We’re here for the John Deere Classic to discuss all things PGA Fantasy and beyond. The Bettor Golf crew will help you cash-in your DFS lineups and betting cards! Joined by special guest Joel Schreck (@DraftMasterFlex)
@WinDailySports
what is up everybody Welcome to better golf podcast I’m your host Spencer agar and I’m excited to be joined this week by one of my favorite people in the space Joel Shrek you can find Joel alongside David bileski and myself every Tuesday night on our PGA DraftCast show here at wind daily Sports we co-host and draft DFS lineups against the industry’s best audience once again be sure to join us at 6 o’clock Pacific time 9:00 Eastern every week to take part in that draft we promise you will have fun you will be part of the most interactive show in the space and hopefully in the process you learn a little bit something about how we make our builds so please check that out if you’re not doing so already you can also find Joel on Twitter at draftmaster flex but Joel we talked last night with each other we’re back here doing better golf first of all I appreciate you joining me Nick is not able to make it he’s on vacation this week but how’s everything going with you it’s good I’m excited to join you today the better golf show is an awesome show especially if you’re betting on any golf tournament so to be invited to join you for the John Deere was uh flattering and I’m excited to get break it down with you before we get started I do very quickly just want to give a shout out to the podcast uh sponsor of this show that’s going to be Underdog fantasy Underdog is now offering their new pick eight special where you can add eight selections to your pick them entry and win up to 325 times your money code bgp gets you an additional firsttime deposit offer to add even more to your bankroll before you get started including what is I like this a lot Joel I don’t know how much you’ve checked out Underdog but they offer these special bets on there that’s their way of randomly boosting your bankroll they’ll offer things like in the golf Spectrum will a certain player get over 0.5 pars during the round that’s a way for they’re trying to boost your bankroll there’s a lot of different ways to get action down at Underdog fantasy so if you’re not doing so already use the code bgp to get started Joel when we look at this tournament we spent I I would say 15 minutes talking about the course and everything over on our Draft Cast show I I don’t want to talk too much about the venue I think you’ve already heard it if you’ve gotten to Wednesday at this point of the week you kind of know where you’re at with the venue and what’s going on with that but very quickly one of the things that Nick and I like to do before we get started on the show is there any bet out there as far as a wager goes that you like this week that you would like to drop on the show before we start looking at the DFS board well I’ll start by saying I think because of this water downfield I think the value this week is really in the top 30 or top 40 markets because after the top let’s call it 15 to be conservative to me a lot of these guys are pretty equal and so you’re getting plus value on some guys that I just think are better golfers in this field than they should be so more so than even matchups I think you can really Target me specifically I highlighted the top 30 as where I’m targeting guys where there’s some really good value and to name a few you know Sheamus power who you drafted I believe on the show last night uh he was definitely drafted on the draft cast has played really well at this tournament in the past his form is pretty good and cl those tournaments we wait to see Shaman’s power are the ones that are these water down fields he doesn’t have to see the likes of Scotty Sheffer and Ry mooy this feels like one where he’ll get you a really nice result and you’re getting him right now at plus odds in the top 30 market so um he’s won all with but the guys in my top 30 card currently as it stands are power senson Joel damond Novak Vegas and Daniel Burger I like that comment that you talked about there because I think when you look at tournaments like this and I’ve heard this narrative spute across the industry quite frequently this week where you get what I mean I guess there’s no other way to call it it’s a water downfield at its very core here I do think you have golfers that if we look in two or three years they might end up being top 20 players in the world but one of the narratives that I’ve heard just over and over again is because we have a weaker tournament there is more volatility that comes into play I act like maybe at the very top end that could happen but I tend to agree with you Joel I think that there are certain gaps in the skill sets that we’re seeing to where your high-end players inside of my model have a gap from the next tier that next tier has a gap from the next tier we’re actually seeing these really big deviations in my sheet from what the expectation would be so uh I agree with what you have to say about that I don’t know if you’re Frozen on me right now Joel it looks like you are on my end but I very quickly before you get back with it I I’ll touch on some of the bets that I like so I took Dylan woo minus 123 over sh Kim that was a profile that I was trying to take on in sh Kim my matchups are always going to come down to can I find a person that I want to fade and if I can find the person I want to fade do I have enough value in the opponent that I’m or the person that I’m actually going to be backing in those spots so Dylan woo for me was one of those options that just carried a ton of value that I think the market is a little bit too low on Rec Rec um if you look at the outright Market that to me is where um a lot of my value came into play it’s been very close the last couple weeks I see your back now Joel that’s that’s a good sign with this but uh in the outright Market I’ve come in second place four of the past five tournaments very close to hitting an outright winner just haven’t been able to get it over the top with it but got Aaron Riot 22 to1 I thought he was the best value on the board when things open I took JT post you can find that at 35 to1 Rio hits satun I feel like that’s our boy combin Joel one of us is on him every single week it feels like for the most part there uh got him at 66 to1 you can find a 75 to1 out there in the market that’s the best value on the board took Doug gim at 80 to one and then Daniel Burger 80 to1 so kind of a double down there with the burger take but uh to go back to what you said Joel I think this is one of those tournaments where you can get an in some of these placement markets so like the way you built your card there let’s push this into the actual DFS board so let’s start in the $10,000 range unfortunately and this is one of like the unfortunate situations we keep finding ourselves in here kley was listed on the odds board and then withdraws after the odds had come out so it gives you this position now where there’s four players $10,000 and up Aaron Ry 10,000 sunj M 10,300 sep straa 10,400 Jordan spe 10,500 when you look at that range what do you see here are there any players that you are looking to completely fade are there any of those options that you’re looking to back a little bit heavier and if so what are those contests that you’re looking to do I know that you specifically play in a lot of big money smaller field groups it’s not going to be your prototypical gpps of what you’re looking for maybe in some of these plots you don’t have to get as aggressive there but I’ll I’ll let you take that question well before I dive in directly I think one thing I was was wanting to ask you about that we really didn’t touch on on the draft cast at all is are you interested or will you have any exposure to Jordan spe in this field so here’s the thing about Jordan spe and when I wrote my article at Roto bowler on Monday I was expecting Jordan spe and maybe this is where it comes down to where do you trust the ownership percentage because I’ve seen some books or some places that are projecting sub five% I’ve seen other that have them in the 14 15% range it’s the most vastly different expectation that we’re getting here I kind of gave the answer on Monday that if we can get a really low owned Jordan Speed some of the current ball striking metrics had been a lot better than what we had gotten from the results with it right now inside of my model I see about 133% 133% is really heavy for me on a golfer that isn’t necessarily carrying the best form with it so I don’t know if you’re necessarily getting the leverage that I thought you were going to get in this position like at at 133% if I’m directly comparing he’s very equivalent to me trying to find an option here that would be about the same like I don’t see a huge difference between him and Sheamus I guess like if we want to directly compare there ownership is is very on point with the two names the projected win Equity speed is a little bit higher than him but you’re looking at a you know $2,200 difference that there so I don’t know that would be my answer do you have a differing take Joel I do and and here’s my take on spe at 133% he’s probably not going to be relevant for me I think that’s a little bit to high if it does come in under let’s call it 7% as know if it’s under 7% I think he’s really interesting and here’s why we talked last night a lot and I will reiterate it tonight you don’t need to use all your salary even with Jordan spe you don’t need to use all your salary you can build a lineup week leaving a ton of money on the table and so I would be way more hyperfocused on ownership than anything else and so you look up here ry’s GNA be heavily owned sunj is going to be heavily owned spe at under if he’s under 7% owned certainly has the upside now he’s not playing well that’s obvious but he’s also not playing in fields that are this weak he’s also usually not playing on courses that are this easy and to think if someone can come up and have a surprise really strong finish of all the people in this field that person’s name being Jordan spe would be the one I would bet on versus a random person down there in the 7K range so um for those reasons I think he makes a ton of sense for especially these big field gpps as long as it is coming in under 7% I could see and maybe this is where contest selection ends up playing a difference here in in some of these smaller field contests maybe more of the nature of what you would be playing I could see spe being being well I don’t know let me ask you this I mean you you maybe can give me a better answer here do you think he would be higher owned or lower owned than in your large field gpps I think he will be higher owned in the large field than he would in a small competition you’re probably if you look at the market like all the sharp money for the most part which is a very interesting discussion to be had here he’s not a favorite over sunjay he’s not a fa favorite over Aaron he’s a favorite over every other person though in the space that I’ve seen him against so there’s been some credible money that’s come in on him and one of the things I always talk about and I guess my concern would be I just think the ownership ends up being higher and we do get them in that 13 14 15% sort of range but what I always say is is people are way too fickle with what their takes are in this space like I understand Jordan spe is too expensive on the surface but if he’s too expensive on the surface and he’s carrying no ownership there’s leverage to be created there he’s a top 25 player in any model that you should be building and depending on exactly how you build it you can work him up really high like Vegas likes him enough that it listed him as the favorite kley with withdrew from the field and all of a sudden he got bumped down a couple spots which is just a really funky move there for him to fall but you’re still looking at like Vegas looking at a top five golfer there before his last tournament he had gained off the T in 10 consecutive starts so I I don’t know like I I see that’s the problem like let me bring up Zach’s comment um here very quickly so there’s been so I don’t think he’s going to be 25% I also don’t think though he’s going to be 4% to me this is where my model it took the high end the low end of a lot of these options and it landed him in this range which he has fallen a little bit In fairness at last night when I ran this he was 14 a half% now he’s 12 a. half% it probably would have to be sub 10% for me though I would agree I think the biggest thing to highlight on this decision though is more about the tournament right I think and what we said before kind of doubling down on that is you like I’m leaned into you don’t need to spend all your money there’s a world where four of these top guys five of these top guys don’t do well and then all of a sudden the optimal lineup just doesn’t even spend all their money and so if that’s the case you can have a Jordan spe with upside and it’s coming in at really low owners ship like that’s what you’re looking for so it shouldn’t matter like if Jordan Speed was priced at 8K flat that really shouldn’t make a difference a big one at least this week unless you’re like super overweight on like Ry and sunjay I it’s the only way you can play is by getting them in your lineup fine but like if you’re not super overweight on two of these guys in the 10K range it shouldn’t matter what he’s priced at because you don’t need to spend all your dollars either way so it’s just looking at the the ownership percentage anybody else in that range that you’re looking to fade completely no I mean I I like Ry and sunjay a lot I also like straa a lot I think he’s third for me in that tier up after Ryan sunj um but I will be playing them you know for me it’s going to be probably lining up one of them in most of my lineups and then kind of balancing out from there yeah I think that makes sense and it also goes back to what you were talking about of maybe not necessarily having to spend all your there would have been a different price scale and I don’t know what they would have put out but it would have been slightly different if Klay would have removed before they put the pricing out I think you would have seen a couple of these names go up you probably would have a name or two that would be in this $10,000 range whether it’s a Maverick mcney or whoever it is so um to answer Zach’s question of the sun J trap that would probably be for me the one that I am most fearful of that he ends up imploding I know a lot of the recent metrics look really good and we talked about it on Draft Cast last night more so David and myself I know that you like Tim Joel and it’s not to say that I don’t but I had some concerns with his weighted proximity for this venue outside of the top 50 in a lot of the key metrics with the proximity totals I was looking for I also think though when you look at the profile here he’s one of the safer Targets on the board so like it’s the mix and the match of it to where the safety rating looks good the upside Mark doesn’t necessarily look as good in my model and I I think you have have to figure out what does that mean to you and then the other interesting point I don’t know if you saw this Joel sunj is one of the most bet golfers this week in the outright market so whether you want to say that’s a good or a bad thing usually it’s not a good thing in that would be one of the answers but here’s what I found intriguing at one of the sports books he had a 7% uh of the Wagers coming in on him but his hold percentage was 14% of the bets so when you have that sort of an Outlook with it that’s usually the sharper Wagers like when the the actual hold percentage is higher than the bets that are coming in and double is a really significant total you don’t normally see it jump that much so for me that that’s kind of telling me that there are big money Wagers coming in on sunj I know when I talked to Nick yesterday he seemed to think that it was Sun Jay’s tournament to lose which he’s probably not the only person with you also drafting him Joel on the show very I think he was your first pick correct first overall Pi yeah first overall the first overall pick in the draft exactly so look it makes a lot of sense like the thing is you’re just going to have to pick and choose your spots here you I do think that you could probably feasibly find a way to play everybody because it is so easy to make a build here but you’re just going to have to find a way to trim some of the fat on some of these ends here so whether that’s being super aggressive in the $10,000 section or as we dip down here into the 9000s we’re going to have a lot of similar questions that are being asked of us of there there’s some ownership near at the very top of this board McNeely Thompson McCarthy I think they’re going to be the most owned guys you drop a little bit lower JT poston’s gonna hold his weight himself at what I see about to be 18% but every other name there is between eight to 11% with Jason day Keith Mitchell Sam stepen so I’m gonna set you up for this question Joel because I want to have a conversation about Keith Mitchell and and there’s something I want to tell you that I didn’t mention on the show so anybody who tuned into the draft cast last night will get this answer which will kind of tie everything together but of any of those low owned guys who are you intrigued by and I’ll let you talk about Keith Mitchell based off of that so are we talking just the low own guys in this 9k range yes well the weird thing about that is if you look in the 9k range there’s really I’m only seeing two guys that are really coming in low owned um for the most part I everyone in this range at in at least from what I’m saying it’s over at least 12% which so do you have Keith Mitchell higher based off that answer he showing at 13% for me right now okay I have them so I have Jason day at 8.46 I have Keith Mitchell at 11.29 I have Sam Stevens at 7.18 and then I have every other person in this section between 17 to 22% okay uh so so I have to assume are you specifically asking me about Jason day without specifically saying Jason day no I I I actually want you to talk to me a little bit about Keith Mitchell because I think he’s the interesting one here even at the 133% total um I guess I’ll I’ll talk about this a little bit before you give your answer here so if you remember joelan you asked me this as I think it was a borderline joke and I actually gave an answer that went completely opposite of the answer that you probably expected me to give when you asked me is the player model that’s expected to make the most birdies the one that’s going to be the one that’s going to win the golf tournament and here’s the reason why it’s not Aaron Ry was my projected winner in my sheet but the person who was expected to make the most birdies was Keith Mitchell there are some concerns with the profile that he has and there’s a reason why he got bumped down ever so slightly you look at some of the current form the ball striking looks great the putter continues to go south in a lot of these spots but there was a positive trajectory it expected increase in my model on bent grass greens I am a believer and whether it’s 11% or 133% I’m going to view that as the same percentage here for the most part I don’t think we get some massive difference between those two numbers Mitchell is the name that has gotten such a sour taste in everybody’s mouths because he continues to grade well in models and he’s coming out there for these events and he when he’s the really popular choice like there’s really no other way to say it he has fallen flat on his face over and over again and I’ve gotten caught a million times I know Nick has gotten caught a million times with it but there are these situations that we always talk about where public perception goes too far and Keith Mitchell with any semblance of form to me is a realistic top four or five sort of priced option on this board with probably the same ownership percentage going above 20% so I thought at the price tag we were getting there is some Boomer bust nature to him just from what we’ve gotten recently I love his ceiling though I I really cannot believe with the ownership I was seeing and maybe it makes more sense to me now because you had a higher ownership percentage and even if it’s only 2% that maybe you thought you had to go to him I I wish flored when you took Keith Mitchell I I planned my whole build of how can I get Keith Mitchell late to round everything out and I thought it was a very Savvy pick on your part so here’s what I’ll I’m going to tell you a quick story because I think this will explain my thought process here and I’ve said this a bunch before if you follow the draft youve probably heard me say this before but my quick story is this I have not always been into golf betting this started for me during the pandemic is when I got into it me and that was my year oh did I freeze you did freeze I I can hear you now though maybe you might be frozen again you’re good on my end now Joel I’m back now can you hear me yes I can hear you ah sorry about that um so to recap the the reason that first year of me playing PJ DS I believe was my most successful years because that this is exactly naturally what happens you play every week you get high on somebody they burn you they disappoint you and then you don’t want to play them anymore you’re like hey I put all these eggs in this basket and he disappointed he missed the cut I’m not going back to this guy because I’m not going to lose money again on the same guy but the reality is that’s an awful thought process because the reality of the situation is if you liked him the week before not that much has changed in a week and while you got burned he’s still probably a really good golfer maybe something went wrong on a couple holes he can come back this week and still be really successful and the real thing that changed is a lot of people have that mentality and the ownership goes down because people don’t want to get burned a second time and so the person who just isn’t scared of that and just says you know what there’s a reason I liked him last week didn’t work out last week but the same reason why he’ll be a good fit this week I’m going to go back to it at lower ownership Keith Mitchell’s a good golfer at 9200 he’s probably underpriced in this field he’ll probably end up having closer to the result you expected from him last week and you’re going to get it at a much lower ownership and so the ability to be able to just have that thought and like don’t be scared because of the disappointment is what will get you over and that’s exactly what happened here we loved Keith mutro last week he burned us everyone’s disappointed and now you go into this weekend most people are just like I’m not looking that way let me get burned by somebody else and for me the reason we liked him last week was his ball striking is impeccable it’s going to lead the field it’s going to be one of the top 10 in every model that’s run that is still the case right he’s still going to be a really great ball striker in this really weak field yes we know the issue with Keith is going to be his putter he’s got to find a way to make some putts uh but you know at this point it’s not even him gaining Strokes putting it’s more of like it’s got to just not be a negative three Strokes putting if he can get you negative one I still think he’s a top 20 in this event yeah I mean that’s how I made a career sports betting with it it’s overcorrections to the market both positive and negatives it’s the player that gives you the one-off performance that he overachieved in a certain facet of his game that is not sustainable and they put him into a price range the next week where he doesn’t belong and then on the flip side of that equation it’s what you’re talking about here with the golfer where all the skill sets make sense for why they should find success but people got burnt and they don’t want to go back to them so whether we’re talking about outright bets or matchups are specifically here for DFS because we can see ownership that’s the nice thing that comes into play like we have some projection it doesn’t mean every single number is going to be 100% accurate with it but I can tell you more or less what these players are going to come in and when you start seeing these decreases in projected ownership that’s where you can get overweight to a player that really should be higher priced and higher owned and it’s not because people don’t want to get burnt and you kind of said that best and and I think that’s a very flawed mindset that’s out there in general that’s one of the reasons specifically why I run my model over a two-year running perspective I think when you run things from a shorter duration of time you can very quickly run into these traps and get yourself into situations to where one good or bad performance overly flaws the numbers with it and for Mitchell specifically he looks really good in the short term if you remove putting and he looks really good in the long term if you remove putting with it he’s the number one expected ball Striker for this course so I I think it goes down to what you talked about here I can’t promise he’s gonna make putts I can’t promise that he’s not going to do what we’ve seen in the past but at a lower ownership percentage and our price tag I think is too cheap I’m Gonna Keep betting on that profile at an ownership percentage that’s going to be lower quick question you mentioned running your model over a two-year span which I think for a lot of reasons makes a Time a sense are you able or do you in any way wait your model toward recency so meaning like is your model show okay I want my numbers to show their form over a two-ear spin how they hit the ball but I also want to highlight how they’ve been playing over the last whatever it might be 12 tournaments three months what have you I have a very simplified version of it in the model that I release where you can look at the past 24 rounds I have a little bit more indepth of a portion of my model on my end with it but yes I I still typically when I look for recency bias on it whether that’s like positive or negative with it I’ll typically run it over a two-year running duration so like I might take for an example 70% of that weight of the number that I’m getting and I might take 30% from the last whatever rounds it is 12 24 whatever I’m actually trying to find there and weigh that into the mix I’ll throw them next to each other I’ll try to figure out where the high the higher or lower options are from where their trajectory is moving with it so yeah there there is a portion of my model where I look at that I I typically for matchups more so I love the long-term duration of it because I think that tells more of a story I would say for upside purposes if you can find some of these players that are moving in a positive direction for win equity and maybe the market hasn’t caught on yet that’s one of the ways this season specifically I’ve been trying to weigh my model a little bit more aggressively and you know Byron and I have talked about this on our Roto baller show there’s not just one flat way to make a model there are certain models that you’re going to try to build for safety if you’re looking for matchups there’s going to be certain models that you’re going to try to build for upside when you’re looking for win Equity I I do tend to believe that a lot of the recent metrics kind of show you a little bit more of that um recent upside that we’ve seen so that’s kind of more for me and it works for gpp contest too it allows me to find some names like like we’ll get Tim later but Daniel Berger really fit that mold for me to where a lot of his recent ball striking is just surging in my sheet and starting to look like past Daniel Burger there’s the same putter concerns that we want to talk about for Mitchell but that upside that I’m trying to look for really showed in a name like Burger so I do think that it’s very important to not get stuck in one way of building something because you can end up missing out on different markets that way and as I said it’s not some perfect Str y to where one model tells the whole story so um hopefully that answered the question Joel it did I I I’ll just quickly add one small piece to that you know this is not this week’s tournament but there’s tournaments where we’ll break down where being a long driver is important and we want to Target Long hitters but that doesn’t mean that every player you play or bet on has to be a long one of the longer drivers right what that means is where you’re contemplating where there might be a tie the long driver has the edge that’s the guy you want to go to but that doesn’t mean the ENT top 25 or the top 25 longest hitters right like that’s just not how it’s going to play out so you know sometimes we do these we run these models to find the statistical Edge but that’s what it is it’s an edge it’s not a like math equation that shows you what the results going to be based on how they hit the ball so you got to be able to take some of that and then kind of take your data use it but pivot off it as well yeah I like that point that’s one of the reasons too that when I run categories they’re never like anybody who views my model will know they’re never straightforward it’s never just driving distance it’s always a weighted total driving and what is weighted total driving consist of well depending on the tournament that’ll change but there will be X percentage that goes into driving distance there will be X percentage that goes into driving accuracy there will be a couple other Nuance factors when you look at specific course types do we have thick rough how does a player usually find success when they have a shorter course that has thick rough how does a player work when you can bomb and gouge with it you add all of that together and while it does give me an answer of who my best expected total driver is you’re still looking at a very small weight of my model there and I think that’s one of the ways that I I’m able to get away from getting caught in the answer that you just talked about of like oh this is a driving test week and all of a sudden Cameron Champ ends upgrading number one in your model and he’s missed a million Cuts in a row and you’re like I don’t understand how I’ve gotten to that answer well you’ve gotten to that answer because you’ve overweighed one little piece of a very large picture of what you’re looking at exactly yep all right Joel let’s move into the $88,000 section here um there’s to me it’s an interesting range just because we see some dip in ownership for the most part and and everybody’s looking between for me seven to about 14% Sheamus would be the high end at 14 and the low end would be Kevin U at 7% are you trying to get exposure in this section I know you said how easy it is to make builds is is this somewhere that you want to be you know I don’t there’s a few guys in this range that I’m interested in but for the most part no I think this is a section that is and it’s more because I just don’t think this is the most talented section and I think you there’s guys I actually would prefer in the 7K range and the 8K range even if they were the same price I’d rather the 7K guys so you know that’s really more where I’m coming from but I do find it interesting you know that like like you said Kevin Yu is the lowest owned in terms of percentage because you know I mean you’re going to laugh because the theme for At least me this week is really team NOA and Kevin Yu is certainly puts himself on team nut but you know I think he grades all pretty well and that’s the type of guy I’d want to Target like strategically if a guy has some plus statistics in this range and he’s going to give me the lowest ownership percentage he probably makes the most sense so in this range I think of the guys I’m most interested I think it is I mean I do like Sheamus who the highest owned but Kevin Yu who’s probably the lowest owned is one of the guys who I would be most interested in this range and along with who I’ve mentioned a bunch last night and definitely will be in my C this week Adam spencon yeah I like Adam spencon also do you have thoughts on Luke Clanton you know he was drafted on our show last night um I can understand it and and I would if you wanted to play him I definitely wouldn’t tell anyone no there’s a lot of mystery behind it he’s still an unknown he has been playing well though and I think he’s a good golfer so I think there’s upside there I haven’t been overweight to playing him but I can certainly see the reasons why someone would want to get some exposure to him this week yeah he was drafted by me because you stole Keith Mitchell is how this all came to be and I ran out of options to pick from I I don’t know I I’m conflicted on what I think my model really likes him in the limited sample size and I’m probably willing to bet on the upside that I think he possesses you look at his college profile you’re looking at a golfer that’s won I believe three consecutive times with a handful of top five finishes and that’s equated really well to the PGA tour right now we’re also looking at a name here that has at the US Open he was one or two putts away at the final hole there from really pushing this into a top 35 ends up three putting comes outside the top 40 last week he’s competing at the tournament has a real chance to win and make just the second I mean Nick Dunlap when he won as an amateur and then you get him that wins as an amateur like that hadn’t happened with an amateur winning since 1991 I believe with Phil melson and Clanton had a real potential to have that happen for a second time and I I’ve noted this on a couple shows and Roberto talked about this I mentioned this last night on um I do links and locks with Roberto over at um Action Network but he was mentioning this and you even see it in the market he was the more highly touted Prospect between him and Nick dum dlap and you look at where the prices are in the market this week he’s a favorite over Nick Dunlap so you know I think Dunlap has great par five scoring ability I think he’s really starting to put the pieces together but if I’m weighing one versus the other I probably lean in the direction of Clanton that’s the way my model pushes it I agree with you on the spencon call I think he’s very interesting my model liked Ben Griffin this week he had some negative trajectory for upside but I thought he was fine hubt had the same answer are there with talking about that but the one name for me that I guess I seem to be higher on than the market and it’s a really weird profile we’re getting but it’s from Bo Hustler at 8100 Hustler for me entering Sunday last week was the projected number one scorer in my model when I took Baseline short game statistics with the actual ball striking and that is the reverse answer of what you typically expect with Hustler and his lack of ball striking and extreme nature that he puts together with the putter so you know if the ball striking might be making a turnaround here for one of the best Putters in the world I’m intrigued this is gpp only this is probably large field contest only just because I do think he has a really low floor if he doesn’t put the pieces together but I’m willing to take some chances at on hustler in some of these larger field contests because I don’t think you’re necessarily going to get high ownership I see seven and a half% right now you can tell me where you have him but I can’t imagine that he’s much off from that total I mean I have one at six so I have at even less um and and I I agree I mean if you would have asked us at the beginning of the or end of last year and and put the pricing for this tournament up he would have been in the 10K range right and so not a full year has gone by and now he’s you know down here at the 8K range so um and to double down on that you know he he gained four strokes on Approach at the Rock and mortgage and he lost Strokes three and a half Strokes putting which is not like him he’s a good putter so I wouldn’t expect him to be a terrible putter again he typically gains Strokes putting um I think bull Hustler is a good call out of someone who might be heading in the right direction and would look to probably be underpriced at also pretty low ownership in this field I will add one more thing I was looking at the numbers when you were when you were going through about Luke Clinton one more thing to add about him that does make him maybe interesting to play is I mean listen it’s a small sample size it’s only two tournaments but they were both in June within the last month he gained a ton of Strokes driving on both tournaments the US Open and the rocket mortgage he was plus and and pretty healthy Plus on approach in both tournaments he was pretty bad around the Green in both those tournaments and if there’s one place where that shouldn’t hurt you it’s here right around the green game it shouldn’t be a huge detriment to him so if he’s going to be plus striking the ball on his driver and on approach and he’s going to make putts like he’s been doing and he gets neutralized by his one weakness which we’ve seen again it’s only been two tournaments it should be a good spot for him this week yeah I I agree with that and just to touch on the bo thing one more time I I I think the way of betting him to win or a top 10 is probably the exact way of going about it if you’re trying to find his upside and then in gpp contest same answer that comes into play there uh we have a lot of people watching right now if anybody has any questions don’t be shy feel free to put them into the chat Joel and I will get to them before this show wraps up we move into the $7,000 range here there there’s a lot of players we don’t need to talk about every single one of them if you want to just give me a couple that you’re going to be overweight on this week maybe a name or two that you’re going to be fading completely I think that would help everybody out there listening I think another guy that that’s really interesting for this week and is a similar concept to not quite as good but similar concept to Keith Mitchell is Lee Hodes right and I think Lee Hodes is now looking at you know sub I’m seeing him at 6.5% if you have similar um but he’s all the way down here priced at 7500 and heading into the week he missed the cut at the rocket mortgage but in may he had two 12 places in a row at the PGA and the Charles Schwab he gained a ton of Strokes on approach he hit the ball really well at The Travelers missed some putts but he’s a good putter I think this is a week where he can find that that putter I mean he gained over two strokes putting three weeks in a row from the RBC from the Wells Fargo the pbga championship with the Charles Schwab he was also really good striking the ball I think he finds some of that I don’t I mean he lost Strokes on Approach at the rocket mortgage but he’s been consistently pretty positive in that area and it seems to me this is another one of those immediate like hey he disappointed last week so let’s get off him well I think that’s a mistake I feel the people should probably go back to the leji as well which I will for sure this week and going down I know you like as well Daniel Burger I’ll let you touch on him but the guy next him I also like is Andrew Novak who I feel at this point in the year and it might be the the boring name Theory where it’s like there’s not that much excitement about Andrew Novak but he’s outplayed the price tag that they’re putting on him I mean even the last two weeks at the RBC Canadian last two tournaments he’s played in he was 14th at the Rocka morgage he was 20th he’s gaining Strokes on his approach quite often this season he’s a positive putter I mean there’s not much to not like about his game the only thing that you might be a little concerned about is his driving accuracy on this course um but it’s not like he’s horrendous you know it’s maybe average to slightly below average I think Andrew Novak someone who I would have thought would have been priced a thousand dollars more in this field I I thought there were so many players between that 7,000 to 7400 range that kind of go to that same answer that you just talked about Joel where for the most part they’re very equivalent to the $8,000 golfers that we’re talking about then you could very easily flip and swap them depending on exactly how well they were playing in the spot entering this week and for whatever reason the market decided to push these names lower and there’s a lot of these very prototypical answers and I’ll even include Patton kazy who’s 6,900 into this mix here kind of goes down to a section but I think he’s worth talking about with these names but like him we talked about Ben Silverman off the air all of us uh which was funny and I think we all had a similar agreement that Silverman is very playable in this tournament I thought he was too cheap he was one of those names that I full faded last week and and to me this is where you can get a little bit differing with your opinions when you have a golfer that does not fit a course like he did not fit Detroit and he’s able to go out there competes in the top 10 of the leaderboard for most of the week finishes inside the top 20 enter Sunday as a legitimate top 10 expected performer in the tournament to me that just means he’s playing really good golf so now all of a sudden you give him a venue here where there is a much better projected upside for him than we were getting I think he’s an interesting name to keep under consideration for a guy that I only see right now at 5% ownership Chandler Phillips is an interesting name I talked about Dylan woo Dylan Woo is gonna be my matchup Target against sh Kim but High upside numbers for him there like playing him in gpp contests at sub 5% you mentioned Jonathan Vegas feels like a really nice spot to go to Jonathan Vegas with some of the ball striking that he’s put together you know Justin low Jacob Bridgeman Daniel Berger I think the Lee Hodes shout outs makes a lot of sense there’s just so many names to consider here and because there’s so many names to consider it makes it really simple pricing because there are between Rio I didn’t even talk about Rio I mean Rio is probably my favorite play on the entire board if you move up a little bit you know Rio Burger one of those other names I’ve talked about like that’s a very simple start to a build where you still have everything at your exposure to where you can get to with it so I I think lineups are very simple to put together this week just because the high-end names didn’t get very high in price with it but uh I guess my favorite play would be Rio based off of everything that I’ve said and then my least favorite play just to give an answer based off of this let me scroll through these names really fast I’ll I I guess would probably be I mean there’s no ownership around him I was very low on Joseph bramlet I have a matchup against bramlet this week outside of the top 100 in my model let me see if I can find somebody that has a little bit more well I’ll I’ll add to this question I think especially in a tournament like this like we’ve mentioned it’s water down to weaker field a way I want to look at my betting card is more toward less targeting upside and guys I really like and Target the guys I don’t like right there’s some guys that just not in good form Miss prist and I just want to go after them and just say they’re just not going to play well and I want to bet against them I want to see I want to ask you are there a few guys that you’re targeting this week in betting markets yeah and that’s typically my answer to begin with if we’re if we’re talking matchups that’s pretty much the whole blueprint of my game is find an opponent that I Am Lower on the market of somebody I want to take on and do it against an opponent that there is a safe enough grade in my model like I’m not going to just fade Joseph bramlet against an equivalent to Joseph Bramlett just because I want to take Joseph bramlet on you f you run into unfortunate situations where you sometimes don’t find the right opponent in these spots but you know bramlet was one of them sh Kim was another like I’ll bring up very quickly in my model who some of the worst values were in my sheets because I think you get a lot of interesting names here so the worst value Joseph bramlet Thor beorn olison who for some reason my model liked last week and doesn’t like this week so I tried to find a match against him couldn’t necessarily Do It um I tried to figure out a way to take on Alejandro toasty couldn’t figure out a way to take him on Michael thorb Orson I thought there was a really interesting bet for round one and the number unfortunately moved before I could even recommend it so this isn’t something that I’m on myself even but I thought Jonathan Vegas in round one against thorby Orson was a really Savvy way to try to get some value that number moved 15 20 points at a lot of the books and kind of rightfully so in that spot but um no to answer your question Joel like that’s that’s legitimately how I bet matchups it’s just you’re never going to find me in the Superstar versus Superstar matchups that’s just not where I’m going to be I I’m trying to find and this is why I like tournaments with a cut I’m trying to find Mis cut Equity I’m trying to find players that I don’t think are going to make it to Saturday I’m trying to find golfers that the market is much higher on than I am I’m trying to find opponents that I’m able to back that the market maybe isn’t necessarily at that moment and you know one of the fortunate things or unfortunate things depending on how you want to look at it is markets react for my matchups very quickly it’s an unfortunate thing because it’s harder to recommend plays because when a number shifts 20 25 30 points in the span of five minutes last week I recommended a head-to-head wager it was uh Carson young over Silverman funny enough and it was at bet online I gave that play out at Roto baller it was pulled off the board one and a half minutes after the BET was recommended there it was put back on the board 30 points higher than where it was recommended and you know throughout the week it got bet back down and I told everybody just be patient we’ll jump back in we don’t need to take a bad number here and I think at the end of the day you just it’s all about trying to find Value but it’s also a fortunate thing because when you have the ability to shift the market and it’s not something that I’m going to be doing with people that I am giving picks to because we’re not trying to influence a market one way or another but you know this is how you get yourself banned from a casino by the way like this is like the 101 of how you get banned but if you have the ability to shift the market this is why sometimes books will take action from the Billy Walters of the world because they don’t want Billy Walters to come in with a $500,000 bet on Ben Silverman over Carson young and then say gotcha after you move the line and drop it for you know $3 million doll on the other end of it but uh you know it’s one of those things when you can move a number you kind of know it’s going to shift with it so um that’s kind of where my matchups end up Landing Joel it’s becoming much more difficult to tail and to give them out but you know we try the best we can in the Roo baller chat with it yeah that’s that’s extremely hard I think to your point right you got to just recommend the plays and then you got to find the number that that you’re most comfortable with but to your point that you’re making and I totally agree with sometimes that does mean if the number was good on Monday you liked it but you thought about it and it’s no longer good on Wednesday just don’t take it and maybe it’s okay to just wait till next week and not have to just force it because you didn’t get the number you originally liked yeah I always try to have at least a 3% Edge on any matchup that I give out just because I know a number is going to move and that’s kind of a I always am transparent on what I would play the number up to with it but typically if you can have a little bit of a larger Edge that works out just just to talk about this uh Aaron Ry discussion very quickly if he wins the tournament Joel does he wear two gloves as he holds the trophy I think he has to right he’s got to it’s just trademark he can’t take it away he’s got to just shine with his trademark in the face of the people we’ll talk about who we think’s going to win I if anybody wants to know that’s probably going to be the pick I’m going to give with Aaron Ry there if you’ve been following me this week but let’s wrap this up in the $6,000 section as I said think there’s soft pricing throughout there’s a lot of names that can that are down here who are some of those options that you’re on the the 6K range is is tough this week you know there’s a world where you don’t even really have to go down here all that much especially if you don’t love some of these guys you mentioned he was drafted last night Patton kazy I think he does make sense so I like him you know we also mentioned last night Ryan Moore I think the audience ended up drafting him um you know he’s definitely going to be a captain of Team No put I think this tournament is going to make team no put look good in models of the way it’s kind of set up so I think Ryan Moore is grading out really well he does strike the ball well the problem with Ryan Morris and while I like Ryan moris and he’s made some Cuts this year he really doesn’t have many good results if any at all um and just a made cut you know not really enough I think the best he has a fifth at the valpar back in March um which you know that that counts but other than that he doesn’t have anything better than a you know 31st also so um um the positive also about Ryan moral is at the Rock and Morgan he gains strs putting which is a rarity for him if he found something and can be positive putting I do think they’re certainly upside with him here after that I’m gonna be pretty late I know you liked or you may mentioned Troy Merritt which which I think he makes some sense um I even would consider Carson young but these are now starting to be kind of darts that were throwing toward the end of the board terms of guys i’ be heavy on or prioritizing I’m going to be pretty light in this sixk range there probably is in reality a very slight uptick when you look at the Dylan Woos Chandler Phillips Ben Silverman’s uh Justin low Jonathan Vegas like I would rather get to those names if I could if I do find myself down into the sixes though David ended up taking Troy Merritt I agree with his take on it I think he’s a top 45 sort of play here that’s being priced outside of that zone um we talked about Patton cu desire I think there’s a lot of playability I know he’s going to be 8 to 9% owned but my model had him at like 12% being what the fair total was so in reality you’re probably getting a little bit of a rebate there based off of that and you know look we talk about Chuck and I know at wi daily one of the monikers there is you don’t play low price chalk and while I agree with a lot of that I will say that there are certain positions where you are much higher than the market on a player I still think there’s a ton of playability that comes into to play there so that’s why Patton kazy is still in my player pool based off of that discussion I think Sam Ryder has interesting upside if you’re just Boomer busting like a gpp play I also like the Carson young I I was all over Carson young last week started off hot fell apart and then got it together for the most part on Friday just played a couple bad holes to miss the weekend but uh really high upside climber for me in my model to where he could be a potential gpp winner in my opinion if you do find yourself down here but I I agree it’s very simple to make a build it’s not like you’re going to be finding yourself with multiple options probably from this range but if you do there are a handful of names I still like well there is one guy I want to ask you about uh are you interested or have you considering for this week Harry higs my model was out on him you know maybe I’m a little bit behind on the data because he he dominated in a lot of his starts leading into getting himself back into these tournaments and maybe some of that two-year running data is hurting him over the top with what I’m getting here just because he’s you would like to think a better player when you win a handful of corn fairy events leading into this but I don’t think I can get there with him like I see him at four to five percent ownership and for me that is too high when I would rather take I I would rather take Carson young at the same ownership percentage so like if we’re going to be talking about that ownership range I’m with you I don’t love Harry higs but I do think there’s some Intrigue like I think there’s some upside to him I think he’s playing better he’s really good around the greens and making putts so you know I’m not going to be overweight and looking to play AR EXs everywhere I can but if I’m building 10 lineups and one of them needs a guy at you know 6,400 to squeeze in I I might throw har GS in line up or twoo he’s probably more Boomer bust um which isn’t a bad thing I I don’t even give that answer as a bad as a bad way to look at this boom potential is good we talk about all the time that these rakes and these contests are high and you need to when you put the pieces together you need to be Joel and you need to win 50 Grand when when you get into those spots so if you’re just getting Rak to death in these moments like always my advice to everybody would be a little bit more aggressive then you think you need to be in spots um just because you’re shooting for the moon you’re trying to win contest you’re not looking to come in a Min Cash A Min cash will get you Rak off the site and to your point the one thing I’ll add to that is there are guys that like and Spencer mentions this a lot this guy grades better for safety than anything like there’s guys that on paper are going to look a lot better and we’ll use Harry higs as the example right but like when we say them there’ll also be very limited upside so if you’re playing a gpp the safer guy who is limited upside is the guy who you play Harry higs over because Harry higs is well likely in a matchup lose but the one tournament where he plays really well will get you a top 10 versus the safer pick maybe like a Brendon Todd type right will maybe get you the top 30 which is like fine but it’s not going to win you a gpp yeah exactly I mean that’s that’s the number one way to view when you’re building DFS lineups whatever the over is on this bet smash the over on the Aaron Ry gloves war and that is free money of all free money there you’re not going to get an easier bet than that Joel I’ll let you get out of here very quickly one of the things I usually do at the end of the show with Nick and I is we will run through these sections just favorite play least favorite play we’ll rapid fire through this so if we start in the $10,000 in up section favorite play on the board least favorite play you can preface that with if there’s not a least favorite play who are you lower on favorite play will be sunj M and for least favorite play I will say I’ll have to go with Jordan Speed I will say my favorite play is Aaron Ry my least favorite play would be I probably agree with you on the Jordan spe call there’s just too much ownership it it’s a different discussion to be had if he actually does come in at five or six perc own um at 12 to 14% you can beat me with him at that point agreed all right $9,000 section Joel all right 9,000 you’re not going to like it favorite play Keith Mitchell least favorite play you’re really not gonna like it maybe I’ll change it just to not hurt your feelings yeah I will give me the give me the real answer I’m the big boy I am gonna change it so I was gonna say Jason day but I’m changing my mind on Jason day because I actually think at the ownership level he probably makes more sense my least favorite play is actually JT Poston because of the ownership that hurts my feelings more wor I think people are overrating JT posting this week I could burn me listen he’s done really well here um but he’s just not in good form and I I I think you know when he has had some of these really good finishes he was playing better golf going into the week I don’t think he’s in that form right now I’m not gonna be playing JT post can I give you my take on JT Poston very quickly yeah so I’ve made this argument a couple times that there are certain players that have been hurt in these elevated events playing contest that are longer than they should be for their game and JT Poston is one of those Prime examples that every single time this season that he got a course that was too long for his game it not only gave him a bad result but kind of put him in a bad form leading past that moment there I kind of think that Poston has recovered from everything that happened there and we now finally get him on a course that should suit his game he’s a birdie maker that can find high-end potential so I’m going to say that JT Poston is my favorite play I’m going to roll reverse you on that one Keith Mitchell would be the second choice it’s just Mitchell is very volatile and I have no problems with playing him he would be my second option if Poston wasn’t available but Poston will be my favorite play there as far as the Jason day thing goes Joel like we’ve broken up a long time ago it’s it’s Windam and I I don’t talk about past relationships I it’s not something I do with that so Jason day is a thing of the past I’ll probably hold time out real quick question so if Jason day goes out and wins the tournament this week you feel nothing just I I I would be it’s like it’s like when you date somebody and let’s just say you’re dating whoever and and they end up and they go and they marry some famous person it’s like oh well good for them it means nothing to me anymore wow youve you’ve really moved on I’m proud of you Spencer man there was a time when we were doing PGA Draft Cast I never sent you what it was but for Valentine’s Day I wrote a whole Valentine’s Day poem for Jason day when I thought he was going to win again and he ended up not winning so the poem didn’t get revealed on the show but uh it we’re not at the same moment him and I that we used to be all right sad I’ll say I’ll say my least favorite play is probably Sam Stevens just because I I think he’s borderline safe but to me he’s the one option of this group that didn’t fit with everybody else it’s like if you were to tell me one of these things is not like the other here it would probably be Stevens for the price if he was cheaper we could have a different discussion 8,000 range my favorite play here I’m going to go with Adam senson and for my least favorite play I mean there’s a number of guys that I am just going to be full fading so to pick a least favorite play I’m going to pick someone based on ownership percentage um and I’m gonna go with Mark hubard I will say my F this is where I agree with you for the most part this is not a section that I’m looking to get overly invested in talked about liking spencon I think Lucas lover is fine if you’re trying to find that absolute team no putt sort of a moniker with it I’ll go with Luke Clanton Just because he’s 10% owned and I don’t know what he is at this moment and sometimes the unknown and that new shiny toy that you don’t exactly know what they’re going to produce as I’ll bet the upside that he is as good as advertised there for my least favorite play well I don’t dislike this player I’m starting to worry that the ownership continues to go up I’ll give Sheamus but I do think Sheamus is pretty safe so it’s one of those things I don’t expect them to miss the cut but I don’t know how much a 27th Place finish actually does for me if that’s where he ends up Landing yeah I think that’s fair all right $7,000 section and then we’ll get us out of here after we get to the sixes all right 7K Joel is frozen it looks like so I I’ll take this first uh I will take Rio hit SATs with an honorable mention to Daniel Burger I’ll say my least favorite play would be probably sh Kim sh Kim’s putter has been really Stout recently and it’s been carrying him but outside of the top 100 for me in expected total driving and expected weighted proximity so you throw those two pieces together I think there’s a downside that comes into play one of the reasons why I bet Dylan woo in that matchup if I move down into the 6000s probably Patton kazy would be my favorite play ownership would give you a very similar answer there least favorite play I don’t really love giving these least favorite plays in the $6,000 range just because look if you’re down in that section you’re either playable or you’re not or you’re most of the times you’re looking at very low ownership to begin with with a lot of these names I probably want nothing to do with Peter melady but um those would be how I wrap it up Jo I’ll kick it back to you sorry about that computer issues during the day messed it up my bad I’ll take I’ll fall on the sword for that one so um when I got cut off I was say my favorite play of the 7K range was Joel domond um there’s probably I think Spence you said the same thing there’s probably four to five guys that I have very similar I like Domin a lot but I could probably named four or five guys in that range that I would have been pretty high on my least favorite play in the 7K range there’s a number of guys you know here that you can touch but I think you mentioned as a guy you were targeting who I just don’t think is a good course fit here um Alejandro toasty you know I think he’s going to struggle missing these Fairways a lot and and getting up and down so going down to the 6K range like I said before I’m going to be pretty low in exposure here um but if I my my top play I’m G to give it because of the ownership I do like Carson young I know we mentioned him a few times he was you know T14 at the Canadian T30 at the Byron Nelson he does possess upside so that’s the type of guy if I’m dipping down here I want to Target and for my least favorite play I’m going to just give it the whole range I mean I’m not going to have exposure to more than two guys in the sixth G range maybe three at most so there’s a lot of there’s not there’s a lot not to like in the sixth G range if I could reive the picks I think you probably hit it on the head with Carson young there just because 4% ownership is a really enticing return when kazy is going to be eight and a half for nine going to play kazy have no problems with that ownership there but if you’re shooting for the moon I do think Carson young makes a lot of sense have a first- round leader bet on him tomorrow going to play him in large field contest fine betting him up into that top 10 sort of range if you really want to get aggressive with it but uh for everybody who made it through the entire hour here we appreciate you tuning in Nick and I will continue to try to get back to this show more on a weekly basis Joel I appreciate you filling in for Nick this week tell everybody where they can find you talk a little bit again if you want about our PJ DraftCast show and then I’ll take us out here that’s it you find us on Tuesday nights at 900 PM Eastern on the draft cast Spencer myself and David bileski we do a draft the audience can can participate in the draft I know Zack Jeffers is in the chat here I think a few of you are uh tune in to that show as well so that’s where you’ll find me um the show is a lot of fun don’t for don’t tune in next week we’ll Crown a winner we’ll draft again for that tournament uh and on Twitter I’m not always around but if you want to find some of my posts I’m at draftmaster Flex yeah as Joel said you can find him on Twitter at draftmaster Flex I am at tof sports if you have any questions about the week from any perspective you can feel free to reach out to us at one of those handles you can also contact Nick and I at better golf pod and as I said at the beginning use the code bgp to get your match bonus over on Underdog the site is buzzing with different sports that you can play weekly when diving into their season long best ball drafts get into that for football if you haven’t done so already they also have pick them contests that you can take on remember Underdog has everything you need to gain action for the week for any sport that you want to be on thanks again for all the support for everyone who does tune in to the show with Nick and I as I said we will try to be back here more frequently but until then good luck this week let’s try to win some money and we will see you guys back here again very shortly
