ISPS Handa Championship 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast

Episode 303 – Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, Paul Williams @GolfBetting and Barry O’Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf discuss their selections for this week’s ISPS Handa Championship.

#ISPSHANDAChampionship #PGATOUR #DFS #Golf​ #FantasyGolf #PGA​ #OneAndDone ​#draftkings

ISPS Handa Championship 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast
By Steve Bamford

SHOW INDEX
00:30 Intro
01:20 Dools from Australia Listener Review
04:50 Another Bamford 2nd Place
29:42 ISPS Handa Championship Tips Start

Golf Betting System Website: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/

Paul’s ISPS Handa Championship Betting Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/isps-handa-championship-tips-2024/

ISPS Handa Championship Form Table: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/isps-combi-stats-2024/

Steve Bamford X: @Bamfordgolf
Paul Williams X: @GolfBetting
Barry O’Hanrahan X: @AGoodTalkGolf

Golf Betting System Podcast:
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/id1234973013
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Oo0Ivfnq4QQPch9SlRP5V
Podbean: https://golfbettingsystem.podbean.com/
Podcast Addict: https://podcastaddict.com/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/2197395
Audioboom: https://audioboom.com/channels/4990651
Deezer: https://www.deezer.com/en/show/3353472

This podcast is for listeners of 18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit BeGambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.

if you li betting on
golf but everyone that you back misses
the cut get some experts
[Music]
involved with all the stats and the tips
and so much more cuz it’s the golf
beding system the golf beding system
it’s the golf beding system podcast
greetings and welcome to the golf B
system podcast it’s episode 303 this is
our 2024 isps hander Championship bets
pod Barry o hanran and Paul Williams
join me Steve bamper to discuss our
selection for this week’s returning DP
World Tour action good morning gentlemen
good morning guys morning guys visit our
world famous golf betting system website
where we have Paul’s in-depth betting
preview for the isps we’ve got player
form stats we’ve also got a specific
isps predictor model all of that content
is
available uh with no pay wall completely
free of charge on X follow Barry at a
good talk golf Paul is at golf betting I
am at Bamford
golf now you guys as listeners power
this podcast so we need your five star
reviews on Apple podcast as ever for
those of you who leave a review I will
read them out at the start of a future
show leave your name and where you are
in the
review now gentlemen we have a review
quite a rare one from
Australia it’s from a guy called
duels hi
DS um just to just to say by the way if
you are listening in Australia um keep
these reviews coming they help
apparently I didn’t know this but they
help with our chart positions so no
reviews our chart positions are very
very bad lots of reviews they go up so
please send in more festar reviews uh
this one is entitled nap time na nap
time five stars hi guys long time
listener love the podcast been a great
couple of weeks with nap and matu Arma
coming off well done Paul and Barry I
cashed out on Nap around round three
didn’t want the Sunday sweat but I can
see the swing Crush Barry has on him the
information and banter each week is
unmissable for me I never would have
backed Harmon at the open last year at
170 to1 on BET fair but all the stats
Steve mentioned led me to him looking
forward to next week’s episode please
keep the ruffest coming in as I like
taking top 20 and top 40 multis as well
as picking winners thank you very much
that’s DS and DS is in
Australia thanks DS nice
DS It’s been a long time since Jake nap
it feels like a whole winter has passed
yeah living on past glories Barry yeah I
know I know well have to I don’t know
moving forward from nap the Harmon thing
as well did we were you either of you
guys on Harmon at the open or was it no
so we just we gave all the information
to do the right thing and then
completely ignored it we we we talked
about him at the um on the on the pre
pod didn’t we cuz when we were recording
the pre pod he was he was playing well
um and his price was being decimated and
I remember I I certainly looked at it on
the on the Monday and thought Oh you
know before the start of the last event
he was I don’t know 300 to1 he’s now
down to 110 125 and um just couldn’t
stomach the price and that’s just
ludicrous when you look back no that’s
true yeah I remember
that I do remember that the other thing
with that was um we we kept High
lighting there was so much trouble off
the te there straight drivers were the
absolute key and I think he was just
ridiculously good on accuracy also
distance from the edge of Fairway y so
it all kind of came
together and if there’s one event where
you do get a major where you can get
some kind of long price winners the open
clearly is one of those specialized
events where that can happen and does
happen does happen
the shores have a chance at an
open you can’t say that at the Masters
can
you not really
no should we talk about the RBC
Heritage super
Scotty I’ve got some numbers
here
um now just to highlight I ended up with
sah tala at 28 to1 he drifted to 40 to1
before the event
so there’s people on sah with 4021
tickets I had Patrick cantlay and I had
sep Striker so I had it
surrounded and my my reson betra for all
of that was clearly players that win The
Masters don’t win the RPC
Heritage so Scotty didn’t even enter my
mind even though he was actually offered
up by a couple of firms first thing on
Monday at 9 to
two that’s
crazy so you could have had 9-2 Scotty
Sheffer now he was only inched out to 9
to2 at the
Masters on the Tuesday by people like
Ball Sports so that 9-2 price was
clearly the bookmakers saying we don’t
think Scott is going to win because
people that win The Masters they
certainly don’t win the RPC Heritage the
week
after so I went along the logic of
picking players that were in the top 20
in the world or elite
players uh who’d shown something good at
the Masters but hadn’t got involved in
the heat of battle and yes you had morar
up there yes you had oberg up there blah
blah blah but I don’t know if you
noticed on Sunday they actually went
backwards so to be fair I was bang on
the mark But what I didn’t account for
of course was Scotty
Sheffer
now Scotty became only the second player
to win The Masters in the RBC Heritage
in backto back weeks joining wait for it
Bernard Langer in
1985 these are the kind of trends that
Scotty Sheffer is breaking at the
moment he became the first player to win
a major and win on tour the week
following since tiger woods’ 06 he won
the PGA then he won the WGC Bridge Acron
the week after it’s amazing how these
Sports administrators have always played
with the schedule when you look back at
these
things just to throw in by the way
before someone shouts this out Jack
Nicholas did win The Masters and the RBC
Heritage even though it wasn’t called
the RBC Heritage back in
1975 but the Windam Championship was
held the week uh in between so he didn’t
win it in consecutive weeks now just to
actually validate what Scott is just up
to at the moment let’s let’s have a look
at this that’s his 10th win since the
start of of the
2021-22 season now he’s the first player
to win 10 or more times on the PJ tour
in the span of three seasons since
Dustin Johnson won 10 titles between
1516 and
1718 Scotty now becomes the fourth
player with multiple four- win Seasons
since the start of 2000 joining Phil
Michelson with two VJ sing with three
and Tiger Woods with 10
he becomes the third player and this is
the fifth instance in the last 30 years
to win or finish runner up in five
consecutive starts on
tour so win he’s had a win a win a
second a win and a win right Woods did
it three times in his career the only
other player to do it VJ sing in
2004 so these are the kind of heights
that Scotty Sheffer is
scaling at the moment it’s incredible
really yeah and I just thought his whole
performance was made up of what happened
on the 15th hole when they were playing
it virtually in the dark because the PJ
tour administrators even though I noted
it on Monday morning in the UK sitting
at my desk oh it might be some trouble
on Sunday they got weather coming in
they might have to pull the two times
forward no oh no won’t do that so we’ll
have a three and a half hour delay
there he’s playing in the he’s playing
in the virtual dark uh he lays up on the
half 5 15 he hits it in the water and I
just think this was Prime Scotty Sheffer
he’s sitting there fourth
shot bangs it onto the green uses the
Contours of the green the ball just
starts curving down towards the hole
leaves him 11f footer and he Nails it
doesn’t even make
bogey mat Scotty
Sheffer yeah
there was even a little fist
pump oh he knew he knew it was that was
the moment he kind of he he saw the
shoelaces were open and went oh not
going to get me here just closes them up
all sorted no problem there were there
were a lot of people saying that the
decision to go off is gener go off at
the same time and not go off early is
generally made by the TV contracts they
try to maximize so you know
pragmatically you’d go off early and
everybody get finish at the right
time um but it did make for some good
drama in the dark so what did they fill
the what did they fill the 3 hours with
then on prime time TV when there was no
play they were show I think they were
shown the LPGA here the
Chevron so and I jumped off and watched
the movie I knew they weren’t coming
back for a while so
yeah yeah well we can’t control the
weather but I I think you can be a
little bit more sensible about these
things it doesn’t help anyone if the
they have to go back and play an hour
the following morning that’s for just
just for the sake of trying to preserve
T it’s a very good point I remember
Tiger Woods winning the Masters a few
years ago and they had to go off early
to avoid the weather and I don’t
remember anyone having a conversation 5
years later saying oh dear I didn’t
really enjoy that because they people
don’t even
remember yeah it it finished about 4:00
over here in the UK
that particular year it was very early
yeah felt like it been that evening it
felt like been robbed but then you got
to watch it all
so yeah yeah um just just to sort of
shore this
up uh this is me in 2024 Bradley second
55 to1 phaki second 100 to1 Harmon
second 66 to1 Camy young second 22 to1
Sheffer second 3 to1 brought down but of
course by stared down by Stephan jger
Taylor Moore second 70 to1 and igala
second 28
to1 so that’s my
2024 yeah I you’re knocking on the door
Steve it’s great week KN on the door
ultimately three to get to get three of
your five in the paining places was an
excellent week so so so well done for
that um you can’t account for someone
like Scotty just mopping up every week
and
you know if he hadn’t missed that seven
footer in Houston then he’d have won
five on the spin which is just just
incredible and the comparisons to Tiger
are Justified when uh when you you read
them when you hear about them you look
at the world rankings and yeah you know
understand the the contention with that
but he’s more than double the world
ranking points than Rory in number two
you
know there’s massive light between him
and everyone else at the moment and
that’s evident when you when you see him
um very very very strong at the moment
giving everyone a chance isn’t he for by
hopefully going off and you know happily
having his uh having his first born over
the next couple of weeks and give us all
a chance to take a breather and
potentially get another a different
winner on the
board you just needs to do it for
another 10 years or so to get close to
Tiger all these comparisons early but
right right now what he’s doing is very
tiger esque because I’ve I’ve when tiger
was doing his thing it kind
of I was able to admire it I did admire
it but I never loved it so much because
it kind of kills the competition and
excitement of golf and that’s kind of
what sheffer’s I’m getting the same vibe
from Sheffer when I’m watching kind of
it’s like I know the end like I’ve said
it before I know the end of the movie I
mean still make still enjoyable to watch
but the suspense and the excitement has
taken is just tampered a little bit yeah
um and so you have to kind of have to
rejig my brain to enjoy it in a
different way which is just to go all in
on admiring what Sheffer is doing to
everybody just incrementally being
better than everybody at almost
everything in the game and he doesn’t
even need the putter to be top drawer so
all I want to see is somebody stand up
to him and properly and make him have
that like doubt himself a little bit or
put him under extreme pressure for a put
yep the only case of that which you H
said before the Pod poll was that putt
that he missed to get into the playoff
against Jer mhm the rest of the time
there’s been no absolute moment of
pressure where he had to make a shot yep
he’s just been able to cruise along and
the the the birdies just arrive when
they
arrive so hopefully somebody I for
whatever reason all we want to see is
somebody just go up against them and
just see what happens when it’s three
four or a whole back nine of just hay
makers at each other and see see what
happens from there yeah who who would
you who would you like to see him
head-to-head with at someone somewhere
like the PGA Championship in a few weeks
team I’d love to see a prime Brooks
kepka and Scotty Sheffer go at it down
the back nine that’ll be good but like
do you really need to ask who I want to
see going up against
chefer yeah it’s Rory who what would
make the best TV you know you want a big
name don’t you going head tohe with him
totally it’s Rory Rory is the one that
everybody that you want to see doing it
Brooks would be amazing but Rory’s the
one that would
get that extra level of excitement y
yeah yes because there’d be an
assumption that he could actually do it
he could
actually come out the back and could
beat him yeah but if Brooks was there I
just think that Brooks could do it as
for p p pure
excitement pure excitement everybody
like losing their minds
Rory
so I’m sure in a few weeks time you’ll
be telling us it’s wacky nean he’ll be
staring him down he disappointed me so
much at a Masters my
god well you know what they say Barry
this this is a great segue you know what
they say just because someone lets you
down one week you shouldn’t just discard
them now I tweeted the other week that
Billy hell was my latest addition to the
Post-it note of
Doom and that got that quite got a
veritable response on X it has to be
said said how can you do that to Billy
or people
agreeing so I’ve got a question here
from Matthew Holly thank you Matthew for
your email late on Sunday
evening I would love you to address on
the poll if you’ve ever had a Post-It
note designated player win the very
first tournament after said
designation thanks
Matt so I’m just going down the list
let’s verify the list Ben AR well he’s
never
won Austin cook don’t really know why
I’ve picked on Austin cook he barely
plays on the tour anymore but anyway
he’s on the list emilano
gleo Russell Henley
Billy
Hall Luke list Patrick Rogers I loved
Patrick Rogers doing Patrick Rogers
things on Sunday oh just for the record
I did dig this out this morning because
you know how anly retened I am Patrick
re Rogers has now gone
259 PGA t a starts no
Victory and people wonder why he’s on
the post in not of
Doom I’ve got Adam Scott in Majors I
mean if still got the door a jar there
for Adam scottt in non- Majors that’s
scary and Brendan
Todd uh Matthew in answer to your
question I don’t think I can ever recall
putting nominating placing somebody on
the Post-it note of Doom they then go
out and win the next
tournament don’t remember
that now Barry I know you complet out
agreement when I put Billy HW on the
posted not Doom how how how do we feel
about his 20 to1 victory at the at the
corales punana championship last week I
think a jury of 12 all 12 would have
convicted Billy and he was definitely
deserving of being on the post at note
based on what he’d done to you he’d like
obviously emotionally traumatized
you
financially golf traumatized me every
single week bar it’s not just Billy or
believe
me I’ve never known a sport that
traumatize you in a million different
ways the thing the thing I’m most
intrigued about like Billy’s win is
great but I’m most intrigued about what
we can use your new level of powers for
Steve can we tweak them into a way to to
to get every us and all the listeners
winning like massive bets like get a
group win so and then one final talk
before we actually talk about Billy’s
win um for a moment do we have to
comment
continue I actually back myself into a
corner I’ve
forgotten the pressure yeah the pressure
yeah they’ll come back to me as as Billy
um thanked you personally Steve for your
addition freeing him up to to go go
forward and win the ordinary on X he
said does Billy does Billy Ho get taken
off the Post-it note of Doom if he gets
it done today does he get taken off
so clearly he had won at that
point um I don’t I’m not
sure I don’t know what to
do I don’t really want to um take him
off no I can see you him up in a DP
World Tour event that he Jets over to
later in the season Steve I see I can
see you thoring on Billy he does pick
his he does pick his way around
Wentworth particularly well doesn’t he
just about to say it yeah I could
definitely see him getting a um like a a
month a week of release from post at not
jail to to play W it yeah you know these
opposite alternate events it’s like a
Minefield isn’t it you you know for
every Billy Hall at 20 to1 you get a
Bryce Garnet who’s barely been able to
sort of put his put his um golf shoes on
for a couple of years before they win at
150 to one it’s all over the place one
thing I will point out eight of the last
17 opposite field event winners have
been in the top
14 of my Strokes gain total ranking the
week they won and the price is 12 to1
that was hland all the way back 33:1 20
to1 20 to1 40 to1 25 to1 33 to1 20 to1 I
think what that says to Steve
is in the cold light of day I need to
rethink what I do on those opposite
events and literally pick a couple go
for one at the very very top that 20 25
to1 Mark that you’re really absolutely
100% keen on that fits all of the stats
that you’re looking for and just throw
in a 50 to one or 80 to one or someone
at a bigger price that you could see
doing a Bryce garet you know Mr pass
barem all of a sudden the magic fingers
come and he’s holding 80 foot Parts cuz
he’s on pasum greens and that kind of
thing cuz he actually look at last year
here 25 to1 Matt Wallace 33 to1 Vincent
Norman we were on him that week 40 to1
AE Bara and 20 to1 Billy
orall for the last five 25 33 40 and 20
to1 now I believe Paul you put your hand
up and you said you’re going to do the
next alternate opposite event yeah I was
at the Myrtle Beach or something isn’t
it so yes yeah yeah we we we we’ll divy
that week cup Steve and I’ll have a I’ll
have a little go at it have a little
Cameo on the uh PJ tour although a lot
of the field tends to be it tends to be
a mix of DP world and PJ tour so there
will be some some quite well-known to me
players in the field as well so yeah
looking forward to that should be a good
one to get my teeth
into last question I’ll throw this at
Barry since his mind dump Billy HW
winning in corales do you do you count
that as a as a proper p J to a
victory oh my God
it if I
have it’s such a trap I can’t if I say
it either way you under the bus no I
mean look in the the way the way the
system is now it’s a win it’s a PJ tour
Victory yes there were a whole bunch of
the top guys off playing in um Hilton
Head but it’s a
win does he get the does do does that
one come with all the
no all the exemptions or is like half
exemptions it’s half so that doesn’t get
him into the
Masters does get him into does get him
into the
century yeah okay and of course it adds
to his um it adds to his exemption um I
think I think he gets an additional year
in advance of what he already had just
to give Billy hallw rather praise rather
than stick that was his eighth pga2 a
victory
that’s an exceptional career it’s not
bad is it it re it really is you compare
Billy Hall and what assets Billy Hall
has as a player and you compare that to
a whole list of what you would classify
as bigger names that have got nowhere
near that amount of P to of
Victories you can’t fluke eight wins can
you
no no how many’s Ricky got nowhere near
that isn’t oh Paul five
five he has five yes oh no he hasn’t
he’s got
six so Fowler’s got six hor got the
Scottish is it the Scottish open that
gets Fowler to six was
this uh the one he had last year got him
to six so Sor grass PJ National there’s
a quail in there there’s a TPC
Boston there’s a phoenix and then he had
the one last week last year we were on
in Detroit that was the six
yeah uh another one up there just a you
know kind of name that you’d throw in
there Lucas
Glover so that’s a comparison with Billy
glov has got six over a long far longer
career I know he’s got a major in there
the US
Open but
yeah I don’t know with Billy do you know
what he’s the kind of player not that
we’re going to talk about it this week
because we’re not getting involved Billy
is the kind of player that would drag a
partner along for the ride and actually
go go very close to winning this week as
well I mean he seems like he’ just be
fun to get on with on the
course if he’s not doing that you
know the mad like losing his minding but
he’s going to be in a really good mental
space so for a team event you could just
see yourself having a lot of fun with
them and just freewheeling it
yeah yeah Steve I remembered I
remembered what I uh brain farted on I
wanted to say I I didn’t think you had
an awful a lot of High Flyers on your
post at note and I was wondering can we
get I trap you into committing to
somebody in like I I was going to say
top 20 but you have Russell Henley there
but like I don’t think that’s a really
um risky po risky Post-It note it’s a
very personal Post-It note no this is
this is created by endless years of
backing players and literally having
those players stand in front of you
and justicul gesticulate nasty gestures
at you and basically take your wallet
and Rob money from you so it’s a very
personal thing one thing I will say is I
do think that potentially we should do a
poit note podcast and I have floated
this and got some very positive
responses where we could
ask uh the listeners to nominate players
that they would like added to the Post
didn’t know and go through things that
way I mean they could even throw stories
at us about their list of players who
are on their Post-It note of doing yeah
because clearly it’s a very
individualistic thing I mean Paul you
know we know who Paul’s going to tip up
most weeks don’t we because we know that
he’s got his favorites and we know that
he hasn’t got his favorites on the DP
world
to now I can think of a particular
Frenchman that if he actually you know
makes a cut puls tipping him up the next
week at 500 to one
or Matt everyy you know it’s a very
personal thing isn’t it who who you put
into into your betting slips every
week de Steve Steve in the just to get
you back for trapping me on Billy’s win
no win last week will you consider or
will you put Xander chaffle on the post
at not of June oh
question I did kind of say last week on
the podcast that Xander is the kind of
person that when you back him and you
watch him at a major he’s absolute
garbage on the first nine holes he’s
absolute garbage on the back nine holes
and in the middle he’s okay and he gets
himself into a kind of each-way paying
position you always get the Fe the
trouble with Xander is clearly
statistically he pays out a lot on the
eways so you’re never getting great
prices on him
yeah do we ever see him falling over the
line and winning a major well it’s golf
isn’t it you know someone
might you know I don’t know Scotty might
hurt his back like DJ did that year at
the Masters
and but yeah he’s not on the Post-it
note of Doom yet no hey hey Steve I
think this is like you know he should be
there I mean Billy Billy hell’s by wins
a better golfer than Xander Xander has
seven seven and Billy has eight and one
of xand one of xanders is in the zerk
classic New Orleans so that’s a team
event so does that really count 69
mate we’re going completely off piece
here I do apologize listen but these are
the kind of conversations we constantly
have they do count they all count I’m
afraid yeah I mean D Davis Riley he’s a
PJ to a winner and Nick Hardy because
they won it last year didn’t they the
team event I’m just trying to find here
Billy Hall’s got as a
partner um I tell you there’s a team
that I do like the look of sahit dalala
and will zalatoris the reason I like
that team clearly zalatoris can’t p
igala camper and I’ve been chasing
tiga’s next win on the PJ t for a long
long
time and it would be sod’s law that he
wins this at 10 to one the week that I
haven’t even covered the
event but
anyway I think he’s playing oh he’s
playing with a guy called Tyson
Alexander so I’m not so keen on
that doesn’t fill me with much he’s he’s
trolling you there like there’s theander
name right there it’s in alander
so he’s just like teasing Xander like
I’m better than you so I’m just going to
play with somebody who’s got your
name let’s move on we’ve actually got
some uh tournament to cover on the DP
World Tour they they kind of come out of
their
midseason do they have like a is it like
the Premier League or the Scottish
League in football they have a month off
over the winter because it gets too cold
and players need a rest for their 600
Grand a week yeah just have like a
mid-season sabatical for for three or
notic they’re playing two weeks now and
then they’ve got a few more weeks off
hav they it’s it’s it’s a bizarre
schedule this year isn’t it last week we
should have had the um should have been
over in Korea shouldn’t we which is I
understand why they’ve done that they’ve
re re rebranded it rebadged it and
pushed it till later in the season so
it’s part of the um kind of the run in
for the DP World Tour um I think where
it sits now it’s likely to be the last
full field event uh
before we go into these you know so in
terms of people retaining their cards
Etc it’s going to be one of the one of
the important ones at the back end but
but yeah that ended up leaving the blank
week yeah last week which um so they
were going to do South Korea Japan and
China in a 3-week stretch which makes
clearly masses of sense so we’ve now got
Japan this week the isps hander
Championship which we had last year
Lucas Herber won it and then next week
we return to we have the DP World Tour
hasn’t been in China for I mean clearly
with Co and whatever for a long long
time so we’ve actually got a half decent
stretch here so let me hand over to you
the isps Handa Championship
poll yes yeah it’s nice to get get back
into some action isn’t it um yeah
co-sanctioned Affair this one’s with the
um the CH the Japanese tour of course
next week it’ll be with the Chinese tour
you just mentioned that we played this
last year we did it was the U the kind
of the inaugural isps Handa championship
last year on a different course so um
for all intents and purposes this week
again it’s virtually a blank canvas in
that respect we’re playing the Taio Club
in
gember which if you look on the map is
just to the southwest of Tokyo more in
the course in a minutes full field 156
players this week led by Christian buut
and Matthew pav both at 14 to1 k
Nakajima who’s been fantastically
popular in the betting over the last 24
hours or so 16 to1 T Tumi Kay 20 to1 uh
Jordan Smith
22s Sebastian Soderberg Yanick Paul both
28 to1 Tom McKibben 33 to1 40 to1 bar
there those players so it quickly thin
out and there are some juicy prices a
little bit further down the field but a
lot of the AC a lot of the betting
action so far has been centered around
both Nakajima and Kaya um who are two
very popular local players this week
there are some extended places out there
Ball Sports are eight each way 150 odds
a standard this week do check out bet
365 and bet Fred both of them have eight
Place each way 1 fifth of of the odds
options available too so um lots of
options out there if you’re going to
have a bet on each way bet this week to
make sure you’re maximizing your
places now the course the gber course
it’s a
7,262 yard pass 70 it had a Rees Jones
renovation back in
2018 um now he worked alongside hii
matama who was Consulting on that and
they turned this course from what used
to be an easy or relatively easy par 72
into what is now a tough par 70 Parkland
in style treelined stunning views take a
look at some of the pictures stunning
views of Mount Fuji in the background
and it’s setting the uh the uh Hillside
effectively it’s around about 1,500 ft
of elevation see getting a
small uh impact in terms of altitude not
massive but but um it certainly is just
worth mentioning anyway well bunkered
water imply a number of the holes
particularly around the greens um the
greens are protected by a number of
runoff areas as well this is where they
toughened the course up to to a large
degree on and around the greens fast
greens as well up to 13 on the stimp
Apparently um and there’s certainly a
bit of a challenge for those players who
are missing the
greens uh this week just a couple of par
fivs so um they converted two of the par
fivs um or two of the previous four par
fivs to par fours long par fours as part
of the renovation both of them over 500
yards these par fours now so scoring
isn’t particularly easy around these
place or around this particular course
that said um looking at the forecast and
uh this was I first looked at this maybe
Wednesday last week and it suggested
that Wednesday so tomorrow day before
the tournament starts was likely to see
um well over an inch of rain it doesn’t
look quite as bad as that but we may get
up to an inch of rain
tomorrow um so that’s going to soften
the course up for Thursday and I can see
virtually no wind sunny skies Thursday
and Friday so these players could be
turning up at a course that’s just
received an absolute Ding and then
playing on a virtually windless course
and so it could well be more SC scorable
than than the course is certainly
intended to be Saturday’s forecast is
worsened actually since I wrote my
preview yesterday um it looks like
there’s more rain possible potentially
some quite heavy rain on on Saturday and
then there’s another calm dry day on
Sunday to well to hopefully complete the
event hopefully Saturday is not a wash
out if it’s um if it is particularly wet
it be nice to get it done on Sunday and
then we can crack on with the
the Chinese tournament next week now it
is a new course to the DP World Tour and
we do have some history here as the Taio
Masters has been played here every year
going back to
1977 so um it depends how far you want
to kind of go back um in terms of
relevance because it’s evident that um
around about 2/3 of the field here
haven’t played the event before so
there’s a danger that if you do a
massive analysis on this then you could
end up with just a a list of names that
are all local Japanese players because
they’ve all got good good experience
good results on the course but let’s I
give you a flavor of some of the winners
because there are some recognizable
names in there um in recent years 2015
was shingo katama 2016 Hideki matsi Yama
now mat yama’s won this twice he won
here as an amateur um originally then
won this again in
2016 uh 2017 Satoshi kadus Barry one of
your favorite
players or not as the he on your posted
note of do Barry satosi Kadar no no
because I’m not willing to pay your
license fees to use Post-it notes but
he’s on he’s on my ex list he’s not
getting Christmas cards for me no well
unless he wins this week Baran you could
have a sneaky couple of quid on him what
prices this week satosi 125s I think
they might have been even longer out
there F you I was looking at them
Redemption Arc for
satosi got a sweet spot for but anyway
Satoshi won this in 2017 Tumi Kaya won
this in 2019 when he was an amateur um
so again you can see why he’s been
popular this
week um on the betting 2022 Rio Ishikawa
won this he won this for the third time
Rio is
and again he’s available at a a
reasonably juicy eway price this week so
someone with some decent course form um
you could go a lot further wrong than
Rio isikawa this week um but if you go
back and look at the winning scores that
some of these players you can see the
difference the renovation made because
hi’s win back in 2016 that was a 23
underp for comparison ishikawa’s win two
years ago 2022 eight under pass a 15
shot difference and I couldn’t see a
discernable difference in terms of the
conditions going into that it’s purely
down to the way that they’ve set up the
course of course they’ve chopped it down
from a 72 to a 70 so that’s going going
to have an impact in the winning scores
anyway but the work they’ve done on and
around the greens to make it trickier
these runoff areas pwns around the
greens heavy bunkering there’s a lot
lots of challenges should you be missing
the uh passing surfaces this week now we
do have some basic stats for some of the
more recent results on the Japan tour so
we have got a a few clues for this week
there is some consistency as well in
terms of the way that players have
performed here uh there’s a fair mix of
driving distances I wouldn’t get overly
hung up with that and of course we’re
talking about a little bit of altitude
7,200 yard course it shouldn’t really
alienate any of the players although
that said the rain on Wednesday could
well soften and lengthen the course a
little
bit I think for me if you look through
the stats the winners here tend to excel
both in greens and regulation and
scrambling it’s really consistent there
G given that we’ve got no Strokes gain
data to to go back on here I think if
you’re going to start your analysis this
week with two numbers with two
statistics jir scrambling would be the
ones that I’d start with the ones that I
did start with and um I think that’s
become even more in sharp Focus since
the renovations here since the 2018
renewals so um looking at last year’s
winner Shugo Imahara he won here in the
Autumn um 47 for driving distance
average just 272 off the te fourth for
greens and regulation first for
scrambling so that is your template play
I think although I think you would you
we will see a mix of different players
in terms of length of the tea those that
hit greens those that scramble well are
going to be the ones that uh that
gravitate to the top for reference Shugo
Imahara he shot 12 under par so it’s
kind of in that technical bracket I
think I wonder if it will get a little
bit deeper this week because of the uh
the
conditions um yeah it gives us a
starting point there’s not a great deal
more we can go on because we haven’t got
any Strokes game data of course as I
said run about two-thirds of the field
of making the debut here we do have last
year but that was on a completely
different course and I I struggle to see
how you know massively relevant that
will be I I I can see some logic in
looking at the results and players who
played well in Japan last year and and
of course a lot of the Japanese courses
are relatively similar in terms of their
composition but
yeah for all intents and purposes it’s a
new new new course A new challenge for
us um I think it may well play a little
bit longer because of this weather
that’s coming in but um yeah don’t know
we’ll see and I have been relatively
cautious I’ve only backed four this week
I’ve got a couple at the top and then
I’ll bring you guys in see where you’re
pitching
your pitching your team this week um of
the two at the top Matthew pavon and
Christen beden hoot I’ve back the South
African beden who it’s 14 to1 win only
this week now for me there’s always a
danger and we’ve talked about this um ad
nauseum with DP World Tour events where
players dropping in class coming down
from the PJ tour jet into these events
and just walk away with the title casing
point last year Lucas Herber he played
the RBC Heritage um he made it through
the group stage of the WGC match play
before that played the RBC Heritage um
63rd so didn’t uh didn’t pull up any
trees he won this at 20 to1 last year at
PGM isoka so the other course that they
played um and that it happens it happens
quite regularly and you’ve got to be
wary these players coming in who are
undoubtedly a level above most of the
rest of the field Herbert was 59th in
the world at the time M Wen Who
currently 58th so some some happy
correlation there massive incentive for
him to win here of course sneak inside
that top 50 um I don’t see him qualified
for any of the majors right now um of
course he should get into the PGA
Championship because they tend to push
that through to the top 100 but of
course he’s got the US Open and the Open
Championship coming up so he’ll need to
make sure that he’s in the right
position world ranking wise to make sure
he gets into that so there’s incentive
there and of course it’s just returning
back to the DP World Tour where he’s um
previously won he’s previously won three
events and I’m sure he’d like to add
another win to his uh repertoire as soon
as he can those three wins actually I
think there’s some relevance there valer
armor back in
2090 tight tricky course of course he
won that by six leopard Creek 2020 he um
won that by four shots and again leopard
Creek is no pushover nowadays and then
he won at Sun City in 2020 also that was
by five shots so um these three events
he won the scoring didn’t get out
control in any of them and he absolutely
lapped the field each time I think when
he’s on it bwen who can absolutely lap
the field he can he can just walk away
with these um these kind of tournaments
and he’s playing some decent staff
second at the American Express at the
start of the year on the PGA tour 13th
at Sor grass Ninth at the Val Spar
compared to most of uh the field here
this week that’s a level above I think
14th on the PJ for scrambling in terms
of how he performs on or around the
greens I think that’s ideal coming into
this so um the player to win Christian
beden Hood 14 to1 for me another one who
I’ve backed relatively short
prices I did look at neimer of course I
looked at Kaya both um both temped him
both coming in off wins on their
previous start um canay as I mentioned
earlier is one on the course as well
Nakajima has um a third place Place
finish here so there’s course form this
current form I can see why they’ve both
been backed heavily the one I have
backed though is Yanik Paul now 33 to1
was out there early yesterday which I
grabbed 25 to1 there’s a little bit of
28 right right now but I think that’s
fair um for a player who was W in the
Ridder cup conversation last year until
he’s back when he had a few back issues
form dropped off a little bit missed out
on the rider cup just missed out a PJ
tour car twoo so um looking to make
amends this year and it seems to be
heading towards some decent form seems
to be peing I think statistically for
the season 14th Tia green seventh for
strokes G approach fifth for Greens in
regulation which is a key stat 26th for
scrambling for the full season last year
I think Yanik Paul’s got all of the raw
materials for this um one in muor that
was a relatively I I think that’s a
similar ass Simon he won that a 15 under
on what is not ordinarily a tricky
course and I think that’s not going to
be dissimilar to what we see this week
couple of early season top 10 10th last
time out in
India sixth at the um PGM isoku in this
event last year I think Yanik Paul has
got a proper live chance here this week
now my other two are both longer around
about the three figures or thereabouts
so let’s bring you boys in see if you’ve
got any interest in this one now I know
Barry you you you’re not overly keen on
betting on the DP wel or is there is
there anyone this week that’s has caught
your eye uh we got there I talk a big
game but I’m really weak I was on um
just I was on bazen last week and I have
just ditched him I thought he was plain
average but all all your logic Works
quite well for him just to drop down a
level and both race the whole event just
just sheffler them but
out out there so but I’m I’m not
touching that um because he took my
money last week Barry he did close with
a 66 65 shot six under 65 to finish I
thought that fantastic did he earn did
he earn me money no he’s a
failure um St straa got straa finished
nicely actually yesterday and kind of
snuck into a chop of the places yeah
could I set
sep’s my boy um where are we I’ve played
with the predictor a little bit there um
and I like the sounds of Frederick
laqua yep he is banging it far off the
tea this year and has uh some excellent
driving accuracy in Greens the
regulation he has been putting like well
putting putting terribly like Sheffer
before Rory told him to go get a mallet
so so I’m kind of hoping that all merges
and he has a good pudding week keeps
keeps the long game in check and has a
good puding week and I found him at 50
to1 with seven
places yeah and I’m going to you you’ve
talked me into Kad as well Kad yeah
there’s not there’s not much current
form there but for a CO
winner at a juicy three figure price um
stranger things have
happened maybe did laac on your radar at
all no not really um e excellent
yeah no I I I struggle to look past the
current form but yeah you you can see
any of these players that have got some
you know the there’s undoubtedly an
advantage to having played the course
and to having performed well or one on
the course in the pass and it’s
difficult to argue against it it’s like
an Isa cow bet you know if someone said
you know the guy’s won three times here
why why shouldn’t I bet him at um you
know whatever the price is um then yeah
difficult to to argue that you shouldn’t
do that really but yeah no each for
their own Barry I’ll I I’m Lo I’m lost
at the moment because there’s weeks I’m
going into tournaments with bets and
well all of the things are lining up for
this to be a good bet there you know
odds are good incoming form you know
statistical reasons and and kind of
style of game that they play and
strengths and you put the bed on and
they just do nothing so I’m kind of I
having to like shake up the system and
just go a little bit try go a little bit
off the Beaten Track why not Barry mix
it up mix it up what about you Steve any
any I
got got one at 70 to one one at 100 to
one and one 175 to one right okay go for
it I’ve got a player here
his wins on the European tour have come
at 13 under and 12
under he’s also got two wins where they
used to play actual uh match play so
four wins in total on the DP World
Tour has played golf at WGC level very
well has had a couple of decent years in
in the
States now if you’re looking for back
class this guy’s got it he’s also got
lots of experience in Japan when he used
to play there before spreading his we
wings out of
Asia he comes in with
second 37th and third in his last three
tournaments kirek aib
barrat 70 to1 I got eight places each
way with bet Fred bet Fred are doing
their pick your
place promotion this week on the DP
World Tour he can get up to eight places
at a 50 odds so I thought I’d take that
yeah one thing I’ve learned with kirc
and you look at his career once he finds
it and he he can clearly he’s coming off
a huge career
slump but when he finds form he’s one of
those guys that keeps it together
yep and 14th for Greens in regulation
last time out at the Saudi Open which
was that a
PGA event that they played a few was it
last week or couple of weeks ago last
week yeah yeah last week another John
Catlin mopping up
exercise so I’m on
Kira who’s clearly just trying to find
status on tours to try and
rebuild um my next Triple digit so did
have you gone through your triple digits
yeah or do you want to go through yours
um yeah don’t mind wouldn’t you do one
I’ll do one and then we’ll we’ll do
another one up when we’re in Japan
there’s only one player I always turn to
in
Japan Uncle Shawn Norris got to love him
six wins on the Japan golf
tour 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021
two masses and masses and masses of
experience in Japan the the South
African he’s had a sixth and a second
last time out when he played that was at
the Johnson workware I believe yep yep
which was a DP World Tour co- sanction
event you were on him I believe indeed
some crazy
price yeah yeah I’m I’m almost starting
to regret not backing him this
weekday he’s got he’s got form on this
very course of six third and
second and yesterday
Monday I picked him up at 100 to one
with bet Fred eight places each way that
to me is a complete and out no brain of
bed yes so 70 to1 Affy barrat I’ve got
100 to1 sha Norris and I’ll keep my 175
to one tip under wraps for a few minutes
keep your powder dry yeah Norris is him
Ash and woo the kind of players that
I’ve been backing recently bound to come
and bite me on the backside but yeah
I’ve I’ve um I’ve veered away from that
and the other two off bats at three well
was three fig priz howong Lee 100 to one
yesterday he’s been nibbled into 90s but
again I still think that’s fair and I
think if you whisper it quietly there
might be a little bit of consistency
creeping into the game of how Tong Lee
um he hasn’t missed a cut all year which
is very unhal Tong Lee like some really
Sparky rounds in there as well if you
look through his um his form this year
14th D Dubai Invitational seventh the
Dubai Desert Classic of course that is
Rolex series level he was first round
leader there is uh it was first round
leader also Macau last month of the
Asian tour and then 17th last week in
Saudi he was third going into Sunday
there was absolutely no catching John
Catlin who um has been ter ing the place
up since I backed him and he did nothing
a few weeks ago and he’s just uh he’s
just mopping up every week since it
would seem over in the Asian tour but
yeah 17th last week for howong Lee um
and seems to be striking the ball well I
we know what you can do around the
greens we know he can do on the greens
and when he’s playing well he just makes
some obscene putts and you know that’s
kind of his game but Strokes going off
the te for the season 35th which
surprised me not bad for a player who
can be wild from off the tea sixth on
tour for strokes gain
approach um surprising but a very
encouraging stat I think back in howong
Le is likely to be a bit of a roller
coaster but um I’m going to buckle up
100 to
one see where it you know within four
holes won’t you Paul it’ll be either
three under or three over well yeah but
then it could be three over and then
then back to level PA three thr hours
later that’s kind of how he rolls so
yeah yeah it’s not not for the
faint-hearted howon Le but there’s
there’s enough of um enough of a spark
in his game I think to suggest we could
get a run for our money there the other
one I’ve backed is Kazuma gabori at 125
to1 I don’t know a massive amount about
him one of these um young
potential Superstars there’s enough hype
about him to suggest that we do have a
superstar in the making here so make a
note of the name um it would be lovely
to snare a win on a player like that
who’s um still coming through the ranks
but has that bit of spark that uh that
could suggest he goes a long long way of
the game born in Japan moved to New
Zealand as a younger he won the New
Zealand PGA Championship as a 17y old
turned professional last November has
won three times already since turning
professional in November all of them on
the Aussie tour um he’s wrapped up his
DP World Tour for next year for 2025
courtesy of those performances on the
Australian tour even before the tour’s
finished so he knows he’s playing DP
World Tour from November next year now
of course winning this week would mean
that he doesn’t have to wait until
November he can jump straight onto the
tour should he should he grab his card
immediately um don’t know massive amount
about his game seems to be a good
allrounder from what I can see um 125
to1 I’ll take a chance on him um Kazumi
kabor Kazuma Kori rather so that’s Kori
howong Lee Yanik Paul Christian bwen
Hood at the top for me just four this
week who’s your 175 to one shot then Ste
um I’m going to absolutely murer the
pronunciation of his name go for
it don’t worry about that I’ve never
worried about that over 303 show so I’m
not going to start now Jun W Co oh yeah
yeah
yeah Jung Wan Co yeah you know your
typical French
name I remember watching um I remember
watching the anderia Masters in nove
October last year and he was right near
the top of the
leaderboard yeah didn’t know anything
about him but I was very very impr
eventually finished
seventh and it’s just noticeable
recently he’s clearly playing on the DP
will tour for the second
year uh ninth in
Kenya and last time out at the Indian
open very very impressive finished
fifth and he was fourth for total
driving and third for ball striking MH
I’ve picked him up I think he’s going to
be a very talented sort I’ve picked him
up
175 to1 with bet Fred eight places each
way Jun Wong Co yeah yeah can see that
can see that finished Ninth at in Kenya
as well which has got a little bit of
altitude to it so potentially some some
correlation with that as well Clos with
a 64 that week for for a late rally into
the top 10
I take it co will be a future or could
be a future Rider cup star for us I mean
if this guy R Rises through the ranks I
know he’s very well thought
after and clearly has a French pass
ball there you
go we should so yeah ay barrat I’m going
very International this week I mean we
are in Japan Affy barnrat sha
Norris the Old South African plotter and
Jun won Co
those are my three
fantastic then we’re all done we’re
cooked unless unless you’ve got another
one Barry to throw into the mix stop me
now because I’ll just start plucking
names at Big
[Laughter]
prices what are you suggested Barry’s
done Barry’s cooked he’s
done he’s looking forward to the Byron
Nelson next week you want an event where
you can pluck some names out good
God that’s had KH Lee win two of the
last three year
[Music]
right I hope your bets go well gentlemen
yeah best of luck boys you too Boys best
of luck to listeners we will be back
next week for I believe Bu The F Volvo
China open it is and we’ve got a new
sponsor of the Byron Nelson the
CJ group so there you go so it’s going
to be a South Korean sponsored event in
Texas it all makes total sense when you
think think about
it the newly rechristened the CJ cup
Byron Nelson is our PJ to our action
next week I hope your bets go well we’ll
see you again next week
[Music]
goodbye but everyone that you’re back
misses the cut get some experts
[Music]
involved with all the stats and the tips
and so much more cuz it’s the golf
beding system the golf beding system
it’s the golf beding
system podcast