2024 Pebble Beach Initial Research

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Good evening ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 Pebble Beach initial research show uh hopefully you had a very successful Farmers Insurance this past week uh and are enjoying the NFC championship game that is going on uh thank you for tuning in during a an action-packed uh Sunday

Across the sporting World college basketball of course the AFC and NFC Championship uh all that good stuff but we are here to cover uh everything Pebble Beach and the Pebble Beach proam field for the week uh as I mentioned hopefully you had a very good Farmers Insurance open it was another week of

Close wh ifs should as could as and would as Tony F now ties for the lead going into the back nine uh on Saturday for the lead at uh at the farmers and then falls apart so two two straight weeks of very close outright hits we’re going to get there across the finish

Line here uh very very soon I feel like I’ve been feeling pretty good about my uh research my analysis uh all of that uh but if you had Matthew Pavone let me know jumping chat would love to hear about that how was your DFS this past week for the farmers and of course

Anything that you’re looking forward to for Pebble Beach uh So speaking of let’s get into it all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money they’ve put a lot of work in in updating

And upgrading their site in the past couple of weeks I believe a lot of the uh issues have been ironed out so go check out fantasy national.com uh you will not regret it in the description to the video there are links to all of the social media first off my X and

Instagram where I post research weekly on the PGA tour that’ll be no different that comes out usually Mondays uh Monday afternoons and I definitely have some interesting thoughts and interesting patterns for the previous winners of the Pebble Beach proam uh so if you want to

See the weekly research I do on the PJ tour then give me a follow at your preferred social media site X is also where I place my weekly betting card and my top player exposure uh for the week’s slate of DFS contests that I play so if

You want to see those pieces of information give me a follow over at X as well then lastly for social media uh gab’s X handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a great way to start your week of preparation for the tournament

Uh of the week and uh that come his article comes out every Saturday or every Sunday excuse me and then uh he updates you throughout the week with his own version of recent form course history all that good stuff uh and if you are a subscriber to his article

Which is free to do by the way you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat every Wednesday evening as we continue the DFS talk over in his substack chat after calls calls so go so go show Gabe some support if I could

Talk go show him some support uh follow him over on social media and subscribe to that article again it’s free to do so lastly we are Live Chat is open I want to hear from you all on all the things that I mentioned did you have Matthew

Pavone at 130 to one or whatever he was what do you think about Pebble Beach and the adjusted and U different style of event that it is this week than what we normally get at Pebble Beach uh who is your um lean early on in the week would

Love to hear from you all so let’s do our initial research for the 2024 Pebble Beach Pro a and we’re going to start as we always do on a Sunday evening over at the gcsaa tournament fact sheet and I teased that it’s a little bit of a different

Format this year for the Pebble Beach normally we get three courses this is another usually three course Roa like what we get at the AMX normally we have Pebble Beach um spy glass Hill and Monterey Peninsula and a Saturday cut that’s not the case this year with this

Being a signature event we have a no cut event this week again because of the signature status that it has they are still keeping the proam portion of the tournament for the first two days so a professional and an amateur will part partner on Thursday and Friday but the

Amateurs are not playing on the weekend so that is one um one way that the tournament is different this year and they are not included or not playing Monterey Peninsula this year uh hey James thanks for jumping in chat it’s been a while hopefully things have been well um would

Have would love to get back into the uh Friday night um showdowns but with schedules and some of these tournaments have still been delayed on Fridays uh I’m waiting for things just to kind of settle down and get into a routine but the goal is to try to get back into those considering

That we were somewhat successful um with those um last fall and especially the fall before that but hopefully things have been well you have had a good start to your uh PGA season um as I mentioned in the intro two straight tournaments now where close could have should have and would have

Had Sam Burns at the American Express he falls apart Tony F now yesterday at the farmers he falls apart so we’re close we’re getting close um haven’t hit any of the 150,000 to one long shots that seem to be coming in every week but we’re getting close so thanks for

Jumping in chat much appreciated as I was mentioning with Pebble Beach it’s a very very different format this year with only two courses Pebble Beach and spy glass Hill this is going to play very similar in style to what we just had at the farmers where Pebble Beach and spy glass Hill are

Played on Thursday and Friday and then the entirety of the week weekend Saturday and Sunday is all played at Pebble Beach so we’re going to focus on Pebble Beach this week uh we’ll take a look at some spy glass Hill data again courtesy thanks to Gabe for that uh but

We’re going to focus on Pebble Beach mostly Pebble Beach Golf Links very very iconic course on the PGA tour uh host of several Majors uh very regular uh course on the PJ tour nothing to do with architect this is a jack nille and Douglas Grant original design has been

Redesigned a few times probably most notably uh Jack Nicholas’s redesign of the par 3 fth Par 3 6th one of the it’s the fifth of the 6th uh the par 3 has been redesigned or was recently redesigned by him it’s been redesigned a couple of times but nothing to do with

Any of the major um Architects that we can filter in for Fantasy National Pebble Beach is a par 72 that is extremely extremely short as you can see 6,972 yards is what’s listed on the scorecard a par 72 that does not reach 7,000 yards so we are going to be

Looking at a lot of short course metrics again this week just like we did for the American Express um whereas last week we were looking at extremely long courses we played the longest course on the PGA tour Tory Pine this is one of the shortest it’s not the

Shortest but it is one of the shortest excuse me at 6,972 yards the stim says 10 and a half they would be uh slow to perhaps average uh a lot of that depends on the Wind since the majority of Pebble Beach is played uh on the coast so if the winds

Really pick up they have to keep the uh green speeds down to keep uh keep play going one of the most notable aspects of Pebble Beach besides the scenery and the fact that it is played on the coast of the Pacific Ocean is the smallest Greens

On the PGA tour their average green size is 3500 sare ft that is the smallest by a fairly significant margin Harbor Town does rival that uh but you don’t have very many uh PGA Tour greens that average less than 4,000 square ft Pebble Beach is one of them along with harbort

Toown so the smallest Greens on the PGA tour is what we’re looking at at Pebble Beach plenty of Fairway these Fairways are somewhat forgiving they do narrow in uh at Landing areas around 300 yards but um wide enough Fairways quite a bit of rough now it says number of water

Hazards is one with the Pacific Ocean it does come into play on uh about I would say six of the holes um your uh turn so from about whole maybe five or six to about whole 11 is played along the coast of the Pacific Ocean of course the the iconic downhill Par 3

Um you could argue water doesn’t come into play on that but if you were Wayward or just terrible like I am water would definitely be in play of course a very famous uh Jordan spe shot over the gorge uh so water comes into play there

So a few holes with water in play and it’s all based around the Pacific Ocean but the uh grass type is something we’re going to be talking about quite a bit for the next couple of weeks we talked about it at uh the farmers we’re going

To talk about it this week these greens are POA same as what we had at Tory Pines here at Pebble and then in a couple of weeks I think uh where when we’re at the Genesis Invitational so we’re going to be looking at po Ana greens

Again uh the rest of the grass around Pebble Beach is a combination of rye and po Ana the rough is kept maybe 2 to 3 in so not nearly as difficult to play out of as the rough was at Tory Pines this past week sorry the rough is not as long

Will not play as difficult as it did at Tory Pines but uh can be somewhat Troublesome uh some notes Here on Pebble Beach it has been very wet leading up to the tournament it’s been um a a very rainy um Southern California uh here in

The past probably month or so so I would have to imagine that the course is very soft very receptive not going to get a whole lot of roll out uh on drives um and that that rough could play a little bit thicker uh and harder just

Due to the amount of rain and and uh precipitation they’ve had out there would be a little bit of a guess as I was mentioning Pebble Beach third shortest course on the tour last year after playing the longest um smallest average green size on tour and then we’ll talk about spy glass

Hill Just a Touch um the key with um spy glass Hill is a Robert Trent Jones senior design renovated 1999 I’m not sure exactly what all of those Renovations entailed but uh it is a Robert Trent Jones senior design and he’s got a few um designs on the PGA

Tour uh spy glass Hill is also a very short course uh 7,041 is what’s listed on the scorecard it is also a par 72 uh the average green size of course a little bit larger than Pebble Beach but not by much we’re still dealing with small greens over at spy glass 5,000

Square ft you got four holes with water in play the fairways even though the acreage is very um is a lot less compared to Pebble Beach and and most other courses it’s really a pretty forgiving uh driving course uh uh all things considered the um the fairways aren’t necessarily the

Most difficult to hit uh fair you know average WID uh to maybe even a little bit forgiving in landing areas but spy glass Hill also has POA Anna on the greens and rye and po Ana uh throughout the rest of the course Fairways and rough so a lot of

Similarities here both courses are par 72s both very short both have very very small greens um Pebble Beach being the smallest on the tour uh uh spy glass pretty short as well so or uh pretty small in terms of greens as well so there is a look at the two courses we’re

Going to be that are going to be played this week again with the focus on Pebble Beach since that will be three of the four rounds so let’s go into fantasy National take a look at this week’s field for the Pebble Beach proam signature event and again this is a

Signature event so it’s a no cut event um our top players in the past 36 rounds Rory making his PGA Tour debut uh since he did not play the century turn him into Champions like he customarily doesn’t he’s making his debut uh here at or on the PJ tour so Rory Victor havin

JT Poston Scotty sheffler Colin moraa Eric Cole Xander lud viig Oar Max Brian Harmon the who’s who is here I have not seen of any uh field changes or withdrawals um ahead of the second signature event on the PJ tour you will see that I do have some player starred

That is indicating that they are an alternate so I wanted to make sure um that I indicated that as we go through uh our research tonight and into tomorrow for the data dive show any player St is an alternate there is one player missing however it is our most

Recent Champion Matthew Pavone he has not or he has not been populated in the uh AT&T Pebble Beach Field over on fantasy National so just keep that in mind hopefully he will be loaded in to the page view tomorrow or in time for tomorrow’s show but just to let you

Know Matthew Pavone is not in this page view so the first thing that we’re going to do um since we just came from the gcsaa tournament fact sheet I mean look both of these courses are extremely short so let’s take a look at performance on short courses in the past

36 rounds or 12 months uh past 12 months whichever um happens so your top performers on short courses Russell Henley Eric Cole ludvic oair Ben on Justin Thomas em milon agrio Denny McCarthy Keegan Scotty Sheffer and sunjay are top 10 in terms of performance on short courses we’re not

Going to look at uh a scoring filter just yet uh and then of course we’ll take a look at uh some approach and putting and such uh after we look at the course breakdown in fantasy National so first thing I like to do in terms of looking at a scorecard let’s look at

Where par Falls uh on the scorecard that’ll give us a general idea of how difficult or easy a course plays and we look the ninth uh most difficult hole playing over par the 10th most difficult Hole uh still overpar 12th is still slightly overpar so we’re looking at a fairly difficult

Course not as difficult as Tory Pines per se but still a pretty difficult course you have to go in between the 14th and 15th uh most difficult holes or said another way the fourth or fifth easiest holes before we find where par is now there are some scoring opportunities

Here at Pebble Beach of course with this being a sub 7000 par 72 you’re going to have some very short par fivs the par five sixth plays to almost a half a shot under par um you’ve got the par five 18th plays underpar the where’s the others

Uh the par 37th the the iconic downhill Par 3 actually plays under par and then the drivable par 44th plays uh under par but with that you’ll see just how many of these holes play a fairly significant amount overpar the par 4 second which was used to be a par

Five I believe has been converted to a par four you see you know third of a shot over par the Par Four ninth almost 410th of a shot over par the eighth and the 10th quarter of a shot over par so right around the turn is uh generally

The most difficult portion of Pebble Beach eighth 9th 10th and even the 11th generally plays fairly difficult um the par five 14th the massively uphill par five on the back nine uh you see actually played over or plays a little bit over par is one of the most difficult par fives on

The PGA tour along with I believe it was uh 13 or 14 on or at Tor that’s also a pretty difficult par five not a lot in terms of birdies here pars have generally been pretty good scores you see a very good Eagle rate on the six

The par five six that plays you know 4/10 of a shot under par but nothing else even reaching 1% on any of these par fivs or the drivable par 4 so not a lot in terms of eagles we’re definitely not going to be looking at Eagles maybe some birdies are

Better gained uh but we’ll really dig into that tomorrow but yeah there is a look at Pebble Beach in terms of a scorecard very very uh difficult holes especially around the turn with a few scoring opportunities sprinkled in again the Par Four fourth par five 6th Par 3

7th um the par five 18th generally plays under par we move to uh Strokes gained by shot type for our top 10 much more even distribution of what we had last week when um it was a a lot of ball striking with uh quite a bit of with of

Putting at Tory Pines much more even as the around the green outweighs the off the te already in terms of top 10 finishers approach still higher than putting but not by much top fives the putting is still starting to um catch up with the uh approach you see how even

The ball striking in the short game are in terms of of Strokes gained and then for our win the approach actually takes off a little bit um away from the putting but you just as you see how massive of a difference the around the green is here

At Pebble Beach as opposed to off the tea there are some forced layups there are I mean the course just in general just isn’t long so the driver is not a focused aspect at Pebble Beach and with the smallest Greens on tour you would expect players to be missing them uh

Fairly often so around the green will definitely come in so nothing too out of the ordinary except for the fact that maybe the putting is lagging slightly behind for our winners uh it’s just to go just goes to show that you’re going to have to hit your irons very well

Around pubble Beach to to contend we look at Strokes gained by Ho by par as you would expect in a professional environment most of the pros are gaining the most Strokes on these par fives but the par 3es are outweighing the par fours slightly for the top 10 moving

Into the top fives changes drastically where the par fours really take off away from the par 3s and then for the winners the par fours actually try to catch up to the par fives so it’s interesting to note that the par 3s are there for the top 10 but

Not the top fives of the winners so it’ll be interesting to see what uh what the data shows in Microsoft Excel maybe even a little bit tonight but a lot more so tomorrow in the Daya dive show all righty we’ve got that on the top 10 whole composition uh I don’t know what’s

Going on here with um with Pebble Beach and uh the whole composition uh this chart is all kinds of messed up but you do have the very short par three again the iconic downhill par three with the ocean in the background you got one extremely short par three one from 175

To 200 and two from 200 to 225 you have a drivable power 4 you have a bevy of 350 to 4 and 400 to 450 power fours you do have a couple 450 to5 par Forge uh let’s see you got a 4 51 you have a

498 but you also have two extremely long par fours 529 531 um on the scorecard and that is there and then the par fives three of them measure from 500 to 550 you do have one from 550 to 600 the par 514th that plays extremely uphill the entire way so

It plays longer than the 587 on the scorecard so again apologies for the um messed up whole composition but hopefully was able to explain that a approach shot distribution you see the majority of approach shots as you would expect at a short course look at this massive difference in approach

Shots from 100 125 compared to the average Tour event and that’s the uh uh length of approach shot that is most common at Pebble Beach so we’ll definitely go in and see tomorrow if this range U leads or lends itself to high leaderboard success but in your initial

Research later you know throughout the rest of tonight and into tomorrow prob might want to look at guys that are proficient from 100 to 125 yards considering the um amount of short par fours that are here at Pebble Beach cut line this is going to be a little bit

Skewed of course because this is generally a 3day cut or a 54 hole cut uh but it has been minus5 – 6 hovering in that range for the past you know 7 to eight years uh can get fairly tough with being a minus three due to the wind if

It really lies down it can get very easy uh but we’re not worried about a historic cut line this week because this is a no cut event but this does help um give you an idea of how generally easy or difficult a tournament has been pble

Beach at least to me has always played roughly average roughly average scoring distribution there are a few birdies around here especially on those par fivs uh the par 3 uh 7th generates a few bird IES so you do have quite a few birdies but what you also have around Pebble

Beach is a whole lot of double Bogies you can see a pretty sizable bar here in terms of double bogeys so if you stack the scores that are overpar with the scores that are underpar you’re actually going to get a few just slightly more um holes that are underpar than

Overpar but it’s very slight and you can see the Eagles bar is essentially non-existent so pretty much right at average driving accuracy these Fairways are generally forgiving uh fairly wide especially for being as short of a course as is as it is and there are forc layups at Pebble Beach so the driving

Accuracy very very high 71.5% here versus 61 and some change at the average T event now greens as you would expect with these extremely small Greens Greens are not hit as often in regulation as opposed to uh the average T event and then scrambling is actually somewhat

Difficult here uh players are not as successful scrambling here as they are at the average Tour event three putts per round kind of indicative of Poa we saw just how many three putts there were at uh Tory Pines even though these are the smallest Greens on the PJ tour look

You’re you almost have a half of a three putt uh per round um three putts are generally a factor here at Pebble Beach uh and a lot a lot of that has to do with uh the PO Ana distance again Force layups extremely short course just

Distance is not a not a factor it’s just not a factor here and with the small greens if players are hitting the Green in regulation they’re going to be much closer uh in proximity to the hole 26 1/2 ft here versus 29 ft at the average

Tur event so there’s a look at Pebble Beach let’s go to spy glass Hill just very very quickly I don’t want to spend a whole lot of time on spy glass since it’s only going to be played once but I do want to want to um show you spy glass in a few

Different ways most notably the whole composition here so the par 3s are evenly spread you’ve got an extremely short par three like a Pebble Beach but you do have a very long par three 200 to 225 so one in each range there uh two drivable par 4S over at spy

Glass um let’s see if we can find them I believe this is the correct 18th hole here uh at 430 so you do have a par for 325 and you have a par 4 349 so this one’s a kind of a stretch to be to be drivable but the biggest of

Hitters can get there uh but the 325 I know is drivable so two very short par fours you’ve got um two 350 to four the majority of your holes at spy glass are from 400 to 450 two from 450 to 5 and then your par fives this is where a

Little bit of the change comes in a little bit longer than Pebble Beach three of the four par fivs fall from 550 to six and then one from 500 to 550 um again kind of mirroring Pebble Beach in regards to uh birdies and Bogies they’re somewhat

Even and quite a few doubles over at spy glass and the Eagles are just non-existent uh you can see I mean you got a decent one here 2 and 1 12% 2% but nothing you know that jumps off the page for being such an extremely short course

I do have a few birdies but there are doubles out on spy glass Hill if you are not career especially if the winds pick up uh and then the last thing we’ll take a look at just um a little bit of Statistics over at spy glass accuracy like Pebble Beach higher than the

Average T event green regulation percentage much lower just like Pebble Beach three putts per round higher uh that’s again due to the nature of Poa now the difference between spy glass and Pebble Beach players are much more successful scrambling here as they are than they are at Pebble Beach so there

Is the the biggest difference but these courses are pretty similar pretty similar in style before we go back to the page view or this week’s field let’s take a look at some scoring conditions just very very quickly at some historic uh Pebble Beach Pro AMS last year the Monterey Peninsula course

Played easy you actually see spy glass Hill played difficult along with Pebble Beach on a couple of rounds but spy glass Hill was difficult uh in 2022 Pebble Beach and spy glass were generally average and Monteray monter is generally pretty easy although Pebble also played easy somewhat in

2022 the easiest of the three courses is Monterey it’s not not in um it is not uh in use this year it is interesting to note that in 2021 the peble beach program turned into a 36hole cut um just due to all the things that were still going on

Ridiculousness going on now spy glass played difficult both rounds in 2021 pebble played um difficult in round two average in round three you see the wind kind of picked up a little bit in 2021 so you get you get a little bit of mix of everything here some easy some

Difficult so some of it depends on the wind but what you see consistently short courses were on POA obviously and then the rough length has been anywhere from short to average again with the amount of rain that they’ve had this could it could uh lend itself to being a little

Bit more difficult this week um that’s something that I’m only speculating I can’t confirm that but uh it might be a little bit more difficult this week just due to the amount of rain they’ve had in Southern California all right so now that we’ve went through the course

Breakdown in fantasy National let’s take a look at a couple of different things in here we know that off the tea just not really all that important this week so making sure that I don’t have any filters selected in the last 36 rounds our top Strokes gin approach players

Scotty Sheffer Lucas Glover Colin morawa Alex SMY Xander Sam Ryder Hadi Chris Kirk Victor hin and uh Eric Cole Aaron Ry is starred he is an alternate don’t want to overlook around the green uh definitely going to be um a pretty big portion of the tournament

This week a pretty big factor top around the green players the last 36 rounds Ricky Scotty sheffler Russell Henley McKenzie Hughes Bron Todd wendham Clark JJ spawn Matt Fitzpatrick Justin Thomas and Sh Kim then lastly you’ll have to bear with me we’re going to look at some putting I

Need to find and filter out all of the POA courses so of course we’re going to be looking at Pebble Beach we’ll be looking at uh Riviera where we will be in two weeks but it is also po Ana and of course where we were last week Tory

Pine South so let’s apply those course filters we’re going to back this time frame out to the last two years this is one change that has happened over at Fantasy National I would love to go back further I can’t that this is one of the changes that they have they have made

The furthest we can go back is 2 years so this is a very small sample size just be aware of that very small sample size only the past two years but in the past two years our best Putters on POA Ana Max H Denny McCarthy Jason Day Taylor

Montgomery Peter Mady Maverick mcney sh Kim Sam Ryder Adam shank and McKenzie Hughes so probably a decent area to look as well U for your Wagers tomorrow and some early ideas on players you might want to look at um for your DFS lineups as putting as we know on POA Anna is its

Own animal let’s just go ahead and jump straight to the tournament history here at Pebble Beach Strokes gain total tab our defending Champion is Justin r but again it’s a slight slightly with an asteris since that was a 54 day cut and a full um aim like proam portion of the of

The tournament but Justin Rose is our defending champion in the past five years we have two players really kind of four players that have separated themselves in terms of Strokes gain total that are in the field this week two have really separated themselves Nick Taylor is our Strokes gain total

Leader a previous winner in 2020 uh a T14 a T20 has had quite a bit of success here at Pebble Beach and Jason day again with his um prowess on POA Anna like he had going into last week with Tory Pines and then he just didn’t play well this past week but he’s

Also been very very good at Pebble Beach you you see three top 10 including two top fives and another top 25 uh Jordan spe very very good here Patrick Klay three for three nothing outside of a a t11 in his only three years here he’s been very good Maverick McNeely has been

Very good Tom hogi your winner in 2022 uh Max hom has been good uh in 3 years here oh hosler and Denny McCarthy Sheamus Keith Mitchell three for five Matthew nemith four for four a couple of Clunkers of made Cuts but decent um previous Champions that are here we have

Justin Rose our defending Champion Tom hogi in 2022 2021 was I would have to cheat and go to that one uh yep I’m going to have to cheat it’s escaping me Daniel Burger Daniel Burger wins in 2021 2020 Nick Taylor 2019 I believe was somebody on

Liv now I’m going to have to cheat again 2019 Phil Michelson yes Phil Nicholson’s won this twice Jordan spe has won this back in 2017 I think perhaps um so quite a bit of different play Styles but what all of those players are generally pretty good at is

Their short game particularly around the green Phil Mickelson Jordan spe uh Nick Taylor doesn’t get enough credit for how good he is generally around the green um and you see putting on POA um you see Nick Taylor’s around the green there uh now Tom hogy is a bit of

A u difference and I believe I closed that tab by a mistake Tom Hog’s a bit of a um outlier there uh as he is generally a ball Striker Justin Rose very good putter on POA so there is a look at some of the players that have performed well the

Past 5 years at Pebble Beach the other end of the spectrum players who have not played well JJ spawn one for four Grayson Murray one for four Patrick Rogers even though he’s a California guy 0 for four here at Pebble Beach Perhaps Perhaps some of that is the proam

Portion uh hard to say but for whatever reason he has not played well here um SMY one for two uh players who have actually played it somewhat uh Davis Riley one for three um ecro and vas even though they’re uh alternates one for two there’s a look at the players who have

Not played Pebble Beach well in their few attempts all right with that that’s a pretty good segue let’s go ahead and move on over to Fantasy National and we are going to first actually first let’s take a look at uh some of this research uh that Gabe is kind was kind enough to

Provide this is the kind of information you are going to be able to receive if you are a uh subscriber to his article first thing we’ll look at toughest courses last year on the PGA tour you see spy glass was actually in the top 10 in terms of difficulty it averaged

Playing over par it was you know more tough than AR than Bay Hill at least in relation to par last year uh valpar is always pretty difficult of course the Masters and the memorial but spy glass was pretty darn difficult last year you just had you just didn’t have a whole

Lot of uh um Eagles very few eagles only six over there uh and very very few birdies very very few birdies and Pebble Beach isn’t uh easy by any means either it’s you know inside the top 20 right at 20th it played to about a uh half a shot

Under par so we’re looking at you know some some mildly difficult courses but what’s also very interesting is that two of the 10 hardest holes on the PGA tour of all of the PJ tour two of the 10 hardest are at this at this tournament this week the

Afor mentioned par 9th plays to almost 410 of a shot over par I think fantasy National actually had it at 410 um just very very difficult 19 birdies versus 69 Bogies and and 17 double bogeys on that power 4 ninth just difficult very very difficult haul power

Four 400 or 504 yards hang it just off your screen power four 504 does play downhill but you have the ocean on the right very difficult um uh bunker in front of the green it’s just a tough tough hole but not to be outdone spy glass the the par 4 sixth is

Was the 10th hardest hole on the PGA tour last year also played very close to 4/10 of a shot over par so there are several opportunities to uh put up big scores and not in the good way at the tournament this week so I just thought that was interesting I wanted to to

Share that with you all that two of the 10 hardest holes on the PJ tour are here this week again this is thanks to Gabe uh and the research and information he puts together uh and you know I can’t say enough that it’s a very very good

Article it’s a very good uh read and his the information he provides is very very useful week in and week out now we move to the comparison course for Pebble Beach and again this will be skewed a little bit because we only normally get two rounds of data at pubble Beach uh

Normally it’s a 54 hole cut so you would have spy glass and montere that does not ACR shot link data so a little bit a little bit um skewed but you can see the importance of around the green at least compared to the other shot types here at pubble

Beach approach is still going to have a little bit of a factor distance does not matter at all you can see almost 40% left less than the average Tour event Fairways 20% more important I would have thought it the 20% would have been in The Greens Greens

Is still fairly high at 10% so I’m I’m quite anxious to go into the prior leader boards tomorrow figure out if Fairways is something that we want to look at or if it’s just the greens I know we’re going to be looking at some greens since these are the

Smallest Greens on tour I am a little surprised by this Fairways gain a number looking at scoring Eagles is right at average nothing here to to suggest we need to look at Eagles by themselves but look at the sheer uh volume of bogey avoidance versus Bird’s gained so at

Least you know in one nights of research it’s looking like we’re going to want to look at bogey avoidance as opposed to Bird’s gained looking at par 3es par 3s again for the top 10s were somewhat important and it says for you know players in the top 30 7% more important

Than the average full field course um those two links are carrying the most weight we’ll see uh tomorrow in the detail whether you know that’s true or not but at least in uh terms of comparing against other full field courses these two look like they’re carrying the weight Par Four little bit

Less a little bit less but with the sheer amount of 350 to 4 par fours here at Pebble Beach and spy glass I can understand why this number is showing as most U important especially when most courses don’t have 350 to Fours or if they do it’s like one or two and Pebble

And spy glass have quite a few might be a little bit misleading but it’s not leading is you just got to score like at Tory Pines last week you just got to score on these par fives these par fives are where you take advantage of Pebble Beach and spy

Glass Lots in the par fivs and again with the Bevy of 500 or very short par fives at Pebble Beach look at the um percentage there huge amounts of importance on these short par fivs very quickly proximity that’s a little bit comforting to see at least is that when we went to

The course breakdown we saw that um 100 to 125 you know was double uh in terms of you know prevalence or amount of shots taken from that range you can see it’s carrying a significant amount of weight against the others so more information we’ll have to look at

Tomorrow in the Daya dive show but there’s a look at Pebble Beach uh comparing Pebble Beach to other full field courses on the PGA tour we’ll end the show off this evening with the early look file uh this is another way of looking at that Strokes gain total tab

Or the tournament history tab in fantasy National this his performance at the Pebble Beach proam the last five years you can see Patrick kley played it three times average finish of sixth Jason day max hom have each averaged 10th Place finish MC is averaged a 13th that doesn’t count his

Withdrawal so if we remove the players who have only played it once we get we get a feel for the players who have played Pebble Beach consistently year-over-year in the past 5 years or at least played it multiple times what have they been doing well um let’s go to yeah let’s just do

The players we have averaged the top 40 uh this this is 17 guys um you see off the T 0.8 a little bit higher than what I would have thought it would have been but there’s not really a lot of high numbers here except for

Victor hin which is kind of his game you just have some solid performances you know 1.0 1.3 0.8 1.3 just a lot of okay to good performances but nothing truly spectacular approach is at a 0.7 interesting that the off the te is actually higher than the approach I

Would have not said that but at least for the players who have played Pebble Beach well and consistent consistently well a little bit more so in off the tea around the green this average probably will drop a little bit but I want you to focus up here at the extreme top 1.9 2

And 1/2 1.5 some heavy dark green up here uh at the most elite um portion of the players who have played it well this is a 0.6 I I figured it was going to fall off cuz you have couple of players that are bringing it

Down but round the green is going to be pretty significant this week and then putting this is a 1.0 you got a 2.6 couple of twos so it’s a lot in the short game a lot in the short game at Pebble Beach which is what you would expect all right

Um distance even though most of these players are positive I just don’t see distance being a big factor I really don’t um I want to look at the greens and as I thought because these greens are so very small look at all the heavy heavy green up here and the players who have

Consistently played Pebble Beach the best Patrick Canley a lot in the greens gain Maverick McNeely Nick Taylor your Strokes gain total leader leading in Greens gain so that’s a very big correlating statistic there um looking at the top 40 I mean this is a 2.6 that’s a pretty big number

And only two players are negative Brendan Todd and Denny McCarthy scoring surprisingly it looks like it’s the birdies so we’ve seen this quite a bit this year that the looks like the more consistent scoring metric was bogey avoidance this is a 2.6 this is a 2.7 so slightly leaning

The bird gain but the higher numbers are in the bird’s gain but look at that consistency in here I mean neither none of these players are negative in birdies or bogeys for what it’s worth so I I do want to take a pretty big look into that tomorrow and

Honestly we might be looking at Double bogey avoidance considering how much double bogey prevalence there is at Pebble Beach and at spy glass um par 3es look even though they diminished for the top five in your winners there’s a 1.7 only one player negative in terms of par three

Performance that’s played Pebble Beach well I think they are going to be a little bit more important than what we might think early on in our research this is a 1.7 par fors 3.2 par FS which are off your screen I know but 2.0 so what we were seeing

Statistically is being backed up par FES are are carrying quite a bit I mean nce Smith who is an alternate negative Cam Davis has been slightly negative but lots of extremely good performance on these par fives at the at Pebble Beach you can see that there kley and

Day and hom even hosler and Brenan Todd have been very good at the par fivs here at Pebble Beach don’t want to overlook par fours and especially look at that the 350 to4 par 4S all of this positive in here 450 to5 actually has all of the

Positive in here too so again this looks like some information we’ll have to dive into tomorrow in the data dive show in the prior leaderboards we’ll end off the show this this evening looking at proximity again the most prevalent range is here okay I guess you got some pretty good

Performances from day and hom and Taylor Moore and Denny McCarthy okay I guess but I’ll bring you back to um I’ll bring everybody back into the field and take give you a sorted look on average finish that’s going to do it for the show this evening thanks to James

For jumping in chat much appreciated it’s good to see you again um it’s been a little while I know you are more into The Showdown uh Arena and I’m wanting to get back into that but um schedule and and um most of these events do get

Delayed um out on the west coast so hopefully we’ll get settled into a nice routine we we’ll try to get back into The Showdown arena in the Friday night streams uh but thanks for jumping back in chat thanks to everyone else out there who Tunes in watches listens

Supports the channel by liking the videos commenting subscribing I always appreciate it love what I do taking an in-depth look at statistics giving you a statistician and data analyst’s view of what he sees um and trying to help us all win a little bit of money in the process be on

The lookout uh tomorrow for the research as I have you can see done a little bit over there and have been color coding some things and whatnot so be on the lookout for the research tomorrow over on social media and a quick note that uh the DFS tactics show will be 10:00 this

Wednesday not 9: now tomorrow the day to- dive show will still be at 9:00 but due to a scheduling conflict this is probably going to be true for the majority of February the DFS tactics show will be at 10 o’clock Eastern on Wednesday um No Way Around It Just Have

A scheduling conflict so make sure you uh make uh make a note of that put it in your reminders 10:00 on Wednesday but tomorrow we’ll be at the regular time at 9:00 p.m. thanks again for all the support for all of the Wagers you made this past week at the farmers for all

The DFS contests you played this past week at the farmers and until I see you tomorrow night for the day to dive show may all your bets be profitable