2024 Genesis Scottish Open BEST BETS & PICKS + ISCO Championship & LIV! | The Early Wedge

Eric Cohen is joined by Patrick McDonald and Sia Nejad to break down all of the best bets and picks for The 2024 Genesis Scottish Open.

0:00 Intro
2:00 Storylines for Scottish Open
10:00 DFS Picks
17:00 FRL
20:15 Matchups
29:00 Finishing Positions
36:00 Winner
40:00 ISCO Winner
42:30 Long-Shots
46:30 LIV Golf Picks

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[Music] welcome to the early wedge presented by bmgm I am your host Eric Cohen if you won money from this podcast last week or you’re got you plan winning money this week make sure to like this video because we absolutely crushed it on this show last week it was absolutely unbelievable I hit Davis Thompson but I had him you know behind in the without Market one Cen NAD had him on top so great pick there Patrick McDonald was all over it too I mean there’s no way that you could have watched this show last week and not one Mone all right let’s bring in the stars of the show to talk more about it we have the host of the early Edge every Monday through Friday at 10 a.m. eastern see you NAD and the best golf writer on the planet in my opinion who puts out viral posts on social media left and right right it is Patrick McDonald boy I’m having a problem talking today this is GNA be a fun show see I’ll start with you Davis Thompson how’s it feel you hit that big one and uh you know feels pretty good to get on the board again huh yeah first of all you hit it as well I mean you had the same number I did in fact you hit it in a better way in my opinion because you were able to find the same number I got with a without market so I mean that was kind of cool good find by you I I don’t I can’t remember exactly where you found that but we both hit 22 to1 what was really cool is with about 10 holes left our our recap screen we we put it out on Twitter other than a couple of long shots that we had like in the 100 to1 150 to1 range sprinkle plays we had six players collectively because we had a lot of overlap on in our outright card and I believe five of those six with about nine holes remaining were inside the top 15 and we ended up with Denny making a charge who of course was Patrick lone play uh which is pretty amazing in and of itself but then we had two of my three were Luke Clanton and Davis Thompson who finished one two so it it was a it was definitely a great week and I’m very interested to see what happens this week I think a lot of the characters from last week that flew over um could do pretty well this week too so Patrick I took a a kind of a philosophy of you know see his top pick of Davis Thompson and your top pick of Denny McCarthy who I also liked and I gave out last week and I put them in a combined top 10 parlay felt pretty good about that one at the end of the day so I’m going to give out my special top 10 parlay later in the show but your thoughts on what we saw over there uh in that last event in the Quad Cities I mean should we take away that Davis Thompson is the new Superstar everything that you’ve promised Grayson Sig to be now Davis Thompson is well Sig’s got a few more years on Thompson but I mean Thompson’s always been uh this guy I don’t think it’s too surprising that he’s a winner on the PGA tour I’m sure he’ll become a multiple time winner on the PGA tour and contend major championships to tell you the truth um so I’m not too surprised about it congratulations to you guys again I appreciate the Hat tip on the tweets I’m not hitting outright so I got to make money some other way and uh it looks like for me it’s just going viral a couple times per day well you’re getting your money from X or Twitter whatever you want to call it but I also have a potential Showdown later in the program that’s another way for you to make money see I want to ask you before we get into storylines this week uh current form was huge for Davis Thompson he had had a great US Open was really good in Detroit and then obviously carried that form now we see kind of the same thing with Aaron Ry this week do you buy into current form when making your plays or do you kind of look at course history what’s what’s your mix so to speak to be honest with you it varies week to week uh I I think current form recent form is really really big for me course history can be really big for me on certain courses certainly when you’re come you’re coming to a link style course I do think that factors in there’s also a lot of unknowns with when you talk about recent form with how some of these guys have played on the DP World Tour and how that translates in a an event that has PGA Tour players in it so there’s a lot going on with this particular tournament that I think you know may have me light in some places and maybe stronger in other places in terms of like how I’m spreading out my money uh but yeah recent form is is really really big for me I’ll say this especially in like the lower level the lower tiered events where the talent field is watered down a little bit I’m usually reducing what I I don’t model in the typical way but when I’m looking at metrics I’m usually reducing it to like sometimes 16 24 20 rounds because I want to see which of those quote lesser players are really hot really in good form that’s part of what led me to Davis Thompson and Luke Clinton frankly fair enough all right well now it is time to get into uh we’re going overseas we got the Genesis Scottish open now we’re also going to give out picks for the ice go and live as well isn’t that what they call it the ice go Patrick is that is that right or is there something I believe it’s the Isco Isco next week I guess you could you could say we’ll call it the Wasco am I right this guy’s on fire like I don’t Even’s no off Swit on five minutes into the show and he’s not even singing yet all right Patrick you say this is the best two weeks in golf Why Oh by far the best two weeks to be a golf fan in my opinion I mean look at the options we have from a betting perspective just this week every tour has a tournament the PJ tour has two tournaments so there’s plenty to get your fix on and you add in the aspect of waking up early watching a little coffee golf get in your fix that way guess what you still have your afternoon all to yourself you you can help around the house you can help your wife do whatever you need to do because guess what the next morning your butt is going to be on the couch watching golf again and then it leads into the final major championship of the season the open which personally viewing wise is my favorite to watch as well so Links Golf is always fun there’s a little Nuance to it uh it seems like it takes some time to learn and guys have figured it out some UNS some surprising figures have figured out so uh you got to factor that in as well all right but Patrick for those of us who live on the west coast and I know you’re going to give me this East Coast best Co what I mean it’s a disaster because it starts before you go to bed and then you either miss the players that have played overnight or you wake up and it’s it’s over like you don’t even get a chance to watch so this is why for the for East Coasters I I see what you’re talking about for me on the west coast can you understand where I’m coming from here I will say the east coast is the W worst excuse me time zone to watch sports in in general so just let us have this one or these two I I will give you that seea uh I know you’re the one person who will be pulling an allnighter this week uh to watch and probably next week as well uh I hope you’re going to still be fresh for uh 10 a.m. eastern hosting those early Edge shows yeah I mean not only that we have another Network show at two o’clock where we’ll probably be dishing out some live plays because of course the Scottish open will have concluded round two or I should say round one on Thursday so something to keep in mind on CBS Sports Network at 2 o’clock it’s going to be a really good time for the round to be closing and for us to give out uh a live outright or some matchups things of that nature real quick I gotta give a shout out speaking of golf and and maybe Mike McClure joins us on Thursday on the network show Robert stit says thanks early wedge crew plus McLure got fifth last weekend in the FanDuel Main Event uh that’s a lot of money from I I do most of my stuff on DraftKings but I’m pretty sure that’s a lot of money so congratulations to you okay am I pulling an all nighter was that the question first of all okay real quick that is yes yeah I’m probably not pulling an all nighter because of my responsibilities at you know 10 in the morning 2 o’clock in the rest of the day with that said Patrick misspoke here he said hey you got the overnight golf it gives you a chance to kind of like maybe help out with the chores or you know spend some time here and there that is not the way you play it let me just tell you you guys and girls have built in excuses throughout the entire day because you got the Open Championship excuse me you got the Scottish open and they got the Open Championship next week that’ll take you to basically the early afternoon but good news the Isco is an alternate event which has some bigname players so you have an excuse to go basically to 6 7 o’clock without having any responsibility whatsoever and in these two weeks if you don’t use that excuse you’re a lesser man than me because you gotta use it you absolutely have to use it these are two great tournaments two great betting opportunities and superstars in both I’m looking just as much forward to the Isco as I am the Scottish open because it’s the same betting opportunity it’s the same DFS opportunity it’s the same outright opportunity why watch both and put everything else to the side Welly I’ll tell you see you just promoted Go I mean you should be hired by the PGA Tour after what they what you just said there I I don’t know about the Isco like I try to stay away in our text thread I told you I was like I I just don’t want to get involved in the Isco I’ve got my bets for the you know the Scottish and the live event like I I don’t think I can handle this Golf Overlook but one thing I can’t handle this week so watching Rory ma well maybe I can’t watching Rory mroy which Rory will we see this week the demoralized US Open version or a man on a mission for Redemption well it’s a it’s a good question I think now I know some of you may disagree and we’ll get to that later in the show I think he is going to be a man on a mission had been playing excellent golf minus missing a couple of three-footer at Pinehurst and I’m glad that he did because I we were profitable several of us uh with Bryson to Shambo so that was great I think Rory makes it back for us and more this week but we’ll find out what everybody else thinks later in the show all right let us get on to DFS picks and Patrick you’re going I mean Grayson Sig isn’t in this event so you’re fading a popular name here at a pretty good price in Tom Kim and I’m not sure why but you’re gonna explain 9500 a good price here Tom Kim really good course history yeah great course history couple top six finishes bit of a sneaky good uh lyx golf player in general right he uh finished I believe runner up at the open last year as well so coming off the the runner up finish the playoff loss of Scotty Sheffer at The Travelers I I just think uh the Run has kind of I’m not going to say it’s run its course but I I just like some of those other names I think I’d rather play a havland at a lower ownership I think Hadi is going underappreciated in general like he normally does uh Fleetwood will be popular um which we’ll talk about that later but I think Tom Kim’s just going to drive up a lot of interest at 9500 and I’m not sure that he can if he can win this event to tell you the truth I’m not sure if it’s going to be a shootout you look at where he’s won his three it’s been all past you know 21 22 under and uh so I’m not too sure if he uh has that winning upside that that I want out of someone in this nineish K so I’m gonna pass on him which means he’s probably gonna win and instead we are going to The Bargain Bin baby 5900 matth Jordan the real golf fans will remember him from last year’s open top 10 finisher a native from Royal Liverpool was one of the great stories that week he he he’s playing great I mean his starts haven’t been great he has a couple top five finishes on the DP World Tour but he’s top 40 in this field in terms of Strokes g t to Green Top 10 off the tea as well has a top 20 finish when it was just a European Tour event on this golf course so good enough for me Rio hassun I think I absolutely Ely nailed that 6,300 we’re going back to the well with him ball striking T green was great just didn’t make enough putts last week he’s an old DP World Tour guy uh so he should be comfortable uh on this golf course as well so I’m going back to him and then Kevin you top 20 last week 14th off the te 15th in terms of approach in this field one of the best fields of the year he’s top 15 in both ball striking categories short game has leaves a little bit to be desired but I’m hoping the Links golf layout can kind of ease some of that so I’m going to take a chance on you you I think your I think your picks are yeah listen that is a great pick by you I love how you uh have all these Bargain Basement picks see has got some higher uh profile guys uh on his list but here’s the one thing that sticks out I really like mini this week we’ll talk about him later on but see I also really like Tommy Fleetwood and your fading him at 9900 why well let’s see what happens with his ownership because that’s the main reason I’m fading him first of all I don’t think he has a ton of win Equity I just don’t and I think history kind of tells me that I’m right I could be wrong this week we’ll see but the point is he’s 9900 which puts him in the top five from a pricing standpoint but let’s go down to like the top six or maybe the top eight nine and 10 which includes Hideki matama minmi what are what is their win Equity versus Tommy Fleetwood I know we can look at the last two years and be like Tommy Fleetwood Tom Kim they finished really great the last two years well it’s a two-year sample size let’s see what happens in year three but if those are going to be the comfortable plays for people and right now they’re not generating a ton of ownership relative to the four guys at the top for example but if they’re going to get ownership that is a little bit off I’m very very happy to fade them because on Sunday even if they’re in the conversation I think they fade away and believe it or not I think guys like Davis Thompson which we saw last week and minw Lee I think they enter the conversation on Sunday whereas Tommy Fleetwood fleeting fleets away from the conversation if you will so I I’m just not interested in taking a guy that everybody wants to take now if his number ends up being low then you know maybe I’ll reconsider but right now it’s trending somewhat upward I like Min mle like I I’m playing DFS and the betting Market a little differently this week normally there’s a lot of overlap like I’m not betting minm Le in the outright Market but at 9200 in DFS or I’m not even betting him in matchups to be honest with you at 9200 in DFS I really the value because of his upside because of his history here and I’ll say the same about Davis Thompson obviously his recent form is amazing let’s see how he does and of course he’s never played before at least not professionally and you know a link style let’s see how he does but at 7,900 I’m willing to find out same with Bobby McIntyre this is Bobby Mack is your quintessential DFS player because he’s either going to sink you on day one or he’s going to be there on Sunday afternoon it’s one of the two including on this course so this is how I’m playing DFS not necessarily guys I would lean on in a head-to-head matchup B and an outright but guys I think can Spike there are guys you’ll see when with my outright card I have a very small outright card there are guys that I’m betting there that I’m not playing in DFS I’m very very likely fading in DFS that’s how I’m playing I will say this from a DFS standpoint because the top four guys are very popular I I don’t hate the idea of having a balanced lineup and taking guys that are uncomfortable to you in the 9k range for example starting your lineup with Victor havin mmu Le starting your lineup with Victor hland and hii Yama or something like that and really having a balanced lineup I think that’s going to be different because of everybody’s everybody’s tendency to grab at least one guy at the top just something to consider oh I’m sorry but you’re on mute so this must be Sage Sage advice it’s just that we can’t hear it wow the chat’s on fire I I’m enjoying listening to to you seea and Patrick and then reading the chat which is absolutely on fire I just you know I put myself on mute and and embarrassed myself Patrick what’s the deal why is everybody on Victor hoblin this week I’m gonna fade him a little bit later in the show but what are your thoughts on on havin are you in or you out oh I’m I’m big time in on Victor Hof this week yeah I that wasn’t even The Showdown that I was gonna go for H for you I’m just pointing that out well I think uh I think I’m on both sides of that matchup so um no I I just just think you think lyns Golf and he has a great pedigree in Lynx golf he has three top 15 finishes to start his open career and I think the thought is he could just putt from everywhere the short game isn’t going to be tested as much as it is here in the United States so I think that’s the uh the general thought but I uh I just like him on lyx Golf and the way he’s hitting the golf ball currently so I’m going to eat the very bad short game okay well I and I think that’s fair and then when we look at frls with ca’s awesome list here who’s number one on that list won Victor havin all right CIA based on what Patrick just said why are you buying in on hin early and are you buying on him late I mean can we just recognize that just the professionalism of EC he goes from being on mute like disaster bill it took you till July actually yeah it took you to July to actually mess that up so Props to you in some regard but then you ask Patrick about Victor and it transitions perfectly to the first round leader Mark which of course was by Design I’m not saying that factiously I know you did it that way so again you you you always take credit away from yourself it’s kind of your stick with the Davis Thompson thing and all and the mute button but uh you’re a pro my friend Victor havind also a Pro Plus 3500 morning tea time if you look at how he’s done over the last two years here and again I’m saying the last two years even though goes back further at the Renaissance Club Renaissance Club that’s how I’m I’m gonna say it Patrick I’m sorry you can corre correct me later is it renissance Club desperately want to call it British Open next week as opposed to the Open Championship we’ll see where I fall there but the thing about havland over the last two years and I don’t know if I finished my sentence it’s when the when this became a co-sanctioned event that was two years ago and that’s why a lot of people are just using the last two years but feel free to go back last five or six years on this one uh jain’s short game was actually pretty good when he missed the cut and he finished 25th but his around the green play was pretty good and I think it in one of those two and I think that’s reminiscent of what Patrick is saying is that link style go golf is for Victor I don’t know that I like him to Win It although I don’t hate that play first round leader though I think the conditions are going to be really good on Thursday I think we’re GNA see soft conditions we’re g to need a guy that gets it out there that can be dialed in with the ball striking and potentially with the putter havin can do all those things so I’ll take 35 to one minu same thing well not really the same thing because the ball striking isn’t quite there because of the approach play but he has been okay on a approach if you look at like two of his last three tournaments he’s starting to Trend at least decently with a approach play but I’m looking for off the te game I’m looking for hot putter which actually transitions nicely into Robert McIntyre and then finally Matthew Pavone 75 to one I’m really starting to see his game Trend too he went through a stretch early in the year where he was awesome then he wasn’t awesome and now the last two tournaments he’s really started to pick it up again I don’t think he can win this tournament personally I think he’s a really good DFS play in fact I think all of these guys are really good DFS plays but I really think Pavone is sneaky in the first round leader Market 75 to1 I’ll take that every time by the way these are all DraftKings numbers just so happens they had slightly better numbers than some of the others with these first round leaders coming up next the Matthew pavon love keeps growing and Patrick’s going to lose a hundred bucks to me after we hear from one of our sponsors football action continues are you ready for this as the grid iron is taken over by the great white North it’s time to stor The Fortress it’s time to fight the catch the Canadian football league on CBS Sports Network you know one thing about that’s awesome about hosting the show is I get to kind of see what you guys are thinking before we go in and look at this cheat sheet and then I get to you know if you post your piic early enough I get to go make some bets before we do the show and try to get the best numbers possible and it feels good when I write the Monday column you guys write your columns and we all kind of have some synergy and one player that we have some Synergy on is Matthew pavon and Patrick you are picking him as the top Frenchman now I don’t know is Jean Vandal in this one is Victor dubon in this one because I don’t know many other French golfers that might be uh playing this week can you educate us so bear bear with me with uh some of these pronunciations Victor Perez I can do that one uh Julian Grier I give that a b uh Ro Roma lettuce Antoine Walker no Rosner and Ugo CAD I’m gonna call him Zant uh so it’s Matthew Pon over those five golfers like C said Pon final group final round in the US Open nice little comeback there at the tra Travelers Championship as well T 16 I want to say and so I’m going to ride with Pon who has played here pretty much every year I believe between the DP World Tour and the PJ tour well it’s his first year on the PJ tour uh top 12 finish year one of those so I’m going to ride the hot hand on Pon over Perez Brier cheese Roma lettuce Antoine don’t call me Walker Rosner and Ugo cant and then I’m taking H Xander shafley even money over Rory Macy because uh I I just I I think honestly right now Xander is the better player like slightly not by much but at even money I’ll take it you want some of that action Patrick you in or are you out I I love I love me some Rory maroy bounceback this week was my storyline will be an outright I’ll play the low number I don’t care Rory’s going back to back in this event so are you in or are you out I know I I know what you’re doing Eric and I I know you’re puffing out your chest you just won an outright on Davis Riley here you are taking a minus 120 favorite acting like you’re you’re doing the crazy thing against me but uh I see right through you and I am in baby snake hit that [Music] music hey I’ll give you the juice if you want it do you want the 120 or do you are you giving me even money okay even money okay all right okay so I mean that’s good I feel really good about Rory this week uh you know my record against CA not so good Patrick I’m I’m only a couple under 500 I think so you know I gotta try to earn it back here see uh I mean I’m tempted I’m tempted to go and challenge you with Fitzpatrick over Matsuyama why do you like the other way because I hate Fitzpatrick I I just think his form has been off I think if the conditions were a little different sorry I guess that was kind of blunt I don’t hate him as a person I bet you actually he’s probably a little like boring to hang out with he seems a little kind of I don’t know like note takey like I’m not sure like he’d be much of a conversationalist uh but either way his play’s been bad and if this course was a little bit more like we know with Fitzpatrick we always talk about him or a lot of people talk about him in the context of tougher courses that’s where he shows up it’s not like this is a birdie Fest or it’s a super easy course but I also think because of the conditions and and the potential lack of wind which is what it’s tracking for uh relative to other Scottish opens I I just don’t think this is really going to be the course for him you know neither of their histories are very impressive but when we talk about recent form Hadi matsyas is much better so minus 110 over over Fitzpatrick who again I don’t think has played very well at all uh I’ll just take that every time I think this should be like minus 130 or so for the record I almost took a play on I believe it was Rory over Colin morawa and so that’s Patrick’s matchup in your Showdown reminded me of that I think it was Rory minus 30 maybe over at B MGM uh that was certainly a lean for me I just kind of wanted to point it out um my other play is Isco there’s a lot of matchups I I liked on Isco but I I didn’t by the way this used to be the barbasol for those of you that are like wondering where this name come from this is a different sponsor Barber Soul Championship same alt event I like Carson young a lot uh we’re gonna get to my Isco outrights later in the show maybe some live outrights from you guys maybe one from me uh spoiler alert Carson young is one if you follow me on Twitter you’d already know that because I kind of tweeted it out yesterday afternoon JJ span’s in really good form too don’t get me wrong but I think Carson young is is you know chasing something here we saw evidence of that last week I think he’s in really good form I like how he he matches up for matches up against JJ spawn they match up kind of uh they’re not that different here so it’s not that I think Carson young is a much better option than JJ spawn but I think his form is really trending in in a really good direction so I’m taking him minus 120 in a tournament matchup over JJ spawn well uh I I mean I’m going to trust you on the Isco and I’m going to try myself not to bet it don’t tempt me please uh but that makes a lot of sense I did get JJ spawn the other week uh I think I I credit myself for bringing him back to life after missing 10 of his most recent 15 Cuts uh back toback what top 10 or or pretty close to that so JJ you can credit me for that uh for picking you the other week in my long shot column on the Sportsline uh in the sports line article all right my head to heads Matthew pavon over uh Patrick’s Boy Adam Scott at minus 115 on DraftKings pavon T12 here in 2021 as we’ve talked about but that Lynx prowess of late pretty darn good high finishes at the Alfred Dunhill Championship last fall and then of course Pebble Beach both though were uh 54 whole events after rain washed out the final round Adam Scott only W top 25 in his last seven that’s why Patrick isn’t picking him uh in anything recently and he missed cut in his only appearance here last year and I’m going Tommy Fleetwood now listen I mean this is the last time I checked this event is in the United Kingdom and it’s not in America and we know the rules about betting Tommy in America and I’ve said it a million times on this show this year we don’t bet Tommy that often ever on top in America but hey when we’re overseas why not and Vic is not playing well so at minus 125 also on DraftKings I’m doing it Tommy top six here the last two years and he lost in playoff to Aaron Ry in 2020 and I’m taking a waitand see approach on Vic his around the green game is so bad but the putting does nullify that some here just have to see more before I buy in fully before next week’s show and if I pick Vic to win next week uh you can call me hypocrite so I’m okay with that all right Patrick before we go on I I I want to talk about uh our our finishing positions I know you don’t have anything here what do you know about the Scandinavian mixed tournament from last month it’s a very interesting event and what can you tell us about that before we go into this it it was one of the all-time worst collapses in professional golf by Sebastian sber right uh you who did he lose to oh gosh that’s a great question he lost to Lynn Grant who is a uh ladies player because it’s a mixed event so one that’s right but it’s a mixed which I didn’t even know existed until I was doing some research for this segment but you say like where would you put this Soderberg collapse among recent meltdowns because it has to be up there right oh I if you bet him that week I am still praying for you I’d quit yeah I’d quit it is that bad um and he has been a guy to do that I bet him at the Volvo China that got cut to 54 holes I was like this is sweet he has a three-stroke lead we’re finally goingon to cash a ticket in Europe nope snap hook off the 18th hole double bogey loses that tournament and then a couple weeks later he does this you had the DP World Tour social accounts tweeting out is he gonna break the all-time scoring record is he gonna do this is he gonna do that and then he doesn’t even win the golf tournament it was that bad he missed like a two-footer on the last hole well to double bogy so this is a good question by SE uh on in the chat is it worse than the Jean vanel 99 Open Championship collapse which is an altimer you you can’t compare a major championship to the Scandinavian Mex you can’t compare the two okay I just wanted some context before we got into pix here all right CA you’re going with an awesome pick here A++ plus I mean this is just giving away in my opinion this is this is the sports books being generous Min Lee top 20 at plus 130 yeah minw Lee has been you know he hasn’t been good enough to win tournaments over the last you know let’s three four months but he’s been good enough to basically top 25 a majority of them and you take that and you take the good and for the record I wanted to do T30 but it was like minus 140 I figured I’d go T20 here at a at a nice plus number but you look at his history here and you look at what he’s been doing and his course fit and when I say what he’s been doing I’m talking about his recent form it’s good enough for me to be in that top 20 Market part of the reason I don’t have a lot of finishing positions because normally I have like three or four is because I do think there’s a little bit of unpredictability with he the link style course or like the pseudo link style course but also all of these DP World Tour players that we think we know something about like I think C speaking of the chat was talking about Tom McKibben how he’s getting a lot of love and and he is getting a lot of love I don’t think think he’s going to be like super popular in DFS but a lot of people are talking about him um I’m pretty sure like in terms of his profile I think he’s pretty accurate off the te as opposed to long but I’ll have to double check that accuracy not going to be super important for me here but he’s been playing well and I think he played well here last year but the long and short of it is I don’t want to like dabble in the finishing position Market too much because I think some of these guys that I’m not fully aware of on a week- toe basis on on the DP World Tour can sneak inside this the the top 20 or sneak inside the top 15 top 30 and push some of these These Guys these American players or these PGA Tour players I should say like right outside the top 20 top 30 and so that’s why I just kind of went with one here uh minmi T20 plus 130 speaking of seay he got bit by a shark he said that earlier in the chat I’m pretty sure he said like 87 stitches or 187 something crazy uh that is unbelievable I don’t think it was recent but he mentioned it nonetheless uh man hope you’re hope you’re doing okay that is a that’s a that’s a crazy one I definitely missed that one uh wow a bull shark 187 Stitch wow unbel I don’t even know what that’s talk about throwing us off courts that does it yeah I need all the detail not all the details yeah tell us where not to go uh Patrick do you know anything what Mark green said about Martin kimer losing a nine shot lead once in Dubai is there any that you remember about that um you know I’d like to think my knowledge is extensive but that one is escaping me yeah I I I figured if you don’t know about it I we need some more context Mark all right my finishing positions Aaron Ry we’re gonna play him top 10 top 20 playing great right now you just can’t bet him to win it just after we learned that in Detroit I hope you didn’t make that mistake last week because he’s not winning anytime soon but uh his top 10 in his last two top 20 in his last four events and his putting has been El gained nearly nine Strokes last week and he won here on this course in 2020 against a much weaker field did beat Tommy Fleetwood he missed the cut in his last two but I’m taking the form over the the history the at this event the the recent history at this event get that top 10 at plus 330 with ties and top 20 plus 150 with ties so take a look at that I am G to take Tom mckb don’t know a lot about him but when you look at the uh the numbers here four top 10s and five top 30s in his last five DP World Tour events and he was t-41 at Pinehurst and I very well could have walked right by him and had no idea who he was and that I would be picking him three weeks later on early wedge just the way it happens sometimes but good for Tommy was t35 here last year I think he jumps up into the top 30 at plus 160 and then well we teased it earlier listen this Soderberg Guy Sebastian Soderberg top 30 plus 160 so he’s second in the race to do by standings behind Rory mroy now way back Rory’s like Scotty in these rankings and then Soderberg is just way back but can can he get over this van deves collapse which is what I had in my notes here even before we talked about it at the Scandinavian mixed uh he did withdraw from his next tournament in the middle of it that’s not a good sign but at plus 160 listen since the end of January has six top 10 and seven top 30s in 10 events including that withdrawal I’m gonna take my chances here on this guy I mean a top 30 Patrick like there’s there’s some I’m not expecting him to contend but this is a fairly safe bet no I I like the pick you look uh since the end of March it’s been T2 second T3 t68 that was the PGA Championship and T2 the guy only he always contends on the European tour uh so just for those who are listening and didn’t uh aren’t reading the chat c said this was away from in Barbados uh five foot in five foot water uh those people yeah we’re not going anywhere near Barbados anytime soon and if so I’m staying at the all-inclusive where there’s not water nearby I’ll go in the pool uh my mind is blown but first if you want to make a beted on Soderberg any of these other guys I think a good place to do it is one is BET MGM bet MGM has you covered when betting the Scottish open and Isco championship this week bet MGM customers can receive a 25% profit boost token on any straight play this week on the PGA tour log on to the BM GM app for more offered details coming up next some outrights and of course my auto fade list after we hear from one of our sponsors give your hands ladies and gentlemen are you ready come [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] all right now it is time for the part where we have been crushing it the last few weeks if you’re watching this show and you’re playing our outrights in some capacity you have made some serious money over the last two weeks last three weeks because they had Bryce or last four weeks with with Bryce in there okay all right we’re gonna start with you Patrick wait a second you’re go wait you’re you’re picking Tommy Fleetwood who wait well wait let’s let’s start with my auto fade list don’t we haven’t we learned that Tommy Fleet would generally I mean I know it’s not in the US but still Tommy to win I’m seeing that nobody else here we have to worry about this week Scotty’s not playing Xander I mean we’ve already talked about that Rory’s gonna beat him uh JT F anybody CI should be worried about on this list first of all outside of Xander maybe Tom no I mean Xander’s already crossed off uh but yeah no if Tommy wins okay it’s fine because he’s not in the US I think I I think Jake should add a non Us Part like it that should be exemp I know he won’t though we know how that goes all right uh Patrick tell us Tommy why are you betting him on top to win yeah he is the guy I chose at 20 to one just the The Links Golf experience is really hard to look past a couple top six finishes here recently like you said the runner up or the playoff loss uh I believe that tournament was in October during the co year to Aaron Ry and he’s playing a lot of really good golf not like great yet but good and I think the iron play took a big step there at The Travelers Championship so I’m going to go with the Englishman it would be vintage Tommy Fleetwood fashion to get his first PGA Tour win and like a co-sanctioned DP World Tour event that’s not in the US like you said so I I just think everything lines up for him this week and then Victor hin at 22 uh the ball striking especially with the driver I mean he drove the absolute cover off the golf ball there at The Travelers Championship that should set him up for success iron play has been generally good and he’s an above average putter obviously the short game is quite poor but I’m going to look past it I’m going to take his upside I think he’s closer than it looks I I understand want like potentially being late on him I’m GNA try to be early on him I think these next two weeks are his weeks and the fattic Cup playoffs I think he’s in for a big end to a summer honestly but uh I’m buying in early at 22 so I’m playing the without market and it is including Rory mroy who I I’ll talk about but then see it also includes Xander and ludvig who you like this week why are you on both these players this is very unusual for me because I’m usually trying to maybe find one guy that’s shorter than 20 to1 or maybe shorter than 16 to1 and then I move on to some you know 20 to 30 to one range and then I move on to the 4050 to one and that’s what I did this week I mean that’s that’s how I sort of start like who do I like in the back of the pack you’ll see a long shot in a second when we get to that part but when I looked at the 20 to R 20 to1 range the 30 to1 range and so on and so forth there’s just wasn’t anybody I was in love with so almost by process of elimination I got to Xander schafle at plus 850 everything is clicking for him I mean he just does everything well and I especially like him this week without Scotty Sheffer without all the live intimidation from guys like Bryson dambo and Brooks kka guys like that uh Terrell Hatton who I think could be really good next week and who might be good on Live this week as well so I like Xander shofet plus 850 it’s not like I’m paying plus 600 here or plus 550 or even plus 700 I think plus 850 is a really fair number on Xander and the way he’s hitting it and the way he’s putting it’s it’s just too good to pass up the other one ludvig plus 1800 is where I got him when I published my sports line article I think it’s plus 1600 pretty much everywhere I still like that number I think he can pop he missed the cut last year not super concerned about that I am concerned about part of the reason he missed the cut last year is because his around the green play was quite bad uh but again I think there’s variance when it comes to around the green play and I think the the good conditions here and the fact that he’s seen the Course once will lend itself to him being better in that department he can get hot with the putter we know the ball striking is great driving distance is going to be a key for me this week he he checks that box as well so these are my two main outrights I’m keeping it pretty short uh and I’m moving on real quick I wanted to answer a question from jpar Corey Conor he says you know he’s been in good form no love for him I personally don’t have love for him only because from a DFS standpoint in particular because priced kind of high and normally that’s okay because that means his ownership’s low but for me right now it’s looking like he’s getting some ownership Putter’s coming around for him if you want to take him as maybe not an outright but a top 20 or top 30 play I don’t hate it but it’s not for me all right I got two winners on the board this week among my three picks because Rory mroy is going to win this event by at least three strokes and I am not concerned about I just just save the tape Mark the tape right now 39 whatever in the Jake mark it down when Rory wins this tournament going away you’ll remember where you heard it first uh and then Tommy Fleetwood or Min Le is gonna finish second and we’re GNA cash both of these tickets uh we’ve talked about all three of these players I just think Rory it’s Redemption time I know he won here last year and and was making birdies in wind gust that I mean I would have made quadruple kuple Bogies and Rory making birdies at the end of this event last year that’s all I needed to see he’s bouncing back this week and I think he is my first click for next week uh at the Open Championship now before we go into long shots CA is going to give out a few not so long shots but it’s the Isco you can’t help yourself you’re gonna play these three players and you’re gonna start with a player who you mentioned the other week uh has a great last name so uh 16 to one let’s hear what why Michael thorbjorn yeah you remember two weeks ago I didn’t have the best DFS week because two of my plays were Thor thorbjorn olison and Michael thorbjornson I think neither of which made the cut was it wasn’t great but last week we saw what what thorb is capable of and he’s got he’s got some decent competition at the iso obviously Luke Clinton is some serious competition but he’s like plus 1,000 plus 1100 and between those two I don’t think there’s a huge difference I think both of them are great I was obviously on Luke Clinton last week but if I’m getting Thor Orton at plus 1600 vers versus Clinton at plus 10,000 I just that’s a big enough difference for me to just defer to thorb here the next two MC Meisner Carson young one thing I looked at here was off the te play scoring metrics things of that nature these aren’t just random picks like you know I ran the normal numbers I would run for any tournament and I wish I had spent enough time on this to like really diagnose matchups and things of that nature too other than the one I gave out I really didn’t and including finishing positions but I do like all three of these guys these numbers crashed like Carson young and MC Meisner yesterday afternoon around 2:30 were both 40 to1 and they went immediately down to 30 to1 in some places you Meisner is down to 28 to1 Carson Young down to 30 to1 so they’re definitely receiving some attention something to keep in mind if you’re looking for super long shots in this tournament I think Harry Hall in that 50 55 to one range uh is a decent look as well but I like these three quite a bit all right uh there we have it uh I’m gonna I mean Michael thorb oron’s due to win right now against this field not many EXC I mean he’s his talent has shown the last couple weeks all right speaking of talent where you have the number five player in the world wam Clark who I know likes his food gluten-free uh and you know is on the Olympic team which has angered some people and also made Patrick McDonald’s tweet go viral part of it uh but so Patrick is rewarding him with a plus 5700 uh long shot pick why uh so he has couple top 25 finishes here and a couple starts both of those tournaments he finished inside I believe he ranked fourth in both of them in terms of Strokes gained ball striking so when you’re thinking long shot you’re thinking someone is who’s going to be all or nothing Boomer buz type option that that has been Windam Clark’s 2024 to8 he has contended some weeks and he has been a complete afterthought other weeks and I think he found something with the iron play there at The Travelers Championship his best approach performance since TPC Saw Grass and so I’m going to dive back in Wind DC Windam Clark at 57 to1 to win the sadish open hey real quick real quick because I mentioned at the beginning of the show like balance lineups are are a way to just automatically be different because people are just going to grab guys in in the top row the top four if you will I’m not saying that’s a bad move but I think a balance lineup will be different and that balance lineup that might start with a havland or you know something in that range might might include minm Le Windham Clark’s only 8,100 I think that’s a really good look to include on your team again we’re looking for upside here we’re not looking for balance necessarily and Windham Clark offers the upside all right I’m going to give one contradiction to or one one re rebuttal to Patrick’s wind Clark if you look at the tournaments he’s popped in this year they were all limited Signature Events except for the Players Championship if you look at Pebble Beach uh Arnold Palmer uh I think that was those are two of them that come to mind and then obviously you know the players was not a a uh a limited field event but still it was a signature event when if it’s not a signature event I’m staying away from it that’s just that’s my take that’s crazy well Tech technically Players Championship not a signature event um it is and then and then I guess yeah I guess Technically when you win the US Open that’s a major championship and not a run the- Mill PJ Tour event so I’m picking up your thrown up okay just just a little bit I I mean if you hit wind at plus 5700 listen you own the longest shot on the board that we hit this year Jake nap at the Vidant Mexico open uh I don’t know if that will be topped though was real close with hisl with AE batia in San Antonio so you guys are way ahead of me uh with as far as those go seea you’re going back to back though you’re saying okay we’re going Davis back to back here I don’t see why not I mean what where’s does anybody know the ceiling for Davis Thompson because obviously none of us know we just know the last three tournaments he’s been absolutely on fire and we know he has a a pedigree from a talent standpoint that justifies what we saw the last three weeks so listen I don’t know if he’s going to be good on this course and and I don’t know if link style is his style I know his ball striking is great I know his approach and putter can be completely dialed in I know he can sometimes like round four be erratic off the tea which shouldn’t hurt him here and I know he’s 60 to one I mean all of those things make me think all right we might be undervaluing the guy that just beat everybody last week I understand there’s more talent in this field but the way Davis Thompson is playing the way he played round four which should have been the round where he buckled that should have been the round where we saw like pressure get to him the way he played that particular round he was so calm his demeanor was so good and he was hitting every single shot he needed to hit and then some so I don’t think the the stakes are too high here I think 60 to1 is way too high a number I think he should honestly at this point I think should be 42 to1 45 to1 I’ll take the 60 all right I’m going with as a man of the people uh the you know I am making my own parlay here on DK with ties included Tommy Fleetwood MMI at plus 852 that’s what I’m gonna do for everyone you know sometimes you take these pre-made parlays and when you don’t like something I said you know what I’m gonna make up the rules and I did the same thing for Liv but this other one is a pre-made parlay also in DK top 20 melroy min Le and Aaron Ry which I absolutely love at plus 700 so that is my normal unit size uh for both of those all right on to live they are in Spain at Liv valderama we have a few Spanish golfers in the field and wow we have picks from all three of you Patrick Brooks capka that’s where you’re going before a major I’m going with Brooks Kea I’ve already placed a wager on him for next week and so I figured it’s my it’s my duty to place a wager on him this week as well the ball striking Tia Green’s been awesome in major championships uh the putter has been lackluster he’s got the old gamer back in the bag I’m hoping that’ll kind of turn the tide a little bit and uh he finished third at valderama last year as well so not looking a lot into the Nashville start just because I know those guys had their fun on Broadway so uh Brooks kepka 22 to1 wins a ton on live I think we’ll give it a good chance now one guy who is looking into the Nashville start is Cen aad who’s picking TL Hatton who never wins of course they hadn’t won since 2021 if that I think it might have been 2020 across the world then of course he goes out and dominates in Nashville and you think he’s gonna go back to back yeah listen this is a look ahead spot for a lot of these big timers that are in this live event and there’s not that many in these Live Events Terrell Hatton I I think is actually a good look for next week as well I might have recommended him on one of the network shows like a month ago at 40 to1 I have no idea what his odds are are now but I get I bet they’re a little shorter I think Terrell Hat’s a good course fit I think you got to be strategic here but you know being good off the tea and and being somewhat accurate certainly GNA help and uh he can get hot with the short game get hot with the putter approach play probably needs a little bit of work but I think Hatton is is you know one of six or seven guys that can win this tournament uh legitimately win this tournament and uh I’ll take 11 to one you know I’m chalk Jason this week and I’m embarrassed by it and I apologize to all of you out there taking Rory mroy uh at uh you know at at the Scottish open and I’m taking John ROM to win his first live event in Spain his native Spain at plus 750 he has finished in the top 10 of all live events that he has completed uh with the exception of Houston which where he was hurt and then look at this top finish parley that I put together on DK John ROM top 10 Sergio top 10 David Pig top you know what they all have in common Patrick you know what all three of those guys have in common sing the national anthemy see I I I’m not that smart they’re all from Spain I couldn’t resist the event is in Spain so you know what we do we bet the players to do well in Spain David Pig also went to ASU so more reason not to like him uh for me same with John ROM but listen that Spain Arizona State connection is what it is but this week we play him and we try to win some money all right let’s uh let’s get on a few questions before we get going here uh talk about uh Tom Kim Patrick why are you fading why why are we collectively not betting Tom Kim again uh well it was DFS it’s different so it was more so I think I’m just gonna try to get a little bit different with some Victor with a little bit of Hadi and Tom Kim’s kind of low man on that totem pole uh see how about Colin morawa we haven’t talked about him he is I think the third favorite on the odds board and nobody’s mentioned it I think he’s fine I’d rather go with other guys the the putter looks like it’s coming around the ball striking is great and you know his accuracy isn’t going to benefit benefit him a ton I think that’s probably why he’s getting ignored a little bit I don’t think he should get ignored it’s just that I like other players a little bit better than I like Colin that that’s really what it comes down to uh Chad Moody says Matsuyama also getting overlooked I know Patrick you spoke to matsi Yama he I really wanted to take him as an outright because it drifted to like 30 to one I just I just couldn’t get there with Hideki I think he’s an interesting play obviously I have the matchup against Fitzpatrick don’t hate him as an right don’t hate him as a DFS play but uh yeah I’m not betting him out right all right before we get going you two I believe have articles up for or or will this week for the Open Championship next week on Sportsline if you uh need a promo code to read those DM me on Twitter I will get you the best rate even though we have some great uh we have a great special going on right now check out our join page just for the next couple days just throwing that out there all right Patrick your first clicks for the Open championship before we get to next week’s show you mentioned Brooks Kea anyone else that you have maybe put in an early bet on just yet yes so I found a 40 to one on Brooks capka that I dived in on and then I found a 65 to one on a former open Champion that’s all I will say you got to read the articles on sports line there’s your tease right there all right see who are your first clicks for next week well I mentioned Hatton he’s he’s all the way down to plus 3,000 from 40 to1 about a month ago uh other than that I mean Xander at 14 to1 does stick out to me a little bit because you just generally don’t see Xander’s number drop below 10 11 to1 so that would probably be I’m just guessing that would probably be my next click Brooks where I’m looking right now is 25 to one yeah it’s it’s probably going to be Xander Scotty’s plus 450 not interested in that you know I was actually looking at uh ludvig and Colin and then I looked at their history Colin won on debut at the Open Championship and has done nothing since and ludvig hasn’t been that great so this is a big week for me in terms of what are these guys going to do here also hain’s another guy I’d like to see what he does at this event but for me Rory mroy and another one that we talked about just recently tiell Hatton especially at that number that you mentioned now that he’s won will this be the start of winning in bunches boy I’ll tell you what great show today and the chat was absolutely on fire I’m sorry we didn’t get to everything that you guys mentioned but the side conversation that I saw was absolutely fantastic so for producer Jake who does a great job behind the scenes Patrick McDonald and CAD I am Eric Cohen as I always like to say let’s hit it big good luck