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Good evening ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 Players Championship data dive show got a lot to cover this evening we’re going to dig deep into the data for everything TPC Saw Grass and uh the players in the players championship for this week uh
Going to be a fun show uh don’t want to waste any more time let’s get straight into it all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money it’s going to make you a much smarter
Golf Gambler and a much better golf DFS player go check fat joke go checkout fantasy national.com you won’t regret it in the description to the video there are links to all the social media where I posted some research earlier today around the previous winners of The Players Championship going back all the
Way to 2012 and a little bit of additional information um since the tournament moved to march on the schedule so if you want to see the weekly research that I do for the PGA tour for this week and every week and give me a follow over at
Your preferred social media site X is also where I place my weekly betting cards and my top player usage in the DFS contest that I play that comes out every Wednesday after the DFS tactics show uh so if you want to see those pieces of information then give me a follow over
At X and then speaking of Wednesday night uh lastly for social media gab’s Twitter handle or X handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a very good way to start your week of preparation and he continues to update you throughout the
Week with his own version of um course history recent form all that um and if you are a subscriber to his article which is free to do by the way you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat every Wednesday night as he is gracious enough to host me over
There and we continue the DFS talk over in his substack chat um we finalize our lineups uh do a lot of the ownership uh Game Theory over there um to our top plays our biggest Fades all of that so if you want to continue the DFS discussion after calls calls the only
Way you’re going to be able to do that is if you’re a subscriber to his article again it is free to do so so go show him some support uh follow him over on social media and subscribe to that article and then lastly we are Live Chat
Is open want to hear from you all what Wagers have you made uh if any for the players this week who are you targeting in DFS uh perhaps some players that you are staying away from how do you think sass is going to play what are you targeting in in players you targeting
Accuracy you targeting putting would love to hear from the uh community and chat in that regard but let’s dig into the weed of the data for the 2024 play Players Championship and we start as we always do on a Monday evening with the uh extended forecast uh over at
Windfinder now with um with the tournament being you know some 60s Plus hours out not going to put a whole lot of emphasis into this but you see Thursday looks fairly calm perhaps picks up a little bit in the latest portions of the day Friday looks pretty Gusty in
Terms of wind Saturday and Sunday um much the same in terms of Gusty so uh hard to say right now whether or not we want to have a focus on a half of the draw or whatnot cuz that has been a big factor the past couple of years that uh
Really it’s just been one half of the draw that you’ve wanted to focus on uh for the week so to say this far out but it does look like wind appears to be a factor as it normally does here at Saw Grass but there is a look at the
Extended forecast for uh the tournament this week so we’ll move to Fantasy National I’m going to do something a little bit different uh tonight and moving forward you see we got this time frame to the last three months we’re only going to be looking at data since
The century now I think we have have enough rounds or at least most players have enough rounds uh to make it statistically significant that we’re just going to be looking at the 2024 season uh of course I could look at uh just the 2024 season here uh or check
That uh filter but again most players have into the 20s or at least in the High Teens especially this week in terms of rounds um Steve Stricker uh the only one who has not played a PGA Tour round everyone else has at least one or at least two tournaments or four rounds uh
In fact norlander has two tournaments the uh Puerto Rico is still not or still has not been loaded in into fantasy National now the Arnold Palmer has but you see the Puerto Rico has not uh in norlander played last week in Puerto Rico so hopefully we’ll get that information before Wednesday but other
Wise most everybody in the field this week has uh enough rounds uh to make it statistically significant so in 2024 our top performers in the field this week have been Scotty Matthew pavon Xander Sam Burns JT Keith Mitchell Doug gim will zator Eric Van royan and Ben on
Little surprised to see a couple of these names particularly Keith Keith Mitchell um who uh has seemingly to me has not had a whole lot of success but a top 10 at the cognizant classic formerly the Honda which he is a former champion of um I completely forgot that he top 10 the
American Express he’s got a couple of top 20s um but his irons have been locked in a little bit lately so perhaps somebody that you might want to take a look at um especially if you think it’s going to get more difficult as he is somebody to Target when it is difficult
Um so there’s your top 10 in terms of total performance in the 2024 season uh I’m going to have to UNH check that filter let’s do a couple of quick Recaps here um I’m going to bring in the last two years and we’re going to look at
Pete D designs this is Pete dy’s uh main uh kch uh his shining Jewel if you will most famous uh aspect of a Pete die design so on Pete die designs in the past two years your top performers have been Xander Scotty Keegan Bradley Patrick kley Adam hadwin
Justin Thomas Carson young minw Le Jordan spe sunj and Hideki uh now do note which courses these are this is harbort toown host of the RBC Heritage which is played the week after the Masters The Stadium Course the American Express or the the host or the main course on the American
Expr uh of the American Express only two of the four rounds though are played there TPC River Highlands host of The Travelers Championship later on in the summer and of course TPC sass where we are this week so there’s a look at your top Pete Dy design players or performers
Um we can take a quick look moderate and windy um it does appear that that wind uh could be a decent Factor after looking at the um after looking at the windfinder forecast yeah I think most players have enough rounds to make this statistically significant most have above 20 so your
Top players in the past 12 months or 36 rounds in moderate and windy conditions Scotty Patrick kley Victor hin Windham Xander Cory Connor Rory Denny McCarthy Jordan spe and Matt Fitzpatrick all right um not going to do a whole lot more um I’ve been toying with the idea of looking at the difficult
Scoring um relative to par filter because oh shoot uh I need one more tab up here that is these I’ve been thinking about the difficult um only because since 2019 you’ve only had one round of easy everything else has been average or difficult and even with the or even in
Calm winds a lot of times it plays to average I am I would be interested to hear the community’s take on that um like I said I’m I’m kind of going back and forth with myself on that whether we want look at the difficult uh scoring relative to par it’s definitely
Not going to be easy by any means but if you are inclined to look at the difficult end of the spectrum your top performers when rounds are difficult Scotty Windham Clark Rory Victor hin Xander Tommy Fleetwood Patrick Canley Ricky Fowler Russell Henley and Jordan spe again not too terribly sold on that idea
Since the majority of rounds do play to average but um there is that list for you uh let’s see going to bring this back into to the last three months or the 2024 season I guess would probably be the easiest way to go about that
Let’s just go ahead and go to the prior leaderboards at the Players Championship see which metrics play well um and see if we can’t decipher who those players are that are in best form in those metrics in the field this week so looking at last year’s leaderboard in
Terms of Strokes gain you top 18 here only one player negative in off the te only two players negative in approach and minu Le uh did not do anything with his irons it was all in the putting I I’m not sure if I want to put
A whole lot of of significance into the off the te uh because a lot of these numbers are are kind of middling uh 4 and 1/2 five 4 and 1/2 I imagine that’s kind of at the top I mean you do have Klay who’s near a six and again you do have
Your cut making but you know a 44th from Harmon a 65th from SMY 51st 54th not terribly confident that off the te is going to be a major factor like the um stats where saying last night instead I do think it’s in the approach and look at look at these numbers here
N9 and 8 and 1/2 7 and 1/2 7 and 1/2 if you sort on it just a a huge amount of correlation up here at the top I mean the worst performers up near the top are middling performances I mean Tommy fleetwood’s just outside the top 25
Surrounded by your winner and runner up and several top fives top 10 so clearly the approach is where I am focusing ing most of my attention this week if we look at around the green um again some cut making you got Matt Wallace who is a pretty good around the green player Nick
Hardy uh performed pretty well but it’s pretty you get into the twos pretty on quickly with the around the green I don’t think it’s correct to ignore it considering you’ve got a lot of you know excellent performances here top 20s your winner was really high in around the
Green Top 10 and top 20s I just don’t think it carries uh ter a whole lot of of weight um we saw this in the course breakdown last night that uh that off the teen around the green are pretty similar around the green does start catching up as you move up on the
Leaderboard uh and for the winners you around the green surpassed the off the te but they’re pretty even I do think around the green is going to play a little bit more of a factor than off the te just because I’m focused on the accuracy aspect of off the tea not
Uh necessarily the distance and if we look at putting you know I I don’t think there’s going to be a whole lot to do with putting this week I me yes we’ll look at it uh for the poet trivialis overseed courses um lots of lots of pretty poor performances I mean our
Winner last year was I mean barely over field average excuse me for the week um you know outside the top 25 a middling the clunker a terrible cut made from from McNeely top 20 sure top 10 but lots of lots of middling to you know really poor
Finishes at least last year in terms of uh putting and if we look at two years ago when cam Smith won um uh top uh we’ll just look at the top 12 here cuz there’s several players that are tied for 13th um again C only a couple players negative in
Approach around the green looks pretty good up here at the at uh at the top but notice you know we got Kevin kizner at a six Russell Knox at a 3.8 everybody else is one and a half or or lower um putting again not a whole lot I
Don’t think um you do have Cam that put the Daylights out that week I don’t know kind of kind of interesting good evening P thanks for jumping in chat good to see you um how did your uh golf go today I know you had a 1:30 tea time I myself
And playing uh tomorrow morning uh around 10:00 a.m. and then again on Thursday as we are going to have some excellent weather uh in my neck of the woods but how did how did your round go today um hopefully it was it was much better than what I anticipate mine going
Like tomorrow uh but thanks for jumping in chat good to see you so if we sort again on the um Different Strokes gained like we saw just very quickly our winner neg five in off the tea he just put the Daylights out and his irons were very
Strong it’s why again I’m just focused on the irons this week off the tea you got some you got your cut making again you got your cut making decent performances golf was great relatively empty huge winds uh well I would have I would have been really bad then uh CU I
Am not I am not good in the wind uh when it gets windy AF uh call is somebody you fade absolutely Brenan still here you know he he’s a ball Striker so that makes a lot of sense why you know he’s having a lot of success in those two
Categories but I don’t see a whole lot here with with the off the tea uh if look at the irons however you couple top 15s top 10 top five your winner yeah Aaron Wise was you know middling to clunker for sure and even Cam Davis had
A miscut who hit his irons very very well but I mean again surrounded by close to top 20s top five top 15 runner up so really really like looking at irons this week around the green couple of very very high Mis Cuts they will it will have have a factor absolutely I
Mean Kevin kizner top five Russell Knox top 10 top 15 from Burger two years ago but I don’t see a whole lot here and then the putting cam Smith just putt the Daylights out but right under him you know gaining nine Strokes on the field and and a
Clunker cuz not hitting the iron is all that great so uh again just to focus on the irons we’ll look at we’ll probably look at all four of these although I am least concerned with off the just because I I I’m pretty sure I know
Where I want to go with that in the driving and uh greens page view so moving over to this week’s field if we look at off the tea our top off the tea players in the field this week in the 2024 season Rory Keith Mitchell Scotty sheffler Xander Ben on
Cameron young sewu Kim Chris Kirk Cory Connors and Vincent Norman looking at approach this is where I’m going to put a whole lot of stock this week so don’t be surprised if these players rise considerably in the mixed condition Model come Wednesday night our top Strokes gain approach players Tom
Hogi Scotty sheffler Tony fenale Cory Connors Andrew Novak Shane Lowry Jake knap Lucas Glover Carson young and Matthew Pavone we will look at some around the green Absol absolutely um these greens are hard to hit uh false fronts protected by water and bunkers everywhere uh so around the green is
Going to play a little bit of a factor our top Strokes gained around the green players in the field this week uh in the 2024 season Hadi sh Kim Scotty sheffler Novak M Hughes J day Aaron badley Ben Griffin Jordan spe and MAV mcney of course skipping Jorge Campo uh he is out
Of the field or an alternate uh not entirely sure so let me go ahead and star the players that are alternates this week um all right and then give me a moment as I uh look for the courses that have poet trivialis overseed come on uh harbort toown
Host of the RBC Heritage inisbrook uh the valpar championship host of the vpar Quail Hollow um the Wells Fargo Championship Quail Hollow I think it’s this top one uh Stadium Course American Express TPC San Antonio host of the Valero Texas open which is the week before the Masters Of Course TPC sass
Where we are this week and lastly TPC Scottsdale the host of the waste management so our top Putters on poet trivialis overseed greens uh in the past two years our top Putters have been Sam Burns Matt coocher Taylor Montgomery Brenan Todd Justin Sam Ryder Chad Ry Ben Griffin Billy
Horel and Troy Merritt those was your top 10 in terms of putting on uh poet trivialis overseed uh important to note you know right under them 11th Brian Harmon who has not missed a cut here Paton gazy who is an alternate but if he gets in the field
He’s top 20 has not missed a cut in the four years that the players has been in March not May the others of course Justin Thomas um pretty far down here 91st we got Tom hogi 147th although he has he has put fine at the Players um specifically but really
Really bad on the surface in general and then lastly is McCarthy who is just a premier p putter uh but surprisingly just inside the top 25 but anyway uh just showing you why I don’t think putting is a is a big deal at all this week considering you know
The players that are that have performed the best since moving to uh since the players moved to March and their putting uh performance hasn’t really been all that great and it hasn’t stopped them from performing well here so so take that for for what you will with that we’re going
To move or get this prepared for the fairways and greens uh and let’s take a look at the fairways and greens for the past couple of years now last night I was pretty adamant about the good drives gained although I do I do want to see about this Fairways gain number uh
Looking at distance just not a factor um you know Scotty generally has a lot of distance and Cam Davis has a lot of distance Min Le moves it but you know most of these players are are you know right around field average or or negative because there are uh
Places at sass where you just have to um play conservative off the tea U whether that’s playing with three-wood or you know trying to to finesse a driver somewhere uh distance just isn’t you’re not gaining a whole lot with the distance you see a few players negative
And Fairways gained a lot of players are pretty solid in this good drives gained so if we sort um again the Fairway finders are generally you’re going to be your cut makers now Scotty was a little bit further down your winner um some Elite performances but you know not a whole
Lot of correlation cuz your top Fairway finders were you know pretty clunker of made Cuts you look at good drives gained much more correlating top 20 top 10 yeah Duncan sure was a clunker but top 10 top 10 winner pretty high up here top 15 even so I’m I’m really liking this good
Drives gained uh metric uh for this week greens Scotty Leed so you definitely want to take note of that uh anytime the winner of a of the tournament leads in a category definitely want to make note but again some some solid correlation other than you know maybe Woodland
Duncan will Gordon a little bit further down but fairly solid correlation in the greens but you quickly get into you know five and a half and 4 and a half and those are pretty smaller or those are smaller numbers for greens so interesting I think but I’m more
So uh leaning into this good drives gain even though cam Smith um seemingly didn’t hit a fairway at all in 2022 again remember this is the the crazy weather uh couple days that they had in Sawgrass excuse me at Sawgrass in P Pont VRA Beach um yeah I mean again some good numbers
Here in the good drives gained Fairways again some cut making you even have a miscut from Martin Lair that’s pretty high up here in the fairways you got your cut making generally but nothing in terms of um Elite correlation you know a couple top 10 top 10 in nothing great whereas little bit
Little bit more correlating in the good drives gained I think here top 10 top 10 runner up a miscut again from Martin lard couple more top 10 a little bit further down surrounded by top 15 couple top 25s not as correlating as 2023 interesting other than let’s see what we got here
Other than Aaron Wise who was pretty poor several of your top 10 up here in terms of greens but again you you get into the five and a halfs and and four and a halfs pretty darn quickly um let’s take a look at 2021 just cuz 2022 was so it didn’t didn’t
Seem like it gravitated towards anything there 2021 uh your JT wins there’s your top 16 again slightly under um field average in terms of uh good drives but a lot of decent numbers in here greens was pretty good yeah again the fairways I see this is a little surprising to me I would
Have really thought that Fairways would be something but it looks like it’s more in these good Drive good drives gained um several top 10 decent performance there greens fairly solid so if we look at this week’s field for the Players Championship trying to think if I want to put any filters on on
Um this page view my first thought is actually to go to Pete Dy because he is such a uh he really challenges you uh in terms of course layout where you have to play towards trouble if you want a good shot at the green and and whatnot that’s
Kind of where I’m looking for now or where my thought process is looking at some of the the metrics in in this page view so on Pete Dy designs in the past couple of years our top good drives gained players are Victor hin Lucas Glover Hayden Buckley chz reevy Aaron Ry Shane Lowry
Brian Harmon Zack Blair Dylan woo and Tom Kim um I don’t know if there’s enough rounds to make it statistically significant uh cuz there’s you know in the teens Brian Harmon has played several um several Pete die designs but not a whole lot in terms of
Rounds uh just because I have the Pete D filter selected let’s go ahead and take a look at greens as well and then I’ll take it off and and look at a more holistic view but your top greens gained players on Pete die designs Victor havin Scott
Colin Mo Kaa chz reevy Aaron Ry Shane Lowry Keegan Tony fenale Hayden Buckley and Tyler Duncan are your top 10 in terms of greens gained on Pete die designs uh let’s remove that we’ll we’ll look at just this 2024 season and your top good drives gained players in the 2024 season see
Wo Aaron Ry Billy horel Scotty Sheffer Cory Connors Rory Andrew putam Grio noren and Ben Silverman are your top 10 there greens much the same although at the bottom half it it varies sheffler Cory Connor Keith Mitchell Patrick Rogers Xander Billy horel seu Kim Tony fenale Aaron Ry and Bo Hustler are your
Top 10 in Greens gained this 2024 season so far all right I don’t think we’re going to do much with scrambling maybe sand saves although sand saves isn’t something I generally look at I I depend on Gabe for that if he if he feels like uh sand saves really
Pay or play up at a course uh and then I usually just kind of uh steal that from him so I I’ll I’ll reach out to him tomorrow in regards to how he feels about saying saves and whatnot uh but let’s get this ready for the scoring and
We saw last night that uh it looked like the bogey avoidance was the uh ultimate scoring metric we would want to look at I know the double bogy avoidance was a fairly big number but again just not a whole lot to be gained there only with
1.9s and then you see all these these players you know missed the cut so eh not feeling the the double bogey avoidance so instead looking at the top 18 from last year couple players negative in bogey avoidance but they’re slightly negative versus the birdies gained uh bazen ho uh didn’t seem to
Gain a lot of birdies he just avoided a lot of the bogeys if we sort again if you’re making birdies you’re going to run on the leaderboard so very solid there but you do have kazy who was really really good at the bird’s gain but really really bad at the bogey
Avoidance okay 35 6 19 36 bogey avoidance now your winner LED in bogey avoidance but not nearly as correlating as you can see I mean you got a 60th 35th 27th okay but the numbers appear to be fairly similar you got an8 and A2 in the
Birdies 6 and A2 in the bogeys but you got you know four and A2 and three and a half down here whereas the bogey avoidance okay so the the higher numbers are still in the birdies gained okay 2022 birdies and Bogies yeah I mean pretty similar the bird’s gained
You’ve got more players positive the further you go down in the top 20 yeah twos here Bird’s gained winner Leed and Bird’s gained 22nd 13th 13th but damn solid correlation that’s for sure bogey avoidance solid but you got 26 and a 33rd and you’re winning is not up here
So it looks like both of the past couple years it’s been the birdies Gain No Eagles I mean there are eagles to be had on the par FES honor Bond leiri had a few but Eagles generally don’t happen all that often at Saw Grass uh I’ll take a quick look at last
Year’s birdies are better gained Xander had a few it looks like but it doesn’t really look like it contributes a whole lot something that we could look at which I generally skip over but taking the look at actual birdies are are better actual uh you know you got 25 up here
But see you got you got several players you know that are in the 20s down further that aren’t as high as the players that seemingly are just avoiding the Bogies so this is why I still think bogey avoidance is carrying the weight um because bar pars are
Generally good scores here at Saw Grass other than your your par fivs and uh we can just put extra weight in the par fives so I don’t know interesting um yeah in the 2024 season your top birdies are better game players are there on Sheffer Lowry Pavone r sh
Kim Michael Kim joerger tagala and Harry Hall bogey avoidance Silverman gim Xander Scotty will Wills alores badley Burns Hadley Pavone and Novak so star Pavone and Sheffer they’re the only two that are top 10 in both sheffer’s top five in both birdies or birdies and better gained and bogey avoidance but really
What I’m thinking because proximity seemed to play a a decent Factor at least what we saw last night let’s take a look at opportunities gain this might be where where I go this week and I’ll take a look at this in a couple of different ways your top opportunities gained
Players in the 2024 season Tom hogi Keith Mitchell Tony fenale been on Scotty sheffler Jake knap Harry Hall Aaron Ry Chris Kirk and Sammy valaki are your top 10 in terms of opportunities gained in this calendar or yeah this calendar season if we remove that let’s take a look at Pete Dy opportunities
Gained your top opportunities gained players on Pete die designs past couple of years Justin Thomas one of the players that has been perfect at Saw Grass the past four years Keegan Colin moraba Patrick Hanley Rory chz reevy Scotty cam young Tyler Duncan and Luke list all right there’s hogi a little bit
Further down here who’s still who’s perfect kazy perfect when I say perfect four for four in in making the cuts here at the Players since it moved to March so interesting I kind of like the opportunities gain this week where I where I where I think I’m leaning all right moving into proximity
I am quite interested in this considering total procs looked like it was something it didn’t look like there was a specific range that really stood out last night in Microsoft Excel not a not a whole lot stands out here you got several players that are negative in each of these ranges
Except for maybe the 100 to 125 that seems fairly solid but there’s some pretty big negatives in here total procs might might be something yeah I mean that’s that’s pretty decent correlation 6 third 19th 19th another top 20 runner up third your winner a little bit further down here
But at the very least you’ve got some cut making in here with your total procs okay we’ll go through each of these ranges as I just don’t have a strong feel on if any of them uh matter a whole lot I you got some great performances and some miscuts okay couple of high
Miscuts 125 to 150 Mis Cuts up there a lot this is really strong at the top yeah other than Harrison indicot this is pretty strong here there 150 to 175 third 13th six 6th 2 19th 19th that’s fairly strong I would say okay maybe a little
Bit hey you’re cut making here you got cut making but nothing extraordinary in terms terms of correlation hey Tony good evening thanks for jumping in chat Ryan Harmon is popping up often yes uh he is one of five players who is four for four at making the cut uh since the players
Moved to march on the schedule um so I think I don’t know if he’s going to be undervalued or or you know under owned in DFS but Harmon is somebody I’m kind of um targeting for DFS I did not like his number when it came out today so
Anything wager wise I would do with Harmon would be in parlay or placement did not like his win number but he’s generally played pretty well here um so you’re not you’re not far off uh with that statement at all um at least last year it looked like it was the 150 to
175 if there was a range but really kind of I kind of like that total procs so we’ll look at two years ago cam Smith yeah look at I mean the total procs pretty darn solid you look at the top 12 there pretty darn solid um couple of
Higher miscuts but a third top 10 couple of top 10 your winner was a little bit higher as well just out of curiosity 150 to 175 a lot less correlating lot less correlating so I do like this total procs and that’s why I kind of like the opportunities gained because those two
Seemingly go a little go hand in hand a little bit um let’s get this set for the par 3es I suppose so your top proximity or total proximity players this calendar season the 2024 season top total procs players tom hogy boy he has popped a lot as well he’s the he’s two
He’s the second of the five Harmon hogy Justin Thomas Denny McCarthy and Pat Patton gazy are the five that are four for four uh in March player championships and making the cut hogi Keith Mitchells popped a lot as well Justin low fenale kittama Sheffer CZ Eric Cole Andrew
Novak and Austin Acro are your top 10 in terms of total procs this calendar season okay all righty um par 3s not sure they’re going to carry a whole lot we saw that they kind of lagged for your top 10 your top fives and your winners especially for
Your winners they really started to fall behind um pretty normal um distribution here and then for your winners the par fours really take off and leave the par 3es behind so not sure how much we’re going to put uh attention into this but always good to
Look uh they were played you know fairly solid by your top 18 last year no particular range stands out which makes a lot of sense because they’re pretty evenly split among the ranges uh here at saw grass cut making will Gordon played them well but you see it didn’t particularly help him
Your winner was nowhere up here you know at at the top so not seeing a whole lot there now cam Smith played them extremely well he dominated the 17th um two years ago seemingly but again your winner in the par 3s or I say the winner you’re leader
In part three performance was a very very middling finish more correlating in 2022 in terms of total par 3s but I don’t see a particular range that matters the most so our top par three performers in the field this week this calendar season horel Tom hogi again Grayson Sig Wills Alor Denny
McCarthy Chan Kim Rory Pavone bone ecro and Grio moving to the par fours this is this is where some things will start to make some sense and I was a little surprised I did a little bit of digging um earlier today there really isn’t a range of par
Fors even though half of them fall between 450 and 5 if we actually go and look uh at the XL data here in a moment or once we go and look at the XL data here in a moment there doesn’t appear to be um a leader in terms of which
Range and that kind of plays itself out here you’ve got a few players negative in all of these inste it’s just kind of the par fors and general just play them well Hadi slightly less than field average hogi was essentially field average you look at the different ranges a 5.8 lead
There and he was a top 10 5.3 top 20 in the winter 450 to 5 was a 6 and 1/2 so doesn’t appear to be any particular range of par 4 that matters the most they just need to be played pretty well um collectively maybe I mean and look here
I was going to say the 400 to 450 that’s the that’s the range that has the least it only has two of the 10 instead I mean get 5ifth 6th 13th 13th yeah middling from JT first second nth pretty strong there so top power four performers Scotty Ben on Shane
Lowry Matthew Pavone CZ Ben Silverman Xander Peter Milady Andrew putam and Justin Thomas and then lastly par fives are going to be a pretty big factor but again I don’t know if there was a particular range that mattered the most you just got to play them well Scotty five almost six
Hogi almost six hii almost seven fifth 19th 1st third sixth kind of falls off after that but I mean your Elite performers at the power fives really Skyrocket on the leaderboard um let’s see two from 500 550 and then one that is 558 so you could you could conceivably
Say maybe the 500 to 550 and that seems to play out here a little bit not overwhelming but a little bit maybe yeah cuz I mean you got some miscuts pretty high up here but I still think it’s just the par fives in general since they’re pretty well um evenly
Distributed second 13 13th fourth couple of high Mis Cuts sure but it’s just kind of par fives so our top par five performers Doug gim and minwu Lee lead the way in the par fives Nick Dunlap Tony fenale Eric Van royan Sheffer Mitchell Burns zotor and Hustler round out your top 10
All right been going for a little while we got plenty to cover in moft XL so let’s go ahead and get to that first I like to look at last year’s mix dish models see how it performed uh what I looked at and um areas that we think we can improve
So looking at last year’s mixed condition model uh one two three four and five so five Miss Cuts in my top 20 sure that’s fine um kind of sucks that the top two were mised cuts for me but um it is kind of you know overall was
Fine chef was only 19th in my rankings probably due to the very very high course value uh he had he had haded miscut and a 55th Place finish and then comes and wins so nothing screamed that uh he was a horse for course per
Se um Rose was good you know uh sub 5% or right at 5% I imagine he was a little bit higher than that but top 10 10 from Justin Rose was a good solid suggestion um let’s see others here Xander I can’t believe he was only n and a half he was
Probably a little bit more popular than that but still a top 20 morawa was probably a little bit more popular as well Rory missed the cut Connor and Bradley so pretty middling um pretty middling of course my number one player was actually John ROM but since he with
Drew uh I removed him since he would have thrown off some of the averages but what did I look at last year uh 15% Strokes G approach makes a lot of sense if anything I’m going to be increasing that percentage uh for for this year’s model 15% power fours okay uh maybe a
Little bit heavy I did have 10% off the te I think that’s a little bit too heavy uh I’m definitely going to back that off a little bit um maybe to the 5% might might have a a filter um if the wind picks up or or or
Something but 10% feels a little bit too heavy in off the te I did have 10% birdies are better gain on Pete die courses so you can see the emphasis I put on Pete die designs good drives gain and greens both of them which we looked at tonight this exact same metric and
Filter combination I did look at those so we’ll see if those were uh any good uh predictability wise 10% in par fives uh maybe a little light I could I could see the argument to go to 15% 5% opportunities gained on Pete die designs 5% scrambling long
Rough makes sense cuz they do keep the the rough long here 5% 200 plus procs I don’t like that one um it just didn’t seem to play out all that well last year and and when we look at the predictability it wasn’t very good then
5% par 3es makes a lot of sense these are clearly the least important holes here uh at Saw Grass so how good were these in terms of predictability the approach was pretty pretty solid um with so many players 142 um you know we’re looking at we’re trying to get under 50 so approach
Pretty pretty solid par fours were pretty pretty good they were okay off the tea a little bit less so birdies are better gain now remember these are all with Pete D the Pete D filter so um good drives gained little worrisome maybe maybe the good drives gained isn’t um
Isn’t the metric to use for the Pete die design maybe it is and last year was bad just a kind of an outlier or a bad um just a bad year for it but it wasn’t very good uh predictability wise green and birdies birdies are better was okay
Greens a little bit less par FS were were okay again we’re trying to get under 50 but you know this was the third best performing metric so definitely want par fives in here opportunities gain wasn’t very good scrambling was horrendous that’s why I don’t think I’m going to do anything with
Scrambling 200 plus was wrong 68 is really bad and then 56 for the par 3s they’re only going to carry 5% so yeah um definitely need to add some around the green so we’re definitely going to be adding that this year uh little bit too heavy on the off
The te I I did like the idea of the good drivers gain on Pete die designs but you know that that was a pretty poor um pretty poor in predictability so maybe that’s not the way to go with it but the best performing uh or best predictability
Metric was in the approach and that’s why am going to have even more weight than 15% in it this year so all right let’s uh let’s close that out we’re going to look at Saw Grass uh in a very very deep dive into the data um this really comes in with
The part of Threes fours and fives but we’ll take a look at all of it in terms of Strokes gained yeah it says the off the te is um quite a bit higher than the around the green I want you to take a notice of this pretty big outlier here
So if we were to remove that um yeah it is a little bit more than the around the green but I don’t know I just I’m just not a big believer in off the tea here uh I’m more so thinking it’s the fairways or the good drives gained cuz
Once you remove this year uh things will change quite a bit iron PL a huge factor I mean look the 20 or n the 2019 uh Players Championship was the lowest in the irons and it’s dominating most of these metrics so definitely going to have a lot of weight in the
Irons around the green uh pretty hit and miss I’m going to have probably 5% in it I do think around the green is going to play a factor this year putting has really dropped off last year now when cam Smith played or Cam Smith won excuse me two
Years ago is a pretty big factor I don’t know I’ll you know I’ll have 5% in it but I’ve got other things that I really want to focus on this year distance again it’s just not a big deal I’m looking more so in terms of good drives gained and greens these greens numbers
Are decently big but it’s it’s been slowly losing year over-year so I don’t like that Trend good drives gained okay surprising to see Fairways just a NE a Flatout negative in 2021 it’s probably what’s bringing that um down so much when compared to other courses I still like
This good drives gained I think it was right up right on par with with uh the arold Palmer and that’s what we looked at at the Arnold Palmer so I think it’s right to look at that maybe not a full 10% maybe change the filter but I think it’s good drives gain
Looking at scoring again I thought about the bogey avoidance but look look at the bird’s gained it’s just and it’s been gaining steam every single year so probably looking at Bird’s gained probably looking at Bird’s game maybe maybe birdies are better since there are a few Eagles I do like the
Opportunities as well I do like opportunities gain boogy avoidance just hasn’t been a big thing here the last three years this is where we’re going to gain a whole lot of insight on Saw Grass looking at the specific ranges of part threes fours and fives surprisingly the
17th playing all of 147 yards is The Strokes gained leader in par 3es you can kind of think about it in a uh you know it kind of makes sense just because of of uh the end of the tournament or the end of the round you know all you know obviously the the
Island green all the water so if you’re able to avoid a big number there but I don’t like putting a lot of emphasis on one hole it’s pretty evenly split throughout the par 3s and you’re looking at and I’m doing some very very rough rounding here you’re only looking about
A third of your Strokes gain of par 3s in that one hole so um whatever whatever we look at in terms of par 3s is going to be total par 3s there’s not going to be a whole lot of it as I was mentioning with par fours look how even
These are as well you’re just going to have to play them pretty solidly just throughout um now last year the 4450 was the lowest by a decent margin but you know that was a outlier year 450 to 500 have been the most consistent so if if you’re looking for
The consistency maybe you look at the 450 to 500 but really uh you know these are about 30% maybe up to a third in terms of the total in Strokes gain Par Four so again we’re looking at total par fours and then par five you know a little bit more than a half
More so like 60% in the 500 to 550 again two of the four par FS measured here on the scorecard and then this one measures to 558 so you could easily see that falling under 550 a day or two but looking at this number compared to the par 3s it’s not close 1
191 versus a 13 something so definitely going to have a whole lot in the par FS um if you’re going to look at a range at the 500 550 but I’m kind of kind of preferring just total par fivs I think where I looked at
The 200 plus and the reason I looked at the 200 plus like two of the three years have been very solid and even last year was pretty solid in the 200 plus but it just didn’t lead to a lot of upper end leaderboard success it’s just really
Kind of total procs look at the past two years and the total procs number so that’s why I’m I’m I’m thinking total procs or even opportunities gained but there’s a look at some specific Saw Grass data looking at where The Strokes gained fall in the various metrics at Saw Grass
Particularly the par 3’s fours and fives which I really like to look at let’s round the show off um with the early look file and I’ll show you a little bit of the research that uh that I posted to social media and of course um if you want to
See all of it or see the players that fit that criteria go check out what I posted earlier over on social media I think on X um specifically but to round the show off let’s look at the other look file and look at the players who specifically at
Sawgrass who have performed the best at these various metrics that we think are going to play the most prominent uh let’s start with the approach uh iron plays just going to be a major factor this week um Eric Van royan that’s a video game number 11 and a half in his
One year here at the Players uh you don’t expect him to gain 11 and a half but he is in pretty darn good form so something to think about it is only one time Victor has been great with the irons SEIU Kim has been great with the
Irons There’s Tom hogi again Keegan Max hom has been fantastic with the irons pretty good success dei’s had some good success Nick Taylor’s been very good with the irons but a little bit less in terms of U overall success morawa Lowry there’s JT look at Rory Rory’s been really bad
On the greens here really really bad on the greens here zorus is three for three um Coo’s been good with the irons but horendous pretty much everywhere else Damon’s been okay spe he’s only two for four here interesting so there’s a look at irons going skip around the green just
Because we’re getting close on time I will look at putting if you want to look at specific Saw Grass putting because we saw Tom hogi was really bad on um poet trivialis but he’s actually been okay here when I say okay he’s been right at field average 0.1 I know it’s
Not great but better than the 147th ranking would would um insinuate Ry video game numbers you don’t expect that same with Taylor Montgomery and minwu Lee in fact I know he’s an alternate but if he somehow find his way into the field Pat gazay is four for four in
Making the cut and he’s putt well here McCarthy much the same four for four Brian Harmon much the same four for four so your cut making is with the putter I think your top end performers are with your irons uh see other players who have putt well and had decent amounts of succcess
Keith Mitchell decent amount of success I suppose uh but you see there’s not a whole lot of elite performances if a player has played it multiple times with a putting that’s not what it’s about here at sass it just isn’t Brian Harmon’s probably your best average finish of 30th I mean that’s solid
Yes but you look at Todd good putting average 60th chessen Hadley average finish of 70th Simpson average finish of 80th it’s just not about the putter here it’s really about the irons um I’m going to look at good drives gain You could argue to look at greens but I’m being a
Little bit stubborn I really do think the good drives gained is the metric I want to focus on so your top good drives gained players again all of these are just one time Victor hin there’s Wills Alat torus that gim a little bit less in terms of success but good with the good
Drives gained Cory Connors Rose some pretty good pretty darn good success there’s Harmon Ricky a little bit less mama two two for three um going to skip the no yeah man no I’ll go to the birdies gained I thought about skipping it but we’re going to skip the
Par 3es because they don’t matter so we can take a look at birdies real quick Pat Gaz gosh dang it pat Gaz again if he gets in in the field sewo Fleetwood Victor Keegan I know he missed the cut last year but generally been pretty good here at sass
Hideki Keith Mitchell again there’s Justin Rose hadwin okay looking at par fours and Par fives and then I want to show you all a little bit of the research so par fours Justin Rose again Max hom there’s JT been taking care taking advantage of the par fours and the par fivs as we’ll
See here in a minute Keegan again Victor Holland Harmon Scotty Jay day fenale much less in terms of success but been taking care of the par fours Fitzpatrick straa Todd lastly par fivs this is where th this in the approach is probably going to be a heavy heavy portion of the
Mixed condition model this week sunj There’s Tom hogy these players have been your best at sass the past four editions I would say four years but remember 2020 was cancelled so this goes back to 2019 uh Hideki JT okay look I mean Tom hogy JT Brian
Harmon these guys are the three of the five that have played every sing single March Players Championship and they’ve made the cut at every single one of them yes you do have several players that are you know like three for three sure but three of the
Five that have that are 100 or you know the best at um I can’t say the best what’s the wording I’m trying to look at the most consistent they are four for four they’ve made every single cut in the March Players Championship they’re performing at the
Par fives and that’s why it’s going to be probably the second biggest part of the mixed condition model I still think strok skin approach is going to be the biggest but you just got to play the par four or the par FS well here there they are your
Scoring opportunities we’re going to end the show off with some research let me sort this oh gosh dang it uh I want sorted on average finish smallest largest and you know uh number of events and best average finish but let’s take a look at some of
The research that I posted today over on X we’re going to start with again the the winter Matrix um a players performance leading up to their wins Scotty little bit of an outlier miscut 55th and then wins but I want you to notice every every single winner even going back to
2012 top 20 within a year top 20 within a couple years top 20 within 3 Years everybody except Scotty has had a top 25 within three years of their win 11 of the 12 had a previous top 25 at Players within the past three years 11 of the 12 come to Saw
Grass off of a top 35 finish no matter what event it was most of them come in off of top 25 cam Smith was a 33rd at the Genesis but Scotty was fourth at the API top 15 from JT at WGC Mexico Rory coming in off a top top 10
At the API recent form is a big deal as well not only at Saw Grass but in general so those were two big factors 11 of your 12 had a previous top 25 at the Players within three years 11 of the 12 are coming off at top 35 the
Last time they played 10 of them a top 25 and you see 11 of the 12 gained Strokes gained an approach and you really could probably argue 12 of 12 we just don’t get Master’s data cuz it’s proprietary but every single winner every single Champion going back to
2012 gained in Strokes gained approach the last time they you know the previous tournament before the players and they gained a lot one and a half here is the lowest the lowest you got some Gody num here in approach so that’s why I think recent form over course history I think that’s
I mean it’s it’s where I’m leaning I don’t want you don’t want to ignore course history I think it it’s going to matter a little bit but with all of the water in play I mean from the gcsaa tournament fact sheet all 18 holes have water in play I would argue there’s
Really about 14 or 15 but still with all the water in play it really does become volatile in terms of uh predictability year over-year so that’s why I’m really going with recent form and that’s why I started tonight and I’m probably doing so moving forward but especially tonight
For this week of the players while we’re only looking at the 2024 season not going back a full 36 rounds or 12 months we’re just looking at the 2024 season because the last thing I’ll share with you all you’ll notice that this you you know this little dotted line is the cut
Off of when um the players move to March I want you to notice something with the Champions and how well they have played leading into the PLAYERS Championship look at Scotty had nothing outside of top 15 nothing outside a top 15 leading to his win you look at
Cameron Smith he had two wins missed the cut at the Sony and a and a you know a middling at the Genesis but he had two wins or a win at least JT 15th 13th 3rd had several top 15s several Rory sixth second fourth fifth fourth huge amounts of recent form coming into
The Players Championship the year they won huge amounts every single one had at least one top five at least one Scotty had bajillions Rory had bajillions of top fives but everybody had at least one top five in that calendar year leading into the players that’s why I’m going to be
Focused a lot on recent form and that’s why we only looked at the 2024 season when we went through uh fantasy National tonight that’s going to be it for the show really appreciate p and Tony for jumping in chat thanks to everybody else out there who Tunes in watches listens
Supports the channel by liking the videos commenting and subscribing it helps me a lot out by you all doing that um love what I do taking an in-depth look at sports statistics um giving you a statistician and data analysts view of what he sees trying to help us all win a little bit
Of money in the process hasn’t been great the past couple of weeks we’re going to try to turn it around this week for the major DFS contests that are out there for The Players Championship so thanks to you two for jumping into chat um reminder that um to look at all of
The research that I posted uh today over on social media over on X and uh to see the players that fit the criteria that’s in the field this week that’s posted over at over on X um and then Wednesday night of course the DFS tactics show uh
Starting at 9:00 p.m. for all of the Wagers you’ve made so far this week for the players championship for all the Wagers you’re thinking about making this week for The Players Championship and until I see you Wednesday night for the DFS tactics show may all your bets be profitable
