Brad Thomas and Denny Carter share their best bets and DFS picks for the John Deere Classic, highlighting Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im, Jake Knapp, among others.
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Best bets and DFS picks for the 2024 John Deere Classic | Going For The Green | Golf Channel
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welcome to going for the green and we have an exciting tournament for you hold the Applause John Deere classic Brad Thomas here with Denny Carter we’re going to give you our favorite bets and picks for DFS Denny how are things going with you man I’m looking forward to another birdie Fest give me give me all the birdies I I I don’t want to see an approach shot land outside of 12 feet this week or I’m turning off the TV of course I’m kidding I’m I’m going to watch the whole thing well we should uh see even more birdies this week I think the last two years 2100 was a winning score but there’s weather on Tuesday and then expected more rain Thursday morning which should soften the conditions I’m gonna go with my golfer and I kind of hate doing this I kind of hate taking the lowest price guy on the board but I was gonna bet him prior to Patrick Klay um injuring himself and then withdrawing from the tournament and that’s Sun JM if we look at what Sun JM has done over the past what month or two he’s kind of rided those wrongs that he was rolling around with earlier in the season he’s actually a really good fit for this course as well because what you want is you want a guy who is going to be really accurate off the team and they’re gonna be really precise with their second shot that leans to a lot of birdies Sun JM at the traveler Championship T3 at Memorial T8 and at Charles Schwab T9 what I really love about sunj 2 and his last start he gained five Strokes on approach and his putter was hot gained another 2.3 Strokes Denny do you have any love for sunjay or is his price too high in the DFS Market yeah a top 10 in my model this week um and really I mean he he fits what you’re looking for here if you’re talking about you know correlation to success on this course you’re talking about uh accurate off the te um there’s a negative a deep negative correlation for distance okay so so we don’t care we don’t care about distance at all this week so we want guys who hit in the Fairway sjm does that and his after some you know hiccups uh in the middle of the Season his iron play has picked back up I I mean I would guess that he’ll be around 30% roster but it might be chalk worth eating yeah it’s gonna be chalk worthy if he wins if not it’s going to look like a total dud um there were some Georgia Bulldogs that caught my eye in my model I actually liked Davis Thompson but you have another Georgia Bulldog that you like tell me what you like about the Austrian I mean if you’re if you’re looking for a guy who’s going to put the ball in the Fairway more than almost anybody except straa uh this season he is leading the entire PGA Tour and driving accuracy 83% uh Fairway rate off the te he’s third and good drive rate that kind of combines uh hitting the Fairway with putting yourself in position to score from there uh sear has gained on Approach at nine straight events just super hot with his irons he’s made Seven of those nine cuts so you know in DFS we we are okay with eating some chalk and by that I mean a popular popular play SE ster will certainly be probably 20 to 25% rostered here um we’re okay with doing that as long as we feel very good about our guy’s chance of making the cut and I feel excellent about SE straka making this cut doesn’t hit it doesn’t hit it long but again we don’t care he hits in the Fairway yeah uh sep straka might be the jdc legend after this week it’s kind of funny because everything that you want is what Seth sta does he’s top five in in uh greens and regulation he’s really good at par fours that are 400 to 450 yards I was going to bet him price was a little too too low for me when I already had Sun JM I actually kind of went a little bit deeper and back to the well again uh nap time I think is the uh the nickname for his his Squad I’m going with Jake knp um make sure you shop this line around 80 to one uh I’ve seen it as high as 100 uh plus 1,000 excuse me there I mean excuse me plus 100 to one I can’t talk because I’m so excited about Jake knp but let me tell you why I like him I think it’s actually might be U my subconscious telling my conscious self that you need to stop talking about Jake knp because he’s not gonna win but I’m going back to him I saw some promising signs at Rocket mortgage if you looked at his stat profile from the MS to Travelers it was red all over the Red Sea was Jake nap but he corrected some things number one off the tea he was spectacular gaining six and a half Strokes when you’re good off the tea what does that lead to Great approach play gained on approach gained ball striking gain T to Green his putter was terrible right like only he lost three Strokes putting but Jake nap’s not the guy who I think week in and week out is going to be a great putter I think he’s the kind of guy who’s G to really rely on just killing it on approach much like he did at Mexico open he was putting it so close he couldn’t miss putts and it’s GNA kind of propel him to the top I just thought at 100 to1 80 to1 whatever price you’re looking at he was too he’s he’s a type of guy who can overpower this course and it’s too much value to pass up so I had to take Jake knap yeah I mean he’s a volatile play for for sure um but definitely in a field that is not exactly strong uh to put it to put it mildly I think that he’s he’s clearly a top option as far as Talent goes yeah um it’s hard I I I don’t want to keep going to the Jake nap but I have to um we have nap time and then we have Burger time tell me what you like about Daniel Burger yeah I mean you have Burger time and then nap time usually oh yeah yeah I did it in the inverse that’s how it goes am my I don’t know you know hey you can you can experiment through you know start the nap and then have the burger but yeah uh Daniel Burger now here’s the thing about uh talking about Daniel Burger this week as a as a viable DFS play uh he missed the cut last week at Rocket mortgage um his iron play was horrific which is very strange very weird because Daniel Berger’s iron play had been on the uptick for for three events before that that’s why I was heavy on him and why I struggled with my lineups last week uh so Burger missing the cut could actually be I think sort of a good thing for this week because people are going to be off of burger okay uh they’re going to be nap time they’re going to be having their nap they’re not gonna be having their burger I’m G to stop with that now but but you know but Burger is is I think I think a good play because he does the things we’re looking for on this course um 87% uh good drive rate that’s fourth best in this field over the past two months um you know he can put it he could put it in play his irons are fine except for last week which was again a disaster uh so I do think that he’s sort of a a nice little pivot in that in that mid-range if you’re playing tournaments on DraftKings yeah Daniel burer you talked about his iron uh iron play he was a gainer in four of his last five events prior to Rocket mortgage so a solid play in my book there I’m going with Mr Harry higs and before you get all up in arms he’s what 175 to1 so it’s not like I’m out here betting on Danny McCarthy at 17 to1 Harry higs to win the tournament right I might sound crazy but the dude has two kft wins he won an aan Hill Championship he won Knoxville and yes that was in 2024 when you have a guy like Harry higs who’s just you know bouncing back from the PGA Tour the corn fairy tour I think that bounceback is actually what makes me really excited for him an event like this because he was struggling right like he had missed four four consecutive cuts and then miss back-to-back Cuts before finishing t68 at RSM and then he went to the corn fairy tour he’s the kind of guy who can say I went to the corn fairy tour I corrected things in my my game I gained a little bit of confidence and I brought good golf game good golf playing good golf mentality what 75% mental to the game I like Harry higs this week um he needs to keep his ball in the Fairway but if he does so he’s like a 65% uh driving accuracy guy if he does so I think that the confidence that he’s gained from the corn fairy tour bringing into this like weaker field will help him out it’s a long shot so don’t call me crazy uh if he misses the cut we know one thing about Harry higs Brad is that the Vibes will always be outrageously good so we do we do like that um Denny I actually was gonna bet Kelly craft as my insane outright 300 to one I saw that you on him I kind of chuckled a little bit I didn’t get all the way to the Market I didn’t know how to bet him but I think he is a viable DFS option uh can you go ahead and explain a little bit more sure yeah so I was looking for a lowcost guy who again I hate to uh you know beat this drum again and again but a guy who puts it in the Fairway you know an accurate guy off the te and now other guys that check that box um you know who who are cheap in on DraftKings this week Zack Johnson okay who has been good here for the last 55 years he’s played um you know he hits a lot of Fairways as well as Ben Kohl’s who um I think is someone who’s going to find his way into a lot of my my lineups this week but want to talk to you about Kelly craft 70% Fairway rate over the past 24 rounds that’s top 20 in this field uh ninth and strokes gained on approach over those 24 rounds among players playing in this field and 12th best in this field in greens and regulation uh not only that he’s been accurate with his irons top 20 Brad in proximity to the flag from the fair way and so the hope is here here’s the story I’m going to paint for you Kelly CRA hits a lot of Fairways he continues that accurate good solid iron play and he makes some putts which is asking a lot because Kelly craft is not a good putter but at 6600 I think you could do a lot worse I think Kelly craft is one of those guys who kind of like just has those flash rounds um which is kind of typical of the golfer who’s in the 300 to one range he’s 151 first round leader could be worth a Sprinkle there um Denny this was fun uh I know we’re looking forward to the Open Championship here in a couple weeks but before we get there I want to make sure we make a little bit of money so we have that extra spending cash everyone thank you for checking out going for the green be sure to go to nbcsports.com for more help with your Wagers for Denny Carter I’m Brad Thomas best of luck this week
