Win Big In Golf One & Done Leagues | 2024 One & Done Strategy, Tools & More

Rick Gehman reviews golf one & done strategy for 2024 and introduces some leagues that you can to enter with prizes up to $30,000.

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Golf one and done leagues are exploding in popularity and for good reason they’re very simple you’re not eliminated at any point like you are in an NFL Survivor League also they can be as complex as you want and now with the growth in the industry there’s actually

A lot of big money to be won in these oneand done contests so I’m going to run you through the math behind some strategy to try to give you a leg up and I’ll show you a couple of different leagues that you can get into if you

Want to compete for money or for Glory in a global League we’ll talk through all of that but let’s jump into it golfs one and done in 20124 all right Rick gaan here and I’ve been talking a lot about these oneandone contests over the years so I I won’t give you the fullon

Just basic primer here but if you’ve never heard of this what you’re asked to do is select one golfer each week you get as much uh money in points as they do on the golf course and whoever has the most money at the end wins and can

Win a lot of of money so um let me take you through this a little bit quickly here because I think there are a couple of items that you need to keep in mind as you’re investing into these contests size absolutely matters and that relates

To two things it relates to the size of the contest that you are in and it relates to the size of the purse so if you have not been following the PGA Tour the World of Golf uh recently the the purses are out of control and the way

That they are spreading them out is nowhere near even so what we’re getting is these Peaks and vales of prize purses so that’s what I’m showing you on the screen right now and most oneandone leagues will will have 31 events it’ll be from the Sony open until the BMW

Championship yes some might start the tournament champions yes some might go until the Tour Championship but this is the standard uh schedule it’s the schedule that I use in both both of the one andd that I run and most people around the industry use as well and you can see

There is a huge discrepancy between the purses anywhere from $8 million $7.7 million up to $25 million and actually the most annoying part about this right now is as we turn the calendar into 2024 the PGA Tour has not even announced their official prize purses yet we know

Which events are the Signature Events so those are going to get $20 million purses almost certainly and then we know obviously the major championships and where they are going to come in and we kind of have past history to show you where the nons Signature Events might

Come in so that’s what I’ve put together here in the spreadsheet just what I think the most likely purses are the ones that we know and what the first place prizes are and what you’re going to see is you’re going to see again these these Peaks and valleys and there

Used to be a time in one and done where everybody went out and spent their four best golfers at the major championships because they were the Bigg purses and then the PLAYERS Championship got cranked up to 20 million or $25 million and then you realize that was the most

Valuable tournament well now with the combination of majors and Signature Events there are actually 14 different events that can get you a huge chunk of money nearly half the schedule so that’s good that opens up a lot more combinations a lot more permutations you don’t just have to play your four best

Players at major championships in fact you probably shouldn’t you should probably play your four best golfers at the Players Championship and three of the signature events that would actually be the way to do it if you were trying to maximize the most EV the most expected value put a pin in that thought

For a second the other thing that matters is how many people are in your league I have participated in a huge range of different size leagues as small as I mean I was in one last year that I think had people in it I was in one last

Year that had 5,000 people in it so what I did is I ran the numbers and I grabbed a couple of different contests that I was in to kind of show you how much money you are going to need to win that contest not to you know just cash or

Whatever but to actually win it so in a 50 person League you probably need about $22 million in earnings throughout the year to win it that’s $79,000 per start in a 500 person tournament you probably need closer to 25 million which is about $86,000 per start when you get to a

Thousand people uh it’s closer to 27 million that’s about $870,000 per start and then when you get to 4,000 5,000 you’re talking about 29 million maybe even $30 million um to win those leagues which is about $935,000 per start and the reason that I point that out is

Because when you start looking at the first place person compared to how much you will need to win over the course of a season uh in each of these different size leagues there’s a ton of opportunity right so those 14 events that I mentioned earlier those 14 events nearly half the schedule

Will give you about if you win it if you get if you pick the winner about 15 or 16% of the money that you need over the course of the entire season in one go so let’s game that out a little bit right if you pick the winner of the AT&T Pebble Beach

Proam this year and you get the 3.6 million that is about 16% of the the money that you will need over the course of the entire season to win a 50 person league so you picked up one sixth of the amount of money that you need in one

Event with 30 others still to add to your total okay and that’s important so you can see how um you know and obviously it depends on like if everybody picked the winner at one of these events you might need a little bit more if you were the only per like

Obviously there’s a lot of other VAR variables here but the fact that half the schedule is full of these events is really exciting for for our purposes and you can see you know these events that only offer 1.3 1 Point uh four $1.5 million do they even if you find the

Winner they are not getting you a significant chunk of the money that you need to win so we’re going to focus on these big events they’re going to be the ones that we’re going to roll out our best op options they’re the ones that we

Are going to roll out um The Game Theory options as well we’re going to try to get a little bit different from everybody else but there’s a lot of opportunity to do that this year which should um help alleviate a little bit of the luck aspect as well I’ve actually

Found I’ve been more successful now that the tour has gone to a signature event type of schedule where there are more of the you want to make more decisions it used to just be if you got the majors right you would be towards the top now there’s more of those uh High leverage

Decisions to be made if you want to get into one of these leagues I’m running two different leagues for kind of two different purposes the first one is rungood golf.com it is me on my site hosting um just fullon stat tracking full on anything that you can imagine essentially a global oneandone ranking

System so if you’ve ever played in my one and duns before I already have your data loaded in I already have profile made for you you can click through your past stats you can earn badges it’s a lot of fun it’s cheap to get in it’s

Only 39 bucks and this is open to everyone globally which is one of the issues that we’ve had in the past so you can go get your stat page uh compete in divisions there is promotion and relegation so if you are in the top percent of your division you get

Promoted for next year or if you’re in the bottom you get relegated so it’s just going to be a lot of fun it’s cheap there’s small prizes but I’ve got to be conscientious about the uh legalities and regulations worldwide but that is open to everyone so come and join that

At last check there was about 650 people in that so we’re going to have at least 10 full divisions probably much more than that by the time that we get to the Sony Open when this uh starts on the 11th of January I believe is the date of

The Sony Open and then the other one is on Splash Sports so Splash is what we’ve used for um our weekly contest it is what we have used used for our NFL Survivor pool and this one is is is like go get the bag right this is for money

Currently the first prize uh if we can fill this thing is going to be $30,000 imagine that 30k for winning a a one in done so um you can enter up to three times there’s it’s a $150 entry this is completely regulated all good on

The up and up but it’s only available in 41 States so unfortunately for those of you who are in the nine states that this is not available for those of you in Canada and worldwide my apologies uh it stinks I get it that’s why I wanted to

Have an option for both and honestly if you want to uh participate in both please do you should I will and the links and information for both of those will be in the description if you want to get involved there are a couple little tricks about picking golfers but

Uh before I jump into that and show you a little bit of data pick your golfers right the amount of people who leave Rory mroy and John ROM and Scotty sheffler and Xander Schley and Max h on the bench at the end of the year is is

Jarring you have you have cost yourself a ton of expected value be Santa Claus make a list check it twice I don’t care if you make a list from the official world golf rankings top 40 I don’t care if you make a list from the FedEx Cup

Top 40 or whatever make a list print it out on your desk and make sure that you are using at least all of the top guys guys uh by the time that we get to the end of the year okay let me show you so I’ve been um combing over the data from

Past selections from past contests and you’re going to see a really interesting way in which some of these golfers are used okay so this is all of uh the data from last year and you can see I mean uh look at the number of people that drop

Off on even making their selections at the end of the year don’t do that make your picks through throughout the year but um what I want to show you is you know there there is a huge kind of group think or there is a huge I don’t even know what the word is

Like like deployment of these golfers so let me show you something interesting let’s look up Jordan spe very popular golfer he’s going to be used by most people in in in one anddone situations he is used almost exclusively at three events throughout the year um 15% of

People use him at the Pebble Beach program that will probably be higher this year because that is a signature event 16.5% of people used him at the Masters and then 15 % of people used him at the Charles Schwab an event that uh is in Texas which which makes a lot of

Sense these are places that he plays very very well so the idea being that if you can hold on to Jordan spe at least through the Masters at least through the Masters there is about half of the league that does not even have access to him anymore okay so we’re g to talk

About that in a second the the idea of not only ownership how many people are selecting each golf offer on a weekly basis but also the available to use rate right if if half the league cannot even use Jordan spe uh you have you have

Carved out a little bit of of an edge if you go to use him at a specific spot and is Jordan spe significantly more likely to win the Charles Schwab than the PGA Championship the Charles Schwab then the Wells Fargo then the RBC Heritage whatever the answer in short is is no a

Lot of these guys even the best players even the favorites are going to be maybe nine or 10 Perc likely to win a golf tournament maybe and the difference between Jordan spe at one of a variety of different events is maybe 1% or maybe 2% but people get really caught up in

Places to use him let me show you another one Rory mroy again if you can wait on Rory mroy you are going to be much better off look at this start from last year he was used 1236 he was used by nearly half the entire league by the by the players

Championship last year we did not even get to the first major and Rory mroy had been used by half the league then when you add in the Masters and the Wells Fargo Championship that’s another 25% so basically Rory mroy was used in 75% of the by 75% of the league by the

Time we got to the second major um I don’t need to remind you that Roy finished runner up at the US Open I don’t need to remind you that he just I mean he had a phenomenal year he made a ton of money just being able to use him and

Look at his final you know seven or eight events he was not used in any single week more than six and half percent and you could have had like a 1% Rory mroy in half of his starts so we’re going to try to wait on Rory

Right and and there’s some of these guys like this you’ll look at Scotty actually Scotty’s fairly well-rounded right Scotty got used uh early in the year but he got used kind of everywhere some people saved him for the US Open there there’s you know there’s not a ton of of

Trends here Scotty was a was a great pick um all year long here’s Max H’s chart 19 % at the farmers 20% at the Genesis by the time we got to the first major championship he was used in 40 50 about 60% of leagues can we wait on Max

Hom these are guys that you can wait on ruling out the opportunity for anybody else to use them what about the opposite is there someone that we should use early someone like Hideki I think is interesting right when you look at Hadi he is either used uh early at the Sony

Open or late in the season there is kind of a dead period for Hideki from the Farmers Insurance open until you know maybe even the memorial where he’s had a good record maybe the Byron Nelson but you could get him at one or two% ownership basically any of

The first couple of months of the year and even if you want to run it back out at the Masters 2.6% owned at last year’s Masters right so um Hideki does have places with good history on the schedule Phoenix as well uh where he’s going to be low own owned and using him

Not Sony but early would make you different let me show you a couple more here um Keegan Bradley was generally used later yes he was used a bit at the Sony Open yes he was used Believe It or Not The Players Championship quite a bit at least of of his selections excuse me

Um but the uh rocket mortgage and the BMW Championship were larger portions of his ownership and then I’ll wrap this up with Klay and Xander Schley you can use that K you can see that Klay is usually one of the most spread out golfers uh from the beginning

Of the year straight up until basically you get to the US Open he is he’s fairly popular in a lot of these different uh different tournaments and then Xander has kind of a an interesting little bell curve where the majority of his use is in the summertime the Wells Fargo

Championship Through The Travelers Championship is where he is going to gobble up a lot of his projected ownership you know using him at um the Open Championship or using him prior to that maybe it’s the PLAYERS Championship maybe it’s an event in March seems to be a way to differentiate yourself and and

I want to go back to the idea of of why it’s important to differentiate yourself why it’s important to know the odds on these guys are really really close allowing leverage and luck to kind of fall in your favor um is probably the best way to do

This I tried to illustrate an example that might be helpful here so I I I just obviously I just made up these numbers but let’s say that you are you know at you’re past the halfway point you’ve got uh two options for specific week one is Rory maroy one is Scotty Sheffer the

Assumptions that we are making is that Rory’s implied odds to win the golf tournament is about 12 and a half perc and Scotty is about 99.9% a little under 10 per. in the odds Market that’s a pretty big difference at the top in terms of actual percentage it’s it’s

What two two and a half perent it is not really a big deal at all what what is come what is more important is how many golfers uh or how many users have each of those available so let’s say Rory maoy like we have seen is only available

To 50% of the users but Scotty Sheffer he has already been used quite a bit he’s available to 20% only 20% of users we’re going to assume that each of the groups that have these golfers available half of them are going to use them that

Means that Rory mroy gets used uh by 25% of the total users and Scotty Sheffer gets used by 10% of the entire um of the entire league the first place win Equity uh money for Rory mroy a $3.6 million purse uh times 12 and a half% is$

450,000 that’s what he would you know expect to receive Scotty sheffler would expect to receive 359,000 uh and then in raw numbers if this was a, person League 125 would use Rory mroy and 20 would use Scotty Sheffer okay I just threw a lot of numbers at you but what that

Essentially shows the difference between the odds to win and the expected value of money earned is not nearly as large as the amount of people who end up using a golfer right so the difference between Scotty Sheffer and Rory mroy uh in money expected money is less than $100,000 it

Is a multiple of 1.25 uh from Rory to Scotty but the multiple of people that are using him Rory T Scotti is 6.25 so what with golf and how VAR how much variance there is how much crazy stuff can happen giving yourself a golfer at one sixth of the ownership that is only

A few percentage points worse in the outright Market is going to be more valuable every single time you might run bad and the chalk might go out and win all these Signature Events but the times that Scotty comes through the times that the that low owned or guy

That is not even available to be owned comes through that’s what vaults you up that is what gives you the chunk of money that you need to actually win these types of contests that’s how you separate yourself from the rest of the field and the truth is you know Scotty

Sheffer um or I actually just looked at up you know Max homo who we saw is you know used significantly at the beginning of the year before we get to any major championships has the same odds 35 to one to win each of the four major championships and I know it’s early it’s

Obviously early in the year but there is not going to be enough that changes week in and week out um to make these guys any significantly better or significantly worse in the in the odds Market which is I think something that we should be looking at and taking very

Seriously the the final thing to consider is the idea of future value we looked at this a lot in the NFL Survivor pool that we did because that’s a lot easier to calculate future value you know what the games are already going to be you know that every team of the NFL

Is going to play 17 games we don’t know this far in advance what events these golfers are going to play but we can make some assumptions right so if you’re Rory Mel right and we assume that he is going to play all of the major championships that he is going to play

All of the Signature Events and he might not right he might take one or two off they’re I guess probably still trying to figure out the rules of that he’s going to play the final two events you’ve got um you know 14 events for Rory for a

Total of uh what is that $277 million in in prize money he is not going to be significantly more likely to win the AT&T Pebble Beach proam uh as he would be to win The Travelers championship for example um and they have the same purses

One Rory maroy will be at a much lower availability number simply because more tournaments would have passed and holding on to him probably becomes more valuable now there’s going to be guys that are the opposite there are going to be guys that Peak early in the year

Maybe that is Hideki you know because those the good spots for him are early maybe it is maxom maybe their future value does fall as the year goes on so it’s hard to make a calculation for that um as we go through this week after week

I will try to uh I’ll try to do that I’ll try to post some like future value numbers once the fields are are set and maybe an idea of of of where these guys are going to play in the future but that that to me future value and ownership

Each week is probably the most important thing to consider for this year if you do want to get involved again there are two different types of contest if you want to win the bag and try to get your crack at uh $330,000 for first place if

We can fill this thing go to Splash Sports the link is in the description go enter your three entries if you want to be part of something fun with a bunch of stat tracking that is open globally that’s run good golf that’s my website

Or go ahead and do like me do like a lot of people I’ve seen and get in both uh it’s going to be an absolutely fun year plenty more One anddone content coming best of luck and I’ll talk to you guys soon