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Hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational data dive show we have quite a lot to get into uh some field changes for the Arnold Palmer thanks to the cognizant wrapping up earlier today uh three new players into the field which knocks out three players
Um got a lot to cover don’t want to waste any time let’s get into it all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money it’s going to make you a much smarter golf Gambler and a
Much better golf DFS player go check out fantasy national.com you won’t regret it in the description to the video there are links to all of the social media first off my X and Instagram where I posted some research earlier today around the past 12 winners here at Bay
Hill and the pattern that they all share uh and on top of that gave you the the list of names of players in the field that qualify this week so if you want to see the weekly uh research that I do on the PGA tour give me a follow at your
Preferred social media site X or Instagram X is also where I place my weekly betting cards and my top player usage in DFS for the week’s tournament uh for all the DFS contests that I play so if you want to see those pieces of information give me a follow over at X
And then lastly for social media gab’s handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a very good way to start your week of preparation and research and then he continues to update you throughout the week uh with his own version of recent
Form course history and all of that so uh really do recommend going to check out uh gab’s article has a lot of great information in it uh so go show him some support and subscribe to that article it is free to do by the way which if you
Are a subscriber you already know that you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat every Wednesday evening after calls calls as we continue the DFS talk over there in his substack chat uh so you don’t want to miss out on that either then lastly for uh this
Intro we are Live Chat is open how did your cognizant classic end up going mine was about the worst it could have went for me um Shane Lowry kind of falls apart there towards the end of the tournament I did have um small amount of Austin necro but not nearly enough no
Minw le no Eric Van royan so my DFS lineups certainly cratered today and so for yours truly uh we’re going to try to U get back on the winning ways like we were at the Genesis a couple of weeks ago uh so hopefully you had much more
Success than I did uh so let me know in chat whether you had some Austin ecro outright um your how your DFS went and then who have you punched in terms of uh Wagers uh tickets and whatnot uh for the Arnold Palmer already this week and then
Who are the players you’re focused on in DFS so let’s uh dig into the weeds of the data for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational and we’re going to start as we always do on a Monday evening with the extended forecast at windfinder you see that there is not a
Lot of wind in the forecast at least for Thursday now Friday and Saturday uh looks to be pretty Gusty which would really really make Bay Hill very challenging and then it looks like it’s going to back off a little bit at least in the forecast right now on Sunday so
We will update this Wednesday night at the beginning of the show for the DFS tactics show of course but as of right now uh nothing that would signify forcing you to look at a particular half of the field especially since this is uh
Only a 70 man field or a 69 man field so not much uh to look at in terms of wind just some overall metrics here so we’re going to close out of that we’re going to mooved to Fantasy National and I mentioned at the top of the show how
There were three field changes so thanks to the results of the cognizant classic there were three players that played themselves into this week’s Palmer and three players that essentially play themselves out of the tournament the first player to play themselves into the tournament is minwu le minw le is in the
Field this week you also have Eric Van royan Eric Van royan has played himself into the field this week and of course your winner at the connaissent classic Austin ecro so those are the three players that have played themselves into the field this week for for the onal Palmer Invitational the three players
That uh have uh they’re taken their spots have essentially played themselves out of the tournament Thomas dietry his um rather I can’t say comical cuz if you’ve played golf you’ve been there before but uh the very widely circulated on social media uh six putt that he had
This past week uh so Thomas dietry not in the field this week um has played in himself out Mark hubard is out and the third toas dietre Mark hubard uh it has escaped me dang I thought I was going to get there uh to see all the field changes go check out
Rob Bolton over on X uh he handles all of the field changes uh it is escaping me who the third uh of those three that um are not in due to their performance uh Hub drie yeah I forgotten it um so if you know feel free to put it in chat and
Correct me but uh for the players that are in the field this week um what we know about Bay Hill it is long and it is difficult so we can look at long courses those that are measured over 7,400 yards Bay heill measures about 7,470 or so we’re going to expand this
Out to two years to get enough rounds to make it statistically significant on Long courses in the past two years your top performers have been Scotty sheffler sunjay Xander Cory Connors Colin morawa Matt Fitzpatrick Max hom Nikolai hoard Chris Kirk and Victor hin you’ll note that uh some of this will have changed
Um fantasy National did update to get the cognizing classic in here about a half an hour ago so I am not all that familiar with the rankings and and the performance of the players at the cognizant so it’ll be interesting to note uh note that but that is now in
Fantasy National there’s a look at your top players on Long courses we are going to remove all of this and then check for when rounds are difficult as we know uh and saw from last night in the initial research you will get a few rounds that play to average especially if the wind
Is calm but most of the time in the past four to five years Bay Hill has been difficult and uh they generally want it to be difficult here so when rounds are difficult relative to par your top performers in the field this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational Scotty
Sheffer Rory Patrick C oh excuse me uh let’s try this again Scotty Rory Victor hin Tommy Fleetwood Xander Will zator Patrick kley wendam Clark Jordan spe and Matt Fitzpatrick are your top 10 in terms of players or total performance when rounds are difficult uh because we
Saw that there could be some wind that picks up uh on Friday and especially Saturday let’s go ahead and check some wind performance it could have uh could have a factor this week although it doesn’t look like it will be Thursday you never know it is Florida weather changes there
Drastically uh and quickly your top performers in moderate and windy conditions the past couple of years Scotty Rory Victor hin Patrick kley Xander wam Clark Justin Thomas Jordan spe Corey Connor and Denny McCarthy are your top 10 in terms of performance in moderate and windy conditions all right
With that uh that’s going to be it for the review or a look at a lot of The Strokes gain total performance as I really want to just dive in to these um prior leader boards and really get a a good feel for the metrics that we want
To look at so so we’re we know we’re going to look at off the te but let’s take a look at a couple of Prior leaderboards see what played extremely well uh last year and perhaps two years ago we’ll highlight the top 20 here just due to ties you notice that only one
Player negative in off the tea this is what I was mentioning last night uh off the tea is just going to carry a significant amount of weight um not just in distance you have to have a lot of accuracy accuracy as well so I am going
To have quite a bit of a skew to off the tea this week with the emphasis of um knowing that there is a lot of trouble um if you are wward off the tea approach you know yet Jason day was uh fractions of um or marginally under uh field average so getting
Rounded to zero only a couple players negative in terms of approach so again backing up what I was mentioning last night is I just think of Bill as a ball Striker course uh you had a few players negative in putting and a whole lot of players negative in around the green um
So if we sort on these you know Keith Mitchell 6 and A2 Victor approaching 6 and 1/2 5 and 1/2 almost 5 and A2 five or even a little bit more so just a lot of bigger numbers in the off the te and the approach yay sure you had had maxom
With an eight a seven 6 and2 but you quickly got into those same caliber numbers off the tea or in approach that you had in off the te so and it’s quite a bit more correlating as well in off the te so really trying to emphasize the
Point here that off the te is going to carry a significant amount of weight around the green sure um you got some cut making in here but you know very quickly pretty high up on this leaderboard uh you’re into the three and 1 halfs and then the two and 1/2s so I
Think around the green is going to play a small factor but so far the off the te has been the most correlating and consistently the higher um values in here and then we look at putting yes you have some Elite finishes at the very top of the putting leaderboard you would
Expect that but um again again kind of decent amount of cut making but not a whole lot of uh correlation here if we go to 2022 and Scotty’s win and looking at The Strokes gained top 16 here due to ties that’s a little bit um different in Scotty’s year whereas the around the
Green was a big factor you only had one player negative but I’m looking at some of these numbers again 1.2 as 0.9 1.7 yeah you got a couple of you know Stellar performances from Russell Henley at a 5 and 1/2 and Lucas Herbert’s a six Lucas Herbert is
Most known for his short game anyway so he’s a short game type of player um but again a lot in the approach only two players or three players negative and two of them were again rudely darn close to field average so only one player uh really really poor in the irons the off
The was a little bit less than what we saw in 2023 or last year if we sort again fairly solid fairly solid other than KH Lee up here at the top who was you know finished 42nd but a top 20 runner up top 15 top 20 pretty solid
Stuff up here in terms of off the te approach was the biggest Factor Scotty ROM Taylor G was really good with his irons um really good in general uh two years ago here Max Homa you can see the elite level of correlation especially at the top behind Martin lard or surrounding
Martin lard around the green some fairly decent numbers but you know again look at Brennan Todd lead in around the green was a very very poor made cut Adam shank was very middling um you got some you know finishes outside the top 25 and outside the top 30 down
Here again I think it’ll be a small factor but I am still focused on the ball striking here and of course if you’re making a lot of putts you’ll be rising um a lot on the leaderboard so we’ll get this set for the next uh page
View I’m going to be focused on off the te especially but ball striking in general so in the last 12 months uh and I’m thinking about whether I want to to use a filter or not if anything I might use the difficult relative to par but
For right now we’ll just take a look at a big you know big picture view uh zoomed out view if you will your top off the tea players in the field this week Rory Scotty sheffler Victor Cameron Cameron young Ben on minwu Lee ludvic Oar Cory Connors Eric Van royan and
Stephan joerger are your top 10 in terms of off the te if you want to factor in uh difficult to par your top off the te players when rounds are difficult Scotty Patrick kley Rory Victor hin seiw Kim Rises uh considerably uh when rounds are
Difficult in terms of off the tea Min W Le Cameron Young Adam Scott Rises Jordan spe and Austin eot are your top 10 in off the tea when rounds are difficult all right looking at approach again just making sure I don’t have any filters you’re just straight up your top
Strokes gained approach players in the last 36 rounds in the field this week Scotty Xander Lucas Glover Colin morawa Tom hogi Chris Kirk Shane Lowry Eric Cole Matthew Pavone and Eric Van royan top around the green players and again you can look at several ways around the green difficult maybe some
Around the Green in long rough uh I’m just going to take a quick look at around the green cuz I know it’s only going to have about 5% in the Final Mix condition model uh and feel free to jump in chat if you want to combine a certain metric with a filter
Uh I’m just going to look at um things generally from a big picture view um this evening your top around the green players McKenzie Hughes Hideki Scotty Sheffer minw Lee Justin Thomas CT pay wendam Clark sahit tagala SEIU Kim Russell Henley all right bear with me here got to grab
Um all of the courses that have Tiff Eagle Bermuda so of course Bay Hill where we are this week we’re going to grab PJ National where we were last week week for the cognizant classic um the plantation course at caloa is pure Tiff Eagle Bermuda Port Royal host of the Butterfield Bermuda
And then finally we have Sea Island the host of the RSM in the fall so we’ll apply those course filters on Tiff Eagle Bermuda in the past two years your top Putters on this surface have been Eric Cole Sam Burns Harris English Chris Kirk McKenzie Hughes Taylor Moore Matt
Fitzpatrick ludvic Oar Jordan spe and Justin Rose so perhaps you want to give these guys a little bit of a boost uh considering you know that they putt this surface generally well but again I am looking mostly at off the teen approach uh in terms of Strokes game
Gained uh I’ll keep the last two years cuz I’m sure we’ll be using this difficult uh to power filter let’s look at some driving and some greens some good drives gained and whatnot uh from last year I didn’t think I was going to use too much of distance but looking at last
Year especially distance played a pretty decent Factor now kittama was closer to field average but Rory Terell Hatton not generally the longest had quite a bit of distance um here last year Cameron young of course Fitzpatrick tala Ben Griffin but the biggest correlation at least for the players that finish in the
Top 20 just look at this good drives gained you got a couple players that were at a minus two and then Ben Griffin at a minus four didn’t hit very many greens but you’ve got a lot of of players that were were positive by a
Good amount here in good drives gain 9 9 7 8 five and five a little bit lower greens could be something as well if we sord on this distance again last year played a decent Factor I’m going tell you that a little bit of an outlier a
Little bit of a um can’t say misleading uh it’s certainly the exception um in the past 5 years in terms of distance it generally does play a factor but not as much as this would insinuate um Fairways by themselves not necessarily the most correlating although kyama did lead in them last
Year not necessarily the most correlating in terms of success here that’s why I’m just looking at off the tea in of itself to combine these two but really look at this good drives gained first second couple other top fives the million G was middling top 25
Couple of top 15s couple of other top 25s a little bit further down here I really feel strongly about this good drives gained metric this week for Bay Hill and just looking at greens you know similar to good drives gain with kittama leading but You’ got a
Lot more poor performances in here um up higher on the leaderboard in terms of greens so at least from last year year distance did play a pretty decent Factor uh but it was mainly the good drives gain if we look at 2022 in Scotty’s year Harris English is
Popping up a lot hey Tony good evening thanks for jumping in chat yeah he has played well here and I’m I’m going through this a little bit quickly because there is quite a bit of information I would like to share with you all in Microsoft Excel later on this
Evening so um if you want me to slow down just mention it but I am going to try to get through as much of the fantasy National portion as I can but glad to see you in chat hopefully your cognizant classic went a lot better than
Mine uh if we look at two years ago this is more aching to what I would have what I was mentioning how distance doesn’t play the biggest Factor you got quite a few players that were negative and a lot of these numbers are a lot closer to
Field average Scotty was you know a decent amount ahead but Victor who really moves it only gained 13 and a half over the four rounds um Gary Woodland Matt Fitzpatrick was pretty darn close to field average again look at these good drives gained for the top 16 only two players negative
In that metric if we sort you got some decent amount of cut making here in terms of distance sure but that’s why I’m again just focus on the off the to combine it with both of these of these two metrics I’m just looking at this good drives game
Not as correlating as it was last year but a top 15 a top 20 a middling Danny Lee was pretty darn poor sure he hit just a bunch of greens a couple of top 25s essentially top 20 top 10 lots of good stuff here in the good drives gained and especially looking at
The amount that there is in here greens a little bit more correlating but I’m still feeling pretty strong about this good drive gained so we’ll set this for the scoring that’ll be pretty easy to talk about when we get to that all right going to Fairways and
Greens again uh we can take a slight look at distance but I’m focused on this good drives gain so your top distance players um yeah I’ll just say the last two years Rory minw Le Ben on Ludi obar Adam scottt Patrick Rogers with Windam Clark Sam Burns Jake knp and Stephen
Joerger if you think distance is going to play a little bit bigger or more of a factor than I am uh then you might want to give these players a little bit more of a boost in your uh considerations for Wagers and and lineups and whatnot but
For me I’m going to be looking at when rounds are difficult who is uh who are leading in these good drives gained um fantasy National defines a good drive gained as a player has hit the Fairway off the tea or they are still hitting the Green in
Regulation if they miss the Fairway your top good drives gained players in the last two years Colin morawa Scotty Tom Kim Xander Shane Lowry Bryan Todd Victor hin Patrick Klay Russell Henley and Austin e root there’s your top 10 there uh we could absolutely look at some scrambling
As well so your top scramble lers when rounds have been difficult to par Denny McCarthy Tommy Max hom Matt Fitzpatrick Brendan Todd Andrew putam Sam Burns Sun Jay Jason day and Cam Davis all right we’ll get this set for the scoring they’re going to be pretty pretty easy here looking at last
Year you’ve got a few you know three players each negative but your top bogey avoider is much further down here KK kyama leaning into the bogey avoidance look at Harris English massive amounts in favor of the bogey avoidance yeah you have a couple of Birdie gained preferences as well I
Say preference you know leading in that category um bogy avoidance here so if we sort 24th 21st and then first first fourth fourth 10th 2nd 8th I mean that’s fairly strong but 24th and 21st were the two leaders in terms of birdies gained and they finished outside the top 20
Whereas in bogy avoidance you’re top two second and first now it falls off quickly after that you even have a miscut up here from Gary Woodland very high who avoided Bogey’s pretty darn well just didn’t gain any birdies at all so it must have parred everything except
Um maybe a bogey here and there Rory J day so runner up top 10 not as correlating as I would have thought to be fair but second and first led in the category looking at 2022 and birdies and Bogies gained more players positive in terms of Bird’s gained in your top 20
13th 20th and then some top fives your winner was a little bit further down here the 4.8 bogey avoidance 17th 10th or 9th couple of top 20s top 15 winner wasn’t up here as High um this could be a situation where the leaderboards are suggesting the
Birdies gained and then the data for the top 30 is Sugg adjusting uh B bogey avoidance cuz we saw that especially compared to the average full field course that bogey avoidance was the big thing this probably is going to be a situation where I’m going to factor in
Both Bird’s gain and bogey avoidance in fact if we take a look at doubles you got some 21s in here kind of interesting 2023 double bogey avoidance yeah just a 1.5 so again probably not a a lot here in terms of double bogey avoidance but like last week when rounds
Were difficult we looked at birdies gained and Bogies avoided uh in the mixed condition model we’re not going to be looking at birdies or better gained um let’s see this is where is yeah down here sorry the Eagles Bar just non-existent Eagles just don’t happen
Here very huting at Bay Hill so we not going to be looking at birdies or better we’ll just be looking at birdies gained so when rounds are difficult or have been difficult the past two years our top birdies gained players Rory Wills alores wendam Clark Scotty Victor hin
Xander sahit tagala colore Kaa Patrick kley and Ricky there’s your top 10 there um Rory top 10 in both Windham Clark is third in both Scotty’s fourth and first Victor H’s top 10 in both Xander’s top 10 in both Patrick cley’s top 10 in both so a lot of overlap here absolutely a
Lot of overlap but you’re top bogey avoiders when rounds are difficult Scotty Tommy Fleetwood Rises he is 17th in birdies which isn’t terrible wasn’t top 10 but second in bogey avoidance winam Clark Matt Fitzpatrick Hadi much more in the bogey avoidance than the birdies gained kley sander Rory Victor havin and
Jday your top 10 in bogey avoidance when rounds are difficult all right let’s set this for pro well I was going to do proximity apparently I wanted to go to putting all right move or remove the difficult to power filter uh proximity in my mind is just proximity whether
You’re uh 200 yd way five yards away whatever um difficult easy proximity is proximity this is going to be pretty darn easy I think um if there is a range we saw last night that it was in the 200 plus you see Kurt Kurt kyama really excelled at that range last year
Majority of your players up here in the top 20 excelled at the 200 plus lots of green up here lots of green in the total procs to be fair as well um 10th 24th first kind of falls off a little bit there 53rd some middlings from ROM and
Windham Clark this cut from bazen hoot 200 plus 61st and then first 39 14 39 70th not the greatest in terms of of correlation again it’s just the fact that a lot of the players that finished in the top 20 were positive in 200 plus 2022 proximity now Scott wasn’t particularly
Great from that range but you see the runner up or one of the runner-ups Victor was amazing at that range Cory Connor was great from that range if we look at total procs again total procs looks fairly fairly solid as well got some decent amount of cut making with some some Elite performances
Scattered in here second ninth top 15 200 plus second lead way whoops second Leed the way onon liri was really you know pretty poor miscut hogi midling Connor so you got your cut making in here in the 200 plus it’s going to it’s going to play a
Factor I think it’s going to play a factor your top total procs players in the field this week in the past 36 rounds Scotty Colin morawa Lucas Glover Chris Kirk Tom hogi lud viic obar Eric Cole Justin loward Tom Kim and Rory of those 10 Oar
Fourth col more Kawa 7th and the 200 plus those two you would probably put pretty big star next to um they are top 10 in both Total procs and uh oh whoops I am so used to 200 plus being all the way to the right so scratch that give me
A second 200 plus they’ve changed that it’s now right here so it’s going opposite I apologize all right 200 plus you’ve got Scotty Sheffer number one and number eight Tom hogi Fifth and first Rory 10th and third so those three players Rory hogy and Scotty sheffler
You’d want to Star those players as they are top 10 in both Total procs and 200 plus specifically looking at 200 plus proximity Tom hogi Luke list Rory Cory Connors Adams Vincent Sammy valaki cam young Scotty sheffler Xander and seah tagala are your top 10 specifically at 200 plus
Proximity all right par 3es fours and fives par 3es I spent a lot of last night talking about it I’ll continue to talk about it tonight um part 3es were really kind of focused on just this range here although skyf didn’t play that range all that
Well um Parrs were a little bit um less important in 2022 even so if you sort on it 7th 11th top 20 couple of middlings Scotty she still you know top six in the field in par three performance still going to have to play them well fits uh
Top 10 top 15 top 15 so par three is pretty big factor generally here at Bay Hill not uh not as much in the 200 to 225 a couple years ago if we look at last year kittama win you see he really played them extremely well 3.4 out of a
4.1 possibility he didn’t lead in the par 3es but he was pretty darn close to it Hatton now minw le was good in the part 3s uh didn’t do much else correct apparently um but was was pretty good in the part 3es um again don’t get too hung up here look
At all these numbers they’re 0.2s you might have a 1.2 occasionally there’s not a lot to be gained on that one par five or par three excuse me there’s only one par three that measures to this length it’s mainly in the 200 to 225 is what we’re looking at in terms of the
Part three and I’ll really back that up uh in Excel here in a moment but your top par three performers from 200 to 225 yards in the past 36 rounds Colin orala Justin low popped a couple of times now at 6200 almost the bottom of the price
Board Rory sahit tala ludvic obar Luke list Austin eot Adam hadwin Eric Cole and Tom Kim here’s your top 10 in terms of 200 to 225 par three performers moving right along to the par fours still going to be you know be played needing to be played pretty well
Only one player negative in them but they’re going to carry a little bit less weight considering you still you have your full allotment of four par 3s and four par FS here at Bay Hill now last night it said that the 400 to 450 was the most important range
Compared to the average full field course which was kind of interesting we’ll see um kind of looks that way last year at least only a couple players negative yeah I mean first second eth 10th second fourth top 15 par fors are still going to be they’re not going to be ignored by any
Means you still got to play them well it is 60% of the of the holes at Bay Hill and Kama Leed uh or did his most damage on the 400 to 450 pretty decent correlation there uh not as much here hopefully that’s fairly obvious 450
To5 decent but again you got a couple of miscuts preh high up here uh in the 450 to 5 so really your top performers were in the 400 to 450 which is interesting to think about considering the majority of or half of the par FS fall from 4 450 to
5 interesting I’m just taking a quick look like 458 that could in Theory come down into the 400 to 450 467 is pretty well I would think stuck into that range 480 is definitely pretty well stuck into that range now 460 could come down and 461 maybe so you got a few you
Know maybe two or three of those par fivs or par fours that could fall under 450 maybe um 2022 par fors again you’re going to have to play them well Scotty didn’t play them as well as some of his other playing competitors but you know not a single player negative in par
Fours two negative here two negative here 6.7 so F fifth 7th second couple of middlings and a Mis cut you had your cut making in here nothing astronomical in terms of correlation though really 52nd 42nd 61st winter this is where it was the year before 450 to FS which would make more
Sense considering half of the par fours are in this range but it certainly wasn’t the case last year so interesting quite interesting um not sure I see a specific range to be honest with you so we’ll take a look at at all three of them your top power four
Performers in general Oar Scotty Sheffer Rory Ben on Xander Eric Cole Adam Scott minw Le cley and havland um so Oar Scotty Sheffer definitely put a big star next to those two they are top 10 in both 400 to 450 and 450 to 5 honorable mention to Ben on and Xander Eric
Cole those get some honorable mentions they’re top 20 in one and top 10 in the other not too bad there’s a look at your top shorter par 4 performers Henley on Scott obar Ben Le and on down and then your longer par fors h Xander Rory kley Oar and on
Down then lastly we’re going to wrap this up with par fives um it’s it’s mainly just in the 550 to six since three of the four par fivs fall into that range now Kirk kyama didn’t play the par fives well at all last year at all but you see Rory
Dominated on that on that length of par fivs speed played them well kley sheffler if we sort just on that 4th 2nd 14th 4th 4th 8th 10th 25 I mean that’s really strong correlation really strong about the same or even stronger than the actual par five Strokes game par five
Correlation and if we look at 2022 and Par fives Scotty really took advantage of him Victor was okay Hatton yeah I mean pendrith play them extremely well to a middling finish and then Scotty top 20 little bit turn Less in here however par five just weren’t all that correlating in general though 42nd
Lead 38th miscut from Stallings surrounded by the elite performances of Sheffer Woodland young havin and so forth so interesting interesting stuff there your top par five performers from 550 to 600 in the field this week spe Grayson Murray wendham Clark Stephan joer Colin orawa Harris English M Hughes Sam Burns EVR and Max
Hom all right ran through that fairly quickly so Phil free to put something in chat if you want to look at something specific like a metric and filter combination right now we’re going to go to Microsoft Xcel take care of a few things cuz I do want to share with you
All quite a bit um here this evening a lot with the research that I did over on social media first thing I like to do let’s take a look at last year’s mixed condition model see what metrics I used uh the percentages filters how it
Performed so um I had one two three four five M Cuts in my top 20 about what I’m looking for four to five maybe a little bit on the on the bad end considering this is a smaller field event only 118 or 120 players um so five might be a little bit
Heavy on that but you know I I would accepted um four to five uh kittama was nowhere near the top of my rankings you know 83rd for me kind of came out of nowhere uh otherwise I mean Rory always going to be popular Sheffer was popular jday was pretty darn
Popular uh now Fitzpatrick at a at a sub 10% who top 15 that was useful havin top 10 at 12% was useful so little good little bad um I this would probably yield a a disappointing DFS result for me so I’m looking to improve on this
Absolutely um a lot of my more unique options Justin Rose Patrick Rogers they didn’t pan out so definitely got some room for improvement here what did I look at I had 15% in approach makes quite a bit of sense I’ve been focused on um focused on
Ball striking 15% par fivs that does not seem correct I think I’m going to be looking at just the 550 50 to 600 this week so this is probably an area where uh that was that was just incorrect to look at so that could you know absolutely be a a contributing factor
Here hey good evening Darnell back at it to lose yeah it seems that way I know it’s been a rough couple of weeks but that’s just the way it’s the way things go um can’t you can’t get discouraged can’t get discouraged um you all it
Takes is that is a one big week like what we had two or three weeks ago um to to write the ship again and and make uh make us forget you know the the previous month so hopefully we’re going to find find that winner find uh find some some optimal plays this
Week um thoughts on Keegan and Windam Clark tell you what Keegan’s played very very well here very well here now Windam Clark feels like he would fit but I don’t I’ve got some concerns with Windam Clark but we’ll get into we’ll get into some of that here in a little bit I do
Like Keegan um he has generally played well here he has generally played well here um so par fives that seems uh incorrect putting 10% if anything that’s a little bit heavy I might back it off a little bit to 5% of course we’ll be focused on just the Tiff Eagle Bermuda
So I can I can accept this being off from last year uh now that we’re a bit more sophisticated knowing you know what courses have the specific Tiff eagle and whatnot yeah 10% into 200 plus proximity makes a lot of sense 30% of the approach shots here at Bay Hill come from 200
Plus it’s generally a a very big factor we saw a little bit of that um in the prior leaderboards 10% par fours I would have thought 5% but boy they were they were pretty darn correlating weren’t they so that probably does feel about correct uh 10% in the par fours only 5%
In the off the te this this feels very very light this feels very wrong going to be upping this percentage of off the tea quite a bit this year um so that that is some percentage that we’re going to add to 5% around the green I used the
Long rough uh filter whether or not that’s correct you can use long rough maybe difficult to par maybe just around the Green in general uh but I’m feeling pretty good with the 5% um just don’t know if I want to combine the around the green with with that
Filter uh I went 5% Bogey and I went 5% doubles I think it’s fair to say the doubles isn’t really needing to be looked at we looked at that uh in the prior leaderboards uh not a lot to be gained there so 5% bogey avoidance I would have thought this needed to be
10% um and I think they it I think it does need to be 10% when I look at how predictive these were but man we need to we need to factor in the birdies gain too cuz that was really really correlating as I was talking about I did
Look at good drives 5% when it’s difficult I also looked at greens I don’t know if I’m going to do greens this year I’m really kind of thinking it’s going to be the good drives gain I really the more I thought about it this week um leading into Bay Hill the more I
Just I really like the thought of trying to find players that are either going to hit their hit the fairways or if they’re good enough with their irons to find the green if they’re in the rough and I ended my mixed condition model last year with some specifics the only par three
Factor I had was in the 200 to 225 but it was only at 5% I think this is very incorrect like the off the te I think it needs to rise in consideration or in percentage weight in the mixed condition model and you see I did have 5% in the
400 to 450 specific range of power fors how predictive were these some of them were pretty good and some of them weren’t approach pretty darn solid pretty darn solid in terms of predictability the par FS weren’t this is why I think this was just incorrect
We need to look at the specific range of par FS here and absolutely no reason to have 15% in there we need to bring that down um so two different things that we need to change with that look at the different metric and bring the percentage down putting was not very
Good at all but again I can accept that knowing that we’re a little bit more sophisticated now going to narrow down the exact courses that have Tiff Eagle Bermuda and who puts Tiff Eagle Bermuda better or you know the best so I can accept that uh now that we’re a bit more
Sophisticated proc 200 boy look at that that is that was the most predictive metric last year for the players that finished in the top 28 or maybe it was top 30 42 is very very strong so it was you know even better than the approach
200 plus is going to uh give us a lot par fours we okay not nothing great off the te another reason why I’m I’m harping on off the tea this week it was very very predictive last year it generally has been it’s been a very consistent metric year-over-year at Bay
Hill in terms of of predictability around the green was fine bogey avoidance very strong now surprisingly at least for me the good drives gain weren’t nearly as high as I thought I still think it’s correct to look at good drives gained and then the par 3’s 200 to 225 was the
Worst performing metric other than the putting so uh maybe not as heavy in the par 3es as I would have thought but again we’re going to we’re getting ready to go look at some specific data to Bay Hill and I’ll show you why I’m just I’m stubborn
Believing that this is going to be an important factor this week so there’s a look at last year’s mixed condition model how it performed how predictive it was all of that uh so let me save that and we’re going to go to the heavy detail of Bay Hill and the
Arnold Palmer Invitational other than last year when it when it jumped in importance it’s been fairly consistent now 2022 was actually a little bit less but it’s been fairly consistent year over-ear you had a you had a slight drop and then you had a big increase in the
Past two years so again somewhere in the middle I think it’s probably where it’s going to be approach surprisingly has been decreasing your year over year here I still think it’s correct to look at it but that’s why I’m looking more so in the off of te cuz it’s generally been
More consistent around the greens Been Everywhere 2022 it mattered a lot 2021 it mattered a lot last year it didn’t hardly matter at all I do not like in U you know volatile statistics that’s why I don’t really like putting as well having said that the P the past four years at Bay
Hill has been pretty consistent in terms of uh how important the putting has been so this is why I’m only going 5% in the around the green it’s just generally a pretty volatile statistic around Bay Hill so we’re going to be heavy in the off the te I wanted to put 15% in
Approach but man it’s it’s pretty uh it’s Stark to see it’s just in decreased in value year over-year essentially the putting’s been pretty consistent these past four years moving into driving and greens look there was a big outlier last year having said that uh much or uh you know the opposite of
The approach with the approach losing in importance year-over-year the driving has gained slightly year-over year it just took a massive jump last year I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re more in line with this um but this is why I’m I’m factoring in uh off the te as opposed to just
Distance cuz you got to find Fairways and we’ve seen that with the good drives gained here uh and greens have slowly lost in importance year-over-year as well going to birdies and Bogies now two up to two years ago the birdies hadn’t been all that important and in
The past two years look how much the birdies have really mattered so are we starting to see a new pattern develop here at Bay Hill where the birdies are the more important statistic or are we going to go with the full 5year sample uh where the bogey avoidance has been the main cont
Contributor to success um if it was only one year I’d be more willing to write it off as you know a one-year aberration or or or an outlier two years in a row and specifically last year look how much the bogey avoidance fell perhaps we’re looking at a new um a
New pattern being established here we’ll see but there’s a look at the scoring scor buggy avoidance is still hanging on but it’s not by much where we’re going to gain a whole lot of insight around Bay Hill especially in the specific length of par 3es fours and fives all right average of
A 1.16 on these par 3s 70 to 75% of The Strokes gain total in your par 3s fall to this range now it was it it Dr dropped drastically if I could talk dropped drastically last year but it had been you know close to 80 to 85% of The Strokes gain
Total in the par 3es up until then I’m still still thinking it’s the 200 to 225 that we want to look at so there’s where my stubbornness is coming from knowing that this range has contributed to again 70 to 75% of The Strokes gain total in par 3s I’m going
To stick with the 200 to 225 moving to par fours yeah surprisingly it is the 400 to 450 that has been the most or that is leading uh most in terms of Strokes gain total for par fours but it’s still not even half so it looks
Like we’re just kind of looking at at par fours in general just kind of par fours in general really is what it seems like to me and then par fives again about 65 to 70% are in this range of par fives so it’s basically saying to really focus
On that range and look how much it spiked last year and I mean it’s spiked two two years in a row so we’re probably seeing I would think a new pattern develop in terms of Bay Hill and the the importance of these links of par fives and that’s why we just looked at
The 550 to 6 all right so there’s a look at Bay Hill in some specific data around what has played well at Bay Hill the past 5 years the second to last thing we’re going to uh look at tonight let’s take a look at the early look file uh look at
The players who have played Bay Hill the past 5 years these metrics that we have went through tonight what we think is going to play well and who’s been the best at those metrics at Bay Hill so in the past 5 years your best off the tea
Players here Patrick CLE it’s only one time Grio has been very good off the tea here Cameron Young Wills alores Victor hin also very good off the tea here Fitzpatrick second in Strokes gain total behind Rory we you asked earlier about uh Keegan and Windam Clark look at Keegan average finish average finish
Inside the top 25 here he’s played all five years he’s been very good at all four of your Strokes gained um generally a ball Striker anyway but he’s been good around the green and he and he been good with the putter here as well so I do
Like Keegan quite a bit um I don’t know what kind of odds he would be in a top 20 uh by himself but certainly somebody I would consider pretty highly for uh part of a parlay like you were mentioning last week Tony he’s been very good but some other players like sun
Jay’s been very good uh excuse me Max hom and sunj have been very good off the tea here uh been on a little bit less in terms of success but he’s been good off off the tea hogy list and then moving on down don’t want to forget the irons by any
Means so your top iron players at Bay Hill the past five years web again only one time there’s Colin War Kawa Max Scotty Grio very good in the ball striking now when we go to the short game stuff Grio has been atrocious here but he’s been Elite ball striking specifically at ball
At Bay Hill there’s Rory Hadi four for five don’t count out Hideki although I’m not nearly as high on him this week as I was at the Genesis very rarely do you get Hideki putting positively at a at a course so uh he’s played well here but
You see this is generally what what you get from hii good ball striking and bad putting so I’m not as high on Hideki this week as I was for the Genesis uh kittama only one time kly now spe two for two average finish inside the top
Five here been very good once he got off the tea and he’s not been terrible off the tea by any means uh Z tus good with the irons Chris Kirk four for four Chris K’s been very good here as well uh there’s Windam Clark he’s been
Okay with the irons but this is why I was a little concerned with Windam Clark Tony um for as much as he’s an off the tea kind of Base player he’s been really bad off the tea here so either something just doesn’t suit his eye or he’s just
Not used to Bay Hill he’s just not been very good here and this is an important factor um cuz I want want to show you some of the research around some previous winners here at Bay Hill and how important it is to have some sustained success so here’s a look at
Your top iron players in at Bay Hill the past five years Putters that way your top Putters again kittama 5.6 it’s only one year you don’t expect him to gain five every time Xander putt great here sunjay has putt amazing here now I was really high on
Him last week and he missed the cut so you know this is another example of do you want to back the form or do you want to back the course history uh that’s something we’ll have to think about cuz you know he had played the Honda very
Well or the coniss classic very well he missed the cut is he going to miss the cut this week cuz he’s in bad form I don’t know but he’s he’s been fantastic at Bay Hill the past 5 years Burns you would expect it’s Bermuda he’s going to
Putt very well on Bermuda but he’s been pretty hit and miss um a lot of myths actually around Bay Hill Fitzpatrick’s been great English you mentioned Harris English has popped a lot four for four average finish just outside the top 25 he’s been very good with with putting
Here um mentioned AIS English earlier Tony is what I meant to say spe bazen hoot McCarthy all World putter Kirk and Brenan Todd again putting well here Rogers has putt well here H Rory so um I do want to look at good drive’s gain I’m I’m just going to be I’m going to
Be um stubborn I think it’s a good drives gained uh kittama gosh dang it Kama can’t l so there’s Grio again B on English J day only two for two but average finish at 21st Rory AI he just has to he has to putt Matt Fitzpatrick hopefully I didn’t get a
Whole lot right with cogniz but hopefully you stayed away from Cory Connor I know he made the cut but it was a pretty disappointing weekend for him I just didn’t want anything to do with him so you were going to gain a whole lot of of Leverage and win Equity or whatnot on
Your um fellow contestants in DFS if you were willing to fade Cory Connor it would ended up being the right decision furus sunj again we’re going to skip the scoring just going to go straight into the par 3es of 225 200 to 225 boy Fitz looked good this week yeah
I mean he played well uh I was surprised that he actually ended up not ended up ending up in the top 20 but um I I’m going to be backing him again this week like when courses are tough when you have to grind out pars Fitz is generally
Really really good and his ball striking gotten worlds better uh yeah I just I just really like fits in these difficult um difficult courses your top players um at Par 3 200 225 specifically at Bay Hill the past five years look kittama leading the way and use your defending
Champ Ben H’s played them well Victor excuse me Victor havins played them well speed Chris Kirk now SE straa has been very good at these links the par 3s but he has nothing to show for it because you can see just slightly he is orange everywhere
Else but he’s been good at these par 3es um see elsewhere like Min woi a lot lot of people are backing Min W Le this week after his runnerup performance I understand it but in the two tries he’s had here at Bay Hill he’s been really
Bad so be aware of that I’m actually going to be a little bit cold on when we leave this week a little bit of foreshadowing there’s shank and hom Rory looking at par yeah let’s do no let’s just go to par FES and then the
200 plus because I do want to share some of that research with you all your best par five performers from 550 to 600 again can’t Oar only one time spe came young Scotty Chef you’re a winner two years ago morawa has been okay zalot torus Rory Keegan
Hadi maxom Scott not too bad either sunj all right lastly in terms of the early look file let’s take a look at your top performers the the past 5 years at 200 plus proximity specifically at Bay Hill again only one time but kittama
So he led 200 plus he led in the par 3es 200 to 225 so small sample size but he played them well he won that’s why I think they’re going to have a big factor who’s going to play him well this week Keegan third in 200 plus proximity here at Bay
Hill Victor hins fourth Wills Al Torres has been good here now Cam Davis has been very good at the 200 pluses but but has been bad here like SE straa and uh and the par 3s good performance in the individual statistic bad overall Grio Rory
Maxom so on down there your top 200 plus performers okay we’re going to end the show off I do want to share with you all some very very important stuff uh that I have found gosh dang it I wanted to sort it the other way um I
Tried to put this over on X uh but with only 140 characters or whatever it is it’s hard for me to fit all of that in uh in that little space so let’s start with what I call the winter Matrix this is performance year-over-year of Champions
At Bay Hill so going all the way back to 2012 which is the first year that fantasy National has has data in there for Tiger Woods was your two-time winner in 2012 and 2013 he had a top 25 the year before he wins even Matt Evy
Two-time winner had a top 25 had some success here you look at jayday top 20 top 25 top 25 Mark Lehman winner in 2017 he had a top 20 he had a top five several years back no one has missed a cut your winner has not missed a cut
Previously since Mark Lehman in 2015 it is there is a lot to be said about prior performance at Bay now Kurt kyama is the exception he had never played Bay Hill before and then wins last year I am going to treat that as the exception not a new pattern so a
Lot of what I’ve been looking at I’ve been looking at at players who have had sustained success year overy year at Bay Hill again you can have some Clunkers toh hatan you can have some midle finishes like Bryson but you have had to have had an amount of success and
Sustained success year over year um for for a few years two to three or even four years here that is why the course value portion of my rankings are going to be heavily weighted this week Bay Hill is one of the most predictive courses on the PGA tour so again if you
Haven’t made any Wagers or or if you still have some budget to to spare and especially in DFS I’m going to be looking at guys who have historically played Bay Hill well so that’ll include players like Keegan probably won’t include players like wendam Clark um it’s just a pretty big big uh big
Factor something else that I want to share with you all and this was not put in at all over on uh social media I just didn’t have the characters for it I want you to take a notice of the players who or the Champions when they played the Honda when they played the
Honda and this is going to be important this is Strokes game putting right here when they played the Honda look look at their performance on The Greens at the Honda even if they didn’t play well you know in 2018 who was our winner in 2018 it was before Lee or it was
Right after leechman so Rory Rory in 2018 wins the Arnold Palmer he didn’t play particularly well at the Honda but he putt well Lehman was a monster on The Greens at the Honda 2015 Matt ay very good on those greens Honda great on those greens tiger good
Tiger great if a player has played or played the Honda then came and played the Arnold Palmer they’re in a big significant Advantage because both of those courses have Tiff Eagle Bermuda so I’m going to end the show off tonight let’s take a look at the performance at the um at the cognizant
Classic this past week uh van royan was there Let’s find let’s look at some of these players who are playing this week and how they did putting so Austin ekro putt extremely well sorry there you go mro putt extremely well yeah that’s going to be too much
Sorry Min Le was slightly positive EG royan was a monster on those greens Shane Lowry very good someone else to think about cam young putw um Jake nap okay all right um let’s see Ben on okay somebody somebody to maybe be a little bit cautious about
Rory Rory didn’t putt well at all now yes putting is fickle it can be good one week and bad the next but we just saw over in in Microsoft XL if a player played the Honda they generally putt exceptionally well gosh dang it they generally putt exceptionally well that week before
Playing the Arnold Palmer so be on the lookout for players who who played the cognizant classic if they’re back at it at Bay Hill take a look at the players at pwell Matty Fitz again it’s another reason why I’m really high on Matty fits again Chris Kirk didn’t putt well Pavone putt
Well take a you know take a look long look at at Pavone uh Henley put lights out at PJ National Ricky putt pretty well so be on the lookout for those for those types of players if they play if they played this past week you want to
Make sure they’re in good putting form you want to make sure they’re in good putting form but that’s what I have for you all this evening thanks to Tony and Darnell for jumping into chat much appreciated um hopefully we’re going to get back on the winning ways here uh
With some Wagers and some DFS and thanks to everyone else out there who Tunes in watches listens and supports the channel by liking the videos commenting and subscribing it really helps me out a lot uh with you all doing that um I ask that you consider uh doing that if you
Haven’t already um and a reminder that this is a double tournament week so tomorrow will be the Puerto Rico full show we’re going to do our research our data dive and our DFS allinone show for the Puerto Rico that’ll be tomorrow night at 9:00 p.m. so make sure you mark
Your reminders and your calendar for that uh but thanks to everyone for supporting the channel I love doing what I do taking an in-depth look at sports statistics um giving you a statistician and data analyst view of what he sees trying to help us all win a little bit
Of money in the process so for all the Wagers you’ve made so far this week for the Arnold Palmer for all the Wagers you’re thinking about making this week for theal Palmer and until I see you tomorrow night for the Puerto Rico open may all your bests be profitable
