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Hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 Pebble Beach DFS tactics show we are getting a late start to an already delayed show so I had scheduling conflict uh don’t want to waste any time we got a lot to cover so let’s get right into it all
Statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money it’s going to make you a much smarter golf Gambler a much better golf DFS player go check out fantasy national.com you will not regret it in the description to the video there
Are links to all of the social media first off my X and Instagram where I post research weekly on the PGA tour that comes out every Monday I posted research this past Monday uh about the past eight winners of the Pebble Beach proam the pattern that they follow and
The players who qualified or met that criteria so if you want to see the weekly research that I do every week on the PJ tour then give me a follow at your preferred social media site X is also where I place my betting cards and my top player exposure top player usage
Uh for the week’s tournament that comes out after the DFS tactics show that’ll be no different that comes out later this evening after the show tonight so if you want to see those pieces of information then give me a follow over on X and then lastly for social media
Gab’s X handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe and if you are a subscriber to his article which is free to do you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat every Wednesday uh for uh
Or to continue the DFS talk so go show gab some support follow him over on social media and then lastly we are Live Chat is open I want to hear from you all uh who are you targeting who are you pivoting away from how much do you think
The weather’s going to be a factor and before I forget I have one more shout out as a commenter uh let me know uh and subscriber Jeffrey let me know that he had Matthew Pavone midweek uh at 80 to1 I believe is what he had so congratulations Jeffrey on your hit on
Matthew Pavone um this past week at the farmers and let’s try to keep the momentum going for a lot of the viewers here this week uh at Pebble Beach uh I still have a uh poll question to type up so uh going to be thinking about that
Here uh momentarily but let’s figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 2024 Pebble Beach proamp and we’re going to start as promised with the updated winf finder forecast for Thursday and Friday and then we’ll look into Saturday and Sunday um let me type up this poll question here very very
Quickly uh start a poll um uh how much are you factoring the wind into play this week um significant um decent barely or not at all all right so the poll question for this evening for this evening how much are you factoring the wind into play this
Week significant decent barely or not at all so I’d love to hear your opinion on that for the poll question this evening and as we look at the super forecast for Pebble Beach you see today looks like they’re getting a whole lot of rain and
A whole lot of wind I mean if you’ve been on social media I’m serious sure you’ve seen uh a couple of videos that have been rolling around how players are hitting drivers on par 3s uh it’s it’s pretty hectic at least it was today now that changes and coming into tomorrow it
Still looks like there is going to be a chance for some precipitation but the wind backs off into the mid teens in terms of gusts looking like you know maybe anywhere up to 10 to 12 M an hour uh in terms of sustained winds for tomorrow Friday looks very calm however
Does look like they’re uh a good chance of rain again in the morning uh on Friday so not a whole lot of wind to factor in on Thursday and Friday at least per the forecast right now and then we move to the regular forecast as the super forecast only goes
Out 3 days we see Saturday looks very calm as well still chilly still highs in the low to mid-50s and then the hectic uh chaotic Sunday still looks like it is in play with a whole lot of rain whole lot of wind so we could be looking at
Possibly a Monday finish prob uh possibly looking at uh a condensed Pebble Beach proam perhaps uh so something we’re definitely going to want to be on top of uh with this forecast moving forward this uh tonight into tomorrow morning before lineups lock if you have the luxury to if you do
Not with this being a no cut event I look it looks like you’re just going to play your guys uh you I I wouldn’t try to play you know any kind of Co stack or anything to that effect or or try to game it with
The wind and the rain the only thing I’m going to suggest is that you factor in that there’s a high high high probability of ball in hand meaning if players hit the fairways they’re going to have their ball in hand they can clean it and so on so Fairways might be
A little bit more of a premium this week than you might otherwise think but with that let’s go ahead and move to Fantasy National um we’re going to close that out in the past 12 months your top moderate and windy condition players have been Scotty sheffler Victor hin Patrick Klay Xander wendam Clark
Jordan SP Cory Connor Rory Denny McCarthy and Matt Fitzpatrick those are your top 10 total performers in terms of in moderate and windy conditions if um well actually I don’t feel all terribly that confident I talked about this Monday I don’t feel terribly confident using this difficult relative power
Filter although I did use it once um in the mixed condition model and we’ll talk about that here talk about that here momentarily I don’t feel terribly confident with it with it because you give Pros Ballin hand no matter the conditions it’s going to play pretty
Easy uh I don’t want to use the easy relative to power filter especially with all the wind and the rain and all that stuff but I don’t see this playing difficult uh the greens are going to be very soft they’re going to be very receptive I expect players to be flag
Hunting quite a bit and I could see some potential low scores so I’m not terribly confident in using the difficult relev to power filter so instead let’s just take a look at short courses as both Pebble Beach and spy glass Hill fall under 7200 yards fairly easily so in the
Past 12 months your top performers on short courses have been Russell Henley Eric Cole ludvic Oar Ben on Justin Thomas amilon oo Danny McCarthy Keegan Bradley Scotty Sheffer and sunj so there’s your uh there’s a look at the top 10 in terms of uh short course performance all right with that
Let’s go ahead and just jump straight into the mixed condition model that I have built for this week and I waited as long as possible today to try to let that forecast kind of normalize or uh become steady or at least consistent and got to be honest with you
I am I I’ve been fairly confident the past two or 3 weeks in the mixed condition models this one I’m a little hesitant about only because the weather seems to be so much of a factor so I just wanted to put that out there from
The beginning uh I am I am the Le least confident that I’ve been in this mixed condition model for a little while with that said our mix condition model for this week talked all week how off the tea just doesn’t really play a factor around Pebble Beach so we’re
Skipping that instead we looked through the the prior leaderboards last night and strokes can approach especially if it plays difficult like uh when the US Open was here at Pebble Beach if it does indeed play difficult and with the with what I expect to be ball in hand for the
Majority of the tournament I’m just targeting iron players I’m Target targeting the guys that are just going to go at Flags So 20% in Strokes gained approach normally that would be a little bit heavy normally I would not do that at Pebble Beach but again with a combination of probably Ballin hand uh
The greens are going to be soft uh receptive I expect uh guys to just be flag hunting quite a bit um it’s just I I I think approach is going to be a key factor this week 20% in Strokes scan approach I did not skip around the green
I thought about it the greens are still tiny the greens are still going to get missed Pebble Beach and at spy glass so 5% in around the green 5% in putting and I talked all we how putting was a going to be a pretty big factor so why only 5% well due to
Fantasy Nationals change in terms of gathering uh the data I’m only able to go back the last two years instead of going back the full five like I uh like I like to do um for small sample sizes so that’s why the decrease in percentage because it’s a very small sample size of
Just the PO Ana courses Pebble Beach Riv riera and Tory Pines so only 5% in Strokes game putting uh this week I do have some putting elsewhere a little further down as well but 5% in Strokes gain putting on POA the last two years I wanted to
Put a whole lot more emphasis into greens but again I expect this to play fairly I wouldn’t say easy but uh probably not as difficult as you might think and I I spent quite a bit of time Monday talking about how there are several metrics or excuse me several
Filters you could use for the greens you could use easy or difficult if you think uh the tournament’s going to play that this week you could use short courses I ended up using the moderate and windy filter for greens because of the potential of some winds tomorrow and especially Sunday now Friday and
Saturday the winds look like they’re going to be very very calm so this very well could be erroneous to put uh the moderate and windy filter on greens but I thought it was the most appropriate I did not like using short course for the greens because the only short courses
That are generally difficult is the Honda and sometimes Harbor toown now Harbor town you could argue to be a comparison course because of its small greens but really A lot of the short courses on tour play pretty easy you think about the RSM the Sony Windom uh
The Travelers a lot of these shorter courses play pretty easy now it could very well happen that Pebble Beach plays easy this week and that’s where I’ll be wrong I’ll be incorrect but I didn’t feel feel comfortable using the short course um metric because a lot of the
Short courses are easy because of that I didn’t like using the easy to power filter I also don’t think it’s going to play terribly difficult because of the ball in hand so I didn’t feel comfortable using difficult to relative to par for greens so I settled on moderate and windy conditions for the
Greens gained as the filter so that could be where you disagree with me or want to use a different filter but I do think greens are going to play a significant factor um especially since they are so small and with ball in hand you’re going to have to give yourself a lot of
Opportunities moving to scoring I am using bogey avoidance like we talked about a lot Monday uh Monday evening and I am going to use the difficult relative power filter for bogey avoid it’s because I like matching a scoring metric like bogey avoidance Bird’s gained Etc with a scoring filter
Easy or difficult relative to par just to keep things uniform so 10% bogey avoidance when it’s difficult again if you don’t think this is going to play difficult this could be erroneous to have um I think that I think there’s a better chance that this plays difficult than it does play easy
Cuz spy glass Hill is not an easy course with that said um again not just just terribly not confident in that combination because I don’t know if it plays truly difficult this week but 10% in bogey avoidance using the filter difficult 10% in par 3s
15% in par 4S we looked uh in Microsoft XL last night at the specific Pebble Peach course data saw that there’s no particular Le of par three that matters the most no real particular length of par 4 now you could argue I’m Sorry my phone’s going off you could argue that
My that you could look at 350 to 4 and 400 to 450 power fours by themselves just those two links of par fours I don’t think that’s necessarily wrong to do but you do have some short par 4S some drivable par 4S you also have some 450 plus par 4S scattered throughout
Pebble Beach and spy glass so I just decided to look at all par fours 15% in par fives 500 to 550 yards three of the four par fives at Pebble Beach play to this range on the scorecard and you have one of the four at spy glass but remember three of the
Four rounds are going to be played at Pebble so I wanted to focus on this range of par five we saw that it contributes about 2/3 of The Strokes gain total in par fives this range does so 15% in the par fives of 500 to 550 and then lastly
5% on three putt avoidance again in the last two years on POA an a greens again 5% because it’s a small sample size um so not a lot of rounds all that stuff so there is a look at the mixed condition model that I’ve made for Pebble Beach this week
Hopefully I’ve explained the reasoning why I think or why I’m not too terribly confident hopefully um it presents itself why there are several filters that could be adjusted uh several filters that just could be wrong this week um I am pretty confident in the metrics that I’m using I’m just not
Confident in the filters particularly the moderate and windy for greens the difficult for bogey avoidance hopefully I explained why I’m using them you know in ways that they it could be improved again I really don’t think off the tea is going to matter but if it does I’ll
Be weak there um if a specific length of part three or part four ends up mattering the most I will be weak to that but again I’m pretty confident in the metrics not necessarily the filters just I I’m I don’t have a strong grasp on how difficult this is going to
Play because of the ball in hand and with the wind you know it’s going to be chaotic Sunday do they try to shorten the the the tournament into three days um all of that stuff so with that let’s go ahead and move to the reveal of my rankings
And for the Pebble Beach proam my rankings go as such number one this week is Patrick kley Max hom Victor havin Eric Cole and Adam shank round out my top five Lucas Glover Christian Baden hoot Brenan Todd Justin Rosen Denny McCarthy round out my top 10 as a quick
Reminder for those who are returning viewers or for your information if you’re a new viewer my rankings are based on three criteria or three facets the fgc rank which is an analytical ranking number based on the mixed condition model that we just went over with the metrics and the filters and the
Percentages that we’re using course value is a an attempt to give a player uh a numerical value based on how well or how not uh they have played the Pebble Beach pram the past five years and since we are playing DFS we are trying to find the most unique options
So projected percent owned is also a factor in my rankings all right moving into discussing about you know a little bit about my top 10 look I don’t think I would have Lucas Glover in my top 10 uh he is really really bad on POA uh I know
He has increased his his you know he’s much better at putting thanks to the broomstick and all that stuff but he’s just really bad on POA he’s Rising significantly because I have 20% in stroke scan approach and his last 36 rounds includes when he was on that
Heater at the Windom uh into the playoffs I would not have Lucas Glover this High otherwise I don’t really have a problem with too much of my top 10 Patrick kley has played this this uh event extremely well uh three uh three times played in the past 5 years average
Finish of sixth he’s also not too terribly owned Max hom everyone knows about his prowess on PO Ana Victor hin makes a whole lot of sense ball striking um hitting a bunch of greens and his around the green has gotten better he’s actually in the top half in this field and around the
Green um let’s see Eric Cole uh talked about it last week and that’s why one of the reasons why he was a fade for me uh was that he tends to struggle on Long courses well we’re back on a short course I expect Eric Cole to play better
This week the number one par three performer I wouldn’t be too terribly concerned with the greens in moderate and windy conditions it’s a fairly small sample size that is something you might want to think about though he’s not the best in the wind in his small sample size Adam shank little bit surprising
He’s getting helped the fact that he is so unique but I mean Adam shank top 20 in irons in this loaded field top five in Greens he is the number two performer on the length of the power fives that are most prevalent at Pebble Beach and
He’s a very good putter on POA so I really like Adam this this week so a little bit of foreshadowing there when we go through the price board and when we go into the bottom portions of it uh talked about Lucas Glover bazen ho is somebody else that that is quite
Interesting he actually doesn’t have a bad statistic across here 40th actually 47th is his worst but 40th out of 80 I mean that’s top exactly half he’s got one metric that is you know in the bottom half nothing is in the red so baz Zan fairly interesting Brendan Todd has
Played this event extremely well McCarthy all World putter makes a lot of sense Justin Rose defending Champion so there’s a look at my top 10 let’s sort on this price board see where at least the members of fantasy National are going in the price board and then see if
We can maneuver around that and try to find the best pivots and the players to fade so in the 10ks we have four players this week Rory at 115 Scotty Sheffer at 114 Victor hin at 102 and Xander at 10,000 even I’m going to be honest I
Don’t think I’ve ever seen a discrepancy this large in the 10ks you have two players at 11k and two players right at 10K essentially Victor hin is the one that has R out the best because he has played the Pebble Beach proam within the last 5 years Rory Scotty and Xander have not
That is what’s hurting them in the rankings because you can see Scotty was the number one overall purely by the by the Numbers then hin then Xander and Rory look using these two I’m not going to say is is um you know out of the question they’re just so expensive
You’re going to have to drop into the 6ks to do it you just are um I do like Victor havin this week Xander should be pretty good uh here just because of the POA the California is also top five in irons Xander should be pretty good I
Would have to think Victor hin is going to be a little bit higher owned and I would have to think Rory is going to be a little bit higher owned so give me one moment as I bring up the um the ownerships sorry bring up the ownerships from Gabe he was kind enough
To share those with me since he didn’t know if he was going to be in chat this evening so let me bring up his other source of ownerships and I’ll have that off to the side over here so according to his um source which includes other areas other than fantasy
National Xander is at 235% you’ve got Scotty sheffler at 21 A2 so what I would have thought Scotty chefer was going to be much much higher owned Victor hins at 21% that makes a lot of sense I would have expected 20 to 22 and Rory is at 17 and a half or so
Percent so makes a lot of sense but I’m surprised to see Xander as high as what is expected at least per gabes other source so in the 10ks um now fantasy National has him as the most projected owned but I think I’m going to make Victor hland my number one player in the
10ks just like by my rankings here uh the the greens these an all World ball Striker number two in total par fors look as as low as he can go he actually grinds out pretty well he he avoids bogeys especially if it’s difficult if it does play difficult he’s actually not
Too bad of a putter on POA now the three putt avoidance is pretty bad but the putting on PO is not bad and the around the green game has gotten better so I will use uh some Victor hin that is some chalk I will eat especially since he is
You know in the bottom tier of the 10ks I’ll go Victor number one I wanted to go Xander second but man that is a lot of ownership I mean it is projected that a quarter of the um fantasy your fellow contestants are going to be using sander
It’s probably a good play but man that’s a lot of ownership so that really kind of leads me to Scotty to be my second choice in the te in K’s yes he’s still at 212% but I mean number one in irons number one in Greens number one in bogey
Avoidance if it does play difficult number two around the green I mean everyone knows what his struggles are it’s with the Putter and he’s actually not an abject failure on POA it’s not great but he’s not an abject failure so I’ll probably go Victor number one Scotty number two Xander third and Rory
Fourth in the team 10ks I can’t call Rory a complete fade or a full fade it might end up being that but man I don’t know the thing with Rory is surprisingly he actually doesn’t play these short par fives all that well so I will definitely make Rory
Fourth in the 10K so I’ll go Victor then Scotty sheffler because of the outrageous amount of ownership Xander projected to have I’ll go Xander third and Rory fourth and I’m probably going to use a a decent amount of these top three players but that is not the lineups that I’ve been gravitating
Towards so I’ll save that for the end of the show when we make lineups I’ve not been going into the 10ks a lot but I don’t have any problem doing that because I think there are some 6K plays um that we can look at moving into the nines Patrick kley Justin Thomas
Jordan SMI Max hom Colin morawa and lud VI obar you see all of these players rate out pretty darn well uh kley was my number one player hom was second uh hom is the second projected owned player both per fantasy National actually he might be leading per fantasy National I
Think he is 21 and uh per Gabe Source he’s second at 23% or 22.7 22.8 so max H is going to get a lot of love probably for good reason number one putter on PO Ana uh you got some reasons to to fade him if you want um he hasn’t
Been the strongest in the win he’s actually not the strongest either on these par fives these short par fives but it has not stopped him from playing extremely well at Pebble Beach in the past so fade at your own risk I really like kley seven uh 16 a
Half here at Fantasy National projected 177% per Gabe Source number one uh I don’t think he was the number one Strokes gain total player but the best average finish of all the players in the field this week uh the par 3es could be a little bit of an issue and I’m not too
Worried about his POA putting I mean I know it was really bad over the weekend at Tory Pines I’m just not all that worried about it I think he’ll bounce back round the green really good he grinds it out with the best of them I really like Patrick kley this week spe
Should be fine just very very highly owned uh he loves Pebble Beach as well I am seeing ludvic Oar here at 10% now Gabe Source has him at 15% which would be closer to a fade he’s not played Pebble Beach but I don’t think that will
Stop him from playing well the irons are better than than what’s showing here he’s been much better lately um the one thing I would I would uh think about is that win rounds have been difficult he hasn’t been at his best so that could be a reason to avoid him for sure
Absolutely uh he generally has played his best when it’s easy but all World Talent obviously um I’m a little torn on OB look I was completely wrong about Justin Thomas at the AMX he played extremely well I wanted no part of him the metrics
Say he should be close to a fade as well just due to the amount of players that I like in the nks but man uh he played really well at the AMX it sure looked a lot better these are also factoring in last year a little bit of last year which you know
Was a struggle for him so um Thomas is at 16% so fantasy National users are actually targeting Thomas More Than gab Source I’m sure I’ll have a little bit but there’s I I’m just really really really high on Patrick kley I actually don’t mind morawa either even though he’s not played the Pebble
Beach proam at least third and irons with all I mean with the ball in hand and the the the you know receptive greens I expect morawa to be very good um an accurate player you see he was fourth per uh just the pure analytics uh he’s getting hurt by the fact that he
Doesn’t or this course value is high U because he’s not played it in the past five years like um oh who was it that I was talking about like bazen hoot he doesn’t have a bad a red statistic his worst is actually 36 that around the green still
In top half of this field so I like morawa quite a bit morawa is projected at 19% per gab source so that’s a lot of ownership um if it’s at 19% you might want to back off a little bit U but I do like morawa so in the 9ks
Patrick kley is my number one player I just I I think he’s going to play extremely well this week um I really want to like morawa but seeing gab’s source of of 19% makes me a little bit hesitant spe should be pretty good but he’s going to be pretty popular
I think Max hom should be good but he’s going to be extremely popular so probably going to fade maxom a little bit a little bit I’ll still have him a little bit but um Thomas is fine I guess I just don’t have a strong feeling on Oar because all World Talent generally plays
His best when it’s easy I don’t think he’s been all that great in the wind either moving into the eights not going to go through each one price by price but um in the 8ks looks like it’s getting fairly ignored per fantasy National now in terms of gabes source let me sort on
Price um in the 8ks uh Tommy Fleetwood 14.5% um he’s at 11 per fantasy National okay I guess he was top 10 analytically but he’s got a few things that are questionable his irons haven’t been the best lately you would think he’d be a much better player in the wind
Being from England but it traditionally he’s not been one of the better players in the wind he has he also hasn’t been the best on these short par fives so I’m a little hesitant on Tommy Fleetwood other play uh the only other player in the 8ks that’s getting a lot
Of attention is Matt Fitzpatrick 14% per Gabe Source 10 and a half here at Fantasy National I personally don’t see the appeal for Matt Fitzpatrick unless you just think it’s going to be extremely difficult that’s when that he that’s when he is at his best if he’s uh if it’s around the green
Centric um difficult he’s pretty he’s he’s he’s better than what this is showing in the wind but I I don’t see the appeal for Fitzpatrick so that’s going to be a fade for me as well so in the 8ks like Tony fenale should be okay he was very dis I mean he
Played well last week at Tory Pines but disappointed uh on the back nine on sun or Saturday um still a premier iron player the PO Anna putting is fine hasn’t been as good here at Pebble as he was at Tory Pines but Tony fenale at 12 half% it’s not
Going to kill you I mean this is kind of an area of the price board like the other members of fantasy nationville I’ve just been kind of avoiding uh if you’re a big believer in Prior course form or prior course history Jason day is somebody to look at he has played
Extremely well at the Pebble Beach program especially Last 5 Years Jason day is projected right at 9% at both places the irons have been the worst in the field the worst in the last 36 uh par fours haven’t been good and you got to be good there as well the
Appeal with Jason day is he’s just an elite po Ana putter so if you think that’s enough along with the course history uh but there’s a lot to be concerned about out with J day um elsewhere fantasy National seems to be gravitating towards Ben on um 133% over at um Gabe Source 133%
Here so overlooked that one just a little bit um okay played extremely well at the Sony which was which was fine or was it the AMX I can’t remember I’ve slept since then um Elite with the power four Elite on these short par fives so you like that he’s just very
Popular this is just an area of the price board I’ve been ignoring quite honestly like I don’t want really much of Sam Burns I think more of Sam burns on Bermuda if it does get extremely difficult though he does generally tend to play a little bit
Better um I think I will use some Fe now I’m not too concerned with his poor performance last week at least on Saturday Mama’s probably okay just because of the Fantastic ball striking hopefully you tailed him in DFS last week uh with me in in at at Tory Pines
As he finished in the top 15 he was a very good play um but yeah it’s just not a lot here in the 8ks that I’m overwhelmingly excited about maybe a little bit of Hideki probably a little bit of Tony fenale I’m just I’m cautious on Tommy
Fleetwood quite a bit sunjay has not played well at Pebble Beach at all at all so be very very careful with that sunj is actually 133% per gab source as well so be very mindful of that um I think the miscuts shocked a lot of people last week it shocked me a
Little bit cuz he supposed supposedly fairly decent on POA but I don’t know sunj is just kind of erratic right now and for as much as um Tom Kim’s usually popular uh he’s not getting a whole lot of love either fantasy National or per gab source so you might
Want to look at Tom Kim this does feel like a pretty good Tom Kim course shorter um not a whole lot into the putting you see top 20 in approach third in these short par five really if I’m into the 8ks I I I probably am going to be using a little
Bit of Tom Kim all right moving into the upper and mid sevens uh JT Poston uh is an obvious play but a very good play I think he’s hovering right at that you know 13 and 1 12 to 14% at both places um very good with the irons par fors surprisingly
He has not putt well on PO Ana but his three putt avoidance is is very strong on PO Ana so something here is going to to have to normalize either he’s going to get much better putting or he’s going to get worse at three putt avoidance I
Would expect the putting to get better if he’s a good three putt avoider so JT Poston just understanding he’s not going to be terribly unique um I love Russell Henley I know he didn’t rate out well for me 46th I know the course value isn’t all that
Great don’t care we saw he was the number one performer on short corses and I don’t have a short course filter in the mixed condition model that’s also hurting him good with the irons par fors are seventh um third around the Green in this field Russell Henley is 12% per gab
Source 10 and a half here that’s not going to kill you I like Russ Henley a lot in the upper sevens along with JT Poston who’s just a little bit more widely owned take a look at Cory Connor I know the putter is a disaster on POA
Especially but at 4 and a half% per per fantasy National Connors is 6% per game Source like number two in Greens when it’s wi he’s just not going to take himself out of too many holes so you look at Cory Connor a little bit uh a
Lot of that has to do with the with the ownership and I like rose and McCarthy ninth and 10th in my rankings McCarthy much so with the putter he’s also played fairly well here um both of those players are sub 8% uh per gab source so fantasy National members are actually gravitating more
Towards roseen McCarthy uh seemingly both are pretty good in the Wind McCarthy’s irons could be a struggle that gives you some pause I don’t have any any concerns with rose especially since he’s the defending Champion loves these short par fives I think I would go Justin Rose more so
Than Denny McCarthy but I like both I like both uh moving into the kind of midow sevens um Eric Cole gonna be extremely popular he is only at 10 a half% per Gabe Source I would be much more inclined to believe fantasy Nationals um or him being closer to
Fantasy Nationals ownership say 15 to 17% I think it’s a good play he is just much much much better on short courses the irons are still there par fours are fine number one par three performer I just don’t think Tory Pines fits Eric Cole and that’s what I was
Cautious in about last week hopefully um you followed on that elsewhere in the low sevens love Nick Taylor this guy loves Pebble Beach especially the Pebble Beach proam you see 12% at Fantasy National 4 and a half% per gab source so whichever Source you want to believe I’m going to split the
Difference let’s say 6 to 7% I love that very good putter on POA very good with a short game I really like Nick Taylor this week um the more difficult you think it is the more you want to look at Keith Mitchell he generally likes shorter
Courses like Eric Cole and take a look at Brenan Todd at 7,000 I like brenen Todd quite a bit although he is going to be somewhat more widely owned in these low sevens kind of like Eric Cole uh up here at 73 Brandon Todd’s going to get some attention as well but
One of these other players that just doesn’t have a red statistic he has more that are kind of middling sure but top 20 in these short par fives fifth around the green also top 20 on PO Ana so I like Brenan Todd quite a bit at 7,000
Then finally in the sixks I do have couple of players that I do want to uh want to um share with you all definitely Christian baz hoot love CZ this week 6% per gab Source 9% at Fantasy National you know even if he creeps up closer to
10 I would like Christian bazen hoot lets you squeeze in a little bit more in the in your stars and scrubs lineups so take a look at CZ I like him anytime around or excuse me anytime off the tea isn’t a big factor really think about Andrew putam you he yet had
Played Pebble Beach terrible it hadn’t been great but it hadn’t been terrible top 20 in Greens especially in the wind he’s a fairly decent wind player he’s going to have to be a lot better at the short power fives yes but he’s fine on PO Anna it’s not great but it’s it’s
Fine he’s a short game player he’s around the green is better than what is showing here I like Andrew putam 5% fantasy National 6% per gab Source I like Andrew putam quite a bit um I shank rated out extremely well I like Adam shank top 10 in po Ana putting third in
Three put avoidance second in the short par fives so take a long look at Adam shank um if you’re going to get really really greedy really really greedy try to squeeze a Rory or a sheffler into your lineups I will mention MTH mcney you see 10% at Fantasy National
Uh 3% per Gabe source so I’m much more inclined to think he’s going to be in like that 5 to 6% maybe look I know he is second to last in the pure analytics it’s the fact that he has played Pebble Beach so extremely well three for three
In the past 5 years here he proved he’s healthy he at least made the cut last week uh made a decent charge on Sunday to be honest with you he’s a much better better player remember these stats are kind of like Justin Thomas’s are getting altered by the fact that they are still
Counting last year’s he’s Maverick mcne is a California kid and loves loves poana so I don’t hate mcne if you’re trying to get Sheffer or Rory into a lineup there’s a look at the price board where fantasy National and and others project the chalk to be and
Some pretty good pivots off of that at least in in my opinion let’s move to makinging some lineups we’ll start with tiers contest for those who play teers contest then move into our classic and our gpps in a tiers contest tier one we have Rory Scotty Sheffer and Victor
Hin uh I think it’s pretty close to be honest with you between sheffler and havland I think hin is going to be more owned in a tiers contest than Sheffer but I think he’s also a better play so I’m going to go Victor havland if you
Want to try to get a little bit of greed and try to squeeze out some uniqueness I think Sheffer will be slightly more excuse me more unique than hin but I will still take Victor hin in tier one tier two we have Xander Patrick Klay Justin Thomas Jordan spe and Colin
Morawa look I like all five of these guys in this tier I think Justin Thomas is probably the fifth I’m going to take Patrick kley simply because he’s my number one player in my mixed condition Model A little bit of foreshadowing you’re going to see him uh over on
Social media later with uh with the betting card I just really like Patrick kentley this week I think spe’s fine I think Zander’s a good play I think Mora is fine I’m just going to take kley he’s my number one player moving into tier three we have Max Homa ludick obber Sam
Burns Tony fenale and Tommy Fleetwood for as much as I like tier two I don’t really like tier three hom is the obvious play he’s going to be the overwhelmingly chalky play in tier three if you aren’t afraid of that the best play is Max hom I think I’m going to
Take my chances with Tony Fen now again Oar could be interesting as well but I’m going to take Tony Fe now try to squeeze out a lot of uniqueness especially since this is a no cut event I don’t have to worry about um him
Missing the cut so give me t F now in tier three tier four Cameron young sunjay Jason day hii Matt Fitzpatrick Ben on and Tom Kim uh kind of a twers tier for me here you might want to consider it three if you value course history a lot then you don’t then you
Want to consider Jason day I’m going to go between hii and Tom Kim I got a kind of a hunch feeling on Tom Kim so I’m going to go pretty unique in tier four as well and take Tom Kim I still think keki is a fine play uh I think Jason day is
Okay but give me Tom Kim in tier four this feels like a pretty good Tom Kim fit tier five Nikolai hoard JT Poston sahit Gala Bo HOSA Russell Henley King Bradley and Cory Connors again just like in tier three where Max hom was the overwhelming chalk
JT Poston is going to be the over elming Chalk in tier five I also think he’s probably the best play in here so I’m going to take Russell Henley and try to squeeze it squeeze out a little bit more uniqueness here uh I think Henley’s going to be fine again number one
Strokes gain total player on short courses in the past 12 months uh fine in the wind so give me Russell Henley in tier five and we’re going to round this out tier six let me swivel a little bit out of the way Harris English Matthew Pavone sep straa Eric Van royan
Christian baz Patrick Rogers and the amateur Nick Dunlap don’t care give me Christian B ho he might be the most popular in tier six don’t care I think it’s a pretty easy play in tier six so recap very quickly our tier lineup goes Victor hin Patrick kley tier three we
Will go Tony fenale tier four we go Tom Kim tier five let’s go Russell Henley and tier six we will go Christian baz all right with that let’s move to Classic lineups let’s start building what we think are going to be some chalky lineups this week and then build
Some lineups how we can maneuver around that and uh give us give ourselves a good chance to rise in the big gpps so if we’re going to try to build these chalky lineups that at least per fantasy National um members are going we’re going to start with Victor
Hland and we’re going to have to go to Max Homa uh 102 and 92 uh two of the top three projected own players uh the only one that’s um higher than these two actually uh Victor havind is tied for second with Justin Thomas so Victor H we’re then going to come down
Looks like Ben on or JT Poston JT Poston getting some getting a whole lot of love I should say uh JT Poston Adam Scott at 12 and a half Bo Hustler also getting some love at 11.7% um the bottom of this is Eric Cole and at
76 Harmon Adam Scott so yeah there is is probably a very chalky looking lineup uh especially if our fellow contestants aren’t uh aren’t comfortable going into the 6ks 16% projected match in your big gpps I mean that’s just a a very chalky lineup uh Max H the projected number one player at least
Prof or projected number one owned player per fantasy National um yeah that just there’s a lot lot of chalking here poston’s going to be chalky uh now fantasy Nationals much higher on Cole’s ownership or being high than gab Source uh if our fellow contestants are going more for stars and
Scrubs it looks like it’s Scotty sheffler and in the 10ks there are couple players getting a lot of use particularly from fantasy National um Members Mark hubard 10 and a half MAV mcney 10% I will use MAV mcne I still think mcne is a fine play to squeeze in for this reason but
He is going to be pretty chalky just understand that for the bottom of the six case he’s going to be fairly chalky but sheffler mcne um honestly they’re probably going with hom in this but we’ll throw in Justin Thomas probably um fellow contestants are thinking they can try to
Squeeze in a little a little bit more with mcneel’s 6200 coming down uh this is probably JT Poston we’ll throw in uh yeah probably JT Poston Eric Cole is in this and again at 76 is Adam Scott so you can move this around a little bit perhaps Denny McCarthy might
Be thrown in this he’s getting that 10% per fantasy National Henley’s at 10 and a half for Fantasy National you might get thrown into this but you know a little bit more unique because they’re coming down into the six case for MAV McNeely uh and sheffer’s not nearly as chalky as
What gab Source has him but still looking at a 14 and 1 12% that’s pretty high pretty high this is probably a common shell for your stars and scrubs so how are we going to maneuver around all this chalk well I told you I haven’t been doing much in the 10ks
Myself uh I’ll have a little bit I have been going to Victor hland mostly in the 10ks and in uh with these stars and scrubs lineups like you know I I don’t mind throwing an Adam shank who’s very uh very unique or Andrew putam or Christian baz who he might be a little
Bit more um widely owned uh I really like bazen who but let’s save some amount of ownership and let’s just throw Adam shank in this so we’ll go Adam shank 3.7% uh at least per fantasy National still giving us a lot of maneuverability up here you know you can use some
Players in the 9ks that you like I think maxom is going to be a little bit too popular maybe not but maybe you’re on col moreaa maybe you’re on Jordan speed um at 9,400 uh you still you see we still have 8,000 essentially per player we can drop
Into the eights again there’s not a lot in here that I like maybe you like a sun J maybe you like Jason day’s um prior course history here moving into the low or upper sevens poston’s a good play we could maybe throw Tom Kim in this I really like Russell Henley he’s going
To be a little bit more owned um let’s try let’s try Tom Kim with this yeah 7,300 we right at 9% so we’re going to jump the or we’re going to go over that 10% threshold but 7,300 you know Eric Cole a good play he’s going to
Be very high per fantasy National but Nick Taylor 7200 gosh dang it I keep doing that Nick Taylor 7200 really like this week Brenan Todd 7,000 really like this week I’ll throw Bren and Todd into this cuz I’m trying to save Nick Taylor for the other my A+
Lineup if you will but there’s a look at a lineup that’s you know right at 11% but you’re getting Victor hin one of the tournament favorites jumping down to Adam shank getting some uniqueness off the chalkier 6ks brenon Todd has played extremely well here this feels this
Feels much like a Tom k course Jason day has played extremely well here spe former Champion played extremely well here so there’s a look at a possible lineup if you’re dropping to the 6ks perhaps that could give you some amount of of um leverage on uh your fellow
Contestants but the lineups that I’ve been building the most often have been kind of a a double or triple nine going with Patrick kley my number number one player this week I I I will use some speed I’ll use some hom throw in MO morawa with
This um I don’t mind using a louic obar I’ll use some Fen now as well um you know trying to jam in a lot of these nines kley spe a little bit h a little bit because of his extreme ownership I think morao will be fine I think Oar
Probably going to be fine although you could be uh wary about his performance if it does get difficult um and then you know we talked about it you know other than perhaps Tom Kim and maybe some Tony fow who I’m using in this there’s not a lot in the
8S that I like so we’re just completely skipping that area going into the sevens you can use a Russell Henley a Justin Rose who I’m pretty high on this week the defending champion Nick Taylor actually Nick Taylor goes here like you don’t even have to jump into the 6ks if you don’t
Feel like it we still have 7700 to round out this lineup 77 you know Connors who I think is going to be okay this week Harmon I’m not necessarily there Denny McCarthy we could use absolutely in this who’s played extremely well at Pebble Beach you know there’s
Another 11 and A2 or so lineup a different Look To the victor hin 10K plus a 6K but you know you don’t have to drop into the sixk if you don’t want to and you’ve got you can still find Value throughout the price board absolutely just really really like kentley this
Week um I really like Nick Taylor you know I’ll be throwing in some bazan hoot into these types of lineups I will drop into 6ks for baz who really like him you can use an Eric Cole he’s just much more projected owned per fantasy National but
You can use an Eric Cole I think Eric Cole is going to be pretty good this week so there’s a look at a couple of different builds that you can use this week to try to gain a little bit of of Leverage on your fellow contestants I’ll
Stick around for a couple minutes if you have any other questions and again if you’re watching live I would appreciate if you jump into the poll question uh and answer that does doesn’t look like we have any answers so far I forgot that last I forgot last week to mention my
One and done player uh you’ll just have to take my word for it it’s it was Tony Fen now so I was pretty pretty excited until you know his back nine on Saturday this week because it’s a no cut event I am going with two I’m thinking
About two players that um that are probably going going to be fairly unique I think this week in terms of um in terms of ownership in one and duns really kind of thinking about three slightly thinking Justin Rose slightly but more so I’m thinking Nick Taylor who
Is my number one choice right now or Christian baz Hoot the more the week has gone on The more I’ve really liked the idea of Christian bazen hoot so I in in one of those more than likely one of these two I did want to mention Justin
Rose as that’s also a possibility in my mind um for one and done so that’s where I am in that regard but that’s going to do it for the show this evening want to thank everybody for tuning in watching listening supporting the channel always appreciate it uh whether that’s liking
The videos commenting subscribing uh I always want to hear about success for members of the community it doesn’t have to be golf either whether you’re fantasy basketball uh fantasy football um fantasy baseball’s around the corner we’ll be doing some fantasy baseball so always want to hear about the success of
Members of the community so uh keep those coming love to hear the hits that are that are happening uh always appreciate the support love what I do taking an in-depth look at sports statistics you giving you a statistician a data analyst’s view of what he sees
Trying to help us all win a little bit of money in the process for all the Wagers you have made this week for the pubble beach proam for all the DFS contests you play this week for the pubble beach pram for this weekend and every weekend may all your bets be profitable
