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[Applause] It’s Sports by the book we’re here at the South Point Studio and we’ve got a jam-packed show we’re going to take a look at all the AFC NFC Championship Recaps you can handle a look two weeks ahead to the big game luff and aaro joins us at 3:30 to talk football hockey
And more and right off the bat myself Matt nevert my co-host Alex white we’ve got some guests the uh highly esteemed part of the crew that makes the lines here at the south point we’re joined right off the top of the show by the men the myth the Legends wow Vinnie Mulo and
Jimmy viaro we’re getting ready to talk everything that happened last weekend everything that’s going to happen over the next two weeks and before we get into the specifics because we got plenty to go over I wanted to get your guys thoughts from a general perspective here we are the day after the conference
Championship games you’ve got a full menu pages pin pages long of bets that you can already make on the Super Bowl coming up in a couple of weeks just in general would love to get you guys thoughts on how the landscape of betting the Super Bowl has changed and how quickly things
Are available nowadays well Jimmy you’ll uh Jimmy first of all we we get called a lot of things esteemed is uh is is definitely on the short list but so thank you Matt for that but Jimmy you’ll remember um that there was a time oh my goodness even if you go back
To the uh uh to the mid 80s where maybe there were a dozen ways to bet the Super Bowl of course we remember when that you could BET The Game and and a total and then at halftime uh you know and then maybe somebody started sprinkling in
Money lines but um you know that that Bears Super Bowl Super Bowl 20 uh with uh William The Refrigerator Perry scoring that touchdown really had a light bulb go off and started to uh uh really get the attention of not only the betting public but also operators as well Matt and uh
And Alex so um it it just continues to grow every year and now the Super Bowl um just with the in-game alone you you look at it and you say my good because it was it really so long ago where we only had a few ways to bet the game and
Uh the endgame at that time consisted of halftime so Jimmy can uh can speak to a lot of those points as well he was right in the middle of it too yeah tell Taylor to sit down it doesn’t get up you’re not a you’re not a Swifty yeah I just want about four
Albums probably ran you about as much as these uh tickets were about show I got confused I thought it was Little Richard’s wrong Taylor one thing that that hasn’t changed you can’t stand it can you you’re laughing at I can I could I’m I’m
A mixed bag I’m not uh I’m not a hater I’m not a a lover in her words either but one thing that hasn’t necessarily changed is the the scale of some of these Super Bowl bets because people have always unloaded for way more in the
Super Bowl and has not changed you got a couple of big tickets right here for us well it’s an event also and first of all the thing that Vinnie went on to is that he’s right on the money because obviously there are different things different times whatever the William
Perry thing was like the best million dollars we ever paid for advertisement because what had happened when it happened actually all of a sudden every a ticket writer from whatever from across the country start calling people like me and Vinnie say hey what we hear what you hear what happened with William
Perry and then what it did uh with not being the one you know uh going to the end zone we thought but then the one we needed not to go into the end zone ended up to be our biggest winner that was William Perry from that particular point
Every year what had happened every APA reader would call say hey Vinny hey Jimmy anything going on anything going on so we would have their attention all of a sudden so it went crazy after that particular time and we’re going to have a monster monster Monster two weeks from
Yesterday and uh here’s three tickets now that we probably wouldn’t have gotten in the years past we had have waited probably to see what happen in a few days yeah take a look at these my God same thing all right the first I’m looking at just a lowly lay 105 which
You can now which is unbelievable we have laying 105 at our Sports books here in Nevada at the South Point he laid a measly $21,000 minus 05 to win 20,000 actually that’s a few dollars cheaper if you let delay 10 A110 that was the first one here’s the second one the guy bet
$57,000 on the money line minus $14 14 57,000 to win 50,000 all right that’s another we’re up to a couple tickets already and here’s a little mama and Popp it would straighten your behind up if you’re watching the game 49ers minus 105 $105,000 to win $100,000 that’s all now
Not saying that you know we never got those type of bets previously but what’s happening now with these type of tickets that are coming in earlier and earlier which shows you that the weekend is going to be an absolute monster so what we have given is what the public wants
We put this in our little Tweeter me and and Vinnie the response we get is incredible because people keep saying wow wow Jimmy send me some big tickets we want to see this what they do they seem to like uh get their friends on the phone or whatever AG you see this the
See this Michael gu the owner of the South Point loves it because let’s just call it like it is win loser draw we have people all over the world who’s calling and we’re saying welcome to the South Point see what’s going on so it cost zero but you know he had the nerve
To do it for the 105 so with me Vinnie and Chris uh look for I would consider a lot more of these the beginning of next week so we’ll see what happens but this is incredible early on couple things to Jimmy’s really concise and accurate assessment there is that you’ve got
Almost $200,000 worth of tickets there that’s not one 1% of what we’re going to handle on this game you know so think about that for a couple of weeks um the other part is the 105 to win 100 it’s $5,000 off now obviously he’s got to win
The ticket don’t get me wrong but instead of putting up 110 to uh to win 100 put up 105 to 100 105 has become a standard here at the south point during the Super Bowl for straight bets on the on the side on the game itself uh and
Also during the the in a a tournament from the second weekend in you know from sweet 16 in so um people know that and that accelerates and adds to wagering because people know that and they’re educated enough now too compared to years past uh where they they are
Willing to shop for that extra in this case 5 cents and but as you’re betting during the course of this Super Bowl uh you’re going to to save save money uh and and this individual I can tell you right now he’s not done betting this is
Not those are he he’s he’s still going to he’s going to come back’s getting in ahead of a number move he’s going to be back yeah I did see him uh he was at the counter and I just said you know you’re invited to come in and talk about it he
Said no thanks Jimmy he said maybe one of these days we will but uh you know you got to got to respect that and before we forget I just want to because I get questioned about this a lot and I’m sure Vinnie does also it’s like
Jimmy is that the biggest event you have answer is always the same the THS to Sunday with the NCAA might do it but that’s four days this is just one event one day but the uh the March Manda to is incredible because it’s like uh non-stop people
Coming in for the four days so uh this little great little Sport Book we have here which was built can you believe it’s going on seven years ago V chin with this studio here this studio yeah and it keeps getting bigger and bigger and bigger and so and we enjoy it so
Anytime anybody out there wants anything answered or whatever you know stop by and see me and and uh and we’ll go from there but uh I feel really good about this up because like a lot of us here uh you at 78 years old I made just about
All of them now I lost the first one you know I was in Youngstown Ohio and I bet against Lombardi and had to look around for gas money after that see one thing you two wouldn’t know because yeah okay well I was like how the hell did I do
That I got no gas and no money but I figured something out you always do Jimmy that’s what we love about you guys I do have one question for you guys so it did cross my mind I thought that this might swing and the Chiefs may be a
Favorite at some point maybe one point favorite I know it’s pretty much pick them now but that right there shows me that there’s going to be money here on the ners as well do you think we won’t see that complete you know that’s a that’s a great question Alex because if
You remember you know going into the weekend here at sou Point um you know Chris and and Chris and I were in on Friday we were talking about the matchups and the potential matchups and the and uh the look ahead on that the Chiefs ners was three Niners three if
You remember now you locked it in at that if you had bet that particular look ahead proposition but I also said listen here’s what you have to remember let’s see how the games play out on Sunday which obviously yesterday you know we we did see that um Chris did open the
Number last night at two so some CH Chiefs money at two uh at the one and a half now back to one and a half by the way that uh once the these bets came in one back to one and a half that amount will definitely do it yeah early it’s
Still early yeah that’s a good point mant you know it but to to your point Alex would it shock me if if if there was a swing the other way I don’t think so because what you’ve got here are two very public teams uh not only with their
Fan bases in their respective cities and states uh but also nationally these are these are very uh much public teams as we refer to them as and everybody who gets involved with it and as Jimmy was saying how and Matt you were asking about how big the Super Bowl is single
Most wagered event of the year uh that we see every year now for sustained action obviously the NCAA tournament for two and A2 weeks will surpass it but for a single event a single game there’s nothing like the Super Bowl I mean last year um over $153 million bet in Nevada
Alone and now obviously with now the uh the the uh gaming and and sports wagering available in well over 40 States uh that’s certainly going to you know uh be on a national scale and what we also might see is okay obviously this is a lot of money no matter how you come
It up here but come game time we might need this guy to win the money that’s how crazy it is and every time people say hey Jimmy who do you need and I try to explain it in a nice way that like when you have an event like this you
Could be 200,000 High a half hour before games but when they kick off you need the other side because what you get let’s call them like the people who understand theaet who bet a lot of money they’re waiting till they see what they can get if they’re not betting it that
Means that they know that they can get this sooner or later they’re waiting for something a little better so there’s nothing wrong with it and with the casinos and the sports book there’s a lot of moving around so if you have someone obviously moving money for you
So you have to wait till the end if you want something like this so it’s going to be fun and I I I can’t wait I enjoy it quite a bit and I’m sorry man we we started putting up prop bets already you know because it’s such a a a lengthy
Process um you know first first second third fourth quarter uh to to start right and some of the standard uh you know team total props and things like that so every day gearing up towards next weekend we want to grab next weekend as a as a big weekend too with
With folks visiting town that may not be here for the following weekend and of course the following weekend will be with uh you know probably over 400,000 of our closest friends uh uh you know especially with the game here um but uh Super Bowl for next year is up already
The future book is up uh already here at the sou point you guys never sleep do you no it’s it’s what what four well we do this I’m I’m sleeping right now you probably can’t even tell I just hope I don’t snore in the middle of the in the
Middle of the show definely highlight some of those because there’s a a historical Trend that we’re going to take a look at as far as look ahead preseason Super Bowl favorites last thing for you guys before we let you guys get back behind the counter get
Back to pretending to work here um was there a game yesterday we’ll end by looking back yesterday with with the Chiefs and the Ravens Lions 49ers was there a game that you guys did better on between the two of those I would say last night last night’s game fell
Actually perfect in in terms you know for the house uh obviously you know a lot of people uh did have the uh the Lions to cover uh but they also had them on on the uh on the money line as well so when you look at the carryover
Particularly from the morning game uh I would say Jimmy that uh the Niners game last night the result of it yeah so it was a good it was a good result and again these Futures you’re going to see uh not so such one of the questions you
You’ll you’ll come across or will get asked lot hey how could the so and so be only this you know they’re short because again we’re going to see how free agency goes how the draft goes and not so much who they draft as much as who maybe
Makes some moves around the draft in terms of uh cluster uh cluster draft picks or cluster or trades that invol trades up for Caleb Williams at one unexpect there you go some things like that had to cap that yet so but uh in case you’re uh looking at uh somebody
Now’s the now you can get started for next year’s Super Bowl and one of these things quickly that a lot of people ask and I’ll just say it out front we’re up to half the money that we take are on Prop pets you got remember from Propet
Was Zero now it’s half the stuff that we take for that that’s that’s an incredible number that is and so you just go on and you just keep writing tickets for as fast as you can because it is something and and the other thing the NFL there are a lot of props are
Like we can’t pay until the NFL sends out their official sheet cuz what you some you know we may see is like 112 yards and then it comes across no he we counted the last two knots 115 116 so everybody out there kids every every now
And then if you come to cash your tickets and we’re not ready yet it’s not us the NFL must say you an official cheat and vinance will help got to go by the official box score and remember this for this is the first one to to make it maybe definitely
Clarify when somebody takes a knee especially a quarterback takes a knee that comes off as yardage please bear that in mind he had 100 yards no he really didn’t lost he did but he did take a knee three times in a row so lost yard well Vinnie Mayo Jimmy varc thanks
So much for stopping by we’ll let you guys get back to work but always love getting your don’t say that word around me we know where we know where they’re heading well thanks again guys I really appreciate you guys start there there they go Vinnie and Jimmy come down and
See him at the southp point and uh yeah come get your prop bets in that half number of the the props in terms of the total AC I knew it was a lot I don’t necessarily know if I knew that it was it was half of course
Yeah with some of the tickets I know honestly I didn’t know that either no I mean I used to work at a sports book and we took a lot of bets or a lot of props I should say during the Super Bowl and leading up to the Super Bowl and Vinnie
Vinnie is right though that the the money that is put up here at the beginning of this two- week now you know parade to the Super Bowl it it only builds and that Thursday through Saturday before it and even right up until KCK off that’s when they take a
Lot a lot of the handle it is crazy Matt but I mean thinking about it even for myself the last few weeks I feel like I have been betting more on props than even the games because they are really hard especially this late in the season
The line is so tight that they do a great job so beating them behind there it’s almost like you feel like you have a little bit more of an edge with some of these props if you do your research and feel good about one of them so I
Could I could kind of see why well let’s let’s dive into recapping the two Conference Championship games how did you make out first and foremost what Bets did you have if you want to share them and how how did you make out on the weekend overall I I only had three how
Many did how many did you make so here’s the thing I think I’ve told most people in most shows so I had an Exacta I had the ners beating the Ravens 18 to one I made it the day after Halloween um so that one kind of hurt but instead of
Doubling down because I like the Ravens we talked about it last week um I actually made a bet on the Chiefs to cover myself there um I also had a really good teaser with the Chiefs up and I brought the Niners down which you could have done either way like could
Teased the Lions up as well but so those two but I did Lay the points with the ners you were on the other side you got me on that one but so overall I wasn’t alone yeah there was a lot of folks that laid the seven seven and a half even it
Got up to and uh it was on on Twitter X whatever you want to call it when when that game was getting down to the to the nitty-gritty and everyone was so sure on either side they’re like we all know how this one ends and you didn’t know what
They were talking about necessarily because they were coming from different sides of the uh of the aisle but had the same thing but yeah real quick I want to get into this uh this Chiefs Ravens match up 17 to 10 final uh the game closed Ravens length four and a half the
Total at 44 my only bets for the weekend I had under in this one which was easy money no no sweat there I had the Lions plus the seven which was uh not easy the exact opposite they had to wiggle their way in in the back door there and then I
Took that Gus Edwards over 39 and a half rushing yards prop and you know Gus Edwards aside he finished with 20 yards so I lost that one as my only loser out of the three uh just a surprising game plan overall from the Ravens the the NFL’s number one offense in terms of
Rushing percentage they ran the ball over half the time in the regular season the highest rate of anybody in the league they had exactly 11 running plays six designed runs to running backs and it it was aided because they got down early they gave up that touchdown early
But they went so drastically far away from their game plan and we’ll hear from luffin Naro here coming up in about 10 minutes um with with his thoughts because he was all over the Ravens in a bad way he was crushing them on social media and I just thought that the the
Departure from their game plan from so early on in the game doomed them from early on in that first quarter I completely agree I mean they weren’t down that much that they needed to panic like that of course there was two big plays that really changed the whole
Momentum of the game I think if flowers wouldn’t have fumbled that ball in the end zone that might have switched things around there but you got to give it up for their defense I mean they gave them chance after chance to come back here but I’m with you I wish they would have
Um not abandoned the run and stuck to that a little bit more but it did feel like a little bit of a panic didn’t it absolutely and especially against the chief’s defense that gave up 182 rush yards against Houston the week prior right I mean this was a team that was
Getting gash on the ground and the number one running team in the NFL couldn’t get anything going against him I learned a lot about the Chiefs defense though they did very good as well and uh the Ravens really struggled in that first quarter first half and then the
Second half you saw them start to start to move the ball better but as you mentioned not on the ground to not what we were used to seeing from them so ham what do you know it’s the fourth AFC title in the last five years for Kansas
City uh Patrick Mahomes with his 14th playoff win uh he’s the becomes the third most playoff wins from a quarterback of all time Joe Montana’s got 16 and then way up in a different Stratosphere Tom Brady’s got 35 and crunch the numbers you know I’m not math
Guy I’m a numbers guy crunch the numbers Patrick Mahomes to get to that 35 wins that Tom Brady had reached in his playoff career would have to win more than one playoff game just almost one and a half playoff games every year for the rest of his career until he’s 43 to
Get that number now if there’s anybody in the history of the league that could get there at least at this point it is Patrick Mahomes with how earliest start he had and how much success they’ve had year in and year out but it’s going to
Come to the point we talked about this I think two weeks ago the LeBron Michael Jordan argument in basketball is shaking up to be very similar with Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes one’s got the accomplishments one’s got the stats and I think with every year that passes we’re getting closer and closer to
Having that same argument with Mahomes and Brady there’s people that are already ready to anoint Patrick Mahomes as the greatest football player to ever Dawn a helmet that’s about three sizes too big but um yeah it’s it’s it just shows and as a Tom Brady guy had to slip
This in there just how remarkable it was that Tom Brady was able to not only get to the playoffs that many times but win that many games but well so he won three this year right so I mean so far so far so far exactly so I
Mean win three per year that kind of that kind of takes that one and a half down a little bit he could do it a little bit sooner but that is wild that’s amazing that Tom Brady was able to do that and I think they are very
Similar in a sense of the teams that they have led to this spot we’ve seen the best and the worst and they still find a way like this one right here clearly the best defense that Kansas City has had but offense you can’t make you can’t say that and Travis Kelce
Stepped up in a huge way the last two weeks as well for playoffs so yeah it’s a dynamic deal it’ll be interesting but you are correct that conversation is getting nearer and nearer year by year uh Patriots are grabbing their Coller every year as the uh the Chiefs continue
To win 17 to10 final puts the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in The Last 5 Years and I was interested to see not only the betting numbers on the late game Lions 49ers but also the viewership numbers got this number right
Before we took the air that game had 56 million viewers which was the most watched telecast in the NFL since last year’s Super Bowl it’s also the fourth highest nons Super Bowl broadcast in the history of the Fox network so people were ready they they saw a boring
Low-scoring first game that put a team that a lot did not want to get to the Super Bowl in and they said all right we’re going to we’re going to tune in and see if the Lions the uh Team of Destiny as a lot of people like to call
Them uh can can pull it off against the 49ers but we talked about it in this game non withstanding the lions are built for long-term success more so than a lot of these other teams like a Houston or some of some of these other teams like a Green Bay that had real
Flash in the pan type of year I don’t know if I would say compare it to Green Bay completely because I do think they have a chance to they’re very young as well but the Lions did prove themselves in with Gibbs leaport I mean Dan Campbell built a very good team right
Here and I think they can move forward but I I don’t disagree with his comments and I really appreciate how real he was with his team when he said this might have been are one shot and then he went on to say do I believe that no do I but
It’s it’s being realistic and if that were me that would definitely motivate me more than saying oh you guys did a great job we’ll be back next year you know it was very real and it was like it’s very hard to win in this league I don’t want to completely break your
Hearts but this was a huge opportunity that we let slip away so if we get it back next year remember this feeling kind of thing well if there’s one thing that Dan Campbell is is going to give you it’s honesty he’s about his real a person as I could imagine on this Earth
He’ll tell you exactly how he’s feeling and the the big story line in this game were the twoth down conversions attempted by the lions in the second half both of them in field goal range neither of them successful and I don’t know where you necessarily stand on this
But it was really interesting to see kind of the the back and forth on social media some people say the numbers say this I tend to think more that’s who they were and what they did the entirety of the season and I don’t think you can
Go away from that uh just because it’s a playoff time and I really liked what Dan Campbell had to say in his in his press conference after the game where he talked about the decision to go forward on fourth down both times take a listen yeah I just felt really good about us
Converting and uh getting our momentum and and not letting them play long ball um you know they were bleeding the clock out that’s what they do um and I wanted to get the upper hand back um you know and it’s easy hindsight and I get it you know um I get that
But I don’t regret those decisions and that’s hard you know it’s hard because you know they didn’t we didn’t come through it wasn’t able to to work out but I just I don’t I mean that’s about as as heartbroken as I’ve ever seen Dan Campbell and again he he’ll tell you
Like it is and I I like that he owned up to it he said I know I’m going to get all the flak I know it’s all going to fall back on me but I like the chances and again it’s consistent with what they’ve done all year see after the
First one then you have another opportunity and you can tie it up again after you fall behind that’s when you got to kick it and you got to take any points you can and I understand what you’re saying I mean don’t go away from who you are and what you’ve done all
Year but this isn’t just a regular season game you know you don’t have another one next Sunday if things don’t go right so you have to kind of adjust and you know make decisions based off of that 49ers it’s tough it’s tough Big Time comeback win which is something
That we haven’t been able to say about the 49ers really until the last two weeks 34 to 31 final 17-point comeback is the biggest in Conference Championship game history it’s pretty impressive I couldn’t believe that nobody had come back from that at all let alone in the second half right
Because we’ve seen it in the Super Bowl yeah but that was the biggest in the conference Championship so yeah I was surprised by that as well the 49ers turns out they can complete a late game comeback that was the storyline behind KY Shanahan and Brock pie all year was
That all their losses they were trailing heading into the second half and were not able to come back and and mount the comeback victory we’ve seen it now back-to-back weeks against two very strong two very motivated and two very NFC North teams in uh in Green Bay and
Detroit I don’t know if there’s a single guy who has turned around the personal narrative more than anybody in the league than than Brock py I mean he went from being this guy stinks it is a it’s the coach it’s the scheme it’s the players around him he just finds ways to
Win I know but there’s still so much hate around him and even going into that game people were still talking about him and they were like he’s the worst of the four quarterbacks between these four teams and it’s just like why do we why are we even talking about that he’s got
Them to this point right and then he goes out there and I mean he did prove a lot of haters wrong again like you said he just keeps winning but yeah it’s it’s a little unfair how much is and I don’t think he stinks I mean he is a game
Manager Alex Smith was having some fun on social media was uh saying that he he is denied access to the game manager Club because he’s more than that um but like it’s one of those things do we know if Brock P’s I’m me this sounds Blasphemous he’s in the Super Bowl do we
Know if he’s still any good and this is I I defend Brock py more than than a lot of other folks because I’m fine with a game manager and when they say he was the worst of the four quarterbacks that’s because every other quarterback
Had either won an MVP or been to a Super Bowl right if you count you know Jared Goff and Goff was fine Jared Goff did not lose this game for the Lions it was all in the defense which granted we and everybody else in in our industry have
Been saying if the Lions lose this game it’s because of their defense I just think that this game some higher power playing a cruel trick on the city of Detroit but it came down to what everybody thought it was going to come down to you are 100% right we’ve been
Saying that they’ve been outgained their defense we’ve seen the holes especially late down the stretch here but came back to haunt him I have a question for you what do you think about Jimmy Garoppolo does this not feel all too similar when we just saw these two in 2019 they
Played the Super Bowl in 2020 and it was Jimmy garoo that was leading this team and when we got to this point we still kind of were asking ourselves how good is Jimmy G exactly I but I think a lot of the credit needs to go to Kyle Shanahan obviously obviously does for
His schematics and the talent that they’ve built around him uh remember this George KD might as well have not even stepped on the field he did not make much of an impact in this game at all I think that they’re going to turn him loose in the Super Bowl way too
Early to give out numbers or anything but I I like K Over CRS we are going to take a look tomorrow on the show at a lot of the opening lines for these Super Bowl props but that’s a very good comparison and it’s it’s a direct it’s
Apples to Apples I hadn’t really thought about that although and they played the Chiefs they have a very similar game Garoppolo and pryd but I don’t think it as individuals you could have any two different guys garolo is a GQ model and uh Brock pry has a roommate that that
That’s all you need there but so here we are after the the conference Championship Games we’ve got our Super Bowl matchup in two weeks 49ers opened most places at either two or two and a half it’s now down to one although Vinnie just told us it did go back up to
One and a half thanks to the uh better x with a lot of the uh lot of those big tickets there it’s the 15th straight Super Bowl Alex where the spread has been four points or less okay and that’s a huge huge huge departure historically
This is a number that I found from 1991 to 2006 the Super Bowl feature spread a spread bigger than four points 12 out of those 16 years wow and it was basically the ‘ 07 Super Bowl on is where we kind of saw that start to flip
And I think that that tells us that the NFL as a whole has developed so much more par it’s not just these dominant teams running their way through the regular season in the playoffs we’re starting to see that a everyone is kind of closer to each other than we think
And B it is a lot harder than ever to get to this point you make great points and what do you think about yesterday we had two great games I mean they were completely different and you kind of mentioned it with the viewership but that first one defensive battle even
Though we had two of the best quarterbacks in that game defens has really showed up and then the late one was such a good game how many lead changes did we see throughout that game with these two so yeah I mean I you’re you’re right it’s different I can’t
Believe it’s that many in a row under four pretty incredible and this one’s about a pick yeah it’s definitely moving that way especially if we can get some some more these these big tickets coming through another note that I found was that this is the fourth Super Bowl ever
Where it’s a rematch of head coaches with with the same teams okay in the past it was Tom Landry and Chuck null Jimmy Johnson and Marv Le and then Tom Coughlin and Bill bich and both the Patriots giant Super Bowls uh Andy re got the better of Kyle Shanahan a couple
Years ago in the instances where there’s a rematch the coach that won the first game has swept the second game wow there’s never been a head coach that has coached against a team and a head coach that they’ve previously faced in the Super Bowl that’s been able to come back
And win so if you like the Chiefs that bods well for you wow yes I was waiting to see where you were going to go with that I was not expecting it to be that they swept and both of them to be honest with you it’s almost like the narrative
In college basketball or even in the NFL with divisional games like it’s hard to beat the same team two to three times in a year it is hard to beat a team that has beaten you especially in a stage like this where they’ve got the game plan and both teams have remarkably
Similar rosters Chiefs have a little bit more difference on the defense but remarkably similar for both of these teams from where they were a couple years ago it’s just it’s it’s funny how things can flip around so quickly like I had the ners potentially beating the Ravens in the super Super Bowl the
Ravens embarrass them on Christmas and they get another chance here if it was that matchup and now we get the Chiefs and the ners and I don’t know what to do especially because if you give Kansas City Andy Reid Patrick momes two weeks to prepare for a game you have to
Completely change how you’re handicapping this game it’s certainly a lot to be said about these two teams about this matchup and I’ll be really interested to see where this number on the game moves the total I don’t think that moves a ton but I think that the
Spread and the action is going to go back back and forth uh we got our guest LU aaro on in about 10 minutes but before we bring Lou on we wanted to have some fun with halftime show props we’re talking props we’ll get into props on
The game tomorrow on the show but we’re talking halftime props and it’s Vegas it is the entertainment now the sports and entertainment capital of the world the lcva has pivoted we are the sports and entertainment capital of the world here in Las Vegas Usher who has a residency
At Caesar’s Palace nearby and uh he he is performing it’s going to be I I think visually a a striking show and our prep for the for this I hope you realize that I I love these halftime shows I love the performances I love the Ria that comes
With it and I’m a big music guy so this is a big um kind of betting Market in a lot of offshore keep in mind you cannot bet these in Nevada they they don’t offer entertainment props at all or in the Super Bowl uh but these are these
Are all offshore for now some states eventually will open them up with some of the bigger markets but uh you you cannot bet these in Nevada that that is our disclaimer ahead of time you never will with the way the gaming commission is uh for better or worse but the first
One we’re going to take a look at keep in mind it’s Usher think of your favorite Usher songs first one is how many songs will be performed in total now this is for the whole show total set at eight and a half I’ve got a stat for
This as I do for most things your initial thoughts on the number of songs because I certainly had an idea as soon as I saw this number I would have to go over this because I mean Usher has a lot of number one hits he’s had a lot of
Songs um throughout his career so I would I would lean to the over and I I did too and we we we looked it up last year Rihanna which was the biggest most viewed halftime show ever keep in mind it was just her there were no collaborations which is kind of where
We’ll go here in a minute it was all Rihanna she did 11 songs total and it was in 13 minutes they went rapid fire through them but if you look at the set list 1 2 3 4 five six seven parts of so she got through 11 songs and parts of
Seven others that’s impressive she was lying so I’m glad that you said I don’t think you know this I love these halftime shows well you impressed me right away when we were kind of talking about this and I said I think I’m the only person that liked the Rihanna
Halftime show and you go what do you mean I loved it so I would like to know what everybody behind the glass thought too because it was very mixed last year with ranna’s halftime show our director an because she’s got the mic back there your uh your thoughts on the Rihanna
Super Bowl halftime show last year uh I’m gonna say I don’t remember it very well there was that was the whole thing with it was like it was about her you know oh is she now revealing that she’s pregnant that that was the big thing too
With that right yes yeah so no her favorite it didn’t stick with me I think we’re we’re of the age where Rihanna kind of got really big as we reached our teenage years and and into college so she was always just kind of playing in the background and I I I have always
Liked Rihanna Y and I was very surprised she didn’t do any collaborations so I’m I’m interested to see our next one yes is the total number of songs with collaborations now this is other artists other than Usher on the stage with him it’s over under two and a half and I
Think with the fact that there were zero last year they let Rihanna executive produce the whole thing and she did all of her own songs because she’s got such a ridiculous catalog I say there’s no way that this goes under two and a half there’s going to be three other people
Performing with him at some point right I love it it’s Las Vegas why wouldn’t you bring as many people in as you could to really do a big show especially first time here in Vegas so I’m with you I think over two and a half I think
Jerry’s shaking his head yes he likes it yeah Jerry’s our our music expert in the back the best best musician we got in in on the stage here what do you think over or under Jerry over he says over two and a half I agree well that leads us right
Into our next one is the odds to appear on stage with Usher and Performing and yeah it’s it’s a long list I had to leave some of them off when I made this graphic but a couple stood out to me right away Alicia Keys and ludicrous at minus money deservedly so they’re going
To be there they’ve done enough songs with Usher shis has executive produced some of his albums okay um there’s no way they’re not there the one that surprises me and if you’re in one of these offshore markets where you can get this Lil John at plus 105 a Las Vegas
Resident on Usher’s biggest song ever yeah if you can get Lil JN at plus money and these are the the important handicaps folks if you can get Lil JN at plus money there’s no way that he doesn’t perform with him right I don’t hate that at all but what about Will I
Am because we were looking up I said Usher’s done a halftime but I believe it was black IPS and Usher was on their halftime performance so why not bring him in as well just return the favor right that’s right well will IAM is plus
210 and if they don’t do OMG we Riot I love that song um we Riot with the whole studio last last one that we’ll look at then we’ll take a break and bring in our good friend Laro is the first song to be performed first song that Usher performs
And it’s interesting to me the order and how it’s changed there Believe It or Not There are number moves okay on the offshore markets uh for this first song prop right now love and the club and OMG are 3 to one I’m going to put my money
If I could on OMG I think that the beginning of that song is is great yeah at 5 to1 that one will be performed early on it open as a plus 225 favorite in this offshore Market that I found and then moved to five to one that’s crazy
So that means more money’s coming I’m going to be honest with you I’ve never picked the right first song so I really I don’t even know where to go with this cuz I’m looking at burn but that might just be a what I want them to play you
Got to think of the first like 10 seconds of the song and how you would come out to it my my Darkhorse pick in this one DJ got has falling in love yeah that is a good one get that at 5 to one it’s got a great high energy intro and
Uh yeah just a couple of look at some early super bowl half time I love this stuff too and again you will not be able to find these at all in Nevada it is all offshore markets for now but I thought that would be a fun way to kind of
Transition into the uh Super Bowl preview so what about like the coin toss and any of those kind of props do you like those as well I do coin toss is one that you can bet in Nevada it’s it’s basically anything that can or cannot be influenced by a producer that was the
Way that I was taught to think about it like Taylor Swift how many times are they going to show Taylor Swift can’t bet that Nevada because it is influenced by a producer in someone’s personal choice OAS as close to 50/50 As It Gets
In the world yes it is so I I do like some of those I don’t normally play a ton of them yeah um and then the all the pregame fun ones all the uh Gatorade all the whatever those those are fun but more so in like a social setting you
Know pick them pool or whatever with their group of friends but uh yeah Super Bowl 58 believe it it can’t and it’s here in Las Vegas right down the road we’ll get to do a lot of things covering it and bring it to everybody who watches our show South Point’s going to have
Some great coverage stay tuned to our social medias where we will announce that over the next coming days so that’s our look at the NFC and AFC Championship Games an early look at the Super Bowl right down the road at allegion Stadium about uh what 10 minutes down the road
From us yep pretty close Frank said six miles six miles that’s all we could walk that we we got to get started we’ll take a break when we come back our good friend linaro joins to give his thoughts on the conference Championship games and
The big game and we’ll take a look at an NHL betting model as we get towards the end of the regular season don’t go anywhere back in 120 seconds on Sports by the book South Point offers all the types of entertainment you’d expect at a first
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Book she’s Alex white I’m Matt nett we got a full crew behind the glass today too Alex we got Kaden Jerry an and the the Drew dog we got a full crew back there and uh we we appreciate their work trying to make us look and sound good
And joining us now great friend of mine and a great handicapper of multiple different sports it’s Lou ficaro gambl on Twitter gamble.com Lou great to see you again my friend and thanks so much for joining us here in South Point Studios Matt Alex I’m tickled to be here
With you share a few insights uh on what was and maybe what will be so uh I’m looking forward to uh you know a little give and take this afternoon yeah and speaking of what was I want to get started because if people go and check out your your Twitter profile at gambl
You had some really strong thoughts you had no holds bar against the Ravens yesterday you said that Chief’s first half which was a bet that you had at plus three and a half was like stealing money that was that was the word that or the phrasing that you had used that was
One that you had locked in early in the week you were all over it I’m with you Lou on the Ravens from a play calling perspective what were your thoughts on that game well I I do want to disclose that the three and the Chiefs plus three and
A half I I said it was like stealing after the gamble was was made and and won um I’ll be honest with you I was tempted to try the Middle With The Raven money line and the Chiefs plus three and a half at the time it was just three
When I saw the three and a half everything fell by the wayside and I just stuck with the one side momes with the three and a half I’ve been skeptical about Lamar only because in past opportunities he has just not been able to rise to the occasion and yesterday
I’m not going to hang it all on him I I really believe coach monin uh got his fingers caught in the in the uh meat grinder a little bit by trying to do and create an offense that is not to the personality of the Ravens we saw the
Ravens go into San Francisco some weeks ago and use Gus Edwards and a couple other running backs and pound the ball and really create a a great great Mystique for the Ravens but yet when they get to Kansas City a team with a 27th ranked dvoa Rush defense they threw
It all out the window and tried to create a pocket passer out of a guy in Lamar that I don’t think is totally comfortable in that realm then the bully got a little tight and we started to see him crack a little bit in the form of
Those uh 15 yard penalties they were uh the Ravens penalized eight for 95 yards against the Chiefs three for 30 composure and Leadership means so much much at this stage of the NFL and I just think the difference in the game was Kansas City’s leadership and composure I
Agree with you 100% so where does that lead us now was that more on the Ravens and their lack of composure and preparation for this Chiefs team or is it the Chiefs have the chiefs turned a new leaf and can we believe in them going to the Super Bowl and winning
This well that’s a great question and the way that I’m going to try and address that Alex is that it depends on San Francisco I don’t believe Shanahan’s going to change who he is and I think we’re going to see a heavy dose of Christian mcaffrey maybe even Eli
Mitchell and Debo Samuel they will absolutely address and attack that Rush defense and it’ll be up to Kansas City to prove that their defense is what we just saw as well if San Francisco can get the lead and maybe put a little pressure on Kansas City then we might
See that Kansas City offense of week 13 14 Etc creep back into our TV sets yeah the the excuse me the Chiefs never really were pressured once they took the lead they were in control even though the the final score was within a touchdown they were in control the whole
Time their drives in the second half by the way I didn’t realize this until after the game five punts and the end of the game they didn’t need to do anything in the second half and the Ravens wilted like a flower and I I think that to to
Your question that you asked Lou earlier I think that that says a lot more about the Ravens and like you had said Lou about their their play calling they had 11 designed runs in the game six of them to running backs and I know Lamar Jackson is the best running quarterback
In the NFL but you said it Luke they tried to make him a pocket passer and it came back to bite them but I think there’s a lot that needs to be said as well about the consistency and what we’ve seen Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes develop to your point from a leadership
Perspective they they’re the closest thing to a dynasty at the Patriots level that that we’ve seen and they’re back in the Super Bowl after their fourth AFC title game win in the last five years Lou want to get your thoughts on the late game as well we we had Vinnie and
Jimmy on early they talked about how the handle on the late game was more than the early game there were more people that watched it on TV and it ended up being a better more fun game to watch the Lions covered every number the total went way over what were your thoughts on
That one cuz you weren’t as aggressive on on social media with with either team in this game in that first game Matt I had I stood to gain way more with a raven win than the chief win though I had Futures on each side in the second
Game I was all San Francisco and I was vocal that San Francisco was going to be able to handle Detroit and I couldn’t have been more incorrect uh these games are very very interesting we saw Detroit give Kansas City their first loss of the Season early in the year and so it’s all
About matchups and I really got that one incorrect I got lucky with the fact that San Francisco was able to write the ship at halftime and come back I can’t hold anything against Coach Campbell for being exactly who he was all year long but I think that when it comes to
Analytics there isn’t a blanket that we can throw over a situation and call it this is what you do it comes down to this situation on this week at this particular time and at this juncture of the game and in this particular case there were a couple of I don’t want to
Say mistakes but I think that Coach Campbell Savvy as he is all season long made a couple of erors number one not taking a late field goal number two with the timeout I know it’s way too early to ask for picks just yet but I mean you broke
Down a lot there for us looking at the ners now this is two weeks in a row that we’ve seen them come out kind of flat and get shut down in the first half so we have two weeks to prepare and you brought up a lot of respect for Shanahan
And I think we all have respect for him as well but so what do the ners have to do to win this game and I again it’s way too early to get your picks we’ll have you on again to talk side and total in this game but any thoughts already for
This Super Bowl looking at the ners side yes Alex I my thoughts are this respect the bookmaker why did they come out with two and a half and then the hordes immediately take it down to one so I tend to respect my bookmaker I tend to lean to San Francisco in this game
Because I don’t believe they’re going to throw out their identity and I believe we’re going to see them attack the underbelly the soft side of the chief team which which is Rush defense and for that uh matter right now I think that there it’s a bargain on San Francisco at
A pick or minus one one and a half still plenty more to come as we preview Super Bowl 58 and we’ll have plenty of coverage here at South Point Studios stay tuned to our social media and we’ll tell you all the fun exciting stuff that
We’re going to do he’s l f Carl joining us here to not only talk Super Bowl but some hockey as well we’re getting into the second half almost the NHL All-Star break here they they Allstar games a little bit later um but wanted to get your thoughts I I understand that you
Know you look at the regular season for NHL from a betting perspective but you’re not big in terms of betting day-to-day sides totals Puck lines you use it as a data modeling source for the playoffs and I understand the reason is because the game changes so drastically
From the regular season to the hockey playoffs which in my opinion is the best of all the four major sports in terms of the intensity in the playoffs so my question for you right off the bat twofold Lou a how do you take a look at
The regular season when you comes to the playoffs and B what makes playoffs hockey so much different in the NHL well those are two great questions and the first uh a will be that after 82 games of data I I think for anyone that’s really paying attention it it’s
Hard to make mistakes it’s hard to show something that one is not after 82 games of data and so for that reason I like to compile the regular season for data only that’s not to say that in these last couple months after the allstar break
I’ll lay out a position here and there I think I have one for Tuesday the 6th when Edmonton comes to their arch rival Las Vegas is a matter of fact so uh to answer a I’d love to use the data to create my model and my model then
Becomes the answer to B and that is the the season that is the Stanley Cup playoff season that six to nine weeks is so drastically different than its regular season that I regard these two seasons as completely different sports and a case in point will be a team like Boston and here’s a
Team in Boston that has a great defensive minded team but when you look at the standings you see that they’ve lost nine overtime games well overtime is three on three let’s tap each other on the rear end and play a bunch of wide open space offensive hockey and that is
Not what the playoffs are there’s no room on the ice in playoff hockey there’s no three on three unless you have some form of melee that doesn’t happen anymore and consequently the the fact that we played until they finish in playoff hockey makes That season completely different and I get the fact
That if Florida’s playing Ottawa and in two nights Ottawa has to go to Boston and the next night Florida has to go to La they can’t play triple overtime I totally get that but the game changes from an offensive game in the regular season to a game that’s played from the
Goal out in the postseason and that’s exactly how I handicap it I look at a team like the LA Kings they’re a team a little bit struggling with goenda season no they’re designed perfectly for it but they’re not designed to play three onree hockey with the Edmonton and the Toronto and the
Floridas that is great info okay so when you say model is this like a power rating are you updating the teams every night after the games no I do not I do not watch it that closely because nhl.com can do all of that for me what I
Do Alex is once the SE the regular season and those 82 games are over I then compile my I’ll call it a model but an old saddle like me it it’s really an Excel file that tracks the important components that I want to track shots against faceoffs one goal tender go goal
Against and and save percentage these are the things that have been available to me for 20 30 40 years I’ve used them effectively and I don’t want to change now in lie of the fact that there are all kinds of new terms and new ways to
Look at hockey it’s still the exact same game that I grew up watching when Bobby or and the Bruins were facing the mavage boys against in uh Montreal less less guys going full full airborne vertic or horizontally in the air than than the Bobby or days
Right well they did it then he kind of changed thing he was the prototypical new defenseman that now we see all over the NHL would love to get your thoughts on some of these Futures as well how much does your uh original thoughts on the NHL playoff kind of go along with
How this Futures Market is right now in the NHL yes I’m I was looking at that to prepare for the show Plus this is the time of year where the NFL gets put aside and besides the UFC I focus completely on the NHL and there’s
A couple of things that I would look for at this point in time for a future candidate I I need coaching I really need a team that’s been there meaning in the playoffs last year I don’t need it but I strive for that so A Team like Vancouver effective as they’ve been this
Year may may not be a team that I end up relying on rather I’m looking at a team like Florida I’m looking at a team like Boston unimaginative but those are both 10 to1 teams on the western side in the Campbell it’s right under the my nose I
Think I look for the Vegas golden knights this is a team has a couple of really strong goenda o last year’s MVP def the defending Champion they got a great coach and I think that we’ll see them at the other side of this Allstar break get
A chance at a playoff type game when Edmonton comes to town that will be as close to a playoff style atmosphere as we can get in the regular season I’m sure that will be maybe a pick them perhaps Vegas comes a little bit of a favorite but make no mistake about it
The golden knights are in no hurry to let Edmonton come and break a record on their eyes so you’re leaning towards the knights in that one Lou oh I’m dying I’m salivating to wait to see what the line is because I’m gonna bet him and if Edmonton does
Happen to get by those golden knights I’ll come right back with Phoenix the following game because then the emotion from Edmonton will be what a relief and maybe I catch him as a big dog with Phoenix I’ve been following hockey for the last few years and I make my own
Numbers I think you might be getting a little plus money with with the nights next week because of this this streak that Edmonton has been on and this win streak and they’ have just their power rating has gone up quite a bit there but I love all the information you gave um
I’m very excited because the last few years I’ve found myself do phenomenal in round one of hockey and then just feel like I kind of lose it as it goes on so I’m going to use some of your tips and make sure to incorporate that this year
For the Stanley cut playoffs I’ll share everything that I can I I miss as many as I win however when you’re betting dogs 50% can actually return a a very very sound Roi that’s why you’re one of the best he is Lou ficaro at gambl on Twitter gamble.com first time joining us
Here on this show Lou you were amazing as always and I can’t wait to have you back on soon thanks so much for having me keep up with the great work you guys are both brilliant young handicappers keep up the great work I appreciate it l that’s that’s just his
Opinion no l and aaro one of the best and was wanting to get his thoughts on some UFC but there really isn’t a big card coming up until UFC 300 so we’ll certainly have him on to handicap some MMA that is where he makes his hay he is
Great at at UFC MMA but UFC specifically and uh he’s he’s one of my oldest uh sports betting media folks that I’ve that I’ve been in we forgot about Waste Management too so he this is good he said that he likes dogs he looks for
Them in the playoffs for hockey UFC is a great sport where you can uh get some plus money and he kills it yeah that’s awesome I’m excited to start having on next time we have next time we have LU on it’s got to be before February 8th
Because the Waste Management Open is in Phoenix where he’s from want to get his thoughts not only on the the handicap for that but just his thoughts on the event as a whole that’s the the number one golf tournament outside of the Masters that I would absolutely love to
Go to I think I’m going to make it not this year but potentially next year I think it’s on everybody’s bucket list if it’s not it should be for sure just a couple minutes left in the show we’re going to close things out with a quick
Look at a very light slate in college basketball tonight Alex and I uh each have at least one play which is uh kind of surprising considering how how poultry the market is the one game that we don’t have a play on 881 882 on the on the betting sheets number 12 Duke
Lang 3 at Virginia Tech that game coming up in just over a minute uh Duke langing the three I would take it but Duke’s just been so inconsistent and especially on the road in the ACC which is down as a whole but weirdly competitive as a conference this year uh that’s a total
Staya away for me uh the one that you and I both have uh it’s an official play for me are you in on this one I’m in we’re in okay Squad ride we’re going with the Houston Cougars Baby Ken Pal’s number one rated team they’re number
Four in the polls they’re laying five at Texas that’s a rivalry game that starts at 6 here on the West Coast on ESPN I love Houston they’re 18 and to both of those losses in the Big 12 but got to remember the strength of the Big 12
Overall my big thing for this one is the defense of Houston and that has been the key all year number one overall in kenpom number one in adjusted defense Texas number 73 in adjusted defense and number 36 overall and for those of you that use Hasam metrics he’s got it
Projected as a 10-point Houston win so that notwithstanding I I like the Cougars in kelvin Samson’s team tonight it’s scary when you have to lay points and they’re on the road in college basketball because we know how much uh that home court does mean but I like
Houston here as well I I have Texas as like the ninth best team in the Big 12 so out of 14 so that’s great Houston of course number one I think they’re about 10 points better than Texas Texas 14- six on the year three and four in the
Big 12 so it’s a buzz saw this year in the Big 12 as it has been recently and uh Texas has been getting the worse of that so far and we each have one obscure play in the uh the right in games you and I each have one I’ll I’ll allow you
To go first L okay so I’m on the under here in NC Central and Delaware State under 135 both of these teams are very good defensively not so great offensively I say very good they’re about 2011 adjusted defense that is Central there but they are second best defense in
Their conference and then Delaware state is the best defense in that conference both teams are 4-0 to the under in their last four games which were conference games so I like these two good defensive battle 135 is too high numbers B well and you said both of those teams have
Gone underne of their last four yes they have so as of late that has been the trend as well and then my obscure play Morgan State at norfol state I’m going to lay 12 and a half with the Spartans at home Northfolk state that game actually opened at 12 and a half it’s
Now closer to 13 and a half I got this one last night when the the opening numbers came out so if you can get anywhere near 13 I I still like it Morgan State number 346 out of 362 and kenpom uh meanwhile uh norfol State really dominant especially against the
Morgan State team norol state 13-8 they’re 3-1 in the meac has the metrics has this one as a 16-point Northfolk State win so I I like this one up to 14 but if you can get it anywhere close to 13 I got 12 and a half last night we’ll
Take it with the Spartans we’re going meac those those WR in numbers by the way 306 637 306 638 not uh normally how far down the board we go but the small late tonight that’ll do it for us here on uh Sports by the book got to get in
Those obscure plays at the end right there there’s a lot of NBA games we didn’t get get to today but we’ll have a we’ll have a lot of NBA talk tomorrow we’ll have Steve Jones on who was a former unlb basketball player just did a podcast with JJ reick so go and check
That one out he’ll join us tomorrow we’ll also talk NBA All-Star game starters I think it is important uh there’s a lot of betable markets and they’re going back to the east west format which is fine by me I didn’t like the draft I think the East West format
Is way better so we’ll get to that tomorrow the jam-pack show today glad we got everything in there thanks to Vinnie Mulo thanks to Jimmy vakaro thanks to L ficaro and for Alex White I’m Matt nett big thanks to everybody behind the glass that’ll do it for sports by the book
Back at it tomorrow 3:00 here on the West Coast be sure to like comment and subscribe to South Point Studios on YouTube as well and until then we bid you AO
