Can your stacks be full of popular plays? :: Draftkings DFS Lab 16.1

Hey OWS Fam!

Hesitant to even make this DFS Lab public, LOL. We built a killer roster. Started with a Justin Fields stack that should be full of popular players, but should be low-owned combinatorially, with Fields, DJ Moore, Cole Kmet, and Trey McBride. Our supposition that this will be “full of high-owned plays, but low-owned combinatorially” allowed us to basically fill out the rest of the roster with “favorite plays,” where we put in Chuba Hubbard and Breece Hall at running back, and used Jamal Agnew at WR to unlock the salary for Justin Jefferson.

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What is going on ows fam DFS fam YouTube fam welcome to the first DFS lab of week 16 2023 I am JM he is Keegan we will be opening up this slate it’s a Thursday we were just talking before the show there’s still a lot of this deep into

The season there’s a lot of unknowns on a Thursday but uh we will be opening up this slate talking about it a little bit getting our thoughts rolling on this slate building a roster and using that as an opportunity to poke around some of the available angles on this slate uh

And also talk some DFS strategy DFS Theory become better DFS players with that let’s get started one week Season Keegan my man uh so you were saying before we got on air you did a little bit more poking around on this slate uh had a little extra time but you still kind of felt like it’s very early yeah I think it’s kind of I said in the

Angles email that went out this morning like I think it’s better for ows members smaller slates are better because we are better than the field generally speaking at identifying who the true best plays are on the Slate and so with a smaller slate that gives you less to sort

Through and and fewer options to like less noise right so it’s easier to really narrow down that list and then also we’re better at strategy and Theory than the field and and so we have a clearer Sense on a small slate of where the field is going to go and then where

We can kind of push our edges but this deep into the season like a 12 game slate 13 game slate kind of feels like a 10 game slate midseason so like a nine game slate almost feels like a six game slate or something it’s like feels crazy

Yeah scoring down you got all these backup quarterbacks you got bad matchups you have uh injuries you have you know obviously we’re in this current iteration of the NFL where a lot of split back fields not a lot of Workhorse backs and so uh yeah I mean it’s like

It’s a very like typically if if this were week eight we had a nine game slate I’d be like dude this is dope like this is right up our alley nine games right here is like man what is like what is there to do um yeah any kind of macro

Thoughts from you on what you’ve been seeing with this slate yeah uh I mean the running backs the I feel like not just this week but really it this whole season feels so much different than uh last season when it comes to um Point production and and just a whole

Different um like Dynamic with the backs this season and I guess that’s just the evolution of DFS um as we continue you know throughout the next few years or whatever but um it’s just seems so much more thin yeah especially this week as well yeah I mean it’s evolution of DFS

And evolution of NFL teams and one of the things that I you know you hopped into DFS in 2021 2020 202 21 um you know when I hopped in in 2014 I used to laugh that so many people rostered Adrien Peterson because he didn’t catch passes

And it’s PPR scoring and he would be priced as like one of the highest priced plays on the Slate and it’s like dude just play the cheap running backs who catch passes uh and then the NFL evolved to where Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson would literally they they would get like

10 to 14 targets per game plus their 18 plus carries and it was like so powerful in DFS to have those guys but also so powerful that other NFL teams saw it and started Drafting and developing guys to be those players but what started Happ was these guys would get on their second

Contracts get paid big money and then their bodies would break down because they’ve been used so much so it’s like over the last few years NFL teams have really there’s so few Workhorse backs they really shifted to these split back fields and that’s a directly affected DFS because the you know when Le’Veon

Bell and it used to be Adrian Peterson would be like 8K and that was the highest pric running back and then Le’Veon Bell David Johnson it cracked 8K and then it was like 8600 and it was over 9k uh and Levitan coined this term team jamama in where it was like just

Find a salary to Jam these guys in but it was like crazy pricing but then the NFL like the the NFL has changed running back position isn’t the same thing but the pricing hasn’t changed so you still have like you got you got guys priced like 7600 88,200 and you’re like why

Wouldn’t I just play the wide receivers in the in these pric exactly the weirdest thing is like it’s not like the 5K running backs are really providing you much value either right they’re all kind of overpriced for their production um yeah so yeah I mean I I tweeted kind

Of jokingly on uh I think like two Tuesday and said um can I just play six wide receivers on this slate I was looking again last night and kind of thinking you know like you know if we go top down right it’s like Rashad white is is a solid play um he’s gonna

Be in fact we can pull up y oh you got your notebook I love it uh we got Rashad White’s kind of a solid play but like he’s 7,400 his best game on the year is 27.9 points right so it’s not like he’s not like gonna blow you

Away he’s not going to bury you for not playing him and most of the time he’s going to get you like 17 to 22 points uh I think this this cowboys Dolphin game is very interesting because of this is pretty crazy I was looking at this up

This morning nine of the Cowboys games have been decided by 20 or more points so seven of their wins they won by 20 or more points two of their losses they lost by 20 or more why is that well it’s because when you fall behind to the Cowboys you become one-dimensional and

They have this these Exotics pass rush looks and then Michael Parson’s in there like and offense can’t deal with that when it they become onedimensional they have to pass the ball um and so when the Cowboys get ahead opponents just like have a hard time developing their

Offense but on the flip side the Cowboys aren’t great when they become onedimensional so teams that you know the 49ers blew them out the bills blew blew them out both of them did it by running the ball taking a lead turning the Cowboys into into a one-dimensional

Team so I could see the dolphins really trying to do that this week especially if Tyreek Hill is still banged up and so uh moster you know is interesting from a ceiling perspective Jonathan Taylor bad match up but interesting from a ceiling perspective uh but generally speaking

Like I kind of think like the like the Bon Robinson Aaron Jones Bree Hall chuba hubard chuba hub’s Gonna Stand Out I think on this SL it’s almost like you can just get down to that price range and get sort of the same range of outcomes maybe with a little bit more

Risk taken on like Bon Robinson who knows what Arthur Smith will do with that offense but yeah I mean I I think that it’s thin and that’s one of the first things to note because if it’s thin but then like ownership starts congregating on one or two guys that

Kind of gives us free reign to be like cool we’ll maybe go to some different guys maybe some bad chalk will’ll develop this week uh but then also like kind of like if Jonathan Taylor moster if they don’t hit for like a monster game you’re getting the same score you

Know from just these cheaper running backs as long as you get the ones that actually end up hitting so yeah I mean I don’t know any thoughts any thoughts on that yeah is eight is um aan out is he not um a possibility as well is he no I

Mean h Chan’s a possibility as well well I just um you know his what is this his last few games it was nine carries seven carries 17 carries but those 17 carries a lot of them came uh in these if I remember correctly in the second half of

That game that they won 45 to 15 against Washington so um they’re still kind of using him in this limited role and most are you know in that same stretch 15 carries 21 carries and then again 11 carries against Washington but that was all like he had the first half workload

And then Anan took over when it when the game was out of hand so so are you saying like mostly that gets played when the game when they’re up and when the game does get kind of out of hand and uh you know it looks like they’re going to

Win yeah and you know there’s also we can’t know for sure what coaches are going to do right Bon Robinson had been seeing the bulk of the workload for Atlanta and then all of a sudden last week TI L was like a much bigger part of

The game plan uh a few weeks ago you know Deon single ter had that hot run this is pretty crazy right Deon single ter had that hot run when Daman Pierce was out first game with Damen Pierce back their carries were almost the same so that’s all people were looking at the

Box score but single ter had played 80% of snaps so the next week I was like dude all in on single ter right and then that was the week where Damen Pierce got more carries scored his touchdown uh and then that was the onewe blip and ever

Since then it’s been single Terry again so it’s like sometimes we don’t know what these back fields are going to do but generally speaking aan is kind of like their change up that they’re putting out you know he’s gonna get his seven to 10 touches but it’s like he’s

Their change up back that they’re wanting to change up the speed uh change up the look that the defense is getting but they’re not giving him the full workload uh so like that that 17 carry game in the Box Score it looks like one thing but the reality of it was that was

Like and I have to go back and look at that game again to be completely sure but it I was watching that game if I remember correctly it was like the whole second half tur into an h-and show and moster was like okay let’s rest him you

Know um so yeah I mean I I think that and we saw earlier this year right he had 151 yards on 11 carries like he had 101 yards on eight carries so he’s still viable in that regard but yeah I think that the you know and also Al the

Catches catches are valuable three five and three his last three games so yeah I wouldn’t totally cross him off the list he’s way overpriced for like his touches but he can still post a big game so um yeah I think that’s a good shout there on the points you need possibility type

Of yeah and also like realistically right if we’re not getting 4X from any running backs and you get 22 points from a like that ends up working it’s almost one of those unique pairings where like I said how you beat the Cowboys obviously the Cowboys they just got what

Did Josh Allen threw the ball times we’ve never seen that uh Cowboys just got crushed by James Cook so their whole is gonna be like we cannot get beat on the ground like this so just because that happened doesn’t mean it’s going to happen again but realistically

If you are the Dolphins and you see like Cowboys have been blown out twice and both them were teams that could control the game on the ground make the Cowboys one dimensional the whole the whole story with the Cowboys is like just don’t fall behind because if you fall

Behind you’re going to drop back and pass and they know that you’re going to pass like you’re in so much trouble against this defense so I mean I could see realistically a scenario in which moster plus aan ends up being optimal on this slate like they could combine for

50 plus points and that could be the best running back pairing that you could get um you know regardless of the fact that they’re teammate so yeah I mean this is just a really interesting week at the running back position see this is this is the Dilemma that I’ve gone

Through the same thing with um Bon Robinson um you know like you said last week it’s I think it adds a lot of uncertainty to um if he’s going to be popular this week or not and uh I’m also wondering if I’m even G to play him as

Much because of um last week alone yeah you know one thing we one thing we’ve also seen is this has been in the past that the Packers like go hard at limiting Aaron Jones touches and then there will come a point in the season when their season is on the line and

It’s like oh we literally need to win and all of a sudden you’ll like we go back through past seasons and and look at the box scores and there will be like this sudden stretch where Aaron Jones is getting 17 to 25 touches per game for

Like three or four games so um you know the the Packers seven and seven right in the cusp of that playoff hunt uh it would take some some Faith to like kind of pull the trigger on that because we don’t know but on such a thin week

That’s one of the places where you could be like God it’s a great match against Carolina um we did just see the Falcons which you know who who who can Plum the depths of Arthur Smith’s mind but we did just see the Falcons kind of use their

Uh AJ Dylan type back in Tyler aler last week against the Panthers and kind of limit ban Robinson who’s more of an Aaron Jones type player uh limit Bon Robinson in that matchup so you know maybe the Packers will see something similar but this is the type of spot

Where you could see the Packers unleash Aaron Jones a little bit more be like hey look we got to win these games who cares about protecting his body it doesn’t matter if he’s healthy in the playoffs if we’re not in the playoffs so um yeah yeah that’s another one I mean

It’s it’s it’s weird because we’re used to running back like the pieces kind of line up to where it’s like oh I have like three four five running backs in my pool and then like some Fringe guys who maybe could hit this week it’s so thin that because I mean Jeffrey Simmons is

Like the great run stopper for Tennessee he’s GNA be he looks like he’s gonna be out again this week so all of a sudden Kenneth Walker is a little bit interesting um yeah I mean there’s just so many different ways that you could paint the picture of running back this

Week where it’s like ah this guy could hit this guy could hit um it’s tough to narrow this position down yeah I like um Bree Hall as well I think you had mentioned him he’s in my um my pool of guys I yeah I mean if there’s a game

That the Jets could stay close in you know um and score some touchdowns in because really I mean his pass catching role is so robust obviously throw out last week but before that eight catches six catches seven catches five catches uh I mean that’s a tremendous stretch of

Of game so then if he adds a touchdown to that the big issue is this team doesn’t score a lot of touchdowns but can’t they score some touchdowns against uh against Washington kind of wish that um Zack Wilson was going to be healthy this week because that obviously be

Better for the offense than Trevor Simeon but um yeah I mean I think uh in terms of Bree Hall’s targets it doesn’t matter if it’s Trevor Simeon or Zack Wilson but in terms of like their chances of scoring touchdowns they would have been slightly better chance of scoring touchdowns with Zack Wilson but

Yeah I mean I think that Bree Hall very much is like he’s one of the safest plays in this Bunch because his his role in the pass game is so assured so his floor is so high and then he can hit for big plays on top of that so uh

And yeah man I’m glad that we kind of started at this running back position because it is it’s such a weird position on this week um I feel like quarterback’s kind of different it’s like there’s not that much that stands out uh Curious your thoughts on I mean I

Mean I shouldn’t say there’s not that much stands out there’s things that stand out and they stand out like at a higher level than other things on the on the Slate and so it’s like a little bit easier to parse down okay here would be my core listic quarterback uh what have

You been seeing at that position yeah yeah so I mean you got your obvious you know the top the the expensive guys that you would you’re probably going to play in a couple uh lineups and such but uh I I do want to mention this just because

It was so strange last night I had a dream about Trevor Lawrence like absolutely having a bomb game scoring like 50 plus points and like four touch just it was a crazy number and and he just went crazy and if he does play I think um he’s also on my list

I love that man I you know I remember um there was an MLB slate one time where I was like I couldn’t like correct the slate and I was like I was like man I’m gonna take a shower try to clear my head and I was like taking a shower like

There’s this one player whose name popped into my head and I was like dude that’s the ticket like wait oh for five I like all right well never mind um I don’t know about the dream the dream that’s a different category you know what the uh actually I mean it’s

Like the Amari Cooper thing we talked about last week where like Amari was 40% of my player pool two weeks ago not because he was like a 40% owned play like he was that good of a play but it was just like you know he would have

Been 15 or 20% of my pool and he wasn’t cleared from concussion till Saturday night and so then it was like oh literally nobody’s gonna be on him um with a guy like Trevor Lawrence you know obviously a high-profile player if he were to get cleared from concussion protocol on

Saturday night he wouldn’t be like 1% owned but he would be lower owned than like if we had a full if we had a full week of Trevor Lawrence against Tampa Bay with a pretty like thin slate generally speaking he would get steamed up as like probably the second highest

Own quarterback on the Slate behind Justin Fields would be would be my guess um so yeah I mean it’s one of those things where he gets cleared on Saturday night he’s going to have like what five six s% ownership because people will pivot but like not pivot enough like

It’ll be half the ownership he would have had if we had a full week of of talking about Trevor Lawrence even better there is uh looks like Z Jones is gonna be out this week obviously Christian Kirk already out so you have like a much more narrow distribution of

Targets you got Parker Washington Calvin Ridley Evan Ingram like you know the ball is going to one of those three guys so um no I like that chout and honestly it kind of makes me think if if Lawrence is out why couldn’t CJ bethard come in and have a a

Good game and that’s a guy I really hadn’t thought about yet um which actually kind of brings me to I mean like look at this Nick Mullins put up 22.1 last week Joe flacko has put up 22.9 25.3 and 17.2 in these last three weeks uh people really underestimate

Sometimes the the value that we can get from these backups stepping in um and then also the value these backups can provide uh one of the things I thought was really interesting you know Jordan Addison put up 32 point something points on Saturday Jordan Addison was like I

Had like 10 to 15% Jordan Addison two weeks ago when Justin Jefferson came back and it ended up being it ended up being Josh dobs under Center that game against the Raiders it was three nothing so obviously like it didn’t work out for my rosters but what we see is these

Situations where it’s like thin slates and then people are just like well it’s thin let me just go to the best on paper plays and you look at a guy like Jordan Addison who is extremely talented and like we saw Jamar Chase hit with Jake Brown right just because Jordan

Addison’s playing with a backup quarterback doesn’t mean he can’t hit and so when these slates get thinner like this like ownership gets so condensed on the best on paper plays and so obviously Jordan Addison was on sat on the Saturday slate this last week but

If he were on the main slate what would his ownership have been it would have been what 2% 3% um and he put up 32 point I think it was 32.1 DraftKings points you know and in the 5K price range so it’s like we can be looking for

Situations like this where the field is just waiting for more information and realistically like maybe we still end up getting like so many quarterbacks have put up good games against Tampa Bay CJ Beth’s kind of one of these frantic frenetic like he’s going to run around

And try to make plays he’s gonna throw interceptions because he’s trying to Chuck the ball up to his Playmakers he’s going to try to run the ball and he’s gonna fumble it but like he’s also going to be trying to make plays out of structure and that can lead to big plays

And kind of lead to these um these higher outcomes like Joe flacko dude Joe flacko if they call a deep pass he literally doesn’t even check to see if the guy’s covered or not he just throws it you know like which is why you see like three interceptions one

Interception one interception uh he should have had more than these five interceptions in these three games as well but he also then hits for big plays because he’s just like dude I’m just gonna Chuck the ball down field you know um so Beth could be one of those maybe

Your dream was like to point you toward the Jags and if if Trevor Lawrence is out like I mean realistically Justin Fields pull up Justin Fields game LS real quickly uh he’s got obviously limited limited um with the injuries this year but he’s got the 33 and the 32.9 pointers against Washington and

Denver those were through the air those were four passing touchdown games those were games where he had 57 rushing yards in one but 25 in the other no rushing touchdowns uh that’s it right all the rest of his games he has in top 25 DraftKings points and then he had the

Two 40 pointers last year and the rest of the season he didn’t top 25 DraftKings points so it’s like I I love Justin Fields this week he’s the play that stands out on paper but it’s like couldn’t he just put up 24 points and then maybe CJ bethard at significantly

Less salary or Joe flacko or whoever else puts up the same score and you save that salary and just have a lot more flexibility so I do think it’s interesting this week to kind of look to guys like that yeah and one thing I’ve been curious I I never like looked up

The stat I it’s probably pretty easy to figure it out but I was curious if um the games that Justin Fields does pop off on the 30 plus point games does Cole K follow with that like obviously he might get a touchdown but from from the

Games that I’ve seen usually he he feeds Cole K in these these passing games that he gets these 30 plus points in yeah so last year obviously last year they didn’t have DJ Moore so uh last year KT hit for two touchdown receptions in both of the games where Fields hit uh and

Then this year he had 27.6 and 15.2 so the 15.2 isn’t like oh we had to have that score but basically three out of four times that Fields has hit KT has hit uh both times that Fields has hit this year DJ Moore has hit the great thing about that offense is they

Literally just throw the ball to two guys right like look through the box scores at the end it’s like Darnell Mooney has three targets and ecam minia St Brown has like one target you know the the rest of them go to DJ Moore and Cole KT so um yeah ends up being a

Really nice setup because when like we talk about if we get Sam Howell correct earlier in the season like you still are just getting one spot correct because there’s so much guesswork on who might hit with him whereas if you like the weeks when you got Desmond Ritter right

Like you know that you’re getting Drake London right as well uh the weeks when you get Justin Fields right you know that you’re getting DJ Moore and Cole KT correct as well and so it’s like you you get three spots right by getting one thing right so that is one of the values

Of uh a Justin fields and and the fact that he can produce like Tournament winning types of scores for these guys so CJ bethard you might get him right but you’re getting him right like 20 points at his price tag is solid but that doesn’t necessarily mean that any

Of his pass catches are popping off for big games so yeah there’s definitely a little bit of an edge there in um in fields actually interesting the the Bears you know we talked about this last week with before and joku went off against the Bears that entire Bears

Defense is structured to take away wide receivers and filter targets to running backs and tight ends um and so you know you tend to see whether the Productions there or not you tend to see a lot of targets two tight ends against this Bears defense so last week that ended up

Following with nooku getting 10 catches 104 yards I think it was and a touchdown um they’re playing Trey McBride this week who just last week in literally like the toughest tight end matchup went 10 for 102 so um you could go Fields KT DJ Moore throw Trey McBride in the flex

And you have like that is the most straightforward stack possible on this slate and I I don’t think it’ll be like Fields will be owned but most people don’t do a good enough job just putting the whole bet together but it’s like if Fields hits it’s in a game

Environment where there’s points being scored uh it’s in a game where KT and DJ Moore are also hitting and maybe you know maybe they don’t both hit for tournament winners but like you’re getting at least a solid score from one of them and a really good score from the

Other and then if the game staying close it’s almost certainly Trey McBride who’s doing stuff through the air against Chicago so um yeah it’s like a very clear and obvious package bet that’s Head and Shoulders above any other package bets on this slate and I just don’t think it’ll be pursued at the

Level that it should be um yeah I definitely agree I think there’s a ton of upside to that uh like entire little box bet as a whole um I think the only downside would be uh the price point of Justin fields and are is there going to

Be anybody like you said with the backups is there going to be anybody lower that hits for the same amount of points right right and I think that’s kind of the way to we always want to think about what’s the structure of the slate and what are we chasing right so

It’s like if we roster one of the cheap guys what we need is for Justin fields to miss um because the cheap guys and crazy things happened right Baker Mayfield you know had one game this year of 23.9 points uh everything else had been 21.4 and below and then all of a sudden

He goes out for 33 last week so like crazy things can happen you can get these big scores from these guys obviously you can see the signs we talked about it with Mayfield this year of like okay he hasn’t hit for a big game yet but he has games of 300 passing

Yards he has games with three passing touchdowns like those can all fall into place together he can hit a big game um but realistically what’s likeliest is that none of these cheap guys top like 23 24 points right so then if Fields Only Hits 23 24 then it was more optimal

To go the other direction the thing with Fields is he has very clear like 35 Plus Point upside within his range and so we have to think about that as well so yeah the downside is like well what if you spend this extra salary and then Fields

Is just producing the same score well in that case you’re not winning a tournament anyway right and so it doesn’t like you wouldn’t want to hedge by saying and I know you know this you’re just kind of like talking to the audience but you wouldn’t want to hedge

By saying okay well what if Fields only scores 24 so now I won’t do the full stack because I want to account for what if he scores 24 well if he only scores 24 you’re not winning a tournament anyway so we want to build for like what

Happens if we get the bet right well if we get the BET right then Fields is po posting a score that nobody else can catch on this slate or probably nobody else can catch on this slate like we’re looking at like I’m looking at Nick Mullins and Joe flacko and CJ bethard as

Like attractive quarterbacks on this slate you know on this cheap price range Gardner mchu and like these are all backups like literal backup quarterbacks right then you’ve got Justin Fields against the Cardinals so yeah I mean if Fields goes for his highend I don’t think any of these guys can catch him

And if he goes for his highend and well then that’s these this we know who’s coming up with him right so it ends up being like yeah the downside is this side but I mean I do think this is the stack that the field needs to try to

Beat and I don’t think the field like if we took Fields ownership will probably be like 15% this week just because he stands out so much on paper um DJ Moore for some people for some reason people just can’t Embrace DJ Moore it’s funny because he was always like over owned

Relative to his expectations in the past with bad quarterbacks and it’s almost like people are like oh well Justin Fields isn’t good so I won’t roster DJ Moore um DJ Moore probably gets it’s like we’ve seen Russell Wilson have 12% ownership but courland Sutton have like

Six or seven percent right I don’t think it’ll be like that but I don’t think DJ Moore is gonna be 30% owned I think he’ll probably be in line with Justin Fields so we kind of take all this ownership right obviously McBride will be popular but but if you say like how

Many rosters have fields commed DJ Moore and McBride I would say probably under 1% right so even though these individual plays will be popular I just don’t think we’ll see this full stack super often and then that ends up being like realistically this is the stack that

People have to try to be in their rosters in the way that they build in other games or in or in context of us like when we’re building rosters without fields and this stack we need to be thinking okay if that stack hits what are the ways that I could build that

Could like outscore that stack um like what has as much stealing as that or kind of the pathways to outscoring that type of Stack so yeah yeah I mean I think with that should we should we start a roster with that and kind of see what it would look like from

A um one more thing I do want to add is if we do do a stack another thing we could add is we could play a defense against one of these backups saying that they are gonna miss I like that I like that a lot yeah very

Sharp uh gain a little bit of Leverage by attacking one of these one of these backup quarterbacks that’s going to be popular yeah I agree okay so we’re going to grab DJ Moore KT and Trey McBride DJ Moore man the Jets are only 3,100 going against I would presume Sam how Sam how

Got benched last week the magic has worn off but uh wild yeah I mean the Bucks are only I would expect the Bucks to be popular against CJ bethard but only 2600 um I mean I think that’s a nice leverage spot to go to um cool and then we can grab a defense

And you’re looking already so the ones that I have I mean I didn’t even like really look at I I always glance at defense until like Sunday morning but what I have right now is Cardinals Vikings Browns Texans Colts and I was looking at the Jets but

I was nervous because I have the Jets on a thing where I actually am hoping that they’re going to have a high-scoring game as well and I want to make a few lineups based on that gotcha um yeah I mean one one thing you can always do is kind of head so it’s

Like if I get this BET right I’m making money here if I get this if I get it wrong I’m making money over here um yeah I don’t know how I would think that of the backups the one that will probably be most popular would be Joe

Flacko um and that would kind actually uh we didn’t even mention Case Keenum so there’s like we can attack the backups in that we could or the backups or guys who are playing like back up caliber players right now uh like we could play the Jets against Sam Howell Assuming

He’s in line to start we could play uh if Drew lock is gonna be under Center again we can play Tennessee against Drew lock uh we can play the Bucks against CJ bethard um we can play the Browns against uh Case Keenum but if we’re gonna say like hey let’s get leverage I

Do think that the one backup who’s gonna actually end up being popular would be Joe flacko so that would be playing the Texans defense against Joe Flaco which I think is a really interesting way to go because Joe Flaco you know the five picks in three games but he also has

Thrown a lot more turnover worthy passes than just that so um doesn’t save a salary but does get us like clear leverage yeah so that’s one way we we could go or we could just say like Screw The Leverage angle and just grab whichever defense we like the most um

I’ll throw it over to you for for you to make that decision yeah I think what we can do is throw the Texans in there and then um obviously we’re going to try and build this and if we need to go down yeah we’ve got salary flexibility we

Don’t have to play the Texans they’re one of the more expensive defenses but married to it so yeah yeah definitely a nice leverage there um I do think we should maybe try and save some salary on the running back position and maybe try to grab trouba hubard obviously he’s

Probably be popular this week but uh we have a great little boxed in lineup that I like exactly exactly and I think and this is an important thing I think that people who are newer to these types of Concepts maybe don’t think about is that our cumulative ownership on this roster

Would probably be pretty high I would expect Trey McBride to be one of the most popular plays on the Slate I would expect fields to be the most popular quarterback I would expect chuba hubber to be popular so like if you just look at oh add up all the ownership this this

Roster has too much ownership on it right it can’t win a tournament when you look at like that the structure of the ownership and the fact that we’re going to have this block of players from this game that most people won’t have and we’re actually completing the bet that

Other people aren’t completing with their you know popular exposures to these plays it really doesn’t matter that hubard will be popular because we have this block of plays together that all correlate well together and won’t be owned at a high level so yeah I like that call um ride with the ownership

There ride the sharp play there I wouldn’t mind throwing I mean we don’t want to go too cheap just to save salary when you’ve like we don’t want to go to 5K or something just to save salary when you’ve got Bree Hall at 6,100 Robinson

63 Aon Jones 64 um any of those guys that you want to grab above any of the others really would like to grab Bree Hall but I mean again if we have to Pivot down we can always uh do that as well yeah I mean I don’t know where yeah

I’m kind of the same list that’s like super cheap and i’ I’ve been looking I just don’t see anybody that has the upside to yeah pop off yeah and then in terms of uh savings one of the most interesting pieces on this slate is going to be Jamal agu who

Super Speedy guy uh great punt returner great in the open field um every once in a while the Jags will have these designed plays for him he’s only 3,400 every once in a while they’ll have these designed plays for him to just get him the ball in space uh but

Again with the injuries to the Jags wide receiver core he’s going to be out there a lot more and it’s one of those where like his low end is probably six or seven points but that doesn’t kill you but his high end is like a good 18 to 25

Points because he can score from anywhere on the field um you think he’s going to be pretty chalky this week just because of how many injuries are on that team or yeah I would think so and I would think that I would actually guess and I could be totally wrong with this

But I would actually guess that just because agnu has kind of that ball in his hands upside I would I would expect him to be more popular than Parker Washington so if we wanted on this you know Parker Washington’s only 400 more so if we wanted on a roster like this we

Could be like you know deeper into the week it’s like oh this ownership is is not great for us or whatever uh or we want to do something a little bit different we can look at ownership projections and lean on those uh and kind of Go a different direction if if

Need be but yeah I mean there’s nobody who like leaps off the screen under 5K but there’s plenty of solid options right Brandon Cooks and Curtis Samuel Johan Dodson Jackson Smith and jiga Davon Wicks um and then you know getting down to these Jags wide receivers and

Obviously there’s GNA be one of these games where Jameson Williams hits for a big game who knows if that happens this season or not but um you know he’s one of those guys that always take a few Dart Dart throws on in large field play

But um yeah and I mean that gives us some nice salary flexibility to I guess mess around with we’ve got these guys in the 6K range um or we might pivot down at defense and try to get up to Mike Evans or Jaylen Wadd um don’t we want have the salary to

Get all the way up to oh oh God Keegan what take the Texans off go down to the Bucks uh we got the salary to get all the way up to Justin Jefferson at see I okay so actually that’s great because I actually wanted to have a conversation

About that I have a question mark next to Jus Justin Jefferson and I’ve been wanting to know your full thoughts on everything with the backup quarterbacks and is he still you know the best wide receiver in the league so on so forth yeah yeah I mean that you know obviously

Uh Tyreek Hill has something to say about best wide receiver in the league but the the uh you know we saw Jordan Addison put up 32 points last week with Nick Mullen you know what I mean so it’s like when you look and say oh can can

Justin Jefferson put up 30 plus points you know Kurt Cousins was was literally playing as like a top five quarterback um so the there’s a downgrade there it’s not like Justin Jefferson’s gonna hit 30 points week in and week out like he was doing with Kirk Cousins I mean we look

At the the start of the season um what was it five four games four healthy games before he got hurt he had 26.5 or more DraftKings points in every game last year he hit for like 27 plus in 50% of his games this year he started out

Hitting 26 and a half plus in 100% of his games with Kurt Cousins so that’s not going to be there but the tradeoff of the lower ownership and the ceiling that he brings because I think a lot of people it’s not like we’re GNA see Justin Jefferson imagine last year Justin Jefferson at

8100 like he would have been 35% owned 8100 in a good match up you can’t run against Detroit this is a like Minnesota can still win the division because they have two games left against Detroit so they need Detroit to lose the game in the middle they need to win out they

Need to beat Detroit twice but like this is one of those games where you can see that aggressiveness developing if Detroit is able to push the ball and score against Minnesota um so yeah it’s one of those spots where he’s not going to project all that well and therefore

He’s not going to be super high owned but he’s still the kind of guy who can go out and put up 35 Plus points and it’s a slate where there probably won’t be that many 35 pointers if any 35 pointers right so um just the ceiling

There and when you trade It Off with like who else is available in this price range you got Jaylen Wadd who obviously could hit but Tyreek Hill’s expected to be back even even if he’s a little bit gimpy uh we would expect the Dolphins to

Try to develop the the Run game you got Mike Evans who’s like has that ceiling but super hit or miss Michael pitman’s gonna be out uh and then we’re down to like Nico Collins in a horrible matchup DK metf who’s topped 20 points once with Gino Smith uh Amari Cooper with Joe

Flo’s solid play but like you know when you compare what else we’re kind of shopping through with Justin Jefferson it’s like man yeah the the quarterback situation isn’t ideal but it’s not impossible for him to hit you know like one of the big one of the things I was

Heavy on last week was Noah Brown and it was the same thing it was like he was 5K and everyone was gonna stay off him because CJ strad was out but it’s like well he’s the alpha wide receiver everybody else is hurt he’s the alpha wide receiver in this great offense are

Going to be able to scheme him open uh he didn’t get the 100 yard bonus but he still went eight for 82 in a touchdown and like the game could have broken a different way to where he could have put up 30 points you know so uh yeah I like

Looking for spots like this where people will be putting that question mark next to Justin Jefferson uh and that’s the type of spot that I want to embrace and say like I would rather lose because I played a bunch of like I wasn’t upset two weeks ago when I had a bunch of

Jordan Addison and he bombed you know because I knew that that what he did last week was in the range of outcomes I won’t be upset if I lose because I play a bunch of low own Justin Jefferson and he doesn’t have a good game but I would

Be upset if I lost because I didn’t have Justin Jefferson and he went off to 35 points at low ownership at 8100 in a good matchup so yeah I mean I think that he’s an extremely sharp play this week and could easily be I mean Miami’s been

Tough against wide receivers um Alin Ro St Brown obviously can hit but he’s has kind of like a his ceiling games typically aren’t as high as what Justin Jefferson can post so yeah I mean to me Justin Jefferson is the top guy when you take into account ownership range of

Outcomes uh put it all together so yeah I really like that that little move right there to to get him in this roster yeah man this this roster is super solid and I love building these rosters with you every week I mean does like looking at the whole roster for the first time

Right now it’s ridiculous it is insane it’s crazy it’s a pretty insane roster you know look at this like another week you would think this is a very high um ownership projected roster but like you said it’s the way we did it that changes that up yeah that player block is going

To be low owned um I would imagine Justin Jefferson will be moderately owned at at most and um and also it’s just like you a lot of times you see the rosters in first place in a tournament and you’re like oh God that was so obvious why like why do they overthink

Things so much and it’s not that they’re like they’re still doing something different which like this roster right here but but this very much looks like a roster that it would finish in first place and people would be like God why didn’t I see this roster you know like

It’s so straightforward and it’s crazy because you see those those rosters in first place and you’re like how is this not duplicated in this exact tournament yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah like how is there not a second one of these and they’re tied for first yeah this is this

Is definitely one of those types of rosters and because of the the KT plus McBride because of the full stack in that Bears Cardinals game even though these will be popular players they’re popular because they’re really sharp plays like it’s just not going to be compr like combinatorially popular uh hubard plus

Bree Hall will probably be a somewhat popular pairing but again it doesn’t matter as much to us because of the way this is put together and then again like Justin Jefferson’s one of these plays that I I could see him getting up to 15%

Owned but like I said in the past if he were at this price tag in this matchup with Kurt Cousins under Center he’d be 35% owned 40% owned um and so 15% and then we already said like like our full stack of fields KT DJ Moore Trey McBride

That full stack probably on 1% of rosters so then if if we assume that Justin Jefferson is only on 15% of those that means that like 0.15% of a tournament field would have that starting point right of this full block from the Bears game plus Justin

Jefferson and like we’re so far ahead of the field if we get two bets right which is just you know the Bears and Cardinals scoring some points and Justin Jefferson having a big game we get those two bets right and we’re just like we’re basically everybody else is chasing us

For first place on this slate and then we just have kind of like solid popular plays so it makes it that much harder for people to catch us right because they have to take like suboptimal plays to try to Leap Frog us and make up those

Points and I think that’s one of the things that when you look at those rosters in first place if you reverse engineer them the players are obvious but also you can kind of see stuff like this where it’s like oh like they got two things right that put them way ahead

Of the field and then the other pieces just like blocked people from catching them and passing them because they they just didn’t make mistakes in their other spots and that’s really what we’re doing here is we’re trying to get one thing right that launches us ahead of

Everybody uh and then sort of block everybody from Catching us with just straightforward plays elsewhere man we could almost wrap up this week and just do no more preper research you got duplicate line let’s let’s not publish this show duplicate lineup yeah I think I’m just gonna use

This one this week we’re good to go uh I’ll use it in high dollar stuff you use it in low dollar stuff and and we’ll be set we’ll roll forward um anything else from you before we get out of here no man I’m super excited to uh talk about tomorrow

And how this yeah this made me uh a lot more excited for this week doing this roster um cool man yeah fun as always um I think we got some good stuff today obviously feel like we got some good stuff today um anything uh anything exciting for you

Next few days Christmas stuff no nothing exciting nothing uh really crazy at all um oh I I may have a job interview for nice it stuff but uh besides that nothing crazy um Everybody in the uh comments I will try and and look and see I haven’t been really doing that lately

Just because uh life has been kind of crazy so life has been crazy but yeah comment some stuff ask JM some questions and um I’ll I’ll be the mediator and I’ll ask um and he can answer love it cool uh as always thanks for hanging out with us we will see you

Keegan and I will be recording again tomorrow Friday that’ll go live on Friday night or Saturday morning so we will see you back here for that we will see you on onewe season throughout the weekend and we’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday