2024 Houston Open | PGA Picks | Best Fantasy Golf Picks | Pro vs Pro

Alex Blickle and Justin Bates are back to breakdown the betting slate for the 2024 Houston Open. They have PGA Course Fit, Top DFS Picks, Sleepers for thr week, and an in-depth preview of the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course. Check out all their 2024 Houston Open picks on this episode of Pro vs Pro.

Timecodes

0:00 – Intro
0:20 – Valspar Recap
6:00 – Houston Open Preview + Course Fit
19:35 – Best Bets and DFS Picks
35:28 – One and Done Picks

#pgapicks #fantasygolf #pgabets

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What’s going on everybody welcome back to Prov Pro pretty exciting week last week exciting week this week feels a little bit like we’re in a a down strrretch of the season but some big exciting news Justin and I have moved into the top 200 of the pat Mayo

Oneandone Contest out of like 4,400 some something like that so we’re making a run at this thing and uh and Justin how do you feel about cam young second place finish for we AG go well I think it just kind of speaks to like the way that we

Look at golf right is we kind of found out where we stood with everybody and then found who had the most upside right and that’s kind of why we ended up on cam young um yeah it was fun I thought he was goingon to get it done he just

Got outplayed he didn’t play Bad uh he didn’t joke he just got outplayed uh hats off to Peter Mady and and the way he played yeah I think it was on Saturday when I tweeted a picture of the leaderboard and said he’s not GNA face a path of less resistance than this one

But to monat’s credit he came out and played really well there was uh there’s a lot of talk around the industry of like oh camon can’t even get it done he’s losing to Peter Milady now and it doesn’t matter what the name of the guy is it doesn’t matter what color his golf

Ball is if he comes out and shoots four under on the final round on a really difficult Golf Course when he’s starting the day a stroke ahead of you it’s gonna be hard to track that guy down well and not just that but I mean it’s not like

This guy’s never won before it’s not like he hasn’t been on the PGA tour for for the long for a long time just because he’s not a huge name that we know of doesn’t mean that he can’t play I mean there’s a reason he’s out there so and there’s a

Reason I think there’s something to be said about the fact that he had won before as well I think that even though it was forever ago right it was nine years ago but still uh he’s a really good dude I happy to see him win one of my really good friends Michael Martinson

Caded for him for a long time um so it’s pretty fun to it’s pretty fun to see him win um yeah I mean obviously this we’d love to have seen cam young get it but if you’d have told me hey one and done you’re going to use cam young he’s going

To finish second we said we would have taken it I believe yeah a couple of the things I want to mention about this before the last round began we ran a simulation of the round kemy young was winning 7% of the time in that simulation so for him to get second and

Not the win it’s it’s really really hard to win golf tournaments it’s especially hard to win golf tournaments you’re starting the day three Strokes back and behind as many players as he was I I was pretty pleased with the with the performance gained point six Strokes for

The week putting as well so that’s now four of the last six events that he’s gained on the greens things are are looking up I think for cam yeah I agree um and there’s some discussion out there if like and and I’d like to get your

Take on this if this was an elevated event you had the best players in the world how many shots better would the winning score be three yeah I think something like that because the the course doesn’t let you go that low and sustain like there you know we we saw scores were incredibly

Bunched this week near the top um and they were bunched going into the week like where uh you know the the cut line was even par the leading score at that time was only six under so I don’t think it would have been much better um I

Think the cut might have been a couple Strokes better I think like the cut might have been two under if you had the same type of cut rules and you just had a better field obviously if if you had the you know 70 guys playing for 50

Spots in the cut might have been plus two because you just it’s harder to make it but but yeah I I I think I agree that the winning score wouldn’t have been that much better yeah I I I even I said three would be the absolute Max and I

Could see that 14 under being good enough to win against any body um it’s hard to tell because it depends on what Scotty Sheffer does it seems like right now to even matter about anybody else but um you know basically we’re saying could Scotty sheffler shot better than 14 under

Um no it was just I saw some chatter about it and and and that’s why uh you know mni’s interview was so good about you know come on let PJ tour let’s not be dumb about changing all this stuff and and you know basically the dead opposite of the Windham Clark interview

Yeah yeah it was that was uh refreshing to see and obviously it’s expecting him from him and I think it’s why he’s getting why he had been getting the sponsors invites too by the way is because I think he’s just you know a very respected person on the tour people

Want his thoughts people want him involved uh last thing in the final round how about that Xander Schley finish six under on the day and by the way he lost over a stroke putting so if he had putted well on top of the way he played T green there was a very real

Chance that he would have been you know potentially in a playoff or something that was that would have been one of the best rounds of the season if he had putted anywhere near as well as he played two to Green yeah I loved it uh

This is two weeks in a row I’m like either Min cashing or just missing Min cash in the in the the full tournament stuff but I finished second again in The Showdown on Sunday just behind behind Shaway and cam young I basically just said hey I’m going to build around the

Two guys with the most upside got kind of lucky with a couple other guys that that I had in there in the lineup that had kind of played better earlier in the week so yeah it was um when you get a guy with that much talent he’s just got

Such the the opportunity to make up so much ground on a golf course like that U but I think the golf course just shows you that if you play really good you can shoot a low score but there’s just not much forgiveness I wish we would get a

Little bit more more of that on the PJ tour yeah now for the Houston open we get another not so deep field but once again a field that has some big names at the top Scotty sheffler Windham Clark our boy sah thala Wills alator Tony fow

SEIU Kim Jason day Keith Mitchell so uh lots to look forward to again this week the course fit model is a very interesting one we made the the comparison to Augusta where there’s not a ton of signal on on off the te play little bit of a boost to driving

Distance so definitely a week where distance matters more than accuracy but the the big similarity is that around the green play matters a ton this week putting slightly down approach Play Slightly down here at the Houston open uh what names stand out to you immediately from that well so the the my

My first thing is going to be it just really depends on how the greens are um I know they’ve been pretty firm the last few years I’m really positive they’ve been really firm here it’s uh that I think that’s why that around the green pops so much I know they’ve had a little

Bit more rain this year than maybe they’ve had in the the last couple years so I’m going to pay attention to how firm the greens are um I think that’s you know with the firm greens it’s just going to make that around the green really pop if they’re a little bit

Softer I’m going to lean more into guys that hit it far and and guys that just kind of spin it a little bit more and uh you know my theala zotus Jason day like those are the type of guys that that I really think are going to play well this week

I like it I’m going to put you on the spot here for a second can you guess who the number one player is this week in this field in our estimate for strokes gained around the green I it’s got to be Jason day right there so there are a couple names

That jump out Jason day is a really good guest he’s about third best uh third best at least among the the relevant players like there are a couple guys down below like sunen Kim um who who probably is technically a little bit better than Jason day on a per round

Basis but that might just be because he gets more shots from around the green missing more greens things of that nature but the answer is Scotty sheffler it’s just like he’s just so incredibly good that he now has maybe the single best short game in the world and people

Don’t even noticed because his ball striking is that much better than everybody else’s so just yet another piece of evidence that man Scotty’s just on on another on another level second best is McKenzie Hughes than Jason day so M Hughes could be somebody that that we talk a bunch about this week coming

Off one of his better finishes of the season and and of the last few years yeah I’m I’ve already kind of built my draftking stuff for the week and I’ve literally I think probably more so than ever not that i’ ever shy away from it but have built on

Length um just because if the greens are firm just the ability ility to hit shorter clubs and spin it more um it’s a very aggressive way to build I think like I think that that like I’m looking for guys to maybe really pop uh Rico

Ho’s one of them like I think that he could really really play good this week he hits it really far um there’s guys like that that I’ve just kind of build around I mean I love theala this week this should be a great place for him to

Play really well um he’s been playing well um I don’t know how chalky he’ll be I I I’m guessing you’re going to get a lot more people pay up for Sheffer and Clark and kind of pass on that middle the middle guys there I really like

Zotor this week too he’s been in good form and he’s been playing well and uh seems to have figured out the putter so I I I kind of like that top of the board you know after you kind of throw out those top two guys the problem is Scotty

Sheffer’s so good it’s hard not to build around him yeah I’m very curious to see what the gpp scores are going to say the $133,000 price tag is extremely interesting because it has the potential to to bring down his ownership where just so many people it’s a it’s over a

$2,000 gap between Sheffer and the second most expensive Windam Clark so if people decide hey I’m okay with with Clark as my most expensive or I’m okay with you know SE Kim is my most expensive and just going really balanced man if sheffer’s only going to

Be 20% on something like that he’s going to have one of the highest gpp scores we’ve ever seen here at ftn and on the other hand if he is still 40% own and the gpp score isn’t screaming to play Scotty and it is screaming to play you

Know a handful of guys in the $9,000 range could just really really sway our strategy this week so very excited to see what ownership ends up saying we don’t have it yet uh here early on this Tuesday Morning need a better picture of things but before we move into specific

Players and and potential bets I want to ask you this is an event that’s been played late in the fall the last three seasons what do you think could change from a course fit perspective with the move here to the spring well yeah and I

Think that I think it comes down to the green firmness right is is are the greens going to be firm is have they had enough growth down there to get the rough up at all or is it still going to be kind of um and I think it’s one of

Very few courses that’s that’s played on a on a mun right there’s not very many PJ tour events that are on a a pure uh public golf course like this uh I could be wrong about that but there’s there’s the list can’t be very long of of an actual city-owned Golf Course of

Where they play a PJ Tour event so I if if you get the changes where the rough is more up the greens are firmer what changes do you see happening to the qu fit model is that like is that something where driving accuracy is going to become a little bit

More important maybe distance becomes a little more important what happens to that around the green signal approach signal what do you think would change yeah I just think I think it’s going to come down to to distance right I I I think it does that a lot lot so I think

If you could com obviously I mean without even being said combine a guy that that hits it far to give you all the upside but then also you know has the ability to to Chip and Putt it really well because I don’t think there’s a lot of Hazards here I don’t I

Think water’s only in play in like three or four holes so you’re not going to get a lot of penalty shots it’s more in trees and still have a chance to get it up around the green and make Po I think that’s the biggest deal about that the

Around the green really popping is because it just helps with the bogey avoidance because you’re just not hitting it out of play as much so to speak I can see that um I I think personally I’m not going to speculate at ton on what the the changes might do

Unless we get like specific word about the greens definitely are this much firmer the rough definitely is this much more difficult unless we have news about that stuff that we can actually depend on I think it any kind of speculation is is more likely to bring you in the wrong

Direction than the right direction and think the course fit model one thing we’ve seen from other golf courses that do have big changes uh in in conditions from one year to the next is they tend to have the at least directionally the same shape of a course fit model just

You know it a lot of it is inherent to the design and and things of that nature and less about the conditions themselves so I’m just going to trust the course fit model unless we have specific reason to to know and anticipate some specific change I’m just going to stick with it

Yeah what what year is this at this golf course because I know they played they played Redstone before this place and then that’s when this is the uh fourth year at this course okay gotcha yeah 21 22 uh all being in the fall so you know the 2021 and 22 were

The 21 22 and 20 23 golf Seasons yeah so because before that I think Redstone is when they were shaving down all the edges and trying to get it more of a master’s prep golf course I know spe played good at At Redstone a couple of

Times um yeah I guess it’s here and then San Antonio so it’s just a little different in the schedule you back in the day there’s no way I would not know this I would have Monday qualified yesterday and probably been at a preq headed that way today or tomorrow so it’s definitely different

Um yeah I I think that this week kind of gets just kind of gets jammed in the middle of all these big golf tournaments right and they’re they’re just not not as much attention and what’s really funny is how great Sheffer is he doesn’t draw the

Crowd that I mean even then like maybe like a Jordan spe or or or some guys that just move the needle a little bit more do you think that that we’re going to continue to see this decline in TV ratings like we have over the last few

Weeks yeah I kind of think we will um at least until the Masters but I I also think that it’s you know it’s it’s possible that it’s just been the time of year and it’s coming up on March Madness I I don’t know how much of it has to do with just

Like a a random blip in the ratings versus a uh a start of a larger Trend but we’ll see over the next few weeks for sure I mean even the I think that I think the players was down for the first time in several years I mean a lot of

The golf tournaments that usually draw a huge crowd and or I mean they’re still drawing crowd I I don’t I don’t think they’re losing any OnCourse um you know people people coming to actually watch but uh I think that the TV ratings and you know I I do

Kind of agree last week obviously batting battling March Madness I think they’ll battle it a little bit again this week um yeah it’s just an interesting Trend you know to see if you take anything I mean you take it with a grain of salt and see what happens for the Masters but

You know they have to they have to be worried of what if we get to Augusta and one of two things since the live guys are playing it’s either going to be huge and everybody’s GNA watch or it’s G to be way down yeah I I think the the big concern

For me is like I know my dad is somebody who used to watch a ton of golf tournaments he barely watches now and his reason is that he’s just not as interested in the tour because 90% of what he hears about the tour is the drama with the live uh with the live

Golf tour and and all that stuff and he just just kind of turned off by the whole thing so he doesn’t tune in on on Saturdays or Sundays anymore the way he used to I think that’s the type of fan that they’re losing more than anybody

Else and that’s the type of fan that it’s going to be the hardest for them to reach back out to because like that’s the type of fan that they can’t just win back by finally making the broadcast better because they’re not going to see that the broadcast has improved with

That things of that nature so I I don’t know how they how they go but I I do think one concern for us as the loyal fan that is watching every single week is if they realize that improving the broadcast doesn’t bring those people back do they actually have a reason to

Improve the broadcast or are we just stuck with this subar product well and then let’s we can go a step further with this right what if um what if they what if you weren’t allowed to play DraftKings they didn’t have draft things and they didn’t they

You couldn’t bet on it how many pure golf followers would we really have that are actually watching day in and day out like we have now I’m not saying it’s everything but there’s definitely something to it 100% because even if you do have like a favorite golfer that you always want

To watch you’re only going to be able to watch them once on Thursday or Friday because the way they cover golf then you maybe can watch him for some of the Saturday round and then you have to hope that he’s in contention on Sunday or

You’re not going to be able to watch him then so yeah there there really isn’t a whole lot left you have to just enjoy the the golf itself you have to enjoy seeing the golf course and to your point that that group I think is smaller

Than the tour realizes it maybe made up most of the of the of the fans back in the day but I think there’s also a sense of like back in the day there was no alternative there was no other way of life other way of watching and assuming

The sport so anybody who enjoyed any aspect of it that’s just what they did now we we are so used to being able to watch any sport the way we want it’s it’s just a different world now and not and then let’s go on a step further and you’re you’re say you’re

Favorite golfer right that say you have a a Jack Nicholas right or even a you know early Tiger Woods that you wanted to watch all the time they played 30 weeks a year you know now we’re getting the best players in the world playing 15

To 18 weeks a year and so you’re losing you know not only is it potluck of what day you get to watch them and if they’re in contention but also they’re not playing very much so it’s just it’s just a different Dynamic and and I mean obviously it’s different for us because

We’re involved in the betting and the DFS side of it and we’re gonna and and we I think the other thing is we enjoy watching good golf shots and enjoy watching golf as a whole we take it in more as a as a product from everybody than one indiv individual but yeah sorry

I didn’t mean to get off off off topic and on a rant here but I just think that I think the tour’s in trouble well it’s a perfect segue because now we can talk about all right since we are betters who do we like in the outright betting Market uh there is

One guy who comes to mind for me it is McKenzie Hughes I haven’t made this bet yet but he’s available at 65 to we have him at 1.6% to win so definite value there um I probably will make this bet I think right now the thing I’m struggling

With on him is uh let me go back to him real quick so his best available 65 like I said on fandel his best available for an eway is down at 50 to1 for either bet 365 or bet Rivers so I think the move is just a pure outright on FanDuel even

Though he’s the type of player that I would prefer to have Anway on but I don’t think that those uh that that Gap is worth it going all the way down to 50 so maybe what I’ll do is just hold off and hope that the the numbers on the

Books with each Ways available kind of creeps towards that 65 to one number yeah man McKenzie Hughes is one of those guys for me is I just I I can’t figure him out and I know we talk about this time if we have guys that we just don’t

Figure out and this is where I think you perform a lot better than I do in situations like this because you’re going to be so data driven whereas I just have the you know I see him play and then see how he finishes and then you know the times that I have played

Him how bad he plays and it’s just he’s a hard guy for me to figure out he’s somebody we nailed uh last year at the AT&T Byron Nelson he was a part of our huge week that week and like the similari pretty simple it’s that around

The green mattered a ton that week it matters a ton again this week he he really does have one of the best short games in the world outside of that there’s almost like no Rhyme or Reason to to when he plays well when he doesn’t

He will he had a fantastic week off the tea at the Players he gained over stroke and then he loses half a stroke the next week he barely gained the week prior at Bay Hill his putting he had he had actually lost Strokes in five consecutive events and then gains 2.4 on

The Greens at the V bar like there’s like I said there’s extremely little Rhyme or Reason to his game outside of the fact that around the green he is fantastic and because of the fact that there’s no Rhyme or Reason in the rest of his game it means that he’s just very

Volatile from one event to the next which again we actually like when we’re in the outright Market makes him a little bit harder of a sell on the DraftKings side of things but in the outright Market that volatility is great because it gives him a better ceiling

Yeah for sure um and there’s a guy slightly lower price than that that that I thought you might be back on here and that’s Jake NAB I just think this golf course is going to be good for me hits it far it’s kind of more of like what

I’m leaning on this this week and um I think he kind of gets I think that number is just too high I guess I think he’s mid-50s um I just’s 60 to one yeah okay so 60 to one like I I just think that’s way that’s way too high of a price I

Think that he has he’s shown that he has the upside to win and and um for a field like this like where you feel like you’re just trying to beat you know a couple of guys I think that he’s shown he has the ability to do it definitely uh the thing that that

Worries me about nap is I don’t really know what he is doing off the te now if we if we look at his performances these are his uh performances in just distance off the te relative to the field back to the American Express he gained 11 yards

Then 15 yards at Farmers Insurance then 12 at the Phoenix Open 21 at the Mexico open 24 at the cognizant at PJ National then just two and a half and then he lost three and a half yards to the field last week the reason for this is that he’s

Pulling driver less and less he’s really gone like almost all in on this mini driver even when he hits the mini driver he’s not going all out he’s hitting that like little punch cut just trying to guide it and it’s not coming with an increase in accuracy he lost over two

And a half Strokes per round off the T at Bay Hill and then lost half a stroke uh at the Players obviously that two and a half lost number at Bay Hill little bit of an outlier because it came with that what was it a a 12 or 13 that he

Made whatever it was on six hole where he put three in the drink but regardless like he’s struggling with his accuracy off the te right now and the thing that scares me about that is he’s doing so while eliminating his distance Advantage I would much prefer to see him struggle

While maintaining an aggressive level off the te and just pump that driver know the fact that look you might have some bad weeks but when you’re on with the driver you’re going to contend and you’re going to have those huge weeks I don’t like this newer strategy that

We’re seeing from him maybe maybe he won’t like it either maybe he’ll look back at the last two weeks and say look if I’m not becoming more accurate by going to this mini driver more often then I need to just hit hit the hit the big one more often and that’d be great

Uh but I’m curious what your thoughts are here because this is one where like you probably need a more player driven mindset driven approach than than a data driven approach well I’m yeah I’m just going to go with it’s a par 70 7500 yard golf course and I I think that I’m GNA

Take the last couple of weeks of hitting hitting the other the mini driver and stuff as a golf course driven thing and so I think we’re going to go back to what we saw where he just balms driver every time be a lot of because of the

Golf course I don’t know if it’s going to be a mindset like I agree that I hope he stays with this strategy even on the shorter golf courses but I think this week with the length of the golf course and the way the golf course plays you will see a lot of

Drivers if if he does that I will really like his chances so this might even be something where I don’t make a bet prior to the start of the event but instead I watch his first three holes if he’s bombing driver and hitting it well okay

Whatever his number is at now I like it it’s not going to move enough in the first three holes because the books aren’t going to be like looking to see hey is he hitting driver or the mini driver to start the round uh so that that’s potentially the angle that I’m

Going to take on him because I think it makes an enormous difference we like I said uh distance slightly more predictive than usual here this week accuracy slightly less predictive than usual so this is the type of place where if he comes out bombing driver that distance advantage that he gains which

There might only be a few players in this field like I would say Windam Clark Keith Mitchell luk list they might be the only guys as long as he is so this is a huge Advantage if he chooses to take advantage of it yeah fenale probably in that category too I guess

He’s got to be pretty close up there um do you so I I’m glad you brought up Keith Mitchell what obvious meltdown on Sunday do you go back it should be a great Golf Course for him yeah he’s he’s another guy I’m on the fence on uh I wish that his number

Was slightly better like if I I wonder what his number would have been if he hadn’t taken the Saturday lead uh where he’s he’s only 40 to1 the best available is 40 to1 it’s available pretty much any book that you want so maybe one of those

40s becomes 45 or 50 which would make things a lot easier we have him at 2.2% to win so pretty fairly priced as of now but yeah like I said uh if he hadn’t taken the lead would he be 50 to1 60 to1 right now and we’d be salivating over this

Number yeah I I would guess I mean obviously they’re going to adjust to anybody they see that’s in decent form no matter the Meltdown I think um that being said I don’t know uh the bottom line is we’re trying to to beat a 3 to1 Scotty Sheffer door I mean that’s literally all

We’re trying to do it’s an amazing number 3 to one is unheard of I I think I sent you a text as soon as it came out yeah I mean we have Scotty at 26.2% to win so it it’s when you factor in How likely Scotty is to win and then

You factor in the whole that these Sports books take there’s not a whole lot of room left to find Value so uh I I wouldn’t be shocked if this is a week where I don’t even have a outright might be a week where we’re solely looking uh for some live

Opportunities um I want to check real quick where theala is because so theala is at 20 we have him at 6.4% to win so I think that like there are a lot of guys like this where we do see slight value but we don’t see as much value as I

Typically like to see when placing my outrights I’m very uh particular about my outrights because we get so many opportunities with value with our strategy of just kind of of going more towards the long shots on a week in week out basis I don’t know man this might

Not be a week where I have an outright yeah I think that I like the idea of a live betting if we I I think I’ve got a a group right there that in that same group you’re talking about that I mentioned before zalatoris fenal um theala day that if they start off

Looking like they’re hitting it well and don’t and aren’t scoring well or whatever and I can see an increase in value on might jump in there um the only guy that I that that I stood out that I just thought their number was way too high was nap and that’s because of I

Think that he goes back to hitting the driver this week so um I I agree I just never thought in my lifetime we would see a three to one favorite on the it’s crazy and and the craziest thing about it is I don’t even think it’s like that bad of a

Number pretty close to that what what was I mean I don’t I doubt you know this but I wonder what tigers like I wonder what his best like his the most favorite he ever was he was like a minus I know he was a minus 130 in one event I think

He may have even gotten to like minus 180 something like that U so we’re we’re not anywhere close to Tiger range here on Scotty’s number but it’s I I I would guess that this is as low of a number as we’ve seen since any of tigers yeah

Again I don’t know that for sure but I you know we how we know how volatile golf is to think that a guy’s volatility is so low and such the top of the number it’s just amazing y um there’s one other guy that I’m considering for an outright

Robert McIntyre somebody that we’ve gone to a lot this season especially in DFS we’ve got him at 1% to win he’s available at 110 to one on bet 365 with an eway I do think there’s value there particularly because of the eway so that would get us um

Let me see real quick that would get us effectively a 27 and a half to one on his top five the best available there is 18 to one on FanDuel and draftking so definite value on that each way I think I’ll place that one and that’s probably

Going to be the only only um outright that I have coming into the event and then like we said I will look to fire live on either Hughes or jnap especially if knp comes out aggressive with driver that sort of thing yeah um I think I’m a I’m a big fan of

Parker Cy this week too um I think he fits here uh I think he’s I I I don’t have access to DraftKings and FanDuel I can look it up but I bet he’s got to be 200 200 plus I would guess he’s he’s 200 to one on

FanDuel and Caesar’s 150 to1 on bet 365 and bet Rivers where you can add an each way to it and I just think his skill set I think he’s kind of figuring it out um I saw his numbers the other day at when he practiced at meido around me and

I go out there and play and it’s just mindblowing how good how good he drives it so if he drives it that good this week and like I said I’ve been really heavy on the driver so that’s why I um you know that’s that’s kind of why I

Lean into him and obviously that’s just knowing him and being around here and I don’t think that’s very there’s not no stats but I mean he’s 250 to one it’s not like it’s a you know a huge RIS and I’m not going to you know I’m not

Going to go bet a thousand dollars on it or anything like that I just think that he’s got a chance to compete and when he starts to figure it out I just kind of want to be ahead of the curve on him and he’s only like 5700 on DraftKings which

You know that helps you fit a Scotty Sheffer in there if he’s super well owned his iron play very much stands out for his price I definitely agree with you there um are there any any other guys from a DraftKings perspective that stand out to you that you expect to be either

Extremely under owned near the top or just somebody who’s going to be o overlooked in as a good value uh Davis Thompson 7300 I really like him this week once again we’re back onto the driver deal U he he drives he drove it really good here last year I remember

Them talking about it if we get that that back um I mean it’s a par 70 7500 yard Golf Course the reason I’m so big on is I think people are going to hit driver a lot like I really do think everybody will hit driver a lot and so

That that’s why some of these guys that are just known for driving it really good I mean nap’s 8,000 um you know that that’s just the kind of the the guys that I’m looking at this week Davis Thompson like I said when I scrolled through I just thought

That was too cheap for his upside I’ve kind of talked about him a lot and anybody that’s been around for the last you know last year and this year knows that I’m always looking for a guy that I can visually see has super high upside maybe just hasn’t put it together yet

Fun fact about Thompson and this definitely lends itself to your point about his upside he’s one of just three players in this field that we have projected to gain Strokes in all five categories distance off the te accuracy off the te approach play around the green play and putting Windam Clark and

S the gala are the only two obviously Scotty we have projected to lose Strokes putting otherwise he’d be in that group as well but uh so yeah Thompson definitely stands out he stands out from unexpected Strokes gain perspective as well the only question I have is his

Ownership uh does the does the whole Field view Thompson the way we do in which case I’d probably fade but yeah other other than that I definitely like that call quite a bit um somebody else who stands out to me is SEIU Kim um SEIU his driving accuracy is just off the

Charts right now we have him gaining over three quarters of a stroke per round with his driving accuracy alone really solid approach play of course he’s always outstanding around the green the poor putter maybe matters a little bit less than usual this week but he also had a really good putting week at

The the player so maybe he can continue that momentum the other interesting thing is his event to event standard deviation has steadily increased throughout a lot of the season so up to 2.4% to win previously for this season he’s been somebody that we we haven’t given any interest in the outright side

Of things because his event man standard deviation really lowered last year and and the reason for that was his putting he was just so consistently poor on the greens now he’s showing some spikes which gives him a little bit more volatility which again opens up a little

Bit more of a seing so I he’s not getting to a point where I’m seeing value on him in the outright Market but it’s it’s good to see that his win probability is starting to get more in line again with his expected C gain and

We do have him fourth in this field in expected C gain so definitely somebody I might be interested in on the draftking side of things if Scotty is taking all of the ownership up top but we’ll have to see what that looks like and what the gpp scores look like once we get

Ownership so with that I think it’s time to jump into the oneandone conversation where are you thinking this week see if we can get ourselves into the top 100 um I I think it’s going to we’re going to probably end up a little bit ownership based here um more so than normal

Because I think it’s pretty clear up top that like the one of like four guys right for me anyway would be thala zuris day and SEIU and I just think it’s kind of going to come down if we can get one of those four super low owned I I Leen theala

Would be first and zotor to I think right as of right now who I would pick but I would expect a lot of people to be on theala we don’t have theala we used him at the Sony Open um we do have day we do have zalatoris we do have

Sewo uh we don’t have wendam we don’t have Scotty so our options are a little bit limited yeah so I think it would be zotus and then SEIU for me I think if if if we were going to go and and maybe not having Gala could be a good thing here

Because I think he’s got to be chocked this week I don’t think that I would want zalot Tores just because of the course fit model i’ I’d like to see a heavier weight on both aspects of ball striking I’d like you know particularly driving accuracy and approach play I’d

Like to see more of a weight on when we go to zot Taurus I’d also like to see a a d emphasis on around the green play for zalot Taurus he’s got the worst uh short game in the top 10 yeah he’s got the worst short game in in the top 10 of

Of DraftKings price this week so I I think I might be leaning towards SE wo unless he’s super popular uh but yeah it’s you mentioned Jason day right yeah yeah I think day is a solid play as well we do have day available so I I

Think we’ve got options but um I also kind of like your thought of Jake knap uh in the outr market where look if people are definitely going to be down on him like I think he’ll be extremely low owned this week if we think that the

Course is going to let him go back to that driver heavy just bombit type of game plan man I don’t think he’s gonna have anywhere near the amount of ownership that he should given his chance to go win this thing yeah I mean obviously you know I’m a big fan of him

This week the the reason the the thing about zot Tores is is I just think he has so much win Equity that the other stuff doesn’t matter if the if he plays the way he’s been playing on these hard golf courses um I think these greens are

Fairly large too if I’m not mistaken like some of the biggest on tour um so I think that uh I just don’t his short game isn’t very good but he just doesn’t miss very many greens and I don’t think he’s gonna miss very many here either

So my uh my only pause there is I think a lot of the time when we see around the green signal it’s it’s automatic that we think okay you have to get up and down to save pars a lot of the time the around the green signal comes from your

Ability to turn you know par fives into easy birdies because you don’t have to hit the green on that second shot you don’t have to stick a wedge to two feet you can just put it anywhere in the vicinity of the green with your second

Shot and know you’re going to get up and down for that four yeah I mean there’s definitely there’s definitely something to be said about that I just like I said it’s more about win equity and I definitely could if you know if we think

He’s going to be even 8% or 5% owned you know I I have no problem going away from him but if if we get a if we can get somebody body likes zuris when nobody’s on him um that that’s kind of what I’m looking for you

Know we kind of talk about this a lot but we want I mean we’re kind of going to win this thing right like we finished 200th I don’t think we’re really like we’re going to call it oh we did okay this year we had a solid year but you

Know we want we want to we want to you know get in the top five and and have a chance come the end of the year so I mean I definitely can I can 100% get get behind sea w just because he’s been playing so dang good and coming off the

Momentum of the last round I just I have a I have a hard time believing that’s not going to drive his ownership up yeah I think ownership is definitely a big concern on SEO and again we’ll have a better idea of oneandone ownership once we get DraftKings ownership like I I

Think we one thing we’ve learned we went into the season kind of thinking kind of questioning how much we learn about oneandone ownership from draftings own ship I think in time we’ve learned it’s they pretty much go hand inand not in the sense that like you know the the

Most popular DFS play even if he’s $7,600 will also be the most popular one in dunp pick but when you factor in price and ownership on DraftKings you learn a lot about the one andone ownership particularly when guys are priced similarly on DraftKings like zalot torus and seu Kim this week if

Zalot torus is 20% on a DraftKings and SE is 15% then you’re going to get more one andone ownership on on zotus if zotus is 10% and sew is 25% then zotor is going to be the one lower owned and one and done so uh once we get that

Information I think we’ll be able to make a much better much more convicted decision here on one and done but sounds we got a lot of names already in the pot I will throw one more in there McKenzie Hughes talked about a bunch another guy that we could be confident will be like

0. five% own something like that in the one andone somebody who’s far more likely to miss the cut than anybody else we’ve talked about but I don’t think he’s far less likely to win in fact we’ve got him at 1.6% to win we only have zalot torus at one and a half

Percent I think you can make a case that we might be slightly high or slightly low on either of those two guys in that regardless of the course alot Taurus is always going to be more likely to win but personally I don’t think that I

Think that we are right and we by the way are much higher on zalot Taurus for a top five or a top 10 which I think that’s where you really see the fact that zotor is a better player than Hughes but it’s interesting uh that we we then have Hughes ever so slightly

Overtaking him and win probability I think it’s one of the advantage of the simulations uh that we have and and especially the utilization of the different standard deviation estimates that we have for players we’ll have plenty more discussion of one and done probably will’ll do a lot of that in

Discord anytime anybody wants our thoughts on what and done we are always happy to answer in Discord and we do each week and then from a DraftKings perspective you will get all of our favorite plays in the Discord on the optimizer in my article that comes out

Tomorrow and then finally you can catch me as well tomorrow on tambo’s show talking a bunch of DFS stuff as well so check that out and thank you all very much for tuning in we will catch you next time