2024 Scottish Open Picks, Research, Guess The Odds | 2024 Golf Picks

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 Scottish Open Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
4:55 Course Flyover/Notes
11:06 Course Stats
14:16 Stat Model/Field
21:58 Guess The Odds

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a experience experience [Music] experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy Scottish open the Genesis Scottish open research picks and early preview we’re going to guess the odds towards the end of the show reminder to use code Mayo at Underdog fantasy to get a deposit bonus of up to2 50 bucks and as the back end of this audio podcast I’m going to throw on a show I did with Alex blickle about Royal trun we did it on a simulator I’m going to throw the video up on Mayo media Network as a bonus show it didn’t turn out great due to audio and internet problems but you know we did have a chat back and forth blickle plays the first nine holes of royal trune on a simulator we’re trying something different here uh with some of the content that we’re doing so as a bonus show I’m going to throw it out anyway you can choose to watch if you want to I I really enjoyed doing it I think there’s something there with that format we just need to perfect it and get the technology down but we were not able to do it this time around so you know give it a chance see if you like the format if we can try to perfect it so it’s not as laggy as it was as we did it this time through we’re going to have a bunch of Open Championship previews I’m going to have Jack humph and Tom Jacobs on to do the first look towards the end of the week and then it’s all the regular stuff the research show the betting show Best Bets everything cut sweat live next week so a ton going on for the Open Championship but we’re not going to overlook the Scottish open because this is a field now it’s 156 players and it’s not a signature event however this is essentially what Signature Events should look like in my opinion so it’s a combo event between the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour so there’s a lot of just random European players popping up in this field that maybe you’re not as familiar with if you don’t follow the DP World Tour but we don’t have Scotty in the field so that hurts a little bit now Klay is not playing he got injured at the JN before the John Deere decided to pull out he’s getting himself ready for the Open Championship so we are missing some big names from this field from the PGA Tour but most of them are playing and then you get this like Upper Crust from the DP World Tour and then a few other qualifiers and sponsors exemptions Tom Kim is playing on a sponsor exemption I don’t quite understand how that works uh considering he you know has multiple wins on the PG I think he’s ranked inside the top 20 in the world right now but according to the field list he got a sponsor’s exemption I’m glad that he is playing in this tournament obviously but it’s just weird to see that he took one of those spots from potentially someone else and then you get like the mid tier of everyone from the PGA Tour maybe we don’t need 156 players for Signature Events but having 120 like the old Heritage Memorial whatever it might be I think is better off uh for these events at least for viewership and I love the NBC coverage of both the Scottish open and the Open Championship which I will alternate between saying Open championship and British Open because I am not in Europe I am in North America we say British Open over here although I know the the open hashtag the open is the hashtag that you’re going to use and then Brits get very upset if you call it the British Open and not the Open Championship it doesn’t really matter all that much I’m probably going to title all the shows British Open because most of my viewers are in North America shout out to all of you around the world really appreciate you coming and leave those ratings and reviews especially in countries where you I mean basically if it’s not Canada or the us and you’re listening to this or watching this from one of those countries each rating and review that you give really helps us out on the charts especially like Australia and Ireland we’ve seen a big bump in Portugal uh whenever I talk about Johnny Vegas Venezuela just pops up on the list uh we we bring up Neiman Chile all of a sudden is doing really well for us so if you’re International and consuming the pat Mayo experience uh you can’t use code Mayo because Underdog is not available in those places but if you just left a rating and review on Apple podcast or Spotify it would be fantastic news for helping the discovery of the show and the big thing about the simulator show it’s a bonus show and that’s one of the good things that Underdog has provided for us so far since joining them and we’re hoping we can do a lot more we’re trying to Stage a 2v2 live Underdog tournament with me and cus versus like Jeff and Kenny or something like that we’re going to work on that maybe for next year uh to try to get the logistics down but yeah like I said with the simulator show we just kind of did a run through we know where we can improve on it and what we need to improve now so maybe in the future for future major championships or hell even tournaments maybe we can make it a Regular Show with blickle who’s really good at golf by the way he’s like I didn’t hit it well I hit it 3:30 it’s like thanks pal than thanks for really rubbing it in all of our faces with this but for the Scottish open this week this field is really good I I mean it’s fun that Scotty’s not here because you have Scotty be3 to one you’re like oh do I bet anyone besides Scotty but having a full field event with a real cut a course which is just genuinely fun to watch It’s So Different At The Renaissance Club so let’s take a look at the course right now the Renaissance Club is where they have played the five previous editions of the Scottish open dating back to when it was just a DP World Tour event and we would get a splattering of PGA Tour players who would go over because it’s the week before the Open Championship you get acclimated to the time zone you get acclimated to the turf you can be like call moraa and be like I can’t hit an iron off this Turf whatsoever and then no one bets you at the Open Championship and then you win the Open Championship but in 2019 burn vburger ended up being Victorious at minus 21 Aaron Ry you know hot fire Aaron Ry we’ll see how he ends up fairing at the John Deere classic playing in the final group going into Sunday he won at minus 11 it was very difficult that year I believe Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick I think Fleetwood lost in the playoff to Ryan Fitz ended up missing it by a stroke but the wind just started wreaking havoc on everyone and we saw that last year as well when Rory Won minwoo Lee won in 2021 at minus 18 He surged on Sunday posted a number and no one could catch him Xander won at minus 7 in 2022 and Rory won at minus 15 one clear of Robert McIntyre a year ago it would have been a better story if Bobby Mack ended up winning in his home country and made that amazing shot on 18 and then Rory followed it up with I think it was a 210 yard two iron on the final hole to ended up closing it out I had money on Hatton last year and he I believe duffed a shot from the middle of the Fairway like a wedge in and that was sort of the end of him so just to kind of recap a little bit from last year 2023 Rory’s best round came on Thursday where he finished three off the pace and well his scores got progressively worse as the week went along he was able to hang on Bobby Mack picked up four shots on him on Sunday but he still couldn’t catch up to Rory he ended up coming in in Elite Form with five straight top 10s a t7 at The Travelers was his most recent performance going into the Scottish open and Tom Kim who finished in sixth along with Tommy Fleetwood are the only two players to finish in the top 10 each of the past two years at the Scottish open Kim finished a solo third in 2022 while Fleetwood finished top four those are the two years that it’s been a co-sanctioned event between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour the first year it was Xander at minus 7 beat Kirk kyama by one stroke he was 11 back after Thursday but he shot a 65 on Friday 66 on Saturday both the best rounds of the day to get him in he entered in Elite Form with five straight top 20 finishes and he won The Travelers previous to that so those were the two of the PGA players predominantly playing in this field in 2021 minwoo beat dietre and Fitzpatrick in a playoff he had one top 20 finish on the season prior to winning which actually happened to be the week before at the Irish open he was t18 that week then ryy won atus 11 as I mentioned and weisberger beat Benjamin Herbert at minus 22 and yes it was Tommy Fleetwood who Aaron Ry beat so Tommy Fleetwood has actually played really well at this course and that’s going to be impactful in terms of his odds this week uh he’ll I mean he’s always boosted up on the betting board but he’ll be even more boosted up this week based on good form and excellent course history at the Renaissance club and to take a look back last year obviously it was played at Royal Liverpool the Open Championship and Brian Haron ended up winning but just to take a look at the top 10 last year everyone who finished inside the top 10 made the cut at the Open Championship Rory ended up coming T6 Bobby Mack was t71 lingor who was third last year qualified into the Open Championship based on his performance came t68 Sheffer came t23 who was third a year ago Benny Anne was t23 and so was Nikolai hoard t23 they all tied for um yeah they were all T3 or T6 at the Scottish end up coming t23 at the open hat Pon was T20 Poston was t41 fleet was Fleetwood was top 10 and Tom Kim was in that Log Jam in second place at the Open Championship going in overall this is a 7237 yard course Fescue greens and obviously there’s a ton of Fescue just lingering off the Fairway and guys last year were able to draw pretty good lies out of it but you can’t really control spin out of it that well it’s a par 70 there are five par 3es on the course the average distance is 187 yards four of the holes on the course on a double or Worse rate of 2% or more and they’re all the front nine power fours uh and the average distance on the power fours all 10 of them is 454 yards there are three power fivs on the course with the average distance being 590 yards and to take a little bit of a closer look at those one of them plays right at 600 they’re all in that 575 to 600 range the eagle rate is all sub 2% on them and the birdie rate is 32% 32% and 42% uh that would be on the third hole the 600 it’s funny that the 600 yard power five the longest one ends up playing the easiest hole on the course uh Rory took full advantage of the longest one playing number three at five under power he made Eagle in round one there last season and if we’re looking for a draftking streak this week the vast majority of Birdie streaks will come on the back nine is it opens with seven straight holes that play easier than Co average the problem when mining for streaks is that both of the nines end with really difficult holes the five toughest holes on the property kind of wrap around everything and we take a closer look into how the layout goes you have number two is the third most difficult on the course number 18 is the most difficult and seven eight and N are sixth second and fourth all of them playing overpar so there’s no real Advantage depending on on which side of the draw that you end up getting on let’s jump over to Fantasy National right now and take a look at some of the accuracy and Green’s regulation stats there’s not a ton of data from the Renaissance but I believe they will have shotlink this time around which is you know helpful when trying to mine some research with everything you see driving accuracy is much lower here uh than your standard PGA Tour event a lot of that has to do with two years ago when it played supremely difficult although Gus got up to 40 mph in the fourth round a year ago 48% is the driving accuracy greens regulation around 60% scrambling a little bit lower than it normally is here so if you can hit your greens regulation you’re going to be pretty good because the three putts per round is a little bit lower than you would expect but you can really chop off a lot of this course with just bombing it out there and if you can hit the fairways it’s going to roll for ages if you can draw some luck in the Fescue you’re going to be good to go you can see that the average driving distance is about 10 yards higher than it is at your standard PGA Tour event and taking a more in-depth look at the field it’s a really good field as I mentioned before no Scotty Sheffer but we’re going to get Rory and Colin Xander who’s won this event before ludvig Victor Tommy Hideki Fitz Tom Kim the gala Thomas sunj Clark and then you got your splattering of Euro guys and even that mid tier of like Connor and Baden Hout you know Baden Hout has wins on the DP World Tour so maybe he is someone to give more of a shout to this week although we have seen the two years of this tournament that the PGA Tour guys have really I mean they are the cream of the crop in terms of the world the cream Rises to the top brother and we’ve seen that throughout the course of the years Bobby Mack was sort of the outlier last year but you know he has a win on the PGA tour already this time around Grant Forest came 11th last year so and then Yan Ferguson who’s playing really well in Munich this week Ryan Fox so you had a like a splattering of some of these topend Euro guys not even top end Euro guys just some of the euro guys who are more familiar with Lynx golf uh Jordan L Smith was another one I mean Jordan Smith you can just call him but he was playing much better golf at this time last year than he is going into it this year but then you see your Ben Griffins and Tom hogies and I mean home is a elite player but Lee Hodges was another one JT Poston and Nick Taylor were all players who ended up getting up there and then you had like your mid- tier guys inside the top 25 langa skew thorbjorn yanek Paul so don’t be afraid to take a few Euros you would think on DraftKings and depending on what the odds are this time around that they might present the better value going into this season so maybe on Wednesday’s show because I don’t believe there’s a DP World Tour picks and bet show because sky is in his RV Across America right now that I’ll try to take a more in-depth look at some of the European players and that’s what we’re going to be doing on the first look show with Jack and Tom is taking a look at some of these under the radar players that maybe you just don’t know a ton about and going back to the year before you see that dietry and Rasmus hoard ended up inside the top 10 and European players but mainly again you know Doug gim Baden hat wam Clark Jordan Smith played pretty well again he’s come inside the top 25 each of the past two years valami having a pretty decent week at the John Deere we’ve seen him pop up a few times he’s made the cut each of the past two years he has wins on the European tour so some of these guys that maybe are not normally on your radar could get a little bit of a boost this week uh we try to take a look at the modeling for the week uh it’s tough to do because obviously different surface lead to different things uh and you time zone changes a completely different style of course and you’re really going to have to keep up Tod dat on how the weather is going to impact things who were some of the better wind players and obviously you can just scroll down the left side of fantasy National take a look at super windy conditions and see how that goes you could even sort by open championships uh if you want although those are different tests they’re not always in Scotland uh and sometimes you’re going to get different stats mixed in because a non- windy Open championship plays a little bit different than a windy water log type event but just overall taking a look at the past 12 rounds in my Strokes game model which I usually have as my default setting which you can see on the screen right now really Waits you know total approach around the green off the tea I don’t know why around the green is so high as a part of this as opposed to off the tea but we’ll do that um and rejig it just a little bit but keep Approach at 32% and see who the best players are it’s Rory it’s Colin Aaron Ry rates out really well I he’s going to have to be a PO pick this week with a second place finish in Detroit he might win John Deere but probably at least come inside the top 10 returning to Europe where he’s won returning to Britain or the British Isles where he has won before and obviously he’s won at this course at the Scottish open in the past so maybe he can and seems like the putter is starting to come along a little bit Davis Thompson who’s in the lead at the John Deere rates in number four it’s funny because you know this doesn’t include any of the John Deere stats right now and he still rates out forth probably should have bet him didn’t like his odds know fineberg on him and I know there’s a ton of people on him this week so if uh my guys are kind of out of it so I’m rooting for Davis Thomas Davis Tom Davis Thompson to come through for people this week and maybe he can cash an outright for some people built some good Mo before we head overseas for some of the golf events there’s also an event at the barbasol this week as well for the Lesser tier players the guys that didn’t qualify for this I’m not going to really be walking through that but maybe Jeff and I will have some bets on Monday for the barbasol Xander Hideki minwoo moves playing a little bit better again returning to a place where he has won in the past Connor’s inside the top 10 so was Victor then you got Tommy Keith Tom Kim Damon Harmon Baden Hout hogi Jordan Smith still rates out pretty well in terms of the only PGA stats that we can see but that’s not a you know schmorgus Board of stats that we’re looking here he made the cut at the PGA Championship he made the cut at the open last year he was 12th at the Scottish and then he was 20th at the US Open not quite sure how he is playing right now on the DP World Tour but we can check that out by going to Jordan Smith official world golf rankings if I can official world golf rankings and not try to make that look like Iowa and type in to see how Jordan Smith is doing how is Jordan Smith doing coming into this event uh he missed the cut in Italy so not great he has no top 20s since he was second in Africa uh in South Africa at what the middle of March the end of February so it hasn’t been a good run for Jordan Smith but maybe getting back in these link style courses exactly what he needs Thomas sunjay Bobby Mac are all up there in The Strokes gain model I need to see if I have a Scottish open one I I always try to do this one more by feel and we have seen that the guys who played The Travelers pretty well have done well here although it was closer I believe last season in proximity where’s Scottish do I have a Scottish open feel like I should but I don’t short wedges simple US Open St Andrews maybe it’s under Genesis Scottish open it is not so I think we’re just going to try to take a look at who is playing really good golf coming in because that has been a pretty good predictor of who is going to come up near the top of this tournament and maybe try to take a look at uh some of the guys some of the names that we saw from last year we’ll jump to maybe they had it last year for shot link I’m really thought there was shotlink for this tournament but no there wasn’t last year and there wasn’t the year before that but you know good players end up doing pretty well that’s sort of what we’re seeing at the Scottish open over time and let’s see you know we have a UK player UK player Sheffer obviously he’s going to be up there a ton Ben an has won at Wentworth in the past Hatton has played pretty well no Shane Lowry in this field although he was is there Shane Lowry in this field I feel like there should be Shane Lowry in this field no he’s not only Justin low is in this field so maybe Shane Lowry maybe he decided to play I don’t know what the hell he’s doing maybe he’s saving it for the Irish open who knows what’s going on with Shane Lowry right now but as we kind of take a little bit of a deeper dive into some of the field try to pick off some like minwoo Connors and Aaron Ry who are raiding out near the top and we might need to see how they’re doing man just the top 20s for Aaron Ry or is this yeah that is Aaron Ry he’s gonna have another top 20 this week he’s been like Mr top 20 over the past month and that includes the US Open where he ended up coming in 19th just he green he’s been absolutely lights out and he’s actually making putts for the first first time in ages uh I guess he went on that nice little run at Valero and Houston to close the Texas swing of things but if he can actually putt well we know that the irons are good we know he’s familiar with the surface if his odds aren’t bad you might just have to jump on if it’s like 50 to one as an opener I guess if he wins John Deere comes in second he might open at like 35 because they don’t want to take on that liability knowing that he’s going to be a very popular bet take a look at Cory Connor he has had some decent putting weeks he’s had some terrible putting weeks as per usual with him but when he putts well he tends to putt okay we’ll see how he’s done he’s played the Scottish twice made the cut twice obviously finished inside the top 20 last year this feels like it should be a good tournament for him um although the approach play at The Travelers was not great his around the green has started to improve vastly we’ll see if that’s pure luck or if it’s something that he’s actually made an adjustment to going forward minwu we know that he plays lyx golf really well he’s just playing good golf right now and even seeing his irons right around a a slightly above average is such a flip from what we’ve seen from him over the past year where he was just basically hitting his his iron play was so bad he was hitting himself out of tournaments obviously he’s always going to gain off the tea uh sometimes he can show up with an amazing short game and a really hot putter but when you’re not hitting your IR irons well you need to have that great putting week which he just wasn’t doing but he has seemingly turned that around the approach play has been Break Even if you can be slightly above average again he’s going to be a contender here it’s all about we we talk a little bit about the what do we do with Rory uh or what do we do with Scotty on a week- toe basis when he comes in at 3 to one Rory is kind of the guy at this tournament especially being the defending champion and listen yes he didn’t win the US Open by missing those two short putts but he is playing fantastic golf coming in just taking a look at his results he had a bit of a lag earlier on in the season but he was still coming inside the top 25 basically every single week and then since the Heritage a win he got the team win he’s come inside the top 15 of both the Maj fourth at the RBC Canadian open he feels more beatable obviously than Scotty does who no one seems to be beating right now but you just want to pump on Rory and hopefully he defends his crown in Scotland or do you take a shot a little bit down the board and try to Pepper this like 20 to 50 range that’s probably the route that I’m going to take because I don’t normally go to the very top of the board in that sense but it’s an interesting conundrum that you’re going to end up with this week depending on where the odds shake out and I would guess that Rory comes up near the top of the board which brings us to guess the odds for the Scottish open I just mentioned Rory I think that he comes in as the betting favorite at 6 to1 with Xander slightly behind him at 8 to1 they could both be seven they could be four and six depending on how the odds shake out but I do think that there’s a few guys in the middle tier that will get I don’t want to say overrated but their odds will be shorter than they normally are because of the course history and the location that we’re at going back to overseas more European players b basically Ry and Bobby Mack are the two that I’m really thinking of here after that I have another tier of three players in the teens I have ludvig at 12 to1 Colin and Vic both at 14 to1 don’t really like that tier of players it’s the next tier down depending on where these guys get listed I have Tommy and Hideki both at 22 to1 there is a chance that Tommy opens at like 18 to1 because people will be lining up to bet him this week and you we’re not in America therefore Tommy can win people buy into that narrative that he can just do that and all of a sudden he’ll be at the top of people’s betting cards and that’s where will start I do think that Hideki will fall out and be around 22 to1 and maybe fluctuate up or down depending on the interest in him this week Fitz and Tom Kim I have it 28 to1 but again they could open a little bit lower than that at 25 or 22 Tom Kim obviously I mentioned he’s one of the two players each of the past two seasons who’s come inside the top 10 and then you have Fitz who’s lost in a playoff here before and just you know he gets boosted up anytime that we go over to Europe after that tier I have the gala at 30 JT sunjay at 35 Harmon at 40 Windam Clark at 45 and then you have Bobby Mack and Ry I’m going to guess 40 for each of them they could open at 50 they could open at 35 but that’s the range that I’m looking at for those guys coming into it this week this really feels like a more feel week for me and you know I got to get off the schneide here because Sun J just had a disastrous Saturday at the John Deere so that’s going to do it for the pat Mayo experience for the Scottish open we’re going to have a tremendous amount of coverage on this on Mayo media Network so sub to that all week long and then directly into Open Championship coverage which I’m pretty excited for uh being the year’s final major this is kind of like Get Back To Go time for golf with these two weeks after a bit of a l following the US Open so I’m pretty excited I hope you’re excited too fantasy national.com Mayo gets you 20% off code Mayo at Underdog fantasy and check out that Open Championship show I did with blickle it’s on the back end of the audio podcast and will be a separate video up on Mayo media Network all right thank you all for watching I’m Pat Mayo I’ll see you next time may experience experience