Brad Thomas and Denny Carter break down all the odds entering the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and explain how the team stroke play format affects betting strategy. #GolfChannel #PGATour
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Ludvig Åberg, Will Zalatoris highlight RBC Heritage best bets | Going For The Green | Golf Channel
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welcome to going for the green and it’s
time to party in New Orleans for the Zur
classic I’m Brad Thomas here with Denny
Carter and we’re going to break down our
favorite bets and plays for this event
uh we’re traveling to TPC Louisiana but
before we get into the event Denny I
want to say I am absolutely sick and
tired of betting on golf tournaments and
Scotty sheffler wins and my guy finishes
in second but the good news is no Scotty
sheffler for this event how you feeling
about theurge classic I mean we we’ll
see someone else win you know and this
is the only the only way we can
guarantee that Scotty Sheffer is not
going to win is if he’s not in the field
and if he’s in the field we just have to
assume at this point that he’s going to
easily win as he did last week at
Harbortown it it’s kind of routine by
now but I think we have to appreciate
greatness where we see it uh we we
haven’t seen many runs like this it’s
looking more and more tiger esque as we
go along here yeah last week was
impressive by Scotty sheffler an off
first round uh books had him at 14 to1
um by Friday morning I got a stab at 10
to1 but let’s talk about this week’s
tournament uh we’re playing at TPC
Louisiana um I want to go over the
format really fast uh so Thursday’s
fourball Friday forums then the cut
Saturday fourball and then Sunday forums
let’s STP let’s start the top of the
board I actually am skipping all of the
short prices it’s not necessarily
because I don’t think guys like Xander
shley and Patrick Klay can win or Rory
malroy and Shane Lowry don’t have good
team chemistry I just think that in an
event like this and there’s a guy not
named Scotty shuffer in the field we
have an opportunity to kind of take
stabs elsewhere but I know from a DFS uh
perspective it’s a little different than
the outright board so I’m gon start off
uh and ask you where are you going in
the favorite Market yeah well obviously
uh Xander and Klay are the the top price
on DraftKings uh Lowry and maoy are
right under them I I I really I think
it’s trending toward Xander and Klay
being massive chalk here and that makes
sense because they’re a really good team
and by chalk I mean High rostered okay
so if you want to get away from that in
a vol and by the way this is a volatile
event okay these team events are very
volatile you can play that to your
advantage if you want to get away from
that massive roster ship and go and dip
down to Lowry and and mooy the Irish
team uh I think that that’s a good move
we have Lowry really like ripping the
cover off the ball lately uh ball
striking over the past 16 rounds Shane
Lowry is second in this field Rory is
13th now Lowry has been a disaster on
the greens last week he was dead last at
Harbortown uh in Strokes gained around
the greens um but Rory has been is top
15 in this field in Strokes gained
around the greens I’m sorry on the green
uh over the past 16 rounds what I’m
saying is Lowry might be able to to
remain terrible on the greens and this
team could still score because Rory
could get it done that’s the Hope anyway
yeah I I initially had a wager on Mal
Rory Lowry pairing um with the thought
process that where where Rory’s really
been struggling this year has been with
his wedges and Low’s just one of the
best wedge players and now we get low a
little bit closer to the greens I think
this is course is only around uh 17 7200
yards 7400 excuse me par 72 um I
actually like I said skipped the top of
the board and I went straight to Tom
hogi and Maverick MC but I’m gonna say
this Denny if I weren’t a true
degenerate I probably would not be
betting this tournament because I’m a
guy who likes to build models it’s very
hard to build a model in a tournament
that has Twan teams but there’s a couple
things that I liked um this is
definitely going to be a second Shot
Golf Course so you have guys like Tom
hogi who’s just an elite second shot guy
and then you have a Maverick MCN who’s a
great putter so if in the alternate shot
format if Tom hogi can you know hit the
iron shot and Maverick NE is putting the
the birdie putt then it works out but
when I was doing some digging this
actually kind of surprised me um I went
and looked at The Strokes gain metrics
for the last 30 six rounds and I
filtered it highest to lowest I was
figuring to see Tom hogi somewhere in
that bottom half he was actually in the
top third which means even if it’s Tom
hogi putting I feel kind of confident we
don’t talk about I said I’m not going to
talk about models a lot but there’s
something to note combined Strokes
gained average between all of the
contestants in this their pairing is
number one for strokes game approach
second short Shot Golf Course you want
to be strong on approach absolutely yeah
yeah and mcne is uh not only good on the
greens he’s good around the greens when
you combine Strokes gained around the
green and putting MCN is eighth best in
this field this season it’s not a it’s
not a spot where hogi has traditionally
succeeded at least at a high level which
means basically Brad that this team
complements each other right and so hogi
can get there from Tia green I mean he’s
he’s been a very stable DFS option uh
he’s he’s a guy you can you can plug in
you know he’s going to make the cut you
know he’s going to get gain Strokes on a
he’s done it in every single event this
year going back to January he’s going to
do it again here McNeely can bring that
around the game game and and eventually
I think deliver for for this uh to some
I I will say I don’t I don’t think that
this team has a ton of upside but I do
think that for DFS purposes I think that
you can again get them in there uh and
and you know get a guy get a pair that
is going to compete into the
weekend yeah um so I saw that you were
on them in in DFS as well um I’m just
going to Pivot straight over to the
second group I want to talk about that’s
the team Canadian the the other team
Canada and that’s going to be um Nick
Taylor and Adam hadwin the interesting
thing about looking at pricing for uh
betting I don’t know if it changes that
much in DFS so I’ll have to get your
take on it when I when I finish here is
that on Monday Monday’s price is not
going to be Tuesday’s price it’s not
gonna be Wednesday’s price and certainly
not gonna be Thursday’s price this is
one of the hottest names in the betting
board what I mean by that is their price
is plummeting I was able to find Nick
Taylor and Adam hadwin at 30 to1 I know
that price was much higher before but uh
the Canadian connection they’re all
business on the golf course um what’s
interesting or what’s kind of scary to
talk about when you talk about thege
Classic held in New Orleans are the guys
who use this week kind of like an off
week you know they go out there they hit
Bourbon Street you know they they stay
out a little late they get away from
their families in party time and they
come out to the course it’s hard to flip
that switch this team runner up last
year is all business what I love about
them and they’re both playing really
good golf and this going to be my motto
for this uh for this little segment is
they’re great second shot golfers yes
absolutely and I I think that we have to
incorporate into our betting and DFS
models guys who are not likely to go out
on Bourbon Street you know I think that
that is one key factor here I don’t I
don’t know what to say I don’t you know
I I don’t know these guys habits but I
that does seem the Canadian guys seem
like all business all the time so I do
like that all right so uh go ahead and
tell me what you like about team upan
here I see there’s 7,800 on DraftKings
yeah uh Kevin Yu and CT pan you know I’m
a little nervous about this but I had to
dip a little bit low here to give the
folks some salary relief because a lot
of the best obviously the best pairs on
DraftKings are going to be very high
priced you’re going to have to make some
difficult choices here I think you and
pan are uh is a very stable tucum here
Kevin Yu is fourth best in this field in
Strokes gained ball striking over the
past three months he’s gained Strokes uh
off the tea in eight of his nine events
uh this year CT pan meanwhile is 20th in
uh approach and he’s been very good from
the 150 to 175 yard range which is an
important bucket he’s 10th best in this
field from that range and like you said
Brad this is a second Shot Golf Course
and there there are not many groups in
this tournament this week that are
better than pan and you as far his
approach goes especially from inside of
200 Hey listen uh every year we see
there’s some smaller priced guys that
find their way kind of in the top 10 top
five right now you can get you and pan
to finish top 10 at plus 550 or 12 to1
to finish top five thought that was an
interesting price on them at 75 to1 I
don’t I don’t hate betting them I didn’t
go that deep um in the like the the the
underdog Market the long shot Market I I
kind of stopped at a group that I
thought had legitimate chance to win and
that’s Taylor Moore Matthew nce Smith um
at 50 to one it’s funny because if you
look at a model and this happens week in
and week out with Taylor Moore even in
his win when you look at a model he’s
not really a guy that’s gonna be like
hey I need to I need a bet on him
because he’s exploding in this category
or he does all of this great but I think
his game is just so well-rounded which
makes him a good compliment to n Smith
who is an absolute striker of the ball
great second shot golfer so in the
alternate alternate shot format I think
that Taylor Moore’s uh completeness or
the roundness of his game will allow for
n Smith to be a little bit more
aggressive because Taylor Moore will be
able to clean up some up and downs um
for for any Wayward shots and I think
that aggression pays off when we’re
looking at these high price guys you got
to really think about what’s your risk
versus reward especially in the outright
Market does this I have an absolute
chance to win 50 to one’s not that far
off um before we close I want to get
your thoughts on this group because I
didn’t know if I was going crazy in
betting this or is it a price that’s a
little palatable so uh you know just to
add to what you’re saying about Taylor
Moore not really popping in any one
category and I I looked at his profile
and doing research for the show and you
know nothing jumped out but then I look
and I see Strokes gain total okay across
the board he’s top 10 okay and he has an
elite short game over the past 16 rounds
no one in this field has been better
around the greens than Taylor Moore so
you’re right that is an important factor
to consider going into this one Matt
neith not going to blow anyone away
around the greens okay we’re not talking
about seie bios here but we are talking
about a Taylor a guy in Taylor Moore who
can get it done in that critical area
and N Smith can just let it rip from te
to green and that that’s the sort of a a
compliment that you’re looking for when
you’re looking for a team that can you
know get into the top 10 maybe even
challenge for the win come Sunday well
we’re talking about teams here and team
events this is a team event here I think
that we gave out some good information
um as a team and hopefully we can
collectively win some people some money
whether that be in DFS or betting but
make sure to check out nbcsports.com for
more help with all of your Wagers thank
you everyone for tuning in for Denny
Carter I’m Brad Thomas take care
