Alex Blickle and Justin Bates preview the fourth and final PGA Major Championship, the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon Golf Club. Blickle and Bates preview the course and share their favorite 2024 Open Picks, One and Done Picks, and PGA DFS Picks. They also highlight their best Fantasy Golf Picks and PGA Prop Bets.
Timecodes
0:00 – Intro
1:48 – Scottish Open Recap
4:50 – The Open Model
13:50 – Troon Course Fit
19:09 – Best Bets
40:34 – DFS Picks
52:08 – One and Done
58:14 – Let’s Craft Underdog Plays
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what’s going on everybody Welcome to Prov Pro Open championship week British Open week I saw Pat Mayo said the said the same thing for SEO purposes we need to include British Open but man that goes against every Viper of my being it’s the Open Championship week how are you doing Justin man I’m doing great uh crazy week but yeah it’s uh I I love like waking up and having really good golf to watch in the morning I don’t know why it just hits a little bit different to you know wake up and have a cup of coffee and watch those guys grinding it out in the wind and the rain and stuff so I’m looking forward to it this is uh maybe my favorite course that they play over there um you know that that host these these British opens so um yeah it’ll be I’m pretty excited I think it’ll be fun and exciting and we’re going to kind of get to see if some of the live guys can can come over and play well and and it should be good should be a really good golf tournament I don’t know if I’d want to wake up at four in the morning every week to watch golf but doing it once maybe twice a year sure is fun um for this show we are going to do a ton of course fit discussion that’s going to be basically to accomplish two things number one we want to do the best travel we can of breaking down the course so that we pick the best players this week and have the most success in our betting in our DraftKings in our Underdog plays all that good stuff but also it just enhances the viewing experience when you kind of know what to expect when you’re watching so lots of course fit discussion ahead then we’ll get into Best Bets so some DFS discussion one and done and of course we will build not just a three- pick play on Underdog we’re going to build an eight pick play on Underdog today so let’s have some fun with that uh Justin before we get into that I know you wanted to talk about the drop that Robert McIntyre took on Sunday of the Scottish open let’s hear your thoughts yeah so I’m seeing a lot of people it’s kind of like I I was telling you backstage obviously it bothers me that all these people are like oh this guy’s a che this guy’s that and it’s just so far from the truth right so going back and list of the whole story which I didn’t know people still did did this but he wears metal spikes in his front three of his shoe I had no idea that was a thing so yeah um he said it he stepped down and he heard the Clank and and and you could hear it and sure enough there’s a sprinkler head there and and so you get a free relief from that listen I’m not saying it was maybe the one of the best breaks you’ll ever see in a in a meaningful moment right like a very very good break but there’s not one human being that plays professional golf that not would not have done the exact same thing that he did like to to call him out for doing it is is more unfair than anything else because that’s in the rules of golf it’s not like he I mean you know it’s not like he’s moving the sand around you know trying to hit a shot or I mean it’s a clearcut in the rules of golf did he get an unbelievable break yes but the the the nonsense about him cheating just has to stop yeah it was a very similar situation if you remember uh to Xander taking a drop earlier this season when he was kind of in trees and had a camera Tower or a shotlink tower I think it was in his way so he got to move it sideways chip up close to the green same idea the the issue that most fans have whether they realize it or not so with the rule itself not the player I do think something should be done about the rules where uh you know if you’re in that screwed of a situation there should be room for an interpretation like you know what the sprinkler head isn’t actually affecting your shot here the the LIE of the where the ball is is what’s affecting the shot so you don’t get really from the sprinkler head when there’s some other large difficulty to the shot that would be removed that would be a really difficult thing to legislate though so I understand why they haven’t done it but personally that’s what I would like to see well and so the problem is in my opinion you can’t go down that rabbit hole because then you got to take away the bad breaks when you hit really good shots right so if you hit a shot right down the middle it’s an a divot whatnot now now you’re you’re you know he’s being penalized you know in the middle of the Fairway with good shots like at some point we have to draw the lines of like what rule are we gonna to go by so I think that the argument that I would make for it is that that should have been marked Hazard and all the marking Hazard does was just take it away from being able to get relief like that’s literally in in the in the in the rules of golf now you can ground your Club you can move stuff like it’s not like it used to be so just Mark that Hazard and then he doesn’t get relief and and your problem solved that’s a great call I love that yeah maybe we’ll see that this week who knows but Royal trun let’s start with the Open Championship fit model instead uh for those unfamiliar what we do every time we get a major championship where the golf course changes from year to year as we run the model our spit model instead of running it on the course we run it on the event history and when you when you look at the end result of that model it tells us a pretty clear story so for example when we run the US Open fit model we get an enormous weight on driving distance still a very high weight on driving accuracy approach plays only slightly down around the green was still way up and then putting was was slightly up too so basically across the board we’re seeing more predict value than usual at the US Open which tells us US Open courses test players in similar ways even when you go from one course to the next at the Open Championship however we have a strong positive signal on driving distance 48% more predicted than usual and we have a strong uh signal on putting 23% more predictive than usual but driving accuracy is’s 23% down approach play 18% down and around the green is 14% down part of the reason for this is that the course the way that courses have tested players has changed over the last few years in fact going back to in Colin morawa 1 going into that week we were on the morawa outright even though most of the industry really did not like him that week because we saw this huge predictor signal in open championships on iron play itself and at the time he was the clear-cut best iron player in the world everything kind of changed when we got to St Andrews saying Andrews had this enormous driving distance um aspect to it putting was a lot higher at St Andrews as well and then last week we saw or last year we saw some of the same not nearly to the extent that we saw at St Andrews but basically all of this comes down to two things number one I think we do want guys who drive the ball well and make putts or drive the ball far and make putts I should say but also we need to do a little bit of speculation our elves to figure out how Royal trun might test players so Justin when you look at Royal trun what are the things that say out to you about what skill sets are going to matter the most this week I mean it’s just so I think the a lot of the non-predictive right is the weather aspect too of of you’ve got so many different weather aspects of not just wind right and rain but how soft the golf course is going to play compared to sometimes it plays Super firm um obviously we were remember the ones that play firm but they you know if they get a bunch of rain well like it may do this week you might might see a little bit softer um you know like we were kind of talking about we got the tail of 29s here so so you’re looking at somebody that can that can really take advantage of the of the easy holes and and then obviously the harder holes you know you got you got to kind of go with a different skill set it’s almost like you are playing two different types of golf courses so I’m going to lean just kind of like what I do of all the time is is just a guy that drives it really good um is where I’m going to start and then from there I’m going to make sure that I’ve got guys that I know are going to be a little bit of a grinder as well that just have a more of a grinder mentality because I think that’s ultimately what it comes down to in most British opens um if I remember right trun is where stenen won and to hit three-wood all the way around the golf course was hitting that like bull at three-wood pretty much the entire entire golf tournament so obviously you don’t have to get out there and mash Drive everywhere if he won now given he hit his three-wood further than most people do hit a driver but um you know I I just think it’s going to come down to like everything else is is is gonna have to watch the weather and I’m going to go with a guy that’s going to drive it really well and give himself opportunities because you are and then you’re going to have get a lot of chances to hit wedges if you hit good if you drive it well there there are some places that you get wedges around this place and you know they have the really short part three that’s another wedge so you know I’m going to look for guys that are pretty good you know inside 150 yards because you have to take advantage of that stuff here as you mentioned the the last time we saw trun host a major host the Open Championship Stenson ran away from the the pack at 20 under Phil was at 17 and yet the cut was plus4 third place I think was JB Holmes at minus 7 so the winning scores were fantastic but Stinson and Phil were just in a different world that week both literally and figuratively because there was a weather pattern that was just extremely easy for this like one hour long pocket of tea times where so many of those guys ended up at the top of the leaderboard which to your point like the weather is just significantly more impactful here than most places looking at the expected weather report pretty consistent winds on Thursday Friday looks like we could get some wind at times some downwind at times I’ll also say I’ve checked the weather report like five six times over the last three days I think I’ve seen completely different reports every single time I’ve checked it so by no means should you take what I’m telling you right now when it comes to the weather report as fact uh it’s going to change and we should continue to monitor it because the weather is going to be extremely impactful and I think part of that too the the as you mentioned like it’s a tale of two n basically basically the entire front nine plays downwind with the prevailing wind we don’t know that we’ll get the prevailing wind but assuming we do every single hole except for number eight the postage stamp should play downwind on the front and then almost every single hole on the back plays back into the wind the back nine the holes themselves are also more difficult so you get that tail of two nines but you can see then how like certain Pockets could end up getting huge advantages where if you’re on the course for the strongest win when it’s downwind and then you turn back into the wind and all a sudden the wind lays down like that’s the pocket you want to be in right and so it it’s just there’s there’s more Randomness in that way but we also once we’re then closer to the te times we’ll have the chance to pick up on that and predict what’s going to happen in that regard and so it’s not like it’s just completely variance that we can do nothing about but this far out we’re kind of at the mercy of what the weather ends up doing and I think this just leads back into let’s just find the value on the guys that we know are are more talented maybe than their number is um or their price whichever way you want to look at it where where are the guys um you know that that we know can get it done and maybe the value there then becomes on just relying on them having a better skill set than maybe the other players that you know we always end up back to the same 10 to 12 guys that we see as just kind of undervalued because of their overall I what we know what they can do right we know what their how high their ceiling is so um that’s what I’m going to be looking for here is the guys with the highest ceiling that are just completely mispriced before we get into specific plays I want to do one last thing with course fit let’s go through the Open Championship model and kind of talk through what aspects uh could play the same as past open championships what could be different and what about the golf course makes it that way so for example I think the driving distance is going to be really important this week and I think it could be extremely important so again we have it about plus 50% at the US Open we saw it over 100% we’ve seen over 100% before I think this could be another week where we actually get over 100% emphasis on driving distance basically what that means it’s over 100% more predictive than usual on just uh on any you know tour average week and the reason why I think it could be so impactful this week is because of the Fairway bunkers they’re not all the tradition pop bunkers that we see so often in open championships some look more like American Golf Course bunkers but they mostly play the same way where they’re just so deep that if you’re in them it’s not like it is in America where okay I’m in a fairway bunker it’s probably better than thick rough because I can spin it from here no when you’re in the in the Fairway bunkers at Royal trun just like most lyx courses and European courses you’re probably laying up so the ability to take certain bunkers out of play because you can just bomit over them is so so helpful and there are also a number of holes here where there’s just enough of a dog leg that you know a 20% increase in driving distance plays like 30 to 40 because you’re able to cut the corner so I think driving distance is going to be super important here at Royal trun do you have any additional thoughts on uh driving including maybe some driving accuracy thoughts I I think that you you’re pretty much exactly what I was thinking right to be able to hit it over these bunkers and just to be able to be a little bit more aggressive it’s just such a huge deal anywhere we go nowadays but especially places like this so um yeah I I’ll also just kind of go into guys that I know are pretty good in in the three to six seven foot range putting because I think you’ll see whether it be for birdie going downwind or for par going back into the wind I think you’ll you kind of just end up seeing a lot of those those type of putts and I think that kind of showed last week of like you know with the undulation of the greens last week at the Scottish of like hey there was a lot of four to six foot par putts that like oberg hold hold early in the week and didn’t didn’t hold on Sunday so I think you’ll see that same idea here we have these negative weights on driving accuracy approach play and around the green play if any one of those three skill sets is more predictive than at past open championships which one do you think it would be uh I I think it’ll be Iron play will be more predictive I think I think it’s hard with the around the green stuff because once again we talk about this all the time you’ll see a putter used a lot more than chipping so I will you know I I I think that’s just general rule of thumb whether it’s windy or or with just the runoffs in general right so you’ll I think you’ll see putter a lot more so I probably won’t won’t lean into around the green I think it would be Iron play for me interesting see I I’m going to take the opposite stance here actually I’m going to say if one of these was more predictive I think it would be around the green play couple reasons for this number one um I did a show with Pat Mayo on I I think he came out like last last Monday um where I was playing royal trun on a simulator and I gotta tell you I’ve played Royal TR on a simulator a lot since then just because it was so much fun I wanted to keep doing it uh I you know I as I learned more about the golf course and how I expected to play this week I would change the settings play it all different ways one of the things that stood out to me the most as I played it over and over again was I didn’t have a whole lot of short game shots that weren’t bunker shots and part of that is because around these greens there are a lot of Pinehurst likee slopes where you think okay that Ball’s going to stop on the left center of the green that’s good shot and then uh oh it just rolls off and rolls off and almost everything that rolls off of the green flows naturally into a bunker so one thing I didn’t get there is you know I I’m always Hitting off a mat on the simulator so I’m not getting the shots out of like the the long rough where my only shot is to lay up to the front of the green where I’m probably then getting a little pitch shot from there so it’s not like it’s always going to be the case for every player that all of their short game shots are bunker shots but I do think we’re going to see a lot of Bunker shots and part of that is also we you know we’ve Ted talked about it before with around the green there’s a course management type signal when it comes to around the green play where you are making sure that the bunker that you’re going into is one that’s playable from right it’s you have enough green to work with to stop the ball you are less likely to be you know right up against the face of that bunker chipping out sideways because you know which bunkers are deep and penalizing and which ones are a little bit more shallow and doable all of those things combined tell me I think around the green plate will be somewhat important this week but to that effect I would say that’s going to be more and more the case the more the wind blows because there is a chance I think on this golf course where you can just drive it well enough if the conditions are benign that you’re able to hit the ball pretty close and then to your point it would be as much about iron play as driving it where I’m saying if the course is a little bit more difficult as it played the last time we saw it here I think it would be more or distance off the te around the green might even be second to me before putting them so I yeah the the reason I think that around the green just the you I and you kind of hit on this right is that your ball can roll into bunkers and not have a shot right you so even the best the best bunker players in the world may have to hit it out sideways so you’re you’re not you know even they they might be the best bunker player and they so you hit a really good shot that’s just a pitch out shot right you’re not really getting to take advantage of what you do well and I think like to your point if you get all these funneling in let’s say they all funnel in but the the golf course isn’t super firm and fast that means they’re more likely to be right by the edge and less likely to have any shot whatsoever at all so um you know once again it depends on how firm and fast we see the golf course of how much it rolls off because if they go into the bunker with any speed then I agree because you’re probably going to have a chance to hit a good bunker shot but if the ball’s just barely dripping into these bunkers you’re going to be chipping it out sideways anyway all right that’s enough about the potential course fit the interesting thing is as we turn to the betting Market itself I think there are a handful of guys that I’m interested in like almost regardless of what the course fit actually looks like because there are just some guys that I think are dramatically underpriced so to go through my betting card so far going into the week I had Futures on two players I had Russell Henley at 125 to1 Windam Clark at 100 to1 Henley has actually gone up to 150 Windam Clark is down to 80 at best so let’s start there with those two guys what do you think of the numbers I got with the future 125 and 100 and how do you feel about the current numbers 150 for Henley 80 for Windam um will you let me buy part of that Windam CL ticket that’s yeah 100 to one are you kidding me for a guy who’s now I I don’t know if he completely finished top 10 he might have finished like 11th this week or something but basically backtack top 10s it looks like his game is back to Putters on fire and it it’s Windam Clark we’ve seen him dominate Fields like this so I yeah 100 to one is absolutely nuts on him yeah so and I as most people know I don’t have the access to all the books that that you have so I was I was looking at uh I had up DraftKings lines just to to look at as well um the Russell Henley one I don’t really have a opinion on like we know he can win we know he has the ability to play uh I just think Windham cl’s upside is just um he’s one of those uh elite players I think that has the upside that they could get it done for sure how strange is this so right now the the best available using the prop shop at ftn Fantasy for Windham Clark is 66 to1 however at bet 365 the 66 is for an each way with one fifth odds for eight spots if you go to the4th odds for five spots it does boost up to 80 which is why I’m saying that 80 is still available that I have the 100 by the way 1/4 um payout for five spots and yet so 66 on BET Rivers 66 on MGM 66 on BET 3 65 65 on FanDuel 60 on draft Kinks and then Caesars in its own little world 33 to one for Windam Clark I’ve never seen a discrepancy like that and they’re I mean like I think Windham isn’t that far off of 33 but regardless that’s just so weird to see so I I I do think this is where the human element comes into some for like a place like Caesars I think they probably either know they’re going to get hammered with Windam Clark money or or have already got hammered with with this with Windham Clark money there there’s a reason in my opinion they didn’t just be they weren’t just like oh we’re just going to make this guy 33 right there’s been some action there some way to move that line to get it down that low yeah I think you’re right um it’s also possible that we’re pulling a stale line um who knows but funny to see regardless Russell Henley is is a I think a weirder one so my my thought process with Henley is basically that I don’t think there are many guys who are were just better from an all-around perspective the one thing he obviously lacks is distance but man I can’t tell you like how many times we have seen Henley go to a golf course where distance is super predictive he just plays the golf course in his own way and ends up at the top of the leaderboard regard at despite that fact including by the way at the US Open he did it again at the US Open so I’m just going to continue to back him and I don’t know man like I know that he doesn’t have a great history at the Open Championship not really something I care that much about I care far more about course fit itself I think that Hunley that Henley is just undervalued once again and so I still really like him at that 125 number I think I’d like him all the way to like 75 honestly yeah so and I think that if we get firmer faster kind of grinded out conditions I think that’s when I think all your value lies with Henley is is if we get that going where where your ball is getting some roll out because then his ball obviously you know he catches up to a lot of guys that hit it a lot further and then if it plays really hard like he’s one of those guys that’ll just kind of put his nose to the grindstone and get after it yeah the the one guy that I have bet this week is Sam Burns at 180 to one so to start let’s remember what the Open Championship model is telling us distance and putting more predicted than usual everything else a little bit less predicted than usual what are the things that Sam Burns does well hits the ball long way and he makes a ton of putts um the other thing I mentioned is I think that around the green play could be more predictive than usual this week Sam burns like we have given so much credit to Colin morawa for the Improvement that he has made in his short game Sam Burns has made a similar Improvement it hasn’t been as sustained throughout the season which is why it hasn’t gotten the same attention at least from us that we have given morawa but five straight events G gaining around the green he gained over a stroke per round at the memorial over half a stroke per round at the US Open and then three qus of a stroke P at The Travelers with his short game alone so it really has been spectacular the distance is still there obviously and the putter it the putter hasn’t been as consistent this season as it has in the past but he just gained almost two strokes per round at the US Open it’s obviously still capable of getting hot so I really like this Sam Burns number and we have talked before a bunch about how some guys just have the skill of knowing how to win Sam Burns is one of the guys that is always our go-to of somebody who very clearly has that skill so if he finds himself in contention I really like his chances of closing it out unlike guys like Eric Van royan who we have been on in in the past few weeks despite knowing if he gets in contention you’re gonna see the three putts come out I don’t have that same worry with Burns yeah for and like I think you when we when you look at guys that are these higher odds you want a guy that you know can win and I think that that that’s a I think you have to put Kean Bradley in that same conversation I think I like Burns a little bit better this week but you’re you know they’re hanging I mean DraftKings has Keegan at 170 like that’s that’s just too high for a guy like that he’s 225 on bet 365 220 on FanDuel and on bet 365 you can go to the 1/4 for five spots option I think it was either 250 or maybe even 275 with that option so yeah I like this Keegan call as well not quite the course fit but there there are a lot of guys I think Keegan is a perfect one to include in this also like Billy horel someone I looked at Ryan Fox um Benny on available 190 at bet 365 where I don’t want to make that BET right now but what I want to do is I want to keep that player in mind such that once we get tea times so once we have a little bit better sense of what you know T what portions of the tea times might end up with the best draw any if any of those guys fit in there then it becomes an auto bet so whether that’s Benny on whether it’s Keegan Bradley I think that’s the group that I would put Keegan in but certainly that number in and of itself is uh I think undervaluing Keegan in part because we just know like when Keegan’s on the ceiling is high enough to to win in a field like this even if some of the best players are playing well and I’m going to throw another another name into that mix that’s that’s way overpriced and that’s Matthew pavon um he’s way up there and we’ve we’ve seen that he’s a better player this year than what he has been he’s figured out how to win he’s been in I mean I know he didn’t play very good last week which that doesn’t bother me very much here um I just take a guy like that that we know he has a ceiling at a super high number if you if we get the tea times and it looks like he’s going to have a good draw I think he fits that same overpriced model I got an interesting one for you what about Matt Wallace so I he actually I I I looked at him up there he he was listed right by pavon and I was looking at I don’t he’s one of those guys that I struggle with to figure out you know I’ve been pretty vocal about there’s a few guys that I just don’t know you know Denny M McCarthy’s another one those guys I just can’t ever figure out like I just don’t have ever have a a really good take on them I mean obviously Wallace is super talented he’s shown that before um I just think that if if I had to pick Pi somebody in that in in those higher price range I’m going to go with somebody that I know um that I know can win and has proven it lately uh there was another name that stood out down there and that’s uh Monero I like him on DraftKings better than I like him as an outright he’s like 5400 on DraftKings way underpriced for a guy that’s been playing that’s obviously turned it around this year and gotten kind of back to his old form um so the the reason I brought up Wallace is is because historically he has really fit that mold of like distance off the tea and putting and yet lately the distance Advantage is almost completely disappeared I’m I’m assuming that he’s made some kind of change to try and drive the ball more accurately because accuracy off the te has always been his biggest limiting factor but then also back-to-back Miss cuts the rocket mortgage and the Scottish open where his putter was just a complete disaster so that explains the drop in price to high as 350 to1 on FanDuel which I think is an overcorrection but man if if you’re going to bet on him and you’re going to hope that he gets in contention it’s gonna have to be a complete 180 on the Putter and you’re probably going to need him to take a a more aggressive approach off the T so I don’t think I like the number but that it was it was one of those numbers where as soon as I saw it it was like wow that’s that’s a lot higher than I expected to see so I need to look into this but the more I looked into it it’s not like I’m overly excited about it so uh there there are some some really interesting High numbers this week and again I think if if you think they end up in the perfect weather draw it’s always worth taking a chance in that case yeah they’re definitely hanging High numbers on some guys that uh that I think could win um you know so it’s super interesting I was just kind of looking through my odds compared to what what DraftKings has what I have available um my problem is like they cut M all of mine get cut off at 100 to1 so the highest you get is 100 to1 so I don’t get any really big numbers so with mine I was just kind of looking below I think John wrong at 25 to1 it seems pretty high to me like that still stood out I I understand he’s not having a a good year but um he he’s talented enough he’s going to figure it out in my opinion I don’t know if it’ll be this week or not but that that’s just that’s just too high of a number in my opinion um I think the gala’s number is too high um there was a there’s a couple others I I would be do you have anybody in your I don’t want to call them favorites because really obviously you have Sheffer five to one or whatever is your clear-cut favorite and then after that I mean I I think Rory plays good this week like if if if I’m gonna I’m probably gonna throw Sheffer out on DraftKings and start with Rory so I I still don’t as an outright you know nine to1 doesn’t doesn’t do anything for me as what I’ve got for everyone near the top of the board I do want to wait on the projections and the Sim to finish and we don’t have those just yet we we have a very good idea of who projects well and you know we we know each player’s stroke scame profile we know who putts well we know who hits the ball for all that sort of stuff but when it comes to the the detail required to make really good bets at the top of the I want to wait for those actual simulation results so I I will I will agree though with you that I think Rory is a very intriguing option this week I don’t I hardly ever place outrights in that range and I don’t think I would be doing that again this week but man on DraftKings particularly if he slips through the cracks a little bit because people want Scotty so much more than him or they want to go to Xander or oberg I me Rory would look so good he’s driving the ball incredibly well he gained over two strokes per round at the US Open gained well over strok in a half per round at the Genesis Scottish open his around the green play has been spectacular and he putted poorly at the Scottish but not nearly as poorly as it seemed like he was putting because it you know it seemed a lot of the time like oh they were showing Rory well he just missed a six- foot putt I thought a lot of the ones that we saw were quite difficult putts he only lost three per round and prior to that he was spectacular with the putter at the Wells Fargo spectacular with the putter at the Canadian open solid at both the memorial and the US Open up until those obviously those last few puts that cting the US Open but so like there are so many people right now saying Rory’s not a good putter Rory’s putter is gonna let him down you know what it has in some key moments over the last few years but this guy is a good Putter and if off the tea is as important this week as I think it’s going to be particular dist particularly distance then definitely like going back to Rory so I think that’s more of a DFS play for me though yeah I don’t like to put out rights at guys that short anyway like I I would say even the ROM at 245 to1 is like about as low as you know as low as I’m going to go on the board um I have an interesting one and and I’d love to hear your take and that’s Cameron Smith he kind of checks some of these boxes with putting and we know he can compete in this type of golf uh I think I saw he’s around 50 to one depending on where you get it I I just like he do you think that the books undervalue these guys from Liv coming back over and that plays any part in in that being a little bit higher number than you know I expected him to be mid to low 30s to be honest yeah I mean I do think there’s something to to the idea that they that books might underpriced these guys after all we got Bryson at 46 to1 for the US Open right like we that number would never have existed if he had still been on the PGA tour so I I think there could be something to that I don’t view cam Smith as like this fantastic course fit um but man it I do think there’s a very good chance that he’s undervalued and and I think the the big thing for him is just going to be avoiding bunkers off the tea if he either has a game plan to avoid bunkers or if he’s driving it well enough to avoid the bunkers then we should never ever ever be shocked if he’s in contention because outside of driving he’s as good as anybody in the world so yeah I I think he’s probably a little bit undervalued at that that 45 number that I’m seeing at bet Rivers I think he’s also available at 45 on bet 365 with the 1/44 five spots each way so I like both of those um for him but I don’t like them enough to place them yet I that’s another guy number one I want to see what the projections say and number two I want to see if there’s potentially you know a weather angle where taking this week and if he were to fit that weather angle Auto bet yeah uh do you I and I don’t know the answer to this I don’t even I don’t even know any will the will the odds change when they come out with he times if they see will will the books adjust to that or do you think they’ll just kind of keep it I I don’t think books will automatically adjust for it I think what could happen is there could be other people seeing the same thing as us and so you know certain pockets of the of the tea times will get bet harder than others and that would make their numbers obviously adjust but that’s something I think that we can be kind of first Market to Once odds come out let’s take a look at the weather and it also could be you know let’s take a look at the weather before tea times come out and then maybe we’re able to identify ahead of time okay this is the hour that we want because on Thursday that means they they have some Breeze down wind and by the time they turn into the wind you know it’s late afternoon the wind is down obviously making up I don’t know that’s going to be the case yet but that’s the sort of thing that we can we can look out for ahead of time and then maybe really uh be first to Market on those bets because everybody tees off of one right and it’s just continuous two times this isn’t there’s no waves here so to speak right um so it is a little bit different than conventional what we’re used to over here is a morning and afternoon um draw and and what I’m not 100% sure of in the in the US when when you get everybody off of number one you do still have waves in the sense that like the the first player off in the morning on Thursday would not be the last player off on Friday it’d be the first off in the latter half of the field so I don’t know if we get the same sort of thing um yeah I’m 90 I’m 98% sure that’s exactly how it works so yeah so too but it’s worth confirming yeah if you’re the last you’re the last tea time in the in the morning wave so to speak the first day you’re going to be the very last tea time off the second day so and and I I I would have to look at the field size to see exactly you know what tea time that is but when it comes out it’ll be pretty easy to see um who’s where so uh yeah like you said I think there’s just so much to do with weather this week that there’s so many guys that we know can’t lay 50 to one I mean if can’t lays 50 to one and and he gets a even decent draw like I’m G to be intrigued by that because we know he’s capable of being a world class player as well man I have no idea what to think of can’t L absolutely no because he he now has played two very very solid events in a row and it’s not just that you know he was good in those events finished third at the US Open fifth at The Travelers it’s that he gained in every single category in both events over half a stroke per round off the T was spectacular with his irons at the US Open was still pretty good with them at The Travelers was solid around the Green in both and the putter was spectacularly hot in both of so man like I I’ve said before I think one of the most difficult things for our modeling process to do is to be quick enough to adjust the elite players back to their Elite Baseline after they’ve gone through like an extended slump Klay has not been very good this season his results haven’t been quite as bad as I thought but particularly he just hasn’t been himself off the tea this year which really hasn’t allowed him to take advantage of his strong iron play the putter has been extremely inconsistent it’s still great when it’s on but he’s had far more weeks like at the memorial where he got cut in part because he lost over a stroke per round with both the driver and the putter it’s just been a weird year for him so I do think we’re probably going to under project him but I also think that the field might be a little bit too quick to just say oh he’s played two good weeks in a row he’s probably going to play a third good week in a row and maybe we still see more of the Klay that we’ve seen all year which has just been this surprisingly inconsistent lack of a ceiling type player yeah I mean it’s just I just think it’s too high of a number for a guy that’s trending in the right direction that is an elite player I think that’s my my biggest point right we know he’s an elite player we know he can get it done and and it’s just the num 50 to one I just think the way that I always look at is if you play this event in everybody’s current form could he win this event one out of 50 and I I think that that unequivocally that’s yes I do agree with that if you could only make one bet same number cam Smith or Patrick anley man that’s a terrible question because I like both those guys a lot this week uh I I think probably cam Smith and that’s just because I like I I find it easier to root for cam Smith than I do Patrick can’t right like I you know and so and every time I think about cam Smith I just think about the elite shot that he hit at the Players to win that chip like into the grain so hard like you know with with everything on the line and and cam Smith hadn’t really made it to at that point in my opinion so I think that knowing that he’s got stones that he can get the job done I think I would I would probably go with Cam Smith like uh like Sam Burns cam Smith one of those guys that’s a go-to for us when we’re talking about guys that we know have the skill of knowing how to win so I do agree there um let’s jump to the DFS side of things very interesting pricing again this week we have Scotty leading the way at $12,800 then a big drop Bryson second most expensive passing that Rory and Xander pairing that we’ve so often seen But now the three of them are in the mid 11, thousands then another big drop to Rah oberg morawa first question in that top tier How likely do you think you are to get all the way to Scotty and if you don’t go to Scotty are you trying to go to that 11,000 range and hope that one of brys and Roy or xanders under owned or are you just saying okay if I’m not getting to Scotty I’m gonna go more balanc and try to get you know two of Rah o morawa something like that what are your thoughts up top uh I’m gonna I think that the only guy that I’m gonna play up there is going to be Rory um I I do I do expect to have a decent amount of owners ownership of of of Rory I don’t know how much to to be honest but I just think that he’s playing he’s he’s playing really well and I I’m hoping that he kind of falls through the cracks because everybody you know like you said that the pre the media has just been like oh he can’t putt he can’t Putt and then plus the let down at the US Open I wonder if he doesn’t just go a little bit overlooked it’s so interesting because I I’m completely with you on Rory love his Outlook this week and I do think think he’s going to be contrarian which is part of why I love him so much but I also think there’s a chance that we’re going to you know I’ll run ownership tomorrow and say oh guess not guess everyone has the exact same thought and then suddenly I won’t be on Rory as much so very curious to see what ownership says but yeah I well let’s start here what do you think the field will do with Scotty and what is your interpretation of what I mean he’s I think this is going to be four weeks off for him we haven’t seen him since The Travelers do you think there’s any concern that Scotty maybe he hasn’t been practicing as much he’s got a new kid do you think we’ll see any kind of rust with him and do you think that the field will be a little afraid of how long he’s taken off I I think that it like if if I didn’t if I wasn’t so set on where Rory stood and and thinking that as much as the numbers but just believing that this might be the right place to just be all in on on the Rory side of things I would not be scared of Scotty Sheffer at all because he has proven time and time again that he could come out and make three Bogies the first nine holes and then figure it out and the next thing you know he you know he’s got backtack 66s to finish third on Sunday you know to so he’s just a different monster than what we’ve seen and until he proves otherwise uh you know you I just think he’s kind of one of those guys you either have to be all in on or just have to go go another Direction and I think they have the price they haven’t priced high enough that I I I just I think I would rather go down you know a, or 1,400 to Rory okay let me let me ask a different question because I I think that was a fantastic Point by the way um would you rather have an opportunity to play a $12,800 Scotty sheffler at let’s say 20% or an $1,400 Rory at 10% I mean yeah it’s not even close I would take Rory with the lower owned and the lower price tag I just I think that his upside is there and if if you I mean man can you sign me up right now for all of the 10% Rory pretty much anywhere yeah if they were the same ownership are you still going Rory I think it would it would come down to more lineup construction at that point um of of how I value some of the because I I didn’t have anybody in the 6,000 range that I was like oh I just this guy is just severely underpriced I need to have him so I think it would come down to do I have somebody down there that I could pair with Scotty to make it all work because the the thing is you can fit a lot of these lower seven guys into this lineup with Rory that are still huge upside Burns theala all you know the guys that we always talk about you can fit them in lineups with with Rory and and where it’s a little bit harder to do that with a balance lineup and then go all the way to Scotty yeah it’s a it’s a good point I I will say though I think if Scotty is 20% anything that low he’s gonna completely break the gpp scores so I I think um I I’m leaning towards Rory but that’s in part just about my expectation about where ownership will be if Scotty comes in a little bit lower than I expect I will have absolutely no issue making that change and just finding a way to get Scotty in part because there are some really really good options at cheap price tags so my next question for you is going to be what price range stands out to you the most but I can give you my answer right away it’s wingdom at 8,000 and then just a completely loaded $7,000 range we have minwu Lee we have Cam young we have I’m guessing you’re going to like walk nean this week we’ve got sah theala at 7200 Cory Connor 73 it’s going to be really easy to fit Scotty which is in part why I think he’s going to be pretty high owned because the $7,000 range even the 6K range kind of loaded yeah and the one that stood out to me was the upper sixes as well um like after you get after you get below uh after you get below let’s call it 7 ,000 of course it just shut down uh it’s right on Q um once you get below like 6,700 I didn’t really see anybody the rest of the way down that really stood out to me I mean obviously everybody knows I like Keegan at 66 but the 67 uh hogard played good this week for three rounds which is kind of one of the guys that I said would you know that I liked going into the week he kind of fits again this week on Scott obviously played really well you have Henley right there us us Hazen’s going to go way overlooked in a place that he can play well at I think he’s going to be super wellow owned at 6,800 and then obviously everybody knows how we feel about SEI wo and and then you’ve mentioned Ryan Fox right there like we know he’s showed that he can compete this year Davis Thompson at 6,900 there’s just a lot of guys right there that are are going to come down to to ownership because I don’t mind being on either one of the those guys on or Scott yeah I I like the fact that there are so many in this range because I think sunjay at 69 given how well he has played lately is going to be massive chalk and I would guess right now and I would be I’m pretty confident about this the most popular duo will be Scotty sunjay I I think that they they might blow everybody else out of the water when it comes to combined ownership for for a pairing there um but yeah to your point like even you can go lower and find some guys than Ben 64 Tom hogi 64 kyama 63 coming off a nice week Adam hadwin has been playing pretty solid golf at 63 uh so there there are options Ben Griffin 5900 has been playing well your boy Austin eek root 5700 so there are options again it’s just going to make it so much easier to pick Scotty to pick multiple guys in that 11,000 range I think morawa once again will be really popular morawa by the way might be popular as a second man in whether it’s you know Bryson and morawa Rory morawa maybe people will even go to Scotty and morawa given how cheap uh some of these other guys are so we’re going to see a lot of those types of lineups the thing that I don’t think we’ll see a lot of is people loading up on the rest of the $9,000 range I think for example Klay kka um Hatton at 95 havin 97 I think all those guys are going to be pretty low owned and then the upper eights as well cam Smith hi Dei I think those guys are going to have really really good gpp scores because the the pricing is pushing people to studs and then six and sevenk and that 8K 9k range outside of morawa I think will be largely unowned so uh I have a feeling that we will be building in that range even though there are so many plays in the seven and sixks that we like quite a bit so uh what what’s your thoughts about starting a line with like starting with an oberg for instance obvious huge meltdown this week does he recover he’s young everybody knows how talented he is do you ever go down the road where you can literally build a lineup like you were just talking about you know you could build oberg cam Smith Klay all into one and never spend less than you know 6,900 in the lineup because the low sevens are you know theala you could put theala burns with those guys and really build a strong line yeah so this this is a very interesting question because I I think you can answer this in multiple ways if for example like I think that the two guys who stand out to me the most is guys that I expect to have some really high gpp scores are cam Smith and hii Matsuyama that’s in large part because Dei did not play well this past week and he was already low owned last week so I think he will be low owned cam Smith has been low owned pretty much every single major and yet you can start Scotty cam Smith Hideki that still gives you 66 which you know that could be Benny on Russell Henley and Kurt kyama or something like that right so like you can still build really Sol lineup if Scotty’s in there but if you go to the guy you asked about oberg now you’re still left with 75 so now you can go Windam Clark sah thala and somebody else in that $7,000 range so yeah Sam Burns right there you could go burns thalo like Clark you know you know what I’m saying so I just like I think it’ll be interesting to see these gpp scores coming out uh I I almost wish that oberg would have played his tournament the opposite way right that he would have come running at the end rather than but I also think that if if he plays it the opposite way his ownership goes up this week so I think if you believe that he is talented enough to go hey I didn’t get it done but I did what I wanted to do to prepare for this week man give me get a sub 10% Goldberg there like upside and and being able to build around him and and like you said a cam Smith or a Klay to go with Burns and thala like I I just really think you could could do some damage there I’ll tell you he’s gonna have a high gpp score at the top he’s not going to project anywhere near as well as the other guys over $10,000 but John ROM is going to be low owned and he’s gonna have a really solid gpp score as a result so uh even if orberg does end up more popular than you’d like because of how he played this past week you can make that pivot to John ROM for $300 more um with that I think we we’ve done a pretty good job of getting through all of the the DFS landscape of the week let’s talk a little bit of one and done I mean we’re not doing poorly but it it seemed like our our guy EVR could uh could have had a nice week this past week and then just an atrocious Sunday at the end of the day though it didn’t really matter we didn’t move at all in the standings because all that matters are these events with large cses so what are you thinking this week I can tell you I have a pretty I I feel very strongly about what we should do but I want to hear what your thoughts are first I mean so I don’t have that access to the data I I think we had the live guys we have left right are rom and and Neeman we uh we have Bryson and we have Bryson as well uh we don’t have ROM we use ROM at the PGA Championship so we have we have Bryson available oh Bryson yeah yeah at the top we have Let’s see we have Klay Bryson Hideki hom fow Tom Kim Henley um and Fitzpatrick those are the the guys in the top 20 of the world rankings that we still have um I mean we obviously have to have a a win I think to be anywhere near back to competitive H do you have I’m guessing your opinion is going to be based on ownership kind of it’s It’s about Game Theory not necessarily about ownership this week so my thought is that we should use Bryce and D Shambo and the reason I think this is because we did not take him at the US Open and so if you remember we were we were about 500th place before that we fell to about 22,000 um or 2,200 after Bryson won the US Open and we didn’t have him so we have to make up ground on a ton of people Bryson obviously has a ton of win Equity the nice thing about using Bryson if we got that win is he going to be super low owned this week no is he going to be low owned this week amongst the players who are above us yes why because they’re above us in large part because they had Bryson’s US Open Victory so in order to catch all those people and remember he was like 25% on that week the I think he was the most popular play any week this season all the people above us don’t have Bryson so I think the easiest way to catch them is to use Bryson similar by the way to how we had a really nice Advantage early in the season because we had Scotty’s victory that Advantage kind of slipped away because he just kept winning so anybody who used him any week with an elevated event got a Scotty win I think we could go for the exact same thing with Bryson that US Open victory for people becomes a lot less valuable if he wins again yeah I I mean and he’s obviously the most talented right now the way he’s driving it is the best in the world um and with with all the expectations um I and we think distance of putting is going to be predictive here again so like that’s what does yeah I mean if like looking back at this year we’re gonna we’re gonna kind of probably kick ourselves because I would say the name of the eventual winner came up in our conversation probably doubled the amount of time times that we that we actually had the winner um you know Bryson obviously we we were all set on on playing Bryon at the US Open and I think ownership kind of pushed us off last week I was pretty high on McIntyre he won there uh you had a week where the week before we had Davis Thompson you had some you had somebody picked out and and that ended up winning so we’ve had plenty of we’ve talked about the right guys we just haven’t got the right guys to to get it done when we’ve talked about it and I think part of that too by the way is you know we took a lot of chances early in the season so for example like we had a 1% owned Rory at um the AT&T Pebble Beach elevated event and he was six under through like 13 holes and in first place by two strokes and it looked like oh man 1% Rory leading the golf tournament like this is spectacular and then he just completely shits the bed the rest of the way with with a few of those contrarian picks early in the year we were also way ahead of the game on theala he doesn’t have a win but um yeah I mean we’ve we’ve done a lot of good things but but yeah I think that so that that major point being if we had been in 200th place or a 100th place instead of 500th at the US Open we wouldn’t have shied away from Bryson Bryson was our thought for the US Open all season long had we been in slightly better position we would have just stuck to that we felt like we weren’t weren’t in a position where we could be that chalky where you know going getting that Bryson win probably would have taken us from 500th place to 300th or something like that whereas had we been in 200th that takes us to 50th or something like that and then it becomes absolutely worth it so part of it is just we were so close to being in position to be as chalky as we wanted to be in which case we would have had a couple more wins and we would have really been up there so one or two events early in the season season goes our way and we’d be right there instead we got to be a little bit contrarian or we have to just really lean into the game theory and I think in this case Bryson does a great job of that and then we still have some elevated events that we can be controlling with at the end to really try and make that last second push well and I think that also it was a learning it’s been a learning experience for both of us playing the one and done with the elevated events and and realizing how important those those Collective events are compared to picking a winner of say the John Deere classic you know it’s just a different a different monster so uh yeah it’s it we’re I think we had the right track and we’re learning and and uh yeah maybe we can get a Bryson win this week and then have a be back in it all right let’s build a three pick play on Underdog I know where I want to start as we always do we go to the birdies and Bogies uh Josh has once again given me the data and we have we have just under three birdies per round the past uh the last time that we were at trun so I think these three and a half numbers are pretty good like I think they’re well priced but we can find some guys who make a lot of birdies and we can find some guys who make a lot of birdies that also have that 1.1x multiplier pair them with some bogey plays that I really like and we’ll get some fantastic payouts this week so Justin as I go down through the board you see we start at 4.0 with the 0.9x so we can kind of just scroll past all those guys that’s not what we’re looking for I mean I like the UN the I mean you got to look at the under of a couple of these guys shopway maybe if they get a bad if especially if it looks like the weather is going to be somewhat tough so you get a boosted lower there I I don’t mind especially when we get to these eight picks if we’re going to do something and really try to hit a home run like the under four Xander there with 1.1 boost like it has my attention a little bit yeah I think it’s a good call especially I one thing I’ll say is we will probably come up with a an entirely new round of plays once we get the tea times and have a sense of weather we can do some weather stacks and gain the the payouts that way for now though um I I think we just want to go on pure talent and how many birdies guys make that sort of thing so some names that pop out to me right away fala I think at three and a half is his steel Wishy had a higher multiplier on that but cam Smith another guy that stands out to me coming down the board can’t lay I think makes a lot of sense at three and a half but we also have you I was to say you haven’t got to the one guy with a multiplier that so keep going you’re going to get there eventually there’s one that sticks out cam young at at three and a half I think is another one that stands out but man Sam Burns 1.1x and guy with were on last week uh man how far down do I have to go there we go Windam Clark yeah 1.1x more than three and a half birdies are better it’s hilarious that you knew exactly where I was going we did not talk about this beforehand the guy is a birdie machine he fits this golf course so well with the distance and the putting I love this pick that’s absolutely my my starting spot yeah uh 100% I mean that was the first one that stood out to me uh you’re going to give me a guy that makes a lot of birdies that’s playing well with a with a higher multiplier on three and a half yeah um it it it made a lot of sense uh to me okay from there the the one that stood out to me I think is Sam Burns at 1.1x just because it’s 1.1x but you could very easily talk me into theala you could talk me into Camy young instead feno Klay what’s your thought for who we should go to next so I I actually think that from here I’m probably to get the boosted uh payout I probably am not going to play if we’re talking about our third you know just the threepers wager I would I’m probably not going to play another another over I don’t see another one that I like enough to play it if that makes sense um I do think there’s a couple of intriguing unders uh Phil mikkelson two and a half birdies he’s been struggling uh the problem is we all know that he is capable making birdies but that that kind of stood out I think I probably am going to lean to an under from here interesting I I think there are some that I like Fleetwood Fleetwood at four like I’m I’m more than happy to have the same exact number of birdies on a guy like Fleetwood and be able to play the lower on a guy like that I mean you can you you’re telling me that you can give me I can get Rory against Fleetwood and total M birdies made like I I don’t know that one just stands out to me the the um the Fleetwood one does it’s not boosted either direction but you know once again we talk about betting against ourselves basically where you’re taking both sides of a birdie bet so okay so here here are my thoughts here I I think individually speaking just about like the probability of each one of these hitting on their own I agree with what you’re saying but I think one of the reasons why these birdie or better higher and bogey or Worse higher combinations work so well this week is because we have the very distinct like easy front nine difficult back nine very distinct downwind front nine into the wind back nine so because of the wind direction like I think this golf course really lends itself to guys making a lot of birdies but also making their fair share of bogeys in which case I want to go higher on each which I I think we’ve already seen that to be a really winning strategy I don’t love the idea of going higher on birdies on Windom and then lower on somebody else because what if it’s just the case that like four holes are playing so easy downwind and wendham does his job makes all those easy birdies and then the other guy does the exact same thing and EV everywhere else we could be totally right about that guy just not hitting the ball close enough not making enough putts Etc but the condition of the golf course just make it so that those outcomes are inversely correlated where I don’t see that inverse correlation between you know a higher birdies on Windom and a higher Bogies are worse on somebody else yeah I guess I guess my argument there is you you’re basically only saying here’s your nine holes to to make a birdie and so you’re telling me that you have to birdie over half of those nine holes that’s just that’s just it’s just not that easy I mean and then the part the the part five the part five on the the downwind part five is 630 yards so it’s not like you’re you know you’re not playing a 500 Yard part five straight down yeah 100% I I it’s just a it’s just a correlation argument because again on Underdog we are getting so remember just for for those who haven’t seen this before like if we do if I just put in theala and then go to a bogis and I go uh lower on Neiman we’re getting far more than the are we not um what did I do wrong here oh higher on Bogies we’re getting far more than the standard 6X payout so that’s what we’re trying to do we’re we’re basically getting rewarded for inverse correlation that I don’t believe exists and we can’t do that if we go higher on birdies for one guy lower on birdies on another guy so that’s the whole point of I think this I thought you could do it with if betting the opposite side I thought it kind of worked the same way does it not higher and low it does it does but then so if if we were to go higher on birdies on Windom and then lower on birdies for Fleetwood for example we without question are including some inverse correlation in our slip when we go higher on birdies and then higher on Bogies for Neiman for example we’re still getting boosted but now we’re getting boosted in such a way where I don’t believe that there’s actually the inverse correlation that the payout suggests exists if we go higher on birdies and lower on birdies there’s no question that that inverse correlation exists gotcha I understand what you’re saying no um and that makes complete sense uh I it’s just more of I don’t understand how you can have one guy like Fleetwood that obviously is not going to make as many birdies as a Rory having the exact same number that’s fair that’s fair um let’s go let’s do this let’s go to my favorite Bogey’s play and then we can figure out the the third pick and actually um this one is I think it shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody who followed the master show because we did the exact same thing there and it was an easy win we’re just picking on John Daly we’re picking on a guy who already got I’ve already got it clicked on my phone like literally it already clicked it yeah the guy’s shooting in the 80s every time in the champions tour like he’s finishing near dead last every event at the on the champions tour and you think he can go to a major championship golf course and not make Bogies the only question that I have is do we want six and a half Bogies or worse or do we want instead to just say more than 80 and a half Strokes with the idea being he can make a 10 on a hole and it’s just like okay the 80 and a half is done right there whereas in the Bogies are worse you’d still need to play six other bad holes so do you have a strong preference between the two I mean my first my first lean was was the Bogies are worse um you know what The Strokes are no longer available so I think that decision was just made for us but I didn’t even think about about the I think the problem with the the 80 and a half is if the downwind holes do play extremely easy and he makes a couple of birdies it makes it a lot hard harder to get to that 80 and a half I do agree with that okay so if those are the first two in let’s find that third pick and for for those unfamiliar the reason why we want to find a third pick is because three pick plays are kind of The Sweet Spot on an underdog six pick plays are fantastic eight pick plays not quite as good but they’re a lot of fun so we’re going to build an eight pick after this but the the three pick is just it’s it’s where you want to be the the win probability that you need the win percentage that you need to be profitable is a lot lower if you’re doing a three- pick play than if you’re doing a bunch of two-p pick plays so that’s why we want that third one and we can also uh boost the payout as well by going with a third so either birdies or a higher on Bogies do you have any others that you really like because I we could go a number of ways here there are both birdie picks that I like and there are bogey picks that I like so they just changed DA’s number it’s back up and it’s 79 and a half now whoa so I don’t know if you need to refresh it or or what but on my app it has daily at 79 and a half I don’t know if that makes a difference I just want to let you know um yeah that does make a difference so let let’s think about it this way if Daly makes seven bogeys what are the chances that he breaks 79 and a half it’s a par 71 I believe so we need over so we would just need we just need two more doubles than Bird’s made in that case if he goes over like to me the chances that he shoots higher than 79 and a half and makes fewer than six and a half bogeys is a lot higher than if he makes seven or more bogeys but shoots below 80 does that make sense yeah yeah uh and the payout barely changes it goes from 3.56 to 3.53 so we’re still getting that boosted payout from the inverse correlation so I like the higher than 79 and a half yeah I I would agree I think um I think you’re flipping a coin right I don’t I don’t see one as that much stronger than the other I just do see that I I it was just funny that we were talking talking about it and it went down to to 79 and a half while we were talking about another one that we’ve had a lot of success on so far this major season is betting against Phil Mickelson he has continued to play terribly on the Liv tour what is your opinion of higher four and a half b are worse for Phil see I just like hire 73 I mean like I higher than 73 just seems like a it’s the other guy like we’re we’re on a lot of the really the same page with a lot of stuff right now because that’s literally what I had just clicked is Molson over 73 are you more worried about Phil making a bunch of birdies than you are daily though because I think that’s my hesitation I I actually I’m not I I don’t like I I think that Phil yeah he might make four birdies but he might make a 10 and and so I think because he’s going to try to hit this he’s going to try to hit the more special shot and and you know to be we’re talking about six and a half shots lower than Dy you know it only takes one big number whereas Dy can make a 10 on a part five and still shoot 79 I if if mikkelson makes a really big number somewhere he’s not breaking 73 yeah that’s a good point let’s let’s see if the if the payouts change at all so 6.95 X or 7.01 so no real difference there um if we wanted to go to birdies so the the one that I had been talking about with Sam Burns at 1.1x let’s see how much better or worse that one is where are you Sam shout out to uh to Underdog they have so many picks available that it’s hard to find them so I’m just gonna search his name there’s the 1.1x 7.64 X for this three pick play so I’ll let you decide this last leg do we want Phil higher than 73 Strokes Phil higher than four and a half Bogies or Sam Burns higher than three and a half birdies are better also 1.1x would which would take the payout all the way up to 7.64 X I mean if I had to make a decision between the three I think I would go over 73 Phil that being said like that extra boost in money for Sam Burns definitely does something for me there because basically because the course fit if it comes into because he hits it far and putts so good that if this all comes out to be fact of the way the golf play or the way the golf course plays then then I really like that as well yeah Burns also just one of the better scorers on tour um so let me get this this exact number up 45th in bogy avoiding 20th in birdie or better percentage so um why don’t we make why don’t we do this let’s make burns the official six P or the official three pick play so Sam Burns Windam Clark higher than three and a half birdies each 1.1x John Daly higher than 79 and half strokes and then as we go to make this eight pick play We’re immediately going to start Phil mikkelson higher than 73 and a half Strokes as the next one in I would also say do we want to just continue to to kind of take this like bet against the old guys route and and go higher 4.0 Bogies or Worse on tiger I I love it 100% think that that’s a great play um it weird it’s so it’s so hurt it just I feel like it just hurts my heart to be like oh yeah’s gonna make more than four bogeys but um yeah I think that you have to just think that these guys are gonna struggle okay so we have the old guys struggling now let’s get some more birdie picks to turn this into an aick play with a very very fun payout I can’t wait for you guys to see just how high this can go um first place I’m going to start is with sah fala his three and a half number stood out to me right away so let’s go higher three and a half birdies on sah theala any others really stand out to you I was just kind of scoll scrolling through these now um real quick by the way um this six pick play is worth 35x I’m probably going to play this one as well 3.6x for five of six but let’s turn this into an eight pick um I don’t really have another another birdie bet I think the kka over bogey bet kind of stood out to me um but as far as birdie bets go everybody’s just kind of all the guys at that four number if you know there’s some of them if they were three and a half I think I would I would lean into I mean we haven’t even talked about the the Jordan spe over two and half Bogies um you know that’s been a staple into our now it is it is 0.9 instead of the other way but do you like the O do you like the over four Bogies better than than the over 72 and a half for Tiger uh yeah because one thing we’ve seen from Tiger this open or this major championship season he’s making a lot of boes but he’s doing a pretty good job of avoiding doubles and worse so you know he’s he’s just taken his medicine a lot he’s made a bunch of Bogies like I think the in round one of the US Open we had higher than four and a half Bogies I think he ended up making six but he only made six Bogies and he didn’t even sniff a double bogey so um I I think in that regard I I like the Bogey’s number more for him and it’s also one of those things where like because it’s 4.0 vers 72 and a half I don’t mind the idea of maybe he only makes four bogeys but that doesn’t lose the entire thing for us it just docks us from an eight pick to a seven pick in which case we’re still getting a really high payout if everybody else hits the other guy that You’ talked about there was cam young uh the over three and a half on cam young and just get your opinion on that that’s the only other guy that really really stuck out the other and then back to a boosted I saw one other play that I that that made sense to me so the the fact that you went to cam young I like I’m I’m totally in on that and I had so there were three guys for the last two spots that are really competing um for for my liking Camy young is one of them Min Le is one of them we hit Min Le in round one last week another guy just distance and putting like that combination very very few have it the way that minw Lee has it and then cam Smith just because he’s a he’s a magician makes a ton of putts so um I think cam young and Min Le would be my choice but you could definitely talk me into Cam Smith and it sounds like you had some other boosted guy in mind so do you have any idea the other boosted guy was a Bogey’s bet though it was it was ROM over two and a half Bogies if he continues to struggle like he has struggled and gets frustrated like he did last week a boosted over two and a half ROM could really make this payout nice it definitely could um do you have any preference on those on those birdie guys uh I’m good with any of those three I like I like where your head is all three of them um I I feel like that the that Underdog values the live guys more than than say than say Draft Kings I agree I agree 100 percent um what what do you think of you meant you know you were really high on Klay in the outray market you was high on him for three and a half birdies um I just uh I think that we’ll know early on of how he’s going to play I don’t I don’t I don’t I think he’s hard to figure out round to around so it doesn’t really like I like some of the the guys like a cam young or or a mini better than I like uh than like than I like him interesting he’s 69th in bogy avoid and 23rd in birdie or better percentage so it’s one of the reasons why I bring him up um let’s check let’s check those numbers on cam young Cam Smith we won’t be able to check it for cam Smith but let’s check it for Camy young and minu Lee and then maybe that will give us a final answer so um I know that Camy young is a great scorer 142nd in Boogie avoidance 21st in birdie or better rate absolutely hilarious and then nin Ru Le um I think he’s another guy who really favors making birdies instead of avoiding bogis but let’s double check that 112th in bogy avoiding 63rd in birdie or better percentage so uh confirmed but um I’ll give you the final say here let’s let’s pick two of those three Camy young men Le Patrick Klay what’s your lean uh well it sounded like I didn’t realize that he was that high Klay is 23rd and and burries are better that that that makes that an easy choice for me there and then you can flip a coin for the other two I’m good with either one I know woo and Klay okay that that sounds good to me I think myen would be minwoo as well just because of the Talent level and knowing that he can make a ton of birdies and how far he hits it I’m a little bit afraid of uh of Camy Young’s putter in this regard and we’re we’re kind of leaning in with all the other picks with Windam Clark with Sam Burns we’re leaning into this idea of distance off the te and the ability to make a lot of putts minu Lee and Klay both fit that quite well Camy young obviously has the distance aspect of that but doesn’t make anywhere near as many putts same idea but revers for cam Smith cam Smith doesn’t have the distance even though he makes putts so I think this play makes a ton of sense eight pick play 94.6 X let me zoom out for you guys uh so you can see the full ticket here John Daly higher 79 and a half Strokes Sam Burns higher three and a half birdies Windom Clark higher three and a half birdies Michelson higher 73 Strokes tiger higher 4.0 Bogies fala miny Patrick Klay higher three and a half birdies 95x that would be one heck of a way to start off the Open Championship should be a fun week Justin yeah and I I think that we I’ve noticed myself having maybe a little bit more success with the you know second and third round uh with Underdog than I have the first round because you kind of get just get a better feel of how it’s going to play I think that’s going to be a thing that everybody has to pay attention to we’ve talked about the whole time is how predictive uh or you know how unpredictable the the weather is yeah I mean it’s it’s a it’s a double-edged sword right because on the one hand it becomes a lot easier for us to predict what’s going to happen it also becomes easier for Underdog and priz fix to set lines though so do have to keep that in mind but uh so that’s those are our plays already and as I said earlier we will come up with another wave of plays once we actually get tea times and have a good sense of where uh where the weather will be most favorable least favorable Etc with that let’s have ourselves a great Open championship thank you everybody for tuning in and we will catch you next time
