MLB DFS Picks Today 7/6/24: DraftKings & FanDuel Baseball Lineups | Live Before Lock

MLB DFS picks today with EMac and Matthew Belman on Live Before Lock. The guys go over all of the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MLB lineups, break down the best stacks, starting pitchers and give home run predictions.

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all right stochastic here we go it’s your old pal emac coming to you on a Saturday afternoon as we get ready for a little MLB action here post holiday action but still the holiday weekend a nice little eight gamer here going on in the afternoon we’ve got a four gamer tonight should be a good one a lot of baseball last night exciting if you stayed up late you got to see an amazing comeback there both by Arizona and then uh San Diego said hold our beers because we’re going to knock you out with a walk-off here courtesy of Manny Machado you add Eric linquist with the terrific call of plus 156 on the money line uh taking the Colorado Rockies who managed to not only Sur VI against Cole Reagans they ended up winning 4-2 with some late uh late inning runs not quite as dramatic there as uh San Diego it was it was a pretty good one and then Tanner byby almost made me lose my strikeout wager I said go under uh six and a half he ended up with six Matt he had had uh seven or more I think in in eight of nine games or something along that those ranges uh he gave up three early runs to the Giants and I thought oh I got this one in the bag looked at the box score and I’m like through three Innings that son of a [ __ ] has five strikeouts already oh my God it was it was just all over the place yesterday it certainly was I unfortunately or fortunately depending on how you want to look at it uh was asleep for those late comebacks so didn’t see those but read about them in the morning uh I played a bunch of Kansas City so it’s dead anyways Kors has been a disappointment for a while now it’s it has been I was going to start talking about some conspiracy theories with potentially the humidor uh being ramped up a little bit because it just it seems it seems a little suspect these days uh the Chicago wind games haven’t really been occurring uh it seems like well we know offense is down around the league especially with home runs uh because the the baseball little bit softer than it was nothing is going to hit that bouncy season what was it four or five seasons ago but uh it’s it just seems seems like they’re playing around with the ball again and we need to adjust appropriately so uh we want to keep all of that in mind but today we got another good one here so uh What uh what are you thinking here Let’s do let’s do our usuge we’ll go the the the early afternoon slate we’ll clear that up we’ll hit the four game featured slate we’ll talk about some fun stuff uh in between and then we will uh we will answer questions give you some home run calls all the fine the Finer Things in life here uh take I’m gonna hand this over to you uh pitchers here we’ve got uh several choices on the early action here uh we’ve got some some pitchers to Target we’ve got some pitchers to Target against take it from the top M the the world is your oyster yeah so I think starting at the top it’s got to start with Garrick crochet who has just been phenomenal this season gets you know one of the best if not the best matchups in baseball going into Miami to face the Marlin so gets an amazing ballpark upgrade here great spot on paper for kocher I think he looks like the clear number one option he’s expensive uh but I don’t think there’s anyone really in his like range that’s worth pivoting to I think it’s about whether you want to play them with prochet or kind of just get off the expensive pitchers and general is that how you see it it it is and that’s and that’s sort of how I wrote it up in in the uh free Spotlight pitchers top Stacks article because you know I usually stay away from the super duper amazing pitchers and just give mention like yeah you should probably play this guy today it’s like hey yeah play play K’s field I I can only break that down so many ways you don’t need to hear that from me so we look at other paths but with crochet the key things I wanted to I thought were interesting to call out were as you mentioned a phenomenal matchup here Miami kind of middle of the road with strikeouts but they are the uh second uh basically bottom two team in total basis home runs and runs scored which are kind of the metrics we look at uh just the raw metrics we want to look at from a DFS perspective so that means that they’re not going to be overly Fierce uh they even though they’re middle of the road with home runs crochet leads the league with home runs per nine I think it’s around 125 per nine on the season if we look at um his six starts in June uh he has a 1. one9 par me a 1 191 ra a09 two Whip and 13.4 strikeouts per inning just one home run allowed uh the key things you want to know is he has about a 30% strikeout rate which is pretty awesome uh ground ball rat’s the only real knock against him that’s only around 30% but I think we’re splitting hars at this point uh and then he gets it all done with around 95 or so pitches so they’re they’re not gonna limit his Innings at this point at least not today they’re probably not going to let him go above a 100 pitches but he’s also in play as one of the best trade chips that’s available for the white sock so this is yet another perfect situation here similar to almost all of June where he can go out get another pristine start and just increase and or and or hold his value of being yeah we’re going to need a couple good prospects and maybe a start a back of the rotation guy or a reliever or a starting or a fourth outfielder if you want this guy so he he could be shaping up to to bring in a hall and he could be a huge difference maker for whoever gets him at the deadline um especially if they grab him a little before that um you know like right after the All-Star break so he is the clear number one guy but then the rest of the the options well there’s there’s plenty you’ve got Andrew Heeney and Taj Bradley squaring off in Texas you’ve got hunter green going against the Motor City kites they were the key to me breaking even last night had a good night on Yahoo uh basically lost enough to make it a break even night by the time I got done with DraftKings but uh the Motor City kites a little bit tougher match up for them against hunter green than it was against Carson Spears yesterday you’ve got uh discount Dandy Cade pop poic uh going in Oakland uh he’s with the Baltimore with the Batters of Birdland behind him he gets to take on the Athletics options those are probably your next uh wave of pitchers how do you want to parse those guys out yeah I agree I think it’s crochet and then that next group you talked about ER green has been very good this year has in a bit of a rough spell right now but obviously he’s in a very good spot at home against Detroit uh you know not a great ballpark for or not a great ballpark for pitching but great match up on paper against the Tigers TOS Bradley who’s been fantastic outside of one start really really really high strikeout upside as we saw in his last start I think he’s probably getting a little bit too much love him and green but I do think that they’re pretty clearly the next two guys um you know Mackenzie core is more expensive than them and doesn’t project quite as well you know not that much worse of a spot but I’d rather get to Green or Bradley than Gore I’m with you on Heeney uh probably just a too cheap of a price tag at 6,900 I don’t love him here I never do but if you need a cheap pitcher I think you could definitely do worse than Heeney uh and then a guy I’m looking at that’s like right above he’s price tag is Yanni Torinos um I don’t think he’s anything special but same ballpark as crochet same matchup basically against the white socks he’s only 7,300 his underlying numbers look pretty good he was a competent starter in the past I know his last stretch with Tampa wasn’t good but he was solid before that and he’s just in a good spot at home against the white socks great pitcher ballpark cheap price tag so he’s defin in play for me and then the other guy I’ll mention in there is Kade Povich also cheap 7200 against Oakland he’s been good his underlying number suggests he’s even better than that so yeah I think that’s kind of the the group I’m looking at personally yeah I saw uh chinos there and I’m like oh dear God are we gonna have to talk about him because this is the matchup where we dust things off and and we take a stand on the other side as opposed to targeting targeting against him um who who is it Muno is is he do up in the in the order here is he going to get a crack at the white sock tomorrow I don’t know he PCH yesterday I think oh did he go yesterday okay yeah um it was this is just it’s one of those where every now and then you get that matchup where you’re like wait two teams that we pick on are going against each other what does this mean it means we’re gonna talk about their pitchers for once oh wow MLB DFS it makes PR strange bed fellows but um those are are the key things here before we get too much further into this I want to mention that we are sponsored by better today that is betr they are a prop pick them site out there in available in Most states key things that you need to know one if you come in with the promo code stochastic one that is stochastic in the number one they will give you a $500 deposit match up to $500 with your first deposit that means if you put in 20 they give you 20 you put in 200 they give you 200 you put in 500 well they’re G to give you 500 that makes for $1,000 that’s one hell of a deal here that’s like winning your own little mini gpp well worth it all you got to do is present your credit card or other payment method to them and you are going to secure that $500 deposit match they have um uh MLB going on right now quite a few other uh of the secondary Sports and we’re right around the corner here from NFL starting up again uh it’s it’s going to be a good one a lot of Wimbleton Wagers out there uh because we are in the middle of of one the grand slams you’ve got golf uh Wagers as well so it is a lot of fun you can build out your prop cards to get up to a 100x pout pretty pretty good deal you are going against those lines you’re not going against the apex predators like you have to do a lot of times on DFS but uh definitely check that out and reminder if you or somebody you know has a gambling issue please call or text 1800 Gambler I will drop the landing page into chat here just so you guys can see all of the various um auta Mons and other information all right uh let’s do one more pass here through uh pitching it does look like Alex fidau is GNA be up for uh um Detroit I couldn’t it seemed like it was going to be potentially fedo they had a couple other pitchers that haven’t gone uh for a few days I thought Matt Manning might make a an appearance here there it was just a lot of confusion this morning so I just said Detroit righties uh was kind of where I thought they were going to go so we don’t want any part of that you talked about hunter green uh that’s a good one how do you feel about a couple lefties squaring off here your Logan Allen versus uh Kyle Harrison here any interest uh in whatever’s whatever’s going down in Cleveland no no interest in uh either pitcher there for me um I just think you can do better uh I don’t think these guys are the worst pitchers in the world but someone playing minimal lineups I’m not going to get to either of them the only thing I think they have going for them is their cheap price tag but I don’t like the match up for Harrison obviously and then Allen hasn’t been good and I much prefer San Fran against lefties so no thanks for me all right David Peterson maybe you could close your eyes just a little bit and consider him against Texas don’t really want to get uh go go with um excuse me bayy falter I said Texas I’m in Pittsburgh there uh Texas style homeworks homeworks fireworks last night as in they ran out of fireworks in Pittsburg uh franchise recorded seven home runs yesterday in a 14-2 game including two players with two home runs each of them got a grand slam on top of that that was another one I kind of missed out on did a lot of box score reading this morning uh since I went to bed early it was a lot like uh the olden days where uh we didn’t have the internet and you had to wait for this thing every morning called a newspaper to arrive and because I was on the west coast back then a lot of times we wouldn’t see uh our own West Coast results until the following day it would be a whole day later yes kids yes we had to crank our cars they had little hand cranks in front of them before we could get started man was not yet on the moon heck the wri brothers hadn’t even really gotten around to doing their thing yet so that was what it was like way back in the day before the internet at least that’s what it feels like now uh last person I want to call out by name actually there’s two of them one Emerson Hancock no just he doesn’t have enough strikeouts he’s another one of the Mariners decent pitching prospects I think he’s perfectly fine as a major league baseball pitcher not for our DFS World um but that is someone I almost picked with the 10th round of my Minor League Draft I’m in this league with t MCB it’s called Tino there is no off season we have three different drafts five different class classifications of player contract types the rule pages are seven pages long single spaced Matt this is out of control but we were looking at the they were some of the other guys were drafting people still in the kbo and the Japanese league and in college not yet declaring for the upcoming MLB draft it’s that deep of the league it’s pretty it’s pretty out there but we was like look do I really need everon Hancock I looked at those numbers I’m like no not even not even worth just having merer on my team to have him uh not enough strikeouts but Mr strikeout himself Lance Lynn uh facilitated a lot of home runs last year is this the kind of mediocre matchup we can uh or going against a mediocre offense we can consider him for uh it looks like the Washington Nationals are going to bounce nick senzel uh to waivers if that probably means they’re going to try to trade him for bag of baseballs to a contender but the Nationals offense not overly exciting after their first two or three hitters um we’ve seen uh just a lot of failure on on their their uh their part there to get uh any semblance of offense outside of CJ Abrams um uh Lance Thomas and uh Luis Garcia Garcia really only breaking out this year against righties he doesn’t even play against lefties that is the state of the Nationals do you go to Lance slam as our last option I don’t know think I like the Nationals more than you do uh Winker having a good year James Wood is up um yeah you always talk trash about this National line Nationals lineup but I think it’s a little bit better than you do I don’t know what you have against it they’re not great but I would say they’re comparable to Lance Lynn so just like Lance Lynn is fine in my eyes I don’t think he stands out either way I think the Nationals look pretty good today and our top stack tools bear that out so yeah I mean I’m not saying this offense is great but they’re not bad and I think Lynn is due for some negative regression he’s pitching well right now and his overall season numbers aren’t bad but his underlying numbers are significantly worse so I think that’s worth monitoring if nothing else yeah je Jesse Winker uh he of the uh now suddenly stealing bases had a great uh Fourth of July outfit major props for that did you see him sort of dressed up in the in the Uncle Sam uh type uh suit there that was pretty good I didn’t see it they did a Nationals almost always host a Fourth of July game it’s usually an 1105 start uh to get everybody into the City and then out of the city before all the other festivities happened there uh in the capital so he was he was uh looking pretty good uh pretty festive there uh in The Dugout um so that was kind of interesting yeah they’re not the worst but the back of the lineup is just it’s it’s not even replacement level today it’s uh wanz Trey limam and uh what Jake young so not overly exciting uh Joey manessis it’s just not very good uh kebert Ruiz good catcher vaness is in the miners now oh did they find yeah that may be the last we see of him it was a great run it was a fun Story coming up as a 30-year old rookie after toiling away crash Davis style there uh down in the miners but uh we may not be seeing him anymore so could be lots of the youngsters here uh for the rest of the season and we’re only at about the halfway mark uh of the Season all right let’s use the halfway mark of this slate to flip over to the offenses who do you like at the top of the top Stacks tool for our afternoon action there’s a bunch of stacks that look good um I think that because of the kind of weak pitching options we have a lot of the stacks are in play for me and the Mets look very good they’re the number one stack on the board and they’re coming in with some leverage so there’s a lot to like there Baltimore is always in play and today is no exception um you know they’re expensive up top they’ve got guys that that can make it work and there isn’t crazy expensive pitching at side of crochet so I think it’s pretty easy to get basically whoever you want ciny looks pretty good against Bo brisy or fedo or whoever thrown out there it’s not going to be anyone good so I don’t excuse me love Bullpen games but could obviously be facing a better Bullpen than the Tigers so I think the reds are in play and then a couple others I’m looking at that I’m playing that I’m considering playing personally is Washington who we just talked about and Seattle um you know neither team I expect to get a lot of love I would presume Washington gets more love just because they’re a little bit cheap cheaper Seattle’s kind of expensive which makes it trickier to roster them but yario Rodriguez is not very good Houston was really popular against him on the last slate that he was on it was a small slate but Houston was Uber Choy that day people have been wanting to pick on him and now you know they’re kind of backing off because it’s such a big slate Seattle has struggled all year offensively but we know they’re talented and they’ve gotten it going a little bit recently I’m not sure who I like more Washington or Seattle here guide me if I had to do it I would go with Washington uh DC not Seattle Washington though uh I have lived in both places root for both teams still uh it is for me it’s going to be about the weather it’s uh clearly more more hot and humid in DC I think it’s still going to be close to 80 around uh first pitch here for Seattle so that’s on the warmer side of things um but still T-Mobile Park is is one of the uh better pitching parks in the league here so that would give me the the slightest of of edges to go with the Nationals when we look at washingt uh when we look at the Mariners we’ll go by team names make it a little easier for those here watching along uh when we go with the Mariners just the the offense is there are no easy outs in the offense but the uh unless uh Rodriguez get uh gets uh his mean he’s getting better but unless he gets back to last year’s form there’s no overly daunting bats either so you don’t it’s harder to pinpoint where the production is going to come from at least with the Nationals you can kind of ear Market down to it’s probably going to be these four guys that are pretty adjacent to each other in the lineup when you get to the Mariners you know it could be depending on if they’re going against the lefty or the righty you know the likes of it’s Dominican Zone it’s more in the lineup today you Cal Ry is always going to be there um Luke rayley uh is going to be there against Ry so it’s it’s it’s more of a a mix and match situation I’d still Le towards Washington but I like that you’re talking about my favorite teams perhaps I’ve come down a little hard on them uh this year but n or the well both teams I think are in the bottom five for run scores but uh um the Mariners are are sliding back they could end up in the bottom three if they’re not careful here they had clawed their way up for a bit but then slid back it’s their pitching that is just keeping them uh near the top of the um Al West but their lead is starting to uh get chipped Away by a few they’re falling hard yeah yeah um so you you kind of mentioned Bo briski it’s like if I look at depending on which page I go to on which site there’s a different Detroit picture across every I’m surprised that we’re still 40 minutes away that and and we we don’t have the official official listed picture not not that it really matters um so I just dropped the link to the spotlight pctures top stack article uh it’s free every day uh for MLB so I wrote up the the Reds and I said here my lead paragraph is the expectation is Detroit will be going with some sort of Bullpen game with rties Matt Manning Alex uh Foo and Bo brisy likely to see action along with Lefty Tyler Holton uh Detroit saw three relievers play on Friday but that was the only action that Trio had seen in the last four days so they’re available as well so it’s it’s just going to be but the thing is that’s kind of the talent level of most of them is and they’re not in a great ballpark here uh fun things that we want to point out for Cincinnati is la de la Cruz leads the league by 15 steals he already has 43 he has 37 extra base hits so uh he is pretty awesome the whole team or the team as a whole also leads the league in stolen bases um I didn’t I don’t have their lineup in front of me but they’ve got four guys with double digits you got Spencer steer at 13 Jake fley at 12 Fairchild and will Benson coming in with 11 a piece and then uh veteran himr candelario didn’t want to miss out on the fun he stole one last night I think that is seven or eight for him uh on the season here he’s doing pretty well as far as total bases go and being the switch hitter uh he is able to have the pluton advantage throughout the game he is batting third today there uh Benson and Fairchild they’re down at the bottom of the order so not a ton of interest in them but you kind of line up with the top four here with h Jonathan India um uh being added into to uh De La Cruz candelario and spear as a solid core 4 all adjacent to each other in lineup which gets that maximum Synergy here so they were kind of my favorite stack because it covers a variety of positions then it allows you to say I’m gonna spend up with crochet and do something different with my SP2 and then get this stack or I’m now going to spend up on this stack and then I’m going to back off from Crusade go with too cheap uh to cheap uh pitch or cheap or pitchers here be a little more cost conscious so I likeed how the Reds sort of aligned with the ability to get extra base hits they’re clearly they got the half the team half the lineup has the green light to go um here and pick their spots for stolen bases so that’s always helpful and then um nothing scary with regards to the Detroit pitchers I think we had them when I wrote this up they were like the the Reds were like the fifth or sixth um uh most stacked to lead amongst our 16 teams so they weren’t near the top by any stretch but they allow you to be the foundation of a bunch of different ways um to go for this so sometimes we’ll see teams like that in that particular situation where I can knock out the infield with uh indiia second base D Cruz at Short Stop candelario Third Base burn an outfield spotless steer and then I got uh you know I can get pick up two more outfielders and and a first baseman uh for another stack see what I like with my catcher etc etc so I like them as a stack um as you continue down the list uh here Matt um let’s focus in a little bit uh again on uh I I’m I don’t think I’m surprised that the Mets are basically number one Baltimore right there with them Baltimore leads the league in total bases and home runs uh they’re going against Luis Medina uh bayy falter is going to be scoring off against the Mets those two teams combined have almost a 25% chance of being the the top scorer of top scoring stack of the Slate here uh I see that Cincinnati’s climbed up the charts a little bit um uh here here um how are you feeling about Baltimore um they didn’t quite do what we wanted to see last night uh they were okay if I remember correctly what did they went like 32 or 43 uh it was it was the guys we wanted to get the hits and and the RB they just didn’t do it via home runs yeah they kind of disappointed last night um I think they won three to two as mentioned they’re always in play for me uh Medina is nothing special at all he’s more bad than good and Baltimore is very good I always prefer Oakland during the day as opposed to at night now still not as good of at hitting his environment as many other spots today are but most other spots today don’t have a team as good as Baltimore the other thing I love about Baltimore is they hit home runs so when they go off they do what DK what DK rewards that said it’s hard to hit home runs in Oakland so all in all I think they’re right up top as far as top Stacks goes today I don’t think they’re overwhelmingly number one because of the ballpark but if you had them number one over a team like Cincinnati or the metsa wouldn’t fault you at all either all right I got a got a shout out May Cula here for for chunk the deuce you are correct candelario has just four stolen bases he did get one last night these tired old eyes look at ESPN which which is sorted by at bats glanced over across this long page and I saw the eight that should really be attributed to Jonathan India so my bad there but point being he actually is stealing bases because he didn’t do a lot of that when he’s with the Nationals uh he has what 3 uh three uh combined extra base hits candelario that is so uh yeah fun fun seeing him successful I like liked him a lot with Detroit uh over the years so the the switch hitting and being um a versatile player helps see him in the lineup uh quite frequently here in his age 30 season uh any else here as we continue down the top Stacks to uh God it Toronto’s fourth do you like anybody from Toronto these days the thing about Hancock is he’s kind of reverse spitzy so he stinks against righties and Toronto’s got a ton of righties so I actually see that one and I don’t think they’re going to be overly popular like yeah 7% owned right in line with their top stack percentage but you know I think all the other teams like Cincy Baltimore and the Mets are clearly more popular than them so yeah I like Toronto here if nothing else pieces of Toronto Vlad Springer bashet The Usual Suspects yeah bashet is rivaling um uh Julio Rodriguez when it comes to forgetting how to hit for power uh bashet has been like they sat him against a lefty the other day that’s how bad gave an injury destination but that’s how bad he’s been uh but he’s not that which is this has been a rough year Spencer Horowitz has been a nice story um vlat daddy is uh still still not exactly uh okay last he wasn’t great against lefties had a little bit better against same-handed he’s picking it up this year he’s just been on a heater himself um but it then now we’re looking at Danny Janson as the third or fourth best pitcher uh George Springer got old all of a sudden real quick uh he is he is like one foot out the door uh for the league at this point here you’ve got Kevin kerm uh still hanging on yeah this is this is like a watered down version of the Mariners line lineup but Emerson Hancock you are right the reverse splits there uh stand out a 329 granted 87 play to princess but a 329 ISO this season against um same-handed hitting that uh that’s a bit of an issue there he is he’ll make it he is like a number five starter I can’t remember where he ranks in the prospect list now he got elevated because of all all the other guys that graduated up now but he is like he’s Guy where you’re going to remember his name and he’ll pitch for around five seasons but he doesn’t have any particular standout offering other than he’s one of the best pitchers in the world when we include the entire population on the planet just not just not in the major leagues um what do you have for home runs here uh for the afternoons I’m gonna go with uh completely off-the-wall one Brian De La Cruz off gar crochet okay yeah Brian L Cruz I’m going to go with a with a a call back a JD Martinez going against biley falter getting that uh getting that righty Lefty matchup here I think that is uh one that is uh gonna be fun it’s gonna be not not quite spicy but uh JD Martinez way closer to 40 uh than he is to his prime uh at this point I want to remind you guys of a couple important things here at stochastic the word free is going to be used and the word bball uh or two words bball is going to be used unless you’re creating a portmanto like we do so often here uh in putting those words together you have free best ball courtesy of Matt gajeski here at stochastic all you need to have is a stochastic account that’s it see I didn’t say anything more after that you just need a stochastic account once you’re logged in you go up to the top of the page where it says best ball parenthesis free close parenthesis and then you click on that get all the best ball content that is from us to you courtesy of the tuna man himself Matt keski we also you guys missed out on the July 4th deal but we had the odd Shopper was a flash sale 1776 see what we did there for the Declaration of Independence 1776 was your monthly price now we’re back to the regular prices of$ 49.95 per month 14.95 per week it is an amazing tool out there it does all of the market based wagering what that means is it pits all of the sports books against each other tells you which one has stepped out of line and where the value is this is constantly changing throughout the day because as the sports books end up uh getting a little too far out over their skis they are quickly uh reminded that they probably should go back into line with everybody else um we do have the um ability there where you can uh create the the wieders you want on odd Shoppers and then most it’s available on most of the major sports books you can just upload those Wagers to your sports book uh so that’s pretty cool as well that is the entry tool uh key things I like about it even though I’m in Florida and only have the Hard Rock as my lone sports book it lets me know when some of the bets here is like oh I’d love to bet on this oh look here it is on Hard Rock plus 350 home run for somebody that’s plus 550 everywhere else don’t bet that one Eric don’t bet that one because that is a way to not make money so this also you’re saying well what do I care emac we don’t have any sports wagering in my state my State’s not enlightened supports all the pickham sites too also builds out parlays on all the sports books as well as all the pickham sites here so a choer saving you time what is the thing we don’t have enough of and we can’t create magically out of thin air time here’s a great way to get in there 14.95 per week 49.95 per month that is odd Chopper let’s head to the a or the evening action here the four gamer 2715 games uh in a couple later games we have CER field weighing in on this late that’s going to cast a long Shadow here we have the Dodgers uh who I think they are the highest scoring offense I say that because I think the top three offenses are now split by about seven runs uh things have coalesced uh once again at the at the very top there um Milwaukee is seventh in runs scored so they’ve got some intriguing uh you know decision points there Fred Peralta on the mound for Milwaukee you’ve got the big Maple James Paxton going for um the Dodgers of course we’ll get K field Extravaganza there in San Diego we have uh Arizona and San Diego you’ve got Brandon fatty fat uh also known as Brandon fought taking on the Padres who will be countering with u Matt Waldren the lone practitioner of the curveball currently uh in this uh in the the league they have each faced the their respective opponents twice this year uh with one good and one bad start it’s been long enough that that should not really be a decision Point that’s a small enough sample size that that shouldn’t really be a decision point for us uh anyway but they’re going to be the pictures we kind of talk about until we Circle back to and here’s where I’m coming in with the question for you you’ve got uh Ranger Suarez uh on this slate going against uh Spencer schwellenbach schwellenbach yeah we’re not going to be really excited about him but Ranger Suarez does have the potential to be uh the number one pitcher today he currently ranks third bat uh in the uh NL odds for the the the Sai Young uh award and then the other thing that is really really crazy is when we look at the rounding out the top 10 for the Sai Young odds right now you’ve got uh Suarez is in third wheeler is first sail is second freed is fourth uh Ronaldo Lopez is fifth and then Nola is 10 each of these teams has three pitchers in the top 10 for the sa young and they’re dominating the top five that’s just that’s just nutty uh that all of this is going on here but uh Ranger Suarez what what do you have for him excellent ground balls in his age 27 season getting just enough strikeouts to be interesting going against the team that has scored more than four runs three times in the last 13 games and uh they are of course missing Ronald aunia and Harris what do you think about Suarez I’m not near not nearly as high on him as you are I mean just build up he might be he might be third in the NL saai young odds right now but I don’t see that lasting long you know he’s still been good like even though his 2.27 ra isn’t as good as his 2.96 expected obviously 2.96 is still really good it’s more just like he’s fully priced in Atlanta no thanks all right fair enough uh that that takes it well then who who is your next is it so that does bring up the like well who Who you gonna play then because you have to play two pitchers so in that regard Suarez is in play but I’d much rather play Freddy Peralta at the same price against the Dodgers um you know I think that Peralta maybe has a little bit of a lower floor but certainly a higher ceiling as least as far as I’m concerned and then I actually think Lugo F and Waldren are all really good options F and Waldren in that game that went crazy last night probably my favorite to Waldron seems a little bit too cheap especially against an Arizona team that is better against left-handed pitching and fought is good his underlying numbers are really good he’s not the best strikeout pitcher but for this slate I think he looks good and then Lugo it’s just a matchup thing and he’s also been spectacular this year I know that he’s definitely do some negative regression but certainly doesn’t mean it’s gonna happen tonight in a really good match up on paper against the Rockies albe it in Kors so I think for me it’s the Lugo fought Waldren range all right that that would be so Lugo I believe doesn’t he lead league in wins I think he has 11 I was looking at that out of curiosity I like to go look every now and like oh look Jose Lugo up there what is this age 33 season why not half a career year uh spent uh the middle portion of his career as a reliever of course last year he turned uh back into starter join the rotation there for the Padres continued uh with good success again this year so we can’t we can’t knock that but uh uh I think he’s okay I certainly is there you know we can we can make a case for pretty much else to melt down here uh and we’re going to uh in in as we continue talking through these guys for me the number two guy is Waldren um he had one good start one bad start uh as I mentioned here against um uh Arizona he throws he’s up to now 39% of the time throwing the knuckle ball he actually throws a a real knuckle ball Tim more Tim Wakefield style knuckle ball than than you know the guys way way way back in the day but still classified as a knuckle ball different than the knuckle curve and all that it’s about a 77 mph pitch um here he has if I remember correctly I think his fast Ball’s kind of in the very very low 90s it’s not in the upper 80s it’s in the low 90s but just barely he doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts so his whole game is keep pitchers get or keep hitters guessing with this pitch mix keep them off balance and try to get to when when we say weak contact just not you know what would be a home run against some pitchers ends up being a Fly ball a dying Quail or whatever it is and they can of corn and it just doesn’t quite do what needs to be done um even though he does have a higher hard hit rate uh it just means the combination of the the launch angle and the other uh variables don’t work out in the hitter’s favor so he is someone that um that I like um Brandon uh like this Sir Charles said Brandon fed that’s a good one I hadn’t thought about that that joke I I’m just hung up on fatty fat because I think it’s fun to say that but fought as Matt and I have talked about several times solid underlying numbers hasn’t really come to fruition with those strikeouts even though he gets uh he has strikeout stuff this is I say this about a lot of the Cincinnati Reds pitchers he has strikeout stuff doesn’t necessarily get the strikeouts so uh If he if he finally gets that all put together he’ll be a strong pitcher he’s he is one of the top prospects coming up through the Diamond Backs he’s definitely worthy of being in the league it’s just kind of one of those earning curve uh things here uh but we the thing we want to remember Fernando tatis and um Sandra Bogarts they’re injured right so all the said oh my God it’s San Diego Padres oh they went off last night yeah Manny Machado you got Cronin you got J and pro profar and you’re like and who else yeah they’re missing a few people um especially from last year because obviously woto is now a Yankee so those are um reasons I like those two pitchers I can’t get excited about uh the Big Maple uh that would be James Paxton got Gob smacked last Sunday I think he gave up eight or nine runs uh in that start uh I I love calling out this he was a terrific pitcher started out with the Mariners back in 2013 right in the very very early days of DFS he had back then was just you know super tall everybody thinking a he’s the next Randy Johnson well not quite didn’t have the fast ball but he’s tall and he’s a lefty so uh he has had one of the more interesting pitching Styles not quite like nasty Nester Cortez with all the different arm slots uh and release points but he had had a unique pitching style kind of like more of a catapult was the best way I could describe it but just injuries have have really hurt him I think he has under 30 starts over the last four seasons combined or five seasons actually because I think he missed all of 2022 uh with injuries here so even though he has been in the league forever he’s only made like about 175 starts this is not a pitcher you want to trust and Greg aronberg likes to [ __ ] on him all the time I don’t quite get to that point but the funny thing whenever we start breaking down Milwaukee mat and you can chime in on this is how are they the number seven offense in the league with run scored because when you start looking at their individual numbers you’re like okay I can get behind contras all right obviously adames and Yelich are good and then you start looking at everybody else especially against rties and you’re like where where’s the green this is a lot of red in these numbers here so so that somehow I would rather bet on them than than to figure it out than Paxton but it’s not like it’s a slam dunk um what are your thoughts here on the Brewers hitters and then sell me on on fastball Freddy here yeah well I think I’m much more on Mr aronberg side of things here as far as Paxton goes he stinks um is he like the worst pitcher in the world no but he’s trending towards like Patrick Corbin type levels in my eyes and he doesn’t strike many guys out he puts Runners on base sets up for big Innings I’m much more on the Milwaukee side than than uh Paxton here I like Milwaukee a lot I like them I don’t like them as much as the Royals on paper clearly because I think gomber is not as good as Paxton and you know they’re in cores but when you consider ownership and price tags it’s more price tag Milwaukee’s cheap for this spot Kansas City is Uber expensive so I think that’s something to at least look at I mean as of right now Milwaukee’s number two in our top stack tool so I like them quite a bit here uh again I don’t like them as much as Kansas City but I think that they’re certainly viable all right and then fastball Freddy going against uh the Dodgers here yeah number one pitcher in the top pitcher tool actually not pulling as much ownership as I would have expected because of the matchup um yeah just I think that he’s pretty clearly the top DFS pitcher on this slate and the Dodgers are excellent we know especially the top of their lineup with right now Otani Freeman and Will Smith it really drops down after that especially like six through nine you know obviously still missing mookie bets max mun’s out they haven’t gotten production from a couple guys they were expecting ing so again it’s not an easy spot by any means and the Dodgers are always in play even against Peralta but I think as far as upside goes he pretty clearly has the highest on the Slate at least in my mind all right that makes sense here uh kind of we kind of hit pretty much everything on this uh as as we’re looking at uh key Hitters from Arizona and the Padres uh who who is your your biggest fears of taking or going if you’re going to roster walren or Brandon F oh for for walren it’s definitely the top of that lineup with catel Marte Christian Walker Jack Peterson right now Walker’s on fire Peterson the same and Kat Marte is just damn good so I don’t think it’s an easy spot for waler I just think slate considered he looks good and then for f I think it’s the guys you mentioned Auto Bron and worth profar all right let’s have a little fun here I’m going from memory but I’m going to go I’m going to go over here and call it up on ESPN because I’m a boomer and of course that’s where I’m going to look for this but batter versus pitcher uh for the knuckle ball I if I remember correctly they’ve got about 50 at bats against walren yes so the collective lineup here for Arizona’s got 50 at bats against walren uh 240 uh average 333 on base percentage plus um or on base percentage and then 380 slugging they have just 10 strikeouts so that kind of goes to in in those 50 at bats so that kind of goes to the point of you walr is not going to get a ton of strikeouts they have one home run and four doubles right so they have five total extra base hits that kind of goes to the point of hey he’s he’s going to get have them just not quite get it on the screws right just enough that that oh hit it into the ground real hard or oh he got under that one it’s too high caught uh so that is what we want to look at for fer I or for walren I just wanted to see what jock Peterson had done he’s actually 0 for nine now that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t play jock Peterson tonight he’s having a fine year he has far less strikeouts Than People imagine he actually is still one of the last hitters that has a good average regularly as what is the team leading average at this point Matt something like 253 or something like that it’s just sounds about right the numbers are way different uh than than the Once Upon Time uh you know your best team on average would have like a 280 uh Collective team average and you’re you know batting 300 would land you in like the top 35 or 40 of the league that’s no longer the case uh at at this point but Peterson is someone I think gets uh doesn’t get the credit he deserves for actually being a mostly complete hitter set aside the fact of him against lefties but against righties he doesn’t have holes in his swing like he did at the beginning of his career um when we when we look at at F yeah it’s it’s going to be you know Machado uh Broar and cron and war that are the ones that’s that make me a little nervous I just want to look at the uh at the so he’s got 67 at bats collectively just 10 strikeouts uh for him against this team uh oh Luis Aras seven for 10 hey that’s that’s pretty pretty good but oras he’s he’s pretty pretty good uh at those getting those singles against most any pitcher Crona worth is six of 12 uh those are the numbers that really pop out um profar has the lone home run he’s three for six and then Hassan Kim in the righty Ry action he has the other Home Run he also has one of the three doubles U just two strikeouts so uh not not an easy walking the part m in the park match up but of course without tatis uh and and uh Xander bogerts in the lineup it’s definitely different there for the Friars uh any home run calls on this slate and then we’re going to look at the lineup generator Home Run calls on the main slate I am gonna go with reys Hoskins oh okay that would that would be off the board uh I I need to not as off the board as Brian De Cruz against crochet n that okay that that is that is staring staring into the dragons MW as the as they say well no one says that anymore back in my day you know when dragons were flying around uh in the medieval times we used to say that but not so much now I kind of I kind of want to go with you know what you know who’s going to clear the basis off so it’s only a uh a solo shot there for Hoskins it’s GNA be Jackson cherel out of nowhere I I will show you what it’s like to go way way off board we’ll go with that uh let’s look I respect it we’ll look at the lineup generator let’s let’s do FanDuel we didn’t talk a ton about FanDuel today uh go ahead and click that so the lineup generator is set up for the main slate gets a little tricky on Saturdays because sometimes DraftKings calls their main their four o’clock game their early slate and their other slate the main slate sometimes they call it the main slate and the late slate FanDuel does the same thing so we do we’ve just said whatever they’re designating their main slate or their largest contest that’s what we’re going to set up the line generator for takes a lot of resources in the backround to get this created which is why we do that um but let’s go ahead and click on uh all stack types here uh for us we can also choose uh which type of Stack we want uh let’s go with contrarian tonight I’m curious to see uh how how much uh things uh coales around here so fanduel’s main slate on this one is going to be the the 4:00 slate so uh let’s you can lock in a picture if you’d like let’s skip that you can lock in a hitter if you’d like you can then choose your stack types or I think we missed I missed that prompt but for fandu you can choose 4443 422 draft K can go 53 44 and uh five out uh we can build out up to 20 lineups in our holding pen click save if you like it discard if you do not and then uh once we get up to 20 we can go and look and see uh at our portfolio if you look over on the right you will see all of the players and how many lineups they’re on uh if you look at the left those are the different lineups if we click on a player in on the right side it will then highlight all their lineups and bring them up to the top uh of the left side there that will allow you to inspect specific lineups if you want to go in and see the build or makeup of it you can uh manually swap out a player or two as you see fit once you have everything set up how you like you can download that uh via the CSV uh export function and then copy that into your uh template for your uh DFS uh site of choice so that is the lineup generator this is built on all the same tools that create the Sims the top Stacks tool the top pitches Tool The Leverage it accounts for all of that this is running the the simulating the Slate tens of thousands of times creating these lineups based upon the input parameters that you’re choosing and then giving you the the top uh expected value lineups now people say oh we we will I get the same lineup as everybody else no you probably won’t me and me and uh Jacob and M could sit here probably for an hour with the same parameters locking in the same uh hitter and pitcher and still not get an identical lineup as as each other because there are just that many permeations especially when we get into baseball that make things different because you know all of a sudden you’re getting you know picking on a David fry or a Tyrone Taylor they may only be on 4% of the fields lineups right that means four out of a 100 lineups that that they’re going to be in right so it’s very easy to get Comin combin toally different here when using the lineup generator but that is the the key thing to call out uh do we have any weather as we wind things down here see I know it’s it’s summer in Atlanta which means the potential for Popup storms everybody’s favorite DFS weather information uh why yes there’s a little bit of rain in uh around in Atlanta should not be an issue uh for the earlier slate humidity afternoon humidity showers probably come in around 4:30 which is right around now and 7 in the DC Metro Area they’ll be intense they’ll last about 15 minutes and that’ll be it I remember my wife and I were at a Nationals game uh one time uh in the afternoon was probably a four o’clock Saturday game and uh it was raining directly over the ballpark there were no clouds in the sky and literally we could see across the streets on either side it was not raining so it was just it was just magic and everybody’s just looking at each other laughing and oh it felt so nice because it was a hot day but uh it lasted for about 15 minutes and it was just like how are there no clouds yet it’s still raining here so uh that’s that’s what we’re looking at nothing that would uh really dramatically impact the games so uh no fears on those final thoughts Matt as we slide on out of here with another Saturday in the books yeah I love these early Saturday slates where all the games start basically at the same time so let’s have some fun and win some money all right we are 10 minutes till lock so if you have not kicked off your stochastic Sims yet you will want to do that uh and get ready to get those lineups in you guys can follow Matt over on Twitter fantasy tips Matt you can find me at emac DFS and of course it is stochastic with that Gamers good luck