British Open | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data – DFS Golf & DraftKings

The TOUR heads to Royal Troon Golf Club in Scotland for the British Open. Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!

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SHOW INDEX
0:00 Intro
2:03 Course Preview
12:31 10K Range
21:32 9K Range
30:16 8K Range
36:03 7K Range
41:57 6K Range
45:47 5K Range
48:35 Custom Model
52:48 Outro

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what’s up guys Rick here with your preview for this week’s Open Championship I’m going to take you through the analytics of the golf course Royal trun the field and everything else in between to see if we can make some logical reasonable decisions and get you all prepared for the final major championship of the year now I have two big announcements out of the gate number one the Wednesday Live Chat is going to be a little bit earlier for this week it will be at 1100 a.m. eastern time on Wednesday I have a tele ision commitment for CBS sports that I can’t move because it’s live television so I am moving the live chat up a little bit so if you want to go over that room is available now set your notifications drop your questions your concerns your comments all that fun stuff you can go take care of that right now also you might want to take care of entering the listeners league right now because Splash uh who has been great at guaranteeing the prize pool for all of our listener leagues every single week and growing them and making them bigger has added and guaranteed $25,000 to the purse for this week on top of that if you are able to put together the optimal lineup so the way this works is it’s a tiers contest you pick one golfer from each of six tiers if you pick the correct golfer from each of six the the optimal way they give you a $100,000 extra they call it the splash pot it’s not going to be easy you’re going to have to uh be perfect but if you do not only are you going to win the contest you’re also going to get an extra $100,000 it’s a $20 entry you can enter a bunch of times um it’s already filling up uh earlier than I expected so go get in this right now links in the description this is all legal and regulated in 40 some odd States and they’re adding new places all the time so go check and see if you can get in on this um they’ve been very very good on on these contests for us okay let’s jump into Royal trune we’ll start here on my website rickun good.com it’s a giant database for golf betting and fantasy golf and there’s tools and visualizations you’ll see that throughout this this video but this is the course key stats page and this is fun because we have 2016 Open championship history where we have the data from that event we also have the other Open Championship Roa courses that are going to play somewhat similarly so we’re able to take the dat driven expectations the results from the 2016 open and put together some nice key stats here so you can see this is a rather difficult Golf Course especially you know the the second third of the holes and the third third of the holes basically after you get through the first six or seven holes you run into a little bit of a gauntlet and this is the regression model for this week so this looks at the stats that are available and uh looks at uh the correlation to success based on those stats and then Compares those to all the other courses and right off the bat as you always see at major championships you got to be great from T to Green this is a heavy uh off the te golf course it is a heavy around the Green Golf Course you You’ just got to be really really stout here um to put the the numbers behind that it it ranks third around the green which means there’s only two other courses on the PGA tour and major championship schedule in which Strokes gain around the green is more correlated to success than Royal TR it ranks inside the top eight in both driving accuracy and driving distance so driving so off the t is is obviously ranked very highly as well and then T to Green play because of all of that is important that actually uh the the really shocking thing here is that Strokes gain putting really good Putters coming in there’s little to no correlation to success in the small sample size that we have that’s the correlation I want to point out a couple of things here um you know Open Championship venues are always so interesting so I I want to preface this by saying that yes there there will likely be a wind a weather a weather wave right we’ll keep an eye on that for Wednesday Mother Nature often plays a lot of Defense at open championships and if there is no wind if there is no weather a lot of these courses can be can be taken apart yes it is a link style golf course with with deep bunkering and uh creativity and lots of styles of golf to play but I think there are two things that stand out to me about Royal trun that are more unique than other Open Championship venues and I’m going to pull up the satellite imagery here and the the course mapping which I know you guys like um to kind of talk through some of this firstly these are small greens very small greens by my count I think they’re the smallest in the Roa and a lot of them are shaped like this where there is a little tongue in the front and as you go farther back as you get deeper into the greens they get significantly wider so here on hole number two that little tongue is only 10 yards wide but the widest part as you get towards the back is 24 yards wide so basically 2 and a2x the width as you go farther back which to me creates a couple of situations front pin locations are almost always going to be uh difficult to access so you’re playing a lot to the middle you’re playing a lot to the back of these greens they are also effectively smaller because you know these these green side bunkers are you know little little magnets right they they try to gobble up a lot of golf balls and and cut into some of these greens and you’ll see here’s number three another situation where the green shape is almost identical and I think distance control is going to matter a lot so the in my opinion again this is similar shape here on number four missing left and right off your line will be in my opinion more penal than missing sorry missing left and right will be less penal than missing short and long meaning that you want to have good distance control even if you’re a little bit left you’re a little bit right um because there is more trouble in my opinion that you can get into by being off on those short and long shots and then of course I haven’t even shown you number eight which is literally nicknamed the postage stamp this green I I calculated it to be about 24ish 100 square F feet which is Tiny um you know the this is obviously the very small one but the rest of the greens are are not much are not much uh bigger than this now I also think that because distance control is going to matter coming out of the fairways are going to matter but that goes on to point number two where I find this to be one of the more amazing and unique off the te courses that we get in the road or that we see in general when I think of options at a at an Open championship course I think of options around the green however I think Royal trun gives you a lot of options off the tea and what you’re going to see are levels Jerry levels different levels or brackets I think this course brackets you in off the te and what I mean by that is you know you can play two to you know this yellow line here is 250 yards to a wide part of the green but if you push it up a little bit farther than that you start running into trouble which are these pot bunkers in the Fairway which are going to be incredibly penal but then even if you try to go up one level after that there’s just another set of bunkers that are going to get in your way here’s an example on number two um number two is short hole it’s you know 400 yards you can play it to 250 and remove a lot of the trouble but anywhere between 250 and 300 if you try to push up to the next level you’ve got more trouble there are a lot of great examples of this number three you know you have to there’s this burm or river whatever they call it over there I think they call them Burns that run run through the Fairway well are you going to lay back to 270 or are you going to try to push it up to 290 there’s also one other really good example on I mean they’re all good examples here here’s here’s four again you can try to play it to 275 and split the trouble you can play it to 300 and try to split the trouble or you can try to carry everything but when you try to carry everything you’re now going to effectively go to a smaller dog-legged portion of these Fairways number seven I think is actually the best example of this is it seven yeah look at all my marks on seven here seven gives you I think at least four viable options off the te you can lay it way back so it’s a 400 yard hole you could just remove the trouble and play it short to about 240 and leave yourself 160 in if you decide to go up one level you are now playing it to about 250 but you can’t go more than 270 one more level up you’re playing it to 270 but you can’t go to 300 one more level up you go to 300 but now there’s still a fairway bunker at 320 and the dog leg that you’re trying to cut now is making the Fairway effectively smaller so you’re never out of trouble there’s not you know we see a lot of major championship venues in which if you can carry it 310 320 and a lot of this obviously being wind dependent especially on the coast here at an Open Championship you can remove all of the trouble I don’t find that to be the case here I do not think you’re going to be able to blindly bomb your way around Royal trune and remove all of the trouble I think you’re going to be need to be much more strategic than that you’re going to need to commit to playing a a specific number and then hitting that number and keeping it on the correct level or within the correct bracket or whatever else you want to call it I just don’t think you’re I don’t think you’re ever going to be like okay Redline driver Redline driver Redline driver Redline driver it’s going to be like no hit this driver you know get it to land at like 35 yards if it rolls out a little bit I’m still okay you know a lot of that because the the design is is it’s incredible I I think that they really off the te strategy is so so good this week and you see it you know even even if you have holes like 13 here where there are there are no Fairway bunkers right there’s no bunkers out here to bother you 275 is 41 yard wide in that Landing Zone 300’s 35 yards wide past that it’s down to 30 so so you are by taking on more reward you are taking on more risk which is how golf courses should be and this is how it is off the team you see I mean look at these pop unkers every almost every 25 yards that that is so cool it is so cool you’re not you’re going to have to be so good off the te here’s another one where a burn just runs runs through at 300 like what are you going to do I don’t think you can blindly bash drivers so I think you’re going to be really um you need to either I think you’re gonna have to play out of Fairway a lot Brian Harmon did this beautifully uh at at Royal Liverpool where he just never got into trouble off the te and played out of the Fairway a ton I would like a little bit more distance than that because there are some places where because because being a short hitter doesn’t like he was is playing like in front of all the trouble I actually don’t think you’re going to be able to play in front of all the trouble but the longer you go the more trouble that you get into so I would like you to be a little bit longer than Brian Harmon but still play out of the Fairway either way it is going to be a very very difficult driving test so that’s that’s the blueprint um and then of course because the greens are small because you’re coming in from from other areas around the green play it it’s going to be awesome it’s it’s really going to be awesome let’s let’s take a look at this at this field and start start naming some names and start figuring out who could have success here here it is the cheat sheet at rickun good.com there are six golfers over $10,000 and I’ll just let you know right off the bat this does go down into the 5K range for this week so a lot of options when building and we’re just going to start at the top here let’s talk about Scotty sheffler so this is um I believe a a okay spot for him right he has been phenomenal this year from Teter green he’s been nothing short of spectacular his Open championship history is not particularly great though it is mostly derailed by his putter so in fact you go back to Royal Liverpool he gained 10 and a half Strokes from tto Green you go back to 2022 he gained eight Strokes from TAA green lost uh pretty significantly with the flat stick in both of those places well he’s a much better putter now and I do not think that there’s going to be a Pinehurst situation because the way that the greens work at Pinehurst very fast tons of undulation is just not going to be the case it’s not even going to be possible at trun they’re going to be a lot slower I think he’s going to have an easier time reading them and he’s still probably going to be one of the best teer green players in the world so I’m just I’m just downgrading him from a 100 out of 10 uh absolute lock slam whatever you want to call it to like a 9.3 out of 10 right relative to Scotty in a lot of weeks I think it is it is uh less optimistic but I still believe he is one of the best options that you have on the Slate the other thing is that the Open Championship more so than a lot of other events can be very random can be weird can be wonky you can get on the wrong side of a weather draw you can get unlucky as opposed to like a mirfield village or something of that nature so that’s why unfortunately it it it you have to downgrade Scotty Just a Touch Just a Touch uh but you still have to be pretty optimistic about what he is up to Bryson D shano’s next $1,500 and I will tell you that if you would have asked me this before the year started I don’t think that I would have been very bullish on Bryson’s chances at Royal trun however I probably would have said that about um the Masters I probably would have said it a little bit about the US Open as well in fact I in fact I probably did say it at the US Open and he has found a variety of different ways to play and contend and I find the even the t-shots here as we already talked about to be very very strategic and I trust Bryson to be able to figure out the t- shots now I do worry a bit about the rest of his game because his Open Championship record is not very good a T8 in 2022 is by far the best result he’s had nothing inside the top 30 outside of that so again we’re off to a start here where I’m a little bit worried about each of the first two relatively right I still think that Scotty shuffler and Bryson D Shambo are are fantastic um but there are some level of concerns I don’t think they’re just Primo Primo spots for them and call me you know uh um Wy coyote as I as I continue to just step on the rake and it smacks me in the face but there there really is no evidence that Rory mroy is not going to be in contention and he’s not going to have a great week and he is discounted $1,00 off of Scotty sheffler just to be clear let’s Zoom this out a little bit last 36 rounds let’s just do let’s get rid of the senior tour guys we’ll get rid of the K corn fairy tour guys we’ll get rid of the Asian tour rounds last 36 rounds for everybody in this field Scotty Sheffer is the best player in the world 3.09 Strokes gained per round Rory mcy and Xander shafley are a solid second 2.3 Strokes each so Rory mroy and we can we can do this a different way we can say since since the start of of the calendar year something I I like to do as well so since January 1 everybody in this field uh Rory mroy there there’s no player in the world who has played as many rounds as Rory as well as Rory okay Rory’s at a two 0 in 64 rounds Scotty’s at 59 rounds 2.7 you’ve got ERD ‘s John Catlin some Asian tour guys but you’re talking about in all likelihood Roy maroy being the second best player in the world if not the third best player in the world at the absolute worst the fourth best player in the world with an unbelievably High floor with a great Open Championship record uh I I realize the the winning drought that we are in I realize he has not won a major since this 2014 Open Championship however he has 1 two three four five top six finishes since then he did not putt well last week at the Scottish open lost a stroke and a half which is his his biggest loss dating back to the cognizant in what February of this year the amount of Strokes that he left out there and I know that you can say this for anybody but the amount of Strokes that he left out at the Renaissance Club was was pretty telling especially over the course of the weekend his C+ game was good enough to finish T4 there so call me a fool call me whatever but I don’t see a scenario in which Rory Mary doesn’t contend here um Xander Schley I don’t think we need to spend too much time on Xander he is he’s incredible everything I just said about Rory maroy about having a high floor having uh probably being the second best player in the world that that all relates to to Xander as well um there there’s no reason to be concerned about any of his history is it’s it’s good not great he had a a runner-up finish in 2018 and then a bunch of like okay finishes outside of that I’m very interested to see what the industry does here will will everyone be stocking up on Scotty because he’s the best player in the world will everyone um overplay Bryson because they only really get to play him four times a year will there be a lot of love for Rory and what does that do to Xander right that’s what I’m most interested in if we get in a world where Xander is the Forgotten guy in the 10K range you’re going to see me allocate a lot more resources in that direction we’ll see we’ll know that early in the week and we’ll be able to dive deep into it on that Wednesday live chat John ROM and lud VI oberg are next and this is really um for me one of the most valuable things and one of my favorite things about my website rickun good.com is I not only have deals with the PGA tour for all their Strokes gain data and the corn fairy tour and the senior tour and the European tour but also with Liv so having the metrics here and seeing that John ROM gained three Strokes off the tea in Spain last week and another two-on approach this is one of the best stat profiles that John Rah has put together since LIV Miami now I do think that there is more to the John ROM story with what’s going on between the ears when he gets to major championships as opposed to just what’s going on on the golf course but when he has played he’s played very well right he withdrew from Houston live golf Houston with the with the foot or toe injury did not play the US Open maybe that was the the major championship reset that he needed and I’ll be interested to see this is another guy where you know if we can get him at some discount I am still quite bullish on John ROM’s chances uh I just think that he is too good to not be to to to just basically Whi the majors this year t11 third 34th and runner up in his last four open championships it’s just so good it it’s just so so good and then ludvig’s the last guy and I’d be lying to you if I said I wasn’t simultaneously impressed and concerned about what I saw from him you know he has really struggled in final rounds uh dating back to the Masters now he has still posted a ton of really great finishes a lot of really great metrics the 4.7 Strokes that he lost on Sunday at the Scottish open is the worst or excuse me second worst round in oberg’s career it’s a short career but he’s got a lot of rounds and it’s the second worst you don’t like to see that when you have a two- shot lead that’s that’s pretty concerning so I I am probably not going to have a ton of ludvic um maybe that comes back to bite me maybe it doesn’t this is his first Open Championship I know he’s he’s very very competent in link style golf but there’s just too many other good options here Rory and Xander and Scotty and then maybe pivoting to to John ROM or seeing what people do with Bryson there’s just so many good options and even as you go down into the 99k range just is it’s it’s too it’s too good it’s frankly too good here’s the 9k range it starts with Colin morawa it has Victor hin Terell Hatton Tommy Fleetwood Patrick Klay and Brooks Kea I’m all in on Colin I was all in on Colin last week I have been uh showing this stat profile week in and week out and saying how is he not winning when is the win coming because it’s coming soon and maybe multiple of them if you go to the trends tool you’ll see that over the last 36 rounds he is trending as basically the fourth best player in the world um so what that means is it looks at what he’s done in the last 36 it Compares it to his last uh to his 100 round Baseline and it shows you that he’s actually playing three quarters of a stroke over his own 100 round Baseline guess what his 100 round Baseline is very very good so this bumps him up to like a 2.24 player which is an incredible rate it’s anytime you’re gaining over Two Strokes per round you could be in the conversation for the best player in the world if you do that for an extended period of time and that’s where moraa is at now we have Scotty who’s breaking the system and playing to a three which is just dirty but it’s a very very small list of players who can who can get themselves into into this category here um outside of he has such a strange Open Championship record the win in 2021 and then two consecutive missed Cuts played well at the Scottish and and coming in just putting beautifully I think that looks dialed I think he looks confident I know that that is kind of outside the the the scope of of the data but I like the way outside of a couple re I mean he should have won the Scottish open he he played the the second nine which was so getable at the Renaissance Club he played it horribly he he did take a couple of swings where he dropped the club and and looked like he got spooked a little bit but all things considered I I thought he played very confidently and and very well last week um he is often a very accurate driver of the golf ball which we know is going to be critical he he pounds uh greens and has great distance control which I think is going to be huge this week and he has a very underrated around the green game so I don’t I don’t know if you know he’s the type of guy where he’s not just where he can gain Strokes off the te by by playing out of the Fairway and he’s long enough right he’s not just super long but sprays it this is the type of guy that you would think would be able to to kind of uh play well at trun considering what we looked at with with the um severe strategy that you need to take off off the tea and I’m kind of playing the hits here right you know I’m still I got a lot of questions in the live chat last week about my feelings on Victor havland and and I I voiced concern and I’m I’m still very much there you know I wanted to see and I still want to see uh a good a good stat profile week from Victor we haven’t seen it since the PGA Championship he was working towards it and now we’re starting to see that around the green game just it’s decimating it um I I do believe and again this is not I have a a nice relationship with Victor this is this is my opinion it’s nothing I’ve I’ve spoken to him about but I do think the around the green struggles are putting more pressure on other on other things you know he missed a couple of short putts last week something that you don’t usually see him do he was um he hit a couple of shots last week when you watch a lot of rounds from Victor he is a very confident golfer and last week he was hitting a lot of shots where he was immediately talking to the golf ball as soon as it’s off the club face it’s it’s get down get up do this do that and and that to me says he is not making the same solid contact that he is used to that’s what that says to me and you can kind of see it in the numbers here he loses a stroke on Approach at The Travelers another one on Approach at at the Scottish open and when you are missing in the wrong spots at these Roa courses you’re you’re going to be asked to put a lot of pressure on your around the green game which is obviously something that he struggled with he’s lost there like 11 out his of his last 12 starts so um I’m would be thrilled if Victor won this golf tournament I’d be happier if he won than basically anybody else um but for for our purposes here I need to see a stat profile trending in the right direction because you’re paying $9,700 and the two guys below tell me Fleetwood and Terell Hatten are going to be fairly popular let’s start with Fleetwood because I think most people just just run Tommy out there um in like back to like okay it’s the Scottish swing back-to-back starts and he got off to a really good start and and struggled on Sunday if we’re not going to beat up ludvic for struggling on Sunday if we’re not going to beat up some of these guys for having one bad round you can’t beat up Tommy Fleetwood so I’m interested to see how many people go back to him because the truth of the matter is that Terell Hatton is probably outplaying Tommy Fleetwood at the moment um and that goes for uh three very good or three good major championship performances this year T9 the Masters uh he makes the cut finishes 63rd at the PGA Championship and then t26 at the US Open since then he backs it up with a win in Nashville at live and a third place finish in Angel Lucia so that is six combined rounds in which he’s gained a half a stroke per round off the te he has gained uh what is that a jeez I can’t do math on the Fly here two strokes on approach in total over six rounds um very Stout short game in which he’s gained four in a row and he’s lightning hot with the putter right now I would have liked it had they not played valderama last week and they had played the Renaissance Club but I I don’t always get what I want and and it hasn’t really stopped uh hatton’s previous uh major championship uh preparations for for this year um or for other for other Majors this year and if you see I bet you he’s got some really good yeah he’s got some really good trending stuff here he’s playing more than a half a stroke two-thirds of a stroke over his 100 round Baseline again his 100 round Baseline is very good who is screwing up our breakout oh yeah John Daly on the breakouts candidates tool is just skewing everything and scrunching everybody up in here that is annoying I might have to adjust that I might have to remove him because it is or readjust these axes because that is very annoying to my eye but um you do I do think that there is a a lot of things to be excited about for for Fleetwood excuse me for Terell Hatton and Fleetwood too but I think I’m more excited about Hatton now here’s your X Factor right here at $99,100 this is your X Factor this is the guy that either wins you all the money or misses the cut because we’ve got Patrick C leg at $99,100 hasn’t played since The Travelers Championship 3 weeks ago out of sight out of mind didn’t really hasn’t really had a great 2024 but his best two starts have been his last two starts US Open T3 Travelers T5 he has underperformed in major championships in his career he’s made four of his last five cuts at the open a T8 in 2022 a T12 in 2018 if we ever get that first breakthrough major Championship win for Patrick Klay it’s going to be with like a 4% ownership and nobody’s going to you know be involved in it that would be the the perfect way but we can all agree he’s an unbelievable player with great upside very low floor who’s playing the best golf of his season right now two small two two very small sample sizes or you know one very small sample size is two events but he’s playing the best golf of his season right now he is about as cheap as you’re ever going to get I’m scrolling through here $99,100 for Patrick Klay um the last time he was this cheap was the 2023 Genesis Invitational so that was over a year ago he finished third outside of that uh the 2022 PGA Championship missed the cut 2021 open missed the cut and and 2021 US Open finished uh t-15 so we’re we’re in a V you know it’s been 18 months since you’ve been able to get Patrick Klay for $99,100 and he’s coming off back-to-back top five finishes that feels like a very interesting spot to buy back in here’s the 8K range and I honestly feel that these are basically a bunch of guys who are quietly lurking I don’t think they’re going to be incredibly popular I think they all are live to win most of them are coming in in great form no one’s talking about them I have been very bearish on Cameron Smith this year and it hasn’t burned me I’ve gotten away with that in basically every situation uh he did have a good Masters T6 t63 at the PGA t32 at the US Open when a lot of people were excited about him that US Open um it started a couple of things he started to hit the ball a little bit better he gained four strokes on approach and then backed it up in Nashville with 1.1 and now since then he has two back-to-back top 10s ninth and sixth on on live he’s got the best one of the best short games in the world I I’ll I’ll will not deny that but when he was going his best and i’ I’m sure I’ve showed this before he was a very very good second shot player he’s a very good approach player and we’ve gotten I I’ll give this to him you know three decent approach weeks in a row I understand he lost a stroke at Andel Lucia but you add up his last 10 rounds and he’s gaining four and a half Strokes four strokes something like that I can live with that when you’re the best short game player in the world and you have this Open Championship Record 12 rounds 2.16 Strokes gained per round um this actually only dates back to to 2020 you can go back even further than that and get some even even de even more better stuff so his last four open championships are T20 33rd win 33rd I can live with that so we’re we’re we’re we’re taking a couple of breadcrumbs here Klay breadcrumbs in the right direction cam Smith breadcrumbs uh Tony vow might be laying out more than breadcrumbs Tony fow might be laying out loaves at this point look at this trajectory that he’s been on uh t18 at the PGA Championship t17 T8 T3 at the US Open T5 at The Travelers Championship again hasn’t played in three weeks so you kind of get this like forgotten man syndrome here’s his major championship record and just kind of look through the opens missed the cut last year T28 15th third in [Music] 2019 ninth in 2018 it’s it’s pretty good t18 before that there’s nothing about link style Golf Road a golf that screams Tony fi out of me but for whatever reason he gets it done and now he’s playing a lot better and this is another again if if if two event sample sizes are all you need um oh I’m sorry I’m looking at just as Majors but uh I’ll I’ll squash that but I’ll I’ll show you this similar idea he’s starting to putt better which when he was going well look at all the green look at all the Strokes he was gaining putting which is like you know 2022 leads up to the the back-to-back victories he’s a great putter into 2023 he’s putting well then he hits a wall last summer and he loses Strokes putting basically every single start and you see him tinkering well now he’s now he’s back so his last five he’s been a zero a zero plus 1.7 plus 1.7 plus 2.3 I’m going to Star Tony just so I don’t forget about him because nothing about this screams Tony fena should be an open Champion a champion golfer of the year but awesome uh I’ll go quickly on a couple of these other guys here um Tom Kim I think he just posted one of the better approach weeks that we saw or ball striking weeks that we saw yeah six and a half Strokes gained ball striking at the Scottish open he was a zero around the green a zero with the putter got a little bit away from him on uh Saturday and and you know had two really good rounds two bad rounds he’s low-key pretty good at link style golf uh wendam Clark I want to look up windom’s links’s history he shot he went nuts on Sunday and gained six and a half Strokes to the field so one round really improved his positioning but he finished T10 so now he’s got T9 T10 I want to look at his Open Championship stuff yeah 76 and 33rd he does not strike me as a great link style player and I worry about how he’s going to attack this place off the T or how it’s going to attack him quite frankly Shane Lowry’s been good let’s look at L Lowry can be very tricky though because he’s one of these guys who can just pick up yeah see this is good this is what you want this is okay wow I’m gonna star Lowry before I forget too so we’ve got a situation Brewing here um Lowry finished T6 at the PJ Championship it was entirely Fool’s Gold he gained n and a half Strokes putting that was unsustainable we knew that we said said it’s he’s going to have to hit the ball better well he has hits it hits it well at the US Open and putts well hits it really well at The Travelers gain six and a half Strokes ball striking there if we can marry these things because he’s now hitting it better he always putts it pretty well he’s got great Open championship history with the win 12th 21st Miss cut in his last four obviously creative enough obviously good enough won the Zer classic with Rory this year yeah that’s pretty good that there there’s a chance he he snaps off and wins this thing as fun as the 8K range was the 7K range is is a lot less fun I if Jordan spe plays well it will not be with my support he just has not shown the ability to turn up at places that he is supposed to turn up I’m talking about Augusta I’m talking about harbort toown I am talking about last week in link style golf I cannot do it anymore he’s just not good enough right now and if he does anything congratulations as much as I love walk Neeman and how well he has played on on Liv uh basically all his success this year has been on live and he’s not been a good Open Championship player Robert McIntyre has and he has two wins this year but it’s going to be incredibly popular because that pricing came out uh before the victory at the Scottish open now he’s got two wins you know who has two wins this year or multiple wins this year Scotty sheffler who has six of them Rory maky who has one and a half because one was a team event and then Robert McIntyre has two that is it it’s really interesting uh but probably won’t get there on McIntyre cam young oh also while we’re doing the negatives you you know the amount of gray hair I’ve earned from Justin Thomas over the last year or so is is too too much again last week he fools us with opening up with an eight under 62 looking phenomenal doing something he’s never done which is gained three and a half Strokes ball striking and three and a half with the Putter and then he’s miserable for the rest of the week loses at least two strokes every single round and just coughs it all back up and then some so I don’t think you can fool me again cam young Corey Connor sah theala are probably the ones in this range that have my attention maybe I’m sorry we will get we’ll get to two more in a second but here’s cam young who this is what we need from cam be back to having a positive short game which is something that he when he won Rookie of the Year and had those those multiple runner-up finishes that’s what he was doing he was being a great bomber a great driver of the golf ball and adding a really strong short game to that lost the short game but there’s a chance that it’s coming back he’s gained in three straight around the green he’s been up zero putter in his last two those have produced very good results and if you look at his Open championship results the last two years he’s gone T8 and runner up so yeah he’s on my list Cory Connors who I’m not a huge fan of just because I I often think that he cannot putt well enough to out or he cannot out hit his bulky putter has putted very well in three of his last five so he gained seven strokes putting in Canada 3.4 at the US Open and four at the Scottish open those slow easyto read link style greens help guys like Cory Conor and we know we can get to the green I’m growing optimism with Corey which probably means we’re all going to get smoked on that but just there’s there’s at least a stat uh reason for it and then sahith is here I I just kind of throw everything out the wind out the window with sah he’s just a very good golfer you know I don’t I couldn’t even probably tell you what a good golf course is for him because some because sometimes he plays well when he shouldn’t and sometimes he plays horrible when he should play great it just none of it makes any sense but he’s a very very talented golfer who has a a a seemingly improving style every single week the the other two here at the bottom I could absolutely endorse sep straka and AA ptia so sep straa is going to try to do this the Brian Harmon way which is play out of the Fairway constantly avoid pot bunkers hit Greens in regulation and try to make enough p I worry about the last part cuz he’s he’s been he’s been hemorrhaging Strokes with the putter he’s lost in four straight it’s kind of kept him from putting together some really good results because the rest of his game has been has been fine but this is he he has a path right which which not a lot of guys have a path at Royal trun and and SE showed it at at Liverpool right he he finished runner up to to Brian Harman now he was what multiple shots back but gained 11 show ball striking he putted it well and he’s in the midst of the best year of his career and then OE who is turning into a phenomenal putter who drives it so well I mean look at this stat profile this stat profile you know this is a guy who should probably have multiple wins this year that rocket mortgage T2 should have been a win well now he’s $1,800 cheaper than that or was it the Travelers that he coughed up why am I thinking it was the Trap oh boy he lost two strokes at at he lost two Str Two Strokes on Sunday TPC River Highland I guess the fact is that I can’t remember which one of these he coughed up is good because he was in like the final group two weeks in a row so he’s playing well he’s playing Great Golf he already has a win this year I don’t I I I like those guys better than others in that 7K range it’s really easy to pay up for guys because the 6K range is jam-packed with great options I could not possibly go through all of these guys but I’m just going to highlight the ones that maybe you haven’t considered uh Davis Thompson coming off the win and then a decent finish at at the Scottish open immediately following is impressive sunj IM is if if we took out the major championships from his season would be having one of the best seasons of anybody now I know this is a major but it’s not like he can only play well in regular PGA Tour events he has one two three four five six seven top 12 finishes in his last 10 starts the other three that he has not are all the three Majors but this is such a good stat profile Lou usas if you go to the trend tool you will see that Lou usas is basically the I mean again get rid of the Asian tour rounds get rid of the senior tour rounds he is he’s like a top 10 player in the world top 12 player in the world and I’ll show you his profile he’s been crushing it on live uh he did withdraw in Houston but he finished 13th and T4 outside of that he played one Asian Tour event this year he finished runner up in that so he has three different runner-up finishes this year no wins just vintage Louie at the end of 2023 he had back-to-back wins on the DP World Tour those were both in South Africa I believe it’s it’s a great profile he has $6,800 you are not asking him to do very much I’m serious he’s having like one of the best seasons of his career now he’s he’s just doing in a place where nobody’s probably paying attention to it 23rd last year at the open third in 2021 he’s got four top 28s in his last five I think it’s $6,800 You’ take any one of those Adam Scott nearly won it last week playing Great Golf we’ve talked about him a lot this year he $ 6,700 mean mean Dean burer has played two opens in his last three years 40th and t11 he keeps putting together great results on Liv he actually found the winner circle earlier this year we were like two weeks ear we were like a week early in Miami he won he finished t17 last week and didn’t any lost Strokes ball striking he never loses B uh Strokes ball strike he’s a very very Stout player if you don’t think I’m going back to if you don’t think I’m not if you don’t think I’m not going back to Tom McKibben you’re crazy because I am misses the cut on the number last week at $7,000 and now he’s 6,500 and still has all these great results leading into this made the cut at the US Open has been crushing the DP World Tour I don’t care about missing the cut on the number it is not going to influence me much at all Sam horse field has three straight top 25 finishes including a runner up on Liv he is only $6,200 I will pull up Tiger Wood stat profile because any chance that I can show a tigerwood stat profile and and get his head shot up here and uh you know see look at all that it’s it’s fun it’s not pretty I don’t I don’t think this is going to go well for him but I hope I’m wrong he just doesn’t have the game you know the approach play is not there the putter is not there I mean he’s just look at the that Pro it’s just not good but just for Just For Old Times let’s just click his wins and look at his wins oh yeah there they are oh my goodness they’re beautiful in all their Glory yeah that’s the we give the the tiger nod but no investment from tiger for me the $5,000 range still plenty of great options we were all in on John Catlin last week he did not win at Liv though that was probably a pretty big expectation but um he finished t23 gain Strokes to the field continues to have this really good run where he won twice on the Asian tour in back-to-back starts then he’s been getting some starts on live filling in for for Charles how III he’s been playing on the Asian tour goes back and forth goes to Morocco he finishes finishes runner up still very much in on on John cin it does feel like there’s a little bit of a of a dead zone here Matthew Jordan played well enough last week to get you to get you back involved you know Marcel seam was okay I I feel like there’s a little bit of a dead zone but then you get like Matteo Monaco at $5,400 Mato Monero has been awesome this year the Resurgence has been great he finished 15th at the Scottish open now the pricing came out before that but look at what he’s done he’s gained five and a half Strokes at the soall uh 10 ball striking at the km 5.8 at the at the Italian Open 1.7 at the BMW International open then 8.3 at the Scottish open he’s $5,400 I bet you let’s see what his Open championship history is it’s probably way back yeah hasn’t played open since 2016 here missed the cut so remember he had that you know pretty pretty big down turn in his career uh but he playing a lot better now he won in March on the DP World Tour the fact that he is $5,400 is jarring in fact if I take everybody yeah everybody in the in the in the 5K range and just sort by Strokes gain total in the last 36 you get Ernie Ells who’s beating up on old men John Catlin who’s beating up on the Asian tour then you get mon uh Mato Monero he’s third there and he’s probably playing on the most competitive tour of all those guys def he definitely is that’s not even a that’s not even a hot take he’s probably though because of how good he is and what a good value is he’s probably the lowest I want to go I I I know Ernie’s won three times in his last five starts but I’m not super interested in that there is um where’s my other guy here oh here he is 5300 yesper senson made the cut at the Scottish open finished 34th I actually thought it was better than this he won in Singapore in March he’s got a couple of decent finishes couple Mis I actually thought he’d been playing better than that good putter seems to be a little struggle with the second shots I actually thought it was a better stat profile than that okay let’s see what the model has to say custom model rickun good.com allows you to put in any anything you want um and and kind of go from there and have it pump out rankings then you can create lineups and all that so let’s zoom out here we’ve got to do weighted Strokes gain for some baseline because we’ve got Ernie beating up on old guys and we’ve got you know all that stuff right so waited Strokes gain for 15 that’ll just give us our solid Baseline then we need to talk about driving um 12 on accuracy eight on distance five on Fairways gained approach play I am going to do greens in regulation because they’re small greens because more guys from more tours have Greens in regulation as a stat I I I want to do it and I also think that that helps with distance control too so I’m going to put 10 on greens and regulation and then 10 on Strokes gained approach last 24 so it’ll give us 20 on uh approach play around the green put 10 on scrambling six on Sand save specifically because of these bunkers and then we will put 10 on Strokes gain around the green last 24 we have 14 left we will put a little bit on putting obviously I don’t I don’t care too much we could do putting on slow greens could put F uh not 50 five on putting with slow greens and then we could put uh could do five on Strokes game putting last 36 and then put our last four on like bogy avoidance all right my number one golfer is yeah Scotty sheffler no surprise but it’s pretty of a a pretty small Gap Colin is two V uh Xander is three and they’re very close to one another look at this ludvig is four look who is fifth sunj I think sunj is probably Wild toally mispriced Fleetwood is six Rory is seven Harmon is eight Tom Kim is nine Christian bazen hood is 10 he withdrew last week I got to look into why that might have been um SEO is 12 I’m just favoring some of these guys that we talked about so that I can remember them for later I could have this clear my favorites every single week but I like to keep them around to see who who I went with um I just don’t want to forget about some of these guys so where else like AA I don’t want to forget about these oh mon uh Mato at $5,400 is my 38th ranked golfer which I think is pretty good I’ll favor Klay just because get rid of Rasmus get rid of Keegan he does not a very good Open championship history I’ll hit Lowry here where was cam young I’m sure I scrolled past him right maybe I didn’t Jordan speed’s 55th for me uh okay so Lowry I got I just want to make sure I have my bearings here because it’s early in the week obviously as I do this get rid of Sean Crocker sorry buddy get rid of Pavone where was wow Bryson rates out very poorly for me he also doesn’t have the problem is the live stuff doesn’t get doesn’t help him a whole lot yeah okay um here’s what I’m gonna do I’m gon to save this because we will obviously come back to this so 24 0714 Monday Open Championship so we’ll come back to this on Wednesday all right that’ll do it thank you very much go and fill the splash contest $25,000 guaranteed plus $100,000 get the optimal I will see you guys on Wednesday best of luck later