The Dundee win, the Scotland wind and James Forrest’s revival | The Huddle Breakdown

James and Alan look back on the past few weeks for Celtic, their run in to the the final few weeks of the season, the impact the weather has had on performances and how Celtic can get over the line now in the league.

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and you are welcome along out of the hibernation phase of the Huddle breakdown uh James here with my good friend Allan Morrison from Celtic by numbers after a what about a two week Hiatus here um going to catch up on some of the recent performances particularly look back on the dunde game and uh maybe look ahead to the weekend uh a little bit here coming up but how how you getting on Allan very well very well so you know I don’t know what the last sighting of Ender was the last I heard he was cading for dermit Desmond and Liam skills on a golf course that’s the last I knew yeah he’s he’s living the high life now he’s this big shot job he’s got and uh just just for our uh both our loyal listeners and viewers um you know unlike the uh the sfa’s report we want to have some transparency here uh on on a review of why we’ve been absent and you know we we uh Chang platforms some some uh months back to resolve some of the technological challenges that we had had in getting a clear signal and that limited us from doing some live shows that we had done periodically on on um YouTube and uh the second part of that is I’m not trained up uh to do the post- production so even when it’s just Allen and I uh Alan uh Enda will do the post-production with this new platform that we’re we’re using and if he he was out of town he wasn’t available to do that last week so even when Allan and I were available to do a recording he he wasn’t around to to to produce it so um hopefully I’ll get coached up uh for the new season that’ll be a project for the summer hopefully I can drag Enda in off the golf course and um off the yacht in the Mediterranean that he apparently is also uh spending some time on with models and other such uh people but uh but yeah so we’re back and um let let’s just Dive Right In on the dunde game some of the hot top ICS coming out of that obviously we’ve got a a title race that’s kind of flipped a little bit since we last recorded um at least the the relative odds that are that are permeating uh with the three-point Gap now uh and and gold difference Gap that’s opened up a little bit in Celtic’s favor uh so yeah let let’s real quick what what are your your highlevel takeaways Allen from the that glorious barn burner of uh dunde I mean what a let down after that aine game um obvious viously but uh it’s impossible to to maintain that level of excitement even if it was uh hair raising at times yeah listen it was it was another game uh a bit like the samirin game a few weeks ago which was actually massively impacted by the weather and and this has been a bit of a recent theme you there were high high winds and you know Celtic played with the wind in that first half and pretty much penned Dundee in for the most part uh and then this the second half had to face a it was a 15minute spell really 15-minute spell where they couldn’t they just couldn’t get a hold of the ball um and they were basically pinned in with a barrage of throwin and Corners free kicks and so forth um and and which obviously the wind was was was aiding and uh you know it’s bizarre to talk about wind in the context of professional football because I mean I’m used to heavily involved in in Grassroots football and and wind is is the thing that absolutely ruins a game especially if your kids play in a team that’s very kind of get the ball on the ground possession based it it can completely uh decimate trying to play football in that way um and you’re playing the side of a hill you know just outside barnesley what have you it’s kind of tricky you know um but in professional football you’re not really used to seeing wind um have a massive impact but it clearly did in that St mirin game and it it did to slightly lesser extent I think in the Dundee game and that so I’m not making again I’m not making excuses for Celtic especially the the second half performance which we can touch on maybe why it kind of disintegrated a little bit um but but I think we do have to for me we have to acknowledge the fact that the elements played their part um and and and anything anything which dis it was a fiery pitch we know we’ve had issues on the pitch um to Echo Brandon Rogers comment which I thought was brilliant before the game it looked like it needed watering actually it was a bit it was a bit bumpy and a bit dry and a bit fiery uh really so listen these this is Scottish football and you need to be used to that um and it’s no excuse but you know Celtic are a possession based team that want to pass the ball around quickly and all of those elements all of those physical environmental factors how generally will hinder to some extent again I’m not making excuses for poor performances or bad tactics or anything like that I’m just I’m just trying to State um you know hopefully what is factually the environment that they operate in it’s then up to the team to really adapt to that and I actually thought in the first half they did I mean people tend to remember the bad bits some I think especially because the second half was a bit fraught um but actually the level of control in the first half I thought was was pretty decent to be fair with you so overall again we go back to our our stated position on the Pod from about two months ago which is just just effing let’s not worry too much about the performance and we kind of I we will get into the performance that’s what we do but you know ultimately you kind of file it under that category I think yeah it was um you know I I one of the things I try to bring to the table is uh uh a focus on the opposition as well and um oh oh yeah yeah well no I was just going to say because I I think it’s said rather than just repeat what you said because I agree with everything you just said I’ll I’ll delve into that a little bit I I thought it was interesting that um they lined up kind of in a 4231 you know they they didn’t really play to Bunker you know we we always talk about um sides that are you know uh willing to have a go against us on a relative basis versus you know setting up in a 541 or you know some kind of hybrid 352 that kind of thing but yeah I you know as far as a game against dunde goes I mean I it was pretty um pretty normal I guess meaning that not abnormal in the sense that they weren’t looking to just hit on the counter and just bunkering you know so I I thought that they um so that that’s you know kind of I was great on a curve meaning that given that fact um I agree with we were under control but I I was actually surprised that we wouldn’t we didn’t create more um when we had the wind in particular uh but you know to your your points a a good you know a good one relative to the the pitch conditions and you know some of the challenges with the wind um which obviously were variables we didn’t know necessarily going into the game even we knew the pitch was going to be a mess but yeah the first goal the Bol the ball fires up off of kyogo I mean that you know he’s not laying it off to Forest he just misc controlled it because the ball you comes firing in at him pitches bobbly it fires up off his foot and you know Forest reaction is absolutely incredible it’s AB brilliant volley but that that that came really was lucky essentially that was where the the conditions actually played to Celtics benefit really well that you know that’s a Nuance but when you’re playing with uh material wind I mean even something is relatively innocuous is like that pass to kyogo I mean it’s you know it’s just you know those reaction times and touch are so fine-tuned um that just a little bit of you know over that distance with the extra wind can set that timing on and you have a bobbly pitch I mean it really is a matter of of moments and uh fractions of a second and timing that can really impact that um so other than those that any other um before we get into some individual players any other kind of highlevel factors in the game that uh were surprising to you relative to tactics I I I’ll name one again just from a this is a you know I I hate now you know since I’ve kind of delved into the analytics stuff over the last few years I swear to I swear to people that that wasn’t always the case when I would watch Celtic games and um you know when I see something even when the opposition’s doing something that’s just absurdly like ridiculous I get distracted and the one that distracted me in this game was how in the hell is dunde not doing long throwin the entire game their first long throw like they had a lot of throwin I I checked it was some they had more uh I think they had more throws than we did in the game which again is you know a little bit unusual um and I think Corners were equal like maybe 88 something like that and the fact that I think it was the 80 I made a mental note sorry they they had 32 throwin let’s be accurate about this they had 32 throws and we had 24 yeah yeah so you know again not not typical but now again with the Wind It was kind of chaotic and that so yeah yeah yeah so it I I made a mental note of it it was the 85th minute before they did a long throw and then almost everything from that on was a long throw and they kind of created some havoc and you know um given the relative strength and weakness teams yeah it was the lad duny they brought on though he was a substitute so he he had it absolutely enormous I mean he was th almost throwing it you know past the goalkeeper yeah yeah I mean he was really good at it but again I to me like have one of your guys with long arms I mean you know these are adult professional footballers somebody can throw the ball freaking 25 yards to get it into the box is kind of my point um so that was that that just I was like you because immediate I mean how many times that they have a throwin in the first 84 minutes I mean it was it was not a small number like they had I you know let’s say four or five I’m just going off memory where they were uh in a position to do a long throw into our box and they just took it short an immediate lose possession like it’s it’s it would never turn into anything as it is apt not to do um of teams of their Level Playing us I anyway I just one of those glaring issues I’m just like you know when you see an opposition manager that doesn’t do certain things it’s just so obvious um but anyway I I apology apologize for the digression so any other tactical aspects from a high level that that uh you found of Interest well I mean they you know they were very um clear that they had a plan and that plan seemed to be in the first half basically let Carter Vic and scales have the ball and then Man Mark everybody else um and actually car Vickers and skills brought the ball forward quite a few times I think they just looking very quickly had something like between them 13 um what I would call Progressive runs or a progressive run being you carry the ball at your feet at least 10 yards inside the opposition half right so there’s 13 of those between C backs in the first half and only one in the second half so so that what because you know dundy basically that was their approach for the first half Against the Wind and then when they had the wind in their favor it was basically just get the ball into the corners turn the Celtic defense and press really high and force throwin Corners free kicks or whatever and then just launch the ball in the Box I mean four of their chances were created off corners but then Celtic created three chances off Corners as well to be fair so um you know they they they they had a lot of moments I think it wasn’t you know sometimes talk about chances um in terms of you know we talk about a chance we mean like it ends culminates in a sh at goal um I can’t remember which data provider it was now that used to record dangerous moment so no shot actually happened it was just like a one of those one of those oh no kind of moments where the ball’s kind of bubbling about in the six-yard Box nobody actually has a shot at goal it’s just like it’s just not it’s just bit a bit hairy um they had a few of those I think uh you know you couldn’t you couldn’t log it as a as a shot Etc yeah I think I think it’s still worth doing that to be honest with you I think we should have hairy moments as a data point but um so so that so I mean that none of that and then of course when they did attack they attacked you know the left side they they placed bang on the right who’s a quite a tall guy surprise surprise and and and played a lot of aerial bowls especially down Celtics uh Celtics left again as usual so uh there was nothing particularly Innovative about any of that a lot of teams have done that before with Celtic you know go to man-to-man Midfield let the center halfes have the ball attack the Celtic left hand side you know press them High when you’ve got the elements in your favor Force corners and throws it’s textbook really I mean it makes perfect sense it makes absolute perfect sense and actually they had a lot of strong performances in the game um I think you know maau their midfielder has got be you know’s decent player one of the best out with the top the top two um you know bang had a strong game the striker bakayoko went off had a strong game Sila the sitting midfielder he had a really strong game as well and the the left back Dodson uh you know he was he was their sort of main attacking weapon in terms of delivery so I think that a lot I think they were excellent in terms of they stuck to their plan really well I thought and uh you know it was It was a errors well it was bad luck in terms of from their point of view in terms of Celtics opening goal and then and then a really bad error for the second goal and that kind of killed them a little bit because you know from the 45th to the 60th minute they penned Celtic back um and I think it was interesting you know watching on Celtic TV so um you Peter Grant doing the cool commentary and and he was getting really frustrated because s just kept you know heart gives the ball to scales scales gives the ball to Taylor and then you know and then we start again you know I mean it’s like or or the ball doesn’t get to Taylor oh just like why are we doing this why clearly they’re playing to pin us in our own half you know and it wasn’t really I don’t I don’t know whether it was coincidental but it wasn’t really until iata and um Eda came on that the Celtic re re got control but again that’s easy easy to you know causation correlation is those two events correlated I’m not sure I think that I think getting that second goal was probably more took the wind out their sales really um but having said that one of the things which I noticed and this is one of the interesting aspects of packing um in terms of a lot packing data can become a little bit it can become quite predictable what I mean by that is you pass the ball down the right hand side um if you if you pass it from Center back to Winger you’ve probably taken out the left Celtics right winger and the left you know on right midfielder Etc Wing or right left fi Etc so he packed those two players right what I not what one thing I noticed in that second half was it became really random who was getting packed and and what that that sounds a bit abstract but that what was physically happening what does that mean it means that we were structurally all over the place and the midfielders particularly were all over the place and and what the thing that that IAT changed when he came on is he gave the Midfield structure it was a simple thing but he he gave it a basic structure he sat in his little you know the center circle kind of thing and played pretty much the width of the center circle and sat in that Midfield and and sat and played as a proper pivot um and he just gave the team structure and and then O’Reilly and hatti could wander because hatti wanders anyway to a huge extent um McGregor just doesn’t seem on it in terms of his physical capabilities to get around the pitch and obviously Riley’s trying to get in touch with kyogo when he can as well and and it became very open in that second half so so I think two things the goal it just bad luck for them bad mistake Forest punished them brilliantly and that kind of deflated them but then he wat just I think just gave that structure I think that made a huge difference uh to to the team yeah that that to me was you know this is the the um the Perpetual concern I I have and have had is that you know the fact that their Midfield did have a very good game um yeah the old yeah a significant aspect to that is just the physicality to me I mean they they have pretty good athletes in there and because they were manm marking like that um and you know just letting center backs have the ball you know I I just I I worry on the old recipe basis as we we look ahead to our friends at the karik for example uh we know that’s a similar uh prescription that we’re going to get um or very likely to get out of a McKenna side um you know if this is the iteration of McGregor that we’re dealing with and it may very well be um you know understandably you know Achilles are it’s a serious injury um and and you would expect given his character and the importance and all that stuff that you know he he may be uh playing through pain or you know not not 100% for sure um and you know a as much as we um uh love O’Reilly you know speed and and transition is not his strength and uh you know even against a team the level of dunde you know um hatate is going to get swatted like a fly at times and he did I mean it just when when you get in into uh more chaotic circumstances against bigger um more physical opposition that are at least decent you know that that creates these issues so yeah that that was the more concerning part for me that might be projectable forward was that we you know I I thought the Midfield was really concerning um in the second yeah relative to that mix and and again that’s that issue of fatiguing and you know it’s all all all in a dial um so yeah it it’s that’s something that could linger as we go forward I mean you know I I Harts as Midfield isn’t one that I’m terribly concerned about even though beninga May is a decent athlete but he’s not you know he’s not very good on the ball um think he went off after about 10 minutes or something at the weekend I don’t know oh I didn’t see that okay I I I mean maybe someone can in the comments can let us know if that’s a a bad injury you don’t know wish him he’s I like B Be he’s a really good player but’ be quite handy if he wasn’t get playing on the weekend yeah yeah so I you know that that was probably the the you know the takeaway from the game that would be more concerning for me um you know there there were positives too I mean again let’s segue to some of the positives I mean obviously the Star was uh was James Forest uh something that Delights me I’ve I’ve um as we me I mentioned to you before we went live here I mean I just I’ve been uh perpetually um annoyed with with I think the kind of some of the prevailing narratives on him for years now um you know just unfortunate uh rash of injuries uh early in his career and then obviously from 2020 on also having suffered some of those but he he just showed that level of you know and echoing something that Rogers has clearly said uh it’s just that level of quality I I always go back I mean I’ve said it before but I I go back to the Champions League game against Bayern Munich uh and I think it was in the 1718 campaign where he was you know I would argue the best player on the pitch in that game I mean he just you know performed at a level in multiple facets of the game not just in attacking but in controlling possession even his pressing was decent his defending his work rate all those things um so I was just I’m just delighted to see that he’s had this Resurgence and and um you know I I think it’s interesting to hear some wavering on the part of um the manager as far as maybe some of the decision- making um and that’s you know as Outsiders we can’t know what any Fitness issues he might be carrying throughout the season and training that kind of thing that sounds like that may not have been that big of a part of the calculation here uh which is all fascinating because again I you know I I don’t think a 32y old Winger in um his state is the solution at the Champions League level for Celtic but that was done pretty early in the season you know that that issue was you know largely a wash I would say in October for the most part um and given the dire nature of the wing play that we’ve had I mean it really is interesting that he has not featured more prominently even on a substitution basis even on making a squad basis I mean um so yeah just just uh I’m thrilled I I hope that he continues to um feature in some capacity because he’s showing that he’s just he’s still got that quality which you can’t you know you can’t teach that level of talent blending with IQ experience I mean it’s just it’s a formidable mix at his age um and uh yeah so long may it continue at least for the next few games yeah I mean again for that I mean Forest I think is is criminally really undervalued by a lot of the Celtic support has been for years as often happens with players that are just around all the time um and and are kind of taken for granted a little bit um as he has been um you know we maybe we contributed a little bit to that I mean last season I think you know he was the fifth Choice Winger I mean this just you know as far as poo was concerned forest was the fifth Choice Winger and we’re now position where a year older than he even was last year um he’s now you know potentially Mission critical as far as the running is concerned Why why is that well again you know well documented the and quality you use the word quality I mean what does that mean it’s a very loose abstract term really but it’s it’s it’s decision- making and its execution U of of of decisions and and the other Wingers have just proven to be so erratic so you know up and down really as as regards those things now it’s the very much the Modern Trend it’s the Modern Trend to have especially wide forwards that put a lot of what I call put a lot of risk in the game so they’ll try difficult things and that means that they’ll their past completion rates will be low and a lot of balls will fly over the bar I we used to talk about J in this regard but for every couple of two or three crosses that flew over the bar with J you got one right on the money right and you maybe got a couple of those in a game right but um with with with and with with and Palma and yang we just don’t see that as consistently so far I think with you’ve just got that sheer raw pace which um you can’t you can’t you can’t legislate for that’s always going to be an attractive proposition for a manager to have that pace in the team um and you know with Forest uh you know he it’s it’s it’s he he’s careful on the ball relative to the other Wingers that we’ve got meaning that sometimes he’ll just do the dull thing you’ll turn back and he’ll knock it back and he’ll He he’ll go again um but he he makes tends to make good decisions he won’t throw the ball in the Box unless he’s he thinks there’s a purpose behind it he won’t just do it for its own sake and if you’re going to have a striker like kyogo you need to be quite precise about your actions you need to be quite clinical because he’s just a little guy he’s not going to bash somebody out the way um so you know here we are our fifth Choice Winger is is is resurgent but great for him and uh you know I think it’s a great story if he can continue whatever happens now he’s he’s had that Dundee game which you know two goals in in a really sticky horrible game um that Celtic had to win um we always have that but I think there’s a few more a few more things to a few more stories to tell for James Forest this season um because he can’t you can’t beat he can’t beat intelligence he can’t beat intelligence and experience and making the right decision in big games which is why what he can do uh you know comp and especially relative to the uh the other players now you know the the thought of if maida’s back in play he seems to be on the training paddock at least um if he comes into play and you’ve got maybe MAA you’ve got this you know extremely quick front line again this sort of pressing machine as well because Coon’s actually one of the things I think he won more tackles nearly than anyone else the weekend I mean he doesn’t again he does stand out Palma’s actually not too bad that way just doesn’t have Coon’s raw Pace but Coon’s not too bad um in terms of his his defense some of his defensive actions if you’ve got that raw Pace but then you got Forest coming on 20 30 minutes to go to to sort of start to control the game more because what we’ve seen in with Celtic in the last few weeks is perhaps losing a bit of control in the latter stages of games um and again it almost happened at Dundee I mean Adam gave away an absolutely brainless free kick in the last couple of minutes that allowed another long high box ball to be launched into the box which the guy got in the hand off and only just headed past the post so we need a bit of intelligence and a bit of nouse uh to see out these games and and Forest whatever whatever else he may be lacking in terms of his explosive speed that he used to have he’s he’s definitely got that well I I I think the other thing he has is he can obviously he can play both wings but he can also go he’s bilateral like he can go both directions and I think that’s you know um the ability to to incorporate that into the attack I mean I you know I I’m starting to get concerned that that Coon’s a little one-sided in his um you know he he he tends to he seems to have an aversion to to going to his right so again you know um if I’m an opposition team that does some video scouting you’re gonna pick that up right away I mean why why would you not hedge him and and sit on on his uh you know basically force him to his right um and and I’m starting to see that a little bit you know some some teams are doing that including I thought dund a little bit um and you know that’s with Forest I mean you can’t you can’t do that with him he he can take you either direction and yes maybe he’s a fraction of or even a half step a little bit slower than um he used to be but he’s he’s not that much slower again you know it’s it’s not you know get back to me months two years that that’s when he’ll fall off a cliff as most most players do in that kind of age 33 34 35 and I the other part to me I mean I you know again you hear all these kind of narratives that are almost always perpetuated so it’s always you know most teams and managers aren’t going to slaughter their own players for obvious reasons um but you know he does seem to be a a first class professional and I mean he’s leaner now than I can ever remember him even even on her an when a lot of players seem like they lost weight and got leaner and you know uh for obvious reasons I mean to me he looks you know as fit as he as he did at any time and and right yeah so you know um you know I I I think his functional uh athleticism seems to be holding up pretty well um see yeah I think it’ll be interesting to me I mean you know the miraculous recovery of MAA side I’m always nervous when I hear you know even the manager mentioning tendon I mean that yeah that and and with the rash of soft tissue injuries that we had particularly hamstring problems um you know I I’d be really concerned about just unleashing him and expecting to get you know 90 minutes or 90 plus minutes out of him so I I think it’ll be really interesting to see um how how the wing Wingers are utilized um and you know whe whether um forest does ascend to a starting position or if he’s kind of slotted in is that Super Sub change up guy to your point um yeah because I I agree like I with some of these issues that we’re seeing in Midfield now I mean at this issue of um control and having him in there you know it I I I fear of that toxic combination potential of MAA on the left with hatate and scales and you know with a Man mark athletic Midfield you know opponent that that to me gives me some some concern um so yeah it it’ll be a point to be um a big question for the manager to answer here as we as we head into the runin yeah well it’s you know again we need to be careful because everyone’s rejoicing on Myers back but remember look how many games it’s taken a tat to get up to speed how many look how McGregor is struggling uh you know people were making kind of sweing statements about him you got to realize he’s come back from like you saying Achilles injury which is really painful and difficult and uh he’s he’s trying to be the man you know and run the midfield for Celtic and and he looks hampered and you got to be realistic about this I mean hati got through 90 minutes at the weekend which is great and actually um to your point he did get brushed off the ball very easily by their their more powerful mid D had a more powerful Midfield um but he also he he was also the one midfielder that got on the ball um quite a lot and he and and and he he he was the one who was providing more insightful passes than than the other two I think O’Reilly tends to be more effective near the Box Attis as we said before is probably more effective a little bit deeper um and I thought he it was a real mixed bag with with him with hatti um there was a lot of good stuff a lot of ball progression but there was a lot of turnovers there was a lot of giving the ball away there’s a lot of getting bumped off the ball too e easily um and and and but you know the point the point comes back to we Chuck my AA back in um you know we can’t expect miracles these players have had injuries it justes it does take time and you know I would rather we i’ would rather we’ played iata in a couple of those games and give McGregor an extra couple of weeks you know and brought McGregor on maybe for 20 minutes at the end just to kind of get his legs moving again in in in if you like against away for home sorry when he’s 3 up bring them on and let him just uh control the ball for the last 20 minutes that sort of thing rather than put them on to win the game from the start um so we we know that that that’s worrying it’s worrying we’ve talked about this many times about not looking after players and expecting too much from players that have been injured that if we’re get if no MAA is the new savior you know we need to be really really careful and and manage these players a lot better for hitting some form is a great bonus it means that you know with Palma back we’ve got options we don’t have to throw MAA in and and certainly at home to Hearts is is it really necessary you know to to throw him in from the start for example you know so I I hope you know I think it’s a for laor I think we’re as a club kind of given up like you have I think in terms of expecting football clubs not just Celtic in football clubs in general to look after players properly um but these things can can cost you games at the end of the day I mean you know that abine semi-final you know was it really the best thing to play McGregor from the start what did he you know would Celtic have had more control with the water yeah that that’s I it’s um and I’m not surprised because again just from what I know about Achilles injuries I mean those are long-term issues that that’s not something you um you know you typically get over in a matter of weeks or even a couple of months meaning that you can you can recover to the point of being able to be functional um but and again obviously not knowing whether it was just a strain or a slight Terror or that kind of if obviously it wasn’t a a total Terror else he wouldn’t have been walking have been having to have surgery and be out for a year or something um but Achilles are major s you know injuries that that’s you know and the fact that he was out for the duration and there was talk he was going to be out for the rest of the season I you know so it does present a real quandry because um that does you know if he does not have the physical ability to um progress the ball as we’re used to him doing uh particularly when you’re talking about you know uh opponent manm marking in in Midfield uh you know that puts a huge burden on um atate to to provide that uh which again we know his risk profile is one of that can be brilliant or it can be you know not not you know less so uh and then it you know it really does I mean that’s that’s why that this you know I I say tongue and cheek you know dockerty was you know generally The Narrative on him has been pretty positive this season I I’ve largely followed along with that and agreed and I thought their game plan was pretty smart that that’s why the the throwing thing was driving me berserk um but you know less so Hearts but you know you start seeing some of the other managers I mean St mirin he’s been a pretty smart manager um so and they played a lot of manm marking at times against teams and and certainly us so yeah I I just don’t know um because the the risk reward on McGregor if you’re if you’re not getting that ball progression you’re generally not going to get a lot of creative passing out of him and unless he’s going to change his mental makeup to sit like a w he’s going to get out of position and if he doesn’t have that athleticism that he Norm has in order recover and man you know it’s fine margins as we say I mean it’s just that 2 three four 5% that someone may not have because of carrying an Achilles injury and and still recovering from it I mean to me it’s really concerning agreed I mean um just just checking there I think there was well there was six six pack passes but they weren’t particularly um impactful so it kind of puts the strain on um um on the center backs for a start you know because normally he would pick the ball up from them and then it you know does it puts some of the burden on O’Reilly and hati to be creating and covering and as I say it kind of fell apart a little bit in that in that early part of that second half as McGregor kind of um he was fatigued so against a more sort of you muscular organized team like Harts I think there’s some Merit in in water starting and then you know just just to give give to allow hatti and ay that bit more freedom and security to do their thing and to give you to take the burden off the center backs to be the ones that are coming out and um pressing the ball but you know at home at Celtic Park big Stadium the wind’s usually less of a feature I think the weather has kind of turned a little bit here it’s a bit bit more pleasant now um hopefully that that in those two next two home games we’ll be able to play our football and it should be a little bit easier less stressful in that regard um um but yeah that that to me is a big is I’m with you really it’s it’s it’s a real worry it’s a real worry because I mean you know he just looks hampered I I can’t put it any other any other way there was like zero zero at final third we we got from McGregor almost almost nothing in the final third we got you know we got a number of turnovers um and we got very little in terms of you know forward passing so that utility much finished yeah I mean as we always say single game um stats like XG or even um you know obv that kind of thing are are to be taken with a grain of salt um and you know there’s always issues with models and and error bars and all that type of stuff but again just contextually you know it’s about signal and noise so this this speaks to the obv profile for the game completely uh fits with your read of the game and and you know the eye test which was they left our center backs have the ball obviously right well for pass and dribble and carry obv which are kind of proxies for ball progression for defensive midfielders and and um center backs in particular scales was at 34 positive um that’s high Carter Vickers yep that’s really high um Carter Vickers was .27 uh McGregor was minus 03 com I’m combining the two between pass and and dribble and carry so that that just gives you an idea of of not only volume but you know and again just for a reminder for people that what what obv does is it subtracts off your score so to speak in uh if if you turn the ball over for example so it kind of Nets out your your total contribution in good and bad um so McGregor’s pass OB was actually negative for the game which for him is like I I can believe that you know I mean obv obv for those there’s a good exp stats bomb have made public uh an explainer video which is excellent and you should watch it um and there’s also an explainer vers um video for packing which I’ve and the reason I’m mentioning packing is because obv is almost if I dumb it right down obv is almost like packing but with XG as as the yes as the number is yeah is almost XG is it’s a currency yeah for obv everything is with with packing it’s a madeup currency like like crypto it doesn’t really exist with obv it’s actually XG but it and it relates to actions on the field and to what extent you add add to or subtract from depending on on whether you know your your teams kind of XG either plus or minus with packing is a is a literal score but it can be minus if you turn the ball over and you actually take your own players out of the game but the two things I don’t I’d love to do a proper correlation between them I suspect there’s quite a strong correlation because they’re Bas they’re based on similar principles same Concepts yep 100% I and and I think yeah you you my my sense is just in looking at what you’ve done and generally um some some broader pieces on packing and then uh with with the particularly the pass obv for for stats bomb that specifically um yeah I think you would you would find particularly in certain uh um positions as we say you know it’s it’s different for a a number 10 or you know Winger because they’re they’re much higher risk profile in their passing um so packing isn’t as big of an issue there it’s it’s you know chance creation and and um that type of it’s all relative to that population as well I mean the re the the reason I do it it’s not so I can compare um James Forest to I don’t know um rabie matondo necessarily it’s because I can compare James Forest to Luis Palmer right because that that’s that’s a currency that Celtic fans would understand it’s it’s internal benchmarking Celtic players essentially that was always what I was trying to do with Celtic that number sorry diverting down a bit of a rabbit hole but yeah these are these are interesting Concepts well and that’s just a revert back to um the the kind of put a pin in the the James Forest um conversation so one of things I’ve tried to do is is um through an attribution model conceptually is to think about okay well this is how the team’s performing what are the factors that drive that and then like what’s the share of each player’s contribution relative to the team and if you if you look at things through that prism um James Forest I would argue last kind of fully productive season and you know and obviously the 1920 season could wouldn’t be full because of of the pandemic but um his 1819 season if you kind of normalize things for overall team performance because that was a relatively low performing Celtic team in you know kind of the context of the last six or seven seasons um uh he basically measures right up with jota under an you know if you kind of normalize there was that team um created about 15% less chances and and and the quality of chances were also lower so it was just not as a well functioning attacking side um and there was a lot of reasons for that that we won’t I think most of our our listeners and viewers will be well aware of given the the aspects of what was going on that season um so again that just speaks to the the level with which of the quality and the performance levels that forest was at so even even a five or 10% diminished Forest um or you know and again this is the issue he’s not been fogged for 50 games this season so he’s a fresh any of the last two seasons well right yeah so he’s he’s a fresh 32 whereas you know some of our other players are carrying injuries as we’ve talked about or have played 4,000 minutes or 3,000 minutes whatever it is for the season guy like oi I mean the amount of minutes that he’s put into his legs this season I mean there’s just no way he can be as this fresh um uh Rel of to somebody like for so yeah I I think the the level of performance that we could get out of him relative to the peer group actually I I’m really bullish on him um even above and beyond you know the obvious uh recency bias of what he’s done in in the last couple of games um so anything else we’ll we’ll put a pin in the Dundee game as we um look forward um so H how are you how are you feeling about the title race then where where where is alen Morrison’s head at um as as as we look towards the last few games I’m optimistic so long as we don’t get beaten as beaten with an O not an e um he’s like a oneman wrecking ball that could derail the season um yeah so listen what three I mean if you if you take goal difference you know logically four points ahead almost um you know we need to we need to lose the Darby and then draw another game now that that isn’t that isn’t actually beyond the Realms okay I mean we’re not in a place as a team where we’re so coherent and so functionally on point at the moment or or have been any point during the season frankly where where where that is is unreasonable assertion that Celtic could lose a game and draw a game um having said that having watched both games on Sunday um I I think they’re in a worse worse State than we are frankly uh I thought that performance against St mirin was was abysmal from the point of view of I mean you know with Celtic you could see them trying to control the game you could see them trying to to Really impose themselves on the game then there was a I think we got I say undone a little bit by the elements and a little bit by smart play by by Dundee and then by a mainly by a tiring Midfield um really was was what done done for that and it was for a 15-minute period and then as Forest scored the second then pretty much controlled the last you know the last parts of the game whereas they were absolutely terrible from almost the first minute to the last um and you know so so in terms of relative strengths and maybe we can uh you know te you up a little bit for conversation on some of the ex expected points models that that are knocking about which now seem to be in Celtics favor I mean you know listen need to be careful with these things they’re you they might give you some emotional security or insecurity depending on which way they”re going been going against Celtic actually all season um I I I would do something very un unscientific and add in my my my expected points from honest mistakes model on top of the in which case you could make a case that Celtics should the league should be pretty much done now you know if if if you factored in honest mistakes and factored in the Celtic are three between three and four expected points based on XG models ahead you’re probably looking at a sort of six seven point margin at this stage which you think would be very difficult but anyway here we are in reality so I’m I’m listen I’m feeling good we’ve got three games out of four at home I mean that’s got to be in itself that’s got to be a an advantage um if if you know if we win I think Harts we obviously need to win that game and then if we get a draw against um even even a draw at home in the derby we just got to avoid defeat K which you know that’s that is the one that is the one that’s looming but you know two win win the next two games and I don’t see how we can lose it frankly um really yeah so it’s interesting I you know when when you get in you you mentioned expected points when you get into this kind of situation I’m going to go completely offbrand here um is when when the pressure cooker goes up and when you get into a relatively small small number of games that’s when the qualitative stuff in my mind becomes uh significantly more important to the point where it could become decisive and that’s why you make decisions like playing McGregor when he’s not fit because of that right well you could you might make that mistake right so that’s the hard part is how do you dial in between you know things like leadership and character versus you know the guys running around at 80% and you know what’s more important important so I I but you know when I when I look at the remaining fixtur so just you know you just look at the table I mean there’s basically two teams that have nothing to play for just generally conceptually yeah right and if you which of the of those teams if you’re going to think up something that are they going to be more incentivized to play versus us or Rangers well no it’s just this is this is again just from a cultural perspective from this is not like a match fixing ridiculous it’s just the human element yeah yeah right you know so if you’re gonna get up for one of the man the man the man the managers aren’t the players as much as Stephen asith would love it for Celtic not to win the league his players are their own they could give two craps right they may not right so that that’s you know it’s on on the margins right all the stuff’s on the margins so some of the players might already be at the beach mentally and you know that would be human for that to be the case because they don’t really have anything to play for um but on the margin if they’re going to get up for one of the remaining opponents it’s going to be us probably because of their managers versus uh and you know we do play karic at home at their home which again on the margin you might think would would have them more motivated um and you know the two teams that really have anything to play with for other than us and Rangers we just played one of them um and uh Rangers did two so there’s one left reach against that team and again how do you how do you match those things up um and you know I I don’t you know St Marin’s not going to be an easy game and and the way we’re because of where we’re at physically with you know the pressure cooker I and it’ll be interesting like I I I I you know all season long have um actually preferred us away and we’ve talked about that in the past just because of you know relative tactics um and I would like to think that our support would be a positive um but you know it’s only human in a title race as the pressure cooker gets turned up that you go a goal behind or you know what I mean like there’s that fine line between cheering on and trying to be a force for good to you know oh what’s going on here this is crap you know and and that mood turns and um it could become a a difficult thing for for um players to kind of you know operate with within so I I I when I look at so we do so just very quickly we do generate half half an XG per game more at home than away it’s 2.88 at home and it’s 2.3 something away so just I just throw that in yep yep um so and some of that’s because I think you know some you know this goes back to the conversation we had around the turn of the year that I think because we’ve been perceived to be relatively weaker that teams haven’t always come to Celtic Park in Bunker like there’s been quite a number of them that actually haven’t done that um but so I I when I take those kind of um qualitative aspects I actually think they skew against us on the margin um in the remaining games and you know um uh honest mistakes probably yep to complete that sorry just to complete that so I interrupt so we yeah we average 69 XG against at home but at 1.01 away so it’s quite a significant difference there really and I I’m not just dismissing what you’re saying all that I think the crowd recognize I would say the significance of the season in terms of what’s at stake the expanded Champions League I think they recognize the environment in terms of Rogers has really not been dealt a great hand and the club have probably not supported and not just you the club in the widest sense in terms of the recruitment efforts and so forth have not have not been there the injuries and so forth I think all of that and and the whole honest mistakes I I’d be astonished if the crowd were to turn in any way in those these key games to your point I I I I hope so I think so but again that that you think about what could happen right so yeah and that that’s not the big part of what I I think the bigger issue is the relative potential issue is the relative effort of the other remaining opponents um honest mistakes the risk and it or even just variants of bad calls that you know um could could break or you know not even bad calls just bad luck I mean we’re at the point now where one or two mistime tackles in the box that result in a could literally be how we drop that two points that creates the issue where the the Derby is like you know League determining you know that kind of thing um so even if it’s not due to a bad call if it’s just you know Carter Vickers has a brain fart I mean these things happen like you when you’re down to four games I mean these things can happen um so on on the margin I I I kind of tilt those things dis favorably but I I agree like the nuts and bolts of what going on I I I think we’re materially not not not only are we advantaged because of you know the three points and the five goals but um because I you know as you know I watch most if not all of their games and I I just I think they’re um really struggling and I I don’t understand what clemont’s trying to do that’s the other part like some of his selections and how he’s utilizing some of the players I mean it’s just you know they’ve had some significant injuries too I mean them losing SEMA is big deal like I don’t know um his time hring again yeah he’s haming think is he yeah yeah yeah so I think it was a tweak so there’s you know I think there’s some talk that they’re hoping he’ll be back I I I would correlate him more like MAA you know it’s the way that’s kind of played out so if their lineup is anything like what they put out against mirin with with Sterling and Silva as the wide attackers and winstrom anfield that I mean that’s balagan Sut and barisich I mean that’s yeah I I I I they’re mid you know back to this issue of Midfield their Midfield has been pretty Dreadful um in my view and uh Silva has been objectively bad like not only you know I deser gets a lot of the arrows um which I think is overstated I don’t think he’s been anywhere near as bad as the narrative um on him has been but Silva’s been objectively bad like I I have yet to see him now that’s not to say he’s not a talented guy he’s young all these other I mean there’s a you know theoretically a reason I mean has to be somewhat quality to to attract to the fees and the pedigree he comes from so it’s not that he can’t come up with moments of magic you know again we’re talking about four games so maybe he he gets hot here um but so far like I you know I he he’s been objectively terrible um and it’s and it’s it would be such a shame if it’s it is the case that they have to play in if he’s fit that would be so so unfortunate right but but at Wing too like if if you’re you know if I was going to play him it would be at the 10 spot like I the fact that they are using him out wide and then can’t well at the 10 I mean with lunch I mean I I was crestfallen to hear that you see you see the when when when you know really struggling to get any control in the game and you got Lindstrom and diandy right sat in front of the back four and then you’ve got canwell coming dropping 60 yards to pick the ball up off the center back thinking how does a manager how does he put up with that I mean some manager you know like an Alex Ferguson would you just have taking you you just literally gone on the pitch and drag dragged the ring his neck by his stupid hair you know what I mean that’s just it’s just criminal uh selfishness really well and long it continue well that’s I I was saying I was joking I I was I was crestfallen to see I mean you know barisich is what he is um but the the news that he and lungstrom apparently have signed contracts to go to Turkey I was hoping they’d sign lunstrum to an extension because to me he’s the prototypical um Mis uh attribution of what a defensive midfielder should be at Celtic or Ranger you know dominant domestic team like he’s just a complete donkey on the ball like you know he’s physical he’s reasonably athletic and can be pacy if he gets ahead you know builds up ahead of steam but he just clogs up their build I mean he’s but he’s undroppable like he keeps playing so I I would get great yeah well right right so my nightmare scenario is if I woke up and saw them play Sterling and damand next to each other in that and and and they could put you know somebody whether it’s Silva or Lauren somebody’s not um canwell at the number 10 then then I’d probably get more concerned but absolutely you know um and that’s they’ve really struggled to create chances and that continues to be the issue and I to me it’s largely an issue of their their Midfield and they’re not able to connect um from the you know ball progression quickly up through the backline um so yeah so I I generally I you know I think that that’s the the way clemont’s taken things with them you know has me pretty pretty confident even if it was like even like if it was a even up League i’ I’d be just just check the ODS by the way you’re you’re probably going to this better than I do but looking across a range of odds across a range of providers so this is to win the title so Celtic are generally in the sort of 9 to2 on 6 to one on 5 to one on 11 to 50 on uh they’re around the 7 to2 10 to three sort of space so that that seems like a pretty yeah and again with with with um with the number of games left in the lead and the Darby at home um yeah I mean we’re as we mentioned a couple weeks ago or even the show before that that we’re odds on now um so yeah I mean it’s it’s you know because you know he’s always looking to try and like what why what would be the boogeyman behind the corner and I I think you know some of those qualitative things that I mentioned um you know if I’m looking for something to be worried about those would probably be it um and you know you get down to any single game you know Darby’s or Derby’s I mean it’s who knows you get like I said one miss Time Tackle or what uh one or two bad calls or um an injury you know those kind of things I mean we’re getting so close now that um just kind of random stuff could be problematic but yeah you know I’m probably jinxing everything now because I’m usually the one that’s try trying to overcompensate but as we’ve said all season I mean I think hars have got a huge gap down to in third place I think they’re like solid they’re not going to I don’t think they yeah it’s like 11 secured it but yeah they’re pretty much there but actually as we’ve said all season um you know if you look at the underlying performance data you could make a case for kamaric being the third best team in the league you they probably shade it in terms of the underlying XG numbers just in terms of the underlying um you know chances created things like you know keeper saves XG per shot that kind of thing um you know hearts are like you know they’re they’re over overperforming to a small degree on the uh on their kind of um goals scored and they’re massively underperforming in terms of you know conceding way less than what their XG is against them so you know that’s been pretty consistent all season um and you know that that’s not to say that they don’t deserve to be up near the top of the league I mean they’re on a great run I think they’ve only lost to uh well they they lost the game to Ross County actually which is has become a real tricky away away game it seems um as well as the of of course actually getting taken apart at ibrs which is uh seems to be the the cultural norm um but you know listen it’ll be a tricky game like you say certain players and certainly their manager will be massively up for it in comparison to um other teams that they play but still you know they’re not they’re not the the force the league table suggests as I say I think Kar I still have a good shout for for being on on on by the data you know the third best team in the leag yeah that for and I’ve been saying this for weeks now but that that remains the single game that has me concerned the most not not only because of the to your point I think they are functionally the third best team and I want to use that and I’ll get back to why that is um in in the in the the league but the fact that we have to go to their pitch and um I think their tactics uh just inherently relative to their manager is probably problematic on a relative basis um but I I had done a deep dive on Shanklin just because he’s had such an unusual season and I was trying to B Benchmark some certain things and and I got some nice feedback from Hart’s supporters at the time this is going back maybe six weeks or something maybe two months ago um but but I’m I’m thrilled to because I basically what I was saying is that um his finishing has been unrealistically unsustainably good this season to his credit I mean he’s been br finishing um his decision I’ve got I’ve got him 21 this is op to data to be fair 21 League goals off of about just over 15 XG or something like that yeah it’s unsain right unsustainably high but um gloriously since the I March 11th their um their one nil victory over greck Morton um since then he’s had one goal um on you know you know a lot of shots because he shoots a lot um so that’s another thing like um he was due to cool off anyway I mean it was just unsustainable even really great players cannot finish at that rate over any significant like he was uh orders of magnitude better finishing than uh Messi over his you know what I mean like just not going to happen uh so it was a question of when not if that he kind of mean reverts even to a really good finisher like he’s been a good finisher over his career uh so it’s that like if you if you just normalize his season to being a really good finisher instead of like unsustainably insanely good they’re they probably finish um fourth in the league behind Kil Marik that I I was getting to the context of the conversation um so this goes back like particularly with him probably mean reverting or you know the chances of him not finishing great in the next four games are inly High um above and beyond all the other factors that we’ve talked about um you know that that brings me back to co Marik is the the the bogey the bogey man other than the Darby um so well we’ve rambled on for about an hour here um a little over an hour so make up for a little lost time since we were out for the week uh any any other last thoughts before we we we head into the the Hearts game on the weekend no I don’t think so no I think we’re good um yeah listen can’t wait Bring It On yeah I’m fortunately I’m going to be in the car during the game so I’ll I’ll probably have my wife drive and or ask her to drive not have her I mean there’s my neandra fall massaging coming out that’ll be a little bit I didn’t say let her I didn’t say let her drive that would have been the true old school way say we’re not ready yet dear another couple of weeks instruction we get some more instruction into you darling and I think you’ll be fine for the J yes I’m I’m going to politely we have a christening uh about three and a half hours driveway so probably be in the car and I will politely ask my wife if she will drive um uh so I can uh monitor the game on my phone probably but uh well we I think we’ll be back next week if if not for um a three-headed monster The Three Amigos um The Three Stooges how whatever you want to characterize it as I think Allan and I will definitely be back uh because Enda will hopefully be available to produce even if he can’t make the LI uh the recording um as always we appreciate uh those who listen or watch if you can subscribe like uh at YouTube or leave a review on any of the podcasts uh apps whether it’s Spotify uh Apple iTunes we appreciate it and uh we will talk to you next week