Tyler Tamboline (ToeTagginTambo) and breaks down his favorite PGA DraftKings and FanDuel picks and plays for the TC Houston Open. He also gives you some strategy and process for how he plans to attack the slate.
#PGADFS #DraftKings #FanDuel #PGA #DFS #FantasySports #PGAPicks #SHIPIT #TCHoustonOpen
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All systems go clearly For What’s up everyone Tyler tamboline here AKA toag and Tambo back for another edition of the Wednesday PG PGA show here on the shipet nation YouTube station no hoop this week he’s out so I did bring in a special guest got my guy Alex blickle head of DFS over at ftn
Bring him in here in a second but before we get into it I want to remind everyone on the way in subscribe to the channel we passed the 6K Mark we’re headed for s once we get there we’ll be giving away another annual PGA membership so keep
That in mind and then real quickly just want to let everybody know because it was talked about more than enough uh it’s on our Twitter X whatever account you want to go to we will announce the annual winner later from our guy Mark but we did launch MLB only so I’m gonna
Bring it up quickly cover my guy Alex I’ll bring him back in in just two seconds we got a lot to talk about today to Scotty or not to Scotty the weather gonna talk his golf pro career everything he’s got going on over at ftn
Just a lot of fun stuff but real quick you asked for it we delivered we post that out this morning we had more than enough people reach out and ask about MLB only and why sites charge a hundred bucks a month for every sport but you
Can’t just get this over the summer so we did launch it you could try out the week for 14 bucks it’s all the stuff you don’t expect from us projections ownership the pitcher and hitter rankings the stack rankings you can go to the testimonials on the main page and
See everything that we offer there the education course all of that included but $39 a month drops to 33 with code mlb1 15 so you use the code and then if you want to go for the season that is including the World Series right through the playoffs the World Series everything
That’ll drop down to 195 so less than 200 bucks it’s all inclusive you’ll get in the Discord with the monthly or the season pass that’s going to do it though for that one guys if you want to use the code use MLB 15 Alex thank you so much
For joining us this week and helping out man you were first to jump up and hop in the ring willing to do either or I thought this would be a good one to do it’s a fun week you guys got a lot of fun stuff going on over there but talk
To me man let the people know a little bit about yourself and how you’re doing so far hey I love that you started with some MLB stuff we’re pumped for MLB as well we just built a brand new pick them tool over at ftn Daily and if you ever
Played prize picks uh you know it’s it’s kind of overwhelming you get onto the site and there are a million different props you can choose from you don’t know which ones to pick and then you don’t know should I do a two-p pick play a
Five pick play six pick so we’ve got all of that content you could possibly need over at fdn and the tool kind of tells you the correlation of the play as well so you know whether the play itself is really good and not not just the individual picks but yeah it’s been a
It’s been a really fun PGA season over at ftn I think the the biggest thing for us has been the introduction of these gpp scores which I’m sure we’ll talk about today but basically just saying who’s over owned who’s under owned on each slate we got a really strong course
Fit model as well so it’s it’s been a fun year yeah we’re gonna get to that too we’re not gonna We’re not gonna have the keeper cut today with no hoop but I got something other special for you we’re gonna do a little bit of a recap
Last week I do want to dig into that a little bit but for those that don’t know you Alex I told the story today on the Mayo in studio show so you obviously have a a pro golf career and everything you’ve got going on with that we’ll go
Into that in a second but at the DFS open for those that don’t know what it was it was like a bunch of the DFS Community got together went out to an event it was the Honda Classic the year sjm won my boy in Florida but just to
Note Alex made the playoffs so he wins both the long drive contests at the event and then it’s him and this other guy in the playoff and Kenny Kim and myself the fantasy golf degenerates we strap up in the thing we’re like we’re going back we’re going to watch this
Playoff was actually really cool super excited you’re very good this guy was good it was like down to the real golfers now now all got rid of all the the scraps and rough rough t-shot for our boy alex here but it’s still a lot of fun awesome event that we had there
But talk to people a little bit about that you obviously have a pro golf G you’re still playing some events I know it was just a couple years ago I think you won either a state event or something like that but just let the people know a little bit about that
Background man that event was so much fun that DFS open I I really hope we start doing it again obviously got kind of thrown out the window with covid and everything but uh hopefully it comes back eventually because that was a blast um so yeah I’ve been uh I’ve been a
Professional since I graduated from college in 2015 and uh as you mentioned biggest win came a couple years ago in the Pennsylvania open uh we’ll actually talk a little bit about that when we talk about Camy young and and that you know guys trying to close maybe choking
Events things of that nature it’s it’s GNA be a really fun discussion and uh that summer was was a really interesting one for myself too yeah and I think that’s kind of the key we’re going to recap that we can actually hop into it
Now I mean I I talked on the mail show about I said you and I would talk about it we were chatting over the DM just back and forth I said we’ll save it for the show I think it’s actually and like you’re going to give Insight today on
Weather you’re GNA give Insight today on my thing that I was talk about the PM am wave split whether there’s whether or not I I I’m always curious about how people feel about that especially out there golfing the way you have and you go to US Open qualifier events and
Different things like that I think you’re still playing those but just real quick on that it was like the the closer versus the choker right I know from the chat do you think cam young is a closer or a choker I mean this is my take here
Alex and I’ll let you kick it off the guy like to me Keith Mitchell choked he had a two- shot lead he wakes up out of bed he has to go out and close this thing out but he has 18 holes in front of him with a two-stroke buffer that’s
Not very much on the PGA these guys are very good you know this I know this everyone here knows this but you look at uh you know cam young he shoots a 68 it’s not like the worst score ever at that course but the setup of he needed a 60
Even to make a playoff in the end being results oriented to get in the playoff he would have needed a 66 to get in there with malady and then you still may or may not win in that playoff so just give me your your take on The Closer
Versus choker segment here I I’m a data guy at heart like I’m an analytics guy but I don’t think you want my opinion as an analytics guy you want my opinion as a player and it just happens they’re kind of the same and so the the way that
I’ll answer this is in that summer 2021 I started my season in the Vermont open I was in in second place going into the final round and I was eight overp par through 10 holes just pissing down my leg playing terribly like I’m the quality of golfer that I am because of
The way that I drive the ball and that day every t-shot in the trees making a mess of every hole like I was a quote unquote choker that day then a couple weeks later I go to the Midwest golf tour uh really strong mini Tour event
And I take a three a four shot Lan into the final round and I’m playing with a guy was one of the absolute best minior players just unbelievable ball Striker every single iron as flushes can be it’s it’s a pretty tough Golf Course to the point where like anything under par is
Good right and I shoot one under on the front he shoots four under just he’s unbelievable he’s unconscious and I play the back nine three under to win by three so I go from complete choker to getting it done under pressure challenged by one of the better players
Couple weeks later I go to the New Hampshire open I didn’t just play eight bad holes in contention I went I was in third going to the final round after a uh a walk-off Albatross at the end of the second round which was pretty awesome um so I go into the final round
Of third I didn’t just play a bad eight holes I played 18 horrible holes of golf I think I went from like third to 50th like it was comically bad and then a month later I win the Pennsylvania open biggest win of my life for for anyone
Who doesn’t know like these State opens are are really kind of cool they’re really important and for me the Pennsylvania open is like my masters every year I I don’t get to play in the real Masters so that’s my masters and I get it done there so my question is who
Was I was I a choker or was I somebody who can always get it done under the gun because I had two wins and I had two absolutely atrocious showings When In Contention so my take is pretty much we never really know we can say from a data
Perspective when somebody has the skill of knowing how to win cam Smith Sam Burns those guys when they’re in contention they’re going to close it out they’re going to win at an above average an above expectation rate but when guys haven’t gotten it done we can’t say that
They won’t get it done and I think a big thing there is we spend way too much time looking at whether a guy has won or not or how often he wins When In Contention and not how well did he play cam young this week is a perfect example
I love the fact that you made the distinction between he and Keith Mitchell cam young like there’s been a lot of talk oh he cann’t even get done against Peter Milady Milady shot four under on a really difficult Golf Course starting the day one ahead of Cam young
It would have taken a hell of a performance from cam to get that win you can’t hold that against him yeah I typically feel the same way like I said that’s kind of the the setup of that one where it’s like I know that’s what people are going to say can’t even beat
Peter Milady but it’s like that’s just the way the Go the game goes some days it’s you know you see it all the time I will say it’s going to come up because obviously when we get to Sheffer that’s going to be the big conversation everyone wants to know about Windam
Clark and weather we’re going to cover all that stuff we always do did way less marketing for you guys today just so we could get to this type of stuff I think this is much more interesting talk through it then we’ll get to the Slate
At hand but just of note like I also sometimes ask about this like again it’s not the same you go out you control your golf game DFS you control your golf lineup builds but then it’s what you said like that third to 50th is so reminiscent of someone who thinks you
Know I got the sweat Saturday night cut sweat says I’m at this shout out cut sweats and Nelson Adcock doing the good things over there but you’re like I’m gonna do this and then all of a sudden it’s the worst round ever and you fall out completely like that happens all the
Time and doesn’t really matter the event you’re in big small if you play pro casual whatever I I think lots of people out there have had that do you have any comparisons at all being that you play a lot of DFS and have success with it as
Well as play golf like you do where you can make any comparisons to the two being individual quote unquote Games sports right in the sense I think I think the biggest thing is golf really prepared me for how process focused you have to be in DFS where if you’re obsessing about the
Results about you know oh I got third instead of first and you’re just like sweating way too much about that you’re G to end up trying to force things in your life you’re gonna you know maybe play a little bit more than you should one week just trying to force good
Results and all we can do is focus on the process and just let the results come yeah I agree and that’s part of it like that was what Mayo said today this around this conversation now he said about Xander right Ander he was doing his unofficial Mayo golf world rankings
Because of how messed up it is in the world to golf right now and all that stuff I’ll probably uh we can get back on another show sometime and talk through that stuff but just in general he said like man the guy’s In Contention all the time he just doesn’t have it so
You know people will say that he’s no good but what will happen the minute he gets one everyone will say well yeah of course he does look how often he’s been in contention it’s like the opposite side of how they’re putting it the other way it’s like right now couldn’t close a
Front door whatever you want to call it now once he wins one people will say Well that’s how you win you put yourself in contention eventually it’s going to go your way it’s all we’re trying to do it’s not the same but to relate it for
To a DFS perspective is to try and be like that’s the the key point of focusing on process not just picks and plays that you got to hope that the person that you follow always has the best picks that’s going to be so unlikely you have to what you have to do
Is build a process that’s repeatable so that you can continuously put it out there and then wait for your turn we had someone say a couple weeks ago like oh man three bad weeks for me in golf it’s like I I know people have three bad months I I’ve had three bad months
Before at PGA DFS like it’s insane and you see it with golfers and it’s not comparing now but just say you see people go horrible for a Year Ricky Fowler and then comes out and eventually wins at the rocket mortgage classic Jason day was down in these back up spe
Was down and he’s up JT down and up it happens to all these guys and it’s just different times in their life but one guy that’s on top of it right now is Scotty sheffler and we’ll get to him here shortly Alex but I do want to get
Your take on this I first off we always talk the weather quickly I’m not sure you’re seeing the same stuff but for this event right now everyone’s starting to talk about it on golf Twitter you’re seeing it start to get posted out on some of the other shows a little
Conversation between mayo and I today about it but it looks like no wind really at all on Thursday again it’s Texas things things can happen definitely when the wind comes out but on Friday definitely looks like a lot of winds after about lunchtime and then you
Know maybe talk a little bit to weather temperatures and then also just the gusts like what really matters right so oh it’s 10 to 15 sustained it’s fine but Gus of 25 plus it matters give us your take on that stuff as well and then talk
About the weather for this week that you see at hand yeah a lot of interesting stuff in this weather I think the first thing I’ll say is I it’s gonna be pretty cold Thursday morning so ball doesn’t carry anywhere near as far plus you then have to make a within round adjustment
Once it does warm up like okay 140 was my pitching wedge two holes ago now it’s going to be a gap wedge two holes later it might might be a half swing Gap W so you it’s a little bit tougher to make that adjustment when you’re starting in
The cold like 50 degrees flat is what I’m seeing maybe even 47 degrees uh for when some of those guys are going to tee off Friday the wind sustained winds are tough but the gusts are what make it really difficult because then you not only have to deal
With the ball being affected by the wind but now you’re also guessing about okay how is it going to affect it is it you know I’m feeling a gust of 20 but up in the air is it only 10 when up in the air is it the same direction that I’m
Feeling on my face or we see all the time like on 17 at the players at sass where they show it’s like it’s in from the right at seven miles an hour in the player’s face but up in the air it’s downwind at 11 miles an hour something
Like that so that’s what makes it so difficult to handle wind is it’s not just the way the ball’s affecting or the way the wind is affecting the ball in the air but it’s also you have to be right about how it’s going to affect the
Ball yeah you talked about just just the you know the stuff you know more about than most out there like talk about switching clubs and which swing level you’re going with it now which with which club Etc but then you add in what you hear a lot of Pros talk about is the
Sustained is much better because at least they know what the wind is it’s when it’s going all over the place and changing up on them that they start to get frustrated because I thought this my caddy thought that we agreed on this and then this happened anyway and it all
Went out the window so gets pretty tricky when it comes to that anything like do you see a slight PM am wave Advantage here like that’s what I think a lot of people are starting to look at right now I’m not sure if you see that
That for this week and then also um you know let’s talk about that first then I do want to get a quick take on the PM angle yeah I do think I see uh a bit of an edge there the other thing I’ll say is sometimes I think people are a little
Bit too quick to see some wind and just assume that that’s going to be bad like sometimes if the course is starting out really soft a little bit of wind drying up the course piit can actually be advantageous because it means drives are going to run out an extra 20 yards or
Something like that so you’re shortening the course plus you get some holes where it’s like oh this is really difficult ho typically but today it’s perfectly downwind so now that hole that usually plays at four and a half is going to play at 4.0 things of that nature so
It’s not as simple as there’s wind it’s going to be tougher there’s going to be wave Advantage H but oftentimes it is and I don’t have the information to know uh exactly you know what when direction is easy or not on this golf course there are some where it’s like oh man we’ve
Got a big Edge today because it’s an East Wind so we know that the wind is going to help them or something like that this is not the case we’ve only got three years worth of date on this golf course plus now we’re playing at a
Different time of year so kind of a there’s more uncertainty this week than most yeah then that the chat’s already talk about Scotty and the quote unquote bad wave and I I’m not sure if you if you know but do you think Scotty’s ever seen Texas wins before know to get
Around those because I’m pretty sure no one’s gonna care about that Scotty’s gonna be extremely owned we’ll go there in just a second guys but just real quick um you know the PM thing I always talk about so I will get this sort of your last golf take here and then we can
Keep it going with the Slate but the uh what I again I’m not a pro golfer I’ve never played any of these tournaments that you’re in all that and and I know that when a golfer goes out on Friday morning they still have an idea of the
Number they got to hit they’re saying it’s probably 100 200 you hear them talking about interviews all the time probably got to get to 200 a day and I’m good or whatever they say for whatever event but the thought of just going out and being able to set the tone and
Almost being a part of setting that number versus in the afternoon when you know it’s like pretty clearcut now everyone’s saying yeah it’s looking like it’s going to be to under you got to get to that number you’re too under with five holes to play and like last week
You got the snake pit in front of you or you got something like man you cannot in my head you’re thinking about just compounding mistakes and you’re combing a sort of negative mentality you have to be very strong willed to play golf in in the first place but just to say it where
One mistake and you start to feel like now I’m screwed because I gotta just get it back or I always say this every year at Tory Pines North South everyone always says oh get out on the North set a nice low score get to 500 and then
Just hope to be alive on the south on Friday it’s like well what about the guys that just crush it on Friday at the South how good does that feel to know you’re playing the north the next day that’s not really a pm. but just give me
Thoughts on mentality from that type of perspective I am curious man it’s so hard to get to the tour that I think people don’t realize merely by the fact that they are on the tour and playing these events they have already proven that they can handle pressure really well and they
Play well under pressure a lot of guys even will probably say that they play best under pressure so I don’t necessarily agree with that angle but where I do think that there’s an edge to the PM am split is that nobody likes to wait right if you finish your round
Early Thursday you’re done by lunchtime you’ve got over 24 hours before you get to tea up again that weight is really annoying at minimum and it can be uh difficult to stay in Rhythm like particular if you played well maybe it’s even a case that you know someone who
Went out and shot three over and was really dis point with round maybe they are then more likely to turn it around the next day if they had that weight but there’s nothing better than than playing well Thursday afternoon sleeping waking up and just being able to get right back
Out there and trying to continue that momentum so I think that’s an area where the PM split absolutely is helpful I’m gonna take it as a w I’ve been right all along I’m gonna say I do appreciate the Insight it kind of makes sense I was
Just curious like you just said like you know sleeping on it after a good round and then waking up early but part of that is like you said staying in Rhythm knowing it’s all good and even for the guys that you know that get written off
On day one all the time oh that guy sucks man he shot a five over and it’s a course where like even is probably the cut or one over is the cut they’re not that far off they just need to flip the round the same guy that had four under
On day one can go out and shoot a four over and land it even like they can go four over to four under and go even that way so and then see where they find themselves over the weekend so definitely some good Insight definitely appreciate that uh let’s move on let’s
Have this Scotty conversation and I guess is there anything you want to talk about this course before quickly because you mentioned about three years history the players playing you know mentioning already about playing it at a different time of the year lot of bomber conversation so I guess we should have
That first and then we can apply it I’ll get there guys don’t worry I promise I’m really intrigued here by this conversation go ahead yeah there there are two things that stand out to me about this golf course uh the first is we from these three years we have gotten
Some extra signal on driving distance and a less than typical signal on driving accuracy we by the way use a retary stroke gain driving accuracy metric so uh not your typical you know percentage of Fairways hit which personally I think is one of the worst statistics in all the sports let alone
Golf uh but we get we get a little bit less signal than usual on that driving accuracy metric and then the surprising one is a big increase on around the green signal here I’m not sure that’s going to continue to this season uh my co-host on Prov Pro another former pro
Golfer Justin Bates he’s always big on grass type and looking at grass type around the green play the overseed that we’re going to see this year it’s definitely a lot easier to chip off of it’s just so much easier to make good contact than the grainy Bermuda that
They’ve played previously here so maybe we’ll get slightly less of of an around the green impact but I think if anything we’re going to get an even larger lean into driving distance and away from driving accuracy because it sounds like the rough is going to be pretty easy to
Play out of this week yeah and just heard the you know the news before hopping on everyone was going on about the the Windham Clark and the the back and everything and then one of his quotes was literally like kind of a bad week to have this sort of minor injury
Because the setup of it’s just bomb and gouge basically is what he said get it out there and see what happens so I think that is definitely going to be um a common theme sounds like people are are definitely loving it this guy hoop should be booted no we gotta keep hoop
In the mix it’s my guy but you know I definitely appreciate Alex and I love doing stuff like this so maybe more on that in the future but for today we’ll get to it let’s finally do this what they’ve been all waiting for uh you know let’s talk
About Jimmy Stanger and his recent performances no I’m just kidding that that’s not what people want to talk about let’s talk about Scotty Sheffer and just so people watching know we do know the winner of the annual membership we did the random so we have the winner of the annual membership we’ll announce
That later on in the show but let’s talk about Scotty I always you know I I call it a Tambo tangent I made that up today but basically just go on about this because there’s two things one he’s 13k so he has to win or you or he’s useless
So you can’t you know if he doesn’t win you don’t need Scotty sheffler that’s first conversation second one is around um you know just the the general piece of people almost have like a broken app or a broken you know DraftKings site or whatever like it’s all in fade there is
No in between you’re not allowed to play them 26% you can’t play them 75% it’s just Locker fade what are we doing with Scotty it’s like the automatic first thought so let’s talk about it from that perspective and then you can apply it to me you’ve got the I want to hear about
The gpp scores I want to hear about sort of what you think when it comes to that stuff and then we’ll go through the upper tier including WAMS injury we’ll talk about theala and zalot torus but first take on these the two items of locker fade do you have to you know sort
Of go there I know I think I know the answer but I’ll get your take and then also um the first part that I was talking about as well it’s interesting because we were having this conversation in our Discord on ftn earlier today and we do ownership for both single entry
And mme contests and I’m a big believer that small changes in ownership can lead to big changes in the optimal strategy if I had to guess right now I would say I am fading Scotty in single entry and playing 100% Scotty in mme because we
Have him at 46% in mme 56% in single entry and to me the the you know the turning point is somewhere in between their probably 50 51% almost exactly in between so I think fade on single play in MMA okay I like that take what do um
The gpp scores entail maybe just talk a little bit about that as well and then how you would U apply that when it comes to something like this situation where I’ll start is is talking about even different DFS Sports so if you think about like Christian mcaffrey
In NFL DFS he is going to help your lineup he’s gonna help you get takedowns Far more often than he’s going to SN your lineup and this is also true of like like the you know $4,000 point guard in NBA who’s going to play 35 minutes in Tyrese halton’s absence or
Something like that right yep in golf now Scotty’s a bit of an exception here but the vast majority of players are more likely to fail which we can Define pretty easily as a miscut then they are to deliver some kind of ceiling performance which I Define as somewhere
Between a top five and a top 10 depending on the player’s price so for example um I think one of the the best examp examples of bad chalk this year was Eric Cole at the cognizant he was I think 27% and we had him at 10% for a top five
And 30% for a Mis cut so literally three times as likely to fail as to give you the type of ceiling performance that you need to help you take down the tournament like that to me just screams fade and I think one of the reasons why
The gpp scores do a really good job of this is that it’s not just about what the players in your lineup do it’s also about what the players that aren’t in your lineup do and the easiest weeks to get a takedown in PGA are when you have
A six for six and only 5% of the field does right so you need chalk to fail to improve your odds of getting a takedown and if you’re playing a 27% guy who’s 30% likely to miss the cut then you are sacrificing the opportunity to be on the
Correct side of a major chalk piece failing and and tanking you know the six per six maybe from 15% to 5 per. so I will say this I really love the CMC sort of analogy that you put up there because I can really relate to that I think lots
Of people that play PGA DFS typically sort of run it like you know even myself back when I was working full-time and in the car dealerships at the different places I worked at I was like it was nice about PGA and NFL to have the sort
Of weekend Sports you could just do in the evenings get ready for it and I I do think that’s a a good example and okay so Billy says is actually a poor example despite scoring that he actively hurt you all but three weeks because at 10K
You need 40 from him you don’t though that’s not true that’s say that’s I think that’s a misconception because it’s not just about what he does it’s about what your lineup as a whole does and so if he gives you 25 and you get the contrarian upside wide receiver
At 5K with the 100 yard two touchdown game like that’s the piece that’s going to win you tournaments you’re not asking CMC to win you the week just like we’re not necessarily asking Sheffer to win us the week this week we might just be asking him to do well enough such that
If we have let’s say you know Bo Hustler at 7% in $8,700 and he gets second place and is a huge piece who are we surrounding him with what probability are the guys around him to have success and in that case that’s where Sheffer
Can be a good play too and so it worked out even better because you sort of said what I was about to say from Billy’s comment I mean Billy might be throwing that out there as what we’re making fun of with the Scotty stuff where it’s like
You just said it’s not what Scotty does as much as what everyone does around him where it gets so confused is people say he has to win in order to be there we literally just saw last week Xander who by the way did not need that T5 run he
Could have finished 10th or 12th probably and and did a little bit of a run but not the big one and still been involved because it was just the way the week set up it’s what did the others do around him so you really got to think it’s not about necessarily just Scotty
But first off what does wendam theala and zal and some of those other guys mean to you are they close to him or not like how do you see it that’s how you got to portray it first of all second of all and I talked about this on the show
Earlier with mayo and as the week went on it was more clear to me kind of your mme approach that I I I don’t lock but I do like going a little bit overweight or or enough overweight and like a ROM at the Mexico open or back in the day you’d
Have guys at uh who was it was it DJ at the RBC Canadian open I forget who was always crushing it there but like that type of setup where at least I’d consider it the thing is here we have a ton of guys from 7500 and Below which is
Sort of The Sweet Spot of where you’re gonna end up in Scotty lineup so I kind of like your single entry versus mme take because of that let’s flip it an ass because I mean that’s a lot on Scotty if other people have stuff we could talk about it it’s like that’s a
Really good break that I think for how you should handle it but real quick the next topic that comes up with this and why we’ll spend more time at the top this week is not just the Clark injury I’ll go there in a second but Scotty sheffer’s win Equity is enormous right
He’s a three to one favorite it is like ROM in Mexico Back in the Day stuff like that but like Tony feno took down ROM in Mexico that year one year that was second the other year first of the year after so the the question I would have
Is if you’re not starting with Scotty in single entry not who your picks are what not we do here but of knowing that you’re taking that much win Equity out of your lineup how are you making up for it or what’s sort of your game plan process-wise going in knowing that
That’s missing in in theory though the whole point is if you’re saying he’s not winning then that win Equity doesn’t actually truly exists so therefore the other stuff but but go ahead let’s talk about that a little bit as well where I’ll start is that I our models almost
Think that three to one shows value on him we’ve got him at 26.2% to win can’t remember a number even getting close to that like this is this is nuts not just how well he’s playing but also then you throw him in a field like this of course
That kind of fits him I mean I I don’t think people realize it he’s number one in our Strokes gained around the green projection this week like the guy isn’t just dominant ball striking his short game is also potentially the best in the world he’s just unbelievable T to Green
Um but yeah it’s a it’s a really good question if you’re not going there how do you make up for it I think the way you make up for it is made cut odds like you have to if you’re not playing Scotty you have to try and win this week by
Having a solid six for six where everybody does well and maybe you don’t have the winner but maybe you have four guys in the top 10 or something like that and there are ways where you can build a really strong just lineup of made cut odds where it doesn’t include
Scotty but like even there he’s got a enormous Advantage almost a 13 percentage Point advantage over the second most likely to make the cut which is winham Clark at 78 and a half% we’ve got Scotty at 92 which again is just stupid High I don’t even think you can
Make this work Nick like you said it’s like 26 27% in a lot of places technically obviously you can there’s 74% out there I’m saying but also salary constraints right so I I didn’t look at it to give the true answer but my point of saying about the the salary
Constraints matter I’m not sure if you’ll be able to get there but I like what Alex said I actually I would lean that angle as well from a DFS perspective of saying then you really got to Hope remember there’s two angles to this too and I joked about this one
With mayo today but like there’s a lot of Scotty lineups that are going to bust because of what you have to force in to make it all work even people that say well I know score Scotty’s gonna be 40% let me get a bunch of him and and like
Let me or sorry let me lock him in and get a bunch of guys around him and what they’re going to do is get a bunch of different roster constructions a bunch of different punt plays where a lot of those turn into five of six four of six
Maybe three of six or worse and then those lineups are all dead too so then it cuts the Scotty number down maybe it’s I’m going to call him scy now because Scotty’s gonna be 40 but I don’t know if he’s actually going to be 40% I’ll ask you that as the last question
What do you think his ownership’s actually going to come in at in like the large field and what do you think it’s gonna be in the small field I was about to ask you the exact same question U I think you mentioned a couple numbers
Though I think you said like maybe 42 or 56 like Mayo thought he could push 65 to 70 that’s why I asked in single entry smaller field so I’ve got him at 47% in mme right now and 56% in single entry and that that single entry is for like
The $12 the big $12 single entry or could even apply to the Mayo or I guess that contest doesn’t exist anymore but what used to be the pet Mayo open um in higher Stakes I think it like the the $200 single entry with 277 people is my
Favorite contest to do each week I think there he could be 60 to 65 no problem yeah I think one thing that’s worth noting about this week’s pricing is yeah Scotty’s at 13 but then there’s over a $2,000 Gap to the next guy and there are only I believe 13 players above the
Average uh price per player in a lineup this week like 83 33 or something like that so it’s actually going to be fairly easy for people to add Scotty which is why I think his ownership is going to be much higher than we’ve seen anybody else
This year and and that’s why for me in single entry like he’s just such an easy click that I think I’m going to fade him in single entry and the thing too I think last thing on it and we’ll talk Clark’s injury tal alores but if he ends
Up coming in at 48 and just surprises you completely you like you said like it’s probably not Crossing 50 I know that you know cutting hairs splitting hairs between sorry 48 and 51 who gives a [ __ ] I always say that that’s whatever but the good news is at least you’ll be
If you were locked in and you’re all in on them you still have leverage you still have double the field on that spot so you have to feel pretty good about it if that does Trend upward if it goes down you’re not mad because then you thought he actually should have been
Closer to that number you went out because he’s 41 and you’re like wow I got him at this and then for those fading him I think we gave some good ideas around that quick thoughts on the Windham Clark stuff because obviously a lot of people were liking him here
Setting up well I think he was going to be pushing close to 25 20 22 to 30 if I want to put a wider range is sort of where I could see him coming in at now you got to think with even the even DraftKings popped on the Q tag going
Back to football for a second here the Q tag got popped on and what what’s your take on how that affects Clark and then give us a quick take on theala and zalot Torus there’s a saying in golf Beware of the sick or injured golfer which basically
Says when a guy is is thinking about like a nagging injury or an illness they’re not thinking about all the different ways that their next swing could go wrong or something like that and so it almost can help people now this is probably applies more to you
Know the Casual golfer who is the one getting in their own head and making mistakes that way but I I am at least 90% of the time in favor of playing a guy who has some kind of injur or some kind of illness as long as the ownership
Is reacting to that like we’ve got him at 34% in single entries 30% in mme if that drops to 20% each I’m gonna be playing a lot of Windham Clark if it stays around where it is I’m not going to play him but not necessarily because I’m worried about the injury just
Because I think that ownership is already too high um so I I’m definitely of the case that as long as the guys’s teting it up I don’t really care what he’s going through okay and quick thoughts on theala and zalot torus I am going to throw one in the chat for sure
And let the chat think about this one for a second we’re going to switch it up not keeper cut choker or closer theala man I felt so bad for the guy at the waist management a couple years ago there when he had it on 17 and it was
Like trending and then just hard left into the water but man I do like this guy I love his talent I love his personality family stuff going out there with his you know his mom his dad everybody’s out there with them like just awesome to see but talk to me quick
On theala and zot Torres to round out this range and we’ll speed it up some of these other ranges I’m just more curious to see what people think G has been one of our absolute favorites at ftn this season from the start of the year and at the beginning
Of the year was as simple as he’s got one of the highest event to event standard deviations of any player on tour and we were all pretty aware of where like the center of all these guys distributions are it’s pretty easy to just look at a player Strokes game look
At their form and say okay he’s this good or he’s that good um I don’t think people pay enough attention to the full range of outcomes for players his incredibly High volatility gives a pretty high ceiling he’s got I think four top 10 already this year something
Like that so we’re seeing it in action and part of that is because he’s turned one of his biggest weaknesses or actually his biggest weakness which was one of the bigger weaknesses of any like upper echelon player on tour his driving accuracy a year ago he’s turned that
Into a strength of his he’s he’s now we have him more accurate than Windam Clark off the T we have him more accurate than Tony feno and Jason day off the te he’s he’s really come a long long way in in that regard every part of his game now
Is super solid he’s I think we have him as the second best putter in this field like he’s just all around a fantastic golf for now still has that volatility which gives a really nice ceiling so I love the Goa pretty much every week um 23% ownership is a little bit high for
Me but right now like I think there’s a good chance he’ll be my my first guy into single entries if I’m not playing Scotty yeah and it looks too like zal is probably coming in under theala for maybe what what you’d be raing out but I bet you the ownership’s coming in about
The same so any any quick thoughts on zalot torus before we move to these nks yeah we do have him lower owned than than theala but I’m I’m just not as high as most on zot Tores um I think the biggest reason for that is I tend to
Care more about around the green play than most people do and like for all the the crap that Victor hin has gotten for his short game I think there are two players who have deserved just as much Flack for a bad short game zotor and Colin orawa and they just haven’t
Received it for some reason I think part of it is that they also both have a putting issue at times that havland hasn’t so like there’s only been one issue that people can steer to steer towards for havland there are two that they can go to with zotor and morawa but
Until zotor is short game gets better I don’t see him you know being as successful as people want him to be okay let’s move on let’s go to this 9k range we got Pho down to Tom hogi what stands out to you in this Ranger what are some
Of the thoughts you have Within These four what is there one two three four five six seven guys six guys I think have you seen the uh the interview I’m I’m gonna just keep making these football comparisons apparently did you see the interview with with Harbaugh
Today I did not yet no I was uh recording earlier at the studio he talked about um like potentially drafting offensive lineman basically his point was there’s only one unit on a football team that can play well regardless of who else is around them and that their play effect
Everybody else the offensive line and in golf the same sort of thing exists there’s only one aspect of a player’s game that is independent of all everything else they do on the course and affects everything else they do on the course and that is driving the ball
If you drive the ball really well you’re set up for Success so we’ve been incredibly high on Keith Mitchell for a long time we’re high on him again this week the the surprise in this range for me is that Alex norin is raing really well for us uh you know he’s he’s been
Solid this year hasn’t hasn’t done anything crazy he’s another guy who’s just all around a very good player I think the the thing that stands out for me and uh I I write a hot takes article every Wednesday and I I put this in the article today which is in past years I
Probably would have said I don’t care that norin is low owned he doesn’t have the ceiling I’m looking for from an expensive low owned player my thoughts have kind of evolved on that which as I talked about earlier like now one of the things I’m trying to do all the time is
Get a six for six when everybody else has has a low six for six percentage MH and norn is kind of the perfect piece for that he’s fifth in our expected Strokes gained he’s fifth in our made cut odds and he’s low owned uh so I think he’s a really nice contrarian
Piece especially if you’re not using Scotty and you’re going balanced where you just want like all six of your golfers to have a chance to get a top 10 yeah and I think that’s the thing too like we talked a little bit about him today as a prime example like even again
He can fit in as your third guy as your second guy depending on what you want to do down low but I mean if you’re trying to get away from the Scotty version and use him in that way then you’re fitting in a more balanced build so he doesn’t have to be
The Driver of that lineup meaning the guy that actually comes out and wins and gets the job done it’s more of the setup that he’s gonna be a guy that is really solid can surprise some people too it’s like you said you’re sort of busting up some of those Scotty if you’re going
Away from Scotty in this sense it’s you’re busting up some of those Scotty lineups that did have to punt a bunch of spots because of the 13k price tag if you’re going with Scotty it’s another way to get different because then you’re saying you pretty much are thinking
Scotty or norin at that point and you already got a ton of win Equity just off of Scotty alone so I definitely think that’s one mentioned fow switching driver fow Mitchell quick thoughts Mitchell any thoughts on him being lower owned coming off that rough Sunday that we talked about earlier there are a
Number of guys this week that I think they have a much wider range of outcomes with their ownership than usual and and Keith is one of them uh the other one who I think we should talk about is Jake knp I don’t know what to think of nap
This week but but I don’t think Mitchell will be super contrarian but I also don’t see him being anywhere near as popular as he would have been if he had just kind of cruised to a top five finish last week as it kind of looked like he was going to do before he
Finished birdie birdie eagle to close out the Saturday round yeah one thing about a guy being a quote unquote choker to to the public view he coughs up some ownership percentage as well typically you don’t really see uh the same ownership the next week out so could
Definitely agree on that um there’s guys in here like you said this is sort of the range I would hit on just quickly just talk about the setup of like fow SEIU Jason day norin all these guys it it really is going to be interesting to
Get your take when we get to the 8K because the 8ks is kind of like The Darlings but starting to see it that I just can’t see them getting into as many lineups as maybe I thought to start the week because it’s like Jagger Hustler Ry Rogers gim these are people usually guys
Are interested in playing but I just don’t know if that’s going to be the case this week and even if you go with the balance 9k build you put a fena day norin or a day norin and then Dro down whatever you end up doing there if
You’re going away from Scotty and more balanced you still almost end up leaving that 8K range so apply what we talked about to this 8K range with the guys that it looks just like sort of Tony feno down to nap well there is two or three guys that probably have little to
To less ownership it does look pretty balanced for ownership across the board at least to me yeah I would even say that there are there are more under owned guys at least like per capita in the K range than any other range where it just seems like for
Whatever reason a lot of these guys are being skipped over Bosler Aaron Ry horel even Patrick Rogers who I almost never play uh he’s got a positive gpp score this week it just seems like people are going to try and go Scotty and then one
Of Windam fala alator fow or seu Kim is somebody that we have projected for more ownership than I think like any other site that I’ve seen um hope I’m right about that because we’ve got him fourth in expected Strokes gained WI probability and made cut odds so if he’s
Not more uh popular than than people are expecting I will be upset that I don’t have more of him um but yeah the the AK range is really really interesting and then man there’s Jake naap again where it’s I he could be the best play in this
Slate he could be the worst play in this slate explain that further because I think that people we always have the joke don’t sleep on Jake nap but like you know that was the week he goes out and wins and so now it’s like you know had other good weeks going into that
There was definitely some pieces and some conversations around him pieces coming out of content things where people were talking about his story which is interesting but it’s like then it’s kind of like he was playing Rory and even Rory was making comments on the guy like this guy’s solid he could be
Very good and it’s that’s why it’s kind of funny that you said that he could be the best could be the worst so maybe elaborate on that a little than any of the other gpp scores in this range that pop so nap nap’s about like 20 yards
Longer than the average player on tour which is a huge Advantage I mean we we’ve got that equating to like4 to.5 Strokes per round the problem is in the last two events he’s kind of ditched the driver for what he calls a mini driver and he’s like trying to steer it into
Play it looks like he has completely lost his distance advantage in the last two events he is gaining zero yards on the field and he’s not become more accurate off the te in fact he’s become less accurate part of that is he had the the the the sixth hole at Bay Hill where
He put four in drink I think it was but even if you throw that out of the sample he hasn’t been as accurate in the last two weeks as he was prior to that at least like in his really good four five week run something like that so we now
Get to a golf course where it seems like most of the field is aware of the fact that you just want to bomb it and you shouldn’t be as concerned about accuracy off the te we’re coming from two courses particularly uh sress where accuracy was at a premium and distance didn’t matter
As much so if nap puts the mini driver away and just PPS away the Big Driver I think he’s one of the better plays in the Slate but then you also have uh like I mentioned Mitchell’s ownership had a pretty wide range of outcomes I think naps is super wide it wouldn’t surprise
Me if he’s under 10% because he’s been as bad as he has in the last two weeks it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s 20% 25% because everyone knows oh length is important nap is crazy long so I don’t I don’t know like if if you get him using
The mini driver at high ownership you’re going to hate yourself if you get him using the Big Driver at low ownership he’s the best play on the Slate so I don’t know what to do with him that that’s some extra insight there and I definitely like that breakdown again
Sometimes you just that’s the unknowns of it all almost like going back to be Beware of the injured golfer we see some oh Scotty’s neck is screwed oh yeah but then he still wins the tournament it’s like that things happen all the time it
Can go one way or the other but same in this you’re not really going to get that much Insight typically so definitely love the breakdown here a lot of people like said this this love hearing this kind of info you and Alex are killing it
Bro love if you guys do love this stuff I want to see more of it I’m I’m open to it for sure love getting on here talking with my guy Alex catching up getting to ask some different insight and be able to apply it to DFS so make sure you
Smash that like button subscribe to the channel always going to try and bring you guys more of this content try and put one of the better products out there that we can so I want to make sure of that so uh put it in the drink it’s such
An awesome phrase says go collect yeah jnp did just that quite a few times that day but like you said you gotta sort of sometimes wipe that out he was laughing himself he was smiling at the end of that hole it’s like what do you do the
Guy literally just won on tour it’s like that’s just the way it goes you win a gpp the next week you get crushed it’s like well it’s the way it goes but that win last week felt pretty good it’s like it’s all you can do is laugh you
Definitely have to have a strong mindset that’s another thing I would equate to sort of the DFS versus the golf not comparing them at all but mindset wise I think it’s important you do have to be able just let things go move on to the next hole same thing in DFS with
Especially with PGA DFS you just have to let things go move on to the next slate there’s Showdown slates there’s next week’s classic there’s lots of events and try and have one go your way so um this range I think is going to be overlooked I’ll have it in my slate plan
Up after this I’ll get it done on the site but just to say it like besides maybe horel who I could see swing up a little bit and then people usually do like stuff like hosler in Texas so there’ll be similar situational stuff there I think there’s going to be at
Least a a bunch of these guys I will say should be kept in check and then guys like Patrick Rogers maybe it’s Jake knap that end up being the ones it coming lower than expected because kittama I thought was getting a little bit of a boost as well did you have anything on
Him quick before we go to the sevens yeah I’ve got kyama and Hughes as the two most popular in this range and then Doug gim is also like right there so I I think you said it really well it’s like they’re all kind of keeping each other in check and we’re pretty much
Guaranteed to have a couple of these guys really slip through the cracks yeah and that was what I was saying earlier just to go back to the theme of the week that everyone that miss the Mayo show or doesn’t watch or whatever it might be that’s fine but like the body lineups
Are typically going Five sevenk Guys or like a 9k and a 10K one of a 9k or a 10K guy and dropping down and that’s where like you said in single entry just get those six of sixes F like again single entry get one shot get a lineup where
You feel you can get a made cut to make it a six to six was a better way to word it but just to say where you’re like you know you’re not you’re still scared shitless of Scotty sheffler of course but it’s like this the setup is as he’s
Pressuring in on Friday afternoon and able to get through you’re hoping that those lineups are busting in at least one if not two other spots while you’re creeping du with a six to six where you never know what happens if a guy’s feeling good after two days and go out
And put up a weekend and Scotty can fall back a little bit in round three make it up on round four still have that Xander T5 but may not be needed in that case because of the other stuff that happens again we don’t know the end of what the
Puzzle actually looks like until the end of the week when the puzzle is built for us we all have the same puzzle we all have the same amount of time as I always give this analogy but we have no idea what the final puzzle’s supposed to look
Like we have an idea of what we’re going to want it to look like and if it ends up that way it’s whoever gets closest to that when the Box turns over at the end of all four rounds so um definitely like your thoughts in that range give me the
Sevenk range what’s uh some of the guys that stand out here for you there are a number of guys in this range uh I might even cheat and go into the sixks a little bit that that stand out to me more for being over owned than anyone
Stands out as being under owned I think okay T Taylor Moore is somebody that I you know we were on him both pre-tournament and hit him again live last year when he won the Val spars like he’ll always have a great place in my heart but he seems a little bit over
Owned to me this week uh Joel Damon definitely seems over owned and then going into the sixk Sam Ryder and Andrew Novak both at 6900 seem a little bit over owned to me and again that’s that’s not because I don’t think they are projecting the best in that range it’s
Just the difference between the way that they project and everybody else isn’t worth the difference in their ownership like we’ve got uh you know both of these guys about 4% chance of a top five and like a 45% chance of a miscut that shouldn’t be 15% owned so that’s why I
Won’t be on those guys spencon looks pretty good to me Ryan fox looks pretty good I think Luke list is probably the one who stands out to me the most he’s got the length we want here the only thing he doesn’t have as the short game but like even his putting has
Dramatically turned around from what it used to be a lot of that seems like it’s just been you know a really hot putter for a week that we can’t depend on but at the very least at least we’re seeing evidence that he can Spike like that
With a putter which we didn’t for years yeah and I think too one of the things there obviously it’s tough and a week like this could be even tougher but the setup of a guy like luk list is you want him just firing away and then hitting
Those greens and then we don’t need the around the green game as much we need the putts to drop or sometimes those powers can play out till you get to a hole that you can start to capitalize on so it’s like but that’s fine two if he
Wants to you know put it to 30 feet because he missed the missed the Fairway this time but then he can get that 30-footer close tap it in it’s like okay we just move on to the next one unless you know it’s holes that everybody’s scoring on then you sort of start to
Fall behind any quick thoughts for these guys I had on my list to check off but uh Ben Griffin OE batia and Davis Thompson were three guys that were standing out there that I was just curious to get your take on I haven’t finalized anything yet on my end but
Just quick thoughts on those three Ben Griffin looks really solid he has a positive gpp score uh it’s rare to get a positive gpp score by the way um Mo most of them are going to be negative because most guys are going to be over owned so
I like Ben Griffin a lot o is kind of like right on the line where I think that there are enough guys around him that his ownership’s going to be kept in check uh we’ve got him at 12% if he got to 15 wouldn’t really like me if he gets
Under 10% I would definitely like him uh Davis Thompson was another one you said another slightly positive gpp score so Thompson looks looks really good in fact Thompson is tied with Luke list for our highest Strokes gain projection of anybody under $8,000 who was that sorry the chat got
Me here for a second who was the last one I heard yeah he’s still a positive but then you said one line after that what was the second part the the second part of that was that uh Thompson is actually tied with Luke list for our highest expected Strokes gain projection under
$8,000 which is cool because that’s the the other interesting part about that area is like Taylor Moore is in that space Luke list who we talking with OE is there so it’s kind of like how is that actually going to set up but I definitely think uh that’s a possibility
This the one that got me said if you lost five months straight you in pgfs then grew a beard you already have one two gpps back to back would you shave the beard going into the third week now Scotty did look like it could grow back in pretty quickly so whatever he did
Fine but not sure if you saw that obviously he did uh trim up the beard would you do that or does that just prove all the people out there that don’t want to change their logo in DFS like oh I can’t change my logo it’s lucky it’s like yeah it does it matter
Scotty won the Players last year with no beard won the Players this year with a beard does it matter he changed his quote unquote logo if you will well listen I’m the guy who doesn’t shape when my Philadelphia teams are in the playoffs until they’re they get
Eliminated or win so I I would not be shaving like Scotty did okay so you do do you believe it’s not quite but the power of the mush do you think Discord chats saying you know wow Scott you know this guy’s killing it after nine holes
If he makes four birdies would you say don’t talk about it because now you’re going to screw him up or do you think it’s just whatever happens happens I I’m going to cheat with my answer which is I believe both sides I get irritated if I see someone mush somebody that I have
But I also think that the reason why we believe in that sort of thing is just confirmation bias yes and I don’t think that Scotty Shefler after a hot front nine is having a rough back nine because the ftn or the ship Nation Discord had had a conversation around him playing
Well for that for that matter so I I always getting [ __ ] for that one but I have some phone with it just to talk about it um very interesting this is insane and cannot make this stuff up so I have to do this right now but the winner of the draw that got
Sent to me actually just hopped in here so Ryan Fedor Fedor however you say it I apologize but congrats to Ryan Ryan actually won and I will say this when you do a giveaway that says tag one of your friends who could use this probably don’t tag yourself it’s a member giving
Back the goal is to give back Ryan ended up I went back and checked it and it said uh you know he did have someone that he was giving it to so he qualified on everything but he said uh he plays a lot and everything there so congrats to
Ryan anyway shout out to Ryan Ryan won the annual membership the 509 it’s 599 retail but he’s gonna get everything all sports so Ryan reach out to me or the shipet nation X account and you guys can follow there we’re gonna have a ton more giveaways like I said MLB’s back MLB
Only that stuff launches tomorrow we’ve got when we get to 7,000 going to be doing a bunch more giveaways upcoming but congrats to Ryan uh just to keep it moving though we’ll go to the 6K range I guess um I didn’t have much else there I
Think the 7ks you kind of covered what I was looking at I think um you know realistically some of those guys will be interesting I was going to say in that 7.3 to 7.6 range because does OA steal some from Taylor Moore and in the end Taylor Moore actually is a little bit
Better or does Luke list pick up some because people agree with you and all of that and we we’re you know Mondos in here we’re we’re trying to be one for the people says have you ever played with battley have you played no no I I’ve played with a couple tour guys never
With bads any that you can mention or any stories yeah I played uh let’s see I played with Zack Blair at Us open qualifying I played with um Denny McCarthy at Us open qualifying Billy Hurley at Us open qualifying I play with Tom Whitney on a
Uh or Tom love lady on a mini Tour event in Florida I I’ll tell you the the best story that I have I think is in US Open sectionals I was playing with Zack Blair I was playing right behind Troy Merritt Tony F now and Jamie sidowski the long
Drive guy this was probably five years ago something like that so this was before Tony fow was Tony fow but like we knew he was going to be great just wasn’t exempt yet into the US Open but we knew how long he was already and so
The the 10th hole we’re about to start our second 18 of the day the 10th hole the t-box is right next to the putting green there’s like a top tier of the putting green that is immediately next to the the scoring tent on 10 so we’re
10 minutes from teting off so I’m just up at that corner of the putting green watching the guys tea off and there’s this huge wind coming in off the left and the Fairway there’s like a a big Plateau type Hill on the left side then
Feeds all the way down to the right and fenale blasts one to the top of the hill and the scorer looks over me and goes I haven’t seen anyone get to the top of the hill this afternoon said lowski comes up the long drive guy he tees off
You could hear the ball whistle through the air over our heads unbelievable and flew the entire Hill in the air like 60 yards in the air Beyond Tony feno and he shot like 78 78 because he just couldn’t do anything after that but but man I I
Will never forget the sound of that golf ball like holy hell that was something that’s the best part you know when somebody’s good when when you hear it come out it almost like takes off like a jet because it’s like goes all the way up with it so yeah that’s awesome man uh
Someone ask was a Troy Meritt flowchart week that week I always love my guy Merritt if he’s in the field and he’s cheap and it’s a birdie Fest I think you should get in on the action but let’s talk about the 6K range you talked about
Already some of the guys that be over owned I mentioned earlier that this six point sort of 6K actually really all of it six to 6.9 this week a lot of them could have been 7K it’s just they cut the 7K range off at 18 guys so quick
Thoughts on this 6K range and then we’ll have a discussion about the six and fives to round it out yeah honestly one thing that I’ve been toying with is the idea that you probably can play Scotty in single entry even if you think he’s going to be like 70% owned because there
Are a number of guys in this range that do have positive gpp scores for us that we know like look Nat might be 7% he might be 20% you know AA batia might be 9% he might be 15% we can be pretty damn sure that these 6K guys are going to be
3% or 5% and they’re not going to be double digits so Robert McIntyre stands out to me uh Silverman Bud colie Matthew nemith there there’re a lot of names I’d even say gcko uh Pat’s guy sunun Kim could even take a risk on Dunlap I’m
Which I’m going to do in mme for sure like there are a number of guys here who probably should be 5% and they’re going to be 2% and so at least in mme they’re easy guys to take chances on yeah I like like that call uh the Dunlap one is
Obviously a winner already this season as an amateur so that’s kind of crazy but like some of the other stuff down here um I heard some talks about gdup uh I guess if you could check these guys for him this kind of a fun way to do it
But like gup is one who’s the guy who said oh bramlet uh I think you talked about him already but I just want to get a double check on him because he has 100 bucks more than Silverman and then um interesting take but just a quick conversation around Peter malady coming
Off the win how does that shake like how do you see that stuff too so go ahead on those three I I definitely say uh this is one of the few things that Justin and I my my co-host again on Prov Pro that we tend to disagree with he doesn’t like
Playing guys after win I love doing it um I I don’t know that I’ll go to MTI here but if I don’t it’s not because he won last week it’s just because I don’t think he’s as good as the finishes that he’s had recently but man they’re tough
To ignore so I I’ll definitely be overweight in mme not going there in single entry um you also mentioned bramlet who appears to be one of the more popular guys in this range but it’s not like he’s going to be crazy owned and he does project well for us I also
Like the fact that he’s he’s a guy who typically outperforms his real life leaderboard position in DraftKings points just because he makes a lot of birdies um and who oh you also mentioned gdup um yeah just gdup was one that was mentioned I know Mayo liked today too
And he 6100 so he’s sort of at the bottom there I guess there’s the Michael Kim love if you want to compare those two GD up and Michael Kim round it out the the only thing I like about gup is the distance uh he’s a very similar
Player I think to Garrick heo with the exception that he Go’s a better putter so I I I’d prefer he go there he’s also I think going to be slightly lower owned than than got her up Michael Kim slightly positive gpp score so solid there he’s got good projections uh he’s
He doesn’t necessarily like fit the coar fit bill in that he’s not long off the te but he’s one of the more solid all-around players in this price range so you can definitely go to him as well yeah and if you give any points in the scores for x or Twitter whatever you
Want to call it uh love that he gives out there lately he’s been on fire those threads and the posts and stuff that he puts out so love to see that the interview that Mayo did with him was awesome as well I’m sure you love that
If you I’m guessing you took it in as as a pro golfer to watch and see just him how he talked about it just you don’t see enough of that stuff so love to see that kind of angle of approach let’s move on let’s finalize in this 5K range
At an hour we always try to keep it under an hour but don’t mind this because we went into some other different topics that I think people enjoyed and liked there’s still lots of people here watching again if you’re just joining us you’ve been here a while
Do us that favor hit that like button it does help us out grow the channel from the Subscribe button that’s free to do and more shows like this will come your way uh the more we grow the more we show I always say it that way we can do more
Shows all that stuff and get more fun guests on for you uh Robbie Shelton was popping up at the top I think some people are bringing up him I know you brought up your Albatross earlier Maybe that’s why even the the PGA Tour has like a new person running it you could
Tell and they called it Albatross and not Double Eagle so you love to see that um you know there’s going to be a lot of guys that don’t really fit the course setup here but then some people will just pop because they’re bombers different stuff like that who are some
Of these guys in the 5Ks and then curious if you have any takes on just how they’ve done this pricing because how many this week let me see 63 guys just get thrown in the bottom of this field it’s like whatever but uh any quick takes on that as well maybe more actually
67 I’ll start with I love the change that they made to the pricing I think that it’s opened up a lot of different types of builds like it used to be either stars and scrubs or balanced and now I think there are a lot of different types of lineups that you can build
Where you know going going into the 5Ks once is like going into the 7ks three times to save money or something like that right so you you just you get a lot U more variations of lineup types which I really enjoy I think it it just adds
To the puzzle of building a lineup each week um as far as individual players goes Shelton does not rate very well he just doesn’t drive the ball well enough for for us to like him Dunlap is my guy in this range as I mentioned uh there
There are two things that I want to see from a really young player to believe that he can be a quality player from the get-go that is does he have speed off the te and can he make putts dlap is one of the better Putters in the field
Already and we know he’s got the speed off the te like he was matching Sam Burns uh shot for shot shot in terms of ball speed off the te in that event when when he won it so I really like his talent I like the fact that his event to
Event standard deviation is super high so far which of course you’re gonna get when he’s he goes you know win dead last win dead last whatever so I’m a Believer in his talent I think that he’ll eventually be like a $7,800 player not a $5,800 player which is
Basically what we’re looking for down here um yeah there are a lot of guys like Johnny Vegas is an interesting one um so good off the te that he’s always going to rate kind of well for us but then he’s just downright terrible on in around the greens the thing about Johnny
Though is when he plays well he’s making so many birdies that if he finishes 50th he’s probably 30th in DraftKings points so you just have to kind of like plug your nose close your eyes and play him and hope that he makes the cut and if he
Does you know he’s going to do pretty well he’s also I think there for a really good show down Target even if you don’t have the stomach to play him on Main sleep yeah one quick last thing I’ll say is about the pricing CU you talked about it there without going too
Much into it but like the the Shelton thing where maybe he’s only two or two and a half% but like when someone’s already that not saying it’s too high already again you can make an argue because it’s nothing there’s 98% not playing but I’m saying it’s a setup of
You know that two can turn into three or three and a half versus a guy like Dunlap if you’ve got him at like 0 four or0 five it’s like he’s just what’s he gonna go to0 eight point set like he’s just not moving and you can kind of get
A better feel going in of saying I feel better about playing this guy from this spot that’s that’s kind of the setup I see yeah and not only that but I’m I’m also a big proponent of thinking about ownership not just in its raw sense but in its like conditional sense so for
Example who are the people who are playing Robbie Shelton people playing Robbie Shelton are probably doing it to help fit Scotty sheffler right so his ownership might be 2% but if you’re going to him because you have Scotty you need savings now your effective ownership might be more like four to 6%
Because everybody who is playing Scotty or everybody who is playing Robbie is also going to Scotty so you don’t care about his overall ownership you care about his ownership among people who are playing Scotty yeah those it’s a you know some of the the stacks if you will
But it’s it’s kind of like combo packs within it because like you said how many people are playing Robbie well it’s 2% but 90% of those people playing him are putting in with Scotty right away and that’s using that to make it work not many people are playing them and going
Different that’s where the whole levels to the roster construction come in or why I always say like someone says well you can’t just match the field on Scotty and on paper and for a beginning player coming in starting out in PJ DFS I think you should be looking to get leverage um
On like that exact example to say like you’re in on Scotty I get that or you’re out but when you’re talking about it where okay of the 40% 80% of those lineups are good that there’s 20% you can just throw out the window out of the gate they’re just
Built poorly or there’s too much chalk or no real outs to the top for these top heavy Fields all of that stuff you can actually find angles where you could come in with like 35% sheffler it’s someone say well you didn’t even match the field you’re actually like slightly
Underweight it’s like yeah but I feel very confident about my builds or maybe your opposite percentage you have 65 of Scotty you’ve got your your number you’re not locking but you’re overweight you’re good and the other 35% You’re Building are lineups like that where most people who are using bramlet or
Shelton or someone down there are putting Scotty you’re looking to see what’s the best bramlet lineup without Scotty for me what’s the best Shelton lineup without Scotty how can I make this work and what does that really look like so some stuff man I’ll let you take
It away anything final that you have before we get out of here I know this went a little bit longer but definitely appreciate you hopping in stepping in for us this week we can do more shows like this in the future I think the
People liked it and I had a ton of fun just being able to pick your brain on some of these thoughts as well both real Golf and PGA DFS combined awesome stuff I appreciate it I look I knew we were gonna have a lot of fun today because I
Think one thing that you guys do really well here at chipet is uh you’re you’re always teaching people how to become better you’re teaching them how to fish you’re not just giving the plays and that’s something we care about a lot at ftn too so not surprised that we had a really
Good time on this show uh hopefully we have some more opportunities to do to the same thing as far as ftn goes I think look the biggest thing going on is it’s baseball season so Fantasy Baseball product at ftn is phenomenal Vlad Sedler does an unbelievable job with the
Product he brought in a ton of fantastic Talent we’re gonna have a weekly projection system built from our ftn data baseball projection system which drastically outperformed Vegas and and a lot of the other projection systems that exist on the market last season hopefully we can do the same sort of
Thing this year and then like I said pium games are are becoming a bigger and bigger part of our process so anyone who’s big on prize picks Underdog sleeper any of those stuff and you want to become better at at building your own slips and and enjoying the building
Process because like look all of us who are playing DFS or drafting baseball teams like we enjoy the process of building lineups of drafting of building these prize picks plays it’s not just about you know tailing winning plays we want to actually have the fun of
Building it so uh we we offer some really good stuff at ftn for that and then of course if you’re interested in the PGA stuff uh go check that out as well and then finally football season’s right around the corner so check out ftn fantasy for all the the Dynasty stuff
Rookie grades things like that draft previews all that good stuff yeah and let the people know where they can find you as well X Twitter whatever you know everyone has their own name for they they hold on to it or they’ll they’ll slide with the new one but xfk Twitter
As Elon himself called it what’s your your handle on there it’s always going to be Twitter for me Alex flick1 and you can use uh promo code f FN March for 35% off of anything on the ftn site yeah definitely check it out nice complimentary piece you can put it with
All the stuff that we’ve got going on I put up there earlier we uh we didn’t really embed it as well but I did want to show it like the projections ownership are one thing the gpp and cash core ports these are sort of like if you
Have no time you know it’s going to be people that are playing full-time diving into this stuff getting it ready for you but the stack rankings the pitcher rankings for sure two really good ones from last season the hitter rankings are there as well and then the advanced
Starting lineups page where you can go in and break it down is almost like the stone but for MLB so pga’s back you can get in the streets for PGA you can blend them both you can use code hoop 15 if you want to get 15% off the all access
That’ll take it down to just under $2 a day to get all the sports but if you want MLB only we did start it off today we’ve got the $14 a week no Discord remember with that monthly is 33 with the code mlb1 15 and the season is 195
With the code mlb1 15 thank you guys so much for watching thank you to Alex againe appreciate you stepping in and hopping in and doing the show with me we’ll do another one in the future it was a lot of fun thank you guys all for watching for Alex for myself toag and
Tambo let ship It a
9 Comments
Great show, very enjoyable.
More of this, please! 🍺
Man Alex knows his stuff. Learned a lot.
One of the best pga dfs shows I've heard in awhile explaining some game theory stuff. Nice work
Awesome show guys
What formula gives Taylor Moore a 45% chance to miss the cut? He'll definitely be alittle chalky, but 8 for 8 in made cuts this year
Fantastic podcast! Also love Alex's show pro v pro! Everyone should check it out!
Amazing show! Definitely enjoyed all the insight from Alex! Should be a fun week!
Bravo…A+++ Tambo you’re crushing it. Thanks for the sharp insight, Alex. Single best PGA show this year.