[Xs & Joes #2] Coaching Tenures: Chip Stacks and Honeymoons (Win First or Recruit First?)

In Episode 2 of Xs and Joes, Mike Wiemuth (iu-in-philly) and Bob Moats (cbobmoats) dive into what really creates momentum — and possibly even stability — for new coaches.

As usual, when you take a peek under the hood, the factors lead that lead to success or failure may not quite be what you assume.

In this episode …

Segment One: There are very few happy endings for college coaches

How do Mob Movies (Godfather and Scorsese Trilogy) help explain eventual outcomes for college coaches?

Job Stability in Coaching: An Oxymoron (Chart)

Convening the College of the Cardinals and Getting to White Smoke: Crean to Woodson

Segment Two: The Honeymoon Phase- What Are Danger Signs A Program May Need A Divorce Lawyer Sooner Rather Than Later?

Getting The Right Pieces In Place- Assistant Coaches and the First Three Classes

Get Kids Then Win Over Fans- What Role Does Style of Play Play

Can Early Winning Cause Problems Later On?

Segment Three: Your Chipstack- What does your stake look like?

All Programs Are Not Created Equally- Some Places Are Higher Risk/Higher Reward

Whiffs and Losses- Keeping Fans Engaged During The Transition

The Payoff aka The Extension Season- What Does It Look Like?

Segment Four: The Crown Lies Uneasy on the Heads of Mob Bosses and College Coaches: If You Think Getting To The Top Was Tough…Try Staying There

You’re listening to the back home network presented by HomeField apparel basketball Saw Well we’re here I’m Bob Moz welcome to x’s and Joe’s a podcast dedicated to decoding the winning formula in college basketball and I’m Mike weth welcoming you to episode two of exus and Joe’s coaching tenures chip stacks and honeymoons how do coaches survive so Bob um despite ourselves we made it to a

Second episode yeah I mean call it a holiday Miracle to say the least yeah yeah there’s I’ve not heard of any uh lawyers injunctions or viewer complaints so far so uh not not got any phone calls from anybody that you know or called in any offices so

Yeah I’m going to call that a win exactly no HR has not uh knocked on our door yet so quite happy about that so yeah I’m yeah I was really happy I think with episode one but um yeah I’m still sort of waiting for uh to learn what our

Initiation ritual is for joining the back home network I I’m thinking you know I might you know and we may have to truck you in for this one we’re up at Deli a week before uh selection Sunday doing a Taki run with the monsters at the uh at one

Of the at one of the convenience stores right up there for the Bracketology guys yeah I was yeah I was thinking like you know some kind of Butler or maid service uh you know for the for the deli folks yeah guys this of chips is not refilling

Itself no no sir it’s that or or maybe Galen calls us in and has us go pick up Dagwoods for the kids at the media School Som yeah that that would yeah that would be convenient too I’m actually volunteering there I have no

You we can we we we we can kill a few birds with one stone and any chance I get to go to Dagwoods I’m calling it a win too exactly yeah that’s a win-win l oh man but guess before we get started let’s uh yeah we should have a brief

Word about our sponsor HomeField apparel so yeah we were talking offline about about some of our recent touring on the uh the HomeField websit so uh maybe Bob why don’t you share some of the stuff you were finding on the website so again uh now that Christmas is over we we’ve

Got all over the shopping out of the way but then we start thinking ahead for birthday Father’s Day those types of those types of things for the family and my father-in-law he actually grew up in Providence uh graduate a Providence his dad was a um Professor there for for

Many years in I think biology and uh he uh he was there in the 60s and so they got a whole slew of Providence uh t-shirts basketball shirts from that you know inspired by that era but as you go down a little further there it is a 1987 Final Four Providence t-shirt and

Thinking about this podcast and one we’re doing here we’re goingon to be talking about Billy Donovan Oh Billy Donovan yeah that’s true as well as probably throw in a few things about Rick patino and you know you kind of just look back and that’s just giving that that that warm feeling you think

You know when you’re looking when you’re thinking about you know thinking about what great gifts to get people or what great gifts to get yourself when you got that $50 gift card that you don’t know what to do with yeah no exactly yeah I mean on on on my end I was scrolling

Through the HomeField site uh you just a little bit before Christmas and um I found a 1980s vintage Auburn uh bomber jacket and it just screamed that era like Bo Jackson Chuck person Pat Dy um yeah Charles Barkley and uh you know the version of Charles Barkley that was you

Know being fat shamed by Bob Knight to get him on the 84 Olympic team so yeah that’s those fun times yeah definitely so yeah so but yeah I mean we’re I mean I’m not an Auburn fan obviously you aren’t either um especially after that uh that recent

Game a few weeks ago but um but if I were buying for an Auburn fan I think HomeField would uh definitely be the first stop for uh for my War Eagle shopping list a agreed agreed yeah so um yeah we encourage all listeners to go and check out all the great uh college

Retroware that you’ll find at HomeField and you can find it on their website at HomeField apparel.com so let’s Jump Right In Bob let’s talk about coaching ten years yeah have you ever noticed there are very few happy endings for college coaches and that so many times you know you and I over the

Years you know we’re both connoisseurs of mob movies we’ve probably seen Good Fellas sitting next to each other at least a dozen times Le a dozen times yeah that was our that was like our default film that there’s like nothing else that anyone could agree on it like

Okay well it’s just you know it’s good Fellas sorry I I think weima theater was launched at Dunhill with Good Fellas to be perfectly honest yeah dun Hill Dunhill apartment D5 uh yeah I think good Fells was the inaugural inaugural film yeah so so again I mean kind of

Think about you know how when the mobster when a mobster finally dies in one of those films and you know you I kind of think about you know how college coaches go to and I think maybe the best death that mobster could have possible death of mobster could have had in one

Of those was when veto corleon and the first Godfather drops dead falling into his tomato plant in his in his garden yeah in his garden grandson’s got the spray can he’s shooting either water or DDT at his backside and as he’s hitting the ground he’s thinking everything I

Built is that is that its most vulnerable at the moment at this moment yeah I could lose it we could lose this all if things don’t go to plan and I have no influence on it whatsoever anymore yeah and I’m thinking of Mike shashki walking off that final four

Court losing to Carolina and almost having the same thought of at the end of the run you know yeah I’m going out on my own terms but this may not work out all that well and you know and I’m not going to have the ability to come in and

Basically save it maybe I can maybe I can do a Dean Smith but I’m thinking I’ve got my guy in and it may not you know and it but it’s still there’s a lot of question marks now there are there are and and that that’s your best possible outcome yeah

That’s the good that’s the good side yeah the Bad and the Ugly is you know you like Bob Huggins and that’s kind of like when uh Tommy from Casino Joe pes’s character gets drug out to that cornfield in Newton County and just beat with his brother and chucked into a hole

That’s right yeah yeah real life Tony spalatro yeah and his brother were uh yeah they were Louisville sluggard uh just outside Kentland Indiana I think which Speaking of my father-in-law he can take you he taught at North Newton so he for years so he could take you by

Where they where they found those bodies oh did he oh wow that’s interesting yeah you got you got to love the Chicago mob at that time just treated Northern Indiana like was their own private little human landfill I mean even going into our family’s ancestral Roots you

Know going down to terot and even into Southern Illinois you know that yeah that was it was definitely something during those times but uh but you you think about college coaches in particular you know being dismissed or being forced out and it kind of reminds

You of the Rota line the Henry Hill line from Good Fellows you know they don’t come at you screaming they come at you as friends and and so many times it’s a thing where you never really it’s really hard to go out on your own terms in this game

And we’re going to as we kind of go into this it’s it’s going to become pretty apparent to folks that it’s this is a hard road to to to tow yeah hard to get there maybe harder to stay there sure and that ending doesn’t always go the

Way that you really want it it’s you know maybe you know maybe it’s Al Maguire at the end walking off the National Championship in a lifetime broadcast deal that might be but that’s the one I can think of that you know really had that Disney type ending

Versus yeah the kind of fairy tale a nick pigy uh Martin Scorsese type of type of blood bath at the end so yeah exactly that is what it is so yeah no yeah that that’s true and it’s it’s you know the reality I think with uh you

Know with talking with fans is that it’s it’s kind of sort of hard to get fans accustomed to the idea that most most coaching tenur actually fail I think it’s just hard um because you know when you’re when you’re sort of in the middle of a coaching um search and the

Coaching um and that the last coach you know usually going out uh because of some kind of failure fans definitely are sort of in that mindset of like okay this is you know this is going to work and I’ve I I’ve I’ve struggled a little bit trying to purge from the brains of

Fans the idea that you know you and I have talked about this before it’s that sort of part Matrix part biblical prophecy of framing all new hires as quote unquote the chosen one it’s like you know how many times you know we you hear when a new coach is hired the the

Media or you know on uh on fan uh message boards you’ll hear phrases like you know I’ll be shocked if this guy doesn’t dominating this job or this is slam dunk higher and fans are kind of in that mindset of you know he shall deliver us to the promised

Land and and you can do that at the same time but you look at you again we’re looking at a chart right now where the numbers are kind of showing us that you know that first 61.6% out of the 362 coaches currently in division one are in their basically

Their first contract that you know zero through Four Seasons yeah and then another 20.4 are in have kind of found a way to get that that first extend at 5 to 10 Seasons at 20.4 so 80% of this of of of the of the current pool of active division one coaches they’re they’re

They’re they’re they’re on that first they’re they’re on that first or second contract and when you look at that coach for life um that 21 plus season you know that’s where the isos reside um the guy up in Oakland who’s been up there since 1986 the last remaining guy since the three-point line

Came into play wow um he’s been there since you know for that that period of time so no it’s not like the papacy or a Supreme Court Justice ship where you’re a you where where where you’re you’re getting the job for Life lifetime appointment lifetime appointment you

Know it’s not like you know my whole life dedicated like you’re doing the queen here you know or you know doing the do doing the Monarch’s oath it’s it’s a it it it is an uneasy situation and that job stability in coaching is oxym because at the same time you’re bringing in assistants

In andout all the time directors of basketball operations um uh recruiting coordinators everyone’s looking to move up in the world and and it makes sense because uh we’re just talking about shirts off camera because you know we just saw Indiana State play Michigan State you

Know um or Mike Lewis at at Ball State you know they’re pulling down three 300 300,000 350,000 a year that’s a really that’s a good living by any by by any stretch and especially you know in Indiana that’s you know you’re not doing too badly certainly but when you think

That you may only have that for a few years if you’re like yours and you’re you’re looking at the end of the season um and someone calls calling saying I’m going to pay three or four times the money to do what you’re doing and you’re what 50 years old it makes perfect sense

Why you would say I’m going to pack up and head to a power five or a high major type program get out of the valley and maybe look to secure a financial you know financial success for myself Financial Security and success for myself and my you know in the future um

Because then you know because you may only have a few years where that earning potential is going to be there and exactly it’s a question of is four million five million over the course of four years better than 1.2 and and these guys know the math they know that they

May only get one shot two shots to to jump up and when that call comes they’re going to take it seriously yeah exactly and and the question is it’s kind of getting there because you’re not really sure what’s happened at the job before you you probably have’t and again these guys

Talk I mean you know assistants are great with sharing back and forth they develop a network head coaches develop a network there’s a lot of chatter out there and and who else knows knows the situation better than another coach um in so many ways and somebody outside

Your program that you can you know go play golf with you know sort of thing the the few times you can get way to do that sort of thing and that the assistants also know and the DB the dbos know and the the grad assistants and all these individuals know that they could

Be working with each other at some point in the future not always working against each other so you may have a pretty good idea of what’s happened but you know when you’re talking about what gets the convening of the College of the Cardinals at a college program started

With a with a guy on his way out you know you guys are kind of keeping their eyes eyes peeled and most of them they’ll have agents they’re they’re they’re they’re they’re sending messages but yeah there there is this this this this thing that you know you’re not

Really sure what you’re kind of getting into yeah no it’s true I mean you think about like coaches you know they’re they’re human beings too I mean they have you know sort of the same Financial pressure and um and expectations that anyone you know that works let’s say

Like in the in the corporate world I mean the lifestyle of an assistant in in college basketball when you’re in your 20s and maybe into your 30s it’s not easy I mean you’re just you’re going to Au tournaments constantly you’re you know you’re at a game on Tuesday night

And then you’re almost immediately going on a maybe a flight or a long drive somewhere to watch a kid and is like high school game the next day and then coming back and yeah there’s just not a lot of home time and so I think just

From a even from like a personal family standpoint you get to your 4S and 50s as a coach and you feel like all right I’ve kind of earned I’ve punched my ticket for uh you know in this uh in this profession now I want to get the payoff

And so getting some kind of like Financial stability and um basically what you would expect any sort of like subdirector of the corporation finally getting his first directorship um you know opportunity it’s like yep I’m gonna take the I’m GNA take the chance you know if I have to move the family you

Know a thousand miles away to a complet different environment it’s going to be worth it because you know I’ve earned this so it’s uh yeah it’s really no different for coaching than you see like in any other you know facet of uh a professional life true true and and and

And again it’s it’s also one but again you’re you’re working without a safety net um and it’s and and basically losing losing games is your is your biggest cause for things not working out but um you’re you it used to be recruiting scandals but I think those with nil the

Transfer portal and the last run of this that we had with the FBI probe I don’t really see those popping up as much but you know you’re a few players acting out away and mishandling that situation um you could be media relations or something that happens in your personal

Life that that that that catches you in a position where and especially if you’re if you’re not as successful as you could be or should be or have been you find yourself pretty quickly in a position where your your your job is very tenuous and then at that point your

Athletic director is asking some real questions and again we’ve seen this before where um now all of a sudden you get called in they come at you as friends you know leave the gun take the canoli and now the College of the Cardinals is convened and unlike you

Know like when we were at IU I mean your last year around that time I would just left and I was living still living you know when you know back in Columbus and coming back for it it doesn’t always look like the Bob NightFire it was look

Like a third world coup that first night yeah or the second third oh yeah I remember I was driving around but you definitely have this thing where all of a sudden the the fan base has already been kind of working themselves into a tizzy about whether to stay or go and

You’re already you know you see on the message board some names being floated but now at this point everyone’s looking for white smoke who are you going to bring in at that point and I mean like I remember with you know Kelvin Samson steps down from the job in the you know

In the middle of the Season his last year they knew the program needed somebody to come in and and really kind of fix the public Rel ations um and a lot of you know player whether it was team conduct or whether it was just kind of people’s feelings

Towards the program and they found a guy that basically took the job and was going to give it 110% of his what seemed to be inexhaustible energy yeah and do it in a way like he was running for governor for the for his tenure at IU

And Tom cre yeah he he Tom cre has very good politicking skills I I will say that saw that guy walking his kids playing basketball one of the rare times he was able to see his kid actually plays in Floyd’s Knobs Indiana at a sixth grade aou tournament I swear Mike

And usually college coaches walk in or even High School coaches they’ll walk in and they’re going to find the the furthest corner from humans because they’re there to watch their kid play yeah they’ve been texting kids trying to keep them away from fortnite you know trying to compete with fortnite to try

To get them to you know say hey do you want to come to my institution yeah and and they’re they’re there they’ve had their cleansing drive but he’s there and he he glad-handed everybody in the room which was great to see but didn’t matter if they had a kenty entucky sweatshirt

Or a Louisville t-shirt on or or a Purdue hat he’s just talking to him about I you basketball and he’s just an ambass you know that fullon ambassador of the program and that showed in his first few recruiting classes he gets what we would say was would be highle

Success with u two sweet 16s yeah take the watch shot an iconic moment as well as you know a number one AP team and then things started appearing to fall off a bit yeah yeah the wheels kind of fell off in that post 2013 yeah and yeah

Got one more big 10 title in a sweet 16 and then the next you know the next year you know had a few good outings some really and and a really bad one and then the team just stopped winning and I remember in the at the early stage of

That I saw empty seats at Assembly Hall and I talked to you and we had the conversation about well just what is you know what’s IU going to do yeah you know because I don’t see them firing a guy that’s one year removed from a big 10

Title and a sweet 16 birth and I think you had the answer right yeah like I think we is that where we’re discussing uh the recruiting at that time and and the projections on it and looking at you know talent and yeah it it was pretty

Bad back then yeah yeah the that was the well 2017 class and that was um yeah that was one that was just loaded up in the state of Indiana you had like Paul Scruggs uh Chris wils Jackson Jr like there I think there were like five top 50 recruits in state

Of Indiana which was like you know a high at that time you know in either direction like you know five or six years um and Ken was basically you know not in on any of those guys you know seriously I mean it got a little bit he

Got slightly deep with Will but he was apparently always like infatuated with UCLA and yeah I remember Ken offered 19 of the top um 50 recruits in that particular class and he got none of them so he had literally zero tractions so and I I’ve always observed that that’s

Usually you know that there this like when coaches sort of like fail there’s like this cascading of fail it’s like you know they they lose the fans and then they’ll lose the media and then the recruits notice and then once recruits notice then they start you know bailing

On the coach and then once once the athletic sees that the recruits have bailed uh on that particular coach in that uh at that particular school that’s usually sort of like the last straw for ads it’s like okay there’s just no way of digging out of this and I think at

That time in that middle of that IU season when we talked I think I did I remember that conversation saying yeah there’s just there’s just no uh he’s just not going to be able to dig himself out of this hole it’s way too deep in terms of what he’s got and even the

Potential of what he’s got coming in and and things have gotten to a point where IU actually turns down an nit home game to force them to go down to Georgia Tech and at that point writing’s on the wall so guess what the College of the Cardinals meets again and the conversations are

Happening you know private public all across the board speculation who’s next and then the white smoke shows up and here’s Archie Miller coming into play and Archie Miller much like Tom Ken had had a had a really good coaching resume was looking to move up in the world um I

Would say that at the time when IU hired Archie he was the number probably the number one top choice for just about anybody well was medist he was yeah yeah and I mean just this is this is the guy and again we go back to the well coach

For life here we go he’s a young dude he’s going to bring hardnose defense and and and and he’s going to do inside out inside the state and then outside the state recruiting and things again from a recruiting standpoint early on took you know he

Filled a lot of gaps that that Ken had especially with you know picking up some size um although what eventually killed him was you know not being and then Al was not being able to get as many guards other than Rob fennessy and Romeo lford in the first year and then Arman

Flanklin in year year two yeah you start looking at that those results and you know that first you we’ll talk a little bit more about kind of the first couple games that Archie had in particular that that that that caused some problems but the first one particularly the first one

Yeah march on yeah speaking of um I I would I would say that you know by the time the team hit a losing streak and then the recruiting fell apart soon after and then once again prime targets recruiting targets aren’t coming and the team hits the skids in year four

Things it it became time for IU to once again bring everybody back together y you know and they went in an entirely different direction by taking a guy with no college experience but an incredible IU pedigree and a 20 plus year career coaching in the National Basketball

Association and at that level it changed I think you know I think IU kind of said we got to go in a totally different direction much like Michigan did when they replaced John beine much like Louisville did when they replaced Kenny Payne much like uh or when they Kenny

Payne in uh much like Memphis did when they brought in Anthony Hardway you know you kind of look at you know that that now it’s like maybe in some respects that coaching available pool of candidates may have even may may have even been expanded a little more yeah

And you know so that’s I think a question that as we’ve been looking at this over the years you know we’re going to you know we’re going to continue to look at and kind of see where the trend goes but from a foundational standpoint it’s something that you know there’s

Definitely some patterns that we’re going to get get into and so when we come back we’re going to look at what it’s like when a program actually lands its guy great stay tuned on the back home network and welcome back to ex’s and Joe’s I’m Mike weth joined by coach Bob

Moes so Bob let’s talk about coaching hires and honeymoons can you define can you define what the honeymoon is before we start talking about what it’s going to look like you know early on if you actually think about getting needing a divorced lawyer exactly yeah um yeah it’s funny

And you we’ve talked about this before like honeymoon when you use it in a sports context everyone knows what you’re talking about when you use it but no one can Define it like if you ask somebody can you define exactly what a honeymoon is and people like struggle

It’s like oh well uh so yeah we so I actually did sit down at one point and just try to like think out like okay what does it actually mean like what how does it functionally work is probably the better way to think of it like how does it actually like can you

Distinguish when a honeymoon is happening and when it is not happening so so I I Define it as the the period of time at the start of uh a coach’s year when fans recruits media athletic directors don’t hold a coach’s win loss record against them it’s and it’s a and

There’s no set duration for it I mean it’s I I say sort of generically it lasts typically typically 3 years but it can certainly dry up much faster and sometimes it can extend a little bit based upon like a school circumstances and maybe sometimes even what happened

At the last regime if uh if the media and fans and AD think that a coach just needs more time to build a a program up I probably in thinking about the honeymoon I’ve always said that the most critical element of it is it it provides a brief

Window for your school to recruit players that are often Out Of Reach for the team for you know teams with your win loss record it’s I you know I I I compare it to those old Nintendo games where your character you know grabs a boosting Relic and for like you know 20

Seconds they’re three times as fast or you know they’re indestructible so you get to go on this quick Rampage before returning back to normal and that’s I think the way to think about the uh the honeymoon is that is a it is a brief period of time where you basically power

Up above your circumstances where recruits will listen to you um whereas you know outside of the honeymoon with your record they would not listen to you so it is a uh you know for 3 six months you really do have this opportunity to ramp up as much talent as you possibly

Can because again it doesn’t last and that’s where coaches so often get into trouble is that once the honeymoon elapses they’re simply not a position to maintain any level of uh program momentum wins and losses recruiting uh roster construction just they they just simply run out of gas the certain the

The coaches that don’t do well during the honeymoon versus the coaches that do really kill it during the honeymoon are the ones that sort of like shoot off you know um on their own all their own power and and one of the I mean guess one of

The early tells is we look at you know when we look at a new hire or even a guy’s been there a year or two or you know who he’s got around him as assistant coaches um who’s who who they brought in and like the Kenya Hunter situation in

Indiana is fairly unique because usually when the head guy goes everyone’s got you know everyone’s called their realtor yeah they a bolt out of there and secretary too for that matter it’s it’s not you’re not really looking it it’s it’s a it’s like a presidential transition in that

Situation um but you I I would always say a good warning sign um I think is when you know you look at assistance and maybe after that first year they make a bunch of moves one move is understandable usually I mean you can see it because again guys

Are looking to move up or sometimes you just don’t get a fit that works but if you’re looking at those first couple three years and you’re seeing multiple Moves In and Out of the program um I think we saw that under Mike Davis um a lot where it’s just guys just okay it

Out we got to go uh we can’t you know and or you’re kind of wondering it’s like well where you know does this guy actually have the contacts that that that are needed to win at the level that this coach is at um those are those are

Some questions that we kind of look at too and you know there’s always a you know good good moves like you know when Joan Howard takes over at Michigan he brings in Phil Morelli to to help him on the bench you know because to learn kind of

The college game and how to manage and and assist the program or Thad coming in and helping with uh help Woody with some things that yeah just and yeah those are those are interesting moves that you know are made as well especially to kind of help you

Know I want to call them Training Wheels by any stretch of the imagination but I would definitely call it a support into inside the program that if you have a question you got a guy down the hall and if it doesn’t work then we at least covered ourselves to say we’ve given

This guy everything we that he’s needed yeah as well as you know again a new guy can maybe come in and also look at the pool of money that’s being offered to assistance and be able to bump it up saying look thisen you made a a sizable

Financial commitment in me you look at my contract and my buyout what’s another 300 400 500 Grand at this point because if we do this right you’re going to make that back tenfold minimally tenfold yeah and you know the the market for recruiting assistants that are good at

Recruiting is uh is always uh competitive I mean the the the amount of money you see it like in college football too you see like the the the inflation for those top end like uh D coordinators at like Georgia and Alabama or the offensive coordinators at you

Know Oklahoma or USC I mean they’re just just completely going off the charts at that particular strata of game so yeah yeah yes it it’s interesting yeah and talking about like assistance you know I the thing I was always interested in sort of the geographical changes that

Take place you you think about how like one uh one regime goes out with the the the prior coach and the assistance the assistance that the that the what the prior coach would usually have like a particular like geographic area that they covered you think like

Tom ostram with Indiana you know he was like focused more on like Wisconsin and and Minnesota and then suddenly you bring in an other lead assistant like Kenya Hunter and he’s more of like a an I95 guy you know he’s like uh the DMV down you know through um through to the

South and and some parts North you know into like you know New York New Jersey and and then you get someone like um uh yah coach yah and he’s you know more of like a Georgia guy and so he’s more of like across South you know like um you know Georgia Florida basically

The SEC territory so that’s always an interesting Dynamic too is that you suddenly see with um with new batch of assistance a completely different coaching or recruiting map for that particular staff I’ve always said that you know with ads they are typically renting the Rolodex of the incoming

Staff is that you know you may have been working all these different programs but now we’re basically renting all of your connections that you have you know with aou with coaches in a particular you know high schools and these particular hot beds you know and recruiting so yeah

It’s it’s you’re completely changing up where you can hunt for recruits with the change in the uh uh with the staff that you bring in now not just the head coach because head coach obviously has their own connections but the assistance especially that’s like so critical I think it’s something fans don’t really

Pay enough attention to when you know they’re they’re talking about okay well we want to recruit you know in this area and that area you have to really ask okay is your assistant really sort of at the top end of of sort of like the call

Back list for the coaches in that area or they’re kind of maybe more in the middle or bottom so so that’s always an interesting Dynamic I think I would think so yeah yeah so talk about getting kids then you went over the fans and you’re looking at as we’re

Looking at this first chart you know I think for so many of these guys you know and we were looking at Jay Wright Billy Donovan and Ben Howland at who was at UCLA in the in the in the 2000s you know the first the first decade of the 2000s

Yeah um one of the big things and you look at both Wright Jay Wright in particular when you think about him his style of play is in was incredibly attractive to kids I would say Billy Donovan was the same way I think Howland you know too I mean I think all three of

Them can can point to that but I mean coaches at every level look at what Jay Wright’s done with you know kind of his for out and his you know sort of free flow his movement based offense with that yeah you know he’s the guy that teaches you when you you you’re never

More open than when you catch the ball yeah and you know so the expectation is if you’re open and you catch it shoot it you know if you’re in your range and so yeah that clearly you know it doesn’t matter what the first couple years are that clearly works and so as

You’re working at this sort of slay early in recruiting you know you can you know you can get away with that message so yeah we can talk a little bit about as we’re looking at this at this slide with these three sure yeah and also you know just

As a note for our Audio Only listeners you know Bob and I are going through some um um some slides here and so we’ll we’ll we’ll go through and explain exactly like what we’re looking at but if you ever want to check out uh on YouTube uh what we’re uh what we’re

Displaying here that it’ll be there and we’ll also be dropping this in the show notes but we will explain these you know as we go through them um and these examples I put up Jay Wright Billy benan and Ben Howland as and what their early recruiting of success look like the

Common theme with so many of these coaches is that uh they are recruiting at a very high level despite very poor win loss records but they’re grabbing recruit that otherwise would be customarily out of range for uh for a program that has you know that that little success at the time again that’s

The benefit of the honeymoon the honeymoon in does not totally erase exactly what your programs when loss record is but it certainly mitigates uh the effect that it has on on your capacity to recruit high in recruits so if you look at Jay Wright’s uh case here

Like two init Seasons at the very beginning of his 10 but he still recruited um in this case let’s see six top 70 kids Jason Frasier Allen Ray Kur Sumpter uh will Sheridan Randy Foy Mike nardy Billy Donovan same thing in nit season at the very beginning of his

Tenure uh was able to recruit four top 75 guys including Mike Miller Ted depe and uh Udonis hlin and Ben hen was at 11 and 17 in year one but still recruited uh four top 60 kids including Trevor Zer um and Jordan Farmar so that’s a very

Common um pattern that you do notice when you do this kind of research is that you see coaches went recruiting way above their circumstances you know there was a time I think early on when I started do this research and I was like sharing some of this online you would

Get people that would like fire back saying that well no actually when coaches come in they simply can’t really get good recruits they they have to earn them so they have to win a little bit and then they’ll get some better recruits and then those better recruits

Will help them win a little bit and so there’s always been this sort of counter theory of this stepping stone um concept that you slowly build up but you have to win first before you get the recruits but if you look sort of at a macro level through history of the the coaches

Especially the ones that really like made it made it like you know win to final fours and won national championships there’s a consist pattern of them recruiting first and then winning thereafter so that’s sort of what we’re showing here on this uh in this first

Slide and the uh you know there’s the we talk about you know and just so we are clear there are outliers that do exist uh to this pattern um I think John beine and Scott drew are like the first two I usually typically bring up uh not that

They didn’t have to get better recruits before they won but with them it was much more a case of there was a a definite delay uh in the time frame at which they started recruiting uh really well in most cases that we’re discussing here the recruiting spiked around like

Your cycle two or cycle three basically that you’re ramping up and getting really good recruits by year four in the tenure uh those cases with um uh with Drew and beine they really only spiked in recruiting about like years four and five and then had better years in like

In Seasons like six seven and eight so so that’s just you know so so that we’re being completely transparent that this is not a 100% guarantee of you know how these develop it is a very heavily skewed uh pattern towards recruiting first and then winning thereafter well and

And you you you you look at the co the whole idea that you okay so by that year three year four we’re going talk about this a little later now at the same time a bunch of other programs many of whom could be in your conference many could

Be in your region they’ve now may have made a decision at their head coaching position and when you again talking that 2third almost 2third of the profession right now are in that first contract as you’re getting towards the end of your first contract uh whole slew of programs

Have now replaced their head guy and now they’re buying a honeymoon so at this point you’re wanting to see some results and you kind of have to strike you have to strike early on the recruiting Trail so you can build your brand with recruits including getting the the

Proper game footage that you can show them well it’s like hey we’re going to change the way we play here at at uh at at basketball U you know and and the kid looks at you and says well why haven’t you you know it’s it’s negative recruiting doesn’t necessarily work

Unless you actually have a foundation from which to build yeah exactly and if the perception of your program is that you know well we want to get out and run well you’re you’re you’re at 61 possessions a game and my aaou coach and my dad and Uncle Bill and all these

People have sat down and told me that no no they’re they’re basically sludging along here um yeah that that is interesting yeah no that that’s kind of an interesting concept if you think about it I I think with with fans there’s always a worry about winning

Early on right it’s always like oh God you know the recruits they see us we’re only winning you know uh you know 13 15 16 games in years you know one and two the reality and they get worried that that is going to have adverse impact on

On recruiting the winning part is not necessarily the biggest variable I mean it helps to win obviously but it’s it’s certainly not as nearly as important as what you say is that you’re trying to avoid having those adverse narratives setting in about having a boring offense or having an offense that doesn’t um

Maximize you know the players capabilities and so it’s it’s always what I say that with negative recruiting or just negative perception of your program within the context of recruiting that only can happen if you’re screwing up if you’re doing well then they’re really not much material to be used against you

So it’s it’s always the case that if things are going well the coach can go to recruits and tell their version of The Narrative about their program and that’s what the kids will believe if you’re screwing up then it’s your Rivals that will be telling your this narrative

About your program and that’s what the kids will believe and so the best advice for coaches is that even if you’re not winning a lot early on just don’t be an absolute train wreck just be at least semi functional be at least semi-interesting to watch and make sure

At least that the kids have some degree of capacity to you know Thrive within your offense especially on offense because that’s always what a lot of kids are watching and and never underestimate the mindset of an 18-year-old kid who’s who would say to themselves well you

Know what they may be losing now but if I get there we’ll start winning I’ll guarantee it like I was 18 too remember we were going to take over the world Mike yes exactly no it’s the innocence of Youth of course yes so yeah this so

The slide we just uh threw up here and uh what we’re doing in this case is we’re we’re showing sort of the the split between the coaches that make it uh versus those that don’t and when we say make it we in this context we’re talking about making a lease to their

First extension and so on the the left hand side here we have Jay Wright and his year four roster versus Chris Mack at Louisville in his year four roster Wright has in year four he’s got let’s see seven top 75 kids and Chris Mack has just three so more than a two

To one variance in terms of uh topend talent and obviously Chris Mack when he was coming to Louisville there’s great great expectations for him to have a j you know a Louisville or sorry a um a Villanova level uh roster as as Jay Wright had and that’s also you know just

Another sort of like pullback out a little bit to sort of these larger concepts of the uh of the research and the historical data on this is like pretty straightforward there are very few cases of coaches making it long term at a without substantial early recruiting success I me make it to an

Extension with only modest early recruiting success is like it’s like the Kobe kobashi Maru for coaching hires it’s just no win no win scenario from Star Trek 2 Guys yes exactly star I’m not even a Star Trek guy but even I know what that one is so but yeah it’s just a

Very hard mountain to climb without talent and then when you look at if you do like what we’re doing here taking a look at these you know sort of paired comparisons of coaches that made it versus those that didn’t one of the most common um uh one one of the most common things

You will see is exactly this there’s almost invariably some kind of roster um uh comparison that is just not advantageous for the one that gets fired in this case again Chris Mack let go after four years and he had half the talent that Jay Wright had in terms of upper tier

Talent and then also just running through and just you know to demonstrate again this example uh this is uh we’re showing Billy Donovan his year four roster versus Archie Miller um Donovan had let’s see one two six top 75 kids and Archie allergist had uh three and Trace Jackson Davis Drome Hunter and

Christian Lander so again coach on the left uh made it had great success because they loaded up on Talent early on in the honeymoon they were able to uh hit on a High a high number of uh upper tier recruits during the honeymoon and by the time they got to year four when

The honeymoon was elapsing they were you know had all the momentum they needed to continue outside the honeymoon whereas Archie Miller came to year four and was basically out of gas he didn’t have the talent nearly to uh to be able to survive uh you know especially with a

Program like Indiana and the expect expectations that you have at a school like that right and it should be added that you know Lander really didn’t play a whole heck of a lot his first his two years at Indiana yeah Hunter I don’t think ever started so yeah no exactly

And so yeah that’s and it’s again you know it’s we we show you just a few of these examples but uh this is something that is just very consistent I mean uh bob Knight you think about him he landed you know may Buckner Benson abery Wilkerson in those first two cycles

Coach K was yeah go ahead and and and yeah and I mean you you you look at those those early th th those early programs but um I was going to actually say at the same time you know early winning can be a problem too right that

It’s not just early losing oh totally yeah that that expectation goes up to a certain point and all of the sudden you know you you know Kevin O’s cutting down the nuts and he’s out of a job a few years later Mike Davis goes to a final an NCAA Final

And year two year two yeah I mean you can even make it you know um you know make a case for you know Michigan when you know Steve Took the program over wins as an assistant coach jumps in and yeah lands to fab five and by the middle

Part and part because of the recruiting you know because of a recruiting Scandal and some other things that popped up but never really replicated the same success and kind of gave Michigan the ability to part ways with them yeah and so when you jump up that level early on it’s you you

Kind of be able to need to be able to repeat it pretty quickly if you’re if you’re going to do the survival if you’re into survival mode yeah that’s um that’s something I’m kind of interested in with uh Kansas State and Missouri right now around like what would

Happened with with how well those guys jumped in in year one and had you know 25 plus win Seasons right out of the bat coming off of you know Seasons that were not nearly nearly as good you know by their by their predecessor so you do wonder what happens once those guys

Maybe like level out a little bit is because you do see that so often is that coaches that come in get hot really fast in years one and two and then um you know start declining in years three and four it’s much better um historically speaking to do the inverse

It’s much better to build up and then be in good shape in in year four versus spiking up really fast in years 1 and two and then declining in years three and four because again the the effect of the honeymoon is just uh the being the the effect of the

Honeymoon at the beginning versus you know the elapsing of the honeymoon is just uh is tremendous in terms of its impact on recruiting and just perception within the program right right so yeah I think we’ve covered uh so I think we’ve really cover the honeymoons pretty well

Um I think coming up next on the next segment we’ll discuss chip stacks and what coach have to do to survive long term so stay tuned on the back home network so we’re talking now about what the chip stack looks like and what does your stake look like when you’re going

In to the game and um basically it’s the capital you have to work with as a coach and it’s important to remember that not all programs are created equally that some programs you’re going to walk in with in some cases substantially more chips than you would at maybe the lower tier of your

Conference because you have tradition you have facilities you have kind of a perception that your program is a perennial winner you have good alumni and fan support um that it kind of allows you to kind of get into the game with more but at the same time at a program and

Indiana’s definitely we talk about Blue Bloods and we we’ve talked about this Indiana is the ultimate Blue Blood yeah if you know the true definition of blue blood then yes yeah exactly you do you know who we are it’s it and and you can hear that from you know kind of Kentucky

Fans well we’re Kentucky or we’re Kansas um we’re UCL uh and you look at that you know that sort of that sort of lineage and even if you fallen on hard times if you’re a Rockefeller and you’re living under a bridge you’re still a Rockefeller and even you know you you

Know you may still have your your your your card for the daughters of the or sons of the American Revolution and your and and years of the social register that’s sitting there even though there’s not a whole lot money a lot of money left in left left in the bank account

But dang it you’re still you’re still somebody gu exactly your porcelan Club ring it still shines just as well as it did 20 years ago so through that and and so but that but those types of programs you’re at a higher risk even though there’s potentially a higher reward and

And there is a lot for coaches to look at that and say you know if you’re a Tom Ken and Archie Miller um definitely Bill self leaves leaves Illinois jumps over to Kansas uh sure Roy Williams you know they take a risk on him taking him out

To Kansas to begin with uh you know why Billy Gillespie goes to Kentucky and then John caliper leaves a national finalist team to go replace him well I can not only can I win there but I can win parentally there it’s not going to be the the the the the SLO isn’t going

To be as hard yeah now you may end up at a place like you know like Scott drew did at Baylor where he inherited an entire disaster situation yeah and you know felonies don’t always bode well like when the players were committing murder yeah most coaches don’t come in

And the word murder is of the prior it’s part of the reconciliation process and so yeah he got got really entrepreneurial and basically said I can take this and make this into something and has definitely done that yeah um but you also have the um you know situations

Like Purdue have which have a proud tradition as well and you know can can bring you know have have had incredible stability at the head coaching position since since before the shot clock yeah um was instituted um and you you know that but at the same time it’s like you

Know so maybe your chip stacks of some of those programs maybe a little lighter but the expectation is not necessarily lower but it’s not going to get you killed as fast you’re not at the final table at the World Series of Poker per se yeah

You’re may be able to kind of work up and so some earlier or some mistakes may not absolutely kill you yeah and you can kind of get that extension the next few extension and you can maybe not just Linger on but be very successful at what

You do and build a winner in those areas yeah exactly and since you know we’re we’re we’re talking about this concept and and because this like the honeymoon and and and some of the other Concepts we’ll be talking about in in future episodes we will Define these as we go

And so at least in this context as Bob said the chip stack for an for a uh a basic definition is just a figurative Bank of capital political Capital that coaches start each tenure with that rises and Falls based upon for performance and so like Bob said as as

You’re winning games you know you’re spiking up losing and having like embarrassing outcomes than they go down so and so yeah I think Bob you and I have talked about like what actually what are like the most common things that cause the chip stack to rise and

Fall I think we had identified you know not only just from what we look at but also there’s some research that’s been done on this you know for both college football and basketball so we’ve kind of looked at some of those too um number one we saw losing too much

Relative to program ex program expectations and so again program expectations being the key point you can lose at Northwestern more than you can at let’s say even Illinois uh you can lose more at Notre Dame versus Indiana in terms of you know basketball there’s just going to be different sort of

Minimum standards in terms of what is going to be applied to the coach’s expectation in terms of of their output um ugly losses we talked about our Miller earlier we hinted at it it you know first first game out out of the shoot get you you get you just roasted by

Indiana State um at home defensive coach they shoot lights out from three yeah they had and they had some other some successes but they also the same thing when Indiana Purdue Fort Wayne and now Purdue Fort Wayne came into town they did the exact same thing

And fans are kind of thinking twice of are we sure we made the right call and the Casual fan definitely and you know they look at some of the guys that may you know well this guy follows it more closely well Archie Miller is one of the

Top guys you got to give him time to get his recruits in but even then you’re still in the back head going yeah but you’re not supposed to lose 20 plus points to Indiana State on your home floor in your in your inaugural game yeah exactly yeah that was bad I mean

That’s one of those that just like you know early on even though it is the honeymoon technically that’s one of those that just people put it in their back of their um memory banks and pull out once the honeymoon’s over when they’re really poed with the coach and

You remember towards the end when people are sort of enumerating all of the reasons get rid of Archie M often times invariably someone say and that damn Indiana state law the very it’s like wait a minute you remember that it at that point when it happen it kind of

Reminds you the Hunter Thompson short story that we both are very familiar with oh the honey moon the that where where the couple takes a cruise and I think the husband ends up being chucked overboard by the captain and his wife who who can get together in the middle

Of the the boat and you’re going oh it’s like that’s that’s really funny but it’s kind of dark but you know you’re kind of thinking that if your honeymoon phase you’re your wife’s already dialing up a divorce lawyer you’re you’re not probably and yeah you’re not getting off

To the best of starts to say the least yeah you might want to keep the receipts on those wedding presents exactly yeah yeah go ahead but a similar story like Billy Billy Gillespie at at Kentucky and some of his issues that he had coming in wasn’t losing a whole lot but by

Kentucky standards you know replacing tubby Smith again another example guy who won early and things just didn’t go like the fan base wanted but when the fan base says things like well the guy just doesn’t get us he just doesn’t get Who We Are right and they can find something

Anything to get you out the door um that that’s that sort of thing where those losses do add up a little bit you go in and you win 32 games and you get caught in your RV with a case of beer and a couple girls from the you know from from

The you know from the opposing school yeah you’re not exactly forgiven but you might you might keep your job but if you’re at 20 and 10 and type of program that might be the time for the program to say maybe maybe we have a character issue as

It’s called exactly yeah the the sum total of the variables are working against you in those cases if especially if you’re records at where where he had it at yeah yeah yeah I I was thinking about um yeah like with Archie especially and it just kind of brought up another one

Losing to rivals that is always a massive one and yeah that’s another one you find consistently on the research is that um losing to Rivals and not just losing to them directly head-to-head but underperforming relative to your Rivals is just absolute killer for uh for any coaching staff and thinking of in the

Indiana case with Archie Miller remember that Bob night Reunion game at home versus Purdue yeah I I’m I think I even Tech I texted you like as as soon as that game was over and I said yeah that was an Enron grade collapse in Archie’s uh stock value in his in his chip

Stack it’s like and at that point you and I are having the conversation so what can he do to pull it out and you know we’re coming with ideas but at the same time it’s like well at that point your prognosis isn’t good you know at this point you’re you’re yeah you know

At that at that point you’re shoving all in on certain things and hoping that Trey calman run the decides he’s going to come and or Miller if not him Mason Miller yeah those that whole process of well we got oh if he can just get the

Next class you know that’s got you know if he can just figure that part out he’s made some changes on the staff some things can go differently but yeah it’s not yeah th those those those those losses and yeah with Kentucky as well you know you start looking for Miller

That was a huge problem down the stretch yeah then you you mentioned the the other big one whiffing on high-end high high attention recruits especially like to in to either instate rivals or conference Rivals that’s the other big one that just absolutely destroys your chip stack the kid actually picked

Purdue and took the red shirt versus playing versus basically starting for us starting it yeah exactly yeah no that and yeah we all remember that night on uh in the uh in the interwebs was uh was absolutely it almost like a psych experiment uh for sports like pschology

Just unfolding by the minute when coff and ren uh PO for Purdue it it’ll be it’ll be a story we’ll do later yeah yeah that will be another one yeah it was interesting we’re were thinking about um and we and we’ve talked about this before you remember Knight at the

End of that last like what six years of his uh tenure he was four or Sor he was five and 14 combined versus Kentucky and do yeah and we remember we’re in school around that time and that was just constantly like the the thing that you could tell the fans was just getting

Absolutely drained on was oh God he’s we’re losing we’re not losing head-to-head versus them but you know kuy’s got two national championships Purdue as a three Pat for the Big 10 title and we’re just kind of like you know stuck in this in this uh sort of like middle

Zone yep yeah and that’s in spite of having this yeah exactly granted 20 years earlier but still nonetheless yeah so one thing I want to talk about you know in terms of you know the the escaping the honeymoon period and going into um the period thereafter when we’re talking about like chip

Stacks and you know sort of building up you know political capital and what the successful coaches did versus the ones that you know uh were let go early one thing I want to focus on is the sort of the what I call the the typical shape of a coaching tenure for

Successful coaches uh in this example and I put up on the screen again we’ll d drop this in the show notes for those listening on the the Pod um we have bob Knight here looking at his first 10 years at IU based upon winning percentage and also um some like

Highlights of you know either winning national championships or going to final fours the shape that you see uh in this uh slide example is basically um in the first years the first four five years of his tenure the winning percentage is going up basically about every single

Year it’s a a nice steady incline towards uh the his uh the top of his uh performance in that time which would have been the 76 of you know undefeated championship team this is typically the shape of you see of coaches that make it they will have a a starting point that’s usually

Pretty low in like year one and they’ll slowly build up and typically have some kind of payoff usually around between years let’s say four to six is the most common there’s and the payoff does not necessarily have to be a national championship it’s typically some kind of

Thing that the fans can kind of grab on to and say ah this is this is a memorable season it could have be a top five season it could be a conference Championship maybe two could be a final four for visit or for some it is in fact

A national championship in this case with Knight um he had sort of two peak Seasons um 75 and 76 with one of them being a national championship he actually had a a final four in year two which is a little bit unusual on the the development path uh for most coaches

Again most payoffs usually come again usually Years Around years four or five but he actually had one in year two but again compared to some others that had a really good let’s say year and then dropped he kept ascending and that’s the most important point is that again he

Had the recruits he had May Benson ABY Buckner Wilkerson and all those guys and that’s what allowed him to have this sort of upward trajectory and to sh and then what you also notice thereafter is the other should be noted that 60% winning percentages you’re looking at about like

20 and 10 roughly you know 18 19 20 wins versus and you know I would even say two years before that National Championship they won an nit as well yeah um with that crew so I mean you you you know you had some moments that was before the 64

Team tournament so things were things were a little different so yeah but you you do have that regression and then it’s a matter of okay because your first group is now worked through now you have a bunch of younger guys and it’s also I think hard to stack classes the way

Where you can have a perennial winner does that make would you agree with that Mike oh yeah absolutely yeah but it’s usually because the buildup you’re you’re the payoff itself is almost implicitly involving guys that are probably just there for maybe one more year whether it’s or whether it’s and

Now it’s like you have high capacity portals or maybe like a one and done or like really good sophomore but back then it was like okay you’re win your championships once your guys are seniors and the case with this with Knight in 76 yeah you just had that load of guys that

Were basically the top their game as seniors Scott May walks off the floor and gets replaced by Mike Woodson you know exactly yeah no and that’s and that’s the the second point you brought up accurately Bob is that after you have that first initial runup the other consistent pattern you see with these

Coaches is you have a regression it’s usually immediately after the peak you have a drop back for maybe a few years some for some coaches might be one or two years but there’s almost invariably a drop back in this case with Knight you see drops down even below uh

Right around almost like a I think it was like 13 and 14 that that next year and then again the pattern that you see for successful coaches is that they build back up again towards another Peak so you have almost like this sort of camel

Camel back sort of like a shape that you know you start to see develop a spike a regression and then it build back up again towards another Peak and with the peak that you know KN the second Peak the Knight hit was like year 10 which was his 881

Uh championship team with Isaiah Thomas and all those guys sliding to the next example here in this slide we have Billy Donovan again same thing low early success first two years even below 50% then spiking up year three and by year four he’s already in the final four again looking back on the

Slide we discussed previously in the last segment we noted like how much talent he had going into year four and so you see this example with the I think it was the six or seven top 70 kids he had that’s what allowed him to have this this payoff his decline was or his

Regression after his initial Peak was a little bit more shallow compared to some other coaches he kind of stayed up around 70 75% winning percentage he dropped back a little bit I think in like year eight but by the time he gets to year um like 9 10 11

He’s already back up and he wins back-to-back championships um and years’s uh 10 11 so again um this shape is uh it’s it does not look exactly the same for everybody but directionally speaking this is is a pretty consistent pattern you’ll see uh for coaches that

Do make it the uh to their uh first extension and Beyond you know they kind of become those coaches that Bob referenced in his uh in segment one the guys that make it the the 2.5% of coaches that are almost like the ameritus dean that just never leaves their

School in this case uh Jay Wright again he had a he actually dipped a little bit his first uh between years one and two and then spikes up in year four has a top I think like a top five finish in year five drops back down again year six

And seven and then by year 8 he in as first final four drops back for a few years and then builds back up into years like 15 16 17 towards those national championship teams and again you’re you know that’s that you know you you you

Look at that you know that year 11 for for for right he’s sub 500 uh one of the you know the post his only sub 500 in that whole run in that run after you know after the buildup but that you can temper that because you’ve built up enough of a chip

Stack where you can absorb that hit yeah you can absorb the loss and that I think is what you know you know one Bad season may not do it for you now two or three we’re we’re in a different ball game yeah exactly yeah it’s it’s and you

Almost do have to think about it almost like uh like a bank account it is there’s almost uh there’s like an implied amount of Goodwill that you build up by having those wins by getting to final fours in year four that allows you to have maybe you know a

Down year or two where the fans will give you the benefit of the doubt I think Mike Davis really actually kind of benefited from that tremendously not only you know that he had the benefit of having a pretty good record versus Purdue at that time but that final four

Visit and the CH getting to the final game I think bought him a lot more slack that allowed him to survive those you know those middle years the 15 and 16 uh season I think had like two years in a row is like basically 500 teens and he

Still un aable to get like that extra year whereas I think without that final four visit I think there’s like no chance he would have been fired probably at the end of that second well especially considering the the situation that he was in and what he inherited

With where the fan base was altogether exactly political thing and and that and and again that makes a that makes a huge difference I mean kind of Bill guthridge fits that as well to a certain degree that even though his fat last game was a final four game Dean said you’re going

To take this program for a little while yeah but you’re caretaking until we can bring Roy home um let’s go back to Dean just briefly Sor about that because I just wanted to talk quickly about Dean Smith again Dean has a very it’s it’s it’s very strange because he was the one

Who really kind of ramped up into year six people forget Dean Smith did um take the job over from a um from a legend in Frank Maguire yeah and when you look at the the the graph we have up here shows um the first the first six years where he’s around 500

Except for one year where he was at 70% and year four or I think it was year four was the game where he got dog walk by Wake Forest and he came back and they had him hanging from a hanging from a tree in Chapel Hill and he’s thinking and

They’re thinking maybe things are going to change you know maybe maybe this isn’t the guy yeah and when you look at you know Smith you know he made some changes offensively not having a big man he went into you know moved into more of a cutting based offense with some War

Four action uh a version of Shuffle that he called basic cut where he was able to kind of expand what he could do offensively with the guys that he had and the L after that is legendary and even though people said he couldn’t win the big one until 1981 and one another

One in 93 you’re still talking about a guy that for a period of time was the winningest alltime coach in division one exactly yeah and what we’re looking at here in the examples this is just years the early years for Dean at five final four visits this this is not even the uh

The the chart parameters that includes his National Championship runs so this is just and like what even legends that have not won you know the big one like you said they’re still holding the fan base um in their in their Corner because they are going to final fours because

They are like consistently above you know 70 80% winning percentage winning the ACC winning the ACC tournament getting to the tournament itself making sweet 16s in his case he’s dethroning NC State as the instate power that’s true yeah exactly that was a lot of fans that

Are who are not from like the Tobacco Road area probably don’t remember yeah NC State used to be sort of the uh the heavy in the early ACC until uh yeah until North Carolina and remember and de and Dean yeah Dean Smith basically sort of like flipped the conference towards Carolina

And in those middle Years also he was contending with John Wooden sitting at UCLA exactly yeah so yep and move so moving into some comparisons so you know we talked about what what the coaches that succeeded did you know in terms of ramping up their um ramping up their

Talent and having like this particular shape of you know sort of like upswinging regression in then like still like constantly moving uh you know in a in a positive direction if you chart um side by side the uh the same winning percentages for the coaches that

Didn’t make it you tend to see the the uh the contrast in this example we have Billy Donovan versus Archie Miller and again you see that uh in this example Archie actually had a little bit more winning early on especially in his first two years versus uh Billy

Donovan and then you see and by year three Donovan is already starting to separate himself from Miller in terms of his winning percentages he’s up at uh above 7% and Miller’s like you know down in 60 and and and falling again we we talk about thinking about the previous slide in the

Other segment that variance that you saw by the time you got to year four Archie had half the uh you know like the top 75 top 80 talent that uh that Donovan did and that is clearly Illustrated here in this chart you know in terms of what the

End result is you the coaches said don’t get that uh level of talent when the honeymoon is ending they take the trajectory that archu Miller did which was basically like slide down towards the basement whereas the coaches that did get the necessary Talent when the honeymoon ends are having what you see

With Billy Donovan shape which is like upswinging so that’s you know it it’s one of those things that and of course you know if you’re an Indiana fan you live through this I always tell fans when you’re getting you know you’re recruiting a stalling the way it did

With Archie Miller you know he had what towards the end of his tenure I did a data pull and he had 31 offers to to 80 let’s see 31 offers to top 80 guards in his tenure at that time and he only landed two of them which is a 6%

Uh a hit rate on your on your offers 6% hit rate on guards that a program with those that kind of expectations for winning that is almost a guaranteed loser you’re not going to make it and it’s important to note that when you evaluate a recruiting class you basically need to wait

Until the kids actually show up to Campus before you say this is a win this is you know that it’s not like oh well we’re we’re sitting in February well with the way patterns have changed and have evolved and with the transfer portal too you have to account for the portal also in

This conversation I think exactly yeah and it’s yeah it’s one of those things that you kind of like you have to analyze at a macro level that you we see the patterns but yeah individually you certainly do have to sort of like wait wait and to see like okay well maybe

This coach is a little bit different he can uh he can see things a little bit better than some others so but that definitely shows when your guy gets extended or not what the payoff season actually looks like versus the payout season yeah yeah the um yeah it’s it’s it’s

Funny like when I when I talk to fans about what you what you hear in like the message boards when recruiting is starting to decline I I’ve always said that you know if you’re your teams recruiting stalls and you hear on the message boards well we just have to win some more games

Before we can access those Prime recruits I would say that coach is not going to survive just based upon the historical record um not again not not in that moment not dead yet but uh exceptions exist but exceptions are exceptions for reasons they’re not they’re when you know they’re outside

The standard deviation of where you want to be exactly yeah like not dead yet but Fredo with the fishing pool in hand walking to the dock with with Neri right behind him yeah there and there’s Michael yeah and he’s just looking over and yeah Fredo hugging Michael and he’s

Looking over at near and near he’s going yeah this is the writing’s on the wall I’m going to have to yeah the ad is looking at the Personnel guy and saying I’m going to have to basically you know tell this guy what his uh what his retirement you know what his options are

For benefits send him his Cobra packet yeah yeah M green thinking yeah boy today I think I need a massage today I need a massage today what a what a great idea you know I you know oh man and same thing yeah and just looking at another example here just head

To-head Jay Wright versus Chris Mack again we saw the the variance between you know what Mack had and what Wright had going into year four in terms of recruiting and again you see the same pattern the coach that got the necessary recruits has upswinging um results in

Terms of win loss and the the coach that didn’t take advantage of the honeymoon adequately has a Down Swinging um results on the win loss um tally so so yeah this is a the consistent pattern we we see throughout love the love the love the the the Chris Mack winning you know

And that almost 80% wins at ul and then just the the drop where it’s a ramp up so trajectory matters but honestly Mike if you and I you know when when those hires happen at ul and IU if you had thought for a minute that both those

Guys would be out of a job today at both those institutions we probably would have taken the BET right yeah yeah exactly just based on their past performances Xavier and Dayton and what they were what what was supposed to be in those situations and there’s definitely different reasons as to why

That happened but at the end of the day it’s there are no sure things in coaching hires yeah interesting no it’s it’s the it’s the stuff that uh you know it’s fascinating like you know how people think at the beginning of a 10e versus at the end of the 10e like you

Know just the the variance is just uh it’s striking we always kind of look back and was like oh man I I saw my text with when you know this coach was hired I can’t believe I thought this about this guy that now I’m going on the

Message board and you know and riing ask asking for him to be uh you know kicked out of town so yeah sometimes stuff goes bad you know it’s like yeah again you know phone call Rings you’re sitting at the diner your guy’s supposed to be a

Maid man and all of a sudden ah it didn’t work it didn’t work and then dairo SM you know that that fans dairo smashing the phone into the it exactly they killed him yeah I know and what do we do it was real real stuff so so we’re going to wrap up here

In a second uh but and we’re going to you know talk a little bit about what’s it like when you make it great just stay tuned on the back home network so the crown lies uneasy on the heels of my bosses and college coaches if you think get in the top was tough

Try staying there and I I look at that from a standpoint of um you have guys that you know naith Hall of Famers that find themselves getting pushed out at the end of their careers um you know guys that maybe hang on a little too long and I think like

Jim beheim would be an example of that um where he just kept chasing what he was chasing something or continuing in the job for for his reasons and at the end it you know doesn’t necessarily you know do you ask the question of do you

Want to go out a certain way how do you want to define the end of your of your run and it’s really hard to to do that because of the grueling nature of the job um it’s constant and now with cell phones and discords and text messaging in particular how kids communicate how

Families are set up you bring the portal and nil into the game you know assistants and head coaches you know there’s not a whole lot of downtime or off time there’s always activity it’s not just going and you know sitting down with the family and eating their cookies

And talking about which Baptist Church you go to it’s not like Blue Chips anymore in that regard it’s not even like hoop dreams anymore because I think in many respects families have kind of you know closed off certain themselves from certain influences that they weren’t necessarily the case 20 or 30

Years ago but you know again you look at you know you look at a situation you know Jean Katy leaving Purdue um probably was not the way he wanted to go out know train your successor Jean and it was kind of train your successor but there was a kind of

An implied or else I thought in that in that in that situation yeah I did um and or you look at um you know Rick patino and when Louisville just basically crashed itself into the Ohio river and floated down towards Evansville and the per you know again the character issues we’ll call them

That uh it’s a family podcast um the character issue isues with him but then also with the recruiting and some of the issues that came from how they were recruiting athletes and their families yeah um came into by The Village Idiot would say call that into question and

You know that kind of that tarnishing of a reputation at the end of your career at the same time even a guy like a Jay Wright at the end you know he he went out pretty much on top you know with the final four but he makes the decision

It’s like you know do I really want to stay here with all these kids nipping at my heels and these kids are coming up through coaching and maybe you could give it another five 10 years even in some cases I mean people you know with lifespans and life expectancies and the healthc

Care these guys are getting they can go and they can survive it but you know Bill self just you know he’s coming back from a heart attack last year at the end of his season yeah um you know Jill Jim Calhoun you know beat cancer and then

Took another job you know for a little while after that was the case um maybe a little less pressure and I think it’s also I’ve heard before it’s hard it’s hard for programs that put a guy you know who maybe was at one of the prestige programs taking a level or two

Or three down and they’re saying wait I don’t have I don’t have a charter aircraft to go see a recruit no no well how much is my budget wait is that is that per week no that’s your annual budget what what huh it’s like exactly

Oh you know comes out at the end of your yeah my per my my my per DM now is a drive-thru it’s not the steakhouse now yeah that those are the sorts of things that I think as guys are looking to get out you know it’s a question of well

I’ve made enough money the game might still be fun for me but I can still talk about it I don’t I don’t have to pursue this anymore but you know trying to stay at the top of this profession is incredibly is incredibly challenging because and the other thing is as you

Get older you get more stubborn in your ways and you begin to figure out things a little differently so I don’t know I think um I think that that that that Crown you know at the end of the day these coaches you know people who are doing this for living and getting in

Many respects being paid very well to do so there is an incredible amount of pressure put on them and it is Cutthroat and it is difficult and to make it up through the top of the ranks you know you you you you’ve got to you you got to

Dedicate a lifetime to doing it and so there’s that element to it which at the end of it it might just be well you know I want to play golf whenever I want and I can’t do that if I’m doing this no exactly it’s just like coaches like we

Said before at the beginning like coaches are human they have their own motivations own challenges and yeah I mean just any professional at the end of their career you know you just get older and you’re just your body cannot take it going traveling the same way you could

When you’re in your 30s or 40s so it’s uh just there’s just some hum there’s some just physical realities that that start to impinge upon this those questions we’ve heard caliper say it now that you know he’s he’s shifted his Focus you know he goes up there with a

Teleprompter to accept a job at rup arena with what 20,000 screaming fans and it looked like something out of a political convention yeah and I’m going to give you national titles because that’s what Kentucky demands and and now you’re hearing him they just did a documentary with him and he’s talking

About well yeah winning is great but you know I really just look at the stories I look at the kids the lives I’ve helped change yeah and so now it’s almost like are you coach and I’m not saying you’re coaching in spite of your fan base but in many respects you’re saying what’s

Important here is look at John Wall’s career or look at you know give me another give me another one from the list the amazing list that he’s Dorian lamb yeah exactly yeah they’re making millions of dollars in the league and their families they’re they’re they’re their family’s trajectories have been

Changed forever because of what we helped them do here at the University of Kentucky and isn’t that what it’s all about yeah and you know I can survive the message boards because it’s going to cost you a lot of money to get rid of me

But at the same time it’s also a thing where that definition process it it is a it is difficult I think for these guys for for for really that ending and when is it time to hang it up because you know you also get situations like you

Know Dean Smith you know where you could just hand it over to Bill guthridge or you know what kay did with shy you can pick your successor give yourself the best chance for success of preserving the Legacy uh in in Dean’s case you kept control of the program you know

Basically you were the you know you were the the the the Godfather in name not just you know not in name anymore but in functionality over the program itself over the family but there’s a lot of this that you know goes into these conversations I think yeah

And at this point you know what you know where this goes I think in the modern world things are going to continue to change and evolve I think I think it’s actually going to be harder to find the coach for life anymore yeah just based the market exactly yeah I think expectations

Change I think as the the stability of sort of players staying at particular schools changes that’s also going to like ramp up a similar instability in terms of like uh coaching tenures you’re just going to have a lot of like just a more natural expectation just like

Moving in and out and I think it’s just as coaches like just think how like frustrated coaches get I can I can tell you that I don’t think Jay Wright was pleased with how the portal was functioning just just living out here not far from literally where he lives um

I I heard more than enough that yeah there’s just a lot of the coaches I think are not uh enamored with uh how sort of crazy and frenetic it is to like survive in the a portal dominated world and you throw on the second part of nil

And and name image likeness monies and the question of well am I going to be expected now to go raise money for a collective am I going to be you know even though I’m not supposed to be are we going to be negotiating with agents

Yeah you know am I going to get the support from my institution I think a lot of guys especially in kind of that next tier under the high performing programs the moneyed programs you know the old the old guard programs they’re going to be asking those questions and

You know well no it’s going to cost you 4 million 5 million a year I’m ballparking this you know whatever it whatever that figure is on top of this I mean you’ve heard the guy in football in Maryland saying don’t build me a new facility get me nil don’t

Build me a new practice facility get me that so so I think I think that wraps it up for us for another episode don’t you Mike I think so I think this is a good one I think so too and you know um yeah for uh let’s see episode three we were

Discussing U thinking about roster construction right yeah we’re g we’re going to look at we’re we’re going to kind of take more of a instead of digging back so far in the past we’re actually going to look at kind of what’s going on right now and talk about The

Good the Bad and the Ugly of you know rosters you know that are that that are kind of in that what what Mike calls sweet spot and then ones that are outside and which ones are the good ones in those in those groups which ones are not performing well and which ones we

Kind of ugly we just can’t kind of figure them out they’re not exactly doing it to form but something’s working but it’s not working optimally to say the least yeah so w with that with that title choice I guess I’m going to have to brush up on my uh my Clint Eastwood

And Le Von CLE quotes for for the next one that’s that that’s more your area I will grant we you you’ll have a few and I and I’ll I’ll do my best and hold my own in that conversation okay great well we want to thank everybody for listening

Once again and have a happy and safe New Year’s exactly yeah this this endless conversation was brought to you by the back home network be sure to check out out all the great content uh the bhn content including assembly call doing the work and Crimson cast on YouTube and ATB backom network.com

So until next time I’m Mike weth and I’m Bob Moes have a happy New Year Everybody