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Good evening ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 cognizant classic data dive show we got a lot to get into and quite frankly I just want to get right into it uh so let’s not delay it any at all all statistics provided tonight and every
Night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money don’t get me wrong there are plenty of Great Golf analytics tools out there I simply believe fantasy national.com is the best so go check out fantasy national.com you will not regret
It in the description to the video there are links to all of the social media first off my ex and Instagram where I posted some research earlier today around the previous eight winners of what used to be known as the Honda Classic here at PGA National um not a
Whole lot of a pattern to establish um as I mentioned in the research so if you’re interested in what the pattern is or the players who qualify this week under those criteria then give me a follow at your preferred social media site X is also where I place my weekly betting cards and
My um top usage DF in DFS uh so if you want to see those two pieces of information give me a follow over at X as well and then lastly for social media gabes handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The
Fringe it’s a great way to start your week of preparation and then throughout the week he will send you his own version of course history recent form in his own format um so it’s a it’s a great read I can’t recommend it enough uh we
Both uh didn’t uh do so well last week but two weeks ago uh with with my Hideki Matsuyama outright hit and his DFS um huge weekend uh you’re really missing out if you’re not following Gabe uh and subscribing to that article because if you are a subscriber to that article
You’re going to be able to join us every Wednesday night in his substack chat after Call’s calls in the DFS tactic show he is gracious enough to host me over there as we continue the DFS talk uh in his substack chat so make sure you are subscribed to that article and
Following him over on social media then lastly we’re live chat’s open again if you weren’t able to uh watch the show live last night or haven’t uh been able to reach out to me via the comments of social media if you had success at the Mexico open then feel free to put that
In would love to be able to shout out uh more members of the community who had success Beyond Dave and Micah um from last night and then moving to the cognizant did you make any Wagers when the odds boards cames out came out uh this morning what players are you
Focused on early on in your DFS lineups uh what do you think plays well here what doesn’t all that so let’s dig into the weeds of the data for the 2024 cognizant classic and we’re going to start as we traditionally do on a Monday evening over at windfinder now uh
Super forecast is a little bit too far in advance uh but we can take a look at uh the regular forecast some 72 hours out from the tournament in Palm Beach Gardens and Thursday looks somewhat calm um maybe some wind picking up in the afternoon which you would expect
Generally happens at most tournaments but Friday and Saturday looks like quite a bit of wind and that is going to just uh amplify the difficulty that PGA National presents uh the players uh every day if the wind indeed is picked up and then Sunday looks like some rain
Possibly in the forecast of course once we get to Wednesday evening we’ll want to keep an eye on that but as of right now too early to to say if we would be wanting to look at a particular half of the draw of a focus uh but we’re
Definitely going to want to be looking at some wind metrics this evening so speaking of that let’s go ahead and move to Fantasy National and you see that we have in the past uh let’s go ahead and go to two years and or 36 rounds in moderate or windy conditions
Our top performers in the field this week Rory mroy Cory Connor Denny McCarthy Matt Fitzpatrick Ricky Fowler Harry Hall Justin Rose Ben on sunj and Carson young there’s been one more field change that I have seen from today in terms of players not playing it is
Vincent Wy so last night chz reevy and McKenzie Hughes had withdrawn from playing the cognizant this week and then today Vincent wayy withdrew there have been a couple of sponsors exemptions uh I believe Chris gup is one of them the other one is escaping me at the moment
But if you want to be filled in on all of the latest field changes on the PGA tour then go follow Rob Bolton over on Twitter or X um as he is the one that gives all the updates in terms of um uh field changes so there’s a look at you
Know our top 10 in terms of wind we can continue on down maybe a little bit Chris Kirk your defending Champion Here Andrew Novak Adam shank Shane Lowry Kevin Yu and so on down there’s your top players in moderate and windy conditions the past two years or 36 rounds the
Other end of the spectrum players have not played well Robert garagas Carl Yuan Kevin kizner Ryan brim Harrison indicon Eric Van royan surprisingly um at least in my mind um surprisingly that he has not played well in the wind considering he generally plays pretty darn well in windy conditions I guess it’s the
Moderate that’s holding him back um JB Holmes Tom hogi Matias Schmid so on down the list there you can see players who have not played well in moderate and windy conditions all right we’ve got a couple of things Beyond The Wind that we can look at um
With the wind forecast the way it is I do think it’s still going to play difficult this week even though the par 410th has been converted to a par five that’ll ease the difficulty some with the amount of wind at least in the forecast this far out I still think this
Course is going to um show its teeth um it’s only that one hole that I got changed there are plenty of holes at PJ National that are extremely difficult uh more than a third of a shot overpar the par for six uh quarter of a shot 2/1
Quarter of a shot two1 there’s plenty of holes here that are difficult so I still think um even with the conversion with the amount of wind that is in the forecast this early in the week we’re going to look at some difficult scoring relative to par so in in rounds that are
Difficult to par our top performers Rory Matt Fitzpatrick Tom Kim Denny McCarthy Ricky Fowler Justin Rose Thomas dietry Justin Su sunjay and Shane Lowry so a lot of overlap here between wind and difficult of course Rory number one in both maitz Patrick was up there very
High on both lists I believe sunjay and Shane Lowry were high both list now Adam shank not quite top 10 in excuse me in difficult but he was for the wind so quite a bit of overlap here with these players in the top 10 and then moving on
Down a little bit minwu Lee Brenan Todd Gary Woodland Adam shank Austin eot and so on down there your top performers when rounds are difficult Tony thanks for jumping in chat much appreciated good to see you this evening my boy Denny about to ball out this week at I
Don’t hate that um and that’s why we go pretty deep into the data especially on a on a Monday uh Monday evening we take a look hopefully out I apologize for any buffering or anything that’s going on um it’s kind of out of my control with
OBS actually I take that back I might be able to close out something that might be causing it a little bit so we’ll see if that helps the other end of the spectrum players who have not played well when um when win rounds have been difficult past couple years Nico
Etaria uh hey P uh good to see you um I’ll catch up with you here in a second but your your bottom performers or your worst performers when rounds are difficult niik etaria Ryan brim Kevin kizner Eric Van royan Camille vas Harrison indicot Paul Bon Peter monatti
Gar kigo so on down uh hopefully you had a good Mexico open at least better than mine all as well and that you are ready for what used to be known as the Honda Classic now called the cognizant and don’t mind me I’m going to pop a cough
Drop cuz I can feel my um voice getting scratchy already but anyway there’s a look at your top performers when rounds are difficult the only other um kind of filter we can look at is perhaps on short courses I don’t love using that filter with the length or Le
Lengthening of the par now 510th but the course still measures right at 7,150 yards so your top performers on courses that are short defined as under 7200 yards Eric Cole Russell Henley JT Poston Taylor Montgomery Ben on Denny McCarthy M mui sunj Chris Kirk Rio hitsun made one Mexico lineup and it was
Was two of six glad that’s all I did yeah um my DFS wasn’t an abject failure it wasn’t great by any means and certainly certainly a losing proposition I had enough Stephan jger who finished in the top five or you know top three that kind of booed a lot of the lineups
That were five of six and four of six I only had one six of six lineup out of the 25 that I generally play so it wasn’t a great week by any means especially it was especially disappointing coming off the fantastic Genesis from two weeks ago so we’re
Going to see if we can’t turn that around lost a golf six golfer parlay T T20 I hit five out of six Grio got me so Grio was one person that I full faded last week that was one of the a few players that I got right I was nowhere
Near Grio I did not like his form coming in did not see the course fit now he played very well for the first two or two and a half days uh um but I lost all my parlays Harry Hall killed me on one he played really really well on Sunday he did not
Play well on Saturday um it it figures that I had uh Sammy valaki Harry Hall I think it was Stephan joerger in a top 10 20 30 or 1020 40 parlay um and Harry Hall killed me on that um so I won’t always be right and I
Will take full credit whenever I’m wrong uh I was very very high on Nate Lashley last week that turned out to bite me um but that is one one player I did get right anyway here’s our top again our top performers on short courses of course sorry Eric Cole Russell Henley
Has had lots of success here at PJ National Denny McCarthy makes a lot of sense as we were talking about a little bit earlier Tony Sun Jay massive amounts of success here the other end of the spectrum players that have not played well when courses are short again
Defined us 7200 yards or less Tyson Alexander Ben Taylor Cameron Champ somebody that was extremely high on last week this does not feel like a good fit for cam champ Ryan brim seemingly been at the bottom 10 on all of these snaker Matt Wallace Nico etaria um Chad Ry Vincent Norman vas so
On down the list there Sammy came through yeah I I did not use nearly enough of Samy valaki I mentioned him I was much higher on others in the 6ks but I certainly you know liked him enough to mention him um and I had even one lineup again that lineup was saved
By Sammy uh to men cash or maybe just a little bit more um but I wasn’t nearly as high on him as others that I had seen um you know floating around in X verse Twitter verse or whatever I’ll be about 20 minutes from the tourney this week in
Florida not be going to it well it’s a shame but enjoy your time in Florida um if if if you’re not having to plead the fifth what are you going to be doing down there P I hope you have safe travels U and enjoy your time in Florida
All right um I don’t honestly I don’t know how much much my voice is going to stay in tonight so let’s go ahead and run through these prior leader boards figure out the metrics that we want to focus on this week for the Honda and perhaps the players that
Will uh or that that are best at those metrics good evening Darnell um really appreciate you jumping in chat sorry I lost my train of thought uh hopefully you had a good Mexico open but um I believe we caught up a little bit it wasn’t great so so we’re
Going to try to get back on the winning WS like we were two weeks ago at the at the Genesis but appreciate you jumping in chat um and let’s try to uh let’s try to turn our fortunes around playing golf better than watching absolutely uh golfing with a buddy at the Country Club
Of Florida that’s awesome uh I got out today uh first round um of the new year um it actually went pretty well so I I was I was I I was pleasantly surprised with how well I played uh which means everything else golf related at least me playing golf in 2024 is just
All downhill um uh had nap was able to cash good good deal I had even one lineup and that’s kind of the kind of the story of my DFS last week I had one lineup with valaki one lineup with Jake knap a lot of Stephen jger if you were here last week
You knew how high I was on so he was able to to salvage some Min caches but certainly a losing proposition last week for me all right let’s cover these prior leaderboards we talked quite a bit last night how much ball striking matters especially Strokes get
Approach looking at yeah just the top 20 here um couple of players getting cut off at the bottom of your screen um only one player negative in Strokes gain approach in the top 20 last year for the Honda um I that tells you everything you
Need to know and you we got some big numbers in here seven 7 and 1/2 6 and a halfs s and a halfs lots of big numbers now off the te is a little bit more um correlating than I would have thought only really one horrendous
Performance in off the te if we sort on these some you know you have your you have your cut making here with some some Elite performances mixed in third fifth fifth but more so your cut making whereas if we look at approach you know a 60th from Kyle Stanley that’s fair that’s pretty
Poor top 15 a top five a top five the winner top 10 top five much more correlating in Strokes G approach um 60 something degrees Yeah it was 75 here in essentially Louisville Kentucky I’m in a suburb of it but uh it was beautiful and we took advantage of it around the green
This is one where I don’t know how to approach this week I’ll just be honest with you as the viewer scrambling I think is going to be somewhat important but I don’t know if that’s necessarily going to be around the green cuz there is plenty of water
In play off the tea so that by definition is going to force the player to be scrambling if they find the water off the tea and when we go to to Microsoft Excel later scrambling was not very predictive at least in terms of last year’s Honda
Classic so we’re going to have to we’re going to have to figure out what we want to do with round the green it makes a lot of sense that it would it would come into play if this course is difficult even though these greens are large they’re very difficult to hit um but
There isn’t a whole lot of correlation here I mean your winner or I’m sorry your leader in around the green missed the cut 71st and 60th 49th this is not this is not great correlation and then putting uh solid but you still have some pretty poor performances up here from solid Putters Anders
Albertson um Trevor wblo down there at 49 decent so we’ll be definitely looking at some putting but clearly last year it was about the irons and then just very very quickly we’ll cover 2022 as well uh in SE straka’s win looking at the top 15 not a single player negative in terms
Of approach I just think it’s going to be a major factor this week now putting was a big factor in 2022 only one player negative pretty poor putting that week but if we sort on these a five which led It’s always important to note that your
Leader in a category was the winner of a tournament so you can’t ignore that but that’s only a five from sep straa in terms of off the te decent amounts of correlation approach you know you got a nine 7 7 six almost 6 and 1/2 just pretty pretty good correlation other
Than Justin low obviously around the green whoopsie around the green not too much you got a couple High Miss Cuts up here some 40th Place finishes then putting okay decent but nothing astronomical so I’m a little torn about around the green we’ll definitely look at it I’m
Definitely torn on off the te just don’t know how much off the te is going to matter this week um and feel free to jump in the comments uh or chat I mean if you disagree or in the comments if you’re not able to watch the show live but
We’re definitely going to be looking at Strokes get approach so let me remove all the filters in the last 12 months or 36 rounds whichever happens first our top Strokes skin approach players in the field this week Lucas Glover Sam Ryder Eric Cole Tom hogi Chris Kirk Justin
Lower Ryan Moore Doug gim Matthew Pavone and Cory Connor looking at a little bit around the green I think I’m going to more so be focused on scrambling but your top around the green players Patty Harrington there’s a name for you Patty Harrington Troy Merritt Aaron battley sh Kim Russell Henley Stephan Jagger
Brendon Todd CT pan Ricky fer and Sam Stevens big misses are going into the water you are correct with that but a lot of players are going to have to be clubbing down anyway so they’re not going to be hitting driver that’s why I am not overly confident how much off the te
Is going to matter um because there’s a lot of forc layups um a lot of severe dog legs at PGA National so players are hitting three Woods five Woods maybe even driving irons as opposed to driver if this was a driver course then I would agree with
You Darnell I think off the tea would be a major factor think of somewhere like Phoenix um Genesis but with the amount of forc layups here I have my doubts how much off the tea is really going um going to play a big factor it’ll be a factor I don’t know how much
Of a big factor uh there’s our top around the green players then lastly let me grab the courses that have true Tiff Eagle Bermuda so the first being Bay Hill uh where we are next week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational the plantation course at capala of course PJ
National where we are this week Plantation course Tiff Eagle Bermuda Port Royal now we won’t get any putting data from Port Royal that is the host of the Butterfield Bermuda but I still will uh grab that data and then lastly C Island the host of the RSM let’s apply those course filters and
Take a look at who has put the best on Pure or true Tiff Eagle Bermuda so in the past two years your top performers on Tiff Eagle Bermuda Bo Hustler Eric Cole Tyler Duncan Taylor Montgomery Ben Taylor chessen Hadley Chris Kirk Matt Fitzpatrick Johnny Vegas and Alex noren again skipping McKenzie Hughes he
Is withdrawn from the tournament so again just to recap in The Strokes gained page view we’re going to do a lot in approach we’ll have some in putting especially around um um Tiff Eagle Bermuda and then kind of kind of open to debate or open to
Discussion on off the tea and around the green um you know I can see scrambling being more important to your point Darnell misses off the te you’re going to find water and those players are going to be scrambling from there and they’re not necessarily around the
Green um and because of the forced layup nature of some of the holes I don’t know how much off the te is going to be gained either more so probably accuracy like Fairways gained that would be my guess so all right let’s get this prepped for the fairways and greens take a look
At last year uh distance just absolutely not a factor you see all the players that are negative in terms of driving distance in relation to the field is just not important here at PJ National in Fairways like Chris Kirk and Eric Cole they I mean they were slightly positive but they weren’t astronomical
In terms of Fairways gained and you know we’re one and two really seeing how much or lack thereof how much off the te comes in play at least last year and having said that only three players in the top 20 were negative in Fairways gained but what I
Mentioned last night only two players were negative and good drives gained and I think that’s the the um that’s the metric that I’m thinking we’re going to be wanting to look at because a good drive gained per fantasy Nationals definition is a drive that hits the Fairway or the player is
Hitting the Green in regulation if they’re not in the Fairway so and you see the greens only two players you know negative. five over the course of a tournament pretty pretty much field average so if we sort okay more correlating than I thought yet I you know you know a 60th
From Kyle Stanley isn’t you know isn’t good but 5ifth 3rd 5th 12th 5th 14th you can’t argue that that’s pretty darn strong your winner just wasn’t up here with it but much more correlating than I thought good drives a lot of the same Fifth Fifth Third fifth some
Miscuts a little bit further down then greens yeah this is where I’m kind of leaning Fifth Fifth Fifth your winner was pretty high up here greens gained um if we look at 2022 in the top 15 just uh convenient for ties and whatnot only two players negative in good drives gained many more
Players were negative in Fairways only two players negative in Greens so good drives other than Alex SMY which he just generally is a green and regulation Ma machine sep straa Brian Stewart first ninth second third ninth top 20 top fives right below them pretty strong there there in the good drives gained
Greens oh gosh again Alex SMY he’s just a green and regulation player first fifth ninth second third fourth couple of you know middling to Clunkers depending on your definition fifth seventh that’s that’s very strong so I’m thinking good drives gained and or greens in regulation but what we want to think
About is do we want to look at any uh filter with that do we want to look at scoring difficult to par do we want to look at though that on short courses um do we want to look at that in the wind I would tend to lean towards scoring difficult in this
Regard so your top good good drives gained players when rounds are difficult Tom Kim uh Matthew n Smith in fact if I go if I bring this into the last year oh yeah no sorry uh wanted to see if that we had enough rounds they aren’t uh not to make it statistically
Significant so again last two years our top Greens in regular or I’m sorry our top good drives gained players when rounds are difficult Tom Kim Matthew n Smith Brendan Todd Shane Larry Kevin shman Doug gim Russell Henley Nate Lashley Vin Martin and Lucas Glover most of these players are going to be pretty
High up in Greens as well you see Tom Kim fourth Lowry 6th which I know you and I go back and forth on Lowry quite a bit Darnell I got to say I do like him here at the Honda or at the cognizant now at PJ National this does feel like a
Very good Shane Lowry fit and he has played well here in the past 5 years if we just very quickly look at tournament history he’s one of the top Strokes gain total leaders here uh in fact second and only doing it four year so Larry is somebody that’s going to be pretty high
This week for me Darnell and I know you and I have went back and forth on him uh a few times which you know that’s why we we love playing this game because we see different I do like Larry quite a bit um you know and several players that
Would get honorable mentions you know Doug gim 6th and 12th Henley 6th and 15th Lashley 6th and 11th your top greens gained players um when rounds are difficult Alex SMY Gary Woodland Rory Tom Kim Tom hogi Shane Lowry CT pan Cory Connors Lee Hodes and Luke Liss
So you see the majority of these players are are still very very good and good drives gained and hitting plenty of greens so I’m going to be EAS either using one or both of these just not sure which I’m really just not sure which and of course we can
Look at scrambling as well um scrambling is going to be a big thing here at PJ National so your top scramblers when rounds are difficult in the past two years Denny McCarthy to your point Tony earlier brenon Todd Taylor Montgomery Matt Fitzpatrick Matt coocher Andrew Novak Chris Kirk sunjay Christian bazen
Hoot and Daniel Burger to your point there Darnell um just a little bit of foreshadowing or for your information um I used scrambling when it’s difficult and it was not very predictive last year so we might look at scrambling in a different different context diff you know scrambling on short courses maybe
Um Ben on Ben Silverman Martin L Eric Cole Ben Griffin McNeely Taylor Montgomery coocher deny McCarthy and malady interesting but uh I’m really kind of scared of doing scrambling and difficult since it was so bad last year in terms of predict ability but maybe it was just
A bad year maybe it was an outlier year don’t know all right let’s move to scoring and this one’s going to be pretty darn easy although I do want to see um the double bogey avoidance as well so looking at last year top 20 majority of the players you’re going to
Be positive in birdies and bogey avoidance but if we sort on this double bogey avoidance again you just have a lot of 1.6es there’s no nobody that’s really taking um full advantage of the double bogey avoidance if that makes sense um so if we had some other values
You know up here at the top I might think about it but it just doesn’t seem like double bogey avoidance is a is a huge Factor when you sort it sort on the leaderboard instead you know couple of good performances or decent performances and then first second third
Fifth 14th fifth so Bird’s gained pretty solid bogey avoidance I’m going to tell you right now this is a little bit of an outlier because birdies gained were a little bit more important last year than bogy’s um boogies avoided you got four pretty middling to clunker finishes and then the Elite
Performance if we go to 2022 and I I’ll get to that thought here in a second Tony if we go to 2022 we’ll see that uh last year was definitely an outlier we look at the top 15 many many more players actually just one more player positive and bogey
Avoidance but some of these numbers you know almost eight or seven and a half seven and a half look at the contrast between Alex noren he didn’t gain hard than any birdies but still top five due to to his prowess at avoiding Bogies last or two years ago here at PGA
National same with Matia Schwab so if we sort again solid definitely solid up here but you can’t really argue against that fifth 2nd 1st fourth 7th fifth 30th and 25th you know nothing to to scoff at either um Pavone top 20 I tell you what these DP World Tour
Players I am generally not the best at at handicapping because I don’t pay attention to the DP World Tour I only look at stats from the PGA Tour so you know I’m usually pretty much pretty lower um or pretty low on DP World Tour guys my concern with Pavone you see here
And it’s a very small sample size he’s not actually played well when it’s difficult the farmers this year wasn’t extremely difficult normally the farmers is you know really darn difficult with all the rain they had in sou Southern California made it soft and it’s it was
Pretty receptive and you see it was more of an average difficulty tournament I know everyone thinks Farmers they think difficult and they should very good on Bermuda again just small sample size Sony very good American Express very good it’s not unreasonable but I can’t imagine it’d be good odds
Either I don’t know if I’d be willing to put that wager in on its own this might be a this might be an a parlay type deal you can’t argue with the form third first 39th 7th it’s just amazing I do have a little bit of concern particularly around difficult and I
Still think PJ National is going to be difficult he hasn’t been the best around the green and around the green can be a factor here talked you know throughout this evening um what what we might or might not do with round the green so definitely has the
Irons I don’t I don’t like it by itself but I think it’s reasonable if you want to put it in a parlay I think is where I’m at with that it’s always a beast of a course normally the winning score gets to the low double digits 10 12 I think the
Record is 14 under uh last year uh this course is generally a bear now I can see it getting a little bit um higher scoring or better scoring due to the conversion of the par 410th but I still think this course is going to show its
Teeth this is not an easy course all right so moving to scoring um this is just me as a statistician and me as a data analyst I am always going to prefer matching a scoring metric like birdies or better Bird’s gain bogey avoidance with a scoring filter easy or difficult
Relative to par so we’re just going to go ahead and look at difficult well of to par and there are the Eagles are essentially non-existent here we can see that from the courts breakdown from last night um just absolutely non-existent here so our top let me scroll all the way up our top
Birdies gained players when rounds have been difficult the past two years Rory Ricky Justin Su Roger Sloan Matt Fitzpatrick cam young Cory Connor sunjay Nate Lashley and Callum Taran our top bogey avoiders when rounds have been difficult Matt Fitzpatrick Rory Alex SMY Brenan Todd Lucas Glover Tom Kim Denny McCarthy Eric Cole Doug
Gim Matt coocher as well as McCarthy has played or let me let me rephase that as well as his irons have gotten in recent tournaments you know other than the Genesis when you know players are going to have bad bad weeks it’s just going to happen golf’s a crazy
Game McCarthy’s irons have generally gotten better I think I like McCarthy top 20 more than Pavone if I had to think you know if I had to choose one of the two because Denny again I just don’t know how much off the te is going to matter if you’re if you’re thinking off
The te is going to um be a pretty big factor I’d be pretty wary of Denny cuz you see the off has been really bad lately but the guy is an all World putter generally is is a is a par getter you see how well he plays when it’s
Difficult I think I like Denny McCarthy more than Pavone in a top 20 instance if they’re you know in the same ballpark in terms of odds I I haven’t looked that closely in terms of top 20 odds I just fired off a couple of wind Wagers early
This morning or when they came out you know later this morning but I think I think that’s where I’m at with the two players you’ve asked about Tony at least you know on a Monday night and you I haven’t made my mixed condition model I’ll be doing that in you know tomorrow
Into Wednesday but I think that’s where I’m at right now so anyway there is a look at your top birdies game and bogey avoiders when rounds are difficult don’t know if we’re definitely going to have some bogey avoidance in the mixed condition model it was hard hard to ignore just how much
The birdies gained both years was pretty darn correlating pretty darn correlating so might have a little bit of Bird’s gain too all right let’s uh let’s move to proximity just as a reminder the most prevalent proximities here or approach shots come from 150 to 200 more so the
175 to 200 of course anytime um and again like I said I will own when I’m wrong I have no problem about that but that’s the way I see it um you know 72 hours or 60 hours whatever we are from the start of the tournament so let’s see
How um or which if any of these proximities lead to Upper Echelon success here at PJ National well right off the bat kind of looks like the 150 to 175 was pretty darn strong last year I mean you had a really bad performance from Ryan brim but otherwise some pretty pretty
Big numbers in here for 150 to 175 14th fourth yeah Bryce Garnett you whatever bazay hoot was middling couple of top 15s your winner was fairly high like 150 175 looks pretty darn strong for proximity standards now the bottom half of the top 20 really tails off in 175 to 200 but
Look at the top 10 here in terms of 175 to 200 only one player negative he was horrendous at that range but only one player negative you had your cut making followed you know scattered in with some with some Elite performances like Justin Sun Ben Taylor but much much much more
So I’m seeing the 150 to 175 from last year 2022 procs yeah I mean it was there was no correlation seemingly in 2022 regarding either of these ranges my goodness there’s a lot of red in here 200 plus actually looks somewhat strong if we sort on this yeah there’s
Just there’s not much here I don’t see not much here several miscuts very high you see see how prevalent the 200 plus was or how correlating I should say the 200 plus was in 2022 so this is why proximity is always my weakest uh analytic um statistic in golf it just
Doesn’t make a lot of sense as a as a statistician with that said we’ll take a look at proximity I’m leaning towards the 150 to 175 but feel free to jump in chat if you want to see a specific range but I’m leaning 150 to 175 it’s not a strong lean
But um it might not actually make it into the into the mixed condition model at all I think I think this is the range I’m looking at if I put proximity in so your top proximity player from 150 to 175 Taylor pendrith Lucas Glover Sam Ryder Mark hubard Scott
Stallings Doug gim AA batia Justin low Matthew Pavone and Ben Martin so that is one thing that Pavone has going for him I think this might be the first list he has popped on is this uh proximity and that’s about the only range that he would pop on you see
Really bad from 175 to 2 really bad from 125 to 150 granted it’s a lot smaller sample size than all of these other players but you know small sample size data still is what it is he’s been very good at the 150 to 175 and good from
Really close 75 to 100 but not necessarily anywhere else all right let’s get into the part 3es fours and feses very quickly we’ve been going for quite a while and I still got a lot of stuff in Excel that I want to show you all so par
3s how where where they played I think they’re going to be pretty darn important um they are some of the hardest par 3s on the PGA tour uh not necessarily long but you think about the bear trap 15 16 17 half your part 3es 15 and 17 falling there overall pretty
Solid last year nothing astronomical you got a five from Shane Lowry couple of fours Chris kir your winner was a three so cut making other than Paul Haley and and Doc Redmond actually that’s not fair to these guys this this pretty strong here Trevor con was a clunker that’s pretty strong there and
Then Chris Kirk on down okay um if there’s a range looks like the biggest number is in the 175 to 200 3.2 a three but look at look at that horrendous um correlation a whole lot of Mis Cuts so the 150 to 175 didn’t matter at all 200 to 225 yeah only a
Two cut making but only a two looks like it was just total par 3es last year uh 2022 now SE straa didn’t play them astronomically well he played them okay kyama and burer and Woodland played them exceptionally well um much less correlating for sure if there’s a range I still think
It’s this one 3.2 yeah I think it’s the 175 to2 um let’s get this set for the par fours all right our top par three performers in the field this week just total par three performers Carson young Austin EO Tom hogy Alex norn Rory luk list padrick Harrington Matthew Pavone Grayson Sig
And CH chess Hadley surprised to see Eric Cole fall all the way to 17th cuz he’s generally very very strong in par 3es he must have been really bad yeah he had a bad round he’s had a couple of you know terrible rounds in par 3es lately
But he’s generally a very good par three player that’s why he played really well here last year um 175 to 200 Tyson Alexander there’s a name for you I don’t know how crazy I give with that look okay so look at that he’s just it’s just that’s his
Range he is hideous every other range but my God he plays this range well something I guess luk list Nico etaria Chris Kirk BR woo gup Jagger Novak Kohl’s and SMY let’s move to par fours going to be a little bit less this year again with the conversion of the
Par 41th to a par five you got one less Par Four now so a little bit less or at least at least a little bit mitigated in terms of importance I would think um looks like the 4505 was at least the most correlating here but not a single player negative in par
Fours your winner lead I mean they’re still going to be very very important still going to be very important um I mean big numbers in here my goodness 8 and 1/2 6 and 1/2 5 and a half and a specific length of par fours that’s pretty strong only one high Miss cut 450
To5 Fifth Fifth Fifth thirdd Fifth 15 or top 15 winner fifth that’s that’s strong 2022 again I just video game numbers on these par fours from Shane Lowry second 9th fourth first um 7 and 1/2 6 and 1/2 one and two at the tournament so 400 450 a little bit less there interesting
Looks like both of those ranges are going to be something to look at so total Par Four performance Rory Eric Cole Ben on Bo Hustler Henley minw Le Poston bazen hoot Glover and norin uh um in here let’s see Rory strong Eric Cole strong been on Sixth in both of those
Ranges of par fours po Hustler’s pretty strong Henley’s first and 30th noren 22nd and Ninth Ben Silverman 14th and 10th something to go on in par fors at least tther pendrith okay and then lastly you’re just going to have to try trust me on this par FES we’re going to look at one
Particular range it’s 500 to 550 because you get the par 53d at 538 you know have the converted power 4 at 525 or something to that effect and then 556 you can easily imagine pins and T’s being moved around and that comes down under the 550 threshold so we’re just
Going to be looking at par FS 500 to 550 Kevin you Johnny Vegas Doug gim Tom Kim Adam shank gaser or graser Sam Ryder Nick Dunlap Michael Kim Ryan Palmer all right um roughly 10 minutes remaining I’m sure we’re going to go over a little bit but let’s take a look at some
Microsoft Excel data first off let’s see how my mixed condition model performed last year um what metrics and filters I used and how predictive um predictive the model was right off the start uh mccarth a miscut two three so I had six miscuts in the top 20 that’s not great I’m looking
For four to five you know 20 to 25% so a little bit on the on the heavier side did have the winner he was very popular but I did have the winner in my top five that is something I had a very unique
Eric Cole in my top 20 so I do want to give myself credit for that Ben Taylor I wouldn’t say was extremely popular 8 and half% at least Pro Ed owned by the time we rolled around Wednesday night so it was okay you know I had some pretty good
Unique plays um McCarthy didn’t pan out you know of course I was really high on Callum Taran who didn’t pan out uh coocher didn’t pan out but overall it was okay I suppose what did I look at I had 15% in approach I think that’s a little bit light we’re going to
Be going even heavier on that I think 15% in par fors okay 10 % in bogey avoidance makes a lot of sense now I did have 10% in the 175 to 200 whereas it looked like the 150 to 175 was the more um correlating so we’ll see 10% in total
Par 3s I’m going to skip ahead a little bit and 5% in the 175 to 200 so pretty big emphasis in the par 3es and I’m feeling that way again this year uh the par 3s generally are just a pretty big deal around PJ National I had 5% on Fast and lightning Bermuda
Greens now that we have the sophistication I’ll say to um focus on just the courses that have Tiff Eagle Bermuda that’s what we’re going to do but these greens historically have been fast or lightning um this Vision will be skewed I apologize but uh we’ll bring up the historic
Conditions can no you’re not going to be be able to see that so I’ll change it just very quickly you see green speed fast 2022 it was lightning fast and lightning so they’ve sped up these greens over the years especially recently so I don’t hate the idea of
Looking at fast and lightning Bermuda greens but I’m just going to be looking at Tiff Eagle Bermuda now that we have that sophistication so Bay Hill kaaloa uh PJ National Port Royal and Sea Island so I had 5% in total putting and I had
5% in 10 to 15 ft uh and I vaguely remember um telling my viewers last year that um that we either solved the Matrix or we went off the rails I did have 5% double avoidance so we’ll see how predictive that was 5% greens when it’s difficult this needs to rise I think
This is going to be um much more important 5% sand saves now Gabe made made a really good point in his uh article that comes out every Sunday in his preparation for uh the week he said with all the water on the course uh professionals are just um conditioned to
Play away from the water so the bailout areas are bunkers essentially around PJ National um so that’s something to think about I know we didn’t look at sand saves this evening but it’s something to think about I mentioned it a little bit earlier this evening 5% scrambling when it was difficult uh that
Was not a very good metric as we’ll see and then finally 5% in the 400 to 450 par fours so how predictive were these I’m generally looking for um metrics that are in the 50s you know low 50s or even better um this just speaks to the
Volatility of PJ National with all the water on the course um 68 not great but honestly it’s you know kind of half you Midway in terms of performance par fours were pretty pretty good relative to the others bogy avoidance wasn’t um par 3es weren’t the
Best was these par 3’s 175 to 200 and the 10 to 15 ft but it’s still not crazy good into the sense that I I think I want to use it again but it was the best um and this is why I’m really really hesitant on using scrambling when rounds
Are difficult because it was just horrendous in terms of predictability so um not sure what we’re going to what we’re going to Garner from last year’s mixed condition model but we clearly have room for improvement uh considering we had six of the top 20 missed the cut so room for lots of improvement
Absolutely but I do like several of these of these metrics in here definitely going to move some percentages around that’s for sure okay close that out let’s go to what I really like to do uh in a data dive show let’s take a look at PJ National really dig into the heavy
Metrics and the heavy numbers for PGA National now Sunday nights I I compare the course against other full field courses on the PGA tour Monday nights let’s just we just dig into to the course by itself you see approach has been the biggest um metric across you know the past five years and
We could probably remove this um Year from five years ago and it’s going to change it drastically cuz look how much the putting was that year and how little the approach was but the approach has been pretty solid four years we’ve had a couple of years where the around the green was
Solid but look at the last two years it kind of really didn’t play all that much really didn’t play all that much instead it was off the tea it really was um you know three times the importance here or maybe even four times the importance last
Year um a little bit more than three times the importance in 2022 too so perhaps we do need to perhaps I need to um consider off the tea a little bit more here um moving to driving and greens none of these numbers really stand out um that’s a pretty low number for greens
Uh especially like if you look at the Genesis it’s more than a half a shot more important like the Arnold Palmer’s 3/10 of a shot next week the players is much more important so um Green’s not really a big deal the last five years surprisingly good drives gained one massive
Year but really kind of middling kind of middling so not sure what I’m going to do on this page view I’m sure I’ll have something from here but I’m not sure looking at scoring birdies and Bogies again as I mentioned last year was a pretty big
Outlier when the birdies was a you know full shot more important but look at every other year bogy avoidance more important bogy avoidance pretty darn close to to to even but still lean bogie avoidance and bogy voidance so last year looks like it was a pretty big outlier
Still might consider putting 5% Bird’s gained when it’s difficult because it I mean other than 2022 it’s actually been a very consistent metric really has been and as statisticians we like consistency moving to the part threes fours and fives this is where we’re really going to gain um gain some
Advantage see where the Strokes gained come in these particular lengths so look here almost one full shot out of a 1.55 so almost 2/3 of your Strokes gain total in par 3es come from 1 75 to 200 now they have fallen off a little bit in
Terms of importance but so are the par 3s in general so that’s why we’ve been separating out the 175 to 200 tonight a little bit I still think it’s correct to do so we’ll be looking at all par threes but we’re probably going to have
5% in 175 to 200 and it the stats and the numbers just back that up to look at that range looking at the par fours um a little bit different here now the 4450 is you know almost a full shot more important than than the next two highest
But two out of a 4.6 you know you’re still not getting even 50% of your Strokes gain total in a Range looks like looks like we’re just going to be looking at Strokes gained par 4 in general in totality no specific range however if there is a range it is
Going to be the 400 to 450 not sold that I’m going to do that but that’s the range that we would want to look at and then lastly in these par fives 80 gosh dang it I went to the foret I apologize Honda 80 almost 88% 08 out of
0.9 88% of The Strokes gain total par fives here at the at the cognizant at at PJ National come in this range of par fives so that’s why we’re just going to be looking at 500 to 550 throughout the week that’s why it’s it’s going to be the only
Range um in the final mixed condition Model come Wednesday night 88% of your Strokes gain total par fives fall into this range all right with that let’s end the show off like we typically do we’re a little bit late or over on time but I love the interaction
So if there are more questions I I’ll Stick Around can’t be I try to keep it under or at an hour but all right this is performance at PJ National the past 5 years let’s take a look at some specific metrics that we think or know that is
Going to play well and who has played well or who is done the best at those metrics at PJ National so your top iron players at PJ National past five years Justin loward just one Tournament Justin SS just one tournament there’s Gary Woodland been very very good with the
Irons very good ball striking he hasn’t been a he hadn’t been terrible with the putter either Russell Henley lots of success here Eric Cole was really good last year there’s Matthew n Smith three for three in making the cut average finish of a 33rd pretty pretty
Solid um Sam Ryder three for three Shane Lowry four for four four uh Brandon Woos hit the irons well but he his short game has been atrocious been on three for four ex SE straa winner two years ago has been really good at basically everything four for five
Lashley Wallace only two for four but a lot of good finishes pick four gol golfers to no matter the ODS oh um I tell you what I uh this is a little bit of for foreshadowing but um I really like Matt Fitzpatrick this week uh think
Ben Martin can top 20 oo that’s a oh that’s a really good one Ben Martin now there’s a name um top five see um the thing with with Ben Martin like you just don’t expect him to put up six on um putting week in and week out like this
Just seems like it was a good putting week having said that I mean he was good with his approach he was fine around the green and off the tea but this don’t get caught up in the fact that he was a top five a lot of that was on on the
Putter um I really like Fitzpatrick this week I really like Fitzpatrick this week week he should be in here I’m going to have to go to micros or um oh fantasy National cuz he has played the cognizant or the or the Honda um hogy interesting well here’s another thing with with Fitzpatrick you
Think about his wins other than the the uh US Open been on Bermuda loves Bermuda RBC Heritage very good look how good he is when difficult look how good he is in the wind this is this sets up pretty darn well for Fitz don’t forget he did top 15
You know not too long ago I know the Genesis was bad but he’s also played Honda a couple of times it wasn’t great but it was a long long time ago he’s not that same player I really like Fitzpatrick I I I always look at Fitzpatrick when it’s difficult when
Pars are are good scores I like Fitzpatrick McNeely I don’t hate I don’t hate um he has been playing much better lately this is what’s going to kill him this week I think I know his form’s terrible that’s fine but he also topped 15 two tournaments ago at the waste
Management people forget that he missed the cut at the Genesis but he top 15 the waste management we just saw it so I’m all about some Fitzpatrick uh mcne is in great form yes I do worry about the irons do worry about the irons how’s he done at the
Honda 11th few years ago miscut before that okay I don’t I don’t hate it I don’t hate it um four top 20s for you Tony let me think about that let me go through cuz I’m going to I’m going to lose my train of thought let me let me go through this
Some players might might pop up for me all right so there’s your top iron Players let’s look at the top Putters you’re going to have to putt well here at PJ National again Ben Taylor just one time Eric Cole again one time Ben Martin Dylan wo two for two and coming off a
Pretty good Mexico open something to think about I would not expect him to go Gang Busters like he has in two tournaments but two is double the sample size of one so maybe he just really likes these greens um Lee Hodes there’s Daniel Burger that’s probably somebody that’s a
Good top 20 right there is Daniel Burger I know he’s coming off injury he loves this place you see he’s three for three the past five years average finish of a top 15 average finish of a top 15 Burger’s probably at Fair odds too for a
Top 20 to put in a parlay somebody to think about he just loves this place um Johnny Vegas is putt well here and these are these are guys like cam champ last week at Mexico Hideki at at the Genesis when guys are are generally not good
Putters yet have putt well at a certain course you got to take notice of that and Johnny Vegas is not a good putter but you see he is play played this every single year the past past five years he’s not missed a cut he’s averaged a 27th Place finish I know that doesn’t
Sound great but that’s an average so I mean he’s top 15 perhaps even top 10 but he is averaged gaining two and a half Strokes on the greens here so you got to take notice of that coming off a cut made at Mexico Johnny Vegas is somebody to think about for
Sure I do worry about mcarthy because of the irons I know they’re getting better but I do I still worry about that um I’m definitely going to go Fitzpatrick and burger in terms of this top 20 kind of want to take a look at a couple other things here real quick well
There’s your top Putters the past five years at PJ National um I don’t want to skip the driving and greens I’m going to go with good drives gained cuz I generally go with greens so let’s take a look at good drives gained I’m I’m on the fence on what I want to
Do in this in this page view but Sam Ryder gosh dang it three for three Henley very good Shane Lowry probably somebody you want to consider very very strongly for a top 20 considering he’s four for four average finish inside the top 20 that’s somebody to think about sep
Straa loves this place you see the good drives gained there uh Burger again Davis Ry only two for two but he’s been good with a good drives gain Tyler Duncan could be a price who’s played well fairly well here I would say this doesn’t feel like a good Ryan
Palmer Course but he’s actually been okay um moving into scoring let’s take a look at bogy avoidance again bogey avoidance specifically at PJ National the past five years shkim Taylor pendri two for two there’s Henley again Lowry Dylan Woo Lee Hodes two for two average finish of 12th Bud colly
Sunj Woodland Gary uh Woodland Gary yes of course that’s the same person you [ __ ] so Gary Woodland SE straa Chris Kirk uh got to take off catch up with the you yeah absolutely thanks Darnell really appreciate you jumping in chat and and the interaction and stuff and
We’re going to see we can’t turn our luck around this week uh to start the floor to swing so really appreciate it uh hopefully I will see you on Wednesday night um there’s McNeely Burger Palmer um we’ll take a look at par 3es and then par fives cuz we’ve been going on quite
A bit so par 3es burer uh stalling Stephan joerger three for three there’s Henley Woodland again Baden hoot is two for two here decent performance in the par 3s Keith Mitchell a previous winner back in 2019 Chris Kirk Ryan Palmer Ricky been okay here yes that’s that’s the goal uh
Especially after a fantastic Genesis open where you know humble brag I had Hideki at 70 to1 you know and a good DFS week it kind of came crashing down a little bit last week we’re going to try to turn it around um lastly here these par fives 500 to
550 higo Keith Mitchell Vinson’s been okay here three for three Riley horel Luke list has played the par five well but you see he’s 0 for three with a average finish outside of 90th so no thanks sunj Mark hubard Poston straa all right let me sort on this
Finish definitely have three names for you I have to think about the fourth real quick um Tony so average finish smallest to largest definitely going to put um burger and Lowry into this Vegas could be interesting because I imagine he’s probably a pretty good price but I think these two for sure you
Would want to want to consider quite heavily sep straa makes a whole lot of sense as well he’s just played extremely well here at um at PJ National and you see the ball striking and he’s not a ball Striker per se he’s much more of a of a Putter and a short
Game but if we look at straa like he’s he’s he loves this place he really does the form is okay gosh dang it I need to change the view for you um you know kind of middling off the tea which is fine the irons are hot and
Cold so you got to you know kind of hope for an hot week but top 15 the century pretty much top 25 Pebble Beach I don’t hate tra again the wind difficult he hadn’t been the best on Bermuda but um so let’s go with Burger Lowry sep straa
And I like I said I’m just really hung on Fitzpatrick so that’s going to be the four player parlay that that I’ll say on a Monday night um and that you know I could change based on you know what the mixed condition model spits out come Wednesday
But probably not going to be a a very high paying top 20 parlay but I think those are those are four solid candidates um to be there come Sunday but that’s going to be it for the show tonight I appreciate Tony p and Darnell for jumping in chat I really appreciate
It was a fun show all the interaction uh quick reminder the DFS tactic show will in fact be at 9 p.m. on Wednesday we are finally done with the 1000 p.m. uh nonsense so the DFS tactic show will now be at 900 PM again um and if you have not seen the research
That I posted over on social media I ask that you go look that up um not a lot of a pattern for the past eight Champions here at the P at PJ National because it’s a pretty volatile course with all the water but did give you a couple of
Of patterns of former winners and the players who uh fit that criteria in the field this week so thanks again for for all of the interaction in chat for you three jumping in there thanks to everyone else out there who Tunes in watches listens supports the channel by liking the videos commenting and
Subscribing it’s much appreciated love what I do taking in-depth look at sports statistics uh from a you know D a statistician and data analysts perspective trying to help us all win a little money in the process uh so hopefully we’ll see you Wednesday night for the DFS tactic show for all the
Wagers you’ve made so far for the cognizant classic for all the Wagers you’re thinking about making this week for the condis and classic and until I see you at the normal time of 900 p.m. for the DFS tactics show may all your bets be profitable
