having ogan and Obi take some of that pressure off I mean you remember in the game where he hurt his foot OG was going crazy you’re like oh okay he’s got this this is going to be the OG game this is where the Knicks are going to be right now so you take him off the court and you like yeah they are just hounding Brunson so yes I think it’s the injury but I also think it’s the way that the Pacers have adjusted defensively on yep no I I agree with all that and at some point like just the toll that he is taking throughout the Philadelphia series throughout this series the fact that there such a lack of secondary creation like it would make sense that he would wear down in the manner he has though again it’s a double-edged sword because if they didn’t ride him the way that they did then they probably lose to the Sixers um in the first round uh so whatever happens from here um it’s been a heroic postseason from Jaylen Bronson and I’m a little bit more bullish than you Chris on the Knicks I think they have another gear and an effort level they can get to in game five think they’ll get a bit of a friendlier whistle Aaron n Smith is fouling Jaylen Brunson on every play like if they just call some of those a easier I think for the Knicks and who knows maybe we see OG back in game seven even if it’s in a diminished State um let’s jump to nuggets Timberwolves which uh has been the wildest series of the second round perhaps the Nuggets obviously go down 20 their price to win the series drifts out to plus 520 now they’re minus 185 favorites again uh after uh continuing the trend of the road team winning every game in this series do you think Chris that the Nuggets solved the Timberwolves in games three and games four or do you think this is just it’s just two really good teams uh and it just happen to go slightly in the Nuggets favor and this is going to be a close Series going forward oh no I absolutely think they they solve them in this sense right like I know everyone uses chess analogies but when I watch the Denver Nuggets in the way that they changeed their strategy and adjustments it reminded me of when you play chess with someone and they just like Checkmate you in like six moves or seven moves and you go how did that happen and then you defend your king properly and the game gets longer and you beat them and then you play them again and you just absolutely smash him like oh that team was that player was very aggressive and I hadn’t adjusted yet I felt like that was um you know the second half of game one which bled into game two and the nuggets are the defending champions for a reason I mean when you go back and look at the first round as well against the Lakers they were down in the first half every single one of those games and I think that they came into this one kind of thinking like all right we’re the defending champs we got this we’re just going to come out and you know turn it up in the second half and that’s not happen against the Timberwolves so uh credit Michael Malone taking the ball out of Jamal Murray’s hands out of Joker’s hands to bring it up uh switching where Aaron Gordon is on offense allowing other guys to just like get the ball past half court then initiate their offense um and I also wonder if Jaylen Brunson I mean Jaylen Jamal Murray is a little bit healthier now right because you watch those first two games was like he can’t get by anybody you see him in game three and game four they’re picking him up and he’s like Gone full layup maybe and one so it’s like okay I think those are some major differences uh in the first two games and what we’ve seen the SEC second two games yep that checks out I mean it didn’t hurt also that you’re you know you’re Supporting Cast is burying threes on every every opportunity uh and I think this game four um people have sort of reset their priors to more like where we were pre-series as opposed to just recognizing that that was actually quite a close game and I think yes the Nuggets really you know they they put together a nice run early uh took control of the lead and never really relinquished it but um you know there were opportunities for Minnesota to get back in there and they just did some some pretty stupid things um that said uh you know that is there um is there an argument to be made here that uh you know we’ve sort of we’ve we you’ve gotten your games from the likes of the Aaron Gordons of the world and even you know the the holidays and the Reggie Jackson and and the Christian Bruns of the world like it starts to distill now into a handful of players and can you see this kind of getting to a game six and game seven in this series where it just becomes you know what can yic do against the defense of the Timberwolves versus what can ant do against the uh the Denver Nuggets and is that or is that too reductive in terms of the way these teams can beat each other right now yeah that’s that’s not that never is the Nuggets right like if you go look back at the uh the finals last year against Miami yes Nicole yic is just biing up bam out of Bio but I remember you know the game ends and it’s like oh let’s talk to Christian Brown because he had a great game there’s always there’s seemingly always a role player that plays above what you thought they would do in that situation um and that’s what makes Nicole AIC so great we always hear oh uh good players are really good great players make their teammates better Nicole leic is that in essentially in a nutshell right like he’s making Aaron Gordon better he’s made Michael Porter Jr better Jamal Murray like all of these guys feed off of what he’s providing offensively so I think it’s going to continue to be uh what other what opportunities are there uh made by Nicole yic I think for him the thing to watch is his field goal percentage right those first two games I think he was like 41 or 42% from the field and that is not Nicole yic right like we know scoring wise high efficiency and if you’re going to have any chance against Denver you know trying to get him under 50% from the field and taking more threes is kind of how you do it I think the Joker’s kind of woken up from that uh and I think he’s he’s understanding like okay this is a really tough team that I got to make sure all my teammates are involved consistently yeah I think this is It’s a unique series because I think after game two there was a ton of uncertainty and a ton of variance in this series just because course because game two was so bizarre one of the greatest defensive performances the team has had this Century in the playoffs with what the Wolves did in Denver and then also just like what was Jamaal Murray gonna look like because if he’s gonna look like if he’s gonna look like Poor Man’s D’Angelo Russell which he did in game two where it felt like he had no explosion no lift he’s just getting swallowed up by n and Jaden McDaniels uh and what what was his health going to look like going forward uh and now he looks fine he looks 100% healthy he’s got bounc he didn’t have he didn’t have an amazing scoring game in game four but he looked like himself uh and he had eight assists um and he played well and now I think the series there’s not that much variance in it like I think the kind of the battle lines have been drawn Denver are slightly better than Minnesota not a ton better but they are the better team and they have games five and seven at home and that’s why they’re minus 185 series favorites um Chris do you think there is any adjustment that Minnesota can make to kind of to tilt this back in their favor is there anything like rotation wise or strategically anything they should be picking at um going forward I guess like I can take the previous question and that question put them together when I think of Minnesota and that’s they’ve become too Anthony Edwards dependent even if you go look back at game one offensively right I think they had maybe 40 points at the half and I feel like he had 20 or 24 whatever it was it just felt like man this guy has to carry the scoring load offensively and during the regular season that wasn’t Minnesota’s uh motto that’s not how they operated so I think that kind of favors Denver and if you go look at game two was Carl Anthony towns being that uh other offensive Force I think they need to find more balance in their offense and I think we can have a seven game series here but if they’re going to be Anthony Edwards Anthony Edwards Anthony Edwards I think that plays into Denver’s hands uh at some point you know I mean I see the shooting splits they’re amazing 50% from the field 40% from three-point range 28 points a game you’re like oh can he keep this up sure but I think the the offense in general um is a little bit out of rhythm when Anthony Edwards is is is doing that interesting um can you help me understand cat as a handicapper one of the singular players that is the most frustrating because the uncertainty bands around what he’s going to give you on a given night are just enormous like some games he is the difference and some games he is a ghost and does feel like your point is very fair I think if this is just hey Anthony Edwards get us across the Finish Line buddy well guess what they’re going to come across the Finish Line second um and I think the uh you know I I didn’t see anything specifically that Denver did defensively that I was like oh wow they’ solved cat like I kind of feel like it’s still in there and if he shows out and has like a good shooting night and is engaged and is out there is you know is part of the you know the the you just the flow of the offense more effectively then yeah they they’re they’re alive to to um you know know steal another one in Denver if not defend home court well in six so um yeah I’m I’m I’m really struggling here to come up with a fair price on like what his current contribution should be on a given and nightly basis for this timber wolves team well that’s a prop I would never play car simply because I think back to like different moments right like for instance we had Rudy gobear on when he won a defensive player of the year um a week ago however long ago that was right and cat was at his house like their right but so we have him sit down and you know Rudy goar is kind of like making fun of cat a little bit and it became a meme of cat in the background like what you say about me right like and it’s kind of like that’s a microcosm of him as a player where you’re like you know how talented he is you know what he can do um and then when an with Anthony Edwards being there just like it was with like Jimmy Butler it’s like weird where when a perimeter player is going it’s like sometimes Carl Anthony towns gets lost and with Rudy goar back on the floor you kind of see that right like okay Anthony Edward’s doing his thing Rudy goar knows who he is then Carl who are you right now the only game in this series where like yes Carl Anthony towns looks like he knows exactly who he is what he’s supposed to do is when Rudy goar missed game two with the birth of his son right uh like ND Reed he comes in you know what he’s going to try to do who he is and towns just feels like you know how good he can be but that’s not his ident every night so it kind of it can EB and flow either way and it just is contingent on how that first quarter is yeah I think overall just broadly holistically as a man I am Pro Carl Anthony towns which isn’t you know necessarily the best spot bra bra sometimes but I think with cat like cat need it we need to remember that like cat is playing the four like he plays power forward now he’s been a center his entire career he has adjusted to fit into this team I the other thing too with cat that he doesn’t really get credit for like cat was the number one overall pick like he was the franchise player this was his team then Anthony Edwards comes into town and now this is an this is clearly Anthony edwards’s team and this team still has like seemingly Immaculate chemistry and Vibes and Cat and ant like ant is cutting off cat and press conferences and they’re just all buddy buddy and it’s all good like cat has receded into this new role seamlessly and I get that he’s not a perfect player I get that he was terrible um for parts of game four but still I mean you look up and here’s the thing like cat’s still averaging 18 and8 on 50% from the floor on 56% from three in this series overall it’s been good it’s just that when it’s bad it looks really really bad but I think cat has almost I think he has be I think he’s really been underrated his entire career because he hadn’t won before really an got there or the year that Jimmy Butler was there but like cat’s never going to be the best player on a championship team he’s going to be the low-end second or highend third best player on a title team in my opinion there’s a lot there right I’m gonna go to the one term underrated right and there’s just no way right he’s a number one overall pick uh here’s guy right now yeah I well I guess that’s the thing number one pick in compared to Anthony Davis like those were the comps right we like okay that’s what that’s what you think he he’s going to be so I I just think there’s a lot to that but I point to also like that 60 point game he had in the press conference after and just the chemistry of the team like oh okay you’re gonna go get 60 let’s go let’s feed him and then they ended up losing and Coach bench was like what we’re not gonna win anything if this is the approach we’re gonna have like we’re immature and I think that’s kind of like Carl Anthony towns with this group in in in a nutshell right like when he’s going at it and doing his thing it’s like all right so what is what’s happening with everybody else and when everybody else is kind of founding chemistry it’s like he just feels like the you know U round Peg trying to get into the square right like just it’s like it’s odd but you know he’s Uber talented and I think that’s like it’s kind of uh what we’re seeing even in this series like yes you put you said the numbers right like those numbers sound great if they’re Nas read but when towns you’re like man this guy getting like next year like what what’s happening here and I think that’s the push pull of like man and like you said Carl Anthony towns comes on our show whenever we ask you know what I mean like doesn’t duck it we talk to him all the time you’re like man he’s easy to like but at the same token when you watch it you’re like all right you’re you’re a number one pick you’re like this you were the franchise player like now go gota wait for it and it doesn’t feel like it’s happening yeah well to we’ll have to do some more thinking about this cuz like honestly he’s a tweener between a four and a five and when he was playing the five the defense wasn’t good enough for them to be Championship caliber which is why they do the Rudy go move in the first place and now that he’s a four it doesn’t feel like his offense is as important right which is which is you know some of that is because of Anthony Edwards you know bleeding up that usage you know or blotting up that usage I guess um but uh yeah I mean yeah I’m I’m I’m really kind of confounded by this Minnesota team because yeah winning those first two games really kind of seemed like they had unlocked an entirely new level with what they what this unit was capable of uh and then all it took was uh um you know a couple cold minutes in game four and it’s like everything’s falling apart now which is uh which is wild but um uh is there a a small adjustment they can make defensively because I does feel like to a degree Malone figured something out with the way that they were uh trying to keep um Conley away from Murray uh and that did kind of seem to to at least make the flow of the offense a heck of a lot better for the Nuggets than what we saw in game two um and you know do you just kind of say hey look if they’re G to kind of beat us that way then we’re going to have to find another way to defend or do you think that that was uh you know that that that this is all about fixing the Minnesota offense if they’re gonna compete I almost want to like duck out of the camera for this right but I look at the Magnificent game two who wasn’t there Rudy goar sure sure when you go look at what what is it that people say about Rudy gobear like oh defensive play the air but come playoffs can’t have and I go oh man it looks like it’s happening again where they moved Aaron Gordon to this spot and now they’re just eating alive and it’s like is Rudy gobear the weakest link defensively right now like what is happening and I you can’t take him out of the starting lineup right but I just feel like in crucial minutes maybe you go towns and Nas Reed and to the point we’ve been make it about Carl Anthony towns maybe you get him comfortable in that way that is bold that is like like off the charts uh crazy but I go look at game two catch your opponent by surprise I think the absence of goar the fact that that was a surprise in game two mattered I really do like if it if it catches any really they just need something that the Nuggets aren’t prepared for I think to tilt the series back but maybe I’m crazy I think you’re crazy I start really good play I get that I understand I think that I think we forget that like game one Rudy go was was magnificent like I thought he was the reason they won that game along with Anthony Edwards obviously but goar’s defense in that game was so disruptive and I thought he wrecked things and I thought that he was a big reason why joic was just so sped up and then game two I do think a lot of game two a lot of the benefit was like the no would have a gay playy for Rudy go all the time between game one and game two and how are they going to adjust that and then oh he’s he’s gonna have a kid and he’s not going to be there and it was just a bit of a weird game and now they have adjusted but I think ultimately like you just have to go with your talent at some point and I look no one loves NZ Reed more than I do but Rudy go is just the better basketball player than NZ Reed and I know it’s not a perfect fit but I think you’ve got to go down with ant cat and Rudy those are your three best players um and you’ve got to let them in a way figure it out um before we jump to the Western Conference Champion Market uh the second leg of the Triple Crown will be run on Saturday watch the prous stakes at Pimco race course the action starts at 4:30 p.m. e on NBC and peacock all right let’s talk quickly about the conference title markets Chris before we let you go uh now we should mention we are recording late Monday afternoon so we don’t know the results of uh Celtics Cavs or thunder Mavs game four but uh bearing that in mind and with the Nuggets Chris you a little bit concerned that they kind of it was hard work against the Lakers even though it was only five games they kind of threw their toys out the pram in game two against the Wolves now this series is a bloodbath are you a little bit concerned about their Outlook going forward the fact that that it has been such a war for them so [Music] far uh no um because the Mavs and thunder look like that’s that’s a knockdown drag out series that seems even more physical um when you look at Luca donic I don’t know if he’s gonna finish half of those games right the way he’s like lipping off the court and yeah um same thing can be said on the other end like Shay gilis Alexander in these battles so um I think out west that’s just what it is these teams are so talented like out west I go teams one through five like all five of those teams felt like a number one seed to me right like thunder um the Nuggets obviously the defending champs right like I just look at that and I go okay like yes it’s the fifth seed of the Dallas Mavericks but do they feel like The Underdogs against the Thunder like not at all so I think I understand what you’re asking about the Nuggets but I think whoever they’re face they’re going to be in the same situation about the end of that Series yeah that makes sense um and I guess uh I guess does this throw a little bit of cold water on title hopes or just uh you know like ultimately they get there but have given away you know have have bled too much too much fatigue and now they take on a you know a light lightly tested Celtics team potentially well so remember the Celtics dealing with the Chris DS porzingis uh injury situation right where it’s like well he’s got to come back and is he gonna be 100% or like how are they gonna work him back in what kind of like how what kind of health is he gonna have when he comes back on the floor because it’s different I I like almost assume the Celtics are gonna make it out of the East uh when I look at the landscape in general I feel like it’s gotten just easier and easier for them um the war of with some of their opponents and their injuries but then I go okay you’re going to face the Mavericks I like them on and or the Nuggets like I like every team almost every team out west over the Celtics in that way so yes I do understand the concept that the Celtics will have an easier Road um but man I just I just like these uh these teams from the West better now I guess if you’re thinking like they’re going to be banged up physically whether you’re saying that’s Luca or you know Michael Porter Jr someone from the Nuggets or uh someone from OKC like Chad then I kind of get where you’re going with that but if everyone’s fully healthy um I think that the champion is gonna be crowned from the West so Chris on the Celtics they are right now minus 125 to win the title The Market whether it’s right or wrong uh will make them the favorites in the finals no matter who their opposition is because they’re 64- win team dominant statistically throughout the regular season um and they will I mean I think they’re going to have an easier Conference Finals matchup than whoever uh is out west is there something about the Celtics that you think is fraudulent that would make the market wrong on them making them the favorite very much so um and that’s upfront like man they scare when I looked at that game two against Cleveland and Evan Mobley played like he had a heartbeat it was like the Celtics could do nothing with that I mean it was like Evan Mo’s like yes I am a star in this league 11 points four assists in the first quarter and Al Horford looked 87 years old and it was like oh man Cleveland oh yeah Cleveland’s not Cleveland’s not gonna make this a series right they went away from that in the next game it was like Cleveland understood the winning formula Donovan Mitchell six points in the first half everybody else in all let’s get back to it in game nope game three they decided to throw that out and act like that never happened so um I I just think Chris dping is has to be on the floor he has to be impactful for the Celtics to win and that’s still a question mark for me whereas I think some of the other teams coming from from out west uh could be down a key player and I think they could still win obviously not the star of the team but maybe the third or fourth best player and I I think they I still like their chances against the subs yeah that checks out I mean the big the big kind of key is really just going to be how long the Western Conference Finals goes uh if it goes seven which seems plausible and then the Celtics just have all that time to get right and have home game game one like do they B are you basically starting the series at one nothing right um because plenty of examples of that through history with the NBA where the imbalance of rest to start a series you know favors the home team to a degree that’s just outrageous so um but yeah good definitely Food For Thought of if the Celtics take game one and porzingis is either not back or not looking like as the the effective piece who is you know so key to their you know success during the regular season and then uh definitely a reason to maybe look for the Western Conference Team then yeah and I guess it sounded like I banged on the Celtics a little bit right when I like Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum uh especially when I listen to Jason Tatum after their last win kind just open up about the criticism coming his way and we’ve kind of been saying that on our shows recently of like Jason Tatum rebounding assisting playing defense way better than he did like I still remember that first like playoff run where he was you know scoring like a machine and we were like whoa this kid is like for real and now I watch him like he’s so patient and makes sure everyone’s involved and kind of waits for his shots and gives his all an defensive end and rebounds no matter what’s happening I think that’s a huge key in the sense that if the Celtics are at 100% with Chris STS I do like them to win it yeah I think titum is such an interesting player um because I think he gets a bad rap that he hasn’t risen to the occasion because they haven’t won the title in their many trips to the Conference Finals and their one trip to the finals but people forget that two years ago game six in Milwaukee in janis’s house Tatum went in there and scored 46 and beat jannis and kept the Celtics season alive he punked Kevin Durant the series before that against Brooklyn when Brooklyn opened favorites to win that series he scored 50 and eliminated the MVP last year in game seven Tatum is a made man in big moments he with the season on the line in game six in Philly after he had been terrible for three quarters last season he won the game by himself in the fourth quarter hitting huge threes over and over again and like we forget that he’s like the same age as Desmond ban like Tatum is baby T’s 26 years old like he is not his story has not been written yet entirely uh and I think that you know look they’re minus 125 to win the title so uh this may be the year and if it’s not Tatum’s going to have plenty of chance is um to write his legacy because I don’t think he shrinks in these moments in fact I think he rises through them um anyway we all leave you uh on that note Chris can you tell people uh what you’re working on uh where to find you in the playoffs and uh and where to follow you on social media Yeah final not on what you just said too because you really like that’s something I love to to bang home for people is like look at PE players who have been in the Conference Finals or the finals and lost Tatum it’s it feels like if it’s not Nicole yachin company it’s it’s one of those teams with one of those guys but yeah uh NBA TV throughout the playoffs about before every uh game before every round and after the postgame press conferences we actually have them live and we discuss what the players are talking about as in what I was mentioned with Jason Tatum so it’s called playoff Central live you can find me there or uh nba.com and I’m at Chris Miles TV on Twitter and Instagram love it well thank you very much for joining us Chris hopefully our next can pull through uh and then give Tatum and co uh a match in the Conference Finals not feeling great about it but uh I think they may pull through thanks very much for your time Chris all right guys cheers all right Olympic champion Sydney mlin levrone leads a star sted crowd at the LA Grand Prix this weekend watch America’s top track stars uh on Saturday at 3M Eastern as they continue their run up to the summer games in Paris only on NBC and peacock all right let’s uh let’s move to the Stanley Cup playoffs Boston team Drew that’s not doing as well um much to my delight the Boston Bruins down 3-1 against my Florida Panthers minus 2500 Florida had well I mean they dominated game four they deserved to win but they had no right scoring the uh the equalizing goal from Sam Bennett on the power play I have no idea how that didn’t get called back you know what the weird thing is about hockey with that stuff the announcers never know like they never know what the call is going to be and they’re convinced one way and I’m not saying the announcers are wrong because I’m usually on their side being like yeah that’s definitely going to get called back and then it’s just like a complete Co flip we just don’t understand it at all um but the Panthers are in very strong position um we’re recording before Rangers kan’s game five um in the East but um how are you enjoying the NHL playoffs so far uh well I’m more connected this year than I have been because of uh some investments in the Oilers and the dirty conects really uh got I couldn’t really couldn’t believe what they did to Conor McDavid last disgraceful yeah um that said though uh yeah it has been awesomely entertaining and the fact that you have eight very good teams at this stage has made these second round games really really competitive and fun um my general kind of finger in the air what happens here Stars over Panthers honestly I don’t have an especially strong take that anyone’s going to be able to start the Panthers the way that they’re playing right now in the East um and uh I got to say of all of the goalkeepers so far the um uh ainger for the stars is that how you pronounce it uh he he seems to be the most uh capable net minder of the teams remaining in the west so uh if you’re gonna you know you know if if you’re looking for a late Runner here in the Stanley Club playoffs Stars seem like the the pick to me is there a way to capitalize on that uh yes I think there is true um I would say there’s uh I have three thoughts um on how to bet the Stanley Cup playoffs at the market firstly to your point on the Stars the live market of which there is surprisingly decent liquidity um in terms of betting the Stanley Cup outright market and the conference markets every time the Vancouver Canucks score a goal Dallas’s price to win the cup and win the West should be shortening because that increases the chances that Dallas are going to draw the Canucks instead of the Oilers in round three and that is a massive swing like the Oilers are going off as like minus 220 moneyline favorites against the Canucks the Oilers are a much much better team than Vancouver even if they end up losing the series that’s hockey that’s what happens um so that is the first thing is that those prices I don’t think are moving rationally enough the other thing off of that uh and I think a better way than even betting the stars that their current price of plus 360 to win the cup um and plus yeah so that that’s the main Avenue at the moment I will the one thing is that we’re recording before Stars AVS um game four which will have repercussions on all these markets but I think the best way to bet the stars is to bet your man Jake ottinger to win the con SMI the market is saying right now like as we’re recording there some 13 to one Jake um that’ll change result tonight but the market is implying that he’s like a sub 30% chance to win the conm if Dallas win the cup that’s completely wrong I think he’s minimum 50% all of these Stars skaters clustered at the moment in terms of their point totals and they’re all low Point totals as well um like Meo Hein and leads right now with nine points and he’s got he’s like a minus six plus minus um and the Stars had an extremely clustered point total among their skaters in the regular season that is carried over to the playoffs expect it will carry over going forward they don’t have some heliocentric star like Conor McDavid or Nathan McKinnon it is a very Democratic Diversified scoring output and meanwhile ottinger has been magnificent in goal now he’s probably G to give up eight goals of the Avalanche tonight as we record this but so long as that so long as he kind of goes par tonight also I suspect that his Equity will still be mispriced and then the last one for you drew your other two men Matthew kachak and Alexander bov one of them is going to win the KMI if the Panthers lift the cup I think that is about an 85 to9 % probability Market is not pricing it as such serg brosi who’s kind of just not being great in the playoffs he’s getting way too much of the Panthers Equity at the moment all these other Panthers skaters like yeah vei Monto there’s some chance but they not as much chance as the odds are implying I think barov and kachu are neck and neck and I think you’re better off if you like the Panthers my beloved Panthers you’re better off just betting barov and kachuck each of them to win the km rather than betting any Panthers outrights okay all right I’m I’m down so con Smite Market we attack I that that sounds like a fun way to kind of round out uh a playoff field here cuz uh yeah I mean you know o Oilers losing a little steam here this this should just shouldn’t be so painful against the Canucks and that’s not not a good sign so far no it’s not great and we’ll see what happens they’re a weird team they really they are the ultimate play with their food um type of operators the Edmonton Oilers but I think they’re going to come out I think they’re going to Truck Vancouver in game four we’ll see they really should have won game three it’s just they hit multiple times I think like by money pucks deserve to win they’re like 82% they should have won um but you know so be it um they they didn’t get good goal tending that is the floor of the team it’ be interesting to see um where they go in that direction but um just the follow up on the km thing with bov and kachuck if you back both of them to win the con SMI and say like average price in the market is around 10 to one on each of them you’re basically getting plus 455 um for either of them to win um the con SMI as opposed to backing plus 240 on the Panthers to lift the cup so I think that the plus 455 on kachak or barov is significantly more value um than plus 240 um on the cup so that that would be my bet uh in the market all right we are done don’t forget to check out nbcsports.com for more information to help you with your wages thanks to those you’re watching on the NBC Sports YouTube channel and if you’re listening to to us in podcast form don’t forget to rate and subscribe also a reminder to find all your favorite NBC Sports shows on Amazon music just head to amazon.com MBC Sports from J crou from Drew dini thank you again to Chris Miles and we’ll see you soon
