5 Longshots TO BET at John Deere Classic! | Golf Picks & PGA Predictions | Links & Locks

Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello, Nick Bretwisch and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s John Deere Classic on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

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00:00 – Intro
00:47 – Best Bets
08:36 – Course Preview
12:58 – Outright Bets
34:50 – One and Done
38:58 – Placement Market
46:59 – Rapid Fire

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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #AuthorNickBretwisch #BlueWireVideo

hello you beautiful degenerates and welcome to links and locks the action networks golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 this is your 2024 John Deere Classic Tournament betting preview alongside Spencer agar who you can find on Twitter or X TF Sports and Nick brwi whom you can find on X sticks piix I’m Roberto aruo following the rocket mortgage classic where I wasn’t betting you guys had a couple of second place finishes again I think that’s like five straight weeks for Nick and a combine nine out of 10 over for both Nick and Spencer over the last 10 weeks ridiculous run we’re really close let’s see if we can get across the Finish Line This Week in the Quad Cities we’re in Nick’s area of the country so Nick I’ll sling it to you first what is your best bet for the John Deere classic going with the best mustache and golf you’ve been talking about him for a couple weeks I think this is a great course fit for him and it’s my favorite Market which we went back to last week and did work out with Andrew Novak going Chandler Phillips top 40 where Tai’s paying full at plus 130 all right Chandler Phillips going with the Aggie in the midwest Spencer who you got for your best bet this week I don’t necessarily love this matchup board like when we get into the outrights that and you discussed it Roberto it’s been very close calls for Nick and I over and over again I think that this might be the week that one of us get across the Finish Line in the outright so stay tuned for that but I’ll give my best bet as David skins minus 105 over Joseph ramlet all right David skins was absolutely striping the ball with his irons last week so you’re fading Joseph brand with him for my best bet I’m going to jump into the top 40 Market just like Nick and I’m going to do it with last year’s corn fairy Tour player of the year Ben Kohl’s I’ve got him for top 40 at plus 140 before we get into my top 40 bet Nick why are you jumping on Chandler Phillips for the top 40 overall he graded as a top 25 player for me on this course in terms of safety I really like the short iron play his ability to hit Fairways and honestly just his ability to overall score when he is ball striking so his Strokes gained Approach at the RBC was very very poor I think one of the worst rounds he’s had all season long dating back to the Farmers Insurance or again that course is a lot more longer irons for a guy like Chandler Phillips where this course is not very long um set yourself up in the Fairway it’s going to have a lot of rain currently right now and tonight and so I I do assume that that rough will kind of bake out a little bit tomorrow and get pretty long because it is supposed to be like mid to Upper 80s tomorrow and just plentiful Sunshine so that rough’s probably going to be growing I really emphasize Fairway hitting this week and guys with those mid to short irons and that’s where Chandler Philips exceeds also like a short game I don’t think it’s fantastic but it’s good enough to get around here I don’t think these greens are very tricky there’s not a ton of crazy runoffs or anything some bunkers that I’ve played the course a couple times that bunkers aren’t very penal or anything like that I think that this course just demands accuracy off the te distance would help too on some of those par fivs but a guy like Chandler Phillips it’s plenty safe with that that uh flat stick there which these greens are pretty P um to get inside the top 40 I had this price closer to even money so if I can get 30 points of value and the Tien full which again I I think we equate that to about 15 extra points um so give or take you know 40 to 45 points of value in my model for Chandler Phillips inside the top 40 all right we’ve catched for Chandler Phillips as our best bet back at the Valar earlier this season let’s see if we can get it here at the John Deere classic Spencer why are you fading my Stanford Cardinal Joseph bramlet this week it pretty much just came down to trying to take on a player that graded as the worst value in my sheet this week if you look at what bramlett’s done here four career attempts at this course four miscuts sometimes you get these outcomes and everything that transpires with it where sometimes the results don’t match the metrics but the fact that the results are matching what my model is projecting on him like even when I’ll talk about it with David skins in a second there are different ways that I run my model and I will run every single player with a 0% course weight attached to them just to see if anything changes and when I ran a 0% weight for course history which is something that should technically help bramlet in my sheet it still saw grade 99th uh for expected Strokes gained at TPC Deer Run there are going to be some semi intriguing data points for him with the driver just because of his distance but when you get the fact that he also graded 118th in his career at TPC tracks and 132nd win combining Strokes gain total at both easy to medium strength scoring courses and then short to medium courses that delivered a profile that I was trying to figure out a way to take on this week there’s only one route of going about that that’s David skins he has failed to make the cut here himself in his one try but as I just talked about one of the things I like to do for players and this is even just beyond the answer I’m giving like if you have zero appearances or one appearances uh or one appearance sorry with that has ended up being a miscut there I I like to weigh their metrics like without that course history so anyone who lands in the top 50 range there will then get added back in a varying degree of course history weight back into their total know that’s kind of a convoluted weight that I just explained that there but skins ended up grading top 50 for me when you remove that miscut and you don’t add in the weighted course history even if I gave him the complete detriment of missing out on the weekend he still landed 39th overall that jumped up to 32nd when I gave him more of that middle ground course history weight that I wanted to give so I I don’t necessarily fully trust skins here here like those are all very intriguing answers for him but as I always say for these matchups I’m trying to find an opponent to take on and the market seems to be much higher on Bramlett than I am this week like he was outside of the top 100 in every iteration of how I ran M model spener skins his irons are hot he led the field last week at the rocket mortgage classic in approach play so hopefully he keeps that strong play going for you and even if Brandy pops maybe skids has the goods to beat him skin is a great story he’s I think he is 42 years old two years ago made it on the PJ tour as a rookie at 40 didn’t do anything I don’t think he had a top 25 he did not have a top 25 finish but in his last uh six starts he’s got six or he’s got four top 21 finishes so definitely playing some of the best golf of his career right now so I like the Skins play and if I can find that one I think I’m going to tell you on it but going to my best bet I’m backing Ben Kohl’s for the top 40 Market I’m also going to bet him for top 20 at plus 375 and outright at 110 to1 but I like the top 40 bet because it’s the safest one and at plus 140 I’d bet this one down to even money and it’s because he last year was the corn fairy Tour player of the year really got up to a slow start this season in his first 11 PGA Tour starts this year only one top 30 finish which came in Puerto Rico which is an opposite field event some people wouldn’t count it I’ll give it to them in his seven starts since then he’s got four top 30 finishes and he’s gain Strokes putting in five of six tracked events also he’s a great fit for this week excels in driving accuracy approach play and putting especially more so with his shorter irons since he’s not a long guy his driving accuracy has been consistent but his approach play and putting are both surging after a slow start early this season because of all that momentum with both the irons and the putter I think it’s coming together at the perfect time we saw him at another easy golf course at TBC Craig Ranch have a chance to win before the old Mongolian reversal on the final hole where pendrith makes birdie he makes bogey pendrith wins outright I think Kohl’s is in a great spot to make the cut get a top 40 potentially get a top 20 and if he finds himself in contention I think that experience in Dallas will help him out this week so I’m going with the top 40 as my best bet at plus 140 for the Virginia cavaliere fellas let’s get into our course preview before we do our outright cards and we go through the rest of our bets for the week Spencer I’ll sing it to you how are you modeling TPC de run this week I think any time that you get what is deemed to be a shorter course that features wide openen Fairways and larger than average greens the data is always going to start to point you in that direction of a pitch and Putt contest I don’t know if it’s necessarily as simple as that this week since there are additional metrics and Nuance factors that we should be considering when building a model but if you’re viewing TPC Deer Run as anything more than a birdie Fest you’re probably doing something wrong at its core inside of your metrics so this venue was built in 1999 by da webring on a former Arabian horse farm webring used the natural rolling landscape of the land to create a venue that’s going to stretch alongside the picturesque wooded Ravines of the area’s famous Rock River one of the things we discuss almost every week on this show when talking about TPC properties is how these tracks are consistent in their builds we always see the layouts mimic something along the lines of beautiful made for television architecture it’s frequently going to accentuate birdie Fest scoring conditions um you know the tour does seem to believe that’s better coverage on television that’s probably a discussion for a different day that we could have but one of the unique ways I built my model this week past the common layout answers those are going to be very easy to extrapolate was by adding in the reprojected weighted proximity returns for this course and then adding that to the make percentage totals on putts that we have on record throughout the advents history to me deviating a little in that area while then you add in the common viewpoints historical TPC scoring easy scoring at its most basic level I think you can run similar architecture trends of where tracks mimic other venues that was the most simplistic way for me to try to get unique but do so in a fashion that didn’t necessarily yield the exact blueprint as everyone else that was going to be looking at the data I did this last year I had sep stro at this tournament and one of the reasons that it pushed me to straa is I just tried to figure out essentially that answer of the weighted proximity and the make percentages is just and and I’ve talked about it a little bit on this show in the past is who’s going to create the most opportunities and then based off of those opportunities that are getting created what percentage of the time are the players in this field producing a birdie when they get into that spot so you add all of that together that’s how I ran my model to kind of try to look at this still from a putting perspective but maybe not just do it in the sense of these are the best Putters these are the guys that are going to play well there there’s a lot more that goes into this venue than that and when you can give yourself opportunities you might not be making every single one of them and there’s a lot of names that we’re going to talk about on my outright card that really ended up popping for me in that fashion that maybe didn’t have the prerequisites I was looking for with the putter but it’s an interesting tournament because opportunities for me was ended up being the most important I guess weight that I attached to my sheet because I think if you’re giving yourself opportunities you’re giving yourself a better chance to work yourself up the leaderboard Nick anything else in your model that you weighed that you’d like to add no I think he nailed it on the head and kind of my my stress on hitting Fairways and those close you know anywhere from 7500 50 those wedge shots to short iron I think is pretty much everything I’m looking for this week I’ll also add that this week we are on Bentgrass again last week it was a Bentgrass poem mix just like the week before at The Travelers championship and these greens this week are going to be significantly more pure than last week where thought it was a lot tougher to to hold putts so I am giving as much weight to putting as I do all season long I normally weigh a little less than most people do but I think that will be a key factor this week because some people are going to go absolutely nuclear on the greens and just last year someone like JT Poston lost Strokes on approach play and still got into the top 10 because you can get lightning hot on these greens so I am very intrigued to see how that ends up here at TPC Deer Run Gentlemen let’s get into our outright cards Nick I’ll sling it to you who you got to win the tournament this week at the John Deere classic speaking of weighing putting extremely heavy somehow I got back to Keith Mitchell in the outright Market uh 34 to1 just seemed like a little bit of a a number grab for me I’d had him in like the 28 to 30 range um Rio hits ATS at 65 to1 Maverick McNeely 28 to1 so I guess we check that box of the putting I hate that ticket but I do think that his game’s in a really good place I know his approach play and overall ball striking wasn’t great last week but if it is there everything else in his game hitting Fairway seems to be something he’s doing at a elite clip right now um Bo Hustler 60 to1 I would love to get your guys takes on him Sheamus power 55 and JT Poston 36 so I was right there at right about a unit at risk I think I went over my threshold this week but with five second place finishes in a row I figured I had to I had a extra golfer in there so I’ll do it but um also want to get your guys take on Jordan Speed the I I don’t know how you can bet him at the price that he’s at like to me he’s more of a DFS consideration I I think his ownership’s going to be very low and I actually wrote this in an article yesterday you know when you have a player and and when he’s the number one price player on a DFS board it changes the game a little bit but when you have a player that nobody’s going to want to play that’s still a top 30 expected win Equity candidate for you and he can push a little bit higher than that depending on exactly how you run your data and I would assume he’s probably higher on your model Nick than mine that doesn’t mean that he’s necessarily a name that’s so far down on mine but those are very intriguing gpp sort of options to where everybody’s off of speed for all the obvious reasons and he might very well do exactly what he’s been doing but if you look at some of the ball striking returns spe has actually been performing much more admirably than the results have indicated and I came on and we had this discussion like leading into the Open Championship of who’s somebody out there that might be trending and the the metrics and the results don’t necessarily show it when you just look at where they’re finishing speed was one of those names that we talked about as I said I can’t necessarily get there on the outright price that we’re getting because it’s not necessarily baking anything in and he opened as the favorite in a lot of these spots um it’s been pushed up and it’s a really funny thing that happened it’s like can’t they remove thems from the field then everybody dropped in price and speed took the opposite approach of getting drifted up with his number in a lot of these shops so you know it is what it is at this point I’m not going to get there in the outright Market but I will say Nick I don’t have an outright ticket on Bo Hustler he’s probably the closest name that I had on my sheet that I wanted to get to this week the the upside metrics for him is exactly what I’m looking for when trying to punch some of these outright tickets we talked a little bit before the show started hit satun um hoard which was the big person that I was on a bunch last week hosler those were the three biggest Underachievers that I could find in my model when you look at their ball striking and what their actual performance ended up being Roberto already talked about this you get a change in the green complex this week and you’re going to be able to find players that might be able to find upside I I don’t know if Rio is going to necessarily do that because he has negative trajectory in my model for putting on bass I ended up punching the ticket because the ball striking looks so good myself and I’ll talk about that a little bit deeper in a second but there are a lot of names and we know hosler to be a good putter but he gets even better in my model on Bentgrass I think the market is a little bit too low on him because of the results that ended up being not as high-end as they should have been for the way that he performed entering the final round and this is like the biggest takeaway I want everybody to hear I always talk about reprojecting a leaderboard and trying to figure out taking the actual ball striking and the two-year Baseline with the short game statistics B Hustler was running away with that in my model entering the final round and he was outside of the top 20 on the leaderboard so for a player that should have been leading that golf tournament and just didn’t quite get what he usually does with his Putter and he has positive upside in my model this week I think he’s a really Prime candidate to bounce back in a big way and if you know Nick we’ve talked about this whether it’s from the one andone or even from this discussion like there was a Tom Kim discussion a couple weeks ago on it I don’t think you were on the show but it’s that player that doesn’t end up making my card that always seems to come in second place in a lot of these contests I know you need the victory don’t want to jinx another second place for us here but I I like that Hustler play I think that Keith Mitchell and Bo Hustler if you could put them together into one golfer they would be the best golfer in this field you can’t TR I don’t trust booster’s ball striking I know that he gained four straight rounds last week and Spencer you just noted how he was an under retriever Keith Mitchell was the the only person who gained more Strokes on approach per round than David skins last week but he only played two rounds because he missed the cut it’s frustrating that Keith Mitchell’s been on such a great ball striking run this year but the putter has been ice cold perhaps a change of scenery will help him but it’s not like he hasn’t been on BG grass greens as recently as a few weeks ago so it if you want to bet Keith Mitchell shoot for the moon top five top 10 outright winner I like that play yeah Spencer who you got on your outright card just to double down really quickly I guess on the Keith Mitchell um discussion that we’ve had and it’ll push me into my play here so um I like I said I have putting in my model this week it it’s not a I didn’t weigh this without I know I talked about trying to get unique and different but there’s a lot of Strokes game putting on bent grass I tried to look at similar green complexes when you look at the soft to medium greens we’re going to get I think they’re going to be average to fast I kind of rolled all of that into one answer uh some of those for Keith Mitchell go in the wrong direction but I guess for me and I don’t want to get caught on this Keith Mitchell train because I feel like he’s become the Alex noren of what Alex norin was for us two years ago I’m sure in two years from now Keith Mitchell’s going to be top 10 in every single tournament we’re finally going to get what a fair result was for him but uh Mitchell was one of the most significant climbers in my model when you take Strokes game putting on Bentgrass and the Improvement that they got there versus their Baseline at at any other course so of realistic players for me that could win this tournament Dunlap was a big climber Daniel Burger was a big climber I’ll talk about him in a second uh Mitchell was one of the big climbers for me the biggest climber that I had in expected putting and this is why I started my card here was at Aaron Ry at 22 to1 that has since fallen into that 18 to 20 to1 range at most shops I think ry’s been the most consistent player in this field over the past two and a half months six consecu of top 40 finishes dating back to the Byron Nelson you add all of that to a statistical profile that placed him inside the top 10 of this field for a tournament leading five of six categories that I ran this week that’s going to include expected ball striking for TPC Deer Run that’s a very important one weighted Strokes gain total that always carries my biggest weight of the week and then projected scoring you start to get a golfer who landed as my top win Equity choice on the board I know that this number that I’m about to give is going to sound borderline outrageous this is very aggressive for a player who hasn’t won on tour but I think it’s hard to ignore the recent surging form for him you get a weaker event here I had 15 and a half to one as the proper going rate for him and the thing with that price to the next player I’m about to talk about now like if we’re talking about actual value I would say this next play is the best value that I have on the board I got JT poting or at least I recommended him at 33 to1 I kind of alluded to the fact that I think there’s a pretty good Chan just with how weak the market opened with him that he was going to drift drift up the board I know that Nick said he got 36 to1 I believe there’s some 35 to one still in the market to me that’s probably the best pure win Equity value that you can find of any of these names I talked a lot about this with Min woi last week one of the things I’m trying to project with my model is pure upside that’s going to outweigh any of the safer returns that you’re going to get of the other markets it’s impossible to run a model at least for me and this not show how poston’s going to have a wider ceiling a much lower floor than a lot of these names but I want to shoot for that upside when I’m trying to win a golf tournament he was first place for me in weighted Strokes gain total I just talked about how that’s always the grade for me that carries the most weight that’s 30% of my statistical weight that I have just on that one category there you you weigh that with every one of these other categories there’s two additional top 10 a lot of those land inside the top five I I think that one of the things people do and I and I always try to talk about this on the show is we don’t shoot for enough enough upside when actually trying to punch these tickets it’s always players that they have really safe floors but their ceiling might not be as high poston’s the exact opposite of that Boomer bust sort of play but at the price one of the best win Equity candidates I had I’m going to double down on Nick’s play Rio hit SATs I got him at 66 to one he was my favorite Target in 2024 when we entered this year haven’t necessarily gotten those pristine high-end results lack of a top 10 finish throughout this entire year but feel like that Outlook is flawed when you consider his last handful of starts I just want to note two points here I’ll keep this very short because Nick already did a good job talking about him look at what he’s averaged T green just over the last five tournaments and then go to the last two tournaments um it shrink the sample size even from there so over the last five plus. 274 Strokes gain T to Green you look at the last two plus 5.25 T green those two finishes didn’t yield better than a 31st Place finish because of the poor putting there’s some of that feature that’s going to come into play this week I talked about how he was a negative mover in my model but there’s two sorts and two types of golfers here there’s the golfer who just loses with his flat stick over and over again and there’s the golfer who loses really big but when he gains he gains really big and that’s more of the profile I want to take on in a lot of these positions because if the ball striking can hit and the putter can actually produce that’s how you get a victory it doesn’t mean that the putter is going to necessarily coincide with it but he’s gained over four shots in two of his past six starts he’s lost over two and a half shots in an additional five of 12 tournaments so seven of the last 12 tournaments he’s played he’s either gained over four or lost over two and a half I kind of expect the same outcome to come into play this week but I would rather shoot for the upside there at that 66 to1 price took Doug gim at 80 to one lack of upside similar answer to Rio it’s just the actual statistical profile for me and these are things I’ll write about I’ll write it in the Action Network article that comes out on Wednesday we’ll talk about why my model liked gim as much as it did but it’s just I’m much higher on him than consensus seems to be every single week and um I know the putter has remained really bad over the course of the last couple months but I do think his ball striking at some moment is going to put it together and when he puts it together I expect him to provide a high-end finish even if he hasn’t necessarily done that so far this season and then I closed out my card with Daniel burger at 80 to one I gave this answer like if you look at my players this week outside of JT Poston there is a very consistent Trend in inside my model for these are mostly poor Putters that have the ability to spike with that portion of their game um Burger is going to give me that he was a top 20 player for me in a lot of iterations of how I built this there were some negative marks that ended up pushing him in the opposite direction when we look at expected birdie rates and things of that nature but the thing I liked about him most is if you just compare him at any generic course so he’s 114th and birdie or better percentage at a random course when you look at easy scoring conditions and expected Strokes gained at just easy scoring tracks he jumped up to number three for me in my model so Burger is one of these you know you give him a course that’s short to medium in length you give him a course that generates easier birdie looks he always generates a higher ceiling in those potential outcomes so I’m gonna take him an 80 to1 I’m GNA hope that the putter turns around it might be broken I know Nick seems to think that it might be broken he very well may be correct with that but I I like the number at 80 to one it was too enticing for me to pass up guys I got a couple notes uh R hisatsune your boy he has one win on the DP World Tour do you guys know where that came yes um I cannot recall the top of my head right now though um Nick do you know from cheating France yeah yes uh he won at the French Open the golf National which is the host site of this year’s Olympics unfortunately he was edged out just barely in the official world golf rankings by another golfer so he did not qualify for the Olympics so I’m sad about that I wish we could see him there um you look like my boy finished T2 that week sorry to cut you off but Jordan Smith get ready for uh to talk about him at the Scottish open next week I’m excited for that um also wanted to note that last year the John Deere class Spencer you talked about the upside with putting and I will Echo the sentiments of you need guys who have upside throughout the bag uh just in general or who can put the pieces together to potentially get to a certain Strokes gain number for the week and that’s how you should be looking at it not just like who’s played and gotten a couple top 20s in a row that’s not how you got it bet outrights anyways last year Poston was second in the field in Strokes game putting do you guys know who was first in Strokes game putting last year at this event I could cheat had to guess I will I will not cheat but I’m gonna guess Andrew putam good guess it was Kevin Yu best putting week of his life um the only putting week of his life the maybe the only putting week of his life uh he was closer to 80 to 100 to one last year if I recall I bet him and this year he’s 40 to one so I haven’t bet him I don’t know that I expect that to repeat but I just thought that was really interesting and something noting uh you got to have some kind of upside so it can happen it it might not be likely but it can it can happen uh I don’t have on my card this week I’ve as always am dying to to put him on my card we had some bonus action last week on the Main feed uh or on our feature group speed we put it to we moved to the 15th hole where Kevin youu had a five foot birdie Putt and of course he missed it so that was the one time I got to see Kevin youu last week I on my card this week it’s pretty short I have strong Putters I have room for more so I am open to adding some more maybe an inpod play I already noted Ben Cole at 110 to1 I won’t elaborate on that I have a Lee Hodes 100 to1 ticket he’s a strong Putter and iron player without any huge weaknesses so I’ve bet him in the top 40 Market I like that a little bit more but at 100 to one this is more of a number grab I thought he should have been closer to the 80 to 70 to1 range his iron play had been hot before last week’s rocket mortgage where he gained an approach on five straight including at the PGA Championship where he was second in the entire field in approach play so I like the upside there even though that profil is more of a mid iron golf course and he gained over a stroke per round on approach in three of his last five events so he can get to a certain level with his irons that I think is really valuable in this field and the putter was hot during a pure bent grass stretch earlier this season where he gained for four straight weeks including at the PJ Championship the PO last the PO mix last couple weeks he was below average but I’m willing to buy back on him in uper in a pure bankrupt surface this week and he’s more accurate than long off the te so I think he fits the mold with somebody who can just get it on the green give himself opportunities and then if his putter gets hot he can win so I like that at 1001 I thought he had more upside than a lot of his other peers in that price range I also bet Davis Thompson at 30 to1 I love Davis Thompson would have bet him last week if if I was able to bet I was between pendrith and Davis Thompson in one and done and in pure Spencer fashion I chose wrong so I am maybe being a little bit reactionary here I’m probably going to play him for one and done I’m not completely sold on that but I love Davis Thompson he’s training in the right direction made his first cut at a major championship a couple weeks ago at the US Open which was a TI for ninth I’m very excited about this guy’s game I don’t want to miss it and he might end up being the best golfer in this field when we look back a couple years from now I also think that there’s a lot of intrigue around some other golfers in this field Neil Shipley 100 to1 very intriguing I think he’s actually 110 to1 he plays really aggressively he had some fun quotes after uh some of the rounds last week where he said yeah my strategy hasn’t changed I’m just going to bomb driver everywhere and try to go for birdies everywhere I don’t know that’s the best strategy this week where there is a Miss penalty or a Miss Fairway penalty but I’m intrigued by his upside Luke Clon also intrigues me don’t have him on the card for outrights he could be the best golfer in this field next year how about that we we mentioned him last year last week just like saying are the books scared them and just don’t want any risk and I think that was definitely a sharp like obviously it was a great number now in terms of implied probabilities but I feel like they just priced him out of the market because they just wanted to see what he could do and obviously had great knowledge that he is in fantastic ball strike and that dude rips it off the driver so yeah we got to call a few of his shots last week and he was consistently hanging around 182 83 ball speed which is roughly 10th and he’s he’s a child he’s like 20 years old uh I I’ve actually got a Luke Clan play so I’ll I’ll transition this into the rest of our cards um I noted Lee Hodes I’ve got him for top 40 plus 125 I’ve also got Luke Clanton for top 40 plus 105 let’s take a look at his results so far this season he’s played in two professional events he had a putt to make Birdie on the 72 hole at US Open which would have tied him for 32nd I believe he ended up three putting tied for 41st he also last week tied for 10th and then he has made 10 starts on in college this year nine of those 10 were tied for 11th or better so this guy’s Flor is pretty darn High I’m not going to say that t11 on a college event would be a Top 40 on the PGA tour but it’s just that he is consistently playing decent golf and oh by the way during that 10 tournament stretch he had or sorry his last six starts since March 10th in college were a tie for second a tie for fifth a a fifth solo fifth a win a win and a win so three wins at his last six college starts he’s only a rising Junior at Florida State he’s got a ton of upside I wish I could buy stock on him maybe we should buy uh a trading card on him right now and uh see if we can get in before everybody is in on him but he’s got so much upside I don’t think this is the best course fit because he’s not going to be able to bomb driver everywhere and really get a payoff for that length advantage on this golf course but at top 40 plus 105 I’ll sprinkle it a little bit I’m not going to get too invested on it but Spencer I was looking at your sheet and he was basically right there at the top yeah I think that this is not a like we always talk on this show about not being reactionary to a lot of these situations and I don’t have a ton of data on him but for him to be inside of the top 10 of my model after just a couple of events worth of data this is a very intriguing answer and I think you mention it best Roberto like there are we can talk about this being a water downfield and at its core it probably is but there are some young intriguing super high-end potential golfers him being one Davis Thompson uh I mean there there’s five or six names that we could really go through here that in a year or two might be legitimate top 20 players in the world so I don’t think this tournament is necessarily as bad at its ground level and I I’ve talked about this before that trying to buy trading cards of players like that was the game that I played with Giannis with the NBA stuff just don’t be premature with it like I was and sell it before the maximum boom ends up taking place and costing yourself I want to say hundreds of thousands but I probably cost myself Millions at the end of the day like I I had some of the super high-end stuff and I made a ton from it but uh some of those Booms that like the card Market experienced post Co when all of that was coming in and that market boomed uh that that was painful watching that market go up and up and up I so I only have three plays on my outright card I’m very intrigued by Ry I’m very intrigued by Poston Bo Hustler has me itching a little bit I think there’s some upside there I just don’t trust the iron play I am very much considering those guys I noted that Davis Thompson is my oneandone play right now I might go crazy and put Clinton in there I don’t even we can um just cuz I don’t know um anyways Nick you put me way in the rearview mirror you got 600,000 last week roughly with um I believe mimu Lee so you are what a what a shocker Roberto like I said on the show the one player that I don’t have available that I want to use it’s the most fireproof strategy that like you you can’t lose with it and and I get stuck I wanted to play minwoo I’m just trying to make Cuts it’s all I’m trying to do just take down the made cut strategy and and win whatever my 5% ends up being from it and just call it a day I take Tom Kim just trying to play it safe and there’s a miscut so this just has not gone well um I don’t know with this being a weaker tournament I don’t know that I necessarily have somebody that I’ve already used that I would like to use but if I do figure out what that name is Roberto I’ll be or Nick I guess maybe we’ll rotate who gets it every single week I’ll be sure to just text you guys and you guys can figure out which way you want to go with it unbelievable the curse of Spencer lives on Nick who you got for one and done this week simple answer JT Poston had I had others available I I would play sunj M here um as much as I like because the elevated events are done right the elevated purses yeah um kind of the the first two weeks of the playoffs will be the same as prior elevated events so we basically have three left with the open I think on paper yeah he’s probably the most like well-rounded High upside like highest win equity in my model it actually was not Jordan spe when Spencer brought that up earlier I’m sure a lot of people used him already um going down the rankings here Davis Thompson would probably be another guy I’d seriously consider but I’m I’m going to go with JT Post in here locked and load Spencer who you got for one and done I’m trying to bring it up right now and I’ve apparently locked myself out of my account or I’ve been locked out of the account so I don’t even know who I have available um tell me who you want and I can try to let you know if you have them available I have it Roberto didn’t tell you about the uh the cut at the at June only the top 13 in the field make the cut after June so 14th and 15th are out sorry man uh I would take Aaron Ry I I I mean there’s no way I’ve taken Aaron Ry correct correct correct I’ll take oh no no no no sorry uh lied oh well that means we Nick we have to play Aon Ry because Spencer took him at the V bar and that was one of Spencer’s few miscuts so I don’t I don’t understand play Aaron Ry that’s the thing like I played minw Lee like when nobody had played minw Lee how have I played Aaron Ry I don’t understand what has happened in this contest you playing Aaron Ry before he was cool Aaron Ry is winning this golf tournament based off of that um I mean I don’t I guess Poston would be my second choice but that doesn’t help me any I don’t know I might just not submit a pick and just say I was hacked and try to get my Davis Thompson available maybe Davis Thompson would be the best play then based off of what I he does have Davis Thompson available I think shck is gonna be popular but um he could play KH Lee you know it’s PC course and he’s been broken but it can’t be worse than most your picks this year well I mean the thing is is they’re just made Cuts I come in 43rd Place every single week and then when I actually want to use the player in yeah if you could if we could figure out who Spencer’s betting and then or picking for one and done if we could bet that person to finish exactly 28th we’d be making killing it’s a top 40 Market that’s just there you go all right guys what else do you have on your cards I’ll sing it to you unic any other plays besides your uh top 40 and the outrights yes uh bet 365 are good partners over there laid a good price on Rio top 20 at 3 to one I mentioned Chandler Phillips as my best bet um kind of riding recent form and a guy that I think does fit this course in these lower I don’t want to say lower skill but these like the lower profile tournaments Patton kazy top 20 I found a a number that was way off Market uh I have this at plus like 380 but there is a shop out there in the legal Market that is plus 450 and I believe that is it so yeah Rio top 20 Patton kazy top 20 and Chandler Phillips top 40 but minimal minimal risk on Paton Kazar okay the Phillips one was the one you was your best bet yes okay cool I wasn’t sure if there was another top 20 yep nope uh just Chandler inside top 40 and then Rio and Paton kazai are top 20 awesome Spencer any other bets on your card this week I think the three that Nick just said are three of the best values that I have in this space that’s including the Chandler Phillips pick um that he mentioned at the beginning of the show Paton kazy for me was a top 20 overall grader uh better safety ratings even than that the upside left a little bit to be desired but I think a top 20 bet at that number that Nick just talked about is a very interesting play there the only other ticket for me and it’s kind of under the same umbrella of of this conversation that we’ve had of trying to find these guys that have been producing recently um that are grading well in our models Justin low top 40 plus 150 I I like that ticket like when I write my my Action Network Best Bets uh article that’s going to come out today with all of us on it the head-to-head matchup that I talked about came from a book that I’m not going going to be able to use for that I’m assuming at this moment Justin low for a top 40 will probably be my favorite play he just consistently con continues to grade inside of the top 20 of my model pretty much week in and week out and whether it’s him or Nick hit it last week with Andrew Novak I feel like it’s those players that the market has just been really slow Jacob Bridgeman like is starting to fit that mole too maybe Chandler Phillips would be the other it’s just very consistently these players are producing and they’re not necessarily getting the move inside the market and we see this happen every once in a while it was the Eric Cole syndrome that happened over and over again last year it was a much higher end finishes that Cole was providing but regardless of whatever Cole did in last season he never really moved in the market and I feel like low and Bridgeman and Phillips and and Novak no matter what they’re doing they just continue to stay at the same exact price and at some point you have to acknowledge that the number is just off yeah these are guys who may not be the ones we want to Target in the outright Market at least unless we get a big fat number next to their names but they’re playing Great Golf they’re playing the best golf of their lives and they’re consistent also one thing I wanted to note that Aaron Ry Spencer whom you have on your outright card he’s eighth this year in Strokes gain total on the PGA tour including everybody everybody so I mean really seventh because Scotty cheffer shouldn’t count but he’s ahead of guys like sah G lham Clark o batia um you look at another golfer Rio hisatsune whom sure he doesn’t have a top 10 finish this year he’s ahead of guys like Cameron young and Matt Fitzpatrick at 51st in Strokes King total so far this season so it’s getting late on the season a month from now we’ll have the FedEx Cup playoffs so desperate times on the PJ tour for a lot of these guys who especially they didn’t play the US Open the memorial or The Travelers in those Signature Events or in the major championship got to get these points now to get into the playoffs secure your card secure your spots in the Signature Events next year so it’s important times for those guys especially as the big guns are jumping across the pond and Patrick Klay as we noted earlier hurt himself during a workout and had to withdraw yesterday so that completely changed the board this week gentlemen any other bets you wanted to Workshop any other players you’re looking to fade that you haven’t gotten an opportunity to anything else you’d like to note no I was just as you were saying saying all of that going back to the Val part just trying to figure out how Aaron Ry actually ended up being my oneandone pick that week but uh I mean he only graded 10th in my model and now he’s first overall in my model so just mistakes have been made that’s just where I’m at right now that was the week where I think I gave out chanler Phillips plus 320 for a top 40 and that market has changed for him um I also wanted to know Matt coocher somebody could be interesting to fade this week he was on our feature group coverage last week we had a Spanish feed so we wanted to have niik Sharia on there and he was paired with coer so I got to watch the Matt coocher Coo’s ball speed is nail like at 163 on the PJ tour basically the lowest on tour he was around 156 last week because he has a hurt left hip that was not really allowing him to walk perfectly he was visibly in pain or audibly in pain I should say as well L sounding like somebody who was at Wimbledon with Wimbledon starting today uh after every shot he still made the cut and played decently but four straight days of that then playing again this week because he has to because he’s desperate for points I don’t know how long his body’s going to be able to withstand all that he also hits the ball nowhere and with guys this week clubbing down and hitting Fairways some of them are going to hit their 3-woods farther than his driver and I think his Fairway advantage is going to disappear a little bit more with these Fairways being relatively wide at 38 yards on average so he could be somebody who’s interesting to fade even though he had a strong week last week There’s No data to show that he has that hurt hip but the ball speed was around 156 when it’s normally around 163 so he could be somebody who’s interesting if you can find a market maybe miscut Equity or maybe a miscut market um or in a matchup with somebody whom you’re bullish on so I’d keep an eye on that um nobody back will Gordon too oh that’s right I I had that noted uh are we playing him for first round leader no I don’t think maybe first round dfl he’s in he’s his game’s in a bad place he was missing a cut on the corn fairy T I don’t even think he sniffed the number but I love him will if you’re listening then go get him this week buddy um one of the more interesting I I did bet will Gordon last year for first round leader at Pebble Beach and believe he was eight under through 15 holes and then the wind switched and was right into his face for the last couple holes and he might have made a 10 on 18 and he ended up missing the cut that was that was crazy uh shout out to will Gordon hope he fixures it out looking at his results this season he played a few times until February and then didn’t play between February and June so I’m not sure whether he had I think he had partial status and maybe he was hurt he didn’t even play on corn fairy tour until June so he’s played the last two two of the last three weeks on the corn fairy or two of the last four weeks on the corn fairy tour Miss Cuts in both of them doesn’t have a top 40 in six starts across both tours this year it’ll be interesting to see what he does this week he could be a super deep DFS flyer you might be little person who El but who knows um gentlemen want to get into some rapid fire and then we can call it a day yes all right so we noted at the top of the board sunj IM what do we make proper on him Spencer I’m higher than the rest of the market like I I or higher as in worse in the rest of the market like I understand most books have them where they have them like I have them more in the 35 to1 range like I’m double triple where the market is Nick any thoughts on sunj I think it’s his tournament to lose and I was going to start my card there just I mean it’s a good price you can get 15 to one out there I think that’s incredibly fair but didn’t get there he’s coming off of by far his best approach week of the year at The Travelers Championship best result as well where he tied for third there so momentum for sun JM also top 10’s the Charles Schwab and the Memorial tournament I’m not super interested in playing him I think they other guys with higher upside a Davis Thompson so that’s why I’ve gotone in a different direction sep straa Spencer you had him last year here what do you make proper for him this week he’s 16 and a half to one by the way I I honestly think that that number is very very close so I talked about Aaron Ry being 15 and a half to one and this is where my model was just really aggressive on the top three that I had so uh Poston was the big climber for me in that area when I just ran it for pure win Equity I have proper at 18 and a half to one on straa so you’re technically not getting a fair price but I thought straa was the third best upside candidate in this tournament and the market unfortunately has him as the second name so I couldn’t get there with the number that we had but straa has a real chance to go back to back at this tournament he’s been playing really consistently so far this year I’m very intrigued by him the whole psychology of the is he gonna go back to back has thrown me for a loop a little bit so I’m still considering him Poston and Ry I’ll probably throw one of them on my card but haven’t quite made up my mind yet um let’s look a little farther down the board Denny McCarthy is somebody whom we haven’t discussed he’s at 22 to1 Jason day’s 32 to1 Spencer if you had or Nick I’ll sing this to you if you had to bet between McCarthy at 22 or day at 32 which one would you pick I would take day at 32 not a not a huge Danny guy but I I do think obviously if it’s a putting contest like many are anticipating I think it’s fits well for him but Jason day’s got to show something eventually but I don’t know maybe he’s broken again sorry Spencer but uh for 10 points more give me give me Jason day Spencer same question I’m gonna say Denny McCarthy I don’t necessarily want to go down either one of these two routes I I do my model does like McCarthy it just doesn’t like the price that you’re having to pay for him where with day my model likes them less and it also doesn’t like the price that you have to pay but there some and we can look at the course history from McCarthy there are some really interesting high-end returns in my sheet that re start rivaling him with some of the the bigname players of the the top favorites like number two in my model in Strokes G total at TPC courses you look at a two-year running perspective number two in my model in Strokes gain total there’s there’s there’s real Intrigue for why he finds success at this venue and for somebody that never wants to play Denny marcar and I never find myself on him I most of those putting heavy profiles are normally names that I don’t back in a lot of spots but when when an option like McCarthy ends up becoming an intriguing name in my sheet it kind of always at least raises some sort of a flag to where it at least makes me acknowledge where they are on it like I I can’t get there at the price but I do like him for different iterations of the market probably a good matchup bet like beyond anything else if you could find the right opponent interesting that Jason day is in the field this week he’s 28th in the FedEx Cup Standing so it’s not like he needs points like he’s in Justin Thomas territory from last year he hasn’t played at the John Deere classic since 2011 so I don’t know why he’s playing intrigued uh maybe he just really thinks he this is a great spot for win and the putter has been really hot he’s ninth in Strokes game putting this season has been red hot there but the iron play has not been consistent at all you real quick one last question do you guys like Ben Silverman at all he graded very similar to Chandler Phillips for me I know I faded him last week and that was an unmitigated disaster like my my entire head-to-head card last week was some of the worst I don’t even like with Silverman at least I can stomach that one that Silverman played well and my model ended up being wrong it was much less digestible for the Taylor Moore answer where Taylor Moore lost a million Strokes with his approach game and just kept gaining with the short game over and over again after two rounds with Taylor Moore he was projected 131st in my model and found his way just working up the leaderboard the whole week so uh I I thought Silverman looked good my model didn’t necessarily have him as high as yours did Nick but for a player for me that was outside of the top 100 last week and as everybody knows I run mine over long-term duration of time and I just didn’t think last week was a good course fit for for him and I kind of Stand by that answer so we’ve talked about this previously with Harmon uh where Harmon overachieved at a course early in the year and then you know you throw him on a course that’s more suited for his game and then all of a sudden you get like another top 10 finish from him I think Silverman possesses a very similar profile there where a guy that didn’t fit in Detroit golf club and now all of a sudden gets here and is inside of the top 45 of my model I’m not necessarily popping but I think for some of these markets is it is an intriguing play four of his five best putting weeks on the PJ tour have been in the last four weeks as well so surging with a lot of momentum I think he fits the build of someone you want to back here who hits Fairways decent iron play especially from short iron distances and then strong putter with momentum yeah all right guys I’ll get you out of here on this one Nick Dunlap is 37 to1 our boy Kevin Yu is 45 to1 Luke Clanton is 45 to1 Sam Stevens is 50 to1 and Eric Cole is 50 to1 you had to take an outright ticket on one of those five dlap youu Clanton stevens or Cole Nick which one would you pick I don’t as much as I like Sam Stevens I don’t believe in him give me Clinton I want to root for him that would be a rooting interest play and because the unknown I think is why I’m more intrigued at that number than what I know about the other guys yeah that’s I I will give the same answer as Nick on that um for the most part I Kevin youu would probably be the second choice for me and I have not given that answer in quite a little bit of time you talked about this Roberto of Kevin U gaining heavily with the putter last year and and I think it’s an interesting Viewpoint when you look at this leaderboard from 2023 you get these really highend performers or at least marginally or better expected performers with the Putter and then you get a lot of the low-end guys like straa was a top 40 expected putter for me last year uh Todd shank Poston hubard McCarthy all those names are your prototypical Putters that excelled but then you got a lot of names like SMY and Glover and Kevin Yu and Grayson Sig that are not necessarily producing with the flat stick and I guess that kind of shows what I tried to do with my card where I did grab the putter in JT Poston but there’s an ability for names that are not necessarily your week in week out Putters maybe Rio can be that option this week where they end up popping with that fashion of their game and they win the golf tournament so that’s the approach I took in the outright market and as a last closing note just because I found this very interesting just to get back to the Davis Thompson conversation when I was looking at Aaron Ry of why I took him at the vals part I was going through one of my articles there my best bet that week which happened to all also be a losing ticket which I mean we want to talk about closing line value months later on this Davis Thompson was an underdog in a matchup to web Simpson ended up losing that ticket and uh that’s how far Davis Thompson has come and then it shows how quickly these markets can change over the course of time with some of these young players and with the young players I’m always fine and maybe that’s just kind of gets us into the Clanton answer I’m fine being ahead of the market on some of those options these names where I know what they are because we’ve seen it year after year after year I I’m less likely to want to react to a move or two like what I’ve seen from Clanton so far makes me intrigued to at least I didn’t punch the outright ticket but I don’t think that it’s that bad of a wager it’s hard to imagine that two amateurs end up winning when it hasn’t happened in forever with Dunlap and him in this season but uh Clinton is the real deal last Amer to win before Nick Dunlap the season was 1991 Phil Mickelson I’m sure you’ve heard of him also coming into this year Luke Lin and Nick Dunlap were Rivals they’re both Juniors or sophomores are Juniors and no they were both sophomores this past year would have been rising Juniors at least Clinton is Clinton was considered the better golfer and then Nick Dunlap just went out on the PJ tour and won this is a weaker field than the American Express earlier in the season perhaps it could be the week for Clinton I don’t think it’s good of a course fit as the American Express was where of course that’s a rotational course or rotation of courses but a lot of drivers there fewer drivers here if it was more driver friendly I would be more inclined to go with with those guys but among those five golfers I’d also go with Clinton just barely above my boy Kevin youu Clanton Just really quickly sorry Clanton is in a matchup against Nick Dunlap out there where Clanton is minus 127 so you are correct Roberto like Dunlap may take down a tournament in all of a sudden get all the notoriety but even the market off of a US Open result that finished just outside of the top 40 for all the reasons that you talked about immediately reacted to him at the rocket mortgage last week and made him a favorite against everybody and now you enter this week favorite over Dunlap who’s already won right there on the odds board with JT Post in an essential minus one1 each way bet against Kevin Yu Market is respecting him in all of these matchups that’s very indicative uh return for a golfer that when you can get those answers from these upand cominging guys there’s usually something there by the way I’m still very bullish on Nick Dunlap he has shown that he has a ton of upside obviously won this year it’s about him not making mistakes sometimes I think he’s got his best stuff is as good as just about anybody else’s not named Sheffer it’s just avoiding mistakes being a little bit more disciplined and he’s still 20 years old so he’s got a long weights to go and it’s cool to be able to watch him mature on the PJ tour instead of having to wait a couple years to earn his card fellas have a lot of fun breaking this down this week Nick where can we find your work this week at sticks piix on Twitter stiix p i KS and the action Network’s best bet article with uh with you boys awesome Spencer where can we find your work this week yeah you can find me on Twitter at tof sports I will have my Wednesday article here for action nwor don’t know what it’s going to be about yet it’s probably going to be looking into the outright Market because there are very few weeks that I come on the show and actually express interest in the outright Market to the tune that I have this week and uh maybe it’s an overaggressive thing like Nick talked about where I think we’re all seeing the board really well and sometimes it’s just these minor little deviations that occur to where a player doesn’t win or does win like Min wo Lee last week had every chance to take if he could just he makes par on 18 he’s in a playoff if he makes Birdie on 18 he wins the golf tournament sitting there in the clubhouse over the final couple holes so I think we’re very close to hitting an outright winner I really like the outright board this week I thought there was a lot of intriguing options to talk about and then I’ll have all my intern bets which I try to get back on track this week as I mentioned last week was probably one of the low-end tournaments that has been put together for me this season but uh very intrigued about this tournament I think there’s a lot of potential here here for uh some nice upside results and hey sometimes you have the right side you bet Davis Thompson over web Simpson it just doesn’t work out so gotta keep playing the game and uh sticking to the course pun intended uh you can find me on Twitter Roberto 8213 you can find all of our Action Network content wherever you get it online on the app we also have all of our podcasts you find on YouTube as well shout out to the YouTubers um tons of great content going on with action going to get ready for the Olympics we already have an Olympics article out there that uh Joshua Perry put out he he bet Tom came at 50 to1 before Tom Kim nearly won two weeks ago at The Travelers so be sure to check it out we’ve got uh already Olympic basketball qualifier bets I know Joe deair is going nuts on those we got bets for Rookie of the Year for NBA with all the free agency going on tons of live reactions in real time so be sure to check out the Action Network app or wherever you consume Action Network content team is put in a lot of work and very proud to be a part of it uh you can find me on Twitter Roberto 8213 also as a reminder this podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary and that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boosts specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the 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