All right we’re live tapping birdie Farmers Insurance open got my good friend Ian first time on uh it’s been a long time coming I apologize for the delay but I’m glad we could could talk some golf tonight yeah thanks for having me on Brian this is this is a dream come
True i’ I’ve been pleading I’ve been begging to uh make an appearance on the tap in birdie I’m finally here it’s a big week I’m very nervous uh I’m excited to talk Farmers Insurance open though this is this is a big night for me I’ve been waiting to make an appearance on
This on this show yeah no I I it has been a long time coming um you I think you’re just like so much of an expert in so many different sports that like it’s hard for me to like see you as a true golf guy because like you’re just so
Good at betting on every single sport like it doesn’t matter if it’s like Portuguese soccer or like Taiwan pingpong like you just you kind of got it all covered yeah I I would say maybe that is the issue I I I feel like I’m not quite part
Of the golf betting community and and maybe that’s what it is maybe I just bet on on too many things and that’s kind of uh keep me from kind of getting in the door but hey maybe maybe me making appearance on the show is now going to
Like be you know an entrance for me into the golf betting to like you should be like in with the boys like if you hit Brian Harmon at the Open Championship like you should be in and like in with golf Twitter so I’m not really sure you
Know where the disconnect is there yeah it’s I’ve been trying to crack into golf Twitter for a couple years it it’s been tough uh a couple long shots didn’t didn’t kind of get me over the edge but I I think this might be it I think making my appearance on tap and birdie
Is I think I’m might be officially part of golf Twitter starting now yeah so if people don’t know Ian is a senior editor at bsid it he has you know dream job legit just writes about sports betting and Bets all day like what we all wish
Um we can do but he like I’ve you know alluded to he’s a man of many talents he bets on every single NFL game during the season so I want to start out with that what is your all-time record since you’ve been doing that because in my opinion it’s one of the most
Impressive um Feats I’ve seen on on gambling Twitter yeah give me a second I can bring it up here and I I I do have to note I I’m not a professional better so my Strat cuz I mean professional betters are not going to bet on on all
272 NFL games uh that would be stupid um my view on betting especially betting on the NFL I think golf to be fair is to just make it more entertaining and if at the end of the day if you can finish even and not lose money uh then you’re winning I like to
Say you’re not losing you’re winning yeah but you you are up like a decent amount of units like for the past three years since you’ve done it right yes I was pretty much just trying to filibuster until I could bring up my record and I have it here now so through
Four seasons of the NFL of betting on every single game I’m 549 53 and 20 for plus 22.9 units so I mean that’s that’s not huge I mean it is it’s up though I’ll take it yeah I mean genuinely if I bet on every single NFL
Game for four years I would be down so much money like genuinely like I can’t even pick three or four games right and obviously if you act like are true Gambler you would only bet on things that you have an edge on right um so has
That have you like if you don’t have a read on a specific game do are there any like overall betting strategies that you’ve learned over the past four years like you lean towards the underdog or like lean towards the over or like lean towards the sharper side like are there
Any holistic strategies that you’ve learned over the past past four years in terms of uh trying to make a bet on a game where I I don’t think I have an edge uh generally I’ll just take the team getting points or sometimes I’ll just say screw it and just take the over
Because that’s probably the most fun type of bet to place is rooting for points but but no generally uh my advice to people is if you don’t think you have an edge on a game or on any type of bet probably just don’t bet it um yeah don’t
Just me over like I do but that’s generally what I do is I’ll just say screw it let’s take the over and root for points yeah so I we we’ll talk some NFL lat I we we’ll save it for NFL later there was something I want to bring up
But we’ll save her for um NFL later but you do put out your outright card every week you pick a couple guys in your tic Cole like what is your golf process like like are you you know what what do you like to bet in golf and uh H how do you
Kind of land on your guys a lot of the time yeah generally I’ve been betting on golf for a number of years now so I at least the the Classic Events like that like this week’s event and you know the ones that are at the same courses every
Single year I kind of know what types of golfers I’m going to be looking for so it’s just a process of uh what what what golfer fits that mold and then the basic things that everyone should be looking at uh course history in recent form uh
And then just try to find where the value is at I don’t think I do anything necessarily unique I will say one thing that I do like to do um is I do love placing uh round by round three ball bets uh bets on golfers to win their
Group that day uh you can get hot and cold in that you can lose a lot of money in a hurry doing that but that is electric it makes kind of Thursdays Fridays and Saturdays because you have action on every single group like you always got something to track something
To tilt um I I like that with first round leader bets but those you only get a sweat you know every once in a while um but actually Ian was truly my introduction to golf betting this is 100% legit the first event back was the Charles Schwab
After the pandemic it was the only thing you could bet on and you used to work for odd shark yep and you put out a video and you’re like yeah I like Daniel Berger Daniel Burger this week and I bet him like top 10 top 20 I didn’t bet him
Out right um because you only said to bet him top 10 top 20 you did not say put the mortgage on him outright at 8 to1 which you should have I don’t know what you were kind of thinking back then but I remember I probably wasn’t like
100 200 bucks and it was genuinely the greatest thing ever and I’ve been hooked everything so I want to thank you for your Daniel Berger shout um at the colonial in 2020 yeah I think I I I did personally bet it outright probably when I gave out the
Pick I probably did just say top 10 or top 20 back then and even probably as recent as last year I I did a lot more just gave old picks for top 10 top 20 um especially early when I was on at odd shark and I was trying to be a
Profession a professional better now I just give names of guys and I just bet them outright and then I let the people decide how they want to bet it if like if I give a long shot and you just want to do top 20 go ahead but I’m going to
Give out three golfers and I’m I’m going to bet them out right myself because I’m chasing that high of a big win um and that’s more fun it’s more fun to hit a big bet than it is just to hit like a top 20 of plus 120 no I you know I 100%
A million per agree I was actually on Twitter was in a thread where people were we talking about it like if I have $500 to wager on a golf tournament I would rather do bet that where I could seven exit and win thousands of dollars versus betting it on top 20s and
Matchups where you could maybe two or three exit if you’re betting like longer shot top pick and if I were to lose that you know initial investment I would rather do it on something that could sustain it for multiple um weeks I I don’t think it maybe as the most
Sustainable you know golf strategy if you want to like build a bank roll and betting on golf but it’s definitely the most fun and it’s a small investment to Wi a lot of money and that’s what makes outright betting um so great yeah and
All you have to do is hit a couple oat rates and then you just want to chase that high again because there’s nothing better than hitting a golf oat rate no there there is nothing and I personally wouldn’t know uh this year three straight kind of heartbreaks like the
Gala he charged on Sunday like he shouldn’t have really won like that wasn’t really as heartbreaking but it was still close and then Ben on that was pretty bad with the Miss for fooo and Grayson making a 40 footer and then I had Sam Burns last week and he played
Pretty well I mean he played pretty well on Sunday he was Drilling putts and he just didn’t birdie two par fives and that didn’t really put him in the best position with the final two holes like he was only tied with um Nick Dunlap you
Know I think it would have been a lot worse and a lot more painful if he had a one or two stroke lead and put it in the water there then that would have hurt a lot more but the fact that he easily could have lost going parar um in
Regulation that maybe would have gotten him to a playoff like it makes it a little bit better but you know the thing about go fighting is that there were many weeks last year where I literally did not have a single sweat like no one even remotely In Contention so I’m at
Least I would rather have a sweat and lose than just have terrible um bets all week so you know as I said many time before the process is good the process is processing it doesn’t matter if you lose the BET as long as the process was
Good that is truly all that matters so I’m happy to report um the process is is firing um process you just got to trust the process but it truly is unbelievable the Run of winners that we’ve had um on the PGA tour to to start the year I know
That the AMX has produced a lot of long shot winners in the past but for the guy to win that to win an event where no amateur has won since 1991 and he’s a top 10 golfer of all time in a six-time major champ I mean it’s truly incredible how good these
College kids are I mean when you were 20 years old when we were 20 years old in college could you imagine winning a professional golf tournament I mean it’s just unbelievable what these kids are up to yeah no I mean at 20 years old I didn’t even swung a golf club before so
Uh uh no um I would say it is interesting the start of the year with with each of the long shots kind of winning because I think they each of them kind of tell a little bit of a different story I I think Chris Kirk is
Kind of a guy that we know when he plays his best golf he can compete with uh the best golfers in the world and that’s kind of what we saw in the first event the second event with Grace and Murray I think that just kind of shows that in
These kind of weak field events truly anybody could win but then like you said in this most recent one uh with with the amateur I think that just shows how good the Young prop of golfers are coming up um for an amateur to win and win and a
Field that has some good golfers in it like you had the number one ranked golfer in the world in the field uh you had JT you had Sam Burns it wasn’t like he he won some bum event uh in Bermuda or something like this guy won a big
Event and that just goes to show how strong this field of golfers that are like 18920 right now are coming up cuz he he’s not even the number one ranked amateur in the world I think he’s ranked number three so yeah no I mean he won like the US amateur he’s definitely a
Highly renowned one but if you ask people in golf circles like Nick Dunlap yeah he’s probably like a top you know three or five guy but he’s not like the guy um right it’s not like he’s like the next coming of Tiger Woods and everyone was saying watch over for this guy yeah
No so it’s it’s just absolutely Wild start um to the year and even when the PGA Tour was a lot weaker we’ve never really had three winners like that to um to start the but yeah I mean Dunlap played unbelievable truly um just a really really good wedge player
He was just sticking all his wedges birdie and the power fives like he was really impressive and honestly I know um people were like making fun of me about it on Twitter it makes zero sense to me why he does not get the Winner’s check like I understand he’s an amateur but
You invite him in the field to compete against the best players in the world and you know all these college kids are making all this money with nil like what is more ethical for a college kid to make a bunch of money winning and beating a bunch of professional golfers
Or some brand sponsoring you like I don’t understand how you could have one without the other it it makes no sense to me how he did not get the Winner’s check like I I truly it it upsets me if he got the Winner’s check then by definition he wouldn’t be an amateur
Anymore though I understand that but I think in golf if you get this sponsor exemption and everything like it makes it different like if college kids can make money in nil like I think that they should make money playing the sport and golf’s a very like unique
Sport and I think it like other sports is different like I don’t know if you’re an amateur baseball player or hockey player how you could ever like win money um playing your sport but I think Gish is in a unique spot and I’m just worried about his financial future a little bit
I think he’s gonna be fine financially I think sponsorship deals he’s going to get from that win are going to more than cover the money that that he didn’t get in the Winter’s check well he’s going to live I don’t know if people saw he’s
He’s he’s on live already um is that are you just saying that or is that I’m I’m messing around but Rah Taylor gu and Phil all tweeted at him and tweeted about him which I thought was a little odd um well Phil makes sense because Phil was a lot
Win but for those two and then I saw that his agent is the same agent as a bunch of live guys because it came out that a lot of people from the same agency went to live like they must have had you know similar interests and everything so that’s just a space to
Monitor um he might be on the Fireballs in in 2028 like it’s a true who could say um situation so shout out Nick Dunlap [ __ ] you Sam burns like you like you win five PGA Tour events like just win and that’s that’s that what’s that’s
What pissed me off is that Ben on he’s never won before he’s a loser in my opinion um but s bird is like a winner like he knows how to close golf tournament so that was I’m shocked he didn’t I’m shocked Sam Burns didn’t win that heading into the final round yeah
That was that was tough one um farmers and Sharon openen this week Tory Pines yep um had some really good winners here um I think this is the event that people really start to to care about the golf season um it’s of course people know uh
It’s a decent field it’s on CBS um I really like the move to make it Wednesday through um Saturday I know you got um a lot going up but like the average casual fan they’re not going to watch the Sony or the americ Express or even the farmers over NFL football and
That’s what the the PGA Tour has going for them is that the majority of the season is without the football season but I really like this move and I’m I’m sure that it it’s been beneficial to the tournament no I love this move I mean even this past Sunday uh I wasn’t going
To watch uh the kind of the last couple holes of the tournament um because I was watching NFL I ended up switching over to watch the last hole just because it’s history with Dunlap winning but um yeah I like this movie is this is this a this
Isn’t a brand new movie no I think it’s been past two years yeah it makes sense cu is Championship Sunday so like no matter what happens uh I’m not going to be watching golf if it’s on Sunday so yeah it’s a smart move and also I mean
We get to watch golf earlier in the week it does screw up kind of my handicapping process people don’t know why we usually do this show on Tuesdays right yeah it’s Tuesday night show like I have a little bit more time to digest but we got to
Rip it money we got to get the views man like but but it really makes no sense like if I put it out on Tuesday night like you’re like you’re not going to listen just yeah I mean I was doing my handicapping process today and I I used
Data golf quite a bit and they just didn’t have like their pre-tournament stuff up yet cuz I usually do my handicapping on Tuesday but I had to do today it’s up now but when I was writing my article earlier today it wasn’t up and it threw me for a loop yeah I it’s
Tough for me you know working a real job unlike you I know you have a real job but like I’m just really jealous of you like to just two days of work with gon it’s it’s manageable but three days it’s tough like you know Friday potentially
Like guy in the mix like that’s you know that’s weekend guy I’m not I’m not I’m not supposed to be sitting at a desk like working and sending emails and stuff when you know I got a guy in the mix on on Sunday so I’m glad it’s at
Least later um in the day but um yeah I’m excited for this week honestly I don’t love the odds board I I don’t think that it’s you know a super attractive odds board and it’s it’s a little upsetting um to me but I think that there are clearly four golfers that
Are above everyone else um in this field Xander chafl Klay morawa and H I think they all have you know very similar chances to win I think they’re all very similar um caliber of player um you betting any of these guys who do you like out of these four like if you had
To if you had to rank him yeah there is one guy I’m going to be betting on now correct me if I’m wrong though Bri you you don’t like taking Guys near the top of the oddsboard to you I feel like you’re always like at least over the top
Five I usually don’t because normally you know in a field like there’s a lot more attractive options down the board like I very rarely bet a guy under 20 to one just because it makes the other outrights you know a lot shorter yeah uh but this week is one
Where I will be better at the top of the board because I don’t really see a lot of value um down the board and I think one of these for is is going to win this week uh interesting okay so we’re going to change things up from the long shot
This week you think you think a top dog wins it this week dude if someone random wins this event like I might have to like start handicapping another sport I mean it has started to mess with my mind a bit so I do have a we were I know we
Were texting mod earli today I have a crazy long shot but I’ll start with the top of the board because I am betting one of the top guys here I’m going to go Mory CA I got him at 12 to one um okay I just think he plays well in
California he has a decent history here two uh in the top five two of the last three years that he’s competed at it uh was T5 of the century um his approach play seems to be dialed in uh gained a ton of Strokes on the field off the te
And with his uh uh with his approach play at Sentry obviously the issue with morawa if he can hit a putt um that is the frustrating part of betting on moric Kawa um but I of the top dogs he’s kind of the one I’m eying usually this would
Be a spot where I’d back Xander uh yeah you like Xander you’re a Xander guy not anymore I’m off Xander I didn’t like I didn’t I didn’t like the Ryder Cup situation I didn’t like how like he was being whiny like Klay saying those guys should be getting paid who
Was it his dad that was like making a big stink about it I’m off Xander I was a Xander guy for five years I’d like to make the announcement on this show I’m no longer Xander guy I’m off Xander I will never bet on him ever again I’ll
Never cheer for him I hate him wow wow this would normally be a spot at Hammer Xander Xander was my guy it was my guy for five years well maybe that will be like a profitable change for you like well certainly betting on him wasn’t Pro
Possible I’ll tell you that so hope I think I think with Xander at N9 to one like I’m just out like I’m not gonna bet him at those odds at a course that should be perfect for him but he hasn’t excelled that he just hasn’t been unbelievable here and he has the local
Ties but I’m just out on him klyy no absolutely not no he did you know he shot like plus four on Sunday at the AMX like every single person going ballistic underpar kly top 10 player in the world um nope he he shot four overpow so that
Really SED me on him I like Colin I probably am betting Colin I thought you were gonna say Max no I I really do like Max as well but my thing with Colin is that I really think that win in Zozo um makes him a lot more likely to have a
Really big season where he wins two times you know he was on a very long winless drought after he won the Open Championship and when you’re that caliber of player and you have two major championships at however old you are like you’re expected to win a lot more
And you know winning events is very random but I think that instilled a lot of confidence in him um you know knowing that he could win again and I really think he’s going to win two times on the PGA tour um this season I don’t think
That’s like a crazy bow take but usually you don’t win two times on the PJ tour but this is a place that he just hits the ball really really well at and last year he was flagging everything and he missed a lot of shorts putt so Ian I’m
Just letting you know he is going to stick it to um six feet all day and miss a ton of them but I like betting him here versus a place like caloa I know he’s been excellent there but the pace you have to go on with Bird’s there I just don’t think he
Can sustain and I think he can easily get to minus 13 minus 14 with his ball striking and um I know it’s early in the week but um there’s been a ton of rain in San Diego um like the cour is soaked the area is soaked there’s like flood advisory
Warnings and that’s going to make the course play a lot longer but my read on it is that I because it’s two course rotation I would prefer guys that start on the North course because the North Course is 500 yards shorter and it’s a lot easier Y and obviously Wednesday that’s when the
Courses are going to be most soaked but they’re going to dry up so there’s good weather so South on Wednesday is going to be really really tough and I think it’s going to be tough to shoot in underpar round there so Collins starts on the North so I think that’s going to
Be a big um Advantage this week and I really think that the winner will and the winner usually does start on the North course I think this week 100% winner is starting on the North course that’s a great point I like that uh I like that uh line of thinking um I would
Say usually I would have a concern about morawa with his lack of driving distance cuz this obviously is a course that you have to be a little bit long um but just because he’s had success here it’s kind of like proven that that he can play I
Mean Patrick Reed was another guy right I believe he won yeah he did yeah he’s another guy not a long driver but some guys they’re just good enough around the greens good enough with their long irons uh that they can make up for a lack of
Distance so yeah um like if Mor H didn’t have the course history that he that he does I’d probably stay off him for that reason yeah I think I think he’s really good here just because he h so many six seven irons and he’s just like unbelievable with those clubs so um I’m
Completely out on ludvig this week big fade on ludvig I think that he’s I just don’t think this is the spot for him I know he’s at a decent number but I’m out I think I think L Vic will struggle this week I personally would be
Very surprised if he finishes in the top 15 20 this week I’m I’m out on L here yeah lvg is like last year this year’s version of Tom Kim last year where like he was like the hot name in in the in the fall swing he won a couple events
And then he’s just overvalued in the first few events of 2024 just like Tom Kim was the first few events of 2023 so until his price comes back to a reasonable spot which is going to take I think a few weeks if not a couple months
Then I’m just I can’t even look at lvic yeah um anyone you like in this kind of mwo jday fena Keegan theala range I know those are pretty some of those guys I think a decent amount these guys are pretty popular this week because I think
There’s good cases for all of them do you like any of uh these guys from 25 to 33 uh I’m not betting on anyone in that range my next one is 50 to1 but if I was point at one guy it’s a guy who I am
Going to ride a lot this season I think it’s a guy I was on last week uh minwu lee okay um but now I I I do think he’s just I don’t think the Price Is Right this I don’t know what he’s done to prove that he should be this priz and I
Think he’s had some decent results like I will give him him that but my thing with Min wo is that he is a terrible iron player like he truly has events where he loses three four strokes and you don’t see that a lot with professional golfers and some coures you
Get away with it and I know Reed and Lehman have won here I just don’t think he is a good enough iron player to contend here like you’re just faced with so many difficult iron shots um so many long iron shots like I think that he
Could just put his way and Chip his way around this guy of course and this price is terrible it’s truly terrible day he got his win last year he [ __ ] here he’s amazing here but I’m out big tone he’s great here but I just I just
Don’t he just been very lacking since he won Mexico like he is truly not a single result put it lightly he has he has what one top 10 since then well where was it do you see it Hero World Challenge he T that doesn’t even count I don’t think
That counts that doesn’t count he hasn’t had oh no so he finished t7 at the 3M open in July that doesn’t count it’s the the smallest stick event like there were like three players in the field but yeah no I I I know his course history here is
Great I’m just kind of out like I just don’t think he’s playing good enough FES I’m very out on I know he finished well last year but I just worry about the driver Keegan’s interesting to me you have any thoughts on Keegan no is interesting uh was he what did he finish
Second last year here yeah he did yeah and he finished second uh two weeks ago so there you go good form good history I I do like Keegan not a guy I think I’m G to bet on but I could be convinced but
Right now no but I do like him yeah I I think Keegan’s very motivated to win like everybody is and this is a golf course he’s just played really well at and you know I think Sony’s a bit of a different test but you know I have zero
Doubts about him Cole I think is no one’s betting him he’s a bad course fit and I I’m just I’m just out on Cole for right now Shaka English zal any of these DP guys who’s your guy 50 uh my guy 50 is a guy who I’m now
Obligated to bet on every single year at this event um because I interviewed him two years ago he said Tory Pines is favorite course and the course that he thinks fits his style of play the best and that’s will zator 50 to1 um um obviously a big issue him coming off the
Injury he played abysmal up until this past week he actually play yeah he played well he played well so there’s that little tiny spark like I probably wasn’t going to bet on him unless he had that performance last week I still think he was like t34 like it wasn’t great but
Is that little spark where it’s like okay maybe he’s starting to find something uh he did gain Strokes in all four areas when playing at the stadium course because the other courses don’t have strokes gain data uh but at a Stadium Course uh rounds he gained Strokes in all four areas including
Putting uh which is promising uh but at the end of the day this bet is just I feel obligated to bet him every sing year Tory Pines I mean interviewed him you know you had a nice chat with him I I don’t you you are obligated to bet him
And if he won here um after he told you that you know on a pod you know that would that’d be pretty upsetting right yeah I basically said which course do you play the best out ofor Pines I was like done betting on you every single
The that’s just an easy one I think English is a good shout Andy likes him I was on Andy’s pod um earlier he he gave a whole case on him you know I think it it makes total sense he’s been good here plays well in difficult conditions he’s
Been playing well he’s been playing well he’s got some good he’s got some good uh form cing it I will say another name in that range and this is a guy who I’ve been on a few times in the past I I just love some of these European guys uh
Nikolai Hoy guard I think he might have a big week you know I think it’s a good course fit I’m just worried about the history also update devil um Knights have four3 on the Devils they’ve scored three in the second period to the Devils one did you did you ride the Kings with
With me the knights yeah yeah yeah the knights the knights KN yeah I mean I had the devils are starting vich or VC ven or whatever his name is the line made it’s not over I’m not I’m not Vick lapping it but the line made zero sense
And I know Puck yeah he’s one of the worst goalies in the NHL right now him and El Samson off they both stin so yeah that was going to take the nights um I I said on and P say again what is the difference between Justin Rose and Jason
Day like Justin Rose shouldn’t be 40 points higher than Jason day they both won here um they were both really good here in their Prime they both had bounceback Seasons last year worse than de what did Justin Rose have a bounce back season last year yeah
He won uh he won Pebble all right yeah okay that’s fair um so I just think that number is a bit off Lowry H I’m just out I just he could play well but I’m not I’m not sure if I’m in on him um this week B Hustler loser Blacklist forever
List it’s interesting you know he’s won here two years ago wasn’t that long ago I took a long hard look at list like he’s a guy that can can poke his head around and he won in the fall you know Ryder Cup snub he wants to be at Beth
Page um you know this is a guy who’s motivated I mean he’s had a good number it’s not like if he’s been if he was trash for the past two years I think it’s a different story but he wanted the fall like he he’s been playing some decent golf Patrick Rogers first round
Leader I in like give me Patrick Rogers first round leader um because he’s a loser that can’t win but he could go low in round one okay he’s been playing decent he’s good here he’s California guy okay good po putter um I think he’s going to contend in a few events this
Year um I like him first round leader I like Daniel Burger was decent last week dude our guy what I don’t think I saw a single shot of Daniel Burger did he have he made the cut and played decent and like I think he gained a decent amount
With his irons yeah he was yeah he’s at least at the two Stadium Course so yeah 1.79 Strokes with approach are you bad but is he back he might be on his way back he he’s not I mean to be fair I mean I am betting on will
Zator so I guess Burger is kind of the exact same guy in this situation so it’s kind of hypocritical for me to say I’m betting on on will but not Burger because it’s almost the exact same result uh two guys coming off injury both I think finished
T39 uh both showed some promise but uh no I of the two I’ll I’ll take zalot what’s the price on burger right now he’s like 75 maybe Burger might be the better play I don’t know he’s won in California before um he he’s he he will be uh he’ll
Be at Pebble soon where he’s won I like Fox this week I like Ryan Fox like I like these DP World Tour guys Ryan Fox I think will win on the PGA tour this year I really like him at valpar or Colonial penil him in one of those places is this
The week not sure he could definitely shoot like 85 would not be surprised um but he’s he’s a bomber and he has some good results on difficult Golf Course and I think he he’ll make a strong um debut Aaron Ry he was first- round leader here he he’s been he’s been
Decent I like him on difficult tracks shank has been first round leader here I like him on difficult um tracks you know anything about uh Kevin Yu no okay so Kevin Yu um had a decent you know starts of the year last year top 10 at Pebble
Elite driver like top 10 in shokan off the te and then he got injured and then he took off for like legit five four months um you know kind of poked around first round leader guy and he almost wins last week um you know he has a really good um Sunday
Shoots like 10 under and now he’s 150 to one in this field putts well on POA bomber like elite elite driver of the ball I think that’s just a value play to be honest I like it um so I like EV I might bet him um I got another name I
Think he passed by didn’t mention okay who who you got what what do you think about Michael Kim T6 last week shro SK home model High School High scho I mean in good form what more would you 9 one well like that’s just I I don’t think it’s a
Great course fit to be honest yeah no you’re right but sure I I you know I don’t know why not I mean he uh I actually want to see how he’s played um here um because I know he’s played it um a few times but not great 44th last year 53rd in
2021 Mis cut but now he’s famous on Twitter so it kind famous on Twitter so Strokes gain Twitter followers Strokes Game Twitter followers is is jumping um right now he was he was pissed did you see a tweet he was pissed that they didn’t put him on the um yeah on the uh
Like or whatever golfers yeah he’s like I went to Tory pin’s high school and doesn’t even get but he does have an interview this week so oh there you go Gotta factor that into your no not a bet I’m gonna place I might do I might do a
Top 20 okay or maybe just bet on him in for a three ball I don’t know who’s who’s in his group on Wednesday but maybe three ball bet Sam Ryder value play for me I like I looked at Sam Ryder I like but why not he’s 150 to1 you
Could bet anyone for any reason at 150 to1 he almost won last year y he was fine last week M Eagle yeah why the hell not um I like Taylor Moore he was good here last year he’s a PGA Tour winner who are your long shot guys those are
Kind of some of the guys I like who are you kind of eyeing in the in the triple digits my long shot I got 350 to1 lanto Griffin what’s the case for l uh is it lanto or lonto I think it’s lonto I’ve always called him lanto I don’t think it’s
Lanto I don’t think lanto is like a name I didn’t know lanto was a name either okay uh Mr Griffin um pretty solid success year uh 12th in 2018 7th in 2021 so two top 12 finishes okay um finish top 40 the last two years um
Solid off the tea great short game his approach plays iron play is always what was just complete crap um but last week uh at the American Express at the two Stadium Course rounds he gained 3.38 Strokes on the field with his approach play it was like a top five or top three
Mark in the entire Field Stadium Court wow he’s just firing with his irons right so his irons just all of a sudden caught fire last week so if he can bring that iron play this week and then play like he normally does everywhere else
Value 350 to one put Buck on it no more than that dude 400 bucks on it dude you could you could retire did you see someone put uh like 300 bucks on Dunlap last week I don’t know if I believe that but I guess it’s true but like a family
Member dude that’s what’s pissing me off about these numbers this week is that you couldn’t ask if you’re the books you couldn’t ask for a better start to the season oh like genuinely no one won no one won like I think nationally you know maybe 30 40 people
In the entire United States were on total like Grayson Murray and Nick Dunlap it couldn’t have been that many people and there’s thousands upon thousands of people betting on golf every single week it is crazy that at the start of last season every single week it was like sheffler or John ROM’s
Going to win every single week even John ROM went one Masters and we were all like okay well I guess we’re just going to bet on one of those two guys every single week and then like from the halfway point of last year up to this point it’s like nothing but long shots
Are winning yeah I mean sing a lot of mid tier guys have been in there but yeah I mean Ramen Sheffer won six times before the Masters last year yeah um so I think the books are just being too greedy man like they’re just they’re just taking all our money and then
They’re not even giving us good value bro yeah it’s obset it honestly is um upsetting but I’m hoping you know the tide will turn you know we’ll get him normal winner um this week you want to talk some uh some NFL you want to talk
To yeah we can talk I want to um applaud you have you Vic lap your Eagles or frauds take enough like have you gotten enough run out of that take um yeah I yeah I think I’m done especially well I I kind of can’t really celebrate too much because they actually
Ended up being even more fraudulent than I thought they would be I actually okay so you you did weren’t even that extreme in okay I bet on them two of the last three week I bet on them both think games they played against the Giants and
They didn’t cover NE and lost over right in week 18 so like I jumped back on the Eagles train uh too early so I actually didn’t call them fraudulent enough they stunk but yes when I first said that they were fraudulent they had one loss they’re like eight- one or 10- one or
Something and I got ripped apart by Eagles fans and I I turn out if there’s one thing I can do in sports is point0 Def fraud okay that’s your um no because you’ve been good at at pointing out um fraud you did you know call my Islanders
Of frauds for a while and I think a couple years ago yeah yeah and forg for yeah um yeah you just like have beef with with Long Island like in in the Metro area but you did have a good time at UBS um when we went um together I know you
Didn’t have as much of a good time as when they play the Le and they lost um so Championship weekend um did any of the results um from this weekend surprise you um at all or you know did they kind of go um as expected um I mean there’s there a
Couple that I thought might have gone a little bit the other way but like there’s nothing shocking from this weekend no not no okay in terms of what happened on the football field no nothing shocked me like your your overall opinion of none of the teams changed that drastically no okay no so
We first game on Sunday Ravens Chiefs yeah Ravens minus three and a half minus 180 on the money line 44 and a half is the total yeah what is your early lean in this game what’s side who do you like here uh I’m betting on the Ravens laying
The points at the Ravens okay um few a few points I want to say first thing people who say you just can’t bet against Patrick Mahomes when an underdog is silly what he’s just going to win every single time he’s an underdog for the rest of his career you got to look
At the game a little bit deeper than that now I did bet on the Chiefs this past week against the bills so people can’t get too mad at me I was on the Chiefs last week but at the end of the day when it comes to sports like these
When it’s a team vers team Styles make fights and the Ravens are a stylistic nightmare for the Kansas City Chiefs what’s the weakest part of the Chiefs they run defense you can run the ball the bills ran the ball all over them this past weekend who who who runs the
Ball more than the Ravens nobody they run the ball they more than any other team they’re third in the NFL in yards perur carry they’re going to run the ball down Kansas City’s throat it’s not going to be close and what’s the biggest strength to the chief’s offense Patrick
Mahomes throwing the football who has the best secondary in the NFL the Ravens so the Ravens can run the football and stop the pass that’s a nightmare for the Chiefs I think the Ravens might win by double digits you’re big on the the Ravens you convince me I will tell um
The Ravens I’m in I I think the bills are kind of were overrated um this year so I don’t think that their win was that impressive um but I do think that you can make the case that the Chiefs should have won by a lot more than what they
Actually wound up um winning by but I I will trust your stats there I I do think that it is kind of the Ravens time and they don’t have a lot of holes in their game and I just don’t know how good the Chiefs truly are after their past two
Wins like I don’t know if they’re more like that or more like they were to end the um the regular season because they definitely did not have an unbelievable um end the year and I don’t really think they put up that many impressive performances yeah no this is
Not a great version of the Chiefs um I think people have a very short memory and they just think the last two weeks but uh they’re what 11 and six 10 and seven 11 and six uh in the regular season they lost to some bad teams uh the receiving core is absolutely
Terrible their defense is good or at least their pass defense is good um but you can run the ball against this Chiefs team all day and that’s what the Ravens are we taking like Gus Edwards over props Lamar over props like might be Lamar Lamar ran a ton this past week I
Think he was 11 carries 100 yards I think it might be Lamar it’s tough with Ravens running backs taking the over on the props because they play such a running back by committee okay um that it’s kind of tough they just kind of go
Yeah I knew that I knew that um any lean on the total uh under under okay ners home against the Lions Niners minus seven over unders 50 and a half what is your take on this game I I mean just call me Mr Square this weekend because I’m gonna
I’m going to back lay the points of the 49ers too Brian I don’t know if you saw over the weekend I went to war on Twitter yeah you’re a big party defenser yeah it makes no sense to me now Brock pie I understand if you want to say he’s
Not Elite that’s fine I probably agree with you but there are people on Twitter who think I’m stupid for thinking that Brock p is a good quarterback which makes absolutely no sense no matter what passing metric you want to look up Brian whether it’s ad just EPA per play yards
Per pass stemp air yards per row UM quarterback rating qbr Brock py leads the NFL not just top five he’s first in all of them first you can’t be a bad quarterback and lead the NFL in every single pass or metric that doesn’t make sense yes I understand he has more
Weapons than some other quarterbacks yes he plays a in a complimentary offensive system but that doesn’t mean that he can’t be a great quarterback that’s why like there is a combination of stats and kind of the eye test I’m not saying Brock P’s the quarterback in Le even
Though he leads in all metrics but he’s a great quarterback people are saying he’s terrible like as if stats mean nothing it’s unbelievable these people Bri they it’s like they’re they’re not accepting 1 plus one equals two it’s like I can show them two apples and be
Like look 1 plus one equals two and they’re like no you’re an idiot you have no idea what you’re talking about have you seen an apple before bro it’s unbel ball do you know you even watch and the lion secondary sucks by the way um one of the worst defense in the playoffs
They were Oak gain both by the Rams and the Buccaneers last week the 49ers are going to torch their their defense torch the only hope the Lions have is if they score on just about every single offensive possession and winning like a shoot like 42 to 35 or like
4240 it’s not so I I have been on the Brock py hating train however this was when he was the favorite to win the MVP and I was like he is not the MVP of the league I think Brock p is a great quarterback I think he’s top five top
Seven what ever in the NFL but when he was a favorite to win the MVP I just completely disagreed with that and I think it kind of just the award has turned into who’s the best quarterback right and not who’s the actual most valuable player right I like the over in
This game this will be a Sunday night um you know just lost everything on golf trying to get back into it and just kind of a Sunday night hell Mary points points points um I you know these are are both two over teams you know the
Ners D didn’t super impress me last week and I think they’ll be able to put up points you know because the lion secondary is bad I knew that personally I knew that um looking at my own metrics and everything dude this Knights Devils game is out of control 54 um six goals
In the second period um just crazy um I like the over here do do you lean over yeah I lean over yeah I will say about the 49ers defense is it is a little bit overrated a lot and they’re kind of like the Steelers where it’s just like every
Year people go oh yeah the Steelers defense is great or oh yeah the 49ers defense is great and then you look at the numbers they’re like they’re not that great 49ers defense is average the issue for the Lions is that their defense is like a bottom five unit so I’m I’m
Down I’m down Sunday card Ravens I I’ll I’ll Trust You Ravens over in lions ners like that is my that is my Sunday NFL card to get back to um even for the week there will be some some nuke plays um on that if the most likely scenario happens
And the Ravens and the ners win and they meet in the Super Bowl I don’t know if you saw the opener was a pick them which I don’t know if a Super Bowl has ever been a pick them do you have a lean there if that is the potential match up
And do you agree with the li no obviously it’s kind of tough to say without seeing them play this I thought the Ravens were I thought the 49ers would be three and a half Point favorites they were six and a half Point favorites at home to the Ravens on
Christmas uh the Ravens obviously won the Ravens have looked better since then and then obviously neutral field so I thought it was going to come down a few points but for it to shift from 6 and a half down to a pick them I think it is
Minus one and a half at most books I think Circa had to shift it to a pick him because obviously I think a lot of money came in on uh the Ravens but if it’s a pick them I I think I have to actually go 49ers really I don’t know for sure
Though but like I I set the 49ers in in my opinion like a a a small favorite I think like one and a half two is actually kind of the right line for the 49ers okay yeah I I think again that will be the Super Bowl you know I think
That’s you know a pretty safe bet so I you know I can’t really remember you know I’m not I haven’t been betting for my whole life but I’m curious as to the lowest line in the Super Bowl because usually it’s a little bit higher um so Eagles Chiefs last year was pretty close
To pickham I think it was one and a half really [ __ ] I don’t do I know ball God damn it it might I think it might have been you do know yeah so you want to talk some hockey because I don’t have a you know specific agenda but as an
Islander fan you know the Islanders are the only sport professional sports team I care about you know other team teams like the Giants and you know the bills and the Knicks it’s like whatever you know yeah I I don’t really care that much like we went to a Yankee game you
Know I don’t you know care too much about the Yankees but the Islanders you know they’re Long Island team I’m a Long Island guy I really have found a new love for hockey I love going to games and in my opinion it is the best sport
To go to live um and I just really just you know love the Islanders and they were having a decent year you know kind of an up and down year but they had a lot of impressive wins they were getting a lot of points and then you know there
Were a lot of issues with the coach and a lot of people were blaming lay Lambert for these like late collapses and I think a lot of people have this perception that Lou Lam Morello is old he doesn’t know what he’s doing and he goes out and he gets the greatest
A super intense got a a team that a coach that a lot of people wanted in Patrick W and I could not be more jacked up and excited to be an Islanders fan for the rest of the year I know your team has going through some coaching
Issues what are your overall thoughts on this move um for the Isles get Patrick W it’s certainly exciting I mean I think the Islanders definitely had to make a change at coach I I wish my map Leafs would too I I I don’t know if I’m fully
Convinced how good of a coach Patrick W is um it’s an exciting move I think it’s a high sealing move I think this could work out really well for the Islanders but um I mean w kind of he was in the NHL then he’s out I don’t know what he’s
Who is he been coaching the past few years did he go back he’s been coaching like the Junior League yeah like the junior Quebec League I know nothing about that is that like below the AHL like was it was it the que that the Quebec major Junior League that he was
Coaching in I think so yeah so in Canada so in the in the US if you want to go pro hockey you go the same thing as other sports where you go high school college and then the NHL in Canada you go it’s not based on schools uh you go
Up through the leagues the highest of the high is the major Junior League that’s where players get drafted out of so and then what happens is if you don’t make the NHL then you go to college and for every year you play major Junior they pay for a year your col so all
College hockey players are like mid 20s okay so Quebec major J is the one step before the NHL got so it’s similar to like the AHL like the league like the feeder league for the NHL no because the AHL is like you’re on an NHL team but
Not on the NHL roster so you go play AHL so it be equivalent to US College got it okay um as for you know overall thoughts on the the NHL season any Futures St cup odds I I have it up I could I could share my screen but you know ABS 8 to1
Panthers 9 to1 UM Oilers 9 to1 Stars 10 to1 is there any future you like I don’t why are the Canucks 17 to1 like they’re really good and I know the West is tough but are they like frauds I think they’re really talented H the frauds they’re
They’re frauds now they are a good team they’re a playoff team I think their odds to win the Stanley Cup are set probably about right 17 one uh but they’re shooting at a level that’s just unbelievable if you look at their shooting percentage compared to every other team they’re like their their
Shooting percentage is like almost 2% higher than the next best team that level of shooting is unsustainable in my opinion um there’s a stat that hockey people like to point out which is PDO it’s called and it’s a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage
A lot of metrics guys in the NHL think the PDO is a luck stat I don’t know if I’d go that far because there is a skill obviously to save percentage and shooting percentage but the Canucks lead the NHL by a mile in PD last year there
Was a team that led by a mile in PD and that was the Boston Bruns and they lost in the first round of the Panthers so um a lot of times those teams that rank too high in that PDO stat okay um kind of chok it away in the playoffs so I’m not
So then what would be overall metrics you like to look at and identifying a good hockey team I mean I’m going through an identity crisis when it comes to betting on hockey cuz I’m in the worst hockey I I just 0 and three every night 0 and three and three 0 and three
So full disclosure I’ve had this hockey usually I’m like solid at betting on the NHL this hockey season is my worst betting season of any sport of any year I can’t hit a winner so I don’t know but generally what I look at is I like stats like Cory percentage which measure
Measures all types of shots for and against even miss shots block shots uh all types of shots I like expected goals against expected goals for I like high danger scoring chances those are kind of the ones that I look at generally I think shooting percentage and same
Percentage to a certain extent there’s a lot of variance in those stats I generally more trust like expected goals and high danger scoring chances and Cory percentage a little bit of Fenwick percentage as well which is the same as Cory both have block shots so do who is
Your favorite team to win the Stanley Cup this year um I love the LA Kings okay I like the Oilers too but I don’t think there’s a ton of like I think now we’re buying high in the Oilers right now I think the time bet on the Oilers
Like a month and a half ago okay I think the kings are the best spot right now in terms of Buy Low they’re on a little bit of a losing streak they have the best penalty kill in the NHL which is huge they’re great defensively they’re great offensively defense wins championships
Yep if you look at all those stats like expected goals and Coursey percentage they’re top five in the NHL you’re getting a decent price on them right now 15 to one at least at the sports book I’m looking at um so if I were to give
It a pick right now I I I like the Kings um I will tell you one team to not bet on and that’s the Toronto Maple Leaves don’t waste your money don’t it’s just because they’re the most popular team in the world right like then they just know everyone will bet on
Them but I’m I was actually surprised like they’re I mean they’re in a wild card spot they’re one point better than the Isles but they’ve had a lot of really bad losses this year yeah they’ll get in the playoffs but I’ve never seen a team play with less heart than the
Maple Leafs um they need a coaching change like CH it’s exactly the same as the Islanders but I don’t even know if a coaching change will do it because the players on the Leafs the best way I like to put it is they don’t hate losing whereas the greatest players of all time
In every sport they stay up late at night they have nightmares about just losing think about Kobe Bryant uh Tom Brady LeBron well maybe not LeBron James Michael Jordan these guys despise the idea of losing the guys on the maps they’re like oh we lost oh well now we
Get to go in our lake house and chillo for the summer like they actually don’t care if they lose and you can’t win in the playoffs if you don’t care if you lose they like winning they like to win but they don’t really care if they lose yeah no they’re they’re a very
Frustrating um Team I obviously um enjoy when they lose like that makes me um were you at that Islanders Leafs game yeah a couple weeks ago I was yeah I mean but the Islanders like they were playing a game of shinny they were just they were not skating after the puck
Just H like they look like it was like the last 15 minutes of a practice and the coach should go have fun with a puck out there boys that’s what they look like in an NHL game against the Islanders it was unbelievable I’ve never seen more uninspired hockey in my life I
I enjoy that but I will say the Islanders are going to go on a run they’re going to make the playoffs I kind like they’re plus two they’re two to one to make the playoffs they’re one point out of a wild card spot the East is is stacked right now but I really
Think they’re gonna get a bump from this um they’re gonna get some injured guys back um they’re gonna have a big end to the year and I’m I’m very excited excited for it um Patrick W sorry Patrick W is my guy now like didn’t know he existed a couple months ago but like
I’m all in the East is good in terms of like there’s a lot more good teams the West is more topheavy like the best teams are kind of in the west but like in the East like there’s like 11 12 teams that could be playoff teams but
Will probably none of them will win the cup but then the leads areus 430 make the playoffs yeah they’ll make the playoffs are they going to make are they going to be in on a wild card spot um like that’s a crazy price in my opinion yeah the Red Wings are going to
Fall off for sure the Flyers are probably going to fall yeah I mean they might be wild card but they’re they’ll make the playoffs that’s a crazy line in my opinion I I don’t agree with uh but they’re they’re very overvalued for for um for for many reasons I mean I would
Hate if they finish in the wild card and they can play the Metropolitan Division in the first two rounds instead I wouldn’t hate that get me over of these Atlantic division games yeah I hate how the NHL playoffs are set up by the way are the Rangers good Rangers are very
Good Rangers are very good they’re they have the best like special teams in the NHL so they’re very good power play and very good penalty kill um but if they don’t get those going then they’re in trouble but yes they are generally a good team okay I hope they I mean I know
They’re record I know they’re like winning a bunch but like I just was wondering if they were I think the best team in the East is the Panthers yeah I think think that’s yeah I mean they’re the second favorite I think they are are definitely Le we have them this Saturday
We’re going to win um I can’t make it I would would have loved to go I love a nice weekend hockey game where I could get toasted um I actually got a ticket when we went because I parked I’m not going to go into it but whatever I
Parked in a in a railroad lot and I didn’t get my car early enough in the morning so that game cost me 150 bucks dude so I mean it was well I are you combining that with like no no no like it was 75 bucks and then I didn’t pay
Because I didn’t know I had a ticket and then it was but I’m made of money I don’t need it so it’s fine I I really don’t even umid yeah so it’s it’s all good but um I appreciate you coming on it was a good pod we covered so many
Different sports like everyone is a way better Gambler after listening to it and um we’ll we’ll have to to hit UBS or uh a Yankee game soon or maybe the links we’ll have to hit the link the links you have been you have been dodging me for
For a one-on-one match for a while as well so we’ll see if we can get that figured out yeah no we’ll have to hit Beth pagee you gotta come out early but um yeah I’m I’m we’ll we’ll play some golf at Beth Page but um appreciate everyone tuning in on a Monday night
Everyone go follow Ian um even though he has you know double the followers than me like you know so I do have one last thing I’d like to say okay yeah one thing that that we did not talk about I’m a big LPGA golfer I’m betting on it
Again this week okay yeah what are the lgp picks I don’t have them yet I haven’t made my picks for LPGA I was gonna say keep an eye on my Twitter for my article tweet didn’t you hit a bunch of LPGA I crushed LPGA last year um I
Don’t I I think there’s an edge to be had in LPGA I don’t think the odds are set right okay all right keep an I do one of my picks is probably M Lee playing I think Lydia Co goes back toback uh M Lee I don’t think it’s playing this okay let
Me know when you like M Lee she’s my favorite women’s goer yeah um so if you ever like her just let me know because I one I think she’s beautiful like I think she’s very attractive and she’s really really good at golf um as well she can get birdies she has some issues
Scrambling sometimes but she can fire birdies we want her on like easy short game tracks yep okay well you know that’s something to factor into the mile so we will um do that but we see you next week Pebble week everyone go follow next week is it wow pebble’s next week
Pebble waste right Genesis good good stretch and yeah it’ll be good but um see everyone next week everyone have a good night and um yeah
2 Comments
It’s always f Sam burns!
Pats vs. Seahawks was a pick, I believe