2024 Sony Open Picks, Research, Course Preview, Guess The Odds | 60s Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo provides the preview and make early 2024 Sony Open Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
00:45 One and Done
2:25 60s Breakdown
3:26 Course & Stats
10:51 History
19:58 Field
26:15 Key Stats + Stat Model Results
30:35 Past 50 Rounds
38:08 Comp Courses
42:27 Guess The Betting Odds

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Ofo experience experience Experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience research for the Sony Open in Hawaii the picks the course preview guessing the odds for the week we’re going to be doing the entire walkthrough on fantasy national.com as always fantasy national.com Mayo will get you 20% off any membership level great time

To start using it for DraftKings lineups and your research or outright betting because we got a fun event I love this event cuz it feels like the real start of the PGA Tour to me 144 players There’s an actual cut and it has a bunch

Of goobers who I love to bet on who absolutely never win but you know I like to at least think that they have a chance to win this time around but the big thing right now is the oneandone the one and done is almost full there are

850 spots remaining as of this recording it’s going to be a lot less by the time time that Monday comes along and Jeff and I are doing the show however I am giving away two free entries on Monday show so there’s still time to get into

Those way number one that you can do that plus really help us out in this regard go to Apple podcast or Spotify or both to get two ballots into that draw subscribe to the pat Mayo experience audio podcast turn on auto downloads that’s really the big key here uh as is

Leading the five star rating rating and review five stars boom you’re in that draw it takes less than 30 seconds to do both so I would recommend that you do both because it really does help us out and you might win a draw into it again I’ll be releasing that winner with

Fineberg on Monday or if you just want to go get your spot buy your spot right now go do that screenshot your entry to me on Twitter at thepme and it will just make you eligible for a second entry you know it’s worth 200 bucks you might as

Well do it if you’re signing up anyway now is the time and you don’t want to miss out people complain every single year whoa I waited too long to sign up I’m telling you you don’t have much more time to go sign up than right now cuz

It’s almost full all right before I dig too deep into the Sony Open one thing that I wanted to do for the people that don’t want to stick around for a 45 minute show is and I probably won’t ever do this again based on the amount of

Takes that it took me to actually get this right but a one minute preview The Lazy Man’s version of what is going on at the Sony Open 5 seconds on the clock please let’s go Sony Open in Hawaii is played at wly Country Club just a shade

Over 7,000 yard in length Bermuda grass greens par 70 very difficult to hit Fairways but the rough is pretty minimal so it really doesn’t matter if you hit the fairways or not and it is the only course on the PGA tour which had its own N64

Game whyly golf nine of the past 11 winners had played at capala the week before there are 38 players from the sentury in the field this week of 144 it’s the first cut event of the 2024 season and we’re seeing a slew of players maybe from the DP World Tour

Graduated from the corn faery tour or have just been Grinders on the PGA tour for a while plus we get the returns of mad mcney will zot Taurus and Gary Woodland for this event almost any skill set plays long off the tea short off the

Te you need to be dialed in with your irons and make a ton of putts it’s going to be a birdie fest with the winning score lingering somewhere aroundus 20 and there it is in its what is it 64bit Glory the wildy country club this is

Going to be a fun preview I really shouldn’t have taken so much time I had time on a Saturday so I decided to edit all this crap together probably don’t expect this sort of effort every single week but I had some fun with this one as mentioned before Wy Country Club par

77,000 44 yards Bermuda grass greens uh the average length of the par 3s there are four of them are 1992 yards seven holes on this course have a bogey rate north of 16% and three of them are the par 3s additionally there’s only one that actually I mean

There’s three of them over 190 yards if you’re really going to set your key factors on fantasy national.com the 175 to 200 range is where you want to be because the shortest one’s 176 and the longest one is 204 so it’s pretty good in that sense the par fours 12 of them

On the course 435 yards in average three of the four toughest holes on the course are front nine power fours and five holes have a bogey rate north of 18% four of them are within the first six holes on the front nine we take a look

At the scorecard a little bit later on you can see holes one two four and six are four of the six most difficult holes on the course where you’re going to beat this place up is on the power fives hole number nine and hole number 18 the two

Easiest holes they have a birdie rate north of 50% hole number nine has an eagle rate of almost 7% That’s more than double the bogey rate of 3% it’s pretty outrageous to tell you the truth number 18’s like the hard power five it has an eagle rate of 3% it doesn’t matter how

Long you hit the ball you’re going to be able to find the Green in two so whether you’re Brian Haron or you’re ludvig Ogar you’re going to have a chance to make some Eagles at this course so General Eagle rate I don’t want to see you throw

It out the window I think it is somewhat important some players are have listen if you hit the ball 340 yards down the middle of the Fairway and you have a pitching wedge left into some of the it’s going to be easier to make Eagle than doing what Hideki did when he broke

My heart when he beat Henley in 2022 by going like driver fivewood and sticking it to a foot for the nail in the coffin of every single Russell Henley ticket that was out there other notes about the course in general it’s the fourth longest serving host venue on the PGA

Tour the Honolulu course has been played every year since 1965 with the exception of 1970 when there was no event that Trails only Augusta National Colonial CC and Pebble Beach the other big thing is the crossover course that we’re looking at for here I mentioned it in the quick

Video but the big thing is Wy Colonial Sedgefield harbort toown Saw Grass to a lesser extent PGA National to a lesser extent just there’s so much water at those two courses there’s a lot of variance there mayakoba is obviously one too we’ve had a lot of people win at

Mayakoba and then the Sony Open within like 3 months of each other but mayakoba moved to live that is no longer the swing season Mexico event that we are used to at this course so let’s jump over to Fantasy national.com right now and check out

What we got going on on the scorecard as mentioned before you can kind of see the course layout as it pertains to the DraftKings scoring this week you can kind of see the wraparound doesn’t make that big of a difference I would say that guys playing the front nine do have

A better chance for daily Showdown for the actual there we go let’s Center that up on the frame a on the page a little bit easier there for the score card guys starting on the front have an easier go just because 8 n 10 you have a birdie

Rate of even 789 18% 15% 60% but the big thing is on the swing where if you start on number 10 you don’t get this wraparound the wraparound that you get uh starting on the back would be 18 which is super easy you’re probably going to make birdie or Eagle on that

Then you have two of the four hardest holes on the course with one and two where the wrap around the other way you can go 8 n 10 I mean 10 10’s not the easiest hole but it is the third most easy hole so if you do play from number

One you get the easiest hole and third easiest hole back to back where that’s not open to you if you start on number 10 so keep that in mind just as a little extra Edge for daily Showdown purposes if that’s the game that you want to play

This week as you can see you know putting an approach it’s just one of those courses where any skill set can win the shorter hitting accuracy guys who have good approaches in a hot putting week the Brian stewards of the world were always kind of live at this

Event we take a look at the past champions I mean there is a common link between them in courses that they play well at some of the ones that I did mention but that was kind of it in terms of everything else the one of the main

Reasons that you see a lot of that type of player do well at the Sony Open and this is one of the strongest Sony Open Fields I’ve ever seen from overall depth top to bottom and a lot of that has to do with some of the DP guys who

Graduated the PGA Tour some of the older guys who didn’t make the century that are trying to get back in the horel the web Simpsons the Stewart sinks like that tier of player and then you have a bunch of really good PGA Tour grads uh corn

Faery grads sorry that are coming in you see like 125 to 175 but mainly you know 150 to 200 is where the majority of the approaches are going to come from even on some of the part even on this actually the second par five you know

Being inside 200 yards is not all that crazy to think of taking a look at the historic cutline it was a minus one a year ago Min – 4 minus three the year before that this was the cam Smith year of 2020 which is a huge outlier he won

It minus 11 that year it was the highest winning score since VJ sing won in 2005 also at minus 11 because it’s a coastal course it had a ton of rain it had a ton of wind and it rarely actually becomes that wind influence but every few years

Or every 10 years or so it seems that the elements crop up and it makes it I mean it doesn’t make it hard it just makes it hard dur that the winning score is not going to be minus 23 it’ll still be double digits under power right

Around minus 20 is where you can expect it I mentioned the driving accuracy a little bit earlier only 53% versus 62% but it doesn’t really play a difference because look at the G percentage the green regulation percentage is still higher than your average PGA Tour event

So nothing really to sweat uh if your guys is not great at hitting the fair unless he like hits an OB or something like that H the other thing too is in a birdie Fest like this uh if we go to like the top five you can

See around the green becomes less and less pronounced just around the green at a place with smaller greens at at a birdie Fest if you’re missing Greens in regulation the chances of you making a ton of birdies unless you chip in every time is just very difficult so uh that

Would be not a route I would want to take never hurts to have good off the or good around the green game and to get lucky in that regard it’s just not that big of a deal here because you need to be two putting from distance one putting

Inside 15 feet and just not missing Greens in regulation average proximity to the hole just about the same as it normally is driving distance is way higher here than your average Torv and way higher three yards higher but guys can just grip it and rip it there’s no

Real penalties unless you find a fairway bunker like like I mentioned the rough is not penal whatsoever so it doesn’t really matter if you spray the ball around it does not become that big of a deal before we get into the field let’s take a look at some of the

History at this tournament tournament um as mentioned before sewo Kim is the defending Champion he is back I mean he’s almost completed the sewo slam of the courses that I kind of talked about SE has won at the Windam he has won at this course he’s won at the AMX at Pete

Die course he came second at Harbor toown that’s still on there but he wanton The Players Championship as well so the past few years we’ve seen SEI wo win at minus 18 hii won at minus 23 in 2021 Uh Kevin naw won at 2021 a guy who’s won

In the past also at Shriners another place where some of these guys play really well obviously he bolted for live so he is not here but that was a minus 21 cam Smith also bolted for live one in 2020 at minus 11 before the world shutdown and then in 2019 Matt coocher

Was the champion he had won at Maya COA earlier later late in the earlier in the season but late in 2018 I hit them both and that was probably the last two times I ever hit an outright winning bet that was really nice to go through through

And when we went for it so he had that he’s won it Memorial he’s won it the PLAYERS Championship a good sedge field record as well the year before that Patton kazy actually won both at Maya COA and one at the Sony Open minus 17 that year Justin Thomas and Ernie Ells

Are the only two players to win caloa and then win the next week at the Sony he won at minus 27 with a 59 in the first round in 2017 you know Jimmy Walker and Fabian Gomez won the year before that minus 20 minus 23 but let’s go back to last year

And really take a harder look at what happened Hayden Buckley came in second place Chris Kirk Andrew putam third and fourth place Ben Taylor David ipy and there’s Matt coocher Nick Taylor is another one I actually really like Nick Taylor this week he was I think he was

The 54 hole leader either last year the year before he just kind of melted down coming down the stretch but here’s how SEIU actually got it done last year he barely gained any Strokes putting it was all approach he led the did he lead the field and approach Yeah by over a full

Stroke over Ben Martin and then Troy Merritt who ended up coming in 32nd and 64th Place the next two guys fourth and fifth in The Strokes gain to approach rankings G fourth and third in the tournament that would be David lipsky and Chris Kirk that’s how they got it

Done the leaders in putting I mean putam only putted gained 10 imagine gaining 10.5 Strokes in a tournament putting and coming in fourth not winning because you were so bad everywhere else and he gained 2.4 chipping as well couldn’t drive couldn’t hit an approach but whatever benan is another one to look at

This week obviously I don’t know the results of what’s happening at capala he had a very good Saturday I have no idea where he’s going to finish up but he has someone who’s lingered on the leaderboard at Harbortown in the past he went 71 Holes without making a bogey at

The Windam one year and then melted down I believe that’s year that JT Poston ended up winning Poston another one who’s played well at Harbortown one at the wind played at the John Deere classic another player who should be on our Radars for this tournament because

That’s the type of guy guy that it is like when we’re thinking about the field yeah you got Fitz and Hatton and oar and Hideki that’s not Sheffer Xander morawa is it’s not the very elite of the elite it’s the next tier Down lead this

Field in terms of prestige so I think it is kind of open to a lot of players even deeper down the board it’s going to be very hard to trim down the list of four players or even five players this week which I’ve tried to make a concerted

Effort to do this season when it comes to my betting card so T green sewo was number one because of that approach and was just good everywhere else great with approaches above way above average around the green slightly above average putting slightly above average off the

Tea and that was good to go Connors Andrew Novak Nasty Nate Lashley and JJ spawn were next Hayden Buckley who came in second was sixth in Strokes gain T green uh SE as I mentioned a little bit earlier did not play in the sentury the week before he had a pair of 64s

Saturday and Sunday which earned him his win he’s won a bunch of times on the PJ tour if you’ve just bet sewo Kim in every tournament he’s ever played on the CG PGA Tour and that was the only bet you’ve ever made you’d be up a lot of

Money at the sports books if you only ever bet him to win events it sucks when he doesn’t do a ton a week over week over week but he just pops up and wins out of nowhere that’s the seiw Kim method he was the second best in

Proximity from 200 plus yards and while the putting wasn’t great cuz he missed a bunch of shorties he was the fourth best putter in the field from 15 to 20 ft which does make up for a lot of things uh 25 of the top 27 finishers gained

Strokes on the PE field on power fours from 400 to 450 yards where some of the most difficult ones end up coming in so if we just kind of scale back the year before and we go to 2022 that’s the year that Hideki ended up beating Russell

Henley in the playoff and we’re going to take a look at Strokes gained for that year as well and it was a little bit different how they did it because Hideki gained a ton on the the green so did Henley so did power so did Kevin kizner

That populated the very top but as you can see Hideki gained a bunch off the tea and he was still let’s see hii was fifth Tia green Glover was first Keegan was second Henley who came in second and lost in the playoff was third so Tia green was still very important as it

Came down to it Connors was inside the top 10 again dude comes like top 10 Tia green every year here and just kind of lingers with the top 15 so maybe it’s finally a breakout season at the Sony Open for Cory Connors evier was another one who actually performed pretty well

Tia green and Hayden Buckley who ended up coming second the year previous was you know he came 12th the year before gained a bunch T green so maybe looking back at T green historically at wly is a place there we want to go Hideki had played the week before at the century he

Came 13th so nothing crazy in a very small field he had a pair of 63s over the weekend so you had a pair of 64s from sewu Kim and that ended up propelling him to the win at minus 18 pair of 63s from Hideki comes in at

Minus 23 meaning that these guys weren’t winning going into the weekend so guys can come back and win at this tournament that’s not the craziest thing to think of he did run very hot with the putter as mentioned you can see that he was 1.3 Strokes better than anyone else in the

Field Henley was third hero English came 55th and came second in puttings we’ve seen that a few times now guys just Spike putting to keep them around that’s all they can really do at the tournament 11 players gained at least five Strokes on approach and 10 of them cash a top 20

Paycheck for the week and both Kim and matama were top 35 in Strokes gained off the te and round the green the season prior to their win at Sony and players who did that last year who are in the field we have Justin Rose Hideki sunjay I believe no sunj is actually not

Playing this event that’s mindboggling that sunj isn’t playing neither is fower so the guys who are in the field who have done it Justin Rose and Hideki are the only two who qual qualified for both of those this time around so that’s a look back at what happened last year the

Year previous and if we do just kind of scale out a little bit more and take a look at overall tournament history in terms of just Strokes gained you can see over the past five years Connors has been the best player he has finished inside the top 12 in all four of his

Starts with a peak of T3 in 2029 you need someone to finish exactly 12th apparently Cory Connors is the man for the job despite being cut twice over the course of the past years Matt coocher is second in total Strokes gained with a win in two t7s Hideki has made the cut

Each of the past five years with the win Chris Kirk Has Come third 27th second each of the past three years he’s good for fourth and overall Strokes gain total Ryan Palmer Andrew putam Russell Henley Stuart sink another Heritage winner by the way Kevin kizner won at

Colonial made a playoff at Windam made the play off at Saw Grass so and you can see the trend of types of players that come in to this tournament so he’s up there steeping out of the booth didn’t I’m going to be watching a ton of kizner

Over the weekend at caloa but early returns from people who have watched him say he was really good probably doesn’t want to criticize a bunch of his friends but uh Jeff and I will have a review for him on Monday while we give away those oneandone ticket winners you can see

Nick Taylor up there sewo Keith Mitchell who we are getting in the field Hayden Buckley he played the course twice second in T12 another big accuracy guy not a ton of distance so another reason to lean into that a little bit more worse players hubard has sucked at this

Tournament so as McCumber T dunks the gim Reaper which is weird cuz gim Reaper is usually good at Pete th courses I guess this one’s just a bit too easy list has sucked at this tournament over the years as is Rogers kittama you know made one cut cut the other time not a

Ton of experience for a lot of these guys but just take a look at ones who’ve kind of blown up a little bit Carson young some of my favorite oh yeah I forgot blae aana is in the field he sounds like an American Gladiator he is

From Hawaii though and he has a cool name so people will actually play him this week because of that the field overall taking a look is really strong as mentioned 38 players who played last week are going to be here but it’s not just them we’re getting a slew of others

Who are it’s not that you we’re not seeing them for the first time but like as I mentioned like horel is playing uh zot torus is back he played in the hero didn’t Faire very well but here we are he’s going to be fine uh Woodland is back after getting a lesion returned

From his brain removed from his brain happy to see Gary back used to play really well at this tournament over the years noren is back in the field who uh we got a slew of DP World Tour guys Bobby Mack Alex Bor wacky valami matchu

Pavon uh but the big one I think is going to be my guy I I mean eventually I’m going to learn how to say his name but Rio Hune is where I’m going to go with this uh he’s been great especially since winning the kazoo uh which I which was

In France earlier this year so we can kind of go to what he has been up to and it’s been fantastic for him over on the DP World Tour oh sorry that’s mty Schmidt some what I’m going to talk about a little bit later on there we are

Now the world’s number 76 ranked player you can see he goes from amateur to the PGA or to the DP World Tour after playing around a bunch but he’s just been on absolute fire basically I mean he was the number one believe he was the number one ranked amateur in the world I

Don’t want to out myself here someone doesn’t pay a ton of attention then it was Oar after it was this guy but realistically like when you take a look at what he has been up to um overseas like it’s it’s been really good just kind of like Australian Open eighth uh

The fortet Australian PGA t13 DP World Tour Championship t18 at the nedbank ninth Qatar Masters 21st you can see the kazoo open to France was his big win he played in the Zozo during the swing season came in six like that’s pretty impressive some other you know top 10 at

The Barra Auda earlier this year the maiden himmerland in Denmark not a lot of miscuts BMW PGA in the Irish open which were super strong fields on the DP World Tour he missed but it’s been a pretty good run for him since really becoming a solidified Pro like working

Your way up to play this well on the DP World Tour getting into this field like this is an absolute opportunity for him and as mentioned he’s the number 76 ranked player in the world like he’s not an absolute Jabron he’s not a scrub and he’s probably going to be pretty down in

The odd I’m guessing maybe he won’t be maybe he’s a known commodity going forward especially with guys that bet Europe a lot but I want to put him on the radar for a lot of people out there who may not know uh should be a good play this week uh additionally will

Zator Gary Woodland we’re also getting toasty Adrien Dumont de from Belgium he is the Belgium ludvig oel I love this guy I just love his name he won on the DP World Thor very easily Ben Kohl’s is playing mty Schmidt is the other one just to take a look again at what mat

Schmidt was up to I mean I clicked on the wrong one that time there we are take a look at what Schmidt has been up to I’ve just been tracking him for a while because he was supposed to be really good and really through the swing and in Europe basically the second half

Of the year he was really good came forth the Alfred Dunhill in South Africa which was just dominated by Liv dudes uh the week before the in the invisa set in South Africa he was t17 he was third uh in Bermuda he was second at the Spanish Masters on the DP

World Tour so he’s had some pretty high up finishes he almost won the barbasol a few years back melted down towards the end but you can see he was t22 at the Windom T20 at the 3M open t18 at the BMW International in Germany so he he was T6

At the American Express a year ago uh almost a year ago to the state missed the cut at this tournament I don’t know if he’s going to be like the guy for this tournament zman but he is also once again someone to just keep in the back

Of your mind as a player that could really break through this season like we always kind of give up on guys he’s a 26y old player uh and he has come inside the top five in tournaments in three of his past six starts not albeit not the greatest tournaments going but still

Pretty good nonetheless uh and he has these Spike performances he’s not going to be very high up in the odds he’s not going to be very high up in the DraftKings rankings other than that like Oar leads the field in terms of Strokes gain total over the past 24 rounds it’s

Oar I mean so this would be the recent Forum coming in but a lot of these I mean doesn’t include kaala stats because that tournament isn’t over yet as I am talking about it right now but the top 10 in terms of Strokes gain total Oar

Cole Cam Davis LC list JT Poston top five then you got Henley Vince Wy Harmon T TI dunks Tyler Duncan Ryan Moore I think got EVR Lucas Glover pendrith senson so a bunch of Canadians and then Alex noren who had a pretty good go of

The Swing season I bet bet on him like three times he didn’t win anything cuz he’s an absolute goober but he had a third he had a second at the Shriners which I kind of called out Butterfield Bermuda too another one where an RSM all ones that lean more into this skill set

Than something like the US Open for example um where you know it’s bombs away at all times if you are not a bomber unless you gain 15 Strokes putting you legitimately have no chance of winning the tournament so just to kind of take a look at that uh noren how

Has he played at this tournament over the years take a little Gander at this one I played it in 2020 that was the difficult year that Cameron Smith won came t32 so not a ton of experience but very good T to green one of the leaders

T to Green that year lost almost four strokes putting so maybe it is a time to go back to norn I don’t want to commit to anything until I see what the pricing is on a lot of these players um of note two the big Panda big Norm is the first

Alternate for this event Norm zong so he’s another one who graduated from the corn fairy tour we all loved him three years ago when he was like 13 years old or something like that but he could get into this tournament he’s listen he played really well on corn ferry so keep

Him uh to see if he gets into the field because he’d probably come in at like $6,400 on DraftKings and really be no different than a lot of guys down there as well custom model as made by me on fantasy national.com once again fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself 20%

Off save all your models we got some brand new tools dropping very soon in fact I am having a meeting with moose directly after recording this show to see how soon those tools are going to be released and how to use them and everything like that Sony Open this has

Been a solid one for me over the years you can see that Par Four 400 to 450 yards that I called out with both sewo and Hideki and a lot of the very top finishers at this tournament in that range is where we’re going to be so

Approach we have at 20% power for scoring overall at 15 we’re going to drop that down to 10 and boost up 400 to 4 50 to 10% as well so now we’ve allocated 40% of our model there eagles gained 5% opportunities gained 15% which are birdie or Eagle opportunities on the

Green or On The Fringe Strokes gained off the te 5% power fives 5% good drives gained is a stat that I actually like to call out a little bit more than I think a lot of other people do uh it doesn’t necessarily need to be a big one but

When you play at a course that doesn’t have a ton of made Fairways but it’s still a very High Greens in regulation percentage is exactly where I want to go with with almost half the approaches coming from the rough that green regulation percentage is still well

Above the event average for tour so in the Sony Sports a higher scrambling percentage than almost identical average proximity to the pin greens and regulation so good drives gained is a stat that outweighs Strokes gained off the tea for me this week is Strokes gain good drives gained good drives are

Drives where the player either hits the Fairway off the te or the player misses the Fairway but but still hits the Green in regulation or The Fringe so it’s a driving plus greens and regulation stat is essentially what it is which I want to see at this tournament I called it

That keyar 3 range earlier I got 10% on that and then putting 5 to 10 10 to 15 both at 5% each that equals itself out to be 100% I give it 100% and we’re good to go let’s load that in past 24 rounds and see what we got cooking in our stew

This time around at wly Country Club who’s going to be the leader is it going to be ludvig Oar because that’d be my guess it is not is the glove Lucas Clover because I bet you his numbers actually go back to his back-to-back wins does it oh yeah there we are Windam

And FedEx Cup I wonder if we went past 12 rounds we can take a look at that too if we do the RO if you ever want to look at the rolling report which I think is very handy to do to gauge shortterm versus long-term in the key stats that

You’re looking at just go to Rolling report and click custom model as the easiest way to do it but just as an overall the top 10 in terms of power rankings this week Glover senson Henley Oar Ryan Moore top five Eric Cole Justin Rose maybe this is a Rosy week JT Poston

JJ spawn and Cam Davis round out the top 10 other big names after that list matama gim mattye Schmidt there he is number 14 norin number 15 Harmon yab bombs R my guy Rio just call him Rio H at the moment because I want to stop sounding like an absolute [ __ ] he comes

Actually in 18th that doesn’t include any of his Japanese tour or DP World Tour starts just 16 rounds of the PGA Tour weighted average alone for here that’s pretty good Woodland it’s been a long layoff for him so we’ll see Keegan Connor Kirk Michael Kim Brenan Todd and

Callum Taran Brendan Todd you think would be perfect for this course one at Maya Koba having at least a very good first two rounds at capalo plays the short Bermuda courses really well but for whatever reason Sony’s kind of had his number gains a ton of Strokes

Putting but it’s the approach Play It’s the driving he’s never he’s finished he finished inside the top 20 twice 2014 and 2012 he’s a much better player now over the past five years than he was then but he just can’t crack the top 20 anymore it’s really bizarre uh that this

Is not a course where he just kind of goes mental and and beats everyone but it ain’t so here we are so that’s what it looks like over the course of the past 24 rounds the best from that key par 4 range that we talked about for I

Mean we could probably look at this one you know what we’ll do we’ll add in because it’s very difficult to purse maybe we this is a better to take a look at past 50 rounds so let’s load in past 50 rounds and see if different names

Start cropping up near the top uh just because with the layoff and no capala stats in this and the capala ones are going to be very difficult to parse anyway because everyone hits the Fairway it’s a very strong field this is a very weak field and the courses don’t have

Any similarities really whatsoever that if we go back to the 50 rounds and we take take a look at it Glover is still number one but Connors matama Rose and gim all rise up Hatton makes an appearance Cole remains Henley remains Denny comes back up Davis and oar are

Still 10 and 11 Michael Kim Rises up and then all of a sudden you have Alex SMY Aaron Ry my guy Chris gdup yab bombs are all up there as well I talked a little bit earlier about how Mark hubard has not been good at this course but he

Comes in 18th in the key stat rankings spawn drops Poston drops Woodland zalot torus and then we see benan longterm is a little bit better as well Callum Taran pops up as well I want to see where Callum I mean Callum Taran has popped up

A bunch of times over the course of the past few years I bet on him a bunch of times very bad POA putter better on bent but it just seems like he play he does play easy courses much better than versus the field it’s not like yeah he

Plays easy courses well and hard courses poorly everyone does it’s versus the field very good wind player too see strangely enough versus he loses Strokes to the field in calm ideal conditions mod at win to super windy he actually gains on the field regardless of course

Of note uh he came seventh at the fortnet oh yeah he had the back-to-back weeks in the swing season where he gained a bunch of Strokes T to Green I bet him at Shriners and he absolutely sucked well he didn’t suck he came t23

But did not have the same sort of T to Green week that week as he did Travelers Pete die course rocket mortgage so I mean he’s gained over six Strokes T to Green a bunch of times in his past like 10 starts or so and that was really

Going the other way before that and he played at the RS yeah he gagged it down the stretch at the RSM in 2022 and that’s back when so the swing season has been very good to him I don’t know if it’s like because he is British that

The second half of the year you know after it starts getting super duper hot maybe he likes that a little bit more I don’t know CU he played well with the rocket mortgage that’s like the middle of July so I guess that theory is out the window but he has been better than

Not although the past three starts have been bad I don’t know if I really want to take a look at him n he was great off the tea here in 2022 but that’s the only history that we have for him at this tournament just trying to find guys down

The list maybe I should kind of stick with the ones that I know the best but now that we have a longer sample of past 50 rounds we’ll take a look at the key power 4 range Henley McCarthy Rose man Rose keeps popping up do I have to bet

Justin Rose that’s so gross he I mean he wasn’t as bad as maybe the scorecard indicates Thursday at kaaloa because he took a two-stroke penalty for playing the wrong ball in the Fairway that he thought was his he actually rebounded quite nicely he was four over at one

Point uh in that round I think he rallied back to either be even or minus one for the day which is not the hardest thing to do at a birdie Fest but to stay engaged enough to kind of start going at it it shows the game isn’t all the way

There because you’re not paying attention to your ball but good enough he can start reeling off birdies he didn’t just sink himself after a really poor start which is really nice to see so Henley Denny Rose Hatton Cam Davis Aaron R Brenan Todd the Todd father Cory Connors the glove Steven Jagger Bradley

Benan and oar Doug gim Hayden Buckley there he pops up again curious to know what his number is going to be coming into the week with the T12 and then T2 each of the past two years if he gets overinflated or people legitimately just forget about him in the market Kirk is

Up there as well ah Taylor Montgomery the flea market is back strean so there forchan Kim is in the field I want I mean toasty is a legit like he could be the bad boy of the PGA Tour move over zingu Zang it’s time for Alejandro to quote N sabot from from

Mortal Kombat in the 9s I don’t know if they do that in Mortal Kombat anymore but they used to back in the day love this guy I hope he’s an actual villain I hope he’s actually good he just runs hot you think Hatton runs hot this dude runs

Hot it is awesome to watch had a T10 in a weak field in Mexico a year ago played really well on the cor fairy tour got like suspended on the Corin fairy tour for Bering people last year which is just I mean I love this [ __ ] I need I

Think we need absolute hotheads on the PGA tour I love when PGA Twitter and people online get oh my God I can’t believe people smash their clubs on the ground or yelled at someone on the course like do people not play golf that’s how this [ __ ] [ __ ] works I

Love I mean I have one guy that probably throws his Club way too much but just like I even saw the JT clip resurface when he missed the put he’s like you piece of [ __ ] yelling at the ball like I love to hear it it was just give us an

R-rated give us an R-rated broadcast with R-rated broadcasters and mic everyone up and don’t beep out they swearing cuz these guys are swearing all the time but this guy’s like a lunatic so yeah he’s going to be on team Mayo for sure we’ll see how that goes moving

Forward uh kear three range Cole is the best Michael Kim putam Lashley rose again holy [ __ ] Rose and Glover are just everywhere oh that’s so gross how’s the glove doing this week and I don’t even know how he’s doing this week in Capo I assume not the greatest since I’m not

Hearing about him norin matama Kitty benan again Callum Taran again Gip again is popping up the gala is a part of that mix Chris Kirk so I guess it all depends realistically on the value of some of these guys DraftKings wise are outright betting Chris Kirk first round leader is

Probably a good look dude loves being good in the first round here um you can even take a look at that the best this is one thing I never do on the show that maybe we should and this will go back forever if we just scroll down to

Wly let’s see it here where is Wy I can never spell it without looking there it is w a i a l a e CC so we’ll just go to that last 50 rounds at wly um obviously no one has that many rounds at

Wy uh Paton kazy has 24 rounds at Wy but let’s just go by first round only to see who has the best first round only stats we probably don’t even need to do custom stat model we’ll just do strokes gained uh to make it easy on ourselves to see

Who does well at these tournaments and we’ll go to average and we’ll take a look at Strokes gain first round only Montgomery Griffin sh Kim Fenson AC way off on Chris Kirk there’s Kirk but he does have 13 web for thir so the other guys have like one round three rounds

For senson so maybe senson could be a first round leader look ekro Hall have one round McNeely has two web Simpson gains 2.6 Strokes in the first round at this tournament in 13 first rounds SE wo same number in six first rounds Chris Kirk gains two per round in 13 so of

Guys that have played at a a bunch of times kazy web SEIU Chris Kirk Poston Rose coners Ryan Palmer Harris English Brian Harmon now we’re getting down the list a little bit Henley Stuart sink Ben Taylor I had Ben Taylor I won a bunch of money on this DraftKings wise

Last year I think I came fourth in my tournament that link should be out on Monday but uh Ben Taylor and David lipsky were the main reasons that that happened just throwing that out there Zack Johnson obviously and badly in 10 Rounds uh has played pretty well here

Too anyway that’s just what I wanted to look at for this course uh I’m going to take off the filter for first round take that off and I’m I talked about all those comp courses so let’s just look at all those we’ll take wly

Out of it so what did I say I said Harbor toown uh we’ll go with Colonial first just short courses where accuracy guys can play generally weaker Fields harbort Town’s different because it’s been an elevated event the past I guess even coming out of Co technically it was

An elevated event so we’ll go Colonial but historically you know what I’m saying on that front so we’ll do that where’s Harbor Town it starts with an H right Harbor Town and spelled the the old way with the U there I don’t want Hazel team in there that is most

Definitely not a comp course for this so wly Sedgefield CC so let’s go to Sedgefield CC and and hell we can throw myoba into it still like it doesn’t really matter guys will have it’ll probably skew more towards some of the older players just because we don’t have

Any info from it from this year and there was no Strokes gain data so we’ll just have strokes gain total from that so where is it myoba CC M A do we even have it in here anymore oh because it was called el chameleon wasn’t it l what’s it called

El chameleon now I get everything you take El chameleon CC want to say that’s what it was so we’ll just put those four into the mix uh and we can see past 50 rounds let’s shrink that to pass I don’t know 24 rounds with those four courses and

We’ll sort by averages and just see if anyone’s good ludvig Oar in four where his four at at the Windam played really well okay so Oar Henley Davis Connors web Simpson so those are the top five Matt coocher trell Hatton Matt Matthew Fitzpatrick sewu Kim Brendan Todd are

The next ones all gaining a stroke more Eric Cole and Austin eot in 10 and 18 rounds those are all the players in the field currently gaining one stroke or more per round total of anyone in this tournament after that you got rose again emilano Grio hadwin hubard Merritt putam

Noren Glover once again Carson young does really well at this style of course even though he missed the cut at the Sony Sony’s not included in this Ben Griffin who had a good run at this tournament a year ago Harris English another one who’s played this tournament

Really well over the years Hideki is a former winner the one I did want to point out that if you do look at it and take a look at this P the past champions at this course in general so sewo won last year a former players champion

Hideki won the year before that a former players champion Kevin naw yet a players champion Cameron Smith in 2020 won the PLAYERS Championship Matt coocher won in 2019 won the PLAYERS Championship Patton kazy he didn’t win Justin Thomas in 200 17 won the PLAYERS Championship uh so

Maybe if you win like web Simpson has played this tournament so well over the years he’s also won the PLAYERS Championship I don’t know if that has anything to do with it but just guys that have played well at that tournament over the years tend to play well at this

One as well but there’s so much variance in that tournament that looking at their overall stats at least in my mind kind of throws it out the whole key would be for The Players Championship is to look at something like Sony and Sedgefield as the crossover comp courses for that

Event of guys that played well at the Players Championship a yearo hadwin did Hatton obviously came second Sheffer won but he’s not going to be playing in this tournament and Cole had it going he he and Ben Griffin had it going for like two and a half rounds and then it was

The end of those guys so those are the ones that play well at the comp coures the worst guys uh Jimmy giving himself The Stranger and probably shouldn’t do that before a golf tournament you don’t need that hand numb that’s a terrible experience probably why he has negative

6.2 Strokes gain total per round at all of the comp courses yeah don’t be giving yourself The Stranger and I also got Long Dong Paul Baran he probably given himself The Stranger for old Long Dong here that’s why they’re both a combined minus 10 Strokes total per round at

These comp courses can’t do the Long Dong and the stranger going to be tough to actually have an explosion of sorts on the golf course you like that bit do you I did yeah I can tell you that I did you can tell by the smile on my face that I did

Let’s guess some odds for the Sony this is going to be very difficult because I think ludvig oar is going to be the betting favorite I think he comes in at 12 to1 I got Hatton and Fitz next I got Fitz at 12 Hatton at 14 obviously I am

Not factoring in the results of kaaloa because I do not know them as you can tell by the success rate of my outright bets I do not know the future so I’m just not going to factor that in at all so yes if tiol Hatton wins caloa or one

Of these guys wins they’re going to Vault up the odds boards for the Sony Open hell they might even withdraw from the Sony Open if that’s the case anyway you can’t factor that in when we’re doing this on a Saturday so I have those three at the top then I have Brian

Harmon at 16 to1 I might be missing people here I just because there’s so many of the some of these names so those are the big five that I have they’re the only five I have below 20 to1 after that I have Hideki at 20 theala at

22 Connor at 25 and sewu both at 28 to1 I have Cole and Grio both at 33 coming in after that then Poston Todd Cam Davis all at 40 to1 hadwin and norin both at 50 to1 and then you have a whole bunch of other guys who I honestly have no

Idea like where do you put Glover does Glover coming at 30 is he 55 are people going to want to bet on Glover where does Ben Anne come in he could be 35 as well he could be 66 coming in like there’s such a wide range for some of

These not because it’s all like the it’s the B Squad tournament I mean I love these tournaments because it is the B Squad but you could make benan 28 to one in this tournament and people would bet him you could put him at 66 and the same

People would bet him and the same people wouldn’t bet him so it all really kind of Hit the openers on some of these guys a little bit lower uh and Rose I have it Rose I had it 35 to1 but after looking at this and going through it I think

That Rose might actually be a pretty popular play this week so he’s probably going to be like 25 to1 not 35 to1 if he does come in at 35 to1 at open I’m probably going to instab bet him and that’ll be the first thing to do and I

Don’t necessarily like Justin Rose all that much or in general but the numbers are kind of pointing me towards them and as we’ve talked about be it coocher be it Hideki the years that they won or even Kevin naw coming in they didn’t have good weeks at caloa and then

Rebounded nicely to win at the Sony Open so what you do at capoo it doesn’t really mean all that much uh going forward for performance this week just having those reps under your belt is the best way to do it in the comment section give me your what you think the top

Three in odds are going to be or what you think Justin Rose or Lucas Glover comes in we always need the interaction do the same thing for Spotify that would really help us out getting the draw for the oneandone fantasy golf championships. to go get your spot it’s

Almost running out if you’re watching this on a Saturday night or Sunday morning I’m going to be live with cust and garion after the late set of football games at 7:15 p.m. eastern time on the Mayo media Network YouTube channel plus everything is going to be

Up on the Pod feed after the fact so great to have golf back in my life I’m sure you feel the same way and I love having all of you back in my life as well uh the first week of the show for golf huge success so let’s keep it going

Get those audio ratings and reviews on Apple SP podcast and Spotify for the pat Mayo experience going and the winner will be drawn on Monday to get your name into the running for the one and done if you do those things all right thank you all for watching I’m Pat I’ll see you

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