Set your reminders for the sports betting shows every week (all times Eastern):
Sunday 9pm – PGA Initial Research
Monday 9pm – PGA Data Dive
Wednesday 9pm – PGA DFS Tactics
Friday 9pm – Friday Night Chill Stream
Friday Night Chill Stream content will vary so stop by and hang out! Like someone once said “It’s like a box of chocolates…you’ll never know what you’re gonna get.”
Follow me on Social Media where my betting cards for the PGA tournament of the week will be placed:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Kapta1NKahl
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/Kapta1NKahl
Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/kapta1nkahl
Kick: https://kick.com/kapta1nkahl
Subscribe to Gabe’s weekly article for a great beginning to your weekly research and give him a follow over at Twitter @glzisk
Hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 Sony Open DFS tactic show we’ve got a late start obviously a later start than we normally do being an hour behind thanks to a scheduling conflict I had but no fear we have everything you need to dominate
Your DFS contest this week or to make the optimal last minute Wagers we have the updated forecast for Honolulu and Y Country Club the ownership projections of course my rankings everything you will need to win this week good a good show for you all so let’s not waste any
Time all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best tool out there for golf analytics uh there are a lot of great tools out there don’t get me wrong I simply believe that fantasy National is the best one for you it has everything that you need
To dominate week in and week out for your Wagers and for the DFS contest go check out fantasy national.com you will not regret it in the description to the video there are links to all of the social media first off my X and Instagram where I post research usually
Every Monday around previous winners some course history uh every Monday on the uh for the PGA Tour uh that came out again this past Monday so so if you want to see the weekly research that I do every week on the PJ tour give me a follow at your preferred social media
Site X or Instagram uh X is also where I place two other pieces of content my weekly betting cards and my uh weekly player exposure in the DFS contests that I play so if you want to see the Wagers and my player pool or player exposure uh for
Every week give me a follow over at X and then lastly for social media gab’s X handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe uh unfortunately I was not able to join him this Wednesday night but if you are a subscriber to his article which is free
To do by the way you’re going to be join able to join us in his substack chat every Wednesday as we continue the DFS talk over there um after calls calls and a usual schedule uh tonight uh just a little bit different but hopefully you were in gabes substack chat I know
He created a new one for 2024 had a lot of good insights uh we’ve talked back and forth today uh so go show gave some support uh follow him over on social media subscribe to that article again it is free to do so and then lastly we are
Live Chat is open want to hear from you all who are your top plays this week for the Sony Open who is your winner who are you pivoting to fading away from all of that and of course if you are watching live I would love to to hear your
Response to the poll question which I need to type up and put into chat so I will be doing that uh momentarily after the intro but would love to hear from the community again who are your top plays fading away from uh any 6K plays that you all have I definitely have a
Couple that I want to recommend to you all so let’s figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 2024 Sony Open and we’re going to start as we customarily do on a DFS tactics show with the updated forecast over at windfinder good evening Gabe thanks for jumping in chat again
Apologies that I was not able to join you in your chat uh due to some uh scheduling conflicts that I had uh but hopefully you had a good chat over there a lot of um good discussion would love to hear um your thoughts um about the
Sony Open uh let me type up this um poll question here very very quickly uh let’s see so the poll question is in general how well do you see or do you think the century players perform this week and I need to add some options here in general excellent meaning several top 10
Good um contenders and a few top 20s poor um no one inside the top 10 or awful no one inside the top 20 so let me put that poll out there for you all would love to hear your opinion on such question but we’re here at the windfinder forecast no super forecast uh
Unfortunately um but what what we have looks like tomorrow is going to be the windiest of the days looks like it starts out fairly calm in the morning looking at probably low teens in terms of sustained winds um maybe gusts into the 20s and then by the time the late morning or
Early afternoon start you’re getting some of the worst wins of the week sustained wins into the 20s you have gusts nearing 30 and there’s some potential for some rain here in terms of uh at y Country Club in Honolulu uh excuse me late tomorrow with that said if this rain does truly
Come I think there is a pretty good advantage for the latest of the late uh Thursday PM players when with rain there’s always a chance of a delay a push back um into Saturday morning uh as far as your cut we look at the rest of the week Friday and Saturday look
Fairly um innocuous I guess for uh Honolulu standards wins maybe getting into the teenss and then gusts maybe reaching 20 perhaps but uh Gabe also had a very good note on social media earlier this evening in the fact that there has been a lot of rain there was a lot of wind
Earlier this week at w so the course is going to be probably softer than what we are used to seeing it again all of this is to say I think there is a decent Advantage for the late the latest of late Thursday p.m. Friday a.m. especially since you see the wind
Direction changes when this weather system comes through and those who have the latest of late tea times on Thursday are playing the same course the same cardinality of wind direction whereas the those Thursday morning and in the earliest of the Thursday p.m. is going to have a a wind
Change and the course is going to play a little different I don’t know how much of an advantage I would give but I do think it is um prudent to give the latest of the Thursday p.m. and the earliest of Friday a.m starters a little bit of an advantage
And then Saturday looks pretty nice and Sunday looks fantastic uh High has 72 very very little wind on Sunday so looking like it could be an absolute scoring Fest on Sunday so we’re going to try to as we always do try to get six of six through
I think the best way to do that is going to have a little bit of an advantage on these very late Thursday p.m. tea times so there’s the updated forecast here at windfinder with that we have the filters of moderate and windy selected in fantasy National in
The past couple of years our top performers in windy conditions moderate and windy conditions Wills Al torus Keegan Bradley Matt Fitzpatrick Chris Kirk Cory Connor Billy horel emelan agrio Hadi Brian Harmon and Tom hogy here’s your top 10 in terms of wind and this really matters a lot for Thursday
Tomorrow maybe a little bit uh into Friday but mainly this is for Thursday uh and your players who have played well in the wind but even with that amount of wind we didn’t see anything drastic in terms of sustained winds into the 30s there isn’t rain throughout the entirety of the
Tournament I still believe and we’ll see this in the mixed condition model I still believe that this is going to play relatively easy a winning score probably at or around 20 under so our top players in the past calendar year in rounds that are easy those players have been Alex noren
Ludvick Ober Eric Cole Adam hadwin Doug gim Chris Kirk Luke list JT Poston Stephen joerger and Tyler Duncan and you’ll see when we go to the mixed condition model I’m hedging quite a bit that I still think whilei is going to play easy this week so if it doesn’t I
Could be in quite a bit of trouble but speaking of the mixed condition model let’s go ahead and jump straight into it that way you know where my rankings are getting getting their basis from and you know where you can make your adjustments perhaps looks like
We have a couple of answers here uh in terms of the poll again if you’re watching live I ask that you answer that question looks like good contenders in a few top 20s I would probably tend to agree with that um I don’t know if there’s going to be several top 10 um
But when we get to the end of the show my one and done and whatnot you will see that uh I have a a couple players I’m going to focus on that were at capala last week all right in terms of our mixed condition model for this week 10%
In Strokes gained approach backed this off from 15% last year look uh the most important shot type here is putting we’ve seen that all week um SEIU really dominated with the irons last year but it’s really all about the putting you think about hideki’s win in 2022 he was majority
In terms of putting most of your top 10 especially your top fives all about the putting so only 10% in approach but it is going to be a facet that you don’t want to ignore this week 15% in Bermuda putting on average and fast uh speed greens I wasn’t confident
Looking at just fast especially with the amount of rain that they’ve had this week and if wind really does pick up tomorrow I can Envision a scenario where the um where the PGA and the Yi uh grounds crew superintendent want to slow down those uh greens uh that way
They’re playable if the winds are truly up like the forecast has so I’m going to be looking at average and fast speed Bermuda greens but it is the still the most important shot type HP here 15% on average and fast Bermuda greens and we go into the scoring and we put spent a
Lot of time this week around scoring uh that was some of the indepth uh material that I put out on social media regarding past winners of the Sony 10% in Opportunities gained that could be a little bit heavy again as I mentioned last week where I was at kaaloa I was uh
Kind of going on my little tangent of bogey avoidance this is kind of my my angle that I’m using to attack this week I would not fault you if you only wanted to put 5% into opportunities gained but I’m going with 10% in Opportunities gain because every single winner of the Sony
In the past 10 years came to W having been positive or having gained on the field the last time they played in Opportunities and because this is a scoring metric I always prefer when possible to combine a scoring filter like easy with a scoring metric so I’ve got 10% in Opportunities gained when
It’s easy look this course is still going to be easy even if the wind does pick up so you’re going to have to go low still 10% in birdies or better gained when it’s easy in the last portion of the scoring part of the mixed condition model this week 5% in bogey
Avoidance we went through the prior leaderboards Monday night in the data dive show and the more consistent results were in the bogey avoidance the higher raw numbers the higher totals were in the birdies are better gained so that’s why they’re getting a higher percentage but I don’t I I I think it’s
Correct you do not want to avoid avoid or ignore bogey avoidance so 5% in bogey avoided when it’s easy and you can see again 25% of my mixed condition model is using the filter easy to par so if this doesn’t play easy I’m going to be weak
In that regard so a lot of the mixed condition model inherently is based on whilei playing easy this week 10% in good drives gained on short courses I started this week thinking that I wasn’t going to use anything from this page view in fantasy National just
Like I didn’t use anything last week at kaaloa then we looked at the prior leaderboards and good Jers gained was pretty consistent and then we went to Microsoft Xcel looked at the specific data around Yi and good drives gained has in has gradually increased in importance year over year the past 5
Years so 10% in good drives gained on short courses I used the short course filter as opposed to the easy coar filter I didn’t want to go entirely into the easy to par filter so I hedged a little bit and used the short course filter for good drives
Gained 5% in total procs I did not feel comfortable after looking directly at the 150 to 175 and 175 to 200 did not feel comfortable looking at those um ranges by themselves considering they didn’t seem to um lend themselves to high-end success instead I just saw more in terms
Of total procs now certainly the most important ranges here at Yi are 150 to 175 again we can look at that in the course breakdown very quickly the most most uh prominent approach shots here at wli fall from 150 to 200 but again I did not see direct correlation between top
End or Elite Performance and those specific ranges so I stuck to 5% on total PRS now the rest of the mixed condition model 35% is left and it’s going to be very very strange what’s left but let’s let me explain that I really wanted to emphasize this we’ve talked about it all
Week how important par fours are even though there are four par 3s still at Yi and three of those four fall between 175 and 200 they didn’t really in the end they didn’t really matter just like the specific ranges of proximities didn’t uh equate to high-end
Success neither did the par 3es so so no par 3s here and that’s another area where I could in fact be weak if par 3s do matter if they do I think it’s going to be the 175 to 200 length par 3s but I don’t have any par 3s and you’ll notice
I don’t have any par fivs there are only two par fivs here at wly um they both seem to uh lend themselves equally in terms of the amount of importance and another reason why I didn’t want to do any par fivs let me go to the par five tab here very
Quickly this will be the best example I can give you if we sort on performance on par fives you see Stephan joerger here is 11th but there are only two par FS here at wly 0 to 500 and a 500 to 550 look at his performance in those two ranges they’re actually pretty
Mediocre Stephan jger is better at longer par fivs but Yi doesn’t have any so instead of putting 5% in each of these par fivs we would be putting 5% for one hole essentially on each of these par fivs I did not think that was correct to do so there’s no par fives we
Are just solely focused excuse me on the par Force 20% from 400 to 450 15% from 450 to 500 10 of the 12 power fours fall to this range and historically the 400 to 450 have contributed slightly more than the 450 to 500 to Upper leaders or you know
Upper leaderboard success at Yi so that’s why the edge to the 400 to 450 so there’s a look at the mixed condition model the reasoning why I have and don’t have some metrics in there hopefully I’ve given you a good idea of some ways that this mixed condition model could
Fall short could be weak again no par 3es no par FIV if they happen to uh contribute a whole lot in terms of success I am really banking on while I still playing easy this week so if it doesn’t I’ll be very weak to that I don’t foresee around the green playing a
Factor if it does I’ll be weak I don’t foresee off the te playing a factor if it does I’ll be weak so there’s the mixed condition model for the Sony this week so let’s go ahead and go to the reveal of my rankings and my rankings go
As such number one this week is Russell Henley number two Alex noren Brian Harmon Adams Vincent and JT Poston round at my top five Chris Kirk Ben on ludvick Oar Brenan Todd and Adam hadwin round out my top 10 quick reminder for those who have watched the show before or for new
Viewers for your information my rankings are based on three criteria the fgc rank which is a straight uh ranking based on the mixed condition model that we just covered I do attempt to give players a course value which is a an attempt to um rate how well a player has played
The course that specific course in the past five years you see someone like ludvic obar is blank he has not played while before or at least in a competitive round so that’s why you see a blank there the lower the number the better and being DFS we are trying to
Find unique options compared to the rest of our fellow contestants in these big gpps in DFS in general so percent owned or projected ownership also factors into my rankings of course the lower projected owned player the higher they will rise all right uh in terms of my
Top 10 look I don’t really have a lot in terms of a surprise here you might be a little bit surpris by Alex norin the guy demolishes par fours and he is the number two putter on F uh average and fast Bermuda greens he has one poor statistic of those that we’ve collected
It was in proximity there’s only 5% he’s the number one bogey avoider when around is easy love Alex norin this week no real surprise about Russell Henley he has always generally played W very well of course finishing second two years ago should have won uh kind of fell off at
The back nine and let Hideki catch him but he’s also a former winner way back in 2013 here at Wy Brian Harmon has played well here Vincent has played well here in three uh tries Chris Kirk’s always played well here louic obber you see even though he is getting hurt by the
Fact that he has never never played here he’s number two analytically and I don’t understand why he’s at 12% projected ownership so I would be curious to hear from Gabe who uh uses more than just fantasy fantasy National in terms of ownerships um where he sees some of
These players so feel free to jump in chat Gabe and and correct me or correct what you see I just use fantasy National I I see I think o bear is going to be really good this week I mean number four and number one in the two ranges of par
Fours and he’s been pretty good on average and fast Bermuda greens small sample size but he’s been pretty good uh Brennan Todd has played well a little bit I think the probably the biggest shock for me me in my top 10 is Adam hadwin considering he’s not played well
Here he’s getting helped by the fact that he is at least per fantasy national uh not um not very popular not very popular all right so there’s a look at my top 10 enough rambling there let’s go ahead and sort on this price board and figure out where
Our best pivots are going to be who are some of the players we might want to fade uh and so on so in the 10ks in the five digits we have four players this week the A4 mentioned ludic Oar at 105 Terell Hatton at 10,300 Matt Fitzpatrick
At 102 SE tala at 10,000 even you see one player in the 10ks that is completely uh uh distant in terms of rankings from the others it’s Matt Fitzpatrick for whatever reason the uh fantasy National did not like him analytically based on the metrics that we gathered he’s not been the best at
The short par Forge his irons haven’t been all that great lately either um and when it’s been easy I’ve mentioned this before and that’s why I was kind of off of him at kaaloa I more look at Matt Fitzpatrick when it’s difficult he actually doesn’t play all that well you know against
Others um relatively speaking when it’s easy so Fitzpatrick is going to be a pretty big fade for me I don’t know how much of a um limb that’s going out on since he’s only at 10% right now Terrell Hatton is your most projected owned player in the 10ks at 155% per fantasy
National makes a lot of sense he’s a good putter which is what you have to have here at Yi number three in these long par fours doesn’t have a bad statistic it doesn’t doesn’t have any statistic that’s red so generally pretty solid um approach has actually been his
Worst uh as well I’m okay with that but if ludc obar is indeed 3% more unique than Terrell Hatton just give me all the ludvic obar I can take I doubt that’s the case I would project or I would expect ludvic obar to be anywhere in the probably 17 to 20
% that would be my guess I can just go by what fantasy National has so I really like Oar this week I’ve I tried to find ways to to fade him in the fall he always proved me wrong most uh most famously so the win at the RSM look the
Few rounds he’s played in the win suppos supposedly haven’t been good his irons supposedly haven’t been good I know he did not have a very good cap uh very good Century at caloa debutant tend to struggle there generally speaking I really like ludvic Oar this week so I’m
Going to make him as as you would think my Top Choice in the 10ks Cala should be fine again much like Matt Fitzpatrick he kind of struggles when it’s easy but at 9% I don’t hate sah tagala this week hon will be fine he’s just going to
Be very popular my guy took the week off relying on fantasy National okay yeah absolutely um so it looks like you and I are going to be looking at the same same data and trying to uh project off of that which I don’t know if how you feel
But if if indeed ludvic obar is this much more unique than Terrell Hatton I I’m just all in on Oar if that’s the case I imagine he’ll be a little bit more popular than that but I also think Terell Hatton will be more than 15.5% so I like tagala he along with
Obar is number one in these longer par 4S to see tala has been a very good putter on Bermuda so I like tagala but I in the 10ks I will go Oar first by a pretty wide margin see toala second I will go Terrell Hatton third and it’s not like I
Don’t and I do like Terrell haton I just don’t like this ownership this is more of a play on the ownership as opposed to the player and then I am out on Fitzpatrick I mostly target him when it’s difficult and as I’ve mentioned a couple times I
Still foresee why I playing easy this week so there’s a look at the 10ks let’s move to the nines Brian Harmon Cory Connors Eric Cole Russell Henley Chris Kirk will Al Tores JT Poston and thei you got several players in in the 9ks this week which I would think would tend
To lend itself to having a lot of balance builds be built this week so and I’m right there with them I’m going to be having my fair share of balanced builds but I think contrar contrarian with oar is going to be a pretty strong play but in the 9ks look
Number one player Russell Henley not going to get away from him this is chalk I will happily eat number one on these shorter par fors for all of the talk about him being you know kind of shaky with the putter he’s been pretty good on Fast and average Bermuda greens he like
Terrell Hatton does not have a red statistic in fact 31st 31 Is His Highest his worst statistic eigh in irons top 10 in Opportunities number one good drives gained player on short courses I really really like Russell Henley this week I will eat that chalk Brian Harmon players
Fine just like with Terrell Hatton I don’t like this ownership I try to play Harmon when he’s contrarian um chalky Brian Harmon just doesn’t feel good same with Cory Connors chalky Cory Connor just does not feel good especially since the putter can be very very bad but you cannot ignore the
Amount of success that Cory Connor has had here at Wy three top 15s and a Podium finish a third is very hard to ignore use Cory Connor at your own risk it’s a good play I don’t blame you for doing it um but that’s a lot of ownership he is
The most projected owned player per fantasy National Eric Cole should be fine again very very popular I would think but I think it’s fine I’m just so high on Russell Henley I have most confident and Russell Henley that I will use Henley more than than everyone else around him Chris Kirk
Should be should be good even with the with the win at kaaloa he’s always played Yi well I don’t expect that to change although you have a good enough reason to avoid Chris Kirk if you think the win at kaaloa that hangover uh effect if you will from the previous win
That’s a good enough reason to fade him if you if you want look your guess is as good as mine on Will’s Al torus uh coming back his first official event off of his injury I know he played the Hero World Challenge didn’t particularly play
It well I don’t put a whole lot of stock into that I’m I’m just going to wait on Wills Al torus and see what what he’s like um so if I’m if I miss on him I accept that risk I accept losing to Will’s Al torus uh because I just don’t
Know where he’s at poston’s going to be very very popular a good play a good play one that I would be comfortable using a few times and Hideki uh I just I don’t know he’s he’s one here two years ago he plays well here generally we haven’t heard anything
About his his nagging injuries or the withdrawal risk he does not putt well here even though he did so in 2022 generally speaking does not putt well here he hasn’t been good on these short par fours I don’t know I just I don’t I don’t think I want much of Hideki but
That is a dangerous fade I’m going to have so in the 9ks I’m going to use a whole lot of Russell Henley eat that chalk I will use some JT Poston that is some chalk I will eat I’ll have some Eric Cole I’m going to try to limit my
Use of Brian Harmon and Cory Connor a lot those two players I do not like much at all when they are popular uh but but Cory Connor is hard to ignore with the amount of success he’s had at Wy moving into the 8ks won’t there isn’t actually that many Ben
On sewu Kim Cam Davis Denny McCarthy Harris English Justin Rose Stephan joerger Adam hawin and Keegan Bradley um you have a couple of players here like Justin Rose he’s never played Wy the anal ICS love him you know very good on these short par fours good enough
Putter that’s a whole lot of ownership for Justin Rose he had one very good day at kaaloa yes it was Sunday it was the getaway day so you think he might carry that momentum here Rose is probably a fade for me um I just I there’s there’s
Too much noise in terms of you know lack of opportunity these bogey avoidance when it’s easy he kind of struggles with and that’s going to kill you this week so I’m going to fade Justin Rose um I want to like Jagger but it’s very lukewarm I would be much more
Comfortable um if par FS mattered as as I highlighted right before going to the mixed condition model or during the mixed condition model no thanks on Keegan I generally try to focus on him at or on bent surfaces Adam hin rated 10th and he’s very unique okay maybe I like Denny McCarthy he’s
Generally played respectable here I do expect a big jump this year at some point whether that’s a win or contending uh much more this year that very well could happen here at at at w at the Sony as much as high as I am on Cam Davis for
The Year this is another tournament that I just I might I’m just not there with him he does perform well on par fors that putter I much more want to use him on say bent and po ana um or bent surfaces he also hasn’t given himself a lot of opportunities he
Struggled quite a bit at the century so I don’t like his form Ben on will be popular probably for good reason I don’t want any part of SEI wo just no thanks so in the 8ks um I’ll probably use some hadwin just because he is so
Unique Ben on I’ll have a little bit I’ll be using quite a bit of Denny McCarthy English probably not Jagger very little this is kind of an area of the price board I haven’t been and again talking about being being contrar and building these louik obar
Type lineups been kind of kind of away from the 8ks a little bit but we’ll get into the lineups a little bit later moving into the upper sevens look I’m all in on Alex norin if he does not play well I will lose I really like Alex
Norin this week um he’s played y well in the past sub 10% like him a lot I also like Brennan Todd I don’t know why he’s only at 12 and a half percent um everything looks like it should be a good a full go for Brennan Todd uh very
Good putter on uh in general and on fast and average Bermuda greens loves shorter par fours um B to might not be the best at going low extremely low when it’s easy I don’t foresee that being a problem this week I I I like Bren and
Todd this batia might be a strug as much as as much as P last week Community member P shouted out bti as the top debutant and looked like a great shout for the first three days I don’t think I feel all that good about Patia this week um especially since putting is so
Important here he just has not shown consistent strides with the putter especially on Bermuda he’s more of a POA putter Vinson I think is going to be very good he’s going to be very chalky this is more chalk I’ll eat Lucas Glover is going to be a fade I know he’s 12th in
My rankings supposedly Lucas Glover is going to be a big fade it’s all about the Putter and he is the number one iron player here I think those irons are going to cool off I don’t foresee him staying that hot with the irons um he does play extremely well
When it’s easy so that’s uh that’s a little bit of a dangerous fade for me but I I just can’t stomach a 15 or 16 plus per Lucas Glover just no thanks I will gladly go somewhere else and try to find a little bit of uniqueness
Hogy I don’t love but 7% is is pretty good that’s really about it in the upper sevens I’m just so all in on Alex noren I think Brit Todd will be good you don’t want to ignore Matt coocher he’s had a lot of success here he’s he rates quite
A bit lower than I would have expected him to he hasn’t been as good on these shorter par fours but ignore Matt coocher at your own risk he has played very well here I’m going to use Vinson probably use a touch of Tom hogi that’s really about it in terms of the upper
Sevens um going into the mid and low sevens I like Andrew putam quite a bit the number one putter on average and fast Bermuda greens you also see he plays the longer par for is the 450 to 500 power fors very very well he’s actually been very good with his irons
As well so I I like Andrew putam if I get 10% on Andrew putam I’d be pretty darn happy Mitchell is interesting especially since he is All or Nothing uh I believe he is three for five in making the cut here at the Sony at the past five years
Three top 20 finishes and two miscuts so it’s quite literally all or nothing if you if you like what you see if you think the course is going to be a little bit more difficult than what I do I would take a look at Keith Mitchell I
Think I’m going to have to be out because I have it so easy this week Ben Griffin I like Ben Griffin a lot in the lower Sevens at 74 not too worried about his short Par Four performance look at the putter the other length of par fours
Is very strong and he’s been good he’s been pretty darn good when it’s easy 34th 36th and 49th across those three scoring metrics when it’s easy so I like Ben Griffin a lot of uh a lot of those in the industry are taking a look at Adrien
Deont de shart I think is how you say it I’ll just call him Adrian um I don’t have anything on him just like will zuris I’m going to wait on Adrian and see how well he plays if he plays well I will be happy
To be late on him but I just don’t have anything on him I’m I’m anxious to see what he’s like moving else or moving elsewhere into the low sevens look if you’re talking about putting you got to think about Nick Taylor I know this is Bermuda
It’s not as best surface you still got to think about Nick Taylor I know he doesn’t rate out very well for me but anytime a tournament is focused on putting think about Nick Taylor it’s going to be a great story if Gary Woodland plays well coming off of
His brain surgery just like zot Torres just like Adrien uh deont I’m just going to wait and see where he is going to wait and see where Gary Woodland is off of his injury two players three players in the very very low sevens that I want to highlight for you all Alex small
Yes you will have to stomach a very very very poor putter um it is what it is he’s just not a very good putter the short par fors are good fifth in irons second in Opportunities top 20 and birdies are better gained even with that poor putter when it’s easy you just
Got to pray for a field average week on on the greens for Alex SMY I will do that this week week I do think Alex SMY will give himself a lot of opportunities just got to hope that the putter is there seeing Alex SMY at 4 and a half% I
Love love seeing that so I’ll take a lot of Alex SMY tlor Montgomery actually is somebody to take a look at even though he rates so low he played extremely well here last year a very good putter third and birdies are better gained it’s a it’s basically about the
Easy courses for Taylor Montgomery so take a look at him I like SMY more I like a couple other players more but I figured I would mention him since he did finish 12th here last year last two in the low Sevens at 7,000 even both Ben Kohl’s and
Sh Kim love both of these players excuse me love both of these players less than 5% on Ben CO’s less than 2% on shkm you see both of them play the short par fors exceptionally well shkim plays both lengths of the power fours exceptionally well if I were to scroll
Down and you could see it but shkim playing the Par Four is extremely well and that’s enough for me to get on his bandwagon especially at 2% projected ownership I’m not worried about the irons they should be good but for Ben Kohl’s look at the irons pretty darn good look at Ben kohls’s
Performance when it’s been easy 32 26 and 44 you love that so these are the two players that I’m going to stick a lot of uniqueness with I will lose if these players don’t play well Ben CO’s and Sh Kim I’m going to be using a lot
And that probably tells you the types of lineups I’ve been building moving into the 6ks there are two to three players I would like to mention for you all cuz no one’s getting a whole lot of love down here the one mostly which makes a lot of sense
Because he has had a tie for 12 and a runner up last year Hayden Buckley you see the course value he’s been very very good here a lot of that’s around the putting not a whole lot else though has been good for Hayden Buckley and least in terms of the metrics that I
Use in my mix condition model I figured I would mention him but who I want to highlight for you all first let’s start with Ryan Moore he has not played well here at all he is 0 for four at Yi so let’s get that out of the way but
Everything to the metrics say he should be pretty good third in these very short par fours he’s top 20 in four 50 to 500 par fours he just loves part the par fours of this length uh good luck this week Gabe I really appreciate you jumping into chat again apologies that I
Wasn’t able to to get into yours due to the scheduling conflict I will be there next week that is a promise um Good Luck this week Gabe um and if you haven’t subscribed to his article I suggest you do so it’s a very good read it’s a great way to start
Your um preparation every week um but thanks for staying up later than you normally do Gabe really appre appreciate it good luck this week but Ryan Moore top 10 and also in with with the irons love Ryan Moore this week so take a look at him if you are dropping into the 6ks
The other name that I want to mention and this is this is admittedly the mad scientist you’re going crazy if you’re trying to get the most greedy of greedy lineups in there all the way down at 6200 he rided out top 15 for me Justin low eighth uh great stream tonight I
Appreciate it appreciate it thanks Gabe Justin low at 6200 eighth in these shorter par fours he also 32 in the longer par fours he’s not a disaster with the putter 21st in approach where Justin low can get off track is in these good drives gain he can take himself out of some holes
Obviously he’s not going to he can’t do that if he’s going to play well so that’s the issue with Justin low but in the most greedy of lineups I don’t hate Justin low at 6,200 if you’re trying to fit in a couple of 10ks or maybe a 10 and a
Couple of 9ks cuz he’s going to be unique the putter won’t be an abject failure I don’t think and he loves these shorter par fours that are prev at Yi so there’s a look at the price board how I see a lot of the ownerships where some great pivots and Fades are
Let’s move to making some lineups we’re going to start with those who play tiers contests so in tiers tier one we have ludvic obar Terrell Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick it very easy for me again I can just only go by the projected ownerships of a Classics cont of a
Classic contest give me louic be it’s not particularly close I don’t want really any part of Fitzpatrick if you think Oar and Hatton are comparable in terms of ownerships you could think about Hatton but I still will take Ludi obar in terms of tier one tier two seah tagala Brian Harmon Cory
Connors Eric Cole and Chris Kirk I actually don’t hate tala even though he’s the lowest rated of these players um Connor is going to be your safe play your very high floor your very low ceiling cuz he’s going to be one of the most popular players in tier
2 I don’t hate tagala because he should be the the most unique Oar uh yeah I I guess I’ll just go with Connor or excuse me I’ll go with tagala in tier two and that’ll be kind of my um my uniqueness my home run play if you will tier three Russell Henley
Wills alores JT Poston Hideki and CWU Kim uh there you go don’t care Russell Henley I don’t care if he’s the most popular player in all of tier contest give me Russell Henley I’m all in on Russell Henley this week tier three no questions asked I don’t hate posting but
I’m just so much higher on Henley it’s it’s not close tier four Ben on Cam Davis Denny McCarthy Harris English Justin Rose Stephan joerger Keegan Bradley uh I’ll take Denny McCarthy he can always light it up and I do expect some some solid performance here Harris English also isn’t a bad a
Bad option but I’ll take Denny McCarthy in tier four tier five Adam hadwin Alex noren Brendan Todd OA batia Matt coocher Adams Vincent and Lucas Glover I’m going to take Alex norn it’s not particularly close if you are a big proponent on uh prior course history or having played
The course well before then you want to want to take a long look at coocher or zincon in that case I don’t hate either I think I would take zinon in that case but give me Alex norin I think brenon Todd is also useful there’s four really
Good options in tier five just highest on Alex noren finally tier six we have Gary Woodland Alex SMY Ben Kohl’s sh Kim Davis Thompson Austin ekro and Mark hubard boy I really I started off thinking I was going to take Alex SMY and then Ben Kohl’s and Sh Kimmer there
Oh the worry about Alex SMY is that putter so he I mean he could take himself out of the tournament with that putter which is going to kill you in a tears contests so I think it’s between Kohl’s and Sh Kim I’ll take I’ll take sh
Kim I think I think it’s pretty much one a and one B here but I’ll take sh Kim so again quick recap tiers contest uh from the show tonight I’ll go Oar to Gala as my home run unique play uh tier three is Russell Henley no questions
Asked tier four is Denny McCarthy don’t hate Harris English but I’ll take McCarthy tier five is uh Alex noren tier six I will take sh Kim Ben CO’s is a very close 1B all right let’s go to classic contest in our big gpps first thing we’re going to want to do let’s
Figure out the chalky lineups that uh we expect to see quite a bit in our big gpps and we’ll try to maneuver ourselves around that so it looks like if we’re going to build these chalky lineups they’re going to be going balanced going looking at something like Cory Connor’s
I’ll use Chris Kirk only because I’m so high on Russell Henley but this very well could be a Cory Connor’s Russell Henley start and you see they’re going to be looking into building much more of a balanced build so you’re coming down to Justin Rose at
88,200 uh at 77 is Adams vincon who I don’t mind it’s just very chalky uh this could very well be Lucas Glover as well not not too much Beyond Andrew putam at 10% is getting played so in fact we might have to drop down a little bit here and go JT
Poston um and bottom this out at Andrew putam who’s at 10% it actually might be a little bit higher Andrew putam Lucas Glover Adams Vincent that leaves 88,200 which is Dustin Rose so 16% matching in your big gpps this is gross this is probably one of the more
Common lineups that you’ll that you’ll probably see or something very similar to it Connor’s obvious play it’s a good play but obvious play JT Poston Adams Vincent don’t want any part of this there’s no problem with having you know one of these guys maybe even two of
These guys in a lineup which you can’t put all these guys together it’s going to be way too chalky if our fellow contestants are going stars and scrubs you’re probably going to see something to the effect of Terrell Hatton if they drop down into the lower
Sevens Rio hits atsun Nick Taylor at 10% we’ll bottom them out at at Nick Taylor uh if they go Terrell Hatten let’s go they went all the way down to JT posting I’ll try Chris Kirk might have to squeeze in a little bit more into this lower sevens here let’s see that’s
There’s Taylor at 98 I used putam last time maybe spawn at 76 perhaps could be getting a look let’s see after Chris Kirk you’re looking at uh let’s throw Bren and Todd into this you could go we’ll say Vincent 7400 I don’t know if anyone at
74 is getting a whole lot of love doesn’t look like it um well Griffin’s really only at 7% I’ll throw putam just understand this is a 100 over so maneuver that $100 around a little bit but you can see this is where the contrarian strategy is this
Week it’s in these stars and scrubs lineup the more you’re willing to go lower in the price board the more contrarian you’re going to be but this is this looks like a potentially chalky is Stars and scrubs lineup with Hatton you know Chris Kirk maybe dropping down
To I mean we use post and I’m trying to use different names maybe Ben on could be another option for people there and then they maneuver the rest of this money around but fair looking like a fairly chalky SARS and scrubs there so how are we going to
Maneuver around all of this chalk well I’m telling you if you’re going to build a balanced lineup it’s going to be it’s going to be a challenge especially since there’s not a lot in the eights that I like other than perhaps been on Denny McCarthy a little bit so in a balanced
Construction I’m still going to start with Russell Henley and he’s very popular but that’s where I’m going to go I’m just extremely confident in it and then I would come down to maybe a JT Poston I really don’t want to use Hideki if I don’t have
To again I’m going to wait and see on Will’s Al Taurus so you can you can see where your your issue is in building balance lineups is you’re going to start off pretty darn chalky and you’re going to have to find a lot of uniqueness very very quickly we’ll go Russell
Henley and Chris Kirk uh it’s not great actually yeah let’s let’s back that off we can go to Denny McCarthy here go 96 and then drop all the way down to 84 at leaves us 8,000 per player we can hover around this 8,000 area again Harris English I don’t hate not in
Love with it don’t hate it Adam hadwin at 8,000 is somebody you can look at who’s very unque uh rated out 10th for me I don’t think i’ would have him quite that high but very good putter on the on Fast and average Bermuda speed greens loves shorter par
Fors you know lot to like here with Adam hadwin and then other players that I’m very high on you know Alex noren I’d go there you can probably go Adams Vincent now that we’ve gotten a lot of the uniqueness in here leaves us 8,400 per you know go where you’re comfortable
Here maybe it is Harris English maybe it is maybe you like a Justin Rose you know a little bit higher here in terms of percentage at you know just under 133% you could probably go to Stephan Jagger and keep it right at 11 is you’re looking at a mostly probably
Unique lineup thanks to the combination of hadwin and norin McCarthy but you see the difficulty in building these balance lineups you’re going to be matching more than likely some other lineups in your big gpps and that’s why I have really really tried to give you ideas for some stars
And scrubs and if oar is indeed this much more unique than Terrell Hatton just all in on ludvig Oar I’ll go Oar and I will go I’ll throw Eric Cole into this this would be Russell Henley for me but I’ll throw Eric Cole in this just to
Gain a little bit of that uniqueness factor and to throw in some different names uh Alex noren again would be in this uh we could maybe do a bin on I’ll throw in brenon Todd I think he’s I think brenen to will play well this week but you see we’ve got
7,300 per player and at the bottom it’s the two guys that I highlighted right at 7,000 sh Kim and Ben Kohl’s uh 5% 2% you know we’re at 7900 here for a player and we’re not even close to that magic 10% number I mean use basically who you
Want I use Todd you can throw in zinon throw in coocher he’d be if you’re especially if you’re a big believer in Prior course performance you could take a look at Matt coer you’re at a sub 10% projected own lineup you’re looking at more than likely a unique lineup in a
G big gpp if it is duplicated it’s not very often and that’s where that’s where a lot of the potential for massive amounts of success lie this week is in these um is in these stars and scrubs if you want to get extremely greedy as I mentioned there are a couple
Of 6K plays we can look at I highlighted Ryan Moore for you all at 6700 you can go all the way down to Justin low at 6200 I’m going to use Justin low only because I’m going to try to get as greedy as possible in this so this would
Be Oar this will be Terrell Hatton although I don’t actually you know what let’s throw in sah tagala I don’t think tagala I think tala will play fine this week again I’m going to be greedy I’m going to try Russell Henley could be Chris Kirk might be a little bit too
Expensive but let’s um let’s see let’s go with Russell Henley maybe JT Poston oh yeah you can do something like Oar Henley Poston or Oar Cole uh matama a or Oar Henley Kirk maybe just load up at the top here because you’re going all the way down to the 6200 for
Low you got 7,300 per player you can still come up to 7600 if you’re at a JJ spawn if you’re at a Tom hogy Andrew putam should be fairly good I’ll throw B Griffin into this I think Ben Griffin will be good this week leaves us 7200 to
Round out this uh very greedy lineup Nick Taylor I know he doesn’t rate out well for me but I think Nick Taylor is going to be good Alex small at 7,100 I really like 10% again right at that magic 10% number you’re looking at more than likely a unique lineup if it is
Duplicated it’s not very often you’ve got two maybe even three of the tournament favorites here so that is where you’re going to be gaining a lot of Leverage on your fellow contestants if you’re willing to go stars and scrubs and especially if you’re willing or the lower you’re
Willing to go in the price board especially if you’re willing to drop into 6ks you’re going to gain a lot of Leverage on your fellow contestants um but that’s what I have for you all tonight looks like there were a few votes so we have one um vote for
Excellent in terms of how well the century players perform this week and the majority here is in good so contenders and a few top 20s I think I would tend to agree with that one you’ll probably have a couple of contenders and of maybe three or four more top 20s is
What my guess will be on performance from the century players my one done pick for the week that starts this week I’m going to take Russell Henley uh I’m not going to over complicate it the first week of the oneandone contest just give me Russell Henley I’m very
Confident that he’s going to play well may even win it uh but I I I’m confident that he will play well and uh and make some money um so with that that is the show this evening thanks to Gabe for jumping in chat much appreciated thanks to
Everyone else out there there who tuned in watch listen and supports the channel whether that’s liking the videos commenting subscribing participating in the uh in the poll uh question uh I always appreciate all the support uh love what I do taking an in-depth look at sports
Statistics uh and trying to help us all win a little bit of money in the process uh reminder that next week calls calls will be back on regular Showtime especially for Wednesday so 9 p.m. Eastern uh the usual schedule of course Sunday Monday and Wednesday initial research data dive and DFS tactics
Thanks again for all the support for all the Wagers you have made this week for the Sony Open for all the DFS contest you play this week for the Sony Open for this weekend and every weekend may all your bets be profitable
