Super Bowl Week! | Sports By The Book Ep. 113

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49ers vs Chiefs (Super Bowl)
Miami Florida vs Virginia
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[Applause] All right here we go it’s Sports by the book along with my lovely partner Alex white I’m Matt nett and we’ve got plenty to break down as we approach Super Bowl 58 it is Super Bowl week Alex after a long long season we’re finally here the

Day the week that we never thought would come is here and uh that by week flies by every single year it really does and we were waiting all week last week to get our prop packets we’ve got them now here at the South Point we’ve got about

What 19 Pages 20 20 paging the crew a page so I’m excited to go through them I know we’re going to be adding props each day throughout the week but you and I have a handful that we’re ready to go through already definitely yeah we’re

Going to be taking a look at props uh really both shows that I’m on this week both today and tomorrow here on Sports by the book taking a look at some of our favorite props taking a look at some of our favorite bets and just some of the

Alternate ways that you can bet the Super Bowl because as we’ve been highlighting here over the last couple of weeks you don’t just have to bet spread total money line anymore and a a guy that’s very familiar with all three of those our guest coming up in about 30

Minutes at 3:30 Jay corn the director of the Westgate super book here in Las Vegas joins us he is one of the oldest odds makers as far as being here in Nevada and dealing and booking the Super Bowl uh he’s one of the best longtime friend of mine so we’re really looking

Forward to having Jay corn on 3:30 be sure to like comment and subscribe by the way to South Point studi here at sports by the book follow Alex and I on social media as well as we get into it and uh we got Chris Andrews in studio

Just going to whisper something no Chris Andrew is popping on the air we love having our Legends on air my ticket writers weren’t doing it right you can tease football to basketball perfect we were looking before the show at just some some of the different betting angles and different betting ways yeah

The levels are the don’t correspond to the points so in other words a seven-point football teaser would be I think a Sixpoint basketball teaser so the levels you know so the pay chart is correct that kind of absolutely yeah you can do so yeah you can tease the Super

Bowl I had to go to a veteran ticket writer any go ahead have a good no that is that is good news again we’re talking about just so many different ways to bet the Super Bowl so long story short what Chris is telling us is that you can

Tease the Chiefs up to if you want to do a Sixpoint tease for instance up to plus eight you could tease the Chiefs to a uh a minus four or rather sorry the the Chiefs up to plus eight and the uh the 49ers to plus4 although I’m not a big

Fan of teasing through the zero old school betting knowledge tells you that’s a nog goat but if you want to do either of those you could tease the total as well you can tease it with one of the handful of basketball or both NBA and college games that day so that that

Is new and that’s something that I don’t think a lot of people even consider no absolutely not and that’s funny because we got talking I think we’re on the same page with this it’s a it’s a tight line right it’s a small spread both these teams are really good it’s you’re kind

Of depend um seeing if you’re going off full season with the ners do you trust that ners team that we saw in the regular season for 17 games or are you going off of current form and what we’ve seen in the Chiefs so it’s tough It’s a

Tough wager to make think you and I both like the fact or the idea of teasing the Chiefs up so we were talking about maybe teasing the total down to go over a better number or even tease the total up to go under like 53 and a half which

Sounds great for this game but then Chris jumped in and said or why not tease it with some basketball if you’d like we have that option here at South Point so that’s good for all of our viewers to know and for us to know as

Well yeah we got to double check the NBA schedule see if we can get on a a Clippers tease because they’ve been a wagon as of late uh but yeah here we are Super Bowl week the line really didn’t move over the weekend we’re back to minus two just about everywhere I was

Seeing two and a half at Westgate this morning so we’ll have to talk to Jay about why they’re a half Point different than the market consensus but we’re at about two points here in our 20page prop packet here at the South Point the very very first thing in the packet is the

One that most people look for it is the ners minus two it is a 48 point total and if we were to tease that I think we’re in agreement I like the the 49ers up in the or the rather excuse me the Chiefs up to a plus eight on a six point

Teas in this instance and on the total I would tease it up and go under under 54 I just don’t with the way that these two teams are and with the extra weak I see this one being low-scoring run heavy game script but I I could be wrong

That’s the one thing for me in this game Alex is we’re going to talk a lot of props we have a lot that we like I have a lot of props that I like way more than either side in this one just because of how even it is and as we’ve seen and

We’ll get to the numbers here shortly the super bowls with totals or rather spreads under four points it’s a crapshoot historically yeah absolutely and you’re right with the total here Matt it is a little bit tough my first instinct was definitely looking more at the under and teasing it up my dad which

We’ve had him on here Kenny white professional sports better he liked it teasing it down and going over and his first initial response was it’s the Super Bowl and it’s um conditions right you’re indoors so with both of these offenses we could get a lot of points I

Think you’re safe going either way I think it’ll fall right in between there I think it’s at a a really kind of crucial area as far as the number whether you’re going over or under a lot of unknowns about the game one thing that is known is that this is a

Nightmare matchup if you’re a Las Vegas Raiders F that is for sure it is your oldest historic rival former area mate I guess if you will with with San Francisco versus your current biggest division rival in the Chiefs and uh there’s been some interesting happenings as far as where they’re practicing where

These teams are kind of hanging out for the week I I think that the 49ers are getting the worst end of the deal so they had to practice at unlv’s practice facility the the fertita complex which is one of the best on the west coast the facility itself is amazing they practice

On Turf because the game is going to be on grass they laid down grass on top of the turf and they’re having some you know unforeseen in their eyes instances where players are slipping I guess the NFL I read this this morning grades the hardness of the field on a one to100

Scale they like it to be 70 to 79 I guess the one over about 10 minutes from us at unlv’s complex is grading in the 50s that’s not good so you know you got the advantage there if you’re the Chiefs being able to practice at the Raiders practice facility and the teams actually

Earlier today got their first inside look inside Legion stadium and uh it was interesting to see the Chiefs are in unlv’s locker room they’re not allowed to use the Raiders locker room which I think is I think if it were the Chiefs or anybody else it would be the same I

Just think that that’s really funny that the Raiders say no this is ours we’re not in the game but this is our little area so that’s interesting right because the home team switches off NFC AFC and this year technically the Chiefs or the home team AFC side so I figured that’s

Why they got the Raiders practice facility but makes sense but then they don’t get their uh locker room yeah okay it must have been an Al Davis decision okay they got more locker rooms in that place than any other Stadium I can think of the raiderettes have their own locker

Room it’s like three or four auxiliary locker room so I mean and they’re all better than your average locker room this is not uh not old Foxboro Stadium where we’re talking about this is the the mecca of uh West Coast I don’t know there’s a rivalry buding between

Allegian stadium and Sofi in La as far as the best special event venue uh for for a game like this I’ve been to both watching a football game at both of them I like Allegient I don’t think I’m biased Ryan McCormick he fired back at

Me he said Sofi So and I’ve never been to Sofi but I hear that it’s more of a a district it’s more of like an area to hang out than a legion where there’s not a ton around it but the inside of the facility is second to none absolutely so

Absolutely the team’s finally getting into this Stadium but if you want to get into the stadium for the game uh I was going to say you start saving your pennies your pennies would have had to have been saved up and and put inside a special Vault for a couple years take a

Look these are the ticket prices from this morning I made this this morning cheapest get in price for the Super Bowl right now off the street $88,500 and while it says two tickets that’s for one ticket 8,500 bucks each and uh there’s some resellers I think the most

Expensive one was 48,000 for a ticket and I saw a story too that these uh some of the big time high rollers at some of the casinos that get comp tickets from their hosts turned around and and sold them and they are getting in some massive trouble for that that is a big

Big no-go for most events that you’re going to get free tickets from to turn around and sell them when you got them for nothing but for an event like this I mean my God I don’t even know what to say about these ticket prices I mean I I

Don’t want to say it’s a bad look for Las Vegas it is Las Vegas what do we expect but this is really really steep well and it’s every year it could be Vegas it could be de Mo Iowa it’s the most expensive Super Bowl ever the XYZ

Costs the most of anything ever that’s just the kind of the the direction we’re trending here with the Super Bowl and uh teams just finding ways to take the NFL’s re resources which I’m fine with as a as a Patriots guy I like sticking it to the NFL whatever chance we get but

I wanted to throw some numbers your way and kind of gauge your reaction on just some some Trends some betable angles for this game uh one that was really interesting to me this is the 31st Super Bowl we’re talking about how tight the line is 31st Super Bowl ever with a

Spread of six points or less the straightup winner has covered in 29 of the previous 30 The Only Exception was the Rams beating but not covering against the bang two years ago in the Super Bowl but the really surprising note to me on that one 15 favorites 15

Dogs have won the last uh 30 Super Bowls I thought that was really interesting um 22 Super Bowls by the way have been played with a spread of four or less the straightup winner has covered in all 22 of those instances so you’re better off just laying the points taking a slightly

Better line in this game than laying a money line especially if you like the 49ers right and on the other side you’re better off taking the money line if you like the Chiefs and getting a better price there with plus money well we talked about it too that angle of uh

Potentially if you like the Chiefs money line take a look at Pat Mahomes to win MVP cuz that might be a better number but these MVP odds shifting all over the place it has been interesting to kind of keep an eye on that market as well it

Really is and it’s that’s tough for us betters that like San Francisco to win but think the Chiefs are going to hang in there right with those Trends you can’t even really make that case so got to really dig dig in figure out which team you think is going to win this

One damning number that I saw that implicates the 49ers is that over the last 16 years so this is since 2003 the3 season the team with a better straight up winning percentage throughout the regular season and the playoffs combined one and 15 against the spread in the

Super Bowl in that stretch wow and there’s a lot of different kind of ways that you can look at that to bet but I thought that was really interesting and it’s also interesting to see a team like the 49ers who have not been an underdog all season they have been the favorite

In every single game this year and they were the Super Bowl favorite to enter the playoffs now I’ll tell you that’s only the 10th time that that’s ever been done however as we see on the graphic here coming up it is the fifth time that the 49ers themselves have done it w win

Every single reg or be favored in every single game and enter the playoffs as the Super Bowl favorite I thought that that was really really interesting seven of the previous nine who have done that have made the Super Bowl and five of them have won the Super Bowl so five of

The last uh rather five of the last nine who have been favored in every game and have been the Super Bowl favorite have won the Super Bowl do you think that that’s a trend that continues this year I’m going to put you on the spot I do I

Actually I am leaning more towards the ners the closer we get to game day and last week it was all you know Patrick Mahomes but I tried to take out some of the outside noise and that was Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid on a bye getting

Points and then I really was looking at like I mentioned earlier how good the Niners were all year long how good they were power rated if you look at their depth charts and you power rate each player the ners have the better Personnel they have the better roster

Here and I think with this extra time for them they can put together a good game plan and I also think their offense offensive weapons are way more physical than what the Chiefs have faced lately right and with KD and mcaffrey and Debo Samuel we know how

They play I think that they might have a different challenge for this Chiefs defense that has been absolutely outstanding I think it’s going to be a great game and I I think it’s going to be a really close one yeah the the watchability factor of this game it

Compared to some Super Bowls in the past I think off the charts and I think it’s going to be close we’re both in agree in agreeance on that I mean if you go position by position even if you want to give the Chiefs a slight Advantage let’s

Just say in the tight end area I you know I would say that’s about equal as far as KD versus Kelsey in a big game like this KD’s way more physical though in the Run block that’s it’s so tough right Kelsey’s like a different type of

Tight end and and KD is just so important to the ners in the Run block game and getting his other guys open you don’t really see Kelsey do that a whole lot right no that’s what Noah gray is there for that’s right but that’s that’s why they got another okay so continue I

Would say slight Edge to Kelsey I agree so slight Edge to Kelsey I mean obviously the quarterback battle is going to go to Patrick Mahomes the wide receiver battle Bar None goes to the 49ers they’ve got better across theboard Talent both in the pass catching game

And in the Run blocking game from the white out position and then while the 49ers do have the edge in in the Run game as far as the running backs go I think that with the the grouping of running backs that Kansas City and Ed Reed have put together it is not as

Glaring and not as drastic a difference as one might think I agree with that I really do even though Christian mcaffry is the greatest running back in the league right now and he has proven that over and over he was in the MVP conversation this year deservedly so yeah only player besides quarterbacks

Right but you’re right I think what Pacho has done and then his surrounding cast they’ve they’ve done a very good job on the ground and I said Ed Reed earlier as the coach I’m turning him into a into a coach way too early we’re talking Andy Reid and that does segue

Into a couple of notes about the historical performance of the two head coaches in this game when it comes to certain scenarios Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan who are two of the best coaches in the game both at very different stages in their career but you look at

Andy Reid the day he retires he’s a Bonafide Hall of Famer and Kyle Shanahan very much so trending that way comes from a historic Hall of Fame type football family but they’ve taken very different routes to get to this game Andy Reid has uh been a a coach in this

League for you know 20 plus years so the trends for him really do matter and I I would say more so than than the Kyle Shanahan second half you know trailing narrative when Andy Reid’s teams have had a bye-week it’s considered 13 or more days off which they have had

Leading up to the Super Bowl Andy re coach teams listen to this 31 and seven straight up up but it gets better when Donovan McNab or Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback 26 and three with a byee he’s only lost three games off of a buy with Donovan McNab or Patrick Mahomes

And that that sample size tells you that that’s something that is a bable angle for sure it definitely is and that’s what keeps people leaning towards the Chiefs in this game especially getting points are getting plus money to win outright I mean he is a fantastic coach

And proves it over and over and those all those three losses in the 26 and three stretch were against the Eagles this year and then in the Super Bowls against the Buccaneers and the Patriots all the way back in 2003 and then on the flip side I thought this one was

Interesting Al Shanahan six and0 straight up as a favorite in the playoffs he’s the only NFL head coach right now that’s 5 and0 or greater as a uh straight up in the playoffs so he has been great as a favorite he’s going to

Have to do it as a dog and if they get behind while the 49ers are 2-0 this postseason alone when trailing by seven or more in the second half even if you include those in his straight up record he is 6 and 42 straight up when his

Teams Trail in the second half by a touchdown or more this is a team that you don’t want to get behind from especially going into that second half which you have great numbers I can’t wait to dive into for the second half and with the Chiefs but I mean they they

Shut down the Ravens in that second half last week and they had plenty of opportunities but that defense just turned it up so I don’t this is a spot that the ners cannot get behind in absolutely yeah let’s get into it I I have three we’ll call them four

Different betting angles things that I’m looking at to bet on the game and it’s in you know pretty popular markets and we’ll lead off with the one that you had just mentioned as far as betting the second half and if you’re looking to bet the second half pre flop in this one my

Only advice is to look at unders yes especially with these two defenses and especially especially with the way that the Chiefs have played in the second half this year the Chiefs 18-2 to the second half under this year including the playoffs that is the best

Mark in the the NFL since 2005 and if you go later in the game fourth quarter unders about 19 and one to the under the Chiefs they have locked it down and played a Virginia style the crossport parlays we’re talking we’re talking Virginia basketball later as well I

Thought that was a good comparison right they turn into Virginia de basketball defensively in the second half especially when they have a lead and that’s why I look for them to really get out on kind of a blitz Greek at the beginning I think that the Chiefs sell

Out try to get a lead because when the 49ers get from behind outside of their last two games they have been abysmal historically so that’s really interesting that you bring this up Matt and the Chiefs have these great numbers in the second half and everybody’s talking about how good the defense is

But people are forgetting about this offense and this offense that has struggled all year and I just want to point out this fact that we’re kind of forgetting and last week against Baltimore Kansas City had five drives in the second half and they only crossed

The 50 one time and they got to the 4 48 the Ravens 48 I not that far past Midfield exactly so I mean theyve struggled there too and clearly they had a 10 13o lead at that point it didn’t have to do much but they really couldn’t

And the Ravens defense really shut them down as well so while I love your Trends and what you’re giving out for second half unders just another little side note on why I’m kind of leaning towards the ners here as well those five drives in the second half for the Chiefs you

Know how they ended punt punt punt punt end of game that’s right that was it in the second half for the Chiefs so it’s been a trend both defensively but as you’re saying offensively as well and in at the South Point right now if you come down here

And take a look at the packet second half under is 24 on a 48 point total that’s pretty standard across the board and the fourth quarter total 13 and a half I like both of those under especially with the way that we think that this game script’s going to go I

Agree I think we can definitely stay under that 13 and a half in that fourth quarter take a look at that one other Market that I’m taking going to look at and we’ve mentioned a couple different times is the MVP Market Patrick Mahomes at plus 140 right now behind us here at

The beautiful South Point the Chiefs on the money line at plus 110 so you’re getting an extra 30 cents on the dollar if you think that Patrick Mahomes is the reason that the Chiefs win 11 of the past 14 Super Bowl MVPs have been at 10

To1 odds or less so if you’re like our guy Frank nicaro taking the 200 to one shot on Brock pie that’s pizza money that is your lottery ticket because the state doesn’t trust us with a lottery again 11 of the past 14 Super Bowl MVPs

Have been 10 to one or less and two of those three have been defensive players and the other one was Julian Edelman seven years ago today against the Falcons let me make sure I’m getting this right because we showed a clip earlier on punchlines when you say less

You mean under 10 under under 10 to One 8 to one yeah plus 650 so we do we had um a video on Frank show which showed a lot of long shots that were actually pretty good but we did have Jaylen Herz who was plus 650 so that falls in there

So we must have showed the three out of the 14 that actually hit and were pretty good money the that’s a good point though if you’re going to take a look at Christian mcaffrey may not be as good as you think it is as far as as a sure

Thing uh 57 Super Bowls all time 32 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterback and there hasn’t been a running back to a Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in his final game in 1998 for the Broncos and it was EMT Smith four years prior with the Cowboys in 1994 those are the

Last two running backs so it in the last this Millennium specifically there has not been a running back to in Super Bowl MVP however if there ever was one that existed in the NFL or even on the planet I think Christian mcaffry is up there

See and that’s exactly how I feel on the other side with Travis Kelce but you hear all the time and it makes perfect sense the tight end doesn’t really have an opportunity to do anything without the quarterback right where Christian mcaffrey does he has plenty of opportunities to have the ball to make

Good runs without the quarterback having an influence where Patrick momes has to throw throw Travis Kelce all the throws right definitely yeah so you get a look there Mahomes just down to plus 140 in the packet in front of us but that that line has been moving a little bit I

Think if it stays at plus 150 or goes back there if you can get it elsewhere at plus 150 I love that number what do you think about um Frank was talking about first touchdown score and here Patrick Mahomes is also pretty good price 15 to one to score the first

Touchdown I I do like that that actually brings me to uh a trend that I was going to bring up next and that’s the opening drive of the game and this this could handicap into that one if you think that this trend continues you’ll like that bet uh the Chiefs have scored points

Whether it’s a touchdown or a field goal in their opening drive of their last eight playoff games consecutively crazy uh it’s the longest streak in the NFL since 1991 in the playoffs so I I really like the Chiefs to score in their first drive you think that if you like that number that

They’re going to get down and have Patrick Mahomes punch it in in I think his total for rushing attempts in the game is at 4 and a half so maybe they’re going to get one of them out of the way early huh so that I’ll give that to

Frank I actually have a better one for you that I think you might like and our guy um Jay actually has it at his place I found it in the super book but so I like Travis Kelce and this is for anybody who’s thinking about betting Travis Kelce anytime touchdown because

It’s minus 128 anytime touchdown well if you like that I would recommend putting a little bit money on first half touchdown Which is Plus 210 it doesn’t have to be the first touchdown of the game it just has to be in the first half and that’s what the Chiefs do very well

And very often they get him involved they get him open I mean we saw it last week against the Ravens he scored in the first half of his five touchdowns in the regular season three of them were in the first half and I mean they were big

Games it was the Monday night game against the Eagles I think they lost that one but and then we saw him do it twice here in the playoffs already so if you like Travis Kelce to score a touchdown Which I know a lot of people do I would suggest putting a little bit

On the first half as well and I like that too we think that this game’s going to be high scoring early low scoring late as has been the trend for both of these teams this year if you’re looking to bet this one here at South Point 3183

3184 the rotation number what will the Chiefs do first on their first drive score is even money punt is minus 120 so if you think that they add it to their ninth straight playoff game scoring on their first drive you’re getting even money I like that number a lot I do too

And you can’t ignore what the niners have done the last two games and what the Packers and the lions were able to do against them right so I think that’s a pretty good BET right there certainly and the last one that we’re going to talk about before we get into our

Favorites and something that we’ve been looking forward to talking cross sport Super Bowl props uh is the teaser we started the show with the teaser we’re doing the call back to the teaser Patrick Mahomes has been a teaser machine all by himself now he’s only been an underdog 12 times in his entire

Six-year career which that is incredible to me by itself but in those 12 games as an underdog he has never not covered a six-point teaser line a perfect 12-0 as a dog when you tease Patrick Mahomes up when he’s getting points even when he’s not a a dog even just career in general

He’s hitting teasers sixo teasers at an 88% great incredible even as a favorite that is really good so I I mean as an underdog everybody knows he’s 101 in one against the spread so I definitely believe that about if you tease it he’s uh perfect not a not a sure thing

There are no sure things in this business want to get that out of the way but I thought some of those different angles were just trends that have been too big and too in yourf face to ignore right so and you know there is one more

Point that I do want to bring up since I have been hammering the Niners so much but I mean it is we have to talk about how these teams have gone in opposite directions throughout the playoffs right and Kansas City median points four was 20 and a half medium points against was

17 now first 15 games it was 20 and 20 last five games medium points for 25 so their offense has gotten better and their medium points against is 12 in their last five games very big difference there San Francisco going the other way their median points for is 30 in the

First 15 16 allowing now in the last five games 24 points for allowing 21 so completely going in opposite directions offense and defense so it’s really just a matter of if you think they can turn it around in this two weeks for the Super Bowl in the biggest stage and Andy

Reed’s been great K Shanahan’s been great with time off both of these coaches are great coming off of a buy um the the 49ers didn’t have to play in the wild card they get the week off before the Super Bowl so this is a well-rested

49ers team at least as well rested as as it’ll get at this point in the year 20 games in I think those two games were a little bit um tougher than they wanted right certainly and it’s funny you talked about Kyle Shanahan um as a favorite straight up right six and0 not

Against the spread he didn’t cover in either of his last two games but hey they got it done they found a way to get the win this time of year that’s what it’s all about we like the numbers they just care about the letters w orl right

That’s right uh before we bring in our guest Jay corn I wanted to take a look at some Frost sport props now these are from this the Westgate super book uh cross sport props probably my favorite thing about betting the Super Bowl because books just don’t have the time

The effort the resources to put these out consistently throughout the course of the year but uh Westgate always one of the first if not the first to Market with these and we got a a grip on their packet the other day and sorted through some of these ones so we’ll throw this

First one up here and I love the basketball ones but now with the emergence of Caitlyn Clark as a national Powerhouse not only in women’s basketball but in basketball in general bringing the sport a really Newfound popularity in certain regions of the country and then of course Travis Kelce

Who has become an international Superstar for everything off the field let alone his Hall of Fame playing career on the field so this first one uh Iowa plays Nebraska on Super Bowl Sunday will Caitlyn Clark score more points against Nebraska or will Travis Kelce have more first half receiving yards

Kelce laying two and a half in this instance okay so right now Caitlyn Clark her median points per game is 32 in her last four games she scored 38 35 38 and 45 well over that 32 right Kelsey’s median yards per game is 68 but in his

Last four games he had 116 against the Ravens 75 against the bills 71 and 16 just really turned it up in the playoffs here it’s just first half points so you’re going to go about half of that median or around 75 if you’re looking at

His last three games so I would go with Kelsey in this one but that kind of goes with my game script and I think that they’re going to get Kelsey involved early and often in that first half so for this one against Caitlyn Clark I

Would go Travis Kel minus two and a half yeah we’re both in agree on this one although if there is a player that could you know score 4 five randomly in a in a conference game like this it would be Caitlyn Clark the next one’s also

Caitlyn Clark and it is also the game on Super Bowl Sunday against Nebraska it’s also involving Travis Kelce so Caitlyn Clark will she have more three-pointers made versus Nebraska or will Travis Kelce full game receptions be more and he is laying a half a reception I guess

In this you can have a half a sa not a a sack rather not a half a reception but in this one yeah Kaylin Clark threes or Travis Kelce full game catches okay so I wanted your opinion on this especially cuz you’re really a basketball guy and

You kind of know how Shooters do especially from three points so her median is six in the last five games she had seven three eight seven and six I mean she is right there she had one off game at three which was actually against Northwestern who is the worst defensive

Team in the Big 10 so I don’t know if she was just having easy layups in that one or what but she didn’t have to shoot as many threes okay so she did have eight in the last game against Nebraska they will be playing Nebraska on Sunday

Kell ch’s median reception is six in his last five games he had 11 which was a a lot against the Ravens 5 seven three and five I was leaning more towards Caitlyn Clark and her three-pointers especially because she just saw Nebraska had eight against them but I don’t know if that

Gives the Corn Huskers a little bit of an advantage here rather than her so I wanted your opinion on that I mean she’s one of the very few players on either the men’s or the women’s side in college basketball where it doesn’t really matter how you game plan against her

She’s going to get to her spot she’s going to get her shots and more often than not they’re going to go in now it’s interesting there’s a reason that the guys that make these numbers do so well it’s because they’re right on it and I you know you’re reading off those

Numbers Clark in my head I think okay I’m going to assume six three-pointers because she’s been at at that or greater the last however many games I assume six and then Lo and beh hold Travis Kelce right at about six receptions a game I I it’s tough um and I don’t know much

About the Nebraska women’s team about how they play more on the defensive end is what I would take a look at whether they cover the the three well traditionally or whether they force opponents inside but uh this one is tough out of the four that we have today

For you this is the hardest one for me I think that they get Travis Kelce involved early and I think that he may get a catch or two in the second half so if he’s got four catches by half I would think pretty hard that that you’re you

Know in a pretty good spot I’m going to lean Kelsey but I don’t have a great feel either way on this one me either and it’s it’s really just kind of a gut feeling right if you think Caitlyn Clark’s going to go off then you’re

Going to bet her but if you think Travis Kelce is going to have a great game on on the biggest stage you’re going to lean more toward Travis Kelce you got two more both involving hockey and uh this next one here it’s who will have more Canucks and capitals goals again

This game being played on Super Bowl Sunday or Brandon iuk receptions and the Canucks and the capitals laying one and a half on this one so this is really interesting because the connects are a great over team the capitals are a great under team team Vancouver averages 3.8 goals per

Game and Washington averages just 2.4 goals per game but in the last five games the capitals I would know because I bet a lot of hockey unders not great unders they had total of nine goals eight eight three and seven coming off a long stretch of most of them having time

Off or some of them being at the All-Star game but I would lean more towards them here Brandon auk median reception 4.5 his last five games 333 7even and six somewhere around that 4.5 so you do have to um subtract one and a half here with those goals right yeah

But I would lean towards them I I would say that’s a seven seven goal game so I kind of like the other way they you do the uh the the Niners have been finding ways to use iuk more these last couple of games and even especially around the

Goal line I think that’s really where they found ways to get him the ball so I think that that’s a recent Trend that will continue I think I has a lot of looks in this game whether it’s deep whether it’s in the Red Zone whether it’s over the middle I think that they

Try to Target auk early and uh and Target him often and then this last one is uh canut capitals first period goals want to make sure first period goals in that game or Harrison bucker field goals made yeah I think this one’s kind of kind of obvious right you have to go

With harus bucker um field goals in this cuz it’s first period goals the best you’re going to get is most likely two unless Vancouver just goes off and scores two themselves and the capitals put up one but then you’re only at three so I would definitely definitely lean

Towards Harrison here I can’t find it off hand I’ll have it when we come back from the break but Harrison Butter’s uh line for field goals made in the game uh I I tend to agree with you I think it’s two and a half right that would make

Sense yeah no I like I like that uh you you don’t see many NHL games with three goals scored in the first period I like the defenses in this game to be able to bend but not break on both sides so I think that there will be a lot of field

Goals made so yeah I’m with I’m with buter on that one well okay so that was fun I usually don’t really do the cross sport I’m glad you got me into it do you have any that you want to share before we uh take a break and get our guest

Done the one that I was going to take a look at before you sent it to me and the the leadup to the show was the first one that we showed Clark versus uh Kelsey I think those ones are great and Caitlyn Clark it’s disrespectful to call her

Flavor of the month or like the hot new thing that people are noticing because she has been doing this for so long and is the best player in women’s basketball at the college level maybe on the planet at any level um but I knew that there

Was going to be a lot of props with Caitlyn Clark when I saw that they were playing on that day so the Celtics are playing um I did see one on Jason Tatum you didn’t take a look at that yet not yet not yet NBA’s tough right do we even

Know is everybody playing exact that’s the reason why I’m laying off the NBA ones but uh yeah it’s it’s very interesting to take a look at these cross sport props because if there’s a sport like women’s college basketball or the NBA that you think you have a better

Edge on you’ve had better success betting that than the NBA this year or the NFL I should say you have you you have an advantage because they’re usually laying or catching points one way or another and sometimes there’s morgage to be taken advantage of for sure so we’ll step aside here two-minute

Break when we come back Jay cornate director of the Westgate super book here in Vegas longtime friend of both mine and Chris Andrew’s right behind us joins us to talk Super Bowl props from behind the Counter once you’ve satisfied your hunger get ready for more of the hottest casino games in Vegas our 24-hour 30 table non-smoking Poker Room proudly hosts all the most popular poker games with a variety of betting limits visit the poker room for a schedule of daily tournaments whether you’re going to hold

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Door is the race book over 150 seats each with its own TV screen There are 16 interactive player terminals so you can bet right from your seat Once you’ve satisfied your hunger get ready for more of the hottest casino games in Vegas our 24-hour 30 table nonsmoking Poker Room proudly hosts all the most popular poker games with a variety of betting limits visit the poker room for a schedule of daily tournaments whether you’re going to hold

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Them or fold them the best place for poker is at South Point Casino you’ll notice that our crafts tables are usually the loudest in the casino if you’ve never played Join one of our free craft CS lessons to find out what makes this game so exciting give it a Roll welcome back to sports by the book I’m Matt never along with Alex white and we’re going to have Jake corn on the phone with us momentarily but as we get ready to bring our guest in wanted to continue our talk on these Super Bowl props and some of the ones from the

Westgate super book especially because there were some really interesting ones and a different number on one that I saw pretty much than anywhere else Market wide and that’s on a very popular Super Bowl prop that’s not out at a lot of places yet but the jersey number of the

Player to score the first touchdown over under 19 and a half and we were looking at some of the numbers it is interesting because I’ve seen 21 and a half at some other places and what that does is it gives you two other players on the

Overside on the 19 you got caderas Tony who’s 19 and uh who was the other one that we saw um well Debo Samuel is Debo as well Debo gets him in as well so that literally is it 19 and a half 19 and a half so that’s why the the super book

One is 19 um but I seen it at 21 elsewhere okay I think it’s interesting to kind of take a look at where different places have their different markets set up uh in this number it’s minus 110 either way and there are equal just about equal amount of scores on

Each end obviously you’ve got your KD your Kelsey your maccaffrey that go over that but both of these teams including both quarterbacks obviously are going to be below that and so it’s a really interesting market and I think that it’s one especially in this matchup where he

Minus 110 on both sides definitely works and is where the line should be yeah I agree and if you kind of have a player or two in mind that you think is going to score first and you can uh group them together here by their jersey number I

Say why not take a little shot on that all right we got him we got the man we got the myth we got the legend joining us now via video call is the director of the Westgate super book here in Nevada and in other states and property

Nationwide Jay corn thank you so much for joining us here on Sports by the book how you doing how you hey guys Alex good to see you as well haven’t seen you in a long time uh finally got on might have been operator error on my end it’s

Always when when in doubt you can blame us that is totally all right Jay you’re not hurting our feelings you’re one of the last guys uh that that has to worry about that but you’ve been booking the Super Bowl for a long long time now you’ve been at Westgate back when it was

The Hilton you took over the book there in 2004 even in the past 20 years we’ll say in a microcosm obviously the Super Bowl betting landscape has changed drastically since William The Refrigerator Perry was the first prop bet offer whether or not he was going to

Score 1985 but we’ll say in the last 20 years Jay what has been the biggest difference for you at Westgate in terms of betting the super book Super Bowl not the Super Book well it it’s um you know back in the day when we first started the propositions they were considered sucker

Bets by many a lot of people were uh told to steer away from them and over time uh recreational players had success with them and uh they had some pretty big hits o you over the last 20 years uh at our expense which is fine because we won

Our share as as well but you know it’s a perfect storm for us these days as you know the recreational play is so strong during the Super Bowl but it also gives the opport opportunity for Sharp players to bet the other side so we’re kind of

Getting the Best of Both Worlds the as you know Matt and Alex that most of the the lines that we have and we set during the course of the year is really geared towards the sharper players but the Super Bowl is one of those unique events where the play is dominated by

Recreational players and so even though we get a lot of recreational play on these propositions the sharp players are able to pick and choose uh um props that might get out of line where they find some perceived value in them and then it helps out the bookmakers as they balance

Out all this recreational play that we see and that’s been uh going on for a while um I’m not going to say just the last 20 years uh maybe the last 25 or so uh but to this day that’s what we see uh during Super Bowl week Jay great to see

You as well so we finally did it we have a Super Bowl here in Las Vegas how has that impacted you guys over there so far well it’s it’s been out outside the bookmaking circle uh we’ve been very very busy Alex with so many new venues so many different offerings because we

Expect and we are uh going to have more VIPs here we’re going to have more celebrities in town the venues that we see all around town um you know not just by our other competitors but uh from the NFL and other um you Industries as well you have other uh companies that are

Coming that have nothing to do with sports coming to Las Vegas and they also have VIP parties different venues different experiences so we’ve been uh very very busy outside the sports book to get ready for all the expected crowds that we’re we’re going to see in the

Next few days and Jay as far as the number on the game itself right behind us at the South Point uh we are at two points uh over at your joint at the Westgate you are at two and a half is that a an action driven line movement that extra half a

Point absolutely Matt it’s uh all all of our big play has has been on San Francisco so far you we opened two and a half uh the market kind of drove it down to one and from that point on it all the big play has been on San Francisco at

Least with us uh the recreational play has been on Kansas City but we haven’t really seen the true recreational play yet we expect that to start showing up on Friday Friday night and and I would say expect most of the tickets most of the bets to be on Kansas City so uh

We’re sitting at a good spot here we’re not really flirting with football numbers so to speak we’re not at three three and a half four six or six and a half or seven anything like that we’re at two and a half or two around town so we’re very comfortable where we sit at

This stage and one of the big things that Chris Andrews told us last week I think it was is that uh with a lot of the handle going towards props he thinks that that’s because it’s because the game isn’t really around a key number and now as we get closer to three that

Could change but he think that that is the reason why we’re getting so much action on props year in year out and kind of increasing it as we go up over at the Westgate what have been some of the most popular props that players have been trying to take advantage of trying

To take advantage of well the I I I think that um right now the early going the sharps really look at the propositions for opportunities you know whether it’s something that they’re trying to Middle come you know operator to operator where there it’s you know they might have 263 passing yards

Another operator might have 273 passing yards in just a you know a day or so you know they’re both at about 268 um I would I would suspect that uh um most of the action that we’ve seen so far is B based off opportunity uh and opinion um from the

Sharps the recreational play like 80% of their 80% of the action Matt and Alex says as you guys know probably not going to come in until the last two days and that’s when we really get a lot of public action uh but right now it’s been Sharps uh mostly and they’re looking at

Opportunity they’re looking at middles uh they’re looking at their opinions and so uh after a couple of days most of the operators are uh at I I would say similar numbers um but uh it’s it’s still the storm is coming and we we’re getting prepared for that

But to answer your question Matt I they love pie they’re betting py over a lot P’s rushing yards um I think the shortest touchdown under one and a half has uh been getting some action from the sharps as well um but off the top of my

Head those are the two big ones that stand out right now as uh we’ll get more of those uh you know lopsided uh uh betting patterns um over the next few days but I’m hoping that the once we get to the recreational play you know they’ll even out some of this sharp

Action that we’ve seen the first couple of days yeah if you’re an under player wait because the public loves betting the overs so yeah if you’re looking at unders definitely wait no matter where you’re going to be betting that doesn’t give um under betters much time though

If the recreation will come in at the the last minute right that’s I was going to ask you that is it really just day of you have sharp bers coming in and taking unders as well well they’re they’re popping up Alex all the time you know you never

Know when we first open up the props we we get a line uh and they just take we we limit them to two pops per window trip and so they just kind of rotate around for the first five or six hours uh but you know it’s a good line of

About 30 uh you know for the most part very respected better so we we like to see what they’re they’re playing and what they’re at um the recreational play you know it it’s trickling in right now it’s not like we’re not getting any recreational play I’m just saying that

80% of the recreational play will take place over the last couple of days and that will start showing up Friday night now one area of your book that is certainly for the sharps not for most recreational players are your contests you’re well known for the super contest

But you’re doing a Super Bowl contest what’s that looking like on your end yeah we call that the big game prop contest Matt and it’s we’ve been running that over the last few years and it’s becoming more and more popular each and every Years A lot of people are having

Fun with it and it’s a $100 to get in you can enter up to five times per person and it’s a contest that involves Super Bowl props what we do is we take the 30 props that we think are the most likable uh simple to understand propositions WE Post those 30 props

Contestants select uh aside for each one of those 30 propositions and whoever comes up with the most winners you know wins the top prize so uh it’s going to be interesting to see how many entries that uh we’ll get this year but I’m expecting a lot more than we have seen

In the year’s past mainly because the crowds that we’re going to see this weekend will probably be like no other Super Bowl we’ve seen before and I mentioned it in that question but we definitely want to give you a chance to highlight a lot of your other contests

Throughout the year including the super contest uh Chris Andrew’s cousin artman Terrace uh former Las Vegas Hilton Runner of of the book there and uh someone that that you’ve cross path with as well was the one that started the Westgate super contest and so yeah tell

Us a little bit about your rest of your contest throughout the year whether it be football baseball basketball yeah we have well it’s highlighted by the super contest which has been going on since 1988 it’s it’s a very standard uh format where uh contestants pick five games against the spread each week

During the 18we regular season it’s a $1,000 entry fee and the best thing about the you know the super contest these days are all the in contests uh or in season contests that we have within the overall uh contest meaning that we have a we have a 63e contest we have um

Three six-week contests and two nwe contests all wrapped up uh under that one uh entry fee of ,000 so you can get hot for three weeks and and really cash in we have some really good End season cash prizes that go along with the the super contest we have the super contest

Gold which is the same format five games against the spread each week for the 18we season but it’s a winner take all it’s a $5,000 entry fee uh the winner this year won I believe 460,000 is for the big boys but uh and when we look it

Over we have a really good mix mix of uh sharp players and recreational players that want to see how they size up against some of the best in the business um during the other uh parts of the Season we have um our NFL wins contest WE Post over under win uh number for

Each uh uh NFL team again you pick over under for each of the teams whoever picks the most wins wins the top prize we also do that for baseball uh we have over under regular season wins by each baseball team and that will be popping

Up here uh shortly and we also have a a Madness contest where we have lines for the first two days of the contest it’s really difficult to do something during once the con or once the tournament starts but we do uh have a contest for

The first two days of the contest um and that is our Madness contest that will be uh popping up once the teams are selected on selection Sunday so uh that’s just a little taste of it um but we will we are talking about some others that

We’re probably going to add to the menu but I’m going to have to save that for later and Jay I’ve made a couple donations namely the last year’s uh baseball and football win total contest I didn’t even come close to the top uh but I’m fortunate enough to be sharing

The desk here with a multi-time contest winner in Alex white so you’ll certainly be seeing her for some of those coming up I tried Jay’s this year it was it was pretty tough but I’ll be back next football season as well and I might have

To check out this big game props and the madness contest as well so you’ll see me sometime this week Jay but I am curious Matt and I were um we were crunching numbers we were looking at your cross sport props can you tell us about the

History there how you guys came up with that and what the process looks like to make those make yeah we we came uh I believe it was the first one and it wasn’t even me it was my boss at the time Kirk Brook came up with uh the

First crossover uh prop that I can remember and that was back in 1990 when the Denver Bron goes uh were playing the 49ers uh in that route of 55 to10 I I’m reminded of that score by my uh friends from San Francisco almost every year uh

But uh that game um our uh my boss my director of the Imperial Palace at that time said why don’t we put up something that has Michael Jordan in it and maybe who’s going to score more points on Super Sunday Michael Jordan or the 49ers

And and we put that up and we just couldn’t believe how much interest that you know created not only for the marketing side of things but for business purposes as well and that really got the ball rolling and we started putting all these different types of uh crossover Sports wither um

And we really try to shape it around the the sports that and the games that are being T taken place during that Super Bowl weekend so we have props that mix into the Super Bowl uh that could be hockey Gam gam soccer games golf golf rounds um you know events that are

Taking place clear across the world um and of course all the basketball games that we have during the course of the uh the weekend so uh we try to mix it up because we know um a lot of these fans don’t live on football alone and uh it

Really kind of tests their their skills on uh some of the other sports that are taking place during the uh Super Bowl weekend but they have been uh I gotta say that they’re not as popular as some of the just basic football props like player to score the first touchdown or

You know whether it be overtime those football props seem to get the most action the crossover ones seems to get most their of their attention from the sharp guys so go figure but uh it’s fun for us to to match those up and um you know test our skills against some of the

Best in the business Jay we’ll let you get back to work thanks so much for joining us here in the leadup to the Super Bowl we’ll let you I know it’s a full-time job keeping John Murray and Company in line so we’ll let you get back to it thanks so much for taking

Some time and joining us here on Sports by the book it’s my pleasure guys enjoy the week thank you Jay Jay corn director of the Westgate Superbook here in Nevada you can find him on Twitter J corn yeah really interested to see his thoughts on the the crossport props because they’re

The first ones to get him out and I’ve seen the process behind what it takes to put those out and what it takes to set good lines on all of those and it is a weekl long process if not long oh I can only imagine he just said they’re going

Up against the best in the sharp so they want to make sure they have the best numbers there you you knew that you said Michael Jordan earlier when you uh led into us doing this crossport prop so you must have known that story I used to

Work for Jay very Co long that’s a good story I like it yeah a longtime family friend I’ve known him since the Imperial Palace days okay my dad used to do a talk show at the Imperial Palace and now him and Jay are the the best of friends

Great guy great place over there at the Westgate super book if you have not gotten a chance to go check it out it is one of the best sports books that you will ever find we’re honored to come from another great sports book here at the South Point South Point Studios like

Comment subscribe give us a follow I’m Matt never she’s Alex white Alex before we get out for today we would not be doing our due diligence if we didn’t give out some college basketball plays I have to and there really are only two games of Interest today there’s some

Games in the swack couple of Big Sky games but really the only two games featuring power five power six teams uh are one match up in the ACC and then one match up in the big 12 we’ll start number 871 872 on the rotation number it’s Miami traveling to Virginia and the

Cavaliers opened at minus 4 and a half they’re now getting six points but as is always the case on the Virginia games you got to take a look at the total it’s at 132 and a half for this one so you’re going to have to help me out here a

Little bit I told you i’ had a lean you gave me a stronger Trend to maybe push this into a play but it’s definitely Miami Florida Virginia under that 132 I mean Miami’s even been playing more like an under Team Six and five and no that’s against the spread four and

One to the under in their last five so I like that one much better than their straight up conference play but and then of course Virginia we know how they play seven and four to the under at home this year so you have a trend to support this

As well yeah not only is Virginia the hottest home team in the country they’re the longest active home winning streak in the country at 22 games in the last 10 match up between these two teams specifically Miami and Virginia the under is seven and three okay Miami is

Averaging just over 57 points a game in those matchups and they’ve only broken 70 points once that’s yeah I like it like it even more now I think that is strong enough to be a play you’re right Virginia’s been really good especially at home and even on I mean down this stretch they

Won six in a row now Virginia second in the country in defense opponent shooting under 40% against the Cavaliers so I I not an official play on my book yet but this 132 number is a little bit elevated even for Virginia standards absolutely I definitely lean to the under that one

Starts here in just a couple minutes it starts on ESPN so as soon as we get off the air here in just a moment go over and tune in that one on the worldwide leader and lastly the game of the night around college basketball Kansas at Kansas state number four Kansas coming

Off of a win against Houston dominant win except for the last couple minutes of the second half where Houston started to kind of find their way back in before Bill self got the the the crew in order Kansas laying four and this game really interesting because this is one of the

Fiercest rivalries that people don’t think about in all of college sports let alone basketball so I really don’t have a play in this one I would definitely be on Kansas I don’t really trust this Kate team but with them just coming off that big win over Houston I fear we might

Have a little bit of a let down spot here I’m going to turn this over to you yeah I’m pulling up a number right now so the big thing in this one is that Kansas State comes in as Losers of their last four they lost to three ranked

Teams the Big 12 might get nine teams in the in the NCA tournament so losing the three ranked Conference teams really not too bad but the number that that I saw Kansas since February of 2021 when facing off against teams on a three game or more losing streak 7-0 ATS and

Straight up so I I I tend to lean with you on that one to go Kansas follow that Trend Kansas the number three team in the country on on kenpom and for for my money just about as good a bet to win the national title as anybody yeah

They’re looking very good right now well coached they’re deep great defense they travel well but tonight the the real test is they travel to Manhattan and take on the uh the Wildcats of Kansas State that one starting at 6:00 right after the Miami Virginia game ends

That’ll do it for us jam-pack show as we take a look at props we’re talking props baby it’s the Super Bowl week I’ll be back tomorrow on the desk with Alex we got more props we’re going to talk a full night not only in college basketball but in the NBA we’ll have

Some NHL trends for you as well want to thank Our Guest Jay corn the director of race and sports over at the Westgate Superbook at here in Vegas he also does a lot of their stuff in other states he is a very very busy guy so we appreciate

Taking couple minutes be sure to like comment and subscribe here at South Point Studios the drive for 2,000 subscribers is on follow my partner Alex white and me Matt nett on social media that’ll do it for sports by the book catch punch lines with Frank nicaro

Tomorrow at noon on the west coast and then we’ll be back right here in the same Studio at 3:00 thanks for tuning in catch you [Applause] Tomorrow