Arnold Palmer Invitational | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data – DFS Golf & DraftKings

The TOUR heads to Bay Hill Golf Course in Bay Hill, Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!

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SHOW INDEX
0:00 Intro
1:00 Course Preview
6:54 10K Range
13:36 9K Range
23:15 8K Range
26:44 7K Range
31:46 6K Range
35:23 Custom Model
38:05 Outro
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What’s up guys Rick here with your preview for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational clearly if you’re watching the video version of this show I’m not at home I’m on the road so hopefully the sound and the quality of everything uh is still okay if if you are wondering

Like what what do you mean just just watching it yeah all of these are ripped uh to podcasts every single episode anywhere you can get podcasts there’s always a links in the description I never really talk about it that’s on me search 300 yards to unknown search Rick run good

And you’ll be able to find it if you are much more of an audio person uh okay we’ve got the signature event this week we are going to also have the Puerto Rico open there’s also like five other events in the world of golf so there’s

Just a ton going on this week we’re going to spend a lot of time on the live chat on Wednesday 3 p.m. Eastern Rick rungood YouTube channel covering all of that for right now let’s dive deeper into this field this golf course and everything we need to know for the API

Okay here’s the course key stats page on rickun good.com this is my website basically everything you see from here on out will be from my website Rick rungood we’ve got the golfer profiles the Holy Grail cheat sheet all that fun stuff you’ll you’ll see it all here Bay

Hill some of the stickiest course history because we’ve played it um you know every year for decades it is uh in theory a challenging course although we did say that about PGA National although we did have an idea that PGA National was going to play a little bit easier in

24 than it had in previous years and if you look at the key stats for this week correlated stats the big boys Strokes gained approach is going to knock your socks off right it’s ninth which means there’s only eight other courses in which Strokes gained approach is more

Important than here at Bay Hill the fact that you get a week where Strokes gained approach ranks highly is noteworthy because it always it always values highly which are two different things and then if you look at all of the course key or all of the correlated

Stats even those that are not uh super sticky even those that are pretty wonky what do you see Strokes gained approach approaches from 50 to 175 Club head speed approaches from over 200 approaches from 225 to 250 approaches from 250 to 275 driving distance par five scoring boom that was like the

First eight or nine that are either all approach or power metrics right distance off the T Club head speed the idea of being able to correlate Club head speed to success at Bay Hill is from thick rough right you’re you’re not only hitting long shots into greens but if

You’re playing out of thick rough those shots become more difficult and it’s you’re not going to get the similar level of run out those shots are going to be even longer so so it makes sense so we’re looking for uh distance off the T we’re looking for great approach play

Of course we’ll throw course history history in the mix as well when you do those metrics over the last 36 rounds for everybody in this field Adam Scott gets the biggest boost we we’ll talk a lot about Adam Scott he is uh trending in the right direction his metrics look

Great I actually think if you want to go and fire and Adam Scott Masters BET right now I’d have to look up what the odds are but I was looking a couple weeks ago and they were they were pretty long I think it’s now is probably the

Time um because if he gets hot If he if he wins this if he continues to play well continues to play well with the players um I don’t I don’t know what numbers you’re going to see on Adam Scott uh Victor havind is second he’s had success here don’t confuse course

Fit and course history they do not matter on this adjusted fit uh calculation Scotty Sheffer Rory mroy Xander Schley and then speaking of guys with no course history but just a great course fit ludvig oberg $99,500 gets uh about a stroke per round of adjustment based on the stats that we’ve seen from

Him over the last 36 lot lots of penalties here for missing the Fairway uh lots of rewards for driving it long so this is every part four and every part five on the course broken down by how often those Fairways are hit what the average drives are and then you’ll see significant

Penalties basically a third to a half shot penalty on every hole that you miss the Fairway on that is sizable and then if you do hit what is what I call a long drive which is a drive that’s just longer than average on that hole the

Reward goes up on every hole and then you get um you know four or five holes that like are a quarter of a stroke or a third of a stroke more so again this is you know you’re looking at all the data you can you wouldn’t have to see Bay

Hill at all you could look at all the data and you could say okay this is clearly going to benefit somebody who can hit it far can keep it in play uh can keep it in the Fairway and then can hit hit their long iron as well can hit

Their approach as well and then if you look at the golf course you’d also look at the rough youd look at the Fairway you look you’d look at the yardages and you’d say this is a golf course that rewards distance this is a golf course that is going to reward those that can

Hit their long irons really well so um no surprise there when you do look at the approach buckets what do you see you know those those bottom three 150 175 175 to 200 200 and plus that’s where the majority of these approach shots are coming from this is not a wedge Fest

It’s never been a wedge Fest um and then you can if you want to tap it off with a little bit of uh the putting boost you’ll see that you get a larger percentage of Birdie opportunities uh whether they are made or not from 16 to 26 feet Which is higher than tour

Average 27 to 36 ft also higher than tour average we’re lower than tour average on shorter putts what does that say uh the way to interpret that is because we’re hitting longer irons in uh you are not getting as close you’re not getting guys who are throwing a bunch of

Darts like other PGA Tour courses it’s not going to be a wedge Fest so not everybody’s hitting it to to 15 feet regularly you’re getting a lot more approaches that are settling farther away from the whole locations and that’s where those birdie opportunities are coming so you take the uh the frequency

In which you think that is going to happen how good each golfer is from those putting ranges and you can give a putting boost to specific golfers and uh the top four here are uh sander shley Eric Cole Tommy Fleetwood Max hom I left out Matthew Pavone he’s fifth he does

Have a much smaller sample size than everybody else because we’re now just starting to get a lot more whole by hole data for Pavone as he has been uh playing here on on the PGA tour the last couple of weeks and then Sam Burns is the fifth guy that gets that that

Putting boost uh who has a a a significant enough sample size the cheat sheet here and you’ll see I mean this is a full week we’ve got two events on the PGA tour a year European Tour event a corn fairy Tour event a live golf event a Senior Tour event that’s six six

Events uh all of them supported on Rick run good you’ve got the two Puerto Rico open and the Arnold Palmer Invitational underneath PGA I’ll obviously um as of me recording this the Puerto Rico open uh salaries are not out yet so when that happens I will uh plug all of those in

But we’ll we’ll work with API for right now and three golfers over 10,000 bucks Scotty sheffer’s 113 Roy m is 106 Patrick Klay is $10,000 I don’t think I have anything super noteworthy or super interesting or super different to say about Scotty sheffler um anytime that there is an

Emphasis on TAA green play anytime that there is a reward for being long and accurate off the tea he is going to get a really good boost um you know he finished T10 at Riviera losing four strokes putting it it’s it’s ugly stuff on the putting surfaces it it it truly

Is I do want to pull up his Arnold Palmer Invitational because I know he’s putted well here at least yeah when he won this in 2022 he gained 4.2 Strokes putting he was a zero last year actually it’s closer to a minus one last year and

He finished T4 uh back in 2020 was the the third the third time he played it he lost nearly five Strokes putting and finished T15 so the Baseline especially now in a even smaller field than normal um th this Baseline for Scotty is uh incredibly High he’s he’s not this is

This is one of those um it’s a signature event with a cut right so it’s similar to what we saw at the um at Riviera after for the Genesis Invitational it’s this event Riviera and also Jack tournament the memorial which are going to run this top 50 and ties plus anybody

Within 10 shots of the cut as the cut line so it’s very likely that Scotty sheffler makes the cut and if if you get him four almost guaranteed rounds um he’s he’s he’s likely to have a lot of success and finish inside the top 10 and

If he putts to a plus one he probably wins the golf tournament I don’t think I have all that much to say about Scotty what I’m more interested in in finding out is what the industry does with these three Rory mroy is like that dude at Bay

Hill right so if you haven’t seen it yet on the Holy Grail I added a new tab just to make this easy for one and done and research and everything else called course horses and you can go through this and you can load any field any

Number of years any golfer or any course so if you just want to see Rory maoy across all the courses you could just load that if you want to see this week for example Bay Hill um you could do that and and golfers who have a large

Enough sample size so Rory’s got a 36 round sample size at Bay Hill he’s gaining 2.36 Strokes per round it is a monster number um to do it especially in that many rounds Scotty Sheffer is better he’s only done it in 12 rounds Jordan spe is better eight rounds Kurt

Kyama better four rounds okay so so you’re talking about uh three times as many rounds for Rory as as Scotty and still putting up an elite level of of um play if you get rid of Bay Hill in general and just do Rory mroy and look

At where he has had his best success of any place where he’s played um let’s call it 30 times so Quail Hollow he’s crushed 2.6 stra per round over 42 rounds you’ve got uh Shan International that’s an event that doesn’t even exist anymore that’s the old WGC HSBC um 2.46

Over 32 and then it’s Bay Hill so you’re talking about an elite golfer getting um one of the best spots for him and actually a top two spot especially of places that that are currently on the schedule where you could roll them out so I I imagine you’re going to get a lot

Of Rory one and done I think that’s fair you’re going to get Rory well I don’t know we’re going to see what that’s that’s kind of what what started this conversation is what are we going to do with KL what are we going to do with

Scotty and what are we going to do with Rory and where does the ownership start breaking down uh Rory’s last three have not been good by mroy standards uh driving it unbelievable you know don’t get lost in the fact that uh over Riviera and the cognizant he gained over

11 Strokes off the T the sentiment around Rory was that he did not hit his approaches very well at I almost called it the Honda again at the cognizant that is not particularly true he gained two strokes on approach and he gained round two round three round four so I think

That is I saw that a lot I heard it on the broadcast a couple times sure maybe when they were showing him he had a subpar shot or two but that that is not what the data says over the course of 72 holes where he really struggled was was

The putter at spec specifically on the weekend um lost four strokes putting there on the weekend now going to a golf course where you know I’m I’m going to assume and I don’t have to assume we’re going to pull it up that he’s got a lot

Of great putting numbers and he does you know he has never lost more than 1.2 Strokes putting over four rounds at Bay Hill routinely gaining with the putter bunch of top 10 the victory in in in 18 all that fun stuff so I’ll be interested to see if people would rather go with

Scotty who’s coming off some better finishes and has great history or Rory who’s coming off some subpar finishes who has a history I’m happy to go to Rory here and it might leave Klay as the odd man out of this conversation and what I saw from him um at at Riviera

Outside of you know a pretty sour weekend the the first two rounds at a world class Golf Course were I I think nearly flawless I he was so good he finished t11 at at Pebble if you want to pull up his Bay Hill stuff oh oops I almost clicked Pebble there

Arnold Palmer Invitational uh he’s only played here once played here last year finished T4 gained as you would expect you know uh very good from TAA green little bit of a loser with the putter no problems there he is um when you can kind of guarantee him for Rounds when you can

Get him in some of these bigger smaller field events that that’s when Klay really starts to shine and I’m wondering about the distribution of ownership and how that breaks out the top because if if if is going to come in at you know 14% or something like that um we’ll just

Fire him up basically everywhere okay so here’s the 9k range and you know sentiment around these golfers changes so so quickly and Victor havin I think if if this was if this event was January 1st or or even uh more recent than that would have been one of the most popular

Golfers this week you know he had the runner-up finish in 2022 he finished 10th year last year I don’t think he’s ever missed the cut and now um I don’t think he’s as going to be as popular you know 2024 has been okay for him it hasn’t started out very well he

Doesn’t have a top 15 his best finish was at Riviera t19 I will say this when I when I spoke with him at um at Riviera I I thought I got the sense that he was close right he he obviously took some time off was continuing to work through

Some things in his game I thought he was close the remarks that he said to me I thought were were very positive and and he was getting excited about where his game was going and the stats kind of backed that up right 1.6 Strokes on approach over 4

Days at Riviera U which snapped a streak of losing on approach that’s what I think is really important here because that was a um from hero to Pebble Beach was was very very uncharacteristic for him to lose that many strokes on approach uh that that frequently and in

Succession so if we are starting to get the uh the the trend going up and to the right here on on Victor that would make a lot of sense and I think this is not opportunity to kind of I don’t want to say be early cuz I don’t I don’t think

It’s he’s going to be like 6% owned I don’t think any I think people are going to still enjoy playing Victor this week and using him in one and done scenarios but I I think that this is a pretty good spot to NAB him when you have Xander

Schley lud VI oberg Jordan SP um Justin Thomas in this range right that the bottom of this 9k range and and even until the top of the 8K range I I believe is criminally underpriced we’ll talk about that in a second but there’s just so many good options here you know spe’s uh

DQ last week at or uh I guess it was a couple weeks ago at at Riviera does not tell the whole story obviously you know he was in T20 going into the weekend if he moves up and finish you know let’s say just finishes top 10 I mean we’re

Foaming at the mouth to get Jordan spe here so what I what I really like to do is go look at some of the more recent um Let’s do let’s do the Power Rankings here last 12 rounds for everybody in this field I don’t know what this is

Going to show for Jordan spe I imagine it’s going to show pretty well let’s let this load here SP is okay he is 16th he’s getting 1.28 Strokes per round over those last 12 rounds so again that that does go back um you know he gets a knock

By seeing a DQ next to his name so if you’re only looking at finishes you’re not getting the whole story and then this does take into account the fact that he was playing well when he when he did get when he did get DED I’m certainly going to have my fair share of

Of of ludvig because this seems like one of the best courses for him and he’s even found success on golf courses that are not good for him but the bottom of this range specifically hom um I could even be convinced of K morawa uh but Justin Thomas and then even into the 8K

Range for will Z tus that is where I’m hoping to get a lot of uh a lot of ownership this is a pretty sticky course when it comes to course history you see a lot of guys who have good uh starts year-over-year and we talk a lot about

The guys like Rory we talk a lot about the guys like um spe and Victor and Scotty sheffler and not as much conversation around what Max hom has done in his four trips never finished worse than 24th has a 24th 10th 17th 14th that’s four years in a row in the

Last two he lost what is that four strokes putting and was and gained 18 Strokes ball striking um and now you look at what he’s been up to recently and besides the blemish in Phoenix which you know I I think I think I don’t care a lot about

What you did at Pebble what you’ve done what you did at Phoenix this year just with the way that everything shook out um he gets back on track and finishes t16 at Riviera and we’re putting together a profile of uh you know Riviera Tory Pines couple golf courses you know obviously very different

Um but ask you to hit a lot of long irons this is a golf course that asks you to hit a lot of long irons uh Max hom has just like that second tier course history that I think people are are going to overlook because they’re

Able to go get Elite course history um I want to pull up more cow’s profile here really quickly because he has been a little bit of an enigma uh it just seems that we can’t get four really good rounds out of him um you know we got a

Great Sunday at Riv but you know Friday and sat kind of played himself out of it and Pebble Beach was was fine maybe one more round he moves up into the top 10 misses the cut at Farmers that was pretty ugly um but before that he was he

Was on a roll so what I really want to do is I want to look at some of his metrics here you know he’s he’s pretty decent from the longer you know he he does not really whether it’s a wedge a a short iron a mid iron a long iron um he

He is one of the best players in the world he keeps the ball in play he’s going to find a lot of Fairways this week the problem is um if he so so the path for him is a bit more narrow because if he does start whiffing if he

Does start missing Fairways he’s going to be in a lot of trouble doesn’t possess the club head speed doesn’t possess the power he will put himself behind the eightball but I I like the way that there is uh obviously a very clear path for him to the top of the

Board and that’s and and and I think that okay some guys like Rory mroy like uh Scotty sheffler they you got like nine different ways to get to the top of the board right if if I drive it well great if I don’t I’ll be an elite

Approach player if if I don’t hit a lot of greens I’ve got one of the best short games in the world speaking about Scotty specifically um the morawa fewer paths to Victory I think is then Illustrated in his finishes t64 T9 missed cut it’s it’s kind of all over the place because

You’re asking uh kind of an exact situation to happen or at least a a closer to an exact situation for him to happen if something goes wrong it’s not as easy for him to rebound so I think he’s a bit u a bit more volatile and a

Bit more risky but if you’re looking for that that is available to you and then finally Justin Thomas before we get to will salour in the akk range um coming off the miscut at Riv horrible ugly everything went wrong I I I’m not even going to opine whether it was playing

With tiger whether what I don’t know I have no idea but what I do know is he did look anything like himself um this was the first time he lost Strokes on approach since the Windom um and we know since the Windom Championship he’s been phenomenal uh first time he lost from T

To Green since then I mean if if I exclude the Ryder Cup as well which is obviously wonky Strokes gain data but um it does exist I mean this is just to me this that looks like an outlier I’m I’m willing to be convinced that he is the

Golfer that we saw for basically eight straight events uh and not the one that we saw for the last one which might have been a little bit of a circus might have just been an off an off couple of a couple of days for him but man it was

Truly horrendous I want to see what his putting numbers at Bay Hill are historically and just see if there’s anything to write home about so he played in 15 which we don’t really care about this result good or bad he finished t-49 lost three Strokes putting gained gained five ball striking gained

Six ball striking last year great sign there and was a small negative with the putter okay I can I can live with all of that um hoping that people don’t op for JT at the bottom of this board as we get into the 8K range couple of quick items

The two contests that are running on Splash right now will be linked into the description we’ve got the guaranteed tiers uh contest which is $20 entry you pick one golfer from each of six tiers and all that money is guaranteed the guys at Splash have been very very good

About that and then for the first time ever we’re doing the players and Majors three and done so five events um you’re going to end up picking three golfers a week so that’s 15 golfers in total it is $500 uh which I have talked about

Getting a smaller Buy in I don’t know if that’s going to happen but um this is what we thought was a a good entry point so if we fill this thing 460 people first place is going to be 25 Grand second place going to be 20 it’s a very

Flat payout structure which is what I wanted 50 people out of 464 will be paid and then also um there are segments each tournament in its own right is a segment so first second and third for just the players and just each one of the four majors uh

Will also be paid even if you don’t uh finish in the overall in the overall uh payouts this is legal fully regulated all that stuff in I believe it’s 40 States plus DC so go click the link in the description see if your state um

Fits and I think we’re going to get a real strong push here over the next couple weeks because this is going to start next week at the players at the Players Championship if you want to know about my rankings those are up rickun good.com bestall completely free you can

Go check those out who’s in what major championships what their stats look like all that fun stuff everything will be linked in the description as well the akk range I think has a ton of value in it you know I’ve I’ve been very bullish on wial tus not only um in in season

Long best ball uh in in weekly contest I’ve been I’ve been betting him quite a bit I’m just I mean this is it this is this is him being back right I I thought um I couldn’t believe he didn’t win it riff right I just thought I just thought

It looked so so good coming in he was playing so well he ended up finishing T2 I’m obviously not going to um be upset about that but look at this profile so farmers t113 where he gains across the board Riviera T2 which he gains across the board both of those courses ask you

To hit a lot of long irons will Alor separates himself with his ball striking with his T to Green play with with like all of that stuff this is this is such a good spot for him and um maybe I’ll have to do this in my newsletter this week

Rickun good.com newsletter like I I want to just pull who are the best players when you know 25% of the approach shots come from over 200 yards something like that and and I I would imagine zalatoris is on that short list because you think about the I mean he’s multiple years of

Success at Tory he’s had multiple years of success at Riviera I think he’s I think he’s about set for uh making a really good really good run at this one and then I’m almost ready to declare it I think cam young might be back right you know this was a an

Extended drought or I don’t want to call it a drought a slump basically his entire sophomore year wins Rookie of the Year doesn’t play well in 2023 look at what we’re getting now and this goes back to Dubai so so if rickun good.com again six tours I’ve Got The Strokes

Game metrics from the European tour I’ve got the live data loaded in so when you’re getting ready for your major championship stuff got those guys all good this goes back to Dubai when he should have won in January um and then even in weeks where he has struggled the

70th at Pebble drives it so well then he starts to figure it out at Phoenix T8 t16 at Riv T4 last year this is him putting it all together and then of course you look at what he has done at this event which should be one of the

Better course fits for him he’s played it twice each of the last two years 10th and 13th this is I think criminally underpriced for cam young um really really good profile good course fit good course history good recent form even some other guys in this range that could

Take ownership from him like Matt Fitzpatrick who’s been nutty good here like this is I just think this this is a cam young smash spot as they would say there’s a mild level of interest on Windam Clark he is fairly volatile um when he plays his best this could be a

Good spot for him hits it a mile great in club head speed can get really hot can win big time events with with deep Fields I am cautious there because he could he is you know just as likely to miss the cut as he is to to play well

And we we’ve seen that with a really it’s a really bad run at Riviera he didn’t play particularly well in Phoenix I I think that this is um a little bit of a a hope in a prayer but if you’re going to Hope in a prayer on guy in in

The 8K range I think you could do do much worse than that the 7K range and by the way we are back to the standard pricing which is just stops you at um 6K here I am loving Matthew Pavone okay so he was in the mix again in

Florida last week at the cognizant ended up finishing T8 I cannot remember I’ll have to go look did he finish his final round on Monday I want to say he did but don’t quote me on that so so he’s play plays great the farmers wins that plays great at Pebble Beach finishes third

Plays great at this event until the suspensions until you know things until things get wacky right he was a zero in on Saturday or in round three and then he lost a stroke and a half or 1.2 on Sunday so when things got out of whack out of schedule that’s when he struggled

Do I am I going to kill him for that I don’t know probably not um but now you still have a golfer who has played five times on the PGA tour this year in 2024 three of them are top sevens and a he was in the top 10 with I don’t know how

Many holes to go at the cognizant that’s just his PGA Tour stuff you go back five or six more stars s on the European tour you find another win you find four more top 15s like we have to start taking him seriously at some point don’t we I think

I think I think we do and that point feels like right now Jak knap proved me wrong last week right Mexico was a perfect spot for him he won I did not think that PJ National was a great spot for him he finished T4 I was impressed

With his ability to keep the golf course in front of him gear down when required he still puted beautifully I mean his his stat profile from Honda I just did it PJ National was nearly identical nearly identical to what he did in Mexico he of he flushed it a little bit

More in Mexico but he gained 7.3 Strokes ball striking last week that that’s just an that’s an insane it’s an insane number so now he goes to a golf course that should be better for should feel a lot like Pebble uh Tory to him long shots in club head

Speed thick rough let’s go T3 there by the way so I I I got him wrong last week I think this is time to get to get back on I want to Deep dive into Adam Scott I mentioned maybe firing a a master’s future on him here and if you go to the

Power rankings and look at just the last TW uh 36 rounds for every golfer in this field um minimum of 24 rounds minw Le so this is across all tour so so there’s some bumps being made here for minwu and other guys as well but Min Min wo Lee is

Number one Adam Scott is number two he’s gaining 1.88 Strokes per round uh saw m Riv plays he always plays well and did so is did so again t19 Phoenix T8 Pebble T20 three straight top seven finishes on the European tour this is I mean he’s he’s he’s playing the

Best golf that he has played in a pretty long time he’s played at this event a ton it’s been a little bit of a mixb best finish was 2014 he finished third he’s got a top 12 a top 15 finish in 2016 made the cut each of of the last

Two years it’s it hasn’t always been great the thing that he always does well is he drives it well um now his approach play has struggled each of the last four years well guess what uh he has cleaned that up significantly cuz he has not lost a stroke or more on approach since

Laccc when he missed the cut US Open last year so so the thing that he has struggled with at Bay Hill in recent years is not an issue right now I I just think this is such a darn good spot for him let’s do our quick Ricky Fowler

Check-in because I did get a lot of questions on him in the live chat last week specifically like hey is is pick on Rick over are we done with that no I don’t think I think we are you know t35 at Riv the putter I I’ll give him credit

This is a good sign after hemorrhaging with the putter which is really bad to see for Ricky since his win uh he’s gained five Strokes putting in his last two starts good sign so I do not think it is a total disaster anymore I just think it’s like a medium disaster and I

Want to see the rest of his game start to come back uh history around here nothing to write home about a lot of t18 to t52 finishes nothing super special if he was going to check in at I don’t know 7% I’d be interested but but

Outside of that uh it it is it is still it is still pick on Rick time okay the 6K range so um the late ads to this field so Allon ekro with the win at the cognizant he is in I believe the other late guys were EVR Eric Van royan and

Minu Lee both off of runner-up finishes got them into this event May might have already been in it I don’t I don’t remember um but they’re they’re pretty decent options so so couple of things here um minwu has historically played well on difficult golf courses and Big

Time Fields big time events he has struggled here missed the cut each for his last two years I don’t think I particularly care about that Eric Van royan is a little interesting and I think I’m starting to become a Believer a little bit here um since the win in Mexico what was that

Myoba at the end of last year right yeah so we’re seeing a really profound Improvement in both ball striking and putting which by the way you put those together and you get a B bunch of top 25 finishes and top 10 which is exactly what he’s done TA in Mexico at the

Mexico open two starts ago runnerup finish last week in uh at at Honda and now he goes to uh Bay Hill so we’ve got you know it’s really hard to argue this profile it looks nothing like what he did in 2023 he’s clearly found something he’s clear clearly found a lot of

Improvement so I don’t even really care about what he’s done at this event because I I think that this is a different type of golfer but I’ll pull it up anyway played here in 2022 missed the cut played here in 2021 t-57 Noe I don’t think anybody cares about either

One of those but we we we again have to start taking EVR seriously at $6,600 especially around some of these other guys that um are just kind of playing to their base like I I bet if I go in here yeah so last 36 rounds in the trends

Tool Eric Van royan is playing a stroke over his 100 round Baseline that’s like a that’s a massive number stroke over his 100 round Baseline it takes him from a a pretty significant losing player to a a A plus point two uh that that’s that’s a significant Improvement it’s

Why you’re seeing some of the success roll in here um if you go to the breakout candidates yeah loves Austin ekro loves Adam senson loves Justin low loves minwu Lee will out Taurus as well you want to be in that upper left-hand quadrant which would be really good you

Don’t want to be in that bottom right hand quadrant oh it’s it’s it hates Cam Davis it hates Matthew Pavone honestly it hates Eric Cole um man Eric Cole burned a lot of people a lot of people last week let’s see what else we’ve got here okay I think

That’s the most exciting stuff in the 6K let’s run a model and see what we can find so here’s the custom model Rick run good.com all right what do we want to do before I forget let’s do Bay Hill course history very very sticky we’re going to put 15 on it we

Are going to do uh we want distance right so we’re going to put 15 on distance we want um actually let’s do a let’s do a a weighted Strokes gain Baseline by the way uh do we need to do weighted Strokes gain because these are guys that most ly

Play yeah let’s do weighted Strokes gain so we’ll put we’ll just put 10 on a weighted Strokes gain total uh Baseline last 36 rounds okay so uh now I want Strokes gained approach last 36 for something big right 25 uh we’ll do 20 and then I’ll do I’ll do some of

The buckets I want approach buckets we’ll do 175 of 200 and 200 225 five for eight each so we have 24 left so we have our distance we have our approach we have our Baseline we have our uh uh course history you know in theory this should

Classify as a long and difficult golf course in theory right um you know we thought last week was going to be hard as well let’s do five on each one of those we’ve got 14 left we’ve done nothing on putting could do bonus putting I do love bonus

Putting we’ve got nothing around the green we’ve got nothing on our Strokes gain distribution we’ve got nothing on fantasy scoring or implied odds or anything like that let’s do six on bogey avoidance and then let’s do um four and four on like high upside golfer so plus uh how often they gain

Four or more Strokes how often they gain five or more Strokes my number one golfer to probably the surprise of no one is Scotty sheffler Victor is two ludvig is three Colin is four that’s that’s a coup right there right you’ve got three guys in the 9k ranking two

Three and four before you get back to a guy in the 10K range which is Patrick Canley I’ll Zoom zoom in see if you guys can see this a little bit better I’m on my laptop so it’s kind of weird um sixth is Cam young $8,700 ranked sixth for me

Xander is seven JT is eight ahead of Rory at nine then look at this Adam Scott 10 will zuris 11 Jordan spe 12 so that’s 7500 8,900 9400 guo gets a big jump here 15th at 6,900 Justin Rose 68007 those are big jumps guys that get

Knocks H all the way down to 26 that 9200 Sam Burns 30th at 93 that’s tough sahith 8100 33rd yikes Russell Henley 48th at 8,000 Windam Clark 8,500 at 56 okay interesting let me save this so this will be 2024 Monday AP just in case we want to review

This later um but we will continue this conversation along with Puerto Rico lives in Hong Kong for the first time European Tour event corn fairy Tour event I’ll load in all the salaries as we as we get rocking and rolling do me a favor hit the like button make sure

You’re subscribed it helps the channel in a big way um but that’ll that’ll do it best of luck guys talk to you soon