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Hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 cognizant classic DFS tactic show we have a fun show uh for you up to the minute forecast up to the minute projected ownerships uh so a lot of great information to finalize and optimize your DFS lineups for the cognizant
Classic I’m excited I don’t want to waste any more time let’s get into it shall we all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money it’s going to make you a much smarter
Golf Gambler and a much better golf DFS player go check out fantasy national.com you won’t regret it in the description to the video there are links to all of the social media first off my X and Instagram where I post research weekly around or on the PGA tour generally
Around previous winners uh patterns of previous winners some course info uh that comes out every Monday after afternoon uh for the tournament of the week so if you want to see the weekly research that I do for the PJ tour then give me a follow over at your preferred
Social media site X is also where I place my betting cards and my top player usage uh for the week’s tournament in DFS that’ll come out later on this evening after the DFS tactics show so if you want to see both of those pieces of information give me a follow over at X
And then lastly um for social media gab’s handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a great way to start your week of preparation and throughout the week he updates you with his own form or version of recent form course history
And if you are a subscriber to his article you’re going to be able to join us every Wednesday after calls calls in the DFS tactic show in his substack chat as he is gracious enough to host me over there and we continue the DFS talk over
There after the show so you don’t want to miss out on that subscribe to his article it is free to do by the way and then lastly we are Live Chat is open want to hear from you all in addition to the poll question which I do have typed
Up uh remember to do that which um so I want to hear from you all in that regard I want to uh hear if of any players that you’ve wagered um who are you focused on in DFS who are you pivoting to fading away from all that good stuff so let’s
Let figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 2024 cognizant classic and we’re going to start as we customarily do on a Wednesday evening updating the windfinder forecast good evening Tony uh good to see you in chat we are going to try and find the optimal
Players to use this week um and would be interested to hear uh how uh your top 20 parlay uh came through um if you wanted to sh if you want to share that who you put in there uh what kind of what kind of odds did you get for that but before
I go into any of that and the windfinder forecast I’m going to take a drink and then we’re going to talk about the poll question very quickly so it seems that DraftKings at least that’s you know where I’m playing over at DraftKings has a new price structure in the sense that
Last week at the me open you had an overwhelming favorite favorite in Tony fenale which made sense to uh bring some of the prices down into the 5Ks well they’ve done that again this week and I don’t know if I would consider Rory an overwhelming favorite I mean he is
Certainly the biggest name here but there are some other big names here at this tournament so I don’t know if this is a just a two-e stretch or if this is a new Norm in terms of pricing but with that in mind mind because of the DraStic
Gap that we have from um premium price or highest price player to the bottom of the barrel my question to the community at least for this week what is the lowest salary range you’re considering playing this week um are you not dropping into the 6ks OR 5Ks or you you no scrubbing
It at all uh um are you in the upper sixes are you in the lower sixes or perhaps are you going into the 5Ks again this week and getting really greedy so would be interested to hear the community uh or hear from the community in that regard um please fill
Out that answer and uh I’ll certainly give my answer um later on in the evening looking at the forecast this has changed slightly from earlier on this evening say you know 5:00 Eastern or so when the last time I looked at it there was a pretty uh significant
Advantage for the Thursday PM when I went um when I stepped away from the computer earlier this evening now I don’t see as much of a of a uh favor now yes you certainly can see that the lowest amount of wind in terms of velocity and gusts and whatnot is still Thursday
Morning but it’s not as pronounced as it was I mean the forecast earlier had uh closer into you know the low teens and mid teens for gusts kind of similar to Friday as we’ll we’ll see here in a second it’s kind of backed off of that
So now I do not see as much of a favor for the Thursday a.m. Friday p.m. half of the draw I will say there is the slightest of slight uh favors there so I would use it in terms of a tiebreaker now I have the luxury of
Being able to stay up late and check tomorrow early on um you know essentially right before tea off um to get the most up to the second forecast I have that luxury if you are able to do that I would highly suggest you do the same that way you have the
Most up to the second information but if this is the last forecast that you are going to be able to have I would give the slightest Edge to the Thursday a.m. Friday p.m. because Friday looks pretty similar for the entirety of the day now you can
Expect a little bit of of an increase in Wind throughout the day that’s generally what just happens is that wind picks up throughout the day um but I don’t see much of a change you know like I don’t see any advantage on Friday at all for either half of the
Draw and only the slightest of favors for the for the Thursday amm again I’m not going to factor it in much at all maybe a ey breaker scenario but you could argue that there is the a very slight Advantage for the Thursday a.m. Friday pm. half of the draw and if
We look or or zoom out and take a look at the weekend Saturday looks like the wind dies down throughout the day but again as I mentioned you kind of expect the wind to pick up throughout the day and Sunday looks pretty solid you know
High of 80 when could pick up in the afternoon but uh for our purposes trying to uh maximize our lineups or optimize our lineups I would give the slightest advantage to the Thursday a.m. half of the draw uh good evening Jay um yeah I I you’re you’re welcome I just I do this
For fun um I appreciate honestly I appreciate you tuning in um because there’s a lot of content out there there’s a lot of great content out there I just appreciate that um you in particular and everyone else that stops in and and stops in chat and Views and
Watches uh takes time out of their day to to listen to what I have to say sometimes I’m right sometimes I’m wrong I’ll own when I’m wrong um but thanks for thanks for tuning in much appreciated um 5900 Novak and ryer is the lowest I have for my lineups yeah
Like I said I I’ll I’ll get into that especially whenever we start making lineups and going through the price board I really do like one of those two players as you’ll see later on this evening Tony all right so there’s a look at the forecast for the cognizant
Classic let’s go ahead and move to Fantasy National do a couple things here really quickly and then get into the mixed condition model and then the meat and potatoes of the show as they say so you see I’ve already got this set for the last two years because there is some
Wind in the forecast for um Friday and Saturday I’ve got the moderate and windy filter selected in moderate and windy conditions our top performers the past 2 years or 36 rounds whichever has come first Rory Cory Connor Denny McCarthy Matt Fitzpatrick Ricky Harry Hall Justin Rose Ben on sunj and Carson young is
Your top 10 moving on down just a little bit Chris Kirk Andrew Novak to your point there um Tony 12th in Wind performance the past couple years Adam shank Kevin Yu Shane Lowry and on down you can see about the top 25 to 30 or so top performers in the win the past
Couple of years the other end of the spectrum players who haven’t played well Robert grias Carl Yuan Kevin kizner Ryan brim EVR which is a little bit surprising I mentioned this I believe it was Monday considering uh he generally plays pretty well in the wind or at least um traditionally
Has um in his career as we can we can see from here so my guess is is it’s this moderate filter that’s that’s bringing him down um but that’s where he is he’s falling in 138 Maddie Schmid Tom hogi Justin low Tyson Alexander and so on down they’re your worst performers in
Moderate and windy conditions the past couple of years the only other filter we’re going to look at just very very quickly difficult to par I understand that the par 410th has been converted to a par five but PJ National is still a brute of a course it is going to show
Its teeth especially when the wind picks up so in rounds that have been difficult to par in the last couple of years top players Rory Matt Fitzpatrick Tom Kim Denny McCarthy Ricky Justin Rose Thomas dietry Justin Su sunjay and Shane Lowry so if you have not finalized your
Lineups yet I would give a pretty pretty decent consideration or or boost to these players that are in the top uh or upper portion of this uh rankings here in terms of uh total performance when it’s difficult I PJ National has traditionally been one of the hardest
Courses on the tour it will be it will play a little bit easier thanks to the to that uh aforementioned conversion of the par 410th but I still think it’s going to play pretty darn difficult all right with that let’s go ahead and move to the mixed condition model that I have
Made for the E or for this week uh of the cognizant classic and I spent quite a bit of time on Monday talking through several metrics and perhaps some filters that I would be using and and um you know changing from last year’s mixed condition model so this is where
I settled I did end up putting 5% in off the tea and I use the filter short courses less than 7200 yes PJ National is less than 7200 it’s not by much it’s going to be playing closer to about 7150 but I you I chose this filter to try and simulate
The um forced layup nature that that a lot of the holes here at PJ National have it’s not a perfect scenario or it’s not a perfect U combination here you know trying to simulate the force layups with the course length it’s the best I can do off of fantasy National so 5% off
The tea and a lot of this came down to the fact that when we removed 5 years ago from the um historical um data collection as I go back five years for each tournament if you remove five year or the the 2019 Honda the offat T really did kind of
Rise in significance and it’s been gaining in importance the past 2 or 3 years but I didn’t want to go overboard with it because you see where I’m mostly focused but but this is a little bit of a change from where I was thinking I was
Going to be Monday night in that show so I do have 5% off the tea on short courses 20% Strokes skin approach we saw all week Sunday Monday how approach is just the most important factor here around PJ National there is water everywhere not to mention there’s water
Off the tea but a lot of these holes are protected by water uh approaching the green uh these greens are big they’re not easy to hit so iron play is Paramount here around PJ National 20% in shkin approach this might be a little bit heavy but I did end up going 10% in
Putting on and you see the filter multiple courses the these this filter is the uh Tiff Eagle Bermuda courses so again just a quick reminder on what those courses are Bay Hill where we’ll be next week for the Arnold Palmer kaaloa Century PJ National of course the
Port Royal has Tiff Eagle Bermuda greens but we don’t get putting data from there because that is a non-continental US tournament it’s the host of the Bermuda championship in the fall uh and then lastly SE Island the host of the RSM so those courses are is
What is making up this this data set so I put 10% structure game putting on Tiff Eagle Bermuda I think that might be a little bit heavy if anything I can understand if you want to take that down to 5% um but I just settled on 10% there
And then you’ll see from the fairways and greens page view in fantasy National I was kind of all over the place and I admitted this Friday or Friday gosh dang it admitted this Monday that I didn’t know where I was going to be going in
This page view I have 5% in good good drives gained when it’s difficult to par I have 5% greens when it’s difficult to par I have 5% sand saves and 5% scrambling when it’s difficult to par so let’s cover these two first this is uh
What I was talking about mostly on uh uh Monday evening good drives and greens uh good drive uh defined in fantasy National terms is a drive that hits the Fairway or the player is still hitting the Green in regulation um even if they miss the Fairway so 5%
When it’s difficult to par um should be fairly U fairly self-explanatory especially since accuracy is such a premium here 5% in Greens these greens even though they’re large are not easy to hit and hitting Greens in regulation especially when a course is difficult generally going to uh rise or help you
Rise among the leaderboard uh just in general let’s talk about these two sand saves this is a pure um Pro I procured this uh metric from Gabe um that’s the nicest way of saying I just copied him and stole it um but he made a very good
Point in his article at the beginning of the week that said um all of you know with all the water on the course professionals are are are just trained uh to bail out away from the water and most of those places at PJ National that
Puts you in the sand so I did not want to use a filter U sand saves difficult or sand saves um even on you know Tiff Eagle Bermuda I just wanted to see who was good with with their sand saves or their sand play that could be a decent little
Factor we didn’t talk about it really at all throughout this week I slightly mentioned it at the end of the show Monday but all the credit to Gabe on this one um from his article uh that comes out every Sunday so 5% in sand saves and then lastly in terms of the
Fairways and greens I do think scrambling is going to be a a decent factor and because I have sand saves and scrambling that’s why you’ll notice that I don’t have anything around the green specific like strok G around the green I have scrambling but I’m using these again
Using the difficult relev to power filter I think the course is going to play difficult and um even though it was such a bad performing metric last year I’m going to go on the basis that last year was a was a bit of an outlier or a bit
Fluky um if it’s not this will be a an incorrect metric and filter combination to use but I don’t want to use scrambling or or around the green um in here or I should say scrambling with the green surface or around the green As the metric because with all the water in
Play and off the te on some of these holes scrambling could come into play right from the start of your hole um so I just feel like scrambling is going to be important I admit that I was really torn on what filter to use with
It I settled on the difficult to par uh this is you know the last 5% of the mixed condition model where I was not as confident good evening P I saw you there but I didn’t want to lose my train of thought um again safea uh safe travels
To Florida if you haven’t already uh play well down there um and hopefully you have uh great success with any lineups that you play this week for for the cognizant classic but enjoy your time uh down there in Florida I mentioned this Monday night that I was surprised at how uh correlating the
Birdies gain were here at uh PJ National now obviously the more important one is the bogey avoidance and I’m always going to try when applicable to match a scoring metric with a scoring filter difficult to par easy to par all that so 10% bogey avoid bogey avoidance but I do
Have 5% in Birdie’s gain when rounds are difficult so I settled on adding that to the mixed condition model this week and then the finalize what we have here 10% in the par 3s I’ve talked all week how par 3s are just going to be a big factor they
Generally are here at PJ National I do have 5% in the specific length of part 3es that play most important we saw that um roughly 60 to 65% of The Strokes gain total in Par 3 is come to this range oh gosh that was not what I wanted you
[ __ ] 5% 10% that’s not what I wanted at all oh well fortunately I’ve already got this saved but 5% in this range 60 to 65% of your Strokes gain total come into this range so that’s why we have we we’re looking at 175 to 200s by themselves as well
Only 5% in par fours and again this is this is where I might be a little light you could you could argue to go 10% in power fours and 5% in the putting and drop this down a little bit but remember with that conversion of the 10th I do
Think par fors are going to lose their importance a little bit since you are losing a par 4 here so I’m a I’m hedging a little bit with that and then finally we saw 90% of The Strokes gain total in par FES at PJ National come to this
Range so we’re just going to look at that range of par five there’s a look at the mixed condition model hopefully I’ve given you some areas where I think I could be weak uh of course no around the green I explained why uh I don’t have any around the green um using these
Metrics here uh I could be a little bit too heavy on putting um you know if a specific range of par 4 matters I could be weak but uh overall I felt felt pretty good about this except again when I got to about that last 5 to 10% or so I wasn’t the
Most confident with what filter to use on scrambling I think I know scrambling is going to be a big factor I wasn’t confident which filter to use um so yeah there’s a look at the mixed condition model that I have this week for the cognizant classic with that
Let’s go ahead and go to Microsoft Excel the reveal of my rankings for this week and I will preface all this by saying that my rankings again are based on three criteria so this will be a reminder if you’re a returning viewer or for your information if you’re a new
Viewer my rankings are based on three criteria the fgc rank which is a straight numerical ranking based on the mixed condition model we just talked about with the metrics the percentages that we have in there course value is an attempt at giving a player a numerical
Value uh based on how well they have played that course in the past five years the lower the number the better hence Eric Cole’s got a very low number low number since he’s only played it once and finished second and of course we are playing DFS we’re trying to find
Unique options so projected ownership also factors in to my rankings and this is projected ownership per fantasy National Gabe again was kind enough to send over his sources um information for uh projected ownership so I have that off to the side over here as well but my rankings for
The cognizant classic go as such I have Eric Cole number one um he is one of the most popular players this week if not the most popular in DFS uh but everything lines up well I mean look he was number one in the analytics he was number one per course
History everything just seems to line up pretty well for Eric Cole number two Shane Lowry number three Sam Ryder Brenan Todd fourth Chris Kirk rounds out my top five Rory hogy Lucas Glover Matt Fitzpatrick and Justin Rose round at my top 10 so let’s talk about the big shock
At least it might be a shock uh to see a 5900 uh priced player not only in the top of my rankings with third uh Todd The Godfather yeah also interesting brenon Todd’s getting helped quite a bit by or both of these players are getting helped you know quite a bit by their
Perceived unique ownership but let’s talk about Sam Ryder I mean he did Ray out seventh in the analytics number two number two in Strokes gain approach and we’ve talked all week how important approach is here at PJ National top 20 and putting on Tiff Eagle Bermuda he has
A couple of bad statistics just a couple off the te on short courses and I don’t think that’s going to hurt him as much since um he’s going to have to take three woods and and irons off a lot of these te’s so I don’t
Think this is going to be as much of an issue as the ranking might say you see he completely devoured just link of par fives now the sand saves are an issue yes the 175 to 200 uh par 3s could be an issue but everything else is pretty darn
Solid especially that number two in approach so I’m going to be using a lot of Sam Ryder that’s kind of the mad scientist play this week foreshadowing um Brendan Todd also um kind of surprising for me because he is not necessarily played uh the Honda well but this is a
Very volatile course with all the water in play so the course value or their their previous history here was given less weight than it normally is since again this is a volatile course so a lot of things going well for Brit and Todd again a good putter on the
Surface I might be a little bit too heavy in the putting but they’re they’re certainly Rising because of that top five in bogey avoidance when it’s difficult and that you know helps with the the putter helps with that absolutely but he is a grinder he will
Grind out his pars just like Sam Ryder he’s not you know very good off the te that’s not his game but he’s generally pretty accurate so I don’t have too much of a concern with that you see that here the good drives gain he’s either hitting
The fairways or he’s he’s not so Wayward that he can’t hit the green it’s just a lot of lack of distance really so I I’m not too worried about this just like I’m not really with with Sam Ryder third and good drives gain eighth in sand saves a
Lot of that helps with the putter as well second in scrambling a lot to like with the toddfa this week Chris Kirk your defending Champion makes a lot of sense as well now Rory and Fitz Patrick are getting hurt quite a bit because of this uh number here it looks blank
Because they haven’t played it in the past 5 years I do have to give U an arbitrarily High number in here because we don’t know for a fact that they’re going to like this course in the recency now yes Fitzpatrick’s played it you know a couple times way back in 2016 2017 but
He’s a completely different player now than he was then that’s why I only go back 5 years but they’re getting hurt with that Rory is only projected at 13 a half per fantasy National that’s not quite the case per gab Source Fitzpatrick’s at 6% he’s actually not too much
Higher uh per Gabe source so like that and then Justin Rose has been really bad at the Honda the past five years but rated out to fifth per the metric so something to think about anyway there’s a look at my rankings enough of that let’s go ahead and sort on the price
Board figure out where our fellow contestants are going in these various uh price ranges gosh dang it where they’re going in these various price ranges and who we may want to Pivot to uh or fade away from uh to gain some leverage on them
All right so in the 5Ks or uh in the in the 10ks are five digits we have five players Rory at 122 C young at 107 Fitzpatrick at 106 Henley at 102 Tom Kim at 101 you see most of these players ring out pretty darn well for me don’t
Party too out out in Florida um most of these players playing are are raing out fairly well cam young young played you know decently well here once but I’ve got issu I got I got concerns he’s not a good putter especially on Tiff eagle the irons have been shaky at
Best is what I’ll say he’s got plenty going for him like he’s he’s better at bogey avoidance than you might think of course off the tea that’s kind of his game but I I kind of have to agree with with the the numbers here I’m going to make him pretty easy
Fifth Rory depends on what projected ownership or what source you want to go by fantasy National has r at 13 1.2% or the members at Fantasy National have him at 13.2% per Gabe Source it’s 35 and a half% and I have to believe he’s going to be much closer to that 35%
I actually don’t know if he’s going to be 35% I would think think of Tony fenale from last week I would think 30% in that range but it’s going to be a lot would be my guess and you’ve got reason to be concerned uh the putter not great on this surface and he
Actually doesn’t take advantage of the short par fives as much as you would like from an elite player especially one with the distance that he has now he is the number one biry getter especially when it’s difficult he’s the number one par for player so if they do end up
Playing more important than what I have given here then that could be something but he does have a couple of really really eyore statistics so that’s why I’m going to make Matt Fitzpatrick number one he is 6% here at Fantasy National 10 and a half per gab Source by far the most
Unique in the 10ks cuz the next would be Tom Kim Tom Kim’s at closer to 14% per gab source so both places whether it’s fantasy National or um per game Source it Fitzpatrick is 4% less than Tom Kim and I was looking at this a little bit earlier today this
Did not feel like a really good Tom Kim fit you think about his wins the Shriners and the Windom yes they’re short but they’re easy this is not easy having said that when I looked at Tom Kim he actually plays really really well in the wind um and it’s and he’s actually
Played fairly well on difficult coures he just hasn’t won them you see the putter it’s probably a little bit better than what you would think cuz again the Windam is on Bermuda just not Tiff Eagle Bermuda um good with the irons good good Scrambler good bogey
Avoider he devours the short par for so the more I thought about Tom Kim the more I understood why people were gravitating towards him but I’m still going to make Matt Fitzpatrick number one a lot of it has to do with the fact that his ownership is so
Much lower than everybody else in the 10ks the irons are fine I’m not worried about the irons number one bogey avoider I still think PJ National is going to be tough top 10 on this service look at everybody else in the 10K look at everybody else in the 10K and look at
Their atrocious performance on this surface then you have Matt Fitzpatrick who is Elite on this surface love Matt Fitzpatrick this week he will have to absolutely be better on the short par fives no doubt about that but everything else is good to Great to even Elite off the tea is fine good
Drives gained is good decent maybe top 15 greens top 15 sand saves top five in scrambling when it’s difficult top five in Bird’s gain when it’s difficult top 15 at the specific length of par 3es I love Matt Fitzpatrick going to be extremely overweight on Matt Fitzpatrick
I’m telling you right now I’m going to have more than 10% Matt Fitzpatrick in my lineups if he does not play well I will lose I don’t think there’s anything wrong with Rory but at 30 to 35% which would be my guess you’ve got enough reason to fade
Him Henley’s going to be fine he’s just he’s just a good play he’s going to be chalky 16% per game Source 17% here at Fantasy National again the Putter’s bad but you see the perform performance at the Honda it’s been great good irons uh accurate
Player uh you know off the te on short courses just accurate good drivers gained H’s fine he’s just chalky he’s fine it’s some chalk I’ll eat but I’m going to I’m going almost all in on Fitzpatrick so with the 10ks obviously Fitz Patrick’s my number one player uh I’ll probably go Henley second
Um to save some money uh again the pricing is going to help with that I’ll go Rory Third only because I’m still going to stick to my gut feeling that this just doesn’t feel like a great Tom fit Tom Kim fit and I could be wrong
With that but I’m just going to stick to my gut feeling there and Cameron Young’s close to a full fate I just I don’t want much of Cam young even though he has played well here so here’s a look at the 10ks let’s go to the nines
Uh not going to go through everybody here but Eric Cole number one player in my rankings I don’t care if he’s I mean I will care if he’s 30 to 35% owned you have to expect he’s probably going to be around 20 20 to 25% would be my guess
I’m going to use him is chalk I’ll eat going to use my number one player in my rankings third in irons second on the surface top 10 and bogey avoidance when it’s difficult now the issue with Eric Cole has been his off the tea game and
That could be an issue here but it didn’t prevent him from contending last year so uh I will I will defer to the one solid year that he’s had and I again I just don’t know how much off the tea is really going to play a factor that’s why it’s only at
5% so I’m going to use a lot of Eric Cole kind of like Tom Kim this just didn’t feel like a great JT poting fit he loves short courses which is what PJ National is but he generally likes it when it’s easier having said that he doesn’t have
Any bad statistics except for one all of his statistics are green except for one and that’s the birdies gain when it’s difficult he’s more of a bogey avoider as you can see when it’s difficult as opposed to going low posting okay I suppose um for 15%
Per gab Source 13 and a half year it’s going to be you know pretty popular but I play I don’t hate I would just much even at at 5 to 10% more ownership I would just rather play Eric Cole because I’m just confident Eric Cole I mentioned last week how when you
Start getting sunj into these low ownerships might be time to start thinking about sunj again I think we’re getting close to that point 8% per fantasy National 9 and a half per gab source sunj is a former Champion here really likes uh the Honda now the cognizant he’s way too
Talented of an iron or player in general for the irons to be this bad he really putts this surface well you see the off the tea prowess on short courses and sand saves third in sand saves all the bailouts in this are in on this course are in the sand he’s a
Premier sand player I really like sunj this is the second of two or three second of three or four excuse me players that I’m going to be extremely overweight on if they don’t play well I will lose I think we’re getting to a point where you need to start actively rostering sunj because
You’re going to be gaining a whole lot on your fellow contestants again 8% per fantasy National n and a half per Gabe sour I like sanj a lot minwoo I like the player this does not feel like a good fit for minwu Lee the irons are better
Than this but he’s more known as as his off the tea game for for his off the tea game particularly his driver drivers mitigated here so I’ve got cons I’ve got concerns with midw Le I like the player I don’t think this is a good fit I also don’t see Ben on
The fit with Ben on I mean I understand he’s played it well in the past but the irons are shaky um par 3es are bad and you got to play the par 3s well here and again the good combination of of good drives whether that is the iron play lacking
Or he can get a little bit Wayward I I got some concerns with Ben on so this is going to be a full fade this is where I’m planting my flat I’m I’m going to be bold I’m going to full fade B on and if I lose I lose but you can’t
Play everybody I mentioned how I’m really high on sunj and going to use Eric Cole we’ll talk about Lowry here in a second can’t play everybody I’m gonna full fade B on and if he does play well I will lose Chris Kirk’s fine um it’s surprising to
See how much people have are not talking about the defending champion of the tournament top five in irons top 10 in putting on this surface I don’t want to call last year a fluke it’s I mean he’s a good player man 133% per fantasy National only 10%
Per gab Source I think you’d be fine rostering some Chris Kirk that’s somebody you might want to think about is especially if you want to get off the B on or perhaps get off the Eric Co chalk I wouldn’t suggest to get it off the Shane Lowry chalk as I’ll talk about
Here in a second but you know for 100 more you know you’re going to gain quite a bit of ownership uniqueness going from Lowry to KK going to use a lot of lowry 16 and a 12 here at Fantasy National 11 per gab Source I love Lowry this week
We’re going to see him or you’re going to see him on uh on social media later this night or later tonight around the betting cards and the uh you know the top player usage good evening Darnell thanks for jumping in chat hopefully you are ready for uh the cognizant uh this
Week um jumping in here in the 9ks um where we are talking about Shane Lowry uh he has one bad statistic it’s the it’s the length of the par 3s hasn’t prevented him from playing extremely well here the past five years lots of you know deep green or good statistics love Shane
Larry this week Burger really likes this course he’s getting a little bit of attention um I am still wanting to see continued signs of Health because I play multiple lineups I’m willing to take the chance on rostering Daniel burer once or twice just because he loves this place so much but you see
63rd in the rankings from or you know the straight analytical rankings um I would be a little bit cautious on Burger I would I’m going to absolutely be lighter on Burger than uh than the rest of the community or or our fellow contestants I’ll be using once or twice
But uh I still still am cautious because of of coming back from injury do not want any part of Cory Connors you see how terrible he has been here at the Honda he is atrocious on these greens he’s not a good putter in general but him me he is atrocious on these green
Greens doesn’t take advantage of par 3s or par fives uh he is the number one off the te player on short courses sure he’s generally accurate but if he has anywhere near an off week in irons if he’s field average in irons he’s going to struggle cuz his sand play is
Awful if we had a stroke G around the Green in here it would be awful I don’t want any part of Connors I’m actually fully out on Connors 17.5% per game Source that’s another reason why don’t want any part of it um so him
And uh who’s the other one oh Ben on so these two of the 9ks if they play well I’ll lose but I’m other place I’m at other places in here so I just don’t want any part of those too Mitchell’s fine former Champion that you would think this is a good fit for
Him uh but the for is pretty bad so uh go with what you want on that it’s okay I don’t I I don’t hate it but I’m not in love with it either just kind of on the kind of lukewarm with it moving into the eights uh we had some
Discussion about Denny McCarthy on Monday again I don’t hate it the irons are getting better but they’re still they still a struggle and you got to have you got to be really dialed with your irons now didn’t carthy is an all World putter is this actually not one of
His favorite surfaces so take that or you know keep that in mind but he is still a short game extraordinaire and which is going to really play out well at PJ National like Cory Connor he doesn’t take advantage of the part 3es and the par fives all that well he’s a
Little better than Connor is not by much um number one Scrambler actually surprising he’s number 20 top 20 in Bird’s gain when it’s difficult again probably all around that putting at 6.3% per fantasy National 7 and a half per gab Source if you want to
Use him as a one-off I don’t hate it McCarthy is somebody I would be more interested in outrights as opposed to DFS this week cuz I I I don’t see him being a middling performer I I think he’s going to be contending or or you
Know top 20ish you know high up on the leaderboard or he’s going to miss the cut I don’t see him being a middling performer so he was he’s somebody I would Target in outrights as opposed to DFS Jagger’s fine playing playing well right now he’s been okay at previous
Hondas uh Jagger 12 a half per G Source 14 per fantasy National so I mean he’s not unique it’s okay it’s fine kind of like Keith Mitchell if he fits great if not I you know I don’t have to use him elsewhere in the AKs I do like sep straa quite a
Bit uh two winter two years ago loves putting on this surface I think this is a little bit misleading he’s generally a pretty good bogey avoider pretty good uh pretty good grinder I would think um or I I think of SE sta is a pretty good grinder irons are
Okay uh really really takes advantage of these short par fives which is what you want to look at and he’s not going to get himself into trouble generally good drives gain greens when it’s difficult so 11 and a half per fantasy national uh 11 and2 per game source so
I’ll use some sep straa uh probably be a little bit overweight I’ll probably have a little bit more than 11 12% on it bottom of the 8ks um keep in mind this is Rasmus hoard not Nikolai so rasma is a very talented player as well but I just don’t have a
Good gauge on where you know what he how his game is going to translate over here yet Hustler’s getting some attention he is the number one putter on the surface um norin not really you look at norin he’s got a lot of red so does Hustler to be fair so does
Hustler um but the putter is going to save Hustler I think whereas norin I kind of look at on bent right or wrong I kind of look at norin on bent so yeah I don’t know I’m I’m just not really I’m not really much of any of these players really Jake knap great
Story uh I think he’s going to have the winners hangover could be wrong but I think he’s just going to have the winners hangover Jus Rose is going to be an interesting decision for me never he’s not played well here in the last five years but rated out fifth by the pure
Numbers and is Extreme ex L unique 6 and2 at both places so let’s figure it out here approach good good to decent decent putter on Tiff Eagle grinder supposedly y off the te is his weakest okay decent with these short par fivs par 3es are
Okay um I don’t know what do you all think on Justin Rose I mean 10th in my rankings fifth by the Numbers very unique but he’s just been really bad at the at the Honda whenever he’s played it in the past five years so I don’t know I
Don’t know how I feel about Justin Rose everything analytically saying to use him so I’m sure I’ll have him been on was on the course early tweeting every two seconds the definite fade I mean I won’t fade a guy just for just for doing that but I’ve got other reasons The
Fading we talked about that in the 9ks I just there’s a couple of 9ks I’m just not playing and he’s one of them cuz I like several players in the nines I would be interested to hear what you all think on Justin Rose I’m kind of I’m non-committal on
Him I don’t know how I feel about him moving into um moving into the upper sevens hogi getting a lot of attention probably for the accuracy narrative and he’s actually been a pretty good putter on Tiff Eagle Bermuda I don’t hate it 12% here 10% per game Source
Okay uh just understanding he’s just not been good at the Honda in years past and that putter can go cold quickly but I’ll have some Tom hogy I’m sure third in the rankings again it’s just he’s just been bad kind of like Justin Rose but Justin Rose to me is more
Intriguing because of the half ownership that hogi is pendrith boy pendrith I really wanted the like last week at Mexico it felt like it was a good course for him then I thought about it and he really kind of struggled on Long courses this actually might be a place
To look at Taylor pendrith surprisingly I know that doesn’t scream like a good fit for Taylor pendri but he generally plays shorter courses better than longer ones the putter is not great on this surface but pretty good bogey avoider when it’s difficult irons are still fine off the te is mitigated here but
You know it’s okay I don’t know penders might be a useful one-off in your lineups I don’t want any part of vinsent either he’s the third of the three players that I’m going to fade I just there’s too much going wrong with Vincent I understand the irons are great right
Now but bad on this surface even though he won at the RSM he’s still been bad on this surface and I generally look at zinon when when it’s easier this is this is not easy so look at the look at all these things when it’s difficult 888 bogey avoidance when it’s
Difficult 127th good drives 142nd in Greens we talked about brenon Todd in the reveal of the top 10 going to be unique that’s for sure so probably should like him a little bit more but I don’t know if I would put him fourth in my rankings moving into the mid sevens
Look bazan’s getting a lot of love this doesn’t feel like a great bazan ho course kind of like Tom Kim this doesn’t feel like a great bazan hoot course um I just looked at the time and I’m coughing my head off and we still have to lineups to make so I’m going to
Kind of go through the rest of this rest of the sevens sixes and fives quickly but feel free to jump in chat if you have a question about a specific player but I am going to try to speed this up a little bit since we still have lineups to
Make I’m sure I’ll have Zen hoot but I’m not nearly as high on him as as this 135% here I I don’t trust the off the tea enough to keep himself in play basically um hubard okay but he really fell apart on the weekend um in Mexico I talked about his
Lack of off the tea prow so he’s also not the best when it’s difficult you see scrambling Bird’s gained good drives gained to pretty bad when it’s difficult so I don’t see this is a good fit for hubard even though he’s played it couple times and fairly well elsewhere in the low
Sevens uh shank rated out well because I have the good you know the accuracy the good drives gain the greens scrambling and and stuff that he’s generally pretty good at um okay I’ll use some Adam shank I guess I do worry about his part three performance CU you do have to play those
Well here but I I I don’t hate shank a little bit Lucas Glover is getting the most love well I can’t say that uh he’s at 6 and a half per gab Source 10% fantasy National the number one iron player in the past 36 rounds now some of this might be going back
Towards the uh playoffs FedEx playoffs from last year when he was just on fire but that putter is a little bit better than what this is still showing thanks to the broomstick so I’m sure I’ll have some exposure to Lucas Glover but I’ll try to limit it because
I do I do kind of like shank uh but I’m just not in this area of the price board much tells you the kind of lineups I’m probably building moving into the sixes oh last sorry do not forget Billy horel uh it’s Bermuda Billy after all
And he has played the Honda very very well in the past it’s Bermuda Billy don’t ignore him he’s not in great form but don’t be surprised if he is up top 25 me it is Bermuda Billy all right moving into the sixes uh couple of names to to give you
He’s not going to be unique by any means uh sitting at uh roughly 7% or so per gab Source 11 and a half per fantasy National Carson young I really really like number one par three performer we’ve talked you know all week and tonight how important I think those
Are he does have to be better at the par fives he’s going to have to be better at at at the scrambling portion um in the difficult but you’re playing him for the par 3s good irons good putter on the surface I do like some Carson young um elsewhere in the
6ks not a whole lot really that I am that I’m really really excited about I know Gary Woodland rate it out really really well I’m just not I’m just not there he’s burned me enough already that I’m hesitant top 15 in irons and supposedly top 15 on this surface but I don’t know
I think that’s a little bit misleading he not been good at the par fives sand saves has not been good scrambling has not been good I’m just not as high on Gary Woodland as it might seem so really it’s kind of Carson young in the upper sixes moving into the lower six sixes
Oh not much here I don’t think um if you can stomach the bad putter you might want to take a look at Alex SMY just because he’s such a grinder he hits plenty of greens it’s just that putter is really really bad so not in love with it by any means but
It’s something to think about if I’m going down here I’m just going to go to Sam Ryder 9% per fantasy National and 4% per gab Source like even if he ends up being in the seven to eight% like number three in my rank is number two iron player top 20 in
Putting I I just give me all the Sam Ryder I can get that’s probably telling you types of lineups I’m building if I’m not in the low sevens or the mid sevens really and not only that he’s top 10 almost top five on these shorter par fives which is which
Is very prevalent here at PJ National so yep that’s that’s where I’m at with the price board where our fellow contestants are where I think some good pivots are who the best choices to fade let’s start making some lineups we’ll start with tiers contests for those who
Play tiers contest and then we’ll jump into uh classic and the big gvp so for those who play tiers contest tier one Rory cam young Matt Fitzpatrick to me it’s a pretty clear Matt Fitzpatrick for two reasons one he’s going to be extremely more unique than Rory in a tears
Contest and two I just don’t think Cameron Young’s I’m just fading Cameron young so to me for me it’s just kind of the choice between Fitz and Rory I’ll take the uniqueness off of Fitz uh the elite putter on this surface number one bogey avoider when it’s
Difficult just give me all the fits I can get Fitzpatrick and tier one tier two Henley Tom Kim Eric Cole Poston and MW Lee well just because I mean I took Fitzpatrick I got a lot of uniqueness out of it so it allows me to take Eric
Cole my number one player I don’t think Russell Henley’s a bad choice either but if I’m going to take chalk might as well take the chalk that is number one in my ranking so give me Eric Cole in tier two I do think Henley’s a fine Choice tier
Three sunjay Ben on Chris Kirk Shane Lowry Cory Connors this is tough I do like Lowry a lot I really like sunj and I think sunj is going to be under represented but give me Shane Lowry number two two player in my rankings he just loves playing the Honda or PJ
National again don’t overlook sunj and don’t overlook Chris Kirk either but I’ll go low then sunjay then Ben on in tier three tier four Daniel burer Keith Mitchell Dy McCarthy joer Pavone straa and Jake nap for me it’s pretty clear I’ll take sep straa not particularly close with anybody else here again
Burger I want to see some health he still to me has that injury withdrawal risk Mitchell McCarthy okay Pavone could be interesting if you think he’s going to be unique but just give me SE tra tier five we have Rasmus boy Bo Hustler norn list Rose hogy and
Pidr if you’re comfortable just take Tak a pure Wild Card Rasmus ho guards I don’t want list it might be Rose just for the uniqueness Hustler makes I guess some sense I suppose yeah I I don’t have a strong feeling in tier five so I guess I’ll go Rose it’s pretty
Close between Rose and hogy for me pendis also if you want to be real contrarian take Taylor pend cuz a lot of people are going to be off of him after his uh miscut last week but I do think I do think Rose is probably the best choice
Here pendri is cont now I’m starting to talk myself into pidr let’s see what else did I go I went went stco is probably going to be pretty pretty chalky tier three went Larry was talky yeah let’s you know what let’s try let’s try pendri I’ll try I’ll try Taylor pendri
In tier three in tier five it’s pretty close again Hoy guard’s the pure wild card I’ll I’m between these three if you have a strong feeling on any of them take them I’ll go with pendri just because I think he’s going to be ultra unique tier
Six batia oh crap you need to scroll over batia Tompson Su Hadley Carson young Brandon woo and valaki for me it’s just Carson young he’s going to be going to be chalky in this tier but that’s why we went pendri and we went Fitzpatrick to take some of the chalk
And the other tiers so I’ll take Carson young So This Ti construction goes Matt Fitzpatrick Eric Cole uh Shane Lowry in tier three tier four SE straa tier five is Taylor pendrith tier six we take Carson y all right let’s move on to Classic lineups see what kind of lineups our
Fellow contestants are building and how we can maneuver around them and gain some leverage and really rise in our big gpps so the first question you got to ask or anyone’s asking I imagine is are you playing Rory or not so we’re going to start this lineup with Rory and then
We’ll go to a lineup that doesn’t so if our fellow contestants are playing Rory we got to see where they’re going to bottom out I’m trying not to go down into the fives but they’re probably going to have to go into the sixes members of fantasy
National if they are going down into the sixes uh dri is at 9% batia is at 9% Davis Thompson’s at 85% now Carson Young’s the most per fantasy national uh let’s see let’s I imagine Thomas dietry might be getting some some attention from our fellow contestants so
We’re go we’re going to try to bottom them out at Thomas dietre uh Doug gim’s getting a lot of attention as well so they could very well bottom out Doug gim um let’s see the next would be bazan hooton Vinson that’s going to be pretty high in price
So with that being the case they might actually do a Doug gim here that would allow them to go Adams vincon um at 77 hogy at 79 10% per game Source 11 a half or so here which then leaves them 83 BOS getting quite a bit of
Attention I was trying to make this chalky but um some of these are are way off in terms of like boster 7% per fantasy National he’s 12 a half per gab Source hogi at 11.7 here 10% per phasing National or per gab Source Vincent’s going to be really chalky gim’s getting
A lot of attention now D3 is pretty off as well like if we wanted to just go straight off of fantasy Nationals ownerships we could go uh Carson young then Doug gim zinon hogy getting a lot of attention to the 85 hoard let’s see if we can’t get them up
To a maybe a Jagger man that may be too much St ster maybe 100 off yeah we’ll just have to drop off of him what do you want to know about Tony on the parlays um you know shout yours out or or what there’s a there’s a probably a
Chalky kind of shell to our Rory lineup you go Rory then dropping down into the to the eight for maybe a Jagger SE sta probably won’t be able to do another eight depending on how far down they’re willing to go in the price Carson young or or Thomas dietry you have Doug gim
Bade n Vinson those are the kind of lineups that are getting built with Rory I would think uh good evening uh P thanks again for jumping in chat much appreciated again safe travels have fun down in Florida can’t wait to hear about it next week um hopefully
You’ll be back um and to share some of those stories but thanks again p uh have a good one good luck this weekend top 20 Eric Cole uh Jagger Henley Larry McCarthy Pavone pendra hubard Kirk Hodges Burger St so you’re looking at at at odds there with those
Yeah okay let me finish these let me finish these these lineups here and we can we can look at that as a community but there’s what I would think is a chalky looking shell of a lineup with Rory then we go if we’re not going to use Rory again per fantasy national uh
Got messed up no big deal I can I can somewhat I can somewhat um see what we’re looking at there all right so Henley um been on getting a lot of attention as well so if there if our fellow contestants aren’t going Rory they’re going to they’re going to start
Probably around Henley or Tom Kim this very well could be Eric Cole Ben on getting a whole lot of attention as well Shane Lowry Cory Connor um we’re going to try to not go into the 6ks since they’re not having to go or since they’re not using Rory again Doug
Gim is the most common low seven 11% per game Source 11 a half here at Fantasy National um let’s see elsewhere in the low sevens like you don’t really have too much else like Lucas Glover at 10% per fantasy National but per gab Source only 6 and a half
So Hub bazan hoot’s getting a lot uh you’d also have uh vinon who’s really really popular and then 8,000 is Rose who’s not B Tom hogi again I try to use different players but it seems like fantasy Nationals kind of gravitating towards the same guys in this bottom part of the
Or the actually technically the middle price of the price board these 7ks really kind of looking at the same guys svensson uh bazan hoot maybe a little bit of hubard Doug gim in the low sevens so there’s a look at a couple of chalkier lineups I think so how are we
Going to combat this well I’ve been building mostly Fitzpatrick lineups to get off of Rory if you wanted to use Rory I think you’re well within your ability to because at 5900 yeah he might be a little bit more popular than you might would like but Sam Ryder really really rates out well
Really like Sam Ryder uh if you were Ultra greedy you could do a five and a six you know perhaps you’re high on Samy valaki again this week who I don’t hate Carson young probably going to be a little bit too chalky to combine with Sam Ryder um
7K again I don’t don’t ignore Billy horel Bermuda Billy um Glover could be interesting Adam shank 7200 could absolutely work it with this and now you have an average of of 88,200 per player here you don’t even have to you can go into the upper sevens brenon Todd Taylor pendri
Who’s a little he’s a little bit more uh speculative for sure uh I don’t know how the chat feels about Justin Rose maybe you like a Tom hogy quite a bit um yeah let’s do brenen Todd why not brenen Todd and then 8,500 per player maybe you have B Hustler I
Like sep strer quite a bit Justin Rose let’s do B hostler I’m not in love with but it works 88 is who’s fine I would use straa in this like you’re looking at a pretty damn unique lineup here especially if you’re going all the way down to the fs for Sam Ryder Adam
Shank’s going to be very very unique who rates out very very well just thanks to all the accuracy and uh short game that is in here me the irons are fine the putting’s fine fifth in these short par fives greens when it’s difficult he hits plenty of them so I really like shank
With that so there’s a look at a possible Rory lineup uh but it’s not my go-to this week my go-to like I said has been fits I don’t care even if he is popular I’m going to Eric Cole I don’t I could go to Sam Ryder in this don’t have to by any
Means um again Billy is fine dri could be interesting I’ve been going to Carson young cuz I’ve been getting a lot of uniqueness with Fitzpatrick off of it uh 7600 is a little bit tougher to navigate probably not able to go to like a Taylor pendri you maybe I could
Definitely can’t do like a sep straa or a B Hustler or anything like that might be able to do a Taylor pendri but um I’ll just throw in Billy with this there’s a billy if I do sep straa who I’m again very high on what’s that leave me with 72 that’s
Adam shank who would fit uh throw in Glover in this little bit more uh common of a lineup just because I’m using sep straa here but if we wanted to get off of that um you could try to get real greedy go like Fitzpatrick Cole
Lowry would have to drop down to the Sam Ryder for it um Billy then 73 Taylor mtgy I don’t I don’t necessarily love Rio maybe but it’s that Adam shank Lucas Glover dri might even work but but again I’ll throw uh this one’s already at 10% I’ll
Throw shank into it but those are the kind of lineups I’ve been doing Fitzpatrick and Cole Fitzpatrick and you know maybe a Russell Henley Fitzpatrick and Sun J absolutely would fit into this I’ve just been getting greedy I’ve been getting greedy So my answer to the question that I post to chat I’m
Absolutely going into the 5Ks this week love Sam might be one other player that I look at but it’s mainly Sam Ridder all right um if you want to look at parlay’s here Tony I mean Eric Cole it’s only one time so I wouldn’t everything lines up really well
For him but you know there’s always I really like Lowry um Burger maybe I really like straa so low and straa who you’ve who you’ve listed there again I’m extremely H Fitzpatrick although I don’t know what his odds would be for it but you know combining
This in a parlay it’s going to it’s going to help you out uh hey good evening Jeff uh thanks for jumping into chat glad you glad you enjoyed the show uh took something from it uh love being able to share what I see um even though we’ve a little bit
Long on time I’m I’m always here to to answer whatever questions people have uh but yeah uh thanks for thanks for watching much appreciated thanks for jumping in chat so yeah I would don’t forget about K Kirk either Kirk’s played really really well here I think I would go Lowry straa I
Don’t I don’t hate straa at two to1 um Kirk almost two to one seems interesting as well I like Henley the player I don’t like those odds by any means plus 125 I think with th with those I’d go Lowry straa Kirk think it it depends on if you want
To get you know like a quote safer one maybe that doesn’t pay out as much or if you want to maybe try to hit more of a home run like pendri at 3 to one’s kind of interesting uh Hodes at plus 360 lot Hodges has played extremely well here in
His two or three times he’s played the Hodes oh where is he he’s played extremely well here yeah 20.25 extremely good now he didn’t rate out well for me but the good drives game the greens when it’s difficult like there’s a lot you know you got something to go on there with
Lee Hodes he just didn’t rid out well that could be interesting if you’re trying to hit more of like a home run but we’ve been going on quite a bit I don’t know how much longer my voice is gonna is gonna um hold so I’m gonna have
To unfortunately call the show or or end it there U but I will say that my one and done for this week is Shane Lowry much like what I said with Cameron Champ last week we know that Shane Lowry has played well here in the past in the
Recent past he generally likes Florida and I don’t Envision a place where I would want to use Shane Lowry other than maybe the Open Championship that’s so far down the road we don’t know what his form is going to be so even though he’s not in exactly the best form
Now I’m going to use Shane Lowry I just confident that he’s going to play well as he typically does here at PJ National um but I want to thank Tony and Jay P Darnell Jeff all of you for joining in the chat really appreciate uh all the interaction especially with the
With the poll question uh but appreciate all the uh the viewership love what I do taking an in- depth look at sports statistics giving you a statistician and data analyst view of what he sees trying to help us all win a little bit of money in the process
So thanks to you five for jumping in chat thanks to everyone else out there who Tunes in watches listens and supports the channel it’s always appreciated uh again quick reminder just because I’m thinking of it next week is a double tournament week we have the Arnold Palmer and the Puerto Rico so not
Only will we have a show Sunday Monday and Wednesday for the Arnold Palmer we’re going to have the Puerto Rico open full show yeah DFS data and research all in one show for the Puerto Rico open that’ll be Tuesday night at 9:00 p.m. so we have a full week of shows next week
For calls calls in the double tournament week thanks again for all the support really appreciate it for all of the Wagers you have made this week for the cognizant classic for all the DFS contests you play this week for the cognizant classic for this weekend and every weekend may all your bests be
Profitable
