Bet Scottie Scheffler to WIN Arnold Palmer Invitational? Golf Picks & PGA Tour Props | Links & Locks

Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Spencer Aguiar and Nick Bretwisch join Roberto Arguello to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

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00:00 – Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets
06:46 – Course Preview
12:16 – Outright Bets
26:27 – Other Picks
38:38 – bet365 Promo
39:52 – One and Done
44:21 – Puerto Rico Open Bets
47:27 – Rapid Fire Picks

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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #BlueWireVideo

Hello you beautiful degenerates and welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 this is your Arnold Palmer Invitational Tournament betting preview we’re going to have our Best Bets right now then we’ll get into our course preview get into outrights rest of the

Card talk a little one and done Nick extends his lead in one and done this week then we’re going to go briefly talk about the Puerto Rico open if the guys have any plays there then we’ll go through our rapid fire and call it a day but this is the AR Palmer Invitational

Second of three player run invitationals on the PGA tour first one was a Genesis run by Tiger Woods this week we are at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando Florida Spencer you hit on your best bet last week with chessen Hadley over Matt coocher pretty easily what is your best

Bet this week so Roberto I’m going to give two matchups on the show this week I I I’ll save the second one for later I think both had very similar returns kind of get this high-end numbers on the two players that I’m fading that end up getting drowned out with these really

Wildly volatile profiles um I didn’t necessarily see much of a difference just want to preface that before I get into the play but I’m goingon to say Jake knap minus 115 over JT Poston okay so Jake knp newest rising star on the PGA tour over JT Poston Nick

What is your best bet for the AR Arnold Palmer Invitational g go back to the placement Market despite the debacle of the bear trap and Carson young last week I go Adam hadwin top 20 where taies paid in full at plus 180 all right Adam hadwin the desert fox

Plus 180 is Nick’s best betat I’m gonna go with a fade of Harris English I’ve got Justin Thomas minus 120 over Harris English before we get into that best bet Spencer break down why you really like Jake knap over JT Poston yeah like I think when you look

Specifically here for Poston and you know I’m going to call this a virtual no cut event like it’s going to be difficult to not get in all four rounds here we have just seen poston’s game though crumble during the past few events he’s lost Strokes with his irons

In three of four off the T and two a four uh the form at the event isn’t going to necessarily help either for a golfer who gone miscut miscut and 68 in three career attempts my model did find some positives kind of what I talked

About the beginning of the show I I did think he should have been better than those results where he’s posted here historically but it’s not as if that we still have this hot stretch of run from him that we were getting earlier in the year where we can maybe Overlook some of

The recent floor outputs there was only one golfer for me who graded as a larger overrated commodity on the board that would be Brian Harmon haven’t necessarily seen a matchup with Haron yet where I want to take him on we’ll see if more books end up entering there

But uh for me there just really wasn’t the name where I had a bigger mispricing on one end and then the same General mispricing on the other end with Jake knap where my model thought he was much better to where he was at you know we

Can talk about this a little bit more I told you both this before the show started like I’ve been having this sort of a war with data golf this week where there there seems to have been these wild shifts that are occurring from the market I’m pushing the number one way

Data golf’s numbers end up pushing it the other I think if you can be patient with any of these numbers it will probably end up moving back because it has continuously throughout the week each time that we’ve gotten these movements but uh I did think Jake knap

Minus 115 over Poston was one of the better values you could find on the board I really like that bet I think nap is a dude who’s a way longer than Poston well I don’t think that I know that and JT Poston has had the best approach play

Of his career over the last few months but maybe he’s regressing back to the mean right now and it seems like a perfect chance to fade JT Poston on a course where he can’t really put the lights out and use that plat stick as a weapon as much as you’ve got to really

Ball strike your way around Bay Hill this week Nick why are you so bullish on the man from moja Canada this week uh 30 point difference in my pricing in comparison to the market I would have this price where ties are paid in full right around plus 125 Plus 130 also just

Love to see the elevated event success that hadwin has brought to the table this year he’s got a T4 at the Genesis a top or t39 at AT&T and obviously that weather was kind of obscene so I don’t really you know I’ve thrown away that tournament pretty much for all of my

Data a T6 at the American Express and a top 15 at the sentury he is hitting the ball as long as he has in the past four years so again this is a course that a lot of you know everybody out there is going to talk about distance and a

Little combination of accuracy he is not going to miss many Fairways and I do think the added distance to the driver helps him a ton but overall it’s a price grab and just love to see the uh recent success here in these elevated events great for me to putter grades overall like

24th in my way to TD green scoring so again obviously that’s not inside the top 20 where I’m betting him but to get plus 180 where ties are paid in full I’ll pick that 10 times out of 10 I like it well Spencer you were

Fading a j I’m going to back in JT more because I want to fade Harris English here English comes in off of his best finish of the Season seventh at the Genesis Invitational where he gained over stroke per round putting last year he gained 1.98 Strokes per round putting

Here at the API when he finished at TI for second that is his recipe for Success he’s a great putter on any surface but also on Bermuda of course George bulldog very comfortable down there in the South but his approach play is inconsistent it’s decent but I think this week the

Past history is going a little bit too far for me he’s very putter Reliant if his putter doesn’t show up in a big way he’s not going to be in the top 20 this week I think Justin Thomas has a few different ways to get into the top 20

His course history isn’t as great so I think we’re also getting a little bit of a discount on JT after his miscut at the Genesis as well so I like the Buy Low sell High aspect of this matchup on two golfers that I think are just in

Different tiers think JT is a lot better golfer overall than Harris English so I’m going to fade Harris English by buying JT at minus 120 on this matchup guys we mentioned a few different aspects of Bay Hill but let’s get into our course preview Spencer I’ll let you

Have the first crack at it yeah I think beay Hill’s a very awkward course it’s been known to present a unique dispersion of scoring throughout different iterations of the contests over the year like you don’t have to look any further than the last four years of running this uh you’ve got an

Approach around the green off the tea totals they’ve each taken their turns holding most of the preceden for Success we have talked on this show in the past about how that answer sometimes convolutes the handicapping process uh when we can’t refine our data to a more specific area of the board I don’t

Necessarily want to make that sound more complicated than it needs to be because there are still returns that are simple to build when you dive into let’s just say how someone has performed historically on long and challenging courses uh the thick rough that’s going to be here when you miss the Fairway

Fast Bermuda greens all those things come into play but the fact that you can excel in any of those main Tea Green elements and still get a solid outcome did tell me a story that this is an allaround course that’s going to demand at least a few key ingredients to to

Work your way up the leaderboard I noticed that almost all your scoring has to come on the four par fives and three shorter par fours specifically two of those par fours uh those par fivs deliver between a 39% to 56 6% birdie or better percentage the only other two

Holes that yield a birdie rate over 17.5% would be those two shorter par for locations that I just talked about I think it’s also worth noting that you need to control your ball out of the rough it can be nearly impossible when you miss the Fairway because of this

Dense nature of the grass most approaches will lack the Apex and spin needed to hold the fiery greens that’s going to add to the 6% increase at the field experiences from 200 plus yards versus a standard track um for me I I kind of found it most essential to just

Pinpoint golfers who can combine that total driving I ran a category here to look into that I I was talking to both of you guys off air to where when I built a total driving category this week I never think just adding driving accuracy is the way to go like I want to

Find specific course comp fits of courses that are going to have water that come into play horses that are going to have this thick rough and kind of recalculate my model and recalibrate it in that capacity there are certain golfers I think a Cameron young is one

Of those Prime examples there to where uh his totals off the te and some of those ball striking metrics really end up propelling up the board there’s probably a reason why he’s experienced some movement in the market just because it is a nice course fit for him there’s

Other golfers who take the negative route there with it but um you know it’s an interesting tournament just because you have the water that’s going to come into play I keep calling this in a essentially a no-cut tournament I do think it’s difficult to miss the weekend

Here so I when that is the case no bet is really ever safe until you get into the clubhouse on Sunday probably lower some of the projected win Equity returns in the matchup markets uh I have had the feeling and we’ve talked about this on the show quite a bit the placement bets

Are are very challenging like the value has been just completely taken away in almost any of those sectors there so uh I don’t have any placement bets for that reason I did think some of the head-to-head bets were intriguing it’s a very interesting outright card just just

Because of the way that this course sets up and the skill set that is needed to find success but uh it kind of just comes down to a total driving can you find the Fairway can you have distance be long and straight for me there and then the proximity from outside of 200

Yards since you get an increase from that range I like it I also factored in the 200 yards and and more I did a little bit more on 150 to 200 as well uh got to be strong with the short irons when you have opportunities off the team

I also um just wanted guys who are strong all around I think that’s going to be something pretty common that in my Approach for major championships and some of these Signature Events at really tough golf courses and so I want guys who can win in different ways maybe if

They need to scrap and Claw shoot even par one day when they’re not they don’t have their best and then go low the next couple days I think that’s going to be a recipe for Success so I’ve got guys who I think don’t have any big weaknesses in

Their bag Nick any other thoughts on how you approached this week at beill no not really I think the way that you both summarized it just well-rounded golfers I did wait scrambling just a little bit higher for those that do miss the green you still need to get up and down but

Like Spencer said the scoring is going be done on these short par fours and these par fives we need guys that could hit it off the te long and relatively straight and I think it’ll be a really really fun tournament and hopefully a single digit underpar winner for this

Season’s debut of a tough elevated event yeah three of the last four here at Bay Hill have been in single digits including last year Kurt kyama at minus n was your winner he’s also in the field this week of course and he’s in the field this week three out of the last

Four tournaments here have been decided at single- digits underpar I think it’s really wind correlated and it looks like there might be some wind 20 miles an hour I thought a lot of people last week at PJ National cogon classic that’s on the it’s a coastal course if there’s win

It’s going to play hard if there’s no wind it’s going to play soft and if there’s rain and no wind on a Monday finish it’s going to play extremely soft so I think people complaining about the setup it’s just win related um but moving on to this week we’ve got our

Outright card ready Spencer you’re on the te first so I’ve talked about this on the show quite a bit recently and I kind of continue to be under this belief that while we are getting a lot of you know let’s just say 100 to one plus winners

During these contests I don’t know how outlandish most of those names have truly been when you dive into their profiles when you look into my model and you know I’ll include the random spot where my masth seem to hate Nick Taylor at the Phoenix Open uh there there are

Two definite outlier wins from Grayson Murray and Nick Dunlap that those are the the the two biggest things that I would say come into play but it’s still been this SL of top 25 projected win Equity golfers for me when I’ve run my math at the end of the day it it doesn’t

Doesn’t mean I’ve necessarily landed on all the correct names when picking an outright card we can’t choose everyone when we do that but I’m also not looking at these tournaments as ludicrous as the results maybe have looked of this coming out of left field now I think here’s the

Question and this is the biggest thing to talk about is we haven’t necessarily gotten that Elite name to capture a title I think that’s a fair point that anybody that wants to talk about that maybe some of that is the merger of this combination of each easier scoring you

Talked about that last week when we look at the cognizant um you know maybe there’s something to be said also about just the removal of certain players from the field but when I look at beill this is a much different course than we’ve gotten in a lot of these different

Iterations of these winners so I talked about this during the course breakdown you have to be long and straight off the te you have to be able to excel from outside of 200 yards and I agree with you Roberto like I ran a separate portion of my model from 150 plus but

That’s also more of those major championships sort of pedigrees where there’s difficult scoring errant drives and approaches end up getting negatively impacted there I want these high-end golfers that can find success so for me there were four names that really popped in my model and and this is where it was

Like any of these four names it creates a much different output of a card depending on which way you go but Scotty sheffler Rory mroy Victor havin lud VI oberg those were the four names to where I was trying to figure out did I want to

Have a very topheavy card with Scotty or Rory and just leave it there or if I wanted to maybe go in route of hin and oberg together um I think it’s very close I wouldn’t necessarily talk anybody out of any of those routes there but I did decide to start my card with

Scotty shuffler at seven to one he broke my model in so many ways this week greated first for wayed T green first for strokes gain total on long rough Strokes gain total in the win you talked about that potential for the win to impact this a little bit later in the

Week this course is going to probably bake out and speed up there first for ball striking weighted proximity like it’s all the things that you want to find of a golfer that now all of a sudden we put him at a course where you know if he can be neutral with the

Putter I think this is the sort of tournament where he can win because of the harder scoring conditions this increased capacity for hitting a tons of greens and regulation and trying to salvage par in a lot of those areas he has the upside potential to score on any

Of those par fives or the shorter par fours um you know maybe you could make the argument that as a whole with an industry we’ve overplayed this Sheffer sub 10 to one game in the outright Market every week I mean he’s not necessarily winning at these prices but

I think the counterargument that I would like to make to that is you’re also not forced to bet him during every single one of those tournaments I think a seven to one price here is vastly different than out of course where putting becomes more of a staple for Success um you know

I’ll let Nick and I know what Nick’s play is so I’ll let Nick get into his outright I think that’s also another Savvy way that you can go about it but I I really want to be in some capacity with one of those four names on my card and then go from

There Nick who you got on your outright card I went with Rory for literally the same exact reasons that Spencer just said I I guess the only downside in Rory’s game currently I guess if if you’re looking at recent data with the approach game it’s it’s not where you

Want it to be but the course history here is fantastic it is one of the more predictable courses but yeah him and Scotty have damn near twice as much implied probability and my model to win this tournament then the next guy which would be for me number three is Xander

And Victor hin right behind him so it was tough I have three outrights I did break my rule of risking more than one unit in the outright so I do have 1.16 units in the outright Market 78 of that was going to Rory at 9 to1

I took Nikolai hoard at 100 to one I believe you could still get that number out there in the market but it looks like it’s diving a little bit to me that was more of just a number grab I like the upside there and obviously if I’m

Taking Rory maoy I need to find some long shots to kind of hedge that out and uh my other guy is lvic oberg I think as much as the market loves Victor hob Bland my numbers seem to think that leig is the same exact player if not a little

Better it do the recent form l or Victor’s iron play has not been the same since a BMW I don’t think that that’ll continue here I think this is a great week to play him but for the uh the discount in pricing I’ll take ludvig oberg and those are my three I’m

Probably uh we’ll get to one and done in a minute but I think it’s between leig or Rory this week for me um I do need an outright winner soon because my my lead’s not going to hold forever I like it we’ll get into the

Into one and done in a few Spencer you mentioned you weren’t opposed to going with Rory or with Rory or Sheffer at the top or going with oberg and havin Nick went with Rory you went with sheffler I’m going with havin so I like Victor hin

For all those reasons I think that he’s only got like 10 measured rounds on tour this season uh if not 10 somewhere plus or minus two in there because he’s played in three events I can actually just worked this out on the air right now Sentry he had four Genesis he had

Four Pebble Beach proam he had two because there were only three rounds and one of them was at spy glass so he’s got 10 measured rounds this year I’m not afraid of the quote unquote recent form just because it’s a super small sample size I’m gonna do a slight buying of the

Dip I think he should be closer to 11 12 to one in this field and I think that this week get pays a premium to guys who are very straight off the te which Sheffer Sheffer and mroy obviously fit the build but I think havin does too if you look

At jain’s recent form on this golf course tied for second in 2022 tied for 10th last year really strong very accurate uh very long as usual and it looked like well so I’ll backtrack he played at Pebble Beach finished nearly dead last in that field took the week off after

That uh when he was scheduled to go to the Phoenix open because he wanted to work through some of his trouble instead of instead of going and playing through it so we worked with this coach played a lot better the next week on approach very significant increase in approach

Play where he lost over a stroke per round at PB beach only two rounds again and then gained uh three quarters of a stroke on Approach at Genesis I think this week he can get that approach play going again long iron play is really his bread

And brother which is why I love him in the majors uh should have got hopped on him in early August last year to get a better price for these majors didn’t do that so I like that I can get a price at 15 to1 in less competitive of a field as

A major championship and I really like hland as a guy who unlike sheffler I believe in his putter I think that that gives him some upside I like his putter better than Rory’s I although Rory is a good putter above average pretty much most years and I think that havin just

Can make more of those 15 20 Footers I’m more confident with him in that range I think he’s going to have a lot more opportunities here at Bay Hill and for that reason I’m in on havin moving on I got Max hom I think he’s a very

Consistent player I think he’s a cheaper version of ludig I think ludig is Elite off the te and can really light it up with the putter as well the iron play I like a lot I don’t think it’s quite at the havin level but I think that for the

Price Max Homa at 30 to1 fits into my card has that upside and I get a little bit of buy the dip on his prices relative to where they have been recently I also went with Matthew Pavone at 90 to1 Pavone is someone who I’m super

Bullish on because he can win a variety of ways like these other guys he’s second I believe in Strokes gain putting this season yeah getting over a stroke per round which hey maybe he’s the Harris English of this week where he can light it up with the Putter and be just

Solid everywhere else he’s also second in Strokes gained approach so far this season uh in a lot bigger sample size than a lot of the other guys in the field because he’s been playing some of the other events so I think Pavone has a fighting chance here I think if he can

Get him at over 101 to win some Majors this year I think he’s a good fit at pretty much any of them uh considering that he’s been a DP World Tour guy I think maybe the open might be the best fit uh the master probably the least

Because he’s not that long and can’t take advantage of the big fat Fairways there relatively but I really like pavon and then I’ve got Stephen joerger as my final guy on the card got him at 100 to one I think that last week was a chance

To last week his 22 consecutive made cut streak was snapped I’m going to buy the dip a little bit on him this week at of course it’s completely different where we talked about in our one anddone conversation last week I was considering using joerger he’s quote unquote consistent because of those made Cuts

Course he missed the cut that week I didn’t use him I ended up going with Eric Cole which I’m glad I used a relatively bad golfer in one andone standards because he’s not a top 30 golfer in the world um anyways Jagger can take advant of that distance that he

Has this week I think that yes his approach numbers don’t look great this season from over 200 yards but last year they were really solid in a much larger sample size so I’ll take a chance that joerger pops this week because he’s also had some success at the bigger tracks

This year did really well at Tory pin so I think there’s some commonalities there and I think that’s why a Hoy guard is a smart play this week uh and of course Oar played really well there so those guys all make a lot of sense LC list

Just missed my card he popped in the Genesis invitation but I still reserve the right to add him again this week because it’s 100 one you can’t make a terrible bet at a guy at 100 one in my book there’s a couple things I want to

Add to that so let me start with hlin first and it this is a very similar argument that I gave for him at the Genesis for why I backed him during that tournament and I understand the 19th Place finish there isn’t exactly him providing a result that that makes

Anybody excited and and I get that the results this year in general are not exactly what you would want to but we’re still talking about a golfer a tournament leading 22 consecutive rounds or shooting part or better he’s made 29 consecutive Cuts th like this is an overblown situation in my opinion yeah

The metrics don’t look quite as great over the last little bit but this is not a golfer that’s imploding himself off the map any single time he’s putting himself on the course like I think the game is much closer than the public perception is so anytime you get hland

At one of these courses where you have thick rough that’s where his numbers Skyrocket like he is a great total driver of the ball but then when you also can add this potential for him to be able to kind of lap the field in a lot of areas when it comes to Strokes

Gained when given thick rough when you do have to be put in that spot specifically with the longer irons he’s a very intriguing name um I saw that number drift very like in the middle of the day on Monday until like more of the 16 to one range there and uh it would

Have been interesting if that was the number that I initially got if maybe this would have been a sort of an output that I would have put together so I like the havam play he’s one of those four names for me that makes a lot of sense

And then with joerger I agree with you Roberto I think this is a very nice buyback spot for him he skyrockets in my model for projected weighted T to Green for this course I think that a lot of people in a lot of different capacities

Are not going to want to be on him just because of what we’ve seen I will say I successfully at least I’ll call it successfully because I didn’t get a Mis cut out of it I successfully bluffed Stephen jger last week didn’t end up taking him took Russell Henley watch

That go to hell over the last uh you know handful of holes there on Sunday so didn’t earn very much money Nick extended his lead we’ll have to try to figure out a way to make money back here but uh this is a nice spot for joerger

Like for me there are a handful of guys that if you’re trying to find the golfer who’s going to be 80 90 100 to one that can win this contest I think joerger hoard these are the names for me that kind of made the most sense that they

Have that upside potential to where if they put the pieces together they can compete I will say that list and hoard are the first two guys in that order that I have not put on my card that I probably will um this weekend so I really like those two guys because of

Their upside and also they can get hot with the putter too I wanted to mention that joerger I Pro my risk profile is a little bit more out there than most people so I’m cool with putting a couple hundred to ones on the card uh I’ve got

93 units on my card so far so I do have a little bit more room if I do 100 to one on one guy that’ll get me right at one unit but I do think joerger is somebody whom I am looking to back in a matchup because I think he has a high

Floor and a potentially high ceiling as well and I think it’s a nice spot to buy the dip I haven’t seen a matchup available on him against anybody yet so I’m gonna keep my uh eyes on that throughout the week until Thursday but let’s get into our rest of the cards

Spencer I’ll let you go first I’m not sure that any of us have very much in this in this market right now I have one more matchup I have nothing else outside of that I took will zalatoris uh you can find that currently minus 108 over minw

Le uh it kind of goes back to what I was talking about at the beginning of the show there has been some wild movement on this play over the past 24 hours so when I released it on Monday this line catapulted up to minus 135 there are

Other sites out there that push this number back down and more into this range of minus 108 now but I can’t help but look at this Min Le profile and not see one of the strangest returns I’ve ever gotten for a golfer you’re going to get that upside it’s very prevalent in

Certain capacities of the market he ranks second in my model for both projected par five scoring and proximity outside of 200 yards that’s going to be the Intriguing answer for a tournament that’s going to likely give him four days to Excel on the more accessible scoring holes at the track but then

There’s also this downside that r ramped up in most of the other areas he’s lost an average of 4.5 Strokes off the te during his two previous starts at beill I’m never going to be one that over evaluates or or overe extrapolates those numbers since it’s such a small sample

Size however the more significant issue came from the projection in my sheet that did believe that those returns were somewhat to be expected he ranked 54th in this field for anticipated total driving for this course like I talked about how cam young saw an upside side

Increase for this sort of a venue minw Le would be the opposite of that answer where he saw the negative drift didn’t like him at courses with water and play it didn’t project them well on tracks with thick rough there were just so many bottom end answers that did go with a

Good profile that pushed him into this range for me that if I’m trying to find a match up here and I mean there there’s a small sample of like miscut Equity like it’s not impossible that mwo doesn’t go out and implode on Thursday or Friday and and I I think that’s a

Potential that where he just ends up missing the cut even still and we can just not have to worry about what is going to come into play on Sunday to where you know there there’s a chance that Min wo can surge the leaderboard while out of contention on Sunday and

Zalatoris while in morea contention finds the water a couple times and you see this matchup flip and that’s why while this matchup had more of an advantage for me I still picked the the nap over Poston matchup just because Poston didn’t have quite the high-end

Upside that I got in my Mo model for from minwoo but thought this was a really good spot to fade minwoo uh a lot of people are on him this week there’s a lot of steam in the market in different portions just because of where he’s been

Priced in some areas and then if we look here specifically like his outright number seems to be a much better player than some of what these matchups are but I I don’t know I think this is an interesting spot to fed him because of those driving numbers he has I’m telling

You on both those matchups I really like that each player you’re fading in those matchups I feel like has a significantly lower floor than the guy you’re backing and I think that like just like you said Poston doesn’t have that upside Mimi does have some upside but hey Z tourus does too I

Think his swing while it doesn’t he doesn’t have the same ball speed that he had quite last year it’s still above the tour average I think the swing is in my very amateur swing analysis section here of the podcast I think it looks really consistent it looks very it looks more

Repeatable there are fewer um fewer things have to go right for him to swing consistently and so I like that for Z Torres we just saw him pop up at the one hard course he’s played so far this season so going to another one he doesn’t have as many Yips with the

Putter he does hit it off the toe a little bit but hey he’s got a mallet now it looks a little it it works so give me zot Tores in the in the first inod play I guess second because I’m tailing the Poston fade as well so I’m in on those

Nick who you got in your matchup SL placement bets I haven’t punched a ticket yet but the only one that I was technically having an edge on other than the post and play of just trailing Spencer because he’s been on fire with the matchups his whole damn golf betting

Career but what are you guys thoughts about Corey Connor over Russell Henley minus 114 aside absolutely hate the book that’s offering this we won’t get into details there and minus 114 asides highway robbery but I have Connor at minus 130 in this matchup the issue I

Have here though is if the course does dry out I think that’s advantage to Russell Henley because you can hit more fair ways he’s a better putter as rough as that sounds to say Russell Henley is a better putter than somebody he is a better putter than Cory Connor according

To my numbers and projections here but I still think that this is a good spot for Cory Connors just with the distance the accuracy the iron play as opposed to Russell Henley kind of struggling with that Avenue of his game in comparison to who he is as a golfer but I am worried

About the course drawing out and at playing the uh the no Cut quote unquote I guess hard cut of Russell Hunley there I I think if you look at Henley’s profile and we even saw it a little bit last week while he is not a good Putter

And and that is something we all know you put him on some of these quicker fast Bermuda surfaces he skyrockets and that was one of the reasons why I used him as my oneand done last week because I was hoping that if the ball striking ended up being what I was hoping was

Going to be and it never really quite reached that level that the putter could get hot in a spot like he’s 56 54 sorry overall inting 56 over his last 24 rounds he’s inside the top 15 for me when you put him on one of these

Quick Bermuda surfaces I I do tend to agree with you Nick that you are on the right side of the matchup just because I prefer Henley at one of these wedge fests than of course that you’re G to have to be you know both somewhat long

Off the te like I think length is going to help and then he’s aund or sorry he’s 55th for me from 150 plus yards proximity Connor’s better proximity numbers I guess I worry ever so slightly if this course does speed up what happens there for me this is a virtual

Coin flip where if there was no juice involved in the BET give me Corey Connor on that side otherwise it’s probably very close we’re staying away done inpod reverse play if that’s a thing I think that’s our first I don’t hate it uh I think spener laid it out very well T the

Green Cory Connor is the better player especially on this course I also want to add that that yes Henley’s putting numbers historically not good this last year he’s become an above average Putter and that’s even with four horrific putting weeks to start off the 2022 2023 PGA Tour season that wrapped around for

Like seemed like 10 years but it was like 16 months um Henley is coming off of a great putting week this past weekend he gained 1.85 Strokes putting per round which outside of the Windom in August last year is his best result in over a year so he actually lost Strokes

On approach last week has not gained over a stroke per round off the te in basically a year since the players last year so Cory Connors has a huge T green Advantage I like the bet I don’t hate it I think there’s a minimal Edge

But I do think there is an edge on it because of that ball spring prowess the problem is not that Henley is a better putter than Cory Connor it’s that Cory cter is a bad Putter and that’s frustrating he’s almost approaching luk list not he’s not approaching luk list

Territory that’s that’s an exaggeration but it’s consistently poor and I’m concerned on some of the tougher green complexes that that could be the undoing here um Saturday it looks like or sorry Sunday it looks like it’s going to rain also so that could provide a big Advantage for a player like list or

Sorry like Cory Connor and list uh where roll out isn’t a factor and that’ll accentuate the distance Advantage so I like I like the play I don’t love it as much as uh fading somebody like Min Le this week but I do think there is an edge especially coming off of Henley’s

Super strong putting performance this past weekend yeah and I also like just want to double down on that to where like I may not find Value at where the number is on it but I I think Nick where he laid it out he’s on the correct side

If you were to force me to take one side of the matchup I think the Conor’s route is the right way to go and if it’s softer conditions on Sunday uh like you just talked about Roberto I think there is more of a significant Edge that comes

Into play there for Connors to where uh maybe that ends up pushing it up a little bit higher up on the sheet so you know it’s just one of those things for me where it’s a stay away but um definitely like if you were to make me

Pick a side I think that’s the right side Connors and I think that even if it is firm conditions that will accentuate some of Connor’s advantages with the mid and long irons as well so I don’t think that it’s conditions dependent I could see advantages for Connor no matter what

The conditions are yeah the way I originally ran it was not with softer conditions it was for things to be speedier and it still liked Connor’s there it would probably help him a little bit more the other way but I agree like Henley’s proximity numbers

Leave so much to be desired this week we also mentioned how it’s going to be firm and fast this week we think last week at the cognizant first hour of rpj Tour live Main feed they had a rules official on who said that they have the greens a

Little bit slower because they wanted to not make it too grueling of a Florida swing where bbar is coming up players coming up and Bay Hills this next coming week now this week hopefully that means it’s gonna play really tough this week uh that’s what I would like and I think

All of our players that we’ bet on would benefit from pretty tough scoring positions uh guys I had one I I actually had two bets that I was considering we touched on some of these guys I had Cory Conor plus 220 for low Canadian I was intrigued by that I think that that

Might be another way to back Cory Connors and some of his upside against a few Canadians that I don’t think have that top top tier upside uh I know that you like hadwin Nick and I think that he is very consistent but I do think K

Connors has another gear that he can get to that hlin can’t um but after looking at some of those recent putting numbers maybe it’s better to just bet on Cory Connor for top 20 than to bet on him being the low Canadian um um I don’t

Know the putting kind of scaring me off of that one and then my other one that I was considering was Ben an minus 110 versus mimu Lee Ben on has been really really solid off the te here and on approach in his history at the Arnold Palmer Invitational he has

Lost Strokes putting all eight times that he’s been here including last year when he lost over three Strokes per round that’s like if you put me on the golf course almost uh you don’t see people lose three Strokes putting in PJ tour events uh outside of maybe Luke

List for like on a round by round basis maybe he just only had one round either withd Drew anyways we know Ben on has a new putter this year he’s actually above average putting uh the broomstick looks really good we already have the minu Lea fade

From will zot Taurus so I think that’s probably the way I’ll go about it I don’t I wouldn’t want to both of those but if you don’t have will zotus available and you only have the Ben on BET what do you guys think about that

One I think it’s the secondary way to go about it it’s kind of what I was talking about a couple weeks ago when I faded McKenzie Hughes like there are some matchups that are going to be better than others and I preferred the zalot Taurus route with it but I think if you

Only have been on available and that’s your second or your your only choice that you have I think that’s a realistic route to consider where there is value in that number speaking of McKenzie Hughes shout out to him for winning the seminal Pro member that a lot of players had to

Withdraw from because of the Monday finish at the cognizant classic um when are we going to get odds on the seminal Pro member that’s what I’m asking to sports books and speaking of sports books want to give a big shout out because as a reminder the links and

Locks podcast is proudly presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boo specific markets your wings and even

Parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at F 365 must be 21 or older and present in Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia

And 18 and old or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem called 1800 Gambler or- 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply sorry Nick I didn’t mean to cut you off there um saw the bet 365 jump and I took it any thoughts on Benny on over

Uh minw Le here I’m taking that one I’m with you I’m I’m taking the Ben on one anything to fade Mino and probably will do the same thing at DFS and that’ll either make or break your week based on ownership projections awesome I’ll I’ll I’ll add that one uh I’ll play that one

For half as much as zot Taurus I’ll probably play that one for around a half unit and this one uh because I really want a f bit here but moving on we have gotten through the rest of our cards let’s jump into one and done Nick you

You are in the lead uh want to say by about 500 Grand over everybody else let’s see I’m pulling it up um it’s in the fours it’s in the fours I believe you have a $421,000 lead over me and you are about 1,700 or sorry 1.7 million over third

Place uh Spencer is about 2 million behind Nick yeah yeah yeah Spencer what’s the weather like down there my guy it takes one Victory that’s right it does uh I need to I need to jump ahead I haven’t decided it’s I’m leaning Rory but if it’s not Roy it’s going to be

Love big I just worry about the do you guys have any concerns with him being a debut town here does it not matter to you I don’t know he he was good last year I think that’s actually Spencer we talked about him on BET better golf he

Did play this event last year I think he finished inside the top 30 didn’t he 24th yeah I’m probably going L big and I’ll save Rory for Augusta because Spencer and I love to get hurt again this is this is very this is very bad news for me right now although I

Mean I I guess I’ll just talk open and honest about where we’re at right now with the process so I would like to have gone Scotty sheffler and and there’s really no world where most people have used Scotty sheffler we so happen to start at the century and I use Scotty at

The century so I don’t have Scotty available I would love to use havland here which I think would be a secondary problem with Roberto how it sounds that I would probably not make up ground there uh but I don’t have havin available because I

Used him at the Genesis so I was in the spot where for me I think the the two most realistic options are probably either Rory or oberg I’m in the same exact spot as Nick with this maybe historically since I always play Rory at the Masters this should be the time

Where I should use Rory here don’t even give myself the chance to use him at the Masters don’t go down that route um but I kind of like oberg too I I think this is an amazing course fit for him so oberg last year was an amateur

But he there so there’s a Palmer award uh in college in Amateur Golf and so he was a recipient of that last year so there is another amateur in the field this week because of that I don’t think the guy’s gonna finish H for 24th this

Week but anyways I have used oberg so he’s out for me I think I used him too too small of a purse now uh that we’ve seen his trajectory because I got him at Farmers but I did get a six weer payout from him um this week I don’t know who

I’m going to use I’ve already put like four different guys in and swapped them out I had Rory in there I thought that Nick might use Rory now it’s sounding like he might not use Rory so my chances of using him have skyrocketed I’m also inted Rory I’m inted

Rory well this you have learned too much from me of like the art of bluffing on this show I’m I’m intrigued by havland I also just want to have one of these guys available for our last event the BMW Championship um I know Patrick kley does really well

There I kind of I’ve penciled in Klay or havland for the memorial and one of them I’ll probably use here and the other one I’ll probably save for Memorial or BMW I’m still figuring that out so I I think H could be a good way to get him

And be a little different this week he’s got good really strong course history and I think he fits the mold so H is in the mix Rory’s also in the mix but I believe this week the payout is more than the major championship so I want to

Use my top guys here and then try to go live guys at the majors I mean I think that’s a very natural way to try to play this in general so I mean it makes and specifically in like a contest that we’re in where there’s what 15 players

It’s like you don’t need to go recreating the wheel here of of strategy like that’s a very natural point to try to maneuver like that all right we’ve gotten through one and done fellas the Puerto Rico open is an opposite field event this week on the

PGA tour do you guys have any plays for that any outrides anything on that caught your eye I mean I will Chan Kim sorry to cut you off Spencer but that’s an easy one yeah if Roberto’s bet in Chan I’m betting TR Kim answer that I was gonna give so

Really well I haven’t built the model yet I’m going to release a model at at some point and we’ll run through some of these numbers but been pretty like Centric on the on the tournament that we have here at the API so uh we’ll see if

Anything pops up if it does I’ll I’ll be sure to post it onto Twitter and and I’ll get the model out there but uh no I mean there’s nothing for me right now in that in that market just looking through the outright odds board a couple guys

That I was intrigued by Parker Cy 45 to1 I don’t like the number but I am intrigued by CTI I think that Victor Perez at 45 to1 guy who’s got a lot of pedigree and who’s been around for a while strong sh last week overall he was

Either one stroke back or did hold the 36 hole lead at the cognizant he’s somebody who is just a really solid overall player I think at 45 to one he’s probably the next guy that I’ll add to my card I’m all also very intrigued by

Gigo at 50 to one he um he suffered a risk injury he’s had some risk problems recently or for years and he heard it again at the Zozo but he said last week that he was feeling a lot better got into the mix a little bit uh throughout

The weekend at the cognizant I think this is a course where he can show off that he is one of the more polished players in this field already a winner on the PGA tour he’s long he’s more accurate than he used to be he’s got a

Lab putter uh I think Garrick higo at 50 to1 also very intriguing for me um so I’ll probably end up adding him to the card actually yeah impot play Grio 50 to1 on our sponsor bet 365 I got chan Kim at open at 45 to1 that was the only

One uh that I actually had before the podcast today and then outside of those guys Aaron wias where’s he been he’s 65 to1 at the Puerto Rico open field no idea what he’s going to shoot kind he’s kind of the Anthony Kim of this week of no one knows what’s going

To happen where’s he been I’m intrigued by Aaron Wise gonna learn something from him this week no matter what used to love his game I know spenc will say the same too so yeah we’re we’re definitely in for for Aaron Wise getting back in form no

Doubt I also wanted to note we had this chat in our little group text Phil Mickelson spotted using a directed Force three he’s a lap guy so gonna have to bet him in some fashion at the Masters now I don’t know how I don’t know if

It’s gonna be out right top 20 what it’s going to be match up I’m gonna bet something on Phil at the Masters he’s gotta be close to even money just to make the cut I think at this day and age so maybe that’s your your move that’s the only tournament he

Really cares about um so I’m very excited for to see that um fellas we’ll do a couple quick rapid fire questions here uh looking at the bet 365 odds board if you had to place a wager on these guys in the 20s Colin morawa is 24

To1 Jordan speed’s 22 to1 I’ll give you a free ticket on these guys Nick who would you take Colin or Jordan Colin Spencer I I I mean I think it’s a nice spot for Jordan what we’ve seen historically for him at this venue I’m not out on him so I don’t give that

Answer as like this is a fade spot for spe I think it’s a nice tournament for call morawa with some of the intangibles that he brings to this course moving along to the 27 to1 range and I agree I would take Colin um H is 27 to1 Burn’s 27 to1 fleetwood’s

27 to1 which one of those three guys would you most like to have a ticket on Nick I know you guys really like H I’m worried about just the recent form I guess I there’s just never been upside anytime I’ve ever played this guy but give me Tommy Fleetwood I was going

To hope you threw cam young into that mix Spencer talked to me into him but I will go with Tommy Fleetwood I mean I’ll give the same answer I’m not necessarily in on hom as much as Roberto is this week um I think it’s a little bit of a boomer bus

Profile where I guess if we’re looking for upside a market like this would make a lot more sense where when you look at Fleetwood there has been a lack of positive upside at PGA Tour events to actually capture the title but really nice spot for him um like if it’s going

To happen it feels like it’s one of these sorts of tournaments where it’s a single digit sort of win and he pulls it off at eight underpar and all those all that skill set that he brings to the table plays a lot better during a course

Like this looking at the next wave we got Cameron young Justin Thomas at 31 Willie Z at 32 and Matt Fitzpatrick is also at 32 you know what we’ll throw in your boy Jason day spener at 35 to1 Spencer flipping it back to you among JT

Cam young Willie Z matd Fitz and J day which one would you most like that free ticket on I I mean I feel like the answer just from what we’ve seen historically of players that are like able to win events like Fitzpatrick’s a major championship winner I feel like he should be the

Natural point and maybe this is just a problem of me always feeling like I need to find a way to back Cameron young in some of these spots he has shown no win potential on the PJ tour anytime he gets up there things have fallen apart but uh

The biggest climber in in my model when looking at expected weighted T to Green performance versus his Baseline uh he skyrocketed in my sheet for all the reasons that I talked about with the driver and how he propelled up in that area I don’t I don’t know if it makes

Sense to B him where he’s at I wanted to find a matchup with him potentially there’s maybe a rout to route to go there with it but I like Cameron young I’m gonna be the person that buys back in for the million time during this tournament in some capacity maybe not

Necessarily as an outright ticket but I will have Expos him in some area what do you think Nick next question cameon all right moving on uh minw Le 45 to1 I know you guys don’t like him Tom Kims 50 to1 hii matama winner at Genesis Invitational is also 50 to1 Harris

English is 50 to1 okay uh Ben an is 50 to1 and sah theala also 55 to1 actually we’re going to make this one one big 50 to1 range uh throw Rowan Adam Scott as well 55 to1 and our boy Windam Clark is 55 to1 Nick throwing it back to you among

Those seven or eight guys who would you most like the outright to get on between 45 and 55 to one I’m still believer Tom Kim I think he’s the best iron player out of the group I don’t think the distance matters a whole lot to him he’s

Very accurate off the te and I like that long iron play give me Tom Kim Spencer I don’t love this range of any of those names that you said If by being honest here um I think Ben on at least has some Intrigue to him I I don’t know

If I necessarily love it to actually win this contest for me well I don’t exactly know what to expect from him I guess I’ll go with Hideki we did just see him win at the Genesis during his last start at his best Hideki was the best player

In this range to where he’s a major championship winner he’s an Immaculate ball Striker that always has excelled better at these courses where you give him the ability where if he can make less putts he has a better chance to win the event so I’ll say Hideki I I don’t

Know if any of those names necessarily bring me to the point of like super Intrigue with it but I think keki has the most the most similar profile of a golfer who is going to win this Tournament of past examples of it I’m a sucker I like Lam Clark the most in that

Group I think he he’s a better golfer than those guys right now for the most part I just can’t bet him every week and after we hit on him at 100 to one at at Pebble I’m cool with laying away from him for now but what what Clark has

Going for him very quickly is it’s the same answer that I’ve given about Ober and hin where he is great out of this thicker rough stuff I just don’t know if I necessarily love him to win this tournament um he does kind of have similar upside numbers in his game that

We’re we’re talking about and I guess he would be the second choice if for going down that route with it but I don’t know to me these were a lot lot of prices here in that like 50 to1 range to where I was just generally trying to avoid

This section because I thought the value was not there all right that concludes our rapid fire up to 50 to1 to recap Spencer you have an outright on Scotty sheffler you have Jake knp over JT Poston and you have will zorus over minwu Lee Nick you

Have Rory at 9 to1 outright you have hoard at 100 to1 outright and then you’ve got oberg at 20 to1 in that range outright is that correct um and then 20 23 yes 23 sorry I didn’t get that right um and then hadwin top 20 plus 180 as

Well for me I’ve got joerger and Pavone at 90 and 100 to one in reverse order Pavone 90 Jagger 100 to one I’m Madden LC list at 110 to one I’ve got Victor havin at 16 to1 and I’ve got Max H at 30 to1 any bets that I missed there

Gentlemen that’s it for me all right um we got all those plays I’m also tailing Spencer two matchup bets love those Fades so give me the fade of Poston and Min Le oh and we got another inod play where we added Ben Ben on over MIM le as

Well at minus 110 fellas where can we find your work starting with you Spencer yeah you can find me over at Twitter tof Sports uh you can get my model over there we I I providing a lot of content over for Action Network the head-to-head plays have remained very hot on that

Front uh Salvage the week last week unfortunately uh Carson young would have been the one with uh Nick’s Top 40 on him that would have moved the M needle there he ends up finding the water so that unfortunately pushed it in the other direction but little very small

Profit three in one on the head-to-head matchups uh over 70% this year on head-to-heads in general so going to try to keep that hot on that front and uh you can find most of that available here at action Network awesome looking forward to seeing that article tomorrow afternoon

Uh on who knows what you’ll have maybe matchups maybe more uh API maybe more Puerto Rico open we’ll see what happens yeah Nick where can the people find your work this week better golf on Twitter and stick piix stiix on Twitter um also the Best Bets article this week at Action Network

But yeah excited to get back in the podcast life with Spencer to talk more um more DFS so if you guys are interested that market check us out check us out at better gopod on Twitter awesome I’m diving into DFS more got to be into more tournaments because last

Time I played I was first place in a double up and that doesn’t feel very good even if had a double up but uh you can find me on Twitter Roberto 8213 next tournament that I’m calling did the cognizant last week with Christina Kim that was a blast gonna be

Doing this the Houston open later this month so very excited for that uh otherwise you can catch me here on Action Network work if you find any typos on any of our golf articles let your boy know um for that for Spencer Nick and me and for everybody at Action

Network that makes our podcast possible big thank you to Matt Mitchell David Payne no neidhofer our producers here and big thanks to you the fans here’s to hoping we hit the green this week at Bay Hill that