Set your reminders for the sports betting shows every week (all times Eastern):
Sunday 9pm – PGA Initial Research
Monday 9pm – PGA Data Dive
Wednesday 9pm – PGA DFS Tactics
Friday 9pm – Friday Night Chill Stream
Friday Night Chill Stream content will vary so stop by and hang out! Like someone once said “It’s like a box of chocolates…you’ll never know what you’re gonna get.”
Follow me on Social Media where my betting cards for the PGA tournament of the week will be placed:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Kapta1NKahl
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/Kapta1NKahl
Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/kapta1nkahl
Kick: https://kick.com/kapta1nkahl
Subscribe to Gabe’s weekly article for a great beginning to your weekly research and give him a follow over at Twitter @glzisk
hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to
calls calls this is the 2024 RBC
Heritage data dive show got a fun show
for you all we’re going to dig into all
of the data for everything harbort toown
and the RBC Heritage players in the
field this week historical performances
and some weather forecast to get us
prepared to optimize our lineups for
Wednesday night and to finalize any
Wagers that we have made I certainly
fired off a couple of names at some at
some prices that I liked um so and I
also put uh some research out earlier
today over on social media and I will
cover some of that towards the end of
the show but a fun show for you all I’m
excited let’s get into it all statistics
provided tonight and every night are
from fantasy national.com it is the best
golf Analytics tool out there for your
money it’s going to make you a much
smarter golf Gambler and a much better
golf DFS best player go check out
fantasy national.com you will not regret
it in the description to the video there
are links to all of the social media
first off my ex in Instagram where as I
alluded to I put some research out today
around the previous champions of the RBC
Heritage at harbort toown and the
players who fit that criteria so if you
want to see the weekly research that I
do on the PJ tour then give me a follow
at your preferred social media site X is
also where I place my weekly betting
cards and top player usage in the DFS
contests I play that comes out every
Wednesday evening after the DFS tactics
show and then lastly for social media
gab’s handle is in the description he
writes a very good article called The
Fringe it’s a great way to start your
week of preparation and he continues to
update you throughout the week with his
own version of course history recent
form and all of that and if you’re a
subscriber to his article you’re going
to be able to join us in his substack
chat every Wednesday evening as we
continue the DFS talk after calls calls
we talk about Game Theory our favorite
plays 6K plays favorite part of the
price board who were fading uh wor
worriedly fading perhaps so all of that
if you want to uh be in on that
conversation the only way you’re going
to be able to be a part of that is if
you are a subscriber to his article it
is free to do by the way and then lastly
we are Live Chat is open want to hear
from you all have you fired off any way
for the RBC Heritage uh I was pretty
close on Scotty’s odds about 3 and 1
half to one I said 3 to one last night
uh the pricing came out are you
surprised Scotty Sheffer is at 13,000
with no 5K plays this week uh nobody in
the 5000’s price range so uh using
Scotty sheffler looks to be pretty
prohibitive uh so if you thought about
what you’re going to do for that how do
you think RBC or how do you think
harbort toown and the RB BC Heritage is
going to play this week so would love to
hear from you all so let’s dig into the
weeds of the data for the 2024 RBC
Heritage and we start as we always do on
a Monday night as soon as I get this
camera centered over at the windfinder
extended forecast and I say extended as
the super forecast only goes out a
couple of days so we’ll definitely have
a more detailed view come Wednesday
night but for our purposes doesn’t look
like a whole lot in terms of wind you
see Thursday looks fairly calm maybe a
little bit of gusts toward the end of
the day and then Friday uh maybe maybe
some late uh rain showers but nothing
too uh extraordinary in terms of
wind um good evening Tony thanks for
jumping in chat good to see you uh
hopefully your Masters went well um you
had a few futures or even just a flat
out outright on Scotty sheffler um he
was my pick to win but I was not going
to uh wager him at at 4 and a half to
one or whatever he was um tried to beat
him but used plenty of plenty of him in
DFS to a to a middling result
considering I was not on the rest of the
top five essentially hopefully your
Masters went well and we are ready for
the next signature event the RBC
Heritage um and and then you know
Saturday and Sunday Sunday looks like
the wind could pick up towards the end
of the day so we’ll keep an eye on this
but you know as of right now I don’t see
too much in uh in terms of wind that
would um Force us to to perhaps look at
some wind filters uh which is all well
and good it gives us a chance to just
look some more at uh Harbor Town
specifically so there’s a look at the
forecast at least the extended forecast
as of now you know two and a half days
uh out from the tournament we move to
Fantasy National and let’s do a couple
of quick Recaps here we noticed that um
last night in the historic conditions
that harbort toown generally plays to
about average in terms of difficulty I
don’t see that changing uh it will get
difficult if the wind picks
up but I didn’t see that in the forecast
so so I’m thinking it’s just going to
play to to about average level
difficulty especially since there’s no
cut this year with it being a signature
event so instead let’s take a look at a
couple of um filters that we we know
we’re going to be able to use or or look
at the first being short courses as even
though in the gcsaa tournament fact
sheet it listed
7,213 yards even so
harbort toown has always always always
played less than
7200 so until I see otherwise even with
the unofficial scorecard yardage I’m
going to assume it’s less than 7200
yards third place in round four Showdown
but other than that nothing well hey you
know um maybe maybe that um got you back
to even if not you at least ACR uh or or
wasn’t a total loss so so you mitigated
some loes with that so well done well
done there you must have had probably
Tom Kim um trying to think who else went
crazy low on Sunday Terrell Hatton maybe
Showdown is something that I have
certainly dabbled in uh and some of
those shows were fairly popular it’s
just it’s really really tough on my
schedule to try and do a week’s shows
weeks worth of shows and then still prep
for a for a
showdown um stream or Showdown show uh
It’s just tough for me but if there is
enough interest from you know multiple
members of the community I will try to
work that back into the schedule but but
well done on your on your Podium finish
in round four Showdown well done with
that so the first filter we’re going to
look at let’s look at some short courses
here in the past two years on short
courses um 30 you know 36 rounds or two
years
our top performers are Eric Cole Xander
Scotty Russell Henley Keegan ludvic obar
Patrick kley Justin Thomas JT Poston and
Brian Harmon are our top 10 in terms of
short course performance you will note
that throughout this evening the Masters
has been loaded into fantasy National
and you can see Scotty’s just ridiculous
form nothing outside of a top 10 the
past couple of months I mean the GU is
just dominant right now um but anyway so
there’s a look at some short course
filters this is a Pete diey design
except for maybe TPC Saw Grass probably
one of his more famous
designs um so we can absolutely look
absolutely look at Pete diey designs so
in the past two years on those Pete Dy
designs your top performers are Xander
Scotty Brian Harmon Sun Jay wendam Clark
Jordan spe Matt Fitzpatrick Justin
Thomas Patrick Klay and JT Poston um
it’s always good to note you know Jordan
spe your winner two years ago Matt
Fitzpatrick your defending Champion
Patrick Klay has played very very well
here also at harbort toown so perhaps
give these guys a slight boost in your
considerations for Wagers or lineups
considering they typically play Pete die
designs very well
nothing to do with difficulty I don’t I
just don’t like using the average
scoring relative to par and we went uh
or we checked windfinder at the
beginning of the show didn’t see
anything with with moderate or windy
conditions the only other change that I
have for you all uh is Victor perie he
did not withdraw per se he is he did not
qualify he was uh on the border of being
in the Aon swing five I think is what
they call it and he got beat
out so he is in corales or at the
corales this week so um technically
speaking Victor perie is is is no longer
in the field for the RBC Heritage that
brings us to two players that are not
playing Victor havin and Victor perie
there have been several uh sponsor
exemptions Gary Woodland web Simpson
Kevin kizner Eric Van royan
and there’s one
more and I don’t want to go through the
entire list here
um maybe Grayson Murray I know there are
five sponsor exemptions I know those
four Woodland Simpson Kevin kizner Eric
Van royan and one other uh Shane Lowry I
think it actually might be um was the
sponsor
exemption so there’s a look at uh your
best performers on Short Court courses
on Pete die
courses um let’s go ahead and just jump
straight
into um some of these prior
leaderboards and this is where dang it I
want 2024 not 2023
stupid come
on um this is where I am going to look
at the camera and say after doing some
research today I was pretty pretty
incorrect on a a couple of things from
last night that I kind of harped on
throughout the show last night uh so
let’s go ahead and start talking about
uh the biggest one that I was just
clearly wrong on when we look at these
prior leaderboards from RBC Heritage in
Harbor toown in the
past off the te does seem to play a a
pretty decent factor and I I kept
mentioning last night that I didn’t see
off the te playing too much of a factor
considering distance just is not a big
deal here at all now accuracy is for
sure but Pete Dy much much more known
for uh iron uh or emphasizing iron play
uh Harbor toown in itself has very small
green so we took a look at around the
green and some putting but going through
these historical leaderboards and then
digging into the data behind them and
and I will show you that data later on
in Microsoft Excel I have to admit I was
just just wrong um off the te does look
like it will play a decent Factor So
speaking of here are your top 18 from
last year’s RBC Heritage and again not a
whole lot of big numbers in off the te
but what you will notice is that only
two players were negative in terms of
off the tea the same amount as in
approach several players negative in
around the green and and a few players
negative in putting again some of these
numbers might not be so might not be
very large but other than JT poston’s
miscut here look at the performance if
you sort on this off the leaderboard if
you will couple of top 10 a third a
middling from Colin top 15 another
middling a top 10 a top five some more
good finishes right underneath JT poon’s
miscut off the te was pretty darn solid
last year
in terms of correlation Now Matt
Fitzpatrick our winner quite a bit
lower uh he wasn’t particularly great in
off the te but he was still positive he
just did so much much more so in the
irons I believe he led the field or
maybe was top three or four in terms of
irons well okay he was a little bit
little bit lower John ROM went crazy
with the irons Xander look at the look
at the irons especially up here at the
top top 15 top five a runner up top 15 a
middling from Tony fale top five winner
so irons are definitely going to be the
emphasis this week no doubt about it but
I do have to give aaya culpa on the off
the tea around the green a little bit
surprising to me in terms of how little
uh at least in terms of correlation it
played now you do have much bigger
numbers M much larger overall numbers in
here you know you’re close to a six a
couple of five and 1 halfs and a couple
of fives whereas the leader the leader
in off the te was only a 4 and 1/2 so
there was much more to be gained around
the green but it wasn’t nearly as
correlating you can see several miscuts
towards the bottom of your screen here I
mean several miscuts um you know you
have a a Max mcgrey 63rd up here couple
of more you know more middling finishes
than Elite say Denny McCarthy’s top 25
Justin Rose a top 25 more middlings so
around the green will play a little bit
but not nearly as much as I was thinking
it would last night considering this the
the lack of the size of these greens and
off the tea will definitely be a factor
and then putting uh if you’re making
putts generally you’re going to be
rising on the leaderboard but you see
other than you know maybe Jordan Speed
Patrick cley and maybe se tala you know
these are all middling type middling to
to pretty poor finishes tether more s
burns up here as top 15s but you don’t
have the direct correlation that you did
here like you did with the irons so much
much much more so an approach based
tournament and we saw that in the in the
course breakdown with you know our top
10 and top fives and winners
consistently throughout the leaderboard
T FES and winners the approach outweigh
the the
putting uh if we look at 2022 just just
very very quickly a lot more of the same
a lot more of the same a few more
players negative in terms of off the te
but look at their numbers -210 negative
– 1/10 now Tommy and Harold Varner they
were much more you know pretty bad that
week at off the tea but still just a lot
of players that were performing well
maybe maybe not necessarily Elite but
well off the tea again the leaders were
at 4 and A2 third first a middling for
Brian Harmon this time our winner was
fourth in terms of off the tea JT Poston
was excellent off the te Eric Van royan
and so on uh iron play pretty pretty
darn solid second third third some
middlings because they didn’t have very
good putting weeks our winner was still
very high in the in the uh irons he’s
going to lead in around the green that’s
or be very close to uh around the green
because that’s that’s what Jordan spe is
but also again a a missed cut second in
around the green a very very poor made
cut from our around the green leader and
you know 56 from Luke Donald uh good
evening bro Baran good to see you in
chat glad to to see you again uh
hopefully you uh put in a little bit of
work on uh on some research today around
the RBC Heritage maybe you fired off
some wag
um and as I was uh mentioning uh I owed
the community Amaya culpa the off the
tea is going to play a decent factor and
we’re in the midst of talking about the
Different Strokes gained for the RBC
Heritage the off the tea even though I
was mentioning last night that I didn’t
think it would play a big factor after
digging into these prior leaderboards
we’ll get dig into the data in Microsoft
Excel I was simply wrong about that uh
and I’ll give you the reasoning behind
um why I say that you’re around the
green not going to play as big of a
factor as I thought and then putting if
you’re making putts you’re generally
going to rise but for putting this is
not you know very good
correlation you know our winner pretty
far down actually might have been
negative in terms of putting yeah minus
two and a half and still one as just
telling you the emphasis on the irons
now Jordan spe was very good around the
green two years ago but he was also
great off the tea as well so all that
long-winded explanation is to say that
um it was it was an error uh on my part
to not look at off the tea and and not a
mistake I’m going to do again so we’ll
look at it a couple of different ways
first off we’ll just look at straight
2024 with no filters just however
they’ve performed in this calendar year
our top off the te players in the field
this week Scotty Rory Xander seu Kim
Alejandro toasty ludvic obar Chris Kirk
sahit tala Cameron young and wendam
Clark are our top 10 in terms of just
straight off the tea performance where
the way I’m thinking about uh
approaching this is to take a look at
off the tea on short courses Pete Dy
does
reward
um ball play
uh you have to be in the right spots uh
and talking about a lot of accuracy so
let me just let me remove all these
filters and then I’ll come back to the
short course filter so in the last two
years or 36 rounds whichever a player
hits first your top off the tea players
on short courses Cory Connor ludvic obar
Cam Davis who’s played exceptionally
well here at the RBC Heritage sunjay
Scotty K morawa cam young SIU Kim
Russell Henley and Stephan joerger our
top 10 Again Victor hin has withdrawn
and if you didn’t see at the beginning
of the show brarian uh Victor perie is
also not in the field this week for the
RBC Heritage uh it’s not necessarily
that he withdrew he did not qualify he
was on the border of what they call the
Aon swing five um ended up getting beat
out of his spot so he is in he is at the
Coralis this week so those are the two
players to make a note of um that are
not in the field this week for the RBC
Heritage but that’s the way I’m leaning
at least right now on a Monday evening
when thinking about off the t is is
thinking about accuracy but not
necessarily Fairways gained you have to
hit certain spots um and Pete D is
notorious for that that sometimes
sometimes it’s actually preferable to be
in the rough as long as you are on the
correct side of the rough say maybe the
right just to give an example maybe
you’re in the right rough instead of the
left Fairway because you can be blocked
out uh if you’re on the left side of the
Fairway just a just an odd example there
but um really rewarding spots and I
think I think that is where where a lot
of this off the te is coming into
play all
right in
2024 our top approach players in the
field this week no no other filters no
short course just just flat out Strokes
gained approach Tom
hogy uh let’s scroll down for you there
you go Tom hogi Scotty both or tied for
number one Cory Connors Lucas Glover
Tony fenale Shane Lowry Austin ekro o
baa Nick Taylor and Justin Thomas are
our top 10 in terms of Strokes gain
approach in the 2024 season we’ll look
at around the green McKenzie Hughes
Scotty Sheffer Lucas Glover Xander
Brendan Todd seu Kim J day Denny
McCarthy Adam shank and Taylor Moore are
our top 10 in terms of around the green
now last night I thought this was going
to have a pretty significant um factor
in the mixed condition model considering
these greens are small greens are hard
to hit so players are going to have to
rely on their around the green I’m
probably going to have it still in the
mixed condition model but much more so
into the in terms of maybe 5% instead of
10 to
15% uh is how I’m thinking about it on
uh on this Monday evening knowing that I
have a couple of days to think about it
and process and then make the mixed
condition model then lastly I will bring
in the courses that are poet triv Dallas
so we’ll start with alphabetical order
harbort toown where we are this week
inisbrook the host of the
valpar we need Memorial Park the host of
the uh Texas Children Houston
open um Quil Hollow host of the Wells
Fargo um The Stadium Course which is the
host course of the American Express
uh
TPC San
Antonio TPC
SASS and TBC Scottdale so let’s apply
those course filters these are all the
courses that are
consistent on the PGA tour that have
Bermuda base poet trivialis
overseed uh another course that you
might want to think about if you can
access the specific data to it the match
play uh whenever the Dell match play uh
was a part of the PJ tour schedule
Austin Country Club also had Bermuda
base poet trivialis overseed so if you
were able to uh glean any data and
insight on some specific putting
performance there you could add it to
this list as well but on the courses
that
are uh consistent on the PJ tour your
top performers on poet trivialis
overseed have been Brian Harmon Brenan
Todd Sam Burns Windam Clark actually I
apologize I need to bring this out to
the last two years I I don’t want to go
too far back so in the last two years
yeah slightly different here we go my
apologies let’s try that again in the
past two years or 36 rounds on poet
trivialis overseed our top Putters have
been Brendan Todd Brian Harman Matt
Fitzpatrick wendam Clark Jason day Sam
Burns Thomas dietry Denny McCarthy Nick
Taylor and Tommy Fleetwood but again
pting didn’t seem to have too big of an
emphasis when we looked at the prior
leaderboards so I wouldn’t put too much
of an emphasis on that but we will be
absolutely looking at a little bit of
poet trivialis putting uh this week
since we know we’re on poet trivialis
okay uh let’s get this set for Fairways
and green
I’m going to tell you right now a lot of
this if I use a filter is going to be
looking at Short Course so I’m just
going to go ahead and add that um and
get it prepared let’s look at some
driving greens Fairways and whatnot and
again off the tea surprisingly to me uh
much more of a factor than I gave it
credit for we look at last year’s
leaderboard quite a few players positive
in driving
distance I don’t know how much I really
want to put in into that because there
are a lot of forced layups around
harbort
toown I think it’s more so in the off
the te but really and this is why I’m
looking at off the tea and not just
Fairways look at how many players were
negative in terms of
Fairways and yet still top
15 so not where I’m looking it would be
in The Greens at least based on last
year several several players only two
players negative in terms of green
gained if we sort on each particular um
gosh dang it each metric again a lot of
players were positive in distance but
not necessarily to the point where
there’s a lot of direct correlation you
have a 51st a 41st a 63rd very high in
driving distance 59th it can help but
that’s why I’m just kind of going with
the generic off the tea as opposed to
isolating any distance cuz it definitely
didn’t play a Factor last year and it
definitely wasn’t Fairways I mean look
your leader in Fairways game missed the
cut uh 54th from Zack Johnson 41st 59th
so nothing
specifically whether that’s distance or
the
fairways is what’s contributing to the
off it’s just kind of all of it put
together however what I can say is that
the greens pretty pretty big big factor
top 20 top 10 you know pretty bad
performance from Victor havland top five
a middling from col Mor Kawa top 15 top
five top 10 top 15 top 15 top 15 pretty
solid in terms of greens uh these greens
are not easy to hit so if you are
hitting them you are gaining quite a bit
on the other players just like you would
have been at the Masters last
week we look at
2022 and Fairways and greens again even
though the leader was negative in
distance you know a pretty solid run
here of of players who are positive in
driving distance I’m not going to single
it out cuz I just again with all the
force layups that are around here I
don’t like the idea of looking at
distance but it’s definitely not the
fairways look how many players are
negative in
Fairways quite a few players you know
negative in in Greens but negative a
half negative a half negative a half
really only one player was terrible in
the greens gam it was Troy
Merritt so if we sort again pretty darn
solid second third top 15 middling you
know fairly middling a pretty bad
performance from Jim Herman but our
winner was high up here Poston was
third so it’s looking like it’s the
greens is is the long story behind
behind all that so our top
performers in Greens
gained on short courses the past couple
of
years Scotty Colin orava Cory Connor
Rory Russell Henley JT Poston Xander oay
batia Shane Lowry and Adams vincon those
are your top 10 in terms of greens
gained on short courses and I think
that’s about the only thing I’m going to
look at on this page view we saw that
Fairways just aren’t a big deal you
could argue good drives sure um so if we
want to look at good drives Russell
Henley and Mora Kawa SEIU Cory Connor
Sheffer batia Glover Lowry Vincent and
Kirk but a lot of these are pretty solid
in both good drives and the greens so
I’m just I’m just going with the greens
gained but there is an argument to be
made that you could look at good drives
for it I I wouldn’t hate that I’m just
leaning more so into the greens um yeah
that’s really kind of all I have for for
that page view I don’t like looking at
it on Pete die designs it’s a little bit
too narrow of a focus in my opinion I
don’t want to use the average difficulty
relative to par so uh more than likely
I’ll just be looking at Greens on short
courses
let’s go to
scoring uh taking a look at last year
and in Microsoft Excel we saw that the
birdies gained were pretty pretty Far
and Away higher than the bogey avoidance
you can kind of see that here although
only one player negative in bogy
avoidance and he was you know barely uh
negative but a lot in terms of favoring
the birdies now mat’s Patrick was pretty
even
doubled up birdies gain versus bogy
avoidance kley more birdies Xander more
birdies tagala pretty balanced but more
birdies Buckley and Davis heavily skewed
towards the birdies gained so at least
in the top half of your top 15 it was
skewed towards the birdies
gain um not a lot of eagles so Eagles do
happen but I don’t think it’s worth
looking at Eagles by themselves we would
be looking at or better gained I think
now in 2022
spe um quite heavily preferred the bogey
avoidance because he did not gain a
whole lot of birdies at all but look
right below him pretty solid in terms of
the birdies birdies birdies pretty even
but birdies Cameron young birdies
birdies birdies just favoring the
birdies gained over the bogey
avoidance um now speed gained quite a
few Eagles in 2022 made up for his for
his relative lack of Bird’s
gained but um there’s not a lot of I I
mean Luke
list was second in Eagles gained didn’t
make the cut several miscuts here so
we’re not going to be looking at Eagles
per se just birdies or better I think is
the way to go with this uh we’ll take a
look at proximity although I doubt
there’s anything there so on short
courses
our top birdies or better gained players
in the field this week Patrick kley Eric
Cole Keegan Bradley Ben on Rory col
moraba ludvick Oar Russell Henley Xander
and amelon oo they top 10 and birdies
are better gain also look at
opportunities these greens are so small
that if they are hitting the greens it’s
almost a an opportunity uh by definition
just by default so your top
opportunities gained players on short
courses Justin Thomas Chris Kirk L Oar
Patrick kley AA batia Cory Connor Keegan
maty bavone Tom Kim and JT
Poston now the one time that the Pete
die filter could come into play I could
I would argue is on scoring so birdies
are better and whatnot cuz a lot of Pete
Dy designs are set up similarly even
though the the green complexes are
completely different and whatnot um just
the way he plays with eyes sights uh and
the lines that you have to take off the
tea and and and approaching the green
are generally pretty similar between
Pete die designs so this is one area I
could Envision perhaps using the Pete
die filter so on Pete D courses the past
couple of years our top birdies are
better gained players there you go Ander
Rory kley schaffler fenale Tommy Tommy
Fleetwood Brian Harmon spe Poston and
sunj all right let’s get this set for
proximity I’ll be removing the filters
and just looking at 2024 all right um in
the course breakdown last night we saw
that especially compared to the PGA Tour
average the majority of approach shots
come from 175 to 200 that’s what out of
the way there a quarter of your shots
come from this range and another you
know 22 to 23% come from 150 to 175 even
though this is a shorter course due to
the forced layup of some of these um
hole designs you are left with mid to
maybe even longer irons into these
greens well more so mid irons for
professionals but any know anywhere
between 150 and
200 so let’s see if that really does
um lend itself to Upper leaderboard
success you see Fitzpatrick last year
was really good at the 175 to 200 just
kind of middling but if we uh at 150 to
175 but if we
highlight
um nothing really stands out to me I
mean honestly the best looks to be the
200 plus and very few approach shots
come from that range so I don’t want to
put a whole lot of emphasis into that um
you know there are a couple of of
players here that are pretty close to
field average you know 18 4.3 over four
rounds is essentially field
average um so if we
sort not a whole lot here you know you
got some cut making but then a whole
slew of miscuts towards the bottom of
the screen so don’t feel great about
that
correlation not a whole lot here either
you got a few more you know top end
finishes top 20 top 15 top 20 top 10 a
little bit further down but you know
nothing in terms of you know direct
correlation if we look at
2022 Jordan spe’s
win again not not a whole lot here not a
whole lot here our winner was decent for
175 to 200
second was pretty darn good from there
but you had several players in negative
it started off strong second and a third
but then look at the two miscuts here a
70th 69th miscut there’s not a lot there
in terms of correlation some cut making
but I don’t see a whole lot here
so I will I will show you the top 175 to
200 players because that is the majority
of approach shots here but I’m not going
to put any factor into it come Wednesday
night for the Mixed condition model but
for your information if you want to
Value the 175 to 200 I do think that
would be the range you would want to
focus on the top 175 to 200 approach
players or proximity players from that
distance in 2024 Austin ekro cam young
Eric Cole EVR CZ Tom hogy Fitzpatrick
morawa Jake naap Ben on and Adam hadwin
but again I’m not going to have any
emphasis into this this is just purely
for your information if you want to
Value it in your thought process moving
forward this week all right round out
the fantasy National portion with part
threes fours and fives and we’ll start
really digging in to some uh to some
heavy data
here um par 3s I mentioned that they
just don’t carry a whole lot around here
you know Fitzpatrick played them open
okay you know nothing
spectacular two ranges were really kind
of it for
him 7th 5ifth 7th 11 15th you know it’s
fine it’s fine but you still have some
pretty poor performances pretty high up
here in the uh par three
performance
1.2 now lots of Strokes gained in the
175 to 200
so if there would if there was a range
at least from last year it was
this and if we look at
2022 par 3s speed was negative 2.2 now
hv3 was really good SE ster was really
good at them but they not NE you know
necessary again our winner was negative
in them the highest one again 5.9
4.9 so if there is a range we’ll confirm
this in Microsoft Excel if there is a
range I think it is the 175 to
200 um but you know checking this course
breakdown very really quickly 200 can go
to either side so you understand that
now 217 pretty pretty well clear in the
200 to 225 bucket if you will uh 192
pretty close could go either way and 19
one
198 definitely could go either side so
you got a lot of part 3es that are
straddling that 2 200 boundary um so
interesting to see what Microsoft XL
says I’m just going to look at par
3s for now and if we need to come back
I’ll take a look at them but our top par
three performers in the field this week
McCarthy Tom hogi Pavone Chandler
Phillips Thomas dietry eer Rory Kurt
Kama Matt Fitzpatrick and Emiliano
Grio moving to par
fours uh now Fitzpatrick didn’t play
them all that well although he really
dominated the 450 to 500 but generally
speaking par fours are pretty strong
here especially since you have one less
par five 2nd 3rd 5ifth 11th 19th 4th
19th a middling from Adam Scott 5th 11th
11 19th winter was a little bit further
down like just lots of lots of
correlation around the par fours uh the
driveable don’t want to put too much
emphasis on just one hole so not going
to be looking at that there’s only one
that measures of this range it’s 3.7
somewhat solid but again only one whole
measures are there the majority of our
power fors measured to this range that’s
where you see Nick Taylor did very very
well a 9.2 and some pretty solid
performance throughout on the 400 to 450
but our winner took advantage of the 450
to 500s and still fairly solid actually
really solid except for this loan miscut
from Stuart
sink 2022 par
fors again you got to play them solid
not a single player negative until you
get all the way down to tied for
26th
um if we sort on it you know third third
first second
third can’t can’t emphasize enough how
correlating par 4 performance is
especially here at harbort
toown looks
like pretty good performance in the 400
to
450 yeah 455 as well so this might be a
situation we’ll have to come back into
fantasy
National um later on in the
evening
um to see the specific
range but it’s one of these two I just
have to to go to the data and and figure
out which one cuz it was pretty even
looking at pirate
leaderboards so what I do know is that
par fours are going to matter so our top
par 4 performers in the field this week
Scotty Xander CZ a batia Chris Kirk
Shane Lowry ludic obar Peter monati
Windham Clark and sewo and then lastly
because I I still have quite a bit I
want to show you all let’s look at Power
fivs all three measure to this length on
the scorecard you see they do shorten
them somewhat but I think it’s safe to
say we can just look at the 550 to 600 I
mean 4 and 1/2 out of 5 and 1/2 2 and
1/2 out of three and 1/2 1 and 1/2 out
of
1.6 um it’s generally in
this 550 to 600 range yeah I mean look
at that I think it’s almost a direct
duplicate Fitz Martin spe Aaron Ry Falls
a little bit
so yeah we’re just going to look at the
550 to 600 par
FS your top performers in par fives of
that range of that range Scotty Sheffer
Nick Dunlap Harris English tagala dri
zalatoris Davis Mackenzie Hughes Cory
Connors and J
day um all right good chance to go to
Microsoft Excel really really dig in to
the data
behind harbort toown and the RBC
Heritage so in the past 5 years at
harbort toown you see that the off the
te has been about 50% more important
than around the green which again is
shocking to me but the the data doesn’t
lie here it is and it’s been very very
consistent we don’t have an extreme
extremely high outlier in this to raise
this number in the around the green has
been pretty darn consistent
year-over-year at harbort toown we don’t
have a low number bringing this down so
off the te clearly has outweighed the
around the Green in terms of performance
for the past 5 years now the most
important shot type clearly Pete die
course is the irons and then the putting
is um secondary to the to the irons and
we have a couple of we have a couple of
really high outliers I can’t say
outliers pretty couple of high samples
and three low ones
so I would think it’s going to play more
so to these two could be wrong but in
the two years that it
did look at the off the tea it was still
middling it was still you know pretty
consistent with the
others
so
I’m this is why I’m I’m feeling that off
the t is going to be
somewhat
important somewhat important just seeing
the data here behind it moving to
distance and greens and Fairways this
this Fairways gain number is very very
low compared I mean look at Mexico a
place where Fairways just absolutely
don’t matter because those Fairways are
a bajillion miles wide these Fairways
are extremely narrow and they still
aren’t contributing a whole lot to Upper
leaderboard success instead it is in the
greens now this number isn’t nearly as
high as some places like you see Mexico
a
3.34 Wells Fargo is a 4.1 so this number
isn’t necessarily as high but it is
still the highest contributing factor in
this page
view at harbort
toown so and look at how much of a of a
factory played last year when it was a
designated event a premium event
whatever they called it I don’t remember
I up since then um it played very very
important so I’m thinking it’s going to
be Greens in this page view looking at
scoring you typically will see that the
birdies gained raw number is higher than
the bogey avoidance um except at courses
that are extremely difficult like the
Masters which we saw last week the Wells
Fargo um this is a pretty normal
distribution uh or difference between
the two about. 3 to point4
um been pretty solid except for this
one outlier year and look it’s a low
outlier in
2019 and it’s a high
outlier in 20 uh 2019 for bogy avoidant
so if we remove the outliers it really
becomes drastic that we want to look at
the birdies
gain so pretty on track with that par
3es look at there
so
1.5
but almost 75% of The Strokes gained in
the par 3es around harbort toown come to
this range so even though there are two
that measured to this range and two that
measured to this range on the scorecard
very clearly when the tournament is
actually played it is this range of par
3es we want to look
at so that’s what we’ll be
doing 175 to 200 very clearly 75% of our
Strokes gained par 3es come to this
range here moving into par fours very
high number here very high number this
is you know close to Master’s esque in
terms of par fours okay the 400 to 450
is outweighing the 450
to5 but it’s still fairly close still
fairly close look how look how far
different 2019 was in
this and I mean that’s a pretty high
outlier if we remove that becomes a lot
more
manageable this could be a situation
where we want to look at just these two
ranges but we’d be ignoring the
driveable and we’d be ignoring the other
short par 4 I don’t know if that’s
correct to do so so at least early on
you know in my research I say early on
in the week it’s late Monday night but
early on in my research I’m kind of
leaning to just total par fours even
though this range is a decent bit um
ahead of of the 450 to
500 and then moving to the par
fives so notice that the 0 to 500 has
not been used the last two years so in
the last two years when it was not when
they did not shorten a par five to less
than 500 yards look at just how
much more the 550 to sixes are than the
500 to 550 just astronomically high so
again we’ll be just focusing on this
range of par
five for what it’s worth just because
it’s off the corner of my eye this 175
to 200 proximity this number here is
rather extremely
large like if we were to compare that to
other fullfield courses on the PGA tour
I mean it’s a huge number so maybe there
is something behind the 175 to 200 maybe
but I just didn’t see it in the prior
leaderboards but this number is
extremely large so take that for what
you will all right so there’s a look at
the
extremely uh you know dirty digging in
deep into the weeds of the data behind
harbort toown let’s go ahead and um
let’s take a look at last year’s mix
condition model that I made for the RBZ
Heritage see how it played what the
results were how predictive they were
and see where we can uh improve so
looking at results uh in my top 20 I
only had three Mis cut so that’s pretty
acceptable I would be very happy with
that however the winner was a little bit
further down he was 32nd in my rankings
so nothing not great he did not have
good iron form coming in for what worth
but uh so a little bit a little bit of a
of an X there uh no credit as I did not
have the winner kley very popular top
five you know Victor hin and Cameron
young did not play well you know very
high in my
rankings um spe only a 10% runner up I
had 12th you know decent uh decent
suggestion
there surprisingly ROM was only 9 half%
projected
own so this was okay um you know a
little bit of uh I lose a little bit of
credit not having the winner in my top
20 but if I were to have well this is a
no cut event but you know if if I were
to replicate having three miscuts in my
top 20 again I would accept that that’s
that’s pretty solid I shoot for 4 to
five I mean it’s golf anything happens
so obviously we want zero but that’s
that’s pretty unrealistic so I was happy
with this minus not having the winner so
what did I look at I had 15% approach
makes a whole lot of sense after
everything we’ve seen this evening 15%
in par fours makes a lot of sense
especially after what we’ve seen this
evening 10% in the 400 to 450 par 4 so
not only did I separate out this range I
emphasized this range so it’ll be
interesting to see how predictive this
was if that was correct to do 10% in par
fives okay 10% off the te so I did look
at off the te last year good on me good
job Nick from last year um 10% on poet
trivialis putting I don’t know if we’re
going to do 10% but we’re definitely
going to have the same you know poet
trivialis
overseed uh filter I looked at Greens on
short courses I did have 5% around the
green that’s kind of what I’m leaning to
now okay there’s a little bit different
of a metric I use
opportunities gained on Pete die design
so again we’ll see how predictive that
was I did look at the 175 to 200 procs
and I looked at just that range of par
3s so how predictive were these um
pretty mediocre I’m looking for
something you know in the 40s maybe low
50s uh in terms of this number here to
see how predictive they were because we
had 140 players in the field last year
so the approach not great and again our
winner uh there he is our winner had
terrible iron form coming in sometimes
it happens sometimes he just has a very
hot iron week but the irons weren’t
necessarily too predictive now the par
fours were pretty strong and the 400 450
was fairly strong as well par fives
fairly strong but the best one the most
predictive indicator from last year’s
mixed condition model off the team at
42 much better than anything we have
seen so far and much better than
anything we will see
putting kind of mediocre greens actually
weren’t very good at all round the green
not Stellar opportunities even less and
then these two weren’t strong at all you
know higher than 60 so I’m not too crazy
about that but it’s pretty clear we do
want to look at this range of par 3s we
just put 5% in it surprising to see that
the proximity wasn’t so strong in terms
of predictability but again as I’ve
mentioned quite a few times and I’ll say
it again I was just simply incorrect
last night out to overlook off the te
not only is it you know data wise shown
to be very darn predictive and and um
consistent of a of a metric around
harbort toown it was it was also Al
pretty darn predictive last year so
there’s a look at last year’s mixed
condition model what I look or you know
what I used uh what we could be thinking
about differently and and whatnot so
let’s close out of that we’ll end the
show off uh try to uh make it as quick
as possible considering we’re coming
close on time let’s look at the early
look file and then I do want to show you
a little bit of research so let’s take a
look at performance at Harbor toown the
past 5 years in these various metrics
that we feel confident are going to be
important around Harbor toown so we’ll
start with off the tea so your top off
the tea players in the past five years
at harbard toown specifically sheffler
it’s only one time Cameron young Cam
Davis has been very good off the tea
here colore CWA has been very good off
the tea here Fitz Patrick Chris Kirk a
little bit less in terms of of success
but he’s been very good off the tea
Klay um
Poston what in the world is that a
helicopter sorry if you heard that
apologies that was weird
um ba has only played it one time it was
it was very bad he just was not very
good Glover Cory Connor so there’s a
look at your top off the tea
players at harbort toown the past 5
years let’s look at
approach you’re top iron
players at Harbor toown the past five
years Vincent’s been uh really good with
his irons tier Mora Kawa Justin Thomas
Klay Grio a little bit less in terms of
success but he’s been good with the
irons spe Fen now Connor look at Henley
Henley’s been all or nothing he has
missed the cut three of his five tries
but still has an average finish of 52nd
because he has two top 10 he is quite
literally all or nothing here uh Justin
Rose has been good here Cameron young
our defending Champion Fitzpatrick has
been fairly solid
Xander Ricky is only one for three here
interesting
sunj so there’s your top iron Players
let’s look at greens I do think those
are going to be fairly
important green gained
Colin four for four Garnett’s been okay
here I suppose and especially since he’s
going to be minimally priced I don’t
know if he is the minimum price but I
can’t imagine he’s going to be even in
the upper sixes Connors Xander spe Fitz
look at all these players who have had
lots of success around harbort toown
they are gaining quite a bit in the
greens sunj Rogers a little bit less so
hadwin kley
Shaka
Tommy English Aris English is three for
four here all right looking at birdies
and then par fours and Par
fives that probably will be it because I
want to
see uh or want to show you all some
research so your top birdies gained
players harbort toown cam young Cam
Davis kley
fenale sez three for three average
finish inside the top 30 Sam Burns has
been pretty good here Fitz defending
Champion JT Xander spe if you’re not
afraid of the wrist I don’t know how you
can’t be after last week but Tommy Cory
Connor JT Poston zinon morawa okay par
fours par fives and that that’ll be the
end of the early look file or at least
the uh looking at who’s done well here
par Forge my goodness Taylor Moore
dominated him it’s only one time kley SE
toala two for two poting again three for
five feno cam young CZ Matt Fitz
Fitzpatrick Cory Connor has been great
here Jordan spe of course Tommy Xander
little bit less in terms of upper
leaderboard success he’s just been kind
of consistent average finish of 44th he
is three for three though Rose Harmon
all right lastly par fives actually
let’s just take a look at the far par
FES 550 to 600 that would make the most
sense stupid par F 550 to6 Cam Davis spe
cam young Scotty last year cley Fitz
Fleetwood Colin Sam Burns Vincent again
Xander again BR Todd fenale
JT all right I’ll sort this back on the
average finish I will end the show off
with showing you a little bit of the
research that I have out on social
media we’ll start with winner
form so the tournaments that Winners
played coming
into the RBC Heritage nothing really
stood out to me but what I want to show
you these tournaments that are
highlighted uh um these tournaments that
are highlighted these are short courses
these are courses labeled as less than
7200 yards per fantasy National now
Fitzpatrick only played one before the
RBC Heritage and didn’t play it well
clearly but look at Jordan spe runner up
on a short course Stuart sink in 2021
top 20 top 20 web Simpson top five on a
short course CT paying a little bit of
an outlier here uh he had made the cut
at two of them and interestingly enough
the the players in 2019 was listed as
less than 7200 I can just go by what’s
listed in fantasy National but he did he
did make the cut at two of the shorter
courses Honda I’m willing to excuse
because it’s very very difficult I’m
willing to excuse that one he’s a little
bit of an outlier here but Wesley Bryan
top
five Jim furck in 2015 a top 10 so
majority of these guys have
you know a top 10 or or maybe multiple
top 20s in the case of Stuart
sink on these short courses in that
calendar year so with that being said
the short courses that have been played
in 2024 the
Sony
the uh American
Express
and um the cognizant classic and Pebble
Beach those four tournaments I’ll say
them again the Sony Open the American
Express the cognizant classic and Pebble
Beach those four tournaments are the the
courses that have been on or the those
are the tournaments that have been on
short courses so it probably would
behoove you to take a look at who played
well at those four
tournaments um cuz generally speaking uh
the winners
of the RBC Heritage had had some decent
form on a short course earlier in that
calendar
year something else that I want to bring
your all bring to your all’s attention
I’ll do the the winter Matrix last take
a look at
the um form of the players in the
immediate preceding tournament now
majority of the time these players have
been playing the Masters as the RBC
Heritage is customarily the week after
the Masters so we don’t get that data it
is pro proprietary but look at the data
we do get every single one of them
gained off the
tea the week or the tournament
before playing the RBC Heritage so
another reason why off the te probably
is more important than what I was giv it
credit
for so take that into consideration
pretty good off the tea form coming in
then lastly I’ll show you the winter
Matrix which is a performance of a
champion before they
won the oh goodness what is this uh oh
that’s why sorry um this is their
performance leading up to their win so
you see Matt Fitzpatrick missed the cut
the year prior but he had a top five he
had several other top 15 or a couple
other top 15s Jordan spe didn’t play the
year before but again had some top 15s
in the past Stuart sink pretty pretty
poor recent form but earlier in his
career had a top 15 and another top 25
web simpsons’s always been good here and
then wins CT pan you just mentioned that
you had never heard of CT pan I mean
even CT pan had a decent amount of um
success you know nothing Elite but you
know a top 25 and made the cut his first
try and then comes and wins now Satoshi
Gad and Wesley Bryan sorry I’m changing
the sizes here these two are the
outliers in this they won the first time
they
played but almost everybody else had an
amount of success you know generally
about a top 15 or
so give or take you know uh CG pan was a
top 25
but generally speaking most of these
players had a top 15 or
so so I don’t
think um prior success is mandatory we
just saw you know these two uh yeah
those numbers are representative of
where they placed that year so MC
miscut um fit Patrick finished fourth in
2021 spe finished 68th in 2020 20
Etc the reason why I don’t think
um uh course history is Paramount like
it is at the Masters even though they
had had some amount of success look at
the performance you know in the in the
Years you know the recent years to their
win a miscut didn’t play 68 62nd
miscut it’s not extremely
Paramount yes you’d like to have some
experience here it’ll have a little bit
of weight um come Wednesday night you
know in my course value when I do my
rankings but nothing to the level of the
Masters per
se um nothing to the level of uh the
memorial when we’re when we’re there
later on this summer uh it’ll have a
little bit but in terms of your
outrights any Wagers that you make you
do want to you do want to see if a if a
player has at least had and amount of
success in their career a lot of the
winners are not highly ranked in the
world ranking hey good evening Dereck
thanks for jumping in chat um let’s see
you might be right um especially like CT
pan kadra these four I know were were
pretty long pretty big long shots when
they won web Simpson has generally
played Harbortown well I I wouldn’t know
his owgr on off the bat now
Fitz Fitz would have been been fairly
high in the owgr spe always well I can’t
say always cuz he had that spell there
where he was in a drought so you might
be right um you know in general terms
that they weren’t big uh or very high on
the owgr you might be right with that
especially here in the middle years you
know say 2019 down to maybe 2016
17 good observation there Derek
um so at least with your outright Wagers
you might want to you might want to make
sure that a guy has at least had a top
performance at some point it doesn’t
have to be recent I mean look at spe he
wins in 2022 it was all the way back in
2015 when he had his top you know when
he had his his big finishes here but at
least you might want to double check and
make sure that they’ve had at least an
amount of success if you’re uh partaking
in
Wagers uh
um probably golfers are put putting well
and good so honestly putting has not
been a big factor here not not
consistently now off the tea has been
and that is what I was that is what I
was mistaken about last night and
corrected this evening I did not think
conceptually that RBC Heritage would
lend itself to off the tea very much but
the data data doesn’t lie here it it is
it is it is you know 50% more important
than around the green and the putting is
actually been full field or 3% it’s only
3% more important than the average full
field
course not to say that you ignore it but
it’s definitely not going to have the
weight that uh some of the other courses
say like the Valar say like the
Honda uh other places have uh been uh
the American Express places of that it’s
definitely not going to carry as much
weight as those places I much more
concerned with iron play off the tea
thanks to the data um around the green a
little bit cuz these greens are very
small so I mean players are going to
have to rely on their around the green
game
regardless uh yep yep you’re right we
saw that in the gcsaa tournament fact
she last night um two and a half inches
last year in terms of rough one and a
quarter length is what it’s listed for
the gcsa tournament fact sheet so yeah
um but that is a look I wonder if some
of these lower ranked players use this
tournament as practice for something
bigger again I think I think it was you
uh brarian that mentioned last week you
know if you were able to find a way to
to quantify the unquantifiable you know
to get in the mindset of players if
you’re able to quantify that come reach
out to me we’re going to make a lot of
money if we can do that um it’s to to
speculate on that is
is I think
um honestly I think it’s it’s it’s
detrimental I think it’s detrimental to
try to to try to get into the head space
of a player just look at the
data and Trust what the data is showing
you that’s the way I look at it then
again I’m biased because I’m a
statistician so I’m I’m always or I’m
naturally inclined to lean towards stats
anyway but we’ve been going for a while
I will bring us back to the early look
file and the performance of
players at the RBC Heritage at Harbor
toown the past 5 years um I want to
thank uh Tony Barbarian and Derek for
jumping in chat very much appreciated um
uh always a pleasure I love what I do uh
looking uh taking an in-depth look at
sports statistics giving you a
statistician and data analyst view of
what he sees not always right uh again I
was clearly saying last night that off
the tea didn’t matter and then had to
Maya culpa and and correct myself
tonight so U not always correct we own
when I’m not correct but will give you
an honest view of what I see as a
statistician um and and a data analyst
so thanks to you three for jumping in
chat thanks to everybody else out there
who Tunes in watches listens supports
the channel by liking the videos
commenting and subscribing I always
appreciate it wouldn’t be able to do
this without your all support it means a
lot uh for all of the Wagers that you
have made so far this week for the RBC
Heritage for all of the Wagers you’re
thinking about making this week for the
RBC Heritage and until I see you
tomorrow night for the Coralis spana
full show
may all your bets be profitable
