Set your reminders for the sports betting shows every week (all times Eastern):
Sunday 9pm – PGA Initial Research
Monday 9pm – PGA Data Dive
Wednesday 9pm – PGA DFS Tactics
Friday 9pm – Friday Night Chill Stream
Friday Night Chill Stream content will vary so stop by and hang out! Like someone once said “It’s like a box of chocolates…you’ll never know what you’re gonna get.”
Follow me on Social Media where my betting cards for the PGA tournament of the week will be placed:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Kapta1NKahl
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/Kapta1NKahl
Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/kapta1nkahl
Kick: https://kick.com/kapta1nkahl
Subscribe to Gabe’s weekly article for a great beginning to your weekly research and give him a follow over at Twitter @glzisk
Fun show for you all uh looking forward to it so let’s get into it all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money uh there are a lot of great golf analytic tools out there
There there’s no doubt about that I simply believe fantasy National is the best go check out fantasy national.com it’s going to make you a much smarter golf Gambler and a much better golf DFS player uh you’re not going to regret going to check out fantasy national.com in the description to the
Video there are links to all of the social media first off my ex and Instagram where earlier today I posted a little bit of research around the prior winners of the Vidant or of the Mexico open at Vidant more specifically more so based around the 12 players who had top
Five the first two years here at Vidant uh the metrics and the pattern that they have followed um and then the players uh in this year’s field who fit that criteria so if you want to see that research this week and every week on the
PGA tour then give me a follow at your preferred social media site X is where I also place my betting cards and my weekly player usage or top player usage uh for the DFS contests I play so if you want to see those pieces of information
Give me a follow over X as well lastly for social media gab’s handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe uh it’s a great way to start your week of preparation and then he continues to provide his own version of course
History recent form in his own way uh and while I am on the topic I’m going to give Gabe a very proper shout out if you did not see my post last night over on social media uh a very big shout out to Gabe for having two lineups in the m
Micro birdie uh this past week at the Genesis uh two inside the top 20 and one inside the top 10 so a fantastic week for Gabe uh over on DFS so again I don’t uh recommend Gabe just just to recommend him it’s a very very good read his
Article every week uh when you get two analytic Minds together you’re generally going to come up with some pretty good results and and Gabe really really crushed it this past week at the Genesis so sincerely go follow him over on social media and subscribe to that
Article it’s going to give you a big leg up on your competition and to subscribe to that article is free to do um now there is no uh chat this week uh he let me know that uh earlier this week or or earlier today I should say so no chat
This week over in his substack chat but normally uh if you are a subscriber to his article you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat um every Wednesday as we continue the DFS talk after calls calls but no chat this week
Uh but I wanted to give a proper shout out to Gabe uh he jumped into chat at the very end of the show last night was not able to give him a proper shout out since uh he sent me a message uh over on X right before the show started um so
Again a huge congratulations to Gabe if you see him or or follow him already on social media send him a congratulations it was a big big week for him and then lastly we are Live Chat is open I want to hear from you all if you all had
Success at the Genesis uh let me know I would love to be able to shout out more members of the community that had success I know Jeff was in chat last night had a little bit of success Darnell I don’t think um had as much success as he generally does yet a
Little bit too much Justin Thomas I think a lot of people uh fell victim to that but if you have success whether that’s in fantasy golf Fantasy NBA I know football’s over but baseball’s coming up in whatever Wagers and DFS contests that you partake in if
You have success and you’re a member of this community please let me know either in chat reach out to me on social media would love to be able to shout out members of the community who have success but I want to hear from you all in that regard uh have you made any
Wagers uh for the Mexico open I certainly fired off a couple of numbers that I liked on players that I think have a pretty good Advantage this week uh and what do you know of Vidant what do you think plays well here so again would love well would love the
Interaction this evening uh so let’s dig into the weeds of the data for the 2024 Mexico open and we’re going to start as we always do on a Monday evening with the extended forecast of course no super forecast uh one because it’s just too far away usually comes out uh maybe 24
To 48 hours in advance uh but since this oh so we do have a super forecast but no uh no gcsaa tournament fact sheet that has not changed from last night so we’ll definitely take a look at the super forecast uh Wednesday to begin the DFS
Tactic show but in terms of a forecast uh this far out uh there doesn’t seem to be much very little wind um now it is important note that the wind generally does pick up in the afternoon and you do see that um in all four days of the forecast however it’s
Picking up to still very very um slight increases I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw gusts into the 10 to 15 mph range but at least this far out from the tournament you know whatever we are 60 hours um maybe even closer to 72 hours away from the tournament we’re not going
To be looking at anything in terms of wind for uh for this evening with that filter there does not appear to be too much wind in the forecast so instead we’re going to go ahead and just jump straight to Fantasy National do a couple of quick reviews here from last night
And then uh dive in to these prior leaderboards for the Mexico open one of the first and and uh most common filters that we’re going to use this week is this long course filter this over 7,400 yards and that’s why I’m going back two years because there isn’t um a whole lot of
Data you see even Tony fenale doesn’t have 36 rounds he only has 34 um but we’re going to do what we can in terms of this long course filter so on Long courses those that are defined as over 7,400 yards and Vidant certainly qualifies that um I know I gave the uh
Yardage last night at 7,550 or so it’s much closer to the 7,500 range but it’s going to play every bit of that 7,500 um yardage because there are there’s very very little elevation change at this course it is just it is just long and flat much like Tor Pines
Um not as difficult as Tori but certainly along those um kind of similar layout and structure very flat very long so in the past two years your top performers on Long courses those defined as over 7,400 yards Sam Stevens Nate Lashley Nikolai hoard Michael Kim Kevin Chapel Nico etaria Tony fenale Harry
Hall Jimmy Walker and Jake knap again skipping Wills Al Horus he has with drawn there have been no more field changes that I have seen um so feel free to jump in chat and correct me if you have seen other field changes the only two field changes I’ve seen so far as
They were last night will Gordon and will zorus but there’s a look at your top um performers uh total performers when courses are long and I think the only other thing that we’re going to do uh in terms of uh looking at Strokes gain total and a
Review from last night let’s just go ahead and click on this pass palum filter uh we’re not going to do anything with putting on pass palum because the only rounds of data that we get putting for on pass palum is here at Vidant the past two years you see even the
Worldwide technology which was moved from mayaa or El chameleon to El Cardel at damante we don’t even get the putting statistics there from this past FedEx fall Puerto Rico corales we never get those um individual I’ll say individual statistics The Strokes gained off the te approach we just get strokes gain total
So because of that um we’re just going to be looking at Strokes gain total on pass palum courses but I still think it fits pretty well because these Caribbean events are all played on P palum uh and the courses that we are looking at in terms of this subset of data Coco
Beach the host of the PTO Rico open corales of course the host of the corales punana El Cardell at Diamante where the wwt was this past FedEx fall and Vidant these four courses make up the um kind of comparison course set that i’ that I’m going to be looking at
A lot this week they’re all played in the Caribbean they all have Pas palum greens they’re all long and with the exception of of L cardal um and uh and the wwt this past FedEx fall they all play to about average they’re not birdie fests now um the worldwide technology certainly was
You had van royan at 27 coocher at 25 you see every single round played easy but all of these other courses Puerto Rico or coco beach and the host of the Puerto Rico Coralis and even here at the Mexico open it’s not a birdie Fest they they play to about average certainly on
The easier end of average but but average in terms of difficulty now the the one Omission that you might be thinking of these Caribbean style courses is the old host of the mayakoba uh El camon I do not like that as a compar comparison course because not
Only does it typically play easy very easy it’s also short it also measures right at 7,000 yards so that would squarely fall into the short course filter so that’s why I don’t like using uh Mya COA as a as a comparison course per se now if you want if you were able
To find some putting statistics from myoba um it’s they are pass pal green so you could maybe apply that but as a whole I don’t like using myoba or or El C Leon as a as a comparison course so on Pas palum courses so the the four
Courses that that I’ve mentioned uh the host of the Puerto Rico Coco Beach corales El Cardell and Vidant on those four courses in the past two years your top performers at those courses have been Tony fenale Brandon woo I’ll zoom in a little bit here for you Nate
Lashley Sam Stevens Carson young Harry Hall Cameron Champ Michael Kim Alex SMY Kevin chapel and Vincent Norman of course Brandon woo has played the Mexico open immaculately a second and a third fenal a second and a first Sam Stevens has played very very well on the uh
Comparison courses I believe a top five at the corales or maybe was Puerto Rico he top fed one of these and I think top 20 the other he’s played very well on these uh Caribbean style or in these Caribbean style events Harry Hall played very well at the corales Cameron Champ
Has torn up Vidant uh Chapel Norman also notice these guys can move it these guys move it pretty decent off the te of course Tony fenale Cameron Champ’s always going to be at or near the top of the distance leaderboards Harry Hall fairly long as well Smalling maybe not so much but um
But certainly very accurate a very good ball Striker as you see seventh off the T 14th and approach uh Norman really moves it even Kevin Chapel moves it hyar moves it so these guys can really move it off the te and you see they are rising quite considerably um in The Strokes gain
Total past palum courses uh cuz length length is a pretty big factor at all four of these places especially Coco Beach corales and Vidant all right so with that that’s going to take care of the kind of review from last night U moving into the night let’s go ahead and just jump straight
Into the prior leaderboard shall we get a feel for what’s been playing well at vidon and what hasn’t going to have to zoom out a little bit so we can see the putting but take a look at last year’s Tony fenale win and this is just the top
Four 14 due to ties you see off the te such a major factor 5.2 from Tony 6.1 from John ROM you have a 5.1 a little bit further down in Carson Young Who top 15 some other you know big performances Cameron Champ um off the tea going to
Carry a decent significant amount of weight second 1st 15th 8th 24th now you do have a miscut fairly high up here from Brent Grant he drove it pretty well last year didn’t do anything else correct uh but you got quite a bit of correlation here behind this miscut and
A uh pretty poor performance from Raul Pera um Iron Play Just huge amounts of correlation so even though off the tea is going to have um some some extra significant weight we saw a little bit of that last night in uh in Microsoft Excel and we’ll expand
On that a little bit this this evening we’re not going to ignore the approach either uh fifth couple top 20s fourth middling to you know perhaps clunker depending on your definition from Gary Woodland top 25 a fifth a first pretty big stuff here in terms of the of the
Approach around the green you know maybe some cut making Brandon woo was pretty good around the green but you see he was mainly in the putting he got some cut making but not a whole lot of correlation especially if you look at the finishing positions for the around
The green versus you know approach it’s just massive in terms of the difference putting again not so much not sure there’s going to be much that we’re going to do with putting I’m still kind of torn on whether I want to put 5% uh on pass palum which essentially
Would be a player’s historical um putting at Vidant I don’t know how I feel about that so I’m kind of torn between between putting and just putting Strokes gain total past palum in the Final Mix condition model but you see putting was a fairly decent uh decently
Big deal last year uh do you think these kinds of tournaments are harder without bigger names actually no I really enjoy these um these tournaments in terms of DFS I really do enjoy these tournaments because one it gives you uh a look at some of the Lesser known Commodities on the PGA tour
And by the time we get to you know I’m just going to throw out some tournaments here just for example if we get to things like the valpar the Valero we move on later on in the season to perhaps the John Deere and things of that nature you have a decent idea of
How these lesser known players play and how and if they are going to be a good fit so I really do like that in in that regard uh and I really like these tournaments because not a lot of the um not a lot of people pay attention to
These style events so you can really really have a big week if you’re willing to put into work um I’ve said since I’ve started the channel I guess now it’s been two two and a half years ago uh that my My best performances have been at the alternate field events the the
Best week I’ve ever had was at the corales uh a couple of years ago where I had I think three top 10 lineups uh just because I was willing to put in the work when everybody else was focused on the match play that week it’s
A bigger the match play is a much bigger tournament yes but by being willing to put in the work on the alternate field event that that week and that year I had a huge day or huge week around the Corral so I really do like these uh
Style of tournaments um for this week and then moving forward it gives you a a leg up on a majority of uh people in the in the DFS Community can’t say all cuz there are Maniacs like me who look at everything and and and whatnot uh masochists if you will but it really
Does give you a big leg up uh if you’re willing to put in the work now in terms of outright Wagers it’s really tough um you know players like Patrick Rogers opened at 35 Tony fenale was you know 6 and2 he might even be lower than that
Now 6 and a half to one hoard was your second choice in the betting Market at 16 to1 so again outrights are tough in these Mark in in these kind of tournaments but there’s a lot of value to be had again willing to put in the work not to overlook The Putting for
Vidant still going to be kind of kind of torn on that uh on what I’m going to do if we look at 2022 so hopefully that answer your question there Jeff uh famous last words you know coming off the massive week of the Genesis you know
Very very well could have a let down this week but I really do like these tournaments uh from an analyst’s perspective um we look at 2022 John ROMs win and again looking at the top 14 just due to ties only one player negative in off the te only one player negative in
Putting around the green was much you know much less of a factor than it was last year some big big numbers in off the tea Cameron Champ 5.9 ROM your winner was second and off the te some middling performances from ch3 Doug gim but a lot of correlation here the
Approach very elite at the top falls off a little bit you have a you know a pretty poor finish from Lee Hodges here who just didn’t putt well but his irons were fantastic tringali middling and saying you’ll know um miss the cut uh doesn’t look like he kept it anywhere near the course
But yet his irons were good but a decent amount of correlation in the approach from two years ago and of course if you’re performing well you’re going to be making some putts but we’re going to be looking at a lot of ball striking just a ton of ball striking this week um
And we’ve seen that through these past couple of leaderboards so in the past let’s bring this in here to the last 12 months and 36 rounds make sure I don’t have any other filters applied for now your top off the tea players in the past 36 rounds or 12 months has been MJ
Duffy your number one off the tea player Tyler Duncan Keith Mitchell Johnny Vegas Doug gim Cameron Champ Stephan Jagger Vincent Norman Garrick higo and Alejandro tosy oh and excuse me and Eric Van royan uh so those 11 have been the top of the off the tea you’ll notice that
Doug gim no longer is top 10 in both of the ball striking categories like he was last night that means that the Genesis has been loaded in um from this past week but something else that I kind of we could kind of look at let’s take a look at off the te
On Long courses when driver is in your hand meaning everybody is taking driver we’ll have to ex expand this just a little bit when on Long courses your top off the tea players in the field this week Keith Mitchell Johnny Vegas Cameron Champ Tony fenale Kevin DH only
Three rounds so you know put a Asis there little bit of grain of salt but he has performed well on Long courses off the tea Alejandra toasty Joseph bramlet milanio Davis Thompson and Parker cudy are your top 10 Again skipping Wills out he is not playing this week so there’s a
Look at your top uh players off the tea on Long courses and then you know we we already covered the top 10 off the tea uh with no filters just off the tea in general I’m not going to use the uh long cour filter for approach me personally I I
Think that’s where the proximities come in but your top Strokes gain approach players in the past 36 rounds or 12 months whichever happens your top Strokes gain approach players chz reevy Mark hubard Tony phenow Justin low Russell Knox Kelly craft JJ spawn Alex SMY Ryan Moore and Callum Taran are
Your top 10 in that regard so probably honor hble mention here for Callum Taran um he’s really really good at all of these metrics except for the putting um in the past 36 rounds of course Tony fenale honorable mention he’s he’s only 33rd off the te the third and
Irons maybe spawn and SMY a little bit U dug gim has been the best fifth and 15th Taylor pendri also 24th and 19 so couple players there to to look at with all the focus on the ball striking not going to do any around the green and i’ I’ve
Talked already quite a bit about the putting and and why I don’t think I’m going to do much putting so let’s just go ahead and get this prepared for the fairways and the greens take a look at last year’s leaderboard uh distance fairly big factor you have a couple of players
Negative up here but look -3 – 6 -5 or – 6.8 – 5.8 that’s pretty darn close to field average over four rounds all of these players are are moving it a decent bit off the team and of course John ROM and fenale but Cameron Champ Hall like I
Said moves it a little bit Grio was moving it off the te only a couple players negative in Greens as well if we sort will Gordon who’s not in the tournament this week but you see he led in distance top 25 cam champ now Matty Schmid had a lot of distance but didn’t
Perform particularly well clearly Miss cut Trevor con much the same but couple of top 10 and a top 20 from Kevin Roy middling from Ben on there’s fenale distance going to be a decent bit of a factor I’m more so focused on off the te I think but distance is still a huge
Factor just because I don’t think Fairways are going to be much of anything these are some pretty big numbers but these Fairways are pretty darn wide they’re pretty easy so I don’t know how much I want to factor in Fairway Ways by themselves I think
That’s just kind of the focus on off to te instead looking at greens top 20s top 10 winner top five runner up top 20 you know middling from Gary Woodland top 25 so greens also a decent Factor looking at 2022 the inaugural Mexico open and John ROMs win look at all the distance
Here especially at the top I mean Tony fow was even negative by a slight margin but still negative cam champ uh Brandon woo Kurt kyama John ROM these players are going to have drivers in their hand so you got to look at a little bit of the distance I think this week your
Winner Leed top 10 top 10 some Clunkers couple of miscuts also we look at Fairways not a whole lot of correlation you got some big numbers up here but like Brennan Todd the plotter lots of fair Airways but was pretty poor cuz he didn’t have a lot of distance Adam long made it
Work kadra made it work a little bit but for the most part it’s not really the fairways that we want to look at and if we look at greens I mean just dumb numbers second 6 10th 24th 2 sixth 1 6 six 12 some 10 eight seven so I’m
Looking at the distance I’m looking at greens from this page view um you know early on this week in my analysis so in the past two years and I’m going to two years because we’re going to add this long course filter in the past two years or 36 rounds your top driving distance
Players on Long courses Nikolai hoard Cameron Champ Maddie Schmid Joseph bramlet Chris gup Kevin Chapel Vincent nor Norman Alejandra toasty Ryan brim and Johnny Vegas so these players when driver is forced into your hands these guys are still uh gaining distance on everybody and some of these players are actually
Not too terrible in terms of the fairways and that’s why they’re so um off the te Centric you think of somebody like mty Schmid uh pretty good driver of the golf ball in general um Johnny Vegas uh very much off the tea based player have you ever done a video breaking down
How you get your player pool finalist I have not um I don’t know if that is something that that people are interested in I can if if that’s no one’s really ever asked that Jeff to be honest with you um generally speaking I just kind of like running through the
Stats and I let I try to give the power to you um based on what I’m seeing and what I think is is going to be um the most prevalent that week in terms of metrics and the players that you might want to look at uh but no I’ve I’ve not
Really done a video um specifically on how I break or you know U narrow down my player pool so um if there’s enough interest in it i’ I’d absolutely do it it’s just something I’ve never really thought about um I just didn’t know if they would be interest in that to be
Honest um so there’s a look at the driving distance um players and the top uh driving distance players on Long courses I can tell you verbatim that this um this metric and filter combination greens gained on Long courses will be in the mixed condition model I don’t know what percentage yet
But we’re definitely going to be taking this metric and filter combination into Wednesday so your top greens gained players on Long courses in the past couple of years HRI norlander Alex SMY Tony fenale Nate Lashley Joseph bramlet Nikolai hoard Josh Teeter Jake knap JJ spawn and Johnny Vegas uh players like
Josh terer Jake knap they have you know fewer rounds than uh most of these other players so you know maybe put a little star or asteris next to them since it’s a small sample size but they have performed well in those um situations U but players like Tony F now and SMY
Who’s had quite a bit of success here at Vidant Nate Lashley we’re going to talk about quite a bit once we get to Microsoft XL because I did um gather some P palum or some comparison course uh data we’ll talk about Nate Lashley quite a bit bramlet hoard so there’s
Your top players uh with greens on Long courses been going quite a while already uh still got a lot to cover so I’m going to go uh try to speed this up a little bit because I do have quite a bit in Microsoft XL I’d like to cover so last
Night we saw that um bogey avoidance uh looked to be the more prominent scoring metric to look at other than uh rather than Bird’s gained now like I say every week majority of the time the higher numbers are going to be in the birdies gain I’m kind of looking for consistency
Here and right as I was saying it not a single player in the top 14 last year was negative in bogey avoidance now granted there was only one negative in in Bird’s gained as well um again the bigger numbers will be in the birdies gained 1 second 15 third eighth a
Middling from Scott piery but this is some really really strong correlation um much to my um surprise cuz I thought it would be bogy avoidance but that’s very very strong bogy avoidance you had a couple of you had a miscut from Matty Schmid a little bit less in terms of
Correlation but don’t overlook the fact that you’re winner LED in that category LED and Bird’s gained or excuse me lad in bogy avoidance he also LED in Bird’s gain so um and in 2022 bir’s and Bogey’s um yeah your winner actually was more in the bogey avoidance
Kama was much more in the bird’s game but bogy bogy avoidance higher bogy avoidance higher bogy avoidance higher so in 2022 it looked much more like bogey of voance yeah look at this first second second 6th 11th 13th couple 15 some more top 10 just under liota
Whereas in the birdies gained you had some Stellar performances but nothing uh on the level of correlation that we just saw on the bogeys so last year it looked like it was birdie gain 2022 looked like it was it was bogey avoidance so take your pick I’m still leaning towards bogey avoidance
But we’ll take a look at both and I think it’s probably apt that we look at opportunities gained so in the last two years on Long courses your top opportunities gained players have been Ryan Palmer Trace Crow Roberto Diaz Michael Kim Eric Barnes Tony fenale Kramer hickcock MAV mcney Parker cudy
And chessen Hadley there’s your top 10 in Opportunities gained if we look at birdies or better Michael Kim Stevens Trace Crow Lashley ET of varia Kevin Dy Kevin Chapel JJ spawn hoard and Matia Schwab and then bogy avoidance Lashley hoard Dylan woo Brandon woo Sam Stevens Jimmy Walker Aaron badley Peter malady
Michael Kim and Jake knap so a lot of these players overlap here um just um performance on Long courses like Nate Lashley fourth and first hoard ninth and second now Dylan woo very very poor in the birdies are better game but uh outstanding in bogey avoidance uh Sam Stevens first and
Fifth Michael Kim first and Ninth spawn 9th and 11th ET varia 6th and 13th so again I’m leaning towards the bogey avoidance but I can also see myself wanting to put in some opportunities gained on Long courses moving right along into the proximity and this is one that I really
Really am wanting to dig into because 40% of the approach shots here at Vidant come from 200 plus but we saw last night that 175 to 200 at least in XL was the overwhelmingly more important statistic so we’re going to try and see if we can narrow this down a little bit top
14 I mean yeah look I mean there’s a lot of Great Performances here in this 175 to 200 last year 200 plus you had some good performances but you also had quite a few red uh or players that were uh under field average you sort that’s decent correlation for total
Procs couple middlings maybe even a clunker from Novak but a top five your winner second top 20 top 10 it’s not bad we sort not bad you get a couple miscuts somewhat High first and the fifth down here 200 plus pretty darn good at the top and
Then really falls off you can see how many miscuts are pretty high but at least in the you know elite elite level nun was bad but top 20 first fifth top 25 top 10 not terrible look at 2022 in the proximity okay so yeah more more of the 175 to 200 to
Me at least in the top four 14 there total proc is not nearly as correlating as it was last year not terribly correlating I would say there 200 plus little bit better than the 175 to 200 so maybe it is maybe we are looking at 200 plus just due to the correlation
Here that one it’s hard to argue that 175 to 200 is well um let’s get this ready for the part threes fours and fives so looking at proximity um I’m going to take off the long course to me proximity is proximity um you know from whatever yardage your top total procs
Players uh let’s bring that into the last well last 12 months top total procs players chz reevy Russell Knox mly norlander Ryan Moore Michael Kim Troy Merritt JJ spawn phenow and Stewart McDonald only four rounds so take it with a Grandin of salt but there’s your top 10 in total procs
Looking at 200 plus Carson young Harrison indicot JJ spawn cam champ Charlie Hoffman Tony fenale Bobby Mack Ryan Palmer MJ Duffy and Ben Taylor then to me I’m still thinking about the 175 to two so there’s your top 10 and 175 to 200 really a cross here chz reevy is
Pretty good at all number one in total procs number three from 175 to 200 still top 40 and 200 plus um Charlie Hoffman huge numbers here 14th total ninth and fifth JJ spawn ninth total 11th and third Carson young 12th and first Sammy valaki fewer rounds but very very
Talented young finish player 18th and 23rd probably worth a honorable mention even cam champ 24th and fourth worth an honorable mention so that’s how I see the proximity um it’ll be interested to see what I did last year in my mixan condition model which we’ll cover here
After a little bit let’s quickly go through the part threes fours and fives and then move to Microsoft XL part 3es look they’ve been pretty darn important there are five of them at this course five part 3es so you can see all but one player was pretty darn good at the part
3es and I mean you got some big numbers in here seven 5.1 5.1 big big numbers in here and some pretty darn big correlation as well now JB Holmes play the part 3 as well and missed the cut so I’m guessing there’s something around
That but um a lot of this is pretty darn correlating for these part 3s if there’s a range I think it’s this 175 to 200 but I don’t think I want to put a lot of stock into that um because if we go to that course breakdown just very quickly
It’s it’s it’s pretty well um pretty well balanced between the ranges pretty well balanced so we’re just going to be looking at total part 3s unless something in Microsoft Excel forces us to change but in even in 2022 part3 is a decently big factor 5.1 4.1 5.1 you see just the amount of
Players that were positive in the par 3s maybe not necessarily as correlating extremely up top but once you get past this you know Ben Cole’s kedc barnrat second top 15 a top 10 couple more top 15s winners and top 10 so lots lots going on there for the par 3s so your
Top par three performers the last 36 rounds uh make sure I don’t have any filters your top par three performers Justin Su Grayson Sig chz reevy Tom Whitney Austin eot Patty Harrington Carson Young young chessen Hadley M Meisner and Michael Kim moving into par fours I think they’re going to be a
Little bit mitigated but you still going to have to play them well we’re still going to have them in the mixed condition model because you see they’re still getting played above field average for the upper estelon of the leaderboard now what I would have thought the 450 to 500 seems to be the
Most important of the ranges but I’m going to tell you now like this 8.9 number from phenow and ROM last year that’s pretty low uh if you think about the Genesis or the waste management we’ve seen numbers as high as 15 uh lately in some of these prior
Leaderboards so this is actually fairly low uh of a of a total number here so they are getting mitigated somewhat you do have a Mis cut from mty Schmid but pretty solid around him if we sort on the 450 to 500 couple of high you or you know miscut from manty
Schmid who played that range extremely well but kind of matching the total par fours in terms of the correlation and 2022 yeah I mean these numbers are are pretty small 8.7 you’re getting quickly down into the 5.7 win the par 3s they were in the five you know 5.1 even we had a
7.1 in the 2023 par 3s par 4S just aren’t carrying as much weight but you see that it does appear that it is this range if there is a range so your top par 4 performers in the field this week chest and Hadley Rio hits atsun Ryan Moore hoard Thompson or
Davis Thompson Kelly craft Eric Van royan pendri Silverman and Ryan Fox uh just to to save some time we’re going to go just jump straight to the par five performance not going to look at any range unless EXL shows us that we need to your top par five performers Doug gim
Eric Van royan Taylor pendri Mark hubard Stephan joerger Tony fenale Thomas dietry Bronson Berg Marty or Zing do Johnny Vegas all right we got a lot to cover in Microsoft Excel so let’s go ahead and jump there very quickly last night we took a look at Vidant against
Other full field courses you know the average of the full field courses on the P PJ tour let’s just dig in just dig in uh solely on Vidant and see what these numbers can tell us so right off the bat the approach in the putting the two main
Shot types you would expect um the approach was a pretty big number from last year but look how much the off the te is just uh Far and Away more importantly around the green we’re just not going to be looking at around the green this year or this week we’re just
Going to be focused on this off the tea I mean just big numbers here big numbers in the off the tea I mean look at Wells Fargo where we are later this year for uh the wells uh Wells Fargo at Quil Hollow of course that is known that you
Need to be able to drive the golf ball I mean Mexico is 3/10 of a shot more important on off the tea than even the Wells Fargo uh you look at RBC Heritage uh even the PLAYERS Championship it’s you know still about two almost two10 of a shot more
Important um off the tea here in Mexico it’s just a big big factor so we’re going to be looking at quite a bit off the tea course of approach I talked about how uh I am still debating on what I’m going to do with putting if anything
Distance these are some big numbers in the driving distance big big numbers so we’re going to be looking at some distance absolutely but the reason why I don’t think Fairways are going to be a major factor look I mean one year it was kind of middling and last year didn’t
Matter at all I mean just did not matter at all instead it was these greens so that’s why I’m thinking it’s going to be greens and driving distance again this week it seems like it’s been that way for the past month or so just happens to
Be um the courses that we’re playing but um greens and distance are the two major factors this week at least in the first two years of this tournament moving to scoring a lot of times you’re going to get the birdies gained uh outweighing the bogey avoidance except if it’s a
Very tough course like the Wells Fargo like the Genesis um you see corales is pretty close with these being dead even essentially that really forces me to think it could be the bogey avoidance now the birdies game was a big thing last year it wasn’t really too much of a deal in
2022 so I would much rather focus on the consistent statistic you see how consistent the bogey avoidance has been the first two years I’d rather focus on the consistent metric par 3s big number here 2.04 that’s a big number um you know let’s let’s look at
Um for example the Genesis where we just were it was a 1.27 so 7/10 of a shot more important maybe even 8/10 Phoenix not nearly as as close in the par 3s these that these par 3es just matter here if there’s a range it does
Look like it’s the 175 to 200 but look less than half of your Strokes gain total coming in this this range it’s a pretty good even split here among all of these par 3s now yes the most important range by a good amount is this range here but it’s still not equating the
Half of your Strokes gain total in par 3es that’s why I’m thinking we’re just going to be looking at par 3es in total or in totality moving into the par fours much the same 4.1 which is actually pretty darn low I look at Wells Fargo later on
At qu Hollow more than a shot and 2/10 1.2 shots more important in the par fors there versus Mexico these par fors just aren’t that big of a deal somewhere like memoral where we are later in the year another difficult long course par fors aren’t as important so only a
4.1 again if there is a range it looks like it’s the 450 to5 but you got a fairly close amount between all of these long longer par fours so I think we’re just going to be looking at par fours in general and mitigated in importance par fives again pretty darn even you can’t
Get much more even than that so we’re just going to be looking at par fives now in 2022 the par fives weren’t a huge deal they got up to a pretty good amount last year so we’ll see maybe hopefully this third year will bring some consistency give us an idea on
Whether on which of these two are the outlier but there’s a look at Vidant in some deep dive statistic doesn’t look like we’re going to be looked at looking at any particular range of par five sorry off off your screen pretty darn even across all the ranges here uh par
Fours you could probably make a make a small argument to look at the 450 to 5 by themselves but still they are less than half of your total in power fours not sure I want to want to focus on this range if I do it’s 5% but we’re looking
At total par fours more than likely and then par 3es much the same less than half are in this most important range you can maybe make an argument to look at at or splitting out 5% here but I think I more so just like the fact of looking at all the par
3s so there’s look at Von in terms of some deep dive statistics the first two years Let’s uh let’s move to my mixed condition model from last year’s Mexico open see what I looked at how it how it fared last time I said this uh Phoenix ended up being a
Pretty pretty big disaster for me but this is a pretty good results-based mixed condition model I only had three of my top 20 missed the cut uh now yes John ROM and Tony feno were going to clearly be one and two um in almost everybody’s um rankings but I will give
Myself the slightest bit of credit for that first and second Brandon woo at you know an 11 a half% top five he was fourth we accept that amelon mrio right at 10% top five he was 11th we take that Dylan woo bramlet was somewhat popular B
Was not he was very very unique 20th in my rankings finished in the top 10 so this was a very very solid results based uh or results producing mixed condition model what did I look at 20% off the te’s just a huge Factor here 15% approach you can see just the heavy
Amount emphasis on ball striking that we have this week for Mexico and I’m feeling a lot of the same way I think if I had my brothers I’d probably switch these two percentages go 20% here 15% here but again just the the the takeaway
I want you to have is just focus on the ball sharkers this week 15% part fivs seems a tad bit on the heavy side might back that off a little bit uh bogey avoidance for some reason I forgot to list the uh filter that I use because you can
See the timeline is different on these three versus here when I went to 2021 I’m guessing this is Bo bogey avoidance on Long courses again I I don’t know I I didn’t put the filter on there like a dumbass I’m guessing this is bogey avoidance on Long courses
That’s essentially what we’re looking at um pretty darn good as well 10% 10% par 3es feels a little light so just like I mentioned with the approach and the off the T I feel like these need to be switched around a little bit maybe 15%
In the par 3s 10% in the par fivs you can see I just looked at those two uh Pars in totality I did have 5% in Opportunities gained 5% driving distance 5% in Greens I think that probably needs to be ra uh risen a little bit I did
Look at 200 plus interesting okay 200 plus and then I did set separate the 450 to 5 but you see how very little um weight that They carried in the mixed condition model only 5% of each so how predictive were these actually fairly good you probably would expect that from
A good results-based mixed condition model a 45 on average pretty darn solid I’m looking for something right around 50 so with 142 players a 45 is pretty solid approach is good par fivs are good now B avoidance was a little bit less uh not as correlating or or or predictive
As I would have liked it um okay part 3es okay opportunities gosh dang it off your screen apologies opportunities was the worst one there at a 59 so makes me kind of question whether I want to use opportunities as a metric distance also slightly less than than you know that optimal
Um number that I’m looking for at the 40 52 on the greens okay but the key takeaway other than this astronomically low number here on the the specific range of par fours just look how predictive the ball striking was across these other these other metrics that we used 45 and a 48 those
Were the two two of the three best par fivs were also pretty darn good as well so that’s a look at the mixed condition model that I made last year looks like we’re going to be doing a whole lot of the same of course moving some percentages around I will make sure to
Have the filter that I use this time like a but we’re looking at a lot of the same type of metrics which is comforting especially since this produced a pretty darn good results based um results based model so let me save that to uh the second to last thing I
Want to show now that we’ve gotten a feel for the metrics that we feel are going to be important here let’s just take a look at who’s performed well at those metrics and again it’s going to be pretty small sample size it’s only been two years of data but that’s all we have
To go on your best off the tea players at Vidant Cameron Champ Carson young Patrick Rogers of course Tony fenale Brandon woo I need to remove will Gordon I thought I did that my apologies um Brandon woo sh Kim top 25 lonto Griffin middling in terms of
Success but has been very good with the ball striking average finish of 40th in both years bramlet missed the cut one year and then performed very well so there’s your top off the te players the past uh or here at Vidant I’m going to say the past two years that’s not
That’s not what I mean because it’s only been two years your best iron players Tony feno there’s David lipsky kind of known when he is what he’s known for you can see everything else is pretty pretty bad to middling Novak there’s joerger Jagger’s been good also around
The green for what it’s worth needs to putt better here though but been very good with the irons EVR there’s Grio average finish inside the top 20 he’s also putt well here tosy or toasty however you say it because I butcher it I’m sure piery Sig Wallace been good with the irons not
Good with anything else but good with the irons Mark hubard lonto Griffin again uh I will show you the putting since I have I haven’t done much with the putting tonight but I don’t know what all I’m going to do with the putting if anything in the Final Mix condition model but in
The two years here at Vidant Davis Riley it’s only one year Brandon woo putt very very well here even C look at Cameron Champ that’s why you just I’m just I’ll just say it foreshadowing and he’s going to be on the betting card it’s very rare that you
Get a tournament where Cameron Champ putts field average let alone puts up Denny McCarthy type numbers and he’s put Denny McCarthy type putting numbers here at Vidant he loves these greens of course with his prowess off the tea he’s been a force here so really like Cameron Champ foreshadowing
Patrick Rogers has also been very good here Harry Hall only one time Grio Lashley there’s chz Rey’s played well here average finished right outside the top 30 there’s Adam Long Adam Long’s been very good here it’s another name to to to think about average finish of 17th and he’s been good at
Everything trainer Scott piery um moving to I’m going to skip the distance we kind of know you know who the biggest hitters are let’s go to Greens the players who have gained the most greens here at Vidant F now champ David lipsky Jagger lonto Griffin Emiliano
Grio reie Hub brand woo Adam long again so greens are going to be decent Siz portion of the mixed condition model I think considering the level of success that these players who have played both years have and where they are on the on the greens performance going to skip the
Scoring want to go to par 3es fours and fives because I do want to show you the P palum data that I gathered earlier today so your top part three performers Grio leading the way Novak feno and champ again uh Molinari played well here his one year there’s Brandon woo again
Vincent Norman EVR Nate Lashley talk about him here in a moment Nate Lashley uh Adam long again and Smotherman Jagger so good performances in par 3es par fours fenale uh Carson young now Matty Schmidt’s played them well but look at how poor Matty Schmidt’s been at the par
Fives that’s been his story he’s been good at the par fours Carson young Brandon woo Patrick rers chz uh there’s SMY little bit less in terms of success same with gosh dang it same with Aaron a little bit less in terms of success champ right here at the bottom
Of your screen Sig Grio Smotherman moving to par fives Riley only one year there’s Dylan woo one for two Brandon woo Livy fenals play them well of course champ bramlet hubard piery joerger a little bit further down here Doug gim not too much in terms of
Success but he’s been okay with the par fivs Patrick Rogers Sig long Lashley all right that’s going to do it for the early look file last thing I want to show you all um I have not put this out on social media yet I was planning on doing that
Tomorrow um I want to show you uh the performance of players in the field this week at these comparison courses that I’ve been talking about Coco Beach um at Coralis uh places like that so let me pull that file up very quickly I thought
I had it up of course I don’t what we have here the players that are in the field this week this is their performance at Mexico or at Vidant the in the past two years and then their performance at these comparison courses these other Caribbean long P palum courses Puerto Rico corales
And the one year that the wwt or worldwide Technologies was at lamante this past FedEx fall now this is sorted based on their performance at these three courses so I want you to keep that in mind it is sorted based on their performance at the comparison courses and this is the same
Mathematical formula that I use when I give you the course value on Wednesday nights in my DFS tactics show when I give you my player rankings I I attribute a a player or I give a player a course value based on how well they’ve played that course well I’ve done that
For each of these three courses and then did a little bit of math around it and then sorted so we can see somebody like Nate Lashley the number one player on these Pas palum Caribbean style events and it looks like it’s lining up cuz he’s played very well
At Vidant as well see Puerto Rico three times he’s averaged averaged a sixth place finish little bit less in terms of success at corales but still two for three and then he finished in the top 10 lamon Chad Ramy is a little bit of an outlier here he was terrible at Vidant
His one time I think it was last year it might have been 2022 he was terrible there but he won corales he uh finished top five at Puerto Rico so there’s you know something there maybe he did maybe he was just a bad week but he’s been
Very good at the alternate or uh the comparison courses gim and Vegas and Sam Stevens you see Scott Pierce’s been very good Hall Vincent wayy so these are the players that I would give some extra weight too when you’re starting to make your lineups you
Know I just went to KH Lee I mean honestly you could go down really as far down as you as you kind of want but I would give these players a little bit of an extra consideration CU they’ve played the majority and in Nate lashley’s case all of these comparison
Courses very very well to Vidant and then you can also see like Harry Hall has played well his one time in Mexico Vincent wayy not so much trainer has been okay brandl’s been okay Norman was good his one time so there’s a look at the players who have played
The best and it’s important to note that all of these um comparison course metrics have been gathered in the past 5 years that’s all I go back five years uh Cameron Champ it’s a good question he’s been very very good here at Mexico but he’s not necessarily been the best at these
Um alternate or these uh comparison courses so here’s the bottom of the list now don’t worry about seeing Tony fow here he has not played Tony fale has not played these alter these comparison courses cuz they’re generally alternate field events or you know in the case of the FedEx fall Tony
Feno didn’t need to play he was already in the top 30 so don’t get too alarmed here all of these players here have not played the comparison courses so all of these players here uh are basically in the middle essentially they just haven’t played haven’t played them now Cameron
Champ very very good question there he has been very good at Mexico very good at adant he’s only uh yeah Harry Hall I do like Harry Hall this week absolutely um Cameron Champ has not played Puerto Rico in fact Let me let me freeze the this pain for you very
Quickly Cameron Champ you see has not played Puerto Rico he’s not played corales he was middling at the worldwide Technologies so that’s what’s hurting his score is that he’s just had one tournament and it was It was kind of middling but he’s been very very good here at Mexico so champ is absolutely
Somebody I keyed in on early this week as in like yesterday and Saturday I keyed in on Cameron Champ and then absolutely fired off his number this morning uh let’s see like for example the the player that’s supposedly been the worst at these comparison courses like look at
Ben Taylor here 0 for two at Puerto Rico terrible finishes he did make the cut at the Coralis to a you know a 54th Place finish not great he was awful at the worldwide Technologies but yet the one time he’s played Vidant he was really good again this
Isn’t an exact science this isn’t uh you know a straight rankings per se on pass palum I’m just trying to give you an idea of the players who have played these other Caribbean pass palum um courses well hopefully it gives you an idea you know somebody in the fact of
Like David skins you can probably feel fairly confident he’s been pretty bad at two of the three it was wasn’t very good at Mexico probably somebody who doesn’t like this style of event same with Carl Yuan 0 for two at Puerto Rico really really bad last year at uh at L
Cardal middling at Mexico somebody that probably probably doesn’t like this style of event whereas somebody like Nate Lashley who you probably wouldn’t think about normally at least I wouldn’t think about normally he’s been very very good at these Caribbean events Doug gim has been very very good at all of the
Comparison events he’s been okay at vidon nothing great he did miss the cup one year but he’s been okay somebody like Johnny Vegas who’s coming off an injury yes but has been exceptional at corales been exceptional at Puerto Rico you would have to think he’ll probably take well to to Vidant
Sam Stevens I mentioned him a little bit earlier this this uh evening top 15 a third you would have to think he’s probably going to um acclimate well to Vidant the only thing with Harry Hall and again golfers players have bad weeks bad weeks happen you know he was
He was pretty bad this past fall at the worldwide Technologies that’s the only thing I will I will mention about Harry Hall but I I am in generally in agreement with your sentiment there that Harry Hall kind of stands out a little bit considering he top 10 last year at
Vidant he top 10 Puerto Rico top 15 corales um yeah uh it’s I don’t know if I would I don’t know if I have the stones to put in a win wager on Harry Hall but I you know a top 10 a top 20 makes makes a lot of sense to me
Considering how well he has played two of the three comparison courses and he played extremely well here last year so definitely somebody to think about in a placement uh and somebody that I am keyed in on for DFS absolutely don’t know if I’ll get there on a on a on an
Outright win wager but I don’t think it’s the worst um either I I do like that line of thinking Jeff on Harry hall for sure you know somebody again like Joseph bramlet three for three at Puerto Rico played his one time at corales pretty well he’s been okay uh actually decent
At Mexico so again this isn’t supposed to be a a straight you know absolutely play these guys or wager these guys and absolutely ignore these guys that’s not what this is I’m just trying to give you an idea on the players who have played these Caribbean events well considering
Majority of the time like Puerto Rico and corales they’re alternate field events so there’s bigger tournaments going on Puerto Rico is the same week as the Arnold Palmer corales is the same week as what used to be the match play so not a lot of not a lot of people pay
Attention to these tournaments um so this is hopefully going to give you uh a decent idea or give you a head start on some research on some players that have played well at some comparison courses and some similar style courses and tournaments so I wanted to make sure I I
Left you off with that this evening I’ll I’ll try to put something out on social media around this um but I’ve already put out some research earlier today uh around players that have top fived Vidant there have been 12 players that have top fived Vidant just due to ties
Uh so I have some research out on social media um regarding some similarities and uh some patterns that those top um that those 12 players have followed and the players in the field this week who fit that criteria uh thanks to Jeff for jumping in chat much appreciated
Appreciate the the questions and the interaction always um always enjoy going in depth with with this stuff um granted I’m a masochist so I I love these I love numbers and stuff hopefully it doesn’t go too far over people’s head um but thanks for jumping in chat and thanks to
Everyone else out there who Tunes in watches listens supports the channel liking the videos commenting and subscribing love what I do uh look taking an in-depth look at sports statistics and at least last week helping us all win a little bit of money in the process sometimes I get it right
A lot of times I get it wrong but I’ll own up to it when I do um love what I do trying to help us all win a little money in the process reminder that the DFS tactic show will be at 1 p.m. Wednesday evening just February is a very busy
Month for me especially on Wednesday evenings the DFS tactic show for the Mexico open will be at 10 p.m. not 9900 p.m. on Wednesday evening so thanks again for the support for all the Wagers you’ve made so far this week for the Mexico open for all the Wagers you’re
Thinking about making this week for the Mexico open and until I see you Wednesday night for the DFS tactics show may all your bets be profitable
