Trust Ludvig Aberg at The Scottish Open! | Golf Picks & PGA Predictions | Links & Locks

Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello, Nick Bretwisch and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Scottish Open on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

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00:00 – Intro
00:38 – Best Bets
09:07 – Course Preview
15:38 – Outright Bets
43:46 – Bet365 Promo
44:33 – Placement Market
55:51 – One and Done

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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #AuthorNickBretwisch #BlueWireVideo

hello you beautiful degenerates and welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 this is your 2024 Genesis Scottish open betting preview we’re coming in with a little bit of momentum after nine out of 10 weeks we had a top two finish but no winners got to the Finish Line last week with Davis Thompson at 30 to1 I had them both on my outright card and in one and done so a little double dip for Davis Thompson and we’re out to the Scottish open Davis Thompson’s in the field at 65 to1 but before we get into the outright Market let’s go with our Best Bets I hear that he’s gone missing here in the mainland in the US but the hammer kid is running loose potentially in Scotland Nick can you confirm this and what is your best bet this week at this it’s happening uh it’s happening it’s the last hammer kit I believe we put on the show if not the last one that hit uh we’re going back to Jordan Smith top 40 plus 140 where ties pay in full all right believe Jordan Smith got into the top 40 Market at the PGA Championship for you great finish for him there uh legendary top 40 headit actually and we’ll see why Nick’s backing him again this week before we get to my best bet Spencer what’s your best bet this week for the Scottish open you’re gonna have to shop around a little bit for this wager you can hit me up on Twitter if you want to know more details but Alexander Bor plus 150 over Billy horel in a matchup all right bork over horel in a matchup is Spencer’s best bet for my best bet I’m going into the player finishing positions Market on our sponsor bet 365 sewu Kim you can find him around minus 110- 115 for top 40s at some places but I’m going to go with seu Kim to be 60th or better at minus 120 on bet 365 before we get into the South Korean Nick why are you fancing Jordan Smith’s chances in the top 40 Market week I think we were just talking about it off air that he has been one of my most profitable golf backers of my golf career or golf betting career so I’m honestly just riding that and the form it’s been a little bit of a mixed bag but he was one of the best ball Strikers in the field last week at the BMW International open T2 there uh I did watch a little bit of that Sunday morning he had a great chance of winning that tournament um so I’ll ride that his driver distance that we talked about at the PGA Championship like he was a top 20 driver in distance on the DP World Tour um for the last three years and then last year kind of started to to go by the wayside and this year beginning of the Season it was completely gone seemed like he was like more of a fairway finder um he’s always been an accurate driver which is great to see but the distance is coming back in the last three events which I think is going to be a great Advantage here especially if the conditions are a little bit on the weaker side or the benign side which it looks like they will um but with Europe you you never really know so again kind of bet with caution I know it’s a hammer kid but still you know you got a caution got to read the fine print um other than that uh two top 25 finishes here T12 last year and that’s kind of when I really started to keep my eye on actually is t22 or in 2022 when he was t24 is that when Xander one 2022 I think that was yeah yeah that was the year I really started to to keep an eye on Jordan Smith T12 last year a cut in 2021 which I believe were very easy conditions does anybody have that I know the conditions really Pi up on Sunday last week last year yeah yeah okay so 2021 is when Min Min Lee won and conditions were pretty easy all four days I think it’ll be a little bit more difficult the looks like the wind will pick up Saturday and potentially wet and rainy Saturday and Sunday so I do I don’t think we’ll see like an 18 through 22 under winner like we have seen in the past I think this will be more in like the 12 to 15 range which seems to be like in a scoring range that Jordan Smith should do just fine on the iron play is solid not great where he lacks is around the green which I don’t think matters a whole lot here so Jordan Smith you’re getting back on the card and let’s go get it done like Jordan Smith love the hammer kid getting back in Action Spencer why are you backing Alexander Bjork in this matchup against Billy horel this is probably one of those rare spots Roberto where I’m actually backing a golfer over anything else it’s it’s interesting because I’m lower than consensus on Hall I don’t want to make it as if I’m trying trying to play horel in any of these markets but for me this just comes down to how much my model loved borc we can get into more of that throughout this show he’s going to feature in every single section for me but I had this a little bit better than a pick them as the fair price in a matchup so even if we’re looking at around a 50% expected win rate that’s going to give us about a 12 and a half% implied win probability Advantage if my projection in the model ends up being correct there are reasons that that might be too aggressive of a viewpoint but it is very rare like I I can’t stress how rare it is that we always talk on this show I’m looking for a 3% Edge at a minimum to give some of these plays and if you look the last couple weeks we struggled to even get to the 3% Mark and I I kind of talked about those bets being lower than that threshold total that I’m looking for and unfortunately those were the two worst weeks I’ve had probably the entire year when we’ve gotten this it’s rare that we get a 12% imp probability Advantage so going to bet him at plus 150 I put 1.2 units to win 1.8 and that just kind of begins to scratch the surface of of what this week looks like for me on the bork train it’s going to be all markets all systems go and that doesn’t mean that this is some free money wager I I don’t want anybody to believe that and we’ll talk about that later but there is an edge in my model that I am willing to back and when I get these edges it’s a very small risk at the end of the day for a player that I much higher on than consensus for my best bet this week guys I’m going with siuk Kim minus 120 for 60th or better I like that this week we’re going to a totally different grass on the greens we’re going to I believe Fescue it is going to roll around a nine on the stin meter which is significantly slower than what we normally see on the PJ tour which is around 11 or 12 uh with places like Augusta National getting up to a 13 maybe even a 14 uh if and allows obviously in Scotland right on the coast you’re going to have to be a lot slower because Gus will move the balls and then if the balls are moving you can’t have competition anyways it’s a very different putting surface and I’m going to be targeting some poor Putters at least this season on the PGA tour and sew Kim when you talk about poor Putters he’s got to be right in the conversation as an all ball striking team not putt player and I love that he has great approach play his irons are always really solid throughout the bag really good with his irons he finds a ton of Fairways although in the outright Market I’m betting on mostly longer golfers SE Kim is a fairway finder and he’s just really consistent from TD green he’s also got a great short game I think that matters this week but I think you can get away with not being great in typical short game that you play in the US I think you can use your putter more often sometimes depending on where you leave yourself and you can also get creative with like four irons and three woods from off the the green as well so I think to look at short game this week you got to be creative and or you got to be just really good at a few typical shots and I think SE with Kim kind of fits them all for both if his putter cooperates I think that this is an easy win however I just hope that he gets on the right side of the draw something always to keep an eye on with golf in Scotland the weather could absolutely murder half of the draw at some point this week or over the next eight days or next eight rounds with the Open Championship next week as well so be sure to keep an eye on that perhaps if there’s a a matchup bet where somebody’s in a different way if compared to somebody else could play that or play first round scores or whatever round scores but I like seuk Kim’s floor because of his ball striking and T green game the putter cooperate cooperates I think he’s a top 40 blck in this field I think after the top 30 or so golfers in this field there’s a real drop off with the DP World Tour being significantly weaker than it has been in the past with the top players on that tour consistently being promoted to the PJ tour recently so I like SE Kim’s chances of taking advantage of that lack of depth in this field at least around the 40th to 60th golfer and so I’m going to be betting him not only for the top 60 or 60th or better at minus 120 but I’ll also be betting him at bet 365 where taies pay in full at plus 130 for a top 40 bet as well really like his floor this week even though I don’t I think that his Putter and the lack of of driving distance might limit a ceiling just a little bit fellas different golf course this week with the Renaissance Club they call it Renaissance it sounds so weird it’s not Renaissance it is the Renaissance Club it’s not a typical Lynx style course built in 2008 by Tom go Tom do but Spencer how did you model this course this week when you tried to come up with your projections you get tricky green complexes that’s going to come into effect on most of these Mass L oversized locations that’s a quirk that do implements quite frequently you talked about it though Roberto when you were talking about the texture of these greens you get Fescue here that’s a particular surface that makes everything much more challenging you get this stagnant feel that players are going to experience on their putts my model picked up on that Trend by trying to pinpoint what I call the three-step process for how a player combin length putting on similar green so anything that’s going to be slower in that nature and then expected proximity for a course that will generate just under 70% of its shots from 150 plus yards all of that is a very straightforward answer of trying to highlight the main steps for me this week when I’m trying to find success on a course like this but you know it’s the answer the secondary answer that all of us have talked about so far like any stop that you’re going to get in Europe yearly a lot of the tracks difficulty is going to come down to weather we can get this as easy as burn vburger 22 under in 2019 can also get as hard as Xander schley’s win two years ago when he won it at seven underpar that’s probably more than anything a wait and see answer that takes place for DFS contest we want every last bit of information out there before locking in decisions but I weighed my model heavily with that three-step equation that I talked about so that’s going to look at the proximity from 150 plus yards 18% of my Strokes gained Total return came from off the te that’s that split that heavily favored distance you will see that being a elite with the players that find success in one of those two areas and that’s kind of the game type construction that I’m looking for but then you’re also looking for that third step to where these slower greens how does a player able to scramble around the surface I like the point that you made Roberto where there’s a lot of new factors that go into play this is not your prototypical around the green sort of course and I talked about these being larger greens to begin with but there’s an ability to putt from off the surface that doesn’t even necessarily mean with a putter as you talked about so you add all of that together I agree with you Roberto I think we get a watered down field at its core I know that there’s a lot of people in the space talking how this is one of the most challenging fields that we have seen all year but I don’t want to take the DP World Tour rankings and sure there are a handful of guys that are going to find success here but I don’t want to take those rankings as making this a more challenging contest that a lot of these other tournaments that we’ve talked about I still think it’s a volatile layout at very core and I’m trying to take that route in my build here and understand to where if we want to say it’s Xander Rory oberg and that’s the top of the board of what my model thinks has the most projected win Equity if one of those three names does not win that’s where for me this board really starts to open up and you know there are maybe those 30 names that you talked about it dips into that Windam Clark section and everybody knows wam Clark and I have quite the relationship together on some of these bets that I’ve been able to hit on him and I don’t have an outright on him this week so that could be the regret but it’s players like wendam Clark Robert McIntyre there are a lot of really intriguing names that carry that distance and putting combination can find the right guy that does that for 4 days on a course that is wet right now I think that’s who’s going to end up walking out of here Victorious yeah I like the driver Potter combo this week I also thought that around the green if you are an elite player I think this type of layout suits you but if you’re not if you’re below average I’m not too worried about this week so I think there’s kind of a weird pattern there for strokes gain around the green that I’m looking at and just general short game and then for putting I’m not afraid to take on some bad Putters or Putters who might have a chance of Performing AB above their Baseline for the season also some of these guys have been off for three weeks so maybe there’s a little bit of a reset there so I’m being a little bit aggressive in the outright Market this week with some guys who I think have high upside and can capitalize on the putting change um Nick anything else you want to add on the Renaissance club and how you modeled it this week no I mean maybe a little bit I guess I did weigh three-part avoidance very heavy so kind of to pck on everything Spencer said those mid to Long iron play especially if it’s going to be wet I think the long iron play more importantly um obviously modeling that based on what they do off the T so kind of it’s not a one-sized fitsa course for for scoring that way a little bit of Bunker like sand saves um that’s what blew Windham Clark way up in my numbers and now I see Alexander bork way up there in the three- putt avoidance I think that’s a great ticket Spencer so I will you could run that one for me uh that any day I can pick on Billy so I’m I’m down to do it but overall kind of right there with Spencer and everything that he mentioned I like it I got one uh question for you guys do you guys know what the link the word links comes from or why they describe the golf course as the links uh is it something to do with sheep no kind not not really I’m gonna mute Spencer no I’ll I’ll let you tell us Roberto so the lynx is a Scottish term for Coastal grasslands it is what connects the beach to the farmlands and the reason why golf proliferated on this spot is because the sandy soil is not fertile enough for farming so if there’s no practical use for farming or and growing food and it’s not the beach what else you going to do there but play golf so that’s how golf originated right there on these coastal areas on the links and it’s an actual term uh fun fact so without further Ado let’s get into our outright cards Spencer I got a feeling we’re gonna talk about Alexander Bor again we are I I’ll save that one for the very end we’ll we’ll tease it even though it’s already been revealed at this point but uh there were two ways I thought you could view this board at least according to my model so one would be Xander and Rory graded about as well as anyone has all season regarding projected win equity we want to have the Xander discussion I understand I’ve been higher on him pretty much for seven consecutive months in the market I will say that I didn’t find the nine to1 totals in the space all that outlandish for him to capture the title and then two before we actually get into the picks and I mentioned this a second ago outside of Xander Rory and oberg thought this board had a ton of issues directly beneath that section we could argue about what would be a fair price for those three names to win but if Xander o Berg or Rory don’t capture this title I thought this became very wide open so my card has six names on it it’s stretching between 18 to1 and then this mystery 600 to1 go which I don’t know who that could possibly be at this point but ludig oberg is where I started I I got him at 18 to1 that has moved more into the 16 to one range I will say this the closer that oberg gets to Xander on the odds board the more that this would become a St away or an eventual bet on Xander before we started recording you could still find this at 17 the one at bet 365 in the enhanced Market you can correct me if I’m wrong there Roberto I still good perfect so I I think that 17 to one number is very intriguing there and that is where I would be moving for that ticket but my model landed in this spot where essentially you had if we’re running this for Pure upside like forget safety for a second that the safety numbers are going to put you in the spot where Rory moves closer to Xander and oberg moves more into his own little tier there but for Pure upside here it was Xander small little Gap Rory and Ober pretty much the same exact Viewpoint as secondary options and then there’s this range directly beneath them to where I almost preferred a lot of the 40 to 50 to one golfers the Bobby Max the Matthew fitzpatricks the Windam Clarks not all of those names ended up fitting on my card and you’ll hear the names that I ended up taking taking instead of those options but I didn’t think there was that big of a difference between a lot of those options and these options that we’re talking about in the 20 to one or higher section and I know Nick has a differing opinion on that and I’ll let him talk about why he likes one of the guys he does because if we’re talking about players that have the ability to putt from off the surface and they’re around the green game gets better I think Nick guy that he’s going to discuss is probably candidate number one who sees the Improvement there so we’ll use that as the teaser there but o Ober at 18 to one I took Fitzpatrick at 40 to one I don’t think you have to look any further than Fitzpatrick’s link style pedigree 10 career victories eight of those wins have come in Europe I understand that we get this 40 to1 number here I think it’s very in line with the recent volatility but the long-term upside that we’ve gotten from him on these traditional European style tracks made me think that this was a price that was enhanced because of what we have seen from him recently so top seven of my model for weighted scoring high-end marks for scrambling total driving projected putting on similar greens I thought this was a spot that if this was an American event on a typical American course and to me this is more of a borderline links track like there’s a lot of lynx fors that are going to be in every Lynx property that you can’t ignore but I I would say this was a little bit of a hybrid and and what Nick was talking about I don’t think this is going to get into that 18 to 21 under range either I would say the winner probably lands somewhere between 12 and 17 under and the closer this pushes to 12 under the more my model ends up liking Fitzpatrick in this spot so I took Fitzpatrick at 40 to1 I took sahit the gala at 66 to one this would be the one error that I made on my card I grabbed him at 50 to one he has taken money in every credible matchup over the past 24 hours you can take that for what it’s worth because sharp betters seem to very much dislike him this week but I I don’t necessarily even disagree with that Viewpoint when we’re talking about head-to-heads here this is a high ceiling versus low floor sort of route to consider you look inside of my model third for weighted off the te plus approach plus putting fourth for projected Strokes gain total fourth for weighted scoring the high-end marks that you would expect for a golfer when we keep talking about distance and putting well the number one player in my model for distance and putting ends up being Windam Clark which that might end up being the mistake with him not being on my card but the gala lands inside the top five for that category exactly what you would like to see for this course took Tom hogi at 125 to one that’s been more so obliterated in the legal Market you can still find 115 the one if you shop around this is a very similar answer for me to the 600 to one golfer that we’re going to get to in a second where he checks all the boxes outside of weighted total driving and the weighted total driving might limit some of the upside potential but there is this very straightforward path for him at 125 to1 to use his approach game and this positive trajectory Mark that he does have on similar green complexes so I really like that ticket as a bit of a dart throw there took Sam Stevens at 200 to one thought this was a similar profile to Min wo Le and Davis Thompson just at triple quadruple five six times depending on which player we’re talking about there and then spoiler alert the player is Alexander borc at 600 to1 Bor has been extremely solid at this venue in the past we might be lacking the ultimate high-end finishes from him but he’s been inside the top 42 over the past Four Seasons my model graded him inside of the top 10 when combining expected off the te approach and putting into one category it also put him in that same range when you took long iron play and scrambling and then you look at that high-end Mark of three putt avoidance I also ran that in my model just putting in General on similar green complexes to me whether this ends up being right or wrong this was much more of a 100 to1 sort of golfer than this 600 to1 price that got released early on Monday they are obviously going to be clearer and safer routes to go than betting a 600 to one golfer but I took a swing here to win 30 units it’s a dart throw at the end of the day it’s another one of those lowrisk High upside sort of plays it’s 0.05 units I realize what I’m signing up for on a bet like that it’s tough to win a 600 to one ticket we see it happen so it frequently on the space it doesn’t mean that it doesn’t happen in these spots but it keeps going back to the original point that I’ve mentioned a million times here we don’t have Scotty Sheffer we don’t have Tony fenal you can start mixing and matching all the PGA tour players that are not here you lose all the players that are are going to be on live that are not not in the tournament this week and then you supplement that group with a good quality DP World Tour group but that’s more of where bork’s home is to begin with so you know Bor was finding a lot of success until he got himself on the PGA tour early this season and he face planted early in the year if you take away that face plant and you keep him over in Europe or you keep him having success on the corn fairy tour like he was to me this is a golfer that would have come in at 125 150 to one so it’s a price grab at the end of the day I’m G to take my shot here and I mean this is like I said not the last time you’re going to hear about him on the show all right so Spencer is all in on Alexander bjor I’ll also note that you can find Sam Stevens at 225 to one on our sponsor bet 365 right now so always be sure to shop around but bet 365’s outright numbers are always something you got to check out in my opinion uh Nick who you got on your outright card this week all right so the Spen the guy Spencer was talking about is Victor havlin started my card at 23 to1 basically like I said with uh who’s I talking about Jordan Smith and the around around the green play don’t really value that at all here at the long irons is kind of where Victor makes his money and the driver uh three put avoidance looks good especially on the slower greens so I’m I’m riding him as my top guy I really did want to get to Xander shley he grades as like a 7even to1 player but everything in the market now is upper sevens eights guess you could maybe find a 9 to1 on bet 365 if you’re interested in using that much of your outright exposure on Xander shley I do think it’s his tournament to lose love l b just couldn’t really find any value there in the market Tommy Fleet would be in 20 to1 is kind of silly but it is what it is wiam Clark at 48 to1 um Spencer pretty much talked about him being someone that kind of miss out on his card I did take a dive on a guy that I had a ton of value on numbers wise and interested to hear you guys thoughts when I hang up here but Matthew Pavone at 100 to1 I rode Jordan Smith at 170 to1 and someone that I love a ton that I I had priced at like 77 to1 so to get this number in the Market at 100 to1 Adam Scott I think I don’t know I I know he hasn’t want to turn even top 10 one in the long time but I just think there’s so much game to be had of his ball striking with the irons just is decent average to the field I think his putter especially on the slow greens and what he can do with the driver especially at this age is just damnn near impressive so I think that that’s a guy that can win especially if it’s wet and we get some wind on the weekend I like his odds in a very tough condition on the weekends if that does come to fruition I wrote a Spencer on Matthew Fitzpatrick the best number that I can get was 39 to1 that is still out there depending on where you live and I believe that is it I have room for another 100 to one golfer right now it’s Rasmus hoard that is leading the way um other than that I’m looking at not Billy horel uh kind of like Kurt kyama and then I was looking at Matt Wallace and Victor Perez but I would love to get your guys thoughts on Matthew Pavone because I found he was the most valuable ticket according to my numbers and that is a guy I have not backed if not I have faded most of the year which has cost me in in some spots for sure I like them my model has had him as a top 25 expected sort of play um the one name I would throw in there and the number has dropped it was 125 to one that has fallen since but I would consider Eric Van Roy too this is one of those prototypical tracks for him where um I do have a wager on him we’ll get to it in a second I think maybe if you want to work your way up this is there was a price in the market for a top 30 that just did not match the rest of the space in reality it’s probably even better worked up higher than that as a top 10 or top 20 sort of bet but it’s those sorts of names that I’m trying to throw darts at and that’s where I think a lot of this value ends up Landing but the one thing I just want to add to this before we move forward and this is why evenity like my card might be too Overexposed I I am really afraid that this is just Xander’s tournament to lose and with my numbers as strong as they were on him at a price that was really betable at the end of the day I didn’t want to find myself just throwing Dart after Dart after Dart in that 50 to 125 to1 range and we end up here on Sunday and Xander wins by four and it’s like well obviously he did he’s number one in my model in pretty much every key category that I looked for so um that would be the one thing I would tell everybody is just be cautious of your exposure if you want to build your car differently and want to be more aggressive at the top with Xander I’m not going to talk anybody out of that I think that’s a realistic route to cons this week yeah I think all three of us like like Xander more than Rory and obviously like him more than everybody else in this field absolutely if the season ended and shle only has one win although it is a major championship I think that that would be a little disappointing although you win a major you’re never disappointed but I feel like he deserves more than one win with the way he’s played this year and he’s good enough to be a really good number one player in the world in most years the problem is Scotty sheffler is having a generational year so we don’t give Xander shafley as much credit as he should have I believe his n he’s he has 11 top 10 finishes nobody else on the PJ tour has more than six outside of that guy Scotty sheffler so he’s really been Head and Shoulders the second best player in the world this year and good enough to be number one in most years uh Nick I like Pavone I think he’s somebody who can gain eight Strokes for the the tournament with his putter or with his irons and I think that’s really intriguing he’s played great golf at some of the most difficult courses on the PGA tour which really catches my eye win obviously at Tory Pines he tied for 12th at the Masters fifth at the US Open as well where he gained Strokes throughout the bag so I think there’s a lot to like with Pavone I think that obviously the driver him not being super long is an issue but he has the goods to make up for it and unlike on Aaron Ry who over the last couple Sundays has been a rough watch he’s really shrunk in those big moments pavon I feel like is somebody who gravitates toward the big moment and I like that about him I think he’s just a grinder and I got a lot of respect for his game um also Spencer wanted to know Sam Stevens I think he’s a great play got to follow him during our feature group coverage a couple weeks ago at the rocket Marge classic and when he was going on a run and so that was really cool he was putting the lights out his iron play has been pretty underwhelming for most of the season but I believe that day was pretty decent and he smashes the ball off the team which he has got to be pound-for-pound one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the PJ tour probably one of the best that nobody talks about because you know the all the other ones uh but his ball speed ranks 35th on the PGA tour 39th on the PGA tour at just over at about 178 and a half which is well above the tour average of other golfers like uh Scotty Sheffer who’s normally been around 177 in change for most of the season I got to update that but um sheffler is 175 in change 175 point8 so actually slower than I last checked but yeah I like Sam Stevens I think he’s got a lot of upside and I’m tailing you at 225 to one in the outright Market on that also Nick for Adam Scott we were discussing this earlier before we got on the air but he seems like somebody like Davis Thompson a couple weeks go who can who is above average at everything or at least has the ability to be the best in the field at just about anything in any given week but just hasn’t put the pieces together for whatever reason so I love upside plays on Adam Scott top 20 top 10 outright bet in general and the bigger the field I think the better value it’s going to have because he can do it he can do it um so I like those plays uh I don’t have on my card yet but I’m going to shop around after we get off the show and see what I can find uh but without further Ado get into my outright card I’ve got ludick oberg been betting him at a lot of the tougher courses on the PJ tour love his combination of what could be generational driving and then also really strong long iron Play I’m all in on ludvick he has no weakness in his game um give me Lou Goldberg at six at 17 to1 which is out there at bet 365 additionally I also have a ticket on Justin Thomas at 15 at 50 to one JT among the top 10 in the PJ tour in Strokes gained approaching the green and strokes gained around the green big issue for him last year was his approach play fell off to way below his standard on the PJ tour he’s perennially been a top 10 approach player I think that as soon as the putter stops being a huge anchor weighing down the rest of his game he’s going to pop and I think that taking a chance on him at 50 to one on these totally different style greens is my chance to do that I also think that if the win picks up I like his chances with the strong short game and his ability to shape the ball both ways ultimately it was between JT and wiam Clark and I kind of lean toward JT there because I think he has more Avenues to win but if the win lays down winham Clark I think is a great bet I just like that JT can move the ball a little bit more rather than windom’s big fade potentially getting smacked around by the win um moving on to the rest of my card Spencer I’m with you on sah dalala 65 to one out there at bet 365 like his more consistent approach play like distance off of T even though he’s not Elite he doesn’t have Elite length he’s long enough for me the putter can heat up and the short game has uncharacteristically been a weakness for him this year but I’m still bullish on that in the long term and at 65 to one I thought this was a really good number grab additionally Spencer I thought you kind of nailed it when you talked about the top three golfers I’d say karawa is Comfortably a fourth best golfer in this field but looking at the golfers in the 20 to 35 to1 range all hard passes to me who I think should be probably priced poster to 40 to1 Nick you mentioned Tommy Fleetwood Tommy’s awesome he’s just not that long and I think that limit is upside so 22 to1 is way too sharp of a price for me on Tommy Fleetwood although love his game I’m ready for Tommy uh finishing out my outright card this is a real hold your nose play on maxom at 75 to1 he’s drifted from around 50 to1 all the way to 75 I like the a little bit of a reset that we’re getting with him getting a couple weeks off he had some really rough showings in the prior weeks before a little break he was just about dead last at the Charles schwap challenge poor performance basically everywhere but tied for 20 second at the memorial after that the off the play has been uncharacteristically poor over the last few weeks and he’s actually been below the field average in driving distance each the last four tournaments which makes me wonder if there’s some kind of injury there two of those four tournaments were on Club down courses so I’m not going to read too much into that and several and two of those four also were 70 man Fields where it’s all the best players on the PG tour so there’s a little bit of selection bias there but un bullish on H in the long term I think if you want to bet him this week don’t bet him for safety bet him for upside but he’s shown just over the last couple months that he can pop in any of the four key strokes game metrics and we know with him winning on forces like Riviera and and um and also winning at Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow they can handle a big boy Golf Course where you’re gonna hit a lot of long irons and I think at 75 to1 he is a much better golfer than pick your name of golfer in that Fe in that area of the odds range on bet 365 or anywhere else so I’ve got a couple ugly ugly plays with JT and Max H but I like the value for them and hopefully we can cash in on those guys big time or Lou V oberg finally gets that win that we’ve been looking for so far in 2024 um and additionally I said I tailed the Sam Stevens 225 to one so love Sam Stevens I also have two outright bets on the opposite field Isco Championship formerly known as the barbasol championship out there at keing Trace in Nicholasville Kentucky so without further Ado this is the moment everybody’s been waiting for I’m betting on Ben Silverman and JJ spawn both of them are 35 to1 I like Silverman as a plotter who can capitalize on strong approach play and then knock in putts with this great putter the biggest question for his game is off the te is he gonna be long enough to contend take advantage of of par fives and comes in with some really strong approach play over the last three weeks and being Strokes through out the back last week so I like that as a nice sign I also like JJ spawn who’s had a really rough season but he’s also entering with a lot of momentum he’s got a hot approach play his putter has been terrible this year but he may have turned a corner with gting Strokes last couple weeks he also just doesn’t have a huge weakness in his game statistically and top 23 finishes each of the last two weeks so I think he’s surging a little bit I like that he’s a winner on the PJ tour one at the Valero Texas open and it’s going to be really interesting to watch the very limited coverage of that tournament with the two favorites being kids who played in college this year and Michael dorbon PJ toru valoran and Luke Clanton whom had the easiest top 40 bet of the week last week for us so interested to seeing how those guys do L clanton’s all the way down to 8 to one in some Mark in some places in the out rght Market uh but we won’t bore you too much with the Isco Championship fellas any other plays on the card yes Nick all right I figured I could Shuffle something around when I had that open 100 spot I could just put a little less on Fitzpatrick because that was a pretty heavy ticket I got a feeling guys he grades very well for me and I know he’s kind of been broken but I love to see the putter wake up the last two weeks if we’re talking about long drives and long iron Play It’s kind of where he’s been above average this year and usually what we see is the wedge play from him Jordan spe would it shock you if this guy makes a run this week I know Sunday kind of sucked for him maybe I don’t know if that like he’s got so experience so much experience no one’s going to talk about him like I know he was somewhat in the hunt Sunday but a lot of less media a lot less media pressure than guys that he used to be being compared to I have at 48 to1 so to see 55 to1 and I believe that is at bet 365 kind of wna want to fire that one up we had this discussion coming in of players to look out for for the Open Championship that maybe weren’t producing the results that we expected and and for me like the more I thought about that question and I gave Jordan speed as the answer on the show The Other Name that I’d like to at least throw out there because he’s been mentioned so we’ll make this a two-part here is probably Max H I think Roberto’s on to something with them I’ve always made that if H is to win a major the Open Championship is probably his best chance to get that done so it’s a nice spot for H at a price that I mean he’s a top 15 projected win Equity candidate for me in this tournament and you know we’re getting him now drifted out into the 75 to one sort of range here so I thought he was an interesting name but I I don’t hate the Jordan spe call Nick like it’s volatile for all the reasons that we know at the end of the day but these creative tests around the green the ability for him he has been so great off the te for the past couple of months and it’s just been this short game that’s gone South for him we’ve seen it turn around in bits and pieces I think it’s an interesting call on your part and if there’s anybody that is the streakiest player in golf it’s Jordan spe so if you found a little something last week I mean one of the first times let me pull him up again where his player card was I believe believe it was the best iron round he’s had well US Open was really good but he couldn’t make a putt but overall the most Strokes G he has obviously if he finishing t26 man he disappeared on Sunday and that’s a birdie Fest too so I don’t obviously don’t think like the leaderboard will be that volatile Saturday and Sunday I think guys that have a great Thursday and Friday will probably be in the mix Saturday and Sunday I don’t think we’ll we’ll see many people just fly up the leaderboards on moving day like we did see at the John Deere classic but if anyone’s streaky it is Jordan spe and I feel like I’d rather be on the right side of that at an inflated number compared to the pedigree that we’re talking about in Jordan Speed I think he’s one of my favorite plays now especially on like the DFS side of thing I think when we talk about maxom that’s probably where I’d go I don’t think I’m ready to bet Max Homa outright yet but yeah like Jordan spe is in the same price tier as Davis Thompson which we love Davis Thompson I want to give this show credit for kind of pumping him up well before I think you know anybody outside of Davis Thompson’s Family would would talk about his golf game so I’ll uh I’ll give with S I think Davis may be a fade and we just play Jordan spe in that range and maxom I want to note something that Jordan SP per round this season on the PJ tour for a whole tournament he’s gained over one shot per round on approach One Time Justin Thomas in his last uh well no um so for the whole tournament so four turn four okay okay okay so that came US Open um but Justin Thomas has has done that three of his last four starts so I I just think I like JT too I like JT too the upside for Speed specifically for me I like everything except for the approach play I know he’s coming off of one of his better approach weeks but the lack of form there when he was the best approach player in 2013 2015 when he was the best golfer in the world right and he’s lost that and I know there’s a lingering wrist issue which gives me a little bit of pause but I don’t hate the bet at 55 to1 I think this is a great chance to get him where you said the right word I think it’s creativity and the driver’s been awesome and this is a great track for him so I like that I think there’s some other guys in that range that I prioritize over him but especially if in DFS which is y’all’s ball game if ownership’s going to be advantageous for you guys to play Speed I think that’s a sharp play I mean if you had the same price I know Davis is a little bit more higher even that would you rather have Davis Thompson for 60 or Jordan speed for 55 that seems to be the market consensus here here’s the problem with the question at least for me I am so Davis is Davis for real coming over to well that’s I think I think you are correct with that to where if you’re if you’re placing these two in a matchup against one another I would take Davis Thompson if I am shooting for the moon for upside I would probably rather have Jordan Speed but I I also don’t think Dave Thompson is the the right example to use here in the comparison like I don’t know what player I would go to to make the comparison instead but to me Davis is the real deal I don’t think he’s necessarily going to win but your point at least checks out to where there’s a lot of optimism around spe over these next couple weeks and I I think for him to actually have a real chance to win the open next week we’re gonna have to see better than what we’ve gotten in so I don’t know if he necessarily wins on that and I would tend to agree with Roberto for making a direct comparison game I think him and Justin Thomas are very close they’re kind of a coin flip I might lean in the Justin Thomas Direction but I mean we’re we’re picking and choosing very small margins there I I think speed for DFS is one of the more Savvy routes to go I’ll just leave it at that I’d probably rather it’s speed in the outright Market as well for those reasons and because as Nick mentioned as well Davis Thompson I don’t think has ever played golf across the pond so I would like to see him get a little bit of custom to that but he’s on a heater and he as we’ve laid out in this podcast over the last few weeks is an awesome budding golfer who best golf is still ahead of him even though what we saw last week was incredible so I’m very bullish on Davis Thompson felt bad that I didn’t use him for my one and done for the rocket mortgage when TI per second the only way it could be Vindicated was if he won last week he won so shout out to Davis Thompson very proud of you and for catching that outright ticket um so I’m not necessarily I’m I’m biased here but I would still go Jordan spe I’ll uh keep it rolling here and I’ll get into our or the rest of the card and actually before we do that a quick reminder that this podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary and that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 older in Kentucky gam problem call 1800 Gambler or 1-800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply all right I’ve got one play from the Isco Championship then I’ll get into another one that I think is going to be a popular play I am fading Michael Kim he is in a matchup with our boy Mac Meer Mac mner is minus 110 Michael Kim is minus 125 so be sure to shop around that one’s not on bet 365 but this is a fade of Michael Kim who earlier today shout out to Michael Kim first off I’m a big fan of Michael Kim even though he’s a cow bear he gives us a lot of access on the PJ tour gives player perspective that I think you won’t really find anywhere else and I personally am not satisfied with a lot of the questions that are asked in press conferences following the rounds don’t know that everybody watches the rounds or knows who the guys are as well as they should but Michael Kim doesn’t wait for people to ask him questions he just puts great content out there if you don’t follow him on Twitter I think he’s a great follow uh today he tweeted Out full transparency I tweaked my upper back neck and could only Putt and Chip today got some treatment done on it and we’ll have to see how it feels tomorrow hopefully the body will cooperate and heal it quickly I like this bet for MC Meer as somebody who is a safe player whom the putter is his biggest weakness that limits his upside in a birdie Fest like this week but MC Meer is the better ball Striker and I like targeting him him on tougher golf courses I think he’s gonna make the cut and be somewhere in the 20 to 40 range Michael Kim has those issues and isn’t nearly the ball Striker that MC mner is I like the fade of Michael Kim and hopefully we get a hii matama where he plays a couple uh shots and then just withdraws um Michael Kim hopefully he’s all right he’s also in the bet 365 finishing positions Market where you can bet him 43rd or worse you can take MC Meer out of play if you’re not bullish on MC mner but I think these are interesting ways of betting him of course we want to wish Michael Kim the best and hope that this is just maybe like a short-term Stinger um that he can recover from because love to have him around the PJ tour um moving on we are all bullish on Sam Stevens I think the outright bet at 225 to one if you don’t love that as your preferred way of betting if you don’t love betting long shots I think another way to bet him is for top 40 I’ve got him at plus 200 where ties are paid in full and top 20 where ties are paid in full as well at plus 550 is very bullish on him overall as a really strong ball Striker I was talking to you guys about this earlier where if you play well at the Valero Texas open it’s a tournament where not all the best players play Given where it is on this on the calendar being the week before the Masters but it’s a tough golf course it could be windy and I think it’s a real test of golf that can show that guys are ready to take the next steps at some point or at least have upside and I think that has been shown with a Pao we’ve been bullish on him on the Pod this year and I also believe that this applies to Sam Stevens who last year at the Valero Texas open in 23 was a solo second finisher and gained o almost three and a half Strokes per round for the week so he’s a really he has upside I don’t think he’s the safest play but at plus 200 in ties paid in full and plus 550 for top 20 I thought there was value there uh anything else I miss on Sam Stevens guys no I think we’ve all more or less given the examples and I’m going to be joining you so we all are going to have that play um in reality maybe he doesn’t fit the mold as quite as much as the next name I’m going to say and I are those all your plays Roberto yeah I also had see Kim for top 40 but I mentioned that earlier um wanted to note that he gained Strokes putting in his last two starts which hasn’t happened all year which puts me in the Dilemma of can it really happen a third time or at the same time hey he’s more likely now than ever maybe figured something out maybe he switched to the magic putter maybe he found a lab putter out there I don’t think he has I looked on Getty um but maybe he loses 0.1 strokes and we H the top 42 I don’t think he needs a gain Strokes to be top 40 here by the way um I think this is would agree more of me being bullish on the price I found in the market and that the field kind of drops off around 30 players but yeah that’s all my plays so I was going to get into my card so I agree with the Stevens play you can probably push that a little bit further you did Roberto up the board the one for me though that is more of the Boomer bust option is uh you got to shop around for this I took Eric Van royan top 30 at plus 225 the rest of the market there was in the 170 180 range so it was really a number grab at the end of the day if you don’t have access to that price I would probably push this more up into a top 10 or a top 20 sort of bet because uh you know I talked about this with you Roberto before we filmed the show this is one of those options where it’s high ceiling low floor but he has that prerequisite I’m looking for of dist and putting that you can throw it into one category together and these would be the typical events that you would expect them to find success so those are two of the top 30s and 40s I have Alexander borc plus 240 for a top 40 That’s where Tai’s pay in full you can get plus 250 if you’re just looking for the best price you can find in the space over at bet 365 there’s a very small discrepancy in value between those two don’t have a problem if that’s the only route that you can get to there at bet 365 I also took him top 20 at plus 7 50 that’s essentially a half of unit spread across those two bets so they’re going to be minimal Wagers there and then the last play that I at least want to talk about here and you know we keep calling it The Big Three of of Xander Rory and oberg but if you really dive into my model the reason why oberg gets included in that mix is just because he has more of a spike poal than a lot of these other names that we’re talking about but if you look at my model over a two-year running perspective there are nine players that are averaging one stroke in Strokes gain total per round of those names there is a separation where Xander’s at 2.1 Rory is at 1.96 and then the third name that I continue to be off of almost every single week is not actually Ober which is the interesting thing here it’s calling morawa at 1.35 and I understand all the answers everybody’s going going to give me an all the push back of why this doesn’t make sense I understand Colin is gaining in four all four strokes gain metrics consecutive weeks week in and week out I have some concerns about the way that he actually fits this venue and if you take that difference here of Rory being 1.96 and Colin being 1.35 so you have a 0.61 stroke difference in expectation that’s just on any generic course you move it specifically to this venue with the way that I built my model and it got a lot closer to one stroke of expectation per round that Rory would be better than Colin I seem to believe in a lot of markets have moved in this direction there was one book out there that was slow to move I bet Rory minus 130 over Colin as everyone knows I don’t normally play these star versus Star battles I just thought this was one of those situations where the public consensus and the public Viewpoint around morawa has really pushed him closer into that range with Rory and Xander than I think he actually Bel so I wouldn’t say this is so much a fade against Colin as what it seems like on the surface I would say this is more of a fade of the actual expected difference between these two names and me believing I’m getting a golfer that is expected to be one stroke per better round which is a lot if you really break this down I it’s it’s where Xander and Rory are just so good compared to the field so I if my model ends up being correct with that minus 130 is far too cheap of a price to be laying and I think there’s reasons why that has drifted out at some sharper books more in that 160 165 section in PB play I like it I like it I just as spenc laid out I don’t know if we’re gonna be able to find it but I’m going to look around as soon as we get off because I thought you laid out that out well uh the driving distance that Rory has is going to be a big Advantage here and Colin’s been really hot with his Putter and a short game and it’s just a very different type of green surface and around the green surface and that might regress here to his more historical averages so I think that’s interesting to check out SC um Colin also before he won at Royal St George has played in the Scottish open a couple years ago and he said that he just hated how his clubs were interacting with the turf and all this stuff and so and then he of course won the next week but happened that week but um I don’t think that I think that there might be some adjustments to be made and Colin during one of the more reny rounds a couple weeks ago I can’t put my head put my finger on exactly which course it was it might I think it was the the memorial uh might have been Saturday or Friday but he was trying to play in between Gus but when the win was going on and so if you find somebody like AAL morawa who’s predominantly a left to right player mentioned this earlier with Wham Clark when the wind H when the wind comes into play especially at biger Gus uh and miles per hour I think that could be an issue especially because he’s shorter off the tea but I am very bullish on morawa I’m very interested in seeing how he does this week and it’s not slander to say that Rory mroy is a better F than him on this course and I thought you laid that out very well Spencer um Spencer was that all your place or can we sling it to Nick yeah sling it over to Nick that’s everything I have this week that’s more exposure than I was expecting to get but you know matchups keep kept popping up and there’s a lot of really intriguing top 40 bets and we’ve talked about the majority of these names over and over again like it’s it’s been the Sam Steven show past my bork take that we’ve had but there are a lot of of players in that General section to where I think the market overcorrected itself you’re looking at a golfer last week in Stevens that was $9,000 in DFS contests and I know we get a much stronger field this week but Thompson was only a couple hundred dollars more and I don’t know that we have a massive difference I given all the reasons why I like Davis Thompson and I do like Davis Thompson this week but like those two Min wo Lee I think they’re all very similar in expected finish and uh the market is just much higher in some of those spots and that’s not even slander towards minw Lee it’s just it’s kind of how I feel about Sam Stevens above anything else Nick who you got on your card and then we can go to one and done yeah the only thing different I’ll just make it quick is uh obviously Jordan Smith top 40 I rode the Sam Stevens ticket I also punched a ticket and had decent value 30 points of value on Adam Scott top 20 at plus 320 like you gets it done I don’t think he can win but I do think he’s a a very live top 10 type of player in this event that no one’s talking about I like the Scott play We already touched on that but we’ll get into one and done now for one and done three people had Davis Thompson in our 15 player pool including your boy so I continue to seesaw back and forth with Nick for second place so I’m backing to Second a million behind our venerable leader Michael leof Nick is 900,000 behind me and Spencer is further down the board this week I have I think out of every week in one and done I’ve been less I have not been less excited for my pick or less confident in my pick as this week I have Lam Clark available I have Victor hlin available I’m kind of penciling those two guys in for the last two weeks at fex St Jude and the BM championship and I have Tom Kim available I kind of want him at the Windom I don’t think that feels going to be super strong so I kind of saving him there I have Fitzpatrick available I have SE straa I have sunj M so I think sunj Fitz are two of my candidates I also have minw le I’m just not normally as bullish on Min le as others so I’m kind of leaning between one of between one one of those three guys maybe I’ll go with Fitz it depends on like the weather I’m going to be tinkering between those three guys but yeah that’s what I’m thinking this week Nick I’ll sing it to you who you got for one and done I was between Fitz and havland I went with havland nice okay so we’re gonna be different Spencer I will say and this has been you know Nick if I I know Poston was fine but Aon Ry I did try to help you out a little bit there that would have been the correct choice I have two oneandone contests and I was telling Roberto this before we started the show I have $18 million in one of the contests and I have 6 million in ours and there’s been five winners in that contest that I haven’t had on ours and I’m pretty much making the same picks every single week outside of five or six of those examples and so I had Davis Thompson last week and I will say Nick you did try to push me in that direction and that would have been the correct call I ended up going with JT Poston which was a mistake myself there um I think I have Windam Clark available I’m just going to be shooting whatever the best player I have left because I’m very limited on options so it’ll probably be Windom Clark for me but uh we’ll we’ll we’ll reconvene we’ll we’ll come back for 2025 and we we try to produce a better result still got a chance in the most made Cuts Market I believe 5% get get your money back um all right fellas where can we find your work this week I’ll start with you Spencer you can find me on Twitter at tof sports I’ll have all my inter tournament information and Bets over over at Action Network and then you can get my model over at Roto baller if you want a more in-depth look on any of these numbers that I’ve talked about awesome Nick where can we find your work this week Best Bets at Action Network and then uh Spencer I’m thinking tomorrow night for better golf PB will be the uh the Tinker show right before tea off early Thursday morning in the state so Wednesday night we will be live on Twitter YouTube all that good stuff to talk about the DFS board and hopefully we don’t talk you out of good lineups or hopefully we do talk you into better ones so we’ll we’ll see you then tomorrow night for the last show before lock be sure to get your plays in on time first tea time is 1 a.m. eastern time on Thursday morning midnight for those of us in Central Time even on Wednesday night for any of you West coasters so make sure to get your lineups in you can find me on Twitter or X Roberto 8213 you can check out all of our golf content at the Action Network I’m our golf here so if you see anything looks wrong feel free to roast me on any any way you want um got great content this week we have Joshua Perry with his Global Golf picks that’s the article I’ll plug this week he we’ll give out picks on a zillion different tours so we go to sh Sunshine tour it’ll go to the Japan golf tour they’ll go anywhere one of my favorite articles that’ll be live on Wednesday morning you can find everything else from the Olympics to um to Copa America and the Euros going on right now in Action Network so be sure check that out thanks again to everyone who makes this podcast possible especially you the fans and our producers David Payne Matt Mitchell and noan eer Hoffer who gets cross the finish line every week thanks again for tuning in this has been the links and locks Scottish open Genesis Scottish open betting preview with little Isco Championship sprinkled in thanks and let’s hope we make some money this week in North baric Scotland for