2024 Valspar Championship Best Bets, Odds | Outright Bets, Placement Markets | Underdog Picks Rd1

Pat Mayo, Joe Idone & Brad Thomas give their 2024 Valspar Championship Best Bets with their Gold, Silver and Bronze Selections.

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INDEX

00:00 Intro
1:39 Players On-Site Notes
10:23 Gold
19:14 Valspar Underdog Entry
27:41 Recap
28:45 Silver
47:22 Bronze
54:09 Outright Picks
1:04:09 Picks Recap

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And I’m going to continue with how I should have done with Scotty at the Players I bet Sam Burns last week what a loser of mayo experience experience Experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy code Mayo at Underdog fantasy right now to get yourself a deposit match of up to $100 and if you’re for the pat Mayo experience listeners League it is now on Underdog it’ll be

Released on the main draft page under PGA for the valpar championship it will be a draft once the tea times are released that is the trigger when the tournament gets created it is rake free let’s fill this one up as quickly as possible it’s pretty small to start

Because they want to gauge the interest that the fans have in a rake free draft league for Thursday only I for one am excited I am going to be in those streets doing the draft so hopefully you’re going to come join me I believe it’s 10 Max so you can really like pound

Out some valpar Championship drafts all right and use fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself 20% off best bet show for the Valspar Championship Brad Thomas Joe I Adon the panel this week uh I had a very bad Players Championship but both you guys were on location at various

Points so that sounds like a big win regardless how The Bets did how was it Joe your first time covering an event for Roto Baller in the preferred Lions podcast yeah it was amazing Pat Uh an experience like I’ve probably never had before that tournament is awesome there

Is not a blade of grass on place on the property it was so cool because I’ve been to the other Florida tournaments including the Val bar before and the just the way that they sort of build the stadium aspect and the mounding around the greens there isn’t like a bad place

To stand um on the entire property we finally got that great finish we’ve been eager for all year even though it was painful for me with a giant Brian Harmon ticket and a Windam Clark live ad but um you got you got to tip your hat to

Scotty sheffler who shoots a Sunday 64 uh dealing with a stinger in the neck or something who knows what it was but it was an awesome tournament great experience uh really cool to be there NBC Sports Brad Thomas you too you said you were there on

Tuesday yeah I was out there on Tuesday I was supposed to go uh on Saturday and of course the wife changes plans but Tuesday was work and like Joe said that course is immaculate tiptop shape I don’t know if Joe saw this but what I love about going to TPC during the week

Is how many guys they have mowing the lawn it’s like an army of 300 dudes mowing the lawn one line at a time it’s always beautiful and yeah of course 17’s my favorite spot to post up even on a Tuesday the uh the little Hill they have

Is packed with people have you been to inisbrook the copperhead course at Valar is it just Joe who’s been there Brad I’ve been there and I’ve played in a tournament at the course oh humbling very humbling I was just hacking it up all over the place yeah what are your

Impressions of it Joe because I I I don’t want this to turn into an easy course like if we can get another minus 10 winner I’m gonna be very happy yeah my impressions of it are much like Brad that it’s a very difficult course that said Pat it seems like the

Tour has brought in a new uh system of sort of making these tournaments easier like you had just previously mentioned they uh neutered the bear trap at my favorite course at the Honda Classic or the cognizant classic a few weeks ago they added and and made the PLAYERS

Championship I felt like played a little bit easier like they kept that little rough bumper around the green on 17 which was a little bit controversial in the in the media room there to allow those balls to stop and not traditionally would just run into the water so it’ll be interesting see if

There’s any significant changes in the setup this week I hope not I love this tournament I think it’s great prep for major championship season I think it’s great viewing on television and typically gives us a pretty solid leaderboard and some drama down the stretch Brad let me ask you this because

I wrote about this in my newsletter column this week you can go hit it right now it’s completely free substack Mayo Media or just hit the description it’s down there uh and you can take a read of it they’ll never have a PGA Championship

Or a US Open in Florida it would just be too [ __ ] hot the entire time but how good would this course be as a US Open oh my God this course would be perfect especially since like we know they’ve made the rough a lot more thick or

Thicker but if they continue to thicken out the rough it’s treein so it’s already difficult they’re cutting the greens in so there’s not that runoff area that’s going to be on these greens um around the collar this would be absolutely beautiful and I’d probably be the first person in attendance but uh

Like Joe said like I hope they don’t make this course easy um we’ve got a ton of rain here in Florida in the Orlando Tampa area and if they just let that rough go it could get really difficult for missing Fairways ah but they’re not

Going to do that you know it’s not going to happen they’ll cut it down and make it a little bit easier that’s no fun so any takeaways Joe that you had from just seeing the players out there that obviously you could watch any player that you wanted

It is impossible to watch them all at the same time just I listen obviously Windam Clark played really well so did Scotty Sheffer but were there guys that you saw around the course like they’re actually playing a lot better than like the scorecard might tell us here yeah and the other thing that’s

Interesting being there Pat on site and you you’ve kind of noticed from doing it before is like getting a glimpse of how guys warm up on the Range um the guys who stay after their round and sort of practice late and or you can tell the guys who are frustrated and working on

Things with their coaches also the interaction between like player caddy walking right there are some guys who show visible frustration and are like they’re there’s something that they don’t have figured out in their golf swing and they’re actively working on it with their caddy as they move about

Through the course so you pick up little things and ins and outs sort of like that um obviously I followed a lot of the the bigger groups through most of it and kind of sort of weave my way through the crowds wam Clark was incredible Brian Harmon I was with was absolutely

Striping it the entire day um but yeah you you get a different sense sort of being on sight of not just seeing the player stand over the ball and how they’re sort of moving and what their energy is like in between shots and pre poost round is kind of unique so was

There anyone who actually stood out to you that maybe we’re not thinking about you know I would say not the one guy that I really like this week that I think a lot of people will is is Jimmy Stanger looked awesome like I wanted to

See him he was super um excited to be there which I like to see he had a great energy about him whether he had good shots bad shots he’s fist pumping all the fans in and out he was working hard pre and post round Xander the amount of

Work that he was putting in with Chris KO on the course really sort of stuck out to me and he’s made some significant changes to not only his swing but I think his attitude and just listening to Xander and post round pressers where um I had felt that this weight of not

Winning and being you know breaking through for victory had really been weighing on him I don’t really get that sense anymore and he seems to be in a really good spot mentally and I think part of that is working with KO and sort of how he reinforces what a good player

He is but little things like that Justin Thomas was there a ton working with his dad and Bones he was one of the first players out before uh the second wave of afternoon tea times obviously things did not go his way at the Players Championship but another player who’s

Actively working hard um and is one of the top guys on the board this week Brad I feel like this is in your wheelhouse I’m going to ask you they changed the green types at the play championships officially to POA overseed from Bermuda they’ve done the same thing this week at

Inisbrook can you like tell us the difference between that and why that might be important or whether it is important or not yeah I think that’s it’s very important right so uh Po’s a much more difficult green to putt on bermuda’s nice firm smooth true role I’m a Florida

Golfer and I’ll tell you this first and foremost when you play on Bermuda greens and you putt on Bermuda greens you just get used to them because all I feel like every putt you’re going to have is just going to roll true that’s not going to

Happen on PO greens and a lot of these guys like the Sam Burns of the world which kind of scares me at his price of 12 to1 by the way but the Sam Burns of the world who are just you know talked about of being these great Bermuda

Putters you’re gonna you’re gonna kind of forget you’re going to see he’s might get frustrated on these greens a little bit because they’re not going to roll as true it’s not going to be in my opinion as pretty as beautiful but um probably won’t get as baked out either um I

Haven’t checked the latest forecast but I mean you guys know Florida and you know these Bermuda greens can get baked out real fast and it plays really difficult so uh I I wish they you know they stuck with the Bermuda here but uh just kind of change the way you build

Your modeling around because I know that a lot of people are just going to go heavy Bermuda and they did it last week they do it the week before anytime you’re on the floor to swing but that’s something to pay attention to yeah did that ever come up when you were walking

Around last week Joe or was it just like yeah whatever it’s basically the same no it didn’t really come up I mean I didn’t hear any players talk about it the the fans I think you know it’s funny being there and we’re in such a we’re in

Such a like we’re in this circle of golf Twitter where we’re so deep in the weeds with analytics and stuff like that and it’s interesting to just be amongst very casual fans in an element like that you could probably speak to this too Brad but um just hearing them talk like one

Of the things I really picked up on was what like still the level of superstar that Jordan spe is right you don’t we don’t really get the sense because he’s not playing great and hasn’t won in a while but when you’re following that group it’s everything you hear around me

Is spe’s group is up next is it where’s spe at is this is spe coming up in this following group when I’m standing up by the green and he’s playing with Rory maoy and Victor havin like two top four players in the world yet the majority 80

To 90% of the people there are there to see Jordan Speed it is speed’s group so little things like that that you sort of pick up on that sometimes we get lost in in in the circles that we run in on golf Twitter and forget that the Casual fan

Is very much oblivious to some of the ins and outs weekly in the golf world and things like grass types and these other elements that play a factor in these tournaments when you’re trying to sort of handicap them or look at them from a DFS perspective all right let’s

Move in to the gold picks want to remind everyone Thursday night is the night on the pat Mayo experience live on Mayo media Network the custies live debate cust will be on in studio Live Jeff will be on the line live and if you do have a question for either of

Them hit the description right now and there is a flip page that we have where you can record a 20 second video the best ones will be shown to them for the first time ever brand new to them live on air as we prep for the town hall

Debate so please be there share it around and get people jazzed for the custy’s debate because the custy voting closes uh not immediately after but just you have that then you have the weekend to decide for the most important election I think in 2024 who is the most

Insane person cust or is it Jeff or is it me or Paul we’re on the ballot too but we’re not getting a lot of traction here we’re like the RFK although we’re actually on the ballot everywhere but either way gold picks for the valpar championship I am going to take a guy

That I made fun of Jeff about betting because Jeff bets him outright every single week and dude’s never won but when you look at his play at more difficult courses cam young actually kind of elevates his game a little bit even as around the green work tends to

Be a little bit better once it gets a bit more difficult to chip but his driving was not on point clearly at the Players Championship and it really wasn’t at Bay Hill either but the approach game just continues to be absolute fire but the biggest thing that’s been holding him back the past

Two weeks he’s dropped like 10 combined total Strokes on the green yet he continues to make the weekend he continues to generate birdies over and over so hopefully he can just even out that putter a little bit I like can young here Brad top 20 at plus 150

Something just very easy for him to do he can have a bad week and still come 14th yeah no uh cam Young’s funny because I think that I’m actively trying to find the spot where Cam young young breaks through like every time I look at his stat profile I’m trying to make this

Big grandiose case for him but a top 20 ticket is something that I think is more likely to happen this week than it was last week why because his driver was struggling but when you come to uh inisbrook you play this Copperhead course you’re going to have so many

Forced layups here where if you’re spraying a driver it’s not going exactly where you want that’s okay because you’re probably going hit in Three Wood you’re going to be hitting iron off the te a lot more times than not and if you’re absolutely striping your irons

This is when you’re going to get hot now I don’t know if he’s going to win but I’m kind of actually shocked about that price of plus 150 uh weaker field um I think his price last week was uh kind of rivaled that which is kind of surprising

Yeah it just everyone people turn on cam young Joe so quickly it’s like oh my God he’s definitely going to win let’s price him at 16 to1 to win the tournament and then he has two bad weeks it’s like this guy [ __ ] sucks yep absolutely nobody moves up and

Down the odd spard spiral quite like cam young but I I like your take there um you’re right if this course I think the harder this course plays Pat the more it falls into Cam Young’s sort of lap um four top eight finishes in major championships so he’s been a player that

Enjoys difficult conditions played pretty well thus far in the Florida swing has played good at the cognizant multiple years he’s played good at the API multiple years you’re right it comes down to ultimately the putter with him but the last month or so his approach play has has sort of really been locked

In and you you talked about it briefly there Brad too like you’re looking at a place for a player to break through it’s where we saw Gary Woodland get his first win Sam Burns um Taylor Moore last year Adam hadwin we’ve seen a lot of players break through Paul Casey had a huge

Drought before he finally won here so it’s a spot where we’ve seen these guys take advantage of this dip course and their current form and be able to Parlay that into an initial uh Victory and get off to schneid so uh good luck with Cam young this week I think it’s a good

Number yeah I’m not betting him to win just top 20 plus 150 and that includes the ties if you really want to get risky you could probably boost that number up a little bit but then you might have to chop it I don’t want to be doing that Brad your gold

Pick my gold pick I went with Doug G him top 20 uh at plus 230 I’m fully capable fully expecting this to get dead heated out because I wanted the bigger number um when we look at Doug gim like I feel like it’s been kind of quiet that he’s

Put together some four really good tournaments four straight uh top 20 finishes uh the players Cog at Mexico open uh the Phoenix Open and his numbers not really changing uh maybe he was kind of a popular pick last week even his outright number but he kind of got a

Little bit more respect after the open he opened around 80 to1 to win the whole tournament I I think I bet it at 70 and the number dropped to 50 um but his top 20 finish for me what I like about it is he lost Strokes um putting at Mex open

Granted was only minus 0.1 but he’s been a gainer in four four of the five events that he played in and much like cam young his approach play has been absolutely Dynamite um when you when you look at Players like a Doug gim these guys profiles who you know not winners

Right on on tour you want guys who are just coming in flaming hot guys who are coming in flaming hot who kind of fit the mold if I were to be afraid of somewhere where with Doug gim it might be part three scoring right like could

Be better but at 70 to1 to win and plus 230 as a as a top 20 guy guy who’s a great long iron player um great ball Striker and coming in really hot I thought that price was just outrageous well I think the market kind

Of caught up with you on that as well I’m looking at bet 365 right now Doug gim 40 to1 to win this tournament now holy smokes yeah so he’s getting a ton of steam I I understand it completely it makes a lot of sense to me I mean I love

The gim Reaper he’s my guy but 40 to1 Joe to out like 70 to1 yes 40 to1 for gim to win this tournament that’s a that’s a not a great price yeah it’s a it’s a reach you’re buying a stock at essentially an all-time high there with Doug gim but he’s playing unbelievable

His last five tournaments can he keep the run up uh we’ll we’ll have to wait and see this week but he’s been on an incredible run was was awesome to sort of follow him around the players a little bit had his had his Shining Moment on 17 there so um yeah we’ll have

To see if he’s able to pull through and do it once again so we got cam young top 20 Doug gim top 20 for the placement Market where are you going Joe with your gold selection you know what I’m going to stick in placement Market but I’m going to go top 40

Pat I’m gonna go Adam hadlin I know he dropped a six iron in the lake at TPC Saw Grass on the 18th hole or whatever Club it was he’s going to need to probably get refitted this week but he had the weekend to do so he’s coming

Back to the V bar where he’s played good historically um obviously got his sort of Maiden PGA Tour Victory there and a bit of a hit or miss up and down season so far for Adam hadwin a T4 the Genesis about a month ago um he played really

Well with the American Express as well I just think Pat for me this is a motivation play with Adam hadwin President’s Cup coming up obviously in Canada he has got a ton to play for and I think that may be where you saw some of that frustration boil over for a

Player like hadwin someone who’s probably um to be honest been rightfully passed up by someone like Nick Taylor that he didn’t see coming there’s a lot there’s Connor there’s Hughes there’s Fenson there are a lot of Canadian vying for spots on a very important president Cup team this summer and Adam hadwin I

Think believes he should be on that team and he has to start playing really well and this is a week where he shows back up to a course where he has very positive energy um you know it was a couple of bad swings last week at Saw

Grass and a miscut and that place can do that to you very quickly um much more forgiving in a sense off the te where you’re not going to have to deal with drops and penalty hazards as much it’s more of a true ball striking test um and

I think that hopefully he can have a decent approach week and get things going in the right direction he has even money plus 100 in the top 40 Market this week I like that bet I’m taking it on my card all right so so no negative money

No minus in front of any of these numbers so far for the gold selections I like it once again get your ass on Underdog fantasy.com using Code Mayo the pat Mayo Experience open Thursday drafts will be launched on the drafts page as soon as the tea times are released for

The valpar championship so let’s fill that up as quickly as possible to make it bigger and I don’t want to say better than rake free maybe they’ll give us money back on it add some money to the tournaments I don’t know what Underdog is up to on that front but it is rake

Free this week the Thursday only draft but what I want to do is hit some Thursday pick thems with you guys right now and see if we can find some winners I’ve come up with three for Underdog that I like and let’s narrow this down

To two so we’ll do a group consensus on this one I had Tony feno higher than two and a half Bogies or Worse Brad what do you make of it well for my Tony fenale future I hope it doesn’t happen but it makes total sense especially when you like when you

Look at Underdog you have to look at the numbers they have they’re projecting them 70 uh a score of 70 um but five birdies um so you know there’s got to be at least two or three Bogies in there and then Tony just with his game he’s

Going to have to have have that clutch putting this could be a week where he doesn’t have the clutch putting that comes with him um those five foot Putters those comebackers so I kind of like that Joe do you like that one or do you like Min woe higher than seven

Strokes you know I think like like I like I would prefer minwoo there um minwoo is just has seem so much more volatility Tony worries me a little bit you know I was shocked to see Patty’s number one in Strokes gain approach this season like he’s really been dialed in

With the iron play which I didn’t necessarily expect at least for guys in this field I think minwoo probably goes over par this week and in like are we just talking round one here yeah we’re just talking round one I say wo yeah see I like minwoo as

Well because and we’ll get to this later on in the show The Magic of editing that these part fives aren’t getable when the power fives aren’t getable it’s tougher for minwoo yeah y like that’s his bread and butter right there uh the other one I want to throw on was Eric Cole lower

Than 25.35 fantasy points I think it might be over for Eric Cole for the moment Brad I think it might be too and I I’ve been Clinging On To What was last season like we’ve heard stories of he just needs a break or he just needs to rest

His body he’s plays in so many events I just don’t think he’s playing good golf right like he’s a guy who needs I don’t think he’s like a superstar golfer who has all of these weapons so he needs to be hitting Fairways he needs to be gaining Strokes on approach and he’s

Just not doing that so I I I’m down with it I he’s on my fantasy team and I reached for him this year because he helped me get to the fantasy uh finals last year and I’m regretting it so I hope it doesn’t win I hope he goes way over the

Fantasy points but yeah the dude’s game is not in a good spot right now yeah he’s only been over this number in a single round Joe in one of his past 10 Rounds yeah he’s he’s struggling and I didn’t think he was gonna struggle like

Brad I picked him on my season long team this year um just kind of banking on the fact that I knew he was going to make a ton of starts right that’s probably why we took him Brad but the other thing is like how was I expected him to tear

Apart Florida he went off and grew up on the mini tours down here he was from Orlando he plays most of his golf in Jupiter and that just has not happened he went back to the cognizant he had one really bad hole but in total lost 10

Strokes on a prach at PGA National was decent and sort of a rebound but did it a lot with the flat stick at the Arnold Palmer which we know isn’t sustainable and then miss the cut was two of par last week at the Players Championship lost Strokes off the te lost Strokes on

Approach when those two things sort of go it’s really hard to make that up each in week in and week out with the putter I think he’s just in a little bit of a slump and probably closes out the floorida swing on a low note as he’s

Done through the first three events all right Brad or Joe I’ll throw this to you is there any player for the first round that you do like like someone like Maverick McNeely lower than like can he shoot one under or better man so tough I I was kind of

Thinking Taylor Moore right like one under or better for Taylor Moore uh defending champion and if let’s say there is some type of um some type of pattern where defending Champions just automatically play well their next trip here why can’t Taylor Moore start off hot in round one Joe I bet Taylor Moore

For that exact reason there’s a history of repeat winners so I’ll bet Taylor Moore yeah I don’t mind Taylor Moore at all if there’s one player I’d probably look to play over and higher on um I’m looking to Jordan spe I followed him really closely last week as I was with

The m Roy and hin group something is off with the swing right now he had sort of the the rules thing and I think that that was sort of a symptom of the frustration that has been building up on the course for him at this point he’s

Had a I know he flew yesterday he’s a short prep week was down in the Bahamas he’s now taken on this additional responsibility of being the voice of the PGA Tour and the polic board in these meetings with the piff and all this stuff is sort of going on outside of the

Golf course that like we saw with Rory last year can really affect your play on the course I know he has a great history here but he’s not playing good golf last year before he finished T3 here Pat real quick um he had four fantastic weeks on

Approach before that start when he got T3 his last four starts on approach heading into this season have been terrible the irons are off right now there’s a lot of voices and a lot of things in boardrooms and zoom calls going on outside the golf course for

Jordan Speed I would probably look to fade him this week okay well how about this one because we know that the par fivs are difficult at relative to par fives at almost every single course on tour really like when you kind of break it down like you the

Easiest one is hold number one like that’s your chance for an eagle it’s 560 yards the rest of them like barely play below par like the birdie rate is like 32% 31% 21% % for number five 41% for number one but like you take a look at

The bogey rate the bogey rate for number five is 15% like that’s outrageously high for a power five yeah number 11 is 10% what if if Jordan’s not driving the ball well and he always has the magic beans to scramble and make these ridiculous birdies so this is going to

Look stupid how about we just do Eric Cole lower than 25.35 fantasy points and cuz I’m greedy we get the uh the 1.1 hot tamale special here on underdog for Jordan spe higher than 18 half cumulative per five Strokes in round one so we can shoot one under on the per

Fives and we’re fine he just can’t get to two under and maybe he can throw a bogey in there what do you think love it Brad oh man um you don’t if you don’t like it I just I don’t know I I I think I have this soft spot for Jordan and

It’s the soft spot at this event right I’m such a Vibes better like I like Good Vibes well last year when I was at vpar I accidentally parked in the players’s parking lot and they just like kind of let me go through and instead and Jordan

Speed was a golfer that I saw and instead of him just being like dude what are you doing here he’s like hey what’s up man how’s your day going and I’m just like now I just like want to root for him and be like play better I almost

Took him last week at 25 to1 his game’s in a bad spot but what he needs to go one he needs to go two under can’t go better than one under yeah but I mean but but two of these holes you can bogey and Jordan Speed not afraid to like rope

It into the trees 15% then we have another like eight% on two of them yeah I I would take it I mean I wouldn’t you get the little Chili Pepper yeah give me the little Chili Pepper give me a little boost on it all right so that’s the

Official Underdog play code Mayo at Underdog and I’ll put this out on Twitter too you can just click the link it’ll automatically populate this entry if you want to tail along for us and you get a deposit match of up to 100 bucks it’s going to be Eric Cole lower than 25

35 fantasy points in round one Jordan spe higher with the hot tamale 18.5 cumulative per five Strokes 100 pays $313 recapping last week of how me Byron and Ben Coley did we got 0 for three with the gold 0 for three with the silver but three and 0 as a part of the

Bronze and the bronze it was no slouch Doug gim plus 333 for Byron I had Harmon top Lefty minus 15 and Ben went with a parlay of Harmon Harmon low Lefty minus 150 parlay with Grio low South American minus 150 which was also a winner so you got

Basically got your money back if you bet all all nine you probably broke right around even which is our worst week of the year so far on the best bet show for golf so you know if your worst week is going to be a break even week I mean

That that’s where we really want to be here as we head into the silver selections I’ll kick it off with maybe I’m just buying a bit too much into this and what he’s done at the course but I actually liked what I saw from Matthew neith uh especially on

Sunday when things weren’t really going right for him he was able to pull a chip in out of his ass and it’s a good course for him because he hits a ton of Fairways he’s very good with his irons and his game is starting to round back

Into form just a little bit not quite where he was when he finished third at the valpar a few years ago he’s doesn’t have that quite high-end ball striking prowess as he did but we know that it’s in there this field is a I mean it’s not

A weak field by means but once you get past the Big 10 to 12 guys in the field everyone’s kind of the same so I went with Matthew neith plus 240 for a top 30 and that includes the ties he’s played this tournament twice Joe he’s never finished

Outside of the top 20 so let’s go with the Knights who say n Smith the nights of D Smith I was waiting for it there it is um I actually followed him a good bit because you know me I stay glued on the course a little

Bit to my guy Denny McCarthy and Matt n Smith was with him and played much better than Denny um and he had his whole family there it was nice to see him sort of play well you mentioned off the te gained over three gained another two on approach the

T to Green week was fantastic and it’s a place where was it 2022 Pat I was just trying to look up that he almost won here and was in the final group yeah T3 in 2022 um had a fantastic week he was catching a lot of publicity in media

That week talking pretty openly about some changes that he made um from sort of a a psychological standpoint that had really sort of freed him up that week and he’s played well here the following year as well so good week last week to build on nice spot here from Nat need

Smith yeah when you see like in Phoenix he loses six Strokes on approach I think it’s the most he’s ever lost in yet is the most he’s ever lost on approach in a tournament is that really like when you do sort of even short-term modeling uh just two really bad rounds if you’re

Looking at the past even 24 or 12 rounds is really going to put a guy down but when you start taking a look at overall what he’s still doing well like the irons haven’t been like I said quite as as they once were where he was just gaining like clockwork every single week

It’s been a bit more up and down but then you start to put some context into it like did we really expect him to gain a whole bunch at Tory Pines I mean I didn’t so big deal on that one you take a look at the cognizant like if you

Finish in the negatives at the cognizant that could just be one bad shot where you lost like an entire stroke because you put it in the water and no one else did that day so I’m hoping that this T green is back something clicked for him

The irons are back and obviously he is puted very well these surfaces over the years so I’ll go with n smith top 30 is not much of an ass Matt so figure it out Brad silver pick my silver pick I’m going with the outright winner and when I say this name

I don’t any SCS but I told myself uh back during API when we get to TPC I’m betting Scotty Sheffer to win the players right I went on the PJ tours golf bet and I think all three of the panelists were like Brad you’re crazy no

One’s ever one back to back and what do I do as a as your your your classic Gambler I get in my own way then I said they’re right I’m not going to bet them well before um was this before Mexico I believe I said oh no after Mexico I said

I’m gonna bet Sam Burns um to to get his third championship at valpar and then he goes on to have two pretty poor um outings at Arnold Palmer and API and I mean AD Palmer in TVC but I can actually forgive those outings because at Arnold Palmer he just straight left the course

Uh he had a really tough Sunday you could kind of like trick yourself into saying that he was in contention and then at the Players he had similar instances where he would card double bogeys but this is a little bit easier of a test and and like you guys said

Earlier this is just a ball Striker’s course and if I look on look on this sheet look on the on on the odd sheet there’s no ball Striker I want more than than than Sam Burns at least in the way he’s playing right now the putter is

Still doing all right I think he lost lost at the Players but like when you’re not in contention and you’re not really playing all that great I I could just strike through that especially with a guy of of Sam Burns putting uh prowess because what he’s going to go like 10

Events winning uh gaining Strokes on the putting surface and then loses one that’s not going to get me off them so I’m going to stick to my guns here at 12 to1 gross number but I said it like four weeks ago that I’m going bet him and I’m

Going to continue with how I should have done with Scotty at The Players I bet Sam Burns last week what a loser one week away you’re one week too early I’ve bet him a few time bet him at AMX too just that the and it’s funny

Because he has six wins yet every I I’ve never hit any of them but every time that I do bet on him he puts himself he didn’t put himself in contention last week but the majority of the time he puts himself in contention to win and

Then and like when he went into the water on 17 on Sunday at Saw Grass I was like yeah this is exactly what he’d do if he was winning by three Strokes too so there’s really no change so it’s nice to see that’s not just pressure that

Affects Sam Burns if there’s water to be found Joe he’s gonna find it yeah he’s gonna find it if there’s a Hospitality tent to be found he’s probably gonna find that as well but you know Pat you came on my show a few weeks ago and we sort of touched on Sam Burns

And like he’s sort of evolving as a player into much more consistent I will say um all of his last 10 starts he’s made the cut in his worst finish within those 10 starts was a T45 at the Players last week he crept in at through the cut

Line and I think sometimes you know I try I look at Sam Burns and I asked him a question this past week when he stepped up to sort of the media mic there and I asked him sort of about his aggressiveness and it seems like he’s a player that’s always out there hunting

Birdies and I think sometimes with Sam Burns it’s like the absence of thought is helpful for him I was looking at quotes from this course when he won and they were asking him about the greens and he was like I think they’re Bermuda but they might be po like for him to not

Even really know the green surfaces just shows you how he’s just going out there to play and sometimes clouding your mind with too many thoughts on the course can be a bad thing and Sam Burns is just going out there and playing aggressively round after round week after week and

He’s producing a ton of results I don’t mind the outright pick at all Brad I worry a little bit about the fatigue of what last week at the Players may have BR but you can say that for almost all the guys at the top of the field I

Wouldn’t have pictured this as a great force fit for Sam Burns right off the bat but backtack wins and then a great finish last year is this like the type of course you would have thought Pat that is a great fit for someone like Sam

Burns see yes I do because I feel like when Sam burns like in our minds I think when we think about Sam Burns it’s like oh this guy is going to hit a bunch of greens and regulation but he’s just going to make all these 25 foot putts

Like that is his path to success but when you take a look at when he’s done his best be it at Sanderson firms or the match play here or even places like Riv or Tory Pines where he’s had success as well he basically just goes full go with

The driver and he can control it perfectly like you can almost tell immediately like at the beginning of a round how well is Sam Burns driving it if he’s driving it well he’s going to have a great score that day and that’s how I knew that my player’s bet was

Pooched when he put it into I don’t know six consecutive Fairway bunkers at the Players it’s like well he’s just [ __ ] himself every single time off the tea and he doesn’t he and listen all these guys can have great approach weeks when we think about Sam Burns it’s not like

Oh he’s Callin moraes he’s going to gain 12 Strokes on approach that’s not really his game he needs to gain a whole bunch with the driver he needs to be like okay with his approach like gain a stroke or two or like whatever he doesn’t need to

Be leading the field and that then he chips and putts really well like his game weirdly enough I think would make him live eventually in the right week at a US Open or at a PGA Championship now that the PGA Championship has been a little tougher whereas I don’t see that

Game translating as well to somewhere like Augusta yeah he’s going to have that he’s going to have that round right where he’s seven or eight under par we know that because of how aggressive he plays and historically he’s always done that it’s just a matter of those other

Three rounds within the tournament being able to make par when he’s out of position which has proven to be a difficult task for him but you’re right when he gets it right he gets it really right he’s got six PGA Tour victories and a good major championship season or

A final pairing on a Sunday is going to further that confidence and put him right up there and make himself believe that he’s one of the top players in the world yeah because he’s what Brad like a fringe top 10 American player if you don’t count the Liv guys yeah absolutely

And I actually think he’s like one of the more underrated winners like six wins on the PJ tour is like nothing to scoff about but when you look at betting cards of us handicappers like the ones that are on Twitter you don’t see his name in there too often right but you do

See the guys who don’t win a lot just consistently on cards um I mean I would rather pick a winner a guy with win Equity than most of these no offense losers we put on our cards at the similar prices like Sam Burns is consistently a 22 to1 guy yet we’re

Picking guys with two PGA Tour wins week in and week out at the same price I always find Burns is better when no one is on him at any tournament like like how popular was Sam Burns ever Joe when he won any of these events and people

Picked him like that’s why I I bet him an American Express this year and I really thought I was going to cash that ticket until again he went into the water on the 71st hole and that was the old end of Sam burns on that one but

Like no one really won he was like 35 to one it’s like this is a good course for him he plays Pete die courses pretty well and that was another week where he just dominated with his driver the the one fun thing about burns the out that

You always have which is sort of the antithesis of most losers that we do bet on week to we who never win is he can Putt and that’s always a nice out to have sometimes he can Putt and he has got balls on the putting green in terms

Of from 15 20 feet um you’re right I think back to when he won and I don’t think any of those weeks he was like a 25 to one guy I know when he won the first V bar I was looking back at my old

Cards and I had him it was like 80 to one when he sort of broke through the match play last year I believe was a pretty big number as well he had to take down Scotty in the final round so yeah I think that he’s another one of those

Guys kind of like cam young that fluctuates up and down the board when he’s playing really well you’ll dip and you’ll see these 12 to ones in a weaker field but you’ll also like you’re going to be able if he plays poorly a couple of weeks you can get him in a major

Championship at probably 60 or 70 to one if he has a couple of bad weeks so he really moves up and down the board and what we’ve seen is his game is pretty much suited for anywhere he’s won at Birdy Fest he’s won on difficult courses

Um when he’s playing really well he’s a topend talent without a doubt the problem is Brad for major championships is Sam Burns has never finished better than 20th in any major championship yeah I think that a lot of that has to do with like the mentality

Of it right like he’s the type of golfer who always has that one round that round where you’re just like scratching your head like Burns how are you three over on the round you should be just killing it maybe a couple balls in the water maybe a couple balls in the tree and

Major championships if you don’t have that I don’t know the bounceback mentality of I can go from hole to Hole in every single hole not make a ton of mistakes and just keep grinding it out then you’re not g to have that success and and I don’t think I don’t think

That’s how Sam Burns is I think Sam Burns goes out he plays golf and when his game is going well it’s going well not I just carded a double bogey on the last hole I need a massive bounceback and to get myself back into the contention or or to make the weekend he

Doesn’t miss a ton of cuts with his last cut was in a major championship but I just think that’s his mentality like maybe it’s that was he Louisiana just you know chilling on the Airboat you know where there’s Gators over there who cares I stick my foot in if I get bit by

A gator I get bit by a gator you can’t have that kind of mentality where you just going with the flow at a major I think major Champions especially guys who contend at majors are very calculated or they’re just the best golfer in the world yeah like it’s one

Thing to say Scotty Sheffer is going to show up and play well John is going to show up is how do these next level guys really do and it probably is a lot of it to do with mentality so Joe one more silver pick on the board it belongs to you who is

It going to the matchup Market P tournament 72 whole matchup Aaron Ry over Christian bazen H Ry is minus 115 here um it’s just for me it comes down to I think that there’s going to be an elevated importance to having some accuracy off the te this week Pat Uh it

Played the rough played up like to 3.75 Ines last year they raised the rough they brought it in closer to the greens making Fairways in play a more attainable stat for those who are really good at it and Aaron Ry is the second best player on the field Christian bazay

Hoods outside the top 100 when you look at Greens in regulation Aaron Ry is top 10 in the field this week Aaron Christian bazen hoot is outside the top 100 so he’s got these different things really working for him B Zaden hood is kind of really lean on the Putter and

He’s been fantastic on approach but he’s losing Strokes nearly every single start off the te and this is one of those golf courses that I feel like penalizes that particularly with the rough up it damages your ability to have angles into these greens it lowers your chances of

Hitting them in regulation where he can sort of lean on that Putter and I think that Ry just being able to keep it in play in the short grass is going to be advantageous it’s essentially nearly even money right now is minus 115 I just checked it before the show it’s still

Sitting at that price I’ve had it been really good on matchups this year so I had to bring one here and I’m gonna make it my silver play with Aaron Ry so I like Ry this week as well my issue with Ry is someone who just is kind of a [ __ ]

For Ry is that I think that unless it’s Fescue greens and we’re somewhere in the British Isles he just can’t make any putts like ever ever make any putts but against Bez here I mean you could have just said I betting against Bez because cust picked Bez to win that would be good

Enough that you know it was a factor that I really should have brought up and it’s a shame that I didn’t but absolutely that sort of puts it over the edge if I would have known that I would have factored that in more it would have

Been my goal so Ry right now I ran my valpar model which is available on the research show it’s also available for you guys to look at inside of the newsletter with my waiting and everything and you can go adjust that when you are a fantasy National member

Fantasy national.com Mayo for 20% off get the monthly right now take you right through the Heritage so you get the Masters in there too Aaron Ry comes in number three Joe number one in good drives gained and it’s not usually a stat that I look at all that often but I

Really do think that here US Open places where look this isn’t US Open USGA rough you can get it onto the green if you hit it into the rough but uh I do like to play with the filter and put the rough on long and average just to see if can

Continue to be up there in good drives gain and like you kind of pointed out with Ry he he clenches his good drive check mark not through greens and regulation every time is through hitting the Fairway every time so he rates out number one in that stat other guys

Inside the top 10 right now Damon horsh Bryce Garnett who just won putam Zack Blair who had a very high-end finish here a year ago Vic Perez is another one where Bez is down at like a 100 in this field yeah and the thing also with with

Bez is you look at his numbers and he’s gaining so many strokes on approach but one of the things we know about Strokes gained and one of the sort of flaws there he’s gaining so many strokes on approach because he’s never in the Fairway but those tournaments where he

Has 3.7 Strokes gained on approach Pebble Beach when he’s gained four strokes at Waste Management phage open when he does it at the cognizant classic those are not courses with very penal rough that is going to sort of damage his ability from still getting to that green and when he’s hitting From the

Rough and he puts it to 25 ft he’s therefore gaining a ton of Strokes on approach that way I don’t think this is that type of course I think the rough is going to be a legitimate Hazard this week and prevent him from hitting some of those greens in regulation which is

Another reason why I kind of leaned on Ry when I saw those two paired up in a head tohe head Joe I know you’re a member at Fantasy National and anyone who is watching who’s a member at Fantasy National I would recommend getting yourself on that wait list the

Banner that’s up there at the top right now uh the app finally got approved through the app Apple Store in testing so you need an iPhone I guess or an iPad I suppose but I think it’s optimized to iPhone did you see any screenshots of the new leaderboard by chance looks

Incredible um I’ve I have it downloaded on my phone I’m excited to be able to sort of track golfers through it this week and see kind of how it looks and how it functions in real life but the interface uh looks awesome it’s super appealing and you know me I’m I’m sort

Of a graphic guy so I like the way that it it looks um and hopefully just being able to check out the functionality looks like a great addition to the to the fantasy National sort of network there yeah Brad you’re going to want to

Get in on this no one once this app is released fully to the public and not just for Fantasy National members which it will be for a while as we go through testing and all this um imagine having the ability to open up your phone and

Track the players that you want and you don’t have to click I mean it’s faster than the PGA app just because of the deal that we have with shotlink I don’t know why theirs is so bad but you don’t have to open up a golfer to see what

They’re doing it just appears on your screen screen doesn’t that sound great it sounds amazing actually I I went on last night to try to set up myself with the Early Access but I was using my computer and I couldn’t find my phone I was like a this is a phone

Project but I’m definitely gon to make sure I do it today before I head out of town and it’s it’s out of sight out of mine I’m excited yeah it’s gonna be good I Mo said he’s going to start approving people on Thursday morning he has to wait till the tournament actually starts

In order to do that so be on the lookout if you’re on the wait list for Thursday morning because we got it through the first round of people got it at the Players Championship I saw a few people on the course using it while they were

Watching it and they said it was pretty close to real time so about as close to real time as you’re going to get obviously it’s not going to be exactly real time there’s probably like a 15sec delay but it’s pretty cool to watch the

Shot on the Main feed on TV like you see Scotty Sheffer hit a shot then like seven seconds later it updates on the phone without you having to do anything so imagine what guys are doing from all over the course it’s going to be incredible that way bronze picks for the

Valpar championship I was actually going to take Sam Burns top 20 Brad at minus 120 just because seemed very safe to me but you have him outright so I am not going to put him on the card I’m actually going to go way down I’m going

To play a top 40 market so top 40 Grayson Sig plus 170 uh the best par three player in the field right now which is shocking because the Dude cannot make a putt to save his life but if we think about approach play he has been excellent he is number one on par

3es from 200 to 225 yards over the past 24 rounds top 20 in good drives gain top 10 T green Brad he cannot putt from 5 to 10 feet however no one can putt from inside 10 feet at this tournament so hopefully that equalizes it wait I was

So close to taking Grayson Sig top 20 he modeled out uh sixth in my primary model and a lot of that obviously has to do with the uh the long par three um scoring ability there but I end up staying away and I wish I had some like

Like crazy logic behind it maybe volatility um but I feel like when you have these and this is not a weak field obviously but a weaker field event due to the know backto back Florida swing events that are Signature Events you have these guys who are just going to

Pop and I feel like Sig has the opportunity to pop I just can’t get over uh you know his form right like the dudes just miss so many putts like Loser on the green Loser on the green Loser on the green and I want guys who can putt

When I’m putting putting like those kind of tickets out but I mean if he just has like I figure if he has like a neutral putting week right like gains 0.1 he’s probably the kind of guy who will finish you know T28 and then I think that’s a

Very winnable bet but for a top 20 for me I just couldn’t do it because I needed a little bit more confidence in the flat stick yeah so top 40 is where I want to go to although basically he finishes outside the top 40 when he

Makes the cut Joe or he finishes inside the top 20 those are like his two outcomes when he makes but the driving and irons are on point just like can we get lucky with the putter at least once yeah the ball striking is on point

You know I know he’s like sort of a Georgia South Carolina guy I they the the course at vbar looks like it’s dropped somehow it’s like 0. five miles from the Gulf Coast there um you know from being there Brad it looks like it’s been dropped in the middle of the South

Carolina somewhere so it’s a very unique feel um a lot of people and I was sort of surprised to hear this but there were a lot of people sort of in the media center last week that were talking about the comparisons and how it’s the most similar that they thought to Augusta

National which kind of caught me a little bit off guard but um Grayson Sig obviously the ball striking has been fantastic and a top 40 Market is probably the right place to play him right now when you look at the volatility with the putter Brad bronze pick let’s end this out three winners

For you and if you get the Sam Burns that’ll be the highest one that’s been a winner so far on the best bet show well after Sam Burns wins we’re going to look at the leaderboard and we’re going to see Sam Ryder sitting inside the top 20

I bet Sam Ryder top 20 I believe that price is some was somewhere around where is it plus 300 um he’s just been a great putter in Florida so far um gaining over four or five Strokes on the putting surface here and his approach play has been pretty

Freaking good uh so one a guy who’s going to be consistent off the tea his putting’s heating up and he’s he’s been okay off the tea I guess I exaggerated but we have to have a little hyperbole when we’re taking a guy like Sam Ryder

Um to finish inside the top 20 and he’s also he’s he finished top 20 here last year but I just have to like remember the Sam Ryder from like 2019 uh and 2021 was not the same Sam ryer we see now like I feel like Sam

Ryer is like one of those guys who’s gonna start seeing his name and contention a lot more um because of how great he’s been on approach and and he those courses where they’re super demanding off the te obviously he won’t be the guy you want right like when you

See highlights of of Sam Ryder on uh PGA Tour live early in the morning they’re generally generally him doing something crazy out of the thick rough because you know his Ball’s going to be all over the place on the course but I think if he if

You know he clubs down here he stays consistent on approach and the putter remains hot that’s that’s really vital because the his stat profile is not great before the before he got to Florida but if it remains hot I I feel like at plus 300 is something that was

Worth a stab I can do you one better here I can get you plus 320 on a Sam Ryder top 20 so there we go so plus 320 for Sam Ryder to finish inside the top 20 I always like Ryder Joe but I just he I just felt like coming off the good

Week although he does tend to string together good weeks in a row maybe I should be looking at that more where are you going with bronze okay so my bronze pick I’m going up to the top 20 Market you know I kind of did this before Pat with the golden

Adam hadwin and just like blindly ignored recent form which is never a great strategy but I’m going to try to buy low here on sun JM I think that he’s starting to play better golf um I saw signs at the Arnold Palmer Invitational there were some signs at the Players

Championship t18 t31 and those two finishes and I believe he made he made his like temporary home here for a while in the Tampa Palm Harbor area um I talked to Jason rousson on the show last night who sort of confirmed that really likes this course at the V bars played

It twice with two like a T4 was his best finish I just think that given the guys at the top of the board he is an opportunity to sort of Buy in early on a player that um you know a few years ago we would have all considered to be a

Blue chip stock right he could never miss on approach it was really bad there through early February the last two tournaments it’s been much more positive I know really love his ability still that he possesses to get up and down around the green here I think the more

Difficult that it plays it should reward his type of really really long-term zoomed out skill set and he’s plus 165 in a top 20 Market this week I think is probably the best value of those guys on the top and I see him sort of continuing

To build and make his way back toward the top of the leader I Like It by low on sunj that might be the the DraftKings play of the week just try to lead your team off with him or try to figure out a way to work sunj and because I would

Imagine he’s not going to be super popular but I’ll discuss that more with Tambo in studio on Wednesday outright picks Brad do you have anyone else besides gim and burns to win the tournament you know this is gross um but I went with Tony fow to win

And God I freaking hate betting on Tony fow but doesn’t just just feel like the kind of feel Tony fow is gonna gonna g to win at right like his his his approach numbers have been pretty solid and like putting was like the thing Tony feno hasn’t been putting great but

Quietly put to put together two solid putting outings Mexico he was a Gainer and then he gained even more at TPC I just feel like this is just one of those fields that Tony can win and when I was thinking about looking at the odds right I was looking at like Jordan Speed

Justin Thomas and at the time I think Brian Harmon they were priced lower they still are lower than Tony fow and I just can’t I I mean I can’t get behind it I am gonna I did bet on Brian Harman at a better price but I mean Tony fow 28 to1

I think is what he’s at yeah give me a stab give me a stab in a massive disappointment when he’s just missing putt after putt think he had like a 34% uh three-foot putt success rate a couple a couple tournaments ago about a month ago so I’m ready to be

Disappointed yeah I had fena my main DK lineup in the big 250 Joe on Sunday I was like all right Tony’s playing all right the ball striking continues to be good and he’s making a few putts I watch him on Sunday it’s like birdie from 3

Feet Miss par from 2 feet Miss it’s like oh my God uh it’s funny we’re going to get to the underdog section here in a second but the only play that I have on so far for Tony is two or more higher than two and a half Bogies or Worse on

Thursday he might have like eight birdies but he’s going to be Bing if you like if you put him into any sort of like push him back to the wall where he has to get it up and down or make a seven it just always feels like it’s never going

In yeah absolutely and that’s sort of my dilemma at the top of the board I wanted to look at Tony I wanted to look at Cameron young I feel like they have good odds both of them suck from four to 10 feet and that’s so important this week

In terms of saving par um their inability to sort of cash in and they’re both ranked in like the bottom like 124th and 119th in the field this week and putting from that range um I just don’t feel confident in an outright ticket when a guy is that poor cashing

In from that range you look at you know even the players who played well last week and someone like Nick Taylor and Xandra shley for a while like they were like never missed from inside six feet and finally when wendam Clark missed one and when Xander missed him it cost him

The tournament so I would imagine ultimately at some point that’s what ends up biting Tony Fen now that’s what ends up biting Cameron young in the butt that’s what ends up biting Justin Thomas in the butt and these guys that are trying to really capture that Victory

And get back back on top you got to make sixf Footers so I also bet Brian Herman Joe I bet him at 25 to1 I’ve seen that number is down even more I was hoping it would go back up but Harmon this week to

Me because I met him last week too so I was right there with you y uh and I like as I mentioned a few times on every show that I’ve done so far he is the guy that really should have won that tournament when you go back and watch the final

Round he’s the one who gave it away strangely enough but this feels like he comes in dead last or he wins this week like he might have nothing left in the tank yeah I had him too I had it early like 150 to one last week and you know

When you sort of get that type of clv that it’s never gonna come through and you always knew how it was going to end but the interesting thing about Brian Haron that I noticed last week and I I’ll put it into play again this week

Which is a reason why I took him he can really hit driver and deploy driver on a ton of holes in which other players I don’t know if they can’t but they don’t like you watched Xander and wendham Clark and how many times were they taking iron off the tea or like Fairway

Metal because driver brings in two much trouble for them it does going to do that again at valpar you’re going to hear that it’s a club down course well not necessarily for Brian Haron because he is so deadly accurate and has that thing on an absolute string right now

That Brian Harmon was ripping driver on number one last week he was ripping driver on number 10 holes where other players will not take driver he’ll pull it out because he’s not like going to hit it he knows he’s not going to hit it

330 but if he can hit it 305 all of a sudden Brian Harmon’s in a group with Windam Clark and he’s playing 25 yards closer to the green than wendam Clark on four five holes that day because he’s so accurate with that club and he’s only

Left with 80 yards or 90 yards or 100 yards left into the hole and we know what a good Putter and a good wedge player he is I think he can sort of deploy that strategy once again this week and hit driver where other players will not because he knows the dispersion

Of his Miss is so much tighter than these other guys the one issue I have with Herman and this is what actually cost him it was I mean you can say like the two Miss puts on one and two really did cost him but it’s actually the

Driver that was the issue that I had with him yes he was able to take advantage of 15 because he could hit driver of one like you mentioned where he could hit driver but on the holes where driver was necessary it [ __ ] him like he he couldn’t get it

Over he couldn’t get it couldn’t get over to the bunkers on 12 like you got to be able to do that you need to be able to if you’re gonna miss on 16 and put it in the pine straw well you need to be down there a little bit farther so

You can actually have like a decent shot still into the green and not have to lay back to 160 yards for your third and just turn these easy holes into something that’s far more difficult like when you don’t birdy the two easiest holes on the course and everyone you’re

Playing with does I mean you don’t deserve to win at that point so Brad you’ve walked around in his Brook the per five here they’re not super getable in two are they no and I think that’s what kind of levels it out for for Harmon right like

I have this like weird thing betting briyan Haron I think I’ve bet him three times luckily I did bet him at the open but when it’s these courses that you need to dominate Dominate and there’s four par fives here so you need to have great scoring on par fives but I mean

Dominate like when you need to put some Eagles on your card Brian harman’s not going to be the guy for you but here I think there’s some par fives here that it’s okay you know you you walk away with par par is good score um so I I’m

Glad you guys are on Brian Harmon as well because I didn’t know if we were going to get a little bit of of you know missing out fatigue right like he got so close and he’s just no shows this week I thought he was a prime candidate to

Withdraw from this event like you have to think you’re one of the long shots in the field and you find yourself in contention on Sunday probably should have won didn’t bet him at the 150 and I I missed the number so I thought I was in shambles I was in shambles after

Windam Clark’s putt but we’ll see what happens um one thing I do want to add to I think was what Joe said like with Brian Harmon he’s also sneaky long for a little guy right like he’s not hitting his driver 280 out there it’s still like

290 295 so it gives him a little bit of Advantage when he’s when he’s able to pull driver at a course like this um he knows he’s not going to miss crazy he’s going to have a wedge in which a wedge for a wedge in for a guy who’s already

Good with his wedges and a good putter is a pretty dangerous combination yeah like I’m trying to think of historical comps because Joe this was going around about like what Sheffer oh sheffer’s Tiger Woods kind of thing and then I think it was Kyle Porter put up the data

Golf rankings of like the best like runs anyone’s had in their careers and vj’s run in 2004 which everyone forgets because tiger was still so good in 2004 like VJ won five times that year and didn’t win player of the year but that’s basically who chef is sheer is VJ sing

He’s a guy who amazing T to Green in C put yeah you know I worry that he’s found something with this Mallet that is going to eventually lead him on a run but this is just how you naturally feel right when the number one player in the world rattles off two back-to-back wins

We’re always going to probably overinflate and Elevate what we think is going to happen from him career-wise and we’ll forget that he went 52 weeks prior without a victory and looked to be old like uber frustrated anytime he stood over an 8ot Putt and uncomfortable so there’s es and flows to everything I

Think right now is probably not the best time to try and figure out what Scotty sheffler’s career is going to be because it feels like at this point how is he not going to win The Masters how is he not going to win the US Open when he

Plays like this we just know it’s impossible to sort of sustain that level of play unless you’re one of the you know have one of the three or four best seasons of all time in professional golf which he has a lot of work left to do to get there

Yeah the last thing I want to make about Brian Harman Brad was I was very impressed with his ability to play into the longer par fours which are going to see a lot of this week like his long irons are really good and he doesn’t

Even really hit a long iron he hits that weird like five hybrid or three hybrid or whatever the hell it is and it’s a weapon for him on these long power 3es too like he just kind of sticks it to 15 feet every time yeah he does and listen we watch a

Lot of this golf on TV I just think it’s so cute watching Brian Haron play golf right like he’s just small guy trying to Muscle Hamster the ball down the Fairway and he pulls out his little hybrid gets it on the green rolls in the crazy putt

Crowd Goes Wild like how can you not root for a story like that especially with you have these built beefy guys bombing off the tea or you have guys who are just tall in stature like Scotty sheffler and when you have a little Brian Harmon out there you know just

Plucking along and having success that will do it on the pat Mayo experience Best Bets to recap the gold picks for us cam Young top 20 plus 150 the gim Reaper top 20 plus 230 Adam hadwin Joe top 40 plus 100 so even money on that front the

Silver picks for me Matthew neith top 30 plus 240 Sam Burns to win for Brad at 12 to1 and then Aaron Ry over C Bez minus 115 for Joe bronze picks Grayson Sig at plus 170 for a top 40 Sam Ryder top 20 at plus 320 for Brad and sun JM to get

Back on the horse top 20 plus 115 for Joe that will do it for us Joe the preferred lons podcast is already out if people want to go check it and sub to that YouTube channel did you get over the Thousand Subs yet almost man I’m at like 975 I’m

Hoping this appearance and all the uh Mayo media Network fans out there can bump me over the the mark that I’ve been looking to hit but yeah preferred lines is out now at tour piix where you can find all my stuff on Twitter it’s been a

Pleasure as always to join you Pat and best of luck to you and every went out there for the Val bar Brad if people are unfamiliar where can they find all your work and should I be tailing your EPL bets too absolutely tail my EPL bets the EPL season’s going absolutely insane

It’s it’s probably on the verge of being my best season in the last five years I think we’ll clear the 80 unit Mark as a one unit better um so far with like six weeks seven weeks ago it’s pretty nice but you can find my work um on X mrr

Brad Thomas or on the nbcsports.com website just go to Premier League go to golf we’ll have some stuff up for UFC 300 as well uh Pat thanks for having me man yeah no problem thanks you guys for doing this early on a Tuesday morning let’s get some cash at the valpar

Championship local to both you guys in Florida so you had to bring on I had to bring on the the horses for courses for the valpar for the final stop in Florida this season obviously you can follow me at thepme if you want to get your hands

On that app that I talked about fantasy national.com Mayo to get the 20% off under dog fantasy code Mayo uh and you can probably tail some of our picks tail Kenny’s picks cuz Kenny is absolutely destroying Underdog he’s been on an underdog for two weeks he’s cashed out

$112,000 so yeah follow along Kenny and the fantasy golf degenerates up there as well that will do it for me thank you all for watching I’ll see you next time experience experience