John Deere Classic + BMW International Open 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast

Episode 315 – Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, Paul Williams @GolfBetting and Barry O’Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf discuss their selections for this week’s John Deere Classic + BMW International Open. #johndeereclassic #tpcdeererun #seppstraka #jordanspieth #bmwinternationalopen #golfbetting #golfbettingtips #pgatour #DFS #Golf #fantasygolf #PGA #OneAndDone #draftkings #underdogfantasy #fantasygolfpicks

John Deere Classic + BMW International Open 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast
By Steve Bamford

SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
01:22 Andy from Wisconsin Listener Review
02:50 T2 Mania at the Rocket Classic
20:53 BMW International Open Tips Start
41:42 John Deere Classic Tips Start

Golf Betting System Website: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/

Steve’s John Deere Classic Betting Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/john-deere-classic-tips/

Paul’s BMW International Open Betting Preview:
https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/bmw-international-open-tips-2024/

Steve Bamford X: @Bamfordgolf Paul Williams X: @GolfBetting Barry O’Hanrahan X: @AGoodTalkGolf

Golf Betting System Podcast: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/id1234973013
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Oo0Ivfnq4QQPch9SlRP5V Podbean: https://golfbettingsystem.podbean.com/
Podcast Addict: https://podcastaddict.com/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/2197395
Audioboom: https://audioboom.com/channels/4990651 Deezer: https://www.deezer.com/en/show/3353472

This podcast is for listeners of 18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit GambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.

if you li bet on golf but everyone that you back misses the cut get some experts [Music] involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system podcast greetings and welcome to the golf bank system podcast it’s episode 315 this is our 2024 John Deere classic and BMW International open tips podcast bario hanran and Paul Williams join me Steve Bamford to discuss our selection for this week’s PGA and DP World Tour action good morning gentlemen morning guys morning guys visit our world famous golf betting system website where we have in-depth betting previews for both events we’ve got Strokes gain rankings for both form stats plus of course new and old predictor models for the John Deere and the BMW International all of that content is completely free of charge there is no payall on X you can follow us Barry is at a good talk golf Paul at golf betting I am at Bamford golf subscribe to the Steve Bamford golf YouTube channel where this podcast is available now you guys as listeners power this podcast so we need your five star reviews on app apple as ever for those of you who leave a review I will read them out the star of the future show leave you know and where you are in the review keep them coming I tell you what I’m going to do I’m going to put a request out there as well UK and Ireland Scotland let’s have some home five-star reviews please to help our North American friends who are delivering them in drow right A+ golf betting content five stars is the title of this particular review these gents deliver week in week out with superb golf betting content breaking down courses Trends weather player course fit amongst other factors it helps me find Winners throughout the PGA season just hit Bryson at the US Open and looking forward to a few more heading into the FedEx Cup playoffs cheers fellas that is from Andy and Andy is in Wisconsin thank you Andy for that lovely brilliant thanks Andy and well done for picking Bry up uh last time out that was a lovely little pick profiting off of Rory’s tears how could you Andy on a course where I said driving accuracy was really important this is it I think a lot of people listen to our comments and go sort of 180 yeah they’re saying length this week let’s keep it short and accurate sorts we need how did we get on last week Lads go on sorry Baron but between all of us how did we do last week well this is I was going to say I’m going to retitle this podcast the second place podcast now last week was literally taking the Michael who’s going to talk you through it cuz I I get too frustrated to well not really it’s beyond a joke now but anyway Cam Davis clearly won 70 to1 Monday prices available uh we then had between us let let’s go let’s do the round I had T2 Davis Thompson at 33 to1 over to you Paul don’t have to Steve um yeah who did you have i’ I’d stuck with aave batia after 22 to1 22 to1 Yeah Yeah finished well well you don’t need say that should we yeah go on Barry what who did you have I had Aaron Ry and I don’t know if I mentioned him on the podb but I also backed m mie before the tournament and on Sunday morning topped him up at 20s on the exchange thinking I’ve got you know good good chance and he makes a double on a par five they made a whole bunch of birdies after that so uh but bogie 18 um and Ry shot 72 on Sunday it’s a bit of a bummer so we we had the next four outside of Cam Davis between the three of us that to be fair I I think that is a record for us I mean we’re good at second place finishes but getting four of them in one tournament that’s amazing stuff just a pepper that second place finish Let’s uh let I know Paul needs to get this off this chest it’s this is like um I suppose it’s like therapy isn’t it you know if you can afford yourself a psychological coach psych psychologist this is this is our way of getting things off off your chest so Paul take us through the final green with AE on 18 I think I might need a therapist if I do that I frustrating isn’t it because you you you watch a player get in play some fantastic golf as well actually CU he didn’t make a bogey for the first four uh three days and uh yeah right in the mix just tightened up a little bit um didn’t make a didn’t make a birdie after what the eth I think it was and just kept paring but I it looked to me like the body language was still good you know he was still smiling he was still um still approaching it positively I I think actually I know the 18th was the 18th the 18th was a tough hole I think it was the fact that he didn’t make the birdie on the 17 that was the um the pivotal point because he just had to get up and down from the bunker not easy I know but still left himself a decent chance to to make Birdie on 17 missed that and then um yeah what was he 31 32 ft away something like that on the green so 30 odd feet to win the tournament and and it’s just one of those parts that just Lee westes just doesn’t doesn’t remotely get close to making the hole and you know and then he got a knee knocker left and the rest is history it’s literally just handed this ornament to Cam Davis no I like that I can simplify with you guys because you you you know ultimately we’ve all ended up in the same in place um and and Barry I thought Aaron Ry played really well for a lot of that tournament as well there’s there’s some really nice stuff out of that but yeah it was a bit underwhelming at the end there having having having watched the England football match and uh the exhilaration eventually of that to of that match and then to get bang back down to earth after that with with the golf was a little little frustrating but there you go that’s the way it goes isn’t it well no hopefully it won’t hopefully that’s not the way it goes uh we could do it uh converting these seconds into firsts on the plus side it is good that you’re getting players up there with a chance to win so you just have to put yourself in a position to for things to go your way at the right time I can remember Landing igala last September at the 14 in it and then from that point all the way through to the RSM I never got sniff you’re literally tuning in on a Sunday and your best players t19 about 19 shots back that includ and that’s one of the bests you put on on Sunday [Laughter] morning yeah what happened in Europe po it was a leaderboard of names that a lot of them meant very little to me it seemed a bit of a strange leaderboard at the top strange it was absolute Peak DP World Tour on a Sunday it was absolute Madness bear in mind um Tom Tom mckibbin he went out three full hours before the leaders posted 10 under shot six under really good uh really good score but 10 under was leading so you know he was um you know wasn’t expected to get anywhere near the final total um I’ve seen quoted that he was 500 to1 when he posted his um 10 under total so you got got Shaban K you got anwan Rosner you got Marcel CM all out there ahead of him at that point by two or three shots on of them so you know you never expected McKibben to get anywhere close and then Sunday a DP World Tour does what Sunday DP B saw does and um the players just came back to the field further and further and further and that price my kibin was just constantly dropping you know down to hundreds of one down to single figures and in the end Marcel CM had to make a 20 odd footer on the last hole just to make the playoff otherwise McKibben wins as everyone else has just Fallen away what a p wasn’t look I you know I wasn’t anywhere close to CM but um the passion that guy’s got is just incredible um I love to watch him but yeah incredible PT Barry wasn’t it and then uh then wins the playoff it was um yeah for entertainment if if you if you could go into the DP World Tour watch it on a Sunday with no vested interest it the entertainment value is just incredible um when you’ve got players um in and around the mix and ultimately I had manisero finished to shot out the places so that was yeah disappointing but he wasn’t really um threatening for the uh for anything substantial anyway so that was uh you know I could enjoy it in that respect but uh yeah that was I I I think had McKibben won then uh then that would have been a whole new level for the DP World Tour or Sunday Marshall CM he’s only just reappeared on tour hasn’t he was he injured at the start of the year because it was there was months of no activity at all yeah yeah there was um I forget exactly what the injury was but there was something I he’s one of these that’s just had that um career Resurgence and you know found the willing found the winning um method again once again and uh yeah that that’s the sixth title if you remember he was right in the race right down to the DP World Tour Championship last year for a top 10 spot and going over to the PJ tour and just came up short by spot or two y yeah well keeps playing like that or keeps winning then uh and there’s got there’s something to be said for having that winning ability that winning mentality to actually go out there make the part on the on the last Force the playoff and then just to convert it’s um you know there there’s not many at that level who have that winning Instinct and that’s why you get so many of these these these Sundays where it is as we said yesterday or last week Barry it’s just that hot potato isn’t it um he’s he’s brilliant you’re right though he’s brilliant to watch he’s really engaging to watch the passion comes through the screen and you’re rooting for him and even though I wanted Tom McKibbon to win I also you know was you know wanted Marcel see him to win so I mean McKibben got a you know great surprise that he actually had a chance to win um and then you know I suppose a really great second prize that he’s got his spot on the Open Championship so yeah Happy Days yeah absolutely given where he was when he finished his round I expect he had no clue that he’d actually make it to a playoff so as you say ultimately it was it was a bonus to get to get that chance I mean hit two great shots in the playoff pretty good putt just a little bit low and somebody makes a birdie on top you’re like okay fair enough got a free shot at a win so yeah on to the next one yeah you know he didn’t lose that CM won it and that’s uh that’s the way it goes sometimes I think mckibbin’s another one that we need to look out for for Ryder Cup next year he’s definitely in that group of players that you could see making a top 12 birth just developing very nicely maturing nicely McKibben he also Ian he’s he made the cut on the number this week so he went went a bit crazy scoring on the weekend so I think he’s got to want to keep an eye on like if he’s Catching Fire he can just really take off in a tournament so yeah with um Cam Davis and AE btia uh being right at the sharp end this week on the PJ too I just thought I’d take you through the President’s Cup standings as we are getting pretty close I believe it’s BMW Championship where all of this will get decided international team Matt Su Tom Kim Jason day sun Jim benan minwu Lee breaks into the top six now top six both International and American get automatic spot so minw Le has grasped the last inter the last automatic spot Taylor at seven Connor eight Cam Davis has vaulted nine spots to get into ninth position Adam hadwin at 10 Christian Baden hoot at 11 who I’m surprised he not playing the John Deere classic but there you go he must be coming straight over for the Scottish open number 12 sewu Kim outside of those spots pendrith gleo Adam Scott who’s going to need a pick at this at 15th and Ryan Fox elck van royan and McKenzie Hughes go across to the Americans top six look after themselves really down to igala fena at seven Homer 8 Harmon 9 a has jumped three spots into 10th Kirk 11 badley out for uh Sam uh Russell Henley at 12 and then we’ve got Burns outside ride a cuper Justin Thomas outside ride a cuper Tom hogi Keegan Bradley and I’m still scrolling and Jordan SPI is 24th wow so at the moment you need SP with a Ki spe’s going to need a pick uh JT well he seems to need a pick all the time saying that I think he got a half decent finish at last time the Travelers s Burns a ride a cers from last year that are all going to need picks to get into the American team Jim furck is the captain this year be interesting to know if Jim furick goes around the circuit having staying in the same houses as JT and Jordan SP as Zach apply did didn’t he yeah yeah didn’t we didn’t know any of that until it all came out in full swing did we yeah they were sitting there having spaghetti after at the end of the day going oh you could have pick me Zach yeah a bit of a laugh and a joke am I in Zach I don’t think Jim’s going to be in that school of thought on the bases clearly he doesn’t play PJ too anymore uh top 10 last week on TIA Green in the rocket mortgage Chan Kim at one might be a name toh look at he tied with Cameron young Davis Thompson at three minw Le four Patrick Fishburn at five big hitting driver of the golf ball Cam Davis six Neil Shipley seven talented youngster that’s just turned Pro Eric Cole 8 Axe n Carl Yuan at 10 uh cam young again right In the Heat of the battle shot his 59 another one on that 59 list that didn’t convert the week after he didn’t he didn’t do a great he didn’t do a great deal on Sunday did he cam young playing second last group I I think you can see um why he doesn’t win it is the the body language was just really poor through that back well the back nine but the final round um cracked his driver shaft as well which didn’t help but that was through petulant and I think you know you got to take a step back with all of that and be if you if you’re going to have that winning mentality you’ve got to be able to you know brush those adversities aside and just get on with it I you look at Cam Davis he made a bogey on the par five um and you know for full intents and purposes that should have taken him out of the title or the title race and he still wins the tournament still finds a way to to to get over the line and still still makes the the puts or plays the shots after that uh you know after that bogey to to put himself in position cam no again massive opportunity to win the tournament and um it’s just it’s just not right between the ears in that respect so I wonder whether the breaking of the driver shaft out of frustration could be his little trigger moment to to just do that figure out that one or two% extra that he needs or it could be a half a percent at this stage what you know n picking over that but just it could be that little thing that little Catalyst that he needs yeah maybe maybe maybe someone takes him to one side and has that has that word with him or has that word with him himself and moves on at some point the guy is too talented not to um to find a solution find a way to do it but the longer the more frustrating it gets that pressure cooker is building which manifested itself in a driver shaft being BR you know snapped in the middle of the final round so yeah I think that’s I think that could be a watch this space for the next couple of week you know a few weeks or may you know maybe in like three four five six weeks when if he goes and talks to another sports psychologist or some Guru or something just to get that little extra tweak maybe it could be like I kind of want it to happen because if he figures it out he could go and rip off three or four tournaments pretty quickly he’s like he’s that good when he gets going on te to Green yep I would we’ve seen him right in there you know in Elite company in major championships he’s he’s got that kind of ultimate ability but he’s just not got the full package right now not yet anyway you know how he’ll win he’ll do a Russell Henley from the end of last year he he’ll literally go mad on a Saturday and build up an nine shot lead yeah and win that way or he’ll shoot like a 61 from the from the 20th last group out on a Sunday and one and it’ll be like a Tom McKibben type scenario from Sund and will the others actually get to that win in total that’s how it is but trying to pick what tournament that is like a living nightmare is it I tell you what I’m going to do for the listeners I’m going to put a link through from the DP Welter website to the Genesis Scottish open entry list for next week because as you would expect co-sanctioned with the PGA it’s a rather good field I’ll take you through some of the big names hovland maroy next in line for some reason Lucas Glover Homer Harmon Clark Fitzpatrick Fleetwood Fowler Xander Sun Jim Connors sewu Kim Taylor Moore Kara carwa Jordan SPI sep strucker sep strucker sah tala ludvig and we’ve got Hideki Matsuyama so yeah it just keeps going and going so it’s a cracking field of course Robert McIntyre also playing I will put a link into that field if you want to have a glimpse right we’re going to mix it up Paul let’s go across to the BMW International open which I thought was a particularly good field this week I think it’s a great field clearly BMW throwing some sh throwing some euros at it and pulling over some decent players for this this event this week over in Munich so away we go yeah yeah no no I’d agree it’s um it’s certainly not a hum drum kind of affir over on the DP world and you do get this don’t you as we start to Edge towards the um the Open Championship in fact we’re not just edging towards it are we as you say it’s the Scottish open next week so um some some of the big names will be starting to fly into the the area the region over the next few days anyway but yeah BMW International open back to Germany um back to a more familiar track uh in Munich thankfully compared to last week new hybrid um Affair that we uh contended with Patrick Reeds the favorite this week 16 to1 generally uh Ryan Fox 18 to1 burnt vburger 22 to1 Kon Nakajima 28 Thomas Peters 28 Jordan Smith 28 to1 what does Jordan Smith need to do to be dropping out of that list is 16 minut Cuts in a row we say this every every third week I John Smith’s 18 or 22 to one a major in it 20 to one yeah they just then not price him in that bracket missed a cut last week still 28 to1 at 33 to1 by those players uh it the market was shaken up a little bit yesterday because RMS Huard was in there as the um either co- favorite or second favorite depending where you were looking um and he pulled out or was removed from the entry list quite early on Monday afternoon so that uh impacted the uh the market I’m sure Steve’s got a similar kind of uh scenario to run through when we do the John de but yes so they did did have to reform the market anyway that’s where we sit right now uh boil Sports as ever eight places each way is standard and we getting some good price and each way combinations from both bet 365 and also bet Fred this week who uh as ever offering their eight Place each way markets as well as their Standard Market so do take a look at those guys this week now in terms of the course we’re going to Gulf Club mention I can read um we’ve been here for the last four renewals if you’re flicking through if you’re working through the stats Pages this week then I’ve marked on there there’s a little side note to tell you which years weren’t played on this course in general it has been here but there are um I think there are four years going back to 2002 where it was um played over in Cologne or C um instead but H yeah MCH and I can read 7,347 yards slightly extended par 72 this year four mid-range par fivs a couple of short par fours as well it doesn’t play particularly long even though it is 7,350 yards generous Fairways and relatively new slick bent grass greens as well it does set up for attacking good scoring golf winner conditions suit and I think we should get those suitable conditions for scoring this week uh looking at the forecast we’ve got rain likely on Wednesday uh that should soften the course nicely and then we got sunshine and relatively light winds all the way through till Sunday we might get a little bit of rain overnight Saturday night and then into Sunday so again it could be just lights out scoring on Sunday as well so the call should be nice and receptive should be scorable um should be a lot of birdies and Eagles on those par FS as well up for grabs I think so as I said we’ve been playing here since 2019 um exclusively the winners since 2019 Andrea Pavan 100 to1 in 2019 no event in 2020 for Fairly obvious reasons Victor holand 13 to2 in 2021 howong Le 66 to1 we’re on howong at the year before last 66 is then Tristan Lawrence won at 100 to one last year so aside from Victor some juicy prices coming out of this event and this course uh the winning scores Lawrence was 13 under I mean that was a particularly tough year um there was a bit of wind around um for a couple of days as well which kept a lid on the scoring they can tuck the they I mean they can tuck the pins away here they can find places for the pins to make it make make scoring a little tougher but if you look at howong Lee he was 22 under there was there was a playoff there with Thomas Peters um so the the pair got to 22 under the year before and personally I’d expect us to get a little bit closer to howong Le’s winning total this year than Tristan Lawrence’s so maybe not all the way to 22s but I can see someone getting 18 19 maybe 20 under to win the tournament this week again it does depend how much they t the pins away but for me if it’s soft and calm then this should be a it should be a pretty scorable course I think now if you try and dig through the bones of those winners um you know Victor hin howong Lee just shows you instantly there’s some uh some variance in the ways that things can be done Andrea Pavan and hland they both went down the greens in regulation route hit lots of greens played well from T to Green pavam was second for green hit and hland was 10th howong Lee and and Tristan Lawrence as well it was much more about the putter with those two in terms of their raw stats so I don’t think there’s a there’s not really like a set template here as to what you’ll need to do to to win the tournament what you will need to do and and the one factor that does shine through is you’ve got to score well on these par fives there’s no it’s just a non-negotiable you’ve got to be making birdie or the odd Eagle pretty much every time you step up on a par five hit hland was 11 under Hong Lee was 12 under Lawrence was 11 under for the par fives Adrian [ __ ] who was third last time out he birded 14 of the 16 attempts at the par fivs over the course of the uh course of the four days Ryan Fox finished third um year year or two before that he finished 17 under for 16 pass five holes so he just absolutely butchered those those par fives so that’s you’ve got to do that you’ve got to go out there and attack the par fivs they are attackable you got to hit the Fairway and then you can make birdie eagle simple as that in terms of Strokes gained and we’ve we have got Strokes gain numbers as Steve said right at the top of the show and for the P for the last four years actually so some some good numbers building up for this event Tia green sticks out I mean last year Sixth and second um was how the top two finished for Strokes gain T to Green in 2022 it was first and second so the top two performance Strokes gain T to Green were the top two who made it through to the playoffs so that’s a good stat to start with Strokes game putting to that’s really consistent with our winners here pavam was seventh hin was first howong Lee was 12th which um you’d expect howong to probably be a little bit higher than that but that’s where he was and Tristan Lawrence was 10th so top 12 performance in terms of strikes game putting decent strikes gain seed of green you’ve got a combination there that could be competitive I think other than that if you dig through the current form coming in you kind of get this from the winning prices winning the current form of the winners isn’t great for the last five winners actually hadn’t even played the weekend on the last start three of them missed the cut and hland had withdrawn so there’s um there’s not much to go there in terms of um a very immediate form um and in terms of the for the last four winners Miss cut wbut debut 36th for Tristan Lawrence’s one and only attempt at this course before so you’re not going to find many clues in the combination stats spreadsheet this week I don’t think but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t look at it so do do go through and have a have a flick through if it if it interests you anyway I’ll back four this week I’ll R off R and then I’ll bring you boys in see where you are um after arasmus pulled out as I say the market took a took a bit of a bit of a hit um and most of the market leaders that got a bit of a haircut price-wise so I it kind of put me off not that I was particularly interested in the players at the top anyway but um it it did further put me off those uh those players the one the first one that does interest me is the defending Champion Tristan Lawrence now I back to yday at 28 to1 as of right now there’s um the market settled a little bit there is 35 to one available with just standard each way places and you can get up to 33 to1 with eight places each way which is how I backed him but clearly I took a an inferior price yesterday which is a little galing but what can you do you know in terms of Defending Champions we’ve talked about it before um you’ve got this contention between whether they they’re going to be put off a guess with the media attention and the other obligations of a defending Champion or the flip side is that you know this guy can uh can perform and and win on this particular course I’ve gone through the stats he ticks an awful lot of boxes this week Tristan Lawrence I had to look back through as well what he’d done when he defended this is the fourth time that he’ll be defending a title at this level um 33rd 47th and then 10th last time he defended at the South African open so he’s improving no disasters there some good rounds within those performances as well I think he takes it relatively seriously it seems to be getting his head around it and since that 10th Place finish at the South African open he’s come close on three occasions to winning yet another DP World Tour title second to Dubai at the Invitational second at the Johnson workware open and then second last time the to visited Germany at the European open last month so that makes it first second for his last two visits to German soil seems to like it around here going back to last year he came here with no top 10 in the season at all um understandably a shorter price this week but he’s in much much better Nick 10th on tour for par five scoring first for strokes game putting for the season to date for the entire DB World Tour I couldn’t not go there with Tristan um he ticks absolutely everything for me so uh yeah as I say you can get up to 35 to1 out there right now 28 to1 is the number that’s on my um preview and that’s what um I will stick with for this week Callum Hill is my second pick 50 to1 available right now he missed the cut last week um and that was after a short break but I I guess we can put that down to a little bit of rust as he was playing some really solid Progressive golf before that uh his previous five finishes 56th in Japan 35th in China 15th at the sudell open 13th in Germany at the European open and second at the V mix so some good Progressive finishes um hadn’t the be if there hadn’t been that break for the US Open then perhaps he’d have uh he’ have gone through and secured that second DP World Tour win he certainly looked like he was going in that right direction 17th and 10th when he’s played the two at the course here on two occasions he was 13th at Green Eagle last month as I said he topped Strokes game putting there when we went to Germany at the start of June so and putting well in fact n for strokes game putting for the season top 20 for par five performance for the season again another one who ticks lots of boxes for me then two longer shots Joe Dean and we’ve talked about Joe Dean over the last podcast or two 100 to one available out there right now one of these really positive stories that have come out of the 2024 season um he’d been playing over on the Euro Pro Tour but managed to get his uh card his DP well card via Q school so um had you know was entitled to play this year didn’t tear up until Qatar because um he’d been working as a Morrison’s delivery driver and couldn’t quite get the funds together to to travel to some of these farflung events um Mr cutting Kar but uh but then was second in Kenya banked 200,000 for his finish there and you know fair play to him that’s freed him up now to can pursue his dream and he seems to be grabbing it with both hands fifth at the sudell open runner up um he was in that playoff which gido won for us over in the Netherlands a few weeks back so he’s getting closer and closer looking at his game seems to have the power and the control to compete here I think he can get a long way out the the fairways and on the fairways to attack these par fives and when he’s um when he’s played well um it’s invariably combined with um B grass greens and decent putting performances he been he’s been top three for strokes game putting twice on B grass greens over the last few weeks and months so seems to be a combination there that could work nicely for this week I think certainly worth taking a chance on I think Joe de at 100 to1 and also worth taking a chance on David lore who I backed at 125 to1 with eight places um there is a little bit of 150s again if you want to take the bul standard I’ve gone down the eight Place route with uh 125 to1 as the price now the reason for this I look back and um you know I like a trend gido he won the KLM open um and then went back to Italy next week as the uh as the champion of course um you know to a hero’s welcome marel CM was won last week in Italy this week we’re playing in Germany so he’s gone back home with a with a trophy in his hand we got the Scottish open next week so perhaps it’s a Scott who pops up for us this week and uh and returns home with a trophy now it is borderline whether um David L will actually get into the field next week I think right now as it stands he’s the fifth alternate so these fields do chop and change and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does just sneak in but if he wins the tournament he’s in if he wins this week he’s in the tournament so I’m sure he’s going to be extra motivated to go out and make sure that he’s playing in his home Scottish open next week and there’s been there’s been a few signs that he’s improving um Paul starts at 2024 I mean that’s why you’re getting the price on him but I’m seeing three top 20s in his last five starts um Strokes game positive for each of his last six starts top 10 Strokes game TAA green at the Volvo mixed It’s seems to be starting to come together in terms of his overall game and he’s got a good record in Germany a couple of top seven finishes um over at the Porsche or the European open as it is now over the years I think David law could be surprise package he could also be a fast starter um he’s one of those players that I’d like to keep an eye out for first round lead and should he get a nice early tea time that could also be a punt on social media on Wednesday morning we shall see but yeah so laws in um Joe Dean Callum Hill and Tristan Lawrence my four Barry you got one for this week um yeah I’m I’m I’m a bit broken by European tour betting or DP World Tour betting it’s the the Hot Potato I’m broken from X on Sunday yeah the Hot Potato thing just uh does what really is strange um I should also all anytime I pick anybody from the DP World Tour should come with a massive warning there’s a great chance they will be dust after six holes uh I’ve got a note I’ve got a couple of notes on my phone just on players I want to follow and a couple of them are like big hitters off the tea so Nicholas norgard uh last time he played here in Germany was a few weeks back finished fourth and then the week after in the Su finished second so those kind of the last couple of courses they played maybe just weren’t his uh cup of tea so back to so back to um slightly longer courses where he can open the shoulders and that rip so give him give him a punt he’s R 40 to one in places just need to find the right uh combo and he’s a cracking driver of the golf ball that guy yeah yeah yeah big time so and if that if that’s on this week you know he can have a quite a few wedges and make those par FES extremely short and then another one who’s a bit of a hitter is um Marco pen or pangi I’m not sure how to pronounce this yeah is he one of the longest out there isn’t it yeah so there’s a theme this week there so this is the first time playing this event but again if he led Strokes gained off the tea uh last week in Italy on a course where you know it’s little bit little bit tighter than this so that if he can bring that kind of accuracy and length to Munich this week he’ll give himself plenty of looks MH yeah like it I I can’t can’t dispute your logic there because um if you can find the fairways and a long way down here then you are going to give yourself an awful lot of chances so uh yeah Nicholas norgard’s an interesting one we’ll see what about you Steve I’m saying Martin kimer he’s ninth in The Strokes gained rankings for this golf course and we’ve seen with kimer definite improvements this season both on live showed up at the US Open for a couple of rounds there’s there’s definitely green shoots of and just the way he interviews now he’s he’s talking very very positively now literally as we’re recording this I was going to I was going to press the 80 to1 button on lad Brooks but that’s now disappeared so I’m going to have to take 80 to1 six places with the unibet on Martin kimer and I’m going to follow you in on Joe Dean 80 to one I’ve got bet 3658 places each way by their each way extra facility good talented player that Jo Dean guy from what I’ve seen the limited amount I’ve seen I know that you um rate him very highly yeah looks like a really decent Prospect and doesn’t seem to be overall with the situation either so um yeah know see how he goes I might even put a couple of points of my Patrick cantlay WD money on norgard just to really uh hit hit Barry in the solar plexus for a second place finish on noral I don’t need any help and having players my bets go bad into the GP World Tour but I’m glad to have you on board Steve he’s logical isn’t he yeah what do you think the winning score be just kind of I I think if you get to tweny I think you’re going to be um very much either winning or kind of playoff territory I I don’t think it’ll get quite as deep as um as it did with howong Lee and Thomas Peters that was 22 but yeah I I think you’re going to see the leaders 18 19 20 on Sunday afternoon and whoever manages to uh hold their nerve and good luck trying to work that one out yeah interesting do we talk John de classic lights out golf continues on in the American scene TPC dear run this is track to country 7,289 yards P 71 uh B grass greens pure no power uh the winners list here it’s just like sep ster last year JT the postman Poston we’ve got Paul well we’ve got friend of the podcast haven’t we after last year Lucas Glover won in 2021 clearly his misses must be happy with the money he made last year because he’s uh he’s taking his foot off the throttle this year then you’ve got the randomness of frittelli and Michael Kim previous years and Bryon D Shambo in 2017 I believe this was D shambo’s first ever PJ to a victory Ryan Moore Jordan spe Brian Harmon Jordan SP Zack Johnson Steve Stricker Steve Stricker Steve Stricker if you want to go all the way back to 2010 some good players in there uh it’s always screamed to me plotter you know when you’ve got Steve Stricker three times Zack Johnson Jordan speed twice and that was back in the time when Jordan was pretty neat and tidy in an amazing short game you’ve got open Champion Brian Harmon in there as well plotter great patter dambo kind of throws that into the weeds but if you remember dambo in 2017 wasn’t dish Amo of 2021 vintage when he was like 19 Stone and had arms and arms sort of with size of thighs um he back then he was quite wiy and a very sort of decent classical old style Golf Course player even in his young days but to me I mean Lucas Glover is the same poster none of these guys are big hitters of the golf ball they’re more on the straight side they’re more on the plotting kind of side and that’s where I’ve gotten with this in terms of the players that I wanted to back it’s it’s basically a wedge Fest 150 yards and in F players that have got excellent proximity you will get the Odd Chris gotter up or Patrick Rogers that have contended here guys that hit hit long Johnny Vegas but in the main eventually it’s won by someone with a half decent putter on the week you know and that’s it’s not exactly rocket science is it when when you’re trying to shoot 22 under par shooting 22 under par with a negative Strokes gained on the greens tends to be the only person of the Modern Vintage that could get anywhere near that would be Scotty Sheffer so uh yeah plotters away for me the other thing that I take from this is just the winning prices we had last year SEP with a with two PS strucker at 50 to one J the postman Poston at 50 to1 and Lucas Glover at 55 to1 frittelli was 90 to1 and then we’re out to the Wild and wacky Michael Kim at 300 to1 Bryson dambo 50 to1 so in a world where we’re not getting anyone between 22 to1 and 50 to and sorry and 50 to1 winning prices it’s 50 to1 and above um I think focusing on some decent players around that Mark isn’t a bad strategy I did go for Patrick canl put the uh preview out there and within two minutes PGA Tour Communications were Tweeting or posting that he had withdrawn so K he does not play which clearly put everyone into a complete Funk including Paul who had to rebuild our Victor and blah blah blah blah blah uh I thought he’d have been perfect for this place and he doesn’t appear now that’s likely to change I would suspect he doesn’t appear in the Scottish open list but you get the feeling he might be jumping on the same private jet as Xander and going across to Renaissance next week instead of playing the John Deere classic why he entered the John Deere classic if he was never going to play who knows how these players um think half the time so actually him wiping me out well not wiping me out but saving me a few points I’m still half out there if one of you guys comes up with a player that you super super fancy and it and it makes sense I might actually uh write a little tip and use some of my cantlay money on that particular player I have got no one sub 50 to1 so if you guys have please take the floor not for me yeah I’m taking one of the favorites um I could hang on to Aaron Ry not be price proud just backed him a few times gu playing well can make birdies pters rolling nicely got good confidence going into this week off we go um so I mean we were talking about this a little just before the Pod and you said that he had his previous um history of going well the week before before he clicked was it the Scottish open Steve he wasn’t the Scottish open in 2020 which I would presume was on closed golf courses it was later in the year yeah it was one of these that they rearranged post covid wasn’t it yeah conditions well the interesting point with that was and Barry’s spot on that when Aaron won that I would suspect it was very similar to what we would have this week because Aaron Ry at the Irish open in 2020 uh they played it in uh yeah late September he shot 65 7067 he was first round leader he was second after round one he was second after round uh two and three and eventually was pipped for the Victory and you can imagine what the I wouldn’t be surprised if one of us was on him out that Aaron Reich and never and then the week after goes to the Scottish open at Renaissance opens with a 70 which was only good enough for 39th and then 6970 and a closing 64 to snatch the Scottish open title interesting and the the one thing that jumped out to me Barry was the fact that at that Irish open he was top 20 for t to Green as you would expect he was good with his approach play but he was second for strokes game putting and now you you mentioned off Mike that he’s got a new putting coach would that be something you’ve come across well they mentioned on commentary that he’s working with someone new over the um over the weekend so yeah I I he he looked he looked quite positive with the poter and I think for the first three rounds combined it was something like fifth The Strokes game putting thereabouts so you know ended up 10 yeah something’s percolating with the putter which for a player like Aaron Ry who we know that the one area of his game that often isn’t the best is with the flat stick then that does make him an interesting Prospect If he if he starts to improve in that respect as bar said we’ve been down this road a lot of times don’t you and you get near misses and then you get to a price and you go I can’t I can’t back out and R that Pryce and what happens it’d be like Ricky fower last year at 14 to1 when he finally crawled over the lot yeah I think ry’s a very good choice I’m going to have to dwell on that you just actually look in America he’s had a third in Canada that was last year he also finished 14th in Canada this year uh and he had a ninth and clearly a second last week at the rocket mortgage up in Detroit so clearly give him some bent grass give him some Parkland golf courses with the blue grass rough and all of the stuff that he’s used to in Europe on a shorter golf course and Ry that’s where he’s delivered in the state so far so he’s temped um talking of Team NOA I shouldn’t really say that about Aaron Ry but traditionally he has been team now I’ve put a point each way at 110 to1 on Joel Damon this week I must be mad but he’s he’s when you look at his numbers and you look at how he’s playing and you look at he’s percolating you know you’re seeing him in a lot more later groups on Saturdays and Sundays and yeah he disappears a bit and he and he you know like la like yesterday uh T mon Sunday rather he shot negative 4.67 Strokes on the greens on Sunday but actually at the start of the week he was 0.1.5 positive .9 and his te to Green game is getting back to Epic Joel Damon just hitting tons of Fairways tons of greens good approach play he’s always been a the sort that on a shorter course can score low totals so I just thought 110 to one on Joel Damon which what I grabbed was a decent bet second here 2019 I believe uh yeah yeah yeah I think he’s every other performance here was a Mis cut but that particular week he’d finished fifth the week before at Green Brier where he couldn’t PK for toffee and then he came here and all of a sudden he gained two strokes on the greens that’s all he needs with with that t to Green game if he’s making half a stroke to a stroke per round on the greens he’s going to be right at the top of the leaderboard so I’m on Damon yep now I’ve got to agree I think I think you’re on him as well Barry on him yeah I can’t I can’t um avoid Joel when he’s there so I’m in yeah I this when I look through the stats um on a Monday um there’s very few categories that Scotty Sheffer doesn’t Dominate and the one that always sticks out to me or has done this season is the um proximity to Hal because that’s just been a constant back and forth between Joel Damon and Scotty Sheffer and right now Joel Damon sits at the top at the very top of that statistic for the season today so if you’re you’re beating Scotty Sheffer in terms of your proximity to the hole for the entire season you’re doing something right with your approach play ninth for grins in regulation for the season 19th for strokes G approach um he’s uh yeah must be 7443r for pudding yeah is it that bad is it well it was on Sunday but actually it’s if you look to you I sat I sat on Friday and watched him make a few decent putts but just you know when it gets to that he’s just reaiming himself to being at the top end of leaderboards again so you you always take that risk with with Joel don’t you but all it needs is a half decent week for 72 holes with the Putter and he’s going to be right there at something and I just think the agronomy and the length of this golf course and its plotters nature and as puls it the fact that proximity means something here be in mind I mean I’m going all the way back to 2010 these are traditional skill averages of the winners here within those that have made the cut driving distance 29th driving accuracy 24th so that actually means something far more than driving distance does Greens in R 14th proximity to Hole 18th scrambling 15th PS G of course as you would expect it’s a birdie Fest 10th but there you go proximity to Ho some weeks we look at that statistic and it’s in the 4S so it actually mean something this week I mean uh sep Striker last year when he won was 12th for proximity to H Lucas Glover the two years before that ninth so yeah I get that and when you looking at Lucas Glover winning this I mean what’s the difference between Lucas Glover and Joe Damon when you look at their raw game stati St istics oh yeah y they’re pretty much the same player aren’t they mhm just that Joe’s a bit more popular on um on the course although hasn’t got as much money banked as Lucas for his wife at this point um I went for Eric Cole as well at 50 to1 top 10 last week had a phenomenal 2023 you know was it literally every tournament you tune in and Eric Cole would be near the top of the leader ball um the thing that I did notice from the end of last year the Autumn he went through a stretch of fourth at the 4 net he then went 35th the week I was on him at the Sanderson Farms amazingly enough and then when I wasn’t on him he went third second third so that’s four top four finishes in five week tournaments at the end of last year I think this is kind of Eric Cole territory short course scorable he can be an absolutely deplorable driver of the golf ball but recently the driving’s got a lot better he’s always been great from the Fairway and in so on the basis he was top 10 last week I thought Eric Cole at 50 to1 with William Hill eight places each way bearing in mind all of these prices were pre cantlay and Cam Davis WDS which as Paul will tell you put a huge dent in the market I’ve also gone Ben Griffin at 60 to1 with William Hill another plotter you look at Ben he’s from Carol from the Carolina area um lives down on S Simon’s Island in that gulfing commune down there the num the the the the the thing that got me with Ben was a few weeks ago when he was second to Robert McIntyre at the Canadian open now that Golf Course was treelined Shore 6,800 yards just the kind of place you can plot yourself around I get the feeling that Griffin having H that was impressed me that that week with Griffin he was in the final group with Robert and he was the one that was putting Robert under pressure and you had maroy on the charge you had Tom Kim on the charge Cory conus finished like a freight train when he knew he couldn’t win that kind and Griffin went nowhere just stayed around hung around took it to the last couple of holes with Robert McIntyre and that’s what I like about Griffin you just see him I think he’s making progress in terms of those small steps needed to actually take out your first PJ to a title and I think this course could really suit him where it isn’t so honorous and long off the tea cuz the driver his his worst part of his game but again like col from Fairway onwards Griffin great with the approaches very very strong P so I’ve gone for Ben Griffin at 60 to1 um I’m going to come over to you because I know for a fat Barry that you will be on this individual and he’s my last tip at this point so do you want to take us through Shamus power go well uh on a week that you need birdie Steve he’s sitting 145th on tour in birdie average so that really bodess great for us it all works from a crunch in the numbers perspective doesn’t it if yeah if you kind of squint your eyes a bit it really makes sense um sh I thought it was 45th I missed the 100 part yeah um no to canra that he’s sitting seventh in your top 25 in your top Strokes gained approach uh recent rankings so that’s very beneficial he has a bankass win on tour and just despite his terrible birdie average just like shocking uh he has the ability to and has shown plenty in his history of scoring really low in tournaments so yeah there’s a there’s a sweet spot there in price for Sheamus this week I was kind of expecting I thought was great I was expect him to be a bit shorter 25th 16th 8th and 13th here from five Owings so he gets on well with this place yeah I think sh Sheamus could pop up we’ve seen Sheamus in in he’s he’s another one he has he’s been in some very strong positions across a couple of leaderboards recently and then you know something I don’t know he just shoots a bad round at the wrong time or makes a mistake at the wrong time and just kind of goes backwards but actually I where I I’m trying to remember where it was he went out in the final group at the V bar and I think he had The Misfortune of Being lumped in with Keith Mitchell who who ke Keith went on that sort of eight over through the first nine holes when every man and his dog was had backed him that week power was in the same group he’s had this kind of situation where I think he’s actually playing better than his result suggest Sheamus pal he is the sort he is the sort that will actually string together a 21 under total so yes that’s where I’m at with Sheamus so I’ve got Damon power Griffin Eric Cole and I’m severely tempted to start putting my fingers on the keyboard and writing out a 20 to1 Aaron WR it so was interesting just again back to your Strokes gain total he is number one in your um rolling for strokes G total right yeah yeah he is yeah best in the field third T green and now last week you’re saying there Putters there I mean these are all just reasons that I’m giving myself to kind of take away the sting of having to not having to but betting him at 20 to1 I’d like him to be more but 20 times my money is a nice win the last two winners of this have been in the top eight for strokes gained current form arriving and they’ve all been as we heard at the start towards that 50 to1 Mark now Aaron Ry is not that he’s 20 to1 but Maverick mcneel at two we know what Maverick’s like is he ever going to win on the PJ tour it could be this week does like to shoot a 76 in round one and then play properly from that point you’ve got NE Neil Shipley at three well Shipley is an absolute bomber clearly I think this will be his second tournament as a professional he’s tied with Davis Thompson at three in my rankings Thompson again another big hitter Sam Stevens at five Sam Stevens I wouldn’t trust him on a Sunday at all and then you’re down to the likes of Luke Clanton another new player it’s just out of being an amateur Scott piery Jonathan Vegas he’s a bomber Ben Silverman jackob Bridgeman so of those top 10 I would take Aaron R every every day of the we if you’re looking at that Strokes going current form number so yeah Jordan speed’s not in there at all by the way I think Jordan Speed could be quite popular this week who are you on Paul um other than Joel Daman the only other one I’ve backed so far and um this is slightly Against the Grain but you have mentioned him is Chris gotter up 100 to one now I know you you kind of angle of attack here is more about um plotters gotr upts the complete opposite but um we’ve seen because he finished uh fourth here back in 2022 and if you you look back he he only just turned professional this was his fifth career PGA tour start so took to the course very very nicely um pretty much you know straight off the bat um when he was getting some grips with uh just life on the tour as it was and um yeah I you know I think given the way the markets thinned out particularly with canl gone um I wouldn’t be surprised to see some players in that kind of bracket you know hit hit the mark this week I think he can be competitive he’s been off the boil a bit since he won at Myrtle Beach um a few weeks ago but a few signs first which first time winners just disappear for a while absolutely yeah and then there’s just the last couple of outings they don’t scream at you when you look at his um finishes but um he shot a 65 in the second round at The Travelers which was much much better um and he was solid last week up until the final day and then shot 77 on Sunday which um pushed him down to the the 60s in terms of the finishing position but um you know a decent round there and he could have been looking at a top top 15 top 20 and that would have um you know that would have severely hampered his price for this week I think so yeah I I just take a chance in him 100 to one that was um that was the only other leaning I had I I’ve got to say I was a little underwhelmed with the um the market full stop and I that’s probably just me after looking at it after klay’s gone and seeing the prices just with a a sea of blue it always kind of um it puts me off a little bit in that respect yeah it’s never the strongest is it the John Deere classic it’s always in fact I was mightily surprised to see Patrick kley Su JM in the f H yeah now IM IM sticking by looks of it don’t forget they all catch the old private Charter from Illinois straight across to Scotland yeah yeah so I think a lot of them do it just because they basically get their travel to Scotland for free yeah go across with their buddies yeah go across with their with their their old boys on the old sit you know lie down beds on whatever flight they’ve charted so whatever playe but yes but I mean s JM he’s 12 one in in spots and you just think I do like sun Jan but 12 to1 for a guy that’s only ever won twice on the PGA tour it’s not filling me with enthusiasm but then I’m sitting here severely contemplating Aaron Riot 20 to1 who hasn’t won since 2020 so who am I to talk about value I’m surprised Paul you haven’t mentioned your old MAA Denny mcarthy but again it’s the price Steve I’m looking at it I’m thinking you know I want something a little bit juicing it to take a chance on Denny and it was him Maverick McNeely contemplated but I’m looking at the numbers and they just just don’t appeal that’s that’s just where I am with it the only player the only player who’s got a you know a decent player that’s got a half decent price is Jason day I’m seeing him at 33 to1 which in this field decent price is it but hasn’t yeah this is the point right are we done chaps I believe so you got any more up your sleeve Barry or we we is that us done no I’m good to go excellent well try not to hit the alcohol this week trying to erase Sunday’s bad memories chaps I hope your bets do go well this week yeah best of luck boys you too boys good luck to listeners what we got next week Paul of course we have the Genesis is Scottish open we’ve got the freshly Rec christened he says scrolling quickly down the screen Isco Championship on the PGA tour which I believe is the tournament they play at Keen Trace Golf Club I actually got the winner last year Vincent Norman I remember that so there must be something that I’ve tapped into there I can’t remember what it was but I I do think that Golf Course suits rather large or rather long golf rather large long hitters of the golf ball so we’ll have a look we’ll try and crack that one the Isco Championship next week with the Scottish open I hope your bets go well we’ll be back next week [Music] goodbye but everyone that you’re back misses the cut get some X but [Music] involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system podast