2024 Farmers Data Dive

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Hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 Farmers Insurance open data dive show got a lot to cover for you all since fantasy National has updated their site we have a lot of metrics to look at since we didn’t have a chance to last night and

Of course we are here to dig into all of the data that is relevant for Tory Pines and the farmers I want to hear from you all uh the odds came out today so did you make any Wagers who are you circling early on in your uh week of research and

Of course do you remember that the farmers is a Wednesday through Saturday event so we have one less day to get our lineups situated and optimized so we got a lot of cover T tonight or we have a lot to cover tonight let’s get into it all statistics provided tonight and

Every night are from the aforementioned fantasy national.com uh it is is the best tool out there for golf analytics they have been working on their site diligently for the past couple of weeks uh a lot of uh improvements um so if you are a golf analytics fan and want the data at your

Fingertips then go check out fantasy national.com you won’t regret it in the description to the video there are links to all of the social media first off my ex and Instagram where I posted some research earlier to today uh around the past seven winners of the Farmers

Insurance open at Tory Pines uh Tory Pines North as we talked about last night went through an an extensive renovation in 2016 so that’s why I only went back to the 2017 farmers in my research so if you want to see the weekly research I do on the PGA tour uh

And for this week uh the Farmers Insurance open in Tory Pines give me a follow at your preferred social media site uh X is also where I place my weekly betting cards and my player exposure in my DFS lineups uh so if you want to see those pieces of information

Give me a follow over there as well and then lastly for social media gabes X handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a great way to start your week of research and then throughout the week he continues to provide you information

Such as course history uh recent form all of that good stuff and if you are a subscriber to his article you’re going to be able to join him and I in his substack chat normally every Wednesday evening uh but this week with the change in the schedule uh it’ll be tomorrow

Night you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat uh as we continue the DFS talk over in his substack chat after calls calls you don’t want to miss that so the only way you’re going to be able to do that is if you’re a

Subscriber to his article and then lastly we are Live Chat is open want to hear from you all again have you you made any Wagers uh with the odds boards coming out today uh who have you focused on in your research today uh and what do

You know of Tory Pines how do you think it’s going to play all that good stuff would love to hear from you all so let’s dig into the weeds of the data for the 2024 Farmers Insurance open and we’re going to start as promised last night over at windfinder with today’s

Forecast uh it looks like uh La Hoya and Tory Pines has been pummeled just absolutely pummeled with rain lots of wind but a whole lot of rain which is going to make this course even longer than it normally plays if the course is saturated the rough is always kept long

So I can imagine that this uh week’s Farmers is going to play uh exceptionally tough and exceptionally long now the W the wind wind and the rain is supposed to clear out uh by morning tomorrow and then you know looking at Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday looks pretty calm chilly highs

In the low 60s but they have supposedly been pummeled with rain today and if that’s the case I would expect uh Tory Pines to play extremely long and even more difficult than it normally does so let’s keep that in mind as we move forward tonight and into tomorrow as we

Start to figure out who we want to focus on in our Wagers and make core in our DFS lineups so with that we’re going to move to Fantasy National and the look the first uh um look here on calls calls of the updated site for Fantasy national

Uh quite a bit of a different layout here but no worries there the uh information is still going to be there so you can see sample size of 36 rounds we are on all courses right now we are looking at just The Strokes gained page

View uh so in the last 36 rounds going back to the beginning of 2023 Uh custom date range where is that listed uh I knew I had it up here somewhere uh you’ll just have to trust me that it is um from 1123 through the American Express hey

Good evening P thanks for jumping in chat um much appreciated how has your week been uh hopefully you are ready for a shortened week um but a very fun tournament in terms of the farmers and we’ll see if we can’t get on the right track after Sam Burns uh really really

Did Us in this past week but hopefully you had a good American Express and and are ready for the farmers thanks for jumping in chat so our top off the te players in the field this week ludvick Oar Kevin U Patrick kentley Tyler Duncan Doug gim Keith Mitchell Johnny Vegas

Stephan joerger Cameron Champ and will zuris don’t mind the model rank as that is uh just kind of a default use here I’ll show you where we’re putting 25% in in all of The Strokes gained for the moment uh not weighing anything in particular we’re just

Wanting to look at uh the top 10 or top 15 or so uh in terms of these Strokes gained in the uh various metrics so don’t worry about the model rank for now uh you see I do have two more players starred of course uh Tyler McCumber had

Withdrawn last night uh before the initial research show earlier today Justin Thomas and your amateur champion from the American Express Nick Dunlap have withdrawn from the farmers so it’s important to make those notes Tyler McCumber Justin Thomas and Nick Dunlap have withdrawn from playing the farmers

This week okay so there’s a look at off the tea we’ll definitely take a look at approach here very quickly but we’re definitely going to want to take a look at some filters as we didn’t have the capability to do that last night with fantasy National updating uh their site

So our top 10 Strokes gain approach players since the beginning of 2023 Colin morawa Alex SMY Xander Sam Ryder Daniel Burger chz reevy hii Gary Woodland Aaron Ry and Eric Cole are your top 10 in terms of approach uh randomly enough the Western and this past summer

Uh buddy and I follow Nick down left for for a few yeah he I mean I was nowhere near him uh I won’t lie to the viewers uh there’s no way I was going to tell you to back an amateur in a professional event uh but he played amazingly well uh

He stood stared down Sam Burns and Justin Thomas and and beat him he just simply flat out beat them um thanks Sam Burns for double dipping in on 17 and 18 and considering I had a 30 to1 outright wager on him but I would expect a lot of

Good things to come for Nick Dunlap here in the near future uh whether he decides to turn pro or continue to play his career at Alabama but certainly has what appears to be not only the right uh demeanor but uh uh the right skill set

To play and play well on the PGA tour uh not being able to keep I would agree with that um especially with um with the fact that uh all of the major sports basketball football are getting these nil deals uh I would tend to agree with

You and that since if you win a tournament you’re you ought to be able to keep that money but that’s neither here nor there let’s uh let’s take a look at a couple of things that we weren’t able to do last night I definitely want to take a look into it

The first thing let’s take a look at scoring when it is difficult as we know that Tory Pines is traditionally difficult especially um uh especially the South course did Bez uh I don’t I don’t think so only because uh bazen hoot got the full 1.5 million that was allotted to the

Tournament winner um Christian bazon who ended up banking 1.5 million I have not heard uh of any other um scenarios or situations uh with Dunlap and the money so definitely want to look at some difficult to par scoring uh or performance here because as we look at

The historic conditions now it is not guaranteed that Tory pin South will play difficult every single round I mean you see last year Tory Pines played average a couple of rounds but what you will not see is Tory Pine South play easy that is always going to be the North Course and

For the most part Tory Pine South does play difficult certainly on the more difficult end of average if it does play average so we’re definitely going to want to look at some more difficult um scoring filters so win rounds have been difficult since the beginning of 2023 our top performers in terms of

Total performance Xander Patrick cley will zures Colin morawa maxom Justin Su Jason day Daniel Burger Justin Rose and Tony fenale are your top 10 in terms of performance when a round has been difficult relative to par we also definitely want to look at long courses uh especially looking at

Windfinder uh and seeing that Tory Pines has just been pummeled with rain today and Tory pin South is measured at over 7700 yards already I would expect Tory Pines to play extremely long this week um probably very difficult but extremely long thanks to the amount of rain they’ve received the uh received

Today I am going to have to expand this time frame if if I can remember where I did that uh let’s go two years and then adjust off of that um custom date range from 1 2022 through the American Express this past weekend and again I’m just um expanding

The time frame to get enough rounds for everybody you see not everybody has even 24 rounds most of these players have you know in the teens it’s very rare that you find Long courses or at least measured over 7,400 on the scorecard uh in uh the P or on the PGA

Tour uh you get the Masters the farmers Quail Hollow in fact let’s see if we can’t find or see which uh rounds these are so we have the Sentry Valero uh that’s a uh TBC San Antonio of course the Masters centry Farmers Arnold Palmer very long difficult course Bay Hill

Wells Fargo Quail Hollow so very few tournaments across the PGA Tour schedule that has consistently being over 7,400 yards but on those long courses your top performers on Long courses those are defined as over 7,400 yards Sam Stevens sunjay Xander Max hom Colin morawa Michael Kim Nikolai hoard

Patrick Canley Nico etaria AA batia and Harry Hall are your top performers on Long course the past couple of years so let me bring this time frame in as we’re going to go start looking at the prior leaderboards for the farmers figure out which players

We and which metrics we want to focus on this week for the farmers and which players perform the best at those metrics all right so looking at last year’s leaderboard we will highlight the top 19 just due to ties here um you have a few players off

Negative off the tea really the worst being Jimmy Walker but look at all this putting a very very important metric here in putting especially since it’s POA Ana and there’s only three courses regular courses on the PJ tour that feature POA Ana greens pure POA greens

Here Tory Pines uh Pebble Beach uh the Pebble Beach proam and Riviera the Genesis Invitational those are the three courses uh that are consistent on the PJ tour that feature po Ana greens so we’re definitely going to want to look at a lot of Po Ana uh pretty pretty even here

And we saw this in Microsoft Excel um how the around the green and the putting kind of outweighed the approaching off the tea to a small degree we’re definitely going to want to look at some of these ball striking metrics though so if we sort on each of these individual

Strokes gained metrics you see off the te was was fairly correlating other than maybe Stephan joerger here last year with a 3.3 but top 25 from Luke list top five top 10 top 10 another top 10 from John ROM your winner was quite a bit further down in Max hom but decent

Decent bit of correlation here in the off the te approach very correlating your winner LED in the category by a by a pretty significant margin win a top five a third a top five some middling finishes more top 15s and 20s so approach definitely going to be a huge

Facet this week around the green is going to have a little bit um of weight as well especially since this uh course is so long these greens are small they’re difficult to hit so you’re going to have to be pretty good around the green especially with the long rough

That is featured around Tory Pines you can see kind of like off the tea you got a little bit of correlation mixed in with some with some you know higher clunker finishes clunker have made Cuts Austin cook up here fairly high but a lot of middling finishes so around the

Green isn’t to be ignored either and of course looking at the putting your winner was a little bit further down but second top 15 a top 10 a top 10 middling the clunker from sayle know but a top five your winner top you know top 15

More top 20s putting going to be a very big factor this week again looking at two years ago when Luke list won even he putt very well and he putts well here at Tory Pines um we highlight the top 15 just due to ties again only two players

Negative in terms of putting you see really only one player severely negative in around the green that was John ROM and the off the te approach are kind of uh inter dispersed with some negatives there off the T again a little bit of a little bit of correlation but you know a

M a pretty high clunker of a made cut from Joseph bramlet Leed and off the tea he didn’t do a damn thing else well the rest of the week you know top five or you know a third from John Rama top 10 from Neeman top 20 top 10 so off the tea

Going to be just a little bit I imagine we might want to look at off the tea perhaps when it’s difficult perhaps on Long courses a couple of different ways we can look at that again Strokes get approach not to be outdone you see the level of correlation

Here runner up top 15 top 20 your winner was fourth top 10 top 10 some top 25 so lots of correlation Among The Strokes G approach round the green some cut making just like last year and Max hom win you had some cut making uh in dispersed with

Some pretty high uh or I should say pretty you know poor finishes 46 62nd 46th from down here you do have a little bit of some correlation and then the putting couple of big finishes but then top 15s top 10 third your winner so all four metrics we’re going to take a look

Look at this evening uh and then come tomorrow when the uh DFS tactics show comes out uh I’ll definitely have some some higher weights Among The Strokes gain that I think are going to be more important but we’re definitely going to look at all four strokes gain this

Evening we looked at off the tea let’s take a look at off the tea when it’s difficult when a round is difficult in those rounds your top off the tea players when around has been difficult Patrick kley Wills Al torus Keith Mitchell Luke list Taylor pendrith will Gordon Tony fow

Keegan Bradley Hayden Buckley and sunjay are your top 10 in terms of off the tea when around is difficult um I wasn’t going to look at long courses but let’s go ahead and do so uh I’ll just have to change the time frame from 11 2022 through this past

Weekend and our top off the tea players on Long courses those players are Luke list Gary Woodland will zores Keith Mitchell Patrick Canley Taylor Moore Stephan jger Max hom Davis Thompson and Tony fenale those are your top and and this is probably where I’m leaning combination

Of metric and filter as Luke list former Champion here Gary Woodland has played well here Salat Taurus has played well here hom your defending Champion Tony fow your Strokes gain total leader the past five years here at Tory Pines or at least for the farmer so a lot of the

Same players that have performed well here at least for off the tea uh combining with the look of um of long courses and that filter we took a look at Strokes skan approach don’t want to uh cover that one too heavily as we’ll just look at Strokes skan approach let’s

Take a look at um long rough as Tory Pines features some of the longest rough on the PJ tour 4 in Long uh is what it has on the gcsaa tournament fact sheets so our top around the green players in long rough uh right there in long rough top

Around the green players Ben Griffin Aaron badley Troy Merritt sh Kim Patrick Rogers Kevin shman Daniel Burger Callum Taran Jason day and minwu Lee course scaping Justin Thomas he has withdrawn there’s your top around the green players in long rough if you want to take a look at around the

Green when it’s difficult relative to par we will sort here and I’m just going to keep it at 1122 just to uh keep the time frames similar our top around the green players when around is difficult Aaron badley Matt Wallace Jason day Stephan joerger Tony fenal Hadi Josh

Teeter Patrick cley David lipsky and Bo Hustler again some more overlap here fenale Jason day is a two is a winner former winner here uh cley’s played well here Bo hosler’s played well here so there’s a look at some of the players that have uh that are very good around

The Green in long rough lastly we’re going to take a look at some putting let me uh filter out this and I’m going to be honest I don’t know how well this is going to go since fantasy National has changed its site we’re going to look for three specific courses here of course

We’re going to look for Tory Pines Tory Pines South apply that course filter we want Riviera and we want uh Pebble Beach Pebble Beach Golf Links so those three courses Pebble Beach Riviera Tory Pines these are the courses that feature POA Ana greens pure POA Ana greens and of course I’ve went

All the way back to 2019 remove this difficult to power filter all right so courses last 36 PGA Tour and and again let me just make sure I have the right time frame here 11 2019 want to go all the way back to 2019 get enough rounds for the players in the

Field this week on those three courses that are POA Anna and you see most players do have 36 rounds um be into the you know teens into the 20s for I would say the majority of players our top Putters on POA Ana Greens in the past five years

Max hom Maverick mcney Peter malady Justin Su Jason day Patrick Rogers sh Kim Michael Kim Eric Barnes Aaron badley and lonto Griffin so there’s your top performers on pure POA Ana greens going back to the the beginning of 2019 or five years it’s the furthest back I like

To go but I want to make sure I get enough rounds for everybody Max Homa your defending Champion Peter monatti has played surprisingly well here at Tory Pines despite the length that Tor Pines presents and he is not long off the tea it’s all about the putter for

Peter malat Jason day a former winner Patrick Rogers a California Native sh Kim Michael Kim another California Native uh went to school and San Diego I believe uh just outside your top 10 Xander Sam Stevens played well here last year so there’s a look at your top POA

Anna Putters in the past 5 years okay let’s bring this back into uh let’s go the last 12 months or or 11 2023 as we start to narrow in on a lot of the metrics that we want to focus on we’re going to look for uh let’s bring back all

Courses we’re going to go to the fairways and greens tab next and we’ll take a look at Fairways and greens take a look at last year’s uh leaderboard something that was surprising to me as I looked uh and did a little bit of research look at the

Distance here did not factor in too much there were quite a few players that were negative now these aren’t large negative numbers they were still pretty darn close to field average there are a lot of players that were negative I’m going to tell you this is a little bit of an

Outlier but you don’t want to completely ignore it so distance wasn’t as big of a Factor last year as you perhaps would think it was all about the greens as you see here we sort on Fairways col more Kawa that’s his game he just gained a whole lot of

Fairways not a lot of correlation Beyond him and maybe Jason day you got a clunker from kadra Justin Rose was a top 20 with a miscut from vincon very high up stward was a a high miscut hom was somewhat high in the fairways if we look at good

Drives a little bit more correlating you don’t have the Mis cut nearly as high 53rd and then top 20 top 10 third clunker and then your winner so not nearly as high but then you go into the greens this is where your correlation is top five third top 10 you know a clunker

From Nick Hardy sure top 15 winner top 10 top five I mean even top 25 top 20 right underneath them lots into the greens in regulation here which makes a lot of sense again the course is long the greens are small and they’re difficult to hit so you would think

Greens and regulation might be uh a pretty decent Factor and moving into 2022 looking at Luke List’s win this is where you’ll notice that the distance really starts to come back look at the top 15 only a couple negative in terms of distance luk Liss pretty high in distance ROM high in

Distance even Aaron Ryan Smotherman uh were high in terms of the distance good drives and greens also a decent Factor so looking at the distance your winner was a little bit higher up than Max hom was the year before miscut from Bryson but you have you have your cut making up

Here for distance but again it’s in the greens 20th 39th 3rd 2nd 6th top 20 top 20 top 10 your winner a little bit further down in the greens uh in 2022 um good drivers gain actually might have had been the leader and more so still the greens and

Then lastly just take a look at 2021 just to emphasize the fact that distance was an outlier last year other than uh your winner Patrick Reed again majority of the players were positive in terms of distance and in fact Patrick Reed was negative in terms of greens as well uh

He must have just put the Daylights out of it that year if we sort on the distance again you got a lot of your cut making Cameron Champa Miss cut fairly high but most part you got your cut making it’s in the greens top 20 top 10 top 10 top 10

Middling runner up top 10 another runner up a little bit lower so lots in the greens we’re still going to be looking at distance good drivers gained a little bit less so I’m thinking it’s more so in the green that we want to look at so let’s take a

Look at uh some driving distance um couple of different ways I guess we can look at this uh just flat out top driving distance players to start and then we’ll filter out some metrics so our top driving distance players in the field this week Cameron Champ minwu Lee Carrick higgo Taran

Taylor pendri Kevin Yu Nikolai hoard ludvic Oar Taylor Moore Keith Mitchell and Johnny Vegas we can like a look take a look at driving distance when it’s difficult and again I’m just going to keep it easy leave it at the beginning of 2023 our top driving distance players when around

Is difficult minwu Lee Vincent Norman Gary Woodland Joseph bramlet Keith Mitchell will Gordon Patrick Rogers Pearson Cy Nikolai hoard and Sh Kim and then last asley we’ll take a look at driving distance on Long courses again this is kind of where I’m leaning I think um because everyone’s going to

Have to hit driver on these on the majority of these par fours and all the par fivs since uh the course is so long so our top driving distance players on Long courses Nikolai hoard Matty Schmid Joseph bramlet Vincent Norman Gary Woodland car uh Cameron Champ will Gordon Carl

Yuan Sam Stevens and Keith Mitchell all right the only other thing we’re going to uh cover and no we’ll cover a couple more things on this uh on this page view definitely going to look at greens and I want to look at greens when it’s difficult um it’s pretty

Pretty simple combination here in the sense that uh Tory Pines is difficult the greens are going to be difficult to hit uh I expect scoring to be uh pretty pretty high this week meaning not we’re not going to get into the minus 30s like we did for the AMX we’re probably

Looking at minus you know anywhere from 11 to 14 would be my guess for the winter maybe even less with all the rain that they’ve had today so our top greens gained players when rounds are difficult Xander Colin morawa will Gordon Patrick kley Gary Woodland sep straa Millian Alo

Luk list Aaron Ry and Alex SMY there’s your top 10 greens gained when round is difficult the other thing that I want to look at let’s go ahead and take a look at scrambling scrambling is going to be important I don’t know yet if I’m going

To look at around the green or if I’m going to look at scrambling um but either way uh one of those two are going to be in the final mixed condition model so our top scramblers when a round is difficult men Lee Andrew Novak Taylor pendri sh Kim

Matt Wallace Jason Day Taylor Montgomery Eric Barnes Chad Remy and Michael Kim all right I’ll get this prepped for the scoring last night I spent a little bit of time thinking about whether we wanted to look at birdies or Bogies and it looked like the birdies gained was uh

The slightly favored metric of those two which is a little bit counterintuitive so I was really interested to come into the um prior leaderboards and see if we can’t um you know finalize or or figure out which of these two metrics we want to look at

Again looking at the top 19 only one negative in bogey avoidance couple in uh Bird’s gained looks like the higher numbers are still in the birdies gain maxom favored the bird birdies morea favored the birdies Ryder Bogies ROM Bogies it’s pretty close if we sort third 1 11th 2 7th ninth it’s pretty

Tough to beat bogey avoidance fourth second sth you know some 13th some 18ths so it looks like the birdies game slightly last year was the favored uh metric among uh birdies versus Bogies if we look at 2022 and Luke List’s win he was favoring the bogey or the

Birdies excuse me Wills Alor is much so in the Bogies birdies birdies birdies Bogies again it looks like the birdies gained 11th sixth first six 6 six 11th third bogey avoidance yeah 6 second 11th 39th I think we’re going to be looking at both of them cuz you’re definitely going to

Need to avoid some bogies pars are good scores generally speaking at Tory Pine South but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the more correlating statistic has been Bird’s gained uh at least the past couple of years so we’re going to keep the this difficult uh Rel relative to power

Filter on I just prefer matching a scoring metric like birdies like Bogies with a scoring filter easy and difficult to par so because Eagles are pretty rare here we’re just going to look at birdies gained and Bogey’s avoided when it’s difficult our top birdies gained players when rounds are difficult sahit tagala

Max hom Seth straa Jason day Justin Su Colin morawa Xander Keegan Adrien Taylor Moore and Dylan woo uh just a quick look the players that are top 10 or Honorable Men you got Max hom second and 11th second birdies 11th and Bogies Jason day fourth and first Justin s fourth and eighth morawa

6th and 18th Xander seventh and third Taylor Moore 10th and 19th Patrick cley 12th and 2nd and give probably a honorable mention of Min Le 20th and 5th if we’re just going to look at bogy our top bogey avoiders when rounds are difficult Jason day Patrick kley Xander

Hadi minwu Lee Stuart sink Michael Kim Justin Su Taylor pendrith and Justin Rose so there’s a look at your top boy avoiders when rounds are difficult again I’m probably going to have both of these in the Final Mix condition model but as of right now I’m I’m leaning slightly

Into the birdies gain considering what we saw in the prior leaderboards all right let’s take a look at proximity very very quickly if there is a range I believe it’s going to be the 200 plus I don’t think total proc is going to be a big thing but having said that looking

At last year’s leaderboard you know there are some fairly big numbers in here in the total procs uh 200 plus didn’t look like it contributed much in terms of upper leaderboard success at all it was 150 to 175 last year which seems rather odd considering the majority of approach

Shots at least at Tory Pine South is going to come from one uh from 200 plus if we sort decent amount of correlation here in total procs seventh some middlings top 25 top 20 second first this is decent this is decent in terms of total procs correlation 200 plus not a whole lot

Not a whole lot 7th 20th your winner wasn’t up here at all if we look at 2022 and proximity again surprisingly total procs has a little bit here but look at the 200 plus every single player in your top 10 in 2022 was positive from 200 plus that’s very very

Uh good to see considering a lot of approach shots come from this range if we sort get our winner was third in total procs we’ve got you know a top 25 and a middling to clunker but winner top 15 top 10 the top 15 and top 10 a little

Bit lower here total procs might have a little bit surprisingly at least to me 200 plus you got your cut making but nothing really outstanding 2021 proximity again your top 15 just due to ties only a couple negative and 200 plus not necessarily the strongest of correlation but majority of your top end

Finishers were at least positive in that range all right um we’ll take a look at both just very quickly we’ll remove the filter all right since the beginning of 2023 our top total procs players in the field this week col morwa Hadi Alex SMY Ryan Moore Michael Kim hrk

Norlander chz reevy Adams Vincent Charlie Hoffman and Gary Woodland I just now noticed that norlander doesn’t have a tea time so it’s quite possible that he is withdrawn uh a great source to check would be Rob Bolton over on Twitter as he is the one

That keeps uh keeps you up to date um with field changes I have not looked since you know roughly dinner which would have been 6:30 or 7 Eastern I haven’t looked for field changes since so it’s possible norlander out um but there’s your top 10 in terms of total

Procs if there’s a specific range I do think it’s the 200 plus your top 200 plus approach players in the field this week Charlie Hoffman Adams Vincent Luke list seah tagala Stephan joerger Justin Su Alex SMY Austin eot Cameron Champ and Harrison indicot all right let’s move quickly to

The part threes fours and fives and then we’ll start getting into uh some Tory Pine specific data in Microsoft Excel taking a look at at part r3s we saw for the winners that they’ve been pretty important and that’s not uh that is not letting us down um at least for 2023

Maxom played them extremely well uh most of the players high up on the leaderboard played the par 3 well fourth 44th first 7th 13th 20 25th you got quite a bit of par three performance here if there’s a range my guess would be the longer ranges only because that’s where the

Majority of the um length of par 3s come here come at the South course but it’s just kind of looking like total par 3s if we look at 2022 Luke lists win again he played them fairly well not the best but still fairly well only a couple players negative in par

3es little bit less correlating cuz you have a some Clunkers of make Cuts up here top 20 third second third top 10 some top 25s fairly strong fairly strong and then 2021 now Patrick Reed didn’t play them particularly well 71th and then falls off for a

Little bit but lots of top 10’s pretty high up here this just to say that the par 3es are going to carry some weight like they did for the American Express so our top par three performers in the field this week Eric Cole col Mor Kawa Justin Su Max hom Grayson Sig

Carson young Nico etaria Stewart sink Keegan and Xander are your top 10 in terms of par three performance looking into par fours the majority of the par fors especially on the south course measure 450 to 5 six of the 10 we see that they were fairly important especially for Max homa’s

Win uh the yeah 9.3 yeah he led in that category of 450 to5 pretty darn strong correlation too other than Austin cook you got a middling finish from Dean bermas but a lot of elite finishes around him fourth 13th runner up top 15s top fives top 10

Lots of correlation here on the 450 to5 and in the just par fours in general because these are some of the hardest par fours on the PGA tour looking at 2022 not necessarily as high in the numbers but again look at Luke list probably led in the 450 to5 yeah or

Close to it 11th and then first 6th middling 6th 11 20th 2nd 11 16th very strong very strong and then I’ll just show you 2021 just very very quickly par fors Patrick Reed again probably not the or tied for the best okay so 450 to 500 three the past three

Years the winner of the tournament was the leader or second in performance at 450 to 500 yard par fours a big factor so let me set this and get ready for the par fives our top performers on par fours 450 to 500 yards in the field this

Week in the past calendar year Xander Ryan Fox seah tagala Patrick kley Taylor pendrith Bo Hustler Eric colei Johnny Vegas and ludvig oar there’s your top 10 performers 450 to 500 yard par fours par fives again going to be very very important two measured to this length on the scorecard and two measure

Here on the scorecard 4.8 5.8 yeah lots of correlation at the very top third 37th ninth first second fourth Lots there um pretty balanced for maxom but it looks like the majority of the players were a little bit better in the 550 to 600 2022 par

Fives a little bit less so for Luke list but I mean still 66 11th third six luk list just a little bit further down here 2021 par fivs yeah Patrick Reed this is where he really played well and it was in the 550 to 600

Um 10th oh my gosh 10th 18th 2nd 1st 2nd 7th 16th 18th so far FS are going to have have quite a bit here in terms of of weight my guess would be 550 to 600 so we’ll take a look at both but your top power five performers in the

Field this week Aaron Ry minw Lee Doug gim Harrison indicot sunj Stephan joerger Lee Hodges KH Lee Johnny Vegas and JJ spawn my guess is it’s the 550 to 600 but I we’ll be able to double check that here shortly when we go into Microsoft Excel your top power five performers

From 550 to 600 Lee Hodes Stephan jger Aaron Ry Colin morala Davis Thompson Keegan Bradley Ben Griffin Doug gim Harrison indicot and M Hughes but I’m thinking more so just par fives all right with that let’s go to Microsoft Excel uh and take a look

At the Tory Pine South course in a very very detailed view so you can see looking at the past 5 years The Strokes gained per shot type the leader is actually putting we saw in 2022 luk List’s year is a pretty low outlier you remove that outlier you know the putting is starting

To kind of distance itself from the approach as the most important shot type so we’re going to have a lot to look at in putting in our mixed condition model around the green has steadily been getting more important and this is a pretty low out lier you remove

That um around the green overtakes off the te off the te has been very consistent but not um heavy in terms of The Strokes gain total so we’re definitely going to be looking at all four in our mixed condition model putting looking like it’s going to be

The most we’re definitely going to look an approach considering how much the approach led to high L High end uh leaderboard success on those prior leaderboards we’ll have a little bit off the tea we’ll have a little bit around the green as well moving to uh distance Fairways greens you see

Again as I was mentioning last year distance that was a little bit of an outlier it was a it was a low outlier meaning it was one of the years that it didn’t matter as much the rest of these years it’s been pretty consistent a pretty uh important factor

Uh into the double digits uh you think of somewhere like Phoenix and Genesis Arnold Palmer places that distance kind of matter and the farmers is right there with it it’s right there with it so we’re we’re definitely going to want to look Target the bombers you got to need

You need some distance generally speaking to play well it’s not absolutely mandatory C Peter malady but speaking the distance the players with distance have a pretty big Advantage here considering uh this course is so darn long looking at good drives uh it’s gotten steadily more important throughout the years but the greens here

The greens is where it’s at um you got a decently High outlier here but a huge anomaly of of a low outlier there it runs to 3.37 which is you know almost as much as Pebble Beach where I think we might be next week or maybe in two

Weeks um and those greens are some of the smallest on tour and then you see how important the greens and regulation are for them so we’re going to be looking at quite a bit in terms of greens gained this week for the farmers these greens are small they’re difficult

To hit so in this page view we’re looking at distance we’re looking at greens looking into the scoring again birdies and bogeys uh the birdies surprisingly have gotten a little bit less um important throughout the years they’ve declined in importance uh the Bogies voided are just kind of everywhere um pretty

Volatile so again I’m probably looking at Birdie’s gained I think I’ll have both but I’m looking at Bird’s gained all right but the real um benefit of looking at these uh very detailed metrics especially for the pars threes fours and fives so we’ll be able to get a sense of

If there is a specific range that matters the most at a particular course we look at the par 3es very important a 1.5 um pretty darn important uh it was 1.8 last week at the AMX and we know how much we put emphasis into the part 3s

Last week so going to have you know quite a bit this week for the farmers but taking a look at the specific links like uh 200 225 is the most important but it’s only attributing a third in terms of the total uh Strokes gained for par 3s that’s just not enough so we’re

Going to be looking at total par 3s there’s not a specific spefic range here as you can see that are that’s contributing to the majority of the of The Strokes gained in the par 3s so we’re going to be looking at total par 3s looking at par fours much different

Story a 4.2 you know doing a little bit of rounding almost or actually more a little bit more than half of that is in the 450 to 5 a little more than half so while it’s probably correct to look at at all par fours cuz uh you do

Have a little bit in each of these probably going to single out the 450 to FS by themselves um and take a look at the 450 to 5S a little bit uh by themselves considering half come into this range but I don’t think it’s I don’t think

It’s correct to look at only this length of par 4 because you still have a decent amount in the 400 to 450 and you have you know you still have a shorter par 4 you have a long par 4 at Tory Pine South not to mention the north course not to

Mention the North Course so we’re probably looking at 450 to5 by itself and total par fours and then finally par fives uh yeah I mean in fact the 500 to 550 is the highest in The Strokes gain there are no par fives that measured to this length at Tory Pine

South so we’re looking at just total par fives now we have a low outlier and a high outlier so kind of cancel each other out 2.3 versus a 1.5 so the par FES are going to carry a little bit more weight than the par 3s or they have in the past

Five years so we’re going to put a little bit more weight in the par fivs come tomorrow night in the mixed condition model all right so there’s a look at Tory Pines and a detailed view looking at the specific shot types pars threes fours and fives let me bring up last year’s mixed

Condition model and see how we fared last year and see what we need to um do better at so to bringing up last year’s mixed condition model for the farmers pretty good at least in terms of results looking at the top 20 here three players missed the cut one two

Three that’s pretty good I I usually try to look for four to five you know about 20 to 25% of my top 20 missed the cut we got only three um this is pretty solid I feel Keegan was was 11th runner up a 7%

Seah top five right at 20th in my in my rankings I’m really happy with this now granted you had a lot of of um popular plays up here that performed well some some plays are just good even like morawa 10 a half% finished third I’m really happy this is probably one of the

Better results um based mixed condition models I’ve had in quite a while so what did I look at well apparently I looked at everything I had all of the all of the metrics all of them so I had nothing that was 15% everything was 10 or 5% around the green bogey

Avoidance greens makes sense scrambling so a lot in you know this kind of around the green I had 10% in bogey avoidance 10% in Greens when it’s difficult exact essentially the exact same metric and filter combination I’m thinking I did have 10% and 200 plus that makes a lot of sense 10% in

Power fives only 5% % on approach I think that’s a mistake that probably needs to go to 10% I only have 5% putting that’s definitely a mistake I’m definitely going to put 10% here but I’m also um going to be changing the filter now that we can uh isolate the exact

Courses we want I was just looking at fast and lightning po we’re going to look at the courses Tor Pine South um Pebble Beach and Riviera fire 5% birdies are better gained 5% driving distance sorry right off your screen 5% birdies are better gained on Long courses 5% driving

Distance 5% par 3es fours again separated out the 450 to 5 par fours I’m sorry I’m still battling that scratch and then lastly I had three putt avoidance at 5% I’m definitely going to have that as well in the mixed condition Model S I mean we looked at 14 different metrics last

Year kind of it’s kind of hard to argue with the results here that’s that’s a lot of metrics to look at but kind of hard to to argue with the results all right if we sort on the results you know Homa line one and Bradley how predictive were these so

Uh we’ll go down to say the top 24 here gosh dang it I just wanted this we’ll go down to Justina I guess yeah so anybody who finish in the top 24 how predictive were these the lower the number the better well some of them were really

Good and some of them were really bad um sorry let me set this so that way it doesn’t move on us so around the green 63 not the greatest bogey now greens were a little bit better scrambling not necessarily as much look how poor the

200 plus 74 that’s one of the worst ones I’ve seen in a while so that’s probably a metric we can get rid of wasn’t the most predictive par FIV the approach was pretty good A 54 but then we’re starting to get into a lot of very good metrics

Here look at the putting a 47 the birdies are better gain a 47 distance was only a 50 power fours were a 53 the specific length of power Forge a 48 three put avoidance was a 37 it’s very strong so definitely going to need to do do uh put a lot more emphasis

Into the putting I feel but overall I mean again just very hard to ignore the results of this mix condition model considering only three of the 20 missed three of my top 20 missed the cut I had the winner up here several top tins even some of my unique plays Keegan Bradley see

Tagala um hadwin not maybe not as much turned out good turned out well so we’re going to be we’re going to be mimicking a lot of this mixed condition model I feel come tomorrow um when the DFS tactic show rolls around around so now that we have looked through some prior

Leaderboards looked at some very very detailed data of Tory Pines let’s get a feel for the players who have performed well in those metrics specifically at Tory Pines so we’re definitely going to be looking at approach so the players who have uh who have hit uh their irons the best here at

Tory Pines the past five years sahala col Mor Kawa there’s our defending Champion Max hom Keegan Z Torres has been good rose former Champion here Justin Thomas Tony Fen now onto Griffin three for four Robbie Shelton three for three Luke list Champion two years ago Woodland Hadi don’t want to overlook the putting

By any means so our top Putters at Tory Pines the past five years uh see only one time only one time Justin Su two for three there’s Xander Jay day will Gordon snaker two-time winner way back but two-time winner here M McNeely three for four pend sta Taylor Montgomery Adam shank three

For four malady three for four maxom three for four sunjay morawa even Doug gim is positive here so take that for what you will Doug gim normally very poor putter he’s positive here all right uh I’m going to skip the the driving distance let’s just go to Greens so the players

Who have gained the most greens the past five years morawa Ry Taylor Moore SMY there’s Luke list zalot torus bramlet four for four Sam Ryder three for five uh Hardy only one for three lonto Griffin Tony fow sunjay Kevin U only one for two will Gordon Max hom Justin Rose uh

I’m going to skip the uh we’ll skip the scoring I do want to look at the par threes fives fours all that so top par three performers at at Tory Pines sunj Justin s Max Homa morawa Rose tagala Keegan Low’s 0 for two but he’s played the par 3es well Martin

Lard Hoffman little less oh hosler only two for five he’s been really bad at the par fives Hadi Taylor Montgomery Stallings all right uh let’s go to 450 to 500 par fors uh Stevens only one time horel Billy horel three for four there’s Justin Thomas who’s not playing I need

To remove him apologies haven’t updated this file since Sunday um Hub there’s Luke list and Max hom Justin Rose Daniel burer one for two Nick Hardy only one for three W will Gordon Xander Keegan Salat torus Woodland Shelton F now all right last one take a look at par fives

Your top power five performers past five years specifically at Tory Pines Aaron Ry two for two uh lonto Griffin there’s moraa and Max hom Montgomery SE tala sunj J day Tony fenale Rose Woodland hii look at all these Elite you know average finish es and their par five performance so definitely

Probably need to increase the par five weight from last year’s mixed condition Model A little bit further down Wills Al torus and Luke list s only two for three there’s malady he’s played the par fives very well for somebody who doesn’t have a lot of distance par

Fives um Vegas three for five Robbie Shelton McKenzie Hughes played them well but only one for four all righty I’ll Resort this on best average finish and that’s going to be the show this evening again apologies that uh still dealing with the uh with the scratchy throat try not

To cough all over you all or in your all’s ear but such as life I want to be able to give you all the information uh so you’re going to just have to to deal with me drinking a lot of more water and and whatnot hopefully it’s it’s not too

Unbearable thanks to P for jumping in chat really appreciate it thanks to everyone else out there who Tunes in watches listens and supports the channel I liking the videos commenting subscribing really appreciate it a quick reminder that because the farmers is a Wednesday to Saturday event we will be

Live tomorrow night 900 p.m. Eastern for the DFS tactics show so tomorrow night will be the DFS tactics show you have one less day to get your lineups in for the farmers so we’ll be live tomorrow night uh for all your lineup questions your top pivots the best fades and all

That stuff um but thanks for supporting the channel love what I do uh giving an in-depth look at sports statistics giving you an a stat statistician a data analyst view of some in-depth material and trying to help us all win a little bit of money in the process uh it’s been

A very good start to the year even though Sam Burns didn’t come through for us uh we’ve already hit one outright uh at the century uh SE Shaka in the top European it was a very very successful DFS last week we’re going to try to continue the positive momentum this week for the

Farmers uh so make sure you set your reminders for the DFS tactic show tomorrow night for all the Wagers you’ve made some so far this week for the farmers for all the Wagers you’re thinking about making this week for the farmers and until I see you tomorrow

Night for the DFS tactics show may all your bets be profitable