2024 RBC Heritage DFS Tactics

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hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to
calls calls this is the 2024 RBC
Heritage DFS tactic show we are going to
be covering everything you need to
finalize and optimize your DFS lineups
this week at harbort toown the up to the
second forecast ownership rejections and
much more so let’s not waste more any
more time get let’s get right into it
all statistics provided tonight and
every night are from fantasy
national.com it is the best golf
Analytics tool out there for your money
it’s going to make you a much smarter
golf Gambler and a much better golf DFS
player go check out fantasy national.com
you will not regret it in the
description to the video there are links
to all of the social media first off my
ex and Instagram where uh Monday and
yesterday I posted research around the
two tournaments this week uh generally I
post research around some course
statistics the form that the winners had
leading into their win of the tournament
uh the players in the field that week
that fit that criteria and so on so if
you want to see the weekly research that
I do on the PGA tour then give me a
follow at your preferred social media
site X is also where I place my weekly
betting cards and top player usage in
the DFS contest I play those always come
out Wednesday evening after the DFS
tactics show so they will be out
although it’s going to be pretty late
this evening as I still have to enter in
my lineups for for the RBC Heritage and
the corales uh but those two pieces of
information will be out later on this
evening so if you want to see those
pieces of information then give me a
follow over at X lastly for social media
gabes handle is in the description he
writes a very good article called The
Fringe it’s a great way to start your
week of preparation uh he continues to
update you with more statistics
throughout the week and if you are a
subscriber to his article you’re going
to be able to join us in his substack
chat every Wednesday evening that means
tonight after calls calls as we continue
the DFS talk over there uh we talk about
Game Theory our favorite uh players to
try to exploit uh our scary Fades our
top uh low priced plays all of that
information you don’t want to miss out
it’s a great discussion every week and
the only way you’re going to be able to
join us is if you are your subscriber to
his article so go show him some support
follow him over on social media and
subscribe to that article lastly we are
Live Chat is open want to hear from you
all in addition to the poll question
which I have typed up and ready to go
who is your winner this week at harbort
toown uh who are you pivoting to fading
away from all that good stuff let’s get
into it let’s figure out our strategies
and our tactics for the 2024 RBC
Heritage and we start with the super
forecast for Hilton Head and
specifically harbort toown before I
cover that let’s go over the poll
question and would love to hear the
community’s response the poll question
for this week pretty simple but again I
only had four options so uh choose the
best one of the four in your mind and if
you have someone else that you are uh or
that would be the answer to this
question put it in chat would love to
hear it but the PO poll question for the
week simply who are you fading this week
is it Scotty sheffler because he’s too
expensive is it Matt Fitzpatrick because
he’s not repeating as champion at the
RBC Heritage is it Jordan spe because of
the wrist or is it Justin Thomas because
he’s been terrible recently so I’ll put
that poll out would love to hear the
community’s response with that poll
question we look to the forecast for
Harbor Town and remember this is a no
cut event so we don’t have to worry
about half of the draw or trying to
exploit an advantage
here but even so even if there was a
draw or I excuse me a cut in this event
pretty even uh the wind’s going to pick
up in both afternoons it’s going to stay
calm in the morning and then pick up in
the afternoon I mean just looks like
fantastic
conditions in Hilton Head this weekend
week and weekend for the RBC Heritage
we’ll zoom out take a look at the
forecast for the
weekend uh perhaps a little bit of
overnight rain Friday night into uh
Sunday or Saturday morning and then
looks like we could have some rain um
maybe a system coming in late on Sunday
uh picking up a little bit of wind but
honestly not a whole lot here not a
whole lot here especially since the wind
is some of the defense of harbort toown
so it looks like scoring conditions are
going to be pretty
pristine uh in that regard so there’s a
look at the forecast looks like they’re
having quite a bit of wind right now
which would have made it pretty
interesting for uh the tournament if
this was happening tomorrow but such as
it is very very calm uh just Target your
guys and and play them so we’ll move to
Fantasy
national uh let me get this to
2024 um I don’t know why I did that
because I want to look at short courses
just very very quickly so our top
performers on short courses the past two
years this will be review from from a
lot of the stuff earlier this week but
again just quick quick review here
here my goodness come on fantasy
National it’s going slow our top
performers on short courses Eric Cole
Scotty Sheffer Xander Russell Henley
Keegan ludvick obar Patrick kley Justin
Thomas JT Poston and Brian Harmon so
give these guys a little bit of a boost
they generally play short courses very
very well the other end of the spectrum
players who have not played Short Course
as well Grayson Murray Jake knap Bryce
Garnett sep straa toasty kizner shank
Lucas Glover web Simpson malady so on
down there uh you know I wouldn’t say
eliminate these players from
consideration but certainly downgrade
them uh they do not generally play well
on short courses uh and that is the
filter that I’ve used quite frequently
in the mixed condition model having said
that we can also look at Pete Dy because
this is a Pete diey course and I did not
have any Pete die metrics in the mixed
condition model I’m just going to have
to clear all this out fantasy National
is really really struggling so on Pete
die courses in the past two years have
been Xander Scotty sheffler Brian Harmon
sunjay Jordan spe Windham Clark Matt
Fitzpatrick Justin Thomas Patrick Klay
and JT Poston so again I don’t know how
much you want to factor in
uh Pete D designs the computer is
Bucking the system something’s going on
good evening Tony uh good to see you in
chat hopefully we are uh prepared and
ready for the RBC
Heritage um especially since I don’t
know how much longer fantasy National is
going to stay alive at least for me
hopefully if you’re a member at Fantasy
National you’re able to access all you
all of the data um easily to be fair I
have been on this site literally all day
doing corales and now um RBC Heritage
so I’ve been on it a lot so hopefully we
can get it to cooperate for just a few
more minutes but there’s your top
performers on Pete die designs so give
these players a boost however little of
a boost that you uh little or however
much of a boost you want to give them
and then the other end of the spectrum
players who have not played Pete die
designs well Lucas Glover Eric Barnes
Peter malady Sheamus power Jake knap
Kevin kizner toasty batia will zuris St
jger Ben on and so on down I would give
these players um maybe a slight decline
in your
considerations um but as I mentioned I
don’t have any Pete Dy filters in the
mixed condition model I focused on all
short course so I’m not going to put a
whole lot of emphasis into this but
there’s the information for you if you
so please all right with that we’re
going to move to the mixed condition
model that I have made for the week
heavy cam young and Taylor Moore well I
will say I’m pretty high on one of those
two um we’ll see when I reveal the
rankings and whatnot uh I don’t hate
either player but I’m I’m certainly
higher on one of those two um we go to
the mixed condition model for the week
and we’re going to start with off the
tea on short courses look I spent all
Monday basically apologizing and
correcting myself that I thought off the
tea wasn’t going to matter and then
looked at the data all Monday in
preparation for the show Monday night
and saw that off a te did matter so I
went ahead and used the short course
filter there are some forc layups around
harbor around Harbor Town so I don’t
think distance is going to matter per se
if it’s just positional golf you have to
be able to place your t ball where you
need to so I’m just looking at off the
tea uh in a holistic sense 20% in stroke
scan approach this is a Pete die design
after all he does emphasize iron play So
20% there and it’s the type of players
that I uh prefer to gravitate towards
anyway 10% around the green I know the
data might not have backed this up so
much but these greens are the second
smallest Greens on tour so players
regardless of how well they’re hitting
their irons players are going to miss
these greens so I want to see who’s able
to get up and down uh especially since
um around the green play isn’t terribly
difficult here I just want to see who is
adept enough at it um because everyone’s
going to have to rely on that skill this
week 5% on poet trivialis putting of
course those are the the courses that
we’ve talked about for a a long time now
now seemingly at least the past couple
of months uh so only 5% uh putting not a
not a huge Factor here it’s just not
Jordan Speed lost two and a half Strokes
uh on the greens two years ago but still
won so you don’t have to be putting the
Daylights out to win sure it helps but
you don’t have have to have it 10% in
Greens on short courses again with the
small greens
and knowing that this course has played
less than
7200 every single round not just year
every single round going back to 2012 I
felt comfortable using the short course
filter with the metric of greens so 10%
in Greens gained 10% in birdies gained
and I did not use birdies are better um
going to the course breakdown just very
very quickly there are so few Eagles
here you really only have
a couple of holes that yield Eagles by
themselves I mean the the par five
second decent a 2 and a half but a 2% is
not necessarily a whole lot either the
power five on the back uh yields you
know birdies but not a whole lot of
eagles so I just did not feel
comfortable looking at Eagles uh in any
capacity so we’re just looking at
Bernie’s gained that will be the first
weakness potential weakness of the mixed
condition model if Eagles start flying
this week um at harbort toown but they
generally don’t so we’re just looking at
birdies gained on short
courses and we’re 10% there I waffled
back and forth whether I’m going to
whether I was going to put 175 to 200
proximity in I think I ended the night
uh Monday night saying that I wasn’t
going to uh you can see that that
changed especially because the most
prevalent Par 3 range is 175 to 200 so
really if you want to think about it a
little bit we kind of have 10% in both
of these categories it’s just split out
between whether it’s your t- shot on a
par three or
not um and that’s why I was comfortable
adding the 175 to 20000 uh especially
since uh the 175 to 200 par 3s were um
pretty clearly the most important range
of par 3es here so 175 to 200 procs and
175 to 200 par 3s but only 5% in each I
did not want to put a lot of emphasis
into it you will notice that I’m
ignoring two different ranges of power
fours I’m ignoring the drivable power 4
and the 350 to 400 power 4 there are
there is one power 4 in each of those
range buckets but if the data stays
consistent at least in the past 5
years these are the two ranges that
matter at all on power fours there’s
very little to be gained on the drivable
power 4 and the short power 4 so
10% on the short par fors 400 to 450 5%
in the medium length or maybe even
slightly long par for is from 450 to 5
finish out the mixed condition model I
really wanted to put 15% in here uh let
me figure out which way I need to turn
that way I wanted to put 15% in here it
was either 15% in the par fivs or
include the 175 to 200 Pro uh proximity
you see where I landed um just because
as I mentioned it kind
of um sneakily gave us 10% in each of
these statistics by doing that but
another potential weakness or or um
miscalculation if you will on my end I
do think these par FS will be pretty
important so if anything I think this is
a little bit too low you could certainly
up the percentage of this so there’s the
mixed condition model that I’ve made for
the week giving you a couple of examples
uh that I might be weak to or you know
maybe putting has a big weak this week
generally doesn’t but you know there’s
nothing to say that there won’t be
performances that shift the data a
little bit but overall feel pretty good
with this mixed condition model so we
move to Microsoft Excel and the reveal
of my rankings and a reminder for those
who are
returning viewers or if you are a new
viewer for your information my rankings
are based on three criteria the fantasy
national rank uh this is a numerical
rank ranking based on the mixed
condition model we just went over the
metrics and the percentages that I put
in them course value uh is an attempt to
give a player a value how well they have
played that course in the past 5 years
the lower the number the better we are
playing uh DFS so we’re trying to find
unique options so projected ownership
per fantasy National is also a factor in
my rankings my ranking go as as such a
huge surprise at number one Scotty
Sheffer I don’t think anyone would have
guessed
that Cory Connor number two Russell
Henley Xander and Tony fenale round out
my top five sewo cam Young Chris KK
Denny McCarthy and sahit tala R out my
top 10 so there’s your answer to who you
mentioned earlier Tony um quite high on
Cameron young although it does seem like
a lot of the members at Fantasy National
are quite high on him I really don’t
have much of an issue here with this
except for maybe Cory Connors I
understand why he is second in my
rankings third in approach he’s actually
the number one off the tea player on
short
courses um I’m just very very concerned
anytime you get a chalky Cory Connors it
can it can be uh a disaster his around
the green game is is really bad
he also does not putt well particularly
on this surface so I am quite concerned
with Cory Connor I don’t think I would
put him
second you know in in the big picture
but I understand why he’s rating out so
well he’s also had some pretty good uh
form uh or recent uh form here at
harbort toown good evening brarian
uh good to see you in chat watching
movie with wife I’ll get back to you
guys later not a problem I just I I I
tell everybody this I just appreciate
that you just jump into chat uh and take
the time to listen uh on your own
schedule so uh thanks for thanks for
tuning in uh it is it is very much
appreciated Tony fale really Rising
thanks to his uh at least per fantasy
National his unique ownership and that
reminds me pardon me while I open up my
uh email and
get the projected ownerships from gabes
Source I was um running a little bit
behind so I need to grab those so those
there they are I’ll have that over to
the side
here okay um don’t want to go through
too much of my rankings let’s just
figure out where the where our fellow
contestants are going um on the price
forward see what players we can pivot to
uh who might we need to fade away from
and all of that so as we sort on the
price board there
are six players six of them in the 10ks
we have Scotty Sheffer at a robust
133 Rory at 112 Xander at 108 Oar at 104
kley 102 and morawa at 10,000 even
with gab Source many many many more of
the I guess I guess this is a guess the
general public is is on Scotty sheffler
as he is coming at
27.5% versus 15% at Fantasy National so
it seems like fantasy National is trying
to beat Scotty Sheffer which is a very
dangerous game to play um let’s see
elsewhere in the 10ks at least according
to gab Source um everyone is is
garnering double digit percentages but
they do agree that Rory is pretty
clearing away the unique option in the
10ks um he is sitting at 13 and a half
or so percent per gab Source only eight
and a half at Fantasy National Xander
getting a lot of attention Oar getting a
lot of attention
morawa this is the first U player that
fantasy National and gab Source kind of
disagree
col Ora is sitting at a pretty middling
11% per fantasy National but sitting at
175% per game Source um look Scotty
Sheffer number one player the only the
only way you’re not playing Scotty
shefflers that you just don’t feel
comfortable enough with the 6K
plays and I say multiple plays cuz it’s
probably going to take two of them to
fit Scotty Sheffer in a lineup um either
that or you are using the entirety of
the low sevens but uh number one player
for good reason I mean his worst
statistic has always been the putter
it’s and I’ve talked about it now for a
while he’s actually pretty decent on
this surface nothing fantastic but he’s
pretty decent on this surface at least
middling so when you eliminate or at
least minimize his biggest weakness hard
to ignore Scotty
Sheffer I kind of have to agree with
Rory being the unique option um look he
played very well um at the Valero much
to my chrin since he was almost a full
fade for me uh the Masters did not go
well for him he was okay but if you’re
going to spend this much money honestly
I would just try to find that 2,000 for
Scotty or I would come down into into
into the uh
10 I just think Rory is in a dead spot
in the price board he’s got a lot going
wrong right now as well around the green
hasn’t been great his irons haven’t been
fantastic uh for as much Firepower as he
has he’s actually
struggled on these short par fors a lot
of that due to the fact that his we
wedge game has
been pretty
subpar uh and we see that here and it’s
represented here as well
so I I have some concerns with Rory
which means he’s going to top five this
uh that’s the way this works but I just
I I’m pretty cautious on Rory Xander
very popular good play I mean he’s top
five for me um he’s just he’s just
popular you’re just it’s it’s a it’s a
good play just a popular one Oar very
very popular again for good reason a
fantastic Masters number two in off the
te it doesn’t seem like what whatever
the course layout is long short narrow
wide uh he is just an elite driver of
the golf ball so I don’t think uh the
the tight confines of Harbor toown are
going to limit
oar kley
boy his irons have been bad haven’t they
they’ve been really really bad
so be cautious with kley the thing the
thing with Klay is he has just been
superb at Harbor toown and then morawa
probably fine I would be much more
interested in calling
morawa if he were truly at this 11% but
I I do think he’s going to creep up into
the 15 or so percent which makes me a
little bit a little bit less uh anxious
to
using his irons were much better at the
Masters and because that data is
proprietary we’re going to see players
like Tommy Fleetwood we talk about the
nines Colin moala I mean even Oar to a
lesser
extent the Master’s performance in these
um overarching or main shot type
categories they’re not reflected so you
know like last week the ratings were
very very low on Tommy they’re on
they’re low on him again because they’re
not taking into uh consideration the
Masters because that data is
proprietary so I think morawa should be
fine I just think he’s going to be more
popular than this in the five digits in
the
10ks I don’t see how you don’t make
Scotty sheffler the number one player
regardless now he might not be the
choice to
win but I mean I do not see him
finishing anywhere outside the top 10 I
just don’t see it the guy is dominant
right now so I will go ahead and make
Sheffer my number one play in the
10ks I want to make Colin moraa
second but I know he’s going to be much
more popular than this
having said that I still think it’s
Colin
warala just because of the price savings
the fact that you know he’s generally
really really good on shorter courses
because he lacks some
distance the irons are they were much
better at the Masters so I’ll make
morawa
second probably Xander third just
because it’s a solid play um it’s just
very very
popular uh I’ll go Oar
fourth Rory Fifth and I’m I am as much
as I mentioned I was cautious on Rory I
mean at a 7% Patrick kley at the Masters
that would have been the time to jump on
Patrick Klay and he still didn’t play
particularly well so something’s not
going right with Patrick
kley at least Rory’s irons are are in
somewhat better form at least because
they’re both struggling around the green
right now they’re both struggling on
these short par
fours
um K’s a little bit better putter on
this surface so I I’ll go I’ll go Rory
slightly ahead of kley but these two
might be full
Fades cuz I just don’t see how you how
you can ignore Scotty
sheffler I I just don’t I I don’t see it
now Game Theory suggests that you fad
him completely because he’s so expensive
and you’re going to gain so much on your
fellow contestants if you do that’s a
very dangerous game to play and I don’t
know if I’m going to play that game so
moving to the
nines uh Tommy Max hom Fitzpatrick spe
winham Clark and wills alluris in here
we’ve got a couple of unique options I
suppose Max hom about 11% per Gabe
Source fantasy National members are
still off of Max even after his great
Masters another player like Tommy
Fleetwood where uh the metrics might not
catch up for a little while main reason
I was off of maxom at the master he had
just never played well one at Augusta
two in the majors in particular uh and
you see this cour value he has been very
subpar uh at Harbor toown so there’s
enough reason to be um scared away spe
you have enough reason to to stay away
with the wrist which it looks like we’ve
gotten some votes in chat so spe has
gotten um a vote there because of the
wrist so that’s a very dangerous game
that you’re playing um because there
there’s a withdrawal risk there I
think
um Fitzpatrick the defending
Champion um he’s sitting you know
anywhere between 14 and 16%
I don’t know uh he he really likes
harbort toown but the the data and the
numbers don’t like him nearly as
much this is an area of the price board
where I haven’t been a whole lot um a
lot because I’ve I’ve been making
lineups with Sheffer so I haven’t been
able to try to get into the 9ks we’ll
try to do that tonight make some balance
lineups but in the 9ks like I think
wendam Clark is
fine um going to be kind of
popular really in the 9k is the only
player that’s garnering a lot of
interest at uh per both sources both
fantasy National and per gab sources
Tommy everyone else is hovering anywhere
between say 10 to
13% then you have Matt Fitzpatrick who
fantasy National members are really
gravitating towards
so you see Tommy I’ve explained it a
couple times now but uh his his metrics
aren’t going to be catching up
yet uh but solid play just very
popular um but yeah this is an area of
the price board I’m just just kind of
not
at
um zorus maybe but he is he has
historically been very bad on this
surface putting third to worst uh there
are 69 players in the field he is 67th
in putting on this surface I know it’s
only 5% but um a cold putter can can
really derail a lot of a lot of good
things going on again spe with the
withdrawal risk or the wris in you know
the
wrist wrist risk
I yeah I don’t
know I I wish I had something more solid
for you
all I just don’t know that I’m going to
be in this area of the price board I
just
don’t because I’ve been using a lot of
Scotty
Sheffer I’m not using the nines and I’m
not using the nines because I really
like the
eights in the
8ks we’ve got a couple players g
garnering a lot of attention first is
Cameron young 16% per gab source 20% per
fantasy National so even if you balance
those two that’s still 18% that’s still
a whole lot of ownership having said
that I do like Cameron young quite a bit
this week he has been very good at
Harbor toown in his two maybe three
tries I think it’s two top 15 in irons
look the irons are generally what’s held
Cameron young back now they’re starting
to really Catch Fire we know about his
off the te prowess takes advantage of
this the short par fours takes advantage
of the length of the par fivs I really
like Cameron young this week I was
hoping he would be slightly more uh or
slightly less own slightly more unique
but can’t get everything that you
want I like tala he’s going to be you
know somewhat popular as well it’s
hovering anywhere between 11 and A2 and
12 and a half to 133% but I think tagala
is
fine I love Tony fenale this week
especially if I am truly getting less
than 10% he is less than 10% at both
places so I really like Tony fenale this
week top still top five in irons still
top 15 both around the green and off the
tea even on the short courses so I love
everything about Tony fenale uh if he
does not play well I will lose because I
am really banking on him being
unique Lowry’s fine just very very
popular but
fine Justin Thomas seems like people
people are uh staying away from he’s
another player like Tony fenale that’s
sub 10% in the
8ks I’ll probably have him a time or two
but I mean I just I really like cam
young I really like Tony F now I like
tagala the other popular very popular
player besides cam young in the 8ks is
CWU SEIU 14 A2 per fantasy National 17
% per gab source and I mentioned him you
know at the Masters and he squeaked in
on the cut uh when it fell to plus six
but um everything’s you know he’s been
in pretty good form um quietly been in
good form Russell Henley not as well
okay I can’t say that cuz he doesn’t
have a decimal that’s why I thought it
wasn’t as high 15% for gource
177% per fantasy National so another
very popular player but one that’s very
solid one that I am going to be using
quite a bit this is some of the chalk
that I’ll eat really like Russell
Henley really in the 8ks I’m just away
from Sam Burns and I’m going to be much
less on Cory Connor for the reasons that
I stated in the reveal of my rankings
but everybody else in the 8ks I’m going
to use I’ll even use Justin Thomas timer
too because he’s guaranteed four rounds
this is another big reason why I’m not
in the 9ks cuz I love a lot about the
akks and any balance lineup that I’ve
built has
basically kind of started at tagala I
might throw in like a morawa to start
it at 10K but you know quickly coming
down into tagala young fenale this
range Henley if I’m not too concerned
with my ownership of that lineup so I
really like the 8ks really the only one
I’m off of is Sam
Burns and I’m much less on Cory Connor
for the reasons I I mentioned moving
into the upper
sevens
um I wanted to like Jason day last week
or I did like Jason day I used him a
little bit he was really bad uh so I
don’t know if we can use him Brian
Harmon getting a lot of attention uh he
is sitting at
uh 11% per Gabe Source 15 and a half per
fantasy National again it’s all about
the course he just really likes harbort
toown he likes these shorter courses
these technical designs so it’s a very
good course fit
there um in the upper
sevens they’re all kind of getting
balanced out really among ownership the
highest is AA batia at 12% the lowest is
been on at 8% so really at least per
Gabe Source uh this whole area is
getting balanced
out uh now J day much more popular per
Gabe Source than at Fantasy National but
Brian Harmon’s not as popular and bazen
who’s not as popular you know I’ve spent
a lot of this week talking about JT
Poston I think he fits this course very
well we can see that in his course value
um I would be pretty darn happy to get a
you know anywhere at 11 to 12% JT
Poston um I think he fits this course
fantastic Kirk should be
okay and he played pretty well at the
Masters that was that was one of the
things that that kind of propped up
my um my mid caching lineups is that I
had a whole lot of Chris Kirk who was
decently unique for a small field he
played well um
so yeah that’s where I’m at in the upper
sevens little bit of Kirk really like JT
Poston I’m hoping his ownership stays
lower uh because I I’m afraid he could
get popular Harmon is a makes a ton of
sense but he’s going to be the most
popular player in this
range uh I don’t know how I feel about
Denny um it’s okay I
guess it’s
okay uh he’s much much about the short
game prowess so it’s okay I guess but I
just I like posting much more Harmon
makes more sense I think I even like
Kirk a little bit more than McCarthy so
moving into the mid to low sevens Baden
hoot makes a lot of sense I know he’s in
the upper technically the upper sevens
but he makes quite a bit of sense but
he’s going to be somewhat popular I
think you asked about Taylor Moore I
don’t hate Taylor Moore but he’s he’s
garnering some attention and that’s what
that’s that’s what uh gives me pause
Tony um I I I don’t mind the player I
hate the
ownership and I’m I’m willing to go
other places around his
price
um or just go
lower um including Cam Davis I really
like Cam Davis this week now he’s
getting roughly the same amount of
ownership across both places
but I am much more confident in Cam
Davis he’s three for three average
finish of I think inside the top 20
here very very good off the te and what
you have to do at harbort toown take
advantage of the three scoring
opportunities that you get and he does
that so I like Cam Davis quite a bit he
will be a slight he will be slightly
more um chalky than than what you might
think but I still like the
play um
and then at the very bottom of the
sevens I actually like Matthew Pavone I
think Pavone is kind of sneaky this week
good with the irons his off the tea game
has been fairly solid not too worried
about his around the green game he
played well enough at the
Masters um I like
Pavone and he is sitting at 10% for both
for both places it’s fine it’s not great
the challenge with Scotty sheffler is
that we don’t have any 5Ks so what 6K
plays do we have that we can maybe uh
lean to to try and fit Scotty into our
lineups if that’s the route we’re going
well the first one I want to mention is
Lucas Glover all about the irons and his
around the green game has increased or
um gotten better by quite a bit in
2024 having said this I let off with him
because he’s the he’s the most obvious
choice he is the most popular player
he’s garnering 12% per gab Source 15 A5
per fantasy National so he is not going
to be nearly as unique as you think he
is being a 6K play but just because it’s
an obvious choice doesn’t make it a
wrong one he is a pretty solid choice
but not unique so be aware of that I’m
Gonna Save him I’m gonna just glow about
him I like vincon this week um I
generally don’t like Adam Vincent when
it’s tough I don’t generally don’t like
Adams Vincent when it’s
long Harbor toown if the wind was going
to be a factor it could get tough but we
went through the um forecast it it
doesn’t look like there’s going to be
much wind I think I think vincon is
somebody you can Target this week decent
with the irons you see the greens
especially on short courses you think
about his win it was at the RSM a very
similar technical
design um very short like Harbor Town so
I like zinon um ecro is also getting
some
popularity uh in the lower lower sevens
so be aware of that I’m not in love with
it and you can see like I’m just really
nowhere down here Beyond Adams Vincent I
will give a slight casual mention to web
Simpson because he play he has played
Harbortown so extremely well in the past
but he has no current
form so take you know whatever one you
value the most whether it’s current form
or course history that’s how you need to
approach web Simpson I will probably
throw him in in a lineup um with Scotty
just because he’s played so well
here but I don’t expect much from it but
the player that I’m gravitating towards
the most in the 6ks I’ve been on him all
week foreshadowing my betting card and
and all of that I just think Eric Cole
fits Harbor toown fantastic he has never
played here I’m not worried about that
the Alat te does concern me a little bit
considering he can get
wward but the irons are pretty good and
you see the bir is gained on short
courses I mean the guy loves short
courses you think about when he really
started making his charge for Rookie of
the Year it was at the Honda last year
now the cognizant classic a short very
difficult course but a short course he’s
generally had his best performances on
short courses I did not think the
Masters fit him it showed he was very
bad last week and that’s I I was hoping
he would be bad that way we would get
less ownership on him this week I love
everything about Eric Cole sitting at
five or 6% depending on the
source I’m firing up a whole lot of Eric
Cole if he does not play well I will
lose him and Tony fenale a lot of it
because of their
uniqueness but some more stuff about
Eric Cole I mean greens short short par
fours very good you know good I can’t
say very good good elite elite at 175 to
200 which is the most prominent approach
range here at Harbortown I just I think
Eric Cole is going to be a lineup
winner for us this week so there’s a
look at the price board how I see things
shaking out where our fellow contestants
seem to be going and the pivots off of
that let’s take a look at I don’t know
why I’m trying to sort let’s take a look
at uh tiers contests very quickly and
then we’ll start making some lineups for
our G bpps for those who play tiers
contests tier one you have Scotty Rory
and Xander if you want to be canuon I
guess go Xander but I just I do not
Envision a world where you just don’t
pick Scotty uh in a tear contest
especially because you have limited
options so give me Scotty in tier one
and I’ll try to find some uniqueness
elsewhere tier two we have Oar kley
morala Tommy Fleetwood and Matt
Fitzpatrick interesting tier oar is the
wild card um everything says he should
fit well here but he’s going to be
popular I kind of like more CWA
Fleetwood has rated out the lowest but
because of what I explained when we were
going through the price board he
actually is a pretty decent option Fitz
is a a logical Choice as well I I think
you you can’t go wrong with any of these
four I think kle is the clear odd man
out here knowing that I took and a whole
lot of ownership I’m probably going to
force myself to take col Mo aawa um in
anticipation if there’s more chocol
later that I want to take so give me
morawa in tier 2 but really I mean any
of these four are pretty
solid but I’ll take morawa in tier two
tier three hom spe Windham Clark wills
alur and cam young as I was mentioning
wanted to free myself up potentially to
be able to take some uh chalk if I
wanted to to me this is a one you know
maybe a one and a half perc tier um H
could be interesting but that course
form really concerns
me uh Windham Clark might be interesting
just give me CAM young I’m just so high
on cam young this week tier four gosh
dang it tier four we have seah Tony
fenale Shane Lowry Justin Thomas Cory
Connor Burns and
sewo um I don’t want Sam Burns for same
reasons as in classic I’m much uh lower
on Cory Connor so no thanks no thanks on
Thomas so really I’m kind of between
sahit tala Tony feno and Shane Lowry I
think Shane Lowry is the safe play the
high floor and low
ceiling I’m going to go with Tony fenale
kind of like
morawa and hope that he is pretty unique
in the tier and if he doesn’t play well
I’ll lose um but I need to find some
uniqueness considering I’m going Sheffer
in tier one and cam young in tier three
so give me fenale in tier four tier five
is Henley been on jday McCarthy Harmon
Kirk and
batia glad I went Tony fenale because
it’s probably Chris Kirk or Russell
Henley in this
tier I’ll probably go Russell Henley but
you see his projected ownership at least
per classic lineups so give me Henley in
tier five and then finally tier six we
have Pavone Grio Glover Fowler Eric Cole
van royan and
hadwin my pick is Eric Cole but I do
think Matthew Pavone is quite
intriguing but give me Eric Cole in tier
six so this tier construction goes
Scotty Colin morawa in tier two tier
three is Cameron young tier four is Tony
feno
tier five is Russell
Henley and then tier six is Eric
Cole all right let’s shift our Focus to
Classic lineups try to navigate all the
chalk that’s out there and build some
optimal
gpps and whatnot so we’re GNA start with
Scotty because he is the most projected
own player
on the Slate uh I know fantasy National
doesn’t have in that but he’s at 275%
per Gabe Source I would be more inclined
to
believe that
one um or believe that about Scotty
cheffer he’s going to be in 20 he’s
going to be much closer to the 27 a half
to the 15% I think so sheffler and then
we saw that the majority of uh both
places are going Lucas Glover and you
see even with that you don’t have a lot
of wiggle room here you only have
7500 per
player to uh to fill out your roster now
I’m only going to give our fellow
contestants in this chalky build 16k
it’s very very possible that they’re
going Austin ecro and Lucas Glover which
would change this up a little bit but in
uh in the spirit of trying to be as
chalky as
possible uh I really don’t think they
can go any higher than maybe Russell
Henley or seu Kim I really don’t um seu
came at
8,000 probably their second choice or
second selection due to Scotty’s
prohibitive price uh and they still are
only able to average
7,300 per player so in the low
sevens um let’s see perk gab Source
we’ve got Pavone at 10
% and uh 11% so probably
Pavone one of those options there now
7500 per can come up a little
bit um looks like maybe Cam
Davis would be one of the options 7500
is Harris English he’s not necessarily
getting a whole lot
here um
might be Taylor Moore actually now that
I look at it Taylor Moore is slightly or
garnering more attention at Fantasy
National um but there’s a look at at
what is probably a fairly common Scotty
sheffler
lineup um they might go Russell Henley
to to give themselves the full
50,000 but you know they’re they’re not
able this is the challenge with with
building Scotty Sheffer lineups and
you’re really not able to go into the
9ks if you’re using sheffler without
without double or maybe even triple
dipping into the
6ks um another option that could be
viable uh when I say viable I mean uh
that our fellow contestants are doing is
a double six of Glover and ech roote
this saves them quite a bit more where
they could probably squeeze in uh
Cameron
young yeah uh and then 7,400 per player
is the same Cameron
Davis and well if I could spell Cameron
Davis and Taylor
Moore uh this one actually is a slight
slightly bit more chalky per fantasy
National um due to eot being 11 and a
half% per fantasy National he’s only
about 8% over a gab source so there’s a
couple of of what I think are going to
be shells uh chalky shells of lineups if
our fellow contestants are willing to do
double sixes they’re probably doing
something like Cameron young or sahit
tagala maybe Shane Lowry as their second
player but if they’re only dropping into
the 6ks once for a Lucas Glover they’re
going to have to come all the way down
to sewo or Russell
Henley
um I highly doubt they’re going to go
they can afford a Connors maybe they can
um
for their second player and then really
live in those low
sevens if we’re if if we’re going to see
a chalky lineup That is not a Scotty
Sheffer lineup it looks like it’s going
to be ludig
Oar so still kind of stars and scrubs is
but not to the level that Scotty forces
it um considering oar is 3,000
cheaper again this is Glover or ecro
let’s see if we can’t find uh a lineup
here that doesn’t go into the 6ks I’m
using Tom hogi because he’s at 12% per
fantasy National he’s only at 8% per gab
source so take whichever Source you want
there but I’ll use Tom hogi instead of
Pavone we’ve used him already but really
there’s not a lot in the low sevens
there really isn’t not per fantasy
National now G Dave
Source like SE stra is at 10% okay maybe
Tom Kim perhaps Tom Kim’s at
12% per gab source so maybe a Tom
Kim coming up into the upper
sevens yeah probably Brian
Harmon low seven of Russell Henley or
seim let’s throw Cory Connor into this
pretty popular and then 91 Wills Al
torus SE the
take your pick um at least per Gabe
Source who’s the more
common probably will honestly this is
probably Cameron young again but we
already used him so yeah you know what
we’re trying to we’re trying to force as
much chalk as we can so just go ahead
and put Cameron young in there I know
fantasy National has him at 6% this is
per game source that Tom Kim is in here
if you wanted to make this a a fantasy
National thing it’d be Cameron Davis you
know upwards of 16% so this is probably
a pretty pretty common way of building a
nons Scotty Sheffer
lineup so how are we going to maneuver
around all this
chalk like I said I am I’ve never really
been in the 9ks when I’m building my
lineups so I’m going to start there
because that is much more Theory
crafting for for me cuz I can build the
Scotty sheffler lineups pretty easily I
say easily I mean i’ I’ve been building
them already so if we’re going to try
and not use Scotty
sheffler like I said I’ve been I’ve been
going either Super Ultra Balance
starting at you know maybe zalot Taurus
or maybe even starting at sah tagala and
just literally going down the line
tagala cam young Tony
fenale uh maybe not Lowry he might be a
little bit too chalky to use with
Cameron young I think it’s an either or
Cameron young or Shane Lowry um Russell
Henley kind of the same but I really
like Russell Henley so I’m going to
throw him in this one he just he’s going
to increase that ownership a little
bit um JT Poston absolutely in this
actually to be honest with you he
probably fits right here and then that
gives us 8,100 you know that’s Henley
that’s sewo maybe you like a Ben on or a
Denny
McCarthy um I think seu is probably
going to be a little bit too chalky for
this we could try maybe like Chris
Kirk yes I mean that that ownership
doesn’t look great but it’s far away
from that 16% that we just saw with the
ludvic Oar lineup that was you know a
nons Scotty Sheffer lineup so I’ve been
either going super balanced
in these non sheffler lineups or
probably what’s what’s uh probably what
you should do either like a Fitzpatrick
again I’m just highlighting the unique
plays I have no problem starting with
Colin
moreala maybe use a Fitzpatrick or a
Windam Clark here um I would use C toala
but again we’re going to go with uh I’m
sorry I would use a Cameron young for
we’re going to use S Gala and then Tony
feno then we’re going have to come down
a little bit but we still don’t have to
flirt with the 6K as you see we still
have 7500 per um I’ll bottom this
out uh I know Pavone’s a little bit um
common but I just I I I’m I think Pavone
is quite interesting this
week uh and we have 7750 I mean you can
you can probably squeeze in of Russell
Henley or SIU Kim with a you know a mid
seven or you can do two upper
sevens I’m just a little bit worried
about batia but uh he R it out well but
this would be like poting and Kirk again
or you know maybe maybe we throw
McCarthy into this one yeah I’ll just do
posting I’m just so extremely high on
POS and look that’s a sub 11% non
sheffler lineup um I can’t say it’s
Unique but you’re you’re definitely
going against the
grain if you’re willing to put to start
at morawa again you know I’m using fow
instead of Cameron young to emphasize
the
uniqueness but um yeah there’s a there’s
a a look at a lineup that’s probably
Against the Grain this week but the most
common lineups that I’ve been
building are sheffler and I’m just I’m
I’ve not really been interested in the
9ks much at all I’ve been going Sheffer
I’ve been bottoming out at Eric Cole but
I honestly I I mention I don’t mind
using web Simpson once since he’s been
so good here and if I want to get super
greedy I’ll go web Simpson and Eric Cole
I’ll do a double six with a sheffler to
try to be able to squeeze in an eight
like a cam young or a Tony
fenale I’ll throw in sh Larry into this
one I mean I do like Shane Larry as the
player but he’s going to be very very
popular just understand that but even
going Shane Lowry you know we still have
the ability to hover in the you know mid
to Upper sevens bazan hoot’s a little
bit too popular but this bazan hoot’s
somebody else that could fit in this
we’ve used Poston a bunch so that would
be my choice I mean you could actually
probably use Taylor Moren than this um
like you mentioned earlier Tony the 7900
has been on I’m not there but he’s very
unique would be absolutely worth a shot
I
think um let’s see if
we and we’ll just go Chris KK we’ll save
200 on this one again another 11center
or or 11 and a half% lineup even with a
Scotty
sheffler that again I can’t say it’s
Unique but you’re you’re you’re you’re
not going to be duplicated very much
especially if you’re willing to go to
Eric Cole and web
Simpson I love everything about Eric
Cole this is my bold suggestion for the
week the mad scientist play if you will
um if he if Eric Cole does not play well
I will lose but everything I think lines
up very well for him web Simpson is is
quite quite a dart throw if you will
maybe this is Adams
Vincent um
you know that’s still well within your
price range there um Lucas Glover you
have to be very very careful with Lucas
Glover because he is going to be the
most popular 6K Play Bar None 155% per
per fantasy n per fantasy National 12%
per gab source so that’s you got to be
careful if you’re going to be using
Lucas Glover but I’ll stick around if
anyone has any questions but those are
the kind of lineups that I’ve been uh
gravitating towards the most I just
don’t see any way you ignore Scotty or
don’t use Scotty Sheffer unless it’s a
conscien conscientious choice to me I
think you have to either full fade him
or just use him I don’t think there’s
any in
between um but while uh thoughts on Max
it’s okay it’s okay I do I am quite
concerned about the course value because
he’s not played toown well in the past
but I said that about Augusta last week
so um he is pretty darn unique in the
9ks uh he’s not the most unique but he’s
one of them
so worthy worthy look for
sure uh I just like I said I’ve just not
been in the 9ks much but if I am in the
9ks it’s probably
fits the most and then probably
hom so don’t hate
it don’t hate it one
bit so keep those questions coming I’ll
be more than happy to answer them but
while I wait on that uh I will give you
my one and done um thanks to Scotty
Sheffer last week at the Masters I
vaulted in the in the
standings uh I don’t I I guess most of
my um division or whatever of one and
done had already either used Sheffer or
just didn’t use him last week I don’t
know why um but you know sheffer’s win
last week catapulted me into the top 10
so I’m going to take a different
approach this week um my one done
because this is a no cut
event I’m guaranteed to make money
I’m going to throw a
dart and I’m going to use Eric
Cole I don’t foresee Eric Cole fitting
too many more courses in the foreseeable
future there will be some I mean shorter
courses like the John
Deere uh trying to think of other
shorter courses in the
summer but I I I think Eric Cole is
going to get forgotten this week
and if
he if he comes anywhere inside the top
20 based on the uniqueness that I think
he will be in one and
done uh coupled with you know the the
money that he makes hopefully as a top
20 even better if he if it’s if it’s
better I’m going to go with Eric Cole
I’m going to throw that Dart again I am
guarant guaranteed to get money out of
this unless he withdrawals but I’m
guaranteed to get money out of this so
give me give me Eric Cole in terms of
one and done to answer my own poll
question who am I fading this week
Jordan spe um it’s the wrist I just I’m
not willing to take that
risk uh so that is the answer to my
question uh that I
posted but doesn’t look like there are
any other questions so thanks to Tony
and roarian for jumping and much
appreciated again reminder I’m going to
be over in gabes substack chat uh
shortly after the show this evening the
only way you’re going to be able to join
us is if you are a subscriber to his
article if you aren’t you’re really
missing out um so go show him some
support join us over there the
discussion is always great I enjoy it a
lot makes you think uh some interesting
uh interesting topics and discussion is
thrown out there uh but thanks to
YouTube for jumping in chat thanks to
everyone else out there who Tunes in
watches listens supports the channel by
liking the videos commenting and
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this without your all support so I
really really do appreciate it um Good
Luck in all your contests let me know
throughout the week how it goes hey good
evening Gabe getting ready to sign off
and I’ll be into your chat here
momentarily um so thanks for jumping
into chat right at the end there for all
the Wagers you have made this week for
the RBC Heritage for all of the DFS
contests you play this week for the RBC
Heritage for this weekend and every
weekend may all your bets be profitable