As tennis fans, we pay for the drama, and upsets give us the absolute most of that. But traditionally, we tend to forget about the incredible matches that have been played at the US Open in New York. Sure, Roberta Vinci defeating Serena Williams in 2015 was huge, but when was the last time you talked about Arnaud Clement’s 1990 victory over Andre Agassi, or Venus Williams’ 1997 upset of Anke Huber?
In this episode of Replay, we set out to create an ‘objective’ formula to help rank the greatest upsets in US Open History.
This is Replay: a series where we look at the way numbers have shaped the game we love.
Now, the nerdy information promised in the video:
THE FORMULA
Upset Score = [(Losing Player’s Player Score) – (Winning Player’s Player Score)] * Matchup Score
Player Score = (Seeding Score + Ranking Score + Time on Tour Score + Career Record Score + Record on Surface Score + Record at Tournament Score) * Age Coefficient
Matchup Score = Prior Head-to-Head Score + Tournament Round Score + Sets Played Score + Je Ne Sais Quoi
VARIABLE CALCULATIONS
Seeding
Total number in draw (minus) the player’s tournament seed.
Unseeded players = ½ of total tournament draw
Qualifiers/LL = total of tournament draw
Wildcards = either ½ or total, depending on circumstances
Ranking
32 (minus) player’s ranking going into tournament
If no rank during tournament, = 1,000.
Age
Age coefficients calculated by historical averages.
Time on Tour
Number of years a “pro”, multiplied by 5
Career Record
Each previous title = 1 point
Each previous grand slam = 5 points
Record on Surface
Grand slams won on surface = +10
Titles won on surface = +5
Record at Tournament
Previous wins at tournament = +10
Previous Finals = +5
Previous Semifinals = +3
Previous Quarterfinals = +2
Non-cumulative each year
First time competing at tournament = -50
First time making it this far at tournament = -25
Non-cumulative
Prior head-to-head record
Percentage of previous matches player has lost
If no prior matches, = 50
Tournament Round
1st round = 10
2nd round = 20
3rd round = 30
4th round = 40
Quarterfinals = 50
Semifinals = 75
Finals = 100
Sets Played
ATP = 10 x Sets
WTA = 10 x (Sets + 2)
Je Ne Sais Quoi
Non-quantifiable circumstances that add significance to match, +50
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