Golf Players

2024 Valero DFS Tactics



Set your reminders for the sports betting shows every week (all times Eastern):
Sunday 9pm – PGA Initial Research
Monday 9pm – PGA Data Dive
Wednesday 9pm – PGA DFS Tactics
Friday 9pm – Friday Night Chill Stream

Friday Night Chill Stream content will vary so stop by and hang out! Like someone once said “It’s like a box of chocolates…you’ll never know what you’re gonna get.”

Follow me on Social Media where my betting cards for the PGA tournament of the week will be placed:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Kapta1NKahl
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/Kapta1NKahl
Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/kapta1nkahl
Kick: https://kick.com/kapta1nkahl

Subscribe to Gabe’s weekly article for a great beginning to your weekly research and give him a follow over at Twitter @glzisk

Hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 Valero Texas open DFS tactics show got a great show for you all all of the last minute information you need to optimize and dominate this week in DFS for the Valero Texas open we have all the updated

Ownerships uh the the updated forecast projected ownerships all of that good stuff plus uh my rankings and all of the metric that we think are going to play best this week at The Oaks Course got a lot to get into let’s get into it all statistics provided tonight and every

Night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money it’s going to make you a much smarter golf Gambler and a much better golf DFS player go check out fantasy national.com you will not regranted in the description to the

Video there are links to all of the social media first off my ex and Instagram were earlier this week I posted some research around the pre uh previous nine winners of the Valero Texas open at The Oaks Course and the patterns that they had leading in to

Their win at The Oaks Course and the players this week who fit that pattern as well so if you want to see the weekly research that I do on the PJ tour give me a follow at your preferred social media site X is also where I place my

Weekly betting cards and my top player usage in the DFS contests I play uh that’ll come out later this evening after the DFS tactic show here on calls calls so if you want to see those pieces of information give me a follow over at X and then lastly for social media gab’s

Handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a great way to start your week of preparation and he continues to update you throughout the week with his own version of course form or course history recent form uh and if you are a

Subscriber to his article which is free to do by the way you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat as we continue the DFS Conversation Over in his substack chat he’s gracious gracious enough to host me over there uh we talk about Game Theory our favorite uh

Players at portions in the price board our favorite areas of the price board in general what we think uh is going to be the optimal play stars and scrubs balance a mix all of that so you don’t want to miss out on the great conversation and discussion that goes on

Over there after calls calls and the only way you’re going to be able to join us is again if you are a subscriber to his article it is free to do so go show him some support follow him over on social media and subscribe to that

Article lastly we are Live Chat is open want to hear from you all in addition to the poll question which I’ll put out uh as soon as we’re done with the intro here I want to hear from you on that I want to hear who your winner is this

Week at the Valero Texas open who are you pivoting to fading away from what kind of lineups are you building if you have any questions uh obviously put those in chat I’ll be more than happy to give you uh my perspective of what I see this week for the Valero Texas open in

That regard as well so let’s figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 2024 Valero Texas open and we start over at the super forecast over at windfinder and before we do that I’ll let you get a a quick look at Thursday there but the

Poll question for this evening has uh a lot to do with um with the narratives that you’re going to hear quite a bit throughout the weekend or week and weekend especially on the broadcast which is about the Masters so the poll question this evening how much are you

Using players who are already qualified to play the Masters are you using them a lot you’re not scared you’re using them a decent amount not avoiding but not necessarily looking to Target them a little or not at all so let me post that into chat would love to hear your uh

Take on that uh want to hear what the community is thinking in that regard we look at the forecast for San Antonio Thursday looks pretty calm although we do it does look like we get a little a little bit of some gusts early on or maybe later in the morning or early

Afternoon and then kind of tapers off and then Friday the wind really picks up but I want you to notice something Friday morning the gusts are extremely high close to 30 m an hour in the morning whereas the sustained winds are pretty calm you know anywhere in the

High single digits whereas in the afternoon the sustained wind picks up but the gusts supposedly drop again I am only going by what the forecast has uh that’s all we can do so when I give you this recommendation that I or how I’m playing it keep that in mind I’m

Always going to suggest that if you have the ability to stay up late get the next um forecast update which is generally around 11:30 Eastern or so or if you have the uh ability to uh wake up early the luxury to wake up early and get the updated forecast

Then uh I’m going to suggest you do so but if this is the last wind forecast that you have before you finalize your lineups I’m going to take a little bit of a different approach than what you might think I am going with a favor of the Thursday

Morning Friday afternoon wave let me tell you why yes Friday afternoon it looks like they have the highest sustained winds among the cut but the difference for me is if you’ve played golf before and if you’re expecting the wind to do one thing if it’s blowing 10 mil an hour like it says

Here and you catch a gust it’s going to throw off everything about what you’re doing and these greens are difficult to hit enough as is and we’ll see that when I go into the mixed condition model how much I’ve factored around the Green in and

Whatnot I do not like seeing 20 plus mph differences between gusts and sustained WIS that is very very unpredictable if a player catches a gust there’s nothing they can do think about the players from a couple of years ago when you know you had players hitting

Seven irons into or um trying to hit seven irons onto the seven or on the 17th at the island green at Saw Grass the most Vivid thing I can remember or Vivid player I can remember is Brooks as soon as he hit he just laughed cuz he

Caught a gust and the ball didn’t make it but maybe three quarters of the way to the green wind gusts play Havoc with Prof professional golfers with golfers in general but especially for professionals because they’re expecting one thing and something completely different happens because of that I will take the

Earliest of the early tea times on Thursday morning and not afraid to use the Friday PM because their gusts are not nearly as drastic as they are in the morning having said all this I’m definitely not going to be using players that are bad in the wind it looks like

Wind will definitely be a factor for all of Friday most of Saturday even a little bit of Thursday as well now Sunday looks great and we’ll get to that in the second but that is the explanation as to why I am actually going to give a decent favor to the Thursday a.m. Friday

Pm. half of the draw because of the extreme difference in the the projected sustained winds versus the wind gusts and if we zoom out we take a look at the weekend looks like a lot of the same Saturday a lot of wind maybe not necessarily as much in

Sustained winds but wind gusts up into the 30s and then Sunday is very very calm looks like a great day for Championship round of golf in San Antonio on Sunday so uh the wind is going to be a decent factor I think maybe a little bit tomorrow but maybe not much but

Definitely Friday and Saturday and then tapers off Sunday so again one last time I’ll bring you into the zoomed in of the super forecast there’s your Thursday forecast and then your Friday so with that I’ve got a few of the or I’ve got the T times up over here

Off to the side uh so if there are any questions on what what half of the draw a player is um make we can make note of that but with that we’re going to move to Fantasy National and because of the wind that is in the forecast you will

Notice I have or I was going to have the moderate and windy conditions filter selected in the past two years these are your top players in moderate and windy conditions Rory Jordan spe Cory Connors Denny McCarthy Matt Fitzpatrick Max hom Adam Scott Ricky fer Harry Hall and Patrick Rogers

Are your top 10 in terms of total performance in moderate and windy conditions scrolling on down a little bit uh been on Colin morawa Carson young Andrew Novak Adam shank Brenan Todd Eric Cole Brian Harmon Mark har Mark hubard AA batia there’s your top 20 and you can

See bound down to about the top 30 or so these are your top players in the wind the past couple year so definitely give these these guys a consideration a boost in your considerations um if you have not finalized your lineups already as they have generally played the best in the

Wind the other end of the spectrum players who have not played well in the wind the past couple of years Kevin kizner Carl Yuan Ryan brim Andrew andry Eric Van royan although I always have an issue with this one because you can see in the windiest of windy conditions he’s

Pretty good he’s getting hurt in this moderate category here so that one I take a little bit with a Grandin assault mty Schmid Stewart sink Justin low Camille vas Davis Riley on down Tom Kim has not played well in the wind either so uh make sure you give these guys a

Little bit of a downgrade and again it looks like Tom Kims a little bit a different um case like Eric vanroy and he’s played very well in the wi and he’s not in moderate he’s lost half a stroke in moderate wins so that’s why I always check the moderate and windy conditions

So make sure you give these players a little bit of a downgrade considering the wind is supposed to really pick up this week at San Antonio at least especially Friday and Saturday and overall these players have not played terribly well in the wind uh but one thing we absolutely know

About The Oaks Course it is a very long course yes it is a par 72 but it still measures well over 7,400 yards so your top performers on Long courses the past couple of years Sam Stevens OA batia Max H Matt coocher Nico etaria Nikolai hoard Michael Kim Jimmy Walker Cory Connors

Kevin Chapel there’s your top 10 scrolling on down a little bit further colore Ka Hayden Springer much less in terms of number of rounds Nate Lashley Eric Barnes Jordan spe Rory Fitzpatrick Harry Hall Victor perie Brenan Todd there’s a look at your top players on Long courses so anybody who

Is at the top of this list uh in the wind and on Long courses players like Cory Connor was up there um let’s see I believe Rory was Rory was number one in terms of wind so definitely somebody to to um put an asterisk on considering his total performance in both long and

Windy uh don’t no one else really jumps up to uh jumps into mind immediately but there’s a look at your top performers on Long courses and the players who have not played long course as well Chandler Phillips Andrew Landry Stuart sink Kevin kizner Adams vincon Ryan brim Chad Ry Garrick higgo has not

Played long coures well the past couple of years Charlie Hoffman uh Zack Blair Adam long Taylor pendri Billy horel Justin low Alexander Joel Damon etc etc so with that um that’s enough of a review I think let’s go ahead and just jump straight into the mixan ition model

That I have made for this week um for The Oaks Course in the Valero Texas open it’ll give you an idea on the players who I am focused on this week in uh DFS We Begin the mixed condition model with 20% in Strokes again approach this is just a ball

Striking course especially as you climb the leaderboard think about your winners your Cory Connor um JJ spawn was a was a ball striker especially leading into that week uh Jordan spe which explains a lot of this but his irons were quite dialed uh when he won back in

2021 so this course rewards fantastic iron play and I wanted to highlight that in the mixed condition model So 20% in Strokes gain approach again I’ve mentioned it all week um I was a little surprised to see it Sunday but it really backed it up in the data on Monday

Around the green is going to be a pretty big deal I might have this weighted a little bit too much this might be overweighting the around the green but with that wind I think greens are going to get hit going to get missed more often than you think and these greens

Aren’t easy to hit in general anyway so 15% in Strokes gained around the green this week 10% in putting this is just poet trival is what we’ve been on the past month all those courses that we’ve talked about for the past month that make up that sample size so 10% in the

Past couple of years on poet trivialis 5% in Greens on Long courses I wanted to put more in here but as I looked through the data um I felt more and more comfortable you know factoring in a little bit more around the green uh factoring in quite a bit of par

Fivs which we’ll talk about uh lower on in the mixed condition model so if any this might be a little bit light You could argue to put 10% around the green and 10% in Greens gained but this is where I’m at uh using the long course filter 5% greens gained

Uh players who are going to gain in greens are going to gain quite a bit on the other players 5% sand saves and I know I didn’t talk about this at all all week this is again thanks to gab and then really really digging into the

Data The Oaks Course is the highest in terms of sand saves Strokes gained um on the PGA tour uh no other course contributes more Strokes gained for sand saves on the PGA tour um it’s just going to be a big thing this is another part of the around

The green absolutely but you see I’m I’m kind of focused on two as ects of a player’s game irons players like Cory Connor who won’t have to rely on their around the green or for the majority of players players who are uh decent but probably going to miss their fair share

Of greens I want to see how good they are around the green and sand saves comes into that a little bit especially here at The Oaks Course so 5% sand saves 5% opportunities on Long courses uh this is kind of taking the spot of total procs kind of went back and forth with

Myself whether I wanted to include total procs or opportunities gained I uh ended up going with opportunities considering the players who are actually going to hit these greens um these greens aren’t overly large and with the Contours uh the slopes and whatnot if a player is keeping their ball on the green it’s

Probably going to end up being an opportunity uh opportunity gained by fantasy Nationals definition is a an approach shot that is within 15 feet of the hole um uh I believe still hitting the green or Fringe In regulation so um I I felt a little bit more confident with this over prox total

Proximity 10% in Birdie’s gained I did not end up factoring in birdies or better uh I just think I don’t think there are enough birdies or excuse me there are enough Eagles Around The Oaks Course to justify looking at birdies are better so I’m just looking at birdies

Gained but that could be one area that I might be possibly weak to if uh some Eagles start dropping they just haven’t in the past you know three or four years or so but 10% in Bird’s gained again on Long courses we round out the mixed condition model 5% on this specific

Length of par 3s only 5% saw all week that the par 3s really didn’t contribute a whole lot and then I can hear you already asking or mentioning to yourself you know why focus on the 175 to 200 when there is a par three in each of these

Ranges well except for the 225 plus which will never come into the 175 to 200 Bucket look at these ranges and look at these yardages 171 easily could play into that 175 to 200 187 or excuse me 183 pretty well pretty well smack dab in the middle

There of that range and then the 200 to 225 is at 207 so you could absolutely see that falling into the 175 to 200 and if you wanted the data to back that up we showed it um Monday night that the 175 to 200 contributes about 60 to

65% of The Strokes gained in par 3es so I just felt comfortable looking at this range again maybe we need to look at just total par 3s and that could be a weakness but I didn’t think it was significant enough um to look at you

Know all par 3s and the 175 to 200 because they generally don’t contribute much here I mean the last two winners Cory Connor and JJ spawn were negative in part three performance when they won um so they just don’t contribute a whole lot but uh this is a a pure data

Selection or pure data point about The Oaks Course that the 175 to 200 par 3s are the most important range of par 3s here we round out the mixed condition model 10% in par fours 15% in par fivs you got to take advantage of these par

Fivs down uh here at The Oaks Course um they’re your best scoring opportunities as most power FES are on PJ tour courses but especially here at The Oaks Course and we saw that par fors contributed a whole lot for at least Cory Connor JJ spawn played them well but Cory Connor

Was on a whole different level when he won U last year on the par fors so there’s a look at the mixed condition model hopefully I’ve explained the thought process behind it perhaps some areas where I could be weak again you know maybe I’m a little bit too heavy in

The around the green with 15% here and the 5% in sand saves maybe I’m too light here that would be my guess before the tournament starts you don’t you see I don’t have any off the tea there’s been a year or two where off the tea contributed a little bit more than the

Others but uh most often it is kind of lagged behind in terms of importance especially since uh the rough isn’t uh penalizing here um it’s it’s not an a difficult driving course so I don’t foresee off of te playing a big deal uh you know if Eagles uh happen more

Often this year I’ll be weak to that considering I’m just looking at Bird’s gained um if it’s the other ranges of par 3s or if there’s a specific range of par four par five but that’s the mixed condition model that I have for The Oaks Course in the Valero Texas open this

Week with that we’re going to move to Microsoft XL the reveal of my rankings and a reminder that my rank rings are based on three criteria the fgc rank fantasy national rank uh spits out a a numerical ranking based on the mixed condition model we just talked about

Course value this is um an attempt at giving a player a value at how well they have played that course the past five years of course so now this week we’re talking about The Oaks Course the the lower the number the smaller the number the better and then we are playing DFS so

Uh we are trying to factor in project uh projected ownerships uh we’re trying to find unique plays so unique ownership or ownership is a part of my rankings as well my rankings for this week’s Valero Texas open Corey Connors probably no surprise not really a a bold going out

On the limb there not necessarily but Cory Connors is my number one player this week number two is Hideki Lucas Glover third Alex Sor and Keith Mitchell round out my top five Jordan spe B hostler Max hom MAV mcney and 6500 priced Andrew Novak round out my top 10

So you’ll notice I don’t take into consideration uh wind that’s why I I go through windfinder at the beginning of the show and tell you what I’m going to do with my lineups that way you can uh adjust this however you see fit maybe you disagree with my uh perspective on

Uh the wind and and what half of the draw uh is favored so that’s why I give you the power to uh to make the decisions on your own and I don’t factor in the wind or the uh wind or tea times I do that on

My own when I make lineups um you know off sham but there’s a look at my top 10 uh maybe a little bit of a surprise to see Andrew Novak up here but look he’s been playing extremely well lately top 10 in this field with irons uh top 15

Around the green the two most important aspects we have of our mixed condition model he’s been top 15 in both he’s been very good at the par fivs as well great putting on this surface so once you really dig into it I mean he was sixth per uh fantasy Nationals raw numbers so

Really like what I saw with Andrew Novak he’s just not as unique as you might think he will be um otherwise not really a whole lot of surprise when you’re focused on irons Lucas Glover is going to pop a little bit uh and he’s been very good around the green this 2024

Season uh Keith Mitchell for as much as he’s uh crushed my soul on some of these outright Wagers I’ve had on him uh he still has played well has collapsed in you know the final rounds or whatnot but he’s played well third and irons power fives he generally obliterates uh so not

A whole lot of surprise there seeing him rise either ball Hustler mainly getting helped by the fact that he’s so unique but you see I mean he was top 25 purely by the numbers in fantasy National outside the top 100 in approach that does kind of scare you but he demolishes

Par fives he’s played very very well here at The Oaks Course nothing really except for this for his irons have been bad everything else is generally in this um solid green to even Elite in the par five the one name you see that’s not up

Here and we’ll get into that when we go through the price board is Rory Rory rate it out horrendously for me and a lot of that is to do with his subpar performance so far in 2024 uh Ricky did not rate out well for me either there’s Rory all the way down

Here outside my top 100 almost outside the top 100 in irons has not been very good in terms of around the green for as much Firepower as Rory has he’s actually been kind of middling at these par fives and he’s never been good on poet Tri Vialis now the bird’s gain on Long

Courses is very very solid uh he’s been very good at this range of par 3es but but when you are read statistically in three of the four most heavily weighted um metrics in a mixed condition model you’re going to fall so there’s Rory outside my top 100

In my rankings now do I really think he’s you know 102nd in this field and uh more likely to make the cut or miss the cut then make the cut no not really but at his price and his projected ownership which I also have gab’s um projected

Ownerships off to the side here too it’s going to be a pretty easy fade for me but anyway I just wanted to look at that we’ll expand on that here momentarily let’s go ahead and sort on the price board take a look at where a lot of our fellow contestants seem to be

Gravitating on the leader board where they are going in these various price ranges to players and how weaken maneuver around the chalk so let me bring up again as I mentioned I have gabes Source he is kind enough to share that with me so I’ve got that here off

To the side in the five digits in the 10ks we have four players as week we have Rory at 123 Hideki at 106 ludvic obar at 105 and Colin morawa at 101 you see really only Hadi rided out extremely well for me a lot of that that has to do

With this course value uh The Oaks Course has been traditionally one of the more predictive year-over-year courses on the PGA tour in terms of success if you’ve played it well before you’re generally going to play it well again also in the um in terms of the

Ownerships in terms of the 5Ks morawa is indeed your most unique player uh members of fantasy National don’t seem to be gravitating towards him really at all sub 10% sub % now per gab Source we see that it’s about 14.5% so a little bit higher but

Clearly the most unique option in the 10 case I kind of like Colin more carway this week this number is a little bit uh High arbitrarily because he hasn’t played The Oaks Course in the past five years I think he’ll probably like The Oaks Course um considering it it is uh it

Rewards iron play and that is what moraca was known for now having said that he has not been as great with the irons as he generally has been or is thought to be he’s been more good than great or Elite with his irons in 2024

But I still think this is a decent fit for morawa uh he he’s on the what I think is on the better half of the draw he teas it up early tomorrow and then late on Friday he’s good in the wind yes the putter is uh just just awful just no

Other way around it is just awful especially on this on this surface but I do like moraba especially with the uh lack of ownership the most projected own player in this range looks to be ludvic obar at anywhere between 20 to 30% my guess is he’s probably going to be a

Little bit lower probably in the 22 to 24% would be my guess he’s only played this event one time so I would not get too carried away with this course value but he did not play it well his first time the irons are better the par FS we

All know it he’s very very uh Elite in ball striking but he does struggle with greens and he has struggled a little bit on Long courses so it is um it’s enough to make you cautious especially if his ownership does creep into the 20 to 25%

Range which it’s expected to do I’m not going to call it a full fade especially since he is on the good half of the draw at least in in in my mind being or teeing up early tomorrow and then late on Friday I can’t call it a full fade

But it’s I’m not going to be I’m not going to have 20% lud Vic obar I’ll tell you that much now hii the one that is rated the best of these four is the only only one of these four that teas it up late tomorrow and then early on

Friday um again I can’t call it a full fade but you know he’s hovering right at 20% at both places number one around the Green Top 20 in approach he’s when he is not withdrawn from this event he has played it extremely well I don’t like the tea time I don’t like the

Ownership but I’m sure I’ll have Hideki a little bit I’m going to try not to have 20% probably won’t have him 20% but I still think it’s a fine play he’s just very very popular I’m full fading Rory I’m just I’m willing to lose to Rory this week

All of the all of the numbers have not been good for 2024 um all the pressure he has leading into trying to complete the slam next week I just I don’t want any part of Rory he’s played The Oaks Course once it was not good at

All I’m out on Rory if I lose to Rory I accept that cuz I’m willing to to play other players um that are comparable to him I think especially in terms of of performance lately like maxom like morawa speed Connors I’m willing to play players that are comparable to him at

Much less ownership and a lot cheaper and who are in better form so I’m just out on Rory um and Rory per Gabe source is sitting at 22% ownership fantasy National seems to be more in line with me looking at the at the raw numbers the

Data behind it and a in a full fade so in the 10 case I will make col Mor Cabo my number one player the combination of being on the right half of the draw in my mind um the most unique option in the 10ks I’m not terribly worried about the putter

Um on this surface I think I’m I’m more confident in morac kawa’s Iron play than I am worried about his putter although it is you know to be fair it is a worry that’s why I’m not overly excited on on morawa but I will make him the number

One player in the 10 case I’ll make keki second um everything lines up very well for him he’s played very well here you see by fantasy National he was the number one player just purely based on the metrics and the numbers um so I I like keki he’s just

Not not unique and he doesn’t have the best half of the draw I’ll make Oar third and Rory fourth I’m going to try to limit my use of Ludi obar um just because I think he’s going to be very very darn popular Perhaps Perhaps except for maybe Cory Connors

Perhaps the most owned player in the on the the DFS slate this week so that’s a look at the 10ks moving into the nines this is where I’ve been living starting my lineups love Max hom this week sub 10% on a player that is doesn’t have a red statistic across here

Not a single one 87th here on the par fours is his worst everything else is you know great to even Elite opportunities sand saves birdies on Long courses the irons and the around the green have been good not necessarily great to Elite but I I love everything

About maxom he’s got the right half of the draw tee up early tomorrow takes advantage of these par fives love everything about maxom um he is more popular than what fantasy National is projecting I would think I’ll be ecstatic if he’s truly 8 and a half% but I I truly think uh gab’s

Source is more in line sitting at you know around 13 to 14% but even so to get a player of Max hom quality in this field at 13 to 14% I I jump all over that uh if Max Homa does not play well I will lose I going to be extremely

Overweight on Max hom uh Fitzpatrick I don’t know um obviously very good with par fivs and very good putting but I usually try to Target Matt Fitzpatrick when it’s very difficult and The Oaks Course isn’t overly difficult it’s just kind of average in terms of difficulty I think of Fitzpatrick I

Think of places like the Arnold Palmer where he blew up in my face but Arnold Palmer the Masters the US Open the PGA places that pars are extremely good scorers is when I generally look at Matt Fitzpatrick so I’m not I’m not excited about Fitzpatrick this week having said

That he does have the good half of the draw I think yeah he’s on the good half of the draw so you can think about it he’s just never played here so I I don’t know speed going to be pretty darn popular uh this is one player that

Fantasy National and gab Source are wildly different this is about the biggest difference I have ever seen in terms of the two sources and ownerships fantasy Nationals at you know slightly less than 10% whereas gab Source has speed at 23% and I’m much more inclined to believe gabes Source on this

One considering the popularity of the player the Texas narrative his irons haven’t been good but a lot of a lot of other things have been round the green par fivs good you know good putter number one number one Birdie’s gained on Long courses former Champion here at The

Oaks Course so really I really like spe but do not be uh fooled by the projected ownerships here at Fantasy National he’s going to be much much more popular than what this is showing Connor is probably going to be the most popular player on the Slate this week for good reason

Number one in irons yes his around the green is not very good but that hasn’t stopped him from from playing this course extremely well par FES is good as much as his putter can be bulky it’s actually decent are middling on poetri Vialis gains a bunch

Of birdies on Long courses gains a bunch of Greens on Long courses like um everything about Cory Connor seems to be good I’m going to use Cory Connor as chalk all eat um he’s sitting at you know roughly 20 to 22% on on both sources but that’s chalk Ali number one

Player in my ranking not going to use Tommy Fleetwood either he has not played this course his irons have been disastrous to be honest with you on the PJ tour this 2024 season and he’s not taking advantage of par fivs at all he’s just not in very good

Form I I I’m going to I’ll lose Tommy but at least datawise everything looks like uh Tommy’s just kind of struggling right now so I don’t want any part of Tommy hey good evening P thanks for jumping in chat U much appreciate it hope you’re hopefully you’re ready for the Valero

Texas open we’ll get off this uh at least for yours truly this this losing streak that I’ve been on seemingly not getting a lot right lately hopefully we’re going to turn it around the week before the Masters um B on rated out well at the very bottom of the

9ks okay he’s just a popular player um 14% at both places um long courses he generally plays very very well fourth and 31st on the two metrics that we have um that we that we used the long course filter it’s okay he’s just always pretty popular he’s

Been okay at this course as well so in the 9ks look I love maxom he I have to make Cory Connor my number one player I mean he is number one in my rankings he’s the defending Champion I I I don’t see Cory Connor missing the cut Famous Last Words

Throw it in my face when he does next week but I just don’t see him struggling here he he he’s never struggled here so I’ll make Connor’s number one in the nine case but I love everything about Max homea this week the tea time um the irons the around the green

Is good enough of course he’s good great on this surface putting I just I like everything about maxom I’m sure I’ll use a little bit of bent on but not a whole lot I’m completely off of Tommy Fleetwood knowing that Jordan Speed is going to be more than 20% owned makes me

Very gunshi about Jordan Speed but look everything rates out well for him I can’t say it’s a bad play just understand that he’s going to be much higher than this 10% that fantasy national projects moving into the eights not going to go through all these Alex

Noren play or um rated out very well for me probably for good reason he’s in he’s in pretty good form as well one of the better Putters on this surface for sure I’m was surprised to see that he’s actually 10th in par five performance so

Far in 2024 at least 10th in this field um but he does struggle with some long courses he does struggle not the best with greens not the best in Opportunities so he’ll be he’ll be scrambling quite a bit this week I think um I don’t hate it but again another one of these

Very very popular plays this week anywhere between 16 to 20% would be my guess on Alex norn and that’s a that’s a lot for a player that I just don’t see him on the level of a Max hom a Colin morawa a Cory Connor I think he’s a step

Below that so for me I just I can’t stomach that amount of ownership I I can’t call it a full fate I’m sure I’ll have him because I play you know I played multiple lineups but it’s it’s I’m trying to limit my use of him elsewhere

In the AKs you see where these rankings are I’m just not anywhere around here I’m just not um Tom Kim Ricky Fowler I was even surprised Russell Henley was rated as low as he is but look at his irons his irons have not been good in 2024

At all the around the greens been good but the irons have really struggled so if you want to Russell Henley might be a decent speculation to be honest with you Russell Henley sitting at 15% per Gabe source so a lot of the more general public might be on Russell Henley than

Fantasy National but we know what kind of iron player he is he’s just struggled lately but if you look back at his career like his career Baseline might be an interesting look for Russell Henley but otherwise like it’s I might use a little bit of norin

But I’m nowhere in the ak8 like this this whole range feels like a full Fade to me it really does I’m just nowhere in the 8ks and that tells you the kind of lineups I’m building this week moving into the upper sevens CZ Aaron Ry batia Mitchell

All these guys very popular as you can see fantasy National all of them have you know anywhere between 15 and 16% let’s see per Gabe Source you’ve got bazay n at 16 uh Aaron ry’s at 11 batia is at 13 Mitchell’s at 10 so all these guys are getting um getting some

Attention I think batia could be interesting although the putter is pretty bad but he’s been great good with the irons I do like batia and of these four oh excuse me so it’s Aaron Ry so apologies so I was going to say batia had the good half the draw that that was

A lie Aaron Ry of these four has the good half of the draw CZ batia and Mitchell all tee off in the afternoon tomorrow meaning they have the very Gusty Friday morning it’s Aaron Ry who has the good half of the draw I still like batia he’s been good in the wind

Lately um his par fives are good and he’s he’s really played long courses well but he did not play The Oaks Course well Aaron Ry has played very well here which makes a lot of sense he’s an iron based player and this course is rewarded irons so just understand that none of

These four are particularly unique the most unique in here here looks to be Mitchell and or Ry so if that’s the case I like Rye I do like all four of these players but I’ll probably gravitating more towards Ry because of the perceived good half of

The draw I do like C Bez a decent amount here as well despite the fact that you’ve got you know a poor around the green poor par fives he’s number one in par fours I I I like CZ a decent amount he’s just getting hurt by the fact that he’s

Fairly popular but you know we move down into the mid sevens like I really like Bo hostler this week and that’s scary for me to say that this is the second player that if he does not play well I will lose behind maxom if Bo Hustler does not play well I

Will lose but I’m going to have an extreme amount of B Hustler now B Hustler is at 12% per gab sour so you you know if you think his ownership’s going to creep up into the double digits you might not necessarily be as high on

Him but you know third in par fives the putter on this surface is good he’s been great at The Oaks Course in the past so I like B Hustler a lot this week mad McNeely is somebody that um has been talked about a little bit on the show in

In recent weeks and he’s he’s finally raiding out well despite the very poor irons in 2024 he’s still reading out well the around the green par fivs the putter opportunities on Long courses excellent you know great at par fours as well so Mt MCN is somebody to think

About as well he’s sitting right at that 10% number at both sources so perhaps give a look to McNeely um and he’s on the good half of the draw as well uh starting to move into the lower sevens Lucas Glover anytime you’re going to focus on irons he going to rate out

Well um he’s been very good at both irons and around the green he’s going to be very popular though is the issue I think he’s going to be pretty darn popular and a chalky Lucas lover is always scary he’s been great in his three trips here to The Oaks

Course everything lines up for it just under understand like Aaron Ry and bazen Hoot batia Mitchell you know spe above he’s just not going to be very unique I don’t think it’s a bad play by any means but he’s not going to be unique um

Hoard I don’t mind I don’t mind hoard at all I think the irons are better than this of course he’s going to have to be better with the putter but he he’s going to take advantage more advantage of par F than I would think and you see he

Actually top 30 The Oaks the one time he’s played it I kind of like hoard I do I kind of like hoard this week brenen Todd is somebody else that rided out very well for me middling ownership you know right at this 8% now 8% per gab Source 5% per

Fantasy National so or four to 5% I’m always a little bit wary of Brenan Todd because it’s all about the putter so if his irons just aren’t there in a week it’s going to be really bad for him but you can take a look at it if

You’re really in the bottom half of the sevens you know other than Hoy guard maybe a little bit of Lucas Glover I like Sam Rider as well look at the irons talk about putting he’s the number one putter on this surface the past two years um par fours have been good so I

Like Sam Ryder he’s been okay at this course he hadn’t been great but he’s been okay so Sam Ryder is who I’ve been gravitating a lot in the uh bottom half of the sevens to kind of round out the lots of nines that I’ve been

Playing um I do have a few plays in the sixes and in the fives that I would like to share with you all so in the 6ks um look Doug gim’s been in good form lately he isn’t necessarily the best or has not played this course the best but you know

You can always take a look at it he’s just going to be more popular than than what you than what than what you want 9% fantasy National 8% per Gabe Source you know the irons are good number one on par fives so he’s just a little bit more

Popular than than what you want him to be but it’s probably an okay play um everything in terms of recent form is bad for Matt coocher yeah I mean the irons are one of the worst in this field par FS he’s not taking advantage of I’m going to highlight Matt coocher

For one simple thing he is four for four with an average finish of sixth in the past five years here at The Oaks Course it’s something about this place he just really really likes probably a lot of it has to do with the putter he’s also the

Number number one and Bird’s gained I think it was with Rory somebody else was number one up here or at least yeah number one spe so with spe he’s the number one birdies gained player on Long courses I’m not in love with it but if you’re a big believer in course

History especially at The Oaks Course take a look at Matt coocher but recent form is is horrendous elsewhere in the 6ks I want to you know other than the top 10 Andrew Novak um play or 10 you know top 10 10th in my rankings um he’s not

Getting a lot of love per F per gab Source but fantasy National members are gravitating towards him a lot so I would I would probably think he’s more in the maybe 7 to 8% range um but everything lines up for him pretty well in terms of recent form you

Know irons have been great around the green been great putting’s been good to Great to Fair doing uh Novak is on the good half of the draw as well so nothing nothing to um to shy you away from Andrew novic except for maybe this uh moving into the lower sixes

Lashley rated out well I’m I’m tired of seeing Nate Lashley you know I backed him for two or three weeks didn’t play well and then he he topped fives or top 10’s uh the tournament that I’m off of him so I don’t I don’t know with the

Nate Lashley but in the in the bottom half of the Sixers in the bottom part of the Sixers I really want to highlight Johnny Vegas he’s played pretty darn well here at the O course he’s at 4% per both sources uh less than that at gab’s source I really like Johnny Vegas his

Irons have been good he’s never been a short game player this is all about the ball striking it’s all about the ball striking iron’s been good par F he takes takes advantage of hits plenty of green greens when it’s uh on Long courses um this is all about the ball

Striking and I I I if you’re really going to get greedy I do like me some Johnny Vegas this week moving into the fives I will mention a couple of names here for you all first off is Sam Stevens the number one player on Long courses the past two years yes the

Current form isn’t great I’ll give you that but he plays long courses so so so very well top 10 in bir’s gained on Long courses top 15 in Greens on Long courses and opportunities he’s been good as well you see he was also the solo runner up

Last year so take a look at Sam Stevens I’m not saying to to use it or or you know um base your lineups off of it by any means but if you’re really really wanting to get super super greedy I don’t hate using Sam Stevens a time or

Two Dylan woo somebody else that I want to highlight for you all uh the irons are good right now putter on this surface has been pretty good he just did has not played well here and he’s he’s played it a couple of times so that’s the concern with Dylan Woo is that in

Two tries not just one but two tries he hasn’t been very good here then lastly in terms of 5Ks you know what I’ll throw him a bone why not I’ll give a little little bit of a nod to Uncle Luke he hasn’t been terrible here the irons are better than

What has shown in 2024 he’s generally a good iron player the around the green been solid so far in 2024 decent putter on this surface if you’re dumpster diving to use your turn P you take a small look at at Luke Donald but I I must much much prefer Dylan woo Johnny Vegas

I mean even Nico ET of varia you could take a small look at I’m not a believer in chz Rey he rated out in the top 20 for me you see purely by the Numbers he was quite middling he’s catapulting in my rankings based on his one

Performance at The Oaks Course which was very very good and his unique amount of ownership now his irons and his around the green have been very very good in 2024 but that’s about it that’s going well for him see the par FS are quite middling putting on this surface is quite

Middling on Long courses chz Rey has generally been pretty bad generally been pretty bad those two and opportunities haven’t been good on Long courses so I’m not a believer in his him being 18th in my rankings so in the 5Ks i’ I’d much prefer going to players like Dylan woo and um

58 I probably said Johnny Vegas he’s at 62 at 58 uh or 59 where where’ he go same Stevens 58 so there’s a look at the price board and and where the chalk seems to be and how I uh Envision uh the ownerships falling and and some potential pivots off of the

Chalk let’s start making some lineups we’ll start with tiers contest for those who play tiers and then we’ll move into these big gpps and make some classic lineups free projections are loving lenheim for Value who the V is that guy um l somebody that I’ve used uh before um generally it’s been on

These alternate field events but you know uh hadn’t been great in 2024 clearly but he is somebody that has been on the radar for me Absolutely I’ll bring you over to lindheim just very very quickly uh I want sorted on price 52 Bor and Ben Kohl’s uh I’ll just do I

I’ll just look at um lenheim uh because of time bork I don’t know enough about since he’s coming over from the DP World Tour just just being honest I just don’t have enough info on him uh just whatever he’s done in 2024 Kohl’s now Nicholas lindheim first thing

That jumps off the page you look at his performance in the wind um so low wasn’t all that great but toasty clearly was a great play and I vaguely remember me saying that I was all I would I didn’t mind lower I wanted no part of toasty

So A+ from uh from me last week for you P clearly U but you see lenheim windy has been great been just super fantastic in the wind he actually plays average difficulty for whatever importance you want to put into this he has played average difficult courses pretty

Well um again he’s been in awful form in 2024 he’s missed every single cut he’s play no doubt about it but you look at his fall like top 30 a couple times the Windam was okay he’s been he he’s been okay at points so I’m not I’m not in love with it this

Week but only because you you happened to mention him I mean it is somebody that has been on the radar before so I at least know who the fuk that guy is the other two um Ben Kohl’s and toasty or no Ben kl’s and bork I don’t even know where those two

Are in the price so oh there’s been goals well he’s got the toasty from last week so apparently Ben Kohl’s is going to run her up and then Bor I have no idea where I think he’s probably a little bit more yeah so he also did not rate out well at

All so to be fair none of the three did all right let’s move to making some lineups here uh as we’ve already gone to the hour mark and still got to make some lineups Uncle Luke that’s right hey Tony good evening uh much appreciated thanks for jumping in chat

Hopefully you are ready for the Valero Texas open how was Memorial Park uh meant to catch up with you on that earlier this week and forgot so uh hopefully you remember to complete your homework and G and to give the community your uh your thoughts on Memorial Park

Hopefully you had a good time and that you preferred uh performed much better than I did with DFS all right for those who play tiers contest we have Rory Hideki and L obar in tier one I’m actually going to take Hideki uh again I just want no part of Rory this week oar

Is going to be extremely popular just give me H decki in tier one I think it’s the safer play um tier two morawa hom Fitzpatrick spe and Connors as much as I am loathed to not use the number one player in my rankings it’s

It’s going to be very hard for me not to use Cory Connor I’m actually going to go to Max hom in a tear contest this is where I’m gaining my uniqueness in a tears contest everything about Cory Connor you should like and especially in a tears contest

So it’s very I mean this is a this is a 1A and a and a 1A a a a AA but only because I think he’s going to be unique enough off of Cory Connor’s I’m going to go to Max hom and if if I if I played multiple tiers

Contest one would be hom and one would be Connors but I’ll take hom in the Singleton tii contest or tiers lineup that we make tier three Tommy Ben on Billy horel Alex norn and Brian Harmon I don’t like any of this can I just take Connor and like skip tier

Three God go I guess give me Alex noren just I mean he’s so far and away I don’t know been on rates out very well too but yeah give me Alex norin I’m not in love with it I just don’t like a whole lot in

This tier as is so I guess just give me noren I’m not I’m not crazy about it tier four Adam Scott English Henley Tom Kim Fowler cbz and Aaron Ry for me it’s pretty clearly between these two uh you might cat ually take a look at Russell Henley but I’m going to go

With Aaron Ry over CZ because of the perceived better half of the draw if you go CZ I don’t blame you one bit but give me Aaron Ry tier five batia Mitchell Cole Hustler McCarthy mcne EVR mcne is interesting but I’ll take B Hustler uh him and hom

Are my two kind of you know out there plays this week or unique plays that I think are going to be pretty good especially off the chalk of batia and Mitchell and probably Eric Cole so give me B hustler in tier five lastly tier six we have spawn yeah JJ

Spawn Manny Schmid Vincent toasty Lashley Johnny Vegas Ryan Fox Johnny Vegas pretty clear in way no say or butts about it so quick recap this tier’s contest or This Ti construction goes hii Max hom by the slightest the slightest margins over Connors but I will take H tier three goes norin tier

Four goes Aaron Ry tier five goes Bo Hustler and then tier six goes Johnny Vegas all right let’s make some classic lineups build some chalky lineups that it looks like our fellow contestants are making and then how we can maneuver around that so in are to try to build these very chalky

Lineups and I’ll bring up gabes ownership as well um in the 10ks like everyone seems to be going to lud Vic oberg over Rory so we’ll go Oar Cory Connors is absolutely in this um at the bottom end here like McNeely at 11% per gab Source uh

You got eek root Victor perie like MC’s a tin here whoopsie Glover 14% I’m more inclined to believe that a lot of a lot of people will go to Lucas Glover so let’s try let’s try Bing them out at Lucas Glover I don’t know how much wiggle room they’re going to have

Cuz nobody really nobody really in the 6ks on down is getting a whole lot uh at both places you see Ryan Moore 133% Novak at 122 but they’re nowhere close to this per gab source so I’m a little bit hesitant to believe that um we have Glover at 73 we

Go yeah probably MC NE at 74 yeah and then you can go something like batia and Mitchell who are gaining quite a bit of of ownership here Hustler also according to gab source gabes source this is looking like perhaps um the chalky shell of a lineup

Uh McNeely a little bit more popular per gab Source but 16% here due to these two who are going to be overwhelmingly seemingly the no the first and second highest owned players and you know I love Cory coners this week so I’ll be using him but

You’re not going to be able to combine him with really any of these players maybe one you’re going to really have to find some uniqueness if you’re combining Connors with any of these other players but there’s a look at a chalky shell if your fellow contestants are indeed going Rory I I Ryan

Moore um we’ll throw uh what’s EVR getting on both of these EVR not a whole lot actually uh bo Hustler maybe who isn’t getting a lot per fantasy National getting a little bit more attention per gab Source but really it seems no matter what source you use they’re they’re they’re using maybe a

10K or maybe you know a lower 10 and a and a nine or two nines they’re just living in this Christian bazen hoot whoopsie I need two A’s um you know bazan hoot Ry batia Mitchell area uh 78 yeah so I mean they’re just all living in this

Area right here we’ll throw in Mitchell again I mean that this is the area of the price board that’s upper the upper sevens that are getting dominated I mean just tons of ownership so how are we going to maneuver around that well I told you I am not going anywhere

Really in the 8ks if I do it’s Alex noren so I’ll I’ll try to build you a couple of different stars and scrubs lineups cuz I’m just I’m just not building any balance lineup this this week if we’re going to do a let’s go with a pure like a Superstars and scrubs look

Um that way it’ll utilize some of the five or 6K plays that I mentioned for you all this isn’t the I’ve been using the other style of stars and scrubs uh in my uh most often in my lineups but if we’re going to get super greedy we can go something like

Hii you know this would be Max hom for me we can maybe try to squeeze in a Col morawa with this and I’ve mentioned several 6K and 5K plays or at least a couple of 5Ks you know Sam Stevens um Dylan woo but really if I’m going to get super greedy I’ve been

Going to Johnny Vegas at 62 for the bottom of these lineups just really like Johnny Vegas at these style of courses Vegas um and he he alone is going to be able to facilitate you know not having to go into you know the sixes really if you don’t want to again you

Can you can use Johnny Vegas with you know this area of the price board and round out your line if you wanted um but instead let’s kind of let’s thr Hoy guard into this uh only 4% per fantasy National getting a little bit more attention per

Gab Source but you know hoard could be interesting in this um Lucas Glover Brenan Todd but you know if I’m using Johnny Vegas I’m willing to combine that with another player that is known for his ball striking uh and just make that a narrative of the lineup like it’s all

Going to be the ball striking being a little bit off the tea um short game be damned and then you know you’re at 8,000 basically per player um you know I mentioned Aaron Ry because he’s on the good half of the draw he’s a little bit more popular but

With the with the uniqueness that you’re gaining on Hoy or off of hoard and Vegas you can probably take an Aaron Ry and you know round this out however you wish maybe maybe you like a Keith Mitchell uh maybe like an Eric Cole who we haven’t

Really talked about who I don’t hate um 8,000 is Ricky I’m just I’m just not there uh maybe it’s CZ you know I throw in throw in whoever you might you might want here I’m going to go with uh I’ll go with Keith Mitchell why not

Yeah I mean you’re still at an 11% and you can easily um maneuver some some of this money around to not be as popular as this like if you come off of Colin War CWA although he is gaining some of your uniqueness but you know if you go bring

Colore CWA down to Max H or you know maybe an Alex norin or Ben on something to that effect you can you can maneuver your money around here quite easily and probably get under 11% but the lineups that I’ve been building um have been you know the kind

Of triple 9 Triple 7 or or two n and sevens uh kind of a a take on the balance lineup I guess I know he’s not 9,000 but I mean he’s the lowest priced in the in the 10K so I’ve been considering kind of my upper extreme of

The nines hey uh thanks for stopping by chat P much appreciated good luck this week um baseball has started so you’ll have to let me know how baseball’s going for you as well mine has been I I I can’t match up pitching and hitting one night I’ll have good hitters and the

Pitching’s been bad and another night I’ll have the right pitchers and my hitters are dog [ __ ] so but hopefully things uh baseball’s been going well for you good luck this week with everything Valero uh much appreciated uh but the lineups that I’ve been building most

Often like I just again I’m just a big believer in maxom yes he’s probably going to be the most popular player in the field this week don’t care number one player in my rank is I’m going to use some Cory Connors um and you see we

Don’t even have to go into the six case if if we don’t want I’ve been B bottoming out at like a Sam Ryder you could also take a look at you know a Victor perie or a Brendan Todd who’ve been you know who rid it out pretty well

Hoy guard as well Glover might be a tad bit too popular if you’re going to use Connor but you know else otherwise you know like B Hustler who I’m just extremely high on again Aaron Ry like I can use a chalky Aaron Ry I’m

Still not at 10% yet um you know I i’ have to be a little bit cautious of using like a bazen hoot with this or a or a Mitchell or a batia but you know I really like Aaron Ry let’s see perhaps for some uniqueness you could go to hoard you could go

To uh Eric Cole again who we haven’t talked about not really getting a whole lot of attention I don’t think this is the best fit for him but it’s not terrible you see he’s 36 in my rankings the irons are fine decent putter on this but he generally struggles with long courses so

I’m not nearly as high on Eric Cole as as I would be other times um I I mean I really like seabeds this is going to be a little bit too chalky but these are the kind of lineups I’ve been building you see it’s almost 12% I

Don’t like that I I wouldn’t submit this lineup exact as is but this is just kind of giving you the shell of what I’ve been doing you know the double nine and then rounding it out in the in the sevens or you know hom Connor maybe I

Drop into the sixes to gain a little bit of uniqueness maybe use a Davis Thompson who I didn’t talk about who’s you know 10th you know numerically just by the numbers I like Davis Thompson uh a decent amount this week Andrew Novak uh at 65 Doug gim you can always think about

As well um let’s try let’s try Davis Thompson yeah I mean we can go with Hustler Aaron Ry I mean this is 87 this is going to be again a little bit more popular but then you can squeeze in an Alex norn if you’re a Believer so those are the kind of

Lineups that I’ve been building the most you know trying to combine hom and Connors hom and spe maybe morawa and and Connors um maybe a little bit of B on but I’ve been mainly right in here I’ll use you know I might use Fitzpatrick a time or two I just don’t

Have a good feel for him uh at this course since he’s never played it but I do like more CWA this week especially with the amount of ownership he ownership discount you’re getting off the others in the 10ks I’ll stick around if anybody has any questions um that you want you want to

Answer you want answered for to finalize your lineups um few answers here on the poll question looks like the most common answer has been decent amount so how much are you using players who are already qualified to play the Masters uh decent amount not avoiding I’m along the same

Lines uh that would probably be my answer it’s somewhere between decent amount and a lot I’m just not scared to use them at all um it’s I’m not really factoring in the Masters at all this week maybe that’s wrong to uh maybe that’s wrong but I that’s where I’m at

I’m just I’m not really factoring it in at all beautiful course uh Rogers has the best swing I’ve seen in person Hughes is on the radar for f in the future Windam looked good yeah he he did look good even though even with the scare or the the note that we got about

His back he he looked pretty good last week interesting stuff for the Masters coming up next week but good deal glad glad you enjoyed it Tony um hopefully uh hopefully things worked out well for you down there um and and DFS was good and whatnot Windam is a big

Game hunter so far y after his win the the win at the Wells Fargo and then the US Open he’s been a big game hunter you’re not wrong you’re not wrong um my one and done this week I’m going to be boring again but I’m going

To take Cory Connor I’ve missed the cut the past couple of weeks I’ve really really crat in the oneandone standings that uh that I’m in I could see an argument for Bo Hustler I really could if I wanted to get unique but right now and I’m about 90%

Sure I’m going to lock in Cory Connor as my one andone for the week um go over your weather take for the late arrivals hey good good evening Gabe so uh I was going to mention it in your chat but yeah I can I can go over

It um I’ll bring up um let me bring up windfinder here real quick um and I’ve got a different tape than you at least what you posted on um what you posted on Twitter G game um wind finder so let me pull up wind finder very very quickly San Antonio airport is

There so with the forecast that we have and you you know as well as anybody uh Gabe that you know if you have the the the luxury or the ability to to get the most upto-date forecast uh to to do that and whatnot but based on just what we have here I’m

Going to take a different approach than what you mentioned on Twitter I’m actually looking at a favor of the Thursday morning preferably the earliest of early Thursday morning and Friday afternoon the reason being is that I hate the idea of 20 mph differences between sustained winds and

Gusts gusts throw off all of what the player expects whereas a player can can adjust for the wind and the gusts at least by what is forecast doesn’t appear to be too different but if a player is expecting a an 8 mph you know wind or

Breeze and catches a gust of 30 mph that shot is going to go nowhere where the player expects the best example I I gave earlier in the show was think of the players a couple of years ago might have been 2021 now and the most Vivid image I have is Brooks on

17 takes his t-shot and immediately starts laughing CU he catches a gust and that ball didn’t get three4 of the way to the green on 17 gusts play Havoc with players so I much would prefer the players who are going to have not necessarily the best win but the lowest amount of variance

Between the sustained winds and the gusts and I could be wrong but I’m going to be looking at the earliest of early tea times on Thursday preferably but it really really scares me off seeing 15 to 20 mph differences between sustained and gusts so that’s my take

On the forecast for you know the cut portion and then once we get into the weekend you know Saturday looks much the same now Sunday looks fantastic Sunday looks like a great day for Championship golf so I’m going to be factoring in some you know some wind

Performance uh uh you know on the back end for me like if players aren’t good in the wind I’m going to lower them you know fairly significantly in my in my consideration but in terms of a wave stack or or wave advantage that’s where

I’m at is I am I’m trying to trying to avoid this not necessarily that I like this it’s just I’m trying to avoid this so hopefully that gives you an idea of where I’m at with that but I think that’s going to be it for the show I’ve been going on for

Quite a while and I still need to jump into into gabes chat which I will do here momentarily so if you are not a subscriber to gab’s article you’re really you really are missing out uh it’s a great article it’s a great way to get you prepared for the week at hand

And on Wednesday nights you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat as we continue the DFS talk over there talk about Game Theory portions of the price board that we are focusing on who we like who we’re pivoting to and away from a lot of great discussion over

There so if you’re not a subscriber really suggest you go do so it is free to do by the way so thanks to P Tony and Gabe for jumping in chat much appreciated thanks to everyone else out there who Tunes in watches listens and supports the channel by liking the

Videos commenting and subscribing I always appreciate it your support uh means a lot to to me uh wouldn’t be able to do this without you all so thank you for that um reminder that my betting card and my top player usage will be out over on X after uh after a little while

Tonight got to finalize my lineups and then and go into games chat um so good luck with all of your contests this week for all of the Wagers you have made this week for the Valero Texas open for all the DFS contests you play this week for

The Valero Texas open for this weekend and every weekend may all your bets be profitable

1 Comment

Write A Comment