Action Network contributor and golf betting expert Tony Sartori joins Golf Digest’s Andy Lack to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Players Championship on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Introduction
00:30 – bet365 Promo
01:27 – Xander Schauffele
05:10 – Hideki Matsuyama
06:18 – Justin Thomas
08:24 – Sam Burns
09:33 – Brian Harman
10:56 – Erik van Rooyen
11:40 – Si Woo Kim
12:54 – Rickie Fowler
14:15 – Corey Conners
15:46 – Tom Hoge
16:55 – Aaron Rai
17:50 – Tommy Fleetwood
18:54 – Keith Mitchell
20:25 – Brendon Todd
21:11 – Doug Ghim
22:26 – Grayson Murray
23:21 – Adam Scott
25:07 – bet365 Promo
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#AuthorTonySartori #BlueWireVideo
Welcome to links and locks action networks golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host Andy lack and I will be joined alongside action golf contributor Tony Sartor for these Best Bets episode and just like Jason and Ben have done the last couple of years Tony
And I will play 18 holes today giving our 18 favorite picks for this week’s Tour event the players championship before we dive into this week’s episode a reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than
With anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost
Check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary up at 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 800 Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply okay
Tony we are on the first T here for our players championship Best Bets get us started absolutely I mean I love handicapping this tournament because like the GOL profile has pretty much been the same here for a decade you just got to be in great form playing like one
Of the top guys had prior experience and and is a good ball Striker that recipe has pretty much given us every winner here over the past 10 15 years and that’s going to bring me to my first outright outright choice this week which is Xander Schley he’s at 22 to one and
This is a guy like he’s I hate betting on him so much because so frustrating so bet on to way he’ll finish top five and it’ll look like all week oh he’s going to P out and then he just falls short but this guy he’s made the weekend in 27
Consecutive tournaments Scotty Sheffer is the only golfer right now that has a longer streak of doing so than him I I mean especially with the way havin and Rory have been playing recently I think there’s no doubt in my mind that shley has played as the number two guy on tour
Just he just hasn’t gotten a win over the past two uh seasons and I think that’s going to change soon and it could be here he’s finished runner up here before I mean 22 to1 is a good price and I mentioned earlier that he had made the
Weekend 27 straight times he has 14 top 10 finishes over those 27 tournaments he’s right there every single week and I think his game is able to get uh be elevated against this very good strong field but I don’t think he should be as long as 22 to one especially again with
The way havin and Rory have been playing I think he’s the second best guy in this field so that’s my first outright choice isander shley I gotta say I’m really surprised um that you went there because he was my pick too and I I I thought that I was
Probably going to take some flak for going there because of his inability to close in these bigger time events but there just feels like there’s something in the air with Xander right now um his career feels very synonymous to me with like what Ricky was doing in the
2010s um where Ricky gets the players wins and continues to tease in major championships like Ricky had that one year where he finished top five and major champ in every single major championship Xander’s done a lot of that as well where he’s been this proverbial bridesmaid and players in in major
Championships but he’s never able to cross the finish line in a major but then there’s something serendipitous and synonymous with like not being able to get it done in the majors but then getting a Players Championship as your consolation prize um so long-winded way of saying like I think this is Xander
Week too he’s he’s my pick um we have a a ton of ways to get to get different so we’ll talk about a bunch of other guys but that was that was the number one play that I was going to talk about this week as well that I I went with the
Enhanced win 24 to1 because at this point I’m not I’m not cashing out anymore so bet 365 is available for Xander as high as as high as 24 to1 a number I just I just had to bite on it because I’m so used to seeing this guy
At like 14 16 18 to one um I don’t think I’ve gotten the opportunity to bet Xander in the mid 20s in the low to mid 20s and in quite some time so so I’m with you I think Xander’s our guy this week yeah for sure I’m glad we’re on the
Same page and I’m glad you all said the 22 to 24 to1 thing because I don’t think since Champ Major Championship season last year he’s ever been north of 20 to1 I was actually very shocked to see that number this week so and again I think it’s because of like the betting
Community people like you and me like we’re so hesitant to bet on him just because he’s never he’s just not finishing but like you said I think it’s coming um but that brings me to my second outright winner and this guy has won recently and this is um Hideki maama
30 to one at bet 365 like shawley’s just in tremendous form he’s reached the week he’s reached the weekend in all seven tournaments he has played this season including his win at the Genesis Invitational he’s just also someone that’s had a good deal of success at TPC
Saw Grass he finished fifth here last year eth in 2019 and seventh in 2016 having those three top 10 finishes here is so I think going to be so crucial this week because it like the course will play tough and I think having that experience under spell especially in
Such a loaded field will definitely work to his Advantage I mean this is a guy who like I feel like he’s never really gotten may maybe has maybe he hasn’t but I feel like he’s maybe not gotten the respect he deserved um ever since his
Win at the Masters he was just a Masters champion three years ago and like you’ll see tournament where he’s still like 50 to1 45 to1 55 to1 little shorter this week because of the recent form and the win at the Genesis but I still think 30
To1 is too long and a guy who has played very well here and is playing really good golf right now love that um I am going to go with one more outright this is the man that I am pairing with Xander uh on my betting card and hoping that he can become the
Sixth uh multiple Time Players Championship winner in in the tournament’s history I’m going to go with Justin Thomas 20 to1 enhanced on bet 365 uh JT has approached this 2024 season with the totally new Vigor he’s had um a pretty strong transformation uh in terms of where his game was at just a
Couple months ago versus how he’s playing right now uh he’s got I believe four top 12 in five starts this year he just is coming off a 12th at the API where he gained Strokes in all four major categories yes the ball striking his back but he’s also chipping and
Putting better this year and now he returns to TPC sass which is a golf course that I think just brings out the best in him um I think it’s kind JT kind of views that golf course as his playground you have to be creative there
If we get a bunch of wind I think JT has a major Edge if we don’t get a bunch of wind we’ve seen JT being able to perform in easier than average conditions at the Players Championship as well he’s hitting his irons right uh well right
Now he’s playing some of the best golf we’ve seen him play in years and it’s put up a shut up time like this is a guy that hasn’t won a golf tournament in two years um and I still many others still view him as one of the best players in
The world at least one of the best players on the PGA tour but after a certain point it’s time to find the winner circle I think JT feels it um I think he knows its time and what better than a play where he has such good vibes
A golf course he’s talked about so warmly and lovingly in the past for him for him to get off the schneid so I’m going with JT 20 to1 enhanced on bet 365 yeah I love that I’ve been I’ve been circling JT to win a tournament here for
The past few weeks now I think one is coming he’s playing so much better than that little like rut he went into last summer but he’s been playing a really good brand of golf um I’m going to take us to the finishing positions market and I’m going to Target Sam Burns top five
Plus eight 50 at bet 365 just another guy who’s in tremendous form and when Burns is when his game is off it’s not very good but when his game is on he is one of the best players on tour he’s made the weekend in 11 consecutive tournaments um over that stretch he
Finished third at the Phoenix Open in February I could see a similarly strong performance this week at TPC Saw Grass his iron game has really came together recently he’s gained true Strokes on the approach in each of this past four tournaments and he knows the course like
The reason this number is so long like plus 85 or plus 850 to make get into the top five is cuz Burns has never really seen that success at the Players yet but he’s only played here I believe two maybe three times um he’s improved um as
He’s played here um he’s made the cut in each of his past two appearances here and I mean if you he’s got the experience under his belt he’s got the improving iron play week over week that’s four straight tournaments true Strokes gained on the approach I think
Just at plus 850 that’s such a large number on such a a golfer with such a high ceiling that’s we taking a shot at Sam Burns in the top five Market love that I’m going to go to the top 10 Market with Brian Harmon at plus 450 to
Finish in the top 10 I love the way that he played last week at the API he gained over five Strokes on approach uh one of the strongest indicators for Success at TPC Saw Grass is just looking at the guys that are hitting their irons the
Best right now like if you look at the leaderboard from last year Sheffer hogi Hatton Hideki all of those guys were in the top 10 in approach leading into their players win the year that JT won in 2022 he gained 9.5 Strokes on approach right before he won so there’s
This massive correlation between guys that are hitting their irons right now and those who have been able to find success in winning the Players I love that Harmon spiked with his irons last week at the API um I trust him on big stages uh he’s played well at this
Tournament in the past he’s very accurate off the te he’s shown what he can do with his driving accuracy off the te on a golf course like Royal Liverpool where there’s all these pot bunkers and Hazards and Out of Bounds at every turn uh so I’m going with Brian Harmon plus
450 to finish top 10 this week I like that a lot yeah especially I mean you know he’s going to have the putter so if that approach game is on he’s he’s going to be flirting with the top of the leaderboard for sure I’m also going to
Target the top 10 market and I’m going to go after Eric vanroy in top 10 is 10 to one so big number here but this is honestly besides shle is my favorite bet on the board this week I mean he’s now finished inside the top eight in two of
His past three tournaments and his irons are absolutely on fire he’s gained true Strokes on the approach in each of his past seven tournaments he’s he also finished top 13 or tied for 13th here in 2022 and Van royan right now is playing way better at this stage than he was
Entering that uh round in 2022 so I mean 10 to one I mean I think that’s worth a shot for him to uh finished out the top 10 for the third time over his past uh four tournaments love that one uh evr’s been playing some incredible golf I’m going
To stick in the top 10 market and go with SEIU Kim plus 450 another former Players Championship winner um similar to Brian Harmon we got a spike approach Borman from sewu Kim last week at the API he hit his irons incredibly well I think this is a perfect course fit for
Seu he is one of the most accurate drivers on the PGA tour he keeps the ball in play He Is towards the top of the field in driving accuracy every single week and I think what set SEI wo apart is that he’s not just accurate he doesn’t have the ability he doesn’t just
Have the ability to spike with his sirons he’s also got a really good short game too and so I think he’s got kind of all the tools uh to have a lot of success at this golf course that emphasizes accuracy off the tea overall approach play and short game skill uh
For the next number of years I think that TBC SASS and sewu Kim is going to be a strong marriage I just think this is a an incredible Golf Course for him and I think he has a leg up here every single time that he tees it up because
Of his highly specific skill set so I’m gonna go with sew Kim top 10 plus 450 I love it and I’m gonna go so speaking of former winners I’m going to go Ricky Fowler top 20 plus 450 I I’m viewing this almost as a b yes
He’s won here before but I’m bu I’m using this as a buy low spot because the results have not been there recently and the reason I really want to buy low is cuz like he’s not really scoring but he’s really not been playing that poorly like if you’re watching him play his
Whole game is kind of there he’s just not scoring and I think now we can get kind of a bounceback week when he’s returning to a place where he has the biggest win of his professional career TBC so TBC sass is a Pete die design that features Bermuda grass greens and
Fowler loves playing on that setup recently so when you look at um courses are similar to this on tour right there are three other courses uh or two other courses on tour that are Pete die designs with mut grass scens and that is uh Harbor toown which hosts RBC Heritage
And Austin Country Club which hosted the now defunct Del technology Championship add in the players and last year for those three tournaments F finished inside the top 20 in all three of them so I think he’s comfortable on this type of design he’s comfortable with the Bermuda grass greens he’s won here
Before I think comfortability is going to be something that’s be huge for a guy who has been making Cuts but not really scoring so if he just gets comfortable plays his game I think he can easily sneak into the top 20 which is plus 450 at at
365 uh I’m going to go into the I’m gonna go top 20 as well here and the reason that I’m not going to go a little bit more adventurous with him is only because I don’t trust the short game and putting that much but I’m going to go
With Cory Connor’s plus 240 top 20 I just think on the driving accuracy and the overall approach play alone Connors should find his way to at least the middle or the top of the leaderboard he is playing uh he is hitting his irons better than nearly any other player in
This field outside of like Sheffer and Tom hogi right now like Cory Connor gained over five on Approach at the cognizant he gained over six on approach last week at the API and like I’ve talked about like I’ve you know waxed poetically already about on this podcast
I just think that recent approach for is such a safe bet in terms of targeting guys a little bit farther down the board and Connors has gained over 11 Strokes on his on approach in his last two starts he’s got some good history at the Players as well he um he’s finished
Seventh here on the in the past he’s had a lot of success on these like overseeded Bermuda greens um the same type of Bermuda overseed that you see in Phoenix that you see at Heritage uh that you see at the Valar all golf courses that Connors has puted well at in the
Past so uh I’m going to go with Cory Connor top 20 plus 240 love it yeah those irons have been absolutely dialed in but we’ve already mentioned them a couple times speaking of dialed in irons and I’m going to take us to the first round leader market and I’m going to go
After Tom hogi we’ve mentioned him multiple times he’s 66 to1 lead after the first round this is a guy who holds the course record for lowest round at TBC Saw Grass when last year he went 10 under 62 in the third round when he was kind of chasing down sheffler I mean
Obviously he did not get it done on Sunday but that just proved that he can explode here um in any like single round which is why I love him to lead after the first at 66 to one that honestly like could be the end of my handicap
Right there but we’ve been talking about iron play hogi rakes above Sheffer and strokes gained on the approach this season which is truly like almost mindboggling when you look at how good um sheffer’s ball striking numbers have been but that’s how good hogies have been as have been as well so and finally
The tea times are already out for Thursday Hog’s like the third guy or in the third group out there so he’s got the advantage of being in the morning wave which almost always scores better than the afternoon wave so at 66 to1 and a guy who holds the course record with a
62 here I I like hogi to lead after the first round uh I am going to stay in the first round later Market uh as you just mentioned and I’m going to go with Aaron Ry 80 to1 for first round leader uh Ry is one of the most
Accurate drivers of the ball on the PGA Tour TPC sass has one of the highest penalties on tour for a missed Fairway I simply trust ry’s ability to keep the ball in play off the te better than nearly any other golfer in this field he
Has a 19th Place finish at TPC sass last year in his only appearance he’s playing some great golf right now he just gained over six Strokes on approach in Mexico I don’t know if I really trust him to put four rounds together but if we’re talking who has the ability at a very
Appetizing number to spike for one round based on his skill set I would go in the direction of Aaron Ry 80 to1 on bet 365 I love it I’ll stick in the first round leader Market as well and I’m gonna go after Tommy Fleetwood I cannot
This number is 66 to one for Fleetwood to leave after the first round I I feel like like I don’t know if the Mark is just kind of forgetting how good Tommy Fleetwood is yes he struggles to win but that’s why I’m going after the first
Round leader market for him he tees off immediately after hogi in the group right behind him except like on the front versus the back but whatever he’s in the morning so that bodess well there’s also a guy that profiles well for here he’s typically demonstrated success at die design courses that
Feature Bermuda grass greens he has multiple top 10 finishes here um whe whether it’s including here Harbor toown or the Austin Country Club and I mean I think his recent inconsist inconsistencies with his irons are why we’re catching 66 to one but when they’re on they’re on like it’s Tommy
Flew would is I think well owgr it’s his own question mark but according to their rankings which are questionable he is 12th like this is this is still a top 25 golfer in the world for sure and at 66 to1 I think that’s just a misprice on
Someone who has a high ceiling when his iron play is on nice I’m gonna go with uh I’m gonna go back to the finishing position Market I think there’s some really great odds on some top 40 plays this week uh I was very surprised to catch this guy
At plus money in the top 40 Market based on the way he’s playing but I’m going to go with Keith Mitchell top 40 plus 125 uh I just love the way that Mitchell is playing right now uh he finished Ninth at the cognizant classic uh gained
A bunch off the tea gained a bunch on approach prior uh to the cognizant classic he spiked on approach as well at uh in Mexico so one of Mitchell’s biggest bugaboos over the last couple of years one of the things that have held him back has been his approach play and
Mitchell’s I don’t know what he figured out with his irons in 2024 but this is some of the best approach play that we’ve ever seen out of Mitchell um I trust him off the te he’s had a lot of success on these type of overseed greens um and he’s finally kind of unlocked
That approach play that I think has always been the missing piece to his game uh so I just think just for a guy to finish in the top 40 I mean there’s so many outs in his game for him to find a way to finish in the top four like he
Could Spike with his driver he could Spike with his putter like even if the irons regress a little bit I just think that Keith Mitchell at plus money just to finish in the top 40 that shocked me this week so I will absolutely be there on Keith Mitchell my uh handicap for
This Market is almost the exact same so I’m also on Brendan Todd top 40 which is plus 130 it’s like like your Mitchell play I can’t believe this is plus money he just finished six at the Arnold Palmer and yes the field is half but
Like the field is still all the top guys at the arold Palmer right so he’s facing the same level of competition yes there’s more guys to jump to get into the top 40 he finished six last week his putter was on fire that tournament was also on Bermuda grass greens so if his
Putters if he’s feeling well on Bermuda grass greens I can see that putter being a huge benefit for him again this week I mean he’s finished inside the top 40 in eight of his past 10 tournaments I really could not believe this is plus money for Brandon Todd especially with
How he looked last week at the Arnold Palmer so I think at plus 130 that’s just that’s just an auto play for me uh I’m gonna do one more in the top 40 market and I’m gonna go with Doug gim plus 162 another number that shocked me
I mean we are talking about a guy that is playing some of the best golf on the entire PGA tour right now like Doug gim has finished top 20 in four starts in a row he’s hitting his irons incredibly well he’s driving the ball really well
He’s had a lot of success on Pete die courses he’s also finished um I think two of his best three finishes on the PGA tour have come at the Players Championship so he played well here in the past he’s got a six Place finisher in the past and he’s also played well at
The West Coast kind of companion to the uh to TPC sass in PGA West uh which was also designed by Pete D kind of in the same vein as sass to be this West Coast version of sass I know it plays a little bit easier but the architecture is very
Similar the Agronomy is very similar so to get Doug gim based on the way that he’s playing right now uh at plus 162 in the top 40 Market when the GU finished top 20 four starts in a row that felt a little aggressive to me I was shocked at
That number so one of my favorite players in the board this week Doug gim top 40 plus 162 on bet 365 I love that that’s a great number I’m going to for my final finishing positions play I’m going to go after Grayson Murray top 30
Which is plus 550 so a little bit of a longer shot here but again I just talked about the Arnold Palmer Murray just finished 25th there and again I know it’s a lesser field but he’s facing the top 80 guys in the world at that field
Just like he is going to be this week as well the only guy that is here this week that wasn’t last week in terms of the top guys is fow if he can finish 25th at the arold Palmer I think he can scrap together a 30 a top 30 here as well if
His play remains um the same I mean he’s kind of a boomer bus right missed the cut by like five Strokes I won’t even be shocked but he had two top 10 finishes to close out last season um we we’ve seen him win he just went out the Sony
Open I just think that yeah he’s not a world beater by any means but I think he’s definitely talented enough to sneak into that top 30 especially at plus 550 so I think that’s worth a shot for my final play uh I’m going to finish this off
Here uh with the market we don’t talk about too much typically but think this is a fun way to start the tournament I’m going to go with a round one three re ball hopefully something that can cash for us on Thursday if our more adventurous first round leaders don’t
Come through but I’m going to go with Adam Scott plus 250 he is the long shot in that three ball over Patrick Klay and ludvig oar um Adam Scott obviously has been one of the most consistent players at the Players Championship over the last two decades I mean this is a golf
Course where it is very hard to consistently perform here year after year because of the variance because of the water Adam Scotts made 17 of 20 Cuts here he’s playing some good golf I think you’re getting a little bit of a better price than you would on him at this golf
Course because he missed the cut at the API I am not overly concerned with that that is a golf course where again there’s a lot of variance you hit one or two bad shots in the water at Bay Hill and your week is over I think it’s a
Great bounce back spot for Scott at a course that he’s had a lot of success at in the past I have some concerns about kl’s irons right now um and I don’t love playing guys at the players that have never seen the golf course before so as
Much as I love ludvig’s Talent this is a very nuanced strategic golf course it generally takes at least once or twice to figure it out so I’m going to go with Adam Scott plus 250 round one in that three ball with Klay and lvic nice I love that play
Uh that’ll do it that was our last one uh that’ll do it for our Best Bets episode of the players championship before we get out of here final reminder that the linkx and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost
With them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the
Incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1-800 Gambler or 1-800 bets off in Iowa terms
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Carolina offers all in one place just check out the link in this episode description as a reminder our action experts Spencer agar and Nick Brett wish return with host Roberto Arguello tomorrow for The Players Championship betting preview right here on the links and locks podcast so for Tony Sartor I’m
Your host Sandy laak and we will be back here next week on the ls and LU podcast presented by bet 365 live
1 Comment
Xander record is very poor at the players