Stack of Stats – 5 FREE NFL Picks and Predictions for Week 16 – Kelly in Vegas and Pamela Maldonado

If you are looking for NFL picks and predictions for Week 16, we have you covered on this episode to open up the football season on the Stack of Stats with Kelly in Vegas and Pamela Maldonado. Last year, the duo went 48-39 overall on the gridiron with an NFL Best Bet record of 21-14-1, and they look to continue their winning ways to kick off the season.

The concept is simple. They have to make 5 NFL picks against the spread each week for both the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest and Circa Sports Million V Pro Football Contest. Pam has one pick locked, Kelly has one pick locked, and for the next 40 minutes, they debate and discuss which other three NFL picks will become official selections.

#nflpicks #nflpredictions #nflbetting

👉 Kelly in Vegas @kellyinvegas
👉 Pamela Maldonado @pamelam35

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Welcome to the stack of stats podcast Pam Maldonado Joe by my girl Kelly in Vegas Bringing you five against the spread contest picks for week 16 of the NFL Kelly we went two and two and one last week I think that’s a win but we

Went four- one the week prior uh but I feel pretty good about week 16 how are you feeling uh well I was feeling really good going into this week Pam and I was on my podcast yesterday with John Murray who’s the director of the Westgate super book and he’s like hey kid

Congratulations you you know you won uh like $3,800 you you tied with a few other guys taking second in the weeks 13 through 15 contest I’m like oh cool so I get 10% back on my losses this year it’s like uh like when you’re bookie feels

Sorry for you and he’s like wow wow like and Chris text me he’s like oh better than a sharp stick in the eye well he’s right it was better than a sharp stick in the eye because some guy just said is there something wrong with the website

It looks like you went 11 and four and I’m in a bunch of different contests and I like to pick probably two three and sometimes four teams that I really feel strongly about and then I mix up the fifth quite often and so I was like well

I know I went 5 and0 the first week which was great and I’m pretty sure I went 401 last week I’m like but did I go three and two that can’t be right that couldn’t have put and I knew that I’d put in the Chargers on Thursday in that

Contest because of John Murray so I logged back into the winter circle thing and I’m like no it says I went three and two last week something is off here so I called John and I was like hey uh is this right and he goes I definitely

Signed a check with your name on it and I’m like okay and then they started calling and we got on a threeway call and he’s like who’s Raider rewind and I’m like oh my God I signed up for my agent I forgot I signed up for my agent

When I was in Vegas because I was there for 10 days of hell and God that is exactly what happened um so congratulations to my agent for tying in second on the weeks 13 through 15 in the Westgate super contest and now I have a sharp stick in my eye so my attitude

Going into the show about 27 minutes ago was a lot better than it is now Pam we need a five and0 we both said this before we need we need a freaking five and0 both of used right now I need to see the ball go through the hoop I need to see the

Game-winning kick go through the uprights right now I you know maybe I should had a better attitude uh when I thought that I won 3,800 bucks but such is life well then well then let’s roll that into this week let’s come into this with a better attitude we are going to

Go 5 and0 finally this season and because we’re going to either agree or disagree I don’t even care we’re going to figure out our five against a spread contest picks and we’re going to have a great week let’s start with that just a reminder of what it is we are doing it

Is five against a spread NFL contest picks these lines are released every Wednesday and they do not change Kelly’s best bet automatically in my best bet automatically in and we’ve been kind of back and forth with disagreeing mostly disagreeing that has been kind of working for us so we’ll see if that

Comes to fruition this week again I once again I didn’t ask you what your best bet was so I’m entirely blind right now now what are you rolling with for week weene yeah this may end up being a square dog but I really don’t care uh

Third excuse me 15 three and two that’s Lamar Jackson is an underdog 83% against the spread I know hey Brock pie let’s give him the Lombardi uh Super Bowl champs 49ers are now the favorite in pretty much every single scenario I know both of these guys want the one

Seed they’re both 11 and three I think this number is just a little bit too high and maybe just maybe the Baltimore Ravens looked a little too good in that win over your Jaguars the other night Jags had three stalled uh well I won’t even call it trips of the Red Zone God

Those were pathetic attempts and then Brandon mcmanis Miss field goal it is what it is got to cash the under luckily I tailed one of my buddies on that one but boy oh boy does nobody want to give the Baltimore Ravens credit for that win I do think we’re GNA see a Baltimore

Pass defense be able be able to slow down this San Francisco pass offense I do think the we’re going to get some pass rush on Brock pie throw him out of his game again I would almost blindly bet Lamar Jackson as an underdog with these numbers

83% um in his time in Baltimore I mean I what do you want from me that is those are that’s as close as to free free money as you can get that’s that’s all I’m going to say I have not sprinkled yet on the uh Ravens money line I’m kind

Of debating I think this could be a last minute field goal kick uh honestly maybe by either team uh but we know that the better Kicker here is going to be uh Justin Tucker regardless I think this is gonna be a really good game on Monday night um I’m not in disagreement with

You and but I will be entirely honest this is transparency and that is what I do best at least with my Twitter account so I haven’t even gotone to the MonDay games so those are the three that I have to look at the next um I’m G believe you I trust you I

Like like living your best life like just your white background God knows where you are I’m just glad you’re still alive I am in the bunker I’m tell I’m G tell I’m I’m in a bunker in the middle of nowhere I’ll go with that much I had

To escape Las Vegas Kelly in Vegas no more Pam in Vegas no more both had to get the heck out of Dodge and try to experience something new I will tell you it’s been refreshing so I’m going to um clear clear your head get rid of the

Noise because I have a feeling you have to be back in time for a bunch of shows this weekend so you’ve still got time to do some work I don’t blame you most of the Monday games uh are not that intriguing but this Monday night game

Whether this was a one o’clock on Sunday game whether it was a Thursday night game whether it’s a Monday night game I do like the Ravens so I will um I’m gonna come into this with some good vibes this week and I have this is the most favorite that I have ever liked

Probably ever so I’m not going to name a best bet at this moment I want to roll through some options with you and I have to I absolutely have to because help me see the bright side of things help me see things clear you were wanting to back the Bears in back toback

Weeks and I was like I can’t do it it’s my team I understand just F he starting a roll okay well I actually like the Bears this week as fourpoint favorites to the Arizona Cardinals this Chicago offense is so close to being great yes I’m going to say that they are so so

Close to being maybe not great but really really good because of Justin Field’s rushing ability that has been such a true Difference Maker it’s something that he’s always utilized back in college they’re finally utilizing it more in his NFL career he’s able to scramble out of the pocket he’s able to

Extend the plays he’s reading the defenses better and because of that he has Open men downfield now the problem is why they are so close to this Bears offense is because his wide receivers got to show up and do their damn jobs and catch the damn thing had a couple of

Drops last week from tight end Robert tanion Darnell Mooney those drops cost the Bears a win but still there’s an opportunity here for Justin fields to continue on that train with his Mobility he’s averaging 63 rushing yards in his last four games now getting a very soft

Defense in the Cardinals this is a perfect get right spot for the Chicago who should have had a win last week but at least now the Cardinals Blitz at the lowest rate they’re 30th in pressure Fields he will be kept clean he will have a big game both on the ground if

His wide receivers can do their jobs and catch he can have a really Stellar passing game too spread the ball around have a balanced offense good things are coming for this offense I really hope to see Justin Fields stay as a quarterback with the Bears and give them another

Year and kind of like really build on the momentum that they have had now on defense if you can turn that Arizona offense into a passing team collapse the pocket with Kyler Murray force him to hold the ball make him second guess his abilities make him make mistakes because

It is going to happen attack him with that pass rush and play zone marray has 14 sacks in the five games that he’s played now you’re doing that against the number one run defense you’re going to take away his legs and he has not been good on that passing game I really love

This Bears offense to just like continue on with the route they’re going I think it’s really funny so I was on the Bears two weeks ago versus the Packers you wanted nothing to do with them I was on the Bears last week in the contest because there was three and a half

Hanging out and uh this week I’m on the Cardinals I took the plus four here of course I did Pam you got to know when to play these losers and when to play against them the Bears are absolutely gonna stay with Justin Fields because they don’t know any better right they’ve

Been on a quarterback for the last 25 years and in between those quarterbacks they’ve had new coaches so they have to have some continuity so they’re gonna stay with them most Bears fans want him to stay and frankly there’s not much better out there now I liked Arizona

Late last week um and I missed the good number and I’m still kicking myself for doing that they had 234 yards on the ground versus the ners and that is you know the number one defense against the rush I love James Connor now that he’s fully healthy I think he is going to

Absolutely have himself a day obviously with Kyler Murray back in the mix for this Cardinals team is a good thing the question is we always talk about how players don’t tank that organizations want them to who really needs this win here or who really needs this loss more

Importantly and I think this is going to be really interesting so I did take the four here with the Cardinals but I could see them losing by a field goal with the Bears the Bears are just like the Broncos friends don’t let friends lay points with the Broncos and friends

Don’t let friends lay points with the Bears I’m pretty sure that I’m going to come back to the end of this podcast and say Bears is my best bet because to your argument of how well the Cardinals offense did last week against the 49ers garbage time baby girl 13 points in

Their fourth quarter no they were not efficient in garbage time in Cleveland it was only because San Francisco was up Aaj jillion points so they decided to be like hey you know what we’re going to ease off a bit we’re gonna kind of sit back and relax because we’re not losing this game

Did did you watch that full game I did it was it was actually a little bit of a little bit of both um if you watch the first half the Cardinals absolutely had the ability to hang around and then they ended up kind of getting the brick speed

Off of them late so yes they did score 13 down the stretch but it was you know 147 at the end of the first they were kind of hanging in there I mean remember they were thir they were 13 Half Point underdogs at a point in time so when it

Was 21 13 and half I wasn’t really sweating it was that third quarter that really burned this team and yes they did score points late uh like late field goal uh start to start start the fourth quarter the big difference between the 49ers yes and I’m going to say it the

Big difference between the 49ers and the Bears is this defense this is the number one rushing defense in the NFL now you’re tied in with having one of the best like most sick pass rushes with Montes s ever since they acquired this guy he has been such a differen maker on

This defense 15 sacks from the Bears in the last five games bears are the best rushing first eight because the first one I’m the one I’m looking at right now has the Niners is the number one pass defense up until last week number one run defense number one run defense so

You’re GNA take away this number one which metrics are saying that because what I’m looking at is actually still staying at San Francisco even with last week I’ve seen two different sites so I was just curious what site you use for that I use PFF I don’t look at anything

Beyond PFF stuff wor no I just wanted to double check because that’s not what I’m using so I just wanted to let move on because we’re not going to agree so there’s a really good chance that could be your best bet I I I’m starting to see this little Stark

From this little afternoon map going on from you we’re gonna figure this out we’re gonna figure this out every time we disagree on games it ends up being a good week let’s go how about opinion Bengal Steelers side what do you like I tease the Steelers I don’t love that

Spot at all no more Mitch trabis now it’s back to Mason Rudolph trouble in Paradise Big Ben once Mike Tomlin fired I had always heard rumors that they didn’t really get along and now he like fires off like five years later you know just being Big Ben playing uh you know

Sunday quarterback I like Mike Tomlin um I appreciate what he’s done look he’s never had a losing season somehow someway that means the Steelers need to turn it around right now they’re sitting at seven and seven uh Bengals man could this team be playing any better Jake Browning just just somebody’s gonna

Write him a huge contract after this because you know we know Joe burrow is superior but is he I don’t know it’s crazy like literally Jake Browning has been able to Plug and Play you would think maybe they start to see some regression on the road man Pittsburgh

Just hasn’t been good against winning teams that’s kind of my problem so I said all right look let me just throw this in a in a teaser with the Steelers lower total right sitting at 38 let’s keep it within a touchdown but I don’t have a big opinion as far as the actual

Game goes okay I like the Bengal I was on them last week and I’m going to keep riding that train I really don’t think that there’s really much to worry about here and it really doesn’t even have to do much with Jay Browning as great of a

Quarterback as he has been it really is a fade on the Pittsburgh offense I don’t care if it is Mason Rudolph I don’t care who it is this is just Matt Patricia wasn’t the problem he was not the problem and you’re starting to see it like finally let’s like any is going to

Tell you but yes it is Mas ask eag defense if he’s part of the problem yeah I mean Mason R itol for himself let’s talk about that because that’s a huge key of what’s changed this week for the Steelers is he going to be able to do anything for this offense he himself

Should be a liability because before his last three attempts that he had last week he last played in 2021 what are we doing here not only are you going to come in into this with some Rust but within you’re going to have some in-game pressure you new offensive coordinator

He was sacked once on those three attempts that is extremely bad news when you were sacked one out of three times now you’re going up against your left tackle in Dan Moore he’s been struggling as of late this offensive line is in shambles he alone has given up seven

Sacks Moore is a vulnerability Rudolph is a vulnerability when you have Cincinnati defensive end Trey Hendricks in on the other side the second most sacks in the league having a career year he has been like the Difference Maker for Cincinnati having any bit of a defense because of him second most sacks

Coming off back toback games having two plus sacks Rudolph is gonna have to help things on I mean he’s gonna I don’t know he’s gonna be on his back and yes I do like Jake brownie in any off against any defense because we saw it last week

Against I’ll say this I I don’t think I don’t think Mason Rudolph’s any drop off from Mitch trabis that’s my only point I think if we saw the look ahead line here which I could look up here in a second it’d be Steelers minus one Steelers

Minus a half so now that we’ve seen this move line go all the way to two and a half I’m starting to wonder if it’s an overreaction AFC North as you know these are always Rock fights these teams hate each other they beat the crap out of

Each other if you love the Bengals we can plug it in because I don’t really like the Steelers that’s just kind of my devil’s advocate of the game move it along then bills Chargers what side do you like listen the bills are in such a it’s really hard to find things to agree

On if we don’t you have no opinion they’re off an absolute utter beat down of the Dallas Cowboys what happened on Thursday night the Chargers get embarrassed they get their head coach fired they’ve got a longer break I don’t know what we’re gonna see from Easton

Stick that’s the hard part here and then who do the Bills play next week oh that’s right they’ve got a couple of games coming up that matter so much more than this one I there I I just look this could be a 3110 final and none of us

Would be surprised but at on the flip side if it was 17 1710 because the bear because Josh Allen threw two interceptions against this okay defense would you be shocked here’s my problem with with teams like we saw last week did you watch the full game

Versus the Raiders yes okay I did not I watched glimpses of the first half and then it was like a train wreck in the second half I could not look away I had to keep watching half time to see if Brandon syy was going to come out I’m

Like is it coming out is it coming out are we gonna see him fired at the half yeah because that I mean that’s what was all over the Internet it was so bad and and typically what you want to do in a blowout like that is take the second

Half under luckily I did not that is like an old um like kind of play like that they almost just blindly took the under then there come you know the Chargers finally come to play after the Raiders didn’t care because they knew they were up by so much it’s hard for me

To look at a team the next week objectively the other thing is I think is really interesting is I had Austin Eckler if you don’t remember in my better um lineup and I was like what is going on why isn’t he seeing the field

Well one of my prop guys told me um he has no incentives to to play the rest of the year like he doesn’t have like a number to hit and he that he’s at the end of his contract so he’s trying to go elsewhere or get renewed well if he gets

Hurt so I kind of have to wonder does that make the Chargers onedimensional I just don’t want to lay it with the bills here it is so easy to back the bills this is a josh Allen statement game he is going you he can they can do this in

Their sleep the bills can literally cover this game in their sleep and come back at me when like they lose outright or some craziness nonsense like that but if there was ever a doubt and that I’m one of them if there was ever a doubt on Josh Allen having his turnover problems

And all of his thing whatever all of that’s going to be ER rased against the Chargers defense they are so bad great spot for us to just remember how great of a quarterback J Josh Allen is how great of an opportunity hey maybe they can actually make it back to the Super

Bowl and contend why because the Chargers allowed four passing touchdowns from a rookie okay in ad8 no so I’m goingon to say this from a from a just a blind handicapping no math involved they beat the Chiefs who was like their Achilles heel they came back

The whole world was on the Cowboys last week they throttle the Cowboys now if you remember they lost outright in Foxboro so they have to have a chance to have a getright game against the Patriots then they go to South Florida to play the Dolphins why would they care

About the Chargers what what is it’s not even that they have to care it’s that they can do this in their sleep we saw it last week with the bills where Josh Allen had like what 20 total pass attempts because their defense did the rest I mean you have E I understand I

Just he is not your savior I didn’t say that he was I just feel like look Pam when this opened 14 and the Chargers got hammered and then at 13 and a half they got bet again and at 13 they got bet again and at 12 and a half they got bet

Again these guys were coming into the book betting hand over fist cuz the bookmakers hung the number too high that’s the only thing that scares me here I I I think it’s because people are going against that old adage of like you just fired your head coach this is a

Rebound spot like that tends to fall off it doesn’t always hold true we’ve seen it times the season if if you just blindly bet I don’t care if it’s WNBA I don’t care if it’s an MLB team that fires are manager if they hate that

Guy they come to play the next week and that’s still the concern here some of these guys are playing for contracts some of these guys are playing for notoriety listen I agree with you the bills have to have a statement here this isn’t like college football where of course you you

Know have to have like style points but almost style points would help their case here they need to win out and they need to win out in a nice fashion should they be able to do so absolutely but this one they’re just it gives me an uneasy feeling here I’ll say that much

Okay fine then let’s move on then this was probably like one of my favorite bets as well Colts Falcons what side do you like I laid won with the Falcons uh early in the week Christ we are never going to finish this podcast no we’re

Not I told you when you said you liked a lot of favorites I’m like okay cool she likes the Falcons she likes the bux I never like favorites yeah I know and you don’t like any of the favorites that I like uh I like I like the Falcons here

Not by a lot that is for damn sure it’s hard to trust this team look I get the Colts they’ve been rocking and rolling and uh look the Atlanta game last week versus the Panthers everybody’s going to go oh my God they lost the one- win

Panthers who now have two wins but that weather was terrible it was gross yeah there’s a lot of excuses there I get that but you have to kind of Wonder back here in the dome Arthur Smith I don’t think he’s gonna get fired but they’ve

Got to make they’ve got to get a win here and they’ve got to you you are one of the people you are one of the people that always like to uh talk about the big line moves the Colts were favored and just because the Falcons announced that they’re sitting Desmond Ritter the

Falcons are now favorites come on so so the Falcons opened a onepoint favorite uh on Sunday night then the Colts got bet now it’s back to Atlanta minus one so we’ve seen some buyback on both sides where I think probably different groups agree or disagree I’m not saying I’m GNA

Bet Atlanta with my hard-earned money but I have to have five picks in the contest and right I I I have to say this I think Indiana is a little overrated but hey they’re nine and five against the spread I was high on this team coming into this year um and that was

With Anthony Richardson not Gardner muu he is proved me wrong uh and they’ve really done a great job of not turning the ball over Taylor heiki I do think is better than Desmond Ritter I’ll say that much of course so I’ll make my case for

The Colts um we can talk about the Colts offense gter mchu that can be a later conversation but I want to talk about Taylor HEI against in for desor yes if you can keep him out of out of rhythm and take away his legs we know what

We’ve seen in the years past is hinek is great Mobility he takes to run out of the pocket kind of create plays where nonexist but if you can take away his legs he is such an inconsistent passer that’s always been his problem 55% completion right now now if Atlanta does

Try to run Indianapolis this rushing defense has improved so much ever since they got defensive tackle in Grover St back from week 14 because he was suspended majority of the season they went from allwing 114 rushing yards to 177 combined this has been such a difference in this run defense why is

Atlanta not utilizing bejon Robinson I am one of those people that is just as mad as everybody else why aren’t you utilizing beon splitting carries with Tyler elier yes he has been more effective yes he has that home run ability but he is now fumble prone that

Has been costly this has cost them a win last week now you’re going up against Indianapolis that is third in sacks and takeaways the Colts have had a takeaway in 19 straight games now you have a new quarterback take away his legs force them to run you can’t run on them

Because they now have a good run defense who’s really good at taking the ball away I love the Colts this between them and my Bears are probably gonna be my best bet and you’re getting Jonathan Taylor back listen we can go I that’s the thing it’s not like I love Atlanta it’s not

Like I love the Cardinals I just don’t like the other side I mean if you want to talk favorites I’ve got a favorite on Monday night I’m probably going to bet I was just going down the list of an order cawks Titans what’s your option I tease

The Titans that’s it that’s all I got like the Seahawks let’s just cancel this podd it’s just like got a quarter uh what is the favorite that you like uh it’s Kansas City I like Kansas City I’d lay I’d lay double digits with the Kansas City Chiefs did you hear that

Chiefs fans I’m willing to lay double digits with your team because well everything we saw last Thursday night was an absolute farce bottom line look I get it the Raiders they they were up 14 nothing just a few weeks ago to Legion Stadium right and then guess what

Happened 31 17 final uh Pacho scored two touchdowns on that game and was able to run all over Las Vegas now look the Raiders they’ve been red hot against the spread uh with Aiden o Connell but Kansas City’s been red hot in the division except for that one little loss to the

Denver Broncos there on Halloween and apparently that was because Patrick Mahomes had the flu I don’t know if he did or didn’t doesn’t matter to me H but I think Kansas City is gonna be able to pick up uh a little bit of steam here right they need to get this win and

Rashi rice rashi rashi rice uh is basically the only guy not named Travis Kelce who can catch the ball uh for the Chiefs and I think he’s going to have himself a big game I’m fine with that I’m going to plug that in why because I

Have haven’t even got I told you I haven’t even done Monday games but I already knew that I liked um the Chiefs in this spot I Patrick Mahomes I’m never going to doubt his abilities here he had his first 300 yard passing game I don’t even care about the interceptions when

You don’t pressure Mahomes he went 21 to 24 against Raiders the first time 9.3 ypa I’m going to trust him in this spot Raiders coming off absolutely insane of a game now you take him out of their home stadium I’m not even going to dis

Argue plug that in so now we have your best bet and Chiefs minus 10 those are the two games that we have yeah you can’t ever come to the show without a Best Bet again because you could have picked either one of those and I would

Have just had to go with you even though I disagreed because that’s how this works it’s gonna end up in there one of those if not both are going to end up in the card I promise Lions Vikings oh Lions Vikings I like the Vikings of

Course I do Jesus uh why would I like the Vikings here on the road come on you cannot take Jared gof out of his like little U uh not yes you can why because the Vikings is an indoor Stadium it doesn’t matter that he’s on the road he

Is indoors place is absolutely electric look Minnesota’s last four games have all been decided by a field goal and now all of a sudden we’re giving them a field goal yes because it doesn’t matter Jared G on the road is a non-factor when it is Jared G playing in an indoor

Stadium this is a familiar spot for golf he is far more efficient he’s far more consistent he is actually a great freaking quarterback when he’s playing indoors 69% completion 21 touchdowns compared to five touchdowns when he’s outside there is a huge difference now because you have a the Vikings defense

Is gonna be able to make this team really one-dimensional right the Run game they are the Vikings are hella strong against the Run they are so bad against the pass 31st in completion rate and we saw it we saw the secondary for Minnesota absolutely Get Wrecked last

Week against brownie they did the second half in the second half they did in the second half and but I said I felt for everybody who had Vikings money line in that game that was that was really painful I had no I had no dog in the

Fight but I felt bad Bengals were my best bet last week and I said the one worry that I had was that in his short sample size of games that we saw he hasn’t played Zone coverage against Zone coverage much this is why he struggled in that first half but then they adapted

They made changes after the half and then what came out out second half for Jake Browning against this great Minnesota defense 243 yards nine ypa now you’re getting a better Jared G who has the receiving weapons in am man St in Aman St Brown and Sam laporta who’s

Literally like the best tight end in ever is great Minnesota loves to Blitz good luck to Minnesota if you don’t get home against Jared GF against the blitz he sixs in ypa and seventh in seven touchdowns zero interceptions I those are my I’m going to love all three of

Them all the games that you don’t like I literally I bet I’ve already bet the Cardinal and the Vikings so it is what it is in my world I have not had a great year so we all know that um how about a Washington Jets and no we’re not even

Talking about that game that is the dumbest game on the board like in what world should we should just cancel that game and let me I’ve already cashed my under n half season wins like can we just fire Ron Rivera and let those guys have a byee like let’s stop torturing

Them uh oh this is not easy the Jets defense against some hell that’s it that’s the handicap good luck Jets at home Jets defense at home it was if it was only so easy it should be because at home they play Josh Allen Patrick mahom

Jay to a Tong of aloa is Sam how in any of he not even jet gonna score how are the Jets gonna score when you have an offense your offense is raised your offensive floor let me re rephrase that the Jets offensive floor has the potential to be be raised when you are

Going up against the 32nd ranked defense in Washington they don’t have Chase young they don’t have Montes sweat which means they have not been able to apply any type of quarterback pressure whatsoever their safety in Cameron curl he is flawed and he has been exposed in the secondary he is getting wrecked

Every single week by opposing quarterbacks no matter who they play this and Z Wilson whether he comes out of concussion protocol or not was I’m expecting he’s on his ass all game long so it doesn’t matter if it’s him or not I mean look this Commander’s defense is

Not great I will agree with you but these both these teams rank in the top in turnovers I think this is a coin flip game I can see it being like last week in Carolina be like nine to seven God yeah I that’s why I’m like I want

Nothing to do with this like what a worse way to ruin your Christmas Eve with your family than to have a bet on the New York Jets the better than the New York Jets fine Browns Texans what’s your side I I tease the Texans Jesus Christ it’s a

Great teaser week lots of low totals come on DeShaun Watson was supposed to be you know returning to Houston as a Cleveland Brown but now we got Joe Flaco come on don’t you just want to lay flacko on the road let’s give Flaco comeback Player of the Year while we’re

At it uh look guys I uh I I don’t love this spot here I think the Browns have solid lines both sides of the ball offensive and defensive Flaco’s got a little bit of time which is nice um but we know that no CJ strad really is

Hurtful to Houston even though they were able to beat the Titans last week in kind of a very wonky game um and King Henry just did nothing uh was absolutely shut down I think that sometimes when you have a player that’s hurt and team step up in their their place but I think

That was unfortunately last week so I don’t really want to use that against Houston this week but I could see this being 217 Cleveland no problem and I cash the Houston teaser okay we’re opposite move on Packers Panthers actually I don’t like a side on either of those I like

The under I love the under on 36 in this match up next I don’t have a side opinion on the side nothing to do with the two 12 Panthers after finally getting another win over a divisional rival and uh I’m not sort on sold on Jordan love I actually told Brett secret

Santa to get him a Jordan love Jersey as um like a joke right like for the friend group and he looked up they’re $200 who would pay $200 for a Jordan love Jersey I’m sorry I’m not uh drinking the Jordan love Kool-Aid I don’t understand it he

Has he has a he has a very high ceiling he’s very athletic I think he makes some okay decisions at times I can’t figure out if he’s not very good at the other times or if it’s Matt laur’s problem uh and that there could be a mixture of

Both there because we all know him and Aaron Rogers didn’t get along very well so well I do think that he’s going to struggle but I think the Panthers will struggle worse so I would lean to the Packers but I love the under on this

This is my one of my favorite plays for the week is the under on this game we’ll move on Jags bucks uh I I laid one with Tampa Bay in one of my contests in because of okay I I I in on Monday night because we have to

Have it in really early um and initially in early in the week I liked Tampa the line moved in our favor so do you do you think the line moved because Trevor Lawrence is not playing or do you think that I never going to say thaten going I don’t care that he’s in

Concussion protocol like he would absolutely have to be stuck in a hospital because he has never missed a start and there’s been multiple times this season where okay we think he’s goingon to sit no he ends up starting and he does fine so yes I don’t even

Care like whether Trevor Lawrence is in this match up or not it’s really about backing Tampa Bay because I was high on them last week Def and somehow Baker Mayfield but you know what John Murray said this last night on the podcast about Baker and I thought it was really interesting when

You keep being on these one-year deals you’re kind of like fighting for your life as like a mid- tier quarterback in the NFL right so it’s like either do just good enough like let’s say they win the NFC South and a playoff game they’ll probably bring him back because again

Like I was just saying with Justin fields and why the Bears should bring him back because what else are you going to get are you gonna keep trying to draft quarterbacks that don’t pan out are you going to keep trying to trade for the Andy Daltons of the world you

Have to stick with somebody at some point in time and I bash I bash Baker I bash Todd BS but this defense is starting to play a lot better and and Baker’s Baker’s come to play man and no and that’s one of the reasons why I

Liked it I liked the Bucks last week and that ended up cashing easily um but it really has a lot and it’s a lot of the same reasons here is that Tampa Bay yes is on a three-game win streak but why are they on this win streak because they

Finally have utilized the Run game they have the eighth most rushing yards during that three-game win span that run game development that they’ve had had their best rushing output 125 plus rushing yards in all three games doesn’t sound like a lot but they’re averaging four yards per carry compared to three

Their offensive line is healthier and because of that starting a gel running back R Rashad white 20 plus carries in all three of those games consistency in that run game has led to more passing options for Baker Mayfield this is why he himself has become far more efficient

Jacksonville secondary I know this team I hate them that secondary is absolutely garbage they’ve given up 300 plus passing yards in three of the last four games you could really see here a hyper efficient offense from Tampa Bay and in theory Trevor Lawrence if he does play

And in still in concussion protocol I would be shocked but if he does still play on theory he could do well against this Tampa Bay secondary 27th in completion rate 31st in ypa but the Bucks also Blitz at the third highest rate that is terrible news for somebody

Like Trevor Lawrence to even more so if he is not 100% when he is blitzed he’s the third worst quarterback ahead of Bryce young and Kenny pick it so that’s we we’ll go with the box that’s already plugged in okay let’s go with the Box uh Cowboys Dolphins you love to fade the

Cowboys on the RO yeah I was just looking at that game again I really was so I do have the Cowboys in a teaser which is no longer available because this Line’s down to one my problem is I can’t figure out why this line is down

To one now I know everybody moved the bucks or excuse me moved the bills line last week I laid two and a half with the bills and I was like great and then there was nothing to worry about is that what’s going on here uh Tyreek Hill just

Had like his seventh baby of the year is he gonna play this week I have not heard um I I don’t know either but I don’t think it matters I’m handicapping as I mean Jaylen WD still pretty damn good so uh look I I have a concern about it

Being a back-to-back Road game for the Cowboys I have a concern about the blowout maybe not being as bad as it was because I’ll be honest with you when you’ve got four TVs Pam you got to have selections here right so you got Red Zone on one with the audio and then

You’ve got the other games you really care about well why the hell am I gonna have the bills on when they’re blowing them out like I have nothing to sweat I just catch the highlights on Red Zone on the left you know screen so I had a lot

Of other games that I was really concerned about this week um and that was not one of them so full disclosure I did not watch very much of the blowout um and the Cowboys have already clinched a playoff birth they’ve lost four out of their last six H I just I don’t really

Know what to make of this team but like I said at two and a half when it came out early in the week I said all right I’ve got to put this team in a teaser because that’s a good spot for them uh they burned me last week in that

Situation um I like the Dolphins okay or so to what side do you like then I would say that I like the Dolphins if you want me to pick a winner I would say the Dolphins win this game okay so what we saw I think why we’re seeing the line

Move is because yes the thought is Ty Hill’s not in the lineup this is a much easier defense the Dolphins compared to what the Dallas just fade last week and they are still one of the best Dallas still has one of the best defense the problem with that is that the Dallas

Defense has not translated on the road they 25th and takeaways versus first at home and they could struggle again why we saw two a Tang of without Tyreek Hill absolutely crushed the Jets defense is because Mike McDonald is one heck of a coach and he knows exactly what he is doing what he

Did to help eliminate some of that pressure from to tangoa get the ball out fast last week Skeleton Crew on offense no Tyreek Hill and major injuries to that offensive line they had to reshift him around and Tua had 70% of his passes out of his hands in under 2.5 seconds

That is the fastest not only for the week but of the season if he can do that again that’s a big question mark is if he can do do that again replicate that then they could have some success my the only other difference also is that the

Bills gave away the The Playbook on how to attack the Dallas defense and that was through that run game James Cook had won hell of a game problem is Rahe moer did not practice on Thursday so without mostart I no longer want the Dolphins if

He does play I want the Dolphins and I think that’s why we’re seeing the line move really for a running back I don’t know I was try already short-handed on that offense X verse I was trying to see on the X verse what I could find let’s just move off it because I

Really I would need mostard in that lineup because he is every bit as good as Christian McCaffrey so if you eliminate him from this offense yes now you are putting it wholeheartedly into the hands of T of aloa without your without Tyreek Hill and no amount of let

Me get the ball out quick is going to help you when you don’t have that run game to help you balance um well we’re running out Patriots your team just getting ready to say we’re running out of it uh like I said friends don’t let friends lay points with the Denver

Broncos off that horrific three- game Road stretch like I said the Lions last week uh was nice and easy for me not too much stress I appreciate that because these days yeah why because Denver’s finally at home after three straight road games that alone is going to help

Them and in the four games to not be Russ like it’s not even about Russell it’s it’s not even about russellin it is not about Russ face mask it is about the Denver defense solely the Denver defense against bayy zappy they’ve had four home was on the

Patriot lost by the hook it was painful Broncos have had four home games this is like a jet you take them out they’ve had four home games they’ve had four interceptions four four interceptions opposing quarterbacks have been averaging 194 yards nine sacks this is a

Very good defense at home now you have a big defensive game opportunity against zappy the Broncos can absolutely lead a defensive assault on this guy put him on his back he’s had very strong starts but in the second half of games you see it in both his stats and in the eye test

Zappy has some major regression in that second half he’s had turnovers he’s has the inability to move the ball what have we seen from the Patriots offense All Season the inability to move the ball he’s been sacked four times last week he’s young he’s turnover prone now you

Got to go into Denver’s home and do well there New England is scrambling on that offensive line they’ve placed players on IR they’re rearranging that offensive line now you have a pair of rookie guards defending zappy up the middle Denver seventh in Blitz rate they’re going to have take the Broncos because I

Need that eight and a half wins ticket that I didn’t tell anybody I bet because it was so embarrassing after they started one and five I needed to cash so I need to win here I’ll take the Broncos with you I don’t care I’m not laying

Points with this team in real life and that’s what I keep trying to tell people like sometimes with these contests you got to dig deep like you’re not harder money we have your best bet Ravens plus five and a half Chiefs minus 10 to the Raiders bucks minus one to the

Jags that’s literally the only game that we agree on so how about are we just in two of my Freight my Freights two of my favorites and that would be Colts plus one to the Falcons and do I like Bears or Broncos more God you’re talking about

I’m doing this purely for defense so you’re gonna say cols plus one is your best betat uh I’m not going you have to give out a best bet that’s how the show Works hold on let me think yes Colts Plus One will be my best

Bet Colts Plus One will be my best bet that’s plugged in deal with it plus one done I really don’t care I’m telling you that game is Just it there’s a a very smidge of value in the contest I think the current let me pull up the odd

Screen wag talk odd screen let see I don’t even care about the odds and I want see is currently listen I like at least let me feel like there’s some line value here okay like I gotta like feel less dirty about this h no it’s now two and a

Half you like two and a half yeah call oh boy oh boy now I gotta go take a shower okay be right back that’s only four games and then the fifth game the fifth game um I’m going to do it also I’ll have two Best Bets this week Bears

Minus four to the Cardinals okay done I don’t even know what to think about this just whatever you know what plug it in and be done with it that’s it this is just you know I want to read I just want to read you my early week card

So on Monday night I did T AA Atlanta Ravens Cardinals and then the under on Sunday Night Football as my five Monday night plays and then I for my for my own personal super contest I’m going to Atlanta Cardinals Vikings Ravens and I still need a fifth and I get it the

Broncos are playing for a playoff spot I just I might just plug him in I don’t know what to do Pam this is just it’s like I said I I I I should have had like a glass of wine before the show because that phone call I got right before was

Like okay so Pam and I are Ravens Chiefs bucks Colts Bears yes plug it in Gold Bears plug it in that’s it and and I am caveat I have um this is my stipulation that I may or may not change my mind come Sunday because I’m gonna come back

To Vegas tomorrow I’m not there now I’m going to readjust my thinking I do love both of these games and I say I love these games because I’ve actually bet both of these games I never bet early in the week I’ve took both of these games

Early on and that never Happ we gotta we gotta pick them on one of the contests with the Bucks I like that there you go well then those are our five against spread contest small victories we’ll take it because literally we had this was probably our worst week of cohesive

Didn’t exist this made not want to be your friend anymore I’m kidding this whole season you probably aren’t going to be my friend come January you’re coming for Super Bowl and you’re not even call we need take we need to take a break I’ll see you for

Super Bowl don’t talk to me for six weeks when the playoff Stars I’ll see you in the Super Bowl we’ll get some dinner caviar and champagne celebrate girl gang reunite in Vegas that’s our five against the spread contest picks just to reiterate it is Ravens plus 5

And a half to the ners Colts plus one to the Falcons Chiefs – 10 to the Raiders bucks minus one to the Jags and bears minus four to the Cardinals do make sure to follow Kelly on X at Kelly and Vegas follow me on X at pamla M35 and the

Waiter talk both on Twitter and on the YouTube and make and that’s it that’s it for another episode of Stack